April 26, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

 1

Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert

Smart Strike—Private Feeling, by Belong to Me

Likely assumes the favorite’s role after the defection of Eskendereya. He’s been working sharply and he is flourishing physically with great muscle tone. Removal of blinkers will help get him back off what promises to be a rapid pace.

 2

Sidney’s Candy John Sadler

Candy Ride—Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat

Would have preferred to see him go slower early and a bit faster late in his final six-furlong work, and also would have liked to seen him gallop out a bit stronger. But for sheer talent, he is as gifted as anyone in the field.

 3

Stately Victor Mike Maker

Ghostzapper—Collect the Cash, by Dynaformer

Decided to take a chance that he is the real deal at the risk of looking foolish. Seeing him up close, there isn’t a better-looking horse in the race and he was always cut out to be a good one. Just have a feeling last was not a fluke.

 4

Super Saver Todd Pletcher

Maria's Mon—Supercharger, by A.P. Indy

His final work went virtually unnoticed, but it was a strong move, hugging the rail and galloping out strong. His energy level Monday morning was high, and the feeling here is that Calvin Borel will get him to settle off the pace.

 5

Devil May Care Todd Petcher

Malibu Moon—Kelli’s Ransom, by Red Ransom

Based on her latest work, she fits with these colts and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her run a huge race. When a horse works like she did, while under wraps, and gallops out that strong, you have to consider them a legitimate threat.

 6

Awesome Act Jeremy Noseda

Awesome Again—Houdinis Honey, by Mr. Prospector

He’s been galloping in company to simulate cover and moving well. With Eskendereya out of the race, he needs only to run back to his Gotham and Wood Memorial to be right there. But his quick move must be timed right.

 7

Paddy O’Prado Dale Romans

El Prado—Fun House, by Prized

Barn is extremely confident, and rightfully so after his sharp work. Although Stately Victor ran right by him in the Blue Grass, he had set it up for him, and he still has a lot of room for improvement; intriguing longshot.

8

Mission Impazible Todd Pletcher

Unbridled’s Song—La Paz, by Hold Your Peace

Live longshot possibility. Love the way he’s been training, and he is another with tremendous room for improvement. Speed figures say he’s not fast enough, but 3-year-olds do improve dramatically this time of year.

9

Dublin D. Wayne Lukas

Afleet Alex—Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird

I keep going back and forth with him. If he’s ridden properly, dropping well back and making a sustained run from the five-eighths pole, he has a good shot to get in the trifectas and superfectas. Always puts in his run.

10

Ice Box Nick Zito

Pulpit—Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat

Really liked his last work and he should be sharp for the Derby. Six weeks is still a concern; that’s a long layoff going into the Derby, but he has had three 1 1/8-mile races and his style of running could help him overcome that.

11

American Lion Eoin Harty

Tiznow—Storm Tide, by Storm Cat

He is flourishing physically, his coat shining and well dappled. He has an enormous stride and is a free-running colt, so he doesn’t have many options, except to get a good position and grind them down. Better on dirt than synthetic.

12

Noble’s Promise Ken McPeek

Cuvee—The Devil’s Trick, by Clever Trick

Lung infection is something you don’t want to see before the Derby, but I like the way he worked and galloped out, and if he scopes clean, he should run a good race, based on his class, speed, and overall record. He always gives 100%.

12

Jackson Bend Nick Zito

Hear No Evil—Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat

With his nemesis Eskendereya out of the race, he certainly fits with these horses. Like Noble’s Promise, he is gritty and tough and will battle you every step of the way, although distance is a question mark.

To participate, use your cursor to drag the selections on the left to the blank placeholders on the right. Once you have completed ranking all of the horses, submit your entries and compare your results to the rest of the community. A first place ranking will earn 12 points, second place receives 11 points, and so on.

296 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Deat Heat

No Endorsement eh?

26 Apr 2010 12:46 PM
Vic S

Wow, I was a little freaked out when I saw the community rankings were equal to mine then I saw the numbers and found out I was the first to put in my votes lol.  This is my 2nd to last Derby Dozen as I feel post draw and late defections could have a lot to say in the place and show categorys.  Obviously I do not think Stately Victor is going to lose, he looks amazing physically, mentally, and workwise.  My 2nd to last Derby Dozen goes as follows.

1.  Stately Victor

2.  Devil May Care

3.  Lookin at Lucky

4.  Sidney's Candy

5.  Dublin

6.  Paddy O'Prado

7.  Ice Box

8.  Super Saver

9.  Mission Impazible

10. Jackson Bend

11. Conveyance

12. Noble's Promise

My final derby dozen will be done in this thread on the friday (april 30th) before the Derby so I can rank the entire field and not just the dozen, letting me take off late defections, put in new entries, given soon to be developments.  I say it every post I'll say it again, Stately Victor is my Derby horse!

26 Apr 2010 12:50 PM
Bloodline Bob

What happened to INTERACTIF? Didn't he just do a bullet workout and that was what Todd Pletcher was looking for. He is one of my top picks for 5-1-10.

26 Apr 2010 1:02 PM
Bluelou

Love to see Jackson Bend make the field.  Yes, he is probably a notch below half the field but he never gives up.  

26 Apr 2010 1:03 PM
Fran Loszynski

Back to #9 Steve for Dublin? With poor Eskey out he has a better chance of winning. I was always afraid of the 8 length lead that Eskey last had. I would think it's going to be easier for Dublin. People are saying he is plodding a little but Afleet Again plodded Saturday in the Withers and look how he won.  There are times a "plod" can beat a "quick stride". If it is from a "big horse".

My Derby picks are

DUBLIN

BACKTALK

ICE BOX

You have to awe at the fact that Smarty Jones son and Afleet Alex's son are going to race against one another, when their Dads held Philly in awe! Good Luck everyone, thank you Steve for the great updates! No one really loses if it is a safe and exciting race.

GO DUBLIN.

26 Apr 2010 1:04 PM
TJ

If we get rain who are some of the slop horses this year?

26 Apr 2010 1:06 PM
Judy G ~ California

Steve~

I've favored SIDNEY'S CANDY, but, now my eye is on DEVIL MAY CARE! It's a "girl thing"! We have to stick together :-)

26 Apr 2010 1:11 PM
Eskenwho??

Though disappointed we need to remember that before one can win the Derby, he/she has to make it in the gate.  That's the first hurdle.  We're dealing with horses that go through major physical changes in the months leading up to the Derby.  Remember that before I Want Revenge was scratched last year, Quality Road had alreay been eliminated from contention and would have likely been favored.  At race time we'll finally know who makes it in the gate, then, the second race starts...  

26 Apr 2010 1:12 PM
trebloc

Too bad about Rule and Esky.  Nice to see the filly being entered in the Derby and getting 5 lbs., she will make it interesting.  Elliot Walden was seen wearing his Super Saver hat today around Churchill, so I guess we know who he likes the best, out of all the Winstar horses.  

26 Apr 2010 1:14 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Steve

   Don't worry about looking foolish !!!! Who cares. That's what horse racing is all about. We all look foolish the majority of the time. You can look foolish 80% of the time and still make money betting this game. Don't let the fact that you're a public figure deter you from using your instincts and strong observational abilities to pick what YOU think is right. So what if you picked Monba. Fuggitaboutit. What anyone thinks about a pick or two going sour is entirely irrelevant. You have a very strong fan base. What I love is that you still do mention Monba. Do you realize how many writers would have long ago swept Monba under the rug? 98% of them. It is a tribute to your strong character that you still mention it. Stately Victor is not Monba. Hopefully. I like your top 5. This is a wide open race, especially for 3rd and 4th. Lookin At Lucky is the one I'm not leaving out of any bet. Sidney's Candy could be a monster but we don't know yet. From there we all have our favorite longshots and nothing would surprise me except for Homeboykris with that layoff. Devil May Care is for real and is a fighter. Just don't whip her too hard or she might get mad and buck the jockey off.

26 Apr 2010 1:16 PM
KR

Love the column but why was Endorsement left out?

26 Apr 2010 1:28 PM
Slew

With excuses being made every day for why Endorsement has not been working, I have my doubts whether or not he will even run.  May change my top 3, dropping him and going with Stately Victor, Ice Box and LAL.  Of course...if Endorsement finally does work..I may keep him in...but saying he needs a day off after he has had quite a few days off, just reminds me of the reason Esky did not work.

26 Apr 2010 1:37 PM
Joeywoge

ESKY being out means your horse that you were picking to try and beat him just went from 15-1 to 8-1 and so on. So that's a bummer.

I think the pace of the race just took a big hit as Rule is not running as well. Only two confirmed speed horses with "REAL SPEED" are Line of David and Conveyance. Many of the so called speed horses will jockey for position in behind those two. Pace will still be honest but I don't think you are going to see 22, 45.More than likely we are looking at 23 and 46 for the half which is fast, but just for those two that are in front. The stalkers with speed now have a better chance now that Rule is not running. I still feel a horse from off the pace will win. I'm going with Awesome Act!! But I think a horse like Ice Box will have too much to do late. Unless of course Zito and Lapenta sacrifice Jackson Bend to set it up for ICE BOX!! Super Saver will be my exacta horse. Top 5.

1. Awesome Act

2. Super Saver

3. Lookin at Lucky

4. Devil May Care

5. Mission Impazible

If the track comes up sloppy for some reason Mission Impazible moves way up!! Good luck everyone. May the "HORSE" be with you!!

26 Apr 2010 1:48 PM
mg

Steve, Solid list, not sure how you left Endorsement off and included Jackson Bend.

Having been at this for quite a few years I would appreciate your angle on Awesome Act. I greatly admire Noseda but can not see this horse with binoculars. I can agree with the excuse for the last effort but his Gotham was against a very suspect field field on the inner track at Aqueduct and the only other race that warrants consideration was a belated rally in the BC Juvenile Turf turf. His form in Europe at 7/8th against questionable talent was certainly poor at best. Don't mean to be argumentative but wondered what you're seeing that I'm not. Would appreciate any other posters comments in this regard, Best of luck to all,

26 Apr 2010 1:57 PM
mike e

No love for endorsement at all wow

26 Apr 2010 2:08 PM
hoperises

i feel the same way that haskin feels--that blue grass was no fluke and that he will run back to that race--when handicapping this horse, just take 1st two races and forget the rest--onward and upward

26 Apr 2010 2:21 PM
FSF

I personally don't love Interactif, but the frequent reports that owners/trainer think "he prefers grass" seem a little strange to me when he is turning in bullet works on dirt (albeit sloppy today) and hasn't really been allowed to try it competitively yet. Why not go for it? If he hates it, it's not like they miss a huge turf opportunity in the next couple of weeks or throw off future plans for a grass-focused series of Breeder's Cup preps later in the year.

26 Apr 2010 2:26 PM
Destin

How can Devil May care and Stately Victor be above all those very nice horses?! Someone Please Explain this to me.

26 Apr 2010 2:30 PM
trebloc

Just so I understand, Stately Victor is owned by the Attorney General of KY and KY needs slots... Very Very Interesting...

26 Apr 2010 2:42 PM
Robert

Based on pedigree alone, I am rulingout 33% of your Derby Dozen.  Looking at Lucky, Mission Impazible, Nobles Promise, and Jackson Bend. Sydney's Candy is close to being on this list, but I believe he will go father than these other 4.  I agree with you on Stately Victor.  He was just hitting his stride at the 16th pole of the Bluegrass and he kept on rolling right past the finish line.  Icebox is my longshot, and moves way up if the track is anything other than fast on Saturday.  I can't believe I am betting on a Pulpit son to go 1 1/4 miles, but he seems to be the real deal.  Super Saver is not going to sneak by anyone.  Calvin Borel will not be allowed to go off higher than 6-1.  He owns this race the last 3 years.  2 wins and a third will insure that.

26 Apr 2010 2:45 PM
noel v

I very sad because jonhy v has his best chance last year with quality road and this year with eskendereya I hope devil may care wins the derby.

26 Apr 2010 3:04 PM
Trifectabox

Ty, Stately Victor loves off tracks. His work in the mud was phenomenal, and his best race on dirt, a second place finish, was on a "good" track at the Spa. He has Dynaformer blood, can run all day. I see many are liking him now, he is a nice longshot along with Ice Box. Discreetly Mine also trained well over the slop. Line of David definitely does not like it.

I am hearing tons of rumors about Endorsement. I hope they are not true, this is now one of the best horses in the race and Robby Albarado chose to ride him. But the buzz plus Steve leaving him off the list completely has me worried.

My question about Super Saver is, why only two 4 furlong works leading up to Derby? He's training very well, and he was expended in the Ark Derby, but that's worrisome.

26 Apr 2010 3:18 PM
Hardhorseman

Endorsement is my win pick....#1...Steve...you must have him on your list...

26 Apr 2010 3:19 PM
ThoroughbredZone

(1)(1) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat  (Jan) Homebred — Sidney’s Candy will close out the final ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12 of 2010 on top.  Sidney’s Candy has put together two fast works in preparation for this  Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.  The absence Eskendereya has enhanced Sidney’s Candy’s chances of snagging top honors this Saturday, along with every other horse in the Kentucky Derby.  He is a fast horse that has a high cruising speed.  He has won all three of his Kentucky Derby prep races nicely, finishing up strongly each time.  He should be able to relax off a pace that is expected to be a quick one.  Sidney’s Candy has plenty of talent to go along with his speed.  A mile and a quarter is well with in his grasp.  A dry fast track is preferred.

(2)(3) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me  (May) Purchase Price $475,000 — Lookin at Lucky has been doing everything nicely.  The 2-year-old champ will come into the Kentucky Derby sitting on a big race.  Lookin at Lucky will be the probable post-time favorite.  He has a solid foundation and is battle tested.  Bob Baffert knows how to get one ready for the Kentucky Derby.  Horse continues to mature and will sit off the pace and make his usual late rally.  Connections have been here before and have won it before.  He put in another nice work this morning.  He has solid credentials.  The Kentucky Derby will be his third start of the year.  

(3)(4) Endorsement – Distorted Humor – Charmed Gift by A.P. Indy (Feb) $450,000 — Endoresment was the upset winner of the Sunland Derby (GIII) back in March.  Endorsement ran down the speedy and undefeated Conveyance in an impressive effort. Endorsement has been working out at Keeneland in preparation for the Kentucky Derby.  Endorsement is one of three WinStar horses in the race.  He has a running style that should suit him well in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  A solid pace should be on tap.  The two other WinStar horse’s Super Saver and American Lion have running styles that put them on or near the lead.  Super Saver however can rate.  Endorsement is well bred for a mile and a quarter.

(4)(11) Ice Box – Pulpit – Preach by Spice Island  (Mar) $125,000 — The come from last to first winner of the Florida Derby (GI) will be coming in off the layoff for Hall of Fame Trainer Nick Zito in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  Ice Box has been burning it up in the mornings at Churchill Downs and promises to be far back in the early stages of the Kentucky Derby.  Nick Zito must be respected, as this guy knows how to prepare a horse for the big one.  He will try to duplicate that late rally he displayed in the Florida Derby (GI).  He will be passing horses in the stretch late in the Kentucky Derby.  Is he fast enough to pass all of them is the question?  Zito is happy with him.  

(5)(6) Super Saver – Maria’s Mon – Supercharger by A.P. Indy  (Mar) Homebred — Todd Pletcher may have lost his top gun in Eskendereya, but his new top gun is Super Saver in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  Super Saver is coming off a 2nd place finish in the Arkansas Derby (GII) to Line of David.  That race served as a solid prep race for him.  He will be making his 3rd start in his is current form cycle and has been working well in the mornings.  He also sports a win over the Churchill Downs strip.  Another move forward is expected on Saturday.  He is well bred to get mile a quarter.  Todd Pletchers best chance now to win the Kentucky Derby is with Super Saver.

(6)(7) Dublin – Afleet Alex – Classy Mirage by Storm Bird  (Apr) $525,000 — D. Wayne Lukas is back and with a horse that has a shot.  Dublin has gone through all of the Kentucky Derby preps and will target the Kentucky Derby coming in off fast workouts.  Dublin closed well in the Arkansas Derby (GII) but could not get to Line of David.  The come home time in the Arkansas Derby (GII) was not great, but that race served as a solid final prep for Dublin.  Dublin will enter the Kentucky Derby fit and with a solid foundation under him.

(7)(10) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull  (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – The speedster Conveyance promises to go right to the lead and take this group as far as he can go.  Conveyance is the speed of the speed as far as this year’s Kentucky Derby goes.  He should have some company up front, but has the speed to spurt out to a clear lead possibly.  His biggest question will be his ability to go a mile and a quarter under these circumstances—it does not look like he will have an easy lead.  He has been working fast in the mornings and anyway you view this horse, he has speed and that is a huge asset.  He could possibly turn for home with the lead.  Distance limitations will be his biggest obstacle.

(8)(-) Awesome Act – Awesome Again – Houdini’s Money by Mr. Prospector  (Apr) Homebred — Awesome Act is back on the final ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12. Awesome Act ran a well-beaten 3rd in the Wood Memorial (GI) after a shaky start and losing a shoe.  He approached the top of the stretch ready to uncork his big late rally, but it fell flat.  A slow pace also hurt his chances that day.  He should get a much better set up in the Kentucky Derby— that will aid his chances.   There will be many horses going backwards in the stretch at Churchill Downs.  He should not be one of those.  The biggest question is if he is fast enough.

(9)(-) Noble’s Promise – Cuvee – The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick  (Apr) Purchase Price $10,000 —Noble’s Promise had a fast 5 furlong breeze on April 20.  He worked again on Aril 26.  On that note—Noble’s Promise returns to the top 12 this week.  Noble’s Promise has kept solid company all year with the likes of Lookin at Lucky—and nearly missed beating him a couple of times.  He is this year’s Kentucky Derby bargain, only costing $10,000.  Scoped with mucous after the Arkansas Derby (GII) where he did not run his best race.  He did not get out of the gate well and was never a factor that day.  He also got cut up during the race.   He has every right to improve off his Arkansas Derby (GII) effort.  He has class.

(10)(9) Mission Impaziple – Unbridled’s Song – La Paz by Hold Your Peace  (Mar) $200,000 — Mission Impaziple was the upset winner of this year’s Louisiana Derby (GII).  He had his first work over the Churchill Downs strip in the slop on April 24.  The Kentucky Derby will be his 6th career lifetime start.  He is still a lightly raced horse who still has room for further development.  He is still a bit of an interesting Kentucky Derby prospect.  He will need to move forward off his Louisiana Derby (GII) win.  

(11)(-) Stately Victor – Ghostzapper – Collect The Cash by Dynaformer  (May) $110,000 — Stately Victor debuts as the #11 horse on the final Derby 12.  Stately Victor was born on May 1, 2007—so it could be a very happy birthday if he can win the roses.  Stately Victor has done his best running on non-dirt tracks.  He was a huge upset winner in this year’s Bluegrass Stakes (GI) at Keeneland.  Stately Victor should move up on an off track.  He is a son of Ghostzapper and his bottom family indicates a mile and a quarter is well with in his range.  How he will handle a fast dirt track is a bit of a concern.  Stately Victor should go off at pretty big odds and looks to be a horse that will do his best running in the later stages the race.

(12)(-) Paddy  O’Prado – El Prado – Fun House by Prized (Feb) $105,000 — Paddy O’Prado debuts in the #12 spot here.  He ran 2nd to Stately Victor in the Bluegrass Stakes (GI).  Paddy O’Prado is another horse that has run his best races on non-dirt surfaces.  And his best races have come on turf.  Paddy O’Prado should conserve early and should be another who will launch a late rally.  All indications are his chances should imrove on an off track.  He will be one of the bigger priced horses in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  Paddy O’Prado worked a strong 5 furlongs on April 24 in the slop at Churchill Downs.

26 Apr 2010 3:24 PM
TJ

My biggest issue with LAL is he is bad in traffic. Seems to kill it when it's 2 horses but the Derby is 20 horses. What happens if he gets stuck behind a horse or 2?

26 Apr 2010 3:33 PM
Ivan

With the value that Eskendereya has as a stallion, I don't think we will ever see him again running. Just my opinion! About the Derby, it is troublesome to me that Endorsement has not worked at all lately. He was my pick after Eskendereya was scratched, but now I will have to rethink it over again. The horses I am seeing with the best chance now are:

Looking at Lucky - No question taht he is the most solid performer of this group, working lights out at Churchill.

