March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

 1

Eskendereya Todd Pletcher

Giant's Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew

It’s OK if he regresses a little in the March 20 Florida Derby, but he still should run another big race. Pletcher has been working him easy, latest being 5f in 1:02 2/5. Stablemate Rule will be the one to beat if he runs. Pletcher would then have to train both up to the Derby off a six-week layoff.

 2

Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert

Smart Strike—Private Feeling, by Belong to Me

After a performance like his in the Rebel, at only 80% cranked, how can you not admire his determination and professionalism and his ability to overcome adversity? This is an exceptional horse who just wants to win. And kudos to Garrett Gomez for an amazing recovery and keeping cool, letting the horse gather himself. We’ll wait until the Fla. Derby to see if he replaces Eskendereya on top spot.

 3

Interactif Todd Pletcher

Broken Vow—Broad Pennant, by Broad Brush

Been waiting to put him back on here; just needed the chance to prove he’s a Derby horse. There’s no reason why he won’t perform just as well on the dirt, having already won over it. He was a little aggressive early, but settled beautifully and closed into a blazing final three-sixteenths. Would love to see final prep on dirt, but Pletcher is loaded in all those races.

 4

Awesome Act Jeremy Noseda

Awesome Again—Houdinis Honey, by Mr. Prospector

Moving him way up despite the weak competition in the Gotham because he has so much upside and did so many things right. Yes, he’ll need to step up in the Wood Memorial, but if he survives the Euro bounce and runs big again, the sky’s the limit.

 5

Odysseus Tom Albertrani

Malibu Moon—Persimmon Hill, by Conquistador Cielo

Have no idea what to make of the Tampa Bay Derby. Closing fractions were slow and the entire field was separated by only 3 3/4 lengths, but for sheer grit and the ability to hit a hole with a vengeance, that was awfully impressive. Looked like a beaten horse, and it wasn’t until he changed leads that he hit another gear.

 6

Super Saver Todd Pletcher

Maria's Mon—Supercharger, by A.P. Indy

He should get a lot out of the Tampa Bay Derby. He got stuck on his left lead and still fought back gamely over a track he might not have cared for. But, again, he needs to get off the lead, and time is running out. Something’s got to give with him and Rule or WinStar could have two horses at each other’s throat.

 7

Rule Todd Pletcher

Roman Ruler—Rockcide, by Personal Flag

Decision on the Florida Derby was scheduled to be made March 15. Drilled a solid 5f in 1:01 1/5. Wherever he runs, this is the time to finally take him back; what else is new? No reason to think he won’t be as effective rating off the pace, but has to show it. He still has a lot of improvement left in him.

8

Dublin D. Wayne Lukas

Afleet Alex—Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird

He didn’t take the necessary move forward, but went five-wide into the first turn and made an ill-advised premature move when Nakatani tried to box in Lookin At Lucky, who clipped his heels. Inner splits of :23 1/5 and :24 were too fast. Switched to his left lead late, indicating he was getting tired. He deserves another shot, but needs s smarter ride than that.

9

Noble’s Promise Ken McPeek

Cuvee—The Devil’s Trick, by Clever Trick

You won’t find many horses as tough and honest as this guy, and he’d have a heck of a record if it wasn’t for Lookin at Lucky. But now it’s time for him to find the winner’s circle again; too many heartbreaking defeats and he needs to show he can open up on horses once he gets the lead.

10

Sidney’s Candy John Sadler

Candy Ride—Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat

He’s fast and he has the ability to run anyone chasing him into the ground. Four six-furlong works helped give him plenty of bottom stretching out to two turns. Came home very fast and was particularly strong galloping out, but he likely won’t get that soft a pace again.

11

Discreetly Mine Todd Pletcher

Mineshaft—Pretty Discreet, by Private Account

You never know how he’s going to work. Breezed a slow five furlongs in 1:04 1/5, his second easy work since the Risen Star. Obviously, he needs to crank it up for the March 27 Louisiana Derby, which is coming up fast.

12

Caracortado Mike Machowsky

Cat Dreams—Mons Venus, by Maria’s Mon

He ran OK, but didn’t have any excuses. He had every chance at the head of the stretch, but the winner came home too fast for him after setting dawdling pace. He has to improve off that if he’s going to move on. The two horses he beat in the Robert B. Lewis ran badly in the San Felipe.

12

Conveyance Bob Baffert

Indian Charlie—Emptythetill, by Holy Bull

Yes, getting desperate having a tie, but this is not a particularly strong Top 12 and it’s difficult leaving an undefeated horse who’s won on dirt and trained by Baffert off the list, even if he is taking the easy route in New Mexico and is one of way-too-many talented speed horses this year. He’d be a lot more dangerous in most other years. Still looking for that one explosive closer.

To participate, use your cursor to drag the selections on the left to the blank placeholders on the right. Once you have completed ranking all of the horses, submit your entries and compare your results to the rest of the community. A first place ranking will earn 12 points, second place receives 11 points, and so on.

184 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Gladiator

Sidney's Candy looks sweet. Should be in the top 3.

15 Mar 2010 3:20 PM
What's up with that?

Why does it take so long for Churchill Downs to update their top Graded Stakes earnings?  Looking forward to reading all the comments.  

15 Mar 2010 3:30 PM
redandblacksilks

Odysseus ran greenly but still put on a show at the end to win the Tampa Bay Derby.  Nothing but upside here and should improve off the race. Awesome Act's race was very impressive considering the problems and delays getting to New york. There is one other I'd put on this list and that is Radiohead.  Demonstrated ability in last race and expect him to continue to improve.

15 Mar 2010 3:46 PM
Steve Haskin

I couldnt agree more about Radiohead, but just couldnt find a spot for him. I think I'll find one after the Fla. Derby. In this week's column I am making a list of horses not on the Top 12 who may wind up being better than the ones on there and Radiohead is right up near the top of that list.

15 Mar 2010 3:55 PM
Slew

For many of these horses, I need to see another decent race.  I'd give the nod to Lookin At Lucky and Noble's Promise.  Although I give credit to the gutsy Odysseus, he's still unproven for me.  I'm anxiously awaiting a few more colts to step up, such as Backtalk (maybe even New Madrid????)  I think I'll be forever hoping that Ron the Greek and Dave in Dixie step back up.  Guess I have to wait.  Sydney's Candy seems to have enough muscle power to put the governor to shame, and he might be a big threat.  I too, have not as yet seen that ONE particular horse that screams "I'm it!"  I'm still looking.

15 Mar 2010 4:05 PM
hoofprintsandhorseplay

I loved the way Jenny Craig's horse Sidney's Candy stretched out around two turns for the first time.

He powered away from the field after turning for home and as Steve mentioned, galloped out very strong.  

Sidney's Candy remains #1 on my list for the fourth straight week.

I hope to see American Lion go to the dirt for his final prep. Haven't lost faith he will still run big Derby day.  

Still think Odysseus is most over rated colt on the trail.

15 Mar 2010 4:14 PM
mickey101

WELL....WELL....WELL,we found out a few things this past weekend, dave in dixie.....caracortado....dublin......utcb are all pretenders,all showed they cannot and will not get a classic distance......conveyance when and where , he runs next ,will be the same result, if baffert stops trying to hide him, last I heard ...he was at bealah park( LOL)....just remember at .....this point in his career mr.lukas could not train a duck to swim.......just wait and see , the story will be (corey) made his too early etc.excuses....excuses....excuses.....I wish RA would have won for the sake of racing would have givin a positive outlook for the upcoming spring...summer and fall.

15 Mar 2010 4:29 PM
trebloc

LAL and Sidney's Candy were very impressive winners over the weekend. I was a little disapointed in SS's race, but he was giving 6lbs to the field and and it was his first race in 90 plus days.  I would like to see him in the Illinois Derby, rather then take on the lives of Noble's Promise, Dublin and possibly LAL.  Plus he would get an extra week to train for derby.  I think Calvin Borel gets the mount back.

15 Mar 2010 4:33 PM
It Aint Easy being good

I hate plastic runners but sidneys candy just looks explosive and no one really closed on the candy man. I also like awesome act a sleeper horse that also showed so adversity in his win and should be ready to roll may 1st.

15 Mar 2010 5:05 PM
mickey101

Sidneys candy won't be out walking the ...dog....3/4 in 1:13.53,come derby day.....looked to me that Interactif was closing fast at the wire....givin what I seen over the last month ,there are 5 or 6 speed balls seems to set up for a CLOSER.

15 Mar 2010 5:06 PM
christy tate

liked lookin at lucky's win in the rebel because it showed he can try hard, and doesn't give up. that's what's important in a derby horse.

15 Mar 2010 5:12 PM
marktoothaker

Had a chance to be at OP for the Rebel and Honey Bee, Lucky certainly overcame a tough trip and just kept fightng all the way to te wire. Thought Noble did everything but win. Kenny McPeek is leaving Beautician and Noble at OP for Fantasy and Ark Derby. Bob is on fire at Op, he has won with every horse he has had in a stake did get beat with a maiden on undercard. A lady told McPeek it was like Affirmed and Alydar and he had a great line telling her he just wants to be Affirmed one time.

15 Mar 2010 5:17 PM
ETHAN

I think that Caracortado is agrea horse for his size and pedigree, it doesn't look like he should stay on he derby trail but maybe dropping back to 7 Furlongs or a Mile would get him some more wins, once he gets old he my be able to try mile+ agin having grown, great Mover

15 Mar 2010 5:21 PM
JV215

No interest in schoolyard dreams? I think he was moved premature in the Tampa Derby but the move itself was impressive. He is still learning but getting much more impressive with every race.

15 Mar 2010 5:27 PM
GoldenGiven

i was totalling wrong about Uptowncharlybrown. with that behind me i'm selecting Awesome Act as my top 3yr old with Lucky looming in second. AA won so easily last out i hope he doesnt fire too big in the wood. thanks goes out to Mr. Haskin

15 Mar 2010 5:28 PM
Kevin Stafford - The Aspiring Horseplayer

Lookin' good Steve-O.

On a personal note, I'm happy you included Noble's Promise, as I took some public booing from a close friend over on Facebook when I ranked that one 10th in my most recent list.  

1. Odysseus (my boy)

2. Lucky (helluva horse)

3. Eskendereya (could be a monster)

4. Awesome Act (my 2nd favorite)

5. Rule (is he as good as top 4?)

6. Discreetly Mine (I have ?'s)

7. Conveyance (gets no respect)

8. Sidney's Candy(distance/pace ?'s)

9.  Interactif (loved his run)

10. Noble's Promise (classy horse)

I like that you ranked Super Saver up there as well as I thougth he looked professional and has every reason to move forward next out.  Of course, I liked Schoolyard Dreams as well. I know the final fractions weren't jawbreaking, but it looked to me like those were the 3 horses still running at the end (rest of the field, not so much).

Also like that you haven't been harsh on Dublin or Caracortado.  They simply didn't get a good pace setup once Sidney's Candy got to get loose with soft fractions.  

By the way - I also agree with your Rachel article today.  

Well done, Mr. Haskin - that's two top notch postings in one day.  Much respect.  

15 Mar 2010 5:39 PM
It Aint Easy being good

Mickey I agree but there are no stone cold closers out there but ron the greek and ron the greek is a bit overrated.

15 Mar 2010 5:48 PM
dylan clarke

my top ten are 1. lookin at lucky 2. eskendreya 3. odysseus 4. awesome act 5. rule 6. interactif 7. noble's promise 8. dublin 9. super saver 10. setsuko

all these horse are great have what it takes to win the derby who is radiohead and sidney's candy there is tom much speed this year i don't think these guys can compete with the best dirt speed

15 Mar 2010 5:50 PM
Turf Fan

Better take a look at Tiz the One.

Just ran a 101 Beyer in his second start going one mile at Gulfstream.

15 Mar 2010 6:05 PM
KYFan

Mickey,

Deadly to underestimate Wayne. Corey DID make his move too early and I'm afraid his personal battles with jocks like Garrett affect his decision making at times. He's top jock at Oaklawn winning at a 23% clip and on the board 50+% of the time and it seemed like a good move.

A lot of us would have probably done the same and gone with the hot hand, the jock with Derby experience if that's the goal.

Wayne doesn't have to make excuses and he is second leading trainer at Oaklawn to the juggernaut of Steve Asmussen.

He's in the top 15 money winning trainers in the country and I believe he has less starts than almost anyone up there other than Bob and one or two others. You are listed where, because I assure you a lot of people would like to be in his shoes.

He's still highly respected by those who are actually trainers and has a lot of people who ask him for advice or what his experience is in certain situations.

A lot of us ask and he doesn't hesitate to offer advice or a helping hand.

The Indiancharlie sarcastic schtick is getting really old. I also believe it's very disrespectful for anyone who is a fan of racing to talk like that about a Hall of Fame trainer.

I've seen Dublin work, he is brilliant. I think he has some immaturity going on. Maybe Jamie was the best fit for the horse and the owners will realize that soon.

