Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

[brightcove videoid="2157471949001"]

1

Violence Todd Pletcher

Medaglia d’Oro—Violent Beauty, by Gone West

His schedule is pretty well mapped out, with the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby on tap. He’s a horse who not only wins, but knows how to win, always leaving something in the tank. Workouts progressing with a solid 1:01 breeze. FutureWager odds climbed from 9-1 to 13-1. If there is anyone who can knock some of these Pletcher powrhouses down to earth it is Pletcher himself. He has so many, pretty soon it’s going to be brother vs. brother and only the strongest will survive.

2

Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa Jr.

Lawyer Ron—Viva la Slew, by Doneraile Court

Some think he may be a Gulfstream horse, but he has won just as impressively at Calder, on a fast and sloppy track, and broke his maiden by at Monmouth Park. He has won five of his last six starts on dirt at three different racetracks at four different distances from five furlongs to 1 1/16 miles, and he’s won with four different jockeys aboard. His only defeat came over Delta Downs’ bullring track in the Delta Jackpot (gr. III). Plesa looks like the lone covered wagon surrounded by all these hostile Pletchers.

3

Shanghai Bobby Todd Pletcher

Harlan's Holiday—Steelin', by Orientate

He’s actually pretty far down on many Derby lists, especially with the emergence of new Pletcher dynamos and the low opinion people have of the BC Juvenile. But his body of work has been as impressive as any 2-year-old champ. Still, his Future Wager odds went from 8-1- to 11-1 to 14-1. He hasn’t worked since the Holy Bull. Hard to believe he still has only 24 points and has only the Florida Derby to accumulate enough points to secure a spot in the Derby field. Heck, Itsmyluckyday, with two big stakes wins this year, needs a big effort even more than he does.

4

Normandy Invasion Chad Brown

Tapit—Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor

Breezed five furlongs in a bullet 1:00 2/5 for much-anticipated debut, possibly in the Risen Star, where he would face runaway Lecomte winner Oxbow. Will we see that explosive move on the turn again? If he goes the full Fair Grounds route, we’ll get some indication whether or not he can sustain his run down a long stretch. He looked extremely enticing at 28-1 on Day 1 of the Future Wager, but closed at a more logical 15-1.

5

Revolutionary Todd Pletcher

War Pass—Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy

Another whose odds climbed in the first Future Wager from 8-1 to 13-1, but he’s still co-second choice among individual horses. He’s been sent to Palm Meadows and most likely will return to New York for the Wood Memorial, where we’ll see if he’s as effective on the main track. Alpha took this route last year and came back to run a huge race in the Wood.

6

Verrazano Todd Pletcher

More Than Ready—Enchanted Rock, by Giant’s Causeway

Half-interest has been sold to Coolmore. Few horses have started their career so brilliantly, which is why he is the 11-1 individual favorite in the Future Wager, based on only two career starts and no stakes appearances. Question is, can he move forward off that monster allowance score? Tampa Bay Derby would seem to be the most logical spot, giving him the most time to bounce back from that race. But so far, Pletcher hasn’t committed to any particular race.

7

Flashback Bob Baffert

Tapit—Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greeley

Four-horse field in the Robert Lewis is indicative of the lack of depth in the 3-year-old division in Southern California. Other than Goldencents and a slew of other Baffert horses, there doesn’t seem to be much out there as of now. Of course that could change in the San Felipe. But as of now it looks as if the Flashback—Goldencents clash in the San Felipe will determine the kingpin of the California 3-year-olds.

8

Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas

Awesome Again—Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy

The more Lukas is around him and watches him train the more he loves him. He should get a sterner test in the Risen Star, and if he can score another impressive victory or be right there with Normandy Invasion, he has to be considered a major contender, especially with his pedigree. He could be a good Future Wager bet at 26-1, but did plummet from 52-1.

9

Goldencents Doug O'Neill

Into Mischief—Golden Works, by Banker's Gold

O’Neill following a similar pattern to the one used with I’ll Have Another, which is long, fast works. His last four drills have been 6 furlongs in 1:11 4/5, 1:10 1/5, 1:10 1/5, and 1:12 2/5. Just like the Fountain of Youth showdown, his bout with Flashback in the San Felipe is greatly anticipated. And there won’t be anyone fitter for that race.

10

Overanalyze Todd Pletcher

Dixie Union—Unacloud, by Unaccounted For

He, along with Delhomme and Capo Bastone, are the quiet ones who have gotten lost in the Pletcher parade of stars. How strong is the Todd Squad? Here is a Remsen winner at 33-1, while the third-place finishers in the BC Juvenile (Capo Bastone) and Remsen (Delhomme) are 58-1 and 55-1. Remember, it is often the quiet ones that turn out to be the most dangerous. The Gotham, run in Repoleville, looks like the most likely spot for his debut.

11

Tiz the Truth Bob Baffert

Tiznow—Truly Blessed, by French Deputy

He’s the kind of horse you’d love to take a chance on in the Future Wager, but as part of the 9-5 mutuel field it’s a total waste of time. Problem with the Future Wager is there is no first floor from which to start; the elevator goes right to the penthouse, leaving a potential find like him unbettable. But he sure isn’t the only lesser-known horse on some people’s radar screen who is a non-entity in the Future Wager.

12

Dynamic Sky Mark Casse

Sky Mesa—Murani, by Distorted Humor

I could have put any one of a dozen horses in this spot, but the Pletcher cutoff is five and the others look no better or worse than he does. Many Tampa Bay Derby winners lose one of the first two preps, so he deserves another chance. But it is imperative he starts showing a bit more professionalism, even with the blinkers. Resisted the temptation once again to return Palace Malice to the list, based on the Pletcher rule. Can’t get rid of the nagging feeling he could be the diamond in the rough among all those shiny, bright gems.

Knocking At The Door

A sneaky horse with Derby credentials hidden under a blanket of grass is BALANCE THE BOOKS, who breezed a half in :49 2/5. If he goes grass race and Blue Grass Stakes, I’ll keep away until he proves he can handle dirt. Putting all your eggs in one Polytrack basket isn’t for me. I still don’t trust Keeneland’s Polytrack and no trainer should either, if his horse has never been over it and it’s going to decide whether he gets in the Derby or not. If he’s another Animal Kingdom, so be it. But Animal Kingdom, by running in the Spiral, left himself enough time to get another prep in if he didn’t handle the surface. Now, if this colt goes a different route, with his breeding and closing punch, then I’m all over him.

If you like Oxbow, he may have competition in his own barn from TITLETOWN FIVE, an absolutely brilliant colt who is back working after suffering a chip in his knee last year. The son of Tiznow was beaten a neck by Violence in a seven-furlong maiden race at Saratoga before romping by nine lengths at Churchill Downs, earning a 98 Beyer. The runner-up, Bradester, came back to win his next two starts and the third-place finisher, Proud Strike, recently destroyed a maiden field at Fair Grounds by 7 1/2 lengths. In the Violence race, he finished a head in front of Orb, who has come back to win his next two starts. Watch out for this guy if he makes it back in time.

Chad Brown might have another good one in SAINT VIGEUR, who scored a game wire-to-wire maiden victory going 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream with first-time blinkers. By Smart Strike, out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, he definitely is not lacking in pedigree.

DYNAMIC STRIKE, another Smart Strike, made it four-for-four for Dickie Small with a workmanlike score in the one-mile Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel. Perhaps it’s time to try this colt outside Maryland.

98 Comments

Leave a Comment:

jabark131

Mr. Haskin-

I was wondering if you may know why Departing is not Triple Crown nominated?

11 Feb 2013 2:44 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

I had a top twenty in December but then had a computer virus and lost everything and am just getting back into the Derby Dozen swing of things. At this point it is just for fun and won't be serious business until after the big preps.

1. Itsmyluckyday

2. Revolutionary

3. Oxbow

4. Tiz the Truth

5. Titletown Five

6. Shanghai Bobby

7. Violence

8. Whoever Calvin rides

9-12-Remains to be seen.

