AWESOME PRE-ENTRIES, THE FIELDS LOOK TO BE COMPETITIVE. THE CLASSIC IS DEEEEEP. THE THREE EUROPEANS,AMERICAN BORN-JAPANESE TRAIN CASINO DRIVE AND CURLIN MAKE IT AN AWESOME CLASSIC. THE MARATHON IS DEFINETLY AN EXCITING RACE TOO WATCH. EVERY RACE IS EXCITING. CAN'T WAIT FOR THAT SATURDAY TO ARRIVE!!!

Not surprised yet grateful Better Talk Now's work Monday on the Tapeta at Fair Hill (breezing 6 f in 1:14) more than convinced HG Motion and connections to enter him in the Turf. If he makes it to the BC starting gate this will be No. 48 in a distinguished career, joining Kona Gold and Perfect Drift as the only 5-time BC starters. He's been close this year, including a 3rd to Red Rocks and some horse named Curlin at Belmont back in July.

If HG Motion didn't think Better Talk Now didn't have a great shot at finding the BC winner's circle again, he wouldn't be shipping to the Left Coast, period. Marvelous and durable throw-back style of horse who still fires and clearly loves his job and does it well.

Yeah, Jason, no doubt-- it's Christmas, Thanksgiving and with apologies to HG Motion and my UK friends, the 4th of July, all rolled into one.

Jason,

It's going to take me a while to give my picks. To me this is like Christmas and my birthday combined for 20 years. Never had this many presents to open in all those years.

Zenyatta seems to have scared a few off. My other pick is Stardom Bound of course. I may have a longshot in that race too. Will get back with the rest of them. Interested to see your picks. I have a big project so early part of the week is out for me at the track. Will watch the Works from home.

If Well Armed and Colonel John run in the classic, will they need to be coupled given they are both owned by Winstar Farms and trained by Eoin Harty?  

Christmas morning will come when the fields are set, and New Year's will be the weekend of racing!

The races with the biggest upset potential (given the last five years results) are the Juvenile, Turf Mile, Dirt Mile, Turf Classic, and F&M Turf. The rest should fall under odds of 5:1.

Smooth air is about the only one, maybe pyro, who doesn't seem to be in the same class as the others, not to knock them...I think Tiago's due the big one, but I felt like that for Sun King his whole career, Casino Drive has class and talent, I think Curlin's the best, I love anything out of Tiznow, I respect the other guys...so I'll probably be OK as long as it's a good race, I won't bet short odds, so, hmmm, for betting...

Zenyatta, Bear Now, Ginger Punch for the Distaff or Mare & Filly Classic, I refuse to be insulted as a woman and have my beloved Mares & Fillies called "Ladies" unless and until the Classic is called "Gentlemens".

Indyanne, Indian Blessing, Dearest tricksi

Delightful Kiss, Spring House, ??? Zappa or Big Booster...if this is where casino drive ends up, then him on class alone.

Emmy darling, renda, Evita Argentina (but she may not blossom until next year)

Stardom bound, Sky diva

Wait Awhile, Dynaforce, Forever Together

Idiot Proof;Heros Reward; Get Funky;

Well Armed, Pyro, Surf Cat

Thornsong, precious kitten, awesome gem in no particular order.

I love 'em all in the sprint, but push to shove? Midnight Lute if healthy, black seventeen.

Red Giant if he's ready, Better talk Now 'cause I love 'em, Dancing Forever on heart.

So this is comfirmation that Well Armed is going into the Classic?  If nothing else this horse should get the "Come Back" of the year award.  I hope someone can do a little expose on this horse because it really is a "feel good" story.

Where has Go Between been?  He's been MIA since the Pacific Classic Aug.24th.  This horse could have used a prep.

Like Stardom Bound AND C S Silk in filly-juvy....Like Curlin over Tiago in Classic....like Fatal Bullet over Street Boss/Lewis Micheal in Sprint...Zenyatta of corse....And won't throw out Better Talk Now from Turf Classic...Well Armed over Lewis Michael in Dirt Mile....and Street Hero in with a punter's shot in the 2yo Colts at 10-1....just some real good horses this year! A little light in the Mile (Turf).....ok A LOT light in the mile! Well Armed should vanquish his foes at, say, 2-1 which I'll take! Fatal Bullet maybe 8-1...I'll pounce! Tiago will be 12-1 and I'll hit that under Curlin! C S Silk will be 5-1 and I'll hit that and box with Stardom Bound...Lewis Michael a "must use" horse whichever race he runs in....I'll take the 10-1 on Street Hero as I think he's coming around...he's talented/well bred/on the improve/comes off big win (at the track)...yeah, I'll hit that at 10-1....

