Derby Dozen - April 11, 2017 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

1

Always Dreaming Todd Pletcher

Bodemeister—Above Perfection, by In Excess

There is very little separating him and Irish War Cry in natural ability and running style, and both should have no problem with the 1 1/4 miles. The Florida Derby now appears to be the best of the preps, mainly because he easily handled the No. 3 ranked horse Gunnevera and was actually increasing his lead at the wire, while getting stronger the farther he went. Also, there is no telling how good this colt could be, having won three straight races and dominating his opponents in each one. He certainly has all the tools – sprint and tactical speed, class, professionalism, consistency, instant acceleration, tremendous balance and action, long graceful strides, and is extremely light on his feet. Like Irish War Cry, he has a commanding presence about him, and it should be interesting to see how tactics develop with these two exceptional colts in the Kentucky Derby. I believe they key to his success was Pletcher running him in that allowance race instead of throwing him in against graded stakes winners in the Fountain of Youth Stakes the same day. This was an excellent confidence builder and gave him a much-needed mile and an eighth race under him. It also allowed John Velazquez to experiment a little by turning him off and on at will and seeing what kind of gears he has, and then letting him gallop out a full mile and a quarter in about 2:07. So he was able to slow a proven fast horse down to a crawl, then use his turn of foot in the stretch, and finally put a lot of bottom in him. All of that will pay dividends on the first Saturday in May. As mentioned earlier, it wasn’t the margin of the Florida Derby that was impressive or even the time, as much as it was watching him run through the wire, as they say, getting stronger at the end.

2

Irish War Cry Graham Motion

Curlin—Irish Sovereign, by Polish Numbers

Never before on the Derby trail have I seen a colt turn in two such powerful performances with such a dismal effort in between. That will forever remain a mystery, but the important thing is that he is back, and he did it the right way, rating beautifully in fourth and pouncing on Battalion Runner and running him into the ground. He is almost on even terms with Always Dreaming, but if you want to look for one thing separating them it is his :39 final three-eighths in the Wood. But to be fair, it was a slow track, and he did get a 101 Beyer figure, his second one of the year. He broke sharply from the far outside post in the Wood Memorial, and was four-wide going into the first turn. Unlike his second and fourth starts, he was able to relax and wait for the command by his rider. This was more like the Irish War Cry we saw in his sensational maiden victory at Laurel, which was the last time he rated kindly off the lead. He was content to sit patiently behind Battalion Runner down the backstretch, and when Rajiv Maragh asked him at the three-eighths pole, he shifted into drive and quickly headed Battalion Runner by the five-sixteenths pole. A confident Maragh looked back under his right arm at the head of the stretch, shook the reins at him, and he began to draw clear inside the eighth pole, increasing his lead with every stride. At the finish, he was striding out beautifully, looking much like he did in the Holy Bull Stakes and making the Fountain of Youth seem like nothing more than a bad dream. A baffled Graham Motion has had plenty of time to try to solve the puzzle and he did come up with a change of equipment, putting a figure-8 bridle on the colt for more control. For those interested, a figure-8 bridle is what John Nerud put on Dr. Fager during his 4-year-old campaign that helped turn him from a great horse into a legend. In his first start with the new bridle, the good doctor rated beautifully in the Suburban Handicap under 132 pounds, defeating arch rival Damascus and equaling the track record. So, for Motion, perhaps this was the move that unleashed a giant.

3

Gunnevera Antonio Sano

Dialed In—Unbridled Rage, by Unbridled

He has been getting mixed reviews since his well-beaten third in the Florida Derby. Was he struggling to make up ground on Always Dreaming or was he running strongly enough to snatch third when he looked to be out of contention for a placing? The truth is, everything was against him that day, and there is no reason to believe he won’t bounce back with the five weeks off and, with a more contentious pace in the Kentucky Derby, once again show that rapid-fire turn of foot we saw in the Delta Jackpot and Fountain of Youth Stakes. As mentioned last week, he did come home his final five-eighths in a sensational :58 4/5, which shows you how near impossible it was for him to win. He did not go into the Florida Derby at his best, having apparently lost some weight after two big efforts at Gulfstream and having raced steadily since last June, with only a brief respite between 2 and 3. If you just watch him in the Florida Derby and not use Always Dreaming as a barometer, he is running strongly with good extension to his stride and did very well just to run down Impressive Edge and Three Rules for third, while missing second by 1 1/2 lengths. With him, it all depends on how he thrives over the next few weeks and how he trains at Churchill Downs. Yes, he will need a contentious pace in the Derby, but so does every come from behind horse, just as the speed horses need a slow pace. If it’s meant to be it will be, and he will be flying in the stretch, at a much better price than one would have thought a couple of weeks ago.