11 Feb 2013 4:20 PM
All the Kings Horses

Steve watch out for Orb think he is dangerous & Shug usually is quiet but starting to talk this one up some of late.Also think Delhomme will be heard from as well.

11 Feb 2013 5:13 PM
josh

Park city was impressive at GP on Saturday. I like his style, I thought he at least deserved a mention on here.

Steve,

If Tiz the Truth is in your top 12, Demonic should be too. Demonic defeated Tiz the Truth on the button. That should speak dividends for him.

11 Feb 2013 5:54 PM
Steve Haskin

Josh, this is not about who wins every 3-year-old race, it's about who's going to win the Kentucky Derby. It's Feb. 11 and Demonic has had a total of one 6 furlong race in his life. Why would I consider him a Derby horse? If they want to rush such an inexperienced, unseasoned horse to make the Derby, I'll deal with that when the time comes. As for Park City, his race was OK, but this is a horse wih two short sprints in his career and his owner also owns Shanghai Bobby. Why would they rush this horse to also make the Derby. They tried doing that with Keyed Entry years ago and he finished last. I think they learned a lesson from that.

11 Feb 2013 6:47 PM
duncanp

Watch for Majestic Hussar, trained by Eddie Keneally.  He's got everything you want in a Derby horse and he's on the Derby trail.  

Lyn C.

11 Feb 2013 7:00 PM
iceman92

revolutionary's run in the withers immediately reminded me of spectacular bids snakelike win in the florida derby back in the 70's. hoping to see a cleaner getaway and more prominent position from him in his next start. also thrilled to see violence is relative of last years hall of fame inductee sky beauty (it was about time).

11 Feb 2013 7:02 PM
It aint easy being good!

ORB baby he is a stonefaced closer that gives it his all. True stamina horse. ORB has all the tools that you need. Question BB referred to flashback as a monster. I was curious on how often BB calls his horses monsters because if he is saying this it has to hold some weight! I thought bodemiester was a monster!

11 Feb 2013 7:05 PM
Mookie's Hero

Intuition says Texas Bling and Will Take Charge will make the Derby field and that it is time for a grey horse to win the Kentucky Derby ( remember Giacomo)

Good Luck to everyone with their picks.

Mookie's Hero

11 Feb 2013 7:29 PM
The Pope

I just made my future bets and covered three individual horses I thought were bargain prices. But now that I'm looking at the past performances again there's one horse I left out who really scares me and it's Overanalyze! He's got an ideal running style, good connections, a good 2 year old foundation, and most importantly a race over the CD strip. And to make matters worse the bettors let him go off at 33-1, a big underlay from his 15-1 morning line. Watch out for this one because I can only see climbing the derby dozen!

11 Feb 2013 7:44 PM
PickingTheDerbyWinnerSomeday

And after more research here are my 3 out of the clouds picks....

1. Tiz The Truth - I read Gary Stevens cam back for this horse (Baffert)

2. Shakin it Up - saw a replay and this horse came flying under a hand ride (Baffert)

3. Proud Strike - Ran 3 wide on both turns under a handride...(Assmusen)

With this run I looked at the breeding and the connections

11 Feb 2013 7:51 PM
Point Given

1. Flashback

2. Belvin

3. War Academy

4. Tiz The Truth

5. Shakin It Up

6. Code West

7. Curly Top

8. Sper Ninety Nine

9. Power Broker

10. Title Contender

11. Den's Legacy

12. Del Mar Sunset

13. Govenor Charlie

14. Manando

15. Carving

16. Aleander

17. Battled

18. Imperial Fortune

19. Zee Bros

20. Unbridled Giant

Will see you at the TC's winners circle.

11 Feb 2013 7:53 PM
Age of Reason

First off, Steve, thank you so much for your other recent blog with so many photos of past racing greats. I truly felt privileged that you once again opened up your personal vault and shared some of the awesomeness with us all; each photo was a lesson in memorable beauty. Thank you!

Like many of the rest of you, due to the lack of noteworthy 3yo races over the past week my Dozen had a reprieve from any groundbreaking changes, thus: (1)Itsmyluckyday (still #1; Lawyer Ron/Doneraile Court, Plesa); (2)Violence (up from #3; Medaglia d’Oro/Gone West, Pletcher); (3) Belvin (down from #2; Empire Maker/Storm Bird, Baffert); (4) Oxbow (remains #4; Awesome Again/Cee’s Tizzy, Lukas); (5) Revolutionary (Still #5; War Pass/A.P. Indy, Pletcher); (6) Normandy Invasion (remains #6; Tapit/Boston Harbor, Chad Brown). The bottom half I'm keeping in the same order, for now: (7) Elmutahid (Street Cry [Ire]/Dixieland Band, McLaughlin); (8) Transparent (Bernardini/Unbridled’s Song, McLaughlin); (9) Tiz The Truth (Tiznow/French Deputy, Baffert); (10) Omega Star (Candy Ride [Arg]/Fusaichi Pegasus, Shirreffs); (11) Elnaawi (Street Sense/Deputy Minister, McLaughlin); (12) Verrazano (More Than Ready/Giant’s Causeway, Pletcher); and, not only am I keeping a Baker's Dozen with (13) Footbridge (Street Cry[Ire]/Dubai Millenium[GB], Eoin Harty), but I'll also throw in Declan's Warrior (Majestic Warrior/Saint Ballado, Zito) in a deadheat for #13 to keep some self-consistency with my January prediction that Zito might have a 'hot hand' come Derby day.

11 Feb 2013 8:41 PM
mrullo

steve,

You dont have your fact's right, Demonic won at 7 furlongs and beat the 11th horse on your list.

11 Feb 2013 8:46 PM
Rondo

Revolutionary rans a MONSTER race in the withers. Want to see this one with room to run in the stretch!

11 Feb 2013 9:43 PM
Don from PA/DE

Thanks again SH, not much new info to go on, but was drawn in again to at least place 2 $2.00 bets on KD future, looking for high value,

picked on west coast horse #18 Super 99 @47-1 and one east coast horse #22 Vyjack @49-1, my motto will be to each horse ........,,,SH "Stay Healthy"

11 Feb 2013 10:35 PM
hirize

Orb is still the sleeper.  Shug is playing coy but he should make his presence felt in the FOY.  Shug has not had a serious contender since Coronado's Quest but he is long overdue!

11 Feb 2013 10:45 PM
the artist

Thank you steve for derby dozen, I enjoy it every week. I just want to put out there and this is my opinion, I think ismyluckyday is a good horse but don't think he could handle the derby distance, I saw lawyer Ron race and he was great to 1 1/8 saying that even my favorite Violence is not breed for the distance either, remember rachel alexandra, I hope i'm wrong. now Oxbow is over rated, I see him losing the risen star.

11 Feb 2013 11:27 PM
Sam Santschi

Steve, thanks always for your columns.  Made a couple of flyer bets in KDFW on Code West and Dynamic Sky then to add to the madness, boxed those two with Violence, It's my lucky day and the field.  It's only money, right?  Plus its always fun to have one or two u like in Feb, even make the race.  

11 Feb 2013 11:46 PM
JayJay

Steve : Agree about Palace Malice being the gem in Pletcher's group but I haven't really heard much where he's going next.  I do see he's been working steadily so hopefully that means he'll be running soon.

12 Feb 2013 1:02 AM
joepo

Steve - My major focus on Pool 1 was Oxbow. I was glad to get 26-1 on him. I bet exacta boxes with Violence/ItsMyLuckyDay/Flashback/Verrazano/N. Invasion/Overanalyze/DynamicSky. Was surprised to see my #1 and youre #1 Violence climb to 13-1, so I did some straight exactas with him over  Itsmyluckyday/Flashback/N.Invasion/Overanalyze/Dynamic Sky. I'm hoping Verrazono doesn't run in the TB Derby. I'd love to see Dynamic Sky win this one. I think he could be a live longshot at good odds, even if he were to win the TB Derby. Looking forward to Violence running in the Fountain of Youth, hoping Oxbow can win the Risen Star, or be right there with N. Invasion. Oxbow has a CD win, which is always a plus. Flashback will be tested on 3-9 by Goldencents, I have a feeling he will pass the test.

