Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

[brightcove videoid="1613087548001"]

1

Creative Cause Mike Harrington Click Here!

Giant's Causeway—Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer

Makes no sense to displace him from the top spot now. He was full of energy coming off the van and on the track April 29. The bottom line is that he’s as consistent as they come and has never been beaten more than a length.

2

Union Rags Michael Matz

Dixie Union—Tempo, by Gone West

Had to move him up after his superb work. He may not be ranked No. 1, but he is THE horse and is ready to run the race of his life. Although he worked a half, he was credited with 5f, and it was still the 3rd fastest of 53 works on the tab.

3

Dullahan Dale Romans Click Here!

Even the Score—Mining My Own, by Smart Strike

I still like this colt a lot, but using works as a gauge, Union Rags stood out, while Dullahan just had a maintenance drill, coming home in :251⁄5 and galloping out an extra eighth in :143⁄5. He’s still the main stretch danger with that huge kick.

4

I'll Have Another Doug O’Neill Click Here!

Flower Alley – Arch’s Gal Edith, by Arch

I feel better about him after seeing him come off the van. His coat was resplendent after a long plane ride, and he was full of himself walking the shed, trying to buck on occasion. He needs to be farther off the pace than he’s been.

5

Bodemeister Bob Baffert Click Here!

Empire Maker—Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat

Loved his final work, especially the way he broke five lengths behind Jemima’s Pearl, eased up to her and finished fast with the rider high up in the saddle. His gallop-out was awesome. We have no idea how good this horse is.

6

Gemologist Todd Pletcher Click Here!

Tiznow—Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector

He’s not inundated with early speed, so don’t be surprised to see him back farther off the pace than he has been, much like Super Saver in 2010. There’s little separating him from the top three. He’s tough, he’s versatile, and he’s undefeated.

7

Hansen Mike Maker

Tapit—Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat

He had a nice settling work, and if he can translate that to the race, he’ll be in good shape. He obviously has question marks as far as tactics, but none when it comes to talent. Just wondering how much the Toyota Blue Grass S. (gr. I) helped him.

8

Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin

Bernardini—Munnaya, by Nijinsky

He was my overlay special and looked like a live wager at a generous price. He worked great, but instead of having two works at Churchill as planned, he’s had only one work at Belmont. Don’t like that big a change but still like the colt.

9

Take Charge Indy Pat Byrne Click Here!

A.P. Indy – Take Charge Lady, by Dehere

Would have loved to see him work at Churchill, but we’ll just have to go strictly by handicapping unless his gallops at Churchill are extraordinary. He will be forgotten, even with Borel, but do not count him out.

10

Daddy Nose Best Steve Asmussen Click Here!

Scat Daddy—Follow Your Bliss, by Thunder Gulch

He’s got to be the Derby “house” horse; will go into the race with four works over the track. There’s no doubt he’s improving at the right time. He’s one of those horses that I love looking at, whether grazing or galloping. Tons of class.

11

El Padrino Todd Pletcher Click Here!

Pulpit—Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway

Yes, he could be a sucker play, but if you go by his Beyers and Thoro-Graph figures, he’s a horse you don’t want to ignore and then realize too late he was a smart play. Speed figs give him a legitimate shot. Worked very slowly in final drill.

12

Went the Day Well Graham MotionClick Here!

Proud Citizen—Tiz Maie’s Day, by Tiznow

This is a virtual tie with Sabercat. His unknown factor might give him a better shot to win it, because we don’t know just how much upside there is to him. But Sabercat has a good 2-year-old foundation and has proved his class. Toss-up.

50 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Lmaris

I'd swap your #6 Gemologist for your #4 I'll Have Another, but otherwise think you are spot on.

01 May 2012 9:54 AM
Rinzler

Hi Steve. Been following your comments and such every year. I really enjoy your articles. As hard as it is, I am going against the grain. I am still sticking with Went the Day Well, even though there are many here that seem more formidable. As a 2 year-old, WTDW was trained under different methods overseas. They mostly focus on stamina over speed. I would say that is a good thing early on in his career. Help him build muscle and lung capacity. And even though he runs a bit green, he does not have an aversion to contact or crowding. I'm still waiting for him to display that kick he showed in his maiden race. Maybe it got stuck in customs?

01 May 2012 10:36 AM
THEHOLZ

STEVE- I HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR THIS SATURDAY AFTER I MADE A LARGE FUTURE BET ON BODEMONSTER IN LATE MARCH.  I FEEL THIS IS BOBBY B'S YEAR. BODE WILL SIT A LITTLE OFF THE PACE AND WONT BE CAUGHT FROM BEHIND. I BELIEVE HE IS A FREAK. REMINDS ME A LOT OF SEATTLE SLEW WITH EFFORTLESS STRIDES. HE WILL WIN TRIPLE CROWN. BODE ALL DAY.

