February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

 1

Buddy's Saint Bruce Levine

Saint Liam—Tuzia, by Blushing John

Some are knocking his big Beyer Speed Figure drop from the Nashua to the Remsen, but he was coming back in only three weeks after popping a 101 Beyer and figured to regress. Runner-up did come back to win Whirlaway Stakes.

 2

Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert

Smart Strike—Private Feeling, by Belong to Me

He missed some training due to a high white blood count, but got over it quickly and was back on the track in a couple of days. Baffert has mentioned the March 13 San Felipe as a possible debut, but was far from committal.

 3

Super Saver Todd Pletcher

Maria's Mon—Supercharger, by A.P. Indy

He’s up to a half-mile in his breezes, going a half Jan. 31 in :48 3/5, and obviously is still a ways off from a race. As mentioned before, he has the talent and the pedigree, but he needs to learn how to rate off the pace.

 4

Eskendereya Todd Pletcher

Giant's Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew

Breezed an easy five furlongs in 1:02 2/5 for the Feb. 20 Fountain of Youth. Zayat Stables, which also has Derby hopeful Macias heading for the (Feb. 15) Southwest, is hoping to get back to Churchill after second-place finish last year.

 5

Jackson Bend Nick Zito

Hear No Evil—Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat

Zito keeping him sharp with :47 1/5 half-mile drill, second-fastest of 51 works. Fountain of Youth will be a big test for him, stretching out to 1 1/8 miles against a tough, classy field. It’s important for him to be running strongly at the end.

 6

Interactif Todd Pletcher

Broken Vow—Broad Pennant, by Broad Brush

Still believe he should be put back on dirt or at least synthetic based on his pedigree, and revert back to the come-from-behind running style that won him two stakes last year. He’s now lost two straight stalking the pace.

 7

William's Kitten Mike Maker

Kitten's Joy—Blush, by Menifee

Breezed solid half in :48 for Fountain of Youth, and should relish the stretch-out to nine furlongs. He not only needs to be closing fast he must be competitive at the to show he can run with these horses. Changing leads would help.

8

Rule Todd Pletcher

Roman Ruler--Rockcide, by Personal Flag

Classy colt with a beautiful stride, but another who has to show he’s not a one-dimensional speed horse, although he did come from off the pace in his first two career starts sprinting. Game and handles any kind of track.

9

Tiz Chrome Bob Baffert

Tiznow—Woodland Shadow, by Woodman

Baffert likely will keep him in California for the rescheduled Robert B. Lewis Feb. 13, but he has been known to change his mind. Postponement of the race was disappointing, as it’s time to see what he can do going two turns.

10

American Lion Eoin Harty

Tiznow—Storm Tide, by Storm Cat

Another who has to wait an additional week to make his two-turn debut after cancellation of Feb. 6 Santa Anita card. Harty, like Baffert with Tiz Chrome, had his colt primed and ready, and this will throw off his schedule.

11

Ron the Greek Tom Amoss

Full Mandate—Flambe, by Fortunate Prospect

It’s still hard to know what to make of him. As he steps up in class, he can’t count on winning from as far back as he came in the Lecomte. But he was impressive from a visual standpoint, and we’ll go by that for now.

12

Dublin D. Wayne Lukas

Afleet Alex—Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird

Combination of successful surgery for an entrapped epiglottis, several solid works, and an unproven group of 3-year-olds at Oaklawn brings him back on the list, based mainly on his strong Hopeful score and physical attributes.

To participate, use your cursor to drag the selections on the left to the blank placeholders on the right. Once you have completed ranking all of the horses, submit your entries and compare your results to the rest of the community. A first place ranking will earn 12 points, second place receives 11 points, and so on.

146 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Billy's Empire

nice to see Dublin back in the top 12. I hope Wayne has him ready to roll. I know he works em fast in the morning, so let's carry it over to the afternoon and get Wayne the TC race record...

08 Feb 2010 12:53 PM
Greg J.

Mr. Haskin,

     Good List, Even though Lookin at Lucky tops my list at this moment.  I believe after next week American Lion will crack your top five, I also believe after the 17th of 20th that you will have to put Lentenor in the top ten! If he goes in the allowance on the 17th or shocks everyone and enters the Fountain of Youth on the 20th, Either way, I guarantee a win in either, We shall see...

08 Feb 2010 1:07 PM
Rachel

I agree Greg re: Lentenor, his last race the time for the mile was 1:34.9 and the race was 1:41 and change...those are race horse times. I'm not saying he's "the" horse, but it looks like he's legit.

08 Feb 2010 1:17 PM
Here Comes the Rain

Steve, I'm excited to see Dublin back in the rankings.  He was fun to watch when in top form.  On another note, is it wrong for me to keep praying for Rain at Santa Anita?  It sounds bad I know but it will keep the pressure on to revert back to dirt.  That would exciting!!!

08 Feb 2010 1:48 PM
trebloc

Super Saver worked four furlogs yesterday in 48.20. The 4th fastest out of 55 works. Cannot wait to see Uptowncharliebrown take on Rule in the Sam Davis.

08 Feb 2010 2:08 PM
Greg J.

Here Comes the Rain,

     I know you were only kidding, But, Don't hold your breath on Santa Anita making the announcement they are going back to dirt, That's what everyone assumes, But, I think they will choose to do the right thing and install the correct surface this time, It will be "Tapeta", That is my guess...

08 Feb 2010 2:19 PM
Todd

Watch out for Kettle River in the Sham. Darley best chance at a Derby win ever!

08 Feb 2010 2:19 PM
JG

Dublin come on now... Where is Drosselmeyer at??

08 Feb 2010 2:22 PM
Charmed By Silver

Lentenor looks like hes a stong prospect.  I wouldn't say he's a top contender but hes one to watch for sure

08 Feb 2010 2:35 PM
TC

I don't know how you can even make a list at this point. I feel like the picture is going to change a lot in the coming months, even more than usual. I really like how Afleet Alex horses have improved now that they're three. So obviously I can't wait to see what Dublin is able to do during a time when his dad thrived. Peppi Knows has been on my radar for quite awhile. So I was anxiously awaiting his debut, and I was happy with what I saw. He ran well against Noble's Promise who tops my list, and Buddy's Saint who tops yours, so he belongs in the discussion. He sports an awesome record and should only get better with distance. Concord Point and Tiz Chrome both race this week and that will show what Baffert has in his hand. I like Concord Point at this point, but he has more to do over the next few months. Remember that, Barbaro, Street Sense, Big Brown, and Mine That Bird all had just two preps after January, 1st (Barbaro ran on the 1st) so it's a wonder how things will play out this year. I think with horses running less and less before the Derby, we'll be left with lots of questions throughout the Triple Crown races. A horse like Dublin who has a decent foundation, breeding that suggest improvement with age and distance, and a trainer who'll run him enough in the spring may just be the horse that wins against a field full of green horses.

08 Feb 2010 2:37 PM
mooshupork

Buddy's Saint will be racing for immortality in June @ the Belmont.  This is the best horse I have seen run in 25 years.  Mark my words, it's the year of the Saint (s).

08 Feb 2010 2:43 PM
Betsy

I think Dublin's a sprinter and I don't get putting turf horses on this list. Interactif at #6?

A horse you didn't mention last week is Hotep.

08 Feb 2010 2:45 PM
zarvona

Hmmm ...For the last laugh... In my last posting re Steve's '1st Dozen's list', where I expressed 'SHOCK' at names left off,  ... someone gave me some bunk for mentioning and including a look into a lil colt named "Bim Bam"!!!, (currently 9  4 1 4 with his only 2nd finish a 1/2 length loss to "Nordic Turce" in a 1 MI. (T) effort at 1:33.66 !!! which they only passed along an 88 Beyer speed figure to???),  stating something like ..."he couldn't beat claimers at Penn National"???... Well, who is grinning now??? ..Huh?? Especially after he just beat the horse on Steve's list at #6 for the last 3 weeks--whom I must add I also do like by the way for one of the 20 gate shots on May the 1st!

--And I am still a bit baffled by "Drosselmeyer's" exclusion off of this latest list after his latest Allowance effort. (As I one still looking for "Heart Brute")... But, I suppose we can wait for a 'graded' run if you must. But, a sub 1:51 as a prep always looks powerful to me at 1 1/8 !!! no matter what underrated Beyer # they assign to it!!

 "Remind you of anyone?"

08 Feb 2010 2:50 PM
Carolyn K

I am so excited to see Dublin on the list. I just hope to see the same horse I saw at The Spa! He is gorgeous...

08 Feb 2010 2:56 PM
Johnny

Steve, is Drosselmeyer at least on your bubble?

08 Feb 2010 3:23 PM
Fran Loszynski

I'm glad you put Dublin on your list Steve. Dublin is a machine! That's the nickname I've given him.MACHINE. People doubted Afleet Alex when he raced early on too but that kick-in speed is bred in them. Watch for it in the "BELMONT"

I'd also like to see Afleet Express win for Gainesway.

08 Feb 2010 3:32 PM
SSC

Steve looks like the following will meet in the Sam Davis on Saturday:

FLY BY PHIL  

GLEAM OF HOPE

ICE BOX

MIDDLE OF THE NITE

RULE

SCHOOLYARD DREAMS

TEMPTED TO TAPIT

UPTOWNCHARLIEBROWN

Pretty strong field and most on one of your lists. Any obvious choices in here that you see.  

08 Feb 2010 3:41 PM
Mack

I am liking the Afleet Alex's, one to watch is Afleet Express. He's a well put together horse with a huge stride. I also liked Afleet Again's finish in the Whirlaway another scopey colt by A.A.

08 Feb 2010 3:57 PM
Slew

I'm still watching out for Ron the Greek.  I think he'll be hot.  Jackson Bend is small, but he stays on my list.  Maximus Ruler remains a consideration for me.  Saints take Super Bowl...Wow!

