March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

 1

Eskendereya Todd Pletcher

Giant's Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew

So, where does he go from here? Monster wins on the Derby trail are nice, but you want to see his Fountain of Youth effort on the first Saturday in May. Hate the six weeks from the Fla. Derby, but it may actually help him, especially if he runs another corker.

 2

Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert

Smart Strike—Private Feeling, by Belong to Me

Eyebrows were raised after his un-Baffert-like 1:15 2/5 work, but Baffert said it was just what he was looking for and that the work was really 7 furlongs in 1:27 4/5. The champ silenced the doubters with a 7-furlong follow-up work in a bullet 1:25 1/5. Baffert has mentioned the Rebel as a possible next start. That would be quite a dirt initiation.

 3

Dublin D. Wayne Lukas

Afleet Alex—Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird

Big move up this week. As mentioned in our last column, his five-eighths of a mile sustained run gets more impressive the more you watch it. Don’t know if 10 furlongs is ideal, but there is enough stamina to go along with his talent, running style, and physical prowess to suggest he will. He’ll get a stiff test in the Rebel, and if he runs big again, the sky’s the limit.

 4

Caracortado Mike Machowsky

Cat Dreams—Mons Venus, by Maria’s Mon

The more you look at him the more you realize he’s as accomplished as any of them and has less to prove than most of them. Remember, he has won on dirt and has the perfect running style. There’s really nothing not to like.

 5

Super Saver Todd Pletcher

Maria's Mon—Supercharger, by A.P. Indy

Pletcher decided to give him the extra week and run in the Rebel instead of the March 6 Gotham; tough spot first time back. He certainly doesn’t have to win, but needs to take back off the pace and show he can close. Wintering at the farm is a bit unusual, so he also has to prove he’s the same horse as last year. If he answers both questions, he’ll move back into the top 2 or 3. Still feel he has as much potential as any of them.

 6

Discreetly Mine Todd Pletcher

Mineshaft—Pretty Discreet, by Private Account

Honestly don’t know where to put him, and won’t until he runs back. They practically handed him the Risen Star and he took advantage of it like a good horse will do. He needs to show he’s as effective from off the pace, but he’s rated before.

 7

Rule Todd Pletcher

Roman Ruler—Rockcide, by Personal Flag

These top four Pletcher horses can drive you batty trying to figure out a Kentucky Derby-winning scenario for them. We keep harping on their running style, and despite their talent, they could wind up their own worst enemy. He has tremendous potential, but still needs to prove himself against better quality horses.

8

Dave in Dixie John Sadler

Dixie Union—Risk, by Wavering Monarch

Worked five furlongs in a sharp :59 3/5. Sadler has to decide whether he wants to run him and Sidney’s Candy in the March 13 San Felipe against Caracortado or go out of town with one of them. Can’t wait to see what he can do on dirt. That’s the only thing keeping him out of the top five.

9

Odysseus Tom Albertrani

Malibu Moon—Persimmon Hill, by Conquistador Cielo

He had a lot of people climb on his bandwagon after that Tampa Bay Downs allowance romp, and we’ll find out March 13 if it was justified in the Tampa Bay Derby. He appears to have it all, and now it’s just a matter of passing his class test.

10

Conveyance Bob Baffert

Indian Charlie—Emptythetill, by Holy Bull

He’ll skip the Rebel and go right to the Arkansas Derby or Wood Memorial, which looks like a good move. He’s already won two graded stakes around two turns, both at a mile, and you don’t want to give him too many 9f races.

11

Noble’s Promise Ken McPeek

Cuvee—The Devil’s Trick, by Clever Trick

He’ll have only two starts before the Derby, but built up a solid foundation as a 2-year-old. Rebel will be a tough task first time back and first time on dirt, but we’ll at least get an idea whether he’s a serious Derby horse.

12

American Lion Eoin Harty

Tiznow—Storm Tide, by Storm Cat

Feel as if we didn’t seen anything near his best in the Lewis, and Leparoux left a lot in the tank. Big decision is whether to run him in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby or only once before the Derby, trying him on dirt in the March 28 Sunland Derby. Like Dave in Dixie, would love to see him on dirt.

To participate, use your cursor to drag the selections on the left to the blank placeholders on the right. Once you have completed ranking all of the horses, submit your entries and compare your results to the rest of the community. A first place ranking will earn 12 points, second place receives 11 points, and so on.

94 Comments

Leave a Comment:

trebloc

Three of the top five pointing towards the Rebel!  Would not be a bit surprised if Super Saver ends up staying in FL and running in the Tampa Derby. Calvin Borel riding RA on the 13th, so Ramon Dominguez gets the mount.

01 Mar 2010 2:13 PM
Steve Haskin

I agree. Tampa looks like a much better spot, and Pletcher has done OK there. I wouldnt be surprised either if he changes his plans.

01 Mar 2010 3:16 PM
Billy's Empire

I would also agree on that as well. That will not be an easy race to come into off a long layoff. Look what happened to Buddy's Saint. Just sayin... I think Super Saver is a complete STUD though and wish him the best.

I also agree with you 100% steve on Dave in Dixie. I can not wait to see him on dirt. I think he will improve dramatically.

01 Mar 2010 3:39 PM
Kyle S.

I'm a huge Dublin fan and the fact that Lookin At Lucky & Noble's Promise have choosen this race to kick off their respective campaigns does not worry me one bit.  If Dublin breaks cleanly and is able to settle into his stride early on(the two factors that cost him in the Southwest), everyone else is running for place money.

01 Mar 2010 4:32 PM
dave york

I asked you about Connemara last week and no response.  I do not understand how this magnificiently bred colt is not in your top three.

01 Mar 2010 5:42 PM
hoofprintsandhorseplay

Its March 1st - how can you put three horses on the list that still haven't started yet this season? Are the other horses that bad?

Caracortado might not be the best 3 yr old in his own barn as Nextdoorneighbor is all set for his coming out party in the rescheduled Sham.

Still hope to see Sidney's Candy hit the road for some two turn dirt action.

01 Mar 2010 5:43 PM
Johnny

Its all to early alot of fun though.

Horse that I have on my radar is Radiohead.

Watta ya think Steve?

01 Mar 2010 5:44 PM
L I Joe

I still think the Drosselmeyer race behind Discreetly mine was deceptively good. He goes out nice past the winner on the turn and I think he is just getting the engine warm in a 1 1/16th race with little pace. However, he still needs a way to find the winnings needed to get into the Derby. He is dangerous because he appears to have stamina and also has significant base being built from a series of 2 turn races on turf and dirt.

01 Mar 2010 5:57 PM
tcc

Steve:

Super Saver's options for his next race have been narrowed down to the Rebel or the Tampa Bay Derby.