As far as Rachel Alexandra, she's last years news.

15 Mar 2010 6:08 PM
Auburnbill

Mickey 101 -- I am one who believes Nakatani moved too soon. I also believe Lucas has plan for May 1 - don't run 2 bullets before prep race without plan for further down the road (still not convinced the fast inner splits were not intentional). Lucas' poor run lately more attributable to lack of horses rather than loss of touch - discount him at your own peril.

15 Mar 2010 6:08 PM
Slew

I forgot, I did see one horse that did make me take notice, but I have to wait for the UAE Derby to see what happens.  I really liked Mendip.  Hope he comes.

15 Mar 2010 6:22 PM
you got to have it

Here are my selections for now.

1. Odysseus

2. Gleam of Hope

3. Paddy O Prado

4. Awesome Act

5. Lookin at Lucky

6. Rule

7. Eskendeyera

8. Schoolyard Dreams

9. Sidney's Candy

10. Nobles Promise

11. Conveyance

12. Discreetly Mine

15 Mar 2010 6:49 PM
Mike985

Eskendereya and Lookin at Lucky have proven themselves early on, but I still think Dublin will be the one to beat.

15 Mar 2010 7:09 PM
GunBow

Steve:

I really like your rankings.  I would put Lookin at Lucky #1.  He is, afterall, the 2 year old champ, a 3 time gr.1 winner, and trained by Baffert.  Additionally, he proved he might be an even better mover on dirt and that he can overcome adversity, and ran his "fastest" career race first start back off 3 months.  

Eskendereya's Fountain of Youth was strong, but I really question now what he beat and think the track bias at Gulfstream flatters his style.  It's possible he may have more potential than Lookin at Lucky, but with Lucky you know you're getting a legit gr.1 horse that can run on any surface, anywhere.

I agree with your reservations concerning Odysseus and the TB Derby.  The entire field, including a 112-1 shot, was separated by less than 4 lengths, and they really staggered home.  Odysseus displayed heart and has some upside, but I doubt he re-rallies and wins if another legit prospect was in that race.

15 Mar 2010 7:24 PM
Ron the Roman

Slew- Ron the Greek will run in the LA Derby and WILL step up. He still closed in the Risen Star, but the slow pace was no help. I still think he could be a major contender for the first sat in may.

15 Mar 2010 7:31 PM
LH1216

They can't all run on the lead. It would set up well for a closer if there weren't some REALLY good stalkers.

Sidney's Candy proved he can settle and run longer like he pedigree suggests. Looking at Lucky proved he can rally - still. Noble's Promise, Eskendereya, Odysseus, Caracortado, Interactif, Awesome Act...

The only closer with the speed to catch that group in a 20 horse field is Ron the Greek. The question is - will he still have that speed in a mile and a quarter race?

15 Mar 2010 7:46 PM
Mike P

No faulting the "Lucky" horse. don't know if he can get the distance. Caracortado did nothing wrong. He chased tepid fractions in a very weird race. Give him another chance. I think this horse wins it all in the end.....

15 Mar 2010 8:01 PM
TheeMilton

No changes from last week:

1. Sidney's Candy- (Steve, what more can you ask on a first time stretch out?  No one challenged on the backstretch- Talamo did exactly what he needed to win... but maybe not what was needed to impress Steve.  The connections will forgive Talamo.

2. Caracortado

3. Dublin

15 Mar 2010 8:09 PM
Ormonde

Along with Radiohead, Soaring Empire looks like another one to keep an eye on. He recently had a very good 5f work and has the pedigree to run all day. His trainer also conditioned Spend A Buck. Looks like the Florida Derby is next on his schedule, which is shaping up to be quite a race, especially if Soaring Empire, Radiohead and the two Pletcher-trained horses all run.

15 Mar 2010 8:39 PM
Northwind

For me, there would have been five dropped out of your top 12. Waiting to see what Radiohead has, and want to see something from Backtalk, D'Funnybone and a couple others.  For now, your top 7 are the same horses as I have, a couple of placings different.

15 Mar 2010 8:40 PM
Glassoniongirl

Lentenor is still my favorite 3 year old, can`t wait for his next race, he`s definately good enough for the KY Derby, he just needs the earnings and some experience.

Out of these limited few, I`d pick Lookin At Lucky as my favorite, but I`d like Caracortado to win, it`d be awsome for a horse with a cool haircut to win for a change, and it`d be the first time geldings won twice in a row.

Haskin`s only looking at the horses up front, the ones running big races. He`s not looking at all of them and basing his decisions (that apperently everyone follows) on everything that plays in.

He`s saying Rachel`s not the same and seems to be making her look bad, but she was rushed and is coming off a 6 month layoff. I`d like to see him try to run a good race after being rushed into a stakes race after a 6 month layoff, but Rachel did it, most horses would been 4th or worse.

15 Mar 2010 9:27 PM
Horseplay

I addition to those top 13, D'Funnybone, Winslow Homer, Don't Blame the Cat, Paddy O'Prado are on the radar screen. My top three: I like the raw talent of Sidney, I like Lucky, I want to see if Eskend is as dominate next race.

15 Mar 2010 9:42 PM
John T

I thought Lookin At Lucky was impressive in his first start on dirt and he can only improve of that race.Glad to hear connections

are thinking about the Wood Memorial were he would meet another

horse who looked impressive in his

first start on dirt also,Awesome Act.

15 Mar 2010 9:50 PM
Paula Higgins

1. Lookin At Lucky

2. Eskendereya

3. Odysseus

15 Mar 2010 9:55 PM
Fire Slam

Soaring Emppire!! Empire Maker out of an AP Indy mare!!! Has the best bloodlines of any, and will run all day.

I probably just jixed him though. Ran green in the Iroquois at CD last Fall, and was awesome in his return race at Gulfstream.

He has a nice size to him, very solid, and really athletic.

Soaring Empire and Eskendereya on top, with all for third and fourth on the Superfecta.

Let It Ride!!

15 Mar 2010 9:59 PM
mickey101

dublin's Immaturity problems,are he is a miler....the same as jackson bend,the only differance is,that jackson bends handlers relize this,as others do ,and don't continue....just to run in the derby.

15 Mar 2010 10:03 PM
Karen in Indiana

Steve, do you think this year's group is higher talent than the last two? There were a couple of standouts in last year's crop, and the year before that pretty much belonged to Big Brown. But this year's crop seems to have a lot of very good horses that are popping up all over the place.

I was very impressed with the grit and determination of Looking at Lucky and Odysseus. I hadn't jumped on LAL's bandwagon, mainly because he was being pegged as the favorite so early. But he earned respect last Saturday and the lessons he learned will make him a more determined competitor.

And Sidney's Candy was impressive also. I always root for the Candy Rides. Probably because I love chocolate (Chocolate Candy) and am on a diet.

15 Mar 2010 10:13 PM
Jean Allen

Too bad Sid's Candy maybe heading towards to the SA DERBY, which shall leave him vulnerable with Zero Dirt experience.

Baffert & L@Lucky is the right tactical strategy.

15 Mar 2010 10:25 PM
dedes dozen

Can anybody tell me the status of Bridgetown?

15 Mar 2010 10:30 PM
Vic S

1. Conveyance - MINE MINE MINE MINE, o yes wait HES MINE im not changing my mind Conveyance is my Derby horse!

15 Mar 2010 10:41 PM
It aint easy being good

Steve is right there needs to be an explosive closer in the group but if you look at awesome act he seems like the one that is so smooth and will find daylight in the final turn. Sidney's Candy though is lights out and I hate plastic runners! I guess this weekend should say alot. Who is running in the florida derby??

15 Mar 2010 11:00 PM
animallover

Steve, how do you feel about Backtalk's chances at making the Derby?

All the best!

15 Mar 2010 11:13 PM
Bloodline Bob

Thank you Steve, for putting my KY.DERBY FAVORITE(INTERACTIF) back on your list.As you can see INTERACTIF has been my #1 pick since 1-25-10. Watch his broodmare sire's(BROAD BRUSH) progeny climb the broodmare list(RICHARD'S KID) the Dubai World Cup(3-27-10). If that is confusing--INTERACTIF + RICHARDS KID have the same broodmare which is BROAD BRUSH.

16 Mar 2010 12:23 AM
VDISC

You echoed my thoughts completely with Interactif in the top 3! he is my Derby Horse because he can run all day! If he makes the lead at any point the race is over! That's what it takes to win the Derby!I think this horse has the potential to be a freak, his breeding is adequate but he is special!

16 Mar 2010 12:55 AM
Coldfacts

Steve,

I have to agree with you it is not a particular strong top 12. I have a few comments on three on your list:

Dublin: I have stated that of all the contenders he is the one I am certain will not win the 2010 KD. Exceptional horse do not need perfect ride to win. I do not believe a race has to be timed to perfection for a horse to win. The great ones find a way to win in spite of what is perceived to be errors in judgment.  It does not matter how good Dublin's supporters think he is or how great his trainer is or was, he does not fit the derby winner’s profile. His sire Afleet Alex belongs to a category of sires that do not sire derby winners. Twenty seven horses preceded Alex as winners of two legs of the Triple Crown and none have sired a KD winner. Swale met an untimely demise, funny Cide is gelding and War Emblem has fertility problems. So the list can be narrowed to 24. The likes of Northern Dancer, Spectacular Bid, Pleasant Colony, Majestic Prince etc., could not get it done. Why should anyone believe Afleet Alex will break the jinks? No broodmare with the level of graded earning associated with Dublin’s dam has ever produced a KD winner. High performing broodmares do not produce derby winners. It does not mean that they do not produced excellent horses. Last but and certainly least the name Dublin has been used on 19 previous occasions. Someone is trying very hard to associate this name with a champion and it appears they will have to wait the allotted time and try again.

Odysseus: The hot colt who reminds me a lot of the over hyped Dunkirk. What has he done to merit being ranked #5? Let’s check the cold facts: He defeated School Yard Dreams who passed him approaching the bend as if he was glued to the ground. A more patient ride on SYD would have seen him home. Super Saver might not have been tight enough for this race yet he quickened away from Odysseus the fitter horse. The one measure that tells that this colt does not belong at #5 is the 4th place finisher in the TBD Gleam Of Hope. Super Saver destroyer him by 16 lengths at Churchill Downs in late 2009. He hopped out of the starting gates somewhat like I Want Revenge in the 2009 Wood. His awkward start caused him to be left 8-10 lengths last. He was used vigorously to close this huge gap and although going 4 wide on the turn was able to passed Super Saver who whipped him by 16 lengths in the last meeting and the much heralded Odysseus before flattening out. Can any who truly understands thoroughbred racing deny the fact that if Gleam Of Hope got into stride with the others that he would not have won. If Odysseus is such a wonder, how can his fans explain a 42-1 horse who spots him 8 -10 lengths and under a sustained ride from last passes him in the stretch only to lose because the effort took it tool. Guys there is hype and there is cold facts, it is important that the distinction be made between the two.

An Odysseus derby victory would represent a breakthrough for a son of A.P. Indy. None of his almost 50 sons at stud have ever sired the winner of a Triple Crown race. His dam sire is Belmont winner Conquistador Cielo, a son Mr. Prospector. Mine That Bird’s dam sire is Smart Strike who is also a son of Mr. Prospector. Now what are the chances of Mr. P’s sons being back to back derby dam sires? Remote a best!

Lookin AT Lucky: He continues to defeat the stamina deficient Nobles Promise. If this fact is used as a measure, it can be safely concluded that he will not inch by genuine rout horses. I do not like those sorts of tough races coming off a long layoff. I hope it does not affect him going forwards. LAL always appears workman like in his victories. He does not have a smooth flowing move to get to leaders and this running style going 10F will leave the best of them tired before the end. He cannot be faulted on consistency but if he has to be ridden as hard in the derby to get to leaders as he has been in most of his past races the will be a spent force in the last furlong. The first 6F of the BCJ was run at a snail’s pace and he had to be ridden for all he was worth to get to leaders. I content the real smart one would close the gap on their bridle in those splits.

16 Mar 2010 1:09 AM
Mike Z

These horses winning preps on synthetic race tracks mean absolutely nothing to me.

Unless a horse can show me a win on the dirt I am not ranking him in my top contenders.

I am very glad that Bafford shipped Lucky east. I guess he really learned something after letting Pioneer of the nile make his first dirt start at the derby last year.

16 Mar 2010 2:26 AM
Criminal Type

Awesome Act & Odysseus have impressed me more then any of the others. I have no faith in the California horses until I see them perform on dirt. Lookin at Lucky showed he has what most of the west coast crowd does not, versatility, determination and athleticizm. Im not much impressed by Sidneys Candy, Interactif, American Lion or Super Saver. Not sure why, just do not feel they are Derby horses.

I too like Ron the Greek, and while i was dissapointed in his Risen Star, I think given more distance and a ligitimate pace, I believe he would have won. Will see how he does in the Louisiana Derby.

