February 1st, 2010

 1

Buddy's Saint Bruce Levine

Saint Liam—Tuzia, by Blushing John

Staying sharp for debut in Fountain of Youth with pair of 5-furlong works in :59 3/5. Remsen form hasn’t held up, with subpar efforts by Homeboykris and Citrus Kid, but he did beat them easily and won with something left.

 2

Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert

Smart Strike—Private Feeling, by Belong to Me

If he debuts in San Felipe, it would give him only two Derby preps and keep the unknown dirt factor going. But he is a very late foal (May 27), has a good foundation, and Baffert is going to play it cool with him.

 3

Super Saver Todd Pletcher

Maria's Mon—Supercharger, by A.P. Indy

Pletcher’s horses all seem determined to get the lead, even late-closing Aikenite. He’s used his speed well, but that’s not the way you want to get him to the Derby. He’s nowhere near a race after vacation on the farm.

 4

Winslow Homer Tony Dutrow

Unbridled's Song—Summer Raven, by Summer Squall

Showed a good deal of professionalism in the Holy Bull, waiting patiently while boxed in along the rail. Dutrow didn’t exactly exude confidence sending him a flat mile, so expect further improvement going back to two turns.

 5

Eskendereya Todd Pletcher

Giant's Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew

It’ll be interesting to see how Pletcher juggles his 3-year-olds. Not much more to say about him than what was said last week. He is another who wound up on the lead in his last, despite never being close to lead prior to that race.

 6

Interactif Todd Pletcher

Broken Vow—Broad Pennant, by Broad Brush

He’s a gamble, considering Pletcher feels he’s a better horse on the grass. But with his pedigree and a victory already on dirt, the feeling is that he’s simply a very good horse and will somehow wind up in the Derby.

 7

Jackson Bend Nick Zito

Hear No Evil—Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat

Best part about the Holy Bull was that he wasn’t being pushed hard in the final sixteenth and did it all pretty much on his own. You can bet Zito has left a lot in the tank. Now we’ll just have to see how far he wants to go.

 8

William's Kitten Mike Maker

Kitten's Joy—Blush, by Menifee

Many look at him as the proverbial bridesmaid, always closing and never getting there, but he ran a big race in the Holy Bull, dropping back to one turn, and was running hard down the lane despite never changing leads.

9

Rule Todd Pletcher

Roman Ruler--Rockcide, by Personal Flag

Yet another Pletcher horse that apparently wants the lead. Obviously, something has to give, and Pletcher likely will try to teach these horses how to rate off the pace. This colt was right at the top of the list on the farm.

10

Tiz Chrome Bob Baffert

Tiznow—Woodland Shadow, by Woodman

We’ll find out more about him in this weekend’s Robert B. Lewis when he goes two turns for the first time and moves up in class against much better horses. He just needs to be running on well at the wire. Drilled a sharp five furlongs in :59 1/5.

11

American Lion Eoin Harty

Tiznow—Storm Tide, by Storm Cat

Harty bypassed the CashCall Futurity and gave him some time to prepare for the Lewis. He also will be stretching out to two turns for the first time, and a victory here will make him a serious Derby contender.

12

Ron the Greek Tom Amoss

Full Mandate—Flambe, by Fortunate Prospect

Had a tough time deciding whether to put him on or Maximus Ruler, who probably ran a better race in the LeComte considering how the race shaped up. But there were things to like about him other than his closing punch.

To participate, use your cursor to drag the selections on the left to the blank placeholders on the right. Once you have completed ranking all of the horses, submit your entries and compare your results to the rest of the community. A first place ranking will earn 12 points, second place receives 11 points, and so on.

153 Comments

Leave a Comment:

SSC

Steve - thought you might have moved Drosselmeyer up to the top dozen. He looked pretty good Sunday, don't you think?

01 Feb 2010 1:49 PM
Billy's Empire

Steve, great KDT update today. It was nice to see what the experts on the farms thought of these babies when they were young and before they were broken. I really like that they were so high on American Lion and Rule. Those guys see hundreds of horses each year, and for Rule, Super Saver, and American Lion to be 3 out of the top five speaks volumes for how these colts might turn out. Now, we play wait and see...

01 Feb 2010 2:39 PM
LACS70

You know, seeing William's Kitten on this list, I am impressed with the number of Kitten's Joy 3 year old offspring hitting the boards these days. Might land himself top siore honors this year.

01 Feb 2010 3:05 PM
Greaseball

I can see Dublin getting into the mix soon enough, and watchout for Drosselmeyer. He ran a nice race Sunday. Pulsion is another one who could be a runner. We have a long way to go, and I can see some unknown making a name for himself in the coming weeks.  

01 Feb 2010 3:47 PM
Tiznowbaby

Steve, can you tell us what is behind the vet scratch of Pulsion? What is going on?

01 Feb 2010 4:36 PM
josue555

Steve what you think about she be wild debut, you think she didn't handdle the dirt or was the wrong distance, also the Fountain of youth is looking like a mini breeders cup or kentucky derby race with all this great contenders in the same race. you think buddy's saint will have a good comeback or will do a she be wild performance?

01 Feb 2010 4:44 PM
Greg J.

FYI,

    Mr. Matz did an interview on XM radio Saturday, He said they plan to run Lentenor in an allowance race on the turf(There is one at Gulfstream on Feb.17th on the turf at 1 1/8 Miles), followed by a dirt race, and then maybe a dirt stakes.  He said the Derby was almost 100% out of the question, but the Preakness might not be. Whichever path they take, Wish nothing but the best!, Let's hope it all comes together...

01 Feb 2010 5:04 PM
imjds

Liked the way Drosselmeyer finished this week, and the young Winslow Homer pushing his way threw the small opening to get  there and then finish.

01 Feb 2010 5:04 PM
Horselover

Awesome update Haskin but I'm a fan of Bararo so my Derby Dozen would be all your including Lentenor. But love the update.

01 Feb 2010 5:42 PM
SlewStable

Pulsion   developed  a  cough.

01 Feb 2010 6:29 PM
hoofprintsandhorseplay

Pulsion was scratched because he coughed and when scoped they found mucus, so he is now being pointed to the Fountain of Youth.

Eightyfiveinafifty will crush the Whirlaway field on Saturday . Its just a matter of how far he'll win by.

Still don't see any of the Pletcher horses jumping up to win at 10 furlongs.

01 Feb 2010 6:36 PM
rilharreguy

I think a case can be made for Drosselmeyer being added to this list. His win over the weekend was very nice. I dont think there were any world beaters in that race, but Mott may have his hands on a winner here. I share Tiznobaby's same question. Can you tell us why the scratch of Pulsion? Is this a Biancone thing or is the horse injured?

01 Feb 2010 6:55 PM
Carrie

love the interactive name your own derby dozen! what fun!

01 Feb 2010 7:49 PM
brettzky99

Lookin at Lucky has done nothing wrong, but lots of questions with these other colt's.  My thought is that when push comes to shove in March, Colizeo will emerge as Pletcher's top prospect.  Sometimes a 9f maiden win is better indication than a mile prep.

01 Feb 2010 8:17 PM
marktoothaker

Say a comment from Patrick that Pulsion had a cough, hope he is ok certainly a interesting horse.

LACS70 great call on the Kittens Joy offsprings, Mr Ramsey deserves a lot of credit he has went above and beyond to prove him. Last fall he said he had 301 of them between 2 yr olds, yrl, and weanlings. I was in PA last weekend and the farm I visited had 8 Kitten Joys already foaled out. So he has it going on.

01 Feb 2010 8:47 PM
chris

Keep your eye on Lentenor. I saw him run at Gulfstream and he was pretty impressive. His future is definitely bright and he just might be divinely inspired.

01 Feb 2010 9:07 PM
No Respect

Why haven't you included one or two of Sheik Mohammed's horses for your Derby dozen?  Vale of York beats Lucky who you call a "Machine" and what about Al Zir a son of Medaglia d'Oro, a 1.6 mill purchase and a European racer now wintering in Dubai.  Also correct me if I am wrong but Tabasco Cat won a leg of the classics.  So how can Jackson Bend be short on stamina in his pedigree when he has already shown that he can go 1 1/16.  He shortened up for the Holy Bull!

01 Feb 2010 9:32 PM
Tony Russo

Looking at lucky ranks well above what we have seen to date .Unless a new face pops up he is home and cooled out. He has had some bad racing luck or he would be golden...

01 Feb 2010 10:17 PM
Don from Delaware

Well happy to see Winslow Homer (WH) in the top 5...I hope and believe there is alot more in his KD bound tank.....he is smart and a natural professional during racetimes...sofar

01 Feb 2010 10:55 PM
Johnny

Drosselmeyer sure looks like a nice horse to.

