Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

 

 1

Uncle Mo Todd Pletcher

Indian Charlie—Playa Maya, by Arch

He needed to come home fast off those slow fractions and he did so and more with that stunning :22 4/5 final quarter under a hand ride. Would rather see a :25 2/5 opening quarter than a :22 2/5; would rather see a 1:36 2/5 mile than a 1:33 2/5; would rather he win by 3 3/4 lengths than 13 3/4 lengths; would rather see an 89 Beyer than a 109. So all in all this was a good first-out prep, especially getting slammed into hard at the start. And remember, there is hardly any run-up in one-turn Gulf races, so the opening quarter is always slow. Combine that with the bumping and it wasn’t as slow as it seems This race showed he can relax early and fly home late, and he galloped out like a bear (I got him in 1:49 1/5 for the 1 1/8 miles). Now it’s time to really get serious.

 2

Dialed In Nick Zito

Mineshaft —Miss Doolittle, by Storm Cat

People have a fascination with this horse, as he’s still second choice in the Future Wager despite his allowance defeat. Would prefer one more start under his belt, but he does have the look of a Derby horse; he just needs pace. Perhaps it’s best that he took a step backward in a paceless allowance race after his sensational Holy Bull score coming off one 6-furlong maiden race. Now, if he can get back to where he was with a solid effort in the Florida Derby it will set him up well for the big one.

3

Soldat Kiaran McLaughlin

War Front—Le Relais, by Coronado’s Quest

Breezed a half in :48 4/5. The Florida Derby is shaping up as a tough, competitive race, and this will be his final opportunity to get back to his old running style. He can carry his speed a long way, but can’t use it up too early in a race like the Kentucky Derby, especially with a marginal and unproven 10-furlong pedigree. Remember, most Derby winners don’t win their final prep and he has two big 1 1/8-mile wins already, so it’s more important he does it the right way.

4

Premier Pegasus Myung Kwon Cho

Fusaichi Pegasus—Squall Linda, by Summer Squall

The San Felipe set up perfectly for him with one of the biggest pace meltdowns seen in a while. But he didn’t just take advantage of it; he demolished those horses. Between the two turns, blinkers off, and his pedigree, he’s for real. And no horse has demonstrated an explosive turn of foot like that. Better to run this race now than in his final prep. With his distance-loving French-influenced female family, distance should be no problem. He has inbreeding to the French mare Lavendula through the classy Ambiorix and Source Sucree, the dam of Turn-to. Add Mahmoud, Buckpasser, and Shut Out in his first five (female) generations and you’re talking true class and stamina.

5

Stay Thirsty Todd Petcher

Bernardini—Marozia, by Storm Bird

Seems to have come out of the Gotham in good shape and will get his real test in the Florida Derby, unless Uncle Mo bumps him from another race and makes him fly back to New York for the Wood. He only needs to run a good race and be closing in the stretch to be ready to take the big step to the Derby. No margin for error. One of the intangibles is going from hot weather to cold and then back to hot (then back to cold?). With Pletcher now tossing the Florida Derby into the Uncle Mo picture, this colt's next start won't be known until that decision has been made.

6

Mucho Macho Man Kathy Ritvo

Macho Uno—Ponche de Leona, by Ponche

Keeping sharp with a 1:00 4/5 breeze for Louisiana Derby. Still not crazy about the six-week layoff going into the Kentucky Derby, but he’s one horse who might be able to get away with it, considering his size and late birth date. But he is bucking history. Seems like the Risen Star was ages ago, and so much has happened since. But he still looks to be a legitimate Derby contender.

 7

Jaycito Bob Baffert

Victory Gallop—Night Edition, by Ascot Knight

Other than having Premier Pegasus open up on him, this was an excellent first race back, considering the bizarre nature of the race and how far back he was and how much ground he lost. Blinkers back on for SA Derby. He was moving with good momentum on the turn, but was carried five-wide by Jakesam, then had to alter course to the inside when a tiring Comma to the Top drifted out into his path. He finished with good energy, handled the dirt just fine and should get a lot out of this race. Baffert was very happy with his effort and feels he’ll be much more focused with the blinkers back on.

8

To Honor and Serve Bill Mott

Bernardini—Pilfer, by Deputy Minister

Breezed an easy half in :51. The good sign is that Mott said he could see a significant physical change for the better since the Fountain of Youth, so that bodes well for a major turnaround in the Florida Derby. He’s going to need one. Really hate keeping him down this low after having him at #2, and he could gradually move back up if he continues to thrive over the next couple of weeks. But for now it’s all guesswork and he has to earn his place back near the top.

9

Santiva Eddie Kenneally

Giant’s Causeway—Slide, by Smarten

Breezed an easy five furlongs in 1:02. So far, he hasn’t given any reason not to like him. He’s never run a bad race, whether on dirt, grass, or synthetic, and his Beyers have increased with every race. Still pretty much under the radar and quietly goes about his business in a professional manner.

10

Gourmet Dinner Steve Standridge

Trippi—Potluck Dinner, by Pentelicus

As of Sunday, he hadn’t worked since the Fountain of Youth. There has been talk of running him in the Santa Anita Derby, which provide a good gauge on the California horses and how they stack against the Florida horses. Wherever he runs you know he’ll run hard and make his presence felt.

11

Silver Medallion Steve Asmussen

Badge of Silver—Another Vegetarian, by Stalwart

I normally don’t like including horses who have never run on dirt, but until the Rebel Stakes clears up the regional picture, this colt looks as good as anyone to fill in, he’s improving with every race, and his Beyers are climbing. Although Jakesam, second to him in the El Camino Real Derby, didn’t run well in that crazy San Felipe, the third-place finisher, Positive Response, romped in the Battaglia. He looks like a shifty horse who can run near or off the pace and has a good enough closing kick. And an astute bloodstock agent recently picked him out for purchase.

12

Astrology Steve Asmussen

A.P. Indy—Quiet Eclipse, by Quiet American

Have been sticking with him from the beginning, because he supposedly is a different horse than last year following a procedure last fall, but his plans keep changing, which is not a good sign. First the San Felipe, then Rebel, and now he won’t run in Rebel. Not much left for him except the Sunland Park Derby. If that’s where he goes, then he’ll have to come back in three weeks for possibly the Arkansas Derby. He has no shot in the Kentucky Derby off only one prep, especially running against a lesser group at Sunland. There has to be a concrete plan announced this week for him to remain on here.

To participate, use your cursor to drag the selections on the left to the blank placeholders on the right. Once you have completed ranking all of the horses, submit your entries and compare your results to the rest of the community. A first place ranking will earn 12 points, second place receives 11 points, and so on.

209 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Go Mo

Steve, Interested to hear your thoughts on the Tampa Bay Derby.  Brethren not on your list anymore, so I am guessing you don't think he had any excuses.

14 Mar 2011 2:15 PM
LAZMANNICK

I thought Mo was extremely professional and was impressed with his gallop out.  Premier Pegasus looks like an improving sort and if he fires in the SA Derby, could be the one to defeat Mo.  Other than him and possibly Sway Away, I think that the horse with the greatest upside and chance to defet Mo is Soldat.  Liked him since his allowance win.  He's the real deal and maybe more, especially because of his versatility and the way he can run with horses on the lead and then pull away with authority.

14 Mar 2011 2:22 PM
Trebloc

Where's Brethren?  HA!

14 Mar 2011 2:45 PM
datflippinrabbit

Premier Pegasus now thats a horse that will make Mr Mo run for his money.

14 Mar 2011 2:52 PM
Kim

You've been WAY more patient with Astrology than I would be.

14 Mar 2011 2:53 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

1. Uncle Mo-have to put him on top after seeing his return. He looked fabulous physically. The strong gallop out will help his conditioning. He looks pretty dam sound to me.

2. Premier Pegasus- Dominating performance and he has one of the top three or four pedigrees for The Derby.

3. Soldat-Two excellent performances this year already.

4. Sway Away-Another with an excellent Derby pedigree. I'm expecting him to close powerfully in The Rebel just as he did in his last which was at 7f.

5. Dialed In- His last was better than many people think. 10f suits him.

6. Elite Alex-Not really sure if he's this high but will find out Saturday.

7. Archarcharch-Has the pedigree for 10f. Last was strong, will learn more in The Rebel.

8. The Factor- Really nice mile work. There's still hope. His Rebel will really be interesting.

9. Jaycito-Wasn't quite ready to win the San Felipe, will get a lot out of it. 10f ped and nice Derby style if it's a fast pace.

10. Gourmet Dinner-One that never gives up and has more stamina than his ped would suggest.

11. Stay Thirsty-Still learning but has talent and the pedigree.

12. Mucho Macho Man- A battler.

14 Mar 2011 2:54 PM
3pleCrown

I think there are a few out there that may be better than the last couple on the list.  Sway Away comes to mind, I don't think JP's Gusto would be a stretch or even Elite Alex with the golden Borel connection.  The Rebel is shaping up to be the premier prep so far

14 Mar 2011 3:00 PM
SaratogaDreamin

Im still with 3 Pletcher(Cal nation being the 3rd, if they could ever get an allowence race to go)runners.Brethren was not impressive,so he's out. Soldat, and Im going to put elite alex as my new high 5 horse, providing he gets rid of Borel, who is an awful rider, regardless of his recent derby successes...

14 Mar 2011 3:03 PM
ThoroughbredZone.com

Soldat will have no issue with a mile and a quarter. The longer the better. He can rate, go to the lead and run on anything. And a solid foundation under him.

14 Mar 2011 3:08 PM
Inquiry

I can't wait to see where you put SWAY AWAY at on your list after he destroys the rebel this weekend...first time at 2 turns out of afleet alex its all over but the crying...for all you fans of elite alex nows your chance to jump ship... this is my 5 star lock of the year....the factor has no shot at the distance what so ever..

14 Mar 2011 3:17 PM
Alex

I have a good feeling you'll be adding Sway Away to your list after the Rebel this weekend :)

14 Mar 2011 3:19 PM
Dan

I'm still keeping an eye on Sweet Ducky, I like how he raced in the Holy Bull and I didn't know how good he was, but I didn't expect him to race that good. I really like the Pulpit horses, and he's out of a well bred Storm Boot mare. I think he can get the classic distances, he's got the perfect build. He also beat Gourmet Dinner and Mucho Macho man ( risen star winner). I think he'll be a tough horse in the three year old races this year. Kelly Breen trains :)Jaycito's number two on my list to.

14 Mar 2011 3:28 PM
Steve Haskin

To all posting about Sway Away, as a huge fan of Afleet Alex I hope he's in the top 3 next week after the Rebel. As I have stated, I use certain guidelines that I stick to. One is not including any horses who have not run beyond seven furlongs, no matter how good they look sprinting. That is why I didn't have Premier Pegasus, a colt I liked a lot coming out of the San Vicente who looked like he wanted to go longer. But they have to show it first, including The Factor, especially considering it's already Mid-March. I've been burned by two many impressive sprinters who didnt pan out going two turns. So, believe me, I am pulling for sway Away. I have him in the Top 12 in my Derby Dozen Challenge back on Feb. 1, so I thought a lot of him a while back. I just cant make exceptions for one horse and not another.

14 Mar 2011 3:44 PM
Steve Haskin

Dan, Sweet Ducky has been sold and is running in the UAE Derby.

14 Mar 2011 3:46 PM
Warren L

Too bad that Premier Pegasus was not an individual betting interest in Pool 2.  He would have drawn a lot of interest off that amazing race.  Talk about a turn of foot. It appears to me that the Ripole/Pletcher hope is that Mo can win the Derby without having to come close to getting to the bottom of him now and then be fresh enough to contest for the triple crown.  I believe that the S horses (Soldat, Santiva and Sway Away) will be in the top 5 or 6 and that the rest will come from Mo, Mucho Macho Man, Premier Pegasus and Stay Thirsty.

14 Mar 2011 3:47 PM
Steve Haskin

Warren L, Premier Pegasus should have been in the FW betting if youre going to include The Factor and Runflatout, who was coming off one 6f maiden race.

3pleCrown, I'm sure there are a lof them who will turn out better than the ones I have, but when you get down to # 11 and 12, youre splitting hairs between them and # 13, 14, and 15. All three you mentioned are very good horses.

14 Mar 2011 3:59 PM
Liz Jamieson.

Those posting about Sway Away should not underestimate The Factor. And I think that Soldat will give Uncle Mo stiff competition on Derby Day

14 Mar 2011 4:20 PM
Zenyatta John

Steve -

Did Baffert already say he is putting blinkers back on Jaycito for the SA Derby?

I can honestly say that Premier Pegasus was not on my radar until he blew away the San Felipe. Being that the pace was suicidal, doesn't his win look like Rocking Out's maiden win where he took advantage of a sizzling pace? He was very impressive, but I'm not a total believer yet.

What was the Beyer and/or Rag number that Premier Pegasus ran?

Did you get to the bottom of why Gourmet Dinner was shipped to Ocala?

14 Mar 2011 4:21 PM
Karen in Texas

Premier Pegasus gave the kind of definitive performance I was hoping to see from Jaycito, but Jaycito did close well after being way back for much of the race. After the Rebel, the Derby picture should be much clearer. I have a feeling that Sway Away may be the stronger of the Afleet Alex entries, but would love for Calvin and Elite Alex to disprove that!

Happy to read that Charismatic and Silver Charm are safe after the quake and tsunami destruction in Japan. What a horrible situation for that country--prayers for their recovery.

14 Mar 2011 4:32 PM
Rechelle

Until Mo runs against higher class 3yos and runs farther than a mile, I am having a very hard time putting him in as my Derby favorite.  I still am very high on Mucho Macho Man, Santiva & Rogue Romance and look forward to the Louisiana Derby with MMM & Santiva.  I've fallen off of Dialed In after the allowance defeat, he needs to prove to me that he can run against class horses and win more than once.  Granted he won the Holy Bull Stakes, but beyond that and his MSW race in November, he hasn't won anything to impress me.  Being beaten in the allowance really took me off him.  Santiva, OTH, has never been worse than 3rd and has run 5 races, 3 of them being graded stakes races.  I love his pedigree and think he is just a good, solid work horse.  

14 Mar 2011 5:10 PM
ALB

Steve, excellent list! What are your thoughts from the Honeybee stakes and Joyful Victory's romp? That was a very powerful move on the turn! Wow! Gonna have to keep my eyes out again for her!

14 Mar 2011 5:11 PM
StonesRoy

It's Monday!!!  The sole thing I look forward to on Mondays is your list, Steve.  For this I thank you, especially since it inevitably draws out criticism (which honorably rolls off your back like water on a duck).

Speaking of ducks, bummer about Sweet Ducky getting sold and heading to the UAE.  Can't see him shipping there and then back for the Derby.  Goodbye longshot future wager.

I'm really looking forward to the Rebel to see if Archarcharch advances.

14 Mar 2011 5:17 PM
Betsy

Steve, I think Stay Thirsty is a hardly little, competitive colt - the weather change doesn't bother me, but what does is the fact that Pletcher is training him based on Mo's schedule. It's fine that Mo is the priority, but it's just odd to me that ST's schedule is just based on what Mo is not doing.

I'm glad to hear from Mott that THAS is doing well because his FOY was just a crusher to me; I'm still stunned. If he doesn't run well, it's just going to be so disappointing.

One more Bernardini to keep an eye on for later in the year is Gallant Dreams. He ran a decent 3rd in his comeback in the Timely Writer and Live Oak/Albetrani and his jock were all very happy. I suspect he's going to be a good one.

14 Mar 2011 5:51 PM
Brian Russell

Silver Medallion?  You must be kidding!  Forgetting that he has never run on dirt, he has beaten nothing (Positive Response returned to beat even less)and the Badge of Silver's seem much better on grass so far.  I'm not saying he is not a nice horse.  He is.  But being ranked the Derby dozen?  Maybe Virginia Derby.

14 Mar 2011 5:54 PM
crazykid

archarcharch only needs to run a credible race in the rebel, then the same in the ark derby to be ready to fire a big shot in the derby. also watch out for machen in the l.a. derby those two+ uncle mo is the derby trifecta

14 Mar 2011 5:56 PM
pittsburgh jd

The more i watch the san felipe the more reasons to like PP. When he changed leads midstretch he really powered home. Jaycinto looked really average closing into that fast pace, even if he needed the race. Think he dosent have the "goods" to run well in the derby.

14 Mar 2011 5:58 PM
redandblacksilks

Uncle Mo's performance in the Timely Writer is impressive until you look at the fractions.  They were very slow and he had everything his way in the race. As a result, it was nothing more than a good workout.

Jaycito was too far back in the San Felipe.  He started to move on the backstretch but the jock slowed him down early in the turn before turning him loose again. Makes me wonder if Baffert told the jock not to gut the horse in this race as it was just a tuneup for the SA Derby. Premier Pegasus impressed visually but the pace up front was suicidal and favored his running style.