4

McCraken Ian Wilkes

Ghostzapper—Ivory Empress, by by Seeking the Gold

Let’s start by asking this question: who would you pick as the big potential overlay in the Kentucky Derby? My answer right now would be McCraken, who has now gone from favorite to being a pretty enticing price, and his defeat in the Blue Grass Stakes to me was a near perfect setup effort for the Derby, which has major bounce back written all over it. Although I have him ranked No. 4, watch out for my selection/wagering column on May 5 after seeing how trains at Churchill Downs. Yes, one would have hoped he’d be closing faster in the Blue Grass against a maiden, having missed the Tampa Bay Derby, he needed a race like this more than an easy victory. This was a disastrous trip from the start and I can’t emphasize more how much he got out of it. First off, he broke outward, bumping with J Boys Echo, and being as fresh as he was, he was way too aggressive going into the first turn, dragging Brian Hernandez up into third between horses, and still was too keen entering the backstretch. Sitting in an uncustomary spot right behind the two leaders, he had Hernandez pulling back on the reins. Then Practical Joke on his outside made a bold early move and he began to lose his position, as J Boys Echo moved up alongside him on the inside. He now had only one horse, Tapwrit, beat, and when Tapwrit moved up on his outside, he once again was stuck between horses. When Tapwrit started to make his move, Hernandez finally pulled the trigger and McCraken put it in another gear, as he has in all in his races, and closed in on the leaders, pulling to within a half-length of Practical Joke and 1 1/2 lengths of the leading Irap. Turning for home, his hind end bounced off Practical Joke’s hind end twice. Hernandez threw a couple of crosses, hit him twice left-handed, and then hand-rode him to the wire. He had little left in the final furlong and ran evenly the rest of the way, apparently a tired horse running on a slow tiring racetrack that several horses, including Tapwrit, seemingly didn’t handle. To me, this race will give him a ton of bottom, and it exposed him to much-needed adversity for the first time. Finally, before winning the Kentucky Derby for Wilkes’ old boss Carl Nafzger, Unbridled finished third in the Blue Grass Stakes, beaten the same 3 3/4 lengths. Like Unbridled, expect to see a different horse in the Derby.

5

Girvin Joe Sharp

Tale of Ekati—Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon

A lot is being made of his 91 Beyer speed figure and that he wasn’t that impressive beating a recent maiden winner with only two career starts by 1 1/4 lengths, but there is so much more to this horse than speed figures and how far he wins by. The bottom line is he knows how to win and does what he has to. I’ve been saying all along he is one of the most determined young horses I’ve seen in a long time, and he wins despite overcoming some minor flaws, such as his inconsistency with lead changes. But again, it doesn’t matter. He has run only four times in his career and learns a little more each time. Yes, he jumped back to his left lead in the final sixteenth of the Louisiana Derby, but the Fair Grounds stretch can seem endless, especially to a young inexperienced horse, and his lead changes, which, by the way, don’t seem to affect his performance, will improve with experience. He does have to overcome history, having only the four career starts, but he has come such a long way in a short time, and he seems to have crammed a great deal into those four starts. What is important is that he’s the only 3-year-old to have won back-to-back graded stakes, he always has himself in a good position, and uses his long strides to suit his grinding style of running. He runs down the stretch with his ears pinned, and as mentioned before, he keeps them pinned even after the race is over and does not take kindly to horses trying to pass him past the wire. He is in great hands with Joe Sharp, and literally with assistant Rosie Napravnik, who works him. Granted, he hasn’t been facing the best 3-year-olds and needs to step it up against tougher competition, but no one at Fair Grounds has been able to stop him yet.

6

Classic Empire Mark Casse

Pioneerof the Nile—Sambuca Classica, by Cat Thief

As he makes his way back up toward the top where he began, I keep thinking of the old Abbott and Costello routine, “Slowly I turned ... step by step ... inch by inch ...” For the closing act of his wild and wacky Derby journey, all he needs now is a big effort in the Arkansas Derby to continue his step by step, inch by inch turnaround. The way he has been training and behaving since arriving at Winding Oaks Farm, all we can do is hope it continues through Saturday and then the following three weeks leading up to the Derby, culminating with an uneventful experience in the Derby Day preliminaries. With Gunnevera, McCraken, Gormley, and Practical Joke all representing last year’s 2-year-old crop in fine fashion the past two weeks, it would be a crowning touch for the champ to finish off the prep season with a big effort at Oaklawn Park. As frustrating as he has been all year, you can’t say he hasn’t kept things interesting. From a physical standpoint, he is in the same boat as McCraken in some ways, having missed a race and being forced to bounce back from minor issues and needing to get a lot out of his final prep. You have to admit, it would be great if last year’s 2-year-old champion and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner returned to his winning form and put some normalcy back into the 3-year-old picture.

