Derby Dozen - March 10, 2014 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

1

California Chrome Art Sherman

Lucky Pulpit—Love the Chase, by Not For Love

What the heck. I just wish I had the chutzpah to put him up here last week after stating back on Feb. 3 he was the most impressive 3-year-old I’d seen this year. The simple fact is, this horse has run three flawless and brilliant races in a row and just keeps getting better. In the San Felipe, he wanted out of that gate so badly he got a bit antsy in there, and then broke like one of the Quarter-Horses he’s been stabled with at Los Alamitos. He has a great mind and has proven he doesn’t need the lead or even want it. He was just so much the best and Espinoza had his hands well down on the horse’s neck as he merely cruised through fractions of :45 2/5 and 1:09 2/5 before running everyone the ground. As I stated earlier, his lead change is so smooth, you can’t even see him switch, and, down the backstretch and the homestretch, he didn’t deviate an inch off his path. You cannot ask a horse to run any straighter, and he keeps his legs under him perfectly with no wasted action. Then he coasts home from the sixteenth pole to the wire under no urging and still gets a 107 Beyer. This is a horse who paired up “1”s on Thoro-Graph, and that was going into this race. So he has no concept of what a bounce is. In summation, this horse does everything like an exceptional horse and I see no one who deserves the top spot more than him. (See pedigree comments on him in Knocking on the Door).

2

Cairo Prince Kiaran McLaughlin

Pioneerof the Nile—Holy Bubbette, by Holy Bull

Sometimes, you can stand tall and gain in stature simply by not moving at all. It’s looking more and more like McLaughlin did the right thing by passing the Fountain of Youth (gr. II) and letting everyone knock each other out. He’s now inherited the role of Derby favorite on most polls, basically by taking it easy and turning in a series of half-mile breezes, with one sharp five-eighths in :59 4/5 tossed in. During that time we’ve lost Top Billing, Shared Belief, Havana, Indianapolis, and the promising Hartford and Mosler from the Derby trail, not to mention setbacks to Honor Code, Bayern, and Mexikoma, who have to play catch-up and have only one race to secure enough points to assure getting in the Derby. And what Cairo Prince has in his favor is that the Florida Derby seems to be setting up perfectly for his high cruising speed and his ability to sit off any kind of pace and pounce on the opposition. His pedigree doesn’t exactly shout 1 1/4 miles, but if he’s good enough I don’t think it’s going to hinder his chances to go that far under the right setup.

3

Honor Code Shug McGaughey

A.P. Indy—Serena’s Cat, by Storm Cat

I have mixed feelings about his change of plans to run in a March 12 allowance race. On one hand, I can certainly understand why McGaughey would prefer not having to ship to Oaklawn. On the other hand, I’m concerned about him getting enough out of the race to have him battle tested come the first Saturday in May. He’s already had a physical setback, which you never want to see, and is fortunate to still have sufficient time and racing to be ready for a top effort in the Derby, especially with the foundation he built at 2. But do the brilliantly fast colt, Social Inclusion, with only one six-furlong maiden romp in his career, or the hard-knocking allowance horse We’re All Set have the class to even make Honor Code work up a sweat? McGaughey said he’d love a nice easy race in case he decides to run him back in the Florida Derby. But he’ll have to have a real stiff test in the Florida Derby to toughen him up for such an arduous test on May 3. He did have an excellent half-mile sharpener in :47 4/5 Sunday in case he needs to chase Social Inclusion, so perhaps this race will turn out well in the long run.

4

Candy Boy John Sadler

Candy Ride—She’s an Eleven, by In Excess

It’s a good thing he’s unable to watch TV, because the San Felipe certainly wouldn’t have done much to boost his confidence for his upcoming clash with California Chrome in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I). He continued his steady works with a 5-furlong drill in 1:01 1/5. Like Cairo Prince and Honor Code and so many others, he’ll have only two Kentucky Derby preps, but at least he has a strong 2-year-old foundation. Sorry to say, at this point, I just don’t see much competition for the big two in California other than perhaps Chitu, who ran lights out against Candy Boy in the Lewis. I can’t see Baffert subjecting the lightly raced Bayern to a clash against these two and then trying to make the Kentucky Derby off only three career starts. So, right now, the pickins are pretty slim out there.