08 Feb 2010 4:22 PM
Footlick

It's interesting to me how so many are so concerned about who is on the list now and who isn't, when it's the 1st Sat in May that counts.  The way horses drop off these days because of soundness issues all around, I would think I'd rather have my horse off the list.

08 Feb 2010 4:26 PM
Luca

Where's Noble's Promise? A list without him???????

08 Feb 2010 4:37 PM
mz

Has anyone heard anything about when Hollinger might start this year?

(If you're going to mention Hotep, you need to mention Hollinger)

08 Feb 2010 5:13 PM
Mindy C.

Tiz Chrome-American Lion in an exacta box!!!!!!!!!!!1  Way to go Tiznow...

08 Feb 2010 5:57 PM
Hal

Everyone is overlooking the filly Blind Luck.

08 Feb 2010 5:59 PM
Forbidden Apple

We are all guessing at this stage of the game. I can't wait much longer for the Fountain of Youth Stakes to be official. It should be a full field and a good test for Buddy's Saint to prove that he belongs at the top of the list. I still can't figure out why people are stuck on Jackson Bend and Dublin. Someone wrote that Dublin appear to be a sprinter, I completely agree. He will add some small appeal this summer in the Kings Bishop at 7f.

08 Feb 2010 6:29 PM
Matt Converse

The Whirlaway hardly flattered Buddy's Saint.  It was a terrible race that someone had to win after the best horse jumped the rails.  The Beyer (86) confirm my opinion of the race.  And Buddy's Saint didn't just regress when going two turns, he regressed terribly.

Interactif #6?  Again, not a very good race, 89 Beyer and he loses.  

You seem to hang on to these type of horses every year.  Old Fashioned, Scat Daddy, Hello Broadway all of the same mold, top two-year-olds who don't improve at three.  Jackson Bend, Buddy's Saint,a nd Dublin are looking like this year's version. Lookin At Lucky and William's Kitten are two more that don't seem to be improving.

I enjoy your list and comparing it to my own, it's well written, but I have to wonder when you'll learn from your past mistakes.  

My top Derby horses in December of 2008 were Quality Road, Vineyard Haven, and Rachel Alexandra.  None won the Derby, but they sure are better horses than Hello Broadway and that ilk.  

08 Feb 2010 6:36 PM
hoofprintsandhorseplay

Bim Bam still couldn't beat the Green Monkey - just cause a horse wins a turf doesn't mean he will win 10 furlongs on dirt May 1st. I'll stand on the corner of East and Union nude if Bim Bam wins the Derby.

Lentenor is pointing toward the Preakness not the Derby.

Eightyfiveinafifty will regroup and show his class.

Dublin is far from a sprinter. He was winning short because he could breathe. Now with the throat surgery he will go long.

08 Feb 2010 6:40 PM
dr fager01

The Great Steve Haskins, you are an equine superstar, but the Derby winner is not in this bunch. But i get it, your choices are based on what have you done for me lately.

08 Feb 2010 6:44 PM
Gin

I am so happy you have Dublin on your list.  After his surgery setback he should be good to go!  

I hope to God they Lentanor on the turf, he's got the huge stride just like big bro.  I would hate to see anything happen again with the line.  They are turf breds, please Jackson's leave them there!

You dont have 85/50 he cant help his bit broke.  Thank goodness we didnt see a real disaster, Saturday. I too am surprised at no mention of Drosselmeyer.  Buddy's Lism,  secretly I hope a St Liam's wins the derby.  As he only had one breeding season shame total shem hes gone.  Lucky just isnt wowing the critics in the east, which is silly hes proven hes for real and some nice horse!  Its going to be interesting as time goes on here how it all shapes up!

08 Feb 2010 7:34 PM
Big Red

 Very similar to my top 10 list i compiled over at "Thoroughbred Junkie" though our order is quite different. My Dark Horse Selection is "Rule" as he is related to "Funny Cide". Seems a strange year as the contenders are rather thin at this point.

08 Feb 2010 8:02 PM
mburry

Bik Bam has a good record in stakes although he may not be going to the derby, if he was I would use him, reminds me of Musket Man. Bim Bsm beat Interactif.

08 Feb 2010 8:13 PM
christy tate

still think lookinat lucky might be the best. my sentimenal choice would be lentenor, but i doubt he'll run.

08 Feb 2010 8:26 PM
fegerass

Steve this may be a little off point but could you break down the triple crown nominees by states where they were bred?

08 Feb 2010 8:38 PM
Chette

I agree with what you say about Interactif, especially about having him come from behind.  I dont know what Pletcher is doing here, if you look back he did the same thing with Bittel Road and his form dropped off.  If a horse performs well coming from behind, dont try to fix what already works.

I also really like EightyFiveinaFifty.  I think he is going to be a sprinter/one turn miler that we will hear a lot more about.

08 Feb 2010 9:34 PM
trackjack

Waiting for Drosselmeyer.  Does anyone have the Beyer for his last Alw. win?

08 Feb 2010 9:49 PM
AnneM

If she runs big this weekend, I would not be surprised if Blind Luck runs in the Derby - she is better than any on the current top 12 list.

08 Feb 2010 10:04 PM
Daniel R. Brooks

I like the look of "Ron the Greek".I like the way he runs.Take him"to the bank".   P.S.Before the season I had the "SAINTS" to win the Super Bowl.God bless and good luck.

08 Feb 2010 10:08 PM
Her Doings

Buddy's Saint all the way...

08 Feb 2010 10:16 PM
txhorsefan

Always fun to compare the lists at this early point of the game, but I must admit I am still waiting for a few more races to be run before I get really serious about it.  Right now I'm having fun just watching them develop and see how things change from week to week.  It's still a long way to May and I simply want them all to stay healthy as well.

08 Feb 2010 10:23 PM
big derby

Drosselmeyer; Drosselmeyer; Drosselmeyer!!!!!!!

08 Feb 2010 10:28 PM
Armaan

I have a lot of doubts abourt most of the horses on the list.A lot of the horses on the list allowance or minorstakes horses.Derby is one of the toughest races of the year and i am not sure if horses with one or two allowance wins or minor stakes win against un proven competition is really good enough to be in the top list for the toughest race in their division.Some of the horses have not even run in their three year old year.Even a horse like Dublin who is a g1 winner, but his last two races make him anything but a top derby prospect.I think lookin at Lucky is a proven class horse and I will respect him in any race.He has been as consitent as a horse can be against top level competition.I have read a lot of the opinions and its exciting to see people making passionate arguments for the horses they like.I think you cant make a serious argument for the horse to win the derby until he shows you top form before that race.So the derby picture is fairly unclear. Good thing  Persuit of the Crown is premiering this thursday, because watching these horses work and hearing from their trainers  will tellgive us a clear idea.

08 Feb 2010 11:23 PM
Jason

I will start by saying my Derby horse is Afleet Express, although he still has a lot to learn. He should appreciate added distance and if he could maybe catch a break and not get slammed out of the gates he should show his best race, because it is still to come, not to mention Jerkens horse's usually get better as they get older.  As for Steve's dozen I do respect it seeing as how it is part of his job to watch these horses and put this list together, however I do disagree with some of it.

Buddy's Saint hasn't really beat anything considering Peppi Knows came back to win a 4 horse race on a speed favoring track.

Lookin at Lucky is easily one of the best horses at this point and time, even though our friend Matt Converse apparently thinks he is regressing??

As for everyone who thinks Interactif doesn't belong on the list, you are crazy. That horse is bred to run on anything. He came out and ran a big race in the Hallendale Beach off of a tough Breeders' Cup race in which he finished a solid third, anyone who follows horse racing should notice that the majority of horses who run impressive races on Breeders' Cup day usually regress a bit in their next start, whereas I believe Interactif improved some. Bim Bam ran impressively, but that may have been all that colt has to offer.

On to Rule I still think we need to see more out of him, if he wins the Sam F. Davis I will consider him more of a contender, but apparently Pletcher needs to see more as he has been keeping him away from the top competition so far.

As for Dublin showing up on the list, I do not quite follow, Lukas has been struggling of late and Dublin beat a field at Saratoga that really hasn't gone on to accomplish much yet, for example Aspire hasn't been seen since his third in the Champagne, Backtalk hasn't been heard from, and the rest of those horses are still eligible for a first level allownace race. I believe he was just more mature than the rest of that bunch, and they have since caught up to him.

As for the others that were left off the list that people thought should have made it, Lentenor, he's a turf horse, plan and simple. Matz knows that. Drosslemeyer, he's trained by one of the top TURF trainers in the nation, his dirt numbers are less than stellar and he didn't beat much in that allowance race at Gulfstream, but I won't count him out. Noble's Promise hasn't made any noise lately therefore he doesn't get a spot here.

For a few that I feel should have got a mention, Maximus Ruler and General Maximus, both with impressive starts last time out.

That's all I have for now, I am sure I will get an ear full from a few of you.

08 Feb 2010 11:52 PM
Jason

I forgot to mention anyone who has jumped on the Eightyfiveinafifty bandwagon, really needs to rethink that, he can't get the distance, Contessa even said "he is the fastest horse he has ever trained" how many Derby winners have you watched win on the front end??

09 Feb 2010 12:20 AM
Coldfacts

Steve,

You did not specify your list of horses on the bubble this time around. I am interested to know if Oak Motte and Fly by Phil are on your bubble list. Both colts are products of unraced mares. In the case of Fly by Phil, his dam True Mood was sired by Deputy Minister. She bears a significant similarity to Rhythm Of Life and Sheriff’s Deputy the dams of Sarava and Curlin. Needless to say both Rhythm Of Life and Sheriff’s Deputy were sired by Deputy Minister. They were unraced and their pedigrees reflect no inbreeding in the first five generations. True Mood bears the exact profile. Fly by Phil has a record of 5 Starts, 3 Wins, 2 Places.he has already won over 9F.  In my opinion if Interactif can make your list, Fly by Phil should easily replace him

Dublin: I dislike horses on which surgeries have been performed, especially surgeries that are to correct reparatory issues. In any event Dublin will be forced by Mr. Lukas and will invariably be a non factor. A colt purchased for $525K and given a name that has been used 19 times previously must spell bad luck. His profile does not fit that of a derby winner and there are others that are far more worthy of inclusion in your list.

