Derby Dozen - February 9, 2016 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

1

Mohaymen Kiaran McLaughlin

Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union

Shadwell manager Rick Nichols said his performance in the Holy Bull sent chills up and down his back. When you see perfection and executed with such ease it does get the emotions flowing. Even though he ran his first half in a soft :49 1/5, when you can run your second half in :46 3/5 and final sixteenth in :06 flat and do it easily, that is enough to suggest there could be something special here. He does have the powerful closing punch you want to see and can use it from just off the pace, much like Barbaro did in his Derby victory. Add to that the physical prowess, a great mind and professional demeanor, and the ability to run fast without exerting himself, and you have the prototype everyone looks for in a Derby horse. There is a reason why he sold for $2.2 million. As for his pedigree, there is a good mixture of speed and distance blood, and his sire and broodmare sire both sired Belmont Stakes winners (Tonalist, by Tapit and Union Rags, by Dixie Union), and Dixie Union also sired Grasshopper, who was narrowly beaten by Street Sense in the Travers Stakes. Justwhistledixie was a multiple stakes winner and grade I-placed (2nd in the Acorn), who also produced Mohaymen’s half-brother, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner New Year’s Day, who “only” sold for $425,000 as a yearling.

2

Mor Spirit Bob Baffert 

Eskendereya—Im a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union

The more I watch him the more he reminds me of another ridgling, A.P. Indy, the way he runs with his head way down and uses his long stride to methodically wear down his opponents, while expending as little energy as possible. Like A.P. Indy, he’s not going to ‘Wow’ you; he just knows how to beat you. In the Robert Lewis, he put in those :24 quarters and then wore down the two horses in front of him, coming home fast and doing it in precision-like manner. The main question with him is who he’s been beating. We saw what Toews on Ice did in the Smarty Jones, and the two horses he tracked in perfect position in the Lewis had never been farther than 6 1/2 furlongs. But I am going to deduce from what I saw that both Uncle Lino and I Will Score are very talented horses and should have been tough, considering the slow fractions they set. His Brisnet and Beyer speed figures were OK, but nothing to get excited over, but it’s at least been a slow and steady climb since the Kentucky Jockey Club. When you have a stride like his and you run with your head that far down, it’s never going to look like you’re running fast. The bottom line is he’s progressing the right way, he appears to still have a lot left in the tank, and he knows how to win without taking too much out of himself. He has the perfect jockey, and his trainer isn’t too shabby when it comes to training a horse for the Derby.

3

Brody's Cause Dale Romans

Giant’s Causeway —Sweet Breanna, by Sahm

After returning with a razor-sharp :47 2/5 breeze on Jan. 18, Romans has been slowing the colt down with each subsequent work. Following his :49 2/5 breeze last week, he breezed him 5f in 1:02 4/5 this week. We still have to wait until March 12 for his much-anticipated debut in the Tampa Bay Derby, so there are still plenty of works on his schedule and there is no need for speed right now, especially considering speed is not his game. With such a late starting date, I would rather have this colt at No. 2 or 3 and be able to keep him there without running and eventually moving him up than starting him at No. 1 and having to lower him as horses like Mohaymen and Mor Spirit assert themselves in competition. Tampa Bay does tend to get a horse fit, so it should set him up well for the Blue Grass Stakes. There isn’t going to be a lot to say about him each week that hasn’t been said already, except that he did possess the most impressive turn of foot and stretch kick we saw all year and all he has to do is duplicate that in his two preps to be considered a major threat in the Kentucky Derby. Right now, there seems to be a heckuva Derby gods battle brewing between Romans and Kiaran McLaughlin.

