Any of these horses are capable of winning that's for sure. I won't be suprised by the winner. Of these horses I want to see Curlin win, but if he doesn't show up I'd like to see the Duke or Casino Drive win. And if Zenyatta gets into the mix it's all over. She's just too good to be in the Ladies Classic.

Roughly 35 days away, hopefully what you wrote Jason will fall into shape. The only Classic field I think that would compare would be the 98 field.

I like Mambo in Seattle & Colonel John in the Classic. Curlin looks to me like he's tiring a bit from this long campaign & Big Brown just ran his guts out to beat some "iffy" older turfers, while Commentator won't get a 1 1/4 mile unless he's loose on an easy lead, & the Europeans are unpredictable on synthetic.  

I think it will be fantastic.  The best horse race of the year no doubt because all the horses are top horses.  This is what makes racing so much fun!  I just hope that all the horses come into it sound and come out of it sound no matter who wins.

If the unbeaten Zenyatta were to run in the Classic and beat the boys, she will be your Horse of the Year folks.

I would love to see "old" Big Brown in the BC, that would be something! I just hope his sore legs will get along with his warrior's heart.

if Duke of Marmalade goes in the Classic, Henrythenavigator moves to the Mile.  New Approach is another under strong consideration for the Classic

"I like Mambo in Seattle & Colonel John in the Classic".

Those two are pretty weak although synthetics could move them up. Big Brown proved he can go pretty much as fast as he's asked. Curlins long campaign? He's only raced 4 times!

Hey you all!

 If Commentator shows up with his 120 Beyer, the old boy is going to leave the others in his wake.  I have a feeling he's going to be hard to beat if he's on his game!!

Shaping up to be a good one regardless of who shows and who doesn't.

Rick, they are refering to Curlins very trying 3 and 4 yr old campagne in which he has had little to no down time running Ark derby thru Woodward always showing up no matter what...slop,heat, even the turf, 2nd to a BC Turf winner with a poor ride, thats my boy, if he goes, he wins, BB finishs 3rd behind C John..Casino behind him.

Beyer numbers are only relevent as the stakes race you run in and final time, not the competition. You can throw out Commentators high Beyers when he runs against this crew. It's every horse for himself in this race because of the new track surface. There will probably be a horse win this race from out of the blue.

I would like to see how good Zenyatta is against the boys, but if she isn't a Genuine Risk, Rags or Belle she'll get her skirt handed to her.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN LETS NOT BE NAIVE, WHEN THEY TURN FOR HOME IN THE CLASSIC IT WILL BE BIG BROWN AND CURLIN, 1ST OR 2ND AND THEN THE STRECTH WILL DECIDE WHO'S HORSE OF THE YEAR,AND IT WILL BE ONE FOR THE AGES PROBABLY A NOSE OF DIFFERENCE, THATS WHY IT IS CALLED THE "CLASSIC".

What an amazing story it would be if ZENYATTA were to win the BC Classic! I don't know if she's even going to try it, though, since the trainer said he's going to stick with the Distaff.

COMMENTATOR would stand a chance if he got loose on an easy lead, but I don't see that happening in this race. So as much as I like COMMENTATOR I don't think he can win this.

I would dismiss PYRO, SMOOTH AIR, CASINO DRIVE and STUDENT COUNCIL, not because they're not good horses (they are), but because I think the race is just too tough for them.

BIG BROWN and CURLIN have a good chance of winning this but somehow I don't think they will. I think they're both approaching being "over the top," and not a "peak performance." I might change my mind if CURLIN wins the Jockey Club Gold Cup in dominant fashion.

MAMBO IN SEATTLE is sure peaking at the right time, and he has a big shot. GO BETWEEN is running great, and has a good chance too.

COLONEL JOHN is back on the beam, and he's going to be tough to beat, but I don't like the 62 layoff. I think he can win this race, and I think he is going to. The biggest danger to him is WELL ARMED. This is one fantastic horse.

I will narrow this race down to COLONEL JOHN, WELL ARMED, MAMBO IN SEATTLE, GO BETWEEN and CURLIN.  

i'm new in horse racing so for me the best classic was the one that sunday silence and easy goer ran. the best field for me( and i specifie for me. ) was last years, it was a dream field if only it wouldn't have rain. plus i was in the breeders cup for the firts time and in a track also for a firts time to see my favorite horses street sense, curlin and hard spun. this years look really intereting. mambo in seattle and colonel john was a great race and i think the could give a good battle to anybody. ofcurse i'm a curlin fan so i want him to win, but i really like big brown last races so i give him a chance. now the ones that i will like to win are student council i think he is a good horse and pyro, i love pyro he all ways give his best and something all ways happen that he can't win a grade 1 race, but i will be great to see him win a big one. if not anybody but the europeans i hate europeans horses, not the animals but how peoples consider the best in the world. yeah the best in the world remember dylan thomas.

If New Approach joins either Henry or the Duke in the Classic, this is going to be the coolest field since '98. That's the nice thing about synthetics; it gives the Europeans more races to play in.

Danylson, you are RIGHT ON!!! I can not wait for ALL the BC races.

The fillies and mares are going to be spectacular this year. I am so

excited!!!

I wish Zenyatta would run in the Classic. I think she could beat Curlin and Big Brown and be Horse of the Year. But if neither Curlin or Big Brown win the Classic and she wins the Ladies Classic she should be Horse of the Year because she'll have done more in her division than them and will be undefeated.