12 Feb 2013 3:21 AM
zarvona

Yes, I suspected there would be no changes in ‘the dozen’s’ rankings from week 2-3, unless you started falling in love with someone more than “Tiz the Truth”,--where it seems to me that the past has suggested that “Tiznow” offspring are late developers,--or you got just plain lazy or decided to take a week off before starting crunch time.

 So anyway, the question remains, as it always does this time of year, …

“Will the ‘Storm Cat Curse’” fall this year or stand?”

 Now, after the “Bodemeister”--the ‘Bode Beyer Monster’--out in the lead in the stretch by a zillion failing last year with some SA Derby winning ‘cookie monster’--“I’ll Have Another” in the hunt flying past him late, yes the dreaded ‘Storm Cat Curse’ still looms. In fact, only  “Bodemeister” and “Bluegrass Cat” even ever got 2nd in “THE DERBY” if memory serves me.--However, what a collection the ‘ol’ stormy cat’,--still the most bred sire ever?--brings into the crowd this year. And, I am sure I missed a dozen or more.

  For starters, his seemingly best hopefuls so far--that being in my eyes--include:

“Bradester”; “Carving”; “Cerro”; “Dynamic Sky”; “Falling Sky”; “Forty Tales”; “Frac Daddy”; “Goldencents”; “Shanghai Bobby”; “Violence”; “War Academy”; and “West Hill Giant”… no shabby collection there…

…and then there are always: “Dewey Square”; “Distinctiv Passion”; “El Duro”: “Know More”; “Mannado”; “Merit Man”; “Little Distorted”,--although I am not sure of his status now that Downey dropped him?;--““Northern Lion”; or “Noble Tune”; … whom still might slip into a gate slot…

… plus there are all those that loom as even longer-shot ‘newbies’ that we haven’t yet considered in:

“Appealing Tale”;  “Coastal Breeze”; “Declassify”; “Doherty”; “Eton Blue”; “Govenor Charlie”;

“Inspired Hero”; “Intrepid Citizen”; “Lemon Drop Dream”; “Malibu High”; “Park City”; “Saint Vigeur”; “Tesseron”; “Treasury Bill”; “Unbridled Giant”; and “Winning Cause” … being among those that I know of, and many of which I have already looked the breeding up on,--although I am sure that there are more out there that might pop up.--

 So, will ‘the curse’ stand or fall and what are the odds ‘the curse’ will be broken? I guess with all those relatives now floating around, “Ol’ Storm Cat’s” odds must be looking better. Thusly though the question also still remains, should we start, or keep looking harder elsewhere for the winner in 2013 ?? “Itsmyluckyday”?; “Verragano”?; or will we be shocked with yet a new shooter all together much as the “Bode Monster” appeared late last year??

12 Feb 2013 4:21 AM
Steve Haskin

Duncanp, I agree about Majestic Hussar. I;m not sure how far he wants to go, but he looked awfully good beating Palace Malice going 7f. I'm waiting to write something about him as soon as I find out what the plans are.

There have been a lot of touts for Orb, and it would be super to see Shug and Janney/Phipps get to the Derby. My only concern right now is that in his last win he ran a full second slower than Cerro (1:50 - 1:51), who won the other division. But if he can move forward in the FOY then he'll have to be taken seriously.

Mrullo, I stand corrected, but it's not the distance as much as having only one start. Do you try to squeeze in 3 more starts before the Derby and still have only 4 career starts? That's asking a lot of a young brilliant horse and he does have a very bright future. And the horse I have at #11 has more starts and has already won at a mile, and he took all the worst of it in their one meeting.

JayJay, I think Palace Malice needs to go two turns if hes going to get to the Derby the right way. I was thinking maybe the Risen Star. Pletcher just has so many horses going everywhere, he's likley going to have to run him against another of his horses. But we'll see what he decides

12 Feb 2013 7:26 AM
Bigtex

Steve,

What % of the time do you find a Derby winner that doesn't have:

A really good mind

Competitive heart

Exceptional turn of foot

Stamina...

But wins because they grind it out?

It's pretty low isn't it?  Maybe Super Saver won that way?

12 Feb 2013 9:42 AM
hirize

Steve:  Orb's running time last out is not indicative of how well he ran.  He got shuffled back to last in the first turn against a slow pace and still rallied to win while running lengths farther than the rest of the horses.  Had he not got shuffled and layed closer perhaps his running time would have been faster! He's the Rodney Dangerfield this year, No Respect!  Also, I trust Shug when he says there is more in the tank!

Point Given:  Hate to bust your bubble but the East Coast horses are better!

12 Feb 2013 9:57 AM
CICADA100

Steve,

I'm just amazed that this year's three year old crop is so good.   There are so many good and potentially great horses out there.  MY PERSONAL FAVORITES ARE:

GROUP ONE:

VERRAZANO

FLASHBACK

ITSMYLUCKYDAY

GROUP TWO:

VIOLENCE

PALACE MALICE

NORMANDY INVASION

GROUP THREE:

MAJESTIC HUSSAR

ORB

DELHOMME

MY BIG QUESTION MARK IS PURPLE EGG?

THE REST OF THE BEST:

REVOLUTIONARY

SHANGHAI BOBBY

GOLDENCENTS

OXBOW

TITLETOWN FIVE

TRANSPARENT

TIZ THE TRUTH

SAINT VIGEUR

AND THESE THAT SHOW A LOT OF PROMISE:

DEMONIC

POWER BROKER

WAR ACADAMY

DECLAN'S WARRIOR

Thanks for your column every week, Steve...

12 Feb 2013 10:00 AM
Mahuba

About the "Storm Cat Curse"---

I remember when the "Bold Ruler Curse" said Secretariat couldn't go the Derby distance!

12 Feb 2013 10:53 AM
Johnny

You guys scared of Coldfacts now we have half the postings as usual.

I hear your angle regarding Orb. I have came to accept times in different races sometimes mean something and sometimes they don't.

I hope that clears things up for everyone.

12 Feb 2013 10:58 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Hirize -

As an Orb fan - he occupies spot one of my one horse list - may I offer the following:

While he did record his second Racing Flow upgrade last out, his second in three starts, I think you have made some faulty assumptions regarding what 'would have happened if...'.

We believe, contrary to the opinion of many,  removing trouble, real or otherwise, from a horse's running line does not guarantee a better performance. Changing the energy distribution pattern of any horse would likely impact that runner's performance, sometimes for the good and sometimes not. To assume that a better start means the horse would have run lengths faster is speculation. We prefer to judge the merits of performance as they have been recorded using quantifiable measures without being influenced by 'ifs and woulda'.

12 Feb 2013 11:40 AM
trackjack

"Cold-hearted ORB that rules the night

Removes the colors from our sight

Red is grey and yellow white,

But we decide which is right

And which is an illusion".

Shug worked Orb 3F in 37:20 on 2/6 and 4F breezing in 49:20 yesterday.  I like Orb, everything about him but it's way to early for predictions.  My fab five at this point are:

1. Violence

2. Orb

3. Tiz the Truth

4. Revolutionary

5. Oxbow

A lot can happen between now and May 4, especially the inevitable injuries that will come.  Looking forward to the Risen Star and FOY.

Which one will be right?

Which ones will be illusions?

Is ther one out there like a 'Knight in White Satin' to save the day?

Thanks for your columns, Steve.

12 Feb 2013 11:50 AM
zarvona

Well, as to those many 'dozens' that I have looked into already breeding wise when considering 'stamina' and ‘distance’ rated ability... "Majestic Hussar" ranks right up in my top dozen still as noted in week one. But, we still have to see development and see them on the track, as a few also rated exceptionally high for distance and stamina have failed miserably so far,--such as “Valid”. But, then again gee, he fell out of the gate, nearly lost his jockey, and somehow finished 4th.--So, ya never know what a little more training and growing might do for the likes of those like him that are “BRED FOREVEA”. Then again, there is always the “Belmont” for the rest of late bloomers bred for two miles and not just one.  