16 Mar 2010 4:49 AM
Tim

You can throw out the Gulfstream winners because that track has a bias that makes average horses look like superstars. Conveyance is the horse I would watch out for in the Derby because the Derby never unfolds the way it should. There are alot of front runners this year but don't be suprised to see Conveyance wire the field while the other jocks take back and chase him until they run out of gas and cause alot of traffick for the closers.

16 Mar 2010 4:53 AM
hoofprintsandhorseplay

Stay Put is 'the other' deep closer to keep an eye on. He actually made up more ground in slow paced race won by Discreetly Mine that Ron the Greek.

Who is pointing to the Sunland Park Derby?

16 Mar 2010 6:16 AM
Katherine

It is making me crazy watching the rides Dublin has received in his last two races. I sure hope they get this straitened out soon.

16 Mar 2010 6:34 AM
El Kabong

NP and Lucky ran very professional races, especially lucky. NP's style may put him in a better position to win Derby. Even with a Gomez on board, a field of 20 is far more difficult to maneuver, especially since we have all noted the abundance of speed that may be causing traffic in the turn for home. Both horses are ready for whatever comes next.

TB Derby. Odysseus is a pure athlete of a horse who succeeded running green. If he runs smarter next out we could see a real stretch show. SS certainly missed the services of Calvin, who knows how to switch this horse onto the right lead(see kjc film). No disrespect to Ramon, but he did not get SS to switch up and keep momentum. This horse is for real and that race was just a tune up anyway. I guarantee this horse will cause trouble where ever he goes next and I hope it's the Arkansas Derby. The surface is more compatible with CD and he'll like it.

Sidney's Candy ran smart and impressive. Compare it to LAL's win in CashCall and tell me what you think. Sidney won't get pushed much harder in splits for SA Derby unless Noble or LAL show up, and I hope one of them does, it will bode well for Alphie's Bet. Anyone looking for a closer should keep there eye on this horse next out. Fantastic finish(final 2f's under 24) in Sham. I would love to see this horse run next on Dirt but looks great in SA Derby.

This is heating up. Can't wait to see what Esky has in the tank and what Rule will do in his company(if that occurs).

16 Mar 2010 6:44 AM
jamesb

Seems like we go through this every year.

When was the last Interactif or Dublin actually won a race?

Last year it was Imperial Council and Theregoesjojo.  A couple of years ago it was Steppenwolfer.

Dublin doesn't need more distance, he needs softer company, and Interactif gets nailed on the line by Bim Bam and then can't catch Sidney's Candy but he is ranked #3 and #7 respectively?

16 Mar 2010 6:46 AM
Slew

Ron the Roman, thanks for the encouragement, but I have been keeping tabs on Ron's works at the Fairgrounds.  He keeps running pretty slow fractions.  Even Giant Oak is having better timed works.

Backtalk is also working at the Fair Grounds and his works have been sensational.  As I've said before, I'm looking for the horse that can get 12 furlongs, and they're few and far between.  I'm also watching diligently for new contenders, because I know, somewhere out there, is a horse that can really impress me.  I just haven't quite seen him yet.

16 Mar 2010 6:51 AM
Fran Loszynski

Reading that Horse Racing fans that know alot more than I do feel the ride Dublin got was not the best; what really should be done to help this great racehorse get to the finish line. He has had so many turnovers of jockeys-I'm ready to ride him! I feel Jeremy Rose should ride him-he knows Afleet Alex and why wouldn't he know his kids! I feel bad for Dublin because this horse is trying soo hard-I still believe in you Dublin and feel you can win the Kentucky Derby. May the wind of Ireland guide you Home.

16 Mar 2010 8:28 AM
Stan Levine

WHAT ABOUT (SCHOOLYARD DREAMS)-IF SUPER SAVER IS ON THAN - COME ON REALLY

16 Mar 2010 8:29 AM
txhorsefan

Even though I've been reading all the Derby Dozens all along this year, I still was not expecting to see Sidney's Candy run like he did in the San Felipe, so I think I'm even more confused about all of them now.  Lookin At Lucky looked fantastic, was a little disappointed in Dublin and Caracortado and Super Saver.  Your list looks good, Steve, so I'm simply going to sit back and enjoy the racing and be relieved I'm not spending any money on it at this point since I'd most likely be wrong.  I thank you for always pointing out each runner's strong and weak points as it helps me to learn.  I agree with Kevin Stafford's comment regarding your article about Rachel Alexandra - it was great.  Thank you!

16 Mar 2010 8:29 AM
ACC

Did anyone see how uptowncharlybrown had nowhere to go the entire stretch of the tampa bay derby?  He probably wins the race with any room at all.  don't sell charly short.

16 Mar 2010 8:56 AM
Ranagulzion

STEVE,

Is the Dutrow gang totally off your radar? They are a dangerous group.

16 Mar 2010 9:22 AM
Joey Woge

Boy's, AWESOME ACT will run by them all late. Lot's of early speed in this year's race and it doesn't look like anyone wants to rate. A nice 2nd place finish in the Wood will set him up perfectly for the Derby.

16 Mar 2010 9:38 AM
LUIS

and .... Radiohead does not run ....

16 Mar 2010 9:40 AM
Fran Loszynski

To Coldfacts: In a horse race anything can happen. Remember Birdstone in the Belmont SURPRISE!!! Afleet Alex in the Preakness  SURPRISE!!!!

A little horse named Smartey Jones SURPRISE!! Having faith in the heart of a racehorse winning is when all the realists tell you not to believe.

DUBLIN -you're going to look handsome in a blanket of Roses!

16 Mar 2010 10:03 AM
DK Stables

At this point agree with most of list.  When I saw Interactif's DP (12-13-15-2-2) back in Jan. I was hoping he had the talent to go along with it. As the races get longer I think he will get better.  Definitely a Derby or Belmont horse and if the dirt fails BC Turf material.

Steve, your top 5 are on it and anyone of them could win it now.

16 Mar 2010 10:12 AM
Teaser

Your going to have to fine room for Solar Empire after he beats Eskendereya this weekend. Dublin?

16 Mar 2010 10:22 AM
datflippinrabbit

Dedes Dozen on Bridgetown he's not on the triple crown trail,they are giving him some time off and aiming for Saratoga nothing wrong with him.And got that from the horses mouth the owner.

16 Mar 2010 10:25 AM
Johar

In my opinion there is NO WAY that Radiohead will get the Derby trip. He is this year's Keyed Entry - a top class sprinter/miler who will get ruined by being forced to run in the Derby.

I expect Awesome Act to bounce next time out. It's tough for international shippers to string back-to-back performances like that together.

I am still keeping Dave In Dixie in the mix. If he remains on schedule and works satisfactorily I think he can bounce back. He just threw in a clunker. That wasn't him.

Lookin at Lucky has to be #1 now. He's simply the best horse around. His career Beyer numbers only prove the fallacy of that system. Noble's Promise has to be way up there too. Win or lose, he's close to Lookin At Lucky.

Super Saver doesn't do it for me, and the Tampa Bay Derby looks like the weakest race so far. However, Odysseus and Schoolyard Dreams are still pretty unexposed.

16 Mar 2010 11:38 AM
Forbidden Apple

1- Conveyance 2- Awesome Act

3- Lookin At Lucky 4- Connemara

5- Eskendereya 6- Mendip

7- Sidneys Candy 8- Nobles Promise

9- Odysseus 10- Caracortado

11- Super Saver 12- Ron The Greek

13- Schholyard Dreams

My closers are Awesome Act and Connemara. Both horses are being overlooked, along with Conveyance. The list of serious horses is shrinking, I was hard pressed to come up with a bakers dozen this week. My top 6 are solid runners.

Like Rachel, Dublin looks awful and still gets plenty of respect.

Can somebody please describe the dirt surface at Sunland Park? Does it play to speed or closers? Any information would be helpful at this point.

16 Mar 2010 11:40 AM
Billy's Empire

Found out a few things about Dublin.

1. He has been training pretty bad. Twice he has thrown his rider in the morning in the last two weeks. The first time, he was being gate schooled, left the gate, turned around, and went in a few circles, throwing the rider, than running lose for about a mile and running into the outside rail. Next day, Wayne was determined to get him right, so he put Terry T on him, and he threw Terry to the ground as well.

If you notice, he is blowing the first turn and taking himself wide. He did it in his last two races. He is doing this in the morning as well.

If that is not immature, than I dont know what is. Dublin would be great if he would calm down and not take himself out of the race. In Nakatani's case, I do not think it was a bad ride, as much as it was a horse that needs to grow up a little more. I still think he will be a great horse, just needs some time.

Have a good week!

Bill

16 Mar 2010 11:41 AM
Fire Slam

Joey Woge--

Looking at Lucky dont want to rate??? What about Eskendereya?? He laid 2nd and then exploded going into the turn his last race. Dublin comes running at the end.

If Soaring Empire runs big in the Florida Derby, he is another closer.

16 Mar 2010 11:56 AM
Zookeeper

Unlike prior years, I don't have a KD horse yet. The more I learn, the more I realize that I know very little. I used to be totally focused on California horses. Yes, I admit, I have a West Coast bias. I paid little attention to East Coast horses and happily cheered the home team. This year, I'm paying attention to all horses and cannot, for the life of me, make up my mind as to whom I like best. I'm beginning to think that "ignorance IS bliss". LOL! One thing for sure is that when the KD finally gets here, I'll be better informed, more able to appreciate all the competitors and enjoy the event even more than before. Hopefully, the next few preps will clear up the picture for me but, I'll tell you one thing: after last year's shocker, I will not call any horse a "throw out". I've learned THAT much!

16 Mar 2010 11:58 AM
Fire Slam

Katherine--

Terry Thompson rode Dublin good. It wasnt his fault the horse stumbled leaving the gate.

Now C. Nakatani and his riding is another story--agree with you on his riding.

Serves Lukas right for taking Terry off.

16 Mar 2010 11:59 AM
It Aint Easy being good

All of you are looking for a horse and seem to foget that a horse named conveynace has ran faster than anyone and has never lost. You think he has distance limitations but is lighting!

16 Mar 2010 12:05 PM
trebloc

What's up with Homeboykris training up to the Derby?  Coming off a 2nd place finish to Radiohead? It Does not seem right that he is going to the starting gate at Churchill.

16 Mar 2010 12:16 PM
Fire Slam

Cold Facts--

Disagree about your analysis of Dublin.

Not sure Dublin wakes up every morning and says to himself "I cant win the KY Derby, my mother won was a multiple stakes winner."

On an ironic note, you talked about Swale in your post. Well, his dam Tuerta, was a multiple graded stakes winner from the 70's. Purses were not as big then. None the less, she was a multiple stakes winner, and produced a KY Derby winner.

These horses dont know their pedigree! Its a total gamble. Big Brown--Boundry, of all sires, Boundry???????? Go figure.

16 Mar 2010 12:17 PM
Fire Slam

Cold Facts--

Buzz My Bell, dam of Grindstone, earned over $200,000 on the track, and was a grade one winner.

She produced Grindstone. How the heck did that happen??

16 Mar 2010 12:19 PM
Rachel

Sydney's Candy will run all day...I mean his dad did a mile in 1:32 and a mile and a quarter in 1:59, his granddad sired Invasor, his dam's side includes Secretariat, Northern Dancer, Explodent, his granddam was super versatile and raced until 6...I think he's the best Candy Ride so far.

16 Mar 2010 12:27 PM
El Kabong

Timmay!!

-Throw out GP horses? Easy now, whoa big fella. There is far too much talent down there and no fast track bias is going to give one horse in any race 8 lengths on the competition. Esky is money, I just hope he's not spent.  A dull performance in FD would spell trouble, but I don't think that will be the case. Love to see Rule, Tempted to Tapit and Soaring Empire make this race. I'll be glued  to FD race, not times. Those you can throw out.

16 Mar 2010 12:48 PM
Rachel

Sydney's Candy really reminds me of Thunder Gulch...

16 Mar 2010 12:54 PM
Ann in Lexington

Fran, Afleet Alex was not a surprise in the Preakness. He had been one of the top 2yos of the group, having won the Hopeful and running second in the BC Juvie to a Euro-shipper. He had won the Arkansas Derby and run a close-up 3rd in the Kentucky Derby, after chasing a very fast early pace. He might even been starting favorite in the Preakness, I don't have a reference for that; certainly not a surprise to anyone paying attention.

16 Mar 2010 1:38 PM
TerriV

I entered my Derby Dozen at the top of this article and put Lookin at Lucky and Eskendereya one and two.  They look the part right now but my heart keeps going round and round Conveyance, Odysseus, Dublin and Backtalk.  Backtalk will be on your list too, Steve, after his next race.  He is training beautifully.  Another couple weeks and there will be a different list.  Every race on the trail shakes things up.  So much fun!!!

16 Mar 2010 1:42 PM
El Kabong

Billy E,

Great stuff on Dublin. Now those are cold hard facts. Appreciate the real scoop. Maybe he'll settle down after St. Patrick's Day if someone gets that horse a Guinness.