The best classic field ever assembled was the 98 Classic featuring Skip Away, Silver Charm, Touch Gold, Gentlemen, Swain, Coronado's Quest, Victory Gallop and Awesome Again. Would have been even better if Free House and Real Quiet made it that year. I think this years Classic would be really interesting to see

I think the 98 Classic was deepest ever, but if all the names mentioned show up it should be one helluva a race.

Oh my, oh my! Go baby, go!

Clay, you forgot if she's as good as Miesque in the BC mile (2x), Shuvee, Dreaming of Anna, Lady's Secret, Personal Ensign, Ouija Board, Gamely, Beldame, Serena's Song, Winning Colors, Tosmah, Busher, Regret, Lethal Heat ....

;-) Rachel

If I'm running against Big Brown in the Monmouth Stakes & have the opportunity to beat a Kentucky Derby winner & see he's the controlling speed in a race-I'm entering a rabbit in the race. Plus the purse was nothing to sneeze about! Am I right or wrong?

I think the Goodwood is one race to watch. I think Go Between and Well Armed are both going to race there. If Go Between likes the Pro-Ride he's definitely one to watch. Wide open field although I'll be rooting for Curlin, then the Tiznow's!

Well folks I must say that if this race takes place with all these contenders, WHAT A DAY THAT WILL BE..... This line-up is spectacular to say the least.  You got. I want to see how COMMENTATOR runs in the Mass Cap before I start to speculate because I believe that horse is the only horse in that lineup to give CASINO DRIVE a run for the money. MIKE S. said that this race is too tough for CASINO... You are joking right?  I just had to laugh on that one.  As for the Fillies and Mares... I cant wait to see ZENYATTA step out there... WOW, what a day.  Hope this line-up happens, I have my TRIFECTA already ready!

Josue555 I agree with you on Pyro, I love himm too and can only hope to see him win a big race. I do think the Classic is a little too much to ask of him but if he were to return to the winning form he had before the Derby there is always a chance. Who knows hong ant one horse mat take to the Santa Anita surface, it could be a total upset by an unexpected horse.

 I do hope Curlin goes, would love to see him mix things up for BB. Also would like to see if Casino Drive is as good as his brother and sister were. I definitely think this is shaping up to be avery interesting Classic.

What a line up if everybody shows up. It'll be an honest pace with BB and Commentator. Lots of stalkers and some major deep closers. It could be a race to compare to other great years. Jason as usual you've got a good grasp on the handicapping angle.

Well for months now all I have heard is whining about the BC being held at Santa Anita on Pro Ride. The fact is this is going to end up bringing more diverse talent into the race and perhaps showcase the talents of really gifted horses.  Talented dirt and turf horses meeting up on Pro Ride may be racings future.  Maybe its the surface they can both play on to see who really is the best in the world. The winner this year will face more talented horses on his way to victory than ever before.  To the winner go the spoils.

Draynay: I agree with your comment about the diversity in horseflesh on the new surface. I'm a firm believer in poly and see this as a new era in horseracing. More options for grass horses can only mean bigger fields and larger pools for betters.Racing is international and this gives overseas horses another option.

Obviously, Im Irish so I'm rooting for Aidan O' Brien especially since Henrythenavigator is my favourite horse. But this year and last year I decided to follow US racing (You can watch it on satelite tv) and I love it! I really love Big Brown and Colonel John but Curlin is the best. Im only 14 so I dont remember the 1998 classic...

Case in point. Kempton Park outside of London has a Kentuky Derby Challenge Stakes set for March of 2009. Scary hey Draynay cause we were just commenting on this subject. Talk about timing.

CURLIN !!!!!!

Jeremy, right on with your comment there brother. I was a huge Free House fan and was sad that he didn't go.

Jason, I was thinking the same thing. I read his comment and thought to myself 'this isn't Draynay, he would have said BB is going to smoke the field by 5!'haha! Kudos to Draynay!

Hey, is casino drive actually here? Can someone tell me 'cause I have only read he was supposed to be hear in mid-sept? If he runs one prep race before the BC, it will make the BC his 4th start in his life...if he wins the BC in his 4th career start against some of the horses that are planning to come...OMGOSH! He was my pick for the Derby...right now I'm rooting for him, Zenyatta, Curlin, Commentator and Student council...or any one of Tiznow's babies!!! There's no logic..at the end of the race year I root purely for faves.

Lol... I deserve that ...however we are discussing the race itself and I think this year more than any other you will see more gifted horses from around the world than you ever have before.  For a fan like myself the thought of seeing the very best from turf and dirt horses meeting on a surface they can both compete on will make this years Champion a true World's Champion. I don't have to say anymore than that... you all know where my win money will be...

 Curlin all the way!!  

This is going to be an awesome race if they all show.  What a boost for the sport!!

Go CURLIN!

I attended the 03 Cup at SantaAnita; it was about 100 degrees-highly unusual.  But does anybody have an idea how Southern Cal heat could affect European runners? If I recall they did not like the Florida heat Cup time either; some already had winter coats.

i dont want zenyatta to run against the boys. i want her against the fillys.

Zenyatta vs. Proud Spell

Curlin vs. Big Brown

thats like a card made in heaven!

I do think the race is too tough for CASINO DRIVE. He beat maidens quite handily, then won against a mediocre field in the Peter Pan Stakes. Both nice wins. He's a very nice horse, I like him. I just can't see a horse winning the BC Classic in his 3rd lifetime start (or 4th). If he wins he gets all the credit in the world.

