Derby Dozen - April 2, 2019 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

1

Omaha Beach Richard Mandella

War Front—Charming, by Seeking the Gold

You couldn’t have watched his last work, a bullet half in :47 4/5 without feeling very good about this horse and the progress he’s been making. He was just cruising off a workmate and when set down inside the eighth pole he took off opening seven lengths in a flash and showing great extension. Mandella said he’s just blooming and looks like a million bucks. He’ll have his hands full in the Arkansas Derby, but I just want to see him strong at the end and not losing ground in the last eighth of a mile. I know Mandella is very excited about him and that’s good enough for me in a year when no one has emerged as a bona fide star. Now that he has paired his last two races on Thoro-Graph it’s time to make one more move forward to set him up for a big number on the first Saturday in May.

2

Game Winner Bob Baffert

Candy Ride (ARG)—Indyan Giving, by A.P. Indy

Although his half-mile work in :48 4/5 with Dr. Dorr doesn’t seem all that exciting, I thought this was one of his better works, the way he leveled off immediately, the way he cornered, and most of all the way he dug down and wouldn’t let Dr. Dorr get by him. Remember, not only is Dr. Dorr a graded stakes winner, he was Justify’s workmate, so Game Winner has been tested in the morning. He then came back and turned in an almost identical work with a different workmate, going six furlongs in 1:13 2/5, again breaking off a half-length in front and digging in down the stretch. I love how smoothly he’s been going in his recent works. But all of a sudden the Wests have another Derby horse and a homebred at that. They sure wouldn’t mind going into the Kentucky Derby with a Santa Anita Derby winner and a Florida Derby winner. Baffert compares this colt to Silver Charm in terms of grittiness and he’s been showing it in the morning working in front of horses. It would be interesting to see him on the lead in the stretch and see if he lets horses get by him. We just have to see how he handles coming back in three weeks off a hard race. Judging from his works, he appears to have bounced out of the Rebel in great shape and his energy level is high.

3

Improbable Bob Baffert

City Zip—Rare Event, by A.P. Indy

Baffert sure isn’t standing pat on his training of this colt. He worked him in company for the first time and with blinkers for the first time. He had him break off two lengths behind his workmate. He was striding our beautifully, but is still cocking his head to the outside, and his workmate did gallop out in front of him. But you can’t fault his time of 1:12 4/5. It was strange seeing him behind a workmate and Game Winner in front of a workmate. Like Game Winner he’s on an excellent Thoro-Graph pattern. With his new training style and the possibility of blinkers being added, we really have no idea what to expect in the Arkansas Derby in regard to how he will be ridden. On paper, everything looks good as far as his speed ratings and progression, but you still have to wonder if he should have been caught in the Rebel Stakes, despite his wide trip. He seemingly had that race locked up in midstretch. However, we really don’t know good Long Range Toddy is right now. The Arkansas Derby should be quite a battle.

4

Long Range Toddy Steve Asmussen

Take Charge Indy—Pleasant Song, by Unbridled's Song

He had an easy half-mile breeze in :51 in preparation for the Arkansas Derby and a showdown with Omaha Beach and Improbable in what could be the most important prep of the year. I know this colt is improving in leaps and bounds at the right time, but I really believe he is turning into a better horse than most people think and is a very serious contender. He demonstrated his sharpness by working five furlongs in 1:00 flat. It’s one thing to see a lightly raced horse improving at the right time, but you have to love it when a horse with three one-mile races and two 1 1/16-mile races under him is improving. That’s quite a solid foundation. If you’re a speed figure person, however, you do have to take into consideration that he ran a “4 1/4” in the Rebel, compared to a “1 1/2” by Improbable, so you can imagine the difference in ground loss. And Long Range Toddy is going to have to keep improving, and by three to four points, to be considered a major threat on speed figures. What is cause for optimism is that he improved three points off his previous two races and could do it again.