I thought the Tampa Bay Derby was a strangely run race and am puzzled by the fact that Brethren was taken to the lead.  It is NOT his cup of tea.  He's 5 wide in the first turn getting to the front then goes to the rail on the lead.  When the horses came up on his outside Brethren did not look like he was comfortable being on the rail with horses outside.  If you watched the stretch run, once the other horses passed him, Brethren quickly moved out from the rail.  He may not be KY Derby material but the ride in the Tampa Bay Derby is very questionable.

I think the most impressive prep winner so far is Soldat.  It's hard to find fault with his win in the Fountain of Youth.

I wonder why The Factor is going to Arkansas. Was the initial intent to dodge Sway Away who was quickly gaining in the last race?  if so that is not working.  He is very fast and obviously has talent but they will have to teach him to ration his speed going long or he will collapse in the lane at 1 1/8 miles much less 1 1/4 miles.  If the pace is legetimate in the Rebel I look for Sway Away and JP's Gusto to run by him in the lane.

14 Mar 2011 5:58 PM
Alex'sBigFan

What a weekend of racing!  I agree that Mo sure did look good to me on tv!  He seemed much the professional and did his job to the letter.  The Timely must have been good for him mentally even though he did not face much competition, at least he went through the saddling, paddock, people screaming, getting bumped, starting gate, Winner's Circle, and hopefully he got rewarded with his favorite food afterward.  The slow first half, almost .50!, scared the heck out of me but he came down the home stretch looking like a rocket so it was ok.  Will this prepare him for facing 19 of his own converging on Churchill all at once, who knows?

Premier Pegasus sprouted wings somewhere and looked great.  At least Jaycito ("maskless") was in it.  I am totally confused about Brethren, he got beat by two long, and I mean longshots.  I am disappointed after looking at all that pedigree behind him, I expected more.  

I have TVG and why the heck did they not show the Timely live, it was tape delayed. Don't have HRTV so I had to depend on TVG, don't understand that one at all?  For that matter the Timely should have been on NBC, as a prep race preceding the Derby, but that would be asking too much.  To show a Derby favorite in a prep to Mainstream America is asking too much I guess, we're not that far advanced in race marketing yet.

Jaycito gets the blinkers back next time out, I hate those things.  They cover their whole faces, it must be almost as uncomfortable to them as the blindfolds are?  Just guessing and trying to put myself in their hooves.  Why can't blinkers just shade the eye area, why the entire face looking like a contraption?

Well almost time for Alex's other son and I hope I see a headline that reads, "He's A Rebel."

14 Mar 2011 6:27 PM
DanC

As much as I would love to see AP Indy get a Derby winner before his stallion career is over (probably not too long from now), Astrology seems to be falling off of the radar; reminds me of Take Control (Steve: do you know if that horse will EVER race again?).

14 Mar 2011 6:43 PM
Warren L

It is starting to look like the Bernardinis may be a little over-rated kind of like the Tapits appear to be.  Both of them have been mated to some great mares and the Tapits seem to do well as 2's and then kind of fade and none of the Bernardinis seem to be taking much of a forward step either.

14 Mar 2011 6:53 PM
householder

Premier Pegasus got lost in the 4 prior sprint wars (3 of which he won!).  Both he an Jaycito, who Baffert says was only cranked up to 70%, have some of the best distance pedigree around.  I don't care who wins the Santa Anita Derby.  Sometimes you got to look 3-4 deep in that one to hit all the Triple Crown races (Real Quiet, Alysheba, Giacomo, Lookin at Lucky). Toss the Santa Anita Derby at your own risk.    

14 Mar 2011 6:55 PM
Steve Haskin

Brian, actually I WAS kidding about Silver Medallion, but you were the only one who picked up on it. Let me ask you, if he does handle the dirt, and I think he should, do you think he's capable of finishing 11th in the Derby? I think he might be able to manage that. I do after all have him 11th.

14 Mar 2011 6:57 PM
Steve Haskin

Stones Roy ad Crazy Kid, I was very tempted to put Archarcharch in the top 12, but with Elite Alex and  Alternation, both of whom I like, i there with JPs Gusto and The Factor and Sway Away I figured I'd wait one more week. I did rank him very high on my list in the last column of horses who have the look of a Derby winner. and I also had Machen ranked in the top 12.

Alb, I think Joyful Victory looked pretty awesome, and I'm surprised she only got an 82 Beyer

14 Mar 2011 7:03 PM
Lowell Rickert

The Factor blew away Premier Pegasus in his last race.  If nobody runs with TF early, watch out, he may never stop running.

14 Mar 2011 7:21 PM
Householder

Jaycito's daddy was a "grinder" as well running the Belmont in a crawling 2:29!  He should improve at 1 1/8th and beyond with or without blinkers.  In fact, if Real Quiet does not come out and bump Victory Gallop twice in the Belmont stretch, we would have had a new Triple Crown winner.  Victory Gallop saved the stewards from what would have been a pretty unpopular disqualification with his Belmont "whisker" win.  Came back to do a few things at 4 as well.

14 Mar 2011 7:25 PM
Householder

Alysheba did not run in the Santa Anita Derby, I think he ran in the Blue Grass.  Ferdinand did...and he was third to Snow Chief.  Best Pal lost the SA Derby as did Silver Charm.  

14 Mar 2011 7:38 PM
StonesRoy

Yeah, I understand AAA not making the dozen, Steve.  He wouldn't be in mine either.  I've just latched onto him as a "heart" pick.  The Rebel will be a tough race for him though.

Gourmet Dinner looks like a "grinder" that could benefit if the Derby falls apart due to speed, although it's way too early to be discussing pace in that race.

14 Mar 2011 7:40 PM
GoldenGiven

These are all really nice colts as far as a mile and an eighth are concerned. It takes a really classy mare on the bottom for a horse to get to the Derby winner's circle. Astrology is up against the 8 ball, Wilburn is only a maiden winner , so that really only leaves Brethren. He'll get some fitness off the Bluegrass and be ready May 7th. Archarcharch(inbred to northern dancer) and Beamer could move forward given their pedigree. Those are my top 3 to get the derby distance. No disrespect to Mr. Haskins list as i will never be the handicapper he is.

14 Mar 2011 7:40 PM
Karen in Texas

DanC.---Astrology is going to the Rebel unless something has changed recently.

14 Mar 2011 7:41 PM
SaratogaDreamin

I know that everyone has an opinion and is entitled to it, for sure....but everytime I read some of these posts, I never fail to realize just how little of this game most people know...some of this "indepth" analysis (not from you steve) is laughable

14 Mar 2011 8:13 PM
Hot Coal Guy

Uncle Mo - Still have some reservations with regard to distance, though it's sure hard to knock his talent and until he does something to suggest otherwise he's tops

Soldat - He's done well thus far and looks to be one the more capable ones, interested to see how he responds to a quicker pace

Dialed In - Last not as bad as I originally estimated, I think he gained something from the race and stands a good chance of considerable improvement

Stay Thirsty - Gotham was decent, he's coming into his own and I like his potential

Premier Pegasus - I would have ranked him one higher though I think this fast track surface suited his running style and the sizzling pace itself although his score was impressive nonetheless and, he appears to have a tactical advantage

To Honor and Serve - He's much better that his previous suggests, I'm giving Bill Mott the benefit of the doubt but he definitely has his work cut out for him at this juncture

Mucho Macho Man - Hard to find fault with anything about him or what he's done, I can see him being in the thick of things wherever he goes

Santiva - Gets into good position and can stalk the pace a bit before making his move, should relish the distance, appears to have a liking for Churchill Downs

Sway Away - Lots to like pretty much all the way around, liked his last, think he's got the ability and he could move way up soon

Jaycito - In a virtual tie with the one above, showed much improvement running a deceptively good race and I like his chances here in a few weeks

Brethren - Not particularly impressed this week but I still like him, it was a peculiar race so he's still included for now

Alternation - He's in my top three or four in the potential category but he has to go out and prove it taking care of business amongst his peers

Honorable Mention:

Awesome Patriot ran a decent race off his layoff, has potential and is maturing. I still think Bob Baffert is going to try and weave his way to the Derby with this one in some fashion. Elite Alex,the potential is there. IMO we'll see better things of him with time, longer distances and tracks that better fit his running style.

I'll have more of an opinion of Silver Medallion and Astrology once they run again.

Sorry Steve...I came up with fourteen so, I just made the cookies a morsel smaller.

Thanks everyone and have a great week!

14 Mar 2011 8:14 PM
thederbydream

Loved this weekend,Uncle Mo did nothing to knock him off the pedistal and Pegasus did just that take flight. Those following me on twitter got the TB Derby winner and hopefully cashed a nice ticket. I played Santiva and Ducky in Future but hate to hear Ducky is headed to Dubai, that is never good. Will be going to Rebel and La Derby so I cant wait to see how next two weeks sort out. 1. Uncle Mo 2. Dialed In 3. Premier Pegasus 4. Santiva 5. Soldat 6. Stay Thirsty 7. Jaycito 8. Mucho Macho Man 9. To Honor and Serve 10. Archarcharch 11. Elite Alex 12. Gourmet Dinner

14 Mar 2011 8:48 PM
CharlieCigar

People say that the wicked fast pace in the San Felipe set things up for Premier Pegasus but Cho made the brilliant decision to remove the blinkers and see if PP could rate off the pace. This was huge because Premier Pegasus has every bit of early speed as the leaders in the race. But Pegasus showed a new dimension on the stretch out and proved he could relax and let them run off while Quinonez bided his time.  If he remains healthy and with his breeding he very well could be the chosen one this year..

14 Mar 2011 8:53 PM
ROBINM

I liked Uncle Mo's "workout" better than Premier Pegasus' San Felipe.  PP was very impressive but it's still a little early to be firing "bullets" (unless, of course, he is capable of that kind of performance every time out).

I absolutely loved Mo's last quarter mile shading 23 seconds. Thanks for catching the "gallop out" time Steve (which really was a "work" past the wire).  A very smart move considering this is March and the Derby is only 8 weeks away.

14 Mar 2011 9:02 PM
Coldfacts

Steve,

Listed below are the actual and extrapolated splits for the Robert Lewis and San Felipe. The extrapolated figures are the 8.5F for the Bob Lewis and the 9F for the San Filipe.

Robert Lewis   22.48, 45.64, 1:09.92, 1:35.07, 1:41.85, 1:48.63

San Felipe        21.75, 44.58, 1:08.98, 1:34.55, 1:41.23, 1:47.91

Assuming the extrapolated times are fairly accurate you would therefore have a serious problem with the exclusion of Anthony’s Cross and Riveting Reason. Jaycito got beat 7 1/2L and his finishing time would be in the region of 1:49 plus.

Premier Pegasus ran the last 16th in 6.68. If he maintained that pace for another 16th his final furlong for 9F would be 13.36. The final furlong for the Lewis was run in 13.56. Using the extrapolated 9F time for the SF of 1:47.91 and deducting the actual time for 6F (1:08.98), the final 3F would be run in 38.93. The final 3F of the Lewis was run in 38.71. The figures for the final 3F & 1F for both races are fairly close. Admittedly Premier Pegasus was making his two turn debut and should improve off same. In spite of this, how can he be ranked #4 and there is no room for Anthony’s Cross. I know you do not rate Riveting Reason so I have given up on trying making a case for him. The #5, 6, 9-12 ranked colts do not have the speed figures of either Anthony’s Cross or Riveting Reason. Sway Away came off a 5 to 6 months respite and finished ahead of Premier Pegasus who was returning from a shorter rest. Do you seriously believe Sway Away is a later closing sprinter? Even if he is, he can beat all the slow colts on your list at any distance as he has more class. The very fast and classy J P Gusto has been closing in his last races and has a lot of graded earnings and has run beyond 7F in his closing effort and he is ignored. I cannot understand what it is you like about the #5, 6, 9-12 ranked colts. They are all slow by derby standers. This derby is going to be about speed. Upfront speed and closing speed and #5, 6, 9-12 are not dominant in any of the categories.

Your dozen has two horses from the dominant RAN sire line. One just ran the best 3YO prep to date and will likely take down the Rebel. Riveting Reason will win the SA Derby or any other derby he enters. The Sunland derby will be won by a colt from the RAN line as well. There is amble time for adjustment s to your dozen as the RAN sire line rules the Triple Crown.

14 Mar 2011 9:16 PM
Paula Higgins

Steve, my list is much like yours but I have Dialed In a little lower (2 spots). Love your analysis when you do your Derby Dozen. I learn so much from it and then from the dialogue that follows. Many thanks. I still think the most impressive looking horse out there is Uncle Mo. The Florida Derby or Wood will tell the tale.

14 Mar 2011 9:17 PM
skyfire

I liked PP prior to race and was very happy for his owner; wish the jock had saved a little horse when he had it won, though!!!

14 Mar 2011 9:59 PM
Alex'sBigFan

I am loving the idea of Uncle Mo going in the Florida Derby now.  Makes perfect sense to me.  Mo loves Florida & Churchill so why not?  Mo is apparently that good that it gives them the option of having enough flexibility to play with his race schedule.  I like the Florida Derby race as a prep better than the Wood in general anyway, and he now gets to go against my other top favorite Soldat.  My two favorites in the same prep, not bad.  I would imagine this way Mo could stay in Florida straight until the Derby.

And Stay Thirsty who seems to love NY, can go in the Wood instead?  Great decision, horse first mentality, Go Team Mo!!!!!!!!!!

14 Mar 2011 10:20 PM
Forbidden Apple

1-DIALED IN 2-SOLDAT 3-SWAY AWAY 4-PREMIER PEGASUS 5-ARCHARCHARCH 6-The Factor 7-To Honor & Serve 8-Uncle Mo 9-Mucho Macho Man 10-Santiva 11-Riveting Reason 12-Nacho Business 13-Arch Traveler

My top five picks are solid, after that I just don't know. Dialed In and Soldat will prove who is the better horse in the FL Derby. Sway Away will open many eyes in the Rebel, look out. Premier Pegasus was razor sharp, professional, and full of run after his race on saturday. He was breathing fire and prancing around post race, he was ready to run again.

14 Mar 2011 10:35 PM
Alex'sBigFan

Off topic but how unfortunate about Fort Hughes.  My friend bred Henny Hughes, his sire and Darley apparently bred Fort Hughes (Henny resides at Darley USA in KY) and Fort Hughes was just euthanized in a training accident in NY.  He must have been beautiful as Henny was a fire red coppery golden color, just as beautiful a color coat you would ever want to see.  Poor thing, RIP Fort Hughes.

14 Mar 2011 10:36 PM
cashmoney

i am glad that Premier Pegasus was FINALLY given a chance to route and run without the blinkers. I had been waiting for him to route since his Hollywood Prevue victory and had him pegged as my Derby Longshot since then (have a $20 future wager on him at 150-1). Steve you were dead on when you called him an "interesting"  horse to watch in your article last week. I still haven't given up on THAS and expect a much better performance next time out(an exacta finish).

14 Mar 2011 10:44 PM
Kristen Ohler

OK, I'm embarrased to say when I reply to some blogs and ask questions I can't find the answers.  I know what good Beyer figures are.  Can somebody please explain to me how they come up with them?  And what are Brisnik, probably spelled wrong, are?  Steve, you probably answered but I can't find the blog I wrote it on.  Dumb me.  I will look for the answer on this blog, the Derby Dozen, March 14.

14 Mar 2011 10:49 PM
Bigtex

Steve

More than any other in the San Felipe, I was impressed with Comma.  I don't know if that was a bad ride or if that strategy was by design but the horse gave himself in that race.  Jaycito will move forward off this but not like Comma if he's sound.

I get this feeling that Dialed In is more than capable but will have too much to overcome in the Derby.  

Soldat will stay of trouble in any race he runs so he's gonna be there at the end.

I plan on driving up from Dallas on Saturday so I'm completely jazzed about being at Oaklawn for the Rebel.  Hopefully, it'll be a fight to finish with 5 across the track in a photo:

Sway Away

Elite Alex

The Factor

J.P.'s Gusto

ArchArchArch

And the winner is……….

14 Mar 2011 10:53 PM
John T

The English 2000 Guineas is breaking with tradition this year

and it will not be run on the same day as the Kentucky Derby but rather will be run the week before

on April 30th.Looking forward to Frankel running in that race.

 Uncle Mo won good on his return to the races but as we don,t know what he beat his next race whatever

it,s going to be will tell us so much more.

  Premier Pegasus lived up to his promising run in the San Vicente and as the first and second in that

race The Factor and Sway Away meet

in the Rebel we should learn more about the form of that race.

I was really thrilled to see the Canadian-bred Tapit filly,Joyful Victory draw off the way she did in

the Honeybee Stakes at Oaklawn.The

other Candian-bred Queen.splatekitten ran ok too finishing second in the Palm Beach

on turf.As the Queen.s Plate is run

on Polytrack I hope his next race

will be the Blue Grass Stakes on that surface so we will have a better idea were he fits.