Ice Box - Not worried at all about the six week layoff, as myths are to be broken at any time. Zito knows how to get to the winners circle in the Derby, very dangerous.

Devil May Care - Looked great in winning the Bonnie Miss and it seems she will improve with the added distance. If Pletcher pencils her in here, is becuse he thinks she has a legitimate chance.

Endorsement - Maybe he is the horse with the most upside potential of this bunch, but questions linger about his physical state. He is supposed to have a breeze on Wednesday, will keep on following up.

Mission Impazible - Getting better with every day, has been somewhat of a forgotten horse, but I think he will give a very good account of himself next Saturday.

Should be a great race now that Eskendereya, who I thought had a great chance for a Triple Crown, is out.

26 Apr 2010 3:40 PM
Joeywoge

Let me get this right people. Stately Victor who won the "Blue Grass" stakes is on alot of people's lists. I'm a little confused. Other than Street Sense who we already knew loved Churchill who has even hit the board in the Derby that has won the Blue Grass since they have gone to the poly?? Answer! Nobody.

In his 2 dirt try's he didn't even try to run. Can't understand all the love this guy is getting. Don't you think he would at least have to prove himself once on the dirt?? Maybe we should have two derby's one on the synthetic and one on the dirt.

26 Apr 2010 3:44 PM
WWSTP

I totally agree with Stately Victor being with those on the top rungs.  He looks like a late blooming "real deal".  Hope his odds are good on Derby day.

I love it that Devil May Care is in the mix.  She seems totally capable in facing this group, and running a huge one.  More girl power keeps the streak going and changes the old norm.  Love it!

With Sidney's Candy my "gut" consistently says..."watch out".  He's got a lot of heart and a full tank.

26 Apr 2010 3:48 PM
Barry

FSF, I agree with your comment 100%. Interactif, ran a 1:00 5 fur.

workout and galloped out strong. Looks like he likes the track. Must be more to his not running than we know.

And Steve, your comment on Pletcher's remaining 4 horses.

"Is still a quartet any trainer would "KILL" for". Not true and not one of your better comments.

26 Apr 2010 3:57 PM
derby fan

Mission Impazible has picked up my vote and Looking at Lucky is a class act with the filly Devil 3rd

26 Apr 2010 4:04 PM
Ranagulzion

If I may be permitted to mourn and eulogize a bit about Esky's injury and withdrawal from the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby: This year's renewal has really taken a major hit with Pletcher's super star colt Eskendereya being declared out.  I think that this is a much bigger blow than losing both Quality Road and I Want Revenge combined last year, because none, since the era of Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid and Affirmed vs Alydar has promised so much excitement and quality (please don't suggest one-race-wonder Bellamy Road).  Also there is not another colt as Triple Crown worthy as Esky by virtue of pedigree,physical constitution and performance.  The lingering questions about whether he could successfully stalk a ferrocious pace and handle traffic or whether he was really going to be in the same league of those 1970s Derby immortals were some of the ingredients that contributed to the richness of this years Triple crown trail debates, which have just been knocked out of the race ...so disappointing ...not to mention, blunting the force of the Todd squad Triple Crown juggernaut.  Anyway life goes on.

As things are now, Jackson Bend gets in (the Graded Earnings system still works out pretty good) and perhaps, being 10+ lengths inferior to Esky, he might sing the super star's praises with his usually gutsy performance providing that the last furlong doesn't hurt him significantly.

My top three fancies are Mission Impazible to give hot young jock Rajiv Maragh his first Derby win, Super Saver with "Churchill Down's owner" Calvin Borel threatening to take his 3rd derby in the last four years (that would be quite an accomplishment ...the envy of any hall of famer) and my third choice is of course the filly Devil May Care with Johnny V for the 2nd straight year seeking some Derby consolation. The fourth spot could go to a plucky Jackson Bend, a hard charging Ice Box, a game Looking At Lucky or a fading pace factor Sidney's Candy or unknown quantity Stately Victor.  My assumption here is for a dry track but if there is rain I'll put the filly DMC on top of MI with Ice Box moving up to contend strongly among the top three as well as Discretely Mine to hang around for a piece.  Anything is possible now including an outrageous "drive-by-hitman" job from Rick dutrow's Homeboykris (are you paying attention RiverCitySmitty?).  I didn't mention Awesome Act but he wouldn't surprise me by winning, with Esky out of the race.

I was reconsidering the possibility of a wire to wire act by Line of David but he doesn't seem to be relishing the Churchill downs track.  My thought is that any such performance (wire2wire) could come from Discretely Mine (especially if track is wet).  Good luck to all.

26 Apr 2010 4:13 PM
dustywhipp

My top three are:

1. Mission Impazible

2. Devil May Care

3. Lookin at Lucky

Though I WOULD love to see Devil May Care beat up the boys. :)

26 Apr 2010 4:30 PM
-Keelerman

Hi Steve;

Excellent list. I love reading your articles. Your thoughts on Super Saver and Jackson Bend are right on.

What do you think of the way Dublin has been training? I heard that he was bolting and acting up while galloping the other day. I was just wondering what you thought. He's my pick for the Derby.

I'm glad to see Jackson Bend on your list. I think that he deserves the honor. He tries so hard every time that I can't help but root for him!

-Keelerman

www.triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com

26 Apr 2010 4:34 PM
Billy's Empire

Interactif Owners are pointing him to the turf. That is why he is not running. he probably will go in VA Derby  and the Secretariat in Arlington this summer.

Elliott wearing the super saver hat says a lot. I think he is the best Winstar shot now that Endorsement has put a big ? in the Derby picture.

Dont think the pace will be that fast now. Conveyance is going for the lead, should lead after 2 furlongs. That sets up great for Lucky, Mission, Super, Sidney. Awesome act, Statley, Ice Box comin late

How many more scratches before Setsuko gets in?

26 Apr 2010 4:37 PM
RiverCitySmitty

Joeywoge....Stately Victor has certainly sucked no matter what surface he runs.  He does however have a running style that might be an advantage Saturday.  I wouldn`t discount him.

Has anyone Ice Box beat in the FD even hit the board in their next race?  Plus too much time off for a race like this.  He`s a toss.

26 Apr 2010 4:37 PM
runfortheroses12

I am absolutely thrilled that Jackson Bend has made it to the Derby, because out of everyone on this list, he is probably Top 3 on the horses that really deserve it! I mean, he's never EVER ran worse than second in his life! How can you compete with that! Even if the distance is not ideal, he is such a fighter that I am confident that he will dig in and refuse to be passed in the stretch!

His stablemate Ice Box looks like a legitamate contender also! Go Zito/LaPenta! The yare such nice people, and they really deserve to win!

26 Apr 2010 4:41 PM
Criminal Type

Well, how things have changed in 24 hours, Eskendereya, Rule and Interactif all out of the Derby. That certainly changes the make up of the race quite a bit.

Anyone for a female triple crown winner? I'm not saying it's going to happen, but with the recent success of Rachel And Zenyatta, why not? Stranger things have happened.

Seriously though, with Eskendereya out along with the others, I'm going with Lucky, Awesome Act, the filly and Paddy O'Prado. I also like an all gray tri box, Mission Impazable, Conveyance & Paddy O'Prado

26 Apr 2010 4:42 PM
KyFan

Hey Barry I think it's a great comment. Because, any of us would KILL to have a live one get in the Derby.

Look at the lengths some have gone to just in the last week to try and make it in. We'll see who refuses as they drop out.

26 Apr 2010 4:43 PM
TerriV

Steve, How far off your list is Endorsement?  What about Conveyance?

26 Apr 2010 4:52 PM
Criminal Type

I wouldn't worry to much about Endoresment and his 6 week lay off. Nick Zito is one guy who knows how to get his horse up to win at the right time. How many times has he been the triple crown spoiler at Belmont? We would get all psyched up...this is FINALLY the year we get a triple crown winner and along comes Zito with a horse on the fringes of the TC trail and BAM, he dashes those triple crown dreams.

Also, remember Barbaro won the Kentucky Derby off a 6 week layoff. If im not mistaken, so did Big Brown.

26 Apr 2010 4:54 PM
zarvona

Good Luck, MY Friends...

 I predicted "Sydney's Candy", whom I perceive as the speed of the lot with the stamina breeding to go all the way, and potentially near ‘wire to wire’ with or without "Esky” in the race"!  Thusly, it is hard for me to change my opinion now. "Lookin at Lucky" is however still the consummate classic and as solid as he was at 2!! "Devil May Care", whom many had projected as the "Oak's Favorite", does give TOOD a real live 2nd hope, especially since "Super Saver" has left us wondering all year. The question there is, 'Is this finally gonna be his race, the one that he has been maturing toward since 2?!’ The closers, "Ice Box" has the stamina! and his works suggest he's gained in speed!! Watch out for that one my friends! "Endorsement" is the 'Rolls Royce' --shocked to see him not in anyone's final dozen--(or top 5!!); "Awesome Act" we have never really gotten a true gauge on in my opinion, thusly he could be anything, but we all know that he will be coming late via his training regime!!, and "Stately Victor" has definitely risen in many eyes. I also agree that there are still many sleepers ... "Paddy O'Prado"--gave me some fever early;--"Noble's Promise", upon 100% recovery could actually be there and maybe should not be overlooked; "Dublin", well to me, that's more about DEEEEE WAYNE than the horse!; "American Lion", shows again that "Tiznow" ponies mature late, so the question with him is, 'Is it still early for him? or is he now ready?'... and as to those other speedy little grays, "Conveyance", 'Can he get the distance?', I don't think so, but one never knows, and "Mission Impazible", though apparently working great, I just don't think he measures up to the other talent above. My deepest sleeper is "Dean's Kitten", a horse that appears can get the classic distance, but that has not shown much speed and has surely been overlooked. But if there ever was another "Giacomo", he'd fit right in that perfect mold. And if "Homeboykris" wins the 136th  Kentucky Derby, I promise that I won't ever post another entry on this blog out of shear embarrassment. However, I awoke from a dream that flashed to me, “Lookin at Lucky” followed by “Line of David”, now I wish that I was still in my dream state so that I could see what went on before that flash!!!  

26 Apr 2010 5:07 PM
Householder

I think Devil May Care would have a hard time with Blind Luck at 1 1/8th (the laters best distance).  Now your talking about entering her against Lookin at Lucky?  Look at Blind Luck's Hollywood run.  She was 10-12 in front of Amen.  Sherriffs said he hates to enter fillies and mares against the boys because they take a few good bumps and pushes and they quit.  He did not have that problem with Zenyatta.  She pushed them right back!

26 Apr 2010 5:07 PM
TheMilton

I've posted on this blog for a few months now.... same picks now as then:

1. Sidney's Candy- wet track only helps his chances

2. LONG SHOT  (Devil May Care, Super Saver, Who knows...)

3. DUBLIN (Liked the horse in 3 rd for some time... he's just always plugging along and gets up for a piece.  Agree with Steve on that.)

26 Apr 2010 5:13 PM
redandblacksilks

Every time I look at the running of the Bluegrass I am more certain that something is fishy.  All of the favorites in that race regressed in virtually every area.  Their speed figures dropped significantly.  Then Aikenite runs two weeks later and is his old self.  Add the fact that the race is in Kentucky and the Attorney General of Kentucky is part owner of Stately Victor and things start to smell to high heaven.  Now I know everyone who reads this will say I'm imagining things but I KNOW there is a lot of larceny in horse racing as a past owner of thoroughbreds.  IF STATELY VICTOR WINS THE KY DERBY I WILL NEVER WAGER ANOTHER DOLLAR ON A HORSE RACE!!!

Now that I've gotten that off my chest, I believe that the horse who's sitting on a big race is Awesome Act.  The Derby should set up for his running style.  I will also use Lookin At Lucky, Noble's Promise, Endorsement, and Mission Impazable in tris.  

26 Apr 2010 5:16 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

I'd like to know what is wrong with an also eligible list for The Derby. Your Derby winner Setsuko, if he gets in, is at Churchill begging to get in. What if there is a defection on Derby Day like last year and you're running 19 horses and leaving the winner out? If Setsuko is in he's mowin' them down in the stretch as if they were standing still.

26 Apr 2010 5:20 PM
Final Turn Photography

LAL has the mind, heart and grit to pull this off. My biggest question is Awesome Act. He was expected to bounce in the Wood, threw a shoe,ran wide and fought JL 3/4 of the entire race. The question is for a horse that loves big fields, running late and has the pedigree for this distance...how well does he bounce back?

26 Apr 2010 5:38 PM
Bluelou

Lot of people are writing off Stately Victor for his poor dirt record. I think you have to take a closer look at that history.  His first time on dirt was on the cold November dirt of Churchill.  Didn't like it.  His next time on dirt was off a 3-month layoff.  Relatively fast splits had him tired in a 1 1/8 race.  I think he deserves passes for those 2 races.  Reports are of great workouts on the Churchill track, so I ignore the past history on dirt angle with this one.

But I'm still looking elsewhere.

On another note, I don't think enough attention is being paid to American Lion's first dirt performance: winning the Illinois Derby with a 98 Beyer.  Could be the one that has everyone saying "why didn't I see that before?" after the race.

Ice, Lucky, Lion, Sidney.  For now...

26 Apr 2010 6:02 PM
predict

I'm not believing Line of

David is not liking the track, maybe he just needs a shoe type change. I see him right there at the top of stretch in the Derby with Sidneys Candy about to pass him in the stretch, these two will be out ahead of the others, as Lookin at Lucky continues to be unlucky, Nobels Promise starts, to cough and slow down. While from far back, Ice Box, has already began his big move and mows down Sidneys Candy at the wire. Devil May Care is no Winning Colors, will be lucky to be fourth. The tri bet, Ice box, Sidneys Candy, Line of David, all.

26 Apr 2010 6:11 PM
Lulu Todd

I am still devastated by Eskendereya.  Did anybody watch the tv telecast of the Wood?  Did anybody catch Esky's gallop out around the clubhouse turn?  He took a little misstep and bobbled as johnny v was trying to slow him down, before the pony got to him.  I've watched the replay a hundred times, and it still bothers me.  I wonder if that was the start of the injury, since Todd said he hasn't looked right in his last few gallops. Mr. Haskin, can you check that out?

26 Apr 2010 6:14 PM
gilbert

TJ  Take another look at lucky. Four of his wins came in traffic There was a reason Gomez did a one two on victor after the race at santa anita. The rebel and the BC shows he can mix it up. I think the sa derby might have been one of his better races.Your counting horses in his races is a little off

26 Apr 2010 6:28 PM
Linda in Texas

Bloodline Bob, in Steve's April 19 post, you predicted that from his then list of possible KD winners that the sires DOB would be 1997, and that is Tiz Now. So you are predicting American Lion. Right?

But - -

Devil May Care was not a possible on April 22 the day of your prediction.

Fast forward to Steve's list of today, April 26, now that Devil May Care has been added. You now are in double jeopardy with your prediction as the Sire of Devil May Care is Malibu Moon who was also born in 1997.

So now which will it be??

I am a pedigree person, love what is in the bones and fiber of the present day thoroughbreds. Being 70 i have heard some of these names a long time as my mother loved throughbred racing also.

A thought --

Esky's injury threw everyone off and he has no idea how much we are all talking about him, now i like him more than i did the first time i saw him and the troubles Zayat Stables has had. I tend to meld with the ones who try the hardest and always come up short not getting to play all their cards thru no fault of their own. I pray it is not a trend and hope Eskendereya mends quickly and is back 100 percent soon.  

26 Apr 2010 7:05 PM
mickey101

I'am smelling (rats), all over the place...if endorsment or noble's promise , run's down the track, head's should roll, trainer's and owner's, it took a week for pletcher to come clean with esky, just when I thought he was in a class , by himself....he throw's the filly into the mix,(it is my own opinion,that she should not run against the boy's), then pletcher tell's us ...if Interactif run's light's out ...he would enter him into the derby...well fastest of 45 is pretty much (light's out), this whole thing is starting to be a joke....like Idiot's we gamble, are money.....not knowing who or what is the truth.

26 Apr 2010 7:07 PM
mickey101

then they wonder why ....the horse racing Industry,is becoming a thing of the past,down goe's the ship.

26 Apr 2010 7:11 PM
Rachelfan

I'm so glad to see Devil May Care is running. She is a truly talented filly.

My three:

Devil May Care

Lookin At Lucky

Awesome Act

I also like Stately Victor but I have to go with the first three.

26 Apr 2010 7:25 PM
mickey101

I would truly like to know, what percentage of horse's entered are not a 100% sound, think about it pletcher has a horse go down, he has a slew of back up's aikenite...interactif etc,ms ritter has a horse go down (it's party over time).

26 Apr 2010 7:25 PM
Ray

My Top 5 is

- Sydney's Candy

- Devil May Care

- Lookin at Lucky

- Super Saver

- Paddy O'Prado

I love all the 5 horses in my top but I'd love to see DMC winning the Derby. I always root for the girls against the boys, and I believe she can win. Let's wait and see what happens.

26 Apr 2010 7:44 PM
Mary

I know he has the "wrong" running style but I like Baffert's other horse, Conveyance.  

I have to bet Paddy O'Prado and Dublin because my grandparents came here from Ireland.  I'd never forgive myself if one of them won and I didn't have money on him.  

26 Apr 2010 7:48 PM
Gene

I think Nobles Promise is ready for a big effort.  Throw out the Arkansas Derby.  If he gets a good ride he'll be right there at the finish.  Ice Box and Looking at Lucky will fight it out for second.

26 Apr 2010 7:49 PM
Carson

Line of David beat three of your top 12 last race.  All had a chance to win and didn't.  

26 Apr 2010 7:54 PM
Red Ransom 423

Steve - I agree with you regarding Stately Victor and believe you are "on point" with your assessment.  Question: Do you know how workout times compare, the CDT track and actual Churchill.  I know the CDT is a 6F oval, wondering if there are any rules of thumb to those knowing, especially with gallop outs  (because of the turns).  Also, wondering how you;d describe the blinkers Devil May Care was furnished with for her last work (slight/mild?) Thanks again for all of your work!

26 Apr 2010 8:29 PM
marktoothaker

Mg

Had a chance to watch Awesome Act today gallop and see him cool out and he looks great. He is in a good friend of mines barn and he is high as a kite on him as well. Their feeling is he bounced big time in Wood after a solid effort in the Gotham but he now is ready for a huge effort for what that is worth.

26 Apr 2010 8:33 PM
marktoothaker

Mg

Had a chance to watch Awesome Act gallop today and he looks great. He is in a friend of mines barn at CD and he is high as a kite on the colt. The feeling is he bounced off his effort in the Gotham when he ran 3rd in Wood for what thats worth

26 Apr 2010 8:37 PM
Aikenite

The filly will be ridiculously overbet IMHO.  Watch the Bonnie Miss and see what an absolute dream trip she got.  Some people made a lot of her speed fig being slightly higher than Ice Box, but the colt had to circle a mile wide against a bigger field.  

26 Apr 2010 8:54 PM
Bloodline Bob

OK-the 1997 sire horses as of today(4-26-10) are:  American Lion; Interactif; Devil May Care; Make Music For Me.

26 Apr 2010 9:10 PM
runyon

I'll admit right off, that I haven't seen many of these run.  But, the ones I have seen are certainly genuine and will be very live  regardless of the competition.

1)  Looking at Lucky.  Has had very poor and troubled trips in his last few starts.  Still, made respectable finishes.  Needs new jockey?

2)  Sidney's Candy.  Looks to be coming into the race the best.  Don't feel he has really been tested.

3)  Setsuko.  This is my long long shot.  Making the race may be his toughest obstacle.  This horse has been closing like a shot at shorter distances.  Derby distance seems ideal.  His efforts have already been validated by the competition and company he has been keeping.  In fact, Alphie's Bet who was well beaten in same race came back to score easily.  And you will probably see that one in the Belmont.

26 Apr 2010 9:20 PM
dd

we had ice boxes mon and she loved 1 1/2 and always took 6-7 weeks rest  they just run to hard the last quarter.  He was my horse for the fl derby (smile)  loved him and the price and he will be there for the derby,  

26 Apr 2010 9:21 PM
Derin

I am shocked at the lack of respect Noble's Promise gets! Lucky is the favorite and Noble's Promise lost to him in the Rebel by a nose?? Noble's Promise went off as the favorite at post time in the Arkansas Derby and had the worse luck possible.  His works at Churchill this week are good and he scoped clean today.  I think he should be #3 behind LAL and Sidney's Candy.