01 May 2012 11:21 AM
Don from PA/DE

Well Steve, so it is in writing for

the last time for 2012 KD? Thanks for all your enjoyable and hard work and shared words, as for your numbers, I totally agree with your top 3, in that order, EXCEPT #1 is

"Gemologist" who, if the track comes up fair, I believe, will be a

"Sparkling Gem" in the winners circle at the KD, undefeated, and we will see his true superior intelligence, skills and abilities

coming down the stretch as he measures the few who will be near him.....please give us your take on

him as he arrives a scouts out his

opponents before Saturday. Don

01 May 2012 11:57 AM
turing42

Steve, I've been high on Creative Cause since the BC Juvenile and my confidence in him has only been bolstered by having him as your top choice. I think he had the fastest prep race in the San Felipe prior to Bodemeister's Ark derby. I'm holding exacta tickets in all 3 futures pools with CC on top with UR,HANSEN,ALPHA,BODE,GEM, ALPHA,and DNB. Thanks, Steve and I hope we're both right!

01 May 2012 12:26 PM
josh

Last "Derby Dozen" Steve, it was a pleasure to have another year of following your blog. Looked forward to it every week.

My last "Dozen"

1. Union rags - Just in love with his last 3 works, and his last work was exactly what I wanted to see.

2. Creaive Cause - Consistency, consistency, consistency!

3. Bodemeister - Loved his last work, Baffert is trying his best to keep him at his peak

4. I'll Have Another - He looked so beautiful on the CD track, I have liked this horse for awhile now.

5.Daddy Nose Best - He is peaking at the right time, seasoned

6. Take Charge Indy - Trainer is feeling really good about him, would love to see an AP Indy colt when this race

7. Prospective - Can't take my eyes off of him when he is on the track, he looks THAT good

8. Dullahan - I think he is not taking o the dirt as he does to turf or synthetic

9. Gemologist - Think he is a little overrated and I didn't like his last work

10. Hansen - He looks good, but his tactics and last work don't impress

11. Went the Day Well - I really liked his last work, connections are proven

12. Alpha - I liked him a lot before until he was only worked once, but bred for the race

01 May 2012 12:38 PM
Karen D

Appreciate your insight as always.  I ask myself three questions re: Derby - will they handle the distance? will they handle traffic? will they handle the crowd?  Good examples of handling the crowd were Mine That Bird and Eight Belles - both were calm but very curious and alert.  Can you give a little insight on personalities this year?

01 May 2012 12:40 PM
Karen in Indiana

I like Creative Cause for the reasons you've given and because he has the pedigree to be able to go for the Triple Crown.

I like Union Rags for the resons you've given and also because of the video showing him rolling in the sand while he was still in Fla. and he was rolling over like it was nothing - no getting 2/3 there and getting stuck. Very athletic.

I like Gemologist for the reasons you've given and because he's a Tiznow (always root for them).

I like Hansen for the reasons you've given and because his video playing in the sand shows a very happy, full of himself colt. He makes me smile.

01 May 2012 12:43 PM
opsherr

Many astute observations, Mr. Haskin. As far as Hansen goes, I don't believe the Blueegrass helped him at all. He doesn't need any help, he's dead fit. The question is: Can his jockey make the right decision and take him off the pace? He's proven he will rate and unless he can get a six length lead the last sixteenth will cook him with horses that have been galloping for a mile and sixteenth. To me the Derby has been a riders race for the last 15 years. I only pray that ALL of these magnificent Thoroughbreds finish well and go on to race again with many victories for them.                

01 May 2012 1:45 PM
LucyWG

Just thinking...Harrington said Creative Cause does not like to be crowded.  With the cavalry charge that is the Kentucky Derby,that could be a problem.  I hope he gets a good trip.  I know from experience that horses who have issues with being crowded can get WORSE if put into a situation where they feel threatened.  

01 May 2012 1:58 PM
2:24

Could argue a bit with your order (though not much) but believe you have the 12 best horses in your top 12.

01 May 2012 2:56 PM
Stevebiscuit

Steve, did you survey any of the contenders grazing? If I recall correctly, that's one of your unique Derby handicapping methods is it not?

01 May 2012 3:29 PM
Indiana Johnny

Steve, great write up and insight on the horses again. Depending on the draw,( I'll prob. drop post #1 from top spot), I'll probabaly bet straight up on Creative cause to win, and a back up bet on DNB or Dullahan. And some tri/super part wheels, might even throw some long-bombs in there. Good Luck Steve and everybody on the blog on Derby Day !

01 May 2012 3:38 PM
Mister Frisky

The final dozen,all that's left is the race itself.Looks like it's all systems go for Union Rags.He just seems like the one who hasn't fired that monster race yet.

01 May 2012 3:59 PM
iceman92

looks like i"ll have another to win, followed by creative cause,went the day well and union rags. trinniberg will get the fast mile in front setting up the closers.

