Derby Dozen - April 16, 2019 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

1

Omaha Beach Richard Mandella

War Front—Charming, by Seeking the Gold

He continues to go from strength to strength and there is no plan of attack when it comes to trying to beat him, because he is so pushbutton. He showed again in the Arkansas Derby you can step on the gas at any point in the race and put him in neutral at any point in the race. In short you can turn him on or off whenever you like. That is a powerful weapon for any jockey. First Mike Smith took a hold of him and let four horses vie for the lead. Then he gave the colt his head and in a flash he was in front turning into the backstretch in what looked like a premature move. Then he immediately gave him a breather even as Improbable closed in on the far turn. But Jose Ortiz was already pushing hard on Improbable while Smith was sitting motionless on Omaha Beach. Like in the Rebel, here was a Baffert star being hard ridden on the turn while Smith was still sitting chilly. Once in the stretch, Omaha Beach opened up, with Smith letting him do it all on his own. Both Baffert horses ran their hearts out in stretch, but were unable to get past Omaha Beach. All he did in the Arkansas Derby was come home his final three-eighths in :37 1/5 and final eighth in :12 1/5 on the sloppy track, with Improbable finishing nearly six lengths ahead of the third horse. And his final time was two-fifths faster than older horses in the Oaklawn Handicap. To demonstrate his improvement with each race, his Beyer numbers are as follows: 62, 78, 80, 83, 90, 96, and 101. By going four-wide into the first turn and still wide down the backside, and with the big gap from second to third, I am predicting an impressive Thoro-Graph figure. If this horse has any weakness, he has yet to show it. As for pedigree, remember his dam is a half sister to Travers winner Will Take Charge, who was beaten a nose in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and his second dam, Take Charge Lady, won or placed in 15 graded stakes, including seven grade 1s, while earning more than $2.4 million.

2

Game Winner Bob Baffert

Candy Ride (ARG)—Indyan Giving, by A.P. Indy

Looking at his Thoro-Graph profile, I am in a dilemma where to rank him. Many have jumped off his bandwagon following two defeats in races he had every chance to win. But his Thoro-Graph pattern probably is the strongest of any 3-year-old and his number in the Santa Anita Derby was two full points faster than Roadster. That is a huge difference between the runner-up and the winner, no doubt caused by Game Winner’s wide trip throughout in which he ran nearly 40 feet farther than the winner according to Trakus. That equates to over a 3-length difference, so with Game Winner getting beat a half-length, one would deduce he ran the more impressive race, as substantiated by Thoro-Graph. Because of that, and his experience in large fields, I decided to move him back higher to the No. 2 spot. What puzzles me most about him are his weapons. He doesn’t beat you with raw speed and he doesn’t beat you with a big closing kick, and the horses he did beat last year have not run very well this year. I just have that nagging feeling that he, like Silver Charm, to whom Baffert compares him, somehow will find a way to beat you with his heart and guts and ability to sustain his run a long way. But he needs a heads-up ride and Rosario has given him very wide trips in two of his past three starts. Remember, with the points system eliminating sprinter types, the Derby has since been won almost every year by tactical speed horses who can carry their speed. He reminds me of Nyquist, a grinder who keeps coming at you.

3

Tacitus Bill Mott

Tapit—Close Hatches, by First Defence

He not only has the career co-highest Brisnet speed figure in the field and the fastest Brisnet figure this year, he is the only horse to have a triple-digit middle pace figure and triple-digit late pace figure in the same race (the Wood Memorial), which indicates he is a horse who can sustain a fast pace for a long period of time. He came out of the Wood Memorial in excellent shape, according to longtime Mott assistant Leana Willaford. She said he was a little tired, but that was to be expected. What was important was the way he overcame adversity, taking punishment and dishing it out, which bodes well for his chances on the first Saturday in May. Willaford said the colt has matured a lot since last July and has really filled out. Unlike his illustrious dam, who had a tendency to get keyed up and be a bit of a handful, Tacitus is very laid back and takes everything in stride. So he is exhibiting all the traits you want to see in a Derby horse. He has the right disposition to handle the crowd and the frantic atmosphere, but is tough as nails once the gates open and can mix it up if he has to. To accomplish what he has in his past two starts with so little experience shows how much untapped talent there still is. In short, it looks as if Mott has him peaking at the right time.

4

Roadster Bob Baffert

Quality Road—Ghost Dancing, by Silver Ghost

Now it is waiting time as Mike Smith decides whether to ride him or Omaha Beach, and you can’t have a tougher decision than choosing between the two favorites. I’m guessing he goes with Omaha Beach. Baffert said he realizes it’s a tough choice and will honor whatever decision Smith makes. If he chooses Roadster he likely will move closer to the top. He’s been running in five- and six-horse fields and, with only four starts, one over a mile, he doesn’t have as much foundation as Omaha Beach, who has run in 10- and 11-horse fields five times. When you consider the vast talents of both colts and their prospects for the future, this will not be an easy decision. We do know he is improving at a rapid rate, showed a good turn of foot in the Santa Anita Derby, and still has a great deal of room for improvement. He showed in the Santa Anita Derby he can appear to be out of it and then turn on the afterburners and get right back into the fray in a hurry. For him to win the Santa Anita Derby the way he did, coming off only one allowance race in seven months, was extremely impressive. There is very little separating the Top 5 or 6 horses. If Smith stays with him, and he has ridden him in all his starts, that obviously will affect his standings in all the polls. If he doesn’t, he will have to settle for a new rider, which is not an ideal situation going into the Derby. He’s not a robust horse and has very quick strides, so we’ll just have to see how he handles a 20-horse field.

