Competition Curve Sagging...

It seems that the majority of common, everyday race fans are ready to see another Triple Crown. People want to feel the excitement and thrill of a sport unmatched in displaying talent and skill.

Some people don't like Big Brown's trainer, owners, or the horses he is competing against.

In Big Brown's defense, it is not the horse's fault that he is racing against "lesser" competition in some eyes. He has handled everything thrown his way, so I say let him gain what he has earned. The trainer isn't racing him. Jockey Kent Desormeaux has stated many times he hasn't had to really ride the horse, just ease him on or slow him down at different points in the race.  Big Brown is the one racing.

With that being said, I am personally a larger fan of Denis of Cork, Colonel Jon, Pyro, and Z Fortune. Even though they have not beaten Big Brown, they have been impressive this year. You can compare earnings, and I don't think you can take anything away from their statements on the track. I say that due to how well these four favorite 3-year-olds of mine have raced up to the Derby. We will see a lot more from most of them. Pyro might have peaked, but I was overcome with chills from the turn-of-foot he showed.

No matter what the argument against him is, at the end of the day Big Brown is the one racing, not his connections.

“He’s one of the most impressive horses we’ve seen in a long, long time,” trainer Kenny McPeek said. “Maybe it’s a weaker 3-year-old crop, but who’s to know that? He’s a really special horse. If he wins the next one, which I do think he’ll win and I think he’ll win it for fun, you put him in the category of Secretariat and Seattle Slew.” -- From Pimlico Preakness Notes on BloodHorse.com

I think trainer Nick Zito stated some good points Saturday, and I think Jason Shandler reiterated them as well. Big Brown looks good on paper, but the race is not run on paper, it is run on surface...meaning that Big Brown still has to beat the competition in the race.

The REAL Question:

Everyone wants to know how big and bad Big Brown truly is. Let's see him race Curlin. Curlin has proven himself to be great, while Big Brown has some proving to do still. This will be the greatest thing that could happen in the industry at the present time. To see a thrilling race of the new kid on the block and the ruling authority on the track. Don't retire Big Brown, though money seems to be a bigger deal here, because the fans want to see this battle waged.

Another key point is for the common race fans. About half of Generation X and all of Generation Y have never seen or can not remember a Triple Crown winner. That is a big deal and another reason why it is exciting. Thirty plus years is a very long time.

The Big Time:

Aside from the common horse fan wanting a Triple Crown, I appreciate that Casino Drive is also trying to achieve a record. His dam, Better Than Honour, has produced the last two Belmont winners. A dam who could possibly have three Belmont winners and consecutively? That is beyond impressive; that is beyond amazing. That is down right ridiculous, but it is going to be a very real possibility. It is also a record that I am quite confident could not be beaten.

Big Brown's trainer, Rick Dutrow, is also aware of what Japan-based Casino Drive hopes to accomplish, “The Japanese people are going to come here and think that Godzilla is dead. Well, Godzilla’s not dead,” Dutrow said at the Preakness press conference.

So which will be the big bet you take on? Do we want a Triple Crown that other horses can claim, or a moment in history, not to be repeated? It is tough, but I believe once the story is spread beyond the die hard fans of Casino Drive, more people would understand the scope of that endeavor.

What do I want to see? I want to see Casino Drive win the Belmont if the horse industry will tell the story and make an effort to describe the enormity of Better Than Honour's record. If the public is not educated about this historic possibility, then we need to have at least a Triple Crown winner through Big Brown.

Ultimately, either way, we need to see what Big Brown is made of. He needs to meet Curlin. He needs to pay his respects.

To read more about Casino Drive:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/article/45300/challengers-ready-for-big-brown.htm
http://www.bloodhorse.com/article/45299/preakness-notes-may-18.htm 

Jazil
Race: http://www.ntra.com/video.aspx?id=18306
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpBe5oxatKY (Jazil is the second horse to be shown)

Curlin, Casino Drive, Big Brown...