12 Feb 2013 12:11 PM
Mary in VT

Regarding Violence, I'm having trouble thinking of a Medaglia d’Oro offspring that was classy at 1.25 miles. Can anyone else think of any?

12 Feb 2013 1:11 PM
Karen in Texas

JayJay----HRN shows Palace Malice to be starting next in the FOY. (Not sure of their accuracy.)

12 Feb 2013 1:41 PM
Kyri

I put futures bets in Pool 1 on Flashback, Itsmyluckyday, and a horse I don't see mentioned here... Super Ninety Nine. This Baffert trainee has tons to prove and a lot of catching up to do, but he ran well stretching out in distance for the first time and just has the look of a very classy individual.

12 Feb 2013 2:17 PM
Coldfacts

Johnny,

When Mr. Haskin’s posted his initial Derby list, I questioned the exclusion of Orb. I subsequently realized that I failed to recognize that he was mentioned in the last sentence of the Blog.

Orb impressed me with his 3rd place finish to Violence after spotting his 5L at the start. I was all over him in his next start but noticed a disturbing running pattern. The colt appears lazy and had to be hard ridden to sustain the advantage he secured over the runner up. The pattern was similar in his most recent victory. In fact, I wager against him in favor of the runner up Duke Of The City. Revisit the video and you will notice that after he passed Duke Of The City he had to be hard ridden to repel the resurgent runner up whose PP suggested he had less foundation for the distance contested.

Horses like Orb that have to be ridden vigorously for major portions of a race because of their lazy galloping style, are unlikely to be effective at the Derby distance. They and their riders will exert so much energy that they become none factors when it matters.

Could something be wrong with the colt? His trainer is world class and should be able to detect any problems. He certainly has not shown that burst of speed that brought him with 2 1/2L of Violence in his subsequent races.

My assessment could be wrong.

12 Feb 2013 2:34 PM
All the Kings Horses

Orb as we followers know has some bad gate habits & leaves himself alot of xtra work.Shug says he is getting better & thats enough for me.If he turns the corner from here he could be lights out & headed for NY & the Wood !

12 Feb 2013 3:03 PM
Paula Higgins

1. Violence

2. Revolutionary

3. Itsmyluckyday

4. Shanghai Bobby

5. Flashback

6. Normandy Invasion

7. Verrazano

8. Oxbow

12 Feb 2013 3:04 PM
Karen in Texas

JayJay----I'm now seeing a quote from the Dogwood stable saying Palace Malice may go to the Risen Star. Here's a link.

www.aikenstandard.com/.../campbell-pleased-with-palace-malice

12 Feb 2013 3:21 PM
Kyri

...and I just saw where Super Ninety Nine has been entered in the Southwest Stakes.

12 Feb 2013 4:21 PM
jackson

It-looks-like-Sky-Captain-will-be-a-late-blooming-Grade-II-specialist?

12 Feb 2013 7:06 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

L.Jones Divine Happiness broke her maiden in a cakewalk today in the 6th at FG,do you think it is possible to run her in the Oaks and defend the barns title in that race? Believe You Can won last year.Equibase chart list the margin at 9.5.

12 Feb 2013 7:12 PM
steve from st louis

I'd love to know how Pletcher could even begin to map out campaigns for all of his runners. Are there even enough pointed races around the country to keep his stable from running into each other? Even in Calumet's heyday, Ben Jones had 10% of the worries Pletcher must have. How many riders have calls on his stable? I'm sure the Derby is bittersweetfor him  for all his other horses who don't make it there on that Saturday in May.

12 Feb 2013 7:31 PM
JIMF552

Shug stated this past weekend on the Mark Cusano show that he would prefer running ORB in a 2 other than but doesn't see one in NY or Florida. He may reluctantly enter in FOY.

12 Feb 2013 7:42 PM
PomDeTerre

normandy invasion

it's my lucky day

flashback- in that order

12 Feb 2013 7:46 PM
Lammtarra's Arc

I put my Future bets in.

Oxbow 28/1

Revolutionary 12/1

Uncaptured 55/1

Dynamic Sky 62/1

Good luck folks.

12 Feb 2013 8:02 PM
El Kabong

Coldfacts,

Well said. Good to hear from you. Your initial assessment may have been off but whose initial assessment wasn't?  Mine resides in Uncaptured and I still have know idea what kind of 3 year old he is. Like the post anyway.

12 Feb 2013 9:06 PM
JayJay

Karen In Texas : THANKS!  I checked downeyprofile after I saw your post and sure enough, they have Risen Star listed as his possible next start.  He'll be going up against my other favorite MyLute in the Risen Star so it'll be a fun weekend for me.

12 Feb 2013 9:52 PM
-Keelerman

Shh, Steve! Titletown Five is my little secret! :)

It seems that Gary Stevens has found himself another potential Derby mount. With Brian Hernandez Jr. scheduled to ride Departing in the Risen Star, Stevens has gained the mount on Proud Strike.

On a similar note, it sounds as though Code West -- the runner-up to Super Ninety Nine in the latter's recent allowance victory -- will ship to Fair Grounds to contest the Risen Star. With Normandy Invasion, Oxbow, Palace Malice, Code West, Departing, and others all pointing toward the Risen Star, it's beginning to look as though that race will be one of the most influential Derby preps of the year!

-Keelerman

12 Feb 2013 9:57 PM
hirize

Coldfacts:  There have been many horses with a galloping style that have won the Derby and it sometimes takes them a little while to figure it out early.  Orb reminds me of Real Quiet, remember him so lazy it took him 7 starts to break his maiden.  There is nothing wrong with Orb, just took him a little time to figure things out.  Let's see if Violence can hold him off going 2 turns in the FOY, I don't think he can.  Violence, Vyjack, Revolutionary are 3 of the most talked about 3 year old's out there and Orb has been right there with them. If he were trained by Pletcher he'd  be top 5 for sure!

12 Feb 2013 9:58 PM
Johnny

Coldfacts:

You write better than I ever could.

Last year your horse was coming from the Illinois Derby I recall finished 2nd in the race.

You were touting running style this style and that style. Speed bias this and Speed bias that.

This breeding and that breeding.

Your opinion is fun to read like all others.

Orb won his last race and seems to be on the improve.

Enough for me right now.

Of course I am subject to change my mind.

12 Feb 2013 10:30 PM
Mister Frisky

Most these don't seem to have enough stamina in the pec to get up even in a pedestrian Derby.The Lukas horse is the one that stands out to me.The coach might have one more left in the tank.

12 Feb 2013 10:36 PM
KY VET

NEWS FLASH.......to all thr DINOSAURS.........don't get left behind....the game is changing.....there will be more and more lightly raced horses running in,and winning the derby.......why? The people involved are getting smarter...Gone will be the days when most entrants will have 8 to ten races before the derby....it simply is the right, smart thing to do.....training by yourself, is a controlled environment. Your horse gets to run straight, no traffic, no bumping, as fast as you want.....GET ON BOARD!....People , animal kingdom's last 2 races were off long layoffs....why do you people think hes not in shape? I'll have another.....layoff.....GOOD races HURT horses!.......YOU better change the way you think.....don't be left behind...........

12 Feb 2013 10:52 PM
fbwinners

The Risen Star is shaping up to a great race.  Normandy Invasion, Palace Malice, Oxbow, Mylute, Code West and several locals as well.  Keep a eye on Always In A Tiz on President's day in the Southwest, he will beat Super Ninety Nine from the Baffert barn.

12 Feb 2013 11:26 PM
Forbidden Apple

I found it interesting that Bernardini did not even make the top 70 list of Leading Sires of 2 year olds in 2012. I remember commenting early last year that he is not worthy of his $125,000 stud fee.

With Tapit's insane career at stud, I still don't understand how anyone could knock him as a sire. Dance Card and Flashback are shining examples of a quality horse by Tapit.

