Derby Dozen - April 17, 2018 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

1

Vino Rosso Todd Pletcher

Curlin—Mythical Bride, by Street Cry

What 3-year-old has run the fastest Thoro-Graph number in America this year? Hint: it’s a tie and they all did it in their final Derby prep. The tie is between Justify (of course), Audible (no surprise there), and Vino Rosso (really?). That’s right, Vino Rosso ran the same negative number as Justify in the Wood Memorial, finally getting on a track he could handle. John Velazquez said the colt was only giving him 50% at Tampa, because he was only running in spots and wasn’t focused. He would start spinning his wheels on the sandy, sometimes quirky, track at the same spot on the far turn. Both Velazquez and Pletcher felt blinkers would help. Even though he ran worse in the Tampa Bay Derby than in the Sam F. Davis, they felt he was more focused and it was not handling the track on the far turn that caused him to regress. So, it was decided to leave the blinkers on in the Wood Memorial. Once he got on a track he liked, he responded by earning the co-fastest Thoro-Graph number this year. As for bouncing off that effort, he does have a very fast number in his career debut to fall back on. Only Justify and Magnum Moon have run faster in their career debut.

He may not be as gifted and talented as some of the more brilliant horses, but one of the main reasons for his No. 1 ranking is the way the race looks to play out. We do know that Justify, Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon, Noble Indy, Flameaway, Bolt d’Oro, Promises Fulfilled, Quip, Bravazo, and possibly one or two others want to be in the first flight, which should ensure a contentious pace, especially with arguably the three most brilliant and exciting horses in the race – Justify, Mendelssohn, and Magnum Moon -- all wanting to be in the same place, on or just off the pace. It is the second tier, mid-pack horses with an excellent turn of foot that will be looking to pounce first if such a contentious battle on and near the lead begins to take its toll. Those include the No. 1 and 2 ranked horses Vino Rosso and Good Magic. That could be where the real danger comes from, and with so little separating the leading contenders and many question marks regarding experience and being battle-tested, or pedigree, I am looking at who might have the advantage from a tactical standpoint.

2

Good Magic Chad Brown

Curlin—Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun

I realize he had a perfect trip in the Blue Grass Stakes and beat a horse who had to be softened a bit after battling head and head, and only beat Sporting Chance by 3 1/4 lengths despite that colt running sideways, ducking in and out. But breaking cleanly and establishing position going into the first turn of the Derby is so important, and I like the way he bulled his way into position going into the turn, shoving Machismo out of his way. And to his credit he did run 55 feet farther than Flameaway, according to Trakus, which equates to almost seven lengths. The most important factor, however, is that the Blue Grass looked to be his rebound race, and I am a expecting a big move forward in the Derby. He still ran a negative number on Thoro-Graph, and his pattern indicates he is sitting on a career best effort. Also, as mentioned above, I feel his running style will be very beneficial in the Derby the way the race is shaping up with so much brilliant tactical speed. Unless one of them puts all the others away, I can see him and Vino Rosso sitting in a excellent striking position. He is the champ, and what he did in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was extraordinary, so we know he is special. And there are few trainers better than Chad Brown at getting a horse to peak on the right day; something he no doubt learned from his mentor Bobby Frankel.

3

Justify Bob Baffert

Scat Daddy—Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper

Many of the experts feel he is something out of the ordinary and is in a class by himself, despite the abundance of talent we have this year. And he very well may be. But with standing room only on his bandwagon, sometimes you just want to wait before jumping on, especially with such an inexperienced horse who has never been tested. If he is the freak he looks to be and can overcome a couple of historical trends, then he will put on quite a show on the first Saturday in May. He is an imposing physical presence, and when Bob Baffert is this high on a horse, you have to pay attention. I expect to see him sit just off the pace, and that humongous stride of his can gobble up ground in a hurry. It would be great for the sport if he is the freak many believe he is, just as Arrogate was during his meteoric rise to stardom.

Perhaps what is most amazing is that four or five veterinarians turned him down at the Keeneland yearling sale because of a tiny OCD lesion. Breeder John Gunther said Coolmore was very interested in him, as they had his sire, Scat Daddy, but they went off the horse as well when their vet turned him down. Gunther really didn’t want to sell him, nor did he want to sell Vino Rosso, so he put a high $499,000 reserve on Justify, figuring if he sold he would be happy getting that big a price and if he didn’t sell he would be happy to keep him. As it turned out, he barely missed keeping him, as the colt sold for $500,000. Gunther said he’s still pinching himself. Not only did he breed Justify and Vino Rosso, he has two half-sisters to the dam of Good Magic. Justify actually was first trained at Keeneland by Quip’s trainer Rodolphe Brisset before being sent to Baffert. Brisset remembers him as being “very good looking and very forward, and easy to be around. He was immature, but gave you the feeling he was a very good horse by the way he breezed and galloped.”