01 Feb 2010 10:58 PM
tcc

Steve:

There is some news that Lookin at Lucky was nominated to UAE Derby, have to wait and see if will run over there.

01 Feb 2010 11:11 PM
Citation

No Respect, Tabasco Cat won two legs of the Triple Crown, the Belmont and the Preakness. So I would say that a criticism of Jackson Bend's pedigree is rather silly.

01 Feb 2010 11:13 PM
Tiznowbaby

No Respect, Jackson Bend is by a son of Carson City out of a daughter of Tabasco Cat. Jackson Bend's half sister Garter Belt, by a son of A.P. Indy won at 8F and that's it. Not looking good to get the distance but you never know. He's a nice horse.

01 Feb 2010 11:24 PM
Usmaan

fair enough list so early in the season. In my opinion Lookin At Lucky has definitive class edge on all the other horse in the list.I am not sold on Buddy's Saint.I know lookin At Lucky hasn't race on dirt but i will still have him on top because for me none of the above horse have shown the ability to beat a consistantly brilliant horse like him.Having said that i will be closely looking at horses in fountain of youth.Right now imy personnal choice is a godolphin horse named Al Zir.He has run only three times in Europe as a Juvenile dominating two listed races before finishing third in a group one race in his last start.The fact that he has run only on grass doesn't bother me because he is by Medaglio'doro, so he has a strong dirt pedigree and godolphin trainer saeed bin suroor declared him as their derby horse last year which leads me to believe that they are very high on that horse.

02 Feb 2010 12:47 AM
trackjack

Steve,

Great update on the dozen.  As I mentioned last week, Drosselmeyer is one to keep an eye on.  His pedigree screams distance and his win Sunday was professional.  I especially liked the way he kicked on when clear of the others. To No Respect: Tabasco Cat won the Preakness and the Belmont in '94.

02 Feb 2010 2:18 AM
LDP

No Respect,

    How many Dubai prepped and based horses have ever won the Derby? That answer will tell you why he is not in the Derby Dozen.

02 Feb 2010 5:42 AM
hoofprintsandhorseplay

He probably left off Sheik Mohammed's Dubai based horses because NO Horse Will EVER WIN the Derby training half way around the world.

It takes way too much out of a young horse. It took trainers almost 10 years to figure out how to ship back to the USA after racing in Dubai and return with a winning race.

02 Feb 2010 6:34 AM
Rachel

No Respect: 1 1/16 is a far cry from 1 1/4 and 1 1/2.

Too bad about Piscatelli, but great that KD felt something was off and protected the horse...

Forgive me for being naive/ignorant, but why so many "coughs and fevers" in horse racing nowadays?

02 Feb 2010 6:57 AM
Fran Loszynski

You know I was going to post this comment Steve:

Afleet Express and Dublin, Afleet Again had a great race in Philly also now that he is wearing sunglasses (blinders)all for

Kentucky Derby-

and "wishing" Afleet of Angels Kentucky Oaks but she has only raced once. Staying true to the Afleet Alex kids!

02 Feb 2010 7:52 AM
trebloc

Steve,

Any idea how long SS was at the farm and any thoughts on what race Winstar/Pletcher are aiming SS towards?  I did see that he had a nice work over this past weekend.

Thanks.

02 Feb 2010 7:59 AM
Stella

I like "Tempted To Tapit".  He seems a little green but if they can get him to harness his speed and rate just a little he could be extremely dangerous.  

02 Feb 2010 8:44 AM
Trackman

I thought Drosselmeyer had a very easy trip Sunday, however, i did like the patience he showed while waiting for his cue from Kent Desormeaux.

02 Feb 2010 8:51 AM
Billy's Empire

I think it would be awesome if Matz ran Lentenor back in the Preakness, so he could go and win the race his brother should of won back in 2006. Let's hope he gets to the starting gate.

I will not bet any horse to win the Derby that is coming from Synthetics. So, I hope Baffert gets his show on the road, or I am betting the winner of the Wood Memorial, whomever it may be... Hopefully Buddy's Saint or Eightfiveandfifty!!

Rachel: It is Flu SEASON, and the government forgot to give the horses their h1n1 vaccine...

02 Feb 2010 9:12 AM
Footlick

Rachel- I agree with your first two comments.  Even horse that can get 9 furlongs well end up faltering in the last eighth.  And I knew Piscatelli ran too badly.  I'm glad they found it and are giving him time off.

As far a coughs and fevers, I'm assuming they are caused by viruses and they are just very insidious.  In Europe, every year someone's stable had been decimated by coughs and fevers.  Al least trainers now scratch the horses instead of running them.

02 Feb 2010 9:54 AM
Footlick

LDP-very true.  Until they figure out how to do that, and they may never do it from Dubai, none of their horses should be on the list.  It has nothing to do with the talent of the horse, or the talent of the trainer, but just the huge obstacle of doing all your preparation from Dubai.  It is a huge task, logistically.

02 Feb 2010 9:56 AM
Karen in Indiana

O.K., so Thiskyhasnolimit and Piscitelli are off my list & Soaring Empire and Discreetly Mine are on. I do like Discreetly Mine because of his pedigree, but have to keep him low because of his trainer. I think Mineshaft is under-rated, he doesn't have flashy winners, but they are steady and durable.

02 Feb 2010 10:59 AM
Steve Haskin

I'm holding up on Drosselmeyer until after the Lewis Saturday. I've liked him for a while, but with Pulsion scratched he wasnt up against much, and there was no reason to knock one of the others off the Top 12. Also, I already have three WinStar horses in the Top 12, so I would like to see a little more from him.

I never criticized Jackson Bend's pedigree, just said there were question marks. If I thought he had no shot to get 1 1/4 miles I wouldnt have him ranked #7. Tabasco Cat alone is not going to get him 1 1/4 miles, and his tail-female family has a lot of speed. Right now, he looks more like a 1 1/16 or 1 1/8-mile horse. He's going to have to use his talent to stretch out, and we'll see in the next couple of races how much he has.

02 Feb 2010 11:42 AM
TBRFans

The Robert B Lewis stakes this weekend should see everyone's lists shuffled around a bit, since 2 of the runners (Tiz Chrome, American Lion) appear on a lot of them.  Caracortado's at the top of my list thus far (and I'm probably the only one with him at #1).  I see him more as the "2nd coming of Snow Chief" - speedy, can probably get 9F maybe not 10, with an obscure pedigree. As big a Tiznow-baby fan as I am, I hope Caracortado takes it and gets some respect from industry listmakers!

02 Feb 2010 12:00 PM
TeePee

Would be great to see D. Wayne involved in a Triple Crown again. They can't be serious about Lookin At Lucky in Dubai.

02 Feb 2010 12:00 PM
Footlick

Jackson Bend reminds me of Plugged Nickle at this time.

02 Feb 2010 12:02 PM
Mitch Kahn aka Kid Crepello

Steve:

I think you missed a sleeper in

UptownCharlyBrown. The Sam Davis will tell the tale...Kid Crepello

02 Feb 2010 12:24 PM
JerryMac

Maximus Ruler ran much better than it appears. Hope he goes foward next start I think he has big future. You will be putting him top 10 next time.

02 Feb 2010 1:14 PM
Jimmy T

Steve a good start however you a missing one from your list. What about Uptowncharlybrown. He may not have faced the big dogs yet.....He will soon enough and is a monster on the track destroying the competition. So far he should be on the radar based on performance along with Buddy's Saint and Lookin at Lucky. Uptown charlybrown.... Beautiful horse that can flat out run!

02 Feb 2010 1:18 PM
mg

Since it seems a lot of people were impressed by Drosselmeyer race it's amazing no one mentioned Mott's other winner on the same card - Comic Marvel.Frankel was high on this horse and although the time was significantly slower than Drosselmeyer's heat he had a terrible break, circled the field and kicked home like a good one.Old Bobby had a pretty good eye. Certainly bears watching.

02 Feb 2010 1:34 PM
Householder

Not sure what was behind Buddy's Saint in his last starts.  I have a feeling that Lookin at Lucky has been facing tougher.  The decided class edge.

02 Feb 2010 1:43 PM
It Aint Easy being good

So Steve if Lentenor can win another race will you put him in the top 12. He looked very game last race and distance isnt an issue. I truly think he is going to be a star but will have to start entering some big races soon if he is going to get in. I forgot what horse last year barely got in I think it was dunkirk.

02 Feb 2010 1:44 PM
horse playa

I watched a really nice maiden win for pletcher at Santa Anita ,"Land of the Giants".  Did anyone else see what I did?

02 Feb 2010 2:18 PM
Billy's Empire

Lookin At Lukcy

It was free to nominate to the UAE Derby, so I am sure a lot of trainers and owners nominated, with no intention on running. Kind of like Zenyatta in the Beldame!! ZZZZZZZING!

