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Whitney Weekend

 

Four Breeders' Cup Challenge races to handicap this week - all at Saratoga. Aside from the Go For Wand, they all look like good betting races. Let's get right to work.

Diana Stakes

This is a terrific race. On paper it looks as if no less than eight horses have a legitimate shot here. There are four grade I winners in the field - Wait a While, Bit of Whimsy, Rutherienne and Vacare. Bayou's Lassie, Criminologist and Lady Digby have all won graded stakes this season. And Dynaforce looks like she is right on the brink.

I'm going to take a pass on morning-line favorite Wait a While. She enters off a win in the San Gorgonio, but that was more than six months ago. She is remarkably consistent (10-3-4 from 20 starts), but at 3-1 and off that long layoff, I prefer others. I also looked at Bit of Whimsy, but she has not been at her best so far this year. Bayou's Lassie, Lady Digby and Criminologist always seem to fire, but haven't been successful at this level yet.

That left me with Christophe Clement trainees Vacare and Rutherienne, and Dynaforce. All three are capable in this spot. I reluctantly ruled out Rutherienne even though she gets Garrett Gomez and has won nine of 13 career starts. She very well could win this thing, and at a price. Dynaforce is also likely to improve in her second start in the states. She gave one of my favorite horses - Mauralakana - all she could handle in the New York Stakes last month. But in the end I decided to pass.

The Pick: Don't let an eighth-place finish in the Just A Game fool you - Vacare is a talented horse. She had a horrible trip in that race and was still only beaten four lengths. Talk about consistent. She is 6-1-1 from nine starts and has three graded wins. The Just A Game was her only off the board finish in seven stakes starts. She is likely to improve dramatically in her second start of the season, and gets Edgar Prado, who rode her to victory last year. You should get at least 5-1 on her. Clement has said that is the turf is too soft he might not run either of his horses, so I'll keep an eye on the weather. If Vacare doesn't go, I'll use Rutherienne or Dynaforce.

Vanderbilt Handicap

Tough not to like Bustin Stones. He's undefeated in six starts and even though a fever knocked him out of the Metropolitan Handicap, Bruce Levine says he's ready. Interesting that, on paper, Black Seventeen is faster to the half-mile pole, so what happens if and when the front-running Bustin Stones has to rate? He's never been behind anyone before.

Early speed could also come from E Z Warrior and Abraaj, which might set up Thor's Echo very well. First Defence enters off an impressive win on the turf and might be sitting on a big one.

The Pick: Tough one here. If Bustin Stones is right he should win. But at 2-1 or lower, he is worth trying to beat. The logical choice for me is First Defence. He was right there with Commentator and Divine Park in the one-mile Met Handicap before tiring in the stretch. He also battled Hard Spun last year in the Kings Bishop before finishing second. I like that Frankel moved him to the grass and will bring him right back to the dirt. He threw in a bullet work July 20. He doesn't need the lead to win.

Go For Wand

Ginger Punch is so much the best here that there isn't much to talk about. The only problem is that she'll likely pay $3 to win and $2.40 to place, if we're lucky. In light of that, do you take your $5 and change, be happy and walk away, or do you hope for an upset?

For contest purposes, I have to try to beat Ginger Punch (and coupled entry Spring Waltz, who also has a decent chance). I can't live with myself betting that kind of chalk, even though she is at another level than the rest of these. If I can pick the runner-up, I'm likely to get just as much to place as Ginger Punch will pay to win and place.

The Pick: I narrowed it down to Copper State and Runway Rosie, both horses with a lot of upside coming from good barns. In the end I chose Runway Rosie. She's won three lower-level stakes in New York this year, including a five-length romp last out in the Proud Delta, which is at the same 1 1/8-mile distance as this one. She is also graded stakes-placed three times, including the 2007 Las Virgenes when she was third but less than three lengths back of Rags to Riches. I'll take my chances with Gary Contessa, especially on a horse that will be 8-1 or more.

Whitney

Great betting race. Commentator, who won this event in 2005, gets the high weight and is the 3-1 morning-line favorite. He will be tough, but I'm looking elsewhere. I can't make a strong case for Grasshopper, Timber Reserve, Cowtown Cat or A.P. Arrow, so that left me with Solar Flare, Rising Moon and Student Council. Each of them should be a decent price.

The Pick: If you watched That Handicapping Show, you know I like both Student Council and Solar Flare. Both of them are in good form right now. But I decided to go with Student Council. He is a different horse since winning the Pimlico Special, is a grade I winner, and has had two sharp works at Saratoga this month. I love the fact that he is 5-3-2 on natural dirt (in the U.S.) since breaking his maiden in 2006. He should be a big factor - and at a nice price.

Good luck!!

14 Comments:

I like Inside Passage in the Go For Wan (G1) and Merchant Marine (G1), but then again, I am a bit Tiznow biased =D.  They are longshots though, and it doesn't hurt to put down a two dollar win bet for them.  I won't be losing much, but I might gain a lot if the two one.  Oh well, I'm whole-heartedly rooting for them for their sire rather than rooting from my wallet.

As for strong contenders, I've always liked Commentator because of his connections.  Notional will be a question mark, but he might do well at the distance and level.  All the others seem likely, too, but it's hard to tell.