Ron The Greek: “As he steps up in class, he can’t count on winning from as far back as he came in the Lecomte.”

I would agree with the above statement if Street Sense and Mine That Bird did not take the last to first route in their respective derbies. Giacomo closed from far back to win his derby. Victory Gallop was notorious for closing from far back. He was only bested by Real Quiet in the Derby and Preakness. He gained revenge in the Belmont. What RTG has in abundance is what most of the colts on your list may be lacking i.e., Stamina.  The only exception is Williams Kitten whom I think should be ranked above Super Saver. Zenyatta closes from last in most if not all her races. This colt has been successful with his running style and why change what works. RTG is a May foal that in spite of his maturity disadvantage has won at five different tracks. He is more than just a closer, he is a race horse.

09 Feb 2010 12:31 AM
camehome

Glad to see Dublin back in the mix

09 Feb 2010 1:25 AM
Damascus

It's always darkest just before the winner finally dawns on you.  Look for Middle of the Nite to run a big race in the Sam Davis and crack your dozen next week. Beaten two lenghts by Eskendereya after a tardy break from PP # 12.  Should really move forward.

09 Feb 2010 6:52 AM
Rachel

I forgot how much I liked Ranger Heartley's CD...he's classically beautifully built and he uses his body like a running machine, the farther he goes the better he'll be...and, to a nobody like me, I think he'll love the dirt...

He's also showing he's pretty durable and he's got a heck of a "feel good" story...re:EM's great story about his name.

09 Feb 2010 6:57 AM
Fran Loszynski

I just read the story about Ranger Hartley and I would like to wish the Dowlings the best with their horse "Ranger Hartley" As with Afleet Alex I too feel we need fans more fans to bring their heart to the racetrack and these horses have supplied this in so many ways. Ranger Hartley being named for the brave soldier; I know he will shine for the owners. There are so many great feel-good stories out there about racehorses. It's not only the money we put in our wallets after we win or the thrill of the race, but the love- owners, trainers, jockeys and fans have for these magnificent kings of speed.

09 Feb 2010 8:02 AM
Somethingroyal

My early favorite is Looking at Lucky. However, I'm really going to keep my eye on Buddy's Saint's preps. The way he laid off the pace in the Remsen and then took off from his field was amazing.  

09 Feb 2010 8:09 AM
Somethingroyal

Footlick-

I just read your 08 Feb 2010 4:26 PM post. Sad, but I have to admit very true :-) Last years Derby drop outs was unreal.  

09 Feb 2010 8:19 AM
Paul

I keep waiting on D'Funnybone to work his way on to the list. He had one bad race and it was on synthetics. He is in my top 5.

09 Feb 2010 8:48 AM
onalimb

It's still early yet, a few more races and they will start droping off the list and more will enter...

09 Feb 2010 9:40 AM
Runfast159

Truthfully, most of the horses on this list will not make it to the Derby because they will either not progress talent wise or they will be injured along the way. But, that is racing for ya and we like lists no matter what they are for!

I agree with Buddys Saint and Lucky in the top 2 spots. Other horses I am watching are Maximus Ruler, Afleet Again and SavemyspotImbeting. I wasn't overly impressed with Drosselmeyer's last out, but I'll keep him in my sights as well. Of course, Blind Luck still ranks in the top 3 for me, if we were counting fillies.

09 Feb 2010 10:14 AM
Larry

Who is on the bubble?

09 Feb 2010 10:19 AM
Forbidden Apple

Damascus is right, I wrote in an earlier blog that Middle of the Night was the best horse out of that Gulfstream allowance race. He was a very big horse as a 2 year old and just full of muscle. I was able to visit him in his barn several times, and his attitude reminded me of Skip Away. He was a bit rank and kind of a jerk, but a very talented horse. I hope he wins at Tampa!

09 Feb 2010 11:55 AM
Dave

I discount all speed horses. How many have you ever seen go wire to wire? Cept the Big Guy of course. Another thing, If you saw the Interactif race, did you get the feeling the Jock was over confident, and fell asleep on the horse?

09 Feb 2010 12:34 PM
It Aint Easy being good

Coldfacts good point...ron the geek does have stamina I just dont think he will win. Closers typically dont do well in the derby. Only in rare cirmcustances do they win. MTB and Giacomo only won because of the mud and a blistering pace. I guess thats why horse racing is so fun because you never know. I expect this year to be chalk city!

09 Feb 2010 1:27 PM
Fran Loszynski

Dave-  That's why Dublin, Afleet Express, and Afleet Again could win easily, because they were not bred only for speed, their statures are "MACHINES"!

09 Feb 2010 1:33 PM
Shelby's Best Pal

Steve, I look forward each week to your Derby Dozen.  Thanks for sharing and thanks for the excitement.

09 Feb 2010 2:07 PM
Trifectabox

Nick Zito is loaded up with talented horses being overlooked, i.e. Ice Box, Latigo Shore, etc. Also like Pletcher's Colizeo. All the contenders sired by Distorted Humor look good.

Someone earlier asked the question I've been trying to get answered: where is Hollinger?!

09 Feb 2010 3:56 PM
Steve Haskin

Hotep's race was after the column was posted. He is being featured in this week's column.

Drosselmeyer was not put on the list because I couldnt bring myself to have four horses in the top 12 with the same owner. Waiting  until American Lion runs to see if Drosselmeyer will replace him. He's my #13 and just waiting to put him on.

09 Feb 2010 5:50 PM
Steve Haskin

I kept Interactif on hoping Pletcher finally will put him back on the dirt. If I dont hear anything from him to that effect he will be dropped next week. I still think he's a good horse who hasnt been ridden properly.

09 Feb 2010 5:52 PM
Steve Haskin

D'Funnybone is very close to making the list. Look for him on there in the next couple of weeks.

09 Feb 2010 5:53 PM
delrene

Good list - I see a few not in there that may come out in the next few weeks.  Go  Lentenor.

09 Feb 2010 5:54 PM
Steve Haskin

Dr. Fager 101, considering I wrote your book and I am an equine superstar, you can at least spell my name right :).

09 Feb 2010 5:56 PM
UTCB Fan

Steve, Steve, Steve .... when Uptowncharlybrown wins the Sam Davis, will he earn enough "street cred" to be on your Top 10 list??

09 Feb 2010 6:04 PM
90Proof

Steve: I agree with Buddys Saint, Super Saver should be number 2. Lookin at Lucky so far is a synthetic horse. I believe the only hope he has to win the derby is a wet track which help POTN so much last year. I agree with the poor spelling Dr Fager 101, the winner probably isn't on this list.

09 Feb 2010 6:09 PM
Coldfacts

It Aint Easy being good, listed below are extracts from your 09 Feb 2010 1:27 PM post and some cold facts:

“Closers typically don’t do well in the derby”

Below is a fact check of closers that won the Derby in the last decade:

2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus closed from 13th

2001 – Monarchos closed from 13th

2005 – Giacomo closed from 17th

2007 - Street Sense closed from 19th

2009 - Mine That Bird closed from 19th

In the decade between 1990 and 1999 Grindstone, Sea Hero, Lil E Tee, Strike The Gold and Unbridled all won the derby from double digits lengths behind the leaders. Based on the facts check of the last two decades, closer have won 5 of ten in each decade (50%)

“MTB and Giacomo only won because of the mud and a blistering pace”

Go For Gin and Smarty Jones won in the slop and they were occupied first and second in the three furlongs. The derby won by Monarchos had the fastest pace in derby history. That derby is followed by the one won by Fusaichi Pegasus.

The mud did not contribute to MTB victory as he came back and defeated most of the horses that he met in the derby. Giacomo was a dead closer and could not have won from any other position. He was fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic won by Invasor closing from far back.

09 Feb 2010 7:07 PM
Matt Converse

Jason--slight difference I know, but I don't think Lookin at Luckyu regressed, I said he appears not be improving.  He seemed to have just held form in his last start, he won but it was pretty slow.  The filly Blind Luck ran on the same track, same day, same distance, and outran him by about six lengths.  She's my #1 pick right now.  Unlike him, she is also proven on dirt, she won her maiden on dirt--by 11 lengths.  Hollendorfer did nominate her to the Triple Crown, although he says the Oaks is her goal.  As a prep for the Preakness maybe?  (smirk)

09 Feb 2010 7:24 PM
Carlos in Cali

Any word on when First Dude will make his next start?...and is Tempted to Tapit still pointing towards the Sam F.Davis.

09 Feb 2010 9:19 PM
Jason

Matt Converse-Blind Luck has been very impressive however she isn't a Derby horse, just because we have had a few fillies beating the colts the past few years doesn't mean there will be one every year. As far as Lookin at Lucky goes, I am tired of people counting out horses because they have never ran on dirt, a great horse can run on anything, plain and simple.

09 Feb 2010 10:16 PM
Steve Haskin

UCTB Fan, Yes. And ask his owners if I have been ignoring him.

09 Feb 2010 10:40 PM
Steve Haskin

coldfacts, I put Dublin on the list for now, to see how he does in the Southwest. To be frank, I'm not enthralled with anyone so far, and I'm waiting for the allowance winners to make the next step, because there are so many of them. For anyone who states that the Derby winner is not on my list, I wont argue with you. I think the 3-year-old picture is befuddling, with no one really making a big enough impression to get excited about.

For all the Afleet Express fans, I do think he has the potential to move way forward, but there isnt that much room to fit all the promising horses in 12 spots.

09 Feb 2010 10:50 PM
tcc

Carlos:

By the talk out there, Tempted To Tapit mihgt be heading to the Risen Star or to the Fountain Of Youth.

09 Feb 2010 11:34 PM
mz

Steve, can I ask a stoopid question?  Didn't it used to be that you could supplement to the Kentucky Derby?  If I remember that right, when did they change it?  Unless I'm waaayy out there and you still CAN supplement.