02 Feb 2010 3:09 PM
Silly Billy

Billy's empire--

You say you're involved in the industry?I doubt it with all of that bunk you posted.No wonder you suck as a handicapper.No one was going to beat Bernardini that day in the Preakness.

02 Feb 2010 3:11 PM
SSC

UPTOWNCHARLIEBROWN -  is over rated and over hyped. Hasn't beaten anyone at all yet, only run at Tampa and he has only shown he can run 7f. Based on the probable starters for the Sam Davis he looks like he will finish behind Rule, Middle of the Nite and Tempted to Tapit. Nice horse but no where near the class of these.

02 Feb 2010 3:16 PM
CraigJ

Is this a list of where horses stand now or more for potential.  5 horses of the top 12 are running in the FOY.  Not all 5 will be in the Derby Gate.  After this Saturday.  Dave In Dixie will be on everyone's top 12.

02 Feb 2010 3:47 PM
trebloc

On January 25th woodbine4ever wrote, "Don't think winslow homer is going to make it to the Derby. Unbridled Song's just aren't sound enough".  

Who do you like in the Derby?

02 Feb 2010 4:30 PM
Jimmy T

SSC- We will see what happens in the Sam Davis. I am not saying he is not beatable. All horses are. Behind 5 horses I don't think so. The longer the better for this son of Limehouse. Will beat at least 3 of the 5 horses you listed if not all of them.

02 Feb 2010 4:32 PM
L

I am sorry to see any horse off the trail due to injury but this is getting to be a pattern with Unbridled Song offspring.

Not meaning to be argumentative, I genuinely can't recall but can anyone name me 1 Unbridled Song Derby contender who didn't get knocked off the trail due to injury during the preps and made it into the starting gate on Derby Day?

I know, there is Eight Belles but there we have the ultimate tragedy situation so setting her aside, any of the colts make it yet?

02 Feb 2010 4:41 PM
mdfanofracing

Two down, Winslow Homer and Piscatelli are both out of the Derby. Im so damn dissapointed. I really thought this would be Rick Porters year to win. Im still gonna hang onto Ron the Greek, who I was very impressed with, Lentenor and also Drosselmeyer. As of right now, its anyones race.

02 Feb 2010 4:48 PM
Carlos in Cali

First Dude is one to watch and with that pedigree he will only improve with seasoning & longer distances.Since he just broke his maiden,I hope his handlers will not push him too hard w/the classical case of 'Derby fever'.I'm sure both Dale Romans & Donald Dizney will do the right thing with this homebred.

Tempted to Tapit ran-away from the field in his last on an off track,but he could be a good one & I won't be surprised if he takes the Sam F.Davis in hand.

Too bad Winslow Homer is off the Derby trail...another promising prospect's Spring potential cut short(Take Control).I hope it's not a trend like it became last year and therefore we won't see a watered-down 3yo male-crop running in the Triple Crown series and thru the summer.Yes,I think RA took the Preakness/Haskell simply because top 3yo colts like IWR,QR & The Pamplemousse were sidelined.

02 Feb 2010 5:15 PM
Karen in Indiana

Winslow Homer's out. He's another Unbridled's Song that has had a fracture. I didn't even bother putting him on my list to begin with just because that was expected (not hoped for - it's not the horse's fault he has bad genetics).

02 Feb 2010 5:17 PM
Dona

Another one bites the dust! Too bad about Winslow Homer but that's one reason why I can't really get excited about any of the current Derby possibles, Lentenor not withstanding. If and it really looks like if, Lentenor has the money to qualify and Matz thinks he's ready, he really has to be considered in the very top. Why? We've all watched and followed him since birth and he seems to fill the bill in all our expectations. I, among others see a joy in his attitude with a serious will to win. I don't see that in the other colts, yet. Lookin at Lucky maybe running out of steam, he's had a hard racing career for one so young. I think I'll chill and wait untill late March or early April and see who's still standing. Day to day racing, with up coming important stakes are enough for me, so I'll keep a weary eye out for the Derby hopefuls and hold my breath for their safety.

silly billy--  your name fits. Your opinion about Bernardini means diddle squat. You don't know what Barbaro was going to do but I bet you their are plenty of really good turf writers out there that thought we were going to see a triple crown winner in 2006 and his name was Barbaro. The point is mute because he never had the chance to prove it. History is just that, history. What might have been resides only in us and plenty of us think no way could or would Bernardini beat Barbaro that day. Sadly, As it turns out, we were right.

02 Feb 2010 5:20 PM
marktoothaker

L and Karen so right on Unbridled Song, he is the darling of the sales rings but all you hear is that they dont stay sound. Mr Porter is great for the game so I was really hoping this was his Derby horse. Sire really does need a horse to hang around a while to take him to the next level.

02 Feb 2010 5:53 PM
tcc

L

Dunkirk made it into the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

02 Feb 2010 5:55 PM
It Aint Easy being good

Great point dona on bernadini. Barbaro was on a 5 race win streak I might be wrong but maybe 6 and he won the derby with ease. Ok with winslow homer out of the derby 12 steve you have to put lentenor in just based on fan base and pedigree. Come on! Unbridle bell=no chance for derby day!

02 Feb 2010 5:55 PM
SSA

Jimmy T - I only named 3 horses that would finish ahead of Uptowncharliebrown - not 5. I will have in in my super to finish 4th. Good Luck.

02 Feb 2010 6:01 PM
Carlos in Cali

Oh..dona

Seriously?...Lentenor has a 'serious will to win'...pffft.He's won what,1 out of 3-4 races so far.He might turn-out to be a good one,we'll see,but your blatant bias towards Barbaro & his creepy "let's see if we can duplicate him siblings" is getting the best of you right now.Everyone anticipates the next TC winner right after the Derby ...except when Giacomo & Mine That Bird won. lol

02 Feb 2010 6:08 PM
Kim

L, there have been several Unbridled's Songs that have made the Derby. The ones I can think of off the top of my head are Songandaprayer (in 2001), Domestic Dispute (2003), Value Plus (2004), Song of the Sword (2004), and Dunkirk (2009). There may be others that I'm missing (also, I'm not counting Eight Belles, per your request).

02 Feb 2010 6:17 PM
Footlick

People just have to figure out how to breed soundness into him.  It means that people are going to have to work at it, but the horse throws so many talented horses, I think it would be worth the effort.

Maybe some South American blood or German blood?

02 Feb 2010 8:32 PM
Matthew W

Tiz Chrome looked like any kind here last time out---would think he'll be live in his next out and so on and so on...Baffert's holding a strong hand, a real 1/2 punch, ifya know what I mean!

02 Feb 2010 9:21 PM
Forbidden Apple

I don't really care who was behind Buddy's Saint, just remember that he was green and only galloping to his victories! With only one crop to his name, I believe that the racing world will see several future stars by Saint Liam. Take a look at his pedigree, Buddy can run all day.

I said before that Winslow Homer looked to be only jogging in his last race, the final quarter was turtle like. Jackson Bend is a slow Calder horse, good luck with him in your stable.

Michael Matz is a very patient horseman who will not press Lentenor into the KY Derby.

With a $10 million Dubai World Cup and a $2billion facility, I am expecting a few USA based horses to try and steal the oil money in the desert this year. A good turf horse could pull it off in the UAE Derby since they are now running on a synthetic surface.

Bernardini was an average horse who got good at the right time.

02 Feb 2010 9:25 PM
animallover

What a heartbreaker that Winslow Homer is now off the trail. I was looking forward to seeing more of him.

02 Feb 2010 9:52 PM
Dona

Carlos in Cali, sorry you didn't know Giacomo and Mind That Bird weren't unbeaten when they won the Derby, so the odds on both colts  reflected the handicappers opinion. Did they win? Sure, cause on any given day almost anything can happen. As far as your analysis of Lentenor, you obviously didn't watch the same colt as everyone else. Jason Shindler wrote "he won impressively". Lentenors first race, he was stopped twice, bottled up and still came in 3rd. His 2nd race, he was in tight at the rail, couldn't get out and was too far off the pace. He showed what he had in store for us by getting 2nd under less than stellar conditions. Since you obviously need analytical tutoring to read a race as it unfolds, I suggest you watch the bloodhorse replays and read the writers description of what transpired during the race. Oh yeah, being a little more informed on the breeding of La Ville Rouge might help you over come your creepy feelings about the entire process. It is common knowledge Mr and Mrs Jackson, more than anything want a filly from their beloved mare and yes, they want it to be a full sister to Barbaro. Racing Gods willing, we fans hope that comes true. Everyone has been very sympathetic and respectful due to the loss of the their long awaited filly on December 24, 2009 and I ask no less from you. That is, if you are a fan of horse racing or horses in general. Being ignorant about racing is nothing to be ashamed about and can be remedied with a little effort but boarish behaviour is another matter.          