14 Mar 2011 10:59 PM
Bigtex

Uncle Mo looked like a statue on Saturday, carved out of stone!  Once he got on the lead, he looked a little bored but the hand ride finish the way it was, was a big WOW!  I have to say, I'm not super thrilled at Mo's path to CDowns but I have noticed that Pletcher, maybe not his fault at all, is a little streaky with injuries.  I think his main priority is a sound Mo and I can live with that.

If Flashpoint makes a statement in the Fla Derby, then he's a freak!  I'm perplexed that they're running him there.  Hopefully, he doesn't suffer for the sake of the Ky Derby.

14 Mar 2011 11:06 PM
Deacon

Nothing I saw this past weekend changes my feelings. Uncle Mo is clearly the top 3 year old in the country, and I strongly believe he will show it come Derby day. He ran a very professional race on Saturday.... Premier Pegasus is a nice horse but it is impossible to compare the Santa Anita racing surface to Churchill Downs. All these prep races are nice and it will certainly add conversation to any blog but Uncle Mo is truly the real deal. I have never been in the habit of touting a horse this stronly before the big race but Uncle Mo just exudes class and dignity.............best to all.  

15 Mar 2011 3:09 AM
Coldfacts

ROBINM,

If Uncle Mo finishes ahead of Premier Pagasus in the derby I will make donation to a charity of your choice. The fractions for the San Felipe were 4-5 seconds faster at the 4F & 6F point. At the 8F point they were 1.5 to 2 seconds fasters. Now let’s trade places with the two colts. If Premier Pegasus was strangled as that is what would be required to get him to sit in a 23, 49.1:13 pace, what would his gallop be like give the acceleration he showed? He is a far better mover than Uncle Mo and is better bred for the derby. When horse with exceptional speed and class are allowed to run extremely slow in the first part of any race they canter home and their gallop outs will be impressive. Those slow fractions recorded early by Uncle Mo required the use of lees fast twitch muscles and consequently the significantly delayed the billed up lactic acid. He therefore was under no stress and could gallop out impressively. The derby splits are going to be 22, 45,1:10 plus those are 3-4 seconds faster and he will not be closing in 22 seconds unless he is a machine. Even the machine Secretariat did not close the last 2F of his derby in 22 seconds.

If is possible for you to get some literature on the three energy system of a thoroughbred and how they operate sequentially. It would give some insight into the point I am trying to make above.  

15 Mar 2011 7:02 AM
Rachel

PP is class and he has the eye of the tiger...did you see him after the race when turned back? He was ready to go back out and do it again!

I guess I'm not seeing why many feel Soldat has a marginal classic pedigree...? His pedigree has plenty of stamina influence and his DP is strong classic and some solid on the back side, I think he'll like 10.

15 Mar 2011 7:11 AM
Don from PA/DE

Thanks Steve, so far so good. Nothing really to add to your list and your following comments...Don

15 Mar 2011 7:43 AM
JerseyBoy

Racing is one of those sports in which some people express an opinion which develops a life of its own and becomes a sort of religious belief. One such belief is that Indian Charlie could not stay 10 furlongs.

Well, Indian Charlie won the 9 fur SA Derby. He finished third in the Kentucky Derby to Real Quiet and Victory Gallop. Real Quiet was later nosed out for the Triple Crown by Victory Gallop.

The Ky Derby is the only race Indian Charlie lost. He was retired after the Ky Derby because of a leg injury which might have occurred during the race.

This does not prove that he could not stay 10 fur. It only proves that he finished third in the Kentucky Derby to horses who might have been superior to him. Yet this belief persists.

Another belief is that horses need to run in prep races. I have been watching races for years and it is clear that prep races are just one option available to trainers. The same results can be obtained by training in the morning. Michael Dickinson did it regularly and horses have won races off long layoffs. In fact, no one can say that a prep race is more effective than training a horse over 9 furlongs, like this. The horse goes 5 fur alone in about 1 minute while carrying 132 lbs, then picks up a teammate and finishes the last 4 in about 48 seconds. It used to be done regularly. It is done everyday in Europe. Preps are just one option. It is all up to the trainer.

15 Mar 2011 8:18 AM
Fran Loszynski

The Rebel:

ELITE ALEX

SWAY AWAY

SOLDAT

DIALED IN

Go Calvin, Go Elite Alex

Bring Elite and Calvin home, Alex Scott.

Good Luck everyone.

15 Mar 2011 8:21 AM
Brian Russell

Steve,  Regarding your Silver Medallion question to me:  Yes, if he handles the dirt I agree he could finish 11th in the Derby.  That said, and I am not saying there is not one somewhere, but I have followed Babdge of Silver pretty closely and every one I have seen that has tried both turf and dirt has been better on the turf.

15 Mar 2011 8:32 AM
Justine

Think I've settled on my (SoCal) Derby horse of the year. Always loved Premier Pegasus's pedigree, his 2YO class, his connection(s), and that he took to two turns and no blinkers beautifully even with that crazy speed and the ridiculous SA track. Wishing the best for him and Cho in the coming months!

15 Mar 2011 8:35 AM
Carl

You know what they say about opinions...,well,mine is this:

The Bill O'Reilly loving Bob Baffert will enter "The Factor" in the "Derby", no matter what. Just all the hoopla and talk of his Fox News idol will spur him on to the fantasy. His hope is that The Factor will "Dizzy Izzy" the field (including Uncle Mo) and that by the time the closers wake up, he will cross the finish line and into the history books.

I still think that Soldat and Pegasus will chase him down with Dialed In and To Honor and Serve close on their heels. That's my Tri-Superfecta box anyway.

I just don't trust the silver-haired golden boy of racing with Uncle Mo. He slithered out of the Life At Ten debacle (and no one is even talking about Quality Road and his dismal last place in the BCC). Let's hope Uncle Mo does not get "a shot" before the Derby or who knows how he will run. He might jump the fence and head for downtown Louisville.

15 Mar 2011 9:39 AM
Lmaris

@Coldfacts - "extrapolated" is an estimate, not a fact, and assuming they're accurate adds yet another subjective statement on top of it.

I like Steve's list, but I'd have Uncle Mo a few spots lower since he beat nothing and while closed well, he would have to with the glacial split times.  Heck, the claimers fan faster miles on turf that day.

15 Mar 2011 9:40 AM
RiverCitySmitty

With bombs winning/placing like in the TB Derby and trainers opting to roll the dice with only one or two preps for the KD, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if several touted horses get leapfrogged on the graded list in the upcoming two weeks.  It'll be a good measuring stick of Cal horses if Gourmet Dinner runs in the SA Derby.  Kinda like a Rodney Dangerfield horse in that he never seems to get any respect.

Willcox Inn made a decent return in a minor stakes at the FG albeit on the grass.  If he fares well in the Blue Grass on astrodirt he could make his dirt debut in Louisville  Rosie in the Run For the Roses.  That would be nice.  My VERY longshot.

15 Mar 2011 9:41 AM
jonni

My Top 5

1. Stay Thirsty/Uncle Mo

2. Soldat

3. Santiva

4. Mr Common

5. Dialed in

Stay Thirsty looked like Bernie winning the other day.  Mr Common is a Triple Crown Sleeper. Sheriffs doesn't like rushing his Charges.   Watch out for him if he goes in the SA derby

15 Mar 2011 9:45 AM
Steve Haskin

BigTex, I agree that Comma to the Top ran a very under appreciated race, tracking that insane pace and hangng in there to finish fourth.

Kristen, Not many people really know how the Beyers are actually calculated. Unlike the sheets figs they dont take into account wide trips, trouble, and other variables. Their figs are based in good part by the other horses in the race -- what theyre capable of running. If a horse runs a fast time and wins by lets say a length, and the second horse has been running 70 and 80 Beyers, the winner is not going to get a huge number. I have no idea how the Brisnet figs are compiled. I never see them, only this one time when I pulled the Brisnet PPs on the Derby horses.

Brian, I understand about Badge of Silver, but going strictly by pedigree is inconclusive. Paddy O'Prado was a much better horse on grass, but managed to 3rd in the Derby, albeit in the slop. All I can tell you is that the difference between a horse finishing 11th or 18th in the Derby is negligible. After 6th or 7th anyone can finish anywhere because jocks often will not persevere with a horse who's beaten off. If you want me to defend a horse I have at #1 or 3 or 5, I'll be glad to, but not a horse I have 11th.

15 Mar 2011 9:55 AM
AustinBnike

Watch out for Sway Away and Elite Alex!!! They are both working very well. I still like Alternation, Astrology and Archarcharch, too!

15 Mar 2011 10:02 AM
Inquiry

I remember when Michael Dickinson won a breederscup race with dahoss who I believe was on a year layoff

15 Mar 2011 10:08 AM
Zens Auntie

Thanks Steve this is fun.  My rankings were exactly like the bloggers, interesting... for what its worth to me Premire Pegasus moves to slot two.  

The SF was the first real deep test of the colts this season. I was so looking forward to see who could rise too the occasion. The race was much like the KD could be on a dry track smoking fast (throw The Factor out there... whee!) rough and lots of variables in a very capable field of stakes winning horses.

PP won like a contender should and therefore moves up for me. Jaycito is growing up too and got a good prep out of it he will have to do considerably more to catch Mo & PP though.

15 Mar 2011 10:28 AM
Footlick

Jersey Boy- It doesn't matter to me whether Indian Charlie could stay 10 furlongs or not.  What matters to me is what distance his progeny show they prefer.  So far, they seem to not want farther than 9 furlongs.  Uncle Mo might be the one, but until he does, many will still question his ability to get 10 furlongs.

15 Mar 2011 10:30 AM
Footlick

Jersey Boy- in Europe they simulate race conditions frequently in their gallops, so they do not need to prep a horse like they do in the US.  It is a totally different way of training a horse here.  Horses train alone or with one other horse usually.  It does not simulate a race condition and doesn't get a horse in a "race" frame of mind.  That is why prep races here tend to be important and are discussed, IMO.

15 Mar 2011 10:39 AM
roan roy

Last year at this time you had the eventual winner 6th.  Not too bad, but you subsequently dropped him completely before he clawed his way back to your #4 the week before the derby, behind the likes of distance-challenged Sidney's Candy and the speed-challenged Stately Victor.  Genius!  Pedigree matters, Steve.  You might want to take a look at Uncle Mo's sometime.

15 Mar 2011 11:06 AM
Bigtex

Fort Hughes was special.  Terrible news on him.

Where can I find the graded earnings standings so far for the Derby?  

Footlick

Appreciate your comments.

Steve

Will Akkadian get a shot on dirt and is he a possibility to go to the Derby?

15 Mar 2011 11:25 AM
Bigtex

Steve, what's going on with Tiz Blessed?

15 Mar 2011 11:30 AM
Brian Appleton

I love your top six Steve, although I like Premier Pegasus more than Soldat at this point.

What did you think of Brethren in the Tampa Bay Derby? He had a terrible ride by Ramon Dominguez getting put on the lead so early. I think he should be able to come back with a stronger showing if he's allowed to rate off the pace again.

15 Mar 2011 12:06 PM
Giddyup

Good performance by Premier Pegasus but I am not convinced he can deliver with the consistency Uncle Mo and Soldat have shown. With each Derby prep, it is looking less and less likely that we have a colt capable of scoring the triple this year.

15 Mar 2011 12:14 PM
JerseyBoy

Footlick:

If a horse is far superior to the field in the prep race, it is hard to see how much the prep race helps him. It might be just as effective  training him to catch a teammate who has a head start and carries less weight.

Seattle Slew hardly took a deep breath in his preps. Sunday Silence and Winning Colors won the SA Derby by daylight. Spend A Buck probably thought he was running alone in his final prep.

I am not saying that prep races are a waste of time. I am saying they are just an option not a necessity. Bobby Frankel also won off long layoffs. The trainer can use any method he sees fit, including methods employed in Europe.

As to Indian Charlie, he sired Fleet Indian,Pampered Princess and Two Trail Sioux who all stayed.

15 Mar 2011 12:29 PM
DanC

Steve:  Do you think Watch Me Go is a fluke?  He seems to have the seasoning (9 races already) that you bemoan the hot horses don't have; could this be another Mine That Bird?

15 Mar 2011 12:36 PM
Sue M

I still like The Factor and if he can run a smart race, you never know. I'll wait until this weekend to see if I can keep him on my list. PP looks very impressive. I've really liked Uncle Mo, too, but the fact he hasn't faced anyone yet is bothersome.

15 Mar 2011 1:12 PM
M-D

Still like the doseage pedigree & performance figures (which comprehend more race-related variables--& the predictive algorithm is more mathematically elegant & robust, than the Beyer & Brisnet performance figures; see:

www.chef-de-race.com/.../2011_triple_crown_trail.htm)

for Premier Pegasus, The Factor, & Mucho Macho Man.

Like Dan C. (see above), Mr. Haskin & others, I am wondering if anyone knows what has become of...

...Take Control.

15 Mar 2011 1:47 PM
Fran Loszynski

I know this has nothing to do with horseracing but maybe it does because we have Silver Charm and Charismatic over in Japan, but God Bless the workers that elected to stay behind facing large and probably lethal doses of radiation to work on the nuclear plant to help save their country and probably the world, so we can live our everyday lives in enjoyment and yes horseracing. It's a far reaching point in this blog taht deals with horseracing but let's all pray for these individuals they may be giving up their brave lives.

15 Mar 2011 1:50 PM
JuneBugJohnny

The only one that throws me for a loop is Dialed in...he would be lucky at this time, right now, to be in my top 12 ??? Did I miss something? And, not having Sway Away at all is a little confusing too ???

15 Mar 2011 2:30 PM
Zens Auntie

How bout the dirty double dozen?

Whats the future book on Archarcharch? Nice work today a tight 47.6, hes 25th in graded earnings - Hes pointed where? hmmm

Next Question please. Ain't it who can get TEN?? Can an Arch over Mr P and ND colt get 10? Wonder wonder wonder, well you cant Blame Roberto or the Queen either Sharp or Z nor Pass the Buck on it if he doesnt.  

We shall see.

15 Mar 2011 2:35 PM
LAZMANNICK

JerseyBoy

Michael Dickinson was a special trainer with a gift for bringing a horse into a top race after a long layoff and have that horse fire.

Regarding Indian Charlie offspring with the ability to get 10F.  His daughter, Fleet Indian was 2 for 2 at the distance winning the Delaware Handicap and the Personal Ensign.  I personally believe that Mo will get the distance.  Mo is a special talent, a horse with a rare combination of raw talent and a professional demeanor that the great ones often have.  I believe that that is why Zenyatta was so successful and Mo, if brought along properly, has every chance to make history.

15 Mar 2011 2:43 PM
alydarstar

Just as i said last week in your blog, Mr Steve, Premier Pegasus has the potential to be the main card of the west, not only for the triple crown, but for the rest of the season... In the San Felipe he rumped impressively, bringing wonderful flashes of his own father in the 2000 San Felipe Stakes... I keep my fingers tighly croosed for PP because i liked him since the first time i saw him in action... Do you knaow who could be his hardest rival? Maybe his brother and barn room, Rivetin Reason... I really like this colt too... Look out about his perfomance in the Santa Anita Derby... He might be the rock on the road por Premier Pegasus...  Finally Mr Steve, i love this land of speculations before the Derby... Look at your own Derby Dozen list, in less than a month how much it has changed... Isnt it so cool?

15 Mar 2011 3:05 PM
Zens Auntie

I know its turf but can I mention Joes Blazing Aaron in the Palm Beach at 9 F

15 Mar 2011 3:44 PM
Footlick

Jersey Boy-It would be nice if they did use European training methods, but most don't anymore.  They used to work horses 10 furlongs to prepare for a 10 furlong race but they don't.  If you feel that someone in this day and age can prepare a three year old for the Derby on works alone then that is fine.  I just don't see anyone using any training methods where that would get a horse to the Derby on optimum shape without prep races.

As far as the Indian Charlie's you have mentioned, none as far as I know won at 10 furlongs as 3 yr olds.  I know Fleet Indian did as an older horse, and I don't think Two Trail Sioux ever won at 10 furlongs.  If I am talking about one of his offspring winning the Derby then he has to start siring horses who win at 10 furlongs as 3 yr olds.  His progeny, for the most part, do not want to go as far as 10 furlongs.  Will there be exceptions?  Of course.  Is Uncle Mo one of them?  We won't know until May 7th.

15 Mar 2011 4:08 PM
spendabuck1985

Watch out for Alternation, he will improve again in the Rebel, throw out a 95 Beyer then hit the board in the Ark Derby, not winning as not fully wound up then explode in the real Derby, can't wait!