01 May 2012 4:27 PM
Stones

This is the most difficult Derby for me to figure out in many, many years.  With Optimizer now drawing in, I also now need to re-think my "late closer" scenario (ughh!!).

The whole "pace" projection gets muddled, as some trainers know their horses need to do some things different in this race.  Will be interested to see if Trinniberg is asked to rate, as his owner is hinting at.  That might blow the expected pace scenario out of the water.

I agree with THEHOLZ in thinking that Bode could be a freak.

I also like IHA and DNB a lot...and my heart is with El Padrino.  But with several other horses I am afraid to exclude, I don't know how I will manage to keep my exotics bets at a reasonable cost!

01 May 2012 5:29 PM
Barchetta6

If looks win, give the roses to Union Rags. Looks like a 4YO. Muscle on muscle.

01 May 2012 5:50 PM
predict

Steve, once again, thankyou, for all your hard work and insights in putting together all of the top twelve this year- I can't tell you how much it is appreciated.

I haven't got a clue what to do this year- so-with that in mind, I will make my bets using the following:

First I will take a stand against two of the big three from last years BCJ. I will leave Union Rags and Hansen out of my bets. If Trinniberg is entered as planned, I think he will ruin both of these two horses' chances, if they beat me, so be it. I am not crazy about either of these two making a mile and a quarter, even less so with a very improved speed horse, Trinniberg, in the mix.

Horses I like

(in particular order):

Alpha- love the way he is bred for the distance and first five generations of dams on the damside are all stakes winning females. That's alot of good race horses.

Bodemeister-love his ability and can't tell you how much I love seeing Toussaud in his lineage.

I'll Have Another- look at just his most recent sire heritage and you see Flower Alley, Distorted Humor, Forty Niner, Lycius( wow!),Arch(another Wow!),Kris S(wow, wow,

wow),and Pleasnt Tap(leaves me speachless if this guy doesn't run big at a mile and a quarter)

Gemologist- undefeated and he's by Tiznow, that's enough for me.

Creative Cause-has never been out of the money, facing the best around! Should love added distance.

Dullahan- (can't leave an Irish name out, you know the "luck of the Irish" thing) and love his dam for being able to give him distance capability). And the sire side lineage to Unbridled, what more could you want?

Take Charge Indy- because my wife loves anything with the word "charge" in it. Not to mention the Borel thing.

Daddy Nose Best- I can still see the way Johannesberg ran in the BCJ, and add Thunder Gulch and Pine Bluff on the Dam side, and we have a horse bred to win the Derby.

Good luck to all, and may we have a safe race for everyone.

01 May 2012 5:51 PM
Johnny

LucyWG:

I read the same article and I have to take a stand and Creative Cause will be a toss..

He doesnt like the whip and he does not like crowds well he is going to have both Sat. Good Luck but he is a toss..

Top 3

Union Rags

Daddy Nose Best

Ill Have Another or Gem have not made up my mind

Bomber Pick

Prospective..

All subject to change up until post.

Good Luck to all.

01 May 2012 6:14 PM
Geronimo2123

I think even more important for Hansen will be for Ramon to keep this colt off of the rail, especially in the stretch. Horses with hoods need to be out in the lane so the jockey can sense if any horses are coming behind them. Last race Ramon didn't even see or feel Dullahan coming until it was too late for Hansen to make it closer at the wire.

GET OFF THE RAIL!

01 May 2012 6:35 PM
Alex'sBigFan

Always a pleasure to be on the Derby trail with Steve and all the great bloggers.  Steve, you are quite the photographer as well, Dullahan and Take Charge Indy looked like they posed right for you.  I love watching the arrivals, they get off the vans like Kings.  Lava Man looks great, I like his new career.  Let's see what the post positions are but for now I'm still going:

1.  Bodemeister

2.  Union Rags

3.  I'll Have Another or CC

4.  Hansen

5.  Gemologist

I was going to do an additional trifecta for fun of all the namesakes coming in, Bodemeister for little Bode first, then Hansen for Dr. Hansen coming second, then Mark Valeski for Mark Valeski for third but now Mark Valeski is out.  So much for that idea.

They all look so fit and so aware this year.  It could Steve, as you suggested, come right down to the ride they get from the jocks and their split decision making. I think it is 60% horse, his legs have to run the race and he must be conditioned and mentally ready, 20% jock who must judge the pace scenario correctly and know when to push the botton, and 20% pure luck of the draw.

01 May 2012 6:44 PM
Davids

Thanks Steve for your insightful prose which makes the build up to the Kentucky Derby even more enthralling. Your repartee with Lenny Shulman on "And They're Off" is always a pleasure as well.

Lets just hope it's a cleanly run race, there is enough negative press floating round at the moment. Safe trips to all.    