Ginger Punch is the favorite and is most dutifully so.  Expect to see her put on another great performance.

All I have to say, go old man Thor's Echo!

And the Diana is very deep.  I'm also passing on Wait a While.  Lady Digby might surprise though.  I also like Dynaforce to improve off of her United States debut.

Who knows!  Longshots might win, but then favorites might come out glorious, too.  Another great stakes weekend!!!

Maggie 25 Jul 2008 2:10 PM

Diana: With the rain coming I'm goin' for Criminologist

Vanderbilt: Bustin Stones is at the top of his game and will continue his assault on the East coast sprinters with a win over 06' BC Sprint winner Thor's Echo

Go For Wand: Two words; Ginger Punch

Whitney: As much as I'd like to see Commentator win I don't think he has it in him today so I'll go with Rising Moon but don't be surprised if Pletcher strikes with either A.P. Arrow or Cowtown Cat

Huh 25 Jul 2008 3:20 PM

I'm one of those major TIZNOW fans, so I'm always rooting for them no matter what. That being said, here are some of my picks for the weekend.

Whitney Handicap - I'm going to go with MERCHANT MARINE to spring the upset. He can sit behind the speed horses, maybe in 4th or 5th early, and pounce on them before they reach the stretch run. I don't think the handicap division is all that strong in New York...it's respectable, though.

Go For Wand Hcp - GINGER PUNCH, all the way, of course. INSIDE PASSAGE (by Tiznow) was dull last time, but won 2 allowances before that. I give her a shot for 2nd or 3rd here if the track comes up sloppy (she broke her maiden in the mud last year). I hope INSIDE PASSAGE wins...but I think GINGER PUNCH is too much.

Jim Dandy Stk - I look for DA' TARA to wire the field again. TIZ NOW TIZ THEN (who I hoped Eoin Harty would send to the West Virginia Derby and Pennsylvania Derby to pick up $1 million in purses) will be 2nd.

Mike S 25 Jul 2008 5:59 PM

Ginger Punch, Student Council and Thor's Echo, I'll stick with the class.....

Matthew W 25 Jul 2008 10:27 PM

Another Tiznow fan here so.....

Merchant Marine in the Whitney; Inside Passage in the Go For Wand (did Borel name this horse?); Crimnologist in the Dianna; and won't pick against Bustin Stones in the Vanderbilt.

Inside Passage is improving, still would be a nice shock....Too bad I

will be working all week-end (Restaurant Manager) We have six flat screen TVs, so I'll try to sneak a peak if I get a chance.  I only have myself to blame cause I make the schedule...Next time maybe.

Aluminaut 26 Jul 2008 3:43 AM

well lets see ....mmmm ponders....in the Diana going for Criminologist,2 wins at the SPA 3/3 on soft turf..

The Vandy going for Thor's Echo hope he stalks and pounces in the stretch.

Go for Wand ..don't see Ginger Punch getting beat so went with Indescribable at a price.

and the Whitney A.P. Arrow think there is enough speed for him to run at....good luck all

steveuk30ca 26 Jul 2008 4:34 AM

Diana Hdcp: #4 Wait a While

AG Vanderbilt: #5 Abraaj

Go For Wand: #1 Ginger Punch

Whitney: #10 Student Council

Jim Dandy: Pyro

The weather has cleared and we're having a blast. Even staying over Sunday night.

Definitelythe greatest track. Hit'em hard!!!!!!!!

Alex 26 Jul 2008 6:43 AM

Forgot to add that I'm still a "Pyromaniac"!

Alex 26 Jul 2008 6:44 AM

Vanderbilt: Well now that Bustin Stones is out of the race, I'll go with Thor's Echo.

Jim Dandy: Macho Again will take this one by surprise over winter wonder Pyro and Triple Crown stopper Da' Tara.

Huh 26 Jul 2008 12:02 PM

Diana- Vacare                    

Vanderbilt-EZ Warrior              

Go for Wand-Ginger Punch          

Whitney-Student Council            

    Good Luck everybody!

Wanda 26 Jul 2008 12:12 PM

Race #1: Diana S.:

(Post No. 9) Chestoria

Race #2: Alfred G. Vanderbilt H.:

(Post No. 1) Thor`s Echo

Race #3: Go for Wand H.:

(Post No. 1) Ginger Punch

Race #4: Whitney H.:

(Post No. 7) Rising Moon

Tammy 26 Jul 2008 1:45 PM

Ginger Punch in the Go For Wand!  Here comes the "Amazon" ZENYATTA.  She worked today and is set for next Saturday at Del Mar.  Can't seem to get her drubbing of Ginger Punch in the Apple Blossom out of my head!  

Householder 27 Jul 2008 12:14 AM

wow thought Commentator got the "Ghostzapper Trip" where he has a six furlong race with a two length head start in the Whitney---thought Student Council was ready to take that and he well might've had the winner been challenged....but hats off to Commentator and Nick!!

Matthew W 27 Jul 2008 9:41 AM

I enjoyed the Whitney very much... I never thought in a million years I would get 4 to 1 on Commentator so I want to thank all of you for making that happen.  But did anyone notice how slow the race was? 1:47 for the mile ? 1:11.80 for 6 furlongs? A very poor performance by everyone but Commentator.

draynay 27 Jul 2008 10:12 AM

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