JasonS,

No big deal, but, just curious, why you left Duke of Marmalade off when you mentioned the Europeans in the Classic?

Maybe just oversight?  I think the Duke has at least as good of shot as Henry and probably Ravens Pass as well.  

What are your immediate thoughts on the 3 Euro's in the Classic assuming they go?

HI JASON:

MY PICS ARE: STARDOM BOUND,ZENYATTA OF COURSE,CAS. DRIVE TO WIN.

I can't get enough of Lewis Michael at 10 to 1.  in the Dirt ( lol ) mile.

Wow! Matthew, you are a hard man to please.  Kip Deville is the reigning champion and Goldikova maybe the best miler in Europe outside of Zarkava or possibly Raven's Pass who is also in this race, possibly.  Then there is Whatsthescript who I think has a big time shot and has proven double tough down the stretch. U.S. Ranger is no slouch either, not to mention, War Monger in good form and possibly Ventura ( if Frankel so chooses ) and a speedy Daytona on the firm with Thorn Song.  

Jeez, Louise I can't wait ( I think the race is stacked ).  Most every race in the BC is stacked as well.  I am loving the wagering possibilities.

Lilly my bad! I didn't think it was so Euro Tough as I'm a bit out of the loop over there---but if that's the case then it's Euros all the way as I'm NOT impressed with Kip/or the Sadler horse! But the mile is almost always the best race! Instead, it looks like The Dirt Mile came up strong! My Pal Charlie, Lewis Michael, Well Armed, Rebellion AND Slews Tiznow---are all real nice horses--Oh, and Mast Track and Surf Cat are solid! I love My Pal Charlie at 8-1 odds! I just might box him with the other 3yo Two Step Salsa! Can't throw out Albertus Maximus, who seems to like the two-turn mile! Wow! What a race! Yes, Lilly, it looks like a real nice Cup this year! Thanks for the heads up!

what happened to COMENTATOR?

his form this year was as good or

better than any of this years big

name horses.

it speaks volumes for artificial

surfaces.

what a shame.

I'm surprized to see Sealy Hill in the entries. I thought they were retiring her after her last start. Oh well if she shows up with her game face on it will be interesting. The Classic sounds like it's shaping up nicely.

Wanda, good catch on Sealy Hill. That race is just so loaded, any idea how she's doing?

Oh by the way I see they reopened the bids for Curlin. Still think we should hold out for Stardom Bound. Hope Brad didn't tout you off of our partnership. He likes to give me a hard time, mistakenly thinks it keeps me humble.

I have a long shot in that race with Stardom Bound, not sure if I'm ready to give it out yet. Brad said he has the same one. I'm still thinking.

I think Zenyatta scared them all away.  Indian Blessing probably won't go in the Sprint, think Bob'll go with Midnight Lute if he really is healthy. I'm taking my time with my picks, Eh? (Hey am I ready to come to the North country?)But, of course I won't disclose them all.

YEAH, WHAT HAPPENED TO COMMENTATOR??

It's like you're in a candy store and you have no idea where to start picking.

I'm disappointed that I won't be able to see Zenyatta (and maybe Indian Blessing) run on Breeders' Cup Day 1. At least I got to see her whoop Hystericalady in the Lady's Secret. Too bad Tough Tiz's Sis retired, since she was the only horse to give Z fits.

I will save all of my money for the Classic(most of it anyway).It looks to me that Curlin loves the surface.I can't remember if I have ever seen a horse work better going into a race. I feel the race will be over at the 3/8 pole.

I'm surprised to see Pyro pre-entered. I thought Steve Assmussen swore never to run Pyro on synthetics again... oh well, should be a very good race!

Hi from a reader from Ireland who is flying to L.A. tomorrow for a two week vacation and really looking forward to my first Breeders Cup and first visit to Santa Anita.  I have been going through the American form online for the last few days and here are a few early thoughts:

Juv Fillies Turf; The three Europeans here look opposable. Consequence caught my eye as one who might improve in what is likely to be bigger test of stamina.

Juv Fillies; Pursuit of Glory was third in a Group 1 on fast ground at Newmarket and had previously won a Maiden on a pollytrack in Ireland. Whether she will stay a fast-run mile is another thing.

F&M Turf; Halfway to Heaven is one to consider here.  She is very game and consistent and goes on fast ground.  Goldikova might be better with some ease in the ground. Folk Opera will be poor value. Visit might go well at a big price.  Forever Together is one to beat of the home brigage I think.

