Love your analysis. I agree completly with just about everything. Another division i think could get interesting is the sprint with J be K and Benny the Bull. I can't wait to see that race.

Don't rule out student Council...

Jason, Zenyatta already has beaten Ginger this year (Apple Blossom) --and it was on the dirt (though I think Ginger has improved since that time). I'd also put Hystericallady in front of Music Note because she's older and battle hardened. Henrythenavigator is fierce.

Don't leave out Well Armed. He loves him some synthetic and dirt, and Jackson has said there will be no Curlin. Besides, I don't like Commentator at that distance and he's a tiny bit fragile.

Jason - I think that you have pegged these races pretty good and with limiting us to American horses ... well I love Curlin so whether he shows up for the Classic or Turf he is a danger for other horses but if they run Henrythenavigator in the Classic it's possible he could upset the whole Curlin vs Big Brown that has everyone talking...so if I can cheat and add a foreign horse to the mix then my picks for the Classic in this order are - Curlin followed by Henrythenavigator with Big Brown third. What do you think?

"win and you're in" is bs if you still have to supplement...

you mentioned ''until someone proves otherwise'' you will keep ginger punch ahead of zenyatta.  didn't zenyatta beat her badly in the apple blossom?? I would say there is your ''someone''

I am looking forward to the Turf events. It does look like it will be exciting, but I am disinterested in the Santa Anita venue as a whole as it will be run on poly, or whatever you want to call it. I know the Breeders Cup is compelled to move the product around, but I feel like there are plenty of venues to choose from on traditional dirt that offer owners, the industry and most importantly the fans a product that has better appeal.

The "Ginger Punch" thing really shows the East Coast bias.  Zenyatta soundly beat Ginger Punch who was the 1-2 favorite.  To me it looked to be by 5. At 17 hands and the ability to close the last 3/16th in under 28 sec she is well on her way to earning an Eclipse award unless someone proves otherwise.  She is the reason to be skip work and attend the Breeder's Cup on Friday.  

I agree.  Some other horses to consider - Go Between - Classic; Well Armed - Dirt Mile; Duke of Marmalade - Turf; Precious Kitten - F&M Turf; and Indyanne, Dearest Trickski, and Indian Blessing in the F&M Sprint.

I find it tough to rank Ginger Punch over Zenyatta (especially given her home-court advantage) but Bejarano wasn't in the saddle in the Apple Blossom, as he was still on the shelf at the time, so a rematch in Oct. will clear that matter up. The Ladies Classic is shaping up to be the best race of that weekend barring a Curlin/Big Brown confrontation. The potential of Ginger Punch, Zenyatta, Hystericalady, Music Note, and Proud Spell on the same track is mindboggling and hopefully all of them will make it to Oak Tree.

Will submit my choices til' after the significant final preps are ran,but pretty accurate with your choices of the top "now" horses Jason..I'm a firm believer in ranking the "current" Champ ahead of the pack,ONLY if they haven't regressed in form from their previous year..Though others might seem better at the time,you still have to beat the Champ when it counts!

i'm no really looking foward to the classic, even thought i think there will be an upset in the classic that what is shapping for, i do agree with student council winning. the more attractive race is the sprint with jbk, benny the bull, kodiak kowboy which will be facing and maybe defeting jbk in the king bishop, and don't forget about lucky island from argetina which will be a threat. i agree with you about ginger punch over zenyetta. i will like to see zenyetta race again out of california in a dirt track again with good competition and them let call her the queen if she wins, most likely to be uptse in the lady's classic. what about the juvineles, how can you look foward to the derby after this race, whe most likely the winner is going to be a syntechty specialit, but i do like azul leon and lyn heart or something like that, i think lion heart is going to sire the 2yrs old champion and the kentucky derby winner.

No logical reason to have Ginger Punch ahead of Zenyatta.  THis is 2008, they met - on DIRT - and Zenyatta destroye her.  Rankings should be based on logic and performance.  If Duke #2 beats Carolina #1 by 25, Duke goes to #1 - period.