Dutrow addressed questions about a potential match-up with last year’s Horse of the Year Curlin, and said he would be eager for such a meeting to take place in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I) at Santa Anita Park Oct. 25. IEAH Stables and Paul Pompa Jr., Big Brown’s owners, sold the breeding rights to the colt to Three Chimneys Farm the day of the Preakness. Michael Iavarone of IEAH Stables said Big Brown would not race as a 4-year-old.

“Our plan is the Belmont, Travers, and Breeders’ Cup,” Dutrow said. “We are going to show up if our horse is good and ready. I don’t know what they (Curlin’s connections) are going to do. I would like to see them run together, it would be good for racing and good for us; it won’t be so good for them.”

Casino Drive, who many perceive to be Big Brown’s strongest opponent in the Belmont, won the Peter Pan (gr. II) by open lengths May 10. He was ridden by Big Brown’s regular rider, Kent Desormeaux. The connections of Casino Drive are expected to announce a new rider for their colt in a few days.

 “We are just looking at (Casino Drive) like he is just another horse in the race,” Dutrow said. “I would like to see him come out of the race, without a doubt. (But) we are certainly not afraid of running against him. I would think (Casino Drive) would have to have more thoughts about running against Big Brown than we do about him.  --excerpt from Karen Johnson's "Dutrow Discusses Curlin, Prado's Ride" on BloodHorse.com

source: http://www.bloodhorse.com/Now/News/NewsletterTopNews/45334.aspx

UPDATE June 3, 2008:

Better Than Honour has a feature in this weeks issue of The Blood-Horse Magazine. (June 7, 2008) It is not available online so you will have  to buy the magazine to read it. It explains the interesting sales history behind her and the legacy she has created and the plans for her currently.
 

Note:

This is the first part of two recap posts that will talk about the Run for the Roses and encompass all of my other experiences on Derby day.

 Photo: Robert Bolson

The Race:

Hands down, the 134th Kentucky Derby was amazing. The race was incredible and resulted in stories and excitement during the stretch run. "It dosn't get much better than that," one coworker exclaimed right after the field crossed the finish line. I have to agree; the race itself was just phenomenal to watch and experience. I was lucky enough to watch the race from the rail, which was an unique experience.

At the same time, I am not going to downplay the events that unfolded after the end of the race. Eight Belles was a big, beautiful horse with so much to gain from this performance. She beat 18 highly skilled horses who were all impressive.

  Photo: Robert Bolson

History was made with her performance. I know most of my coworkers were torn to pieces with her going down after the race, and I was pretty upset myself. I must say her injuries somewhat bittered the sweetness of the race itself.

I stood near the finish line, and I saw the horse ambulance fly across my view of the track. I said out loud, "that isn't good," and then whispers and confusion broke out because of something happening around the first turn. "The filly" was the next thing I heard in the increasing commotion.

People were trying to figure out what had happened after such an indescribably thrilling race. "A horse was down" and "I think it was the filly" echoed around me. Then a phone call came in from another media ally and confirmed that Eight Belles was down, injured, and "it was bad." I was trying to imagine what the trainers and owners who have lived with this horse, were feeling at a time like that. I can relate because, my best friend Abby Roo, my dog, recently had to be euthanized as it tore me apart.

After the first hour or so I began wondering, aside from Eight Belles' personal tragedy, how tough this blow was going to be for the horse industry. First George Washington in the 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic - Powered by Dodge (gr. 1) and now Eight Belles on the first Saturday in May. I was a huge George Washington fan, thanks to Marta who really introduced me to him. Two talents whom I greatly admired have been lost. I know the questions that will come, the common questions about an amazing sport.

Here are my thoughts. Recent amazing horses such as Curlin, Smarty Jones, Barbaro, and Eight Belles, as well as most names we have come to love from the past, like Secretariat, are a result of this amazing industry. Without this industry, the emphasis for greatness in Thoroughbreds would not exist and the emphasis on creating talented horses would not be present. Thus, we would very well have never witnessed the absolutely jaw-dropping performances of Secretariat, Curlin and the late Barbaro.