16 Mar 2010 2:27 PM
It Aint Easy being good

I agree the horses dont know there odds and who there dads and moms are. You have to go on speed, skill and experience a good foundation is a bonus! If it rains or if your horse is in the 17th-20 hole forget about it! I keep hearing that dublin is breaking slowly out of the gate....cant do that in the derby need to come out of the gate like a rocket.....LIKE CONVEYANCE!!!

16 Mar 2010 2:27 PM
sea of stars

i believe if gomez,lays looking at lucky 5 to 7 lengths behind the leader in the first half mile and then start moving gradually on the leaders till the last quarter mile,no one will beat him in the derby.

16 Mar 2010 4:10 PM
trebloc

The Wood is shaping up to be one great race!  

16 Mar 2010 4:16 PM
Cris

My number one selection has always been Lookin At Lucky and there is no reason to change. If he stays sound he is the horse to beat.

Corey Nakatani was probably picked to ride Dublin because he is a very strong rider and can handle a very strong, green, horse without fighting him the whole race and wearing him out. I see no reason to change riders, the horse needs Corey and he needs time to get used to the horse.

Odysseus may have passed tired horses, but he got alot more than a win out of that race. He learned a bunch, and for the fellow that follows bloodlines the dam sire was a great horse that won the Belmont and the Metropolitan Mile in the same week. He also loved the mud and in this crazy weather year that too could be a factor.

Schoolyard Dreams looks like a very promising horse. It will be fun to watch him progress.

If anyone needs a Guinness its me following all these horses!

16 Mar 2010 4:16 PM
Ranagulzion

All those who were running scared to the Wood Memorial to escape "Esky" will find that they have run into a buzz saw when the Wood is done. Then maybe we'll get a decent field of respectable challengers instead of the clutter of pretenders lining up in the starting gates come May 1, 2010...yippee! Great decision by Zayat and Pletcher.  Also, Rule will strut his stuff and give a few others their reality check call in the Florida Derby. Oh boy this is now looking good ...no auxillary gate in the Kentucky Derby this year.

What say you, Steve?

16 Mar 2010 5:14 PM
Admiral Lobell

Well, you finally got one thing right but I had to read all the way down to your number 12A-  You said "desparate" and "this is not a particularly strong 12." HEre's a hint, bettors.  Key on all the bombs on Derby Day!

16 Mar 2010 6:02 PM
It Aint Easy being good

Haha great point I hate the auxillary gate its awful with todays technology I am suprised they dont have a 20 gate system formed. Thoughts about the wood do you think some trainers with derby horses wont want there horse to give it its all in the wood? I agree that Rule wil destroy on saturday. With no eskendrya in why not throw lentenor in that race to see how he does on dirt. Thoughts?? BTW has Rule ever lost a race??

16 Mar 2010 6:13 PM
Householder

Baffert vs. Pletcher...hmmmm....

16 Mar 2010 6:30 PM
Dave

I have to agree with redandblack.Radio Head is going to be tough to beat.

16 Mar 2010 6:40 PM
rilharreguy

Steve, it would be hard to argue with your top two selections based on the preps thus far. But the rest of your list is really just a farce. You sum it up best when you say "this is not a particularly strong Top 12". Honestly, do you really rank Dublin ahead of the undefeated Conveyance. I know you dont like Conveyance's speed style against this year's crop, but I would have to say that an undefeated horse whom beat Dublin, has to be rated higher than a horse who hasn't won since last August and was recently defeated by said Undefeated horse. Noble's Promise ranked one spot below Dublin (while having finished one spot ahead of him in a real race on Saturday) certainly did not get a pass from you for his losing antics since last October. So why give a pass to Dublin for losing yet again. Really at this point Dublin shouldnt even be on the list. Sorry D. Wayne but this is not the year you return to glory. Steve, please give a little more analysis on why this horse who keeps finishing further back in prep races has the eight best chance to win the derby according to you.

16 Mar 2010 6:55 PM
Johnny

To: It aint easy being good.

Did mind that bird come out of the gate like a rocket?

16 Mar 2010 8:05 PM
Criminal Type

IT aint wasy,

from your fingertips to MM's ears. I would love to see Lentenor in the Florida Derby. He has just as much chance as the rest of the horses going to the gate that day. He has had 4 weeks since his last race and should be chomping at the bit to run. I think he can win.

16 Mar 2010 8:21 PM
mickey101

heres a problem with this years derby picture(nobody likes the horse's that I do(except maybe eskendreya,if he runs in the wood as he did in the foy (lookout)could be a monster.   ....as far as front runners,wiring the field (not).....closers- Ron the greek and stayput,I don't think so,I will explain next week.....remember smarty jones in the belmont,they just sent one horse after another at him ,until he was spent,givin that ,if he would have faced birdstone,10 times,one on one after that race, smarty would have beat him everytime.....you know who holds all the cards this year (WINSTAR) they own (RULE) front runner,(SUPER SAVER)medium closer and(DROSSELMEYER)6 to 10 length closer........they could set up the race....also notice their horses ,do not run against each other,it's like chess moves for them......rule figures best in the florida derby, so eskendreya moves to the wood,drosselmeyer either lou. derby or Ill. derby, before that rule at tampa bay ,eskendreya at foy (GP) and drosselmeyer in risen star.......if they decide to use (RULE)as a rabbit,such was the case back in 1978 with a horse named (RAYMOND EARL)front runners could be toast......thats if all the stars align.

16 Mar 2010 8:34 PM
chris

I keep reading about all these horses pointing to the Wood, is anybody going to the Illinois Derby?

16 Mar 2010 8:41 PM
Dennis

There is a horse in Dubai that may show up, Mendip, could be the horse to beat.

16 Mar 2010 8:42 PM
Fire Slam

Chris--

Both of the horses for Lukas got C. Nakatani that day. Both lost. He certainly showed his strength with letting Decelerator set .22 and change fractions in a 1-1/16 race, when she clearly has the ability to rate. Way to go C.N. Way to use your strength and control her.

When Terry rode them last time there was a win, and close second.

Wish horses could talk. They would beg "Please put Terry Thompson back up!!"

16 Mar 2010 9:48 PM
ED

Hi. Been following your races for a while now. Find it interesting how all of you pick the same horses in your list each year. My take is it doesn't work so as these horses have run their races in the preps. Someone fresh and lethal at the time wins the classics. BB,MTB,SB DT etc. My take is for a Drosselmyer,Backtalk etc. Also beware of Pletcher/Gomez record.

16 Mar 2010 10:23 PM
Jodie

Wow, an owner who actually wants his colt to face the toughest competition and run in the hardest race there is.  What a concept.  Too bad there not more owners like you, instead of those  who pick  races so their horse can get an easy win.

Bravo Mr. Zayat, way to go!

My top three are Lookin at Lucky, Eskendereya,  and Awsome Act.  

16 Mar 2010 10:38 PM
sherpa

Chris - I read that Schoolyard Dreams is going to Illinois.  That seems to be a very good spot for him, eh?

16 Mar 2010 11:14 PM
Vale of York

Dennis

You are correct about a horse from Dubai showing up, you just have his name wrong!  ;o)

16 Mar 2010 11:28 PM
sherpa

What I like about Awesome Act is his Euro training.  Think about all these 3yos going 10f for the first time, not knowing at all (beyond guessing pedigree is enough) if they have the stamina to go that distance. AND, it seems like EVERY Euro race is a very large field, which must be off-putting for colts going from <8 or 10 to 20.  You KNOW that a Euro-trained horse has already experienced some distance/field size or they wouldn't run him. ALL the Euro races look like a "cavalry charge!" The only concern is the surface (dirt), and AA has shown he likes it fine.  He has the style to lay back, he likes the dirt, he's trained for stamina...what's not to like?

Not saying he's my Derby horse, just that I like him rather much for the pace/distance.  

16 Mar 2010 11:29 PM
Raven

Dear Steve, This is my Derby list may be you can comment about this list :

1. Sidney's Candy;

2. Eskendereya;

3. Rule;

4. Lookin at Lucky;

5. Super Saver;

6. Odysseus;

7. Mendip;

8. Dublin;

9. Awesome Act;

10.Conveyance;

11.Discreetly Mine;

12.Interactif;

13.Caracortado;

14.Drosselmeyer;

15.Schoolyard Dreams;

16.Noble,s Promise;

17.Vale of York;

18.Tempted to tapit;

19.Jackson Bend;

20.Ron The Greek;

21.Lentenor;

22.American Lion;

23.D'funnybone;

24.Pounced;

25.Radiohead;

26.Dave In Dixie;

27.Dry Fly;

28.Stay Put;

29.Aikenite;

30.Solar Empire.

Steve, I think Sidney's Candy already approve his capbilities as one of the best contender in Kentucky Derby as I said last week.

Drosselmeyer, Steve as a peronal, I like this horse very much. I think Drossselmeyer would work extra hard to approved his capabilities as a potential horse and one of the best contenders in Kentucky derby.

16 Mar 2010 11:37 PM
Tim G

If Dublin is training badly I'd like to see what the heck he'd do training brilliantly. Does he have some quirks? Yes. Does he do goofy things, sometimes. But a horse working 1/56 breezing five F in 59.60 is NOT training badly.

He's just a big horse who is having trouble going wide and sometimes is his own worst enemy. Corey tried to block GoGo in, got clipped for the effort. Get a Derby horse Billy and then you won't have to ask your 'neighbor' about another. By the way may I ask how your neighbor in Louisville relays this info while in Hot Springs?

Still trying to find the right jock. They've all had some kind of problem with the horse at some point. He's a big powerful guy, 16.3+ and 1300lbs.

Heck he can act like FuPeg and do triple back flips as long as the results are the same. Training badly insinuates his works are inferior and that isn't the case.

17 Mar 2010 12:35 AM
Tim G

Do like that Norhern Giant et al are going to Turfway and that Calvin will be riding.

17 Mar 2010 12:39 AM
mickey101

Here's a thought, why is dublin such a mental case? hmmmmmm.........maybe not schooled enough....could be (trainer)........maybe he should be Gelded( I'am not a trainer) so what do I know.....except that those type horse's....that use up energy displaying that kind of behavier, cost themselves running energy needed during race's , and find ways to get into (TROUBLE).....which cost them wins......it;s not the jockey people ...believe me, it's far worst than the jockey,there again that's a bad excuse...always blame someone else.

17 Mar 2010 1:38 AM
Steve (NOT Haskin)

To Forbidden Apple:  Here's the Brisnet track bias stats for  Sunland Park.  These stats are for route races run from Dec. 11, 2009 through March 14, 2010:

In that time frame the track has been favoring horses who stay within a few lengths of the pacesetter throughout the race, then run down the leader in the stretch.

Outside posts are winning the most frequently.

Horses that wire the field are winning at a 19% clip.  That's low compared to multiple other tracks I checked.  On average, horses that wire the field are winning at other tracks at about a 25% clip.  

Word of caution though - it's a crap shoot trying to determine which races will play to the stats and which won't.  

For example, in last weekends prep races the Rebel did not play to its track bias stats.  The Tampa Bay Derby did, however.  

17 Mar 2010 1:50 AM
mickey101

who was it last year that they had trouble with....dunkirk or quality road, I believe it was quality road and if my memory serves me right he was scratched in a major race.....then was injured....which brings up my next point with dublin , he could cause injury to himself or others ,such as horse's and or jockey's......billy e, just said in a earlier blog, that dublin has been getting out in the first turn.....well if I'am another owner or jockey, you don't think that's not on my mind......what if he draw's the 1 or 2 holes out of the starting gate and blow's the clubhouse turn....you could see 3,4,5,horse's take a spill...man I'am done talking about this horse...sure hope all end's well.

17 Mar 2010 3:23 AM
RG

I'd keep sending Rule. He seems to love the front end and his Sam Davis win may have been easier than it looked.

17 Mar 2010 5:55 AM
RiverCitySmitty

If both Odysseus and Homeboykris just train up to the KyD I`ll be tossing both of them.

Lightly raced horses may have their plans backfire on them with so much graded money still up for grabs.  A prime example is Esky who is on most of the top 3 lists.  If he were to get a Buddy`s Saint scenario in the Wood he would be leapfrogged on the earnings list by many and will be forced to watch the KyD on TV in his stall.

If I were Mott, Margolis or Amoss I`d seriously consider entering a rabbit in the La. Derby to avoid another merry go round race with walking fractions.

Sorry Rangul..., but I predict another 20 horse field @ CD with Pletcher having around a third of the field.  I figure at least 1 and possibly 2 will come from the desert and then do the clunker thing.  Blue Grass winner will do Dominican impersonation in Louisville and not transfer his play doh win to dirt.  SA, Sun, Ark, La and Ill. derby winners will all pack their bags

I don`t know who it may be, but I`m thinking another Giacamo type Derby this year with most or all of the pace horses catching asthma mid stretch.