Jason-- unless Jess Jackson has further refined his comments and/or you are operating on "insider information", I would say he opened the door a crack to Curlin running, but you say a 50-50 shot?

Regardless, neither BB or Curlin will prove to be a factor in this race, unless your analysis has the incomparable Duke of Marmalade running them both down-- it's the prospects of seeing the Duke on the track which has got my juices flowing.

BTW and speaking of the Euros-- what is your take on Churchill Downs and Kempton Park making the latter's 03/18/09 Challenge Stakes a "win and you are in" the 20-Horse Derby field? I say great idea, provided this is coupled with overdue reform to how the graded stakes criterion applied here in the States in determining the other 19...hitting one race big as a 2 YO should not freeze out a blooming and multiple-race-tested 3 YO, in my estimation.

does anyone know anything about georgie boy ? is this horse ever going race again ?

Wow!Wow! Wow!

I think Curlin will win, but if he's not his usual great self, I think the three year old peaking at the right time is Mambo in Seattle. I also hope Commentator runs so he keeps BB honest on the lead.

da3hoss, OK I couldn't name all the best fillies she would have to emulate to beat the boys, just the 3 I could think of at the time.

Anyway, I think if Curlin or BB doesn't win its going to be a Cal horse. I'm going to scratch the europeans, the 3 year olds, and horses that haven't run on synthetic. Longshot - Tiago. Oh what the heck!

well Jason i agree even though might not be the greatest field shaping up certainly the most competative in years.Zenyatta love to see here in the Classic might be good enough to beat the boys this year.

As for Big Brown good for him winning as he did at Monmouth reminded me of his Florida Derby win I don't care much for his connections but seemed a way to big of an improvment after his Haskell crawl...hate to say maybe Mr Dutrow had his Juice out again..and that's a no no on BC day.

Calling it now Big Brown not in top 3 if he does go to the Classic (steroid free race)I will give the horse props looks a far better horse on turf than dirt.

But he aint going to have that front if the likes of Commentator and Well Armed show up.

A thought Jason Zarkava the french freak and probable favourite for the Arc,do you think she will try the BC Turf or stick to the Mile....

Reaction!..I rest my head in "Sunny So.Cal",but absolutely detest these artificial surfaces.So much so that I stopped wagering on "these" tracks completely.I echo the same feelings as Bob Baffert,in that it takes away from a horses natural brilliance(speed/acceleration).Most of the races are like a merry-go-round.And I hate that it plays like an Off track: some horses like it,some dont..Now..

Zenyatta should NOT run in the BC Classic,she already has her hands full with Music Note,Proud Spell and a few other solid distaffs.The "Boys" will simply crush her,and she'll end up losing all hope of a possible HOTY award(remember Azeri?).

Why install 2yo turf races into the BC card when there's very minimal prep/stake races for them  here in the U.S?..that gives the Europeans a BIG advantage(yes I know who won last years').

This is shaping-up to be a helluva' field for the BC Classic,if all goes as planned.And I'm STILL banking on Casino Drive!..What?..I just feel he's a very Top Class Horse by way of his scintillating maiden win,then shipping ALL the WAY over here from Japan and embarrasing his foes in the G.2 Peter Pan in his 2nd start(too bad he missed the Belmont,he would've crushed em').Can't wait to see how he takes to this freakin' Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita in the Goodwood Hdcp. this month..And why can't Casino Drive win the Classic in "only" his 4th start?..If BB took the Derby in his 4th,I now believe anything is possible..Countdown!..

Oh yeah! 1 more thing I wanna' add:

BRING BACK THE DIRT TRACKS!!!

The hell with (diversity) on these artificial surfaces..Keep the Turf horses on Turf,and the Dirt horses on Dirt!.The Industry moved way too quick in installing ALL these fake surfaces.They should've concentrated a bit more on trying to improve the natural Dirt setting..OK,I'm done..

Well when Casino Drive went out on his first race he ran 9 furlongs and dominated the field by winning it with a commanding 11 1/2 length's also gaining speed as the race went on.  Then on his second out he went 1 and 1/8 miles in 1:47.87 with another commanding lead of 5 3/4 length's. Again he only gained speed as the race went on. This horse is only getting better and for me I hope everyone bets on the horse that is "hot" for the moment like Curlin or BB so I can rake in the payday on Oct 25.  Not to mention that Casino has had some serious training time since the Belmont Stakes, he is ready for another win. This horse reminds me of the accomplishments made by NIJINSKY or ORMONDE and How about CITATION? In his first 3 years, Citation won 27 times with two seconds in 29 starts. I dont like eating crow but if I have to I will. :)  

Joe,

100 degree heat here in late October is extremely rare.  We have even had Christmas at 98 a time or two but both instances are very unlikely to happen this year.   The weather here is usually perfect in late October through May.  It will probably be about 75 and clear.

I just read from NTRA that Casino Drive will arrive in California on Oct. 1 to complete preparations for the Classic.  So I guess we wont see him in the Goodwood Stakes.  :(

I'm leaning toward a Big Brown/Col John exacta, with Zenyatta being the wild card...agree on '98 Classic as best field but think Tiznow over Giants Causeway was the strongest race, better than Ghostzapper, who like Commentator's Whitney only really ran a 6 fur race with a two length head start (soft fractions/lonely on the lead)...but this year looks strong and I'm keeping my fingers crossed...also attended '03 Cup at Santa Anita and Euros did very well on the turf despite 100 deg temps...would hope for cooler this time and would expect Curlin to show up, he's the world's leading horse, be a shame if he doesn't suit up for it, a shame for racing indeed.....he loses nothing if he doesn't handle track, his value is set--there's no reason for his absence and Santa Anita deserves no less than the best, after all it's "The Great Race Place"! If Curlin, Big Brown, Zenyatta, "Duke" and "Henry"  from Europe, Col John/Mambo In Seattle, Go Between/Well Armed, Commentator--if they all attend, then I like Zenyatta to blow by the pace and win it all....but for now, I'm sticking with my Derby Exacta of Brownie and The Colonel, two classy three year olds---and I can't wait!