02 Feb 2010 10:04 PM
Coldfacts

Hoofprintsandhorseplay,

I took the liberty of using a capital H at the start of your posting name.

Below is an extract form your post dated (02 Feb 2010)  

“He probably left off Sheik Mohammed's Dubai based horses because NO Horse Will EVER WIN the Derby training half way around the world”

Since your post did contain the word NEVER, I was not provided with the opportunity to remind you to - Never Say Never.

I have seen  postings from other with similar opinions  and I remain convinced that those who harbor these opinions have not examined the cold facts. The reason a horse trained in Dubai has not won the derby is simply because none have been good enough to date.

In the 2009 KD, Regal Ransom who was trained in Dubai for the race finished 8th.  He clearly did to effectively get the derby distance as he was second to the top of the stretch and although he battle on gamely in the straight he was one pace to the line. He finished ahead of the eventual favorite Friesan Fire 19th and the celebrated Dunkirk 11th. In fact, Regal Ransom finished ahead of twelve horses and only one of the twelve was trained in Dubai i.e., Desert Party. The big question is - did Regal Ransom lose because he was prepared in Dubai for the race? Based on your opinion the answer would be yes. Eleven of the twelve horses that finished behind him were prepared for the race in the US. To what would you attribute their loss?

Godolphin’s best finish to date in the KD is 6th with China Visit. The trip from Dubai does not affect these as much as you think. If you know the story of 1971 Derby winner Canonero II then you would be less pessimistic about the chances of the Dubai based starters.

I assure you when Godolphin has a starter that is good enough they will win the derby as they have won races all over the world. Training and shipping horses thousands of mile to race competitively is a routine they have perfected. Do not forget that Godolphin is big on turning dreams into reality.

NB: I think Vale Of York will be their first winner if he remains healthy. I see no colt in the US that can match stride with him.

He has already beaten the champion 2YO Lookin At Lucky. What was most impressive about that victory is the fact that he was the only horse that came to the top of the stretch in hand. If he had clear passage, he would have won by at least five.

02 Feb 2010 11:20 PM
Usmaan

somebdy made a point that Lookin At Lucky is pre entered in the UAE derby and he would't actually go there. I totally disagree, I think he has a very agressive ownership and he is trained by Bob baffert who likes taking his horses to Dubai.I think there is only one week between the Florida derby and the world cup day, which means thatthey have to make a choice between those two races. My prediction will be that Lookin At Lucky will go to Dubai with so much money on the line, especially the when UAE deby wil be run on Tapita Surface. I am hoping that happens because i know vale of York will run in that race and intersting to see how Looking and Lucky and Vale of York run against eachother especially after that Breeders Cup drama.

03 Feb 2010 12:35 AM
Coldfacts

Steve,

Your derby dozen is solid. However, the majority of your selections may fall victims to derby history and historic trends.

Buddy’s Saint, Winslow Homer, Tiz Chrome & American Lion are all sired by Breeders Cup winner. In spite of their excellent abilities, they are from a category of sires  that  have a strained relationship with the derby. Unbridled is the only Breeders Cup Classic winner that has sired a derby winner form a possible pool of 17 classic winners. Cigar, Sunday Silence and Arcangues were not included in the 17. Will Tiznow, Saint Liam & Unbridled Song succeed where the likes of A.P. Indy, Skip Away, Alphabet Soup, Awesome Again, Cat Thief, Alysheba have failed?

Luckin At Lucky, Maximus Ruler, Interactif, Jackson Bend and Rule – Could be victims of an historic trend established by the Nasrullah/Bold Ruler sire line. Will 2010 commence the decline of the Raise A Native/Mr. Prospector sire line? This sire line produced the winners of  7 of 10 derbies contested between 2000 and 2009. The Nasrullah/Bold Ruler sire line was responsible for the winners of 7 of the 10 derbies contested between 1970 and 1979. After that period the Nasrullah/Bold Ruler line went MIA with only one win in 24 years. If this trend can be used as a measure, then no horses from the Raise A Native/Mr. Prospector sire line will win the 2010 derby. The Raise A Native/Mr. Prospector sire line reached its highest point during 2009 producing the Melbourne Cup & Breeder Cup Classic winners. It is due to come back to earth.

Super Saver – He has no chance. His sire is the only derby winning sire on your list and this fact must be respected. However, this positive is negated by his dam sire A. P. Indy who has a horrible record as a derby sire and derby broodmare sire. There is no excuse he has sires 14 racing crops and has a broodmare band in excess of 160 comprising some of the best mare to have graced the track. He is not a great derby sire or broodmare sire and he really requires a super saver for this aspect of his legacy.

Eskendereya – This colt’s suggest derby failure. His sire was bred to almost 200 mares in the US in 2007. If Eskendereya is the product of an early cover he might have a shot of being a better than average horse. Giant’s Causeway is one of the 100 sons of Storm Cat that has entered the breed shed in the US. To date not one has sires the winner of a Triple Crown race. I cannot see this brilliant but abused son of Storm Cat producing a derby winner. His dam sire Seattle Slew produced a broodmare band of over 440 and to date only one has been associated with the winner of a Triple Crown race. Eskendereya is a product of sire line and a dame line that have extremely dismal records in the derby. I will wager heavily that Eskendereya will not break the trend.

Williams Kitten – I am a fan of his late sire El Prado. This arm of the Northern Dancer sire line unlike the Storm Cat arm has produced a number of outstanding horses. However, his dam was sired by a grandson of Storm Cat. The Storm Cat broodmare line has a strained association with the derby and in light of this kitten will not smell the roses on the 1st Saturday in May.

Ron The Geeek – Sired by one of A.P Indy’s 54 plus son at stud. The Nasrullah/Bold Ruler sire line is overdue for a derby win and I think this colt has the credentials. If you liked 2009 3rd place Derby finisher Musket Man, then RTG appear to be better. Ron the Greek dam is a full sister to the dam of Musket Man. No ordinary colt closes from last to first while losing 5 to 6 lengths on the final turn. His performance in the Lecomte is the best performance by a 3YO colt to date. He really should be ranked #1. Hid sire Full Mandate was produced from a Deputy Minister G1 winning mare.  Deputy Minister was broodmare sire of Belmont winners Rags To Riches, Jazil & Sarava. He was also broodmare sire of BCC winner Curlin. So what we have in Ron the Greek is a colt whose sire is a product two major stamina influence.

03 Feb 2010 12:35 AM
Coldfacts

I noted your comments on the exclusion of BCJ winner Vale Of York. I am interested to know where he would be positioned on your list. I am of the opinion that no colt in the US can beat him. His pedigree is very interesting and he displayed the heart of a champion in winning the BCJ. He shipped in from either France or Dubai. He made is synthetic track debut in the BCJ. In the race he was checked at the top of the stretch; had to be steadied and then check off Piscitelli and Noble’s Promise before rallying through a rapidly closing gap to gain victory. Only the very good ones overcome such adversities and win.  He is inbred to full brothers Kris & Diesis who had a combined 22 starts with 17 wins included 8 graded victories. Could he turn out to be like a horse you featured recently? The great Damascus was inbred to full brothers Pharamond & Sickle both by (Phalaris/Selene). I can bet a lot of your supports are not aware that the last two Triple Crown winners were produced from broodmares that were inbred to siblings. Seattle Slew’s dam My Charmer was inbred to full sisters Striking & Busher both by (War Admiral/Baby League). Affirmed’s dam Won’t Tell You was inbred to full bothers Fighting Fox & Gallant Fox both (Sir Galahad/Marguerite) and Bull Dog & Sir Galahad both by (Teddy/Plucky Liege) Big Brown’s dam Mien is inbred to full sibling Thong & Lt. Stevens both by (Nantallah/Rough Shod) Does inbreeding to sibling impact the quality of off springs? I am not a pedigree expert and really do not know. However when I observer a quality horse with this characteristic I jump on board.

It will take a special horse to win the derby being prepared in Dubai and I think Vale Of York is the one. He has shown he will perform in spite of adversities.

03 Feb 2010 12:42 AM
Slew

Winslow is out...Take Control is out....I'm sticking with Ron the Greek.  As good as Maximus Ruler looks and runs, Ron still beat him.  I'm looking forward to see who's still in the running come April...time to breed for stamina..it seems to have withered away in this generation.  We seem to be talking about promising colts each year who succumb to injuries too soon. Still waiting to see how the fillies shape up.  She Be Wild was not promising in her first start this year.

