Derby Dozen - February 12, 2019 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

First, I was very reluctant to remove Mucho and Instagrand, especially the former, considering I had him ranked No. 4 the first two weeks. That's how much I think of him. But the fact is, both these colts have not been beyond seven- and six-furlongs, respectively, and have been out since the summer, and there have been too many impressive performances to keep them on for so long waiting for their 3-year-old debuts. It was a matter of room, not ability. Mucho is just up to a half-mile in his breezes and Instagrand passed the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes and now will have only two starts before the Derby, having to stretch out from six furlongs to two turns off a seven-month layoff. We have no idea how he will come back after such a long layoff and only a pair of short sprints. But if he is as good as he looked in those two races and can handle the stretch-out, then we will know what we're dealing with. He could be special, but it's time to show it, and coming back against Game Winner or Improbable in the San Felipe is a pretty tall order. Being by Into Mischief , there is a question whether his female family can carry him a classic distance. Both he and Mucho are going to have only four career starts going into the Derby, with long layoffs between their first two and last two starts. Instagrand turned in another big work, going six furlongs in 1:13 3/5, as his works get longer preparing for his first two-turn race.

If Mucho does return with the kind of performance I am expecting, he not only will return to the Top 12, he will be back where he was among the leading contenders. So, just because he's off the list for now doesn't mean I am any less confident he will be a major force once he returns. He was even taken out of the Future Wager field, which surprised me, as did Instagrand's closing odds of only 10-1. But surely, Mucho belongs in that field that includes Coliseum and narrow maiden winner Tacitus.

The Sam F. Davis Stakes was supposed to be the triumphant return of Knicks Go following his disappointing effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, but so far, several top 2-year-olds have regressed as 3-year-olds, and Knicks Go in particular seems to have lost the form that won him the Breeders' Futurity and a well-earned second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He was 9-5 in the Sam F. Davis, but retreated to a fifth-place finish after tracking the leader and eventual winner Well Defined. who became the third horse to win a stakes this year after finishing out of the money in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Well Defined obviously improved big-time with the addition of blinkers and looked like the horse who aired by 7 1/2 lengths in the In Reality Division of the Florida Stallion Series. But he stopped badly in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and again in this year's Mucho Macho Man. As far being a major Derby horse, he still has a lot to prove, being a one-dimensional frontrunner, who is 0-for-3 when he doesn't get the lead. We'll see how far the new and improved Well Defined can carry his speed.

There has been three two-turn stakes in Florida so far this year, and we have seen three big favorites: Code of Honor, Maximus Mischief, and Knicks Go, come up short, with two of them finishing out of the money.

On the positive side of the Sam Davis, Kentucky Wildcat, coming off a slow maiden score at a mile over the highly regarded Country House, ran a bang-up second, finishing 8 3/4 lengths ahead of So Alive, who although beaten 11 1/2 lengths, deserves another chance after a bad break that put him back in last, some 15 lengths off the pace. With the field all over the place nearing the head of the stretch, Javier Castellano made a very early decision to swing wide and circle the field just as the rail was opening wide. Instead of saving ground, So Alive wound up 10-wide turning for home and at least passéd six horses in the stretch to get third, giving him some hope for his next start. Unfortunately, Kentucky Wildcat was vanned off after the race and we hope it is nothing serious.

The two seven-furlong stakes over the weekend, the San Vicente and Jimmy Winkfield, both used to be major steppingstones on the Derby trail in California an New York, although the Winkfield used to be the Bay Shore Stakes before that race was moved. You normally don't see Bob Baffert get beat with a 3-5 shot and 2-1 shot in the same race on the Derby trail. Although the 2-1 Dessman, with only one career start, was nailed at the wire by a nose by 7-1 Sparky Ville, the race bodes very well for Dessman becoming a major player, either for the Derby if he can play catch-up or more likely a little later on.

With a pretty decent horse in Savagery setting a wicked pace (:22 and :44 1/5) in the slop, Dessman made an early move down the backstretch to confront his stablemate Coliseumfor second. Rather than bide his time, Flavien Prat tried to get the jump on Coliseum and made another move to put distance between them. He charged to the lead, opened a clear advantage and looked like a sure winner until the far more experienced Sparky Ville, with seven races and a stakes win and two graded stakes placings under him, came with a late run to stick his nose in front in 1:21 4/5. Dessman finished 6 1/2 lengths ahead of Coliseum. Watch out for Dessman when he starts stretching out. This race really moved him forward. We don't know how far Sparky Ville wants to go, but there is no reason to think he won't handle two turns.