01 May 2012 7:46 PM
Ranagulzion

Steve,

Thanks again for the Derby Dozen series. I look forward to it every year.  Whenever I do challenge  or disagree with your ratings and rationale it is with due respect because yours is the original and you're the man, Steve. Good luck on Derby day.

01 May 2012 11:52 PM
Greg R

How extraordinary is it that all of the first three finishers in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile are still going strong, not only headed for the Derby, but all considered top contenders?  A long time may pass before this happens again.  Also, they accomplished their big two-yr-old feat on the same track where they will run in the Derby, which seems to give them an even more realistic shot.  I would get an enormous kick out of it if they finished 1-2-3 again, not in the same order, necessarily.  In fact, I might look for them to finish in the reverse order, ie., Creative Cause, Union Rags, Hansen.  If Bodemeister wins off a too-strong race in the Ark. Derby (maybe his peak effort), he may be a super horse, but I see him perhaps "winning" the first nine furlongs of the race and faltering, a la Bellamy Rd.

02 May 2012 12:38 AM
Cassandra.Says

RINZLER:

Went The Day Well is one smart horse and caught on to North American racing beautifully. You need to see the race before his maiden, the MSW where he was fourth, to appreciate his progress.

In that race, his first American start, he not only broke gradually and trailed early, but each time the field kicked it up a notch, he lost lengths before responding. Only started running when he was swung clear in the stretch.

One lesson was all he needed. He breaks okay and no longer gets left standing as the pace accelerates. Further improvement would not surprise.

02 May 2012 2:03 AM
Dee

The final days and the final dozens, here we go... a few quick thoughts- Prospective is looking the most impressive. Don't count out Alpha. Throw out Hansen and Creative Cause. I can't not do a $2 bet for laughs across the board on Trinniberg because he did look aweful good in his races. Maybe he is a freak, maybe he will finish last. $6 won't kill me but it'd be worth it if it paid out. As I see it, the order of finish:

-Union Rags (will include him in most trifectas but will leave out of some for value)

-Daddy Nose Best (looking the best)

-I'll Have Another (also very impressive)

-Prospective (most impressed with physically so far)

-Alpha (looking good, he will be there and fighting)

-Gemologist (hard to knock a horse who is undefeated, but I dunno about Castellano or his waiting on horses)

-El Pardino (the forgotten one, did he bounce or is he not as good as some?)

-Sabercat (liked him all year, quietly getting better)

-Take Charge Indy (Borail, enough said? Talented, but is he as good as the rest?)

-Bodemeister (looking good, but I can't get past the no 2yo races/4 starts)

-Liason (hard to discount a horse who ran so well at 2, but I have a hard time with the Santa Anita track excute)

The last three I'm kind of undecided as to how to rank them at the bottom but are still talented enough but have the biggest question marks for me: Went the Day Well, Creative Cause, and Dullahan. I think CC is too erratic in the stretch and get too worked up, and Dullahan is better on turf/synthetic and Kent D isn't reliable enough to bet on for my liking.

02 May 2012 3:40 AM
El Kabong

Steve,

Congratulations on your award. You captivate your audience every year with your insight and behind the scene stories that get to the heart of the sport. The people who make the industry happen and the special animals that work so hard for their oats and hay, are lucky to have such a talented bard to tell their story. Hats off to you Mr. Haskin.

02 May 2012 6:40 AM
Mister Frisky

Any word on who has the mount on Alpha.It's 8:oo am PST on May 2nd,Thanks.

02 May 2012 10:50 AM
zarvona

Hmmm ...sooo... the BIG BARN established trainers i.e. Todd Pletcher and "Bobby" Baffert only got 2 entries into the Derby ... only 1 @ with a legitimate shot !! in my opinion and Steve Asmussen a noticed two. Surprising with the numbers sent them they don't have more, but we see "Algorythms" and "Secret Circle" and the like, etc. on the side lines, so more understandable. Nice to see the likes of some of the lesser trainer yearly leaders up the Derby. Kudos to Hamilton A. Smith; Doug O'Neill; Pat Byrne; and Mike Casse & etc. with runners, as they have all had my respect for years. AND, GREAT TO SEE D. Wayne Lucas back in the mix !!! I thought the cutoff might come in around $180K... although with the higher purses now days,--unless they re-vamp the current system,--that may not hold up in the future.  Dag, this waiting for the post draw is killing me... Go BABY Go BABY GO...

02 May 2012 11:04 AM
TGN

Is Daddy Long Legs at CD yet. Have you seen him?  Any comments/observations?