4

Bolt d’Oro Mick Ruis

Medaglia d'Oro—Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy

After watching the Santa Anita Derby several more times I am confident that he is going to bounce back with a big race at Churchill Downs, and will do so as a huge overlay. He actually paired up his Thoro-Graph number from the San Felipe and now it all depends on whether he goes back to his sensational negative-1 1/2 Thoro-Graph figure in the Frontrunner or shows that he peaked at 2. Although he has run good numbers this year, he has not approached that figure, and now is the time he has to take a jump forward. He had to do the dirty work in the Santa Anita Derby, chasing a loose on the lead Justify. And you don’t usually see horses cut to the inside turning for home on dirt catch a good horse in front. And with Mike Smith saying he took Justify wide because that was the best part of the track, it means Bolt d’Oro was on the slower part of the track, and perhaps that inside move is when he grabbed his quarter. He certainly deserves another shot in a bigger field with a lively pace.

You know how special a horse is when they can affect a veteran jockey like Corey Nakatani, even though he was taken off the horse after finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. “He won his debut going 6 1/2 furlongs at Del Mar and you don’t usually see a Medaglia d’Oro do that,” Nakatani said on our blogtalk radio show Switching Leads. “Then he wins a grade 1 at seven furlongs and then crushes them in the grade 1 Frontrunner stretching out. It’s not easy to then ask a 2-year-old to still be at his peak form in the Breeders’ Cup, especially having to break from the 11 post and close on that short stretch. Losing that race cost him the 2-year-old championship and cost me the mount. I still love the horse no matter what and I know he’s going to keep making me proud. He’s meant so much to me and still does; they’re like your kids. I also worked him all the time and feel like I know him better than anyone; we just clicked and got along together so well. I rode Shared Belief at 2 (winning the Hollywood Prevue by 7 3/4 lengths and CashCall Futurity by 5 3/4 lengths) and California Chrome once, and Bolt d’Oro is by far the best 2-year-old I’ve ever sat on. He has so much raw talent and so much ability; he’s just a very special horse. He’s got the frame and the athletic ability, and he will get the distance. I just hold him in such high esteem. I wish I had the opportunity to ride him (in the Derby) and let him show his stuff, but those things happen in racing.”

5

Magnum Moon Todd Pletcher

Malibu Moon—Dazzling Song, by Unbridled's Song

There is a good chance this colt will move higher in the next couple of weeks as I put things in more perspective. A lot of people are wary of his drifting out in his last two races, and he did drift out significantly in the Arkansas Derby. But watching his gallops it is obvious he notices everything around him and reacts to it. In the heat of battle in a 20-horse field I don’t see him drifting. He did get away with a very slow pace, but he is not a frontrunner; he just took the lead because no one else wanted it, and once he straightened out he did fly home his final eighth in :11.99. Also, a very good horse in Quip looked him in the eye, putting a lot of pressure on him on the far turn, but he just shrugged him off and spurted clear. In addition, he did not make a smooth transition into the stretch, appearing to switch to his right lead a bit too early. You have to remember, he is a May 9 foal, so he won’t even be 3 years old on Derby Day. He would have been ready to run at 2, but he came down with a filling in his ankle, and although the vets gave Pletcher the OK to go on with him he felt it was in the colt’s best interest to send him to his father, J.J., in Ocala and give him more time to develop and become a man.

He has crammed a lot of experience into his four races this year. He won first time out at Gulfstream, then shipped to Tampa Bay Downs to win an allowance race and back to Palm Beach Downs, then shipped to Oaklawn, where he won in front of the largest crowd in Rebel Stakes history, then shipped back to Palm Beach Downs, then shipped back to Oaklawn, winning the Arkansas Derby in front of 64,000 people. That’s four races at four different distances. And as J.J. Pletcher said, “He don’t know how good he is yet.” He is one of the classiest, most beautiful moving horses you’ll ever see, with that look of eagles, and he’s still improving. Jacob West, who picked him out for Robert and Lawana Low, said he was a “big stately colt that stood over a lot of ground, with a kind, classy eye, and had a phenomenal way of going. He picks up on everything. He’s never turned a hair and loves his job. Every time I see him he gets better physically and mentally.” With three two-turn races in him already, and all the traveling he’s done, he has all the credentials to end the reign of Apollo.