10 Feb 2010 12:26 AM
Matt Converse

Jason--no one's counted Looking at Lucky out, I just said he didn't improve and Blind Luck ran much faster.  He's definitely is in my Top 10.

Matt's Derby Dozen

1. Blind Luck

2. Ron the Greek

3, Tiz Chrome

4. Conveyance

5. Tempted to Tapit

6. Looking at Lucky

7. Super Saver

8. Pleasabt Storm

9. Rule

10. Prince Will I Am

11. Drosselmeyer

12. Eskendereya

dropped out--Bear's Hard Ten (still like him but hasn't worked in forever, may move him back on if he works soon), Tahitian Warrior (good horse shipped to Dubai.)  

others to watch--American Lion, A Little Warm, Kitty's Turn, Stay Put, Jackson Park, Buddy's Saint.  

10 Feb 2010 12:49 AM
Chuckles the Clown

That time of year again Steve,

We've had a running colloquy the last two years regarding the Derby. Two years ago I tried to  convince you Pyro wasn't a Derby horse. I was on Big Brown. You're forgiven, Figure men like Thorographs Jerry Brown were high on Pyro too. Last year you were a Pioneerof The Nile man. I wanted Quality Road-I Want Revenge-Friesan Fire in that order. Few had Mine that Bird. I believe Pioneer Turf footed on last years sloppy sealed Derby Track. He definitely impeded the show and fourth place horses while tiring late. The Preakness was Pioneeer's Dirt Test. Lookin at Lucky is of similar makeup. Look at Lucky's pedigree compared to Square Eddie  and you'll see the Turf lineage. Come East Lucky, Come East!

CtC

10 Feb 2010 8:42 AM
Coldfacts

Steve,

There is a colt that is likely to be a starter in the Sam Davis that has captured my attention. The colt is Hear Ye Hear Ye. He is probably not on anyone’s list and rightfully so as his only claim to fame is a victory in the Jack Price Juvenile Stakes at 20-1. His pedigree bears similarity to two colts that I am high on. They are Vale Of York and Concord Point. Both colts’ pedigrees reflect inbreeding to siblings and I am very big on sibling inbreeding. I made a small fortune of Vale Of York in The BCJ because of this pedigree characteristic. Hear Ye Hear Ye pedigree reflects the most unique sibling inbreeding I have seen to date. Who are the siblings reflected in his pedigree? None other than the great Mr. Prospector and his relatively unknown brother Search For Gold both by Raise A Native/Gold Digger. His dam I Am Nifty is also inbred to Mr. Prospector and his relatively unknown brother Search For Gold. It can be concluded that Hear Ye Hear Ye has a double dose of two full sons of Raise A Native.  One represents the most influential extension of the great Native Dancer. He has a modest record of (9 Starts: 2 - 0 - 1, $129,977)

In the Jack Price Juvenile Stakes, Hear Ye Hear Ye was settled in fourth position along the rails before being angled three wide for his wining move. The fractions for the Jack Price were 22.3, 47, 1:12 with a final time of 1:25.1. The Calder track is known to be deep and his final time after stalking strong pace was excellent. It appears this colt has finally figures out what the game is about. Is this colt a derby horse? Well he was sired by Hear No Evil who happens to be the sire of the highly regarded Jacksons Bend who occupies #5 on your derby dozen list. I think Hear Ye Hear Ye has the better dam line. Jacksons Bend’s dam is from the non-performing Strom Cat broodmare line that is yet to make its entry into the Triple Crown charts. Hear Ye Hear Ye’s dam was sired by Unbridled Song who hails from the Mr. Prospector line. The Mr. Prospector broodmare line has come to life on the dirt in recent time. This dam line was literally none existent on the Triple Crown chart prior to 2005. This all changed with emergence of the brilliant dual surface performer Barbaro. He was followed by War Pass, Mine That Bird and Rachel Alexandra.  The #1 horse in the world for 2009 Sea The Stars was not left out of the Mr. P’s dam line influence as his dam was sired by Miswaki a son of Mr. P. Does anyone remember Daylami?  Well Daylami’s dam was also sired by Miswaki.  If Jacksons Bend whose dam is from the non-performing Strom Cat broodmare line is a derby contender, I would not dismiss Hear Ye Hear Ye. He was produced from a hot broodmare line; his sire was not abused as he only bred 15 mares in 2006 and both he and his dam are inbred to sibling. Could the presence of Mr. Prospector and his full brother in the pedigree of this colt make him a derby winner? Did the presence of influential full brothers Teddy and Sir Gallahad make Iron Liege into the 1957 derby winner? An impressive performance in the Sam Davis could hold some answers.

10 Feb 2010 9:10 AM
Slew

Coldfacts...you stated MTB came back and defeated other Derby Horses since the Derby.  To my meager knowledge..he hasn't won any race since the Derby....and that's a cold fact!

10 Feb 2010 9:15 AM
Steve Haskin

Mz, you can still supplement, but it costs a lot of money.

10 Feb 2010 10:58 AM
Carlos in Cali

Thx tcc,I appreciate it.

I Guess they want to get those graded Stakes earnings rolling already.Makes sense if they think highly of him and want to get away from the NY weather.

10 Feb 2010 11:09 AM
Footlick

Matt Converse- do you think the pace might have a little to do with the difference between Looking at Lucky's last race and Blind Luck's?  Blind luck half fraction was quite a bit faster.  Since LAL only finishes as fast as he has to, that would make quite a difference in the final time.

10 Feb 2010 11:11 AM
Coldfacts

Slew,

Mine That Bird was only beaten by Rachel in the Preakness. Behind him were the following derby starters - Pioneerof The Nile, Musket Man, Papa Clem, Flying Private,General Quarters and Derby favorite Friesan Fire. I think you have missed the fact that defeating others does not necessarily mean a particular horse has to be the winner of a race. Rachael defeated the entire field in the Preakness. Mine That Bird defeated the horses that finished behind him or the only horse he did not defeat was Rachael. I am not sure I agree with you that this is not a cold fact.

10 Feb 2010 12:46 PM
It Aint Easy being good

Coldfacts is right I am still not convinced that synthetics horses can do anything on dirt, POTN benefited from a sloppy track came back in the preakness and got worked. Dont expect much from horses prepping once over dirt. The Derby winner will be a dirt horse and will probably come out of the florida derby if it comes out healthy. I agree with Steve that the horse that the top 12 are really weak right now and the picture will become clear by this time next month which is also march madness......yay!

10 Feb 2010 12:53 PM
Sysonby

Matt, how can you LAL has not improved when he's been inactive? If he's dull on the return, fine but assigning a value to a colt that has not started at 3 is not valid.

I cannot see falling for speed crazed, sprint bred colts like 85/50 (this year's This Ones For Phil) off a big sprint win.

It also looks like Todd is committed to grass with Interactif.  It's not like he doesn't have other options on the dirt.  He's tipped his hand as to who he ranks best by pointing Eskendereya to the FOY.  I like Super Saver but have downgraded him as he wont start til the Gotham.

As for fillies, I wont include a filly in my "Derby Dozen" until her owners have stated that they are hoping to get to it.  Just nominating is not enough.  I was a huge fan of RA last spring but knew that Morrisson would never run her in the Derby so I never used her on the list.

When I do my list I am trying to find horses that I think can and will run in the Derby and who have breeding, training and the potential to get the right experience.  For me it's not "who would you pick if the Derby were tomorrow?" Rather it's who do you foresee getting there the most ready?

10 Feb 2010 4:12 PM
Bloodline Bob

Steve, The winner of the 2010 Kentucky Derby will have a sire that was born in 1997. Since 1998,my Derby winners are Real Quiet,Monarchos,Funny Cide,Giacomo,Barbaro and the exacta in the 2009 Ky.Derby!I have all my W2G's from the Mohegan Sun racebook to prove it. I'm a subscriber of Blood-Horse since 1998 and have to thank the magazine for my good fortunes in betting on horse races. I have 3 other impressive W2G'S since 2006 thanks to info learned from Blood-Horse. Again Steve, you have my email address,feel free to contact me privately.

10 Feb 2010 4:46 PM
insider p

This is for TC-- Buddy's Saint is also my Derby pick at this point e but,Big brown if you gather all the facts and throw out the Belmont he has been the best to come along in many years Buddy looks just like him so if he wins fountain of youth we'll go from there.

10 Feb 2010 4:47 PM
TerriV

Nice to see Dublin and I'm hoping to see Lentenor on there soon.  But last year certainly was a lesson in not jumping on any bandwagon too soon.  A great list for starters though.

10 Feb 2010 5:21 PM
Lucky Jay

The Field for the Sam Davis:

Rule

Schoolyard Dreams

Tristen's Mambo

Middle of the Nite

Silver Craft

Uptowncharlybrown

African Moon

Hey Coldfacts - I like your research....Since he is not entered here, where do you think Hear Ye hear Ye may next start?

10 Feb 2010 5:24 PM
Steve Haskin

Bloodline Bob, you seem convinced I dont believe you. If you say you had those winners why shouldnt I believe you? I dont need you to prove it.

10 Feb 2010 7:05 PM
tcc

Matt C.

Who is Jackson Park?

10 Feb 2010 9:19 PM
j.d.williams

its nice to see all this intrest but it is way to early to get on any soapboxs. I saw interactif,s race in january and he is as worthy as any on this list. Its to early and they all have a lot of growing and learnng to do.

10 Feb 2010 9:40 PM
Chuckles the Clown

Coldfacts,

Thats all very interesting regarding inbreeding to the Mr. Prospector line.

You are referring to a concept known as "Line Breeding". Essentially it's Federico Tesio's concept but Olin Gentry (Of Darby Dan) put it into easy to understand words: "Return to the Sire the best Blood of his Dam."

Now, according to the theory, the "return of blood" from the nicked mare will "ideally" be in the same generation it exists in the sire's pedigree.