17 Mar 2010 8:07 AM
Smarie

This is such an exciting time of year - watching the 3 year olds and anticipating the Kentucky Derby. Lookin At Lucky was my 2010 Derby horse last year and I haven't seen anything that has changed my mind. He has a will to win and has the physical attributes to do so. If he stays healthy, I believe he will win this year's Run for the Roses.

17 Mar 2010 10:16 AM
Slew

With everyone talking about closers, every day, more and more, I will be missing Take Control.  I think that once he's back to form, he'll rule the summer.   For the Derby itself,  I remain hopeful that Ron and Dave will pick it up, that Mendip will come. but so far LAL looks to be the cream of the crop, with Backtalk promising.

17 Mar 2010 11:16 AM
It Aint Easy being good

Mickey101 good point but I dont think that super saver is a medium closer he was on the lead at the tampa bay derby. The horse that wins this year wont be a super closer it will be one that come just off the pace like big brown did. The more and more speed I see the more you have to like Awesome Act he sits right of the pace and closes. Like Conveyance as well 4-0!!!

17 Mar 2010 11:30 AM
mickey101

I know ,I know before you all start that super saver is not a closer .... he will be laying 4 or 5 on derby day behind the real speed balls and next to eskendreya,trust me.

17 Mar 2010 1:39 PM
Billyboy

THESE are the horses with GRIT and therefore have a shot at the roses.  Awesome Act, Caracortado, Eskendereya, Nobles Promise, Odysseus, Sydneys Candy and Vale of York.  And for something completely different.  Does anyone know where The Pamplemousse is and if he will ever return to racing???

17 Mar 2010 2:13 PM
It Aint Easy being good

Looks like lentenor is going to run in the florida derby its about time!!! Put him on the dirt and see if he is a contender. I know there are alot of people that think he will not hit the board but he looks smooth and sometimes horses love the dirt! I dont think there is much in this race besides .....RULE!

17 Mar 2010 3:11 PM
Irish

I agree with RiverCitySmitty about another Giacomo-style outcome this year.  Too many front runners, too many of the others have question marks, no real obvious standout.

I like to research Derby history and have found that kind of a set-up usually leads to a big upset.

I don't think it will be a 50-1 winner though.  Historically in the year after a 50-1 wins the Derby, bettors won't let anybody leave the gate that high.  So my guess it will be in the 20 to 30 range.

17 Mar 2010 3:49 PM
ron the Roman

Slew- Backtalk's next prep is the Illinois derby

17 Mar 2010 4:09 PM
Tim G

Geez, Dublin ISN'T getting out and running through the rail. He takes it too wide, not dangerously so.

He's a handful just like The Program that is Bafferts.

He hasn't come close to injuring a jockey. How SOON you all forget FuPeg and his wild things, or Coronado's Quest or any number of horses. He's a good feeling colt who is full of himself. He doesn't BLOW the turn and I'm not sure why you all think he does. He runs wide during a lot of the race.

Yep Mickey and Billy I sure would rather having you guys training him than Wayne.... These aren't pony ride horses, they're high strung animals on the edge.

He's not a rogue by any stretch of the imagination and SOME people who have been spreading stuff about him would be wise to cool it.

If you only want to badmouth him or Wayne and you're done with him then fine, be done with all your negativity.

17 Mar 2010 5:56 PM
JB

ED,

Gomez isn't riding a Derby horse for Pletcher so there isn't anything to beware of.

17 Mar 2010 6:30 PM
Fabriso

I believe that Corey is perfect ride for DUBLIN.. He returned after many months off.

17 Mar 2010 8:53 PM
GunBow

I'm not sure if anyone else mentioned this, but the original chart for the Tampa Bay Derby was wrong.

The field was not spearated by less than 4 lengths at the wire as the chart originally indicated.  The original chart had the top 5 correct, with just 2.75 lengths separating them.  However, in the new, correct chart it was 6.75 lengths from 5th place Uptowncharlybrown to 6th place Slammy Boy, not 1 length as the original chart suggested.

Thus the 7 horse field of the TB Derby was actually separated by 9.5 lengths, not 3.75 as earlier reported.

17 Mar 2010 9:36 PM
GunBow

One reason the Santa Anita Derby may not have a bigger impact on the Kentucky Derby is that some of the most promising dirt horses have already left California.  

Baffert took both Conveyance and Lookin at Lucky to Oaklawn for the Southwest and Rebel respectively.  Conveyance is now targeting the Sunland Derby for his final prep and while Lookin at Lucky is possible for the SA Derby, the Arkansas Derby is more likely.  American Lion will be leaving Cali for his last prep, and I would be surprised if Tiz Chrome, should he be healthy, stays in Cali either.  At least with the horses planning to stay in town for the SA Derby, Caracortado has already won on dirt, and Sidney's Candy has proven that he has plenty of speed(not a synthetic "plodder").

In addition to the above listed horses, Alphie's Bet will bypass the SA Derby for the Blue Grass(also on synthetic so less relevant for my argument) and Connemara will likely run in the Lane's End(also on synthetic).

While SA Derby horses fared decently last year, with Pioneer of the Nile running 2nd and Chocolate Candy 5th, the Cali contingent had already lost Papa Clem(Louisiana Derby, Arkansas Derby) who ran 4th in the Derby and the morning-line favorite for the Derby, Gotham and Wood winner I Want Revenge.  Additionally, SoCal based Kelly Leak won the Sunland Derby instead of trying the SA Derby as did Baffert's Scorewithcater.  Both finished ahead of Mine That Bird in the Sunland Derby.

17 Mar 2010 9:50 PM
ED

HI JB, the point I am making is that both Pletcher and Gomez are nought in the derby,hence beware of both despite how good they chances look

17 Mar 2010 10:14 PM
Coldfacts

Fran Loszynski,

I am in agreement that anything can happen in a horse race. Dublin had home court advantage and the fitness edge on LAL and Nobles Promise and it didn’t happen for him. He was working lights out and his trainer stated that he would not trade places with anyone. You have forgotten that Lukas will destroy this colt to get to the derby. Flying Private finished last in the 2009 Derby and was entered in the Preakness when most of the colts that finished ahead of him were given a rest. He miraculously finished 3rd in the Preakness. Obviously Lukas would not let him miss the Belmont. He finished sixth in the Belmont. He gained a check but when was the last time you saw him nominated to race? In 2007 Lukas had a promising 2YO colt with a May foaling date by the name of Pegasus Wind. He forced into the 2007 Champagne off a maiden win and followed up with a start in the BCJ. He has not been heard from since. This clot was rushed back from surgery and I have serious reservations that he enter the derby starting gates. Lukas will destroy this colt to get to the derby and he is well on his way. Conveyance ran the last 2F of the Southwest in 26.27 and Dublin could not catch him. The fourth quarter of the Rabel was run in 26.06 and he engaged reverses gear. You should determine whether you want to be loyal of realistic.

17 Mar 2010 11:51 PM
Coldfacts

Fire Slam,

There is no need for the sarcasm as everyone knows that horses are not aware of who their dams and sires are. The cold facts are the colt facts. There is a category of broodmares that to date have not produced a derby winner. Dublin’s dam just happens to fall into this category. It is a historic negative that has to be overcome for him to win the derby and so far it appears the history is holding firm. I do not make the records I just highlight them.  

Swale’s dam Tuerta won one Glll race and earned $125K from her 25 starts times. Dublin’s dam Classy Image won three Gl and a number of Gll & Glll races for her $716K of earnings. She is automatically disqualified ad a derby broodmare. In 2009, I disqualified the dams of Dunkirk ($1.2M) Friesan Fire ($673K) and Papa Clem (winner of Del Mar Debutante G1) They I can with justification state did not win the derby. They were all quality colts but they all had the same problem. They did not fit the derby winner’s profile. Tuerta was not the only mare born in 1970 that produced derby winners. Bel Sheba and Spectacular produced Alysheba and Spectacular Bid.

On the subject of Boundary/Big Brown, it was not difficult to determine that it was possible. In the last 20 year 12 of the derby winners came from the Raise A Native sire line. The next sire line with the most was Northern Dancer. Boundary became Northern Dancer’s third grandson to sire a derby winner in this period. The line that have has success in the derby in the last 20 year tend to have repeat victors.

Buzz My Bell was indeed a Gl winner and grindstone was one of the few January foals that won the derby. I would not have selected his to win in a million year. I believe January foals are flawed as most of them are conceived by manipulating the cycle of the mare. This is the reason I have disqualified Rule, Odysseus, Aikenite, and D Funnybone as possible derby winners.

I am surprised you did not mentioned the dam of Sunday Silence who hold the record of the highest earning broodmare to eve produce a KD winner. No derby winning mare has come close to her $381K. She was born in 1975 and produced Sunday Silence 11 years later. He won the 1989 KD and during the 20 years that have since elapsed, no derby winning broodmare earning has reached $300K.  The cold facts indicate that broodmares have done extremely or reasonable well at the graded level havenot been the one turning out the derby winners. The dam of Eskendereya the #1 ranked colt on Steve’s dozen earned $18K.  The dam od his #2 ranked colt Lookin At Lucky earned $18K. The dam of his  #3 ranked colt Interactif was unraced. The trend seems to be continuing why not go with the flow.

18 Mar 2010 12:59 AM
Forbidden Apple

Steve, thank you very much for the information on Sunland Park. I am looking forward to watching Conveyance in their Derby.

Ranagulzion, the KY Derby will have a full field, no horse is going to skip the race because Pletcher has a several starters in the race. You talk like Pletcher is the only guy who can train a horse, get serious already. Eskenereya is skipping the FL Derby to avoid running against his stablemate Rule. Rule is far from a sure thing on saturday, with any pace pressure his is quite vulnerable. Now I know why I kept Lentenor on my list until this week. I was keeping an eye out for a possible start in the FL Derby, he can win from just off the pace. And Eskendereya is also far from a sure thing in the Wood. He will have to battle it out with Awesome Act to be in the winner's circle.

Maybe Vale of York can run better in the UAE Derby, but he looks to me like a synthetic/turf horse. I see Mendip clearly as the best chance for Godolphin in this years KY Derby.

I have written this before but I will say it again, Dublin is an average horse. He is another overpriced runner for Lukas and that is it. If he had a different trainer we would not be hearing as much hype over this horse. He is all bark and no bite!

18 Mar 2010 11:27 AM
Slew

Coldfacts: I'm so sorry, but with all your facts and figures, and long-winded hypothesis, your suppositions oppose history.  According to your theories, you would have totally discounted the first foal to a first time sire and a first time mare.  In which case you would have totally ignored Seattle Slew! (Which might explain why you blog instead of piling up your winnings...just a little jab meant there)

Ron the Roman...Amoss is not decided on whether it will be Illinois or the Wood for Backtalk.  I think he can take the Wood.  Louisiana will host many of the same horses in the LA Derby that appeared in the Risen Star, including A Little Warm, Discreetly Mine, Drosselmeyer, Letsgetitonmon, Mission Impazible, Mister Marti Gras, Ron the Greek, Stay Put, The Program and Wow Wow Wow.

18 Mar 2010 12:10 PM
Ranagulzion

FORBIDDEN APPLE,

If the Kentucky Derby has a field of 20 horses so be it but I am still hopeful that "Esky" and Rule will send a very strong message to all pretenders that they are waaay overmatched and should seek easier opportunities other than the first Saturday in May.  I know that nobody will stay away just because "Pletcher has several starters in the race" and I never suggested that. What I'm looking for isn't just a lucky horse (no pun intended and no malice towards LAL 'cause he is worthy)but for the best of a quality field of worthy competitors.  That's all ...my point should be clear enough now.

BTW the Todd Squad are doing well and looking more awesome with each passing week. "Esky", Rule, Super Saver, Interactif, Connemara, Discreetly Mine and Mission Impazable are going to take a lot of beatng ...if you catch my drift (beating them is going to require herculean effort ...Okay?) They could quite probably comandeer all placings 1-5. From my vantage point the Dutrow gang poses the greatest threat with D'Funnybone, Radiohead and the "hitman" Homeboykris.  Beyond these Baffert's dynamic duo of Conveyance and Looking At Lucky as well as Awesome Act, Caracortado and Sydney's Candy will make it interesting.  I've been reevaluating the pedigree and performances of Schoolyard Dreams and believe that he could break into the ranks of the elite ..he's an imposing looking individual too.

More anon.