01 Mar 2010 6:05 PM
Ranagulzion

STEVE,

There is every likelihood of a couple of no-hope, "hitmen" front runners in the Derby, behind which the Todd Squad stalkers can sit comfortably until about a half mile from home.  Then may the best horse prevail up the lane.  We could have an historic Pletcher sweep because Connemara is improving leaps and bounds as well as Discreetly Mine, to join Eskendereya, Super Saver and Rule.

01 Mar 2010 6:08 PM
RiverCitySmitty

Why are so many people saying "He`s already proven he can handle dirt" about Caracortado when his only race on it was a 4 furlong sprint in a maiden claimer at a county fair?

I agree with those who`ve stated Super Saver would face much easier in the TB Derby than the Rebel which will likely be loaded with highly regarded horses.

01 Mar 2010 6:19 PM
Virgil Fox

Florida Derby - With you on the six weeks.

Dave in Dixie – Looking forward to next.

Connemara – I realize the race was less than stellar according to the clock, but there was something about him that really kept my attention. Last to first and what appeared to be smooth action.  Looking forward to next.

- Peace

01 Mar 2010 6:33 PM
El Kabong

As far as Super Saver goes, Pletcher was too high on this horse last year and must be convinced he'll only need an initial blow out(Rebel) to see where the lungs are at and one tune up to get him to the 10 yard line. No wins are necessary, especially not in Rebel. I can't wait to see what is under the hood of this beast. Anyone who hasn't seen him run should pull up the Jockey Club from last november and the comments from the follow up press. And the pedigree on boths sides could not be better.

01 Mar 2010 6:42 PM
gogofan

      Dear Mr. Haskin,

        In my opinion, here's my

Derby Dozen:

1. Lookin At Looky

2. Caracortado

3. Conveyance

4. Rule

5. Noble's Promise

6. Dublin

7. Discreetly Mine

8. Dave in Dixie

9. Odysseus

10. Eskendereya

11. American Lion

12. Super Saver

     Sincerely,

        Kyle Stasierowski

        25-year-old horse racing fan, loyal TVG viewer, HRTV Live Feed viewer, TVG Community member,

Blood-Horse community member, and

Blood-Horse subscriber from

Alden, New York

01 Mar 2010 7:59 PM
christy tate

agree with eskendereya at number one, but only if he wins again,if the derby was a beauty contest, he'd win hands down ,but it's not which is why i also like rule or caracortado.

01 Mar 2010 8:00 PM
Zookeeper

Did anybody see the Borderland Derby @ Sunland Park on Saturday? What a gutsy pair of colts battling valiantly to the finish. Bouncing off each other as if in a demolition derby. Neither one really giving in. Storming Saint diminutive compared to his stable mate Raise the Bridle who won the race but was disqualified and placed second. They were all by themselves, the other horses far behind. Probably trying to settle some barn argument on the racetrack. :)

01 Mar 2010 9:00 PM
Northwind

I'd like to see Radiohead get into the mix.  He has a good two year old foundation, and now has a dirt win under his belt.  I'd like to see what he's got.

01 Mar 2010 9:18 PM
Glassoniongirl

It`s amazing how just one bad run by Buddy`s Saint can knock him from top 2 to off the chart. I question Haskin`s handicapping ability.

Has he not learned from history? Look at Secretariat as an example. He had bad days and he won the triple crown. The Belmont by 31 lengths.

01 Mar 2010 9:21 PM
Big G

I look at the FOY and I see everyone tripping all over themselves about what a powerful race Eskendereya ran and he all of a sudden he is everybodys # 1 KD horse, but I see it a little differently.   Sure he finished strong but he should be finishing strong with the S--L--O--W early fractions that were run in that race.   I hope everybody keeps jumping on his band wagon but I am not convinced he's that great and will be looking elsewhere. Unless  his Fl Derby is run similar to Big Brown's (you can YOUTUBE it) and he run fast early fractions and is still there in the end then I will be a believer but until then I will recommend Todd P. make him a closer versus a horse near the front end.  Not impressed with anyone he beat in the FOY think they were a weak bunch

01 Mar 2010 10:24 PM
Raven

The Derby list :

1. Super Saver;

2. Sidney's Candy;

3. Eskendereya;

4. Rule;

5. Caracortado;

6. Lentenor;

7. Vale of York;

8. Lookin at Lucky;

9. Ron The Greek;

10.Mendip;

11.Conveyance

12.Dave In Dixie

13.Noble,s Promise

14.American Lion

15.Dublin

16.Discreetly Mine

17.D'funnybone

18.Buddy's Saint;

19.Drosselmeyer;

20.Ron The Greek;

21.DryFly

22.Pounced

23.Aikenite

24.Radiohead

25. Stay Put

01 Mar 2010 10:27 PM
Gary

Saw FAST ALEX today. What a kick he has. One to watch.

02 Mar 2010 12:02 AM
Irish

I don't have a favorite this year which is odd, I usually have a favorite by March 1.  I like Buddy's Saint but agree with Mr. Haskin's decision to take him off the list.

Glassoniongirl, Secretariat never gave up when he got roughed up in a race.  His worst finish was a game 4th of 12 in his maiden race after he got pinched badly at the start.

Buddy's Saint didn't show any fight after he got roughed up.  That's not a good sign for a horse going to the Kentucky Derby.  Look at the past Derby charts.  Every year most of the horses get bumped, pinched, steadied, checked, stumble out of the gate, and so on.  It's not always the fastest horse that wins that race, it's often the horse with enough fight to persevere through that mess.

So I'm with Mr. Haskin, unless Buddy shows more fight in his next start, take him off the top 10 (or 12) lists.  That doesn't mean he's not a good racehorse.  It just means he's probably not ready for a bumper car race like the Kentucky Derby.        

02 Mar 2010 12:51 AM
mickey101

well for 3 or 4 weeks now ,i've been reading these top 10 list, now here's my top 7 list of horse's that don't have a prayer to win the derby...caracortado,connemara,conveyance,dave in dixie,dublin,rule and sidney's candy......this is all based on DOSAGE....no derby horse has won since 1940,except 2 hosre's.....1943 count fleet and 1950 middleground, a dosage under 16.....all of the above mentioned horse's are under 16.....as for dublin lucas is a has been,he would enter a poodle to just be around the back stretch on derby week.....before all you lucas fans start jumping up and down ,remember who his asst.were pletcher...asmussen.....until the string is broken I will not bet a horse with a dosage under 16 on derby day....steve I can't believe you get duked into this way of thinking.

02 Mar 2010 1:14 AM
Coldfacts

You moved Dublin up from #8 to #3 purely on repeated reviews of his Southwest performances. I recently review the performance of Super Saver in KJC and none of Dublin’s races are as impressive. Although Conveyance’s winning time of 1:36.94 is the fastest in the last four years, he ran the last two furlongs in 26.27. Your #3 ranked horse could not catch your #10 ranked horse who ran his last 2F in 26.27. The only reason Dublin got close was because Conveyance had to be used early to gain a suitable position. This resulted in the first 2F being run in a very fast 22.78. Let us assume Dublin did not encounter problems, do you believe he would finished close if he was stalking a 22.78, 46.25, 1:10.67 pace coming of his long layoff? Cardiff Giant was very close to the pace and it took its toll on him. Dublin will not beat Conveyance at any distance. There is no way you can justify the undefeated winner of the Southwest being ranked #10 and the runner up who benefited from winner’s the fast pace be ranked #3.