5

Improbable Bob Baffert

City Zip—Rare Event, by A.P. Indy

Baffert said after speaking with Elliott Walden of WinStar Farm it was decided that Irad Ortiz Jr. would ride Improbable. It seemed almost certain that Ortiz’ brother Jose would choose Tacitus as his Derby mount, especially being a New York rider with a closer association with Bill Mott. Improbable could have very easily been ranked No. 2, but it is very tight up at the top and although I was very impressed with his performance in the Arkansas Derby, I still have to give more thought as to how he will handle the Derby experience, considering he did act up a bit in the gate and still has a tendency to cock his head even with the blinkers, something he didn’t do in his earlier works this year. But it must be added that he did it going by the stands the first time, but not in the heated stretch run when he was more focused. The 20-horse field might actually help him stay more focused. He had a good trip in the Arkansas Derby, but started to climb a bit when he ran up behind Long Range Toddy and started getting mud kicked back in his face. Jose Ortiz wisely steered him to the outside and in the clear, and once he did, he grabbed hold of the bit and began closing in on Omaha Beach. Looking at his pedigree, he is by the sprinter City Zip, but that stallion has sired a grade 1 winner at 1 1/4 miles, and his fourth dam is a half sister to Preakness and Belmont winner Little Current, by English Derby winner Roberto.

6

Maximum Security Jason Servis

New Year's Day—Lil Indy, by Anasheed

He could drive clockers at Churchill Downs a bit bonkers the way Servis works him, galloping down the stretch and then breaking off into some semblance of a work on the clubhouse turn. His half-mile work in :54 4/5 at Palm Meadows may be the slowest work by a Derby contender ever. It seems Servis has been keeping him fit with open gallops. In his past two works combined, he worked the slowest of 100 workers. But all that likely means absolutely nothing, as he turned his :52 4/5 pre-Florida Derby work into a stunning victory. Let’s just say there is nothing typical about him, from his odd claiming background, to his sudden rise to prominence, to his bizarre works, to his unconventional trainer. And with it all, he could wind up being not only the best of his crop, but a budding superstar. You just have no idea. What he’s done so far in four starts at Gulfstream has been freaky. And pedigree-wise he is from an old female family with the great broodmare sire Double Jay (a foal of 1944) close up in his fourth generation and his dam being a half sister to two-time Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Flat Out, earner of over $3.5 million. He definitely is one of the most intriguing horses I have ever come across on the Derby trail.

7

Win Win Win Michael Trombetta

Hat Trick (JPN)—Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones

I must admit I am torn now where to rank this colt. Last week I expounded on all his virtues and what I loved about his performance in the Blue Grass Stakes, and why I have kept him high up for so long, especially the bold move of ranking him No. 2. But looking at his Thoro-Graph number for the Blue Grass I was dismayed to see that he did not improve from the Tampa Bay Derby and his pair of two-turn figures are still not competitive with the leading contenders. The fact that he ran a huge figure in the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes and his two subsequent races at two turns showed a significant regression leads one to believe that he is far better at a sprint or mile than he is routing. With that said, I am torn between his speed figures and what my eyes tell me, and to a slightly lesser degree his pedigree. My eyes see a horse who is not distance challenged and just needs to get into the fray earlier. I like the way he closed in both his two-turn starts after less than ideal trips, especially the Blue Grass when he had to steady at a crucial point while making a big move. I lowered him after the results of the Arkansas Derby and after seeing his Thoro-Graph numbers. Also he loses Irad Ortiz to Improbable. But I am still high on him and he should be a big price and an enticing overlay. And losing Ortiz no doubt will raise his odds even higher. Although I lowered him this week, I am not going to let speed figures completely get in the way of my gut instincts. Even at No. 7 he is ranked much higher than he is in other polls.

8

Vekoma George Weaver

Candy Ride (ARG)—Mona de Momma, by Speightstown

As mentioned last week, this colt is getting little respect for what he’s accomplished. Many are turned off by his action, but as Weaver said, “It's just the way he goes. He’s always moved like that. I guess you would think it’s less than ideal action, but he’s always been a real sound horse and he covers a lot of ground. You wouldn't know it watching him walk. Perhaps he just moves that way out of his shoulders. There has been a lot of talk about it, but I’d rather have a horse that moves like him and can run like him than a horse that moves perfectly but can’t run.” Weaver said he will train Vekoma into the Derby from his base at Palm Beach Downs. He will work twice there and then ship to Churchill Downs. He figures it worked for the Blue Grass so he might as well stick to the winning formula, especially since the colt trains well at Palm Beach and is used to the track.