Good luck on Valentine's Day to Fortify!

More sad news for this horse racing fan, the early retirement of Questing. This little package of dynamite had much more to offer the racing world.

13 Feb 2013 12:07 AM
Greg R

Dr Drunkinbum,

    No love for Verrazano?  And I noticed several others did not include Verrazano.  Yes, he's not run in a stake yet, but a horse shouldn't run in a stake in his first two starts.  He was more impressive in his races than some of the stakes winners have been in their stakes wins.  I wouldn't put him on top, but like the way he covers a lot of ground.

13 Feb 2013 12:16 AM
tjconway

I'm sorry. On the surface, this is not a "strong" crop of three-year-olds......competitive....sure........"strong"? Nope!

It's like if you apply for a job and they advertise the wages as being "competitive"......they aren't "competitive"...they are just "LOW"!!!!!!!

There are many horses in here who do not wanna go a 1 1 1/4.....let's be honest!

13 Feb 2013 6:46 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Greg R

   A couple of powerful performances in excellent times so far for Verrazano but I need to see him against stronger competition at 9f. So far I see him as more of an 8 and 8.5 runner. He's not one that I'm sold on yet as a 10f prospect but he is exciting and I'm certainly open to changing my mind. It's really too early in the process for me this year.

13 Feb 2013 10:07 AM
zarvona

 As to a talent out there in the field this year, I personally think there are some great horses out there already for sure and its looking like a deep field to boot. Yeah, you can say we haven’t seen a SUPERSTAR, but 105, 104, and 100 Beyer rated figures don’t fall off of trees. Moreover, there are many still in the pastures growing.

 And hey, there aren’t that many now days that are bred for distance races when the majority of the races out there are run at 1 1/8 or shorter and mostly shorter anyway. Thusly, with the majority of the races run shorter during the year, if you were going to be a race horse owner, would you be spending big money say $150K to $350K buying a super looking ‘miler’ that could win at 7 fur., or a mile, or a 1 1/16  or just a horse that might win only say the Belmont???

13 Feb 2013 10:13 AM
zarvona

 Yeah, we always consider Baffert’s and Pletcher’s horses just because more owners ship to them. {{I always dreamt of them flying 10 horses a piece to some familiar dirt track, maybe CD, loading up 20 gate slots and then running some mock race of their own!!! in say Jan.,--where actually as noted before either could fill all 20 gates alone in any of the past several Kty. Derby years if they could qualify them all!!!,--and then we could all gage from there. But, guessing with the mere cost of all of that, that will never happen…}}

  But memory again serving me, each of those two trainers only got 2 horses a piece from their vast collections into the Kty. Derby last year, Baffert with “MC’s Dream”, I mean umm  “Bodemeister” and “Liason”,--with “BodeBeyer” in for 2nd, yet for a fleeting moment looking like the winner,--and Pletcher with “El Padrino” who finished 13th and “Gemologist”,--who unfortunately broke down.--So, just because they get more chargers sent their way than the rest, and although in shear numbers they look like more than mere mortals with so many out there running in the various preps, ‘Todd’ has only won one Kty. Derby with “Super Saver”, and yet ‘Bobby’ a few more.

  It just ain’t no easy road to greatest horse traffic jam on the planet and then also producing the winner.

  So, maybe then there is something to be said for the trainers that get to concentrate solely on much lesser numbers, where they can spend more time concentrating with their one or fewer mounts. That then being against a trainer, per say, trying to appease twenty plus owners and worrying about where and when they have to run so many in their charge.--Of course, there is nothing wrong with the profits in being able to handle so many.—But, for us just thinking only about THE KENTUCKY DERBY and its eventual potential winner, maybe some promising Colt,--like “Falling Sky” for example,--who’s trainer--Terranova--isn’t attempting to appease so many other owners,--although I know that each has other lesser graded mounts to also worry about, and also older ones, and others, and etc.,--whereby thusly such trainers actually have a real shot, being where they can spend more time in training with their real say one potential rising fame and money maker, all much like last year with Doug O’Neill and “I’ll Have Another”, or previously with H. Graham Motion and “Animal Kingdom”, or like in the case with “Rick” Dutrow and “Big Brown”, and etc.

13 Feb 2013 10:33 AM
Plod Boy Phil

TJConway -

It's February 13th.  The verdict is already in ?

It's premature to judge an entire crop of horses based on a single race (Derby, let alone halfway through the second month of the year.

What method are you using to make such an evaluation?

13 Feb 2013 10:39 AM
Karen in Texas

Keelerman----I had similar thoughts late yesterday when Palace Malice was confirmed for the Risen Star and Gary was announced as the rider for Asmussen's Proud Strike. The FOY has drawn much attention, but the Risen Star may prove to be quite "influential", as you say. Apparently Rosie will be on Palace Malice; can't wait to see how this race unfolds!

13 Feb 2013 11:30 AM
Pedigree Ann

Forbidden Apple -

Tapit has a formidable record as a sire, but it is the rare Tapit, who without the help of a staying damline, can even think about winning at 10f in a truly-run race. And the Kentucky Derby is the most likely 10f race in this country to be truly run, i. e. there is a proper pace up front early, none of this 24+, 48+. stuff.

13 Feb 2013 11:53 AM
Secreteriat

I do not have a derby dozen but with so many good horses in the all others I went with All others with All and All with all others in the Future Wager. This may sound foolish but 11 out of 23 payoffs are doubling the investment. Worst case scenario is minus $2.00 Good Luck to all of you.

13 Feb 2013 2:35 PM
Linda in Texas

Congratulations to Rachel Alexandra, Bernardini, and Stonestreet on the new addition.  We will now be able to watch mother, father, daughter, son and Aunt Samantha Nicole. It's all in the family and that is a very nice Valentine's Greeting for all of us.

Thank you, Steve. Love all of the photos and of course your history with them. We are so lucky.

And Happy Valentine's Day to everyone.

Linda

13 Feb 2013 2:50 PM
THEHOLZ

CANNOT WAIT TO SEE WAR ACADEMY. WILL BE BOBBY B BEST HORSE. PEDIGREE SUGGESTS HE CAN BE A BEAST. WOULD LOVE TO BET HIM ON A FUTURE PLAY SOON AS A INDIVIDUAL BET AT SOMETHING LIKE 25-1.

13 Feb 2013 4:02 PM
zarvona

    The Associated Press’s

      1st Top Ten List:

   #1.)  “Shanghai Bobby”:  

   #2.)  “Itsmyluckyday”:

   #3.)  “Goldencents”:  

   #4.)  “Violence”:

   #5.)  “Verragona”:    

   #6.)  “Flashback”:  

   #7.)  “Den’s Legacy”:

   #8.)  “Overanalyze”:  

   #9.)  “Oxbow”:

  #10.)  “Dynamic Sky”:    

13 Feb 2013 4:12 PM
Carlos in Cali

Forbidden Apple

Bernardini has sired a Travers winner in his 1st 2-crops,along with multiple SW throughout the world. $125,000 is a bargain,IMO.

13 Feb 2013 5:32 PM
El Kabong

Woohooo!

Uncaptured

Date: February 13, 2013

Track: OCALA TRAINING CENTER

Distance: Three Furlongs

Time: 35:60 Breezing

Track Condition: Fast

Surface: All Weather Track

Rank: 1/7

13 Feb 2013 5:52 PM
tjconway

Plod Boy Phil,

   I'm not using any "method". I'm just not seeing alot of potential for many of the horses. I would have to pick "Revolutionary" right now(if the race was today). Of the last 30 crops of 3-year-olds,only 2 or 3 seasons have been excellent. I guess I'm waiting for another Sunday Silence-Easy Goer Battle Royale! We're due!

14 Feb 2013 7:37 AM
Bigtex

KY VET

I'd still rather see 7 - 12 races as a foundation for these horses plus give their young minds the experience to put it all together for the big race.  

But I'm selfish, too, I want to see them race.