In the Jimmy Winkfield. Shadwell Stable's Haikal turned in his third consecutive big stretch run, the last two coming up the rail to nail 18-1 shot Joevia, with even-money favorite Tikhvin Flew another 1 3/4 lengths back in third. Taikal is another who should stretch out, but this might have been more of a case of Joevia tiring a bit late, as Taikal was making little impact in the stretch until he surged late, which often indicates the horse in front was starting to tire. The one-mile Gotham will tell us more about these horses.

In Dubai, the much hyped Walking Thunder disappointed in the UAE Two Thousand Guineas when his rider allowed Christophe Soumillon on Godolphin's Estihdaaf to go to the front on the rail on yet another notoriously inside speed favoring track, while Walking Thunder raced in fourth, four wide. He moved up to challenge like a winner, but Estihdaaf found another gear and drew off to a six-length victory, while never changing leads. Estihdaaf was coming off a second in the Al Bastakiya Trial to Manguzi, who had been trounced by Walking Thunder in the Guineas Trial. Estihdaaf is an improving son of Arch and will be formidable in the UAE Derby, but don't count Walking Thunder out just yet. His Guineas Trial rout was no fluke. This is a much better horse than he showed in the Guineas and the son of Violence  should love the longer distances. No doubt a trip to Kentucky will be on the line for both horses.

As mentioned earlier, Global Campaign's reputation was boosted the day after his resounding victory when Growth Engine, who had finished second to him last time out, drew off to a 2 1/2-length victory in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race. Trained by Chad Brown for Klaravich Stables, the son of Tapit looks to have a bright future.

Speaking of Brown, Network Effect, runnerup in the Nashua Stakes and Remsen Stakes, is up to four furlongs in his works, breezing his half in :49 2/5. Looking at his Thoro-Graph numbers and Brisnet numbers, he was one of the fastest 2-year-olds last year and is only going to improve. He just needs to get in the race sooner and not let other horses build an insurmountable lead. But he's always coming late and is definitely one to watch. I will take 40-1 on him in the Future Wager in a heartbeat. Brown also sent out his Champagne Stakes winner COMPLEXITY for his first breeze since disappointing in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He went three-eighths in :38 4/5 over the Stonestreet training track.

In other races over the weekend, Todd Pletcher is still reaching into what is left of his arsenal to try to find a Derby horse. He's a bit behind the eight-ball trying to get Outshinethere, but you have to pay attention to the son of Malibu Moon  after his impressive allowance victory at Gulfstream, in which he scored by two lengths in 1:23 flat for the seven furlongs with first-time blinkers. It was a workmanlike performance as he drew clear under a stiff hand ride, and looked like he had more in the tank. This was his first start since finishing fifth in the Tremont Stakes back in June. He obviously was very precocious at 2, making his debut on March 17, but has a ton of stamina top and bottom, so it will be interesting to see what he does going two turns. He joins Pletcher's Soldado, who has run only once, as his two most visually impressive 3-year-olds so far, with several others still with a shot to move on. One of them, who also is still a work in progress, is Cutting Humor, who breezed a half :48 4/5. Pletcher had another winner when Last Judgementscored by a length in a maiden race for Florida-breds after acting up at the gate. He covered the six furlongs in a snappy 1:10 flat, with runnerup Lemniscate finishing 10 1/2 lengths ahead of the third horse.

Also over the weekend, Bob Baffert sent out Sham Stakes third-place finisher Much Betterto an emphatic 3 1/2-length victory in a sharp 1:15 3/5 for the 6 1/2 furlongs, also with blinkers added. The son of Pioneerof the Nile now has two victories and a third in his two starts on dirt. At Oaklawn Park, the Steve Asmussen-trained Captain Von Trapp spoiled the debut of Monomoy Girl's brother Cowboy Diplomacy, rallying in the stretch to score by three lengths in 1:11 1/5 for the six furlongs.

I am going to expand on last week's explanation why Withers winner Tax is not in the Top 12 at this point. It is difficult to include a horse who wins by a head in a three-horse photo and not include the second- and third-place finishers, especially when the second- and third-place finishers ran two full points faster on Thoro-Graph. I do love Tax's story and his pedigree, and the way he was willing to go through a very narrow opening on the rail before that hole opened up when the leader drifted out. Rather than ignore the excellent performances of Not that Brady and Our Braintrust, I thought it appropriate at this time to let them slug it out again in the Wood Memorial. But any of those three can show up in the Top 12 at any time, depending on how the Dozen shapes up.