7

Practical Joke Chad Brown 

Into Mischief—Halo Humor, by Distorted Humor

Good news and bad news. The good news is that he showed in the Blue Grass Stakes he can get a mile and an eighth without losing ground in the final furlong. The bad news is that he had the entire length of the stretch to get by a maiden coming home in :13 and wasn’t able to do it. But, remember, he, too had only one start and could simply have been a bit short. In the past, I have seen a number of Derby winners run an almost identical race as Practical Joke in his final Derby prep, such as Super Saver, beaten a neck by a 17-1 shot in the Arkansas Derby; Grindstone, beaten a neck by an 11-1 shot in the Arkansas Derby; Funny Cide, beaten a half-length in the Wood Memorial; Silver Charm, beaten a head in the Santa Anita Derby; Street Sense, beaten a nose in the Blue Grass Stakes; Lil E. Tee, beaten a neck in the Arkansas Derby. Although he didn’t win the Derby, Sham ran the exact same race in the Wood Memorial, failing to get past Angle Light before turning in arguably the greatest second-place finish in Derby history. In addition, Monarchos, Real Quiet, and Go For Gin all finished second in their final Derby prep, simply getting outrun. But, again, skeptics will point out this was against a maiden, and there is no escaping that, although he was a maiden with some pretty good stakes credentials, including a second in a grade I stakes against Mastery. It is possible that Practical Joke is distance limited, but it must be said, he looked magnificent before the race, an imposing, well-muscled colt. He broke sharply from the outside post and rushed up three across the track into the first turn, and surprisingly made a bold early move down the backstretch. To his credit, he was able to settle again, two lengths behind the leaders before closing in to challenge Irap at the top of the stretch and was under steady left-handed whipping down the stretch. After the way he won the Hopeful and Champagne I thought for sure he would wear down Irap, but he just couldn’t get by him. Whatever you think of him he definitely should get a lot out of this race and will be a presence in the Derby. Whether it’s enough to win is another matter.

8

Gormley John Shirreffs

Malibu Moon—Race to Urga, by Bernstein

So, just where does California stand on this year’s Derby trail? On one hand you have the Santa Anita Derby winner run 1 1/8 miles in 1:51.16 and come home his last three-eighths in a sluggish :40 2/5, earning a meager 88 Beyer. But on the other hand you have a California-based maiden who was beaten handily by the Santa Anita Derby third-place finisher win the Blue Grass Stakes. The in and out trend of Gormley’s career continued right on schedule Saturday. He wins the grade I FrontRunner Stakes last fall by three lengths, then gets beats more than 16 lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, then wins the Sham Stakes in a gutsy effort, then gets beat almost 10 lengths in the San Felipe Stakes, then wins the Santa Anita Derby. So, who is Gormley and can he break this pattern by running another bang-up race in the Kentucky Derby? I don’t even pretend to be able to grasp the significance of the extremely slow final time and closing fractions of the Santa Anita Derby, except to say it does send up warning flares regarding the crop of Southern California 3-year-olds. But they did send two maidens back east to run monster races in graded stakes, so who knows? We do know what Gormley is capable on his best day, turning in one of the fastest Thoro-Graph numbers of the year in the Sham Stakes, and you have to be encouraged the way he rated more than 5 lengths off a pretty hot opening three-quarters. But that’s when the race fell apart, as the field spread out across the track after turning into the stretch and staggered home, with the first 5 horses finishing within two lengths of each other. And his stablemate, Royal Mo, who defeated Irap by 3 1/2 lengths in the Robert Lewis Stakes, also ran big, racing three abreast in :22 3/5, :46 2/5, and 1:10 4/5 and getting beat only one length, so Shirreffs could send a pair to Louisville, if Royal Mo has enough points.