15 Mar 2011 4:15 PM
Alysse

Thanks for sharing what you had Uncle Mo's gallop out in!  I knew SOMEBODY out there had to have it and I was getting impatient.

15 Mar 2011 5:03 PM
StonesRoy

Zens....Archarcharch closed at 50-1 in Pool 2 of the Futures Pool.  Not sure what Vegas has him at right now, but I see 30-1 in an online book right now.  Pool 3 opens April 1st, which will be after his Rebel, so his odds will be heavily based on his performance in this weekend's Rebel (a very tough race).

He is one I am watching, as I want to see if he can show a good closing form like he did in the Southwest.  He is my "dark horse" (pun intended) because he is a beautiful creature and, unlike some, I LOVE his name.  He currently sits 17th on the Graded Earnings list, so he'll need to pick up some earnings in the Rebel and/or the Arkansas Derby (one would expect to be his final prep).

15 Mar 2011 5:24 PM
SPLITS OF 12

Steve,

I am disappointed that Astrology keeps making your Derby Dozen when he hasn't even run a lick and we are in the middle of March. I undersatnd it's one of Steve Asmussen's last hopes, but lets call a spade a spade, Asmussen is running thin on legitimate Derby contenders. He still has Silver Medallion left, but he's never tried dirt, have a feeling he's more of a turf specialist. So if Astrology is the one, then he better have improved a ton, since he was last scene running a lackluster place to Santiva in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Cup. Also It's hard for me to see how Dialed In, is rated above Soldat, Mucho Macho Man, and Premier Pegasus for that matter. Here's my Derby Dozen for this week.

1. Uncle Mo- Explosive final quarter, get the feeling he loves this game.

2. Soldat- A very game horse who knows how to ration out his natural spped.

3. Premier Pegasus- Like his father, he has an explosive turn of foot.

4. Mucho Macho Man- Stands 17 hands tall, and keeps getting better.

5. Dialed In- Not sure if he's as dominating around two-turns as he is one?

6. J.P's Gusto- This horse has a great foundation to off-set his suspect pedigree to get the distance. Still he will be a handful in the Rebel Stakes this weekend.

7. Jaycito- Definitely needed last race, and will be more focused in the Santa Anita Derby. Have a feeling we haven't come close to seeing his best.

8. Rogue Romance- Love his pedigree and his physical maturation from 2 to 3. Foot bruise is gone and he looks strong. Watch out!

9. Santiva- A grinder type, with good early speed, who tries hard everytime. How can you not like that.

10. Gourmet Dinner- Like the effort he gives everytime, not sure if the son of Trippi can get the Derby distance though.

11. Sway Away- A monster colt by Afleet Alex. Looks like he wants two turns and Garrett Gomez is aboard. We'll see how he does this weekend in the G2 Rebel.

12. Stay Thirsty- Still green and needs to keep improving. He could be what Real Quiet was to Bob Baffert, when Indian Charlie was BB's main gun going into the Derby. Just like Uncle Mo, who ironically is by Indian Charlie, Stay Thirsty my friends, may indeed be the colt who gives Team Pletcher their second Derby victory.  

15 Mar 2011 5:50 PM
jonni

Horse Message

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Horse name Mr. Commons

Notes  

Activity type Workout

Activity date 03-15-2011

Track Hollywood Park

Surface All Weather Track

Distance 5 Furlongs

Workout type Handily

Workout time 0:59.20

Track condition Fast

15 Mar 2011 5:53 PM
Alex'sBigFan

Ok, this happened to me today, Tuesday 3/15.  I am driving on my lunch break and I'm in Jersey, about 10 minutes outside of Manhattan.  All of a sudden I'm in back of a big bus on a major road.  In HUGE letters on the back of the bus are the words:

    WAR HORSE

There was a beautiful picture or painting of a big horse and other scenes.  It looked like a moving billboard.  Could be an advertisement for a theatrical production, which is common around the area for Broadway or Off Broadway shows.  I have no idea what it was, could have been the bus line itself for all I know.  Is it a sign to pick Soldat?  He is alreay in my #1 spot followed by Mo.  This was so weird it reminded me exactly of one of Steve's articles in 2005 when he went down to Delaware to see Afleet Alex and saw a sign that said Ritchey Road and a truck or something that said Triple Crown on the Turnpike, that's what this felt like to me.  It could also mean "beware the ides of March" for isn't that what 3/15 is?  Make of it what you will, strange coincidence or not, I just thought I'd mention it.  Now I have to go google and see if there are any plays on Broadway now called War Horse?  

15 Mar 2011 6:10 PM
Alex'sBigFan

Well sure enough guys I found out that "War Horse" is a play now at the Beaumont Theatre at Lincoln Center in NYC!!!  There is even a show tonight.  Listen to what it says:

"War Horse travels from the verdant English countryside to the fields of France and Germany at the outbreak of World War I.  A boy's beloved horse has been sold to the cavalry and shipped to France.  Caught up in enemy fire, the horse serves on both sides of the war, and survives an odyssey that leaves him alone in no-man's land.  The boy, now a young man, cannot forget his horse, and embarks on a treacherous mission to find him and bring him home."

Wow, what a great play.  I had never heard of it until I saw that bus today!!!!!  It also continues to play in London to capacity audiences.  Sounds like a great story.  And as I googled this info I saw the promo photo of the horse they used on that bus.  Go Soldat!

15 Mar 2011 6:28 PM
JOE

Steve,

          Jaycito does look pretty dam good right now.    Ya he should of won the San Felipe but trouble came calling not one time but three times.  I am looking to the San Anita Derby with out trouble and some extra ground, should be something to see.

15 Mar 2011 6:48 PM
Gary

Spendabuck I'm with you. ALTERNATION...

I've been trying to quietly whisper my choice of sleeper.

15 Mar 2011 7:26 PM
sally

Is there any chance at all that the Chechen President who bought Sweet Ducky will run him in the KD. I love Ducky and am so sad he's gone to the Emirates! Any chance????

15 Mar 2011 7:44 PM
courtland simmons

WELL Im still "not" impressed that much w UNCLE Mo -  I hate the name

and the prospect if HE DOES MEASURE UP in the "classics" of having to put a "poorly" named horse up in lights

but Im sticking W THE position

that two year old champions in the

"less starts per runner era"

dont go ANYWHERE at 3 -

AND THE HORSE WOULD be "better served " 2 stay in FL run in the Derby  , tackle some "real competition , BUT the Woodm,ay come up as a tough race but  in theory it will likely b be the "Softer" SPOT- and going down a  potential path of "least resistance" is not a BAD IDEA

HE (Uncle Mo) is going to need all of the energy he can muster to win the Derby - he may be able to go 10 f and he WILL barring an absulte DISASTER will make the Derby  unless  an ESKENDREYA situation arises

Stay Thirsty should stay in NY

and run "back" in the Wood with or

w w/ o Uncle Mo there - but it

WILL BE "interesting" to see how

he fares against  

To HONOR AND SERVE, SOLDAT , and

             DIALED IN

I STILL think TO HONOR AND SERVE is a contender , but going 9f "first time out" and having  

the plan backfire leaves NO MARGIN for ERROR in the FLA Derby -

he has to run well   w /o "EMPTYING "his tank

and maintain some form if he trains up to the Derby

as for PREMIER PEGASUS he did

"wow" everyone , and I LOVED his SIRE as a racehorse

VERY INRIGUED to see if he can CARRY it 9f DO IT effortlessly

RELAX while getting a good sharp prep and have SOMETHING in the "TANK" for the Derby

as for JAYCITO like everyone else

it's hard to tell whether he can make up 7 lengths with the "added" distance in the SA Derby to be good enuff 2 even SPECUALTE on

whehter he will RELISH the "EXTRA GROUND" at Churchill

the pedigree may be "over - influencing many along with ther Baffert factor , but GOING BACK to the blinkers I think may be a "bad idea" as much as I LOVE Bob

Let the horse look around if he had gawked and drifted aimlessly in his first start I would be one to CONSIDER the change "back", but he might as well run back at 9f

W/ O the hood and do what u have to do after A drubbing such as the one he and the rest of the field suffered  -RUN FASTER . A LOT FASTER ,especially if Premier P wants to be a "freak like his daddy was the first half of 2000

BRETHERENgetting beat was a SURPRISE and Ramon Dominguez  better  pray he dosent LOSE the mount on the colt , for he placed him "too fowardly" , but this may be GOOD that  they found out WHAT MAY WORK BEST for him - BETTER 2  to make a mistakes NO than in the final prep  

now let see what the horses out of LOUSIANA AND aRKANSAS do

mAYBE "tHE FACTOR may be Baffert's best shot and I expect SANTIVA ti improve in the LA Derby if he runs back - he' one of my top picks

while ASTROLOGY seems to be disappearing "off the radar - HE NEEDS TO get a race under his belt

meantime maybe THE FACTOr may be Baffert's top hope

Im curious as to what all of you GUYS  and GALS think and has ANYONE

THOUGHT about a FILLY being in the mix

PROBABLY not likely , but that daughter of AZERI looks like a nice prospect for any of the "classics"  (THE Derby Oaks , the Preakness )

shoulds she STAY ON COURSE

JUST A THOUGHT - But get back to me on her and if u gUYS think

THE FACTOR can "STRETCH OUT"

GREAT TALKING TO U GUYS

SEEU NEXT WEEK !!

Sincerely

c . simmons

15 Mar 2011 7:47 PM
Steve Haskin

Splits of :12, I'm disappointed he hasnt run yet as well, but we'll find out in the Sunland Derby. I feat that will be too late. I believe this will his last week on the list. The reason I've kept him on so long is that when he won the Iroquois and was second in the KJC, he was running with an entrapped epiglottis and wasnt even getting his air. He had surgery to correct it and supposedly he was doing great. So I took a shot with him, but I'm finally losing patience.

Spendabuck and Gary, I also think Alternation is going to run a big race on Saturday.

15 Mar 2011 7:48 PM
rjb92

despite sleepwalking out of the gate in last race, uncle mo easily looks the best so far. jaycito(stylewise) looked like spectacular bid did when he won a troubled trip florida derby back in the 70's. needs blinkers, strong handling and free trip thru tiring stretch horses to pull off derby stunner. he needs an elevator trip up the learning curve before the derby to be able to fire his best shot. stubbornly he's my second choice.

15 Mar 2011 7:59 PM
Carlos in Cali

Hindsight:

If Uncle Mo would've had to pick up his feet a little more and track the speedster who scratched,would he still come home as fast as he did?...

And would they have let him gallop-out as far as he did?...

15 Mar 2011 8:08 PM
Alex'sBigFan

More googling told me that the movie "War Horse" is in production right now by Steven Spielberg!  He apparently saw the play in London and bought the movie rights!  This should be a good one, due out maybe in December 2011.  Now we have another horse movie to look forward to.  Soldat, by War Front, hmmmmm....................interesting.  All this from driving in back of a dam bus at lunch from work today.

15 Mar 2011 8:22 PM
Auburnbill

Mr. Haskin,

Do you have any thoughts or insight into who would be most likely to pick the mount on To Honor and Serve if Johnny V stays on Mo (which I would assume he would)? Also, is there any history between Mott and Borel? I keep thinking (most likely hoping, since I have some hefty future wagers on THAS)that Elite Alex is going to come up short on earnings and free up Borel.

15 Mar 2011 8:55 PM
ROBINM

Coldfacts:  My point was that I would rather see a horse start slow & finish strong and in hand than to see see a horse "blow open" a prep race.  I have Premier Pegasus 2nd on my list and will agree he ran very well, but he didn't need to win by 7 or 8.  

If the Derby pace is 22, 45 1:10, etc. as you suggest, I don't expect to see Uncle Mo on the pace.  I do expect to see him get 1st run on PP.  I guess we'll have to wait and see who has the best finishing kick.  I agree PP has the stronger pedigree to get a distance of ground, but I've seen nothing yet from Mo to say he can't get the distance because he has always finished well.

15 Mar 2011 9:25 PM
Kristen Ohler

I'm kind of curious how anyone can rank Tapit's 3 year olds with only 5 crops to race, and Bernardin's with only 1 crop to race.  To say they can't race into their 3 year old years I think is a little premature.  And I agree with an earlier blogger, does anybody, Steve hopefully, know what has happened to Take Control (AP Indy-Azeri) who hasn't raced since end of 2009?

15 Mar 2011 9:26 PM
ROBINM

I agree with the support for Comma to the Top.  What a tough little horse!  That said, he's a sprinter..I wish his connections would forget the "Derby Trail" and run him where he can excel.

Remember Lost in the Fog?

15 Mar 2011 9:28 PM
Deacon

Courtland Simmons:  You will be most surprised when Uncle Mo wins the Derby by daylight. I am that confident.  Like his name or not he is the real deal. The horse didn't name himself and neither did Lil E. Tee who also won the Derby. What's in a name anyway?

I keep saying, horses for courses and I believe Uncle Mo has a very good shot at a triple crown. You heard it here first.......... :)

15 Mar 2011 9:41 PM
Alex'sBigFan

"Calling an audible" apparently is more a football term, I had to look it up since I am more of a horseracing and NBA fan, not a football fan.  It sounds like it should mean "hold a press conference" to announce something but it means changing a play.  At any rate, Jason's article said they were considering the Florida Derby for Mo and Steve thinks more the Wood Memorial.  Do we know for sure or have they (Pletcher or Repole) announced which one Mo will go in for sure yet?  I like Mo doing the Florida and Stay Thirsty doing the Wood for some reason, poor Stay Thirsty, like I said Mo is the better "training buddy" and ST has to take a back seat.  ST would be the one who would have to ship back then to NY

if he does go in the Wood.  Interesting to see what they decide.

15 Mar 2011 10:21 PM
Forbidden Apple

Alex's Big Fan,

Your War Horse story is very interesting, thank you for shairing it with us. I have Soldat #2 on my list, he will tell me much more in the FL Derby. You might want to consider a Greek warrior horse, Premier Pegasus. After the San Vicente, Premier Pegasus was breathing fire and stongly bowed his neck, announcing that he is ready for a battle!

15 Mar 2011 10:23 PM
illum

I saw the beyers for Pre-Peg 96 Dialed-in ran a 97 in FOY.Brisnet figures for Pre-Peg 100 at 1 1/16 Uncle Mo 96 at 1 mile.Looking at the beyer figures reminds me of why I dont think they are  reliable.The Beyers are not nearly as valuable since Beyer sold them to the form and they are available to anyone who goes to the track and buys a Racing Form.Pre-Pegs race in the SF is one of a horse that had to run close enough to a blazing pace and still had enough kick to win by 7 3/4 lengths.Dialed in bided his time in the back of the field in the FOY and ran hard 2 or 3 furlongs,his Beyer was 97 Pre-Pegs 96.The most impressive prep races run so far is between these two Dialed-in and Pre-Peg,there is no question about that.Uncle Mos race was still a public workout and his connections want to get to the derby undefeated.They hope that they draw well and have racing luck to be able to WIN the derby off two easy preps.I still think he could be a special horse so he could pull it off with the afore-mentioned racing luck.I think if he is a special horse a better bet with him in the derby is in the money but not to win at 5-2 or 3-1.If his odds are higher then IMO he will merit a straight win bet.

15 Mar 2011 10:36 PM
The Archman

I think that the White-haired devil will have JAYCITO ready to ramble on MAY 7. Watch him as he blows past sprinters like Mo and burros like Soldat.

15 Mar 2011 11:27 PM
Footlick

Robin M- would love to see him back on the grass.  What a deep contingent of turf runners this year out West.

16 Mar 2011 12:07 AM
Footlick

Carlos in Cali- my thought exactly.  Good call, imo.

16 Mar 2011 12:10 AM
Coldfacts

Forbidden Apple,

Kindly accept my apology for the late response to both your posts. I have been very busy and saw them late. You are amazing to have remembered my post at the point you mentioned. I have listed it below because I have seen comments that suggest that Premier Pegasus’s victory was due mainly to a pace meltdown:

Cold Facts: Posted, 08 Mar 2011 10:46 PM

Barry Boy,

“If the blinkers are removed from Premier Pegasus the race is over before it begins. A colt with two reported works in 4 months runs third beaten 3 lengths in 1:20 plus is going to be unbeatable with no one in the race to pressure him on the lead. All his rider has to do is get him to settle in a 1:11 to 1:12 pace and it over. Jaycito will be too close and will not catch him and the rest are pretenders.”

Forbidden Apple: posted, 12 Mar 2011 11:47 PM

Even though I don't always agree with what you write, I do read all of your comments and take out which parts interest me. I always tell you that I appreciate your hard work and research. Earlier this week I picked Comma To The Top to win the San Felipe. But that was before I purchased a DRF and got to see the horses in the paddock and post parade. When I noticed the front bandages and dull look to Comma To The Top, I began to search for another horse to play. I thought back to your post earlier this week when you talked about Premier Pegasus. "If the blinkers are removed from Premier Pegasus the race is over before it begins". I had a $40 WP ticket on Premier Pegasus and it pulled back the cash that I lost earlier in the day on Keertana and then some. I just wanted to say thank you and I hope you made a good score as well.