9

Spinoff Todd Pletcher

Hard Spun—Zaftig, by Gone West

I'd love to see John Velazquez stick with him, but I don't know, as he's been close to Code of Honor. But he really fits this horse. No one even mentions him anymore, as his six-week layoff has taken him off everyone’s radar screen. But I still feel strongly about him other than the question of whether he’s seasoned enough and has enough bottom to go 1 1/4 miles. He worked five furlongs in 1:01 2/5 in company and Pletcher had him on the inside. It was another solid work with a strong gallop-out. He has been highly thought of since he was given his early lessons by Pletcher’s father J.J. I don’t believe he was anywhere near 100% in the Louisiana Derby and the two horses directly behind him, Sueno and Country House, came back to run well enough in major stakes to give the race credibility. And his Brisnet figures for that race were strong all around. And it is important to remember he was coming off only one easy runaway victory in 7 1/2 months, so that was a very strong effort considering his lack of racing. It would have been interesting to see him in the Lexington just to take the edge off and build his foundation, considering what an easy race he had at Tampa Bay, but Pletcher likes the space between races so hopefully we’ll see at least one eye opener in the morning and a huge gallop-out. I just think he's sitting on a big race.

10

Tax Danny Gargan

Arch—Toll, by Giant's Causeway

The closer I look at him, the more I see him lurking in the bushes planning a sneak attack at huge odds. For weapons, he is armed with a high cruising speed and a pedigree that shouts a mile and a quarter. He also is the only horse in the field who has run three triple-digit Brisnet speed figures (only two horses have run two) and did it in his past three starts, all at 1 1/8 miles. With a pedigree that is so strong on stamina top and bottom I can forgive him getting caught in the Wood coming off a two-month layoff. At 10 furlongs he should get stronger while others will be tiring. The one negative is that his dam’s three other foals to race are a combined one-for-64, including his full brother. But his third dam is the high-class Rokeby filly Wild Applause, winner of the Diana Handicap, and his fourth dam is the Graustark filly Glowing Tribute, who also won the Diana and produced, in addition to Wild Applause, Kentucky Derby and Travers winner Sea Hero and United Nations Handicap winner Hero’s Honor, who is the broodmare sire of Elusive Quality, sire of Smarty Jones and Quality Road. Coming off three straight 1 1/8-mile races, he now has plenty of foundation and should move forward off the Wood. On Thoro-Graph, he ran a huge number in the Remsen, then regressed three points winning the Withers, a tough task for a young horse running back-to-back 1 1/8-mile races that early in his career. The two months off seemed to rejuvenate him and he came back with a career-best number in the Wood that puts him right there with the leading contenders. He’ll be a monster price in the Derby and could be a live overlay, especially to put in the exotics.

11

By My Standards Bret Calhoun

Goldencents—A Jealous Woman, by Muqtarib

He worked a half in :48 4/5 at Churchill Downs and what was most impressive was his gallop-out, as he hugged the rail and continued to pick up speed, and was still into the bit well down the backstretch. He was quite the picture galloping to the pole with his neck arched in regal splendor. I like horses who get an early start at Churchill Downs and he definitely is a horse who is improving in leaps and bounds at the right time. His Brisnet figures in the Louisiana Derby were very strong, but he needs to improve his Thoro-Graph numbers by at least three points, having run nearly two points slower than the horse he beat. Although he looked strong going a mile and an eighth, the big question with him is how he will handle the mile and a quarter. He already seems to have outrun his pedigree, but don’t ever underestimate unproven Spendthrift Farm stallions. They have a knack of finding under the radar stallions, such as Into Mischief and Malibu Moon, and making leading sires out of them. So it is way too early to judge Goldencents and say he can’t sire a classic horse, even though he was basically a miler/sprinter. By My Standards’ broodmare sire also was a sprinter, but his female family has more than enough stamina.

12

Haikal Kiaran McLaughlin

Daaher—Sablah, by Distorted Humor

McLaughlin said he came out of the Wood Memorial in great shape. I like the way he ran in his two-turn debut, proving he is not just a one-turn deep closer. I just would like to have seen a bit more punch in the closing yards, as he just barely got past 64-1 shot Math Wizard for the show spot. But this could have been a two-turn awakening and he will be more effective in his next start now that he has the hang of it. It’s going to be difficult for him coming from so far back in a 20-horse field, but many late Derby closers have come up the inside, as tiring horses have a tendency to drift out, and he’s shown he loves rallying on the inside and then coming off the rail if he has to. His pedigree seems more geared toward a mile to a mile and an eighth, so he will have to time his move perfectly and hope for a clean trip. But he does have some stamina influences and is inbred to Buckpasser, so they will have to get him home. He could be an interesting exotics play.