Well Armed avoided the dreaded Dubai bounce in capturing the San Diego Handicap in track record time (1 1/16).  2-3 weeks later ZENYATTA bests this time. This puts her pretty close to this group and I would encourage anyone to find a better closing 1/8 on the synthetics.  For a moment I thought I was watching Silky Sullivan.  Well Armed also put away Heatseeker 2x this year.  I love the Tiznow gelding on the lead and had Gryder moved a little sooner he would have won the Pacific Classic at 8-1.  I think they slowed him down to get the extra quarter which caused a 1:12 second log jam.  Go Between had to work a bit but had plenty left in the tank. Well Armed performance in Dubai still puts Culin 8 lengths in front of him.  Not sure where Georgie Boy went...love Kathy Walsh and that horse loved Santa Anita.

I also was at Santa Anita in 03 and remember some huge longshot winning the Breeder's Cup Classic.  "A" something.  LIT up the tote board.  Best Breeder's Cup Classic...Hollywood Park...Ferdinand and Alysheba.  "The two derby winners hit the wire together!"  Personal Ensign and Winning Colors Distaff was also pretty special.  Man the grey almost got there.  

I was at the very first BC in 1984

at Hollywood Park, then I went to the first one held at SA in 1986 and went to the one at Churchill in 1988 and saw both the Ferdinand and Alysheba race and the Winning Colors and Personal Ensign race.  Both were incredible!

Whoops wrong decade.  Arcangues Lit up the toteboard in 1993.  Does anyone remember Lure?  Back to back BC Turf Miler and probably one of the best middle distance horses either side of the Atlantic ever.  

1987...Ferdinand, Alysheba, and Skywalker...3 Breeder's Cup Classic winners in 1 race.  Man where did those days go?

I just can't see Casino Drive winning the BCC off of just two starts,the last being The Peter Pan. It would take the training job of the century.I don't care how many hours a day they walk him around the backside it's just too much to ask against such a talented and deep field.

hey, clay, I was just bustin' your chops ;-) plus as a gal it gave me a chance to name some of the "girls" who could best the boys in "the bigs"!

Thanks, Joan, I'm a little concerned CD is coming Oct.1 so I'll dash out to go find the article...win the BC in your 3rd start?!?

Householder and others wondering about Georgie Boy, once a promising horse on the KY Derby trail--

After pulling a back muscle 4/1/08 while working out in prep for the Santa Anita Derby, trainer Kathy Walsh, after a battery of tests, reported no surgery indicated. Took a conservative approach to bringing him back, and then he jogged one lap around the main track at Hollywood Park on 06/06/08, Kathy saying he looked great after, and there has not been a reported sighting of this CAl-bred since.

Maybe Jason can place one of Blood-Horse's West Coast operatives on the case?

Frustrating thing about this business-- trying to keep up to speed on those out of the limelight. Never did find out what happened to a horse foaled in 2001 and raced extensively, Wheaty (o/o Wheatly Special by Wheatly Hall)-- wanted to get him in the barn as an eventer prospect, but he dropped off the map after his last start. Hope he didn't end up in Canada or Mexico-- the slaughter house-- truly the darkest side of racing.

We sometimes seem to forget how much luck and good fortune play into racing.  So many have said this group of 3 year olds lack the talent of years past but in truth its just been a series of injuries that have kept many on the sidelines.  Georgie Boy and War Pass were both very talented horses that had injury take them off the track and there have been others that have had problems too.  Smooth Air is a very talented horse that has had to overcome foot problems and the list good go on and on.  Some of the very best 3 year olds have just not had the good fortune of previous years but to suggest this is just a poor crop of 3 year olds does not really look into what has happend to some of the possible superstar 3 year olds this season.

It would have been interesting if War Pass could have made it to the Classics and put some Quality front end speed into the mix.

Wow Draynay what a roundabout way of saying the competition just hasn't been there for this years 3 yr. olds.

You are correct though when you point out there might have been some possible superstars that weren't around on the track. The problem with your logic is that when judging anything you can only judge by results of who or what showed up. The unknown or in this case the unraced or little raced doesn't factor into the final result. You can't count what wasn't there. There are injuries every year so in that respect this class is no different. It's just been weak to this point and times running out on the year.

J,

Can't wait to see your blog on the U.K. Derby. When is it due?

Joan Cowin,

How in the world do you compare Casino Drive with Citation?

Casino Drive if he runs in the Classic will have only 10% of the number of races Citation had at the end of his 3 yr old campaign

and 11% of the wins if he pulls it off.

Draynot you missed the whole point and I expected nothing less from you.

Remember the best horse in the world is a 3 year old so I would say this crop is pretty damn good.  Wait until the school year ends then hand out the grades.

Schabelli,

CD reminds me of having the tenacity that those horses had.

Was also wondering if anyone has heard anything lately about bob black jack, would have loved to see that horse at the B.C. in one of the sprint races, maybe even the mile. After all he did set a world record this past spring and was was looking good in the derby before he ran out of gas. I wonder if they hurt that horse by running him at that distance.