Ladies Classic; Zenyatta looks worth a good punt here at anything near even money.  Music Note would be my next best.

Marathon; Sixties Icon is on my shortlist of three along with Delightful Kiss and Zappa. I can't see King of Rome featuring.

Turf Sprint; Have to do a bit more work on this but Only Answer won't be winning anyway.

Dirt Mile;  Lord Admiral is fairly exposed and not good enough.  Well Armed will be hard to beat here.

Mile; I like Kip Deville in this. An outsider worth a look is US Ranger.  He's untried beyond 7f but goes on fast ground has some ability if he's in the mood.  But you'd need big odds.

Juvenile;  Bushranger will be fancied here but he possibly has stamina questions to answer.  I'll be backing America here with three on my shortlist - Street Hero, Coronet of a Baron, and Believe in Hope.

Juvenile Turf; I won't be backing Westphalia in this. Donativum might be worth a look at a big price, if it runs.  He will go on the fast ground and takes a keen hold in his races so should be suited by the faster early pace over there.  I've yet to study the rest of the field.

Sprint; I like Cost of Freedom abd Street Boss would be my number two pick.

Turf; Grand Couturier and Red Rocks stand out for me.  Soldier of Fortune has much better form than Red Rocks in Europe so must have a great chance.  He was given a summer break and trained for an Autumn campaign. I just wonder if he will have the toe to cope with a tight turning track and fast ground?  I wouldn't put you off backing him though.  Conduit isn't out of it. He stays the trip well and has form on fast ground.  I don't like Eagle Mountain (better over shorter) or Winchester (bit to find on form).  Red Rock Canyon will have a pacemaker role for Soldier of Fortune.

Classic; Henrythenavigator should have run in the turf mile I think.  I'm not sure he'll stay a fast-run 1m2f.  Ravens Pass is more likely to get the trip and has a good chance, though that will be reflected in the price.  Funnily enough, I like Duke of Marmalade best of the Europeans at the likely odds.  There's probably a consensus that he is 'over the top' for the season but he ran a fine race in the Arc last time in a race that wasn't really run to suit him. A stiff 1m2f is perfect for him and he is very game.  Of the home team, Curlin stands out. I just backed him last night at 11/4.  Go Between looks next best of the American runners.  I don't think Well Armed will be good enough here, and both Casino Drive and Colonel John don't look in the same league as Curlin to me. They are two I would lay.  My two picks are Curlin and Duke of Marmalade.

Best of luck and, if you hear an Irish accent at Santa Anita on Friday or Saturday, say hello - it might be me!

Ross

Fabulous Strike is going to be Fabulous from the opening gun and leave everyone at the gate.

Music Note is going to run off and leave Zenytatta wondering what happend and Smooth Air is going to take advantage of a very slow pace and take the BC !!!

Like every year, Breeders Cup races are the hardest to handicap. I don't see no more than 2 favorites winning and as good as she has looked don't think Zenyatta is a lock! As for the turf races the post position draw is important especially in the Mile. The classic will be exciting because of the Euro horses and Curlin but that race really is lacking with any speed. Wish everyone the best in your picks and let's hope for 14 of the most exciting races ever.

 I agree with andy o. no COMENTATOR, what a shame, but then again Nick Zito is not sending any of his horses to Santa Anita.  

 C.S. SILK in the Juvinile Fillies all the way to the winners circle.

Jordan: Yea I made a phone call and lit a fire under those guys! I get most of the imfo on Woodbine from their weekly show on The Score. Since I'm thousands of miles from there it's the only way I keep up on stuff. I have watched other interviews with Mark Casse and he has stated in the past that she is a hard horse to train. It seems she decides if and when she will work or run. She can be a monster when she's on and she did run a nice race last time out. The winner got loose on the lead but walking away after the win picture, she didn't look 100%(the winner). I would guess that they are taking a shot that she'll like the turf in Cal and in a big field keep her covered up cause she tends to hang when she hits the front end.

Not bad Jordan but eh with a small e not a capital eh? If you come up north you got to get longjohns eh? And some really thick wool socks. Gray would be the best color or else you'll stand out like a tourist eh?

Wanda,

Actually I've been up that way. Spent a month up there one time and had a college friend from British Columbia, also one from Nova Scotia. I've been to Calgary, Quebec, Montreal etc. BC was really beautiful so was Banff. Was there another time in the summer when I was a little kid and mom had to go buy all of us California kids sweaters since we were freezing in July.