Which is all very well and good, but why would you interpret that the best blood of Hear No Evil is from "Mr Prospector"? (I'll leave aside for now the fact that Mr Prospector does not exist in Hear No Evil's Dam pedigree and thus violates the Tesio Formula.) The best blood of Hear No Evil's dam is debatable, but I'd lean to Pago Pago, Best Turn or Turn To.

But to inbreed, in any fashion, to short winded and notoriously infirm Mr. Prospector is a proven recipe for disaster. Why would you figure thats going to result in a Derby horse?

www.pedigreequery.com/hear+ye+hear+ye2

Lastly, I would point out that Barbaro is Dead.

www.pedigreequery.com/barbaro4

CtC or call me Federico

10 Feb 2010 9:43 PM
Matt Converse

Opps!  Jackson Bend.  I need an editor.

11 Feb 2010 2:23 AM
Matt Converse

Interesting hear Ye Hear Ye is brought up, I started following him quite awhile ago when he was two, but kind of lost track of him.

11 Feb 2010 2:24 AM
Coldfacts

Chuckles the Clown,

Many thanks for your views on line breeding as opposed to inbreeding to siblings. There was a piece in December 2007 by Alan Porter on BloodHorse web site titled ‘Successful Inbreeding To Siblings’ that provided some insight into the benefits of this approach.

I find your comments below regarding Mr. Prospector stunning:

“But to inbreed, in any fashion, to short winded and notoriously infirm Mr. Prospector is a proven recipe for disaster”

The Raise A Native sire line has accounted for the winners of 42 Triple Crown races and 75 top three finishers in Triple Crown races since 1969. In has been by far the most dominant sire line in the history of the Triple Crown. Raise A Native’s most prominent sons were Exclusive Native, Majestic Prince, Alydar and Mr. Prospector. Of aforementioned four sons of RAN, Mr. Prospector has been the most successful. Horses directly linked to him have won 32 Triple Crown races in the last 24 years. Mr. P. sired a winner of each leg of the Triple Crown series of races. Eight horses directly linked to Mr. Prospector have won two legs of the Triple Crown. Horses directly linked to him have won (8) Breeder Cup Classis. In fact the last three BCC winners were sire by a son and two grandsons of the great stallion. His grandson Street Cry was sire of the 2009 Melbourne Cup winner and was the sire of the brilliant Australian colt Whobegotyou. Thee are a host of records that I could present  but I have no desire to overstate my point.

You have classified one of the greatest extension of the great Native Dancer as “short winded and notoriously infirm” The cold fact above suggest that you owe all the fans of Mr. Prospector a huge apology. I hope you are not an individual who is beyond redemption.

NB: Danzig was retired was retired because of unsoundness. His legacy as a stallion is just as good as Mr. Prospector on the European circuit. Would you regard Danzig “short winded and notoriously infirm”  

11 Feb 2010 7:30 AM
DR.Fager (the real and only true DR. FAGER)

Who?  Dr Fager 01  ?? I am the only Dr. Fager , oh, all right ..   you can be Dr. Fager 2

Good  plays are Calif. horses whom have great pedigrees and are running well but are not  showing finishing kicks on the fake dirt

but  whose family loves dirt

The real Dr.Fager from Saratoga!!

11 Feb 2010 10:27 AM
Fran Loszynski

Nick Zito always liked Afleet Alex and bought a colt "Quick Ride". In all my horseracing years as a fan, I always watch what Nick Zito does!

I wonder if Quick Ride will become eligible? Remember Birdstone!

Also congrats to Tim Ritchey on his award and getting Summer Bird. If anyone wonders how he will be with Summer Bird-I remember reading "It was like taking my son to college for the first time" when he brought Afleet Alex to Gainesway to retire. Tim Ritchey is all heart and his horses give their "all" for him.

11 Feb 2010 10:32 AM
Coldfacts

Chuckles the Clown,

I am at a loss as to why you would remind us that Barbaro is no longer with us. His story is one that is bitter sweet. I only mentioned the brilliant colt because he represented the entry of the Mr. Prospector broodmare line into the Kentucky Derby chart. Barbaro's dame was sired by Carson City a son of Mr. Prospector. Prior to Barbaro, no stallion directly linked to Mr. P had ever been the dam sire of the winner of Triple Crown race. Since Barbaro the Mr. Prospector broodmare line has been associated with a Derby and Preakness winner. How many broodmares from the Storm Cat and A.P. Indy line have produced the winner of a Triple Crown race? My records reflect zero.

11 Feb 2010 12:17 PM
insider p

It would appear that Super Saver is being completely overlooked his win was very impressive drawing off..I'm sure he will be schooled to relax and run from off the pace in upcoming races.Really good connections..

11 Feb 2010 12:49 PM
insider p

Cold Facts-- excellent research very interesting comments thanks

11 Feb 2010 12:53 PM
tcc

Steve:

Opening Odds(Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1),on this week's Derby Dozen.

1 Buddy's Saint 12-1

2 Lookin at Lucky 8-1

3 Super Saver 15-1

4 Eskendereya 20-1

5 Jackson Bend 12-1

6 Interactif 5-2

7 William's Kitten 30-1

8 Rule 12-1

9 Tiz Chrome 20-1

10 American Lion 20-1

11 Ron the Greek 30-1

12 Dublin 15-1

11 Feb 2010 12:54 PM
Tim G

MZ, it was $600 for the early nom fee.  It's $6,000, at a second deadline on March 27.

It starts getting REALLY expensive with entry fee of $25,000 each and a starting fee of $25,000 each.

Then after 3/27 supplemental nominations $200,000 plus meeting the criteria.

11 Feb 2010 2:09 PM
Greg J.

Coldfacts,

      I would also like to Thank You on your research and comments, Bravo!  I will add, If you think "Clown" is willing to offer an apology regarding Mr. Prospector? Well, Going by his Barbaro comment, Then I doubt it...

11 Feb 2010 2:14 PM
mz

Sorry to keep playing the same violin, Steve but I read your comments on Hotep and if you like him (subject to some caveats), what do you think about Hollinger, who bettered him last year in the Coronation Futurity?  I undertstand that Hollinger hasn't run yet this year but neither has Looking at Lucky and others on your list and, after last year, you shouldn't throw out Canadian based runners.

And I presume that you're going to wait to put any fillies on the list until their owners give you some indication that they're heading for the Derby, right?

11 Feb 2010 2:19 PM
mz

Thx for the $$ info, Tim G. (At least I now know that I wasn't going out of my mind remembering some "(S)" signs on the charts.)

I presume that if an owner really, really believes in a horse, they'll put up the money (and the later they wait, the more "really"'s an owner has to add to their "believes")

11 Feb 2010 3:26 PM
Steve Haskin

I dont throw out Canadian-based runners. Hollinger hasnt worked in three months.

11 Feb 2010 3:28 PM
Steve Haskin

Tcc, 5-2 on Interactif? See how powerful I am :) ?

11 Feb 2010 3:30 PM
mz

We bloggers always thought you were an important kind of guy but Wow!  First Interactif ... then, Global Warming and North Korea....and then, finally, the BIG one: Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta on a track, together, without their owners mumbling their comments for months and months and months beforehand.

(I can dream, can't I?)

11 Feb 2010 3:52 PM
tcc

Steve:

Interactif is 5-2 as he is listed with All Other 3YO's (Field).

11 Feb 2010 6:25 PM
mz

Shoot, tcc -- way to wreck a dream!

11 Feb 2010 6:51 PM
Steve Haskin

Tcc, I know, I was joking. Hence the smiley face.

11 Feb 2010 7:08 PM
tcc

Steve:

All those Uptowncharlybrown fans will get 50-1 opening odds.

11 Feb 2010 7:28 PM
Forbidden Apple

Did anyone watch MENDIP race today in Dubai? He looks like another classy runner from Godolphin and he is nominated to the Triple Crown Races.

I expect huge performances this weekend from Middle of the Night and Tiz Chrome.

11 Feb 2010 9:02 PM
Dave From Endicott

Lordy, dont let BIM BAM win the derby...the corner of East Ave and Union is a beautiful place...no need for HP&HP to mucky up the view ;)

I am wondering if the people calling Dublin a sprinter were the same ones calling Afleet Alex a sprinter back in '05?  Maybe they said the same of Hard Spun too?

11 Feb 2010 9:19 PM
Bloodline Bob

Steve,If my "guess" is correct about "1997", then we agree on horses like Esendereya,Interactif,Tiz Chrome and American Lion. But I'm not saying what the horse's name is because I don't know it as of yet as long as his sire was born in 1997. If there is more than 1 horse in the 2010 Ky.Derby with this scenario I will narrow it down to just 1 horse. I'll make my selection on April 26, 2010. I hope my pick matches yours. Keep up the great work.

11 Feb 2010 9:30 PM
Chuckles the Clown

Debatably Mr Prospector got more good mares than any stallion in history. If you followed those foals to the races you would know that they had difficulty staying sound long enough to make an impact. The history of the Triple Crown is littered with breakdowns and shortened careers due to proximate Mr. Prospector in the pedigree. At one time near the end of his breeding career, the average lifetime starts for a Mr Prospector foal that got to the racetrack was 7 starts. I am of the firm opinion that Mr Prospector has been notoriously bad for both the breed and the game and that any horse with extensive inbreeding to Mr Prospector is nearly an automatic toss to have a notable career at the races, let alone become a Champion. That said, Mr Prospector is a "brilliant" speed influence if diluted sufficiently in crosses to mares with sound pedigree, but even then that comes at a "cost".

Mr Prospector is most influential as a grandsire because there his brittleness is diluted. However, You were the one that pointed out that with Barbaro, Mr Prospector had become a Triple Crown Broodmare Sire. I merely elaborated upon your statistic that Mr Prospector tranferred his genetic trait for unsoundness to Barbaro as well.

I am sorry that Mr Prospector is as influential in the pedigree of the breed as he is because he is overall a negative influence.

I don't expect Hear Ye Hear Ye to last too long, but theres another horse in the Sammy Davis with even more Prospector.