18 Mar 2010 1:51 PM
Coldfacts

Slew,

You are liberty to discredit the history I highlight at your own peril. On the subject of Seattle Slew you are dead wrong about what would have been my assessment of him. Between 1970 and 1979 the Bold Ruler sire line produced 7 of the 10 derby winners. Seattle Slew was the sixth in line, he was followed by the seventh Spectacular Bid. Why would anyone discount an impressive horse from the Bold Ruler sire line during a period when it had what could have been considered a strangle hold on the derby. We all have different views about the Derby and its contenders. I have created certain categories of performers and non performers. I am not shackled by my patterns analysis as there can be exceptions to any rule.  I use the system I have established to develop a profile of a derby winner.  If a particular horse does not fit this profile I put an asterisk against it. The horse with the best derby profile based on my system happens to be Lookin at Lucky. In spite of his high ranking on my chart I will not pick him to win as his sire was the dam sire of the 2009 Derby winner Mine That Bird. I do not have the entire history of the derby but I have records for the last 70 years. My records reflect that the dam sire of a derby in one year has never been the sire of the winner in the next year. So in spite of LAL brilliance do not expect him to win the derby base on what history reflects. Call me crazy but the history of the derby is what it is. It’s not always the best horse in the derby field that wins. It more often than not the one that fits the data on the derby chart.

18 Mar 2010 8:33 PM
Matthew W

VERY impressed wityh Interactif! VERY nice stride! Whether he dirts is another question. Lookin At Lucky, what can you say? Think Sidneys Candy is a middle distance type--a nice horse, though, as is Caracortado---also I LOVE the way Alphies Bet and Connemara are flying under the radar--Connemara is regally bred, Alphies Bet kicks like a mule--he'll get the Derby Distance, unlike Caracortado....

18 Mar 2010 8:52 PM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion ,    

I am happy to see that you are focused on Connemara. I have told you in the past that he is the only member of the squad that has a chance of winning the derby. I do not like the fact that his sire has been over bred but his tough dam should prove to be the equalizer. The effortless mid race moves that he has been displaying is the ideal running style for a Churchill Downs track that consumes horses that do not a fluent stride pattern.

I see Eskendereya is being pointed to the Wood to get more competition. The connection of this colt should be careful what they wish for. If he was able to run away from the grossly under sized Jackson Bend are slow fractions, he will have no such luck with Nachos Friend, Awesome Act and the other top class shippers. In fact, I am of the opinion it was a big mistake to bypass the Florida Derby as he has no chance of winning the Wood. Are you aware Mr. Pletcher has never won the Wood? He has chosen the wrong time to try.  I do not like Eskendereya’s action and I think it will not be suited to the Big A. Good Luck

Do not waste any money on Rule in the Florida Derby he will not escape the late developers at nine furlongs.

18 Mar 2010 9:11 PM
Forbidden Apple

Ranagulzion, someone has to keep you in check. A few weeks ago you were saying that other horseman will be scared to run against Eskendereya. Take a look back at your own words and you will see what I am talking about. You were also calling Eskendereya the next triple crown winner as of February. Do you work for team Pletcher?

I like Connemara the best out of his bandwagon. Rule does not have to win on Saturday, he is a terrible bet at 2-1 or less. Okay more anon?

18 Mar 2010 10:09 PM
JB

Forbidden Apple,

Dublin is not an average horse, he just isn't a Derby horse, he would be a better horse if placed properly. He would love 7 furlongs or a one turn mile. Too call him "average" is not doing that horse justice.

18 Mar 2010 11:21 PM
JB

Slew

Backtalk is running in the Illinois Derby

18 Mar 2010 11:22 PM
JB

Rangulzion

You state that you don't want 20 horses in the Derby yet you list 15 horses that you think could run good in there, and you left out Dublin who will obviously be there because it is Lukas, Zito is gonna throw something in and there will be a few others, therefore you seem to want 20 horses in there. And you obviously don't know anything about training or trainers because there is know way you are talking a trainer out of taking a shot with a good three year old they have in there barn,  you never know if you will get another one and it isn't like you can run him in next years Derby.

18 Mar 2010 11:27 PM
JB

Coldfacts,

I don't know what point you are trying to make with all your sire lines and broodmare lines, the fact of the matter is a lot that just happens because many of those sires are in just about every horse. They are very influential in thoroughbreds so you can't just toss horses because certain sires aren't present. But it's people like you that make the horses I want to bet better prices. Because you over analyze everything, It is March and you are handicapping the Derby you don;t know who is gonna run, you don;t what the weather is gonna be, you aren't sure what the bias of the track will be so you go ahead and continue analyzing this race and I will wait until the entries come out see where the horses I have been watching are breaking from and decide if I wanna play them

18 Mar 2010 11:32 PM
Ron the Roman

Slew- You are right, the exact spot for Backtalk has not been determined yet, but I am highly confident in my source telling me he is going to Hawthorne.

The LA Derby will be an interesting race, as you stated most of the same field will be there. One main difference- Ron will get his pace and surpass it in the stretch.

19 Mar 2010 12:57 AM
JerseyBoy

Excellent list Steve. But I notice that on the community list Super Saver falls to number 10. I am set on handicapping weight differences and in my book the second best performance last weekend came from Super Saver. He was beaten half a length while conceding 6 pounds to the first 2 finishers. In my book he would have beaten the first two by 2 lengths at level weights.

I am inflexible in my belief that weight is a burden and that 122 pounds is a greater burden than 116 pounds.

19 Mar 2010 8:46 AM
RiverCitySmitty

Coldfacts: I agree with your assessment of the Esky defection to the Wood.  He`d likely have faced horses in Fla. Derby that he`s already trounced and would have been a prohibitive favorite in a fairly small field.  The gap between the ill-conceived FD switch and the KyD was the owner`s rationale, but he`ll be up against the same "gap" while awaiting the Wood.  If he were to not take to the Aqu surface or encounter a Buddy`s Saint trip in NY, he runs a serious risk of getting leap frogged in the earnings by quite a few and possibly be shut out on Derby day.

As for Rule, he has money in the bank and may just use the race as a rating experiment.  I won`t be playing him Saturday, but if were to rate he`s probably a winner.  About half the field is still elligible for NW2 and one of these may spring the upset.  I`ll prolly put a few bucks on Soaring Empire and just kick back and watch the race.

Was Tempted to Tapit really named by Tiger Woods?

19 Mar 2010 8:48 AM
Slew

Coldfacts: I stated I was taking a jab, it was friendly :-). but like JB, I think you over-analyze everything.  Too many facts just interfere with my gut....and my gut is usually better than most handicappers' analyses.  I like to watch the post parade, check out the horses and their demeanor.  Then I pick 3 that I like.  More often than not, 2 are in the money, 1 is far back...though sometimes I luck out with the top 3.  And once in a great while, I'm totally off.  So if you're system works for you, great.  Mine works best for me.  So Congaree didn't pan out in his Triple Crown bid...he was always in the money.

19 Mar 2010 10:53 AM
Billy's Empire

Hey Tim G,

Nothing I said was negative. What I said was the truth. Funny how you know everything and no one else can know a thing about Dublin. I like the horse, therefore I keep up with him. I think that his training is a very good reason why he is having issues in his races. I could care less if Dublin ran the fastest work in the morning. That is how Wayne trains his horses, they are always quick workers. That also sometimes leads to the horse wanting to run on and not rate, wheter it was Corey's fault, or Dublin's he made a big early middle move and tired in the stretch.

I also love the fact that you always want to question me. I find it amusing. Are you insecure about who or what you know in the business lil timmy? I am done with you. And you call me negative. That is laughable.  

"He hasn't come close to injuring a jockey" --TIM G

Ok, so you call throwing 2 riders off, while being gate schooled, is not close to injuring a jockey, one of which was Thompson... Brilliant.. You know so much, why don't you go ask him yourself

19 Mar 2010 10:59 AM
Tony Barreto

The desicion to run Eskendereya at Wood Memorial has been very asertive. The colt will have more time for his prep to the race and just 4 weeks before the Derby. To me, this is the most talent horse so far.

19 Mar 2010 11:13 AM
Ranagulzion

COLDFACTS,

I'd like to meet you back here after the runnings of the Florida Derby and the Wood to see you eat crow ...and lots of it Pal.  Prepare for a bellyfull on Derby day.

FORBIDDEN APPLE,

I don't wish to go over ground already covered with you.  If you want to think of me as a "Pletcher groupie" (your previous description), be my guest. I think that you have very short term memory of our discussions on here.  Anyway its the results on the track that will show who knows what they are talking about.

JB,

I identified 15 horses that I think would be competitive but I wasn't predicting the starting line-up.  BTW the regular starting gate holds about 16 horses ...that would be enough for me.  

19 Mar 2010 1:43 PM
Footlick

Hey Billy's Empire-

How's it going?

19 Mar 2010 4:29 PM
zarvona

Pretty sad for my early 'sack of potatoes' hopefuls, when the outcome of the 'Lane's End' is shaping up to be way more significant to the 'Kenturcky Derby' than the 'FLorida Derby' will be this year!

20 Mar 2010 2:28 AM
Slew

This past year was my first with HRTV, and so the first time I have actually gotten to see all the preps, and make up my own mind.  Before that, my first look at the Derby contenders was the Derby.  I remember one year, the analysts just couldn't say enough about one particular horse.  He was touted to be the greatest to come along in a long time.  He was expected to take the Triple Crown.  He just didn't seem to be "all that" when he ran in the Derby...he barely showed up.  At the Preakness, he showed up with guns blazing, and I finally got to see beyond the hype.  He was not over-hyped, he was spectacular.  In the Belmont, he was sensational.  It was 2001, and his name was Point Given.  I've never forgotten that year, nor have I ever again dismissed a horse because he ran one race poorly.  I am still looking for that horse that can take my breath away.  I'm not on the Esky band wagon yet.  I was impressed by LALucky, and Dublin.  I'll continue hanging on to Ron and Dave until I see how their next race goes.  Backtalk has speed, and I hope he goes to the Wood, but gets some focus.  Mendip is still strong for me.  I'm wondering if New Madrid will step into the AR Derby.  (loved his daddy-which may be the only reason I want to pick Best Actor in the Fla Derby).

20 Mar 2010 7:28 AM
Slew

PS. Flatter Than Me has been running some impressive works at the Fair Grounds, but Ron has been slowing down.

20 Mar 2010 7:30 AM
Coldfacts

Steve,

I have been focusing on the last 70 year of Kentucky Derby history. The history during this period reflects one winning KD stallion as unraced and that was Alibhai a son of the influential Hyperion. He was the sire of the 1954 Derby winner Determine. Why am I highlighting this fact? Well Determine’s dam Koubis was also unraced. It’s hard to imagine that two unknown quantities combined to produce the winner of the premier race in the US. Where am I going with this? Well, the Florida Derby. When the gates open on Saturday a colt by the name Pleasant Prince will leave with the sire and dam status of Determine. Pleasant Prince’s sire Indy king is an unraced son of A.P. Indy and his dam Archduchess is an unraced daughter of Pleasant Tap. He was 4th in the FOY. It was reported sometime ago that his trainer didn’t travel to Australia with one of charges that was to race in a staked race because he didn’t want stray too far from the Pleasant Prince. His last reported work was 59.1 handily. It’s hard to imaging a colt with this type of pedigree working 59 handily. Could this mean he has come to hand?  Another interesting thing about Pleasant Prince is the history between his grandsire A.P. Indy and his dam sire Pleasant Tap. A.P. Indy was badly beaten Pleasant Tap in the 1992 Jockey Club Gold Cup. He would return to gain revenge in the Breeders Cup Classic of the same year. Pleasaant finished second to him in the BCC. Could a son and a daughter of these two old rivals team up for the next Florida Derby winner? Well, if the unknown Alibhai and Koubis teamed up and produced a derby winner, it s quite possible that Indy King  and Archduchess to produce the FL Derby winner.

He is worth a wager and a space on or under your radar.

20 Mar 2010 8:15 AM
Coldfacts

JB,

Thanks for your comments. I sometimes wonder what all the information I have assembled means. I merely highlight historic fact. Some folks appreciate it and some do not. You are correct that most horses have a little of each line. However, if one sire line dominates the Triple Crown series of races there must be a reason.  If a particular broodmare line dominates the Triple Crown series of races there must be a reason.  What exactly is/are the reason/s? Your guess is as good as mine. I am searching for this/these reason/s. I have an idea but I would be labeled crazy should I mention it here. Why has no broodmare sired by Secretariat, Mr. Prospector, Storm Cat and A.P. Indy  produce a derby winner? Collectively they sired 2500 broodmares who produced foals. They were bred to some of the best mares to grace the track. Why has no mare that has been a champion on the track produced the winner of a TC race? They were bred to the top stallions and their foals are sold for millions. I am still searching for answer to some of these questions.

“You can't just toss horses because certain sires aren't present”

I am not sure I understand the above statement as I have never stated that as a policy.

“But it's people like you that make the horses I want to bet better prices”

I have never fancied the use of the term ‘peoples like you.’ This reference makes a particular group seem sinister or misguided. I just view the derby with a broader scope, using historic data along with regular handicapping techniques. I am not sure which of the horses you want to bet, but I can give you a little historic information. If it's Eskendereya,, no stallion directly connected Storm Cat has ever sire the winner of a Triple Crown race. One hundred of his sons entered the breeding shed. He probably has twice that amount of grandsons as stallions. None of Seattle Slew’s 300 plus broodmare have produced a derby winner to date. Last but not least, the most powerful stable in the US, has never won the derby. In fact, the only TC race Mr. Pletcher has won it was by a short head and it took an exceptional filly. Did I over analyze Eskendereya’s historic negatives? Well he associated with a triple negative. What does this mean? He has to be either exceptional or the opposition has to be inferior for him to win the derby. Is he an exceptional colt? The quick answer is No. Are the other colts on Steve’s list inferior? The quick answer is No. So Eskendereya’s is in deep water. Can he carry the burden of his three negative to victory? I would wager handsomely against it.