4

Greenpointcrusader Dominick Schettino

Bernardini—Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance

I liked his Holy Bull effort, but as someone with a keen sense of history and logic, I was surprised to read that he is scheduled to have only one more prep, the Louisiana Derby. Timing-wise, he will be attempting something that hasn’t been done and that always creates unwanted questions. And it’s those questions that prompted his being dropped two spots. What he will be attempting is to win the Derby off two preps with a two-month layoff between races and then 6 weeks to the big race. Each has been accomplished individually, but never both together. Animal Kingdom won the Derby off 6 weeks, but his two preps were only 23 days apart. Big Brown won off 5 weeks, but had 24 days between preps, and Mine That Bird won off 5 weeks, with one month between preps. Super Saver and Street Sense had one month between preps and 3 weeks to the Derby. And the one horse who had a two-month layoff between preps, I’ll Have Another, had 4 weeks to the Derby. Greenpointcrusader will have only one race in 14 weeks leading into the Derby, and because he ran counter productive to his  best style, I feel he will need two races to re-establish his running style and show he wants to go 1 1/4 miles, especially considering two of his brothers were distance limited. Also, no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby straight from the Louisiana Derby. Of the only two winners of both races, Grindstone ran back in the Arkansas Derby and Black Gold ran in the Derby Trial. Can it be done? Anything is possible. I still like this colt and haven’t lost faith in him, but now historical trends have slipped into the equation, creating questions that won’t be answered until the Derby.

5

Nyquist Doug O'Neill

Uncle Mo—Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry

The slow works are over and it’s time to get serious and sharpen that edge for the 7f San Vicente Stakes, where he’ll take on Exaggerator and other fast horses. He accomplished that with a brilliant :59 1/5 drill in company, out 6f in 1:13 flat, second fastest of 48 works at the distance. O’Neill has done a super job training him for this race. Based on his ability to beat you sprinting or two turns, he’s going to be awfully tough to handle, and because it’s a sprint, he doesn’t have to worry about doing too much. He’ll do what he needs to and that will set him up for his return to two turns. I realize, at No. 5, I’m probably underselling this colt for all he’s accomplished, and that has nothing to do with his ability. Like Greenpointcrusader, it’s all about his pre-Derby schedule and having only one sprint race and one 1 1/8-mile race in the Florida Derby and then five weeks to the Kentucky Derby. Now, if that should change, then he very well could move up near the top of the list, depending on how he runs on Monday. If there is one thing he does have going for him it is that O’Neill has been successful not going by the book and he knows how to get a horse to a big race as well as anyone. Getting the lightly raced I’ll Have Another to win the Derby, and from the 19 post, was as brilliant a training job as you’ll see.

6

Exaggerator Keith Desormeaux

Curlin—Dawn Raid, by Vindication

It will be interesting to see how he fares against Nyquist in the San Vicente, a race neither has to win. I love the way Desormeaux trains his 3-year-olds and his old-school philosophy of starting out sprinting. As he said, “It seems like a great way to get their minds ready again for competitive racing. Maybe it doesn't take as much out of them physically as a two-turn race; it sharpens them up and puts a little speed into them that you can't get in the mornings. It's a great way to wake them up for the upcoming journey.” That is a great quote. I believe that thinking would have made Texas Red very competitive in the Triple Crown last year and will make Exaggerator very competitive on this year’s Triple Crown trail. After several long works to put some bottom in him, Desormeaux is getting him sharp, working him 5f in :58 2/5 on Feb. 2 followed by a :47 2/5 drill. He’s also had sharp works at 6 furlongs and 7 furlongs, which is another training method you don’t see that much anymore. Desormeaux has him both sharp and fit, and has put plenty of bottom in him. Remember, this colt has shown he can handle any distance and any racetrack, whether it’s in New York, California, Kentucky, or Louisiana. I moved him up a spot because he’s running this weekend, and I’ll anticipate a good performance, even if he gets beat by Nyquist, which is totally possible.

7

Airoforce Mark Casse

Colonel John—Chocolate Pop, by Cuvee

If this colt’s works reflect how he’s going to handle a fast dirt track, no one should have any concerns. Following his bullet 5f drill in 1:00 1/5 last week, he came right back with another scintillating 5f work in :59 3/5 breezing, second fastest of 31 works at the distance. He looks ready for a big debut, which likely will come in the Risen Stakes Feb 20. Looking at what Mor Spirit has done in his last two starts, the way he roared by him in the stretch in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes was extremely impressive, even if it was in the slop. And having Mo Tom come back and win the LeComte, drawing away in dominant fashion, just added to the quality of the field he beat and his performance. The Risen Star looks to be shaping up as a tough race, so we’ll get a good idea how he’s made the transition from 2 to 3.