CtC

11 Feb 2010 11:21 PM
Forbidden Apple

I am one that wrote Dublin may be best at 7F. I watched Afleet Alex as a 2 year old in Saratoga Springs and he did have amazing speed. After intense training by Tim Ritchey the horse gained tremendous stamina for a classic distance. However, Dublin is not an exact replica of Afleet Alex. Secretariat was a stallion, did he ever produce offspring that were as brilliant as he was?

Hard Spun also had incredible speed and the needed stamina to compete at a classic distance. He will be a star as a stallion.

12 Feb 2010 10:08 AM
Armaan

Forbidden Apple I watched Mendip's race and you are right he is a nice prospect. But I am not sure abouthsi participation in tripple crown races, because their triple crown horses will come from U.A.E derby and I am not sure if Mendip will run in that race.

12 Feb 2010 1:20 PM
Raven

Drosselmeyer will come in the first place in kentucky derby.

13 Feb 2010 3:18 AM
Coldfacts

Chuckles the Clown,

A few comment on you recent post –

“Debatably, Mr. Prospector got more good mares than any stallion in history”.

If good mares are classified as those that have distinguished themselves at the highest level on the track, your statement above is way off target. I did a summation of the mares that have earned $1M and the stallion that they have been bred to the most is Storm Cat. Obviously these mares are all G1 winners. A.P. Indy was second followed by Deputy Minister and Mr. Prospector. None of the resulting foals from the policy of breeding the best to the best has won a TC race.

“The history of the Triple Crown is littered with breakdowns and shortened careers due to proximate Mr. Prospector in the pedigree.”

Fact check:

2009 Kentucky Derby – The following starters: Mine That Bird, Pioneerof the Nile, Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy, Summer Bird, Regal Ransom, Dunkirk, Desert Party, Flying Private and Atomic Rain were all sired by sons, grandson, great grandson and great, great grandsons of Mr. Prospector. Approximately 58% of the 2009 Kentucky Derby field was directly linked to the great stallion. IT APPEARS THEY WERE NOT BREAKING DOWN AT THE RAPID RATE YOU HAVE SPECIFIED.

“I am of the firm opinion that Mr. Prospector has been notoriously bad for both the breed and the game”

Fact check:

25 Horses directly linked to Mr. Prospector have won 33TC races. The most victories associated with one stallion.

8 Horses directly linked to Mr. Prospector have won the Breeder Cup Classic. The most victories associated with one stallion.

4 Horses directly linked to Mr. Prospector have won the Dubai World Cup

1 Horses directly linked to Mr. Prospector have won the Melbourne Cup

Cartier Horse of the Year, 2009. Sea The Stars: His dam was sired by Miswaki a son of Mr. Prospector

'99 Eclipse Champion Turf Horse in N.A., ROA Horse of the Year (UK) and Horse of the World Daylami: His dam was sired by Miswaki a son of Mr. Prospector.

2009 Kentucky Derby, Mine That Bird dam was sires by Smart Strike a son of Mr. Prospector.

The Mr. Prospector line has been excellent on the track and at both ends of the breeding equation. I do you believe you should reevaluate the impact of this great stallion on both the breed and the game.

“Mr. Prospector transferred his genetic trait for unsoundness to Barbaro as well”

Fact check:

Barbaro exhibited no unsoundness in his six victories preceding the Preakness. To conclude that what happen to Barbaro is because of the Mr. Prospector in his dam line is baseless. There was no Mr. Prospector in Ruffian or Charismatic.

13 Feb 2010 8:50 AM
Coldfacts

Steve, a couple of the horses that did not make the Future Wager cut that you have highlighted are very interesting. There are some that have not made your secondary list that I find surprising.

Ziggy's Stardust: He has the pedigree profile of a derby winner. He is bread along the same cross as 2001 derby winner Monarchos. They were both sired by 1995 Champion Juvenile Marias Mon. Their dams were both sired by sons of the great Northern Dancer. Mornarchos dam sire Dixieland Band was also the dam sire of Street Sense. Ziggy's Stardust’s dam sire Storm Bird was dam sire of Belmont winner BIRDSTONE and Derby & Belmont winner THUNDER GULCH. Ziggy's Stardust’s pedigree has an added feature that I like immensely. Both he and his dam have no inbreeding in their first five generations. Both TC winner Secretariat and Derby winner War Emblem and their dams had no inbreeding in their first five generations. I know he is still a maiden but I will be following him keenly.

Nacho Friend: He was sired by Friends Lake a stallion I regard as one of A.P. Indy’s best son at stud. Friends Lake like his sire A.P. Indy was produced from a broodmare whose sire was a HOY. In the case of A. P. Indy’s his Weekend Surprise was sired by Secretariat. Friends Lake dam was sires by Spend A Buck who is responsible for one of the five fastest time for the derby.  Nacho Friend dam line is not on the derby chart. However his dam sire Kennedy Road was a champion 2&3YO in Canada and has Triple Crown winning sires Gallant Fox (Omaha ) and  Sir Gallahad (Gallant Fox) in his 4th & 5th generations. My expectations for Friends Lake are high and I will be following this colt as well.

Boulder Creek: I am a fan of his sire Tapit whose brilliance was not displayed enough because of unsoundness. His dam line represents the most successful in TC history. His dam sire Regal Classic is a million dollar earning grandson of Northern dancer. Eight of Northern Dancer’s sons have been broodmares sires of winners of 13 TC races. Four of his grandsons have been broodmare sires of the winners of 5 TC Races. Regal Classic is son of Vice Regent whose son Deputy Minister has been broodmare sire of Jasil, Rags To Riches, Curlin  and Sarava. His third dam Crooked Lady was sires by 1954 derby winner Determined who sired 1962 derby winner Decidedly. Tapit has been siring some very nice runners and this colt if from a powerful dam line. He has a lot upsides and merit following.

You have listed neither Oak Motte nor The Director. If Uh Oh Bango made your list Oak Motte should as well. I am of the opinion Oak Motte ran a better ran than both Rule and Uh Oh Bango in the Delta Jackpot. He left the gates awkwardly and was very wide around the first turn on a speed favoring track. In spite of being out paced badly he d rallied to get within a respectable three to four lengths of the winner and runner up Rule and Uh Oh Bango. The Director was a useful second in his last start but has the pedigree that has derby written all over it. His sire Mr.Greely is respected on the European circuit and has sired some outstanding horses. He is from The Mr. P has line that needs no introduction. His dam was sired by Deputy Minister whose broodmares have produced the likes of Curlin and Rags To Riches. His second dam is the Seattle Slew mare Solar Slew whose minor achievement foaling the incomparable Cigar. The Director is well bred and could come to life anytime now.

Lastly, is Fly By Phil off the derby trail? His sire is a $3.6M Mr. Prospector colt. His dam was sired by Deputy Minister and he has a record of (5 Starts: 3-2-0, $101,099) He has a victory in the Tropical Park Derby [G3,Crc,9FT] A colt who has won a 9F albeit on turf and who has not finished out of the top two in five starts cannot

make a supplementary list and maidens do. Confused!

13 Feb 2010 11:46 AM
Alex PB

Forbidden Apple:

Acorrection in emphasis is needed here.

Dublin nor any of the other Afleet Alex runners are specialists at 7F because of AA's brilliance at shorter distances as a 2yo. And although Tim Ritchey  did a great job with AA in the 3yo classics, the chief reason for AA's great success there belongs to his dam Maggy Hawk, whose sire Hawkster owns the world record for 12 furlongs (yes, lower than Secretariat's Belmont, on the turf) and whose female family includes Hawaii (BMS) and Princequillo. AA promises to be a source of stamina in the breed, not a source of sprinters.

13 Feb 2010 12:12 PM
Forbidden Apple

Hawkster set a world record on the turf, you can not compare turf times to dirt times. I was only knocking Dublin, not Afleet Alex. My point was that breeding is not as predictable as some make it out to be. Not every horse by Afleet Alex is going to be a 2 turn horse because he won the Belmont Stakes.

13 Feb 2010 2:02 PM
Chuckles the Clown

Coldfacts,

Methinks you're fixating.

100% of all Triple Crown Races have been won by descendents of the Beverly Turk, The Goldophin Barb or the Darley Arabian. You could run up a large tally selecting any horse in the remote pedigree. Alydar sired more Triple Crown winners with far fewer foals.

The fact is that there is a lot of Mr Prospector blood in the breed and the breed is all the weaker for it. Starts are down, injuries are up.

If you want to think that extensive inbreeding to Mr Prospector is how a horse will get to the Derby, be my guest. I bet against such a horse today at Tampa Bay and won. In defense of Uptowncharlybrown, he was running at the end but the winner was giving him 2 lengths. You'll have to figure out what that means.

www.pedigreequery.com/uptowncharlybrown

Mr Prospector brought speed to his matings. Generally what the breeders did was breed him to stamina mares, cross their fingers and hope the foals didn't come unglued too early. When you make a point to inbreed to Mr Prospector you are playing a dangerous high stakes game.

By the way, Mr Prospector was not the broodmare sire of Barbaro. That was Carson City. Another brilliant horse prone to throw ouchy get.

FYI, they ran Barbaro on Grass to begin his career and gave him lots of time between races. There were handicappers that believed Barbaro was being nursed along and they bided their time until they could catch him having to run the Triple Crown schedule of Big Race, two weeks rest, Big Race, three weeks rest, Big Race. I was one of those handicappers.

Good Luck with your Theory.

CtC

13 Feb 2010 7:47 PM
sherpa

Steve, imvho you're going to need to move Caracortado up into your Dozen.  He sure looked like the Real Deal in the Lewis, rating beautifully and winning comfortably with ears pricked.  Beautiful stride to him.  Coming off the track, he was almost bucking...like he'd just done a 4f work and wanted to go around again. Showed a lot of maturity against major competition in the Tiz's and DinD. He has got to be one to watch, even if he IS a CA horse. ;-)

I do hope Machowsky won't mess with his jockey...they appear to be a great team.  