MikeM:

Casino Drive certainly has the Skills to win it,it's just too bad that he won't prep in the Goodwood as originally planned..Oh,well!..But he'll definitely be as fit as possible,considering how tenacious they train horses in Japan.Somewhat similar to the Europeans and their training "races"..Agreed this being his 3rd lifetime start is not the most conventional way going into the Classic against very good horses,but HE WILL be the Freshest in the field,while the others have had pretty hard campaigns..And he'll absolutely love the distance..All I'm saying is that I expect a BIG race from him come BCC time.They're leading him over here for a reason,and they've been pointing for this race since his purchase(along with the Belmont),according to his Peeps'.

Draynay:

So now BB is the "best horse in the world"?  WOW!.. I think that title belongs to the reigning HOTY,Dubai Classic winner,never been out of the money,Dances every dance horse by the name of...ummm,Curlin!...Please,stop..just STOP!

Hossierdaddy--

Maybe while Jason is out looking for Georgie Boy on the West Coast he can add Bob Black Jack to the list of "where are they now": a Sprinter started in the KY Derby and running nicely on the backstretch until cashing it in in the stretch and finishing some 32 lengths behind in 16th as I recall, according to Trainer James Kasparoff he suffered a minor (his word was I believe "superficial") leg cut, and was being pointed to starts at Hollywood Park post-Derby. Never heard word one about him again.

Always labeled an "honest horse", maybe the KY Derby experience broke his spirit? Wouldn't be the first time a horse tanked after an experience like Bob Black Jack's in the Derby. Would be particularly sad in his case, seeing how he always looked the part of being an outstanding sprint candidate. Hard to resist the Derby spotlight when you got sufficient graded earnings, I suppose.

Draynay the best horse in the world a 3yr old......what? ok BB might be the best 3yr old in North America..but the whole wide world wow what a statment,do you actually follow any other horse racing UK,Australia and Hong Kong lets see,GOOD BA BA,THE DUKE,HENRY,ZARKAVA,,Ok he might maybe the best 3yr old just maybe lets see what happens without Mr Dutrow and a steroid free BC

Georgie Boy is on the "worktab" again.  He recently went 1/2 mile in 48 and change.

AJ - You should check again.  Curlin went 104 in the MOW, 112 in the Woodward.  Perhaps there is a typo?  

Casino Drive is going to prep in an allowance race before the Classic.

Although it doesn't surprise me you didn't comprehend what I really said Draynay take off the blinkers.

Wait till the school year ends then hand out the grades? Here's what I said "It's just been weak to this point and times running out on the year". I DID say I'd wait till the end of the year!! However to this point I am very disappointed in the lack of quality competition in this years class overall. That is what I have been saying consistently, TO THIS POINT. That has never meant there wasn't time to salvage some respect for this class as 3 yr. olds but time is running out for the year.

I'm with draynot on this one. The 3 yr olds as a whole have been very dissapointing so far this year.

As for Big Brown being the best horse in the world, not in my book. Furthermore, even if he was draynay that has nothing to do with the class as a whole. The Cleveland Indians have the best pitcher in the game this year but as a whole the team stinks. The sum of the whole of this years 3 yr olds has not been anything approaching special.

SlewEmAll,

We might see CD race in a race as a prep for the BCC.  NTRA reported that the Japan Racing Assoc stated that when he arrives here OCT 1st they are looking to prep him in an allowance race to get him ready.  I really was wanting the Goodwood too, just to shut some of these people up but I guess I have the BCC that will show em!  Like I said earlier, I want everyone to bet on the "Favorites" like they always do and I will be there on PAYDAY when CASINO DRIVE cashes in.  

Regarding Zenyatta-I hope she runs in the Distaff, because I want to see Ginger Punch clean her clock!

Last year you could brag about Street Sense, Hard Spun, Curlin and Any Given Saturday.

This year you could brag about Big Brown, Colonel John, Pyro, Visionaire and Smooth Air.

Which year was better this or last I think you could make an argument for either one.  I guess we will have to wait until after the BC.

RE: Casino Drive

If they give him a prep then I agree he will be a contender. If not, I would pass even if they said they trained him on the slopes of Mt. Fuji. Off the topic but it will be interesting to see how Mambo In Seattle fares in the JCGC.

TO GINGER BOY:

GINGER PUNCH "CLEANING ZENYATTA'S CLOCK". YOU MEAN LIKE GINGER P. DID BACK IN THE APPLE BLOSSOM,LOL?

YOU'VE GOT TO BE JOKING!!!!!!!!

Can anyone tell me why Lure never captured HOY honors?  I guess it is all about the dirt.  Kathy Walsh...what a trooper has anyone ever been to Grant's Pass?  I think it is one of the remaining "bull rings" (1/2 mile track).  Nice to see her in the headlines after stints at Long Achers and the midwest.  Ferdinand...a horse that is often left off the list of greats.  Talk about a terrible ending.  Sad, Sad, Sad, Sad...

Lady's Secret and Winning Colors gave the boys fits.  But come Breeder's Cup time they found the right spot.  In fact I think Lady's Secret was HOY coming out of the Distaff (I may be wrong).  Zenyatta's trainer is doing the right thing.  

