Derby Dozen - February 20, 2018 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

KNOCKING AT THE DOOR

I have to admit, this is the most perplexing bunch of 3-year-olds I can remember at this point. Many horses look either too slow or too inconsistent, and most of them are a complete stab in the dark. But the best definitely is yet to come, and we should see a much brighter picture after the Fountain of Youth and San Felipe when the stars finally come out. It also seems as if the horses who have been the most impressive have been those who have gotten too late a start to get really excited over as true Derby contenders. How unusual has this group been? I have a horse ranked No. 1 who has won one race in his life.

Because there are so many questions concerning the Risen Star, and because of the severe rail bias and quicksand-like surface in the Southwest, there seems to be three choices regarding this weekend’s stakes in the context of the Top 12. You can either frazzle your brain trying to decipher both races, make believe they never happened and forgive the favorites, or simply look elsewhere. I have chosen to give the slightest edge to the Risen Star, even with its Derby history.

Starting with the Risen Star, runner-up SNAPPER SINCLAIR ran an excellent race, coming home in :23 4/5 and :06 1/5, running the 1 1/16 miles in a sharp 1:42 4/5, and getting beat the scantest of noses. The first two simply never came back to the field after running one-two the entire race. On the other hand their half-mile and three-quarter fractions were a full second slower than the Rachel Alexandra Stakes for 3-year-old fillies and the final time of that race was only two-fifths slower than the Risen Star at 1:43 1/5. And the Mineshaft Handicap for older horses was run in 1:42 1/5, and a 3-year-old allowance race on Monday was run in 1:42 2/5, so it appears as if the track was fairly lively all weekend. Bravazo did return to his form in the Breeders’ Futurity, in which he finished second to Free Drop Billy, so we know he is legitimate, and he’s bred to run all day, unlike Snapper Sinclair, who is by City Zip, out of a Yes It’s True mare, so that is a speed-oriented pedigree top and bottom. Of Course, Bravazo did throw in a real clunker in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. As for third-place finisher, NOBLE INDY, you can’t fault his race, although he did have a ground-saving trip, having the rail open up for him in the upper stretch and running evenly the rest of the way without threatening the top two. But it wasn’t the smoothest of trips, as Instilled Regard moved up down the backstretch to keep him trapped inside and behind horses when he wanted to run, and he did lose some position. And he was only making his third career start, which means we have another who is on target for only four career starts if he runs in the Louisiana Derby. As mentioned earlier, he was coming off a huge Thoro-Graph number that puts him right there with the fastest 3-year-olds in the country. We’ll see if he regressed off that number, which would be understandable. The bottom line is that I am going to ponder all this about him a little longer and see if any changes are warranted in the next week or two. I just wasn’t blown away by any of these horses. But he definitely has a right to improve, and Bravazo and Mr. Lukas have to be taken seriously. We’ll see what next week brings. The big disappointment was the uninspiring 7th-place finish by PRINCIPE GUILHERME, who looked to be something special following a pair of runaway victories to start off his career.

Moving ahead to the Southwest Stakes, the winner, MY BOY JACK, who did an amazing impression of Exaggerator romping through the mud, was coming off a well-beaten third to McKinzie in the Sham Stakes, but that was a race in which somebody had to finish third. There really wasn’t much behind the winner. And My Boy Jack is a talented grass horse, with five straight grass races before the Lewis, and we all know that grass horses usually run huge on sloppy or muddy dirt tracks. And My Boy Jack rode a golden rail the entire race and was set up by a third and fourth quarter in :25 4/5 and :26 over a track Kent Desormeaux said was like peanut butter. I’m not saying this son of Creative Cause is not a legitimate Derby contender. I just need to see more considering all he had in his favor in the Southwest and with so many good horses not handling the track at all. Runner-up COMBATANT, ran a big race having to take the overland route, while the winner skipped through on the rail, but he has now run three consecutive seconds and needs to show just a little more in the final furlong. He is another who should keep improving.

The horse I like the most coming out of this race was third-place finisher SPORTING CHANCE, who did ride the rail most of the way, but swung out for the stretch run and once again pulled one of his antics in the stretch, shying from Mourinho drifting out and then ducking back in abruptly when he nearly ran into Combatant on his outside. He jumped back to his left lead, but then switched back to his right lead on his own. I thought he had no shot to collar 6-5 MOURINHO for third, but somehow he did get up for the show spot. All in all, this was a good return having been out since he beat Free Drop Billy in the Hopeful Stakes, but I want to see more professionalism in the stretch. There is no doubt the talent is there. Mourinho broke a step slowly and was rushed up to take the lead, then unlike the Smarty Jones, found himself in a battle up front with ROAD TO DAMASCUS, who was tracked by EZMOSH. Those two would finish last and next-to-last, while Mourinho was just nipped for third by Sporting Chance, who sat right behind the leaders the whole way. Like many others this weekend, he deserves another chance, especially with the adverse track conditions, but it’s difficult to keep him in the Top 12 until he learns to rate off the pace. We’ll see if Baffert sends him back to Oaklawn or looks elsewhere.