03 Feb 2010 7:54 AM
derbyhat

pounced di 9 1 11 3 6.gsv 75.69 speed 12 stamina 15 traids 13 20 16 best nubers i have seen in past 20 years

03 Feb 2010 8:33 AM
Rachel

Wow, can you believe it? an Unbridled Song kid with unsoundness problems? Who would have thought it...

03 Feb 2010 8:50 AM
Rachel

oops, typo, I meant Unbridled's Song.

He does have a few older runners, e.g. Honest Man, Awesome Ashley and I think Thorn Song, is he still running this year?

03 Feb 2010 9:26 AM
Footlick

Just for the record- Eventually a horse will win the Derby from Dubai.  And I don't think the horse has to be bred for the dirt.  Just extremely talented, peaking in May and bred to run 10-12 furlongs, which our horses aren't.  Arcangues won the BCC on dirt, and he was purely turf bred.  It was a surprise, but when the horse decided to run his race, he was extremely classy and loved  distance of ground.  Sakhee ran second in the BCC on dirt and he was also purely turf bred, but extremely classy.  Cold Facts is right in the fact that they just haven't had the right horse yet.

03 Feb 2010 9:53 AM
Karen in Indiana

Coldfacts, to add to what you said about Regal Ransom - after watching his races before the Derby last year, I thought he was one of theirs to watch. As you stated, he actually did very well in the Derby. And he did very well when his races were shortened up later in the year.

03 Feb 2010 10:04 AM
Footlick

derbyhat- he does have a great pedigree.

03 Feb 2010 11:28 AM
Footlick

Rachel- that's why I say they have to be careful what they breed to him.  Just breeding to get a big sales check isn't helping him or the breed.  Breed soundness into his offspring by getting stamina laden, sturdy bloodlines........ if we have any left in the US-lol!  Otherwise as I said, start getting him crossed with German and South American influences.  He seems to stamp alot of his offspring, so it's crucial to find mares who will impart those traits without dulling the talent he gives his offspring.  It's alot of work and research, but breeders used to do that before the advent of computer programs- no slam on breeder's intended.  It's just the technological age we live in.

03 Feb 2010 11:33 AM
Steve Haskin

Vale of York obviously is a very game talented horse. If you were making out a top 12 list every week starting in January, tell me how many different comments you can write about him each week without sounding repititious, especially considering you will not be provided with one bit of information about him and how he is training, or even IF he is training. I have nothing against a horse coming from Dubai -- I loved Desert Party last year, but this is the first year they will not have had a dirt race. I plan on having him in the Top 12, but not this early. I have nothing to say about him.

03 Feb 2010 11:38 AM
AnneM

Thorn Song and Awesome Ashley are two of the few Unbridled's Song that seem sound and have had long racing careers.

03 Feb 2010 11:42 AM
It Aint Easy being good

Cold facts arent you the one that said piscatelli would dominate last week how did that turn out for you? I agree though thas some day sakhee will have a horse that can compete. Last year once desert party was in slot 19 I knew he was doomed. I think Ron the Greek is impressive but cant stand the name!

03 Feb 2010 11:47 AM
Rachel

Billy's Empire: H1N1, funny, funny.

Footlick, thanks.

Carlos in Cali: You'd be surprised at the folks who have Lentenor on their top 10 list...I was very surprised...but NONE are as savvy as our own SH!!!

03 Feb 2010 11:51 AM
Billy's Empire

Usmann, Bob B said he wants to run Lookin at Lucky on the dirt, so why and the heck would he ship him Half Way around the world to run on a syntetic, 6 weeks before the Derby? It would be one thing if he was stabled there, but Bob wants to win the KY derby, not the UAE Derby. C'mom!

03 Feb 2010 11:53 AM
Footlick

I always thought Bernadini was a talented horse.  I always thought Barbaro was a talented horse.  Barbaro was a very sad story, but why slight Bernadini?  IMO, neither were world beaters, just very good horses.  Can anybody seriously say that Bernadini couldn't have beaten Barbaro in the Preakness?  No.  And Lentenor ran a very nice race in his last race, but it was a turf maiden, guys.  Let's wait and see a little more before we call him a Derby contender.  As far as Dona's assessment of Looking for Lucky, he expends less energy in his races than most two year olds do, so I think an injury or illness would stop him much more than being worn out from his two year old year.  Just my opinions, guys.  I know Barbaro is sacrosanct to many of you.

03 Feb 2010 12:07 PM
SSA

Steve, with Offlee Wild being the leading sire of 2 yr olds in 2009, why don't we see any more of his offspring as Derby contenders.Are any in even the top 25??

03 Feb 2010 12:09 PM
Footlick

It Ain't Easy being good- What kind of statement is that considering the horse was injured?  I thought he had a great chance of winning too.  After he ran last, I figured something had to be wrong with him- and there was.  That's not Cold facts fault and you can't hold the horse being injured against him.

03 Feb 2010 12:29 PM
josue555

I really don't see Vale of York winning the derby or any triple crown race, you tell me the santa anita derby them we talk about it. about lookin at lucky going to dubai will be only to venge his only lost and make a triump return and vale of york out of the derby trail. plus remember the dubai horses got school by summer bird and regal ransom never meet quality road.

03 Feb 2010 12:38 PM
Footlick

Billy- I agree.  I remember when the Arlington Million and they thought it could be used as a prep for the Arc.  Unfortunately, ne serious Arc contender was going to ship to Arlington to prep at 10 furlongs on American turf for the 12 furlong Arc.  It still became sucessful, but the same reasoning would apply to shipping Looking at Lucky.  It just doesn't make sense.

03 Feb 2010 1:01 PM
Carlos in Cali

Rachel

Yup,I've noticed.Obviously those who have Lentenor on their 'lists' right now are thinking with their hearts,not heads.To each his own.

03 Feb 2010 1:11 PM
tcc

Steve:

Baffert has said he'll run Lookin at Lucky either at Santa Anita in March or "out of town,"

03 Feb 2010 1:33 PM
Tiznowbaby

SSA, Offlee Wild was leading sire off the stregth of She Be Wild's win in the BCJF. His get earned $1.9 millin and she accounted for $1.3 million. He had some other stakes winners but nothing you would currently consider a leading Derby candidate.

(and I know you asked Steve and I just jumped in. Sorry)

03 Feb 2010 1:57 PM
Householder

Looks like the Robert B. Lewis may come up wet?  Tiznows in the rain?  60% chance of showers...Grapevine closed...etc. etc.

03 Feb 2010 3:03 PM
Householder

What a treat.  We get to see the Lewis and Blind Luck run in the Las V the same day.  

03 Feb 2010 3:14 PM
SSA

Tiznowbaby - thanks  makes a lot of sense. I guess he has Middle of the Nite as a possibilty. Saw him listed in one of Steve's articles, but clearly not a serious candidate at this point.

03 Feb 2010 4:23 PM
rilharreguy

Steve, I share the same thoughts as Coldfacts. Vale of York should be on the list, as I stated after last weeks Derby Dozen. Your reasoning for not including him on your list seem very thin and oddly misguided. Just because you cant say much about a horse you dont put him in your top 12? What about Lookin at Lucky? He wont start until at least March, and will likely have no dirt form to speak of prior to Kentucky. Yet you keep him perched at #2 on the list. So just when do you think Vale will be worthy? Or is it that you really do not believe he is a strong candidate. If so please explain.

03 Feb 2010 4:27 PM
It Aint Easy being good

Ok footlick your right but still I though piscatelli was overrated. You cant count on these synthetic horses that translate to dirt you had one horse to do it and that was pioneer of the nile I truly think that synthetics to dirt is not easy to do. Your derby horse will def. not be one that preps over synthetics course I can put a "coldfacts guarantee on that" lol thats what he said about piscatelli ok i will let it go!

03 Feb 2010 4:38 PM
Usmaan

Steve I totally agree with you on Vale of York.And. I watched him race as a two year old and i knew he will make an impact at some point in his career which he dis in the last two races in his two year old year.But steve are right you cannot place him in that list right now especially when his first start on the dirt is expected to be in the Derby.I think the issue with Godolphin is that they are so spread out around the world that its hard for them to point their top horses towards one specific race.For example everybody is talking about Vale of York as their top contender in the derby but he is not their best three old. Their best three old is a horse named Passion for Gold who was recently named a close second best two year old. In his last start he won The Group one Saint Cloud in France easily by seven lengths going 10 furlongs.After that race his rider Frankie Dettorri said that he is by far the best two year old in that he has ridden.He is by Medagliod O'ro so he has a strong pedigree if they decide to run him on the dirt.By agian because of their global operation we may not see him in the States. I think they will run him in the English derby.If anyone wants to follow godolphin horses i suggest they sould visit godolphin.com. They will find detailed information about all of their horses on this website.