While I remain convinced that no horse from the Raise A Native line is likely win the 2010 Derby, I am positive that if one does it will not be Dublin. All the data associated with him indicate no possibility derby victory.

02 Mar 2010 1:35 AM
Pasturelands

One word for the Triple crown saga of 2010:  ANEMIC.

Is it just me, or is this year's crop of 3rd years NOT as exciting nor consistent as those of last year's?  Friesian fire, Pioneer of the Nile, Dunkirk, Munnings, General Quarters, SummerBird... were power houses, as in "POWER."  they won before, during, and after the TC with panache.

Whatever happened NOW??  When the TC starts pinning its hopes on a single runner with just 1 major win (ESKANDEREYA) while the rest are "hopefuls", you have the feeling that its going to be LIKE one of those boring afternoons with your professor lecturing away for 3 hours on sub-atomic structures -- wish to yourself that you weren't there.

Whatever happened to all the good horses?  did they all VANISH IN THIN AIR??

02 Mar 2010 2:09 AM
Nancyb

A horse named D'Funnybone has got to be in there somewhere.

02 Mar 2010 5:39 AM
Felix J. Sandoval-Orozco

I think that finally, Mr. Pletcher has agood opportunity to win his first Kentucky Derby; and this is a great opportunity for John Velazquez to recover his leadership in his profession.

02 Mar 2010 7:07 AM
PBabyboy2008

WHAT ABOUT SOARING EMPIRE. He just won an allowance race going seven furlongs at Gulfstream.  He is 2 for 3 lifetime with his only loss coming in the Iroquios Stakes last November in which he had a bad trip got jammed up as he was making his move down the stretch still got third though...WATCH OUT FOR THIS COLT!

02 Mar 2010 8:24 AM
Slew

With too few prep races this past week, it's hard to gauge anyone. I'm still with Ron the Greek, Dave in Dixie, including Buddy's Saint, and Backtalk if he gets blinkers...that is one fast but unruly colt.  Dublin is my front runner for now...but that could change.  Unimpressed by Odysseus, and still haven't seen LatL race this year.  It's difficult at this point to actually point to any contender and say..."That's my Derby horse!".

02 Mar 2010 8:26 AM
LH1216

You don't even have this year's derby winner in your top 12... That's ok though. The less publicity Ron gets, the better the odds will be. =)

What's really difficult is filling a trifecta with that many talented horses. This should be a great derby.

02 Mar 2010 8:29 AM
the_wiz

Big G,

FYI Eskendereya ran some very respectable fractions in his FOY.

You cite Big Brown as a measuring stick and if you look at BB's KY. Derby he ran the same fractions of 1:36.4 for the mile that Eskendereya ran and BB's 1 1/8 time of 1:49.1 was actually slower than the 1:48.8 that Eskendereya ran in the FOY. Also keep in mind that Eskendereya is just getting cranked up and BB was at full throttle in the Derby. Furthermore Eskendereya had no reason to go any faster. Would you have been more impressed if they had won by 20 and ran far faster than they had to? What a waste that would have been when the ultimate prize is months down the road. That's when they want to be peaking. I see plenty of potential in Eskendereya and am looking forward to watching how he progresses.

Steve,

I'm anxious to see Dave In Dixie on dirt. I think he may be this years IWR as far as that transition goes. He ran an awfully good race finishing behind Caracortado and both of those horses ran at a very good pace. Either of those two are a big threat in my opinion at this stage of the game.

Wasn't really impressed with Discretly Mine but that race was run oddly and I'll wait to see the next out for all the top 4 finishers. My guess is wherever they all go the race will be run much differently and we will get a better handle on how they stack up.

I'm hoping they ship Lookin At Lucky out to run on dirt so we can get a better handle on him as well. Based on last years performances he and Super Saver belong in the top 10 until we see how they shape up this year. Both do need to pick it up from last year though. Those races aren't good enough to win the big one this year. It's still way early but this is my favorite time of the racing season,the buildup to the big one. After the Triple Crown Races I look to Saratoga while following what comes in between on a lesser scale.  

02 Mar 2010 8:41 AM
Linda in Texas

Steve, nowhere else to post this, but thank you so much for the super news about Kip Deville. And Kudos to Mr. Iavarone for not cashing him in for insurance. Kip deserved the extra care as he earned it!

Re: The List: Not a one on the list that i as a novice would even think of disputing. You are the expert here.

So much going on with so many great horses and races, i feel like a glutton just being able to take it all in.

Sunland Park is only 500 miles from me and i plan to take that in on the 28th of March! And then on to Arkansas!!!

02 Mar 2010 8:52 AM
rb

Glad to see Noble's Promise has received a little credit, only Lookin at Lucky could top him in 2009. They all are very talented horses, but they will need there running shoes to beat Noble's Promise. He will be very tough in the Rebel, we will see just how could the others are!!!!

02 Mar 2010 9:08 AM
jon

I still have not given up on Lentenor, who is entered in both the Florida Derby and Hallandale Stakes this month. Looks like Matz has confidence in Lentenor on the dirt. If he wins either race, then Lentenor would be a favorite in the Derby. Lentenor was the victim of a slow pace last out, and ran a race very similar to Secretariat in The 1973 Wood, in which Angle Light got loose on the lead.

Blind Luck is my filly choice to win the Derby if her connections decide to back away from The Oaks. Maybe she ought to run in The Wood, which would let her challenge the boys.

02 Mar 2010 10:05 AM
blackgold77

I wish someone could tell me what happened to Western Smoke

02 Mar 2010 10:53 AM
It Aint Easy being good

I agree not to count out lentenor yet especially since he has some experience under his belt. I agree that the derby is usually won from off the pace these front runners like rule, eskandrya, conveyance have no chance because they will finally experience mud in the face. Horses like dublin and connemara are used to passing horses. I agree that connemara cant be overlooked. Haha dosage throw that crap out the window what was mind that birds dosage last year?

02 Mar 2010 11:17 AM
Forbidden Apple

1-Buddy's Saint 2-Conveyance

3-Lookin At Lucky 4-Lentenor

5-Connemara 6-Caracortado

7-Super Saver 8-Eskendereya

9-Vale Of York 10-Uptowncharlybrown

11-Dave In Dixie 12-Ron The Greek

13-Nobles Promise

02 Mar 2010 11:22 AM
Shelby's Best Pal

Wow--the Rebel is shaping up to be quite a race.  Be there or be square!