Lady's Secret...1986 wins 8 grade 1's, four against the best males, and goes 10 for 15 (wins) that year.  In ever a filly/mare should have entertained the Classic...I remember a very tiny horse on the front end (1000 lbs max?)  What's Zenyatta 17-18 hands...she looks like a boy!  And her closing 1/8 mile on synthetics wow!  In the Hirsch at Del Mar she stopped, looked at her rival mid stretch, and then took off again.  I don't see any girls beating her although she needs to prep at Oak Tree somewhere prior to the BC Distaff.  

Monica V

Gives us a first hand account of Lady's Secret's Distaff at Santa Anita.  I You Tubed it.  WOW!  She set the pace at 46 1/5, 1:10, and 134 2/5.  It looked like no one ever got within 5 lengths of her.  Pat Day's finest hour.  I may just skip the Breeder's Cup and You Tube all 15 of her 1986 races.  

I love all of the talk about the fillies!  Lady's Secret is probably my second favortie horse (with her pop my first). Yes she beat the boys, as have several other top fillies.....but...The BC Classic is a whole different bowl of soup.  Lady's Secret never beat a field of boys that included 10 future Million Dollar earners as Tiznow did (Twice).  The contrasting styles of these great horses, Commentator on the lead, Well Armed,Big Brown and Colonel John stalking and Go Between, and Curlin and others closing is just too much.  Zenyatta could train to compete against one or two of these horses and styles, but not 10 or 12 of them.  This race is the best of the best and its winners are truly champions!  

    Zenyatta will have her hands full in the Lady's Classic (that sounds like a bowling league to me!!!) Some of the contenders have been mentioned...but I would add, don't forget about Tough Tiz's Sis....watch the replay of the Ruffian if you have any doubts that she is peaking right now!

As for the greatest fields of the BC Classics...I like these two Tiznow wins against the likes of:

Fusaichi Pegasus           $1.9M

Giant's Causeway           $2.0M

Albert the Great           $3.0M

Captian Steve              $6.8M

Lemon Drop Kid             $3.2M

Cat Thief (previous winner)$3.9M

Golden Missile             $2.1M

Vision and Verse           $1.0M

Guided Tour                $1.9M

Pine Dance                 $340K

or

Orientate                  $1.7M

Guided Tour                $1.9M

Include                    $1.6M

Galileo                    $2.2M

Sakhee                     $3.2M

Macho Uno                  $1.8M

Gander                     $1.8M

Albert the Great           $3.0M

Aptitude                   $1.9M

A Fleets Dancer            $1.0M

Black Minnaloushe          490K

Not only is that two fields of big money winners, but it also sounds like a who's who of great young sires!

Ya just gotta love BC time of year!

Commentator's 14 length front end victory in the Mass Cup could be another wrench in BB's plans to take HOY honors.  Well Armed (loves Santa Anita), Commentator (Fastest Beyers), Big Brown (Derby winner likes grass too), on the lead...Go Between (Loves Santa Anita), Curlin (8 lengths ahead of this group based on Dubai), Col John on the back end (now likes dirt too!).  Who ever wins this deserves HOY honors.  My sense for some time is that Big Brown will retire without ever seeing California.  

Apple Blossom...this was only Zenyatta's 4th career start.  It looked to me like Ginger Punch set some easy fractions as the heavy favorite (1:12) and then folded like a lawn chair.  This put Zenyatta in front of Ginger Punch by 8-9 lengths.  I can only hope Ginger Punch has improved since then because Zenyatta's last 4 since the Apple Blossom have been pretty fun to watch.  I have a feeling that we will be watching the Grade 2 Zenyatta stakes for Fillies and Mares in a few years.  

Commentator by 12 'in hand', now what were we saying about Big Brown? Nick wasn't saying for sure, was playing kind of coy, Farmer was all in from what I could tell. Bet if the old guy is okay he'll be there, man I hope so.

Commentator cannot/will not get those easy fractions against The Classic field! although he is Precisionist fast/Precisionist good that's not nearly good enough to win this years Classic! I see him taking some $$$ and that's good for me and ny Big Brown/Col John exacta! To tell you the truth, I was impressed with The Super Derby winner...he's always had quality and he looked REAL GOOD today, and I remember when Tiznow/Sunday Silence looked so good in Sup Derby...I mean, he closed into a soft pace/rated well in traffic/burst to the lead with authority vs much tougher than in Mass Cap.....now THAT GUY looks like a Breeders Cup horse.....and I think this year has some real good 3y/olds! Big Brown is huge/Col John's for real and there's many more...

Commentator is indeed freaky good, but understand when a horse like that is allowed to go easy throughout and on/near the pace--then he's gonna get high #'s---at 1 1/4 vs the best of them he's very likely to engage SOONER/with more to do and I just think he's a "bet-against"---maybe on the old SA track (dirt) he gets 1 1/4 but vs these I think not even then--he reminds me of Congaree, or Precisionist---horses that probably won't get it done vs the best at 1 1/4...and although I'm against running fillies v males at 1 1/4, why not try the filly, after all she's BIGGER by far than any of the males, and I defy anyone to look at her Ramona and say they've seen a better stretch move anywhere this year, I mean it just looks like she can run by them all, she has that look--like Forego in the stretch! And thats not taking away anything from the great Ginger Punch/Hystericalady/and those good 3y/olds...but oh...Zenyatta! Huge stretch moves that look like she's on another planet--they've ducked her and for good reason---it would be a huge upset if she lost The Ladies Classic....the thing is, if they run her in The Breeders Cup Classic she might just go off favored, and THAT'S why she needs to go---D Wayne understood that and he knew when to try the boys---I think if Lukas has her she goes in The Classic....for that matter if she's MINE, she also goes!!