I knew you had a lot of pull, It was you who called the judge to clear the bid right? Now I know who to call if I get in trouble at the Derby, to heck with Captain Steve I'll go with Wanda.

You know, I admit I was very critical about how unentertaning this breeders cup was going to be before pre-entries. But now that they're out and looking at the form for all the BC Races, I've got chills! They're multiplying! lol.  Ross, I love the input about the Euro's and how you think they would handle the ground and turns. Can we get some more info on these horses from any of you across the pond that follow these races. Except for one race... in the Marathon (if you can call it that) Sixties Icon is gone!!!!!!!!

Ross: Thanks for the down low on the Euro's. I for one like to hear about horses I don't see on TV from people who are at the track. I'm also jealous that your heading down there. What about Folk Lore? IMO she looked a bit sore after her start at Woodbine.

I like your comments about the ones who like hard ground which is what they will get in Cal. That helps alot in a guys selections in the grass races.

Black17 can win if it rains the night before or its a wide open race

Sorry Ross didn't mean to confuse you. The filly I meant to ask about is Folk Opera NOT Folk Lore. I've got to stop listening to those voices in my head. Like Jordan says the BC can't come to soon enough cause apparently I'm mixing up horses from other years.(I'm joking about the voices or am I....?)

Edgar just made Col John a bit more interesting. Curlin is a monster but anything can happen in horse racing.

What is it with the vehemence of one or two people on here, makes eating that crow just a bit harder. State your picks love your horse but don't get in that sports blog slam mode.

Like to meet up with the guy who said Music Note will run away from Zenyatta, although I said anything can happen, it would take something drastic for Music Note to run away from Zenyatta, I'd bet him a grand on that. Man to man. She may get beat, that's horse racing but get run away from? She is predicted to be the biggest favorite on the day, along with Curlin. I think Stardom Bound might be included if they get a big Cal crowd. I'm holding off on my picks until the entries are final. Oh well back to the races I'm at now.

Wanda, I was going to mention it but figured you're so focused on winning the lottery and all the planning you and Jordan are doing.

Folklore was a nice filly. Lukss, hey he's back with two. Being the 25th anniversary it seems right that the winningest trainer should be here. too bad he broke the streak last year I guess.

One other thing Wanda, it's not IF you win the lottery it's WHEN and even if it's next year, we promise you a great time when you come here for the Breeders Cup.

If Jordy has his way you'll be running Stardom Bound in the Distaff or the Classic.

Hi Wanda

I know the feeling!  Yes, Folk Opera will have her supporters after Woodbine but I think some of the other Europeans have stonger claims.  For example, Halfway to Heaven's last five runs have come in Group 1 events (3 wins, 2 third placed efforts). Folk Opera has only contested one Group 1 in Europe and finished unplaced (admittedly on softer ground that she would have prefered).  Folk Opera also likes to dominate her races front the front and may not get away with that at Santa Anita. She's also had a fairly long season. Don't want to put anyone off, but I will be looking elsewhere in this one.

Anyway, I'm signing off here as I gotta get to bed as I fly to L.A. tomorrow morning.  Best of luck and maybe I will check in to see how you got on when I return to Ireland next month.

P.S. The link below will give you the current betting on all the Breeder's Cup events this side of the world.  We have loads of bookmakers here and 27 racecourses in Ireland - a country about the size of Wisconsin!  We love our racing!

www.oddschecker.com/.../breeders-cup

taubworld I don't think the rain affects the Pro-ride too much, maybe cools it off. We have that heat everyone was hoping wouldn't be here, not 100's but hot enough.

I'm predicting NO winners in the Dirt Mile. Since there is no Dirt.

Otherwise still working on the picks.

Wanda I always listen to the voices in my head, much more pertinent to say and much more reliable than a lot of the voices I read on here.

Stardombound is my surest lock of the day.  I'll jump all over at 2-1 or better.  Loves the track and her running style should set up nicely for a open length win.  Next weekend can't come soon enough.  Good luck to everyone!

There are three "sure shots" on this year's Breeder's Cup card.  They are Curlin in the Classic, Red Rocks in the Turf Classic and Zenyatta in the Distaff (still cant bring myself to calling a horse race Ladies Classic).  Pure Clan also looks like a very good thing in the F&M Turf while all other races are very prone to major upsets/long shots especially among the Juveniles.  

Ah the breeders cup-best time of the race year

Dont have all my picks but some unfinalized thoughts

F and M sprint-Intangaroo

Juv Fil tf-Consequence

F and m tf-Forever together and wait a while

mile-goldikova and us ranger

sprint-fatal bullet and street boss

thinking on others--

Jason, New to posting although I've gotten a kick out of reading for months.