02 Mar 2010 11:29 AM
cek

In the Risen Star the winner was out there walking the dog. Take a hard look at the 5th place horse Stay Put. Closed the last quarter in 24 flat and last 16th in 6 1/5 and only got beat 2 3/4 lenghts. La. Derby 16th longer and with any pace will be closing late. He shows the longer the distance the stronger he gets.

02 Mar 2010 11:41 AM
Keelerman

Hi Steve,

This is my first post here, but I've been reading your Derby Dozen for a couple of years now.

I've been posting my personal Top 20 choices for the Triple Crown on my blog for a couple of months now... my current #1 is Dublin, followed by Lookin at Lucky--can't wait to see them race again.

Keelerman, age 14

www.triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com

02 Mar 2010 12:34 PM
RiverCitySmitty

With Pletcher cornering the market on graded earnings to date there are quite a few possibles that will have no margin for error in their preps.  Both highly touted Lentenor and Odysseus have ZERO graded money.  Moojab, who ran away from Odysseus in their debut race hasn`t got a penny.  Same for Fast Alex who looked very good winning yesterday in coming from off on a sealed track going two turns.  He`ll be thrown to the wolves in the upcoming La. Derby.  Drosselmeyer has about a dollar and a quarter in earnings and is another who needs a win in his next race.  I`d like to see the graded money list not use sprint races or maybe 2 yo races should be discounted.  Winning a stakes in July @ 5 1/2 furlongs should not guarantee a horse in the starting gate @ CD.  

02 Mar 2010 12:46 PM
suitcase

American Lion,s next start will be the San Felipe March 13th.

02 Mar 2010 1:56 PM
Jon

Lookin at Lucky needs to show that he still has winning form from last year-until then he's a question mark.

The "Y" factor is Blind Luck. She doesnt appear on this list but has consistently run faster times than many of the boys and hasnt ruled out Saturday in lieu of Friday  

02 Mar 2010 2:30 PM
Steve Haskin

Dave York, I did answer you. Top 3?

Tcc, The Tampa Derby would seem to be a more logical spot for Super Saver than the Rebel.

Welcome Keelerman, I will check out your blog.

I admit I probably havent given Ron the Greek the love he deserves lately, but I want to see him repeat his LeComte. Theres just too many horses to consider.

02 Mar 2010 5:55 PM
Householder

Loved Lookin at Lucky's most recent work.  All systems go for the 2 year old champ.  

02 Mar 2010 6:28 PM
Householder

Jon.  Based on Amen Hallelujah's performance last Saturday, you have to like Blind Luck. She was 10 in front of this one at Hollywood Park.  She closed well at a mile with a crawling pace last out, neither of which she wants any part of.  King Jerry gave her last performance an "A-." He could have another Light Lite for a lot less money (11,000).    

02 Mar 2010 6:33 PM
WPSPlayer

Being a Dual-Qualifier and with Storm Bird and one of my favorites "Siler Hawk" in his bloodline this one's future may be as a SUPERIOR turf runner.  His physical attributes are awesome and D.Wayne is due a Nice Surprise for his connections and the Industry itself!!

02 Mar 2010 8:35 PM
Pasturelands

My bet: none of the above will get the roses this may on DDay.  I think no other year has there been soo many DARK HORSES running.  So it doesn't make sense to break your skull "guessing".. chances are you won't hit anything.

I think the "Filly" camp is MORE exciting... GO, GO RACHEL!!

03 Mar 2010 7:18 AM
Slew

Gee Steve, none in your top 12, and none in your "other 8".  Where are the Fillies???  Blind Luck, Amen Hallelujah, Christine Daae???? I was impressed by Amen, willing to give She Be Wild another try, and anxiously waiting for Hot Dixie Chick to debut.

03 Mar 2010 10:50 AM
Jim Ponte

Steve: I know you have a lot of

derby contenders to keep up with, However, your March 3rd article left Dublin out of the mix. Based on his Southwest charge he's up there.

03 Mar 2010 11:53 AM
Carlos in Cali

I thought Ron The Greek ran his race in the Risen Star considering the crawling splits they set.But,I'd like to see him up-closer to the pace in his next start,maybe blinkers will keep him involved earlier.If he's still around, the notoriously wicked pace of the Derby will be to his liking especially with so many front runners on the Trail.

Steve, any idea as to where Odysseus,Fly Down & First Dude will be pointed towards?

03 Mar 2010 1:39 PM
Carlos in Cali

Oops....I noticed Odysseus is going in the TB Derby which is logical. The possibilty of him and Rule battling it out is a must see race,along with the other usual surprise/last minute entrants.

03 Mar 2010 1:50 PM
Steve Haskin

Slew, you seem shocked I have no fillies, even though the trainers of those fillies have said as of now they are pointing for the Oaks. Should I not believe them and and put them on anyway, just because they're fillies?

Jim Ponte, I left Dublin out of what mix? Why would I write about him on March 3, which is today, and what article are you talking about? I have him ranked #3. That's not mentioning him?

We'll prbably see Fly Down and First Dude in either the Tampa Derby or Florida Derby. There arent many top-name stakes horses around to run in the Fla. Derby except Eskendereya and possibly D'Funnybone, who could run in the Swale.

03 Mar 2010 3:39 PM
Rachel

Jon, Blind Luck cannot have the "Y" factor, LOL, she's a filly, she has to have the "XX" factor ;-)

I liked Balktalk's race...I never saw a colt get bounced around so much in a 4 horse race! He handled it all really well, was willing to move between the two that had bounced all over him and he had nice acceleration and handled the mud well...he's a neat little horse.

03 Mar 2010 4:43 PM
Slew

Well Steve, with apologies, I realize the situation you are in.  But 143 fillies are nominated for the Oaks, and 8 fillies were nominated early to the Ky Derby.  Which 8 fillies are they?  I suppose time will tell, but I do believe a few are more than capable Derby contenders.

03 Mar 2010 5:39 PM
El Kabong

For the record,

the apparent one dimensional speed, especially that in Pletchers barn, is just that. Big Brown seemed pretty one dimensional prior to the Derby, and I thought this might be his achilles heal. We all know what happened. Kent rated him masterfully as if he had won every race that way in 6th place, and did so on  very avg. fractions 23, 47, 1:11(much slower than what BB ran in the FLA Derby up front).  At the mile marker it was over. He swept passed and made confetti of my tickets. Smart horses with a good jockey will do the right thing. Class dismissed.

03 Mar 2010 6:49 PM
WADE

Where is Buddy's Saint..? How is it that he went from number 1 to number 12 then off the list in 2 weeks?! I would not lose hope in this horse, he had a green/bumpy race, but his jockey said he came back to run at the end. I do not understand why horses like Odysseus and Conveyance are on the list. Odysseus has won an allowance, so many horses have won allowances in what you call impressive style. Why not stick to raw talent in Buddy's Saint? One bad race should not put him off the list. Lookin At Lucky has not even raced this year, or ever on dirt. The Kentucky Derby is on dirt, and not all horses handle dirt flying in their faces.