13 Feb 2010 8:26 PM
Footlick

ColdFacts and Chuckles- I think the Europeans showed us how to breed Mr Prospector for distance.  They were the first successful breeders of distance with him as a sire, I think.  I feel there are many horses to blame for the fragility of our breed, pinning it on Mr Prospector, Chuckles, is unfair.  Northern Dancer didn't help as well as my favorite, Buckpasser.  The fact that some unsound horses became very prolific is just the nature of breeding.  The fact that breeding for speed in the US is the fashion doesn't help.  We had discarded stamina breeding for milers didn't help either.  Europe used the brilliant Raise a Native blood to their advantage while crossing it with favorable stamina blood.  Just my opinion, not trying to preach or lecture, if it comes across like that.

14 Feb 2010 12:11 AM
Zookeeper

sherpa,

Caracortado was very, very impressive this afternoon. As a Californian, I always get a big kick out of a Cal Bred winning an important race in open company. He may not be royally bred, his jockey and trainer are not superstars but he sure showed them how it's done. Also, he won his first race on DIRT at Fairplex. One more check in the plus column: his dam is by Maria's Mon... not too shabby! :)

14 Feb 2010 2:15 AM
Coldfacts

Chuckles the Clown,

Let me bring some closure to this issue. I am a fan of sibling inbreeding.  It does not matter whether it involves Mr. Prospector or any other prominent stallion. I mentioned Hear Ye Hear Ye because it was the first time had seen both the dam and the foal inbred to the same full brothers. It is just plain unusual. I was in no way promoting this breeding concept. The pedigrees of a number of great champions reflect sibling inbreeding. Steve did a piece on Damascus whose pedigree reflects inbreeding to full brothers. The pedigrees of the dams of Ferdinand, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Big Brown all reflect inbreeding to siblings.

There is another 3YO whose pedigree reflect sibling inbreeding. The name of the colt is Royal Paddy. He is inbred to Northern Dancer and his full sister Arctic Dancer. I have placed him on my watch list because I am a fan of this type of inbreeding. If I were wagering on the day that Hear Ye Hear Ye ran in that race I would have made a handsome return. I stick with what I believe in.

On the subject of Mr. Prospector, your conclusion that he is bad for the sport and the breed is being laughed at in all quarters. How can the most successful stallion line in the history of the Triple Crown be bad?  Are suggesting that the sire lines that are less successful are better for the sport and game? There is no line that provides a significant speed influence that does not have soundness issues. The Thoroughbred was not designed to carry weight on its back and run at 30 plus MPH. Those with more speed will be more susceptible to injuries.  In spite of what you conclude are serious soundness issues with the Mr. Prospector siring line, it continues to provide the largest percentage of the runners in the Triple Crown races.

Here are some approximate worldwide figures up 2006 for the number of sons at stud for stallions below:

Storm Cat 114

A.P. Indy 54

Danzig 72

Mr. Prospector 78

Now some could have died or pensioned since then.  If the Mr. Prospector sire line is so brittle, why does it provide most of the TC runners each year when the other three prominent stallions have equivalent or larger stallion roster? Could it mean that they are more brittle? We are all entitled to our opinions but not the facts. The facts indicate that the soundness issues you are highlighting are not as extreme as you have concluded. I appreciate your input on this issue.

14 Feb 2010 7:07 AM
Raven

"Rule Time" at kentucky derby 2010 after he wins at Sam Davis. I think "Get My Fix" could also be nominated at Kentucky Derby 2010, that horse will come from behind, like "Mine That Bird"

14 Feb 2010 7:55 AM
Coldfacts

Caracortado ran an impressive race but I think the runner up has a better prospect of winning the derby. At your convenience revisit the race and look at the stride on the Dave In Dixie who last race in October 2009. If he had a race under his belt he would have been sharper and no doubt closer to the pace. To get into contention he had to be used much earlier that than those ahead of him. Think he has more upside than Caracortado.

It is interesting to note the similarities between colt and the gelding. They were both produced from unraced broodmares. The dam of Caracortado was sired by Marias Mon a son of Wavering Monarch. Dave In Dixie’s dam was sired by Wavering Monarch. The dam of the talented but unfortunate 1993 Preakness Prairie Bayou was sired by Wavering Monarch.

I like to look at derby contenders from an historic angle. Where does Caracortado stack up against derby history?

SIRE: Cat Dream won only a maiden race and was retired after due to an injury. No derby winning stallion in the last 70 years has this profile. The only one that comes close is the imported and unraced Alibhia who sired the 1954 derby winner Determined. All other derby winning stallions has at a minimum won a graded race. It must be noted that Alibhia was a son of the great Hyperion whose sire line has a great record in the Triple Crown races. Cat Dream a son of Storm Cat is from a line that has a strained relationship with the Triple Crown races. None Strom Cat’ 100 sons have sired the winner of a Triple Crown race. It is possible for a stallion with only maiden victory and from the non performing Storm Cat line to produce a derby winner? I guess anything is possible but the prospect of Caracortado winning the derby is highly unlikely. Now, I must be careful as the 1933 Derby winner BROKERS TIP is the only horse to date whose only win was the Derby.

DAM: Mons Venus was unraced. Mining My Own the dam of Mine That Bird was unraced. Unraced dams producing back to back derby winner in this century is highly unlikely. Prior to Mining My Own, the previous unraced mare that produced a derby winner was Comely Nell dam of 1976 derby winner Bold Forbes (33 years) Again, I must be careful as between 1938 and 1949,  seven possible eight of the Derby winners during this 11 years period were produce by unraced mares. With 25 to 30 thousand mares being bred in the US now, what are the chances of this occurring?

Nice gelding but not the likely 2010 derby winner.

14 Feb 2010 8:19 AM
Racingfan

I am wondering...how did a blog about this years Derby hopefuls become about slamming Mr Prospector?

Chuckles The Clown:  have you read the book about Mr Prospector? I have and I do not find evidence about an inherent unsoundness in him.  He did sustain some injuries but I believe his trainer Jimmy Croll's opinion to be correct since he was the one dealing with him day in and day out. The owner wanted him in the Derby and was forcing the trainer to point him there in spite of the trainers objections that he could not be ready in time. Croll, not only believed him to be capable of winning to 9 furlongs, but also stated he did NOT believe him to be unsound but rather a victim of bad timing and a career compromised by the rush to the Derby. Injuries happen and a horse being injured does not make him or her a "bad influence" on the breed!

14 Feb 2010 1:15 PM
LDP

Forrbiden Apple,

    12 furlongs is 12 furlongs regaurdless of the surface. Sometimes course conditions, flat vs hilly, fast/firm vs sloppy/heavy, must be taken into account, but 12 furlongs is 12 furlongs.

14 Feb 2010 2:26 PM
Forbidden Apple

I am surprised at how poorly Tiz Chrome and Middle of the Night ran. I was most impressed by the closing finish of Uptowncharlybrown, he can win in the next stakes race at Tampa Bay Downs.

14 Feb 2010 2:32 PM
Jason

Oak Motte hasn't worked since his last start, why would he make the list?

14 Feb 2010 9:53 PM
Raven

Do you think "get my fix" will join the Kentucky Derby 2010, because that horse have a potential basis from behind?

14 Feb 2010 10:48 PM
Raven

My derby list :

1. Drosselmeyer

2. Buddy's Saint

3. Super Saver

4. Rule

5. Ron The Greek

6. vale of York

7. Lookin at Lucky

8. Lentenor

9. Coracortado

10.Mendip

11.Interactif

12.American Lion

13.Dublin

14.Jackson Bend

15.Conveyance

16.Dryfly

17.Get My Fix

18.Eskendereya

19.Dave in Dixie

20.Tizchrome

14 Feb 2010 11:36 PM
Armaan

I have afeeling that fountain of youth wilsomewhat clear the derby market.Among the obvious horses I happen to like "Loookin at Lucky" and "Vale of York" simply beacuse they have proven g1 record. Hey Raven you might to wan to add Mendip's stable companion "Sahara Kingdom" to ypur list since he is more likely to represent Godolphin in the triple crown races. Sahara Kingdomabsolutely dominated his competition in both of his strts as a juvenile and he is nominated for the triple crown races.I know Mendip is also nominated and he was impressive last week at Meydan. But Saeed Bin Suroor said after the race that they have no ambitious plans for him.I think they will make that decision on the basis of the performane of their horses in the U.A.E and with three year olds  like Vale of York, Al Zir and Passion for Gold in there stable I doubt that Mendip will run in that race.

15 Feb 2010 2:03 AM
Coldfacts

Steve,

I do not know if the Oklahoma bred colt Pleasant Storm has made it to your radar. He goes in the Southwest later and I think he merits attention. Below are some views on him by a reporter and his trainer Joe Petalin:

“Pleasant Storm remained undefeated in two starts when he closed from 10th to win the $60,000 Oklahoma Classics Juvenile on Nov. 22. He covered six furlongs in 1:10.80, one start after winning a maiden special weight at the same trip Oct. 17. Both races were at a distance less than optimum for Pleasant Storm.

"He's definitely going to be all two turns," said Joe Petalino, who trains Pleasant Storm. "I'm looking to stretch him out."

Petalino said Pleasant Storm's first distance test could come at Oaklawn. The track's initial route stakes for 3-year-olds is on Jan. 18, with the running of the $100,000 Smarty Jones at a mile. From there, the stakes build to the Arkansas Derby.

Pleasant Storm races for his breeder, Vickie Fixley. He is a son of the Pleasant Colony stallion Pleasant Tap.

"He's so big," Petalino said of Pleasant Storm. "He's almost 18 hands tall. He's a big 2-year-old. He towers me on level ground. I've got to look up at his withers. And he's got such a big stride to him”.

