The Computer Says the Derby Winner Is...

The 2008 edition of C-J Derby DataTrack has now been updated for the last time and contains the Derby Rating, a total based upon a mathematical formula that assigns a value to each of the nearly 60 factors included in the data base.

Derby Ratings can only be generated back to Sea Hero’s win in 1993 because BRIS and Beyer numbers, which are heavily weighted factors in it, were not available before that time for both 2- and 3-year-old seasons. In the 15 years for which Derby Ratings can be assigned to prior winners, 11 of those posted a total of 260 or higher.

The field for Derby 134 contains only four contenders with Derby Ratings of 260 or better. Colonel John tops the list with an impressive figure of 296. Of the 15 prior winners, only Street Sense in 2007 had a better Derby Rating than Colonel John does this year, a 323 that was nearly 40 points higher than his closest rival.

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