 
 Photo: Robert Bolson

I am so amazed by Eight Belles' race, and it is awful how she is gone. But as this was my very first Kentucky Derby, I will forever remember the images of Big Brown and the gallant filly enjoying themselves in quite possibly the race of their lives.

So to have loved and lost or to have never loved at all? It is a question I related to in this situation. I am glad that Eight Belles ran in this race because she proved so incredibly that she was worthy of racing among the best. That's right, the best. No one knew she was going to be injured, and she was fine in the race.

 She might have won the Oaks, but she proved herself amongst the boys. Plus, her injury could have happened in any race. So many people were able to get behind the lady among men idea, and it tackles issues far deeper than just simply a horse race. It was personal. That is priceless in my mind. It was a freak injury that even renowned veterinarian Dr. Larry Bramlage said, "I have never seen before." Eight Belles earned the right to race in this historical event and by golly she proved it.

 Photo: Amanda Duckworth

On a lighter note:

On a lighter note, my main bet for the race was an exacta, because I did not want to pay too much for a trifecta since about 10 horses looked REALLY good. A benefit from filming and spotting along the track earlier in the week.

So my strategy was this. Big Brown was either going to win or not finish on the board at all. It was that simple, so as a back up plan I bet Big Brown across the board (win, place, and show). I also bet three longer shots to show, to help earn back money if my exacta did not pay out. Dennis of Cork, Z Fortune, and I don't remember who the third was...

The main bet was a boxed exacta with my favorites: Colonel John, Pyro, Z Fortune, Dennis of Cork, and either Court Vision or Cowboy Cal. I'll have to find my ticket and update the horses.

I did place a bet for my mom, as she wanted Recapturetheglory, Monba, and Eight Belles. I mistyped the ticket on the automatic machine, but I had enough money to bet Eight Belles to show for her, since the exacta replaced Cool Coal Man with Eight Belles for whatever reason. It was one of Churchill's older machines.

I did not cash the Eight Belles ticket for my mom though. I figured it would mean more to have the ticket rather than the payoff. As for me, I made all of my money back with my Big Brown and my Dennis of Cork bets. So I did not lose any money on the day, and breaking even was the plan, if I did not make money on the exacta.

 As for Big Brown, he proved it all. What an amazing talent he has, and I can't wait to see him run more. The Triple Crown is an achievement overdue in the racing realm for many reasons, the sport needs it.

 Photo: Robert Bolson

Next Post:

In part two you will read about working the red carpet, various sights and sounds, Einstein, watching a race from the turf rail and more!
 

I made the trip to Louisville safely and awoke at 4:30am to prep my self for the track with my partners in media crime.

The track was very busy, dare I say swamped today. Everyone seemed to be in high hopes and in good terms. Trainers, horses, grounds personnel, and even the track shuttle driver told some dry jokes at 6:00am, too early to really laugh at the jokes. Yet I did chuckle at the shuttle driver and the guy next to me snickered a bit, we were piled in tight. The distance between the media parking lot and Churchill Downs is a long haul, especially with cameras/stands/mics/gear, so we took the shuttle. By long, I mean a mile or two at least.

All the horses were waking, being bathed and pampered for their romp on the track as we strolled through the gates. Soapy horses are just fun to look at.

I was able to watch the works of the horses, Pyro still looked great, Colonel Jon was amazing and Z Fortune looked amazing as well. Country Star looked stunning, the diva she is. Big Brown was not on the track but a glimpse of time, with his blow out being incredibly fast.

At that, what an entourage Big Brown has aquired, he could easily run his own Verizon advertising campaign, you know how in the Verizon commercials they have a huge crowd of people follow the customer everywhere? Yeah, it was like that. Tale of Ekati didn't do it for me this morning, Z Humor looked average as well. Bob Black Jack made an appearance and gave a little show parading around, but nothing there to keep my interest. To be honest, all the Derby horses looked good, I mean they did make the Derby. It's just that a few stood out strong.