I expected the colt to be rated off the pace but I did not expect the crazy pace that unfolded. I am happy you were able to recover your earlier losses and I must again give you credit for remembering my statement. I not only caught the Premier Pegasus handsomely but the $48 - 49 extractor as well. For those who are trying to somehow diminish his victory, my prediction must be seen as profound. I cannot understand how it was not obvious to all that this colt was likely to be unbeatable if he reported right. As stated in my post apart from Jaycito the rest were pretenders. I think you are probably the only person that tolerates the stuff that I post and that make you very brave as I am considered crazy. I do not for one moment expect you or anyone else to agree with all my opinions or conclusions. I sometime wonder if I have my head to separate my ears based on some of the opinions I form from the data I transform into information.

In spite of hype about Uncle Mo, the derby start and end with horses from the RAISE A NATIVE sire line. This sire line has produced the winners of 43 Triple Crown race in the last 33 years. When a colt sired by a son of Mr. Prospector get beat in 1:20 plus for 7F and come back to run 1:34 plus for 8F and 1:41 for 8.5F he has to be respected. He required no pace meltdown to win. The question I would like the posters that have attributed his victory to the biggest pace meltdown I history to answer is: was he the only one fortunate enough to benefit from the pace meltdown? Three sons of Mr. P have sired derby winners and none of them were as accomplished as Fusaihie Pegasus. His dame sire Summer Squall is also dam sire of 2009 Belmont winner Summer Bird. Summer Squall as a broodmare sire is from the most successful broodmare sire line in Triple Crown history i.e., Northern Dancer. This broodmare line has produced 20 winners of TC races. One could not help but notice his majestic return to the winners’ enclosure and fire in his eyes. It’s hard to believe it was his first time around two turns. The benefits he will gain from this race will be immense.

I have no reservation in stating that Uncle Mo cannot beat this grandson of Mr. Prospector. How is he going to beat him? Any pace Uncle Mo sets this colt has the speed to stay with him. Will Uncle Mo’s turn of foot leave him dead in his wake? No! This colt has displayed 1:21 & 1:34 speed. Uncle Mo therefore will be up against a colt from a sire line that kills the oppositions and will have to be ultra exceptional to prevail.

With that said I do prefer his stable companion Riveting Reason the other son of Fusaihie Pegasus.

16 Mar 2011 12:45 AM
Coldfacts

Steve,

Alternation's dam earned over $500K and those are not the broodmares that produce derby winners.

Uncle Mo's dam earned $81K; Premier Pegasus dam earned $154K;  Dialed In's dam earned $74K and Soldat's dam was unraced. Those are the top four colts in your dozen.

16 Mar 2011 12:54 AM
love the game!

So sad that Rogue Romance is missing the Louisiana Derby.I would liked to have seen him run in that race,the others must be glad he's out!He didn't have the greatest trip in the Risen Star,yet he was a game third and looked like he had a lot left in the tank.I don't believe distance will be a problem for him,though I agree with Steve Haskin, that he has to inherit a quicker turn of foot.I don't worry about what race he runs in next(Arkansas or Bluegrass)I think he can race against anybody and have a great shot!Remember, he ran against( the already crowned champion by the media)Uncle Moe,and came in a respectable third,his first time on dirt.Hope his foot heals fast and doesn't ruin his chances to be in the derby!The sport needs good competitors to show up on Derby Day,run their hearts out and make the race exciting.If there's one thing I hate, is a one horse show!!!! Good Luck to Rogue Romance and any horse who can scare the saddle off of Uncle Moe and his connections on May 7th!!!!(win or lose)

16 Mar 2011 2:29 AM
JOE

Courtland Simmons,

          I agree with you I just do not see Uncle making a mile and a quarter.   In the timely Writer it looked like any of other horse were going to blow by him but did not and he was just walking along.  

16 Mar 2011 7:48 AM
JOE

Deacon,

         I just can not see Uncle going a mile and a quarter off anything I have seen from him.   That did not even look like a horse race but a warm up.  I would like to see Uncle Mo go to the Wood Memorial and get beat by Jaycito or Beamer or even Rogue Romance and even Bench Points.      

16 Mar 2011 7:54 AM
M-D

I must say, Coldfacts is singular (on this Blog) in his marshaling of evidence & facts to support his arguments/assessments--& for this reason I am often persuaded (more so than by others) by the strength of his arguments.

He follows the method so brilliantly described by Dr Stanley Fish in his always interesting Blog in the NY Times (see: opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/.../sos-your-old-man), one this has unfortunately fallen from favor in much of what passes for public discourse (in general & about politics in particular).

Hope you will keep up the "good work," Coldfacts!

16 Mar 2011 10:19 AM
LAZMANNICK

Deacon

I love the name Uncle Mo.  Mike Repole is an owner who relates to the everyday race track fan, down to earth, one of the guys……and he’s very genuine.  The name Uncle Mo to me represents the people, not race track hierarchy.  Sort of like Seabiscuit as opposed to War Admiral…….which to me represented the soldiers in the tranches and the commanders who stay well back of the fray and yet got all the glory.  Stay Thirsty is a great name too.  Love it and love the horses.  Hope they both represent themselves and their owner well.

16 Mar 2011 10:21 AM
Deacon

Joe:   Lots of folks never thought Smarty Jones would get the 10 furlongs and he should have won the triple crown. How many times in history have we said that a horse won't get the 10 furlongs, and lo & behold they go out and blow us away.  I just don't see anything out there that gives Uncle Mo any worries. Remember, the Derby is run at Churchill Downs and Uncle Mo has already proven he loves that race track.

I won't take a horse from the west coast mainly because the racing surfaces are so different. Sure, Premier Pegasus San Felipe win was impressive but it was run on the I-5 freeway. I like Uncle Mo running in the Blue Grass not the Wood Memorial, the layyer race concerns me. Time will tell we all know but my gut tells me Uncle MO is the real deal.

16 Mar 2011 11:39 AM
AndHereTheyComeDotcom

Premier Pegasus has 4 of 5 key pedigree traits in the proven winning derby profile. Buckpasser in first 5 generations, Raise A Native sire line, large heart trait of War Admiral and broodmare sire line of Northern Dancer. Pedigree wise he looks like a Ky. Derby winner.

16 Mar 2011 12:22 PM
SPLITS OF 12

RobinM: Who could ever forget that crooked white blaze on the face of a horse named Lost in the Fog. He is the fastest horse I've ever seen run live in Northern California. And that list includes some greats like Soviet Problem, Work the Crowd, Cavonnier, Event of the Year, PikePlaceDancer, Slew of Damascus, Emerald Jig and Smokey Stover. LITF, could run 6F in 1:08 in his sleep. As a three-year-old he won his first ten races traveling across country 7 times back and forth. He beat em at Calder, Saratoga, Belmont, Turf Paradise, Gulfstream, Golden Gate, Aqueduct and Churchill. He was a throwback to the old days when a horse would travel around and be showcased. Another thing about Lost in the Fog is that he was the favorite in every single one of his starts. He was truly all-racehorse, a very special animal, and I couldn't think of a better trainer for that horse than Greg Gilchrist. He is truly one of the best horsemen in this country.          

16 Mar 2011 1:47 PM
Forbidden Apple

Coldfacts,

I made my bet on Premier Pegasus with about 15 min. to post time. He was 10-1 and I knew that his 5-1 morning line made him a nice overlay. Also, I remembered your comments about the blinkers and he was clearly on his toes in the paddock. I have no excuse for missing the exacta, I only played a WP ticket on P. Pegasus. WP, doubles, and exactas are what bets I make most often. I have never been to thrilled by Jaycito and the 8/5 was a brutal price to accept. Again, after showing so much speed in sprints, I had written P.P. off as a sprinter. I don't mess around with the future wager bets. The overnight odds on Runflatout were 7/2, I was shocked. The pace of the race was sure to be blazing, Quinonez did a great job staying away from that mess up front. I know that you have been high on Riveting Reason all winter long. Mr. Cho must be as well since he entered his colt in the 2010 B. Cup Juvenile. I still prefer the explosiveness displayed by P. Pegasus. I'm also hoping that Sway Away runs a monster race this weekend, if he enters the Rebel. I like him to win and I'll play him over The Factor & ArchArchArch in the exacta. I don't think people see you as crazy, most of them are simply close minded and stuck on Uncle Mo. I have not heard one person point out that you picked Premier Pegasus on tuesday, 4 days before the race. Two of the experts on the handicapping show picked Premier Pegasus, but said they did not know what to make of the blinkers off. It is refreshing to see a lesser known trainer like Mr. Cho feel victory. And having 2 of his 7 horses on the Triple Crown trail is amazing!

16 Mar 2011 2:43 PM
sceptre

Enough already with the "large heart trait", "x-factor", etc. None of this has ever been proven with respect to scientific scrutiny. Let's stop stating this as if it were a fact.

16 Mar 2011 2:51 PM
Deacon

Coldfacts:

Joe:

       Althought bloodline is important it isn't necessarily the deciding factor whether a horse gets the 10 furlongs. The heart of a champion can not be measured by who your sire or dam is. We use the information as a measuring stick but it isn't the end all. I have stated many times on these blogs that I usually do not go out on a limb and make predictions. I also do not like betting on chalk, but sometimes it is better to get a win then a loss. Uncle Mo is going to be a champion. I see it in his looks, his demeanor and his professionlism. I also said barring injury I believe he is the next Triple Crown winner. If I am wrong then I will respectfully and willingly apologize. He just loves the surface at Churchill Downs, that BC Juvenille win was incredibly impressive and I love the way he is being brought along. The connections are gearing up for an exciting Triple Crown run.

Until the west coast runners can prove their mettle outside of California I am staying away from them. Right now, based off of what I have seen so far Soldat is Uncle Mo's toughest challenge. It is still early so anything can happen.

Lazmannick:  I agree, Uncle MO is a  people's name. I got no issues with it. Maybe it is not stately like Raise A Native or Bold Ruler or Sea the Stars but it works for me. Smarty Jones name wasn't all that impressive either but look how good the little guy was.....  

16 Mar 2011 3:13 PM
cuban chef de race

premier pegasus will never see those sprint like fractions in this derby,the only horse that can serve the table for him is the factor and that one stamina on his female line is very suspect [remember chef Seattle]and some of the top contenders for the derby have good tactical speed to challenge p.pegasus on the real dirt track,and this group don't have synthetic horses.    

16 Mar 2011 3:47 PM
cuban chef de race

some people think uncle mo is very vulnerable to win the derby because his sire is not a blue blood stallion,well his yellow blood sire lost the derby by a smaller margin then ice box shows finishing 2d in last year derby and uncle mo female line has aurora dam of 2 grade one winners not to mention stallions like danzig,kris s,Princequillo,dixieland band,alydar etc,as you can see he has more pedigree power then his own sire,i think pedigree wise he can win but my most evident concern with him is going to the derby with just one single two turn race,for me that is looking for trouble only big brown did it in the last 31 years and big brown was a one horse derby field,so he he has some pedigree to win[remember giacomo by holly bull]but history don't give you many chances to play with it.  

16 Mar 2011 4:23 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Splits of 12

  My sentiments exactly. Both Gilchrist (retired) and Lost In The Fog are in my thoughts a lot and I miss them. Two tremendous examples of the best of their breed. I think more could come closer to Lost In The Fog but tremendous sprinters are put on The Derby Trail which confuses them and takes away some of their heart. There are a few this year that could have taken the path to sprinting greatness but were pointed to The Derby Trail. It reamins to be seen how it turns out for them. Aleo and Gilchrist were adament that Lost In The Fog not point toward The Derby, and Aleo refused high offers from people that wanted to point him to The Derby. Gilchrist said he would sell if it was him only because the offers were exorbitant. After it was all said and done I'm sure he was very glad that Fog was never sold for any amount of money desite the tragic ending. He truly loved The Fog and Aleo and both are gone, taking some of his heart from his desire to be on the game.

16 Mar 2011 4:35 PM
redandblacksilks

Much is made about the fast times run at Santa Anita.  Many people seem to believe that the horses running those fast times will be able to duplicate them at Churchill Downs.  If you bet your bankroll based on this premise you will go broke.  There is no similarity between the two tracks.  Santa Anita is a very fast surface and tends to produce that produces fractions like 21 and change, 44 and change, 109 and change for horses running 1 1/16 miles or farther.  Those fractions for a horse going long at churchill will result in a frontrunner/pace presser stopping in the stretch at Churchill.  Not only is the track at Churchill much slower it also tends to be a little cuppy and many horses don't care for the surface.  It is just one other variable to consider when you start handicapping Derby horses.

16 Mar 2011 4:36 PM
Johnny

Okay please watch all of U.M races and show me were he got dirt kicked in his face got pinched or and other things that happen in the kentucky derby..

If he brakes like he did in his last race he will be 17th going into the turn race over.

I am not debating the horses talent just his "what the hell just happened to me and can I recover attitude"

Soldat  

16 Mar 2011 5:15 PM
cuban chef de race

premier Pegasus's sire won the san felipe in a hand ride the horse he beat there then won the santa anita derby with a 110! beyer then fusaichi went to the east and won the wood in another hand ride with an 111 !beyer then won the derby in handy fashion fusaichi pegasus did cost $2.000,000 premier pegasus did cost $ 22,000 what the buyers did see in the father? well the derby purse is $2.000,000 go for it,i will be watching you boy.

16 Mar 2011 5:40 PM
zarvona

Good news for those if us hanging on with hopes of a "To Honor and Serve" surrection, G. Gomez one of easily the top 5 jockeys in the country now has the ride. That's great news to me being one of his strong supporters.  

16 Mar 2011 5:45 PM
sceptre

Steve,

I realize that it's impossible for you to "police" every bit of information offered on your blog. It's also hard for me to discern what are the responsibilities of blog authors as it relates to blog posters. I have to assume that the intent/puropose of this blog is a bit more than mere entertainment and anything goes. With that said, how do you tolerate some of COLDACTS' offerings? You know full well that many of his "facts" and assumptions from his "facts" are blatant distortions of reality. And just look at the number of posters that swallow it all! For one, why not call him to task about his fiction that the offspring of better/elite racemares have a far lesser chance of producing a Derby winner. It's so easy to point out that approx. only 1/2000 female foals are G-I SWs, approx. 3/1000 are Graded SWs, that there has only been 136 KY Derbys, and that within the past 50 or so years we've had KY Derby winners out of the likes of Two Lea (multiple Champion), Glowing Tribute (multiple Grade-II SW), and Tuerta (top class G-III SW). And this but a small retort to all the nonsense he offers.  

16 Mar 2011 5:51 PM
Alex'sBigFan

Deacon,

I agree about Uncle Mo, the colt so far has done nothing wrong.  He did his job in the Timely and he can't help what race they put him in.  He has certainly shown the "consistency" factor I look for each year.  He does look like a professional out there and looks physically impressive as well.  And he has that "big 'ol personality" and charisma too.  I can't commit him just yet as the Derby winner.  If he can't handle the traffic jam at least he's got one thing in his favor, we know he can get himself over that track's surface well and that could help him regain his footing in that traffic.  I am torn between him and Soldat right now.  And with Soldat's high Tomlinson he should glide over Churchill's cuppiness as well.

And that cuppiness may as R&BSilks says slow down the Cali. horses, I've said it myself too.  Speaking of the heart of a champion that points to their sire, Alex's two kids, Elite Alex and Sway Away better show me soon just what they are made of!

16 Mar 2011 6:18 PM
cuban chef de race

bring a speed gun to derby preps,premier Pegasus's SF 96 beyer fusaichi Pegasus's SF 108! the father beat the son by 6!! lengths wow,that is class in the sire not class in the dam,i hope to be right soon.    

16 Mar 2011 6:35 PM
predict

Interesting top twelve, and certainly Uncle Mo deserves top billing at this time. I would like to add The Factor to this ranking and believe that after The Rebel, others will too. Only Uncle Mo has equalled the Beyers of The Factor. If War Front's Soldat can sit in the top five on this list, then I propose that The Factor will join him there after he shows his brilliance this weekend. We know this horse can sprint, no doubt about it, but there is no reason to believe that he cannot carry his speed longer. I especially love seeing Icecapade as a dam great grandsire and can only hope that this great gray has produced another great gray in The Factor. Icecapade was a half to Ruffian, and also Buckfinder. This to me brings a strong desire to win races "factor", along with the ability to do it, and a strong sturdiness "factor", that can carry this horse through the Triple Crown. I only hope he proves me right this weekend, I can't wait.

