Derby Dozen - February 10, 2015 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

1

Texas Red Keith Desormeaux

Afleet Alex—Ramatuelle, by Jeune Homme

(Late news) Foot abscess will keep him out of Risen Star and he will now point for the Santa Anita Derby with the Arkansas Derby as an alternative. Desormeaux said starting off at 7f just seemed right based on past experience, and he’s always been a believer in conditioning horses through training and racing, which supersedes winning percentage. He also remembers Unbridled beating Housebuster going 7f and doing it on class (in 1:21 4/5 in his first start after winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic). He said that race has always been etched in his mind, and that Texas Red had the build and personality to handle it.

2

American Pharoah Bob Baffert

Pioneerof the Nile—Littleprincessemma, by Yankee Gentleman

Baffert said the champ likely will make his 3-year-old debut in the March 14 Rebel Stakes. He turned in his second 3f work, going in :36 2/5 and galloping out a half-mile. As with the other horses making just two starts, there is no room for error and everything will have to go perfectly. We also have to see if he can win from off the pace, so there are still plenty of questions. He is only up this high because he may be freaky talented. His tail-female line is all Fred Hooper breeding and that is unlike any other family. It is an entity unto itself, and while many Hooper horses have been brilliant, they haven’t established any line of note.

3

Upstart Rick Violette

Flatter—Party Silks, by Touch Gold

Returned to the work tab with a half-mile breeze in :49 2/5 at Palm Meadows. No more revelations regarding this talented colt. We are all well aware of what he is and what he’s capable of achieving. He has all the tools and appears to be much farther advanced than the others in Florida, as he heads for the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Violette just has to maintain his high level and still have him peaking on Derby Day. The Holy Bull gives him an excellent foundation of speed to go along with his big performances last year, so even a slight regression in the Fountain of Youth would be nothing to be concerned about. It’s after that race that the big buildup begins and he’s almost there already.

4

Dortmund Bob Baffert

Big Brown —Our Josephina, by Tale of the Cat

He looked for sure like he was beaten turning for home and through the upper stretch in the Robert Lewis, as he appeared to have nothing more to give, but he somehow battled back while being pinned down close to the rail under a furious ride from Garcia. The gap of 21 lengths to third tells you how good he and Firing Line are. Final time of 1:42 1/5 actually compares quite favorably with Shared Belief’s time in the San Antonio, and although they came home in a so-so :31 2/5 for the final five-sixteenths, they ran the three-quarters two full seconds faster than the San Antonio. So did Dortmund really get re-energized or did he just stay on off that fast three-quarters better than Firing Line? You had to love how perfectly straight he ran so close to the rail. He also had a bit of a rough start, getting bumped from both sides. He’s now beaten Firing Line winning from the far outside over a tight Quarter Horse track and from the inside, coming back from certain defeat, and he’s won decisively twice and he’s won in photos twice, over three different racetracks on both ends of the country. A big, long-striding colt, he is learning and maturing with every race and has proven to be as versatile a young colt as we’ve seen in a while. He does, however, have a lot of speed in his pedigree, and although Big Brown won the Derby, he was by a sprinting sire, but was a total freak.

5

Carpe Diem Todd Pletcher

Giant's Causeway—Rebridled Dreams, by Unbridled’s Song

His 5f breeze in :59 2/5 indicates he should be razor-sharp in his debut in the Tampa Bay Derby. Pletcher has six of the 23 horses on the Derby Future Wager, in addition to Withers winner Far From Over. Those seven horses have made a grand total of 15 career starts. That’s basically two starts per horse. Welcome to the new Derby trail. Each year, Pletcher dominates the Derby trail with his army of lightly raced horses, so we’ll see how it plays out come Derby time. This colt has a ton of class and a good foundation under him and shouldn’t need much to get him Derby tested. But like many of the others, he can’t afford to have any setbacks, even a minor one.

6

Firing Line Simon Callaghan

Line of David—Sister Girl Blues, by Hold For Gold

Gary Stevens says he moved too soon on him and thought for sure he had Dortmund beat, and was surprised to see the winner come back and beat him. He did break a little slowly, giving up some position early. It’s hard to fault his performance, but still not sure how far he wants to go. Again, did Dortmund actually battle back or did Firing Line start coming back to him at the end after three-quarters in a testing 1:10 3/5? As well as he ran, you never want to see a major Derby hopeful allow a horse to come back at him to the extent that Dortmund did. He has a number of classy 1 1/8-mile horses throughout his pedigree, but there are a number of speed influences, from Lion Heart, Tale of the Cat, Capote, Red Ransom, and Conquistador Cielo. He is from a strong tail-female line tracing to the super mare Kamar, and his sire and dam did win the Arkansas Derby and Hollywood Oaks, so there is plenty of class in his pedigree. Stevens said he’ll ride him differently next time and we’ll see if he can move forward off this effort, stretching out another sixteenth of a mile.