03 Feb 2010 5:47 PM
Footlick

Usmaan- Passion for Gopld's race in the Saint Cloud was hot.  I hope he progresses, because it was extremely impressive.

03 Feb 2010 6:32 PM
elliott

Steve,

I don't think Todd is thinking Interactiff, but he might get his shot. Ooutside of Winstar horses, I like lucky, eskendereya, and jackson.....Don't forget about Winstar Fantasy Derby @ www.winstarfarm.com. thx

03 Feb 2010 7:28 PM
Householder

Looking at Lucky will be in the San Felipe.  Baffert reportedly left him off the training track during the recent deluge.  

03 Feb 2010 7:36 PM
brettzky99

Coldfacts,

Maybe a typo but El prado was the grandsire, not the sire of Williams Kitten, who is obviously by Kitten's Joy.  However, your elimination of Lookin at Lucky baffles me.  He is, in fact from the Prospector sire line, and Nasrullah is bred well out into the female tails of his sire and dam. Don't know how your analysis makes sense? I do, of course agree with your Storm Cat assesment.  Always thought the Causeway's were overated, and poor value. Maybe the Green Monkey progeny can save the Storm Cat name--maybe not.

03 Feb 2010 8:42 PM
John H Mayo

Steve you will be lucky to have two starters on  the first day of May

03 Feb 2010 9:18 PM
Uptown Fan

Where wil Uptowncharlybrown be on this list after he wins the Sam F Davis?

03 Feb 2010 10:08 PM
Coldfacts

Householder,

I like looking at Lucky a lot. However, he is not by pick to win. His pedigree top and bottom has dominated the Triple Crown races over the last 20 years. However, the more I evaluate him the more it becomes apparent he will not be the 2010 derby winner.

His sire Smart Strike is the broodmare sire of the 2009 Derby winner Mine That Bird. I have researched 60 years of Derby history and the broodmare sire of the derby winner in one year has never sire the derby winner the following year.

The reverse occurred between 1957 and 1958; Bull Lea sired the 1957 Derby winner Iron Liege and was the broodmare sire of the 1958 derby winner Tim Tam. It appears only Bull Lea could have achieved this feat as he was a phenomenal sire. He sire three derby winners between 1948 and 1957 i.e., Citation, Hill Gail and Iron Liege. He is the only stallion in last 60 years that has sire three derby winners.

NB: Iron Liege is one of two derby winners whose pedigree reflects inbreeding to siblings. The other is Count Turf. Vale Of York's a pedigree reflects a very close inbreeding to siblings and he is very good.

Join me on the wagon.

04 Feb 2010 12:36 AM
LDP

Coldfacts,

    If your talking about the VofY bandwagon, maybe you need to look at a statistic even more daunting that the brood mare sire one you presented us. That would be that NO, ZIP, NATTA, NIL....NO Duabai based horses has EVER won the Derby. At least the broodmare sire double has happened, this hasn't.

04 Feb 2010 6:20 AM
LDP

Footlick,

    How do you think Curlin with an Unbridled Song mare would work? I can't think of any top fillies that have made it to the breeding shed, but I think Curlin's soundness on top of the brilliance and speed that Unbridled Song can produce would be a nice match.

04 Feb 2010 6:26 AM
gailg

So many colts this year with great potential! However, I have to root for my sentimental favorites: Afleet Express, Dublin, Lentenor (if he goes) and Rule as his dam is Funny Cide's 1/2 sister! I owe Funny Cide for making me a fan of this sport.

04 Feb 2010 7:00 AM
JerseyBoy

Excellent list, Steve. But my pick for the Derby at this point is Tahitian Warrior. I think he is the most talented of the bunch. I also suspect that Lookin At Lucky is a miler.

04 Feb 2010 8:36 AM
Fran Loszynski

Keep your sentimental favorites! Alot of races have been won on sentiment. Afleet Express and Dublin just might be the "Mine That Bird" surprise of last year's Derby. I've found when you least expect it--there's a super horse. Go Alex's kids.

04 Feb 2010 8:56 AM
Footlick

LDP-Funny you asked that because I was wondering how in a couple of years Curlin's first fillies in the breeding shed would be with him!   I certainly think it would be worth a go having Curlin top or bottom with Unbridled's Song blood.  Curlin was a strong sturdy horse and the bloodlines seem to cross well.  Unbridled's Song's seem more refined.  I think that they could easily compliment each other.

04 Feb 2010 9:34 AM
Footlick

Coldfacts- Hypothetically, if Sheikh Mohammed decided to send Passion for Gold to the Derby- how would you rate his chances?

04 Feb 2010 9:38 AM
Footlick

Everyone, eventually there will be a Derby winner from Dubai.  It's just a matter of time.  Not saying it will be this year, but it will happen.

04 Feb 2010 9:39 AM
Forbidden Apple

Coldfacts, you have way to many facts, but the information is interesting. Remember that a NY bred could not win the KY Derby and then Funny Cide won it. Remember that a 2 yo Breeder's Cup champion could not win the KY Derby and then Street Sense won it. I understand your information, but horse racing is more than facts. By the way, I just looked at the pedigree of Vale of York and I see a wonderful turf pedigree. Also remember that he won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile on a synthetic track.

04 Feb 2010 10:10 AM
It Aint Easy being good

Coldfacts look at racing history and let me know the last time following a long shot that another long shot won the derby. I think its chalk city this year whoever wins the derby will the derby favorite that takes it down. I am sure looking a lucky will probably go off as the favorite with that said I will throw a hondo across the board on Dublin and lentenor. The key to betting on the derby is pick 2 horses you like and the horse that calvin borel is on. Can anyone tell me the last time calvin borel has been off the board in the derby?? 5 years ago maybe??

04 Feb 2010 11:41 AM
Lesty

Forbidden Apple -

I'm not sure if you implied this in your post, but the world will not see many future stars from St. Liam. He died from a freak accident, and only sired one crop.

04 Feb 2010 1:29 PM
Greg J.

It Aint Easy being good,

    Calvin's results last ten years in the Derby  2009, 1st(Mine that Bird), 2008, 3rd(Denis of Cork), 2007, 1st(Street Sense), 2006(No Mount), 2005(No Mount), 2004(No Mount), 2003, 8th(Ten cents a Shine), 2002(No Mount), 2001, 12th(Artic Boy), 2000, 12th(Exchange Rate).  So he had a 1st,3rd,1st,X,X,X,8th,X,12th,12th in the last ten years in the Derby...

04 Feb 2010 1:54 PM
Usmaan

Footlick "Passion for Gold" will create a huge buzz if arrives for the derby.He has already won a group one going mile and a quarter, so distance wouldn't be a problem.He has only raced three times as a Juvenile but he was dominant in his two wins.He is by Medaglia D'oro, so one would think that he would have no issue with dirt.He is highly rated in Europe and is amongst top favourites in the early market of the English derby. I think he has 120 rating in the would thoroughbread rankings which i believe is the second best in the world. I think he will be the only horse that have raced and one a group one race at the time of the derby, so he has proven over the derby diatance.I think he will have a huge chance

04 Feb 2010 4:08 PM
Ron the Roman

Ron the Greek will show all of you come Feb 20th in the Risen Star when he flys down the lane all the way to the wire.

He will beat Maximus Ruler again, then hopefully everyone will shut up about him.

04 Feb 2010 9:55 PM
Footlick

Usmaan-He was green when he ran against St Nicholas Abbey, but much more professional in the St Cloud.  It looks like they have no intention running him here though.  Too bad. But I'll look forward to his match ups with St Nicholas Abbey in Europe!  I think he would have a huge chance here too.  Thanks for the input.

04 Feb 2010 10:58 PM
Coldfacts

Forbidden Apple,

You are correct regarding the now dispelled belief that NY breeds & BCJ winners cannot win the derby. However, in the case BCJ winners, the majority of the top BCJ champions rarely made it to the derby and consequently had no chance of winning. BCJ champions Stevie Wonderboy, Unbridled Song, Azeri and Vindication were all capable of winning the Derby but all sustained injuries that either hampered their chances or prevented them form entering the race. I was not one who believed it was not possible for a BCJ winner to be victorious in the Derby.

I raise the facts about Lookin At Lucky sire because there are things that are extremely difficult to achieve. Below are a few:

(a) Broodmare that has produce either back to back Derby winners or two winners.

    I have no record of any mare achieving this feat.

(b) Stallion that has sired back to back Derby winners.

    I have no record of any stallion achieving this feat. Exclusive Native came close with Affirmed in 1978 and Genuine Risk in

   1980.

© Broodmare sires whose mares that have produced back to back winners of the Kentucky derby.