16 Mar 2011 6:43 PM
cuban chef de race

don't worry on archarcharch at 30 to 1 now he will be 500 to 1 on derby day ,relax is okey.

16 Mar 2011 7:13 PM
Coldfacts

Deacon,

Your points are valid and well noted. I do not only used bloodline to target a must play horse in the derby. I loved 50-1 Giacomo and played him. His blood line was not fashionable. I love 45-1 Bluegrass Cat and played him. His blood line was stellar. I liked Ice Box his blood line was also good. What I lookout for are exceptional things that horses do that the average person misses. What exactly do I mean by this? A couple of examples: Giacomo – He had very little early speed and was doing all his racing on fast CA strips. He had to be used early in his races to keep pace.  In spite of being used early he still had enough stamina to close with energy against some very fast CA colts. He earned enough graded funds to make it to the derby. At 10F on fair track I regarded his stamina be a major plus. The rest is history. Bluegrass Cat - He was the runner up in the 2006 Tampa Bay Derby. It was discovered after the race that he lost a front shoe. One would never know that this occurred as he was resolute to the line. He showed a lot of heart in spite of the discomfort he must have been felling. In spite of his dismal Bluegrass Stakes I stuck with him and was rewarded with a $500 exactor. Ice Box – He won the Florida Derby without changing leads. He was so tired at the completion of the race there was no gallop ou,t he just came to a halt. He was head close home and although very tired he fought back to regain the lead. I was sold on those colts for the little thing that I consider significant.

I am very high on Riveting Reason not for proven derby pedigree but for his heart. Very few colts on the derby trail have been subjected to his 2YO schedule. After his debut on 07/31/2010, he started on average every 23 days in an eight trace sequence. Without maiden victory to his credit and two previous G1 losses he was entered in the G1 BCJ. It was his first start on dirt and first time with blinkers. It didn’t matter to him as he was the quickest into stride and let the race for 6F. After being passed by Uncle like he was glued to the ground he still battled on. Nineteen days after his bad 18L beating in the BCJ he was back to the track to break his maiden in an 8.5F race. Twenty 23 days later he was again on the track in the G1 Cash Call and again he was beaten albeit by only 61/2L. That was his 7th race and 4th G1. He returned to the races an amazing 11 days later in an 8F allowance to be to be beaten by 1/2L in 1:35 flat. Consider the following; No other colt coming out of the BCJ returned to the races for the remainder of 2010. He made 3 starts covering 25 furlongs with an average rest period of 17 days. He returned from a 44 days’ rest for his 3YO debut in a 9F G11 race and got beat by a nose 1n 1:48.63. This colt is a machine and I am the only one that seems to know.

“Uncle Mo is going to be a champion. I see it in his looks, his demeanor and his professionalism. I believe he is the next Triple Crown winner.”

Is he that impressive? Those are bold predictions for a colt with such little foundation and a trainer that has won one derby from about 29-30 starters over 10YRS. Somehow Tood Pletcher who claims he need 4 week between races is going to condition a TC winner. I cannot see that happening. Uncle Mo good but not great and he will be beaten in the derby as he does not have a 10F pedigree. There are some serious colts out there are improving rapidly and are better bred to run10F.

“Until the west coast runners can prove their mettle outside of California I am staying away from them”

Premier Pegasus sire won the derby and his dam sire was 2nd in the derby. His bloodline has roots at Churchill Downs. A colt with his pedigree should not be displaying so much speed. He showed that he can relax and use the speed when necessary. Uncle Mo is not going to be able to shake this colt and will not be able to out run him. The good ones from the RAN sire line are no joke. He also has a trainer that  is far more dangerous than Tood Pletcher just ask Speedy Bob.

“Right now, based off of what I have seen so far Soldat is Uncle Mo's toughest challenge.”

If a colt that ran the slowest FOY in the last 5YRS is Uncle Mo’s greatest danger then he surely cannot win the derby. Soldat is slow by derby standards and will not hit the derby board.

16 Mar 2011 7:25 PM
ROBINM

Splits of 12 & Dr. Drunkinbum;

Wonderful comments about "Foggy", Gilchrist and Mr Aleo.  They did right by the horse and he responded in spades.

There are some marvelous sprinters still (apparently) on the TC Trail.  I wish their connections would take a page out of the Gilchrist/Aleo book.

16 Mar 2011 8:51 PM
Alex'sBigFan

I just had time to read the article about Ducky.  Did any of you guys really read this thing yet or should I say read between the lines of this thing?  It sounds as if Ducky is just a commodity bought at quite a price by Kadyrov, who sounds as if he wants to compete with Sheikh M. buying up U.S. horseflesh.  Whew.  Poor Ducky.  Didn't they love Ducky?  Here again money is the bottom line, not the horse's welfare.  What happened to his original owners?  And now all of a sudden Ducky may be entered in the Russian Derby?  Who knows maybe this Kadyrov could give Ducky a good life but I kind of wish Ducky would play that kid's game of Duck Duck Goose and duck himself the heck out of there.  Ducky had two Monmouth wins buts that's not good enough for him to live here?  So now Ducky is in Dubai, then probably shipping to Russia, and all this change is good for the horse?  Ok, maybe I am wrong, but I say poor Ducky.

16 Mar 2011 8:57 PM
Alex'sBigFan

Dr. D,

Oh my gosh, Lost In The Fog was awesome.  I was in Saratoga for one of his wins and took a photo of the owners in the Winner's Circle.  One of them held up a CA auto license plate that said, LOST IN FOG.  They looked so proud of him that day.  It was so so touching.

16 Mar 2011 9:07 PM
zarvona

 Potential mentioned runners:

    The Gr. II $300K REBEL STAKES:  

      1 1/16   OP -3/19/11: (basically a prep for the Ark. Derby)

        “Alternation” ; “Archarcharch” ; “Bluegrass Jam” ;

        “Caleb’s Posse” ; “Dreamingofthewin” ; “Elite Alex” ;

        “Glint” ; “J.P.’s Gusto” ; “J.W. Blue” ; “Nehro” ;  

        “Picko’s Pride” ; “Prime Cut” ; “Saratoga Red” ;

        “Sway Away” ; “The Factor” ;

Keeping up a Scorecard anyone?

    As some few might be otherwise interested, where others only care a day or two before a race or on race day itself, here I shall consider the remaining Major prep schedule as of -3/15/11 and those “either seemingly committed”,--signified by no closed brackets “ { } ”,--or those whom have been hinted via some other source as becoming potential entrants at this point--signified by closed brackets “ { } ”,--in one or two of the so following lists major prep events. Thusly, regarding the earnings race, among those still remaining as potential possibilities for one of limited, yet large fielded 20 gate slots for the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby.  

    The Gr. II $1million $$ LOUISIANA DERBY:

      1 1/8    FG  -3/26/11:

         {“Decisive Moment”}; “Duca” ; “Left” ; “Machen” ;  

         “Mucho Macho Man” ; {“Nacho Business”};  

                {“Nacho Saint”}; “Quiet Assault” ;

    The Gr. III $500K Vinary Racing Spiral STAKES:  

      1 1/8   TP -3/26/11:

         {“Premier Pegasus”}; {“Soar”}; {“Twinspired”};

    The Gr. III $800K SUNLAND DERBY:  

      1 1/8   OP -3/27/11:

         {“Astrology};  {“Beer Miester”};

    The Gr. I $1million $$ FLORIDA DERBY:  

      1 1/8  GP -4/3/11:

         {“Arch Traveler”}; {“Decisive Moment”}; “Dialed In” ;

         {“Flashpoint”}; {“Gourmet Dinner”}; “Soldat”;

         “Stay Thirsty” ; “To Honor and Serve” ;  {“Uncle Mo”};

]

    The Gr. I $750K WOOD MEMORIAL:  

        1 1/8   AQU -4/9/11:

         {“Arch Traveler”};  “Silver Medallion” ; {“Uncle Mo”};

         {“Wilkinson”};

     The Gr. III $500K ILLINOIS DERBY:  

      1 1/8   HAW -4/9/11:

         {“Nacho Saint”}; “Toby’s Corner” ; {“Watch Me Go”};

    The Gr. I $1million $$  SANTA ANITA DERBY:

      1 1/8   SA -4/9/11:

         “Anthony’s Cross” ; “Bench Points” ; {“Gourmet Dinner”};

         “Jaycito” ; {“Premier Pegasus”};

          {“Riveting Reason”}; “Thirtyfirststreet” ;

    The Gr. I $750K TOYOTA BLUE GRASS:

      1 1/8   KEE -4/9/11:

         “Santiva” ;

    The Gr. I $1million $$  ARKANSAS DERBY:  

      1 1/8   OP -4/9/11:

         “Rogue Romance” ;  

  NO COMMITMENT yet from or now possibly ‘off the trail’???:

      “Achaemenes” ; “Ashbjornson” ; Albergatti”; “Awesome Patriot” ;

      “Brethren” ; “Bandbox” ; “Cal Nation” ; “Cloud Man” ; “Crimson Knight” ;

      “Escort” ; “Free Entry” ; “Fusa Code” ; “Inhisglory” ; “Jakesam” ;

      “Joes Blazin Aaron” ; “Little Drama” ; “Majestic Harbor” ;

      “Mr. Commons” ; “Praetereo” ; “Private Prize”;  “Quail Hill” ;  

      “Rattlesnake Bridge” ; “Razmataz” ; “Red Sharp Humor” ;  

      “Runflatout” ; “Rush Now” ; “San Pablo” ; “Sensational Slam” ;

      “Sovereign Default” ; “Uncle Brent” ; “Wilburn” ; or “Willcox Inn” ;  

16 Mar 2011 9:11 PM
Alex'sBigFan

Shuttling for a season:

Smarty Jones to Uruguay

Bluegrass Cat to Chile

E Dubai (Mr. Prospector's son) to Argentina

Permanent:

Sweet Ducky to Russia via Dubai

Who's next?

16 Mar 2011 9:20 PM
Quiet American 55

Gomez on THAS, thinking it's a one race assignment.  These are large purses and Anderson & Mott have some history together.  Thinking the FL Derby is a major focus for those connections as well with their breeding presence in state.  Speculating GO GO will be on the Sway Away on May 7.  Steve - you are doing a fine job with your lists, let some of those comments roll right off...  Comment above about the Bernardini's - might be a little early for conclusions on his crop.  Expecting Sway Away and Elite Alex to show up big on SAT.

16 Mar 2011 10:35 PM
jon

I wonder why King Congie isn't on the list? He took a few tries to win, and then graduated from maiden to stakes. Looks like an improving possibility.

Jaycito

may be an upset winner if that speed can be harnessed. I watched the BC Juvenile and he was very wide, dropped back then closed. Looks like a Belmont horse. Blinkers on...he'll make Pegasus look like a trotter.

Premier Pegasus-

benefitted from a collapsing pace in the San Felipe, not because of talent. One writer posited that that this colt ran the last quarter in 31 and change. Compare that Uncle Mo's 22.87...not sure why people are refusing to see this colt is not a Derby horse....he was tiring, just not as fast as the rest of the field.

Any claimer named Crimson....

Sir Barton was a maiden when he won the Derby in 1919, and then swept the Triple Crown. Point here is that the surprises often come from way under the radar. I could care less about Watch Me Go...another one hit wonder.

Uncle Mo-has a tendency to run each quarter faster than the one preceding it, which Secretariat did in the Belmont. Also, Mo can't run the long distances supposedly, but then neither could Secretariat. We know how that turned out. 31 length winner of the Belmont...from a Bold Ruler colt.  Same deal with John Henry, whose sire was Ole Bob Bowers...who? Exactly...pedigree is not a guarantee.

16 Mar 2011 11:16 PM
cuban chef de race

eskendereya most be telling uncle mo stay away from Churchill downs my reputation is intact by getting hurt at the right time kid.  

16 Mar 2011 11:35 PM
jared

Greetings Steve,

As always, great stuff from you and your readers.  One comment, I am very surprised there is not a lot more Derby chatter about Wilkinson.  Any guesses why nobody seems interested in him?  Vegas too. ..about a month ago he was 150-1 as a future book prospect.

17 Mar 2011 12:40 AM
love the game

I also read the article about Sweet Ducky,felt exactly the same way as alex's biggest fan.Don't get why this Kadyrov would spend lots of money on a horse that, I feel, hasn't proven himself yet.This guy scares me,if he has human rights issues do you think he's gonna care about a horse.I wish the best for Ducky,but something tells me if things don't pan out,he may end up in Siberia or worse.These owners are obviously in this game strictly for the love of money not for the love of horseracing and these animals.

Smarty Jones, I've read,is leaving in July for Uraguay, for their breeding season(by popular demand)and will return back home to Stoneridge Farms in Pa. around Xmas.in time for our breeding season.It's one thing to be loaned out versus being sold out!!!!!

17 Mar 2011 1:26 AM
Coldfacts

To THE MIGHTYMO CREW, ignore members of the RAN CLAN at your own peril.  Ten years of history cannot be wrong. There have been some bold predictions about The Mighty Mo and disrespectful statement about the remaining member of the Derby class of 2011. I think the time has come to enlighten The Mighty Mo Crew as those who live in hope will invariably see these hopes dashed by the most powerful force in Triple Crown history.

In the last 10 years colts sired by Raise A Native line stallions have won 21 of the 30 Triple Crown races contested. Ironically the numbers of wins in each of the TC races is seven. Irrespective of how one wants to discount bloodline, those number are overwhelming. For those who think these cold facts are fiction listed below is the RAN CLAN score card:

DERBY: Super Saver, Mine That Bird, Street Sense, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, War Emblem, Monarchos.

PREAKNESS: Lookin At Lucky, Curlin, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, War Emblem, Point Given.

BELMONT: Drosselmeye, Summer Bird, Jazil, Afleet Alex, Birdstone, Empire Maker, Point Given.

There is a tendency for us to ask the wrong questions and we are all probably guilty of asking WHY?  When the question should have been WHY NOT? Just where am I going with this? Well, the question that is on the lips of most is whether The Mighty Mo can be denied the roses. Based on the score card above the obvious question should be, can member of the RAN CLAN be stopped? Many have tried to stop them and have failed. Storm Cat and his 100 plus sons have tried and failed. Storm Cat is now retired. A P Indy and his many sons have tried and have failed. Other not so stellar sire lines have tried and have also failed. Now it’s Indian Charlie’s turn to deny the most powerful force in Triple Crown history another victory.

I do not think The Mighty Mo Crew recognized of the task at hand. How could they? They have been busy counting their chickens before they have been hatched; smelling the roses before  they have come into bloom and making plans to pick Black-eyed Susan’s before the greatest two minutes in sport is completed. A sire line that has won seven of the last 10 Derbies, Preakness and Belmont’s is not going to go away because a particular colt shows flashes of brilliance.  The RAN CLAN has encountered and crushed similar opposition before. The RAN CLAN has been there and done that. Even when the CLAN members from a particular crop appear to be weak, there is always one that rises to the occasion. The RAN CLAN’s dominance will not be stopped by a one with very little foundation; a suspect 10F pedigree and a trainer with a 1 from 28-29 derby record over the last 10yrs. Listed below is the class of 2011 that will is likely to be defending the honor of the Raise A Native Clan.

Alternation, Elite Alex, Gourmet Dinner, Jaycito, Machen, Premier Pegasus, Riveting Reason, Fusa Code, Rogue Romance, Sway Away, Behold de Buy, Wilkinson, Norman Asbjornson.

There are some in the list that may bring laughter to many but once the blood of Raise A Native is in their veins they are no laughing matter. It is the will to win that has been the driving force behind the success of the RAN CLAN. This will is inspired by the ghost of Native Dancer whose only loss came in the derby with an extremely troubled trip. It is hard enough to beat talented colts and when an unseen force is added to the equation the take at hand become even more difficult. Ignore the RAN CLAN at your own peril.

17 Mar 2011 2:36 AM
Deacon

Coldfacts:  This is horse racing, a case can be made for every horse in pretty much every race. It's a sport built on passion and perhaps instinct. Some horses affect certain people differently. I have said in 3 blogs that I normally do not make predictions and go out on a limb. I stay pretty neutral on most all blogs. I throw my 2 cents in when I can. Uncle Mo has the look of a champion, not only will

he get the 10 furlongs, I believe he will do it impressively.  This is not a BOLD prediction, just the opinion of a racing fan who has been around this business since 1956. I have seen pretty much ecery great horse run during these past 55 years. I saw Swaps win the Santa Anita Derby, I was also at Santa Anita when Johnny Longden rode and won his last race aboard George Royal. I watched Majestic Prince, Spectacular Bid, Damascus, Buckpasser, Dr. Fager, Ack Ack, and the list is endless. I feel because of my age and tenure I can make an opinion based on instinct. I could be wrong, I am cetainly not a guru, but I believe that Uncle Mo will win the Derby handily and quite possibly the Triple Crown. If I am mistaken, then I will gladly apologize.