5

Spinoff Todd Pletcher

Hard Spun—Zaftig, by Gone West

Pletcher’s horses seem to be on an upward spiral and none more so that this colt. I believe the Louisiana Derby was a major step forward, and perhaps Pletcher is right in liking the six weeks to the big race. I am still a bit skeptical with that based on the record of the Louisiana Derby in the Kentucky Derby and the record of horses coming off a six-week layoff, but I just like this colt too much to make me back off him. You can’t just go by the stats in regard to his Louisiana Derby performance. You have to take into consideration the fact that he raced greenly in the stretch, trying to get out a little, which made Johnny V go to a right-handed whip, and still pulled well clear of the third horse and was running straight at the end. He is on an excellent Thoro-Graph pattern and not only ran nearly two points faster than the winner, he ran the same number as Omaha Beach in one division of the Rebel Stakes and two points faster than Long Range Toddy in the other division, despite the greenness and making only his second start in seven months. So there is a lot to like about this colt and I would hope Johnny Velazquez sticks with him, especially after Code of Honor’s lackluster performance in the Florida Derby.

6

Maximum Security Jason Servis

New Year's Day—Lil Indy, by Anasheed

You can look at this enigmatic colt’s performance in the Florida Derby in two ways. You can either be impressed by the way he dominated the race and came home his last three-eighths in a sensational :35 4/5 (:23 2/5 and :12 2/5) or pay little attention to it because the runner-up was a 71-1 maiden and the top pair stole it running one-two the whole way around off slow fractions. I put him fairly high up for several reasons. I do love that final three-eighths; only good horses come home that fast on the lead. Yes, he slowed the pace down to :48 4/5 and 1:12 4/5, but if you’re thinking Kentucky Derby that actually is a positive. I don’t want a horse who goes out there in :45 and change and 1:09 and change. I want to see horse I know has blazing speed be able to slow the pace down and relax as he did, with his ears up and flipping back and forth just following his rider’s cues. We know he has blazing speed because he went into the race off the fastest Thoro-Graph figure of the year except for Hidden Scroll’s maiden win. He jumped six points from his second start to his third start and still ran a monster race in a grade 1 going two turns for the first time and not running against claimers for the first time. Servis sure had no idea what he had, so forget the quality of those first three starts. The fact is he is undefeated with a staggering average margin of victory of 9 1/2 lengths. And I don’t believe he needs the lead. As for defeating a maiden, Bodexpress had pretty much the same last-out Thoro-Graph number as the three favorites, so he did have credibility and is improving. This fascinating colt could be something special who will be known as one of the most misjudged horses of all time. But I just spoke to racing manager Ben Glass and I will tell the whole story next week.There is a reason why he ran so cheaply.

7

By My Standards Bret Calhoun

Goldencents—A Jealous Woman, by Muqtarib

When you really think about it, what this colt did in the Louisiana Derby was pretty impressive. Not only did he win coming off a maiden victory, he was given some obstacles to overcome and overcame them like an old pro, being behind horses, altering course and darting to the inside, and then coming between horses and outrunning Spinoff to the wire. As mentioned earlier, however, he did run a significantly slower Thoro-Graph number than the runner-up, saving ground the entire race. And we still have no idea how far he wants to go. But if he can stretch out another eighth of a mile with no problem he still is on a good Thoro-Graph pattern. He just needs to get faster. So there are things to like about him and other things to question. This is what happens when you have lightly raced horses who emerge on the scene in March and April. You just don’t know what you’re dealing with and that makes it difficult to get a handle on them.

8

Anothertwistafate Blaine Wright

Scat Daddy—Imprecation, by First Defence

I really have no idea how impressive the Sunland Derby was other than it was a good race for him visually, especially the way he was lengthening his stride in the final furlong. But we really don’t know how Cutting Humor stacks up, and Mucho Gusto didn’t look as if he wanted any part a mile and eighth the way the race shaped up. This colt is still a bit of an unknown, as are many of them this year. I do like all the conditioning he has and all the miles under him, which shouldn’t make the six-week layoff to the Kentucky Derby too much of a problem. I have made a number of references over the past few years about horses coming to the Derby after prolonged periods of time at high altitudes, such as monster longshot winners Mine That Bird and Canonero II, as well as Conquest Mo Money, who nearly upset Classic Empire in the Arkansas Derby at 17-1 coming from an extended stay at Sunland Park. Well, Anothertwistafate has to remain at Sunland Park to train because a horse is his barn at Golden Gate died of equine herpesvirus and it could actually benefit him in regard to the Kentucky Derby if he remains there long enough before shipping to Churchill Downs. Hey, there are a million angles in racing, especially on the Derby trail, so you never know. It doesn’t hurt to throw it out there.