7

Far From Over Todd Pletcher

Blame—Alchemist, by A.P. Indy

This may seem to be an overreaction to his remarkable effort in the Withers Stakes, but this regally bred ridgling has accomplished so much in two career starts he probably has the experience of a seasoned battle-tested horse. He not only overcame a bad stumble at the start, he beat two very good horses. What he has going for him is having two two-turn races, one at 2, and he’s shown both times what a warrior he is. That’s a lot of quick maturing for a May 9 foal. And he still has a lot to learn. In his maiden race, he hopped at the start, battled head and head with a 9-5 shot, alternating back and forth for the lead, put him away and looked ripe for the kill turning for home. But he found more when the 8-5 favorite eyeballed him and refused to let him by, despite jumping back to his left lead after shying from a cocked whip and bouncing off the rail. In the Withers, he dropped 11 lengths back after his stumble, charged up the inside, came between horses, and then outside the two leaders in the stretch, flying home in a brilliant :23 4/5 and :06 1/5, despite jumping back to his left lead. His pedigree is so star-studded, we’ll save that for next week. All in all, this is a racehorse who has proven so much in two starts you have to admire the fact that he wins in spite of his immaturity.

8

Lord Nelson Bob Baffert

Pulpit—African Jade, by Seeking the Gold

Many are dismissing him as a one-turn horse, but his two two-turn defeats are more than excusable. How can anyone hold it against him for finishing fourth in a grade I stakes, 1 3/4 lengths behind Texas Red, coming off only one 5f maiden race on Poyltrack? And he had a horrible trip in the Ky. Jockey Club, stumbling at the start and having to race wide the entire way, while being forced 7-wide at the head of the stretch. He may not look like your typical American stayer, but he is more typical of a classic Argentine horse and he is such an efficient mover there is no reason why he won’t stay going long. With his classic Argentine breeding through eight generations, we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and wait to see what he does when he stretches back out again, likely in the San Felipe.

9

Imperia Kiaran McLaughlin

Medaglia D'Oro—Cocoa Beach, by Doneraile Court

This had become more of an Imperia—Frosted report, as it’s difficult not lumping both these colts together. But it’s time for Imperia to stand on his own now that Frosted has earned his own place. Imperia looks to have a bit more upside at this point, and a little more turn of foot and should come out running in the Risen Star Stakes, where he likely will face Texas Red and we’ll see who handles that long stretch the best. Imperia still is not being asked for speed in the morning, breezing 5f in 1:02 2/5, but that was over a track that was dead following the break. He’s made great strides since his career debut, going straight into the grade III Pilgrim Stakes and winning by a length with a powerful burst of speed in the stretch. Although his narrow defeat in the Kentucky Jockey Club in his dirt debut looks strong on paper, he will have to improve off that effort and show the closing power he did in the Pilgrim. There is still plenty of room for improvement and his debut should be very revealing.

10

Ocean Knight Kiaran McLaughlin

Curlin—Ocean Goddess, by Stormy Atlantic

He is becoming a buzz horse, as everyone is raving about his Sam F. Davis win, and rightly so, as he proved a lot in that race. The Sam F. Davis is an important prep in that it allows a horse to return for the Tampa Derby and then have his big final Derby prep four weeks later, so he is on a good schedule for a lightly raced horse that should have him in peak condition on Derby Day, especially if he continues to move forward at the rate he has this winter. His strength is his great mind. Nothing bothers him and he just goes out there and gets the job done, whether it’s at 6f at Aqueduct or 1 1/16 miles at Tampa. His female family is rather mundane, but does trace to Native Dancer, through Dancer’s Image, as well as Tom Fool and Gallant Man.

11

Ocho Ocho Ocho James Cassidy

Street Sense– Winner, by Horse Chestnut

After a sharp half-mile work in :47 3/5, he came back with an easy half in :49 4/5 as he prepares for the San Felipe Stakes. There is a lot to like about this colt, especially his versatility and his ability to use his speed at any point in the race, as he showed in the Delta Jackpot. He can sprint with the best of them, battling on the lead in a blazing :43 4/5 or go two turns, and he’s shown the ability to make several moves and adjust quickly to what others do. I like the way he moves and the way he carries himself, and am expecting a big performance first time out. And remember, he has as strong a pedigree top and bottom as you’ll see on the Derby trail.

12

Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin

Tapit—Fast Cookie, by Deputy Minister

He’s earned his own placing after a razor-sharp half-mile breeze in :47 2/5 that was described as “breathtaking.” You always have to love it when they come out of a big race and work lights out. He came out of the Holy Bull as if he hadn’t run and was yelling for his dinner the next day. To show how strong a work this was, it was the fastest of 63 works at the distance. He had everything against him in the Holy Bull, from a severe bumping incident at the start, in which he got creamed from the outside from a chain reaction of bumps, the pedestrian pace (:48 4/5 and 1:12 2/5), to the short stretch that didn’t do him any favors, playing right into the hands of Upstart, who stalked that slow pace throughout. He has to get rid of his bridesmaid role, finishing second in four of his five starts, but we should see a different horse in the Fountain of Youth. If he continues to move forward and be right there in every race, he could prove to be a Giacomo type, who keeps making baby strides and then puts it all together on Derby Day.