02 May 2012 2:53 PM
zarvona

latest Sprotwriter EXPERTS?

     poll results noon -5/2

     Union Rags         95

  Creative Cause        79

I'll Have Another       55

     Dullahan           54

   Bodemeister          53

    Gemologist          47

 Take Charge Indy       38

      Hansen            29

  Daddy Nose Best       27

 Went the Day Well       9

       Alpha             8

   Rousing Sermon        5

  Daddy Long Legs        3

      Sabercat           3

      Kty Oaks

     Grace Hall         57

    On Fire Baby        50

     Edon’s Moon        38

   Believe You Can      36

    Broadway Alibi      34

     And Why Not        24

    Summer Applause     22

     Amie’s Dini        10

    Karlovy Vary         9

  Hard Not to Like       9

   Jemima’s Pearl        8

02 May 2012 4:17 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

1. Bodemeister

2. Take Charge Indy

3. I'll Have Another

4. Gemologist

5. Daddy Nose Best

6. Union Rags

7. Creative Cause

8. El Padrino

9. Went The Day Well

10. Alpha

11. Sabercat

12. Tie- Hansen, Trinniberg

02 May 2012 9:53 PM
Draynay

Union Rags end of story.

02 May 2012 11:14 PM
Mike Monarchos

Steve,

Didn't you say that Creative Cause lost a shoe recently and tore off part of the hoof? Wouldn't that be a concern?

I know Alpha is bred well for the Derby but can he overcome missing works after getting an infection after the Wood?

Daddy Long Legs is a throw out after getting the 1 post.

I'll Have Another may be hurt by post 19. Is he good enough to overcome it?

Trinniberg got post 9. Too bad he didn't get #1 or # 20. I just can't see this horse getting the distance having never run more than 7 furlongs.

Bodemeister is in the 6 hole, with two closers on either side of him. He should get the rail going into the first turn if he wants it. I don't think Take Charge Indy has the speed to beat him to it, but will probably fall in behind him with Borail.

Hansen has post 14, but he might get forced wide in the first turn, since he's outside of Trinniberg and Bode.

Gemologist is in the 15 hole, with a gap to his inside and stable mate El Padrino to his outside in post 16. He should not have a problem with the break. Castellano will have to make sure he doesn't get too wide in turn one. Same with El Padrino, who ran 60 feet further than Take Charge Indy and Union Rags in the Florida Derby.

Union Rags breaks from the 4 hole, with Take Charge Indy just inside, and the closer Dullahan just to his outside. Will he try to beat Bodemeister to the rail, or stay just outside of Take Charge Indy who will likely go to the rail.

This is getting confusing and it's just the start. I think this race favors the speed and the horses just off of the pace. If Bodemeister is the freak that I think he is he may be gone! I hope Gemologist stays within 5-6 lengths. Same with El Padrino, who's speed figures are as good as any as far as consistancy goes.

Can Rags stay out of trouble in this 20 horse field? I don't know.

As of right now I might bet a 6,15/6,15/All tri. I might bet some tri keys with 6 and 15 on top of 5 or 6 horses. I'm confused! HELP!!!!

02 May 2012 11:27 PM
The Deacon

First off, I would like to thank Steve for all of these wonderful blogs following the Kentucky Derby trail. He has made this season a memorable and fun time for all.

As Dan Fogleberg so beautifully sung, "In a chance of a lifetime", "In a lifetime of chance" it's now time to join in the dance.....Run for the Roses is now upon us.

Man O' man what a even bunch nice colts we have here. I like a few, like most do but here goes,

MY PICKS:

1. Went the Day Well.....

love the breeding and really like the layoff. Most times I don't but in this case I think he is primed for a big effort.....if he is good enough!!

2. Take Charge Indy.......

The Borel factor, and again he is well rested and A.P. Indy may get his 1st Derby win win as a sire.....

3. Union Rags.......

didn't fire too well in the Florida Derby, thought it was a good prep. Again, he is well rested and just looks superior....

4. Hansen......

Good workout in the Blue Grass Stakes, this is the race they want. What a beautiful horse.

5. Creatice Cause.......

Hard hitter, learning more and more how to run. Always gives his best. California is due to get one of these soon. Don't over look him.

I will put these 5 in the exotics and play Went the Day Well to win.

Good luck to all.

03 May 2012 3:11 AM
zarvona

whats up with re the DERBY weather report... one station stays High will dominate through the weekend and no rain in forecast for Kty.  ... the other station says approaching low from the north chance of rain Fri. and Sat. ???

03 May 2012 7:46 AM
datflippinrabbit

Steve your pick CC looks VERY dangerous after the PP draw relative to how the others drew, if you look at it from a perspective of who is going to sprint early and who is going to hold back

03 May 2012 11:46 AM
zarvona

hmmm here's a thought for a MORE competitive Derby... Allow the HIGHEST graded $$ winner the first choice of POST Position and so on, thuly giving the 'back in' $$  #26-27 earners the worst POSTS !!! and eliminate the likes of "Daddy Long Legs"  getting stuck in POST #1 or in any event the top contenders their more or most desired POST to leave from, where the likes of a TRINNIBERG would get #1 or #20 etc.!!!

