Dean Keppler, author of Betting the Kentucky Derby: How to Wager and Win on America’s Biggest Horse Race from DRF Press, discussed his approach to betting the Derby earlier this week. Now with the post positions set, he gives us his picks:
3) Z FORTUNE
For his reasoning and more on how to bet the race,
9-PYRO (6/1) Steve Asmussen’s Pulpit colt was dreadful in his first experience on Keeneland’s Polytrack a little over three weeks ago. He took a trouncing from his 11 other rivals and ran up the track in the Blue Grass at even money. He smoldered a lot of public money that miserable afternoon (including blowing up a pick-four ticket from yours truly) and never lifted a hoof. I’m gambling he makes a complete form reversal Saturday returning to the main dirt track and finally runs back to his impressive Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Belmont Park Champagne Beyer speed figures (105 and 100 respectively) from last year. His two Derby preps in Louisiana before his Blue Grass debacle were visually impressive, and I’m confident he will be rallying strongly down the long Churchill stretch, showing his traditional push-button acceleration under the confident handling of Sean Bridgmohan.