14 Feb 2013 10:51 AM
KY VET

YES.....ive won more money in the kentucky derby, than any other race.....ive always had a good eye for talent......but, it takes more than talent........every year, there is a really good early fav. for the derby...every year! But how many 2yr old champions have won in the last 20 yrs? one? two?.....why is this? You breeding people always think its the distance thing.....the reason is, racing super sharp, for that long, is very, very, rare........horses just cant stay sharp that long! When will you learn? The biggest payoff ive had, on the early wager,was 500 w on champ street sense....why did i bet him? He ran much the best in the juv..yes...but i knew the trainer....he gave him only 2 preps...that were just avg. races...thats the key! YOU CANNOT BE ON TOP OF YOUR GAME IN JAN>!!!    Which leads us to the HUGE MISTAKE people are making.....ITSMYLUCKYDAY....AND OXBOW.....are two examples.........THEY HAVE NO CHANCE! NONE!........they got too good too fast.........go back, and name the derby winners, that improved and fired such big improvements in jan. ...and won the derby!........keep lookin......last year was close.....ill have another was sharp, but really not too sharp....the beauty was the long layoff by the trainer........absolutely. great, smart training job.......once a horse is sharp,like itsmyluckyday, he has to run 2 maybe 3 more great races....too many to pull off!   ASK YOURSELF...why no triple crown winners!   SAme reason.....its too hard to stay sharp that long......RANAG! you like both itsmyluckyday, and OXBOW!!!!!OMG!......RETHINK!!!!!   Everybody!!!!!!!!!!

14 Feb 2013 10:32 PM
Greg R

Dr Drunkinbum:

   I, too, would be leery of a More Than Ready colt as regards the 1 1/4 KY Derby, but more than one prominent handicapping writer and broadcaster has now moved him to the top of his Derby horse list, somewhat surprisingly. He doesn't strike me as a typical More Than Ready, physically.  And, as I've pointed out, More Than Ready is related to classic winners Hansel and Sunday Silence. More Than Ready is more than ready to break out of the short to mid-distance mold as a sire of a classic winner, given the right match, as did Elusive Quality, Distorted Humor, Boundary, Mr. Prospector (Fu Peg), etc.  Who knows?

14 Feb 2013 11:21 PM
Forbidden Apple

Who did Bernardini ever beat, really? Bluegrass Cat in an average Travers, big deal. And Stay Thirsty too, he beat Rattlesnake Bridge, wow. His Travers time was 2:03, Shackleford was spent from 3/4 in 1:12.

Is it possible that the Pletcher factor has many people crazy over Revolutionary? He beat nothing and was extremely lucky to run down tired horses. He has to prove much more, could be a closing sprinter/miler.

Itsmyluckyday runs 2 excellent races and now some of you think he will be tired next out. Why? It is more likely that his best races are ahead of him. But Verrazano runs a fast race and he is a racing god. We all know Pletcher's KY Derby record, his group of 3 y/o colts are always hyped up.

1)ITSMYLUCKYDAY 2)FLASHBACK 3)VIOLENCE 4)Orb 5)Fortify 6)Shanghai Bobby 7)Goldencents 8)Frac Daddy 9)Pure Fun 10)Revolutionary 11)Hear the Ghost 12)Elmutahid

My top 3 horses are stand outs, the rest are only completing a watch list.

15 Feb 2013 8:54 AM
Coldfacts

Mr. SOS,

“But how many 2yr old champions have won in the last 20 yrs? one? two?.”

It is suggested that you know the answers to the questions you pose or your follow up statements will be very embarrassing.

The following Champion 2YOs have won the Derby: Riva Ridge, Secretariat, Foolish Pleasure, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Specular Bid and Street Sense.

“ why is this? You breeding people always think it’s the distance thing.....the reason is, racing super sharp, for that long, is very, very, rare”

If champion 2YOs have won the Derby seven times how rare can it be? Champion 2YOs Chiefs Crown, Easy Goer, Forty Niner and Timber Country  finished either second or third in their respective Derbies. Are you attributing the losses to a lack of sharpness?

The Kentucky Derby is the most difficult race to win and your flawed theory is not where near the reason for the losses of champion 2Yos that make the gate.

If you meant to specify Breeders Cu Juvenile winners instead of champion 2Yos, then then here are some colt facts.

2YOs that participate in the Breeder Cup are in most case the best available for the race unless some connections choose not to start their top colts. How many 2YOs that have exited the BCJ have won the Derby? While only one BCJ winner has won the Derby, four losers have worn the roses i.e. Spend A Buck,  Alysheba, Sea Hero and  Mine That Bird.

Are you suggesting that only winners of the BCJ are incapable of staying sharp until the Derby?

Chief’s Crown and Timber Country won the BCJ and finished 3rd in their respective Derbies. What percentage of sharpness did they lose heading into the Derby?  

If you are going to blow you own horn you should at least know the tune.

NB: I have repeatedly requested that you do not refer to the supporter of these blogs as 'You People'

15 Feb 2013 12:07 PM
zarvona

 Hmmm …the 7 fur. Gr. II San Vincente; SA--which sends no points to the winner toward the Kty. Derby, much like the Gr. II 7 fur. Hutcheson GP sent none??, strange exclusions, regarding which maybe they should run both during the lame ass 2nd week in Feb. next year and in future years and allow them some POINTS toward the Derby, huh?, anyway,--sees these 5 Derby Nominees among the 6 entrants with each looking to see where he might rate this time of year and adding some experience to each... with Baffert entering half the field ,--3 of 6 !!!--

Baffert’s 3 in ...

 "Shakin It. Up", --rated a bit lower but within the distance acceptable variance range I have attributed to “Violence”--my standard and my own scale--...though this isn't a distance attempt...-- and whom Blood Horse says ‘he the likely to be favorite off of his 2 yr. old efforts’... then Baffert also throws in the highly awaited…

"Belvin", --although with he rated well below my standard for one’s ability to get 1 ¼ --... and finally there is also the much long anticipated   1- 1-0-0 …

 "War Academy" --rated way over “Violence”,--my standard gauge,--and being one I have been awaiting for, for quite a while... and then there is the highly toted …

 "Treasury Bill" --rated right up there along side of “Violence”--… but woohoa ...look out for this other one who is rated for the Belmont and caught a sloppy track his last time out at Belmont in fact, in …

 "Mudflats", --whom after some look up research rates out higher--for me--than any Colt that I have looked into yet thus far this year, thusly being where if he doesn’t qualify for the Kty. Derby, keep him in mind come Belmont time whether he can handle this crowd at 7 fur. or not…

.

 So, it will be interesting to see where this interesting collection finishes up after 7 furs. However, any of these higher rated distance boyz that finish anywhere near the top within say chasing some respectable 1:22.50 over the synthetic surface will make their additions to the Derby chest that much more interesting, thusly making that "Pool #1 “Field” bet also look more enticing. And, this all so, with many having said that there was a ‘weak crop coming out of CAL. for the Derby this year’. Looking pretty deep right here !!! and that all so, especially with Baffert’s likely additions also coming out of the El Camino Real and that also excluding “Flashback”. Thusly, I for one can’t wait for the rest of the ‘left coast’ preps or the SA Derby !!!

  However, this race should be way too difficult for one to figure out how wager on it,--warning do not base waging on my evaluation of a horses accessed by me breeding rating suggesting he is bred to go longer--but taking notes from this one might be valuable. However, don’t overlook this race when looking for that elusive DERBY or even that down the road Belmont winner. And again, remember being bred for ‘stamina’ and ‘distance’ has nothing to do with running some great one turn or no turn 7 fur. sprint well, where straight speed and ability kill !! and will produce a winner from any well bred ‘miler’ type. It just means, that if there is a runner who can handle good competition such as this and is one rated to go longer, he is thusly one to keep an eye on. And, these “teenagers” all still have plenty of time to grow before May the 4th no matter where they finish up in this race that will again earn them NO points toward obtaining a gate slot in the Kty. Derby.