I was anxious to see NEW YORK CENTRAL take on Baffert shipper ZULFIKHAR, as well as  DREAM BABY DREAM, TRANSGRESS, and TIZ OUR TURN in a tough allowance optional claimer the race after the Southwest Stakes. In mid-stretch, it looked like Transgress had New York Central beat, but the latter came back and nipped him on the wire. I have always liked New York Central, especially his race against Higher Power last time out, but you can’t know for sure whether his coming back in the stretch was 100 percent gameness or whether he was aided by being down on the rail, which definitely looked like the golden path. It sure was in the Southwest Stakes and Razorback Handicap. Dream Baby Dream ran another strong race, closing fast to finish third, beaten 2 1/2 lengths. But he’s only won one of his seven starts, and his pedigree suggests classic distances will not be his strength, although he surely runs like he wants to go on.

Even though Todd Pletcher's top horses this year were late developing, we all knew what was to come following their maiden, and in some cases, allowance victories. Not only have we seen the emergence of Vino Rosso, Marconi, and Noble Indy as serious Derby contenders in their stakes debut, but like last year with Always Dreaming prior to the Florida Derby, we saw a serious horse come out of an allowance race when MAGNUM MOON captured a mile and 40-yard event at Tampa Bay on Thursday. Now, we know it is a far cry from an allowance race at Tampa against only 5 opponents to graded stakes company, but you have to get excited over the way he did it. One phrase we use often after a victory is “it was a workout for him.” In most cases that is an exaggeration. Well, in this case, the best thing you can say about Magnum Moon's performance is that it looked exactly like a workout, with jockey Luis Saez sitting chilly behind two “workmates,” and then cruising by them without ever as much as moving his hands, and Magnum Moon’s ears up the entire stretch run. And despite that, he missed the track record by only 11 one-hundredths of a second, while defeating VOUCH, who was good enough to finish third in the Remsen Stakes. But the runner-up, stablemate HYNDFORD, had just broken his maiden in a $50,000 claiming race.  He will need to have two more starts before the Derby and I don’t know just how Pletcher would accomplish that without running him in three weeks somewhere along the line. And even if he does he will have to get a lot more out of those next two races than he did in last week’s race. And of course he has the good old Apollo curse to overcome as well, having never run at 2. So while he has a definite hill to climb, so far so good. He appears to be very light on his feet, is extremely responsive, and has a great mind. I just wish he had one more start or had this race a week or two ago, because he was the most impressive horse I saw all weekend…at least in a two-turn race.

Pletcher has moved his $2 million baby MARCONI from New York to sunny Florida following his third in the Withers Stakes, and the son of Tapit had his first work at Palm Beach Downs, breezing a half in :49 3/5. I went against my rules by putting a maiden winner in the Top 12 opening week, and although others have forced him off, I have not given up on this colt by any means. He just has a lot of learning and maturing to do. We’ll know how much after his next start, for which there are numerous options now.

On the international front, Godolphin’s GOLD TOWN took another huge step forward by romping in the UAE Two Thousand Guineas by 10 1/2 lengths. He overcame pressure from both sides early, shook off both horses and powered clear, remaining on his left lead the rest of the way. He’s not nominated to the Triple Crown, so we’ll see how he takes the next step in the UAE Derby. By Street Cry, his pedigree is loaded with European classic stamina on top and bottom, and he is inbred to Northern Dancer’s dam Natalma through Northern Dancer (twice) on bottom and Raise the Standard on top.

In Japan, RUGGERO, who captured the Cattleya Sho to earn Derby points, could do no better than third in the Hyacinth Stakes, at about a mile, never threatening the winner SUMAHAMA, who stalked the pace and drew off to score by 2 1/2 lengths after winning his two previous starts on the front end. Although the grandson of Sunday Silence and Afleet earned 30 Derby points, he is not nominated to the Triple Crown. Should his connections decide not to come to Churchill Downs, Ruggero, who is nominated, would get the invitation with his 16 points.