Zenyatta does not have to run back East because she already beat Ginger Punch on dirt--all she has to do is win out and it's hers! Funny you didn't mention the "huge dirt edge" of Ginger Punch---as you identified Zenyatta as having such a poly track edge---heck, if Zenyatta wins BC by five, you can still vote for Ginger Punch since Zenyatta only beat her once on dirt by five, and this years BC is on poly, so she cannot beat her on dirt again!!! And if Street Boss beats that 1:11 3/5 monster Benny The Bull you can just throw that out as well!! Just make sure you give those mulligans to the West Coasters when they go back East, right?? RIGHT!! Like Col John and Tres Borrachos have any chance at Saratoga---those East Coast horses have a HUGE DIRT BIAS!!!! Why don't you have a poly eclipse award, like turf...that way you can have your own special New York awards---oh thats right, you always have!! Like I've been saying, POLY IS JUST THE NEWEST REASON TO NOT GO WEST: there's always been the up-front hand wringing/excuse making by the prima donnas of New York---I love Ginger Punch but I can already hear Frankel's whining about Zenyatta's HUGE ADVANTAGE!! I hope she and Street Boss send them packing without the gold--never mind these two might just be better! Like a horse is never gonna win The Derby again from out West--PLEASE!! It took years--decades to slowly chip away at the East Coast Bias---now, with poly, it seems to be back with a vengence---don't let them hijack the argument---just stay home and win all those one turn 1 1/8 races at Belmont---YOU"D"MAN!!!!

Thorn Song is going to win the turf if it rains, best horse in the rain out there

Zenyatta could win the Classic if she goes there. I think she'd win the Distaff by 5. Music Note would be her biggest danger.

The horse not to forget about in the sprint division is Fabulous Strike. He hasn't raced on synthetics and obviously has trouble getting to the races. But he could be the most talented horse in training (Curlin and Zenyatta included).

The top 3 in your turf division look weak. Red Rocks would struggle to be among the top 10 turf horses in Europe though he is well suited by US turf racing. It all depends on who runs in the Arc vs. who comes over for the BC, but the 3 listed above stand little chance in my opinion. I like Gio Ponti, but narrowly beating Court Vision leaves him well behind in this division.

I think Ravens Pass would be a strong contender for the Mile if Stonerside bring him over.

Jason The Apple Blossom mattered! If Ginger had won she would NOT have had to come West....now I'll get to see that one up close cuz she HAS to face and defeat Zenyatta at The Great Race Place that is Santa Anita---hopefully we'll get 75--80 deg instead of 03's 100....I too love Ginger but wouldn't bet against Zen so it's a "throwaway race" for me, betting wise...the Cal horses will be overbet like Street Boss, who I also like to win so that's a no bet race for me again....hope to get 12-1 on Tizdejavu in BC Mile and don't underestimate Duke Of Marmelaide in Classic as a player...also Harty has two sons of Tiznow that portend of greater things to come so Classic won't be easy for Brownie, whom I'll key on top for Horse Of The Year.....

Any comments about Spirit One's 103 Beyer in the Arlingon vs Red Rocks' 108 in the Man O'War (and Curlin's 104)?  

Sprint- You mention Kodiak Kowboy yet did not acknowledge Midnight Lute who is probably the most talented of the bunch. His BC last year was awesome and his recent work is a statement for what is to come.

Watch out for UNBRIDLED BELLE in the ladies classic(sounds like a golf tournament) she will beat G Punch in the Personal Ensign

After watching Ascot, if Duke of Marmalade or most of the European horses come over this year, our turf racing may be in big trouble, with our home bred favorites.  Not to mention the Million. There are just so many good turf horses in Europe right now.

For the Sprint division, let's not leave out Midnight Lute, if he makes a successful comeback this fall.  He won it last year, beating Benny the Bull and Commentator both.  I know he hasn't ran since last November, but he's back in training and set for a comeback, aiming again at the BC Sprint.  