03 May 2012 12:01 PM
El Kabong

Predict,

I am on board with your sentiments about Steve's work and most of the horses you list. I am going to replace Creative Cause with Went The Day Well simply because of CC's difficulty dealing with tight spaces and crowds. I noticed it and read some remarks by Mr. Harrington that convinced me his talent will fall to his fears. You can't have it your blood at all that day.

I will have Dullahan as my key on top and under. I have to tell you that I saved a post of yours for this moment. The discussion of how to pronounce Dullahan's name is still going. While the folks on the Emerald Teet that pokes out of the North Sea have advised on the Duh-lah-HAHN version, but I prefer, and so does the Donegal team,  the one you put forth months ago.

"You begin by filling your oversized coffee mug with your favorite Scotch whiskey. After you down this you are prpeared to pronounce Dullahan. Start by facing the person you are talking to and approach them so that they are a breath wish away, curl your lips so that one side is higher than the other while closing your eye, the one above the down side of your lips and opening wide the other eye, stare the person you are talking to in the eye , turn your head away slowly as if to look over your shoulder and then turn back to the person’s face and say

, with a strong guttural voice, while slurring your words, say DOOOOOLAHHHAN!

predict 17 Oct 2011 11:13 PM

Too funny Predict, good luck with your bets, and don't forget to fill up your coffee cup before you place your bets:)

03 May 2012 12:04 PM
zarvona

 I am thinking I will make the rare exacta try...  and hope that any of the "BC Juv 4" finish 3rd or worse. Not getting odds on "Union Rags" and thinking that "Dullahan" is burnt out by now and just hope "Creative Cause" doesn't destroy me, and that "Hansen" won't handle that last 1/8 of mile...  thusly I will try ...

3-6-15-19  over

2-3-6-10-11-13-15-19...

03 May 2012 12:17 PM
THEHOLZ

BODE POST 6 - YOU GOT TO BE KIDDING.  MY FUTURE BET LOOKS BETTER ALL THE TIME FROM LATE MARCH. GOT A FEELING HE WILL BE VERY SPECIAL. NEEDS TO SIT OFF THE PACE FROM TRINNI AND HANSEN. MAKE BOLD MOVE AROUND FAR TURN AND WONT BE CAUGHT FROM BEHIND. RIDE LIKE THE WIND MIKEY.MY EXACTA IS BODE WITH HANSEN FOR ABOUT $100 THE PAYOFF. THE CLOSERS WILL GET UP FOR 3RD PLACE.  GO BOBBY B.  THIS IS YOUR YEAR.

03 May 2012 2:40 PM
Alydar

We´re almost at the wire, few steps away from one of the most exciting Kentucky Derbies in recent years. I hope the race make justice to so high expectations. Yes, this is a very good group, a very consistent one that makes us think any of those colts has a real chance to win the roses. So my list responds more to my feelings than any other cause. First, i really want an AP Indy descendant wins the Derby. Since last year i´ve been keeping Take Charge Indy in the top of my list. I really think he´s a very nice colt, versatile and with the resources to be the best of this interesting group. So, Take Charge Indy is my first choice. I´d like to put Alpha and Hansen as the second and third choice, respectively, but Gemologist looks like a monster in a track that knows perfectly. My fifth place is Went the Day Well. My longshot? Optimizer, the best choice to head a cinderella story. I insist that my list is an answer to my feelings, because anyone can win.

1- TAKE CHARGE INDY

2- GEMOLOGIST

3- ALPHA

4- HANSEN

5- WENT THE DAY WELL

LONGSHOT: OPTIMIZER (Lukas factor)

Good luck everybody!!!

03 May 2012 4:45 PM
Slew

Wow...looking at the the field, anyone of 12 or so are good enough to win....and considering how huge luck plays into the race, any one of the 20 can win.

As much as I love Hansen, I'm keeping my goal of a Triple Crown in mind...and have to consider the colt most suited to take it all.

I like Calvin in the #3 gate...I think it lowers his odds.  The press seem to have ignored Alpha, but that is a dangerous colt to ignore.

But for the Oaks-Derby Double...(oh lord, don't let me jinx them) I like Broadway's Alibi and Take Charge Indy.

And I could change my mind tomorrow...because these are both races deep in talent...it's a luxury we haven't had for a very long time, and I'm just soaking up the glitz of it all.

03 May 2012 4:58 PM
Stones

Dr D.....don't give up on El P!!!

I like Bode, El P, TCI and Alpha.

Good luck everyone!