6

Audible Todd Pletcher

Into Mischief—Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time

This crop of 3-year-olds is making me feel totally frustrated, trying to separate them. Case in point having to rank this colt No. 6 when I had him at No. 2 and believe he’s a very gifted horse who can easily win the Kentucky Derby on talent alone. I’m probably making too much of his pedigree, but I have to try to separate the Magnificent Seven somehow. As I mentioned, he has the co-fastest Thoro-Graph number this year, is improving with every start, and his four triple-digit Brisnet late pace figures, two of them after fast middle pace figures, indicates a horse with a very high cruising speed who can keep up with a fast face and close fast off it. And he showed in the Florida Derby he can take way back and make a long steady run. But the Florida Derby was a perfect scenario for him, with two of the top contenders killing themselves in a suicidal speed and one contender bleeding badly and never firing, so there wasn’t much competition for him from the quarter pole home. And again, he is going to have to find some stamina for that final quarter mile. He is a complete outcross through five generations and has sort of an unusual pedigree, with horses that are difficult to get a handle on. And if he can tap into Damascus, His Majesty, and Easy Goer back in his fourth and fifth generations, and also show he has as much Beholder in him as he does her brother, Into Mischief, then he could definitely outrun his pedigree, which he pretty much has already. He turned in a sharp half-mile work in :48 3/5 at Palm Beach Downs. In short, he really has me stumped.

7

Mendelssohn Aidan O'Brien

Scat Daddy—Leslie's Lady, by Tricky Creek

Once again I admit this could be the worst ranking ever on Derby Dozen considering what a monster this colt may be. But not seeing any of his training and with him not likely to arrive at Churchill Downs until late, we really won’t get to see much of him, and how can I rank a European-trained horse, as spectacular as he’s been, over those above him? We certainly witnessed the devastation he created when he shot to the lead on a notoriously speed-favoring track in Dubai and turned the UAE Derby into a procession, defeating what looked to be a talented international field. The guess is he will try the same tactics in the Derby rather than have him get dirt kicked in his face for the first time and have Ryan Moore venture into unknown territory dealing with the kickback and a lot of traffic around sharper turns than he is used to in Europe. But with Promises Fulfilled in there, he may not have an easy time getting the lead. Promises Fulfilled, following the Florida Derby debacle, is going to have to outrun the field and get a clear uncontested lead and not go on another suicide mission. So we’ll see where Mendelssohn and Moore wind up early. Many will feel this finally will be Aidan O’Brien’s year, as he comes loaded with a strong American pedigree and a colt with a ton of speed and the ability to carry it long distances. Remember, unlike the others, he has already romped going 1 3/16 miles, and did it in record time. All we can do is wait to find out just what we’re dealing with. Like the other top-ranked horses, you can put him anywhere from No. 1 to No. 7 and make a good case for it. I am a huge fan of Aidan O’Brien’s and he certainly would be a deserving winner after all his attempts to win the Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic. No European has supported American racing more.

8

My Boy Jack Keith Desormeaux

Creative Cause—Gold N Shaft, by Mineshaft

It’s too bad he had to run in the Lexington Stakes to try to pick up enough points to assure a spot in the Derby field. But fortunately, with his style of running, coming from far back, he doesn’t use himself as a horse would who runs hard the whole way. And at least the Lexington is now run three weeks before the Derby instead of two, as it used to be. He has now run three consecutive races where he has exploded on the far turn with a devastating move; once along the rail and twice going very wide circling horses. So, he not only would benefit from a fast, contentious pace, once Kent Desormeaux steps on the gas, he accelerates and gets into the fray quickly, unlike most deep closers who make a long sustained run. The Lexington proved to be an important test for him after he made a huge move seven-wide in the Louisiana Derby, but was unable to sustain it and couldn’t pass Noble Indy and Lone Sailor late when it looked like he was going to roar by them. For a second, it looked as if it might be the same story in the Lexington, but this time he was able to wear down a stubborn Telekinesis in the final jump to win by a head, and he did it at a distance shorter than he likes, and on a shortened stretch, with the finish line at the sixteenth pole. Although his Beyer figure was only a 90 and they ran slower than maidens earlier on the card, he did what he had to, and with his pedigree and running style, he definitely will appreciate the distance of the Derby much more than the Lexington. And he’s already run faster Beyer figures than that on a couple of occasions.  He is scheduled to ship to Churchill Downs on Saturday.