I think your rankings were pretty accurate. Although I do believe that Zenyatta has to be on top of Ginger Punch. She is the second best horse in training behind Curlin and if he skips the Classic I think she could win it if entered. But I notice everyone is forgetting about the champ revving back up for a late run here. Thats right no one has mentioned Midnight Lute yet. I know he's outta sight outta mind for a lot of you but if he is ready do we honestly think that he wont win the Sprint. Also love the Mile with Kip Deville and Daytona. That should be a wonderful match up when the Euros are thrown in there. Nice debatable blog here and enjoy reading everyone's thoughts and opinions.

Like your picks but one comment on Ginger Punch. She got beat once this spring but her last start was a monster. Boxed in behind a slow pace finds a small opening and explodes down the lane. That's what the really good ones are made of. Oh by the way I didn't read any trash talk from the connections about her being a target in that race. How refreshing.

Watch out for the 3yo fillies when accounting for those vying for the Filly & Mare Turf title.  Next month we'll hopefully get to see Ariege, My Princess Jess, and Pure Clan go at it in the Garden City, each with the opportunity to stamp themselves the leader of her generation.  All three are in top form so we can only hope they all show.

If Gio Ponti gets a nod, at least one of those ladies should in their division.

When Jason allows under "turf" "Don't forget about: Any European", well, in the wake of Arlington, were ever truer handicapping words spoken. Hopefully, we will get to see arguably the best horse in the world, the Irish turfer Duke of Marmalade, foaled in 2004 and Buckpasser 4X Sire's Dam and even more excitingly for us pedigree nuts, the Dam's Dam as well.

Thanks for the analysis Jason. After factoring in that the Europeans aren't rated as of yet and that its still too early to even think about the 2 year olds, I will watch the races one by one and set myself up for a last minute cram session the nights before the Breeder's Cup. Too much information to digest over hypothetical fields for races 2 1/2 months away. Serenity now!

Have we heard anything about Crossing the Line for the BCM?  If he can get back to last year's form he will be tough to beat.

Obviously Zenyatta is #1 for the Distaff.  

I'd be shocked if Gio Ponti can go 12f in top company w/ his pedigree.  Court Vision is no monster.  Winchester is the 3-y-old to include.  His Secretariat was unbelievable.  

You leave Ginger Punch, Curlin, and Kip Deville in the top spot, but you don't give a mention to Midnight Lute?

Commentator has as much chance of going 10 in a big field on synthetic as I do.  Student Council is made for 10f on synth.  

Red Giant? J'Ray? How about Crossing the Line or Whatsthescript?  How about Ventura for either of those races.  J'Ray is a Grade 3 horse.  Pure Clan, Country Star, Wait a While are true Grade 1 10f fillies.  

derbyme - There is no gaurantee that Midnight Lute will run again.  He is in *training* right now, having not raced since November for a various of reasons, among them soreness.  He may not make a successful comeback, which will be horrible for all of his fans, but after being off for already almost 9 months, it is a very real possibility.

Zenyatta/Ginger Punch.....Its EARLY (7 races) in the game (and I don't want to putforth any heresy), but Zenyatta is starting to remind me of the great Ruffian.  Based on what we've seen (evidence) so far, and if she stays healthy, she could become one of the great female thoroughbreds' of all time.  Time and racing will ultimately tell the tale, but she is clearly a very, very special horse.

Don't forget about Casino Drive!..yeah,that's right.Casino Drive!..to do what he did in the Peter Pan Stakes in only his 2nd start,while shipping from Japan and having to quarentine for 2months+ is a sign of a Very Top Quality horse..He's making his way towards Santa Anita for a prep,then onto the BC Classic if all goes well,can't wait..The reason he hasn't raced since being scratched from the Belmont Stakes is because Japanese horses must be quarentined for 2months before being allowed to ship out of the country,and 1month when shipping to Japan.

 I agree with your decision to rate Ginger Punch above Zenyatta for now.  I've seen both race in person and love both.  Zenyatta is a freak, she takes on all comers, and toys with them.  Ginger Punch just keeps getting better and better.  I don't think she was quite at her best in the Apple Blossom, but she's become a monster now.  Her last victory was so guttsy, you can't get much more impressive than that.  

 It would be great to see Music Note enter and win the Travers, but looks like she'll be heading to the Alabama.  Either way, she'd probably win.  