03 Mar 2010 8:22 PM
Coldfacts

Zookeeper,

I watched the bouncing match in the stretch of Borderland Derby as well. Sometimes it is amusing occurrences’ that bring to our attention some horses. Storming Saint the promoted winner was purchased for only $12,000. Can you believe he was more expensive than Mine That Bird who was purchased for $9000? He has an intriguing pedigree. Many posters will laugh at many assessment of this colt but colt facts are what they are.

His sire Sweetsouthernsaint stands for mere $3,500. However, those with very short memories will not remember that he was the sire on the 2006 Illinois Derby winner and off time derby favorite Sweetnorthernsaint. In the ill fated Preakness that featured the horrific breakdown of Barbaro, Sweetnorthernsaint was runner-up to the brilliant Bernardini. It is therefore unwise to dismiss the sire of this colt in spite of his modest stud fee and his less than stellar track record.

His unraced dam was sired by Storm Bird who just happens to be sire Storm Cat and Summer Squall. Storm Bird is also the sire of Classy Mirage the dam of much heralded Dublin, the #3 ranked colt in Steve’s dozen.  Is Storming Saint as good as Dublin because they share dam sire? Records reflect a resounding ‘No’ However, many past derby winners were never the better horses, just the best on the day. Storm Bird’s exploits as a broodmare sire is equally as good. He was broodmare sire of Kentucky Derby & Belmont winner Thunder Gulch and Birdstone who foiled Smarty Jones Triple Crown bid. His unraced second dam was sired by the incomparable Secretariat. My records reflect that the great chestnut has never featured o the dam side of a derby chart. I have not given up hope that he will as some things take a lot longer to occur on the derby chart. Could the second dam of Storming Saint have an abundance of the great one’s ability in her gene pool? You never know!  This what make this colt’s pedigree intriguing; Storm Bird a son of Northern Dancer, is a representative of one of the most successful broodmare line in Triple Crown history. The broodmare line has produces 18 winners of TC races in the last 18 years. Secretariat was broodmare sire of Storm Cat, A. P Indy and Cigar. His broodmares are therefore capable of producing champions. He is overdue to feature in dam line of a derby winner. Many are of the opinion that it’s only matter of time before either an A P Indy or a Storm Cat broodmare will get Secretariat on the dam side of the derby board. The diminutive Storming Saint could surprise all. Is it possible for a $9000 derby winner to be followed by a $12000? The derby is known for creating unimaginable history.

Assault was entered in the 1946 derby as a rabbit for his stable companion in what was his 3YO debut. He made all for his first career victory and went on to win the TC. In 2005, 50-1 Giacomo achieved a grinding victory over a game 78-1 Closing Argument for what was to be the largest exotic bet pay-out in derby history. The track at Churchill Downs has a way of transforming DNA on the 1st Saturday in May.

03 Mar 2010 10:41 PM
tcc

Steve:

Mendip is owned by Godolphin and is said to be one they might want to send to the Kentucky Derby. He has a rating of 100 and will be ridden by Frankie Dettori. A son of Harlan's Holiday out of the Coronado's Quest mare Well Spring, Mendip was bred in Kentucky by Jayeff B Stables.

03 Mar 2010 10:42 PM
Meganator

Hi Steve!

I was just wondering if you have heard any news of Eightyfiveinafifty, and how he is doing after the Whirlaway debacle? We own a half-sister to his dam, I would love any news at all!

Many thanks.

04 Mar 2010 10:51 AM
It Aint Easy being good

Wadde your talking about looking at lucky who hasnt raced but your talking about a horse that has raced and got 9th place. You talk about conveyance but bring up no good points. He has never lost won his first dirt race and has a hall of fame trainer what else do you want??????????

04 Mar 2010 10:57 AM
trebloc

I guess we don't have to worry about Vale of York.  

04 Mar 2010 11:01 AM
Popcorne

Why no one is doing the Oaks Dozen? It would be interesing too.

04 Mar 2010 11:37 AM
Matthew W

Caracortado in the Lewis: two lengtths off a 47 2/5 half, which means he ran faster early than in the three other graded stakes races run at Santa Anita that same day--and two of those races were for older horses---he has a high cruising speed AND can kick--he's by a son of Storm Cat--THE sire of sires! He's well bred! There's nothing not to like, he gets two turns--I believe the West has some really nioe three year olds this year, and Caracortado is #1 on my list, as of right now--of corse, Escandareya is #1 overall, based on that monster race--am hearing some nice things about Nextdoorneighbor, as well....and COLDFACTS: the slow final 1/4 by Conveyance, to me, shows he's a GOOD horse...a pace horse that slows down late/yet wins--that is a sign of a good one, as he won despite having run fast early--I was more impressed with his Rebel than Dublin's Rebel--that race was set up for a closer to WIN!... Discreetly Mine ran SLOW early, he won like a front runner SHOULD win---Conveyance won like a front runner (usually) does not win--on a tiring lead, very much like the Horse Of The Year in the Woodward, he may not get the 1 1/4--he IS a good horse!...finally, twenty four years ago, a skinny black horse, in his orange silks/with matching orange blinkers...running like an armadillo, with his nose sweeping the ground...running on the pace, uaually fast---going 3,000 mi to romp in the Florida Derby/then another 3,000 mi back to romp in Santa Anita Derby and being called a "superhorse" by Trevor Denham, only to fold into the Derby Pace on First Sat--but Snow Chief and Mel Stute showed them in the Preakness, didn't they? Please--PLEASE--put Mel Stute in the Hall---its where he belongs!

04 Mar 2010 11:49 AM
Matthew W

Running a filly v males is just not smart! 1 1/4 are you kidding me? Blind Luck is hundreds of lbs of muscle smaller than Zenyatta or Rachel Alexandra--I love Blind Luck, go get the Eclise with her, going in the Derby, even for a colt/gelding is a very tall task, something that really takes a toll on a horse--better to have a nice filly for the whole year, as there is really no economic reason to try it--Hollendorfer's got a real player on the national stage, I wish him and Blind Luck the very best! I think because of the recent successes of some super fillies, people want to try fillies v males more---I think that is a mistake.

04 Mar 2010 11:57 AM
marktoothaker

Was at GP on Sunday to watch Chritine Daae, although it was a allowance race, she looked Fantastic physically and visually in her race. Could make some real noise in the Oaks. Giants Causeway could become the next dominant sire with a huge showing by progeny in Derby and Oaks. We need someone to step up and replace Storm Cat, Danzig, and a horse like AP Indy who is not gettig any younger. Will be at OP for Rebal if good lord willing.

04 Mar 2010 2:37 PM
Forbidden Apple

I just tried finding out some more details on Mendip at Dubairacingclub.com. Can someone please tell me where I can find results for the Dubai races?

Mendip pulled away from the field with ease, I love Coronado's Quest on the dams side. I liked this colt after his previous race in Dubai. I think Vale of York is more of a turf horse, I will scratch him off from my derby bakers dozen list and replace him with MENDIP!