26 Apr 2010 9:32 PM
Venceremos

You should throw everybody a curve ball and have Homeboykris occupy every spot in your dozen.  

26 Apr 2010 9:40 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Zookeeper

   I've decided to go light with The Derby this year and put more into The Preakness and Belmont where the better horses can get in. (unless by some miracle Setsuko gets in The Derby, then I will bet the farm). Did you see Beyer's article-"First Casualty of the Derby-Judgement?" To me it's a disgrace that Homeboykris is in the Derby and Setsuko isn't. The Derby is starting to lose it's appeal for me, but there's too many great races around the country every week of the year to worry about it. Next year will be different. I'll pick up the final PPs and that will be the extent of my Derby preparation. I think I'll stick to my guns this time.

26 Apr 2010 9:41 PM
Ravenswood Matt

The "Derby god" factor seems to be: Everyone begins focusing on Pletcher's attempt to win the Derby with his filly after his main stud has to be taken out, and, in the end, the feminine theme arrives in the form of the first female trainer to ever win the Derby. You are making way too much of the postponement of Endorsement's work in excluding him from your list. Fine with me: maybe I will be able to grab 20-1 on the only remaining horse to fire a 100+ Beyer on conventional dirt during their 3 year old campaign.

26 Apr 2010 9:45 PM
SlewStable

Sid;s  Candy  will  pass  the  pace-setters  on  the  turn  and  enter  the  stretch  with  a  burst  that  puts  him  2 1/2  in  front. Can  he  continue  from  there  or  will  another  catch  him ? I  say  he  goes  on  and  Talamo  drapes  the  roses  on  this  quality  race  horse.  Sadler  continues  the  streak  of  first-time  Derby  winners.

26 Apr 2010 9:51 PM
John T

 Eskenderya was a very convincing

winner of his last two races so it,s sad what has happened.

Hopefully he will be able to race again.Lookin At Lucky had bad racing luck last time and you can bet Baffert and Gomez will have that sorted out for the Derby and the horse is working well.My second

pick is Awesome Act who lost a shoe

ln his last race so it,s best to judge him on his Gotham win.

26 Apr 2010 9:56 PM
Paula Higgins

Lookin at Lucky

Sidney's Candy

Devil May Care, if she runs, is really interesting to me.

Ice Box

I also worry if LAL has traffic that may be a problem. He definitely doesn't like it, and he is going to get it in this field, like it or not.

Would love to see the filly do well. Boy would girls/women rule the tracks if that should happen!

I think the return of Rachel Alexandra is going to be as big as the Derby itself. Can't wait. Hope she does really well.

26 Apr 2010 10:10 PM
dennydecork

Endorsement is the only freak in this race will run like one.  LAL gets a piece simply because he will still be running.  Third is likely a closer, perhaps Ice Box or Dublin.  Awesome Act wild card.

Sidney's Candy and Super Saver below top 7.    

26 Apr 2010 11:27 PM
Beach Towel

Very Interesting reading everyones picks, here are mine:

Here is my Superfecta bet:

Winner   Sidneys Candy

Place    Looking at Lucky

Show     Mission Impazible

4th      Setsuko or Icebox

26 Apr 2010 11:32 PM
Jodie

I am still high on Lookin at Lucky but am going with the Filly as I think she will surprise. It would put some excitement back in the  Triple Crown races if she won the first Derby for Pletcher and Johnny V.

26 Apr 2010 11:51 PM
Raven

Steve, why you not put Endorsement in your derby list?

My derby list :

1. Sidney's Candy;

2. Endorsement;

3. Super Saver;

4. Lookin at Lucky;

5. Stately Victor;

6. Awesome Act;

7. Dublin;

9. Devil May Care;

10. Ice Box;

11. Mission Impazible;

12. Noble Promise;

13. HomebOykris;

14. Rule;

15. Conveyance;

16. Paddy O'Prado;

17. Jackson Bend;

18. Dean's Kitten;

19. Line of David;

20. Discreety Mine.

26 Apr 2010 11:55 PM
Raven

I forget American Lion Steve, he will be rangking 18

26 Apr 2010 11:57 PM
smittya

endorsement ran down conveyance in the sunland derby. he looked like he could run another 8th easily. that race was just 1/5 of a second  off the track record. both horses ran a great race.either one can win the derby. so, like last year the derby winner will have come from the sunland derby.

27 Apr 2010 12:01 AM
Geronimo2123

Steve,

Good job on the list.

Given that the purpose of Sidney's Candy's 6f work was to track and overtake his workmate between the 3/8 and the quarter mile pole, I think his 6f work was brilliant.

Why is Lookin at Lucky given a pass for galloping out in 14.4 seconds after going 5 in 1:00-4/5 (6f in 1:15-1/5)? Talamo said he intentionally did not gallop out to strongly due to the track condition. SC works much faster in 6, gallops out in 14.6 seconds to 7, and he should have galloped out stronger? Why? LAL was under the same instruction and produced almost the same gallop out.

Seeing that SC has stronger late pace figures from the second call to the finish at 9f than SC, I think a stronger gallop out would have been ridiculous and would have left the colt's race on the track. He is shifting to dirt where his running style requires more speed early on to get him into place going into the second turn just off the leaders.

Also, you are aware the Churchill clockers changed SC's time to 4 from 46 flat to 46.80, right?

Baffert, in typical style, said Sidney's Candy is the horse to beat and should be the favorite since he beat LAL. Baffert does not like being favorite. But, in reality, SC will go off 3rd or 4th choice--behind LAL, Awesome Act and the filly, and just ahead of Super Saver and Dublin and NP.

The trainer were looking for different things from their charges, and both SC and LAL delivered. And, btw, Desert Party worked lights out last year and galloped out super strong.

How far did that get him in the Derby? 14th?

27 Apr 2010 12:34 AM
Coldfacts

JerseyBoy,

You have raised a valid point. Let me see how best I can respond to your request. Raise A Native sired four sons that have dominated the Triple Crown races either as performers, sires, grandsires or grate grandsires. They are Mr. Prospector, Alydar, Exclusive Native and to a lesser extent Majestic Prince.  Together they have sires the winners of 41 Triple Crown Races. If Raise A Native is included the number increases to 43. In the decade between 2000 and 2009 horses directly linked to Raise A Native via his sons, grandsons And great grandsons won 7 of the ten Kentucky Derbies. The only other sire line that exerted that kind of dominance was the Nasrullah sires line via he and his son Bold Ruler. Between decade 1970 and 1979 that sire line accounted for 7 of the derby winners. The dominance of that sire declined thereafter and has only produced two derby winners in the last 30 years. The Raise A Native sire line has duplicated the record of the Nasrullah sire line with its 7 derby winner in 10 years. Based on that factor I am expecting the RAN sire to commence a decline in 2010. There is a pattern associated with the RAN sire line that has convinced me that it will not produce the winner of 2010 KD. The 1980, 1990 and 2000 Kentucky Derbies were won by horses from the RAN sire line. Those years represented the start of a decade. What is interesting is the fact that the winners of Kentucky Derbies that closed the decades i.e., 1979, 1989 and 1999 were not for the RAN sires line. So a pattern that has emerged that is clear. Each time the RAN sire line wins the Derby that opens a decade; the winners that close the previous decade are always from other sire line. The RAN sire line in all its dominance has never had a winner the close a decade followed by one that win the derby that opens a decade.

Well, Mine That Bird from the RAN sire line won the closing derby for the last decade. His victory represented the first time RAN sire line has won the last derby of the decade. The RAN sire line has never won the KD that has closed and opens a decade. Consequently, I do not expect any horse from the RAN sire line to win the Derby that open the new decade. All this must appear crazy to you but the fact are the facts.

NB: Of 25 major derby preps, horses from the Rise A Native sire line have won 8 and the remaining 17 have been won by horses from other sire lines. If the results from these major preps are used as a guide, the other sire line has dominated the major derby preps and validates my conclusion that the RAN sire will not produce the 2010 derby winner. The Bold Ruler line via A.P. Indy has had only two winner in the last 30 years and is well overdue. Devil may care and Ice Box are from this line one will win.

“How do define "Raise a Native sire line"? Do you regard Street Sense, a Derby winner, as a product of the Raise a Native sire line?.What about Funny Cide?”

I regard both horses as linked to the Raise A Native sire line. Street Sense was sired by Street Cry a son of Machiavellian who was sired by Mr. Prospector. Mr. Prospector was sired by Raise A Native. Funny Cide was sired by Distorted Humor a son of Forty Niner who was sired by Mr. Prospector.

“Whatever you do you cannot change the fact that all a horse has to do to win a race, any race, is finish ahead of the field. Their mothers, fathers and grand parents won't help them or hinder them if they have the talent.”

I could not agree with you more. However, the Kentucky Derby is not a race it’s an event. No horse sired by Storm Cat & his 100 plus sons at stud have ever won the derby. No horse sired by A. P Indy & his 54 plus sons at stud have ever won the derby. Bothe Storm cat and A.P. Indy have been bred to some of the best mare to have graced the track. No champion mare has produced a derby winner. How many winners of the Kentucky Oaks have produced a derby winner? I know of none. Could my pattern analysis be rubbish? Certainly! I am already regarded as crazy and if horses from the RAN sire line wins i.e., Looking At lucky, Sidney’s Candy or Mission Impazible I will be seen as a fool. I do not expect that to happen as I am confident that none will win in spite of their talents.

27 Apr 2010 12:51 AM
moodygirl

After reading all the posts here and the 61 posts at "That Crazy Derby", I am just confused. I had hoped I would find some nugget of knowledge that would help me pick a winner. Everyone has an opinion if you know what I mean.

I thought about following in the steps of CRIMINAL TYPE who said he was picking all gray horses, but I really didn't like those horses. If I go with the press favorites I usually lose.

This year I am picking horses for completely subjective reasons, not based on times or races run or favorites.

On another blog some folks were amused at Steve's comments about the horse's physical appearance. Actually I think that is an important piece of information that should not be scoffed at. I would certainly be checking that out if I had access to these horses. I think of it as insider information. So here goes:

SUPER SAVER   I choose him because I am picking Calvin Borel as the winner. I just love this guy. Todd Pletcher is due for a win, so God may shine upon this horse. The fact Super Saver is not the favorite is also in his favor.

STATELY VICTOR  I would like to see a son of Ghostzapper do well. Steve's description "not a better horse in the race" greatly influenced me and I almost put him to win but the Calvin-Pletcher combo trumps this.

AMERICAN LION   Again I went with the physical description: "shining and well dappled...free running, with an enormous stride."

LOOKIN AT LUCKY  I wanted to include him because he has "great muscle and is flourishing physically. He is also having good work outs but that doesn't count this year. Baffert is lucky too so he might just win but I CANNOT pick him because he is the favorite. That has not been lucky for me in the past.

We'll see if my new method works this year. Afterall, anything can happen in a horse race.

27 Apr 2010 1:32 AM
eeebayou

I really think that one of the WinStar horses are going to take down the Derby. My preference is American Lion, Super Saver and Mission Impazible. The filly is a complete toss and I hope that she takes tons of action.

27 Apr 2010 1:58 AM
Slew

Weird things...during the post parade for the Blue Grass. I picked my 3 favorites as usual.(They looked sooo good in the walk to the gate).  I had First Dude, Stately Vicor, and Interactif.  Then I heard SV was owned by a politician, and leaned toward dropping him.  Just goes to show...always go with your gut.  You just may intuitively know more about a horse then the stats and handicappers will ever see.  ( I usually end up picking 3, and 2 of those 3 usually  finish in the money...I'm just never sure which one of the 3 won't...and once in a great while, I hit all 3).  The problem is, I don't pick well until the post parade...until then...it's a big guessing game.

27 Apr 2010 6:05 AM
Bill C

If Lookin At Lucky gets a clean run without getting in trouble I think he is a solid choice however I can't see that and from what I have seen I think Sidneys Candy is the one to beat. I think you are making a mistake Steve by leaving Endorsement off your list and Dublin you finally have were he belongs. My sentimental choice is Conveyance but I think everyone is right he can't make the distance I hope everyone is wrong and he takes it all the way.

1. Sidney's Candy (If he runs like last time he will win)

2. Endorsement (If he's sound)

3. Lookin At Lucky ( If he stays out of trouble)

4. Stately Victor (Could run them all down)

5. Ice Box

27 Apr 2010 6:51 AM
Rachel

no Endorsement...?

27 Apr 2010 7:22 AM
Marilyn

I would LOVE to see Devil May Care win, even though I don't think she will.  Us girls have to stick together, so I pick Sidney's Candy, and maybe the filly will come in 2nd or 3rd.

27 Apr 2010 8:34 AM
Billy's Empire

Statley Victor is owned by Tom Conway, a lawyer. His son, Jack Conway, is the attorney general, running for a senate seat. I am willing to bet the only reason that Jack "owns"  the colt now is b/c it is an election year.

Tom used to race a horse named Unbridled Express, who was third behind Scat Daddy and Circular Quay in the Hopeful 3 years ago. That was a nice colt until the trainer ruined him....

I will be rooting for Tom. He is a great owner and loves the game. He names some of his horses after his family or close friends, and Statley is named after Jack's best friend who died when he was 23.

27 Apr 2010 8:52 AM
Slew

Coldfacts: You noted the past 43 years no Derby winner sired a Derby winner and missed Seattle Slew sired Swale, he was also broodmare grandsire to Funnycide.  Alydar (2nd in all legs of the TC) sired at least 2 Derby winners.  Too many facts.  Plus many horses good enough to win the Derby just didn't by fortune's stroke...Point Given, Afleet Alex, etc etc.  I believe that sometimes, you need to skip the lineage, and just look at the horses for who they are....not who's daddy won the Derby.

27 Apr 2010 9:01 AM
Speedball

Coldfacts-I respect your detailed analysis of Derby winners and pedigrees, but get ready for those Ghostzapper-Dynaformer genes of Stately Victor to hit the board because they're coming full force Saturday afternoon about 6-630pm with a vengeance!!

27 Apr 2010 9:25 AM
KR

Awesome Act takes control in the lane!

1) Awesome Act

2) Lookin at Lucky

3) Mission Impazible

4) Stately Victor

27 Apr 2010 9:40 AM
JerseyBoy

Coldfacts:

Oh boy!. I read your analysis. I like a colt that is inbred to Raise A Native. I chose him simply because I think he is the best horse. He just needs an inside draw.

If he wins it will be party time. I backed him on all 3 Future pools and 35-1 never looked better. But if your analysis is right he has a double whammy. However, the  colt is also inbred to Buckpasser. Maybe Buckpasser cancels the Raise A Native whammy.

The horse is Super Saver.

My view on pedigree is that all horses are well-bred. Some just have more speed or stamina than others. It is nearly impossible to find a top class horse in America that does not trace back to Raise A Native,Nearco,Hail To Reason or Ribot.

27 Apr 2010 9:42 AM
Bloodline Bob

Linda from TX., I'll be making my final pick after the post position draw. I'm staying with my 1997 sire. I was going real strong until Zayat pulled Eskendreya. My e-mail is vinniega11 at yahoo dot com. NTMU.

27 Apr 2010 9:58 AM
datflippinrabbit

Steve what's up with that Endorsement from 5 to vanish in a week.

27 Apr 2010 10:12 AM
Destin

Someone please explain to me the hoopla surrounding Devil May Care? To me she impresses me against the fillies, but against the boys?! Are they dreaming?! I would like to see her run well but just look at the "Great Fillies" that have entered the Derby and not won, and to me she is just a Nice Filly, nothing spectacular. Toss

27 Apr 2010 10:55 AM
Aikenite

The horses I like are listed in order, but obviously the actual odds will influence my final plays...

1) Endorsement-triple digit fig and huge improvement in last race.

2) Ice Box - Working well, right style/pedigree....Zito knows the way.

3) Lookin at Lucky- Hard to keep off the board, will be underlaid win price.  Use underneath.

4) Stately Victor - Only use if 25-1 or better.  

5) Mission Impazible - Only at 25-1 or better.  

6) American Lion - Dirt horse should work out a pressing trip.

27 Apr 2010 11:04 AM
LK

some are getting a little too carried away with devil day care - who is not even the consensus top filly and would be second choice at best in the oaks. i don't care how good her works have been you telling me she is a top 5 derby horse? is this 3YO class that bad? i doubt she could even handle the god awful class of '09 that rachelalexandra had her way with. and for all the talk about what a great horse rachel is bottom line they were scared to run her in the derby last year.

27 Apr 2010 11:10 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Coldfacts

  Is there a pattern for winners from the dam's side? I expect a change on the sire's side. A new lineage to start dominance. I think you said that too but I'm not sure. Huh? The funny thing about all of the pedigrees is how similar they are. I tried to come up with a theory on the bottom, but found out they were ALL connected to Man O' War somehwere on the bottom. Nothing is 100% when it comes to pedigree but I do tend to give extra points or extra credit for some top peds. Musket Man last year-His proven class outweighed his pedigree. Class will often outweigh pedigree if they have already proven that they can run a route with a closing style. I'm always looking for the Top Two spots, and often the top 4 spots rather than just the win spot so you'll find all kinds of patterns that way. For just the win it is easier to see patterns. Anyway-Could you please comment on your view of the pedigrees for the dam side for past Derby winners.

27 Apr 2010 11:27 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

JerseyBoy

   You always make a lot of sense. Horse sense. Super Saver has been in my top ten for a long time and I think he has a shot for the win, especially since Borel is on him. Don't forget to box him or use him underneath since you already have him for the win. I don't know why I'm telling you. Obviously you know what you're doing. I have no doubt that you make money at the track.

27 Apr 2010 11:33 AM
Footlick

Buckpasser is one of my favorites of all time, and one of the great broodmare sires of al time.  But people rarely inbreed to him because he passed along bad legs, and did it enough times that they considered it risky.  He does impart stamina to his offspring though.  I hope that Super Saver gets that and not leg issues from his Buckpasser inbreeding.  He has him 3 times in his pedigree, but not really close up.  Numbered Account, Lassie Dear and Uncommitted.  Uncommitted was unraced, for whatever reason.  Numbered Account's leg issues were widely known.  Lassie Dear seemed sound as she started 26 times I believe.

27 Apr 2010 12:06 PM
dennydecork

Why could Super Saver not catch a donkey like Line of David?  And nothing about his last 3 suggests improvement.  Auto-toss.

27 Apr 2010 12:39 PM
It Aint Easy being good

Everyone should have a top 7 list right now. Once the derby draw is out you can probably eliminate 2 horses that will leave you with 5. Dont bet horses in spot 1, 17,18,19 or 20 they have no chance at all! If LAL lands one of those spots....TOSS! Yes big brown did it but there are no big brown's this year!

27 Apr 2010 1:12 PM
Billy's Empire

no work for endorsement today?????? what up with that Steve?

27 Apr 2010 1:28 PM
Gladiator

I am going with the horse nobody is talking about because, nobody is talking about him. And that is Dean's Kitten in a romp!

27 Apr 2010 1:47 PM
trebloc

Lots of Super Saver caps being worn on the backside.....

27 Apr 2010 2:26 PM
JerseyBoy

Dr Drunkinbum:

I have as simple formula for the Ky Derby. I eliminate every horse with a draw above 9. If the horse I like does not draw 1-9, I watch the race while having a beer. No bet.

I would never be able to forgive myself if I bet on a horse drawn wide and he does not finish in the first 3. I am basically a place and show guy, except for the odd exacta and the Future bets. My best bet this month, for instance, was Musketier to place last Friday at Keeneland. He won but I could not believe the place payout.

27 Apr 2010 2:30 PM
Fran Loszynski

To ease Keelerman's mind about Dublin bobbled and spooked I think that was when the Louisville runners went by and caused a little stir; he caught sight of that and got scared.  That's why I'm always saying he should be without sunglasses but maybe not!

27 Apr 2010 2:51 PM
Forbidden Apple

1-AWESOME ACT 2-SIDNEYS CANDY

3-LOOKIN AT LUCKY 4-ENDORSEMENT

5-CONVEYANCE 6-Ice Box

7-Stately Victor 8-Devil May Care

MG and Final Turn,

Awesome Act is ready to bounce back into the winner's circle! His latest workout was brilliant and he is bred for dirt and the distance. He was my #1 pick even if Eskendereya showed up in the KY Derby. Julian Leparoux is a patient rider and will wait on this horse until the right moment. I just hope he is not to far back from the pace of Conveyance. I am most fearful of Sidneys Candy taking over at the top of the stretch and never looking back. I also think Conveyance is far better than most people think, he can go a long way up front if given an easy lead.