Lastly, in my opinion there are certain times and certain races that bloodline plays a major factor. I do not think that the Kentucky Derby is one of those times. Every connection in the world points towards this one race. The owners and trainers pull out all the stops to win it. That is one reason why longshots usually win. Chalk is thrown out the window...... good luck to all.      

17 Mar 2011 2:50 AM
Coldfacts

Sceptre,

The self appointed Blog Tzar whose Terms of Reference is to expose those who feed misinformation to the vulnerable less informed.

I do believe you owe Mr. Haskins supporters an apology for classifying them as “Less Informed”

Against my better judgment I will respond to yet another attack on my views, opinions and cold facts. I will try to restrain myself as I normally do not waste my formal vocabulary and time on those I consider unworthy of same. It is unfortunate that the response you deserve cannot be put into words that would be displayed in this forum. It is exceedingly clear that the contents of my posts have driven you crazy. Only craziness could have led you to question Mr. Haskin as to why certain posters are not censored. Mr. Blog Tzar it appears you are unaware that you have exceed your Term of Reference. Let me see if I understand. You require Mr. Haskins to evaluate what is misinformation and exclude same from his blog. Well the pair you have must be significantly bigger than you brain.

You clearly have an issue with this poster. I have never seen a request to censor a poster whose views are in no way offensive to anyone. I cannot understand why you are of the opinion that the stuff I post influences the decision making of others. I recognize the adverse impact they have on you and for this you have my humblest apology. I further cannot understand why you continue to torture yourself. I am sure you are aware you have the option that many have exercised and that is to bypass my posts. This is not a forum for match makers.  Most of Mr. Haskin’s supporters think I am crazy and mostly ignore the contents of my posts. You are unaware of this because you are too busy exposing misinformation to the less informed. Mr. Haskin probably thinks I am crazy as well but understandably he is not expected to make such a disclosure. You could adopt his policy of diplomacy and stopped being a cry baby. Just as there is no crying in base ball, crying in not allowed on these blogs.

Mr. Haskin allows rebuttals of comments, views and facts presented by his supporters and this forms the foundation for meaningful exchanges. Instead of attacking me try presenting you rebuttal facts in a civil manner and let us have a meaningful exchange. The foundation for this was destroyed before it was laid. However, I can think of no one else that deserves forgiveness as you know not what you do.

NB: The average earnings for derby winning broodmares in the last four decade are listed below:

2001 – 2010     $112,901 (Highest Earnings $277K)

1991-  2000      $ 87,223 (Highest Earnings $231K)

1981 – 1990     $ 91,046 (Highest Earnings $126K)

1971 – 1980     $ 10,825  (Highest Earnings $34K )

In the last 40YRS there has been possibly one G1winnng broodmare that has produced a derby winner. In the last 76 YRS there have been either two or three G1 mares that have produced derby winners. The highest earning derby winning broodmare is Wishing Well the dam of Sunday Silence ( Earnings $382K).  No million dollar earners have produced derby winners and only one possibly two Kentucky Oaks winners have produced derby winners in the last 76 years.

What does all of this mean? Nothing to the average thoroughbred enthusiast; Can G1 million dollars earners produce derby winners? Yes but unlikely as they are bred for the commercial value of the resulting foal and not for wining classics. These are my views only. I use the above information to eliminate horses from the derby top spot. Nobody else has to. Stick to your own system if it works and use cold facts as you see fit.

17 Mar 2011 4:39 AM
SaratogaDreamin

Alex,

You act as though the life Sweet Ducky will now have is somehow inferior to how he was living  here in the states...Oh wait a minute......., he's now owned by a billionaire Russian, who probably can afford to take of him at LEAST similarly...least you forget this is a sport, just like football or baseball, etc...atheletes get traded all the time, and in case you just woke up, this sport is very expensive, The former owners(the Halls') have lots of money Im sure, but they also have a large operation, which costs substancial dollars to run. In case you missed it, this is the third 3yr old they've sold to overseas interest in the last few years...just because you run this as a "business" doesn't mean you in anyway care less about the horses.

17 Mar 2011 7:51 AM
Fran Loszynski

To Alex's Big Fan:

There are places that still are on the border of horseracing and perhaps these great champions will get more fans it's way. I see it that way. Yes we will miss them but more people will get to see them and know about them. Of course if someone said to me "Hey did you hear Afleet Alex is going to Turkey", I'd probably kidnap Alex and put him in my backyard!!! So you have a good point too.

17 Mar 2011 8:32 AM
Slew

Wow! So much to catch up on.  I must say...Uncle Mo has impressed me.  He athletically rebuffed the bump, relaxed on front, purposefully slowing down the pace, and rallied to drive home beautifully.  Once he started to really run, he seemed air borne most of the time.  It was beautiful!  My one hesitation remains how hard he pounds the ground, and will his knees survive it.  Premier Pegasus ran THE most impressive race.  My only questions here are...did he peak too soon?  Was that his best?  Can he do it again?...as well?  I still think To Honor And Serve will come back better.  I'll be looking to Archarcharch for a repeat performance, and can't wait to see what Alternation can do.  There are still so many to keep an eye on..and not that many preps left.  It would seem, at this time, that Uncle Mo towers over his rivals.  Silver Medallion is off my radar simply for the very slow times of his last race.  Happy St Patrick's day!

17 Mar 2011 9:12 AM
KazHoshay

I am a big fan of Pletcher and really like Uncle Mo, but like his sire I am not fully sold on Uncle Mo's ability to get 10 fur. admittingly he looks more classier than his sire. I am really impressed with Premier Pegasus, but I am concerned about a barely part time trainer having him peak on Derby day, for this reason I am looking elsewhere. The winner of the Derby will come from the trio of Soldat, Dialed in & To honor & serve. Subject to their final prep I am sticking to Soldat.

17 Mar 2011 9:14 AM
Inquiry

Steve I wanted to get your professional opinion on this work out schedule by dialed in.....I am his biggest fan and I can't understand what there doing with these works every so often.....I think the horse was a bit short last out also.. now zits is saying he gave him a 2 min lick and he will work next week....im not saying nick doesn't know what he's doing but im just baffled by the pattern... if he were in bafferts barn he would be working 5 furlongs in 56 at gulfstream :).......so what do you think?

17 Mar 2011 10:02 AM
Barbara

Borel an awful jockey??????????  WHERE did that come from???

17 Mar 2011 10:41 AM
Footlick

Slew- thank you.  I think his knee action is high, which makes him pound the ground with his front legs. I  was wondering if anybody else thought so also.  It used to be indicative of a turf horse.

17 Mar 2011 10:48 AM
Fran Loszynski

Watch Calvin Borel pet his horses even if they lose a race. He bonds with every horse he rides. Calvin Borel can eat a sandwich, drink a glass of milk in the saddle and stil steere a horse to victory with his knees. This jockey just loves racehorses. He's the "Louisiana Man!" When he rode Mine That Bird, we may see the exact same thing in the Rebel Stakes, hold your breath!

17 Mar 2011 12:23 PM
Steve Haskin

Inquiry, I dont know what to make of it either. You always have to wonder about a horse's soundness or constitution when they work so infrequently. With only 4 career starts I'd like to see more from him in the morning.

17 Mar 2011 12:24 PM
El Kabong

Coldfacts,

Last year you were bolding going where no man dared to go, predicting the decline of the great RAN sire line angle...

Coldfacts Apr. 2010: "The Raise A Native sire line has duplicated the record of the Nasrullah sire line with its 7 derby winner in 10 years. Based on that factor I am expecting the RAN sire to commence a decline in 2010. " Super Saver gave that the El Kabongski!

Ahh but you have come full circle on that line of bold reasoning and I applaud your 180. But, you did miss in your Ran class of 2011 a very talented colt who has the RAN influence on his Dam, as well as, his Sire line. How could you ignore such a champion pedigree in your usually thorough analysis of this formidable bloodline which will allow this colt to render his critics to be Real Quiet on May 7th.

17 Mar 2011 1:36 PM
Forbidden Apple

jon,

You don't have a clue about what you are writing. Maybe you need to watch some old film of the immortal Secretariat. You sound more foolish with every new post. And by the way, stop saying that Premier Pegasus ran his final quarter in 31 seconds. From 6f to 1 mile, his quarter was 25.57, the last 1/16 was run in 6.68. He was in a jog, not tiring, the race was put away with ease. I think it's time for some new glasses pal.

17 Mar 2011 2:31 PM
SPLITSOF12

Coldfacts:I would like to know if any of the 2011 Derby contenders have RAN on their broodmare sire line? I know that Mine That Bird and Barbaro, most recently did, and I believe Real Quiet and MTB each had the RAN bloodline on both sides of their families. Anyways, the numbers don't lie, 21-9 to be exact, research well done, but now that the ten year study is over, the question you have to ask, is do you think Uncle Mo is ready to start a new trend?      

17 Mar 2011 2:35 PM
cuban chef de race

when you are playing catch up in the derby the horse most work when he needs it no when the trainer wants it,dialed in have not been properly prepare for a race like this one,in my opinion zito is looking for the florida derby money not the derby glory,he knows dialed in is running on three legs right now.  

17 Mar 2011 3:07 PM
cuban chef de race

if astrology was an indian charly son people probably do not waist time mentioning him but he most me happy to be an indy son even when he has ran like a turtle,that is the classic example of your father can take you there and forget if by car,by plane or walking.    

17 Mar 2011 3:48 PM
cuban chef de race

if you think riveting reason can beat premier pegasus then uncle mo can beat secretariat! riveting reason was destroyed by uncle mo kid.

17 Mar 2011 4:04 PM
cuban chef de race

sway away has good talent he close his races in 12 1/5 etc but he did close with that fraction and lost with a horse that closed in 13 0/0 flat! what do you think about that? may be the factor is better then the San vicente.

17 Mar 2011 4:11 PM
cuban chef de race

just a California example if premier pegasus was running in the Real Quite San felipe he was about to loose by more then 6 lengths!! wow he better improve next time because the competition will be stronger then jaycito and company for sure.

17 Mar 2011 4:27 PM
Alex'sBigFan

Saratoga Dreamin,

I am fully aware of the amount of money it takes in the horse industry.  I did not "just wake up" as you state, my friend is one of America's top 20 breeders.  I did state also that I could be wrong and that the Chechen President may very well take care of Ducky and I said he may give him a good life. That does not mean it will happen.

I've been a sports fan and athlete all my life and I know all too well about trading athletes.  I am just trying to step into the horses' shoes and speak as a voice for them, that's all.  I know how much heart and money Sheikh M. invests in this sport and we need him.  I also know people who have traversed the Chechen countryside and the stories I heard were not great.  If they think Ducky can endure 3 countries, U.S., Dubai, and Russia, win the Dubai Cup and the Russian Derby, then the whole TC should have been a piece of cake for unproven Ducky.  I only question what happens to Ducky if he does not perform well and hope that Mr. Chechen President still takes care of him regardless of Ducky's monetary performances.  Athletes get traded for huge dollars all the time, yes, I watch international soccer all the time and Barcelona, the English leagues, etc. but this athlete in question, Ducky, has no voice.  You are entitled to your opinion and I am entitled to mine, it may be an inferior life "over there" for Ducky as opposed to living here, it certainly is for a lot of the humans.  I wonder what the statistics are on how many US thoroughbreds were traded overseas and never heard of again?

17 Mar 2011 5:46 PM
Paula Higgins

Fran Loszynski, I am feeling exactly what you are feeling about the Japanese tragedy, the effect on its people and the men fighting the nuclear meltdown. Pretty much heartwrending. They are a brave people.

Coldfacts, ignore him. He had no right to attack your opinions. The only censor on this board is Steve and he only does it when it is appropriate. I enjoy your posts.

Still love Uncle Mo though !!

17 Mar 2011 5:52 PM
JOE

Coldfacts,

After reading your blogs I had to take a nap.    You can write.

17 Mar 2011 6:15 PM
Alex'sBigFan

Fran L. & love the game,

Thanks for the nice comments and support.  Fran, it's time for the 2 sons of Alex to step up to the plate this weekend, it is now or never.  Going to be so exciting, so enjoy it!

Dr. D,

Well, your Factor is in the Rebel too against the Alex boys.  And we get a 13 horse field too, more similar to the Derby scenario.  Martin Garcia, Lucky's jock, is up on Factor!  He's young and he is good.  Maybe we'll see "Speedy Bob" (I love when Coldfacts says that!) on tv.  Fran is right, this is going to be a nailbiter!  Hope they all come home safe.

17 Mar 2011 6:22 PM
Alex'sBigFan

Saratoga Dreamin,

I refer you to an article in the LA Times entitled "Chechen Tiger Without A Chain."  It comes up by

googling, maybe written a year or so ago.  Read this and let me know if you think Ducky is in good hands.  I rest my case.

17 Mar 2011 7:14 PM
illum

If you are depending on beyer speed figures for the california horses,you might not be aware that beyer had a strong belief that while they had AW tracks there would never be a derby winner prepping on AW tracks from California. Beyer was not very fond of having to create new variants for the new surfaces.Btw in 2009 pioneer of the nile was my horse and beyer said he wouldnt even be close.The winner that year Mine that  Bird didnt have his last prep on AW but most of his graded earnings were won on AW in Canada at Woodbine.I dont know why but you dont see the huge Beyers anymore from even a decade ago.

17 Mar 2011 8:08 PM
El Kabong

Splitsof12

www.pedigreequery.com

Enter your horse name and find out what you need to know about pedigree.

Mind That Bird had the Broodmare Ran Line only. Only Real Quiet had the ran line on both sides. There is a contender this year with such a pedigree RAN on both sides, but Coldfacts has dismissed him as too slow. I think the colt will prove him wrong in the Florida Derby.

17 Mar 2011 8:40 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Alex'sBigFan

  The Rebel is a fascinating race. And a full field !!! I'm not only a big fan of The Factor but of Archarcharcharcharch, Sway Away and Elite Alex also. It's going to be a tough one. Then there is Alternation and JP's Gusto both of whom are also talented. Someone else will probably jump up and show something also. The Factor has shown no sign of being able to get the lead and control the pace with moderate fractions but if he does, watch out. So far he's just all out speed. He can't do that for 8.5f unless he's got incredible stamina and courage. I hope both of the Afleet Alex sons show something special, and I always root for Jon Court, and Arch... has the pedigree. I really like the passion and compassion of your posts. I'm glad that you don't let anyone deter you from your judgement. I feel the frustration too. It will take people speaking out to help solve racing's problems so continue your voice. The overuse of medications is ridiculous, and a great initial starting point for serious reform. Yeah, I can't wait to watch The Rebel. I'll be surprised if a star doesn't emerge.

18 Mar 2011 1:08 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Alex'sBigFan

   That's terrible news if it's true about Derek Jeter being traded to the Chekneya Sox. How much is 500 rubles a year in American money? I'm pretty sure it's a pretty big pay cut.

18 Mar 2011 8:48 AM
Quiet American 55

Steve, I know this is wishful thinking (Las Vegas future action on my part), but do you have any information on Shug's intentions for Break Up The Game (and I know it's asking a lot, why would he tell you, but you are Steve Haskin, so I'm trying)?  I've watched each of his races and he acts very professional and seems to be starving for two turns.  The clock though is running out on May 7, not that these connections would ever force a horse.  But, you'd think they'd be interested in some of the Stakes; near term or shortly down the line.  

18 Mar 2011 9:43 AM
Steve Haskin

Quiet american -- Shug is looking at an allowance race in NY and is taking it slowly with him. He feels he has a bright future and probably is more of a Travers horse than a classic horse. They wont rush him.

18 Mar 2011 11:35 AM
Luis

Anyone know about Manresa Road?? a good prospect of Todd Pletcher

18 Mar 2011 11:54 AM
Betsy

Steve, you'd mentioned on ATR that Heron Lake was coming back. Do you know if that's still the case? I shouldn't keep following him because he seems like an unsound horse, but he has so much potential.   Also, he's not a 3 year old, but do you know if Miner's Reserve is going to make it back? He was hurt in the Travers last year.

Thanks!

18 Mar 2011 3:14 PM
Betsy

Wow, I'm just seeing this now. How on earth is Tapit overrated? He comes up with one big horse after another. As to Bernardini, talk about a rush to judgment. THAS came back very poorly, but his 3 year old season hasn't been run yet. He's got Wilburn, who looks promising, and Stay Thirsty. Also, Break up the Game and Opening Move. Plus, Biondetti overseas -and he's got a couple of others in Europe as well.  

It's hard to ask for more from him.

18 Mar 2011 3:20 PM
Betsy

For the poster who wondered about Take Control, I honestly would not hold my breath. He's out for 60 days (well, it's not 60 anymore) due to a shin issue; the horse is as fragile as glass and can't seem to stand training.