04 Mar 2010 5:19 PM
Armaan

Forbidden Apple you can find  the results of Dubai races at emiratesracing.com and you can find information about Mendip at godolphin.com

04 Mar 2010 5:28 PM
Forbidden Apple

I tried emiratesracing and dubairacingclub, the results page is not working at the moment. I was wondering what the fractions were from today's race. Mendip looked great and pulled away like a serious horse, very professional.

04 Mar 2010 6:58 PM
Footlick

Forbidden Apple- Dettori said he keeps improving every start.  Vale of York ran like a short horse.  They said he was behind on his preparations, and this was a prep race, but I really feel they were not going to send him to the Derby anyway.  Just by the way they started to talk about him maybe going to Europe instead.  It was a surprise to see the Sheikh's son, Sheikh Rashid, decide to keep Conveyance in the States.  He also owns Richard's Kid, who is being sent over for the Dubai Cup.

04 Mar 2010 7:09 PM
zarvona

  Regarding the fillies: Pool #2 was very close to have gotten out a most reasonable collection!

  Firstly, one asked who the eight filly 'Derby Nominees' were, well, they were: “Ailalea”; “Blind Luck”; “Christine Daae”; “Crisp”; “Cozi Rosie”; “Devil May Care”; “She Be Wild”; and “Switch”, which means little more than the trainers convinced the owners to spend $600.00 early just in case.  

  Notably however, most all have a distance rating around or above the ‘Tomlinson’ average of 320 ! However, in that category, “Cozi Rosie” leads the pact with a whopping 404! She of course is followed by, “Negligee” at (384); “She Be Wild” (383); “Evening Jewel” (381); “Tidal Pool” (375); and “Crisp” at (375); and etc., where in comparison “Blind Luck” only measures in with her respectable above average figure of (327),--(if you are already on her bandwagon!),--being much nearer to average in comparison. However, I strongly suggest that one review all these gals’ past performances before jumping on or into any future wager! Additionally notable, and besides the highly respected “Christine Daae” at (356);

“Amen Hallelujah”, another promising gal, registers in at a current (352). “Devil May Care” at (350); “Sassy Image” (355); “Jody Slew” (352); and “Quiet Temper” at (357),--and etc.,--rounding out the remainder of those that are a smidgen above average at this juncture in measuring the group for distance, and that all being at this stage, only the first week in March!

  For some comparison, let’s compare the above list to a few of the leading, being talked about colts at this juncture. “Looking at Lucky” (308): “Eskendereya” (336); “Caracortado” (312); “Connemara” (325);

“Super Saver” (372); “Dublin” (276); “Conveyance” (219);  “Vale of York” (270); “Buddy’s Saint” (259); and etc.

  Yes, and do add “Mendip” to your Derby watch lists, as obviously, getting the distance is no issue there!!

  Good luck to all this weekend! AND GO  “OUTLAW MAN”!!!

04 Mar 2010 7:39 PM
Big G

Hey Wiz

I stand by my statement.  Eskendereya ran a nice race but not a monster race.   You compared his time to Big Brown's time in the Kentucky Derby (remember though started from the 20 hole that day and ran a wide race for the most part)  but I was comparing the same racing surface, Gulfstream Park .  Take look at the follow fractions.  Both run at 1 1/8 mi

Big Brown Fl Dby   Qual Rd  Donn

1/4   22.79           1/4 23.21

1/2   45.83           1/2 46.02

3/4  1:10.08          3/4 1:09.87

1M   1:35.18          1M  1:34.78

1 1/8 1:48.16      1 1/8  1:47.49

These are monster races Quality Roads was a new track record and BB was from the 12 hole.

Compare these times to Eskendereya in the FOY and again his was a nice race but not a "monster race".  I expect him to win the Florida Derby if he runs against the same cast of characters but if his fractions are similar to FOY and he is near the front end I will not like him in the KD Derby unless he is taken well off the pace and comes with a Big run in the end.   If he runs fractions similiar to BB and QR in the Fl Derby and is near the front end like in the FOY he will change my mind about the KD Derby !!!

04 Mar 2010 8:44 PM
Slew

Okay........I've finally seen the colt that I've found most impressive.  Beautiful conformation, can go the distance, fight off a mob, and has a lot of speed.  I can only hope that he comes to the Derby.  I hate to appraise him from seeing only one race, but I thought Mendip was awesome at Meydan.  He's my front runner while still clinging to Ron and Dave, Backtalk and Dublin.

05 Mar 2010 9:48 AM
Forbidden Apple

Thank you Footlick. I just picked up saturday's DRF and they did list the final time of 1:59 2/5 for 1 3/16, turtle like. Even though the time was super slow, Mendip looks like he has a very bright future and he looks to be bred for dirt. He is on my radar for sure as the U.S. horses are average at this point. My top 3 for the KY Derby as of today are Buddy's Saint, Conveyance, and Connemara.

05 Mar 2010 12:15 PM
Caracortado

Did anybody see TIZ A NIGHT race. in race5 on 3/5/2010 at Santa Anita. It was a maiden race for 3yrs old.

1 1/16 it was a great race Tiz a Night was leading the race comfortably, going down the stretch he was rough up at the lead against a good horse name Saw Perfection.  Tiz a Night was beat but then he came back to win it in a very exciting race.  You guy's should check it out.  Tiz a Night look like his daddy (TIZNOW) in that race.....  BEAUTIFUL..

06 Mar 2010 12:43 AM
Armaan

Mendip is sure to come for the derby becayse he hasn't run on the turf. All of his three starts have been on synthetics. I think its an easy decision for godolphin to bring him to the states  because unlike Vale of York Mendip has no turf future as of right now. The only  thing that can stop him from  coming here is that if he runs terribly in the UAE derby, which seems highly unlikely because he is too much of a talent to let that happen. Although he hasn't run on the dirt but he has a very strong dirt pedigree.The other thing that encourages me about Mendip is that he has been running against full fields of 14 plus horses and that experience can come handy in the Kentutucky derby. I don't think he will be fancied in the states even if he runs well in the UAE derby.

06 Mar 2010 1:00 AM
Destin

Steve,

Any thoughts on Lukas replacing thompson with C. Nak? Will that move him up in your mind? Hinder him? Seems the horse runs well for hungrier jockeys, Thompson, Theriot or maybe it is just a T thing.

06 Mar 2010 8:53 AM
Matthew W

Just threw down on the folowing: Caracortado, American Lion and Connemara for the Derby futures, a fool's bet if there ever was one---that's me, all right! Connemara is flying under the radar, with his low Beyers--and his great breeding! (and obvious staying power!)

06 Mar 2010 10:38 AM
Battfist

You better put Alphies Bet on the list.  

What a beauty!