“It is March and you are handicapping the Derby you don’t know who is going to run, you don’t what the weather is going to be, and you aren't sure what the bias of the track will”

Mr. Haskin has compiled a derby dozen. Does he know who the starter will be? An early evaluation of possible starters should not be confused with handicapping. Experience handicappers normally make adjustment when track conditions change. Why would a forecast for the 1st Saturday in May be relevant in March? Big Brown has put to rest the post position fear.

My friend we can have a meaningful exchange without the negative. The derby is a race that intrigues me. The profile of the past winners allows one to appreciate how difficult it is to either breed, select, own, train or indentify a derby winner.  I tend to focus on horses with above average ability that have the least historic negative and the most historic positives. I am also a gambler and I have designed a wager that cover possible incidentals as any think can happen in a horse race.  

20 Mar 2010 8:24 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

Since you are so convinced that Mr. Letcher horses will win the Wood and FL Derby, what will you consume when the do not?

Let look at Rule:

The last sixteenth of the Sam Davis was run in 6.9. Let's assume he was able to maintain this pace for another sixteen, his projected time for 9F would be 1:51.05. Now, do you think he can run three seconds faster at Gulfstream to record a 1:48 plus clocking like his stable mate? Let’s assume he is capable of covering the distance in 1:49 plus, will this time be capable of beating this field? Pleasant Prince the 4th place finisher in The FOY worked 59.1 handily. If the carries his work into the race he is likely to be the horse to beat as he is ideally bred for 9F. Good luck.

20 Mar 2010 8:41 AM
rjb92

discreetly mine is my top pick, looks like a horse in shape and speed that stays. my longshot is american lion. his last race showed he was in a choke hold almost entire trip. just let him run just off the lead and he guns them down from the outside. looking for lucky and alphies bet will be in the photo also. good luck if they run.

20 Mar 2010 10:16 AM
Zookeeper

Coldfacts,

One thing I must say about your comments is that you tell us things I didn't know anything about. Thank you!

20 Mar 2010 11:44 AM
Ranagulzion

COLDFACTS,

Am I to take it that Pleasant Prince is your pick in the Florida Derby ... and what makes you think that he can win?  I trust that you are not playing "the field" against Rule ...not that it will affect the outcome. Get ready for a diet of crow buddy.

20 Mar 2010 12:43 PM
JerseyBoy

Coldfacts:

Your remarks were not directed at me but I think I can help. The reason people become intrigued by  Triple Crown pedigrees is that they treat these races as being different.

Here is another fact that you might find intriguing:

In the last 20 years no sire has produced more than one Kentucky Derby winner. It is a fact but it is irrelevant in that it has no predictive value. Yet some  might make it a new 20-year "rule".

(Note: Footstepsinthesand by Giants Causeway,a son of Storm Cat, won the English 2000 Guineas).

20 Mar 2010 2:21 PM
Slew

It's been one of those days!  Right now, the horses are sitting in the barn, playing poker with cards made from pictures of bettors at the window, and having a big horse laugh as Ice Box holds a royal flush, and Devil May Care bats her tail in the face of Rule.  Meanwhile Unrivaled Belle has taken a stroll, looking for D'Funnybone who is looking for a Hot Dixie Chick on Bourbon Bay.

20 Mar 2010 7:33 PM
Slew

And Coldfacts:  my skill as a handicapper is exemplified by the long shot I chose.  Best Actor is still running around Gulfstream Park trying to find out where the finish line is....of course he may have stopped to chat up filly along the way, because he heard that his dad was a real stud.  Other than that, I was sort of OK...well today...maybe a little less than okay.  Thank God for Bourbon Bay bringing it home.

20 Mar 2010 8:45 PM
sherpa

Slew - LOL at your 7:33 post! Very well done! ;-)

20 Mar 2010 9:12 PM
Coldfacts

JerseyBoy

Many thanks for the information. Storm Cat is a son of Storm Bird who was the 1980 champion 2YO in Ireland & the Unite Kingdom. It is not difficult to see horses directly linked to him doing well on turf. My comments are restricted to the Triple Crown series of races. Unlike our neighbors to the North, no leg of the US TC is run on turf. I could mention that Shamardal a son of Giant’s Causeway won French Guineas & Derby and was champion 2YO but what relevance would this have when it is the history of the dirt record that is being highlighted.

“In the last 20 years no sire has produced more than one Kentucky Derby winner”

The above bit of information is known but I would not mention it as I would have to compare it to the previous 20 year in which three stallions i.e., Halo, Bold Bidder and Exclusive Native sire two derby winners. A bit of information with more predictive value would be the fact that in the last 70 year no stallion has sired back to back derby winners. Consequently, all Birdstone 3YOs can be eliminated from derby winning consideration.  

I do get your point.

20 Mar 2010 9:37 PM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion

One down and one to go! The rider of Pleasant Prince must be having nightmares as he thought the race was over. He cost me a lot of money but live goes on. I am still awaiting the dish you are going to consume. You are allowed to consume half now and the other half late on the evening of the 27th.

20 Mar 2010 9:44 PM
Zookeeper

Coldfacts,

At Santa Anita today, I was telling a friend about your theory and that your pick was Pleasant Prince in the Fl. Derby. When she saw the odds, she ran and placed a modest $5 bet on him to Show. Now you're her hero! Good call Coldfacts! This was a very tough beat. What did Leparoux do wrong? After reading your comment, I watched the replay carefully and still didn't see anything. What am I missing?

20 Mar 2010 11:53 PM
Ranagulzion

COLDFACTS,

Pleasant Prince did not win the race therefore you have no grounds on which to expect me to eat humble pie.  Your jockey misjudged the finish (from your point of view) but I'd say the cold fact is that he got nailed by a stronger hell-for-leather closer.  You have a cock-eyed excuse but I have a more plausable one for Rule's defeat.  Its simple, he went too fast too early and just failed close home.  Johnny V admitted that he should have backed off of those hot fractions but at least Todd Pletcher knows what he has to do for this one to rebound on Derby Day. Please don't even think about suggesting that Rule doesn't stay 10 Furlongs unless you can't read pedigree and pace, but I'm sure you can.

Rule lost this one but "Esky" is in a class by himself in the Wood. I know that 3YOs with certain pedigree configurations are improving overnight at this time of year so I wont be surprised by break-out performances. Nevertheless I don't see Eskendereya being beaten and I don't expect that Todd Pletcher will instruct Johnny V to turn on the afterburners until the first Saturday in May. Therefore continue to prepare for your diet of crow my friend.  "Esky" will not let you get away with all those ridiculous arguments against his pedigree, fluent "Secretariat-like" galloping action and sheer star-power ...he's gonna get you on Derby Day and you are gonna begin to have nervous stomach following the running of the Wood Memorial. Remember that Ranagulzion told you so.

21 Mar 2010 12:12 AM
Coldfacts

Steve,

When you came out with your first Derby Dozen, I indicated that based on a pattern analysis I had undertaken, no horses from the Raise A Native sire line is likely to win the 2010 KD. Having posted such a bold statement, I have certainly set myself up to look like a complete idiot should one from this line win. Let me quickly remind all that the RAN sire line produced the winners of 7 of the 10 derbies contested in the last decade. Seven of the colts that have found a place in your last dozen are from the RAN sire line. It can truly be classified as the Raise A Native line versus the other. A true test of whether my pattern analysis is of any value would be the assess the performance of the RAN line versus others. The logical measure would be the major derby preps to date. I know some of your sharp supporters will quickly remind me that Mine That Bird did not win a derby prep so let me preempt them and highlight this fact. Below is a summation of the major preps to date and the sires responsible for the winners:

Sham -  Alphies Bet by Tribal Rule ( Storm Cat)

Holy Bull – Winslow Homer – Unbridleds Song (RAN)

Lecomte – Ron The Greek -  Full Mandate (A. P’ Indy)

San Rafael – Conveyance -  Indian Charlie – (In Excess)

Risen Star –  Discreetly Mine – Minsshaft – (A. P. Indy)

San Felipe –  Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride (RAN)

Whirlaway –  Peppie Knows – Stephen Got Even (A. P. Indy)

Southwest -  Conveyance -  Indian Charlie – (In Excess)

Sam Davis – Rule – Roman Ruler (RAN)

FOY  - Eskendereya – Giant’s Causeway (Storm Cat)

Robert Lewis – Caracortado -  Cat Dreams (Storm Cat)

El Camino Derby – Connemara - Giant’s Causeway (Storm Cat)

Gotham – Awesome Act – Awesome Again (Deputy Minister)

Rebel – Lookin At Lucky – (RAN)

Tampa Bay Derby – Odyssues – Malibu Moon - (A. P. Indy)

San Rafael – Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride (RAN)

Florida Derby - Ice Box – Tapit (A. P. Indy)

Of the 17 significant preps to date, the score reads Raise A Native sire line 5 and the others 12. If the pending Derby Dozen does not reflect a significant reduction in the number of RAN line contenders, then it will not reflect a true representation of advantage of the other lines. There are about seven significant preps remaining and the majority at 9F. It appears the stamina is in abundance in the category of others and I expect this category to dominate the remaining preps. It therefore appears that my pattern analysis is well on its way to validation..

21 Mar 2010 9:05 AM
RiverCitySmitty

Well well.  Esky has now dropped another 2 spots on the earnings list by sitting out the FD.  Likely to drop at least one more spot next weekend, but maybe as many as 4 or 5 with the Sunland & LaD as well as the Play Doh Stakes @ Turfway.  I think Zayat may be a tad PO`d @ GP for their switch.

Christine, what happened?  Devil May Care`s win sure makes Jody Slew`s win in the Silverbulletday look more impressive.  All East coast West coast with no respect for Midwest horses.  Remember, several of the KyOaks winners in recent years have gone the FG path.  I had Joannie`s Catch yesterday figuring she couldn`t run 2nd 4 times in a row.  She proved me sorta right by running 3rd.

Not really a bad race by Rule, but he had to run faster than usual and it looked like it took its toll on him.  Add another 8th on derby day and maybe even faster fractions and, well, he won`t be on any of my tickets.

21 Mar 2010 9:39 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

Do I detect an element of bitterness in your most recent post? Below are two extracts from posts regarding the colt Pleasant Prince:

“Could a son and a daughter of these two old rivals team up for the next Florida Derby winner? Well, if the unknown Alibhai and Koubis teamed up and produced a derby winner, it s quite possible that Indy King and Archduchess to produce the FL Derby winner. He is worth a wager and a space on or under your radar.”

“Pleasant Prince the 4th place finisher in The FOY worked 59.1 handily. If the carries his work into the race he is likely to be the horse to beat as he is ideally bred for 9F. Good luck.”

Now, where in those two quotes did I definitively state that Pleasant Prince would win? I advise you he was the horse to beat and that Rule would not be able to out run the late developers at 9F. I was right on both accounts. You on the other hand implied that Rule would not loose. The horse you selected finished behind the one I selected and in spite of your reluctance, you should man up and accept the results. If the results were different I would be at your mercy. I would be probably suspended from Steve’s blogs.

“Your jockey misjudged the finish (from your point of view)”

Again you are way off the mark. My post reads as follows: “The rider of Pleasant Prince must be having nightmares as he thought the race was over” Ice Box headed Pleasant Prince and Leparoux asked him for more and he responded and regained the lead. When this occurred he took the stick off and resorted to hand riding the colt. That is what I meant when I said he thought the race was over. Great jocks do not lose races that close to the post when they regain a lead. Your post suggests that you were happy this colt lost as it no doubt gave you an out. There is no need to attack me as I only try to present the cold facts. I cannot imagine what will occur when the Big one loses on Saturday. NB: I never suggested the dish you should consume and it certainly wouldn’t be humble pie since you didn’t suggest that for me. It’s all fun and I love your defense of the Todd Squad. However, you need to take your losses like a man as I have done so many time in the past.

21 Mar 2010 12:37 PM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion

"Get ready for a diet of crow buddy"

The above quote suggests that there was no way Rule could lose. When those statement are posted, one should be very sure they do not come back to haunt. I told you he had stamina limitation and even Steve keep pointing to the fact the he is one dimensional. Now you!