5

Intense Holiday Todd Pletcher

Harlan’s Holiday—Intensify, by Unbridled’s Song

Keeping sharp, with a half-mile breeze in :47 4/5, third fastest of 71 works at the distance. He just keeps improving. The Louisiana Derby is still three weeks away, but as of now, it looks like he’ll have Albano to catch again, and we’ll see if Hoppertunity returns. Many of the precocious 2-year-olds and fast early 3-year-olds are not around when they run for the roses, and that is why you have to appreciate a horse like this and the patient way he’s been handled by Todd Pletcher and owner Starlight Racing. Each race has been a progression, with the colt taking baby steps forward until he was ready to hit the big important races, and now he has catapulted himself onto the list of leading Derby contenders. If his one race, one step forward pattern continues, he should be ready for a peak effort on Derby Day, especially with the foundation he’s built along the way.

6

Tapiture Steve Asmussen

Tapit—Free Spin, by Olympio

This is the kind of horse you like more and more the closer we get to the big final preps. He’s sort of like the Arkansas version of Cairo Prince, with his good tactical speed and ability to sit behind a solid pace and then kick in and open up on his opponents. He’s also made an excellent transition from 2 and 3. As an old schooler, I like the fact that the Winchell family bred him, his dam, and his granddam, as well as his broodmare sire. There is something refreshing about continuity these days, when homebreds are becoming rarer by the year. He should get a good test in the Rebel, facing the likes of Strong Mandate, Ride On Curlin, and Kobe’s Back, even though he soundly defeated the first two in the Southwest Stakes. Both should be tougher this time. Also, Asmussen is up for the Hall of Fame for the first time this year, and let’s remember that Wayne Lukas, Neil Drysdale, and Gary Stevens all won the Kentucky Derby the same year they were elected to the Hall of Fame.

7

Samraat Rick Violette

Noble Causeway—Little Indian Girl, by Indian Charlie

The bottom line with this guy is, he is undefeated in five career starts, he’s fast, he’s resilient, and he has the heart of a lion. Not only has he come out on top in two gut-wrenching battles with a very fast horse, he’s given away weight and he’s made five plane flights this year totaling 5,500 miles. One of the reasons he’s been able to handle everything thrown at him is, he’s such a laid-back colt, when he was growing up on the farm his nickname was Cool Hand Luke. Not only can he beat you in an all out street fight, he can thrash lesser opponents, as indicated by his average winning margin of 8 1/4 lengths in his three races against New York-breds. It was pretty amazing to see him engaged in such a grueling stretch duel and not being touched with the whip or even having a cross thrown on him; just a straight hand ride. So far, there hasn’t been anything he can’t do. His outcross pedigree is a little too abstruse to evaluate as far as going 1 1/4 miles, so we’ll just have to play that by ear.

8

General a Rod Mike Maker

Roman Ruler—Dynamite Eyes, by Dynaformer

The more you watch his races the more impressive he becomes. He handles dirt and Polytrack and is a very efficient mover on both surfaces. He’s had four different jockeys in four races and has run huge for all of them. He can battle on the lead or make a huge run from far back, as he did in his career debut, when he turned in a sweeping six-wide move on the turn, going from six lengths back to two in front in a quarter mile. He’s shown a lot more early lick since the addition of blinkers after his maiden score, in which he was very green, ducking in at the three-sixteenths pole. In his battle with Wildcat Red in the Fountain of Youth, there were five lead changes, and he was beaten only by the bob of a head. You’ll find classic winners or dams of classic winners from four different countries in his female family alone.