Col John gets the distance! Also if you watch The Travers he gets run up on---either that or swerving out then in caused him to cross rear legs--thus causing him to lose action for one stride/losing much momentum....horse regathers and engages Mambo In Seattle/drawing off from the rest of the field---a real big race regardless of time/margin etc....he GETS 1 1/4 and I hope he GETS GoGo Gomez, cuz I know he's got Well Armed too and maybe even more...but John looks like the right one for him...he'll get plenty of middle moves to set up his closing charge/hope he engages Big Brown so I can see what I thought I would see in The Derby: two very talented 3y/olds!

Correction race caller said 12 it was actually 14. Read the blog by Steve, the old guys winning margins have been impressive, right he may not get the splits or the distance but that's why they still run em, nothing is a given. He looked to me that he was still pulling away and running easy at the end.  Col John maybe but then again I think about the Swaps. BB gets in a jam like the Belmont, what happens? Has he matured enough to handle that kind of situation? DN talks about his Derby run from the 20 hole, actually that was ideal for the colt, no trouble no messes no mental challenge, same in the Preakness. The Euros that come over, just too many factors so will wait and see who is in.

You are right about BB's post position in the Derby. Better outside than inside for a horse with tactacle speed.

Nay,

I wouldn't even begin to compare the five you listed this year with the four from the previous year.

Street Sense got beat by Hard Spun and Curlin. Hard Spun got beaten by Street Sense and Curlin. Curlin got beaten by Street Sense and Hard Spun. Each of those 3 were superior at 3 to any of those you mentioned from this years class. Any Given Saturday on his best could give those 3 fits.

Big Brown (beaten by an allowance and maiden horse in his biggest race ever), Colonel John, Pyro, Visionaire, and Smooth Air have been beaten consistently all year by far less than last years 3 yr olds were.

To this point no comparison in the class of the two groups. Tick tock times running out. Maybe one of them can salvage some pride but not the class as a whole.

If all of the above happens; Curlin goes to the BC, Zenyatta runs the classic instead of the Distaff, and Commentator runs well in the Mass H. (which he did & won easily) then thoes would be my top three.. followed by Mambo in Seattle who is a great closer then BB because honestly, I do not believe that his feet will hold up or that he's the 'amazing' horse everyone says he is. He will have more competition in this field then he has ever faced and won't stand up. Plus throw Casino Drive in the mix with Pyro, C.John, and Go Between & this is is going to be the most exciting lineup in years. Stick with the best: Curlin & Zenyatta (if she runs the classic) all the way

Talk about running against nobody,Commentator ran against absolutly nobody. He would never get that trip in The BCC and Nick Zito should stay away from the BCC and opt for the BCM.

BIGHORSEFAN.

The Swaps is an interesting race.  I still remember Sunday Silence stopping in mid stretch at 1/5 although he did get beat by Prized who came back to take the BC Turf as a 3 year old.  I think they are all just a little tired from the Triple Crown at that point in the year.  I threw Col John's performance in the Swaps out.  

Davisondad...Tiznow's second Breeder's Cup win against the Arc Winner Sakhee puts him in another league with the all time greats.  I really like his boy Well Armed this year.  He gets little respect at the windows but always runs well.  He beat Heatseeker 2x this year and loves the synthetics.  With the absense of Curin look for him to move up.

The ladies...I loved Bayakoa.  She takes 8 of 9 graded races at age 5, picks up back to back BC Distaff wins, and at times was asked to carry as much as 127 pounds.  The ladies are consistent.  I was also there for her disappointing run against the boys in the Santa Anita Handicap.  Zenyatta's trainer is doing it right.

I'm gonna do everyone a favor and give you the trifecta in the B.C. Classic, you ready.................Box Colonel John, Go Between and Commentator. I know this goes against logical thinking however I think Curlin isn't the horse he was at the end of last year and also toss B.B. aka 'Splotchy' the big dissapointment. I know it doesn't look right however when it comes in the number$ could be substantial?!?!?!?!? By the way don't thank me now!

I have only ever seen Henrythenavigator win races. He has an unbelievable crusing speed and a punishing finish. He is my pick for BC, i have a lot of respect for Curlin but its the navigator to plot his course straight to the wire !!!

 All in all this comes down to ALOT of  speculating no matter who you end up going with. I, myself won't set in stone any picks until we know for sure who will make it to the big dance. I respect [most] of everyone's opinions save for a couple here and there. Now here are a few opinions of my own.

Draynay- But for a few odds and ins I agree with you about the 3 year olds, having said that BB still has to prove that he is the best in the world at this point in time, and he is very capable. But Curlin still holds that place which may very well change at year's end.

Draynot and Schabelli- Don't forget that the 3 year olds that improve as they mature and some of the so called "weak ones" end up becoming giant slayers.

Slew.em.all- I disagree with you about Zenyatta and I beleive that having the BC 2 year old turf adds well needed international competitive flavor. But I do agree with you about Casino Drive and on racing surfaces. Dirt horses to dirt and turf horses to turf, and why not take the time to put in the money and effort on improving the quality of dirt surfaces. But I reckon we both will have to deal with synthetic for now.

Schabelli, Mike S and Mike M- Casino Drive is pure class, his breeding second to none, and his best has yet to be unleashed. Class, more than not, prevales regardless of how demanding the race might be. And I agree with Joan Cowin and Slew.em.all that CD is fresh and ready for a good performance.

Mike M.- BB and Commentator ARE front end class.

Householder and Matthew W.- Love your Zenyatta facts.