9

Quip Rodolphe Brisset

Distorted Humor—Princess Ash, by Indian Charlie

Despite getting beat four lengths in the Arkansas Derby, he ran a very good race chasing Magnum Moon, and even though he couldn’t match strides with the winner after eyeballing him nearing the head of the stretch, he really dug in gamely, holding off three very good horses for the place spot. And it was only his second start of the year following a 3 1/2-month layoff.  Florent Geroux could have gone after Magnum Moon down the backstretch, but had his feet in the dashboard, apparently feeling he had a better shot dogging the favorite than engaging him early. That’s the way he won the Tampa Bay Derby, and probably how the colt prefers to run. I’m not sure if a mile and a quarter will be his best distance, but he no doubt has the ability and it certainly wouldn’t surprise me to see him run well at 10 furlongs. Winning the Tampa Bay Derby in your first start off a layoff is no easy task, and having run first or second at Churchill Downs, Keeneland, Tampa Bay, and Oaklawn Park, he obviously can handle any track. Right now, he looks like a perfect horse for the Haskell Invitational, but don’t ever sell him short, whether in the Kentucky Derby or Preakness.  Brisset is a talented young trainer, who spent 10 years with Bill Mott, and his star looks like it’s definitely on the rise.

10

Flameaway Mark Casse

Scat Daddy—Vulcan Rose, by Fusaichi Pegasus

He is consistent and versatile and just keeps running his race. No one can say for sure what would have happened in the Blue Grass Stakes had he not gone head and head on the front end with a 69-1 shot. Just as he put that horse away, here came Good Magic to look him in the eye before he could change leads and level off. But once he did, he ran strongly to the wire. The only problem is that he is one of many horses who want to be on or very close to the lead. He did close well in the final yards of the Tampa Bay Derby, but that is not where his strength lies. It shows you what a strong Derby group this is for a horse with his credentials to be ranked No. 10. Like Quip, I think of him more as a Haskell-type of horse, but both colts have more than earned their way into the Kentucky Derby. One person who is a big admirer of Flameaway is his trainer, Mark Casse. “He never gave up,” Casse said of the Blue Grass. “He’s just so classy you’ve got to love him. I got what I asked for. I said I wanted a fight at the top of the lane, and we got one. Unfortunately, we were second-best today. We’ve beaten the winner of the Wood Memorial twice already. I think we can hold our head high.”

11

Noble Indy Todd Pletcher

Take Charge Indy—Noble Maz, by Storm Boot

Can anyone remember a Louisiana Derby winner who so few people are talking about, and who is regarded as the fourth best 3-year-old in his own barn? He lost his jockey, and his gutsy Louisiana Derby victory seems like a long time ago. He was back on the work tab this week, breezing a solid five furlongs in 1:01. He is another who has had only four lifetime starts, but his Beyer speed figures have improved every race, and his Brisnet numbers are consistently strong as well. Like Vino Rosso, he has improved with blinkers, wearing them for the first time in the Louisiana Derby, where he looked beaten turning for home, but battled back to snatch victory in the final strides. One of those he came back on and outran to the wire was My Boy Jack, who came back to win the Lexington Stakes. He’s not as flashy as a couple of Pletcher’s other Derby hopefuls, but to demonstrate how loaded Pletcher is this year, his four Derby horses combined have won 14 of 18 starts, with three thirds and a fourth. So, none of Pletcher’s horses have finished off the board in their career. I don’t know if he’s good enough to handle the heavy hitters this year, but, for a Louisiana Derby winner, he’s going to be a huge price.

12

Enticed Kiaran McLaughlin

Medaglia d'Oro—It's Tricky, by Mineshaft

Give him credit for taking those solid bumps from Vino Rosso and not budging an inch. It was as if Vino Rosso had hit a brick wall, bouncing off him twice. There is no doubt this is a tough, hard-knocking colt, who may have just picked the wrong year to come along. But for a 12th ranked horse he does possess some heavy duty credentials, and like many other talented horses will be a forgotten horse at the windows. McLaughlin has had some bad luck getting major players to the Derby, such as Cairo Prince and Mohaymen, and suffered one of the toughest defeats ever with 71-1 shot Closing Argument. He also had the immensely talented Frosted come along the same year as American Pharoah. Maybe this year, he can ambush everyone when they’re not looking. As I’ve been saying, Enticed just needs to find his strengths. He doesn’t have the speed to run with the ultra brilliant colts we have this year and he doesn’t have that push-button acceleration to blow by horses or the explosive closing punch to run down horses in the final furlong. What he does have is the ability to keep coming at you with at that one steady pace and take advantage of others’ mistakes. He’s as honest as they come and is going to win his share of big races.