Looking At Lucky always finds trouble and that is going to be a major problem in a 20 horse field. Like Bob Marley said, to much trouble in the world. The S.A. Derby was a clear cut romp by Sidneys Candy, with or without trouble, Lookin At Lucky was never going to win.

I had Endorsement as my #2 pick, is he sound, injured, or just sleeeping this week?

Ranagulzion,

When are you going to give a look towards a horse not trained by Pletcher? Eskendereya, Rule, and Interactif are now out, open your eyes. Are you still predicting Pletcher to sweep the top 3 spots?

27 Apr 2010 3:13 PM
marktoothaker

Steve,

If it comes up sloppy on Derby Day Julien Leparoux says bring it on. He loved the way Awesome Act went today. Had a chance to catch up with him today check it out on

thederbydream.com

27 Apr 2010 3:17 PM
Billy's Empire

hey denny, Super Saver only raced twice this year. this is his third start off of a layoff. He will be there at the end..

So Endorsement works tomorrow huh? and what would shannon do if it rained every friggin day? Scratch the horse? Not breeze him? Go to keeneland? Bad call on Endorsement

27 Apr 2010 3:26 PM
Zenyatta Rules

I think Gomez has learned by now that Lookin' at Lucky is a great horse that just needs some room. If they get lucky with the draw, I am thinking they will take somewhere around 10 to 12 and stay 3 wide all the way around.

27 Apr 2010 4:20 PM
dennydecork

Shannon Ritter never trains horses over wet tracks.  Endorsement is fine.  Largest margin of victory in final prep.  Best pedigree in the race.  Improving steadily.  Wins drawing away.

27 Apr 2010 4:29 PM
Dave

I suppose we will have to find out the hard way if "Lucky" was unlucky his last race. As for Noble`s Promise. I thnk he is a tired race horse. Been in some tough ones. Now with the Lung Infection to go along with it. I put "lucky" on top with an I`m not so sure feeling. Awesome Act appears strong and needs a halfway decent post to close from. Ditto with Super Saver.

27 Apr 2010 4:36 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

It's getting tougher rather than easier. Conveyance looked REALLY GOOD in his workout Tues on video. Anyone see him live? How much is a 12 horse superfecta box? I'm glad Steve explained the Endorsement bureaucratic snafu today. That was a puzzle.

27 Apr 2010 5:00 PM
Zookeeper

Dr Drunkinbum,

In an earllier post, you gave the impression that you were going to be conservative with your bets on Saturday and keep a lot in reserve for the Preakness and/or the Belmont... Now, you're talking about a 12 horse superfecta box? See? That's what the Derby does to us!!! Owners & trainers aren't the only ones suffering from Derby Fever! lol!

Mr. Haskin,

Your article today was a beauty! Now that you have uncovered the racing gods' plan, they will do an about face and bestow their blessings on somebody else. The question is: WHO???

27 Apr 2010 5:24 PM
Ranagulzion

Forbidden Apple,

1)Mission Impazible 2)Super Saver 3) Devil May Care

I think that Discretely Mine will surprise especially if the going is sloppy.  Sorry buddy.

27 Apr 2010 5:35 PM
trebloc

Jersey Boy,

Only one beer?  I plan on knocking back a few and having a nice cigar after Super Saver wins!

27 Apr 2010 6:03 PM
ED

PADDY O' PRADO is the bomb. With that explosive move around the far turn in the Blue Grass timed well, say final quarter mile of the CD straight, he's the winner. Super Saver, Looking at Lucky and Awesome Act follows him home.

27 Apr 2010 7:22 PM
Zookeeper

Dr Drunkinbum,

Setsuko drew post 1 in Race 10 at Churchill Downs on Friday. It's the American Turf Grade II, 1 1/6 miles on turf (of course). Make Music for Me is also entered in that race and drew post 10. That supports your feeling that they would go for the Belmont instead of the Preakness. What do you think? Interesting isn't it?

27 Apr 2010 7:40 PM
El Kabong

Trebloc, Jersey Boy,

With Esky out, it's not time to tout SS. I have my cigar and copious supply of growlers from my local micro and I plan on telling everyone that this is the year of the Y chrome, or perhaps Lucky's revenge. Sounds good and cheesy. Hush. No one was listening before, and everyone wants to flush Pletcher. Let'em. We're going to need their help and we don't need SS becoming the wise guy.Gotta  few fat Fuente's in my humidor waiting for post time. Good luck to you both. Denny 's a mush, so never no mind. Sidney is our biggest worry, but we got Calvin.

27 Apr 2010 9:02 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Zookeeper

  Setsuko is running in the Belmont. That's inside information from inside my brain. Was just kidding about the 12 horse super, but I do like 7 or 8 horses. That's a reasonable exacta, and might narrow down the top spot for a tri wheel. Will have to take some kind of stab at the supers.

27 Apr 2010 9:05 PM
El Kabong

Steve,

The devil may not care but I do. Great article. I hope your dead wrong but it was making all kinds of sense, unlike all these months of handicapping. Enjoy the rest of the week in Louisville and thanks for unrivaled fun leading up to the race.

27 Apr 2010 9:28 PM
Zookeeper

Dr Drunkinbum,

Your 12 horse superfecta is starting to sound good at this point. I'm now so confused that I long for the good old days were my bets would be: LuckyLionSidneyConveysDavid. Hey! How about an all Cali exacta/trifecta box? Maybe that's where the racing gods are planning their next landing.  :)

27 Apr 2010 10:26 PM
Bloodline Bob

Steve, I would also like to take this time and thank you and Blood-Horse.com for letting all of us "Kentucky Derby Junkies" vent our anxiety out for the last 4 months. I know for me it has helped me enjoy the Ky.Derby even more than I already have. RBA.

27 Apr 2010 10:55 PM
kevin

american lion and d-flow

27 Apr 2010 11:13 PM
Maggie

Aside from Lucky, I like a colt that is moving forward, is known to like the dirt, and has performed well at the 1 1/8 mile distance.  That tells me Super Saver, Line of David, Lion Heart, Ice Box, Endorsement, and Awesome Act are in the running for me.  Every year, I look for colts who have run an exceptional mile and an eighth by Derby time.  Are there any statistic hounds that have numbers to back up this angle?  Year after year I see horses flop at the mile and a quarter distance, after never showing they could even keep up at the 1 1/8 mile race.  Please give some feedback!  Thanks!

28 Apr 2010 12:57 AM
Coldfacts

Doc,

The only pattern on the dam side for the derby is Northern Dancer. Between 1991 and 2009 Northern Dancer’s sons and grandsons have been broodmare sires of the winners of 18 Triple Crown races. Five of these TC races were the Kentucky Derby, ten the Belmont and three the Preakness. In total ten different broodmare sires linked to Northern Dancer are associated with winners of TC races. The pattern that has emerged from the success of the Northern Dancer broodmare sire line favors Dublin. Only the sons of Northern Dancer have been broodmare sires of Derby winners. Storm Bird a son of Northern Dancer is the dam sire of Dublin. If the pattern favors Dublin, it does not favor the new Derby favorite Lookin At Lucky, possible second favorite Sidney’s Candy and long shot American Lion. Their dams were all sired grandsons of Northern Dancer. No grandson of ND has to date been a broodmare sire of a Derby winner. In fact, only two of his grandsons have been associated with broodmares that have produced winners of TC races. If this trend continues, Dublin is more likely to win the Derby over LAL, SC & AL. The pattern does not favor Ice Box either. His dam was sired by Tabasco Cat a great grandson of Northern Dancer. No great grandson of ND has ever been a broodmare associated with the winner of a TC race.  Of the ten broodmare sires from the ND line associated with the 18 TC winners, 8 were sons and two grandsons. Great grandsons of the great stallion are nonexistent on the TC chart. Devil May Care and Stately Victor are becoming more and more appealing.

28 Apr 2010 1:41 AM
zarvona

 Gee ...Now after 6 months of deciding whom we like as horses and picks, we have to deal with the weatherman all over again! I remember last year, where I never saw "Dunkirk" until long after the race in some replay. I thought that as a gray that he was going to be easy track. Then all of the horses were off and soon mud brown and you couldn't pick out one from other accept for the announcers voice. It was only in the replay that I watched him stumbled out of the gate and crawl on his knees, virtually ending his chance and my hopes. I surely wish that we get a break in the weather for the enjoyment of all and a 'clean race', that being if the Kentucky Derby has ever had a clean race.

28 Apr 2010 3:29 AM
Gary Lynn

Jersey Boy...you must be from Newark of Camden where it's safer to stay inside! Actually, the winningest post in the last 43 years has been post #10 with seven wins. Next winningest post is #5 with five wins. Posts #1 through #9 produced twenty-three winners in that time frame. Better would be posts #2 through #10 with twenty-nine winners or #5 through #13 with twenty-five.

28 Apr 2010 5:00 AM
Slew

Footlick...I see Buckpasser in many great pedigrees...without problems.  Sea The Stars (dam) and Einstein (sire) are the first that come to mind.  After reading Steve's article today on the exclusion of Endorsement, I'm still waiting to see him work.  Chances are there may be a sloppy track on Saturday...so why not train in the slop?  We've had so much rain lately, chances are rain or not, you're still talking about a sealed track.

28 Apr 2010 8:05 AM
Slew

Once again..rumor proves to be the truth...Endorsement is out. This is very sad, as I thought highly of him.  This also puts Backtalk in the Derby.  So now, I'm back to SV, Ice Box and LAL.

28 Apr 2010 9:52 AM
Footlick

Slew- Buckpasser is in many great pedigrees because he was one of the great Broodmare sires of all time.  And now his presence is farther back than it was in his heyday as the top broodmare sire in the world.  But, he as always known for passing on soundness issues.   But the brilliance of his fillies and their foals offset that.  You rarely if ever saw anybody inbreeding to him at that time. They said it was too risky.  Remember that Buckpassers presence in Sea the Stars is pretty far back.  And in Einstein's case, the mare seems really stoutly bred.  I'm not knocking Buckpasser at all- I may be his biggest fan ever.  He certainly is my favorite horse of all time.  But I do know what breeders and bloodline analysts said about him when he was at the top of the breeding world and everybody was clamoring to breed to a Buckpasser mare.  They all warned do not inbreed to him.  Now, because his presence is far enough back, it may be different. Super Saver has him 3 times in his pedigree.  I never discount the plusses that Buckpasser blood gives in a pedigree.

28 Apr 2010 9:59 AM
Linda in Texas

Billy's Empire, Endorsement out! Sometimes we all need to have a little more patience,same as with Esky not training last weekend, i was curious then news ended up being bad, now as well with Endorsement. Did the sticky mud do it to both of them?

Steve - In your God's and Devil post you mentioned the look in Mission Impazible's eyes.

Yesterday i had that same thought in viewing the photo of Devil May Care headlining Ron Mitchell's article on her. DMC had that same wild look in her eyes that i have also seen in Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. It is like they know something they are keeping to themselves and is really a little scary. I hope she does as well as Rachel and Zen.

So many talented horses to chose from when only one will win! But in reality, to me they all are winners and so too everyone who has a part in their existence.

28 Apr 2010 10:07 AM
Rachel

Aaaagghhh, Endorsement...geeze louise...did I like that colt...

Still high on SC, like SS, JB...still only betting on the longshots, though.

28 Apr 2010 10:17 AM
Billy's Empire

my o my

endoresement out, Make Music for Me in!

I got all kinds of great info today on the backside... more to come

28 Apr 2010 10:17 AM
Greg J.

   A shame about Endorsement, Hope he heals up and we see him back in the fall.  My thoughts go out to his owners and Shannon Ritter...

    Depending on what Mr. Pletcher does with Interactiff, I believe this gets Backtalk and Make Music for Me in the Derby???  While he will be a huge longshot, Don't forget about the son of Smarty Jones, I know I won't...

28 Apr 2010 10:24 AM
trebloc

It now looks like Super Saver is the best bred horse in the Derby... Bummer for Shannon and Winstar.  

28 Apr 2010 10:31 AM
Footlick

Another horse out.  I had a feeling something was amiss.  I wish I could find a reason to think Conveyance might get 10 furlongs other than Baffert training him.  He's training superbly.  Great last quarters and great gallop outs.  Can't wait for more info Billy!

28 Apr 2010 10:32 AM
Greg J.

    Here is a link to watch the Derby Draw Live at Noon:

www.courier-journal.com/.../307240002&template=mogulus

28 Apr 2010 10:45 AM
trebloc

Billy,

Looking forward to your inside information.

28 Apr 2010 11:08 AM
Pam S.

Alexis Barba has got to be on tranquilizers by now.  First she wins two stakes races on the same day and thinks she has two Derby horses.  Then both finish off the board in their final preps and she's down to none.  Then Alphie's Bet wins a big Cal-bred race so it looks like she has a nice horse for the Belmont.  Then several horses defect at the 11th hour and Make Music for Me is IN, after it looked so bleak!  She would be my pick for first woman trainer to win the Run for the Roses.

28 Apr 2010 11:12 AM
JerseyBoy

Gary Lynn:

I know the stats but I will be caught dead ever betting on a horse drawn higher than 9 in any 2-turn race. As I said, if the horse I like draws 10 or higher I just won't bet. It is my system. It has worked against me at times. For instance, I bet Monarchos in 2 Future pools but stayed clear of him on raceday because he was drawn wide. He won anyway.

It is the way I limit myself. So if Super Saver draws wide, I will just watch the race.

By the way, I live in one of those Tony Zip Codes.

28 Apr 2010 11:39 AM
Greg J.

Everyone, Just remember this song during the Derby  ;)

www.youtube.com/watch

28 Apr 2010 11:49 AM
Billy's Empire

Where to start. Conveyance has the best Prime power in the field. next 5 are

Lucky

Super

Dulin

Noble's Promise

Awesome Act

Awesome has has the farrior at his barn twice this week already. Hoof issues??

Lucky may finally have his back end issues fixed. The pro Ride messed him up behind

Line of David is a toss. He does not like the surface at all, and it is forecast to rain.

Statley Victor got in at 930. the training track he was on is really soft, and CD is hard when it is wet. it will be a huge adjustment for him, but Maker likes Statley over Dean;s Kitten

It is thought that Super Saver is now Todd's best shot at derby glory. mission impazzible looked awesome though today, although class and Prime Power are 14th out of 22....

Super and Awesome are relishing the off track.

Setsuko looked the best of all of the horses on the track today, IMO.

He will be ready for the turf on Friday, and is confirmed for the Belmont if all goes well with him.

Blinkers were put on BE Fair for the Rachel race, and she is very focused.

Tidal Pool is sitting on a huge race. Watch at long odds

I think if there is going to be another Oaks/Derby riding double, calvin has a shot again, as does Julien.

Rachel looked awesome. I stopped by her barn and took a look. She is ready.

Sidney looked great as well. He is the big question mark, but many on the backside are wondering how he will handle not being on the lead??

this is interesting. I will be there again in the morning. hopefully I can get some more info.

Conveyance is starting to intrigue me a bit though. War Embelm anyone at 20-1

28 Apr 2010 11:57 AM
TJ

Gotta love the fave,who always seems to get stuck in traffic gets the #1 and the horse who wants to be out front gets #20

BOMBS AWAY!!

28 Apr 2010 12:32 PM
Criminal Type

So much for luck being with Lookin For Lucky. As if all the bad trips he has had all year were not enough, he grabs the rail for the Derby. I hope he gets a clean break and desent trip. Same goes for Sidney's Candy in the 20. I don't see him pulling a Big Brown move from the 20 hole. Can't wait to see the whole line up. Where are my gray's ?  lol

On my previous post, I misspoke, I was talking about Nick Zito and Ice Box/6 week layoff, not Endorsement. It's damn shame he is injured.  Thankfully Shannon Ritter caught it early. Hope he recovers and has a good life, on the track of off.

28 Apr 2010 12:44 PM
tcc

Everyone should have a top 7 list right now. Once the derby draw is out you can probably eliminate 2 horses that will leave you with 5. Dont bet horses in spot 1, 17,18,19 or 20 they have no chance at all! If LAL lands one of those spots....TOSS! Yes big brown did it but there are no big brown's this year!

It Aint Easy being good 27 Apr 2010 1:12 PM

Here's the horse's that have drawn the post posistion's you mentioned above:

1 Lookin at Lucky

17 Dublin

18 Balktalk

19 Homeboykris

20 Sidney's Candy

28 Apr 2010 12:47 PM
Slew

Oh Crap...reminds me of a song..."If it weren't for bad luck, he'd have no luck at all!".

Have to drop LAL off my favorites list.  Stately Victor is sitting pretty at #6.  Ice Box can do well from #2.  To show..???...maybe Paddy O'Prado?  Decent Post draw at #10.  I have a feeling the odds will change dramatically with LAL now drawing the rail.  American Lion has a decent post, but I am not confident in his ability.

28 Apr 2010 12:52 PM
Vic S - Stately Victor's #1 Fan

Okay post positions are taken and I am here for my FINAL Derby Dozen (whole field included) lol.

1.  Stately Victor (Post 6)

2.  Devil May Care (Post 11)

3.  Lookin at Lucky (Post 1)

4.  Dublin (Post 17)

5.  Paddy O' Prado (Post 10)

6.  Conveyance (Post 12)

7.  Super Saver (Post 4)

8.  Ice Box (Post 2)

9  Sidney's Candy (Post 20)

10 Mission Impazible (Post 14)

11Awesome Act (Post 16)

12.  Noble's Promise (Post 3)

13.  Jackson Bend (Post 13)

14.  Dean's Kitten (Post 8)

15.  American Lion (Post 7)

16.  Discreetly Mine (Post 15)

17.  Backtalk (Post 18)

18.  Make Music for Me (Post 9)

19.  Line of David (Post 5)

20.  Homeboykris (Post 19)

Now for explanations, obviously my top 3 were unchanged due to good-ok posts.Lucky got post 1 but that wont matter given his tenaciousness and professionalism.  The huge drop was Sidney's Candy, he went from 4th to 9th due to post position and also the fact that he was using a martingale and going all-out in workout suggests to me he is a little rank and come Derby Day may sweat out and be used early.  The others are they way they are.  STATELY VICTOR IS MY DERBY HORSE.

28 Apr 2010 12:56 PM
Forbidden Apple

1-AWESOME ACT 2-SIDNEYS CANDY

3-LOOKIN AT LUCKY 4-CONVEYANCE

5-DEVIL MAY CARE 6-ICE BOX

Ranagulzion,

Pletcher's best chance to hit the board is with Devil May Care. She is very classy, but I am questioning her ability to run fast at 1 1/4 miles. Good luck on saturday and be sure to use Awesome Act, Sidneys Candy, and Conveyance. Conveyance is looking great and deserves a long look!

28 Apr 2010 1:08 PM
Bluelou

Sheesh....my picks drew posts 1,2,20.  Time to rethink!

28 Apr 2010 1:08 PM
Criminal Type

Kentucky Derby 136

Post

Horse

Jockey

Weight

Odds

1

Lookin At Lucky

Garrett Gomez

126

3-1

2

Ice Box

Jose Lezcano

126

10-1

3

Noble's Promise

Willie Martinez

126

12-1

4

Super Saver

Calvin Borel

126

15-1

5

Line of David

Rafael Bejarano

126

30-1

6

Stately Victor

Alan Garcia

126

30-1

7

American Lion

David Flores

126

30-1

8

Dean's Kitten

Robby Albarado

126

50-1

9

Make Music For Me

Joel Rosario

126

50-1

10

Paddy O'Prado

Kent Desormeaux

126

20-1

11

Devil May Care

John Velazquez

121

10-1

12

Conveyance

Martin Garcia

126

12-1

13

Jackson Bend

Mike Smith

126

15-1

14

Mission Impazible

Rajiv Maragh

126

20-1

15

Discreetly Mine

Javier Castellano

126

30-1

16

Awesome Act

Julien Leparoux

126

10-1

17

Dublin

Terry Thompson

126

12-1

18

Backtalk

Miguel Mena

126

50-1

19

Homeboykris

Ramon Dominguez

126

50-1

20

Sidney's Candy

Joe Talamo

126

5-1

28 Apr 2010 1:17 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

What would have been the Derby winner is not in The Derby, and he is healthy, raring to go. Setsuko is reported to be looking phenominal. My Oaks pick was Devil May Care. The only Triple Crown candidates are out of the race, one from injury and two right there on the bubble. Eskendereya, Setsuko, and Pleasant Prince. The two of those three that are healthy could dominate the rest of the Triple Crown. For Homeboykris this is a prep or the end of the road as it will be for others who are in way over their heads. The new King of The Triple Crown is The Belmont Stakes and we have seen some phenominal races in The Belmont this century. I'm looking forward to The Belmont where Setsuko will show the world that he is THE CLASS of the division. In The Derby I don't think Sidney's post will hurt him. It's a very tough spot for Lucky and his ML should be no lower than 5-1, however I think this year's ML by Battaglia was very good and he obviously put more thought into it than he did last year. Huge Superfecta payoff and probably very big Trifecta payoff in this year's Derby. Exacta shouldn't be too shabby either. The Derby was supposed to be the first test of the best three year olds in the country. Sadly that is no longer the case and The Derby is a shell of it's former self. It's lost it's luster and direction because of archaic rules, and of the goal of "just to get in" whether their horse is ready for a big race or not.