"Esky" will not let you get away with all those ridiculous arguments against his pedigree

You were clearly in a bitter mood when you posted the quote above. The historic negatives associated with Esky’s pedigree are facts that can be verified. The fact that they have no significance to you does not render them ridiculous. Have you ever considered why a Giant’s Causeway sired colt with a Triple Crown wining dam sire was only sold for $250K? Probably a soft market. Clearly there was not a lot of serious interest. I think his action is a bit suspect but time will tell. You have glorified this colt and I have accepted it and highlighted that there are some historic negatives that have to be overcome for a derby victory. I cannot see the harm in the information I have provided. It certainly does not justify an attack.

21 Mar 2010 12:59 PM
Matthew W

Coldfacts Storm Cat is a sire of sires! Alphies Bet is big in the right places--he's a runner who would've probably won for a mil at Gulfstream yesterday--but goes for sevenfitty against Lookin At Lucky, Interactif, Sydneys Candy, Caracortado?...he's my sleeper horse, also have Connamera in the futures at (I think) 46-1....shocked to not see Eskendareya in Florida Derby--guess they cannot risk a loss when he's on the block--an aside, since fillies would have no extra $$ value if THEY lose, and Rachel's "ok", like I think she is---why did they choose to not go? If Moss is willing and ready to RISK AN UNBEATEN HORSE (!!!!)

21 Mar 2010 1:23 PM
trebloc

Pletcher is cooked, unless he can get his horse to win off the pace.  

21 Mar 2010 1:30 PM
yawannabet

All timely comments, but the most important steps on the trail are still to be made and there are major contenders that are not getting press yet.  Everyone wants to sound like a genius so early on, but the fact of the matter is that the Kentucky Derby is an entity unto itself.  Many a great horse has not won this race, and many horses careers have fizzled after winning.  Vale of York?  Khalifa?  Blind Luck?  

21 Mar 2010 1:30 PM
Matthew W

1972...the three year old season of first Riva Ridge, later it was Key To The Mint---I was 13, a paperboy, my dad would take me to the track, a week before SA Derby, the two big favorites, Cal Breds Royal Owl and Macarthaur Park worked out between races, both at a mile...Mac Park went out first...46 half, 1:10 2/5...1:35 3/5 to the "oohs and ahs"...then Royal Owl, this huge son of Crazy Kid with brilliand Speed...1:09 2/5....1:34 3/5...and I'm like "Dad, next week we're going to bet on Quack"....anyway, Mac Park retired before the SA Derby, Royal Owl bombed as a heavy fave....but Quack didn't win, he had another of his hang jobs, like he did against a rubber-legged Riva Ridge in Riva's gutty Hol Derby later that year...no, it was ANOTHER Cal Bred, Solar Salute, (Jerry Fanning??), whop stole the race/stole the show that day...all in all a strong crop of three year olds--Key To The Mint got the Eclipse--I thought Riva Ridge deserved it....Quack, right after his Hol Derby hang job, ran one of the greatest 1 1/4 in history in the Hol Gold Cup---and Royal Owl ended up in New York, older and no longer a stakes horse, and he died on the track one cool afternoon, all 1200 lbs of him and his heart.

21 Mar 2010 1:37 PM
Wade

Looking at Lucky is the horse to beat in the derby. I don't see any body beating him.

21 Mar 2010 1:40 PM
Forbidden Apple

Ranagulzion, what are you talking about now? Rule just suffered a beat down and you said he was an easy winner. You are the one with a short term memory malfunction. I tossed Rule completely, just like I tossed Dublin. We all have winners and losers, but you act like Pletcher's horses are completely dominant. The joke is on you. Take a long look at Awesome Act in the Wood and use him on your ticket if you want a return trip to the window for some money.

21 Mar 2010 2:32 PM
Footlick

Vale of York out of the UAE Derby with colic.

21 Mar 2010 3:07 PM
Ranagulzion

RiverCitySmitty,

Don't you worry about the elite Todd Squad stalkers Esky, Rule and Super Saver they are quite capable of dominating the competition in the Derby. Super Saver is going to be vastly improved coming off his Tampa Bay Derby prep and should take the Arkansas Derby hands down.

If you take a good look at the Florida Derby it is quite clear that with a bit more restraint early on none of those closers would have gotten to Rule.  However the colt needed that strong blow-out race to move him up a notch. He's going to be very very tough on closers in the Derby.

Eskendereya is a very special colt, a relentless galloper that can run his competition into the ground and confound all his detractors.  Potentially he is the most complete Triple Crown candidate I've seen since the ill-fated Barbaro.  He doesn't need to win the Wood to earn his way into the Derby field but realistically he doesn't have to run at full trottle to win convincingly either.  Watch for your dream of closers winning the Derby to fade after the Wood Memorial.

As a true fan of this game it was good to see Nick Zito's Ice Box sprout wings in the final sixteenth to peg back Pleasant Prince, saving me some flack from my good friend Coldfacts.  Those two colts are true Derby types in defiance of their grandsire AP Indy's abysmal Derby record.  Ice Box has Mr Prospector in the 3rd generation on top and Belle de Jour (Spend A Buck's dam) as his 3rd dam in the tail female line coupled with Alysheba.  Pleasant Prince also has Mr Prospector in the 3rd generation on top and Never Knock (Go For Gin's dam) as his broodmare sire's dam (also in the 3rd generation) on the bottom.  It is safe to conclude that AP Indy will never sire a Derby winner himself but one of his sons or grandsons could do it from matings with a traditional Derby-winner-producing influence within three generations as shown above.

RiverCitySmitty I hope that I haven't bored you with all the pedigree stuff but it is an important part or reading and forcasting the Derby scene, albeit a little more complex than just spotting closers and wishing for a pace melt-down on the first Saturday in May.  Good luck.

21 Mar 2010 4:12 PM
Coldfacts

Zookeeper,

When Ice Box headed Pleasant Prince Leparoux gave him a crack and asked him for more and he responded to regained the lead. Leparoux then put the stick away and started to hand ride. If you watch the slow motion section of the replay, you can see Leparoux looking across at Lazcano as if to say take that. He thought the race was over after he regained the lead. If he had kept the stick on to the line the colt he would have won. The colt needed a finish like the one Jerry Bailey gave Grindstone where he never took the stick off to the line.

21 Mar 2010 8:48 PM
dcrocks

who think radiohead is a derby contender now lentenor had a horrible trip coming down the stretch he might not get in but he showed something to believe in his first start on dirt. but my list still goes as

1. lookin at lukcy

2. odysseus

3. eskendreya

4. awesome act

5. caracortado

6. schoolyard dreams

7. interactif

8. setsuko

9. super saver

10. conveyance

and if you don't agree with them then so be it we will see may 1st.

21 Mar 2010 9:55 PM
Zookeeper

Coldfacts,

Thank you! I'll watch the replay again. I'm partial to "hand rides" but I realize that in a fight to the finish line, the whip is, sometimes, the deciding factor.

Mr. Haskin,

Your blogs have some very knowledgeable participants. I may not agree with their conclusions but the intelligent debates are a lot of fun and I learn a great deal from them. Thank you for setting the tone to a more rational discussion.

21 Mar 2010 11:51 PM
Ranagulzion

COLDFACTS,

Believe me, I only get better not bitter in these triple crown debates (which I quite enjoy, rumbling with a good sport such as yourself and some others on here).  The problem I have with accepting a diet of humble pie or whatever you prescribe (due to my choice Rule being beaten by one of your suggestions) is that you are playing smart rather than fair by pitting "the field" or some non-commital suggested likely winner(s) against my clear unambiguous winning selection.  If my choice falters you come claiming I told you so.  That may be smart on your part but I'm not stupid.  I'll man-up and eat all the humble / yuckie stuff if the playing field is level bro.

I say Eskendereya wins the Wood.  Tell me who is your pick.  You have until just before the race runs ...I'll be waiting.

FORBIDDEN APPLE,

I see you are playing Smart Alec like Coldfacts.  You tossed Rule like you tossed Dublin but what was your selection ...tell us now that the race is over and see if we believe you. Spin around and try again Pal.  

I happen to fancy Awesome Act to run second in the Wood now that the impressive Eskendereya is showing up there. I look forward to your reactions after that race. Esky doesn't need to win to make it into the Derby and I don't think that he'll blow out at full trottle given that the first Saturday in May is the main objective but he can still win this on an afternoon stroll in my opinion.  I think he is that special.    

22 Mar 2010 12:29 AM
Slew

It seems to me that a pretty decent filly hit the big time after winning the Fair Grounds Oaks last year.  This year we'll be looking at Jody Slew and Quiet Temper........hmmmmmmmmmmm????

22 Mar 2010 6:30 AM
RiverCitySmitty

Slew:  Jody Slew had an injury in her stall and is iffy for Friday`s Oaks race.  She was still entered for the race so her connections are obviously hoping she`ll be okay by then.

Ranag...:  Rule, Super Saver and Esky are not stalkers in my opinion.  Remember Eddington and Rock Hard Ten?  Both were shut out of the derby due to earnings.  Eskendereya is currently 23rd and will be around 27th or so after next weekend.  If he were to get nosed out for 2nd by Jackson Bend in the Wood he`ll watch the KD on TV.  And yes, I`m still expecting a meltdown on derby day.  Hoping my boy Ron the Greek gets something to run at this weekend.  BTW the only Pletcher horse I`d consider @ Louisville is Interactif for what it`s worth.

22 Mar 2010 9:28 AM
Coldfacts

Slew,

A pretty decent filly won on Saturday. If I am not mistaking Devil May Care's final time in the Bonnie Miss was faster than the colts in the FL Derby.  I think it was 1:49.06 to the colts 1:49.19. Unless she does not take to the Churchill Downs track she should win the Kentucky Oaks. I have always felt that Mr. Pletcher is a much better trainer of fillies than colts.

Ranagulzion,

Let’s get some facts clear. I specified that Rule would not out run the late developers at 9F. I then I advised that the late developer to beat was Pleasant Prince. In my post to Steve, I provided some back ground as to why I thought PP had a big shot at winning. The chief reason was his last work of 59.1 handily. This horse is bred to go long and for him to work 59 suggest a lot of class. I must concede I wagered him handily when I saw the 25-1. I did not highlight any other horse in the field so it is a bit unfair to state that I took the field.  I you revisit Zookeeper’s post it will confirm that this fact.

As soon as the field for the Wood is assembled I will give you my choice. I am focused on another colt sired by a son of A.P. Indy. I need to see his works after his last race to make a definitive decision. The A. P Indy sire line is hot right now and I think you should be very mindful of this. The first and second place finishers in the FL Derby were both sired by sons of A. P Indy. The Bonnie Miss winner Devil May Care was sired by a son of A. P. Indy. Is it any surprise that I am focused on an A. P. Indy grandson in the

Wood Memorial?  

You should have major concerns about Eskendereya. The so called impressive victory in the FOY is not looking so good now. The cold facts are below:

FOY               23.72, 47.92, 1:12.41, 1:36.54, 1:48.87

FL Derby        23.21, 46.46, 1:10.76, 1:36.09, 1:49.19

B. Miss           23.68, 47.28, 1:10.76, 1:35.59, 1:49.06

Avg. for  KD   22.85, 46.42, 1:11.04, 1:36.55, 1:49.19

The splits in the FL Derby and Bonnie Miss were more in line with the average split for the last ten Kentucky Derbies. Eskendereya was able to power home because of the early slow fractions. Do not be fooled into believing that his performance was exceptional. Both Ice Box and Pleasant Prince did not have ideal trips. Pleasant Prince had to be switched off the rails and negotiate his way through traffic and angled wide for his stretch run. Ice Box closed from last and had to angle 4 to 5 wide for his stretch run. These colts were chasing a 46, 1:10 fractions. Your colt in the FOY was forwardly place enjoying a snail’s pace for a Gll race.

The filly Devil May Care covered the mile in her race in 1:35 plus and was not keeping a straight course. She would have easily gone below 1:49 without the antics. She appears to be better horse that EsKy.

The fractions he will face in the Wood are going to be brutal and he may get hurt. If he wins in an afternoon stroll as you have suggested, I will immediately stop posting on this blog. In so doing, I will spare both Steve who is too much of a gentleman to tell me that I am crazy and the rest of his supporters the pain they have been enduring with by posts.

22 Mar 2010 10:58 AM
Ranagulzion

COLDFACTS,

Eskendereya won the FOY pulling the proverbial train. He won scampering away with so much in hand and wantig to do more that Johnny V commented after the race on how "the sucker" (referring to Esky) didn't want to be pulled up.  I rest my case here until after the Wood.  Okay bro?

22 Mar 2010 11:49 AM
Zookeeper

Coldfacts,

Don't get too serious on us now! If Eskenderya wins the Wood, you will simply have been wrong. No big deal! It happens to me all the time.

22 Mar 2010 11:50 AM
Forbidden Apple

Ranagulzion,

I have never had Rule on my list of 13 KY Derby contenders, that is a fact. The horse is way overhyped because he is trained by bobblehead. There is no spin, I bet Lentenor to place and he lost, so what. I never claimed that he was an easy winner, I only bet him because I knew Rule would run like a donkey.

25 Mar 2010 1:13 AM

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