03 May 2012 6:31 PM
zarvona

 OK Steve...  Did you finally get my drift re "Ill Have Another" and 'the Curlin kick' ???' Did I state that it was a SPEED favoring track thusly favoring the likes of "Bodemiester" and "Daddy Nose Best"... (and TY God for heeding to the "NO RAIN" chant.) Did I not state that "Dullahan" was a serious play BUT NOT ON TOP! Did I not state I liked "Gemologist" and "Went the Day Well" and that "Union Rags" and "Creative Cause" but only as mild consideration under plays for 2nd at best or lower ??? OK so "Union Rags" and "Take Charge Indy" drew dreaded inside posts, and I stated "Union Rags" appears "he doesn't handle traffic well" ???, although I think I saw "Take Charge Indy" not only work his way through the early traffic where I think he was up to 3rd? or 4th behind "Trinniberg" where I thought he had reached a good position, but apparently that work may have taken something out of him??. And then there was "I'll Have Another" who I said if he was in the top 8 at the first turn and in the top 6 in the final turn ... LOOK OUT? And then there was a speed favoring track where we all knew that if "Bodebeyer" got lose on or near the lead LOOK OUT!!! and that also favored "Daddy Nose Best" (( Andrew Beyer's straight EXACTA PLAY !!--too bad from Andy they don't have a 2 // 4 exotic play--[[Bodebellamyroadmeister]] .

WEll I admit I was routing for BAFFERT when "Bode" turned it up after the turn !--(( I actually Thought for a fleeting moment that the "STORM CAT" JINX was gonna fall!! ))-- but then " along came MARY " that "CHOCOLATE CHIP" and he was  "CURLIN" s-m-o-k-in' in that 5th gear that few OF YOUR fab BC juv 4  4  ever showed or ever possessed. "Dullahan"  older than many of the rest did show his metal and will be a strong re-consideration come Belmont time, along with "Alpha". What happened to "Gemologist" YOUR PICK MY pick my brother's pick-June Byrne's pick-Mark Johnson pick ??, guess we'll have to await trainer released news etc. to find out. And TY Draynay for adding to ALL the pools with your "Union Rags" plays (spent all of $2 on the horse myself as a place bet under the Horesss that finished 1-2 MY  TOP 2 exacta plays myself !! Just wish I had the GUTS of my conviction now with $46K  $1 dollar SUPER !!! payoff that I missed...lol ...     And so we all saw  "I'll Have Another"-"Bodemiester"-"Dullahan" a relatively easy TRIPLE that I also didn't play... and "Daddy Nose Best" and "Went the Day Well" all PICKS along 'Gemologist' and 'Take Charge Indy' that I used  ROUNDING OUT A COMPLETE TOP 5  and only one BC juv top 4 horse--"Dullahan"--in that bunch being  for 3rd. whom I finally came to grips with was the most intriquing of the 'BC Juv 4' lot!! WEll  I am happy with "459.90" 1 1/2 X's exacta picks on my $42 bet and hope some few other bloggers on here took the keys I was expressing as well. IF NOT  ...NO HATE MAIL PLEASE...

  OK STEVE now open up a Preakness- Belmont  blog and let's see if we can't make some more bloggers more profitable.

 P.S. AND INVITE DRAYNAY back so we can TOSS his top choice !!

05 May 2012 11:45 PM
zarvona

  Yeah that VIRGINIA bred “BODEMEISTER” (“BodeBeyerMonster”) --D.I. 3.00;  -4/28/09 foal; $260K ’10 Keenlander;  now (4    2-3-0)--

 By “Empire Maker”: & Untouched Talent by “Storm Cat”; quad bred to “Bold Ruler”; triple bred to “Northern Dancer”; dbl. bred to “Secretariat” on the dam side; thusly dbl. bred to “Princequillo (G.B.)-“Prince Rose”(G.B.); dbl. bred to “Man O’War” , and at least 8 X’s inbred to Nearco (Ity.) throught the sires lines; with  influences from  “Free For All”; “Teddy” (Fr.) “Ajax” (Fr.); “Colin”-“Commando”  & at lesat 7 Xs   bred to the “BHXFG” strains via 3 Xs @ to Blossom Time; & Cosquilla (G.B.); & 1 X to Brushup; …and …

 “I’LL HAVE ANOTHER”--D.I. 2.11; -4/01/09 foal; $11K Keenlander;  $35K ’11 OBS; now (6     4-1-0)-- by “Flower Alley” (“Flower Alley Power”) & “Arch’s Girl Edith” by “Arch”; 5 Xs bred to “Northern Dancer”; quad bred to “Native Dancer”; triple bred to “Raise a Native”; dbl. bred to “Ribot” & thusly to “St. Simon”; dbl. bred to “Princequillo (G.B.)-“Prince Rose”(G.B.); at least 7 Xs inbred to “Nearco” (Ity”) through the sire’s lines; & 6 Xs  bred to the “BHXFG” Strains via 3 Xs @ to Blossom Time; 1 X to Brushup; & 1X @ to Cosquilla (G.B.); & to Mah Mahal (G.B.); surely did ‘bounce’ !!!  Those tow relatively young horses--when compared to the likes of  “Gemologist”; “Dullahan”; & “Went the Day Well”, and etc., --surely did ‘bounce’, they bounced right across the finish line ahead of 18 others including the ‘Fab BC Juv 4” !!!