28 Apr 2010 1:27 PM
Destin

Dr Drunkinbum,

How can you say those two are the class of the field..... They didn't even get into the field.....and the other is hurt and might not even run again. And the Derby is still a test of the horses that can withstand the preps, hold up, and Make it to the big dance. I like what Wayne Lukas said, It doesn't matter what happens in the junior prom (referring to the preps), all the matters is the big dance..

28 Apr 2010 1:54 PM
Billy's Empire

drunk, Setsuko looks awesome!!

28 Apr 2010 2:11 PM
Carlos in Cali

Dr Drunkinbum-- maybe you should lay off the sauce, Setsuko the class of the division?  whatever.

28 Apr 2010 2:31 PM
Bloodline Bob

Steve, My final pick TO WIN the 2010 Kentucky Derby is--DEVIL MAY CARE($200 WPS) I'm doing a $20 exacta box--DEVIL MAY CARE, AMERICAN LION, MAKE MUSIC FOR ME and DEAN'S KITTEN. As I said on Jan. 25, 2010 the sire of the 2010 KY. DERBY winner will have a 1997 date of birth. Those horses that have a sire with the 1997 date of birth as of today(4-28-10) are: AMERICAN LION, DEVIL MAY CARE and MAKE MUSIC FOR ME.  I hope we all win on Derby day. RBA.

28 Apr 2010 2:51 PM
Orphan Annie

I originally was going with Lookin at Lucky but after talking to my brother in Calif. (who has raised/bred thorobreds,) he convinced me to go with Stately Victor.

28 Apr 2010 2:58 PM
Forbidden Apple

Dr Drunkinbum,

I respect most of your posts, but this last one is way off. The KY Derby has not lost its luster or class because one horse has not made it in the starting gate. I agree 100% that Setsuko is a talented horse and clearly belongs in the race over many others. There are plenty of other horses to watch and have an interest in. Enjoy the race and pick a winner!

28 Apr 2010 3:08 PM
KYFan

Sitting here at the barn killing time and thinking.  I just wonder about Billys Empire.

Who even if they are an owner is allowed to wander all over the backside in and out of barns at will? Not in my barn. Most Derby trainers have some pretty serious security or at least tape or sawhorses up.

The other thing is all this inside info is always after the word is already out. Even if the post comes in and is not published right away time on the writing is when it was received. Golly I just don't get it. The inside info is already out there for anyone to read about by the time we hear it on here from someone posting.

People like Mr. Haskin are probably getting real updates and has much better inside info.

28 Apr 2010 3:09 PM
Vic S

Dr Drunkinbum - sorry, but the fact is the Derby winner is currently in the derby field.  Setsuko didn't make it because he was never meant to win the Derby as with Esky.

28 Apr 2010 3:44 PM
Tigers Farm

I'm quite surprised that you or anybody else is not giving Conveyance much of a chance. I realize this years Derby has an abundance of front running speed horses of which I think Conveyance is the most superior. I also think his performance in his last race, th Sunland Derby should be totally disregarded, owing to the track condition. Anyone who raced a horse there that day was just lucky to get their horse out alive and injury free. I think most of the other speed in the derby will attempt to have their horses rate off the speed, giving Conveyance an excellent chance to do what he does best: Control the race from the lead.

28 Apr 2010 4:10 PM
Bluelou

I see Conveyance, American Lion, Line of David and Super Saver as the first horses to make the turn.  If Sadler's instructions to Talamo are to gun for the lead with Sidney breaking from 20, he has a chance to get there but I think thats suicide.  If the rail is in good shape, Lucky could be perfectly positioned, as Ice Box will take back.  That could set up the race well for both.

But I've been wrong every year for the past decade.

28 Apr 2010 4:25 PM
Destin

Everyone is making such a big deal of Dublin not passing horses in the Stretch of the Ark Derby.... What about Super Saver not passing Line of David in the Stretch?

28 Apr 2010 5:11 PM
It Aint Easy being good

Its hard to toss Conveyance especially a horse that has only lost once. Go back to the sunland derby and watch conveyance in the final furlong he was gased. Now imagine hime running an extra 1/8th of dirt......TOSS TOSS TOSS!

American Lion is your horse people get on the bandwagon!!

28 Apr 2010 5:26 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Forbidden Apple

  I will take your advice. I'm looking for a longshot. The actual betting is going to be very interesting. Longshots will be coming down in odds, and favorites will be going up in odds. A post time favorite of 4-1 or less will be a shocker. It's wide open.

28 Apr 2010 5:27 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Vic S

  Sometimes destiny is changed by himan acts. That doesn't mean it wasn't the original destination. Destiny has changed, someone altered the plan, but it's going to be very interesting. And I do like your colt, Stately Vic. He's one of the longshots that are appealing, that I'm considering. I think the winner will be no less than 12-1 and most likely higher. Who is ready to run the race of his life Saturday? Maybe it was you that put his finger in the pie and changed the course of events so that Stately Vic could win. Hmmmm.........!!!!!!!

28 Apr 2010 5:33 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Zookeeper

  I'm not playing a big ticket but I'll be looking for a longshot to key and taking a stab. As far as American Lion is concerned-He has matured faster than many Tiznow's. I have no idea who I like yet.

28 Apr 2010 5:36 PM
tk's shots

conveyance to win

28 Apr 2010 5:44 PM
TerriV

I really hate to pick now.  After all there's Thursday, Friday and Saturday's weather but here goes:

Lookin At Lucky (even if he is fav)

Conveyance (like him that much)

Dublin (always there)

Sidney's Candy (he's not Big Brown)

American Lion (Steve says he looks great)

Paddy O'Prado (impressive & grey)

Devil May Care (unknown factor)

Super Saver (unsure of this one -could be higher. great pedigree & Calvin is up)

28 Apr 2010 6:26 PM
Vic S - Stately Victor's #1 Fan

@ Dr. Drunkinbum,

Not only did I stick my finger in the pie, I ate it too lol!  Stately Victor to win the Derby!

28 Apr 2010 6:40 PM
Bluelou

It Aint Easy....I've been eyeballing that AL bandwagon for a week or so and after today's post-draw hurt LAL and SC's chances, I'm on board!

I still like Ice Box's late speed and I'll put LAL in 3rd.  I think his momentum will get halted once or twice during the race, but he's used to that.

I'm playing Lion-Ice/Lion-Ice/Lucky-Awesome-Sidney-Super and some variation of that for the Superfecta as well.

Dublin worries me because I've all but ignored him....

28 Apr 2010 7:07 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

You guys might be right. After looking at the pps, this is going to be a very exciting race. I might have gotten my destinies mixed up. Maybe Setsuko was destined to win The Belmont all along and not The Derby. I think destiny might lie with Lookin At Lucky even in the one post or with one of the big longshots. I'm over it, pretty much, and looking forward to this great race. Isn't the Derby wonderful. All shiny and bright. Big, big payouts coming. Do you feel lucky spunky, well do ya?

28 Apr 2010 7:08 PM
Rachel

Greg J...now that was funny...! He's looking good...

28 Apr 2010 7:11 PM
Gary Lynn

Derby post position 0-fers, last 43 years...#14-Mission Impazible, #17-Dublin, #19-Homeboykris.  Sorry Joe

28 Apr 2010 8:11 PM
Gary Lynn

Jersey Boy...Wish we knew who Tony likes!

28 Apr 2010 8:15 PM
TheMilton

OUCH... Sidney draws post 20.  Lucky gets post 1.  Lucky hurt more then Sidney as traffic will be murder for him.  Still like Lucky to get in the tri/superfecta with late kick.  American Lion has great post and is my play if value is there at post time 25:1 or better.  Sidney still could do it and will have him on top of many tickets despite the awful post... he still could really improve on dirt.  Drastic (and now needed) improvement from him is a possibility... he's no Big Brown, but this crop of 3 year olds isn't staggering either with Esky gone.  These post draws sure look to pump up the payout numbers.

28 Apr 2010 8:36 PM
Paula Higgins

Bily's Empire loved your comments. I am still thinking Sidney's Candy has a good shot in the 20 spot. I don't think Lookin At Lucky is toast either from #1. But I like Ice Box and the filly as well. Dr Drunkinbum you aren't alone. Aot of people think Setsuko is special. A shame he didn't make it.

28 Apr 2010 9:25 PM
Matthew W

Steve from one who likes a good angle to another: Rosario draws two mounts, Crisp on Fri, Make Music For Me on Sat--two who loved Hollywood, which plays like dirt, both ridden by Joel Rosario, a guy with a finishing touch that reminds me of Pincay (the great...)

28 Apr 2010 9:36 PM
Zookeeper

My birthday is July 4th (no kidding!)so who do I find in Post 7? American Lion and on Post 4? Super Saver. Two horses that I left out of my list of 10 favorites, a couple of weeks ago. Just for fun, I'll bet an exacta box on them, the 2 horses that WinStar Farm still has in the Derby after looking like they were loaded for bears at the start of the season.

I know! I know! I said I wouldn't bet on American Lion...but it's not my fault: Karma and the racing gods are making me do it!  :)

Dr Drunkinbum,

Glad to see you are out of your funk!

28 Apr 2010 10:04 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Paula Higgins

  Thanks, I needed that hug.

Matthew W

  I agree 100%. Pincay was my favorite for many years, now Rosario is. I think he will be the best in the country, or certainly top 3 or 4.

Coldfacts

   Thanks for your info !!!!!!

28 Apr 2010 10:08 PM
Zookeeper

Matthew W,

Make Music for Me, trained by a woman, gets in at the last minute because Endorsement, trained by another woman, is sadly injured the morning of the draw. That's even a better angle than my birthday! The Rosario factor is not bad either. Are we getting desperate or what?  :)

28 Apr 2010 10:11 PM
Urbs

Gary Lynn,

     The track is going to be muddy/sloppy/soaked and only one horse loves it wet.   The order of finish is going to be Mission Impazible/Awesome act/Dublin/ and the first to horses love it wet and Mission Impazible will pull away in the stretch and win.   When a horse loves the mud it does not matter what post position they are in , in any race.    I know for sure that Mission Impazible will win the Kentucky Derby and Awesome Act will come in second.     Urbs

28 Apr 2010 10:15 PM
Ranagulzion

For those who can't wait until Saturday,here's the scenario passing the stands for the first time: Super Saver hugs and "hogs" the rail under Calvin Borel, keeping Line Of David, American Lion and Paddy O'Prado towards the middle of the track. Conveyance, Jackson Bend and Discretely Mine range up on the outside at a furious clip leaving Sidney's Candy very wide.  Mission Impazible, Noble's Promise, Homeboykris, Devil may Care and Awsome Act shuffle into mid-pack while Looking At Lucky, Stately Victor, Backtalk, Dublin, Dean's Kitten and Ice Box break up the rear in the hope of passing tired front runners around the far turn.

A very fast first quarter ensues (22 and change) with a slower second quarter producing the 1st half mile in about 45 and change (racehorse time). Super Saver will draw first blood with a half mile to go (catch me if you can)being chased by Sidney's Candy, Discretely Mine, Jackson Bend and Paddy O'Prado. Watch for big middle moves from Noble's Promise, Mission Impazible, Awesome Act and Looking At Lucky.  Some of the early speed will be retreating at the 3/8 pole having already run 3/4 in 1:10 flat.

As they turn for home, it will be Super Saver continuing to skim the rail with Calvin "Bo-rail" smelling his 3rd Kentucky Derby victory in four years. Advancing powerfully from mid-pack will be Mission Impazible, Awesome Act, Devil May Care and Noble's Promise, while the closers led by Looking at Lucky,Ice Box and Stately Victor also loom dangerous but impeeded by the retreating Sidney's Candy (compromised by the wide trip), a gallant Jackson Bend (burnt by pace and distance) and a determined Discretely Mine (runnning the race of his life).

At the eighth pole it is still Super Saver battling away tenaciously, only to succomb (very grudgingly) to a late surge from his stablemate Mission Impazible (under a peach of a ride from Rajiv Maragh) with the filly Devil May Care holding off a flying Homeboykris (from out of the clouds) for the show spot.

This is not a dream but I'm sure it reads like a nightmare for Mike Relva, Forbidden Apple, Cold Facts, Draynay and a few other Pletcher detractors on here ...not trying to scare you ...just applying an immunization shot before Pletchermania strikes.  Esky may be out injured but the Todd Squad juggernaut is still unstoppable.  Good luck to all.

BTW Dr. Drunkinbum it is time to get over Setsuko's derby shortcommings and stop beating up on the Homeboy.  He won the Champaigne as a promising 2YO and earned his shot at a fourth place finish (LOL).        

28 Apr 2010 10:21 PM
Urbs

In this years Derby the first ten horses are going to be cut off at the start and the outside horses will get to the front.   Only two horses will be coming from behind that will be awesome act and Dublin and they will finish behind Mission Impazible.   On a wet wet track you have to go with a horse that loves mud and Mission Impazible loves the mud.   There is going to be a lot of horses that are just going to get tired because they can not run in the mud or slop.    Urbs

28 Apr 2010 10:22 PM
Urbs

Mission Impazible will be the next triple crown winner.   Mission Impazible will win the Kentucky Derby by 10 the Preakness by 1 and the Belmont by 9 .   The 2010 year will be one for the record books.   Rajiv will win the Kentucky Oaks also on Friday.   The win price in the Oaks will pay $68.40 for the win.     Urbs

28 Apr 2010 10:31 PM
SmartStrike

Sure nobody wants the No. 1 post but it really shouldn't be a major problem for Lucky.  Even if breaks a little slow or gets squeezed he's going to be mid pack to back of the mid pack. From that point on it's up to Gomez and the racing gods.  I think he is going to show he is the best of those running on Saturday. Esky looked very good but unfortunately he's out.

From all accounts Lucky has taken to Churchill and has worked very well and seems to be 100% ready.  His only dirt race was a Ragozin 4 and he had trouble in it.

I like Super Saver in the exacta and liked Sydney but may have to toss him because of the 20 draw. He will likely have to be used to keep from being parked.

28 Apr 2010 10:53 PM
zarvona

  Maybe the best place for  "Sidney's Candy" to start is the outside #20 gate, all so Talamo can decide whether and where he wants to settle him. Who knows? Just because only 2 horses have won from there, well they were special horses too. As long as he doesn't stumble out of the gate or get a slow start, I really don't see this post hurting him as much as it might have others. And, a few keep adding that 'he'll be there at the turn and then melt away because he had to work so hard to get there'. Trust me, he we will not melt away... Again, dbl bred to "Bold Ruler" on his damn side, the father of "Secretariat",--the record holder at 12 furlongs,--I see NO MELTING!!!  I just hope we aren't running in muddy slop, steady rain, and a T-storm! That could change all more than his post draw. SPEED KILLS! And someone will have to have a burner run to catch him still. THIS IS NO ORDINARY HORSE!  I will only play 7 others on top of him!! and perhaps 11-14 under him!! ...then I will consider triples from what I see track side. I haven't given up and thrown in the towel because ya'll don't like his gate position!!! And I am sure that his connections won't throw in the towel either!!!

29 Apr 2010 3:20 AM
Trebloc

Remember SS broke is maiden at Belmont in the slope, going wire to wire.

29 Apr 2010 6:24 AM
Urbs

Mission Impazible loves the mud and slop.  A lot of horses in the derby are going to step on that track and not run because they do not like to run in the mud.   Horses that run on the fake dirt will not lift a foot if the track is sloppy.    Mission Impazible by ten lengths from any post.   Urbs

29 Apr 2010 7:45 AM
Slew

Does anyone on this blog actually believe that any jockey will allow Calvin to get near the rail?  Even when they don't...he manages to get there...but I'm not keen on Super Saver.  Now if he was on LAL, I might have a bit more faith in both horse and rider.

29 Apr 2010 7:59 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Ranagulzion

  OK. I'll pick on Backtalk instead. BTW- 0 for 28. His quality not quantity horse unfortunately was injured. However, a chance to crack the board. I'm just not seeing the win.

I'm picking whoever Haskin ignores or gives a very short positive blurb to, or whoever is the best looking longshot.

29 Apr 2010 9:11 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Loves the slop, loves sloppy joes, wallows in the mud, eats mud pies for breakfast, never wears a raincoat, refuses to use an umbrella, loves mud milkshakes, favorite dessert is mud and oat cookies, his mudder was a mudder, his fadder was a mudder, his grandmudder was a mudder. That's who I'm picking.

29 Apr 2010 9:17 AM
LV Wiseguy

Since Devil May Care is a filly does that make her a She-Devil?

29 Apr 2010 10:09 AM
Forbidden Apple

Ranagulzion,

Keep dreaming and praying for your guy pal Pletcher, he will be 0-47 after saturday! You act as if the other horses and trainers are dirt.

Urbs,

How could you possibly know the results of the KY Derby before the race? Be careful acting like you are so sure, it hurts bad when you get burned by Pletcher. The theme of this years Pletcher regime should be Mission Impossible.

Conveyance and Sidneys Candy are going to spoil the party for both of you up front. And then Awesome Act and Lookin At Lucky are going to be flying late.

29 Apr 2010 10:54 AM
Greg J.

Mr. Haskin,

      Thought you and everyone would love to see the trailer for Secretariat's movie, Looks like it will be like him, Amazing...

Enjoy:

disney.go.com/.../secretariat

29 Apr 2010 11:42 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Zookeeper

   Thanks for your support !!!! I'm working hard at it. Setsuko will win The Belmont and the L'Arc de Triomphe but will lose by a nostil hair in The Breeder's Cup Classic to The Great Zenyatta. Then Setsuko and Zenyatta will both retire and hook up to produce Z Bubblebuster.

29 Apr 2010 12:54 PM
Rook

As my name says I'm pretty new to this, but as I'm looking over speeds and times it looks like Jackson's Bend is a solid horse.  Winner?  Probably Not, hit the board...maybe?  I'm not sure can anyone give me some reasoning as to why he is such a long shot?  Pedigree?  Prior races (only loses to Eskendearya who I thought was a major player).  Also if anyone is at CD how does he look I see nothing on him when I try to look around.  After last year I want to make sure I give the long shots some serious looks especially with a field that is as close as this one.

29 Apr 2010 1:02 PM
El Kabong

Well, no denying it now. We will have ugly weather for the Derby again. Put gutters and a down spout on your hat. I prefer to go with Two burbons, hold the ice, the rain will sully them as it is.

That said, take a good look at what happened last year folks. You can look at the tomlinson and off track breading all day and the fact is, they did not show up at the finish. Pattern of who did is clear. 4 of top 5 were horses who had predominately and exclusively synthetic experience prior to the derby. Coincidence? Kinda hard to argue especially when you look at the odds of those horses. Musket Man, who ran a number of races on the deep surface of Tampa was the only non synthetic horse to hit the board.  Take it for what it is worth, as one year does not mean it is a solid survey, but 4 of 5 is hard to ignore folks. If it helps anyone get some green sunshine then mission accomplished. You can't deny horses who are enjoying the wet surface as they train, Awesome and Super, but a word to the muddy wise don't forget the synthetic angle could help fill in your exotics.

29 Apr 2010 1:09 PM
Zookeeper

Mr Haskin,

Your article, Victor in the Slop, was very helpful. I liked him very much after the Blue Grass and put him in my top 5 favorites. Now, I like him even better with the forecast so gloomy for Saturday. I enjoyed "And They're Off" today also. That was quite an interview with Lucas & Baffert! You picked Lucky (in spite of Bob's request), I hope you're right and that he will overcome a less than ideal post position.