 This has to be one of the strongest years for all female divisions of racing in a long time.  The competition come Breeders Cup day will be breathtaking.  Can't wait to see Hystericallady run again.

How come no one mentioned Bustin Stones or Harlem Rocker?

Since the connections of BIG BROWN are ducking CURLIN I hope they do take him to the Pennsylvania Derby because he's going to get beat by TIZ NOW TIZ THEN. Just you watch.

My Breeders Cup predictions so far:

CLASSIC: Since CURLIN isn't coming (he will win, if he does) I'll go with a 1-2 for Winstar Farm, with WELL ARMED and COLONEL JOHN. BIG BROWN (if he even shows up) will be a lot like WAR EMBLEM in the Belmont Stakes and Pacific Classic - a well beaten, overrated favorite.

DISTAFF:  ZENYATTA, of course, with a photo for 2nd between GINGER PUNCH, HYSTERICALADY and TOUGH TIZ's SIS.

SPRINT: STREET BOSS

TURF MILE:  TIZDEJAVU in an upset over KIP DEVILLE.

FILLIES SPRINT: BEAR NOW (7 furlongs is perfect for her).

TURF:  RED ROCKS (unless some better European comes over).

FILLY & MARE TURF:  MAURALAKANA

I think Mike S is a not-so-subtle TIZNOW fan.....

Tiz Now Tiz Then in the PA Derby

Well Armed/Colonel John 1-2 in the Classic

Tough Tiz's Sis placed in the Distaff

Tizdejavu in the Mile.

Bear Now in the fillie's mile.

Mike S, do you own Tiznow?

I love your rankings. I am excited when I show up to Santa Anita and see the females run. The lineup if they all show up will make it the feature race on Friday. I wish Zenyatta would run against the boys in the classic because I feel this might be the year with Curlin not coming and mediocre year for classic runners for a filly to win. Think about Macho Again for the classic. I think he might be coming around at the end of the year.

All I hear from the Big Ole Browneye's connections lately are quack, quack, quack. So the Woodward "doesn't quite fit" and now they acknowledge they are afraid to run again at Belmont in the Jockey Gold Cup because Brownie can't handle the atmosphere there.

It's not written in stone or a rule that the Breeders Cup Classic winner is automatically the HOY. In fact I'm not sure every Classic winner has been chosen for that honor. This year they are going to have to decide HOY based on who they have faced. It's apparent the Breeders Cup Classic is going to come up as probably the weakest field in some time if not ever so that is not going to decide anything.

Based on competition it's a no brainer. Curlin has travelled the world and faced the best mature older horses out there. The Big Ole Browneye hasn't faced anything so far outside of 3 yr olds and for the most part thay have been weak, immature, and not fully developed. This years addition of the Classic is going to be a watered down version so that won't help his argument there.

Assuming both horses win out and in either case that is not a guarantee, I have to wonder why Brownies connections are willing to forfiet the HOY a when they have ample opportunity to face Curlin on dirt where they should meet to decide. To take the title away at this point and once again assuming they both win out just won't happen. To be the best you have to beat the best and Duckie Dutrow and Company aren't willing to take that chance. They talk a good game but haven't backed it up at all. As a challenger if you want the title go where the Champ is and take it. It's as simple as that. Curlin's connections keep offering up that opportunity and the Big Ole Browneye's keep ducking it. .

I would guess that the next race  BB's connections would have chosen for him might have been the West Virginia Derby had it not already been run.  Can they shop around and find easier spots for their horse so he won't have any competition?  What are they so afraid of anyway?

Zenyatta should go for the BC Classic as she'd win it.

The surface is very important to the race and there's no doubt that Curlin will not be as good on Synthetics as Dirt.

Henrythenavigator is over hyped and may not stay 10f. Kip Deville is the best miler in the world and will beat any European horses that turn up for the BC Mile. If Zarkava turns up for the BC Filly And Mare Turf then the American horses shouldn't turn up. As for Red Rocks being the best in the American Turf division, that's worrying. There at least 30 horses who are better than him in Europe over a Mile And a Half. He struggled to win what American's would call an "allowance race" at Lingfield Park earlier in the year. Big Brown is a Turf horse and should be aimed at the BC Turf.