15 Feb 2013 12:15 PM
It aint easy being good!

KT VET your post confuses me. So lets say that both Oxbow and itsmyluckyday run one more race before the derby and take a 8 week layoff they have no chance??? I will always remember what Draynay used to say the clock doesnt lie. Who had the fastest prep last year on dirt??? yep it was Ill have another guess who won the derby sometimes it is that simple!

15 Feb 2013 12:21 PM
Johnny

Ky Vet:

IHA was sharp but not really sharp huh?

So please tell me the line in the sand that makes you sharp or really sharp?

If he did not get hurt he may of well won the Triple crown we will never know.

Did 50-1 Giacomo or Mine that Bird come in sharp? Were they really the best horses in the race?

That day they were.

I say they run the race for a reason and that is the beauty of betting this race we are all after the same thing the BIG SCORE.

If we hit we are the best handicapper in the world for that day.

We walk around the house with our chest puffed out crowing about how I new it.

My biggest hit?

I played a up and down Exacta on Pioneer of the Nile it was a nice place finish for him.

Good luck to all and may everyone's angle work for them,especially mine.

15 Feb 2013 12:36 PM
Ranagulzion

KY Vet,

I appreciate yur explanation for discounting the chances of Itsmyluckyday and Oxbow but I think that you're underestimating the respective trainers of these colts.  You correctly highlighted the training feat of Doug O'Neil with IHA last year but why overlook the savy of Plesa and D. Wayne Lukas?

Forbidden Apple,

I can tell you right now that you're cluless regarding Verazzano.  This colt is a potential monster ...you will change your tune after his facile victory in the Tampa Bay Derby. The only question about him is the 10 Furlongs, based on pedigree.  I'm sticking to Overanalyze, Violence and Itsmyluckydy as my top three Derby pick for the time being but all of the above are under threat from the super classy Verazzano.

15 Feb 2013 8:14 PM
KY VET

Johnny......i used IHA as an example, of a horse that was ALMOST an exception...the diif. was, he wasnt running too sharp. His beyers were not TOO good....AND the layoff was Brilliant move by the trainer. AND....those GREAT races put stress on the horse.......That is why horses get injured......You dont wanna squeeze the lemon dry too early!       Trust me...........

15 Feb 2013 8:35 PM
KY VET

It aint easy....they better do that, its their only chance....btw, 8 weeks off for top class horses, is not too long.....for derby, 6 is perfect....

15 Feb 2013 9:52 PM
KY VET

HI RANAG.....i dont think its about being a great trainer or not....those horses improved too much......MOTHER NATURE will take these horses down. If there is a fault, its in racing in jan. or getting them too good too early....thats not a bad thing, the derby is not everything.....when a horse gets as sharp as itsyourluckyday, you cant take him down, then bring him back up.....ranag, the best thing about verrazzano, is hes going to the tampa bay derby....semi weak prep race....what you want, is another easy win....not all out, not too sharp......just fast enough to win.....................

16 Feb 2013 12:12 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

"This colt is a potential monster"

The last monster that was sent to the Tampa Bay Derby was War Pass and he bit the dust.

You classified Uncle Mo, Quality Road, Union Rags  as monsters. You need to insert the word potential in front monster. All good horses look like monsters when not against their peers.

I will take the maiden Footbridge over your monster any day.  

16 Feb 2013 1:39 AM
Coldfacts

Forbidden Apple

“Who did Bernardini ever beat”

He defeated the fields that were assembled in the Preakness, Traverse, Jim Dandy, and Jockey Club Gold Cup. It took an older horse that won six consecutive G1s and unbeaten in the US to lower his colors in the Breeder Cup Classic. Bernardini’s rider was motionless in the saddle en route to recoding times of 2:01 for the Traverse and Jockey Club Gold. This colt could have easily gone below 2:00 in each race. Many top rated horse achieve these times while fully extended.

He was rate Co-World Champion 3YO. This rating was achieved based on the nature of his performances and not based on those he defeated.

16 Feb 2013 9:30 AM
El Kabong

Good Girl Rachel,

Hang tough, your little lady is going to need you more than anything! She'll pull through everyone, she always does:)

Going with Manando today at GG. He's ready to bust out big.

Like Sky Commander to hang close enough to a contentious front end today and get them. Think Offlee Fast, Duke of M, and Edge of R will zoom off to lead. One may last but that is when Sky C digs in and steals this one. Using Taking by Storm, Finn and Capo to run behind speed running second.

4 with 1,2,3  with 567 with 567. Tri and super.

16 Feb 2013 12:42 PM
Johnny

It aint easy Draynay use to say alot,LOL.

KyVet Was Black Caviar sharp for all her wins?

16 Feb 2013 12:50 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Vetky your posts pinpoint you as a member of the independents, possibly a left winger who will vote nay on the Apollo Creed.This board is chock full of way right conservative Apolonians.Going forward we will win.

16 Feb 2013 1:38 PM
Forbidden Apple

Both Bernardini and Tapit had weak racing careers in my opinion. As a stud, Tapit is far more accomplished and brilliant. Their racing careers are not as important now that they receive the best mares. I see big slow grinder types coming from Bernardini, who now stands for $150,000.

Ranagulzion,

You are clueless every year when it comes to picking winners. Do you remember calling Uncle Mo and Eskendereya monsters that were better than Secretariat! And then El Padrino and Algorithms, on and on. Verrazano is a nice horse, let me know when he wins a Grade I.

17 Feb 2013 9:52 AM
Pedigree Ann

Santa Anita is running an n1x conditions race with G2 status and $90K to the winner today. Six winners of only their maiden races are entered. Three of them have tried stakes company before and only one was placed.

Are there not enough n1x races for trainers to find out how their colts stack up against winners? Do they have to pitchfork them directly into stakes races? Or is that only a preference?

17 Feb 2013 11:05 AM
KY VET

Johnny......the reason black caviar and zenyatta can put those long steaks together, is the fact that they dont have to go all out.....they are much the best, and NOT all out........

17 Feb 2013 1:23 PM
Ranagulzion

Forbidden Apple,

When attempting to malign a fellow blog poster such as I, use quotes if you want to be credible.  I guarantee that in all the archives of my submissions to the Bloodhorse blogs you'll never find me saying that Uncle Mo or Eskendereya or any horse for that matter, was better than Secretariat.  As for El Padrino and Algorithm both are AP Indy line colts and everyone who reads these blogs knows my reservation about these horses as 3YOs. Try being honest and truthful in your counter arguments ...that way you'll earn some respect.

17 Feb 2013 5:52 PM
Slew

For a lack of races, my list remains unchanged.

Violence, Transparent, Vyjack, Itsmyluckyday, Shanghai Bobby,  Verrazano, Revolutionary, and Tiz the Truth. Oh, and Goldencents. I forgot Valid.

By next week, I'm certain everyone will have something to say about Dice Flavor.  Beat some decent colts, easily.  But, tapeta?  We'll see.

Medaglia d'Oro colt looking for distance...Violence has Gone West on his dam side...and that's what counts.  

The Southwest is tomorrow; I'm certain another colt will spark more conversation.

And Royal Delta was as regal as ever, winning again.  Now, off to Dubai.

I don't like to see a horse that has to be pedaled all through a race to get 10f...but..that's exactly how Mike Smith got Drosselmeyer to the wire ahead of Game On Dude in the BC Classic.  It happens.  Some horses need to be constantly ridden, but I still don't care to see it; I think it's very exhausting.

Congrats to Black Caviar, again.  She may be a sprinter, but she has a very long, efficient stride. It's such a please to watch her move. Perhaps that's the edge that puts her on top of the world, even when she's "down under". (How do they ever find horses to run against her?)

And finally, I'm sending prayers to the beautiful Rachel Alexandra.  I feel so terrible for her, and I hope she pulls through stronger than ever.

Now, I'm off to watch the San

vincente.

17 Feb 2013 6:33 PM
Coldfacts

Forbidden Apple,

“I see big slow grinder types coming from Bernardini, who now stands for $150,000.”