Greg J.,

Thank you for the link to the Secretariat trailer. Can't wait to see that movie. I better take a lot of Kleenex with me, as I was already crying (like a fool) just watching a glimpse of what's in store for us in the fall.

Dr Drunkinbum,

Setsuko will shine tomorrow and in the Belmont. There is so much more to horse racing than the Derby. I know it's hard to think about anything else right now, but the fever will brake... eventually. I'm still working on my bets. It's hard to narrow it down to something financially reasonable.

P.S. Love your idea of ZenSet foal!

29 Apr 2010 4:18 PM
TerriV

Ok, Greg J, just the trailer has me in tears.  It really looks stunning.  Great casting on that horse!  I just can't wait.  

Back to this derby. I just read Steve's article on Stately Victor and the slop and watched some video of him working.  He is just gorgeous!  I may have to move him up.

29 Apr 2010 4:49 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Lenny, Steve, Zookeeper

   That interview with Baffert and Lukas was fantastic. Lenny is a very, very good interviewer but I don't know about museum curator. He's a little weak there. I say stick to the interviewing-some real skills there. Loved the Haskin article today. I'm hoping that tomorrow will be a physicality review of every horse. Zookeeper-Exacta box your top 5-10.

29 Apr 2010 4:50 PM
Criminal Type

Thanks for the Secretariat trailer whoever posted it, I cant believe John Malcovich is Lucian Lauren, too funny ! I can't wait to see the whole movie. He was such a magnificant horse, I was only 12 when he won the triple crown, but I was there at Pimlico that day he won the Preakness with my grandparents. He was something else, too bad he was never able to reporduce himself in his offspring. I was so saddened to hear of his death from laminitis so many years after his retirement from racing. What a wonerful champion he was.

Also, Can't wait to see Better than Honours Street Cry filly.

29 Apr 2010 5:08 PM
tcc

Steve:

And They're Off Show.

When Lenny asked you for you're 1 pick of which horse you like, I kind of chuckled, just thinking you might come out and say Monba again.

Also that interview you guy's had with MR. Lukas and Mr. Baffert was terrific.

29 Apr 2010 5:14 PM
Urbs

#14 is going to become the new lucky number.  I am going to play #1414 in the WIN 4  on Sat. $100.00 box $100.00 straight because I am that sure that Mission Impazible will win the derby and the triple crown.   Urbs

29 Apr 2010 5:53 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Bily's Empire

   Your posts are great and much appreciated. Give us more !!! Especially on physicality. Thanks.

29 Apr 2010 7:15 PM
Zookeeper

Dr Drunkinbum,

Are you talking about the 5 thru 10 on my list of a couple of weeks ago? I hope not, because Stately Victor was #4. Also, I've changed my mind about Super Saver. I like the way he trained, his post, Borel and the fact that this is his 3rd race after a lay-off (which was bothering me back then when he wasn't on my list at all). I had Dublin at #7, now I've replaced him with Jackson Bend, since he always seems to hit the board and I like the hard trying, honest, smallish colts (a la MTB). Conveyance is scaring me because since Line of David doesn't appear to like the slop at all, Conveyance, the speed of the speed, could very well take off and never look back.

Here's my list now, in no particular order:

Looking at Lucky

Ice Box (don't like his name)

Super Saver

Stately Victor

Paddy O'Prado

Devil May Care

Conveyance

Jackson Bend

Mission Impazable

Awesome Act

I've taken Sidney off my list. Don't like the post and he doesn't like the wet track. Obviously, I need to eliminate a few others. I think I'll start with Lucky. I can't imagine a worse post for him.

If I can't get this list down to 5 and feel good about it, I'm not betting at all. Which is what I usually do when I can't make up my mind about any given race.

However, I will bet the Oaks/Derby double with Blind Luck/and the 10 horses on my list, hoping that the longest shot (on my list) wins the Derby.

This is the hardest I've ever worked on the Derby and by now I have a headache and the thrill is gone... to quickly come back at post time whether I've placed a bet or not.  :)

29 Apr 2010 9:49 PM
John T

As another important classic is also taking place on the first Saturday in May,the 2000 Guineas at

Newmarket in England it,s worth taking a look at as it is a race that usually has a big say come Breeders Cup time.The Racing Post Trophy run at Doncaster in the fall

has proved a most valuable guide.The horses from that race that have already run as 3 year olds have all shown promise and chief among them has been Elusive

Pimpernel,who had finished second and showed a tremendous turn of foot to win the Craven Stakes at Newmarket over a mile.A massive son

of Smarty Jones Sire,Elusive Quality he won like he should have no trouble getting 10 or even 12 furlongs.St.Nicholas Abbey,who won

the Racing Post Trophy makes his first start as a 3 year old in the Guineas and he is still the boss until proven otherwise.Another horse to watch is Godolphin,s Al Zir,who was the third place finisher in the Racing Post Trophy

and is also making his first start as a 3 year old.

29 Apr 2010 10:46 PM
redandblacksilks

On the slop/mud:

Awesome act

American Lion

Conveyance

Lookin At Lucky

Mission Impazable

Super Saver

Noble's Promise

Oaks:

If it's sloppy/muddy I'll bet against Blind Luck

Will there ever be a Kentucky Derby run on a fast track again?

29 Apr 2010 11:05 PM
Vic S - Stately Victor's #1 Fan

You heard it here first, Stately Victor will win the Triple Crown.  Stately Victor is my Derby horse!

29 Apr 2010 11:06 PM
Greg J.

Urbs,

    One question, Why the name change from Joe to Urbs?, Thanks...

30 Apr 2010 12:13 AM
Carlos in Cali

JOE..I mean Urbs,or is it Joan/John?..anyways...  MI has lost TWICE on a wet track, 0 for 2. You were saying?..

Folks--- Don't underestimate The Filly! The blinkers will turn her into Wonderwoman.

30 Apr 2010 12:42 AM
Coldfacts

Guys I have to get my views in before the big day. The only problem is I do not know where to start. This is on the Derbies that have the most variables I have seen in a long time. Below is some information that could be useful:

Alternate Year Trend –

12 of the 20 starters are coming into the derby off losses. Of what significance is this? Well, if my records are correct, in the last 10 years the winner’s last race before the derby was as follows:

2000- Fusaichi Pegasus (1stWood); 2001-Monarchos (2nd Wood); 2002-War Emblem (1st Ill Derby); 2003-Funny Cide (2nd Wood); 2004-Smarty Jones (1st AK Derby) 2005-Giacomo (4th SA Derby); 2006-Barbaro (1st FL Derby); 2007-Street Sense (2nd TBG); 2008-Big Brown (1st FL Derby); (2nd Bland Derby) If this trend continues, one of the 8 entrants that won their last race will be the winner of the 2010 derby as the last winner’s final race preceding the derby was a losing effort.  Big guns such as Lookin At Luck, Dublin, Paddy O’Prado Nobles Promise etc will all fall victims to this trend.

Surface Confusion-

Stately Victor, Paddy O,Prado, Deans Kitten and Make Music For Me derby start will represents the third different surface in consecutive races i,e., Turf to Synthetic to Dirt/Slop. Horses are versatile animals but 3 different surfaces in consecutive races must leave the colts confused.

May Foal Infrequency-

14 years elapsed between May foals Mine That Bird (2009) and Thunder Gulch (1995) derby victories. May foals Lookin At Lucky, Stately Victor and Devil May Care could fall victims to this infrequency. May foals occupied the first three spots in the 2009 Derby. What are the odd of this happening in consecutive years? 1000-1

Absence of Derby History-

As successful as the Northern Dancer broodmare line has been (associated with the winners 18 TC races), Storm Cat and his army of sons have made no contributions. They are not on any side the derby chart. In short they have not contributed to derby history. If this trend continues, Sidney’s Candy, Ice Box and American Lion will not be the winner of the 2010 Derby as they are from the Storm Cat broodmare line.

Sire Lines Drought-

Bold Ruler: One derby winner in the last 30 years. Can Devil May Care, Ice Box, Discreetly Mine break the drought?

Best Bred Contender-

Backtalk – Sire won the Derby (sloppy track), Preakness and was 2nd in Belmont. Dam sire Affirmed was a Triple Crown Winner and two times HOY. Nine derby winners in the last 70 years have been sired by a derby winner. None of their broodmare was sired by a derby winner.  If there was ever a horse bred for a derby at Churchill Downs it is Backtalk. Hs his sire and dam sire won the derby there and he has victory over the track. An Affirmed mare was bred to Derby winner Pleasant Colony winner in 1997. The resulting foal went on to win the Breeders Cup Classic & Dubai World Cup. If Backtalk runs anywhere near to his pedigree he will win at an enormous price.

30 Apr 2010 1:29 AM
Raven

The finish position :

1. Sidney's Candy;

2. Super Saver;

3. Stately Victor;

4. Awesome Act;

5. Homeboykris;

6. Lookin at Lucky;

7. Devil May Care;

8. Noble's Promise;

9. Dublin;

10.Mission Impazible;

11.Jackson Bend;

12.American Lion;

13.Ice Box;

14.Conveyance;

15.Paddy O'Prado;

16.Dean's Kitten;

17.Discreetly Mine;

18.Line Of David;

19.Back Talk;

20.Make Music for Me;

30 Apr 2010 2:31 AM
Lauren

I have a good feeling about Super Saver! I like what Steve has been reporting about his works, Todd Pletcher says he has never trained better, and I love his pedigree!

Big fan of Maria's Mon, and we know his kids can handle the distance (Monarchos!)

I am very interested in seeing how American Lion, Paddy O'Prado and Devil May Care finish.

30 Apr 2010 2:32 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Zookeeper

   No. I was talking about whatever you decide to bet. Not your old list.  Good luck !!!!!!  Don't work so hard. Or you could take your favorite horse and box with others. Sounds like you're eliminating the top two favorites so that's good for a payout and it's a high probability that will work. Although Sidney dominating wouldn't be a total shocker but you have to take a stand somewhere. Your list is very similar to mine and mine's still too large too. I'll make an early bet but I hope I see the horses before spending all I want to spend. It will be exciting. I'm doing a daily double also. But not with Blind Luck, will take a stab at a few longshots.

30 Apr 2010 2:58 AM
Slew

It's just not fair...if everybody keeps looking and liking and climbing on Stately Victor...his odds will come down, and I won't have my longshot play.  (but he will win).  

30 Apr 2010 7:42 AM
Coldfacts

The Derby favorite Lookin At Lucky has a big sloppy edge base on Smart Strike. Mine That Bird won the 2009 Derby on a sloppy track. His dam was sired by Smart Strike. The 4th place finisher in the 2009 Derby Papa Clem was sired by Smart Strike. Curlin won the Breeders’ Cup Classic on a very sloppy track. He was sired by Smart Strike. English Channel won the Breeders’ Cup Turf Classic on a soft turf course. He was sired by Smart Strike. Both Curlin and Mine That Bird were able to accelerate rapidly which LAL does not seem capable of doing. In spite of his favoritism, I think the one draw will be his down fall. The dam sire of the previous year winner is almost never the sire of the following year’s winner. LAL has never blown away any field he has met. He will have to grind through horses from an unfavorable draw and will end up running 10.25F. Nice colt but not the 2010 derby winner.

30 Apr 2010 9:00 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

I see you have emerged from you undisclosed location and started posting again. Your respite has not caused any wavering in your views on what remains of the Todds Squad.  A few comment on points in your dream filled post.

“At the eighth pole it is still Super Saver battling away tenaciously, only to succumb (very grudgingly) to a late surge from his stable mate Mission Impazible under a peach of a ride from Rajiv Maragh”

Is it the colt you like or his Jamaican rider? Mission Impazible is a nice colt but using his LA Derby speed figures his projected time for the Derby would be 2:03.12 on a dry track. Needless to say it would be worst on a sloppy track. No great grandson of the Mr. Prospector has ever sired a derby winner and there have been a litany of them including Empire Maker, Red Bullet, Victory Gallop, Grindstone, Point Given etc. They were all better than Unbridled Song. His projected time for 10F would not result in a victory in any of the last 10 derbies. Nice colt not the 2010 derby winner.

“The filly Devil May Care holding off a flying Homeboykris (from out of the clouds) for the show spot.”

I like the filly and will include her in my bets. However, she has some historic derby negatives and I think she has soundness issues.  Her sires covered 136 mares in 2006 and I have only seen this filly and the sidelined Tampa Derby winner on the track. He must be siring some really fragile horses. A May foal won the 2009 Derby this was 14 year after the last one to win. (Thunder Gulch) May foals rarely win the Derby because of their maturity disadvantage. What are the chances of consecutive derby victories by May foals? Remote at best based on history. Her sire is from the Bold Rule sire line via Seattle Slew/A P Indy. This sire line has produced one winner in the last 30 years i.e., Swale. I think she will run a brave race without winning.

“At the eighth pole it is still Super Saver battling away tenaciously”

This colt had two really tough races coming of a long rest. He had every chance to win the Tampa Bay & AK Derbies and could not sustain his run. Do you really believe an additional furlong will change his fortunes? If I recall his dam was sired by A. P. Indy. Well, if Bluegrass Cat whose dam was sired by A. P. Indy didn’t get it done, I hardly believe SS has a chance of doing it. No A. P Indy mare has produced the winner of a TC race and SS is not some exceptional colt that is likely to get him off zero. His projected time for 10F is 2:02 plus which is better than that of Mission Impazible but way below the projected times for some of the top guns who are projected to record times of 2:00 plus and 2:01 plus.

Since you are a dreamer, let me direct you to a colt that has a similar pedigree profile to your beloved Esky. Eksky’s sire won 9 of 13 starts and was never worst than second. This colt’s sire won 8 of 9 starts and was never worst than second. Esky’s dam was sired by a Triple Crown winner. This colt’s dam was also sired by a TC winner. Now that we have established the similarity in the pedigree profile, let’s turn to the race record. Esky won 4 of 6 starts and was of the board once. This colt won 4 of 7 starts and was of the board once. However, Esky has won the bigger races. In spite of this fact, I think this colt has more positives than Esky. His sire and dam sire won at 10F at Churchill Downs; his sire won the derby on a sloppy track; he won two races on off tracks; he won two races at Churchill Downs. The last time a TC winner was broodmare sire to a derby winner was 44 years ago. Its recurrence is long overdue. If you were of the opinion that Esky would have broken this drought then you should have no problem switching your dream to this colt. His sire and dam sire won 5 of possible 6 TC races. You have left no doubt that you are a dreamer and I think this is the type of horse for dreamers. The dream should be for this colt to run to his pedigree and the rest will be history.

30 Apr 2010 10:27 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Which horse(s) like heavy rain, thunder and lightning? That's your winner. This could even be the first Derby postponement. I'm glad Setsuko isn't there. He's smart enough to race today, the good weather day. I guess he knew what he was doing all along. The question is: How to bet, when to bet with a list that has gotten longer because of the weather. Anything could happen. Even tosses for dry who might like the sloppy slop are back on the list. Whoever it was that said exacta box the field is probably right assuming at least one longshot comes in. Who's the best swimmer? Probably the horse and the jockey need to be strong swimmers. Might see some 85ina50 moves from horses wanting to get back to the barn with screaming fans, thunder, lightning, and knee deep puddles. It's gonna be one tough monkey that wins.

30 Apr 2010 11:15 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Steve

  Superb article-"Mud Bombs" You hit the nail on the head and a home run. The weather is going to be very interesting. Normally I would pass with that kind of weather but I can't. Thanks for all of your great reporting and helping me to gather my thoughts and maintain some sanity. This one could drive you crazy. You are not only a great writer, observer, and reporter but the top psychiatrist in the country. You helped me a lot with this article today. Thanks Doc.

30 Apr 2010 12:37 PM
Gladiator

Here are my picks-

Win- Stately Victor

Place- Ice Box

Show- Mission Impazible

Ps-

I just hit my head falling of the RA bandwagon, so my picks might be jaded.

30 Apr 2010 2:36 PM
Love Hurts

Coldfacts, you're all over the place.Picking Straws should be you're new moniker.Swapping choices as often as Draynay is R-I-D-I-C-U-L-O-U-S!!

30 Apr 2010 3:39 PM
Ranagulzion

COLDFACTS,

Dreams can come true in the case of Mission Impazible winning the Derby with his hot young Jamaican jockey, Rajiv Maragh whom I happen to rate highly, but your halucination about Backtalk may require medical treatment (LOL).  Also you are making a serious miscalculation regarding Super Saver and his jock Calvin Borel. Have fun.

30 Apr 2010 3:49 PM
Vic S - Stately Victor's #1 Fan

Gladiator you amuse me with so many others who are bandwagon jumpers in the truest form.  Just 2 days ago you said Dean's Kitten would win in a romp! Now you say he won't hit the tri?  Real loyalty lol.  You have major commitment issues as do sooooooo many others.  You and all the bandwagon jumpers stay away from my horse! You aren't true fans of him, just a motely crew of people who have no loyalty within them.  So many of you have jumped off horses that you said were sure things and now jump on my horse's bandwagon.  Well, backoff your not allowed on!  Stately Victor is my Derby horse!

30 Apr 2010 5:20 PM
Bluelou

So.....what are your heart, wallet and longshot picks?

Heart: Sidneys Candy

Wallet: American Lion

Longshot: Make Music For Me

30 Apr 2010 6:10 PM
SmoothJazz

The below is who I feel will finish 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the Derby (along with some key information I learned during my analysis of the Field that helped me come to the decision I made regarding 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Place).  I am probably not as knowledgeable as some Posters are on this Forum regarding picking horses.

1st-  American Lion    The Owners of American Lion finally got him off of the synthetic surface in California and onto the dirt when they sent him to the Illinois Derby.  American Lion then proceeded to show that he runs best on dirt.  American Lion has some speed, and his speed should help keep him out of traffic trouble.  American Lion is by Tiznow, and Tiznow was a very "gritty" horse who happened to like the surface at Churchill Downs.  American Lion is a February foal, and therefore, he is one of the older horses in the Derby.  Tiznow colts are known to get better the older they become.  Pedigree wise, American Lion has both In Reality and Seattle Slew on the top part of his Pedigree, and Secretariat on the bottom part of his Pedigree.  In Reality was one of the few male descendents of Man O'War.  American Lion should have no problem with the 1 1/4 Mile distance of the Derby.

2nd-  Ice Box    Ice Box is a closer.  In the Florida Derby, there was a very high pace in the early part of the Florida Derby, and then the race "fell apart" in front of Ice Box.   Ice Box proceeded to close strong and take advantage of the race "falling apart" in front of him.  There will be a significant pace at the beginning of the Kentucky Derby, and the race will probably have some "falling apart."  This will aide Ice Box and his style of racing.  Pedigree wise, Ice Box has Secretariat and Seattle Slew on the top part of his Pedigree.  Ice Box's Pedigree is unique because he also has Secretariat on the bottom part of his Pedigree.  Ice Box should have no problem with the 1 1/4 Mile distance of the Derby.  

3rd-  Stately Victor    Stately Victor comes into the Derby with a very good Form.  During the Bluegrass Stakes, Stately Victor showed a good "closing kick."  Stately Victor finished the last part of the Bluegrass Statkes very strongly.  Pedigree wise, Stately Victor is by Ghostzapper out of a Dynaformer Mare.  Therefore, upfront in his Pedigree, Stately Victor has a lot of Speed on the top part of his Pedigree, and a lot of Stamina on the lower part of his Pedigree.  Additionally, Stately Victor has In Reality on both the top part and the bottom part of his Pedigree.  Stately Victor should have no problem with the 1 1/4 Mile distance of the Derby.                            

30 Apr 2010 9:11 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Zookeeper

  All you can do is play it the way you see it, and not worry about anyone else's picks. With the rain coming I kept adding horses so I just went back to my picks of a week ago and will just take a shot with what I originally thought. I'm losing every photo this year. I think it is about 10 now including today- Evening Jewel, and Pleasant Prince in FL Derby, and Schoolyard Dreams in TB Derby. In ALL of them I thought I had won the photo. Setsuko looked pretty good pre-race today. I feel certain that he is a dirt horse, and might be a turf horse too but I know he needs longer than 1 1/16. That choice of race was puzzling to me. But Belmont here we come. I would run him in The Preakness to. I don't think he got enough out of his race today. And I still believe he's a future star. He'll be a really good 4yo. I ended up using Blind Luck also in the DD but I only have 4 horses to go with it and won't be getting the Evening Jewel payouts.