I did experience the first siren/light show for a runaway horse, I had never seen one run up the bleachers before and that was eventful, but the horse was safely returned. 

 The media was covering every nook and cranny of the backside area near the track, but vanished after the last Derby horse exited the track. I heard I might see fits of craziness, but I found all the media guys to be understanding and kind. There is plenty to see, and I did not witness any bickering or fists thrown amongst each other. The media personalities and several photographers helped to spot sweet camera shots/angles and it was great! One of my several tasks was being such a spotter and it is tough when horses of certain trainers won't wear their Derby saddle cloths.

I was, however, in great disbelief at the media center and the area where we were suppose to be offered free dough nuts and coffee. Anybody and everybody were running over there, my media credentials finally felt unappreciated and feelings hurt. Free for all is the best term to describe that situation.

 After shooting video for the News Minute, we went to film the hit web show And They're Off! We had trainers and all kinds of industry people come up complementing Steve and Lenny on the previous show posted Wednesday. We would be walking around then stopped and asked about the video, not just ATO, but the Alydar/Affirmed feature as well. The shoot today, for tomorrow's release, was a blast. If you like the first one, then the special Derby Preview edition will knock your socks off. There is even more action packed commentary and explosive dialog.

I saw a lot of America's Next Top Model judge Nigel meandering around the backside, and then heard about him from several of our staff writers. Nigel was on a photo shoot for a magazine was the scoop. We did not secure an interview with him though, but if you are a media personality and reading this, come find us and we will interview you about the Derby.

Most of the sights and sounds will be seen in the videos posted today or tomorrow. Then keep watching videos through Saturday to see what else I have experienced. It is great stuff. I will to try posting here on site tomorrow and Saturday, but we will be at the track all day, so no promises. 

Side Note:

The New York Times is following the Derby also! They have some interesting things to read up on, so why don't you go check their blog out for a bit.

 

My first experience with advising a friend on how to bet held glory and shame all in one. I had been working here at Blood-Horse for several months when the Keeneland 2007 fall meet started.

I had been laying out a lot of stories for the daily PDF/News and knew who was hot and who was not. 

My friend Joey went to the track with a group of mutual friends one day, while I was at work. I had researched some horses the night before and basically played off trainers and familiar names. I also knew how successful the horses were, because I had their work times and race recaps due to the nightly lay out work.

I told Joey what horses to go watch in the paddock as well betting strategies for each race. Amazingly, he won money based on my advice. When the feature race of the day came, it was time for Joey to put my skills to the test for me.

I went bold with the superfecta picks. Four horses stood out in that field and man, I knew they were going to help me win a superfecta. I compared their previous race histories to that of the competition.

Alas, I did not tell Joey to BOX the superfecta when he bet it. All four horses came in, but the third and fourth horses were flipped. So Joey did not win money on them, but if he had boxed it, like I forgot to tell him to do, he would have won $14,000 off that race! I slapped myself and told him the news. He was just happy he won some money during the day.

So with that story in mind, here are my Derby picks. Two scenarios come to mind.

1. Colonel John - favored
2. Z Fortune - my long shot who will be successful
3. Pyro - to clean up

The above scenario plays out with the factor being how Big Brown can not handle the talent he is running with.

or

1. Gayego (after talking with a close friend he is one of the few consistent horses this year, with great finishes in his races.)
2. Colonel John - I am happy with his workouts
3. Big Brown - has talent and will be favored, but looses steam in wake of competition

The above scenario plays out with Pyro fading in the race.

Now let's talk about the Kentucky Derby and betting strategies. Steve Haskin and Jason Shandler have great blogs and information about the Triple Crown trail.

So, what are your strategies for the Derby or graded races in general? Ten cent superfectas, multiple exactas, one horse across the board, bets based on trainers or a specific pedigree, past performances? Or maybe which horse name is the prettiest in the Oaks and most dashing in the Derby, unless the fillies venture in the Derby.

I am researching and trying to understand handicapping more in depth. I would love to know your strategies.