9

Win Win Win Michael Trombetta

Hat Trick (JPN)—Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones

He worked five furlongs in 1:01 2/5 at Fair Hill. I haven’t lost faith in this horse, despite his no show on the other weekly Derby polls. He is certainly eligible to jump right back up near the top with a big effort in his next start. But talk about being under everyone’s radar, he was not listed as a probable or even possible for either the Wood Memorial or Toyota Blue Grass until Monday (April 1) when it was announced he will run at Keeneland. Seems the tracks weren’t aware of it before then. Trombetta said it was between those two races, but he was concerned about the deeper track in New York. He also would be able to keep Irad Ortiz as his rider if he ran in the Blue Grass and he feels that Keeneland would fit his style of running more. Trombetta also said he has done very well since his third-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby. The biggest issue with the Blue Grass is dealing with the full field and early cavalry charge right into that first turn. So post positions are going to be important. We really don’t know his best running style because of poor starts, but if he is best running closer to the pace than he has been then he sure doesn’t want to draw an outside post with that sharp first turn.

10

Tacitus Bill Mott

Tapit—Close Hatches, by First Defence

His most recent work, a half in :49 4/5, was far more impressive visually than his previous work. This time, working in dense fog, he broke off in front of his workmate and was moving with more authority. He is still a work in progress and has a lot of upside after turning in a performance in the Tampa Bay Derby he didn’t look like he was ready for. He now heads for the Wood Memorial and there is no pressure on him to win. A good performance in which he is running strongly again at the wire would set him up nicely for the Derby. Again, there are so many stakes winners on this year’s Derby trail who are still unknown quantities because they simply have not raced enough. So we can only project what they will do in upcoming races. After the drastic improvement he showed from his first two starts last year, we can safely predict we only saw the tip of the iceberg at Tampa Bay. He is still a bit green and has to learn how to keep his head a bit lower, and we’ll see if he is more polished in the Wood Memorial and can take another step forward.

11

Roadster Bob Baffert

Quality Road—Ghost Dancing, by Silver Ghost

This could very well be Baffert's secret weapon that he is just waiting to unleash in the Santa Anita Derby. Having to finish first or second against Game Winner, Instagrand, Nolo Contesto and the others is not an easy task, but this horse is just coming around and may be ready to pop a big one. Baffert is really tightening the screws with strong six- furlong works five days apart, the most recent in company with a blinkered workmate who can run. The pair finished up nearly on equal terms in a bullet 1:12 3/5. Roadster had previously worked six furlongs in 1:14. I would like to see him drop his head a little more when he turns for home and cut that corner better, but he’s been moving well down the stretch. Remember, he was all the buzz in the Baffert barn last year after he broke his maiden first time out. Then he exited the Del Mar Futurity with a breathing problem that has been alleviated. Like so many others, it’s going to get awfully tight trying to get in the Derby and if he is to get a starting berth he will have to earn it on Saturday. Judging from his works I don’t know if he has the closing punch to run horses down, so expect to see him make his move earlier on.

12

Cutting Humor Todd Pletcher

First Samurai—Pun, by Pulpit

He’s a very solid horse who held on to the final spot this week because of the disappointing efforts by Code of Honor and Bourbon War, but he could very well drop off after next week’s three big prep races, which should help put this perplexing puzzle together. But he does seem to be improving; we just have no idea how good he is or how far he wants to go. After his alarming regression in the Southwest Stakes, his Thoro-Graph number leaped nearly seven points in the Sunland Derby, making him competitive with the leading 3-year-olds. With such a big jump, perhaps the six weeks will benefit him. What is important to remember about the Sunland Derby is that as quickly as Anothertwistafate was getting to him at the end he stopped gaining right before the wire and never got by him on the gallop-out. Not only does Pletcher, who was counted out earlier in the year, now have two horses in the Top 12, he could very well have a couple more after this weekend. We know Starlight Racing has owned a small piece of Justify, Audible, and Improbable, but they would love nothing more than to see their familiar blue silks back in the Kentucky Derby.