If this colt is really 18 hands and is capable of running 6F in 1:10 plus he is a potential monster. He is big, far striding with 1:10 speed and based on his trainers comments loaded with stamina. His sire Pleasant Tap remains one of the only horses in Breeder Cup history to run in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and Breeders Cup Classic. He was runner up on both occasions. Pleasant Tap destroyed Strike The Gold and A.P. Indy in the 1992 Jockey Gold Cup. A.P. Indy reversed the placing in the Breeders’ Cup Classic of the same year. Pleasant Tap best derby finisher was Tiago who finished either 6th or 7th and was 3rd in the Belmont. Could this Oklahoma bred colt he hiding in plain sight? Look for him to be closing hands over fist in the last furlong. Pleasant Tap was a quality racehorse and the Ribot line that has featured on the winners’ side of the derby chart twice is overdue. It is unthinkable that the first three finishers in a derby could go on the sire a winner of the great race. The 1992 derby was won by Unbridled.  The runner up was Summer Squall and the third Place finisher was Pleasant Tap. Unbridled went on the sire 1996 derby winner Grindstone. Summer Squall went on to sire the 1999 derby winner Charismatic.  Pleasant Tap now needs to sire a derby winner to seal the triple. It’s a long shot but strange history is made in the derby.

15 Feb 2010 9:13 AM
Slew

Maybe you should wait for the Risen Star to post your next top horses.  Ron the Greek and Maximus Ruler just may have their hooves full when Backtalk joins the fray. By Smarty Jones out of an Affirmed mare...his works have been sensational and rival Ron's times. But so far, I'm sticking with Ron the Greek and have taken notice of Dave in Dixie.  I thought he ran exceptionally well in the Robert B. Lewis.

15 Feb 2010 12:25 PM
Ranagulzion

COLDFACTS,

Your responses to Chuckles the Clown in defence of Mr Prospector dated Feb. 13 & 14 were excellent. Mr Prospector's sire Raise A Native has been identified in the past as a culprit in passing on brittleness along with brilliance to his progenies and Mr Prospector's great grandson Unbridled Song (very much like Raise A Native in throwing brilliance with brittleness) has created a bad rap for Mr P.  Overall the facts/statistics as you have diligently unearthed them exonerate Mr Prospector as the source of unsoundnes.  It is therefore disingenuous for "Chuckles" to say that his impact on the breed has been negative.  Chuckles the Clown should re-examine his position on the matter.  His use of Barbaro to support his position is rather fallacious.  Also, Uptowncharlybrown had only his third outing in the Sam Davis and is expected to improve significantly next time out. He has the very successful triple crown inbreeding and crossing of Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer within the first five generations so he'll be ripe and ready for the Derby.  

15 Feb 2010 6:47 PM
Ranagulzion

COLDFACTS,

Is your touting of Pleasant Storm to be taken as this year's version of your Summer Bird prediction last year?  Your admission in the last line of that post dated: 15 Feb 9:13am "its a long shot but strange history is made in the derby" says that you shouldn't be too dogmatic about some of your history-based conclusions.  Personally, I don't think Pleasant Storm will be ready for the Derby.  The Pleasant Tap offsprings invariably need more time to reach their peak performance level (usually as 4YOs and older).  Anyway good luck to you.  

I hope that you have been paying attention to the Todd squad and Rule on the weekend.  What an impressive specimen of a thoroughbred and he has lots of scope for improvement. Be prepared to eat some crow because Pletcher is on track for a possible exacta or trifecta in the Derby.  Like you said "strange history is made in the derby."  Those words you may not have to eat Pal(LOL).

15 Feb 2010 7:17 PM
zarvona

Zarvona’s Derby Notes as of mid Feb. following Pool #1;

                My annual Sports Writers Poll: as of opening Pool #1 Day, did reveal the following:

  #1)  “Lookin at Lucky”

 #2)-#3) tied: “Buddy’s Saint” & “Super Savor” !!

 #4)   “Eskendereya”

 #5.)  “Tiz Chrome”  …(likely to drop much lower after a poor weekend showing)…[[thinking that maybe Tiznow breds excel in speed at short distances early, but that it seems to take them awhile to get up to distance ahla “American Lion” also!]]…

close for all positions below:

 #6.)  “Maximus Ruler”

 #7.)  “American Lion” (likely to drop lower)

#8.)-#9.) tied:  “Drosselmeyer” & “Jackson Bend”

#10.)  “Lost Aptitude” … (which after this weekends runs & results will likely change radically…

 & at honorable mention within several points of the top ten were: “Interactif”; “Dave in Dixie”; “Rule”; “Dublin”; & “Stay Put”;

   If Pool # 1 was telling, first of all, the majority seem to feel that either we haven’t yet seen the Derby winner or that he wasn’t represented on the list presented with the #24 “all others” paying a most disappointing -3/2 odds, which makes one feel that they should have retained that money spent for another bet or another day or that the Pool in the future may want to drop the ‘field’ entrant as an option all together if they keep such low entry fields,--and thusly possibly just expand and add others & more names in the future!!!-- However, it did reveal that the fans did favor among those on the list at this juncture: “Lucking at Lucky” topping the list at 8-1 ; “Buddys Saint” 2nd at 10-1 ; “Super Saver”-“Drosselmeyer”-& “Dublin” all tied in to the three-four-five slots at 20-1; “Eskendereya” just behind at a close 6th at 22-1 ; “Rule” 7th at 24-1 ; “Vale of York” seemingly high and 8th at 26-1 ; “Dave in Dixie” in at 9th at 28-1 ; & “Ron the Greek” at a  surprising 10th at 31-1. However, the best prices in my own mind followed on the hopefuls “Conveyance” 11th at 33-1 ; “Noble’s Promise” 13th at 36-1 ; “William’s Kitten” 24th at 54-1; “Maximus Ruler” 23rd at 76-1 ; & “Concord Point” 24th at 99-1 ; where I wish I had spent more money on them than on my own layout on “the field”!!

    In any event, writing this before I submit this posting and before Steve’s –2/16 next dozen’s list appears, which I presume will not be out until after the running of the Southwest ?, (so much for that thought!!) I am going to speculate ahead of time, that we see undefeated “Caratortada” (old ‘scar face’) at 5   5  0  0 and “Drosselmeyer” sneak onto Steve’s next dozen!!! Maybe??

    Meanwhile, my question remains… why aren’t we hearing more about the likes of “Vale of York” the BC Juv. winner!!!; “Pounced”  6   5 1 0 with his 2nd and only loss being a mere ¼ length lost to everyone’s seeming favorite “Lookin at Lucky” ?? ; undefeated Canadian “Hollinger” at 4   4  0  0 ; Virginia’s own “Outlaw Man” with a 1 1/8 run in at 1:49.25; the undefeated  “Conveyance” at 3  3 0 0 ; and “Fly By Phil” with his own 1 1/8 run in at 1:48.17 ??; thusly, where do these rank & really stand versus everyone else’s favorite at this point or top dozen list at this juncture??!!! And, I am thusly still excluding the other non Early Derby Nominees!, some that I have previously mentioned, including the likes of:

               Billions Boy: (Kty.); $250K $$ Keenlander;   2      1    1    0  ;  1 1/16 (T) 1:41.21;

               Bim Bam: (Fla.); 1 1/6 (T) 1:41.73; 2nd 1 Mi. (T) 1:33.66; + head;  9      4    1    4  ; &

                                        winner 1  1/16  Hallendale Beach 1:42.07; + a nose over Interactif;  

               Bridgetown: (Fla.);  Call Shot: (Kty.);

                   Convoy Ahead: (Fla.); 3      3    0    0 ; 6 fur. 1:09. 84;    Ghost Fleet: (Ont.); 4      3    0    0  ;  

               Heart Butte: (Kty.):  1 1/8 (T) 1:51.02; Mdn.; 2      1    1    0 ;

               Nordic Truce: (Kty.); 1 Mi. (T) 1:35.18; + 4 ½;  2      2    0    0  ;

           & Our Commander: (g) (Md.);…and etc.; …. although I know we can’t fit all in 12 or 20 slots YET!!!!

    And please, stop with this silly attack that “they can’t come off the grass”!!! “Big Brown” not only came off the Turf, he was scheduled for a turf run after his layoff being his 2nd run that was taken off the Turf!!!

    And so, my top dozen awaiting further preps at this point:

 “Pounced” ; “Lookin at Lucky” ; “Buddy’s Saint” ; “Vale of York” ; “Super Saver” ; “Drosselmeyer” ;

“Outlaw Man” ; “Noble’s Promise” ; “Hollinger” ;  “Conveyance” ; “Caracortado” ; “Fly By Phil”;    

 ...and many many more do remain  on my ‘watch list’, which does now also include “Desert Lord” –by (“Elusive Quality”)

Tr. K. McLaughlin  !!

15 Feb 2010 7:23 PM
Slew

Coldfacts: Enough facts already.  Sometimes the plethora of information just clouds the issues.  I will however agree with you on one specific point...in the Robert B Lewis, I was most impressed by Dave in Dixie, and not Caracortado.  He was in an all out sprint and almost made it.  He also put American Lion and Tiz Chrome to shame with that closing. I really liked Take Control, but he's out of contention.  Ron the Greek has been most impressive so far....I'll be watching the Risen Star and the FOY to see how Buddy does.  My favorite from a Mr Prospector mare....Rock Hard Ten.  I think he's perfect, and doing great as a sire.  Keep an eye on an untested 3 yr old cold at the Fair Grounds turning in fantastic times in his works...Mine Train...by Mineshaft out of a Wild Again mare.  (I love my AP Indy colts).  And for the person who said Secretariat as a stallion has not produced...AP Indy...Telingua (dam of Storm Cat) and of course...Lady's Secret.  I think he's done very well.

16 Feb 2010 11:02 AM
Forbidden Apple

Secretariat is not known for being a great sire, although he has been a good broodmare sire.

16 Feb 2010 2:50 PM
Slew

Risen Star, General Assembly, Kingston Rule....all sired by Secretariat...all Classic winners.  But his fillies did perform better in racing and as broodmares.

17 Feb 2010 9:50 AM

Recent Posts

More Blogs

Archives