8

Smokey Image Carla Gaines

Southern Image—Special Smoke, by Free House

Came out of his impressive romp in the Cal Cup Derby in excellent shape, according to Gaines, and will now point for the San Felipe for his first try against open company. He’s not the smoothest moving horse, but he looks to still be a work in progress, and he should gain a lot of experience from his first two-turn attempt, where he appeared to settle into a good groove in the final furlong and finished the way you want to see a horse finish. One thing we do know about him is that he is a runner, at least in state-bred company, but there is no reason think he won’t be just as formidable against better class horses. He just needs to iron out some of the kinks and use his natural talent to its full extent. As for pedigree, his sire is from the potent Halo—Hail to Reason line, out of a mare from the Pleasant Colony—His Majesty—Ribot line, while his dam is by Santa Anita Handicap, Pacific Classic, and Santa Anita Derby winner Free House, out of a mare from the Smart Strike and Nureyev lines. So forget the fact that he’s a Cal-bred.

9

Awesome Speed Alan Goldberg

Awesome Again—Speedy Escape, by Aptitude

If you want to know why Airoforce didn’t get a bullet work for his :59 3/5 breeze, it’s because of this colt’s :59 flat breeze, fastest of 31 works at the distance. There is no doubt he is aptly named; now we just have to find out how awesome he is against top-class competition going two turns. We know he has blazing sprint speed and can carry it a mile and rate off horses. Most of all, we know how inundated his pedigree is with stamina, which makes him all the more intriguing as he moves forward on the Derby trail. In his first three generations, he has two Breeders’ Cup Classic winners and a Jockey Club Gold Cup winner, and his tail-female family traces to the great stamina influence Herbager. His broodmare sire, Aptitude won the JC Gold Cup by 10 lengths and finished second in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, and Aptitude’s dam, Dokki, is a half-sister to Belmont Stakes winner Coastal and two-time JC Gold Cup and Woodward winner and Hall of Famer Slew ‘o Gold. So, for this colt to have such blazing speed makes one wonder just how good he may be.

10

Mo Tom Tom Amoss

Uncle Mo—Caroni, by Rubiano

Breezed 5f in 1:01 for the Risen Star Stakes, in which he will try to make it two-for-two on the Fair Grounds Derby trail. He’s already defeated the hard-knocking Tom’s Ready on two occasions and missed catching Mor Spirit by a head for second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Horses taking the full Fair Grounds series of preps to the Kentucky Derby have not fared very well at Churchill over the years, which frankly is baffling, considering it caters to stretch runners and has a surface fairly similar to Churchill’s. This colt runs contrary to his pedigree on paper, but remember, Uncle Mo is out of an Arch mare, and broodmare sire Rubiano, although a late-closing sprinter, is by Fappiano, out of a Nijinsky mare, so there are a lot of contrary aspects to his pedigree.

11

Rafting Graham Motion

Tapit—Paiota Falls, by Kris S.

I have him on the list because I’m expecting a big effort from him in Saturday’s Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay, for which he continues to work brilliantly, breezing 5f in 1:00 3/5 at Palm Meadows. This follows a pair of 6f breezes in 1:13 and 1:13 1/5. He’s not nominated to the Triple Crown, but Motion believes if a horse really belongs in the Derby he doesn’t mind putting up the extra money in March, and he wants to see how he runs in the Sam Davis first. Two races back, I wouldn’t have paid a dollar to nominate him, but that race was such a disaster from start to finish, and he received such a bizarre ride on top of that, he deserved another chance. And sure enough he bounced back with an impressive and professional score in the one-mile Smooth Air Stakes, defeating Fellowship, who came back to finish an excellent third to Mohaymen in the Holy Bull Stakes. This colt is training super and has a magnificent pedigree, and we’ll see soon enough if he belongs on the Derby trail

12

Cherry Wine Dale Romans

Paddy O’Prado—C.S. Royce, by Unbridled’s Song

The big question with him is the competition he’s been humiliating. One gauge is Southside Warrior, who he defeated by 8 1/4 lengths in a Jan. 9 allowance race. Southside Warrior came back and finished a fast-closing second to the highly touted Shagaf on Jan. 29, so at least that’s something to go by. With some big races coming up before the Fountain of Youth, he probably won’t be able to stay on here much longer. He almost came off this week to make room for Danzing Candy, but we’ll give it another week or so to let the latter’s recent allowance victory sink in a little more. If Mohaymen shows up in the Fountain of Youth as expected, we’ll definitely learn a lot more about this horse. At this point let’s just say he’s an intriguing prospect who could be any kind.