9

Malagacy Todd Pletcher

Shackleford—Classiest Gem, by Dehere

He tuned up for the Arkansas Derby with a 5-furlong breeze in 1:01 2/5. He pretty much faces the same kind of task as did his stablemate One Liner before he exited the Derby trail, relying mainly on his overall talent and brilliance. With One Liner out, he has a huge shot to win the Arkansas Derby. But I must remind everyone of Pletcher’s comments after his second start, stating he most likely is best around one turn, having run two spectacular races to begin his career going 5 1/2 and 6 1/2 furlongs. Many fast sprinters will be able to stretch out to two turns in their first attempt, but it catches up with them after that. Whether he falls into that category I have no way of knowing, because of the way he settled so nicely off the pace-setting Uncontested in the Rebel. I can see Malagacy charging to the lead and setting the pace or taking back if someone is intent on going. A victory doesn’t mean it will move him forward as a potential Kentucky Derby winner. It’s all about having the experience and toughness to handle a 20-horse field going a mile and a quarter, and he still has those questions to answer.

10

Royal Mo John Shirreffs

Uncle Mo—Royal Irish Lass, by Saint Ballado

If you like Gormley even a little you have to like his stablemate as well. Royal Mo is the one who ran a sneaky good race in the Santa Anita Derby, breaking from the 13 post and being rushed up into contention, battling three wide through quick fractions and remaining three abreast the whole way. Despite the fast pace, he held on tenaciously to finish third, beaten one length. He is a big, handsome, muscular colt who is a strong galloper and should appreciate the extra quarter mile at Churchill Downs, where he can use those big strides at one long steady pace. And he should only keep getting better with racing. Hey, he did beat Irap easily in the Robert Lewis Stakes, which didn’t mean much before, but does now. He is another who had to rebound off a clunker, finishing up the track in the Rebel Stakes, as did American Anthem. Yes, I know the Santa Anita Derby was agonizingly slow, and no one is saying he is going to win the Derby, but at No. 10, he could certainly make his presence felt, and no one is better than John Shirreffs at getting a horse to peak for a particular race. Everyone said Giacomo was way too slow to win the Derby and beat the likes of Bellamy Road, Afleet Alex, Bandini, Flower Alley and the others with their gaudy Beyer numbers, but Shirreffs didn’t focus on winning any of the preps as long as he had him peaking on the first Saturday in May. The question is, can Uncle Mo have back-to-back Derby winners? This colt is a complete outcross in his first five generations, with a good deal of European blood in his tail-female family.

11

Hence Steve Asmussen

Street Boss—Floating Island, by A.P. Indy

These last two spots are so up for grabs, with Tapwrit, Battalion Runner, Cloud Computing, Battle of Midway, and J Boys Echo still viable Derby horses. But Irap’s shocking victory in the Blue Grass Stakes certainly boosted the reputation of Hence, who defeated Irap by 8 1/2 lengths in the Sunland Derby. I became a big fan of Hence’s watching his astounding maiden victory, in which he put on a remarkable display of athleticism and balance to avoid crashing into the rail, and still came back to win. I also was impressed with the way he rebounded off his Southwest Stakes defeat to win the Sunland Derby so impressively. And he did it the right way, coming from far back and blowing his field away to win by nearly 4 lengths in a very solid 1:48 flat, defeating the undefeated local hero Conquest Mo Money, as well as the aforementioned Irap. Granted, this was far from a talented and accomplished field, but I can’t help but remember what Firing Line did in the Kentucky Derby after trouncing his foes at Sunland. And Mine That Bird didn’t do too shabbily at Churchill Downs. A Derby winner can come from anywhere these days and we really don’t know just how good this colt is or is getting.

12

Irap Doug O’Neill

Tiznow—Silken Cat, by Storm Cat

It was easy to see that one coming. Yeah, sure. That certainly threw a major monkey wrench into an already befuddling Derby picture. But give credit where it is due, and Irap ran his eyeballs out and refused to be passed. After all, maiden or not, he did run second to Mastery and Royal Mo in graded stakes. Several weeks ago, I wrote about the two most shocking Derby winners, Mine That Bird and Canonero, both of whom came to Kentucky from high altitude cities – Sunland Park and Caracas, Venezuela. Racing at Sunland Park’s 3,800-foot altitude one time may or may not be beneficial, but in Irap’s case, he raced there twice, and who knows if two races at that altitude can, even in a small way, affect a horse’s performance coming down to a 400-foot altitude. It is quite possible I am reaching for the proverbial straws to come up with an explanation why Irap ran so well, and even if true, it wouldn’t really carry over to the Derby in four more weeks. The bottom line is it’s horse racing and longshots win every day, and he has fared well against top quality horses and apparently has overcome some foot issues with the help of his blacksmith. Whatever the reason, it is time re-evaluate some of these horses and try to unlock the mystery of the 2017 Kentucky Derby.