For the poster who said Gomez on THAS is a one and done - why? If THAS runs big in Florida, Gomez could very well stay on him. I'm not sure what to make of the colt, but I have to believe he's much better than he showed. If he runs well in Florida, I expect him to have a big year period - even if he doesn't win the Derby.  I'd like Gomez to stay on THAS so he won't have a 3rd jock in as many races by the Derby time.

18 Mar 2011 3:25 PM
SaratogaDreamin

I say Borel is an awful rider because thats what the record shows...he can't get a mount @ Saratoga. Doesn't that seem odd for a jockey who has won 3 Derby's?his career percentage  is nothing great, and when you look closer to see he was a basic journeyman at Oaklawn (which until recently was 2nd level winter racing) until he caught lightening in a bottle a few times in the Derby...For every ride he was fortuante on, similar to Mind That Bird, there are hundreds that he gets shut off on, that go unnoticed by the masses, because they happen in the 4th on a wednesday or similar... If you take away the summer Churchill meet, which he does well at because there is not another rider there of any national substance, his percentages are even more revealing... he rides most races the exact same way, "wait til the quarter pole and see what the horse has", he has poor hands and can't rate a horse, he also looks bad in the saddle(but so does Ramon, and he's the best)....class dismissed :)

18 Mar 2011 5:36 PM
Alex'sBigFan

Dr. D.,

Factor and Soldat are both by War Front, who in turn was by Danzig.  And they both are ridden by jockeys with the last name of Garcia, one Martin and one Alan.  I never realized that.  

I was a kid when Bill Bradley was traded to the NY Knicks.  But I remember the adults talking about him being called "$Bill" for getting a reportedly big salary, probably peanuts by today's standards! I remember the DeBusschere trade too, he was my favorite, he left us way too young.

If Uncle Mo does win the Triple Crown I hope they bring him in the Garden like they did with Cigar.  How cool would that be?  And I still to this day do not know how I missed Cigar in Madison Square Garden when I was in there all through the 90's!!!  Must have been bamboozled too much by the Knicks that I missed it!!!!!!!

18 Mar 2011 5:52 PM
furlongs

Look everyone watch this if you want to see Draynay when Uncle Mo ran last...

www.youtube.com/watch

18 Mar 2011 9:01 PM
cuban chef de race

to win the derby you need some rest at 2 ,gourmet dinner is a horse that for me is better then mucho macho men and when i see this match i pay attention to pace,why? because mucho macho men do not like a fast pace so i do not like nether  but how the race is going to develop.

18 Mar 2011 10:21 PM
cuban chef de race

i was worry about A.p indy and Storm bird but i am okey let see what i can  do.

18 Mar 2011 10:36 PM
Slew

Saratogadreamin'...First, the name of the horse is MINE That Bird!  When Calvin goes to Saratoga, it's a family vacation, and he doesn't accept many mounts.  When he went to Dubai, he won the Master's Challenge against the top jockeys in the world.  When he isn't riding, he's mucking stalls and exercising horses for his brother, Cecil, who owns and trains his own stable. It's easy to be a top-rated jockey when you get the top-rated mounts, but Calvin rides many horses for Cecil who are simply not the best.  He's always stayed with the same agent, who has become part of his extended family.  He's always been a humble man who loves his horses, and works in one of the most dangerous careers in the world.  I simply cannot find anything not to like about Calvin Borel, and 3 Kentucky Derbies out of 4 is merely the icing on the cake.

19 Mar 2011 9:22 AM
Coldfacts

El Kabong,

You are correct and the the colt facts you presented stands as evidence. I was referring to the derby with my decline projection. However, If Ice Box did not get stopped a couple of times no RAN line horse would have won the 2010 derby. Let us not forget there were 8 starters from the RAN sire line and only one hit the board. Needless to say the Preakness and Belmont were won by horses from the RAN sire line. My decline theory was busted badly.

Based on my RAN line tracking list the following colts fit the profile you presented:

J B Thunder who is not on the derby trail.

Sinai who connections do not appear to be serious about graded earnings.

I have a funny feeling you are referring to Soldat whose dam was sired by Coronado’s Quest a son of   Forty Niner. The dam of his sire War Front is from the RAN line. I would not have him as his first sire does not go back to RAN. I still consider him slow by derby standards and has only a remote chance of winning the derby.

I have added a new member to the RAN CLAN and that is Rebel starter Saratoga Red. He was sired by Eddington a son of Unbridled. Any stallion saddled by Unbridled merits watching as he is the best extension of Mr. Prospector. It must be noted that Unbridled is the only son, grandson or great grandson of Mr. P that has sire a winner of each leg of the Triple Crown. Further, Unbridled’s sons Grindstone sired Belmont winner Birdstone who is the sired of Derby and Belmont winners Mine That Bird and Summer Bird. In light of theses cold facts, I pay careful attention to the offspring’s of son of Unbridled.

Saratoga Red has one win in one start but is an interesting entry in the Rebel. His speed figures compares favorably with some of the other fancied colts in the race. Listed below are some comparative splits:

Saratoga Red Maiden: 23 1/5, 46 1/5, 1:11 2/5, 1:38 2/5 (Sloppy track)

Southwest Stakes       : 22 3/5, 46 4/5, 1:12.00, 1:38 1/5 (Fast Track)  

Saratoga Red made his career debut with two obstacles i.e., the distance (8F) and the track (sloppy). His speed figures for his debut are right on par with those his more seasoned fancied rivals. He must come back a much improved colt. The above speed figures compare favorably with those recorded in the 2010 renewal of the Rebel won by Lookin At Lucky  (23.64, 47.70, 1:12.35, 1:38.41, 1:43.06) This colt is bred o go log as his dam sire Siphon was a dead router who finished 2nd in the Dubai World Cup. He therefore should be for effective at distances beyond a mile. With normal improvement he should finish ahead of the top finisher in the Southwest and must be a very live exotic play horse. He represents an exciting addition to the RAN CLAN.

NB: Wayne Lukas won the Rebel 22 years ago and ahs not won a derby prep inalong while and when he does it will be at a long price.

19 Mar 2011 11:24 AM
El Kabong

Furlongs,

Thank you for that, I haven't laughed that hard in a while. It explains a lot. The comment "Motarded" was spot on.

19 Mar 2011 12:00 PM
JOE

There is no person in there right mind that thinks Uncle Mo after watching his races to date believes that he will win at a mile and a quarter.   He was really trying to win the Timely Writer.   I thought I was watching a claiming race at Finger Lakes for $10,000.00 dollars yes I said ten thousand dollars.  You just watch today when Garret Gomez runs by the Factor in the Rebel Stakes.    Distance is everything.

19 Mar 2011 12:21 PM
Coldfacts

Steve,

The race ran by Picko’s Pride at 80-1 in the Southwest must put him into contention for at least another placement on the board in the Rebel. It was reported before on your blog that he had a brutal trip. However, that might have been an understatement. He drew post #11 and was pushed out further by the #10 colt at the start. He therefore had to angle in to save ground and ended up at the back of the field some 15-18 lengths of the leaders. He made a big move heading towards the top of the stretch and amazingly was the only colt at the top of the stretch that was in hand at this point. He was in hand with nowhere to go so he had to be angled five wide for a clear run and was gaining on Elite Alex fast to secure 4th position. He is has now drawn the #4 post and must be a dangerous colt if he report in his Southwest shape. His PP suggests that he is a genuine sort that always shows up. He is no slough either as he came of a 4 months rest to make his first start at Oakland in a 6F optional claim that preceded his run in the Southwest. He veered at the start and finished willingly to get beat by 2 1/4L in 1:10 4/5.

The Southwest was his first start over 6F.  His sire Cactus Ridge a grandson of Storm Cat was unbeaten in 4 starts and I ready do not know what to make of his capability to sire rout horses. Hi dam was sired Wavering Monarch was sire of two times derby winning sires Maria's Mon. His daughters have produced 27 stakes winners and the earners of $24.6M. He was dam sire of the ill-fated Preakness Stakes winner Prairie Bayou who broke down in the Belmont and euthanized due to broken cannon bone. He only cost $10,000 and has never been of the board in five starts. I cannot see the highly though of Elite Alex finishing ahead of again. If his race in the Southwest was not a fluke he must be worthy of a place on the Rebel board.  

19 Mar 2011 1:21 PM
Coldfacts

JOE,

I like Sway Away but he has a sway back which is kind of an abnormality of the vertebral column. This is the reason he carries his head that high while in full flight. It is probably the galloping posture he find the most comfortable. I do not have much data on sway backs but I hardly believe that condition is good going a distance of ground against fast horses.  I am not sure how pressure such vertebral column can take. They will all be chasing The Factor. I believe the second horse will be a shot.

19 Mar 2011 1:44 PM
JOE

Slew ,

 I am not a big Calvin fan but you have to show respect to a jockey that wins the Kentucky Derby as many times as Calvin.   There can not be a person alive that would argue the fact that the Mind The Bird win was one of the best of all time.   That ride was awesome, fearless, and crazy all at the same time.   The jockeys that he passed in the stretch could not believe what they saw if they thought they saw something at all.  

19 Mar 2011 1:46 PM
furlongs

Your Welcome!! Glad you enjoyed it. DRAYNAY needs to stop giving out his locks before the race is run. It is hurting his Win % !! You know what they say if you lie enough, you eveb start to believe it is true... Take care and good luck at the windows, Furlongs

19 Mar 2011 4:43 PM
SaratogaDreamin

Slew,

I never said he was a bad guy...he's just not a good rider....Please stop with the nonsense about "not accepting Saratoga rides"..its laughable, every rider in the world wants to ride and win at Saratoga...and the Dubai thing, he won A race and was no where in the other 3...he won on a technicality...if you were to ask EVERY major trainer in the game to name their top 20 riders, he would not be on anyones list.  sorry to break the news to you

19 Mar 2011 9:26 PM
zarvona

  OK ok, I have to admit it, I am feeling a little foolish now, having placed a smallish fortune on “Sway Away” (I mean “ ‘stay away’..from the finish line”, that is) to ‘place’, who placed right ahead of “JP left his Gusto somewhere else” for 6th !!! ….so, LOL at me.

  And, as to my weekend report, where there is little to report, well in an e-mail to my brother I expressed that …“should “The Factor” be allowed to set slow or moderate fractions and not be pressed, he might wire the field”… as he did. Thusly, “The Factor” should now be some factor in the outcome come May the 7th. The fact is that, I am feeling that $250 - $270K might be the low bubble Derby cut off gate figure this year and that “The Factor” now has $270K, which seemly makes him a likely candidate for a gate slot.--Where now also actually I am hoping that Baffert tries to rate him off the pace in his next 1 1/8 effort and that “The Factor” then finishes a respectable 2nd or 3rd , thusly then making him a solid Derby threat to win!--Yet, who was the last Derby horse to wire the field? …“Remind your of anyone?:… could happen!!! My feeling is this may, I repeat may, be a potential other one who may have the capability to repeat just such a feat!    

  Although again, I hope in the next 6 weeks they can teach him to rate, even better. Allowed to set moderately good fractions,--seemingly maybe slow for him,--the world renowned speedster,--some dubbing him ‘the fastest horse on the planet’,--was able to get home in a quite respectable 1:42:19.

 And why am I having such a hard time typing you ask? Well that’s because I have my fingers crossed as I played him in Pool #2 and got 32-1 odds. Yet, my fingers are really crossed because I am right now hoping that some Arab doesn’t come along and plunk down $12 million on him and not run him in the Derby!!!

 And, although I said there isn’t really much else left to talk about here after this weekend regarding the 3 year old bunch, well re the Derby gate trail anyway, other than he and that race, well that’s not 100% true because I have one other 3 year old never known of to me before anyway, who ran in and won a maiden race that caught my eye.

 Although, and someone might want to start keeping track of this  lil newbie besides me… a Steve Asmussen; trained,    $900K   ’09   Keenlander ; who just (now yesterday) burst onto the scene in his maiden -3/19/11 win, being his  6 fur. MAIDEN win at  :21.24 ; :43.48 ; :55.05 ; 1:07.44 ; !!!! Impressive?!!! YES, being only a ½ second off “The Factor’s” track record time of  1:06.98 ; but that’s not so much why or being that of his wow price tag that otherwise catches my eye and seemingly makes him feel so impressive to me. Then ‘why’? what is it? you ask, …well, it is in his breeding!

   [[Hmmm $900K plus expenses (INSURANCE) makes for an expensive toy to have as a hobby you might say, especially where I am thinking that it’s a little late now for someone to teach a horse like this ‘to rate’ and then throw him into the Kty. Derby off of only 2 starts,--(that would shatter records).--yet, he is not even an Early Derby Nominee, making him for me to this point thusly off my radar, so that thought is just me thinking out loud…So, ok, we aren’t likely to see him UNTIL LATER DOWN THE ROAD somewhere this year.]].  BUT, from me, KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE!!!!…

  Although he only has “Raise a Native”-“Northern Dancer”-“Nasrullah” , “Ribot”, and “Turn To” sprinkled through his SIRE’s LINES, impressive enough, being from “Distorted Humor”,--not bad,--his dam lineage is even way more impressive!!! Actually his price tag of $900K seems a little bit low for this one when considering his dam lineage alone. His dam is “Forest Music” by “Unbridles Song”. But, it is in her dam’s and dam’s dam’s and their lines in his breeding that any favored stallion to his dam makes the price tag of $900K maybe worth the price and some the price re a stud fee, and then that winning auction bid, huh? {{OR, the investors must be thinking like I am already, that any fillie to dam he produces would definitely be worth the fee to foal and mate to the favored STALLION or MARE of all time to !!!--  …like say, breed her to a “Curlin” or a “Big Brown” or who ever else comes to mind!!!--And why do I bring all of this to yours’, my fellow bloggers’, attentions?…  Well, it is because on his dam side,--as one might note with a little lineage breeding investigation,--that it will show that he through she is “triple bred to the ‘big heart’ “X factor” gene’ strains!! , three of them? in fact!!…and WOW, where one alone would be impressive enough, and that all so, via his and her lineage traces to “Cosquillo”, “Mah Mahal”, & “Brushup”,  …that’s all !!! …and that is why!!!}}

 Paul Harvey "Good Day"

20 Mar 2011 4:52 AM
JJ's Lucky Train

I guess now you might throw in The Factor in your top 12 after the convincing win in the Rebel, wondering why it took you so long to spot a legit contender.

20 Mar 2011 7:55 AM
roan roy

You would think the derby winner (The Factor) would be among your derby dozen somewhere, but he's not.  Maybe you'll have discovered him by your next edition.

20 Mar 2011 2:15 PM
zarvona

P.S. OK, so who was that horse that I apparently failed to mention the name of in my weekend recap, well his name is "Maclean's Music". Being as how I was so excited in finding him, I see that I failed to mention exactly who he was and who I was referring to, that being if you on your own didn't discover who I was referring to. Sorry, my appologies. "Z"

20 Mar 2011 4:16 PM
Zookeeper

Maybe you missed an explanation that Mr. Haskin posted earlier... he doesn't include a horse in the Derby Dozen until it has shown that it can go two turns, no matter how talented.

20 Mar 2011 5:16 PM
SaratogaDreamin

Roy,

the Derby list changes every week. Remember its a sport, with moving parts...Why are some of you guys so sour...Im sure the Factor was on all your lists since January....give me a break...more importantly, give Steve a break

20 Mar 2011 7:52 PM
redandblacksilks

SaratogaDreamin,

I agree with you concerning Calvin Borel.  I've seen him ride many times and he is only half a notch above a journeyman jock.  If the other jocks in the races he's riding ever wise up and stay on the rail, they will take a lot of win money out of his pocket.  

I'm not ready to give the KY Derby to The Factor just yet.  Nobody even made a half a?? effort to go with him in the Rebel.  Additionally, the track was playing to speed.  8 of the 11 races on the card were won by horses who lay either first or second all the way around the track.  It is a pet peeve of mine that track supers always feel the need to soup up a track before a big race or are influenced to do so.

I knew a track super who worked a given track for many years.  He also owned thoroughbreds.  Everytime one of his speed horses raced he made sure the track was lightening fast.  Yes, Virginia, there is larceny in horse racing.

Well, back to The Factor.  If he makes it to the Kentucky Derby he will be have to be party to a very hot pace and will have other horses looking him in the eye.  If he is as classy as some think he'll take it in stride and perhaps win.  If not, he'll finish up the track.

21 Mar 2011 1:09 AM
JOE

Coldfacts,

             The Factor, proved me wrong.    

21 Mar 2011 6:29 AM
Flynne

Hey Steve, did you ever get any more information on why Gourmet Dinner was shipped to Ocala? DRF frist reported it and I haven't heard a word of it anywhere since then. Shame, I really love his consistency and it'd be nice for everyone to be kept updated by the connections.

21 Mar 2011 12:57 PM

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