9

Uncle Sigh Gary Contessa

Indian Charlie—Cradlesong, by Pine Bluff

It’s amazing to find two New York-breds as brilliant as Samraat and Uncle Sigh developing such s heated rivalry on the Derby trail and dominating the New York-based horses. This colt has had the disadvantage of breaking inside Samraat in both the Withers and Gotham, and took all the worst of it in the Gotham, chasing a very fast and tough In Trouble, with Samraat breathing down his neck. Then, he was in so tight, getting bumped from both sides, in the stretch, Corey Nakatani couldn’t go to the whip even if he wanted to. I don’t think we’ve seen anything near the best of him. We should see that when he can get a clear outside trip and rate off the pace. This colt actually has a stronger distance pedigree than Samraat, at least on the dam side. His broodmare sire, Pine Bluff, won the Preakness and was narrowly beaten by A.P. Indy in the Belmont. His female family includes names such as A.P. Indy. Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Fappiano, and he traces to The Minstrel, winner of the English and Irish Derbys.

10

Kobe's Back John Sadler

Flatter—Well, by Well Decorated

Normally, I would be reluctant to include a horse who has not won beyond seven furlongs at this point, but his San Vicente (gr. II) victory was so impressive visually, I have to feel he will not have a problem going two turns, especially with his strong tail-female family. His acceleration on the far turn and in the stretch, and the ease with which he drew away to win by 5 1/4 lengths in 1:21 4/5 suggests he is getting really good right now. His 10th-place finish in the CashCall Futurity was a throw out, as he ducked way to the outside from the 12 post, was eight-wide into the first turn and then had to check sharply down the backstretch, dropping out of contention. I’m not crazy about broodmare sire Well Decorated for distance, but his maternal great-grandsire and great-great-grandsire both won the Travers, with the latter, Temperence Hill, adding the Belmont Stakes, Jockey Club Gold Cup, and Suburban Handicap. And that tail-female family traces to Nodouble, one of the toughest horses I ever saw, who won four major stakes at 1 1/4 miles -- Santa Anita Handicap, Brooklyn Handicap, and Hawthorne Gold Cup twice -- and also captured the Met Mile, Arkansas Derby, Californian, and upset Damascus in the Michigan Mile and an Eighth as a 3-year-old.

11

Tamarando Jerry Hollendorfer

Bertrando—Tamarack Bay, by Dehere

It’s time he was rewarded for all his accomplishments. He’s finished in the money in his last nine starts, seven of them stakes, following a fourth in a maiden race. He’s won or place in three grade I’s and has won or placed at six different distances on dirt and synthetic. The only three horses to finish ahead of him since last November have been Shared Belief, California Chrome, and Candy Boy. In 10 career starts he has closed strongly in every one of them. After the series of setbacks to his stablemate, champion Shared Belief, Hollendorfer certainly deserves a shot to get back to Churchill Downs with a live Derby threat. Could he be an Iron Leige to Shared Belief’s Gen. Duke or a Swale to Shared Belief’s Devil’s Bag? One thing, we do know, he is a horse to be respected and admired for his consistency and versatility and for trying hard every time he steps in the gate. He turned in a solid six-furlong work in 1:14 flat at Golden Gate.

12

Strong Mandate D. Wayne Lukas

Tiznow—Clear Mandate, by Deputy Minister

The only reason I put him back in the Top 12 is because he’s running next week in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and he’s done enough in his career to warrant another shot. But I did not like the way he switched leads five times in the stretch and was all over the racetrack, trying to get out the whole way. Perhaps he just got tired after losing ground early and needed the race. I’ll give him that one lapse, as he did seem to find his best stride in the closing yards, finishing six lengths ahead of third-place finisher Ride On Curlin. He also worked a slow five furlongs in 1:03 3/5. Strong Mandate’s best races have been when he’s stalking the pace, where he can grind his opponents down as opposed to dropping back early and trying to catch them. His Champagne is still a puzzler, even with being taken out of his running style. But his third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile still I believe was the best losing effort in the entire Breeders’ Cup. Until this colt can develop some consistency, both in his performance and professionalism, he will remain a bit of an enigma.