Do you not think that synthetics is the reason Henrythenavigator is running in the Classic after George Washington? Synthetics suit grass horses better than Dirt horses. The Breeders Cup should allocate a championship day on Synthetics at some other point in the year. Is there any need for Grass races this year at the Breeders Cup with a synthetic track in use? I'm sure January sounds good enough. Neither the Triple Crown tracks nor New York tracks will be installing a synthetic track anytime soon.

forget poly-track.  I've been a player over forty years, and now you ruined tbe breedeer's cup for two years. I wrote the blood horse that was not published, why horses break down much more then in the past. pinhookers take two year olds and try to break fractions in one eight of a mile.  11 seconds then 10 and not I hear 9 seconds and change is the fade.  two year olds should be trained differently. remeber the green monkey, his price and his unprofitable form.

Hi Johar!  LOLOLOL!  No, I don't own TIZNOW. However, I think those horses I mentioned are top class runners who all love the synthetic tracks, so I give them a big shot on Breeders Cup day. Maybe TIZDEJAVU is the most unlikely, though, because he'll be going a mile with the fastest milers in the world, and the fractions will be fast all the way around. I'm not saying he can't compete in a race like that one, but that, so far, he hasn't. I think the Turf Mile will go to KIP DEVILLE or maybe one of the Europeans (HENRYTHENAVIGATOR, if he shows up), but I'm just wishing and hoping that TIZEDJAVU wins.

In all honesty, though, I can totally see WELL ARMED or COLONEL JOHN winning the Classic; TOUGH TIZ'S SIS finishing 3rd in the Distaff (can't see her beating ZENYATTA); BEAR NOW taking that 7 furlong filly & mare sprint (distance is perfect for her, I think).

And I can absolutely see TIZ NOW TIZ THEN winning the Pennsylvania Derby. No kidding.

I don't own TIZNOW. I'm not Kenny Troutt, Bill Casner, Michael Cooper or Pam Ziebarth. But I had the pleasure of meeting Mr. Casner, and talking to him for an hour, during morning workouts on the day of the Santa Anita Derby. He's an intelligent, good-natured and friendly man. He and his wife are very fine people.

AEM...Love your comarison of Zenyatta to Ruffian!  Perhaps her connections will try the boys and then we can draw comparisons to Lady's Secret!  She is simply the best thing in training and as Trevor Denman called it in the Hircsh "Simply Poetry in Motion!" As for the BC Classic.  The winner is going to come out of the Pacific Classic.  Forget about Culin and BB.  

I don't understand why if it's "win an your in" why an owner would have to pay over $200,000 to get in the Breeder's Cup. The horse just won the race and won $300,000 and to get into the BC they would have to spend all they just earned. Seems a little much.

I've never weighed in on the whole Big Brown vs. Curlin and who is better.  But after Well Armed's performance in the Pacific Classic in my opinion Culin's stock just soared.  Well Armed rates a bit and ends up just 1 length off the eventual Pacific Classic winner Go Between after slow fractions of 47.36, 112.20, and 137.06.  Go Between now seems poised as the Breeder's Cup Classic favorite and rightfully so.  Based on Well Armed's performance in the Dubai World Cup...this puts Curlin 8 lengths in front of this crew (Go Between, Well Armed, Mast Track).

My Division Leaders:

CLASSIC:

1. Curlin

2. Commentator

3. Duke of Marmalade/Henrythenavigator

DISTAFF:

1. Ginger Punch

2. Zenyatta

3. Proud Spell

TURF:

1. Red Rocks

2. Spirit One

3. Gio Ponti

F&M TURF:

1. Mauralakana

2. Forever Together

3. J' Ray

SPRINT:

1. Street Boss

2. Visionaire

3. First Defence

MILE:

1. Kip Deville

2. Whatsthescript

3. Daytona

JUV. FILLIES:

1. Mani Bhavan

JUVENILE:

1. Desert Party

2. Vineyard Haven

3. Notonthesamepage

DIRT MILE:

1. Divine Park

TURF SPRINT:

1. Mr. Nightlinger