It's not typical to have five Breeders' Cup races that could decide Horse of the
Year, but that looks to be the case this year. The five races are the Classic,
Turf, Distaff, Sprint, and Dirt Mile.
Here is what is facing the horses who have a shot at landing racing's highest honor.
BRICKS AND MORTAR (Turf) - If he stretches out and
wins the Breeders' Cup Turf in his first attempt at a mile and a half and
concludes his year undefeated in six starts, five of them grade 1 stakes, it
would take a lot to deprive him of Horse of the Year, like a Code of Honor victory, especially since he has
reigned atop the NTRA weekly poll all year. That would give him victories at
Santa Anita, Arlington Park, Belmont Park, Churchill Downs, Fair Grounds, and
Gulfstream Park. But this year's BC Turf is not a particularly strong
field, especially with no Magical, and that could hurt him if he doesn't at least win impressively. However, he still will be up
against the English Derby winner, the grade 1 Dubai Sheema Classic and Northern
Dancer winner, and runner-up in the Canadian International, plus your usual
cast of U.S.-based grade 1 winners, none of which, like the Europeans, are major headliners.
CODE OF HONOR (Classic) - He looks to be the
only horse to have a chance at Horse of the Year coming out of the Classic.
McKinzie might get a look, but it's hard to imagine a horse who won three of
seven starts this year being Horse of the Year, despite what would be a
Breeders' Cup Classic-Whitney double. None of the other older horses in the
Classic have even a remote shot. If Code of Honor should beat the older horses
in the Classic, as well as several grade 1-winning 3-year-olds, including the
Preakness winner, it would be a resume of wins in the Breeders' Cup Classic,
Jockey Club Gold Cup, Travers Stakes, Dwyer Stakes, and Fountain of Youth
Stakes, and a second in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Florida Derby. That
is three grade 1 stakes at a mile and a quarter and two victories over older
horses. The forgotten 3-year-old right now could be Maximum Security if he follows
his Bold Ruler win with a victory in the Cigar Mile along with his wins in the
Florida Derby and Haskell Invitational, and finishing first in the Kentucky
Derby.
MIDNIGHT BISOU (Distaff) - You couldn't ignore
her eight-for-eight record this year -- all stakes and traveling all around the
country. A victory would give her stakes scores at Santa Anita, Belmont Park,
Saratoga, Monmouth Park, Oaklawn Park, and Sam Houston - that's six tracks in
five different states. And if Elate should run a big race in the Classic that
would add to her credentials. What would be against her is the fact that she
never faced males. Although past female Horses of the Year faced males, there
is one exception, and that is Azeri, who did not run against the boys until two
years after she was voted Horse of the Year, so there is precedent. The year
Azeri was voted Horse of the Year she won eight of her nine starts, all against
females. Then again, there was no competition for Horse of the Year that year,
especially when megabomb Volponi destroyed his field in the Classic, including
Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Haskell winner War Emblem. This year could be a
lot different.
MITOLE (Sprint) - It probably would
take a series of defeats by other contenders to give him a shot at the title.
But if he should beat this star-studded field of brilliant sprinters and add
that to his victories in the grade 1 Met Mile, Forego, Churchill Downs Stakes,
and grade 3 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap--ending the year with six victories in
seven starts--it would at least put him in the conversation. But sprinters are
up against it when it comes to Horse of the Year, although he did win the most
prestigious mile race in the country. It would be interesting to see if they
attempt to solidify his position by going for the Cigar Mile. That would put
him in rarified air, being the nation's best six-furlong horse, seven-furlong
horse, and miler. He probably would be considered that with a BC Sprint
victory, but winning the Met Mile and Cigar Mile would really boost his
reputation.
OMAHA BEACH (Dirt Mile)- If he were to pull
this off it would be one of the great comebacks in racing history. Here is the
Kentucky Derby favorite sidelined six months, missing two return engagements,
and winding up winning the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile and Santa Anita Sprint
Championship to go along with his victories in the Arkansas Derby and Rebel
Stakes. It probably still would take a win in the seven-furlong Malibu Stakes
at the end of the year to put him in the picture. That race would also be used
as a prep for the rich Pegasus World Cup that will come too late to do him any
good in the voting. Even if he doesn't get Horse of the Year honors, this would
have to go down as one of the most unusual and extraordinary campaigns we've
ever seen and would stamp him as something special.
Other scenarios - What if SISTERCHARLIE defeats Fleeting from the Aidan
O'Brien stable and Iridessa and Fanny Logan and other Euros, as well as several
top-class Americans? She would only be four-for-four this year, which probably
would not be enough to get her Horse of the Year. However, it would be her
seventh consecutive grade 1 victory, which is pretty amazing, and she may pick
up a vote or two, depending on what happens in the other races. On the other
hand, a defeat could possibly cost her the Filly and Mare Turf title if GOT STORMY should beat the boys in the
BC Mile. I'm not quite sure if UNI
has done enough, but her last was sensational.
The
most interesting scenario in terms of champion turf female is if FLEETING beats Sistercharlie in the
Filly and Mare Turf. Although I would never vote for a European with only one
start in this country, Fleeting has run an unlucky fourth in the Beverly D.,
which turned out to be one of her many horrible trips this year. After having
to steady along the inside going into the first turn she dropped way too far
back, some 20 lengths off the pace, and came running on strongly in the
stretch. I have never seen a horse encounter more traffic problems in one year
than this daughter of Zoffany. She could very easily have won the English Oaks,
Irish Oaks, Prix de l'Opera, Ribblesdale Stakes, and certainly the British
Champions Filly and Mare Stakes, in which she had the trip from hell. But she
has a huge turn of foot and always puts in that big late run. She may be the
best 2-for-12 horse I have ever seen.
Fleeting has a decent shot of beating Sistercharlie if she can finally
get some good luck and not get trapped again in a traffic jam. I also believe
that Sistercharlie's pacesetter Thais will benefit Fleeting as much as
Sistercharlie. So, yes, Fleeting does have a shot at the Eclipse Award if all
the pieces fall together for her. Sistercharlie will be tough as usual, but
this filly could prove to be a value play.
Even if
OMAHA BEACH doesn't get Horse of the
Year, if all the heavy hitters in the Sprint get beat and Omaha Beach wins the
Dirt Mile and Malibu, he could very well wind up the champion sprinter - an odd
accomplishment for the Kentucky Derby favorite. He could also wind up champion
3-Year-Old Male if Code of Honor and Maximum Security both get beat in their
respective races.
If
Dennis' Moment, Eight Rings, and Maxfield all get beat, which is highly
unlikely, do you give the championship to the winner, who would be a longshot
with minimal previous credentials, or do you give it to stay-at-home TIZ THE LAW off his sensational
Champagne victory and his undefeated record in two starts? Two-year-olds are
being named champions now with fewer and fewer starts.