Last year's Remsen Stakes, in which Tax finished third, is a tough race to figure. It received extremely fast numbers on Brisnet, especially the late-closing figure, which far exceeded any of the other major 2-year-old stakes. However, the winner, Maximus Mixchief, finished third to a 29-1 shot and a 128-1 shot at 4-5 in the Holy Bull Stakes. 

I can certainly excuse Maximus Mischief's race, even if there is a question of how far he wants to go. In addition to acting up and getting a bit washy before the race, he was ridden by a new jockey, Jose Ortiz, who gunned him out of the gate, apparently not expecting Epic Dreamer to charge to the lead and having to chase him through fairly testing fractions. He was hard used to stay within striking range and even harder used to run him down and simply got tired in the final sixteenth. I believe if he acts more professionally before his next race and is allowed to settle, either on or off the pace, he can rebound off this performance.

Speaking of Not that Brady, the big storyline behind this improving New York-bred is his dam Lisa's Booby Trap. It was a quite a scene at Saratoga on Sept, 2, 2010. The big horse running that day was supposed to be Quality Road  in the Woodward Stakes. But he had to play second fiddle to a Cinderella filly named Lisa's Booby Trap, who was trying grass for the first time in the Riskaverse Stakes and was the center of attention, not only by the fans attending that day, but NBC Dateline, who sent a crew there to do a feature on the filly.

On Aug. 6 I had been in the winner's circle when Lisa's Booby Trap won the six-furlong Loudonville Stakes by six lengths in 1:09 3/5 and went back to the barn to talk to her owner/trainer Tim Snyder, as he grazed the filly behind the receiving barn. I remember what a gorgeous filly she was and how proud Snyder was of her and the way he looked at her.

But why all the excitement over this Finger Lakes shipper? The story began when Snyder fell madly in love with a girl named Lisa he met through an accident at the track and they eventually were married, traveling all over and operating a modest stable, barely eking out a living. Then Lisa found out she had cancer. Snyder felt like he was in a bad movie. One day nearing the end, Lisa whispered to her mother not to worry because she was going to come back as a horse. She died shortly after, and a grieving Snyder lost the will to live, not caring whether he lived or died. He gave up racing and went to California to stay with his daughter Sierra to get away from it all. He began roaming around the country until the urge hit him to be around horses again. That was all that could comfort him.

He attended a small sale with his life savings of $2,500 and tucked it in his boot so no one would steal it. There he took a liking to a filly that no one wanted. She was blind in one eye and had a club foot that made her gait unbalanced and painful. She was so slow it was said you had to time her with a sun dial. But Snyder wanted her and bought her privately for $4,500. Because of her deformities, he paid out $2,000 of his life savings with the balance to be paid at a later date if she won. He actually named her in a bizarre manner: Lisa after his wife and Booby Trap after a strip club called The Booby Trap. He never believed in reincarnation, despite what Lisa had told her mother, until one morning when he was bringing the filly in and she turned and looked at him the exact same way Lisa used to look at him. He said it gave him chills. 

Snyder worked with the filly constantly, changing her shoes around until her gait was balanced, and she finally debuted at Finger Lakes May 24, 2010, winning by an astounding 17 3/4 lengths. She followed with allowance victories by 10 1/2 lengths and 8 1/2 lengths before heading to Saratoga, where she romped again in the Loudonville Stakes. That is when the story went nationwide about Snyder and his miracle one-horse stable, eventually becoming a book. Even Kent Desormeaux, who rode her in the Loudonville, said he felt Lisa was inside her.

Lisa's Booby Trap did not handle the grass in the Riskaverse and finished far back.  She returned to Finger Lakes, never to regain the fame she enjoyed for that one brief shining moment, although she did win six of her remaining 13 starts. Tim Snyder wasn't heard from again. He passed away on March 24, 2015 at age 59. Lisa's Booby Trap was acquired by KatieRich Farm in Lexington and now has a serious horse on the Derby trail, one who has demonstrated extraordinary courage. You have to wonder if Snyder isn't somehow playing a role in that, just as Lisa may have done with the gelding's mother years before.

One final note on Lisa's Booby Trap. Her sire, the little known Drewman, is a half brother to Lucky Pulpit, the sire of one of racing's great Cinderella horses, California Chrome. 

OK, back to the harsh reality of the Derby trail. 