06 Mar 2010 6:42 PM
Ranagulzion

Awesome Act finessed his way into the fray with his smashing victory in the Gotham today. This is a very nice colt with outstanding pedigree. He has the Rasmussen factor, being inbreed to Natalma within the first five generations, through Northern Dancer and Raise The Standard. His second dam is also inbred to Almahmoud through Natalma and Cosmah. With the accleration power of the Northern Dancer-Blushing Groom cross on top clearly evident and Mr Prospector close up in the tail female family together with the aforementined inbreeding to superior broodmares, this colt is a "bred-in-the-purple" Derby contender. Being by Awesome Again, he is only going to get better as the season wears on.  I really like this one.  He comes knocking hard on the door of my top five in only his first start on dirt.  Like Radiohead last week this English raider won with authority but has a lot more upside to him. It will be interesting to see where he lands in Steve's revised Derby Dozen next week.

06 Mar 2010 9:58 PM
Zookeeper

Coracortado,

I saw a replay of the race Tiz A Knight won. Talk about the apple not falling far from the tree. Gritty just like his dad Tiznow!

Another member of the Tizzy clan, this one by Tizbud (full brother to Tiznow) came in second in the 2nd race at SA today. His name is Tiz Folly. Didn't look like much on paper but ran his heart out from beginning to end.

Mr. Haskin, Nextdoorneighbor didn't do well today, I was disappointed. Would have loved to see this Lido Palace colt win or place. What do you think of Alphie's Bet?

06 Mar 2010 10:43 PM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

What do Scat Daddy, War Pass and Rock Hard Ten have in common? Their dams were all sired by Mr. Prospector. He sired 511 dams and none to date has produced the winner of a Triple Crown race. Scat Daddy was very impressive winning the Champagne, Florida Derby and Fountain Of Youth on rout to the derby. He finished 19th. I do not believe Awesome Act will effectively stay 10F. Setsuko is another colt who was produced from a Mr. Prospector broodmare. It appears he has an abundance of stamina. Both colts were sired by Breeders Cup Classic winners. Only one derby winner to date has been sired by a BCC winner. My conservative estimate is that about 17 BCC winners took stud duties in the US. It is therefore reasonable to conclude that it will take an exceptionally brilliant prodigy of a BCC winner to win the derby. Do you consider either Awesome Act or Setsuko to be exceptionally brilliant? I have not confidence that a Mr. Prospector mare will produce a derby winner.

07 Mar 2010 12:55 AM
Coldfacts

Zookeeper,

Below is an extract from a previous post about Nextdoorneighbo

‘The only thing I like about this colt is his unique pedigree.  While the Northern Dancer broodmare line has enjoyed record breaking success, the Icecapade broodmare line has never featured on the derby chart. Both Northern Dancer and Icecapade were sired by Nearctic. Nextdoorneighbor’s dam was sired by Wild Rush a grandson of Icecapade. There is also another negative regarding his dam. Her success on the track (Earnings $612K) and graded race success literally disqualifies her as potential derby winning broodmare. Even in the era of high purses no derby winning broodmare has had that sort of success on the track. These types of mares do not produce Derby champions.’

07 Mar 2010 12:57 AM
zarvona

"Alphie's Bet" was great and is now in my top ten, but WOOOO HOOOO "Paddy O'Prado" may be the answer we were all looking for!!!

07 Mar 2010 2:27 AM
Derby Dew

Steve,

I'm anxious to hear your comments on Awesome Act.  His stirring win in the Gotham having just got off the plane and it being his first start since the BC, was impressive.  With four weeks to acclimate and train at Aqueduct, he should be primed for a big effort in the Wood.  A Derby contender, for sure.

Only concern about the Gotham was the relatively weak field this year.  What was all the noise about WOW, WOW, WOW?  Another "hot air" tip from the Lukas barn that fizzled.  Dublin is the only legit chance D Wayne has to make it to  the Derby, but wear the roses?  No way he even hits the board.  

Looking forward to this weekend's preps, particularly, the San Felipe.  Have an eye on American Lion who's expected to kick it up a notch from a good effort off the layoff in the Lewis.  If the Lion wins, Msr. Leparoux will have to chose between the Act and the Lion as the Wood and SA Derby are run on the same day (Apr. 3rd).  Laisie les bon temps rolle!  Things are finally starting to heat up.

07 Mar 2010 7:31 AM
RiverCitySmitty

I bet Alphie, but think the field in the Sham was far from stellar.  Awesome Act`s win was even more impressive basically did it straight off the plane.  I think he had a work in England Tuesday and was then in quarantine for 2 or 3 days before the race.  I`ve put him on my "maybe" list for down the road.

07 Mar 2010 8:12 AM
Matthew W

Alphie's Bet is Cali all the way--Cali owners/Cali Breeders/Cali Jock/and Cali Breeding Stock!...I love it! I pine for the days of the Cali Big Horse! As far as I am concerned, Caracortado is on top out here, and Alphie's Bet will get the 1 1/4--look out! The fourth Cal Bred Derby Winner is on the horizen! I have only seen one Eastern Based horse that has impressed me as much as Caracortado and Alphie's Bet, so why not? It's been, what, 55 years since a Cal bed won the Roses? They are DUE!

07 Mar 2010 1:59 PM
Caracortado

Wow I saw Tiz Folly in that race and wow he is good very good.  Was block inside the rail open up and almost take care of business.  He sure is one to follow up in upcoming race.

I was surprise of Alphie Bet he could be a handful in the SA Derby.

07 Mar 2010 2:19 PM
Ranagulzion

COLDFACTS,

Over the last decade Mr Prospector, alongside Northern Dancer, has been the greatest influence on breeding of Kentucky Derby winners, being present within the first three generations of six of the last ten Derby winners (fact check the pedigrees of Mine That Bird, Street Sense, Barbaro, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide and Fusaichi Pegasus).  The only significant position he has yet to fill is the Broodmare sire position and that may be only a matter of time my friend. There is no genetic law that precludes that outcome. The law of averages suggests that it can happen just like it did with Fusaichi Pegasus winning the Derby from his last crop of 3YOs. I'm not saying this is the year because beating Eskendereya, Super Saver and Rules will be like climbing mount Everest for any 3YO this year, on the evidence so far but Awesome Act certainly has a live shot.  

07 Mar 2010 5:34 PM
Ranagulzion

ZARVONA,

I wonder why are you breaking your "Storm Cat line rule" to put Alphie's Bet into your top ten.  Also, the excitement over turf horse Paddy O'Prado is mystifying. This one has only turf pedigree with no Derby-winning influences in his tail-female family and a maiden win, albeit in a turf stakes, gives you cause for celebration?  Attractive odds are worth nothing and can be very costly if the horses have no shot.

07 Mar 2010 5:46 PM
zarvona

FEELING THE NEED FOR SPEED ?????????????????