I’m not even going to tease you by going into sensational after sensational detail on JUSTIFY’S career debut romp, because by making his first start on February 18, there is no way you would think of him as a Kentucky Derby horse. But that doesn’t mean he’s not. Yes, it’s happened before where brilliant horses are thrust into the Derby picture this late with no chance to have more than three career starts going into the big race. And Baffert has done daring things like this before, running Paynter in the Santa Anita Derby off one 5 1/2-furlong maiden race in his life. We have seen it with Curlin, who went into the Derby off three career starts, although he was beaten 8 lengths at Churchill Downs, using the race as prep for the Preakness. There is no doubt that Justify is a monster in the making following his 9 1/2-length romp in a blazing 1:21 4/5. OK, one tease – this was absolutely flawless. The son of Scat Daddy showed an excellent turn of foot, switched leads like an old pro, and drew off all on his own without even a glimpse of the whip. And he was a dozen lengths clear shortly after the wire. As I’ve said in the past, it is so frustrating seeing horses with so much God-given talent come along so late. We saw it to a lesser extent the week before with the Mark Casse-trained TELEKINESIS. Coincidentally, Telekinsesis is a son of Ghostzapper and Justify is out of a Ghostzapper mare. It is interesting that Justify debuted in blinkers, but that’s for another time. All one can say is that Bob Baffert keeps churning them out as if off an assembly line, and this new product could be the most special of them all if he is as good as he looked in his debut. Facing winners is the key test.

In other action over the weekend, the improving DARK TEMPLAR, scored a wire-to-wire victory in a mile and 70-yard allowance race at Fair Grounds, defeating he multiple stakes-placed LONE SAILOR. In two stakes races that will have little or no bearing on the Derby, the filly PAVED beat the boys in the El Camino Real Derby on the Tapeta surface and HECK YEAH remained undefeated with a workmanlike victory in the Cal Cup Derby.

Another brilliant colt who got a bit of a late start, STRIKE POWER, winner of the Swale Stakes in his second career start, , breezed 5 furlongs in 1:00 4/5. The son of Speightstown looks to be headed to the Gotham Stakes, run at a flat mile this year, just like the old days.

The one Baffert colt who has been under the radar, but seems to have a future is RESTORING HOPE, who worked 6 furlongs in an un-Baffert-like 1:16. Baffert often has his horses ridden out to the wire, but Restoring Hope was on  loose rein in the stretch and the rider never moved his hands. I do love the way this colt runs with his head held low and good extension to his fluid stride. Baffert’s most frustrating horse could very well be REGULATE, who ran so well when narrowly beaten two races back, but hasn’t shown much in his two subsequent starts. He does show glimpses of talent in the morning, as indicated by his :46 4/5 work last week.

Godolphin’s HOLLAND PARK, following a pair of seconds, found the winner’s circle for the first time, winning a 1 1/8-mile maiden race by a half-length at 2-5, run in a wickedly slow 1:57 2/5. Is the Aqueduct surface really that slow?

I’m still trying to figure out what happened in the Holy Bull Stakes in regard to the form of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Bravazo, who finished 10th in the Kentucky Jockey Club, beaten a dozen lengths, comes back to win two in a row, including the Risen Star Stakes at 21-1, but the one-two finishers of the Kentucky Jockey Club, ENTICED and TIZ MISCHIEF, get beat by more than 10 lengths in the Holy Bull Stakes, both coming up empty. Is Audible that spectacular or did both horses just turn in inexplicable clunkers? Although Enticed has yet to be seen on the worktab since the Holy Bull, Tiz Mischief turned in a brilliant half-mile breeze in :47 2/5 at Gulfstream, third fastest of 68 works at the distance. I haven’t a clue what to expect from him next time, but my guess would be we’re going to see a different horse…I think.

I’m also trying to figure out the New York form. I want very badly to have FIRENZE FIRE back in the Top 12, but his Beyer numbers have been regressing since the Champagne and I just want to see a jump somewhere to show he’s back in the right direction, especially considering there is a question regarding his breeding. He also hasn’t had a work since the Withers. I can forgive his Withers defeat, coming back in only three weeks, and he did run his eyeballs out as he always does. I just don’t know how to interpret these low Beyer figures by all the New York horses and the lack of brilliance; horses basically grinding it out without much turn of foot. Could it be the tiring surface, which likely chased Marconi out of town? However, in his Thoro-Graph pattern, he has thrown in a pair of pretty decent numbers that have both been followed by a regression, once when he was sick after the race. You can make an excuse for both of those. It is time to see another bounce back number and then either pairing it up or improving off it. Once we see that, then he likely will be back in the Top 12. I have as much admiration for this colt as any on the Derby trail.

One of my under the radar horses to watch, PERSONAL TIME, a full-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Orb, breezed a half in :49 3/5 over the deepish Payson Park surface. Although he is still a maiden, he is coming off an excellent performance, closing fast from far back going a mile. He’s run three times and is improving with each start. He would have to break his maiden next time to even have a remote chance of making the Derby or more logically the Preakness if he’s that good. Another maiden who has been knocking on the door, with two seconds, a third, and a fourth, is CONCUR, who drilled 6 furlongs in a solid 1:13 4/5 at Santa Anita.

Keeping tabs of HIGHER POWER, who I featured last week, he followed up his :50 breeze with another half-mile breeze in :51 for Donnie Von Hemel. It’s all about timing now and how quickly he can get sharp and fit following his slight setback.