  Although Steve, I must admit that your onside track reporting surely aided and added to my thinking on the plays and underpalys that I had also considered. I must WAY TO GO !! and keep up the good work and all you do for us. Yes, Keep up the good work !

Did I not once say this year 'isn't it about the breeding, the speed capabilities, and the results', the WINNING and that to be "the MAN" you have to beat "the MAN" !! Ok that's several times now that "I'll Have Another" has beaten "Creative Cause" (knuckle under now will ya?)and THAT last once in the loonnngggg  Derby stretch  just to prove my point. I will say it again, young "Chocolate Chip" has a 5th gear kick I haven't seen since the like of "Curlin". "s-m-o-k-in' .... If he can handle the pressure Belmont distance and repeat his Derby performance in the Preakness and that doesn't take way too much out of him all happening so fast with little rest, we may really have something special here! Saying the coveted words 'triple crown winner', well it's tough to get the band wagon out of the garage for yet until the Preakness is over, but...

06 May 2012 10:38 AM
zarvona

 Quote from the AP   … “ he--[[“I’ll Have Another”]]--was largely a mystery to the record crowd of  65,307, who didn’t know 15-1 I’ll Have Another or the jockey had the right stuff until the 20-horse field turned for home, that’s when Gutierrez, who moved up between horses around the final turn and positioned his colt not far from the rail and set him down to run.”

       “I’ll Have Another overhauled a tiring Bodemeister to win by 1 ½  …”

 If he was a mystery to the crowd, the crowd are not HASKIN’s bloggers !!! nor do they live in Cal. and get newspaper with a  sports page ????  HE WON THE SANTA ANITA DERBY PEOPLE !!

       DO YOU KNOW HIM NOW ????!!!

("do you know me now")

       Note my brother tossed "Chocolate Chip" despite my ravings because he drew the #19 post & because he had a Rookie Jockey !!! I said you don’t won’t the 19-20 post “unless you have a closer!!!”, and this horse is a closer, and this horse IS THE MAN!! ((I also I admit I was a little nervous about the Jockey and the facts he ducked him in behind traffic a little early for my liking and when he made the final turn he wasn’t a bit more off the rail, but I said “IF HE IS AT THE FINAL TURN in the TOP 6 and not too far off the leader, LOOK OUT!! He was a bit far from the leader for my liking ((although I had BODEBEYER 1st and 2nd  also, and hey he won. so I have little else to complain about.  

  to the fab “BC Juv 4”…

“Hansen” #14  14 3 3 3 3 4 9

9th  + 11 ¾

his distance ability to carry his speed beyond 1 1/16 was always in doubt…

“Union Rags” #4 4 18 18 17 16 13 7th  +9 ½

his inside post & inability to handle traffic AGAIN, made him virtually a non playable

despite the HYPE & the low odds

“Creative Cause” #8 101011 5 3  5th + 6 ¾

a respectable showing for a horse I had as my BC Juv favorite--who let me down then & apparently who now let Steve down in the Derby

“Dullahan” #5 5-11-11-13-7 5

3rd + 1 1/2 & a neck

a respectable run for a horse who has shown continued improvement consistently & will be a serious Belmont consideration !!

“Take Charge Indy” #3  3  7  6  4  12 18    19th  DNF  !!  

What happened there???

Pulled up?? pulled out !! Injured ??

A report please !  ah OK  TY

“’Take Charge Indy’ was found to have a chip in his left front ankle after undergoing x-rays the morning of May 6th …” from Bloodhorse… TY for the news...

…and as to…

“Gemologist” #15  15  5   5  5 10 14

16th  + 30

lengths back? What happened there??? Pulled up ??

 A report please !

NOT only did I , my brother, Steve, June Byrne, Mark Johnson , and many others have this horse somewhere near the top or as the winner, PLEASE get us a report as to what happened there!!

06 May 2012 1:55 PM
El Kabong

Predict,

How'd you do? Your list was very close to mine and good enough for a tri. What up?

07 May 2012 1:09 PM
zarvona

  And heart felt condolences to Chuck Sanford and the connections of “Take Charge Indy”, where it looked like Ol’ Calvin “BORAIL” had gotten him into a fine position for a real go at it from the tough #3 post.

  Hmmm …only a 101 Beyer eh?. I tell ya, this horse , ‘Chocolate Chip’-“I’ll Have Another”,--he is like Roddy Dangerfield, he has gotten ‘no respect’.

07 May 2012 1:11 PM
zarvona

Mario "The ICE MAN"  Gutierrez

 Congrats to J.Paul Reddam and conections and to Doug F. O'Neill

WAY TO GO !!!

  Maryland here we come !! and I guess they won't be underplaying "THE ICEMAN" now !!!

07 May 2012 7:50 PM

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