Galilean, who I still regret removing from the Top 12, finally returned to the work tab over a decent track, going six furlongs in 1:12 1/5 in company, finishing about a neck behind his workmate. The question is can he repeat his monster score in the King Glorious Stakes when he takes on Cal-breds again in the Cal Cup Derby? He should have no trouble winning impressively. And as I did with California Chrome and with him in his last start, I will go by the eye test and see if he can rattle off those quick quarter-mile splits again and how he's moving in the final furlong. Another reason I removed him is because of the scheduling of his races. When Chrome won the Cal Cup Derby it was run Jan. 25, giving him ample time to make the San Felipe to test open company and earn points. Now, the Cal Cup Derby is run Feb. 18, which would give him only 16 days to the San Felipe or wait for the Santa Anita Derby, which is a heck of a place to take on the best California 3-year-olds and earn enough points to make the Derby. It would require a victory or second-place finish to gain a berth in the starting field. So everything is a bit too tenuous with him right now, which is the reason to wait and see what develops.

We have a slew of Derby contenders running next week at Fair Grounds and Oaklawn Park, with the Risen Star drawing a strong field of 14 with one also-eligible. Good luck trying to sort this one out. War of Will and the Baffert shipper Kingly drew posts 14 and 13, respectively, with Steve Asmussen's $2.6 million yearling Gun It on the also-eligible list. Kingly is still immature, the way he appeared to drop out of it in his last start, then came on in the stretch, and the way he had his cocked to the outside the entire length of the stretch in his last work. Country House, who could vault way up the Derby Dozen with a victory or good second, breaks from post 9, and is the one who has me most excited. Limonite, a fast-closing third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, drew the 10-post, as many of the leading contenders drew outside. Also in the field are Owendale and Frolic More, one-two in an allowance race; Hog Creek Hustle and Manny Wah, two-three in the LeComte Stakes, Mr Money, a surprising fourth at 41-1 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile; stakes-winning Henley's Joy making his dirt debut; and a horse who could be a huge overlay, Plus Que Parfait, beaten a neck in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes before stumbling badly at the start and racing wide the whole way from the 11-post in the Lecomte, finishing a respectable fifth. He drew the rail and if he can work out a clean trip he definitely is one to watch. For a megabomb, I was very high on Dunph after his first two starts, but he didn't handle the slop in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and then ran a decent third from the 10-post in the Springboard Mile. Now he has to overcome the 11 post.

Smarty Jones winner Gray Attempt heads the Southwest Stakes next Monday. The son of Graydar  tuned up for the race with a strong five-furlong breeze in 1:00 1/5. Completing the trifecta in the Smarty Jones were Long Range Toddy and Boldor, both of whom will also return in the Southwest, along with 3-2 beaten favorite Bankit, who was a disappointing sixth, and who comes into this race off a solid 1:00 4/5 breeze. Fourth-place finisher Six Shooter get blinkers for trainer Paul Holthus after working a sharp five furlongs in :59 4/5. This isn't the strongest group of Derby horses, so we'll see if any shippers show up, possibly some of the outside draw horses from the far more competitive Risen Star.

A few more works of note, Hopeful and Jerome winner Mind Control breezed a half in :49 1/5 at Belmont for the Gotham Stakes. Vekoma returned to the work tab with a 1:02 2/5 breeze for five furlongs at Palm Beach Downs. The Baffert-trained Roadster continued on the comeback trail with a five-furlong work in 1:02. Also on the comeback trail is grade 1-placed Rowayton, who breezed three furlongs in :36. Alwaysmining turned in a bullet work at Fair Hill, breezing a half in :48 for Saturday's Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel. Nitrous, winner of the Riley Allison Derby, breezed a half in :50 1/5 for a possible start in Saturday's Turf Paradise Derby. Returning to the work tab after a long layoff was Endorsed, who is looking to return to the form he showed in his impressive maiden victory. He is coming off a disappointing sixth-place finish in the Champagne Stakes, but is a much better horse than he showed that day. Finally, Bill Mott sent out Tacitus for a half-mile breeze in :49 2/5. Also on Saturday is the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate.

We've mentioned Cal-breds and Florida-breds, so we'll conclude with New York-breds. Steve Asmussen either has a New York-bred who is a champ in the slop or a vastly improved 3-year-old in London House, who came off a good second in the slop to air by 15 1/4 lengths in the slop. In his only race on a fast track he was beaten 14 lengths in his debut, so we'll see what Asmussen and Belmont assistant Toby Sheets have in store for his next start.