    I have no record on any broodmare sires achieving this feat. Granddame sire Northern Dancer achieved this feat twice. His

    sons Dixieland Band & Nureyev were broodmare sires of 2007 & 2008 derby winners Street Sense & Big Brown.

    Dixieland Band & Danzig were broodmare sires of 2000 & 2001 derby winners Monarchos and Fusaichi Pegasus.

There are some feats that are just very difficult to achieve. If  Lokin At Lucy wins he derby sixty  years of history will change. Is it possible? YES.

The great SWEEP sired two mares that produced back to back Triple Crown winner i.e., War Admiral and Whirlaway.

05 Feb 2010 2:06 AM
Forbidden Apple

Yes Lesty, I mentioned that Saint Liam has only produced one crop. And yes, he will have more than one stakes winner this year. Only my opinion, but watch all of his offspring when they are in a race of 1 mile or more. In this sport we must have an opinion and stand behind it.

05 Feb 2010 10:22 AM
Wavering Monarch 7

Craig J, above aways in the comments has it right with Dave In Dixie.  Look for this Sadler trainee to give both Tiz's a handful at the wire.  Lewis has the makings of the trifecta of horses from last year moving on to win subsequent stakes on the trail (PON, PC, IWR).  It's early, but picking one now is part of the fun - expect Ike & Dawn Thrash to have a May 1 winner on their hands in D.I.D.

05 Feb 2010 10:50 AM
Coldfacts

It Isn’t Easy Being Good

I have taken the liberty of correcting you posting name.

You may be on to something regarding a possible chalk or short prices 2010 Derby winner. The 2005 derby winner Giacamo (50-1) was followed by Barbaro at (6-1) The last time there back to back double digit winners was between 2002 and 2003. War Emblem (20-1) Funny Cide (12-1)

Forget Looking At Lucky he will not win. Bob’s best 3YO is Concord Point. Lentenor has no chance of winning the derby. No full siblings have ever won the derby. Dublin has an excellent dam line probably one of the best in this 3YO crop. However, his sire won two legs of the Triple Crown and that makes the odds of his siring a derby winner very remote based on historic record. Twenty seven horses have won two legs of the Triple Crown in the last 50 years. Of a possible 20 that had 3YO crops to race, none have sired a derby winner. Swale, Sunday Silence, Funny Cide, War Emblem, Alysheba and Big Brown have been excluded for obvious reasons. Will Afleet Alex succeed where the likes of Northern Dancer, Damascus, Spectacular Bid, Pleasant Colony, Thunder Gulch, Silver Charm etc., have failed? Northern Dancer did sire Nijinsky the winner of 1970 English Triple Crown. However that was turf racing.

05 Feb 2010 11:46 AM
Coldfacts

Footlick,

Passion for Gold should be a good candidate. I do not expect any horse from the Raise A Native sire line to win the 2010 Derby. The Raise A Native sire line has produced the winner of the Derby in first year in each of the last three decades i.e., Genuine Risk (1980) Unbridled (1990) Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) The pattern analysis shows that no horse from the Raise A Native sire won the last derby in each of the of the preceding decade. Spectacular Bid won the 1979 derby. He was from the Bold Ruler/Nasrullah line. Sunday Silence won the 1989 derby. He was from the Halo/Hail To Reason line. Charismatic won the 1999 derby and he is from the Storm Bird/Northern Dancer line. Now if the pattern is used as a measure, the Raise A Native sire will not produce the winner of the first derby of the new decade as it produced the winner of the last derby in the preceding decade.

Any horse not from the RAN sire line has an outstanding chance in the 2010 derby. Passion for Gold has one significant historic negative. His dam was sired Thunder Gulch won two legs of the Triple Crown. For reasons unknown the winners of these classis races all have moderate to poor records as Derby broodmare sires. In the last 40 years only two winners of Triple Crown races have been broodmares sires of derby winners. Never Knock the dam of 1994 Derby winner Go For Gin was sired by Belmont winner Stage Door Johnny. Virtuous the dam of 1980 Derby winner Genuine Risk was sired by Belmont winner Gallant Man. Thunder Gulch has a broodmare band of over 133 upto 2006. None of these mares are on the Triple Crown board. Does this mean that Thunder Gulch has no hope as derby broodmare sire? Certainly not! His great, great grand sire Native Dancer won two leg of the Triple Crown and he was broodmare sire of great Northern Dancer. Vale of York is the one.

05 Feb 2010 12:26 PM
Zookeeper

Coldfacts,

Your posts give me an inferiority complex. :)

What does your great knowledge of pedigree tells you regarding an offspring of Tiznow winning the KD?

I'm a big fan of his and would like to know what the "historical" chances of this ever happening. I know that the dam has a lot to do with it also, but just for fun, what are Tiznow's odds of producing the ONE in 3,000 (or so) born every year?

05 Feb 2010 1:45 PM
mz

Coldfacts, thank you for helping me to waste my day at work again -- lucky that I work for myself or I would have been fired by now.

I haven't been able to get at my racing history books (they're at home -- did I mention that I was a work?) but I found two sires who sired back to back Derby winners:

Hanover with Donerail 1913 and Worth 1912

King Alfonso with Chant 1894 and Lookout 1983

but the closest one(s) I found recently are the father and son duo of Polynesian (Chateaugay in 1963) and Native Dancer (Northern Dancer in 1964).

There have been quite a few that sired the dams over a series of years, but not back to back.

I also have to thank you, Coldfacts, for giving me something to do this weekend during the Super Bowl commercials since, living in Canada, I never get to see those commercials everyone is talking about until later, on Youtube.

Here's hoping the GAME will actually be interesting -- I've lived through quite a few snoozers over my time.

And I also have to tell everyone down there in BloodHorse-land that NOTHING IS CLOSING IN TORONTO THIS WEEKEND - it seems like all this winter, YOU guys have been getting our snow.

Pretty fun for us (except that we're paying our snow-removal guy to snooze in the morning).

05 Feb 2010 2:02 PM
LDP

Footlick,

    Your mention of Ubridled Song being crossed correctly is what go me thinking of that, now in fact that may be the topic of my next blog! Thank you for some much needed inspiration.

05 Feb 2010 3:06 PM
Coldfacts

Steve,

You have not mentioned the third place finisher in the Delta Jackpot Oak Motte. After reviewing the  Delta Jackpot several times I think he is a better colt than winner Rule who occupies #9 in your derby dozen. He was clumsy coming out of the gates from a bad draw and was very wide around the first turn. He had to be used very early as the Delta Track does not favor closers. In spite of this he was very strong in the stretch although he had no chance of catching the first two.

His dam Ravens Bride was unraced which make her an ideal candidate to produce a derby winner. His sire Valid Expectation was only bred to 63 mare as compared to Rule’s sire Roman Ruler who was bred to 197. He looks like a very solid colt and if you thing Rule merits #9 this colt is worth a look.

05 Feb 2010 5:31 PM
rilharreguy

Time and time again I have to agree with Coldfacts! Not because he spouts facts related to breeding like Bill Gates discussing the windows operating lineage, but because Vale of York is your next derby winner. I loved the horse heading into the BCJ and was ecstatic to get 30-1 on him. His breeding is outstanding, he developed a great racing base at the age of 2, has shown he can rally twice in a race, shown he is not afraid to go between rivals, and has won races from on and off the pace. Very few others that are considered derby contenders have the look or accomplishments of Vale. He is indeed the one!

05 Feb 2010 7:02 PM
Matty Downey

I think you will be aware of Uptowncharlybrown after the sam f davis stakes. Two turns will be where he will show you what a talent he is. I think he'll change quiet a few opinions. I was there for the pasco stakes  and watched him run , he went a furlong or two futher and looked like he could run like forrest gump"forever"

05 Feb 2010 7:55 PM
Footlick

LDP- Glad I can be of help to someone!

05 Feb 2010 8:08 PM
TCR

I noticed there are a lot of fans of Ron The Greek after his convincing win in the Lecomte, and rightfully so. I also see there are fans of Maximus Ruler and his gutsy 2nd place effort. Did anyone pay real good attention to the 3rd place finisher in the Lecomte? "Letsgetitonmon" came from the back of the field at the same time as Ron The Greek,but went inside and had to weave thru traffic, and then had to wait for the #9 horse to come over in front of him diagonally in the stretch. He lost second by 1/2 length, and lost the whole race by 2 lengths in only his second start on the dirt. He is by Maria's Mon whom already has a Ky Derby winner, and his Dam, Cafe Concerto has 14 G1 winners in her 1st and 2nd Dams, and 21 GSW total in the 1st and 2nd Dams. If you watch his style he should get even better as the races get longer, as will Ron The Greek. Looking at Lucky is tough to beat, but has he raced on dirt yet? That is not rhetorical...I really don't know if he has.