30 Apr 2010 9:22 PM
Ethan

Who are you talking about, Coldfacts?

I'm Sorry if that is an ignorant question

30 Apr 2010 11:42 PM
Coldfacts

Love Hurts,

You must be hurting and it is unfortunate that I am a victim of your pain. I seem to get always get attacked for reason unknown. I have not picked a horse. Can you specify where I have definitively stated that a particular horse is my derby pick? I just mention a few I like based on certain factors. As I always state, my posts can be ignored especially if they are deemed provocative. In a derby field of 20 horses everybody is entitled to select one or a group of horses for wagering purposes. With horses shipping in from different locations and who have raced on synthetic and turf courses, it is impossible to select a single horse. There are just too many unknowns.  Your post would be more meaningful if you simply asked for my final list. I posted some details about Backtalk prior to his horrible performance in the Ill Derby. The more I review his pedigree the more I think he is ideally bred for 10F. His PP does inspire confidence but I am prepared to give him another chance. Will he be the only horse I put in my wagers? Certainly not! The Kentucky Derby is an event and strange thing can happen. Sometime I think Churchill Down changes the DNA of some horses. A colt that has a 10F pedigree that works 1:09 plus close to a race and runs badly would be given another chance. You are at liberty to exclude him from your bets if my posts offend you so much.

There was no need for the remarks contained in your post. In spite of the fact that love hurts, this should not stop you from continually showing love. Peace!

01 May 2010 12:21 AM
Zookeeper

Dr Drunkinbum,

That was a killer photo finish in the Oaks. I was screaming my head off because I only had Blind Luck in the Oaks/Derby double. I had the exacta, it paid pretty good. Any payout is better than none for me as long as I get more back than I put in.

Thank you for the encouragement on the Derby. I'll wait until morning before putting my bets together. The weather may not turn out as bad as we feared.

Setsuko's owners (same as Interactif's) make puzzling decisions about their horses. They run Interactif through the KD preps, he trains well at CD, they pull him out of the Derby.(???) Then they decide to run Setsuko on the turf at a distance that is too short for him. (???) I can't figure them out. Now, I hope they wait for the Belmont. There's not too many horses who can run at 1 1/2 miles and win... I think Setsuko can.

Ethan,

I think Coldfacts is talking about Backtalk. His sire, Smarty Jones, won the Derby and so did his dam's sire, Affirmed.

01 May 2010 12:43 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

You should have learnt by now that I am not one to take lightly. Before the LA Derby I told you that Rule was damaged goods after his effort in the FL derby and you shouldturn you attention to MI.. Well, Rule was not entered in the derby because he was not training well. I told you the Big A track would hurt Esky. Well he did not train very well after the Wood. Do you realize that Backtalk is a better bred colt than MI? Are you aware he has more seasoning? He has not been training at CD so there are not flashy works to report. Backtalk is a sound, well bred colt with ability. IF I GAMBLE THAT HE WILL PERFORM IN THE DERBY, HOW IS IT DIFFERENT FROM GABLING THAT MI WILL PERFORM? You and I will be gambling that both horses will perform to the best of their ability and we are prepared to accept the results. Good luck with MI and may Todd finally get off  the dreaded ZERO.

01 May 2010 12:48 AM
mickey101

coldfacts-thougt you did not like the raise a native , this year , he's all over BACKTALK'S pedigree?

01 May 2010 1:10 AM
Slew

Now we're talking about a tornado watch.  Yikes...hurricanes and monsoons...now tornadoes not to mention flash floods.  What else?  Vic S...have been with you since the Blue Grass....save room in the saddle for me.  Stately Victor is now Jeff Seigel's #1.  Very sad about RA..still thinking last year's Woodward did her in.  Hopefully she'll still come back.  But she still doesn't give up, and it was a heck of a finish.

01 May 2010 7:41 AM
moodygirl

Coldfacts, who is "this colt." Or are you just going to fill in the blank after the race? Good strategy.

01 May 2010 8:27 AM
Slew

One off side comment...checking out bloodlines...this Derby is mostly one of Seattle Slew vs Mr. Prospector.  A few have both lines.

Throw in a dash of Affirmed, Ghostzapper, Secretariat, and Northern Dancer.  Wow...It should be good.  Good luck, everyone.

01 May 2010 8:53 AM
marktoothaker

Steve,

Here goes sloppy track but best value in years if you can find the winning ticket. Going to go with Awesome Act and box him with Lookin at Lucky and Ice Box. Best of luck to you today and love your blog.

http://www.thederbydream.com/

01 May 2010 9:10 AM
Ranagulzion

COLDFACTS,

Its going to be a triple breakthrough for Todd Pletcher, Rajiv Maragh and Unbridled Song in this 136th renewal of the Kentucky Derby.  Take that to the bank Bro.

You're a good sport as usual ...but you lose this time(LOL).

01 May 2010 9:18 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Zookeeper

  Both Setsuko and Interactif need a new owner. I agree with your comments. Maybe we'll win big Derby Day and can buy them. Good Luck !!! I had the guaranteed Double with singling Doubles Partner, but Blind Luck was too low a payout, then I had it the other way guaranteed with Evening Jewel only and all the Derby horses. So I missed out both ways. Last year I won most of the photos, this year I've lost all of them. They're getting me back with the Even-Steven rule.

01 May 2010 9:52 AM
Bluelou

A lot of people like to attack Coldfacts.  Personally, I don't see why.  He provides us with more pedigree facts and angles than any poster.  He states his opinions with confidence.  He purposely (?) omits horses names at times, challenging us to do a little research on our own, which can ONLY be beneficial to us.  He leans heavily on pedigree when making his picks.  And if he throws a dash of "I told you so" at us after the fact?  Well....let he who is without sin cast the first stone, I say.

Thanks Coldfacts...I appreciate the time and knowledge.  Good luck today.

01 May 2010 10:13 AM
Batty

ColdFacts-

Why are you giving out my longshot play?!!!  lol.

BackTalk shoul not be taken lightly.

01 May 2010 10:22 AM
El Kabong

Good Luck All,

I am on the record for Super Saver pulling this off for Todd. I have him boxed with Sidney's Candy and Lucky. Gettem Calvin.

01 May 2010 3:29 PM
Zookeeper

Dr Drunkinbum,

I ended up with a 6 horse ExBox: 1,3,6,10,11,14. I tried to put a Tri together but couldn't do it. I also have my birthday bet: 4,7 ExBox and my Oaks/Derby double. That's all I'm going to do. Good luck today! May all your photo finishes be winning ones from now on!

01 May 2010 3:50 PM
JerseyBoy

I'm singing in the rain

Just singing in the rain

What a glorious feelin'

I'm happy again

I'm laughing at clouds

Singing Super

Singing Saver

In the rain.

You read it here first

01 May 2010 6:42 PM
JerseyBoy

My friends:

I am sorry if my touting and analysis contributed to the low starting price. But I had no other means of sharing my analysis.

I backed the Super in the Future wager.

01 May 2010 6:57 PM
redandblacksilks

I begin to understand why those little men ride horses instead of going to college.  No brains!  Once again they gave Borel the rail.  Martinez actually pulled his horse off the rail to LET Borel through.  Lookin At Lucky got butchered in this race at the start when 2,3,&4 went over on him and drove him into the rail and then again later on. He still managed to finish 6th which, with his trouble, is saying a lot.  I'm beginning to seriously question the integrity of the sport.

01 May 2010 7:45 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Zookeeper

  I got one exacta but missed the one I bet bigger-Super and Paddy-I had 4 exactas with that combo. I had a stupid sleep dream last night where Backtalk and American Lion were battling it out and Backtalk beat him so I had to bet that dumb exacta too eventhough I thought Backtalk was terrible. I still think American Lion is going to do well in the future. I hope he isn't one of the ones that is all washed up because of The Derby. Next year I'm waiting for the final pps !!!!! I over studied this year and confused the issue, added more horses. I would have done better a few weeks ago. At least my tosses turned out to really be tosses except for Nobles Promise. He ran well. So it's nice to be right about most of the tosses anyway.  The biggest dissapointments were Vic and American Lion. Looking forward to seeing Pleasant Prince in The Preakness, and Setsuko in The Belmont. I still say they should have been in The Derby instead of Homeboy and a few others. Super Saver is a Triple Crown threat because he has great stamina and speed. I have no doubt he can get a mile and a half.

01 May 2010 9:33 PM
Ranagulzion

COLDFACTS,

Your bragging rights stunt with Backtalk backfired big time this time (LOL) ...where did he finish?

Well Mission Impazible didn't make the grade either but that's a minor setback for me since Super Saver was always ...always in my top three ...and should really have inherited the top spot with the withdrawal due to injury of Eskendereya but I wavered because MI seemed to be improving more rapidly during training.  Anyway its HOORAY!!! for Mr Todd Pletcher and the Winstar breeders of Super Saver (whose pedigree you totally misread ...including the Raise A Native factor).  It is a pity that Maria's Mon had such a short career at stud, having now thrown Super Saver in addition to Monarchos to win the Derby.  I think that the RAN line running through Majistic Prince (now three Derby winnners) should experience some revival with Monarchos (underrated as a sire) showing that he can carry on the prowess of the line (Win Willy and Informed Decision are examples) and Super Saver laying the foundation to be a great successor of his sire.

There are a few "I told you so" outcomes like Noble's Promise not staying the trip, Sidney's Candy being beaten by his effort to overcome a wide trip plus tinkering with his running style while making his first dirt start in the KENTUCKY DERBY, Lookin At Lucky not being fast enough or stamina laiden enough to circle the field and hit the board from the #1 post position.

The weather also made it difficult and I guess that Coldfacts would have predicted that Derby would not be run in the slop two years in a row (although he didn't actuall make that call the trajectory of his arguments would have also gotten that one wrong).  What a great rider Calvin Borel is.  Put him on a good horse and he is so dependable.  I think that trainers might start jostling to line him up for their Kentucky Derby prospects from early since he virtually "own" Churchill Downs.  That "ownership" plus the "BO-rail" reputation is the stuff of legends.  This jock has Hall of Famer written all over him, and all fans should be grateful to be seeing him ride, be so effervescent as well as humble and candid in his public reactions in our generation.  Calvin Borel is an outstanding ambassador for the Sport of Kings ...a truly admirable and personable professional.  Success didn't come easy or early for him but his story of diligence and learning from his teachers is so inspiring.

Todd Pletcher didn't "clean house" (a very tall order made more difficult in the slop) but he shook that "Orangutan" off his back in no uncertain manner.  I'm very happy for him.  My sympathies go out to Mike Relve who, being an honorable man, will not be heard from on these blogs for three months (self imposed exile if Pletcher won the Derby). Condolences ...may his posts Rest in Peace.

It will be very interesting to see if DRAYNAY comes for his fill of Crow after his "Grade One" stars Noble's Promise, Lookin At Lucky and Dublin fail to sparkle ...we are not holding our breaths, are we?

Looking forward to Gun Bows reflections also ...for different reasons of course.

As far as Forbideen Apple is concerned we already know what to expect / or not to expect (Awesome Act ...???)

01 May 2010 9:37 PM
EL Kabong

JerseyBoy, Trebloc and Mr. Haskin

Congrats. Hope you lost your voice like I did down that stretch. What a classy horse and one of a kind Jockey. Todd played this horse perfectly. Super Saver is at peak level and still fresh. On to Pimlico for some more action at the window. Looked at film and Ice Box ran a great race. He will be tough in next two legs of the Crown. Till then, three cheers for the Cajun and a tip of the hat to a pinpoint perfect training effort from Mr. Pletcher's team.

01 May 2010 9:37 PM
tcc

A little bit of pre Derby news.

There is a pattern associated with the RAN sire line that has convinced me that it will not produce the winner of 2010 KD. The 1980, 1990 and 2000 Kentucky Derbies were won by horses from the RAN sire line. Those years represented the start of a decade. What is interesting is the fact that the winners of Kentucky Derbies that closed the decades i.e., 1979, 1989 and 1999 were not for the RAN sires line. So a pattern that has emerged that is clear. Each time the RAN sire line wins the Derby that opens a decade; the winners that close the previous decade are always from other sire line. The RAN sire line in all its dominance has never had a winner the close a decade followed by one that win the derby that opens a decade.

Coldfacts 27 Apr 2010 12:51 AM

Bloodline Bob:

Did you want to explain your 1997 sire line? Just asking,but noticed it didn't work in this year's Derby.

01 May 2010 11:03 PM
zarvona

MAY 2nd HEADLINE

  " "Noble's Promise" Turns the Tables and Fulfills Life Long Teenage Dream and Finally Defeats "Lookin at Lucky" by a Half Length!!!!""

... unfortunately, for both that was a battle for 5th & 6th in the Kentucky Derby!!!  

01 May 2010 11:32 PM
zarvona

PS Congrats to TODD and connections, but for a moment there I was watching "Candy Ride" all over again!! Hope "Sidney's Candy" isn't hurt!!

01 May 2010 11:33 PM
X-ray

Email # 3

Hi Steve,

If you recall I was big on Super Saver as you were in the beginning of the year but stayed with him as I had him well in pool# 3 at 35-1 with exacta boxes with ice box and many other horses as well which paid really well.

If you check my listing I submitted on my derby predictions I had Super Saver to win , Ice Box second and Awesome Act third ext.

I now pick winner 6 of last 8 years.

However, I beleive Ice Box could of won with a better trip and will be tough moving forward. I'm not suprised with Ice Box performance base on how fast he closed WITHOUT changing leads in his prior race. LAL's troubled trip was predictable as I related him to Dollar Bill of years ago. Awesome Act was a disappointment and not sure why as it was hard to review his race. Had a nice triple box with Paddy but missed out on supper fector which I had boxed Super Saver, Ice Box and Awesome Act with the field.

Very Best...Look forward to Preakness........Xray

02 May 2010 12:39 AM
Trebloc

How cool was that race!  Still drinking Bud and smoking cigars!  

02 May 2010 12:51 AM
Slew

Coldfacts...hmmm...you thought the AP Indy line didn't have a chance.  Time to put away the facts and just take the horses as they are.  Super Saver/Ice Box...AP Indy exacta!(Seattle Slew AND Mr. Prospector)!  Paddy O'Prado..Northern Dancer.

Colmel...2 out of 3 ain't bad.  

Best jockey...Calvin Borel.

Best horse..Ice Box.  

Stately Victor really tried several times to get through the mob...but gave it up around the 1/8th pole.  What a race!

Lookin at Lucky..lots of heart..NO luck.  He had a really rough trip.

02 May 2010 7:41 AM
Trebloc

Voice is still gone!

02 May 2010 8:43 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Preakness Possibles?

Super Saver

Ice Box

Pleasant Prince

Make Music For Me

American Lion

Nobles Promise

Dublin

Stately Victor

   Who else???? Lucky needs a rest. Sidney needs to go back to Pro Ride for now? Or was it the wet track? I don't know about Paddy on dry dirt. Conveyance needs to be a miler. Dean's Kitten-back to turf. The rest aren't good enough from The Derby. Although a few could blame the off track and try The Preakness like Line Of David. Are they already lining up to grab Borel for next year's Derby? Even without a horse, sign him to a contract for the barn?

02 May 2010 10:20 AM
Bloodline Bob

Tcc,  Eskendreya's sire(Giant's Causeway) was born in 1997. I'm sure if he ran it would of worked this year. If you take the age of the previous 135 years of the Ky.Derby winner's sire and average that out it comes out to approximately 13 years old. So, being that this was 2010 I subtracted the 13 years from 2010 and that is how I came out with 1997. The alphabet system seemed to work better this year with the first letter of the winner being "S". That is the 19th time in 136 years that the winner's name began with the letter "S". The letter "E" hasn't had a winner since 1918 + 1904. VERY INTERESTING that "E"skendreya + "E"ndorsement were both scratched at the last moment before the Derby and the letter "I"(Ice Box) only has 1 win(1957). Well, there are many different roads to the winner of the Ky.Derby and I'll see which one I take in 2011. BTW, the fourth place horse's(Make Music For Me) sire(BERSTEIN) was born in 1997.

02 May 2010 12:33 PM
JerseyBoy

EL Kabong:

I am still singing.

Bloodline Bob:

The only pedigree statistic I find notable after this year's Derby is that Maria's Mon is the only sire to have produced more than one Ky Derby winner in the last 20 years.

02 May 2010 2:18 PM
Zookeeper

It's going to take me a few days to digest this Derby. I'm taking notes on all the mistakes I made so that hopefully I don't repeat them in the Preakness, the Belmont and next year's Derby.

Trebloc, you're already on the list of people to listen to. Mr. Haskin was, is and will stay, since he had all the trifecta horses included in his top ten list. The superfecta horse Make Music for Me was this year shocker for me.

In spite of all the agonizing I did before the race, I really enjoyed the Derby and all the pageantry leading up to it. I never get tired of it. Congratulations all around to the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers. They all ran amazing races but nothing surpasses what Calvin Borel did with Super Saver. It took Calvin to get the jinx off of Todd Pletcher's back. What a relief!!!

Dr Drunkinbum,

Congratulations on you winning exacta. I missed the boat completely. My 6 horses were: 1,3,6,10,11,14. Notice how "brilliantly" I skipped over the 2 and 4??? I'm not moving on to the Preakness until I determine what I was thinking and why. That should take me a whole week. The following week, I'll concentrate on not repeating my mistakes. That will be the hardest part, as always. lol!  

02 May 2010 2:56 PM
Destin

I've loved all the pedigree angles this year. But thats what those just are, pedigree angles, nothing more than guesses. I've cashed big win tickets almost ever year i play the Derby simply on one fact, the horse that trains the best over this race track. That is the way to play this race, not through pedigree angles, bet the horse that is training lights out going into the race, Just like Haskin said " Super Saver has been training the best of anyone here"

02 May 2010 2:57 PM
Vic S - Stately Victor's #1 Fan

Slew, I know you are on the Stately Victor bandwagon since the Bluegrass it was all the last minute jumpers who made me upset lol.  I'm still confident he'll win the Preakness or Belmont whichever he enters, he had a trip from heck.

02 May 2010 4:18 PM
tcc

Bloodline Bob:

The sire year sounds interesting.

What I've been doing is using certain catagories and give points to each horse in each catagory, maximum total of 6 points.

The horse's that came up with 6 points were as follow's.

Lookin at Lucky

Super Saver

Jackson Bend

Mission Impazible

Therefore it narrowed the down the field to just 4 horses. Just had to find out who had a good chance to win from those 4 horse's.

02 May 2010 5:33 PM
Bloodline Bob

On Feb. 23,2010 I did say that Lookin at Lucky would not win the 2010 Ky.Derby.

02 May 2010 8:12 PM
zarvona

The Top 6 Derby finishers still deserve future consideration...

Super Saver from the "presser" position won...nice ride... Peaked at the right time…[[ Makes me wonder about Mine that Bird who never won a race after and not many before]] …Borel may have made the difference... [[ WHEN ARE THE Jockeys ever GOING TO LEARN TO "SHUT BORAIL OFF THE RAIL"???!!! They let him beat them year in year out ... what is that, 3 times in the last 4 years now???]] Don't see a triple crown winner here!

"Ice Box" NOW twice from the extreme back of the pack... jockey Lezcano just needs to keep this horse a little closer earlier in the race... PROBABLY RAN THE BEST RACE OF THE DAY and LOOKED the BEST HORSE OF THE DAY [[LOOKS to me like the Belmont HORSE to beat. I hope he skips the PREAKNESS!!  19 back to 2nd by 2 !!! ...  just start the run 15 back instead of 19 back next time and see what happens!!!

Paddy O’Prado ran a great steady race just outrun in the end! 13th to 1st to 3rd!!! Showed his speed is not compromised by any surface again, including a sloppy track!!

Could be tough to beat if he shows up at COLONIAL DOWNS TURF!! Although he like Noble's Promise has no finishing kick... he has to just NOT be outrun!! That’s twice now!! no friggin closin kick but he is as fast as anyone out there!!

Make Music for ME was the absolute Biggest STUNNER SHOCK of the day!!! I never thought he was bred for more than a mile!  Keep an eye on this one!! 20th to 4th and only 4 1/4 back!!!

