Why Post 20 Isn't All That Bad

The fact that Big Brown will break from post 20 doesn’t change my perception of his chances in the Derby. Richard Dutrow Jr. is putting his colt out there for all to see. No excuses now; he can’t get pinched between horses coming out of the gate, and chances are quite good that he won’t get touched at all with the speedy Gayego, who breaks just inside, figuring to go quickly forward rather than sideways.

Sure, he’ll have some speed breaking to the inside in Gayego, Bob Black Jack, Cowboy Cal and Recapturetheglory. But I don’t know that there are any War Emblems in there (and their owners certainly hope not); and indeed, Randy Moss’s pace figures suggest that Big Brown may have his way with those horses early. And even if he doesn’t quite get the lead (because, we’re told, he doesn’t have to), he figures to have a comfortable spot behind horses that I don’t believe will go the distance. I think Big Brown can go the route — he has the coolest pedigree in the field with his inbreeding to the classic sires Damascus and Round Table, and enough chefs-de-race to cook for the entire I.E.A.H. contingent. Read More...