ZM- I agree with you that Zenyatta will be HOY with a win in the Distaff or [Classic] if BB or Curlin turns up performing poorly.

Slew.em.all, Fast Eddie, and mostly, you, GingerBoy- Zenyatta has already beat last years Distaff winner, Ginger Punch, as well as other top fillies and mares plus she is more phyically imposing with equal or better times than most any of the boys. Bottom line- She deserves her shot at the Classic.

Mike Relva- THANKS! I beleive that GingerBoy's mental clock must be broken.

Donna- I've always liked Pyro also and providing he likes the surface, will be a factor if he comes back into form.

I beleive that Commentator and BB will bring to much conflict to each other setting the race up for someone like Curlin, Casino Drive, even Go Between or one of the deep closers such as Pyro and none better than Zenyatta. But who knows until, like I said at first, we know for sure who makes it in.

None of us really do. We all just like to do alot of speculating. That's the fun thing to do in this Sport of Kings.

I think Lure dusted Arazi in his second BC mile turf win in 1:32 and change (new course record) and he NEVER gets HOY honors!  What a shame.  With the BC Classic this wide open, if BB, Culin, Go Between, or Commentator fails to win, it better go to ZENTATTA and not a third place finisher or worst yet, a horse that does not show up.  She has danced every dance and is going to be tough to bet against at Santa Anita.  

Horsewld- Thanks for the lesson on breeding and class but that means nothing for such a lightly raced horse when going up against the quality field he is likly to face in the BCC. He has raced twice in a year,a maiden race in Japan and a mediocre stakes in the U.S. He is a nice horse but is really up against it against the likes of Curlin and BB, not to mention CJ,Europians etc.

Never said BB and Commentator where not classy speed. I just don't think either can win the BCC if they both run. At least that's what I meant to say.

Mike M  You're welcome for the lesson. Casino Drive has the same chance winning the Classic in his few starts as Curlin did winning the Preakness in his few starts.  While not comparing races you can compare circumstances. He has class in his favor on turning in a sharp performance.

In your blog you did make it sound as if front end speed were missing, that's why I stated BB and Commentator. And I very much agree with you that if they both run they will most likely run each other out of the race. Let's just see who shows up to start with.

Horsewld I couldn't disagree with you more. Curlin did it against three year olds. Casino Drive will have to do it against the best horses in the world which include mature 3 yos and older horses. Curlin was way more seasoned and battle tested by the time he got to the Preakness. It's like comparing apples to oranges. That being said he has a punchers chance in the Classic because after all, it is horse racing.

MikeM-Like I said, wasn't comparing races and that's my whole point about class. Class tends to prevale in such circumstances. Alot of horses are not supossed to do well or win in such cases but end up doing so because of their class and tenacity. CD's chance is very well cased. I would say more than just a puncher's chance. {laughing} We'll just have to agree to disagree about Casino Drive and his chances. I'm more interested in if he even shows up or who shows up for that matter.

Horsewld I agree with you about class. Class is everything...the BCC is all class! Will have to see who is the classiest Mike M! You need to listen to horsewld you may learn a thing or two.

Corey I would like to here YOUR opinion. Do you have one or do you just bite off of others? In relationship to the other possible contenders his "class" will not get him home. We will see how much class he has after he faces this bunch and gets his heart broken.

mike m if you really want to hear my opion ill give it to you- class more times than not will get you home and its foolish to think otherwise. the only one whose heart is going to be broken come breeders cup time is yours

Corey-Thanks for the backup when it comes to the class of a horse performing well in a big race. Some people, you'll never get that through to. So let's all just wait and see who's heart will end up breaking come BC day. I'm sure that all of our hearts will end up broken at some point throughout the day more so than that of any horse including that one horse........oh yes Casino Drive.

Saturday September 27th "The Great Race Place."

Clement L Hirsch Turf Championship (Grade 1)

RED GIANT/SPING HOUSE

The Lady Secret Stakes (Grade 1)

ZENTATTA ("Simply Poetry in motion").

The Ancient Title Stakes (Grade 1)

STEET BOSS (Synthetic Monster...look for new track record)

The Oak Leaf Stakes (Grade 1)

WILL O WAY

The Yellow Ribbon Stakes (Grade 1)

BLACK MAMBA

The Goodwood Stakes (Grade 1)

WELL ARMED (Gets little respect, ultra consistent)

Ok let me see if i understand.CD is going to win because he is classier than Curlin,BB,Commentator,CJ,Mambo in Seattle etc etc.Class is just part of the equation. My point is that he has little chance of winning THAT race off of 2 races in a year and one allowance prep. If he runs and the field includes the above horses(I know I have left out other worthy challengers)he will not hit the board.

MikeM and J- never said that CD will win the race, just that, if he shows, he is capable of putting in a good performance based on his class.  Just because he has not raced does not mean that he hasn't matured greatly also. I just wouldn't throw him out because I, myself, as well as many others, just plain like the horse because of class, breeding, or whatever reason. Having said that, there are others I like as well like Curlin and Zenyatta to name just a couple. But will they even show up. That is the question as a whole. Who's in and who's not?

WHEN IN DOUBT,.. GO BETWEEN the synthetic signs and bet with clout! ;)

Well folks looks like Casino just got his 4th win. This goes out to all you Casino Drive doubters......  TOLD YA SO!

See you at the Classic in the Winners Circle with Casino Drive.

CD beat nothing and it is a far cry from who he will face in the BCC, depending who show's up of course.