Noble's Promise ran a great race as another "presser" and actually led just before the turn!!!  and showed distance is NOT an issue, the issue there is still that this horse possesses NO CLOSING PUNCH!! Again!!! ...but a very steady eddie and a good and  reasonably fast horse!!! He however NEEDS A CLOSIN KICK much LIKE O’PRADO does!!!

And Lookin at Lucky falling back to 18th!!! just needed a different gate, and a different start, and a different surface!!  He was doing just fine coming along at the end on a terrible track!! But, he too should have moved earlier... he had plenty of horse left... He should remain a future factor!!!

Maybe Sidney's Candy was hurt? Maybe he just ran into some "Quick Sand" and said, 'boss, I ainta runnin in that sh***'! cause we all know he can go 1 1/8 and bred to go forever, so either something bad happened, or possibly the jockey pulled him out! Still awaiting news, have seen or heard NOTHING! Didn't like the fact that he tried to stay with Conveyance who everyone knew was going to burn out and never going to finish!!! but once in 2nd he certainly had the option to slow down and then come on again later once the pack had caught up!! Maybe that was the strategy and the horse got confused when asked to slow up and took that as some clue to quit, I don’t know…....HE overcame his gate position with little difficulty... I did think he would have more likely been 5th or 6th at the first turn and not 2nd, but that was a fine place for his running style and he had no mud being thrown in his face?... I just do not get totally quitting before reaching a 1/16 !!! I DONT GET IT !!! It was either illness, injury, equipment problem? or the surface, or a failure in communication with the jockey, because we have all seen this monster go much farther than when he quit!!! I can't believe he was burnt up after 5 furlongs, and if he was, then that was the JOCKEYs fault for taking him out that fast!!

THE REST of the DERBY horses basically SUCKED, although Stately Victor was actually going forward though out!

AND, nice Ride BY HOMEBOYKRIS  ... He moved forward a little behind the horses who had no intention of getting out... drifted BACKWARDS to 20th!! and them ran down the four horses down who absolutely pulled out and quit and were headed back to barn!

Which actually were much the same as the trips among most of the other ‘pull-out quitters’ he beat!! accept for Sidney's Candy!!

  25-1 ???? This horse should have gone off at 500-1 !!!  WHO IN THE County BET ON THIS Horse ??? Derek Jeter and the rest of the Yankees?? or the Dodgers ???~~  

 Dublin and Devil's May Care at shorter distances are still obvious players. We knew the distance was a problem for Dublin... We DID NOT KNOW THAT ABOUT THE FILLY !

Well Pletcher is off the “schnider”, can't say that YET about “Storm CAT” losing Esky and then having Sidney's Candy not deliver was a let down for he, ((ME)) 'Blue Grass Cat', and all the rest!!

  See ya after the Preakess Draw!! Hope Steve keeps his Blog OPEN!!!

02 May 2010 11:07 PM
zarvona

Zookeeper

  I empathize and feel for you... I hit the Oaks triple, the Pool 2 Super Saver future bet, and the Derby exacta, but lost money overall over the two days!! being mostly where I bet (or over on Sidney's Candy) and bet the other races with mild to little success!!! And, because the FRIGGIN DERBY exacta paid next to nothing, ((btw that being At the track!! where it PAID GREAT IN THE FUTURE POOLS where ESKY was still a consideration!!!)), where I feel like I either shared that exacta payoff with every better in the country or where some bettor bet some huge amount on that particular exact bringing the payoff way down deflating the payoff value!!! I WAS SHOCKED for me to SEE A DERBY EXACTA NOT including the FAVORITE OR THE 3rd FAVORITE pay SO D****** LITTLE!!! Hell, someone bet money on 50-1 HOMEBOYKRIS to drive his OFF odds to 25-1 ??? [[WHOEVER THAT WAS????]] Thusly, there were that many silly bets and that much money in the pool,??? SO HOW DID THE DERBY EXACTA PAYOFF BECOME SO SMALL???

I REALLY  DONT GET IT !!!

02 May 2010 11:23 PM
Billy's Empire

What a SUPER DAY!!

Going out in the mornings to watch them work, especially on the mud, helped out a lot!! The best works of the week on the mud were who?

Ice Box

Paddy O Prado

Super Saver

Lookin at Lucky

Noble' Promise

that was my 5 horse tri box!!

03 May 2010 9:43 AM
Zookeeper

Billy's Empire,

Your comments all through the week before the Derby were very much appreciated. Wish I had paid closer attention. With so many opinions posted on these blogs, the people who are there on the ground and reporting on what they ACTUALLY see should carry more weight than those who are posting what they think or wish will happen. For me THAT is lesson #1.

Lesson #2. Don't expect a miracle to come to the rescue of a horse with a disastrous post position. I knew and I posted that I couldn't think of a worse post for Lucky and I included him in my bet anyways. (This doesn't apply if Calvin Borel is the jockey)lol!

Lesson #3. Don't let the name of the horse influence you in ANY way. Ice Box and Super Saver don't know they have less than majestic names and they run according to their form NOT to the lack of a dignified name. I can't believe that it took my 12th Derby to teach me this very easily understandable concept. DUH!!!

Zarvona,

Thank you for your empathy. Slow learners need all the kindness they can get!  :)

03 May 2010 10:56 AM
Ranagulzion

ZARVONA,

Cheer up friend.  Its not that difficult to figure out.  A sloppy track is a slower surface and when the speed horses travel 22 and change for the first quarter and 46 flat for the half mile and 1:10 and change for the 3/4 mile, they are sizzling Baby.  Sidney's Candy got fried, kentucky style, in the mud, plain and simple.  Indeed he might have been confused by a number of factors, such as the dirt, the slop, "my ole kentucky home", seeing the rear-end of a grey horse IN FRONT of him for the first time (the saying goes that grey horses grab the attention of other horses) and being passed in a flash by stamina-defficient Noble's Promise before turning for home.  That's a whole lot of new stuff to throw at a 3YO colt from California.  I don't think that you should speculate on injury or blame jockey Joe Talamo.  The Derby is one very tough race, especially for horses that are trying certain innovations in their running strategies for the first time, whether it be surface, equipment, jockey or running style.  Tell me this Zarvona, how does a horse with very good tactical speed not have a closing kick? My understanding is that either going too fast too early or lack of stamina in a quality field can blunt finishing speed, thusly  (I love this expression of yours) Paddy O'Prado and Noble's Promise faltering should not be a head-scratcher.  How can you say that NP has no distance issues when for the 3rd straight time (never mind all the excuses) he has been "tagged" in the final furlong racing beyond 8 1/2 furlongs?ZOOKEEPER,

I hope that you didn't fall for the "nutty professor" Coldfacts' Backtalk stunt or wrote off Super Saver because of "the professor's" negative prognostications about the Raise a Native line in this year's Derby.  Coldfacts is great at isolating historical trends but you have to be careful about his forecasts and his interpretation of the data my friend.  He gets it right sometimes but he does go off the deep end at other times in search of "cheaply acquired" bragging rights ...by his own confession (Erbeia in the San Felipe and Backtalk in the Derby).

Nevertheless it is all good fun except when it hurts you in the pocket (LOL).

Contrary to what some people think I believe that Super Saver has a fair shot at the Tripe Crown.  He is peaking at the right time, is bred to get the distance of the Belmont (does anybody want to challenge me on that?) and his tactical speed and closing kick plus the red-hot Mr Calvin Borel in the saddle make him very formidable indeed.  Ice Box looks imposing in the Belmont if he skips the Preakness (in which he probably has a better shot on a dry track).  Unless he is fresh going into the Belmont that closing kick will not work as that big sandy track at Belmont Park going 12 furlongs is more suitable to steady grinder types with tactical speed and stamina.

CARLOS IN CALI,

Please come out of hiding my friend and celebrate with us the thrill of Super Saver's victory and the agony of your Derby defeat(LOL).  Mike Relva is a bit lonely right now but I know for sure that he doesn't want you for company (LOL) ...Rachel perhaps but not you Bro. so come on out and give us your reflections.

03 May 2010 11:28 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Steve

  I'm sure you remember this- "Where's My Maypo !!!!!" The cereal commercial with the little kid yelling for his Maypo cereal. Well that's how I feel waiting for your Derby wrap-up article.

03 May 2010 1:13 PM
Zookeeper

Ranagulzion,

No, I didn't have Backtalk on any of my bets. I only have myself to blame for making the wrong choices when it came down to shrinking my Top Ten list to an affordable proposition for an exacta box bet.

I enjoy Coldfacts' comments. I learn a lot from him about pedigree and racing history. The little war of words between you two is very entertaining. Statistics in horse racing follow the same path as everywhere else. They can be made to support any position, but they are interesting.

Mike Relva,

If you are reading this, I'm very sorry you made that promise and that you are keeping it.  :(

03 May 2010 2:27 PM
Zookeeper

Mr. Haskin,

I second Dr Drunkinbum's call for a Derby wrap-up article. You have spoiled us!!! Now, we are posting aimlessly, waiting for your input! What happened? Did you drown in Louisville? Did you get kidnapped by gypsies? Whatever you're working on, it's going to be a "doozie"! Or should I say a "Borel Ride"?

03 May 2010 2:37 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Zookeeper

   Now you're going to have all of the gypsies mad at you !!!! I think they should give Mike Relva early parole for good behavior. He didn't even make a bet. It was self imposed. He's in the kitchen now peeling potatoes, and doing a very good job of it. I just found a list I made two weeks ago buried in papers. If I would have followed it for The Derby I would have won a fortune. Next year is no lists, no nothing until the final pps so I don't confuse myself.

03 May 2010 4:31 PM
tcc

Conveyance (like him that much).

TerriV 28 Apr 2010 6:26 PM

Did this horse show anything about that high alitude theory?

03 May 2010 7:22 PM
Slew

After a "bang up" ride, apparently Stately Victor's next start will not be in the Preakness, but in the Belmont.  Other horses looking to the Belmont are New Madrid, Uptowncharleybrown, Devil May Care and Alphie's Bet.

04 May 2010 4:52 AM
Bloodline Bob

Tell me when you want the "alphabet" winners of the Preakness. What letter won the most Preakness's?

04 May 2010 9:01 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

People don't have to worry about people expressing their opinions hurting the Derby. It's popularity is continuing to increase with the public. It's a disgrace to racing, The Derby, The Triple Crown and the breeding industry that Homeboykris was in and Pleasant Prince wasn't. Some parameters must be set. You don't think the owners of Pleasant Prince and Setsuko with legitimate contenders deserved a shot at the money a Derby win would bring to breeding fees? Homeboykris had no business being in The Derby with a ridulous foundation. I don't think Backtalk should have been in either because his races leading up to The Derby were so weak and he wasn't showing any posiblity of getting a win. A few others were obvious tosses too but did earn their way in. You don't just earn your way in by having enough in graded earnings. You earn your way in by being ready to race in one of the most demanding and grueling races on earth. Homeboykris did not earn his way in. I can't even imagine why a trainer or owner would think that they have the right to train a horse into the Derby with one of the weakest racing foundations in history. Luckily the horse survived but I bet he's not happy about it either.

04 May 2010 9:17 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Steve Cauthen-50 years old. I still picture him as kid with a face that always looked freshly washed with strong soap. That was a feel good article by Haskin as most of his are. It really captured the essence of Derby 2010. Despite my grumblings I am very happy for the Pletcher barn. I like the extra insights we got into Borel and Lisa, and the Pletcher barn, and the thoughts of Todd Pletcher's Dad, and the WinStar trials and tribulations. No one can write like Steve Haskin and so beautifully capture the moment. The synopsis of the race was the best I've read and now I can visualize it so much better. The Derby-No DQ's there, and the riders know it and aren't afraid to bully their way through, especially early in the race. Do they really have a choice? It's crowded out there. Now we see which horses survived with great races ahead of them and which will never want to run again.

04 May 2010 10:24 AM
Slew

Dr Drinkinbum:  too many good spirits on Oaks Day?  Setsuko did not even finish in the $$ (4th)when Doubles Partner blew by everyone in the American Turf Stakes, Race #10.  Maybe, like Dave in Dixie, he just didn't earn his way into the Derby.  Make Music For Me was the last horse to get in for the draw, and he finished 4th in the Derby.  He certainly earned the right to be there.  And you do, most certainly, earn your way in by graded stakes earnings.

04 May 2010 10:45 AM
Greg J.

X-Ray,

     On Awesome Act's performance in the Derby, Finishing in 19th place and 61 lengths back?  He was injured during the race and that explains his poor showing, Hope he heals up and returns to the track down the road...

04 May 2010 11:02 AM
Zookeeper

Mr Haskin,

It finally came, your recap of the Derby was worth the wait! You have a knack for bringing out little tidbits other writers don't know about or fail to report.

Who else would tell us about "Calvin's trying to die in there" after riding the race following the Derby? No one!

The fact that Super Saver's connections considered him the "least ratable" of the WinStar horses was also a revelation to me. I was under the impression that Rule was. Either I missed that information or I did not retain it, but in any case, it gave me an even better appreciation of what Calvin Borel accomplished with this colt. The quote from his agent: "He teaches them what he wants them to learn." also opened my eyes to the fact that Calvin is not only an exceptional jockey but also an accomplished horseman.

We all know about Borel's work ethics and how he always honors his commitments. What we didn't know was the price he sometimes pays for his dedication. Your reporting of his wife's statement: "He thinks he's invincible, that he's made of iron." gave us a glimpse of what it's like to be in Calvin's zone. Priceless!!!

I can go on and on about the excellence of your article but a "critique" is not what I'm trying to accomplish. I simply want to express my gratitude for having you as our eyes & ears in a world that is closed to most of us. You get close to the action and the people involved in it and with your words, you give us a chance to be part of the "behind the scene" world of horse racing at its highest level. Thank you!

04 May 2010 12:00 PM
Zookeeper

Dr Drunkinbum,

It is true that a few of the horses who entered the gate in the KD did not belong there. But it is difficult to determine who these horses are before the race is actually run. Case in point: Make Music for Me who barely squeaked in there and to whom I gave little chance (if any) of being competitive. He surprised the heck out of me by coming in 4th. Even Homeboykris, in spite of his apparent lack of preparation, came in ahead of Awesome Act, one of the highly regarded colts before this year's Derby.

What I'm getting at is that we never know, in advance, who belongs and who doesn't. Mine That Bird certainly proved that last year, although I agree that his preparation was superior to that of Homeboykris' this year, very few people regarded him as a legitimate contender BEFORE the race. To this day, some clamor that he never won another race last year, proving that (in their mind) he STILL did not belong. They conveniently ignore his excellent showing in the two remaining TC races. lol!

04 May 2010 2:13 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Slew and Zookeeper

  I never said a word about Make Music For Me not deserving to be in the Derby. He deserved to be in there. I've really only said that Homeboykris shouldn't have been in The Derby. Others that I didn't expect to do well still earned there way into The Derby and proved for the most part that they had little chance to win, but that is irrelevant, they did earn their way in. Most years in the past, horses that ran terrible leading up to The Derby like Backtalk would not be entered in The Derby despite having had the graded earnings. Nobody in their right mind would enter a horse in The Derby with the lack of races that Homeboy had and expect to train him into condition to do well in a race like that. Step aside and let someone more deserving enter. I'm not the only that has said that Homeboykris didn't belong, and there are also writers that have said Backtalk didn't belong because he was running so poorly. The Belmont will tell us where Setsuko is, not a mile and sixteenth turf race. Despite the fact that I love Setsuko, I singled Doubles Partner in the Daily Double in that race. I knew he was the horse to beat and had good odds. And he looked phenominal pre-race. Look at who Doubles Partner had been running against. What Setsuko did in that race Friday has nothing to do with what he would have done in The Derby. I already knew Setsuko was in the wrong race in that turf race and had no intention of bettting on him. He is a mile and a quarter plus dirt horse. And I totally disagree that the only way you earn your way in is with Graded Earnings. If that was the case then why was Lookin At Lucky running in preps as a 3yo? He already had the earnings. Because Baffert is still the best at preparing a horse to run in that grueling race and knowsmwhat a horse needs to be prepared. It is a safety issue too. I would even go so far as to say that throwing Homeboy in that race was cruel and unusual punishment.

04 May 2010 8:12 PM
Slew

And yet Homeboykris still managed to finish 16th, ahead of favorites Sidney's Candy, Line of David, and Awesome Act  I believe that Make Music for Me, who was the last in, was still 3 steps ahead of Setsuko in that inglorious food chain.  Do I personally feel Homeboykris should have been in?  No!  But he earned in; it's over. Next up..the Preakness.  Can Borel do it again...maybe.  

And Dr. D...after watching that 20 horse stampede, are you a little relieved that 85ina50 wasn't there?  Now go back and find that lovely sense of humor to which we have grown accustomed.  Is it noon anywhere yet?  Where's my Mint Julep?

05 May 2010 9:37 AM
Zookeeper

Dr Drunkinbum,

WOW! That was quite a tirade! Who knew you could get this riled up?

You make excellent points that are hard to refute.

I know you never said that Make Music didn't belong. I'm the one that was thinking it and I was proven wrong. Happens to me a lot! Hope I didn't offend you, if I did please forgive me for (often) I know not what I'm talking about. :)

05 May 2010 11:04 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Slew and Zookeeper

   You both make excellent points !!!! Sorry if I offended you. Keep up the good work !!! I respect both of your opinions very much and you add a lot to the bloodhorse site. Yes, I can go on tirades and have my pet peeves too. Some are the same as yours and some are different. Everyone has their right to an opposite view. I just wish they'd change that darn Derby criteria but I'll leave it alone now. I think. Slew-I was always relieved that 85ina50 wasn't in The Derby. If they can coral that speed he could be something at 6-7 furlongs. More than 7 is stretching it. Zookeeper-you don't have to ask forgiveness if we disagree. I respect your opinion no matter what. Slew-Do you think they should change the name to The Kentucky Stampede?

05 May 2010 12:41 PM
Zookeeper

Dr Drunkinbum,

You did not offend me in the least, I was just surprised to see the "fire" under your usual "bonhomie" and I was afraid of having lost my coffe shop buddy!

05 May 2010 12:56 PM
Mr.Ruffian

Zookeeper

Zarvona

If you two can watch the gallop out of the Cashcall back in December, it may show you that

Make Music for Me belonged.

Greg J  do you know exactly what happend to Awesome Act?  Thanks!

05 May 2010 8:51 PM
Zookeeper

Mr.Ruffian,

I said I was wrong. I no longer think he didn't belong. His great run in the Derby showed me the error of my ways.

If his gallop out in the CashCall was a clue, it went way over my head. What can I say? There's no accounting for people like me who fail to see the clear evidence that others pick up so easily.  :)

05 May 2010 10:39 PM
Ranagulzion

ZOOKEEPER,

For the 2nd year straight we are reminded in the Derby that 2YO foundation must be respected, whether it is Mine That Bird, Super Saver, Make Music For Me or ...guess who ...Homeboykris.  This is very well established Kentucky Derby rule-of-thumb.  Dr Drunkinbum is quite misguided in this area. Thusly the Graded Earning System, crediting 2YO earnings, was again vindicated this year by the winner Super Saver

06 May 2010 9:39 AM
Slew

Dr D...no problem...just very surprised at your vehemence.  I think Calgary may already have the copyright on a "Stampede"...but if NBC ever covers it again...they can call it the Kentucky Circus, because it will show more clowns than horses. (PS..I love to argue anyway.)  Now..exactly what is the proper drink for Pimlico and the Preakness?

06 May 2010 9:52 AM
Slew

Mr Ruffian, Awesome Act is lame but they don't know why.  They cannot do the proper test without the tracer dye that cannot be shipped from overseas because of the residual effects of the volcanic ash.  However, I have to wonder what other test they can run in the mean time temporarily.

06 May 2010 9:55 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Ranagulzion

  Don't even try to compare Super Saver to Homeboykris. Maybe you missed Super Saver's excellent 3yo foundation and saw a foundation for Homeboykris in your dreams worthy of a Derby entry and got reality confused with your dreams. Wake up.

06 May 2010 5:09 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Slew

  The proper drink for The Preakness is something pleasant, and fit for a Prince.

06 May 2010 5:12 PM
Mr.Ruffian

Thank you Slew!

06 May 2010 7:15 PM
Slew

Dr. D: Checked it out..offically the drink of the Preakness is the Black-eyed Susan.  Since it includes Vodka..I might enjoy that.

07 May 2010 7:31 AM

Recent Posts

More Blogs

Archives