..and not forgetting about the distance issue!! In actuality, “Caracortado” now looks that much more attractive having beaten “Alphie’s Bet” last out in retrospect…but , someone posted earlier the following times of “Big Brown” and “Quality Road”, obviously two of this generations super horses:  

“Big Brown” in the “Florida Derby” (notably from gate 12):  

¼  :22.79; ½  :45.83; ¾  1:10.08; 1 Mi. 1:35.18;  1 1/8:  1:48.16;

                                                                         … & his :22.98; closing finish!

“Quality Road” Donn track Record:

¼  :23.21; ½  :46.02; ¾  1:09.87; 1 Mi. 1:34.78; 1 1/8:  1:47.49;

                                                                         … & his :22.71; closing finish!  all GP runs mind you…

Well, were you people really paying attention to yesterdays races besides just noting the winner of the Gotham ?????????

  YESTERDAY!!! ….

Fillie “Khancord Kid”, a ½ length winner over “Apple Charlotte” in the Herecomesthebride

            1 1/8  Gr. III (T):  ran a stellar

¼  :23.96; ½  :48.58; ¾  1:12.17; 1 Mi.  1:35.32; 1 1/8:  1:47.14;  …now does that compare with the above???

       …that is, essentially closing off slow opening fractions !!!! … in her WHOOPING :21.82; finish! thusly, closing more that a second faster than Big Brown!  

     However, if you were are looking for a new and interesting  DERBY CONTENDER besides

“Asphie’s Bet”,--Tr. A. Barba,--and his 1:48.72; 1  1/8 run in the Gr. III Sham!!! …not too shabby aye…

¼  :23.62; ½  :47.61; ¾  1:12.22; 1 Mi.  1:36.52; 1  1/8:  1:48.72; in comparison and his ½ second better than Quality Road-or a Big Brown type closing finish his :22.20; being a closing finish is by the way that is extremely impressive!!! …however…

…try “Paddy O’Prado”’s lil run in comparison to all the above!, whom up to this point hadn’t broken his MAIDEN !!! However, look at and compare his run & his time in his win in the Palm Beach

            1  1/8   Gr. III (T):

((over Dean’s Kitten-Our Champion-Asphalt-Bim Bam-& Lethal Combination)): where in finishing 2nd and 3rd & etc., not far from the lead, one must have felt accomplished!!, as they were chasing a winner in…

¼  :23.11; ½  :46.56; ¾  1:10.10; 1 Mi. 1:33.51; 1 1/8:  1:45.40; !!!!      I repeat  1:33.51; (and that faster than the impressive 1:35.30; run that “Make Music For Me” pulled off after his 3 month layoff in the Pasadena Stakes!!) and that of his finish  

in 1:45.40:  in a 1  1/8 race!!! ... with his comparable to the above :21.89; closing finish!!!

   Thusly, this his is the stuff 4-5 yr. old Breeder’s Cup champions run around and great proven 3 yr. olds… not a 3 yr. old who hadn’t broken his maiden.!! I repeat, WHO hadn’t BROKEN HIS MAIDEN!! (… and tough to play such a horse to win before that race, aye, but...)

  And so, if you were still are looking for a new DERBY CONTENDER, one that is faster than “Eskendereya”!!!  and also much better suited for distance… (and I am sure there will be more) …try  

“Paddy O’Prado” … an -'08 $105K $$ Keenlander! …and also an early Kentucky Derby entry mind you!!

   Tr. D. Romans:

         El Prado (Ire.)-(Sadler’s Well)-(Northern Dancer)-((thusly Raise a Native)-

              Lady Capulet-((d.s. Sir Ivor-(Sir Gaylord)-(Turn To) ))-

                      ((s.s.d.s. Bold Reason-(Hail to Reason)

         Fun House – Prized – (Kris S) - (Roberto) - (Hail to Reason)-

           (thusly dbl bred to Hail to Reason)

              Bistra-(Aus. & Fr. blood in the d.d. side) for stamina??…

   And, its only still just the end of 1st week in March, although we should know all we need to know for expressing our opinions by April 3rd or April 10th ??? Although, I can’t believe any real actual Derby hopeful will come out of the Ark. Derby or the Toyota Blue Grass and turn around and run 3 weeks later in the Kty. Derby and still have gas in the tank for a real shot at the Derby! ...but….

   Well, I was looking for some runners that I thought had merit from this past weekend, and in those two mentioned above plus “Mendip”, I think we have found three that should crack a few top 10 lists !!! and all were “FIELD ENTRIES” from future Pools 1 & 2 !!! Now who other than maybe “Lookin at Lucky”-“Eskenderya”-“Doubles Partner”-&/or “Caracortado”, etc. ,,,can really even run with or standup to these three mentioned newbies?--“Paddy O’Paddo”-“Alphies Bet”-& “Mendip”--in reality!!??! Well, I guess we shall see, and that’s why they run the races. Surely, anyone can win the Derby, as “Gacimo” and “Mine that Bird” did and have proven! But, like I said, up to this point, we have not seen all or this relatively stellar collection yet! And, yes, there were some impressive 1 1/16 winners, but many with Distance stamina issues and not really any with BLISTERING SPEED shown yet in the sub 1:41.50; range!, being nothing like those two 1 1/8 efforts yesterday! And, I am sure some more new faces will pop up out of the woodwork yet in Fla. Derby, the Wood Memorial, the Sunland Derby, the Lane’s End, and the Santa Anita, Derby, etc., that is, before all is said and ready done before the DANCE, that “greatest 2 minutes in sports” on May the 1st!!!

07 Mar 2010 5:49 PM
Gary

I agree with a lot of you guys and gals, I think Caracortado is the best in the west and until he  gets beat, how can you go against him?, Looks like Lucky is duckin him, and I truly hope that Dublin is the best in the east, could be Wayne's last whoraah, and he deserves it , he showed most of these folks the ropes, Sheikes don't think they have anything,

08 Mar 2010 12:06 AM
Slew

I'm starting to have more hope for Jackson Bend with Borel on him in the Wood....but he certainly is tiny.

Ron the Greeks work fractions have not been great.  Giant Oak is running better times.

What's with Lookin At Lucky...is Baffert hedging about a dirt track debut?  Weather for Hot Springs..

"Mar 13  Saturday

Occasional showers possible. Highs in the upper 50s and lows in the upper 30s."  What snow?  Well...I know anything is possible..but it looks unlikely. If a snowflake does fall, it will most likely melt on a ground that's been really warming up into the 60's.

08 Mar 2010 10:30 AM
Ranagulzion

ZARVONA,

Why so unorthodox in your analyses for this year's Derby, comparing splits on grass to those on dirt etc. and arbitrarily abondoning your tried and tested "staay-away-from Storm Cat line breeding" rule ?  Could i remind you that the Mine That Bird and Giacomo phenomena are abberations that don't occurr every year or two years in succession? This year I believe that the trifecta will be easy pickings, like taking candy from a baby ...history does not support another major upset this year.  Coldfacts might want to weigh-in on this one.

08 Mar 2010 2:28 PM

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