Below are some of the big slow grinder types that have represented Bernardini.

To Honor and Serve: PA Derby NST - 1:47.34; Cigar Mile 1:33.89

Stay Thirsty: Cigar Mile - 1:35.47 Defeating BC Sprinter Groupie Doll

Wilbourne:  ALWOC;  1 70yrd - 1:39.89; MSW 6 1/2F 1:13.95

Buffum: Bold Ruler 7F -1:21.68; ALWOC 8F 1:34.34

Algorithms:; MSW , 5F- 57.55;  ALWOC 6 1/2F 1:15.51

Demonic: MSW, 7F – 1:22 and a bit

Consortium: ALWOC 6F - 1:09.78; MSW 6 1/2F - 1:17.10

The above cold facts do not support your forecast regarding the offspring’s Bernardini.

18 Feb 2013 10:46 AM
zarvona

  Actually wondering who even reads these late posts to the blogs anyway, but I will keep on posting.  

  Ok, regarding a quick take on last weekends wrap up, “Capo Bastone” and “Offlee Fast” dueling in the slop continually only a nose a part for nearly ¼ furlong was interesting to watch. “Shakin It Up”; “Treasury Bill”; and even “War Academy”--in only his 2nd start all in at around the discussed 1:22.50 figure--with “Shakin’” finishing for the win at 1:22.48,--all remain high on the my watch list.--And, I still can’t toss out “Mudflats” just yet on his breeding alone.--Another Pletcher trainee running in the slop at Gulf Stream Park ‘wire to wire’ in a 1 1/8 Msw, “Abraham”, additionally moves up higher on my watch list. And, I still have no take on “Manado” or “Carving” who are rapidly now falling, and where it appears like “Carving” may be little more than just a good “Allowance” horse at this point and not a real Derby threat, and re “Manado”, I just have no idea,--with so many tries with the horse and so little to show from one ‘bred foreva’.

  However, the run that impressed me the most this past weekend was turned in by a little 3 yr. old filly out in Santa Anita, “Judy in Disguise”,-- … “with glasses”, ...“come to me tonight…come to me tonight”...--where if I got the fractions right,--not sure that I did,--she ran her first six of six-and-a-half furlongs in 1:06.19 !!! finishing off her last panel in 6:06 for a 6 ½ fur. run in the $75 Sweet Life Stakes coming in at 1:12.25, which is just a plain awesome a number. Where I rather somewhat quickly jotted down these fractions thereafter,--where they don’t leave the screen up long enough to do better,--being at: … :21.28;   :43.32;  1:06.19;  1:12.25 !!!, which to me, is just simply amazing!!! So, she gets rather rapidly added to my filly’s Oak's watch list.

    But oh boy, here we go, the real major preps to the real majors, “the Fla. Derby”; “the Wood Mem.”, and “the SA Derby”, and, etc., all start this coming week with first-off, the reappearance of “Violence”, whom--I imagine many that didn’t follow the 2 year old trail accept on maybe the Breeder’s Cup days--likely many haven’t even ever seen this colt yet. But, it was his debut maiden win over “Titletown Five”,--I believe,--up at Sar. last summer that had this horse immediately garner my attention as one to keep a watch on then. And, in fact, after looking up his breeding way back then, I decided that he would be my horse for the year that I would gauge all other newcomers against breeding-wise in a comparison for distance. And although, many following have graded out higher for ‘distance’, his is my model standard.--And again, its not all in breeding, but much is, where a horse still needs natural speed and intelligence, proper training, much luck, and a kiss from the Gods.--But, I had decided way back then that others would have to match or be near to, or would have to be rated higher than he was, being where that he was the horse that I was going to gauge my distance comparison around right then and there, and that all so, being, to compare the rest that would come out following him against, and especially being where that that maiden run was made at 7 fur. and not at some 5 ½ fur. or such of a lesser distance. He has impressed speed-wise and winning every time out thereafter also increasing his distance and Graded moves upward, although in my eyes somewhat oddly having circumvented the BC Juv. races. And, secretly he was my early favorite. In fact, I was mildly disappointed when both Steve and Watchmaker at DRF made him their #1 pre-season picks even over the likes of “Shanghai Bobby” and “Itsmyluckyday” after the Holy Bull back nearer the turn of the year. But, yes I have been awaiting his next run. And, even though to be made against a larger field with some real stiff competition lining up--and all so, after a bit of a short winter layoff,--I will make the effort to go see him and can’t wait to see him again hit the dirt. Although, he will likely come out at near un-betable low odds, where I may just watch and just be happy with the 13-1 I got him at in Pool #1. He has to this point simply been a pleasure to watch and to route for, and having been the first added to my watch last year, he remains a high favorite for me with his Kentucky Derby hopes.  

18 Feb 2013 10:59 AM
Coldfacts

Forbidden Apple,

"Both Bernardini and Tapit had weak racing careers in my opinion.”

There is no point comparing the careers  of Bernardini and Tapit. To determine if Bernardini’s career was weak, I have outlines a comparison of the 3YO careers of  the respected Madaglia d’Oro and Bernardini.  

Madaglia d’Oro: 8th in Preakness, 2nd Belmont; 1st Jim Dandy, 1st Travers, 2nd Breeders Cup Classic.

Bernardini: 1st Preakness, 1st Jim Dandy, 1st Travers, 1st JCGP; 2nd Breeders Cup Classic.

Bernardini was never of the worse than second in his grade stakes career. Madaglia d’Oro was of the board in the Preakness. The great Invasor defeated Bernardini  in the BCC while Madaglia d’Oro was defeated by Volponi who never recoded a G1 victory before or subsequent.

I could have done a comparison with several other horses but the above example should be sufficient.

It is unlikely that Madaglia d’Oro’s 3YO career would be considered weak. It therefore stands to reason that the cold facts do not support your above opinion.

18 Feb 2013 11:25 AM
Coldfacts

“The reason black caviar and zenyatta can put those long steaks together, is the fact that they don’t have to go all out"

What a bundle of malarkey!

There have been many horses that have had long winning streaks with some being undefeated that were fully extended in many their races

The likes of Peppers Pride and Personal Ensign are examples of mares that had to run hard on many occasions.

Couldn’t it just be that Black Caviar and Zenyatta are exceptional horses?

18 Feb 2013 12:25 PM
Forbidden Apple

Ranagulzion,

Since when do I need your respect in my life? You are simply irritated because I am not over the moon whith Verrazano. And you threw the first punch, I am only responding to your comments. You are in denial and not being honest here. You claimed both Eskendereya(2010) and Uncle Mo(2011) to be Triple Crown winners in February. And both times I called you out when you made these claims. And both times you were miserably wrong. I am 100% sure that someone else on here besides me remembers your bold statements (Derby Dozen blogs and Shandler blogs). I don't have the time or the interest in trying to find old blogs. Just man up and stand behind your comments, everyone makes mistakes. This game is based on opinion when handicapping a race. Even last year I said that Gemologist was the best Pletcher horse, and you did not agree. This year I am on record saying that Violence is the most dangerous Pletcher horse. Why do you care if I do not fancy Verrazano? Please stop letting your love affir with every Pletcher horse cloud your memory.

18 Feb 2013 1:10 PM
Rinzler

I'm only looking at two for now.

The one Steve is looking at: Balance The Books, but like he said, only if he can take to dirt.

The other is Uncaptured.

It seems pretty wide open, but these are the two I am willing to take a stand with right now.

18 Feb 2013 3:58 PM
Forbidden Apple

Cold Facts,

Thanks for the research, but I stand by my opinion and I'm allowed to have one. Just look back at the 2nd and 3rd place finishers behind Bernardini in his wins. You cherry picked a few of his offspring. To Honor and Serve was a nice horse, I'll agree with that. Are you really impressed by Stay thirsty winning in 1:35? Consortium, come on man he is an average horse at the Big A. His potential at 2 and 3 turned into a bust. Tapit is the superior sire in my opinion.

18 Feb 2013 8:25 PM

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