05 Feb 2010 8:49 PM
Coldfacts

Mz,

Kindly accept my sincere apology for the adverse impact my post had on your day. I must also express appreciation for the information you provided. If you revisit my post you will note that I specified that I had no records. I never stated that there were no records of certain recurrences. In attempting to verify your information I was able confirm that Chant won the 1894 derby and Lookout the 1893. It appears there was a transposition in your post. However, the sire of colts is not King Alfonso. Chant was sired by Falsetto and Lookout by Troubadour. Donerail won the 1913 derby but was sired by Mcgee. Worth won the 1912 derby but was sired by Knight of The Thistle. It appears you actually meant you for found two broodmare sires whose mares produced back to back derby winners. You are correct. Again many thanks.

Zookeeper,

Breeder Cup Classic winner rarely feature as derby winning sires. Only Unbridled has sired a derby winner to date. That said Tiznow’s grand sire Relaunch hails from the In Reality sire line that has featured in two derby winners. In Reality sons Smile and Believe It were broodmare sires of derby winners Smarty Jones and Real Quiet. Relaunch sired Breeder Cup Classic winner Sky Walker and was the dam sire of the brilliant Breeder Cup Classic winner Ghostzapper. Although the In Reality line has featured on the broodmare side, it has not featured on the sire side. Tiznow is the best chance for the In Reality line to feature on the sire side for the derby. He has the potential to break the strangle hold the Raise A Native line has on the Triple Crown series of races. If there is no curse on BCC winners, Tiznow should add a derby winner to his Belmont winner Da’Tara

05 Feb 2010 9:59 PM
derby2004

JACKSON BEND!! this is obviously going to be the most talented and EXPERIENCED horse going into the derby. Wouldve have slaughtered the Holy Bull field if 1., wouldnt have run wide 2., Wouldve been pushed at 16th, 3., would not have broken from the outside post. The distance will not be a problem.

05 Feb 2010 11:11 PM
LDP

Footlick,

    I try to get help whenever I can. Who do you like in the Robert B. Lewis? I like American Lion a lot, even wrote a blog on why I liked him for this race.

06 Feb 2010 10:30 AM
Saratoga AJ

Keep an eye on today's Whirlaway Stakes at the Big A (3rd Race).

3 Yr Old colt Eightyfiveinafifty is 3/5 against stakes winners on his second start off a winning sprint in his very first race in January. Won by 17+ with a 105 Beyer. This horse may be a monster. Leading NYRA trainer Gary Contessa says it's the fastest horse he's ever trained.

06 Feb 2010 10:50 AM
Coldfacts

Steve,

I will be paying close attention to Macias whom I think will be the winner of the Robert Lewis. The colt is showing the sort of tactical speed that is not consistent with his pedigree. His sire Purge was effective at a mile and but his dam line contains a ton of stamina. His dam Azelna was sires by Tropular a son of the brilliant Troy. This is the second time I have seen the Troy dam line featuring on the derby trail. The first time was in the pedigree of unfortunate Street Cry. Street Cry’s dam Helen Street was an Irish Oaks G1 winner who was sired by Troy. It appear Troy has passed on a lot of his stamina to his offsprings. His second dam was sired by Miswaki who was dam sire of the great Daylami. The third dam was sire by Forli known for siring 3 times HOY Forego. Fourth dam sired by 1970 English Triple Crown winner Nijinsky.

Under no circumstance should this colt be recording a time of 1:08 plus for six furlongs (Jack Goodman Stakes). This is a rout horse that is spiriting. There is obviously a lot of turf pedigree in the dam line but his should suite the Pro Ride surface. The distance of the Robert Lewis will give him a chance to relax and sprint home for what should be an impressive victory.

06 Feb 2010 11:17 AM
Zookeeper

Coldfacts,

Thank you for making my day re: a Tiznow's offspring chances of ever winning the Derby. If and when this happens, I will be one crazy fan!!! :)

06 Feb 2010 12:20 PM
mz

Yup, Coldfacts.  I meant broodmare sires.  I guess the lack of snow up here got me all dazzled and confused.

As an aside, BloodHorse staff:  what do you report on when everything in the east is shut out and (yet again) Santa Anita has water problems and is closed?

Whatever happened to those Mule races anyways?

06 Feb 2010 2:46 PM
Saratoga AJ

Eightyfiveinafifty turned in a headcase performance...bolted, went way wide entering the far turn and tossed Chavez at 1/5. Contessa has some work to do!

06 Feb 2010 3:19 PM
femalefan

Been watching the comments about horse names, particularly about Ron the Greek (who I personally like in the Derby). Many horses are given their names for sentimental reasons, which I have been reading is the reason for Ron the Greek's name. Article in the Blood Horse talks about the horse being named by the owner for a dear friend of the owner who went to visit the colt almost every day since was born. Unfortunately the friend died before he could see the horse run in a race. By the way, the friend was Greek and his name was Ron.

06 Feb 2010 3:21 PM
Footlick

Unfortunately- it was cancelled by a defective track, but I liked Caracortado and Macias.  We'll see next time.  Maybe they will all ship out to prep or ship to GG.

06 Feb 2010 5:05 PM
marktoothaker

I know this horse probably has no shot of becoming a Derby horse but hats off to Peppi Knows this is a horse Legacy sold at Kee and was a mere 6500 yearling. This is one of the things I love about this business is you never know where a good horse is going to come from. Derby Dreams still alive at this point for his connections. Best of luck

06 Feb 2010 6:43 PM
Coldfacts

Femalefan,

If you like Ron The Greek then you should be pleased with the return performance of Musket Man in the Super Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Musket Man’s dam is a full and  Ron The Greek dam are full sisters. I do not have all the Kentucky Derby history but it must be historic for two sisters to have produced two derby contenders in consecutive years. Ron The Greek appears to have inherited the stamina of the A.P. Indy line and is a serious horse. It is interesting to note that Musket Man won his first five races at four or five different tracks. RTG has won all his races at different tracks.

Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex were both named based on individuals the owners were connected to. The name does not make or break a horse. However I hate name that have been reused numerous times. Dublin was purchased for $525K and the name Dublin was used 19 previous times. I find it difficult to understand why anyone would spend that sort of money and select a name that has been used so many times. Dunkirk was purchased for $3.7M and the name Dunkirk was used 9 previous times.

Ron The Greek is a May foal and he is only going to get stronger as he matures.

marktoothaker

Mine That Bird was purchased for $9,000 and his first victory was in a Maiden Claimer.

06 Feb 2010 8:05 PM
femalefan

coldfacts, thanks for the information.  Maybe the stars are aligning for Ron the Greek, and the sister connection will be a great story. Always enjoy reading your posts....you seem to be very knowledgeable about thoroughbreds.

06 Feb 2010 11:14 PM
Armaan

Going through early nominations, nothing stands out.To me this year is one of those years when we a have a lot of horse of the allowance and minor stake horses.Amongst the colts Lookin at Lucky and Vale of York are consistant g1 horses.I was really hoping tha Godolphin will nominate Passion for Gold and Al zir but none of them is in their eight horse nominations.Amongst the Godolphin nominted horse Vale of York is clearlt the stand out.Other horses to look for will be couple of undefeated horses Sahara Kingdom and Fareej

07 Feb 2010 2:06 PM
LDP

Saratoga AJ,

    The colt's bit broke, not many horses, especially a thoroughbred, have a cool enough head to sit through that. Contessa said the colt is normally level headed, so it would make sense that the cause of 85 bolting was the bit breaking.

08 Feb 2010 7:53 AM
Footlick

I would assume it would be rather devastating for the bit to break.  It reminds us of how important the jockey is, especially on an inexperienced horse. Luckily both horse and jockey are fine.

08 Feb 2010 9:39 AM
Footlick

Armaan- Perplexing that they wouldn't even nominate those two.  I've never heard of Sahara Kingdom and Fareej.  Are they just maiden winners?  Does Sheikh Rashid have any 3 yr olds?  I know he has Richard's Kid and Ready's Echo, but they are older.  I try to find out about his horses, but not alot of information is out there.

08 Feb 2010 9:43 AM
JerseyBoy

There have been lots of comments about horses trained by Pletcher.

It still remains a fact that no trainer has saddled more than one Kentucky Derby winner since 2000.

It also remains a fact that Pletcher is one of the leading trainers in the world.

It is also a fact that if trainers were judged by their wins in a single race run once a year for 3yos only, they would nearly all be failures.

It should be noted, however, that some shrewd people made a killing betting on Super Saver.

One of Pletcher’s constant critics on this blog, after extensive pedigree analysis, once touted a 4yo to win the Kentucky Derby.  Now he considers himself qualified to pass judgment on Pletcher’s supporters.

09 Feb 2012 10:07 AM

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