Spoken like a true handicapper. Aren't we always trying to beat the favs. Don't want to be called chalkmen like some of the guys I've seen you write about. Call me crazy but I like Mast Track, I'm not even sure why. Also like the Euro's. I just don't think Zenyatta is going to be too beatable, but they all are I guess.

I hear you there. I may bet more than I probably should but still nothing better than a big score on just little bet. I can only imagine what odds I'd get if I stick with Mast Track, just don't think Bobby would part with $100g's if he didn't think he has a chance. Will put a few bucks on him just in case. The only one who's driven me crazier than him is Lukas, although I did have that Smarty Jones filly Be Smart, made a tidy little bundle on her at Saratoga (49-1). I may just put a couple bucks on her although it may be tough against Stardom Bound, never want to be compared to Battaglia god forbid. I think when he walks away from his spot there's a chalk outline of a body like at a crime scene.

Wow Jason do you really think you'll get 2-1 on Curlin? My bet is he'll be a terrible favorite, some are sayin 6/5 but I don't know. Mast Track huh, wow that guy is bold.

Hmmm would that be at an historic track? A trainer she's 'familiar' with had one running the other day, pretty long odds, she dismissed it and it made my exacta. Not sure if that's her. A few on there irk me.

It's possible but I think there will be a lot of 'fans' there who want to bet on Curlin for posterity, always seems to be that at the BC and the Derby, then if we have a horse going for the TC it happens at Belmont.  

You guys may be right, Frankel said he's sending him to the front and seeing how far he can go. If it's wet it seems to be more speed favoring.  Be Smart was my long shot, mostly because Jordy won a TON on her this summer, I stayed off of her and got bit again.

Street Boss has been an absolute monster on the So Cal synthetics for some time.  His style lends to traffic problems (which he seems to always overcomes) and I have seen him go 8 wide and still motor home.  He fits perfect in the annual BC Sprint Rodeo division.  

ZENYATTA...named after the Police's third album Zenyatta Mondatta...Giacomo...named after Sting's son...Tiago...Giacomo's 1/2 brother...has been known to work with Zentatta.  It all makes sense to me now!  Sherriffs, Moss, Smith...

You Tube the 2008 Bing Crosby at Del Mar.  "Here comes Street Boss in the middle of the track."  What is he...10 wide?  

"If you got your money on Zenyatta go to the Window!" "She may as well be out for a morning jog"

My Trevor Denman impersonation.

"I couldn't disagree with you more...I think Curlin and Red Rocks are very beatable in these spots."  jshandler

Right on!  May the California horses run 1-2-3.  

In BC races I almost always try to beat the favorite. In this years Classic I feel about Curlin as I did about Skip Aways BCC win.If he runs his race I don't see anyone beating him. Based on his last work it looks like Curlin LOVES the surface. In my opinion it also looks like it might actually move him up. 2-1 on curlin would be an absolute gift and I for one will not look a "gift horse" in the mouth. The race will be over @ the 3/8 pole.

jshandler:

Make sure you wear your hat on the 25th....you'll tipping it!

Of course you don't bet him to win at those low odds...but you do use him on top or near the top in all exotics. If he doesn't get any of your money in exotic bets, you're a loser.

Mast Track is the speed? That shows you just how little speed is in the race.  If he is allowed to post a 48.5 half mile this race could belong to anyone.  For those of you that choose to bet on Curlin I predict disaster. I am going to box 3 horses for the exacta and Curlin will not be one of them.  The Euro's are coming and have some very talented horses. This could be the year of the Euro.  And yes I think Music Note will get the jump on Zenyatta.

Wonder if anyone has heard for sure which race Indian Blessing is going in, or at least leaning towards?

That work of Red Giant had to p.o. Todd Pletcher, with Black Mamba picking him up. Maybe Sadler was expressing his disgust at not being able to run her due to the $300,000 supplement.

Well, well..look who is back...why it's "sour grapes" Draynay.

Go ahead, genius, bet all you got against Curlin. LOL

I see the contrarian is back. How many times does a guy have to get his head handed to him on a platter before he shuts up?

See he mellowed when somebody offered to back up their talk, unlike him.

Yes he is the speed of the race.

The only thing he said semi-reasonable is the Euro's, that should be the kiss of death.

Let's see, shall we match up Jason's picks and wins to date with his. Never saw DN make a pick before a race except when he jumped on the back of another handicappers pick.

We know you've hated Curlin from the getgo Draynay, he didn't screw up your fav, get over it.

Here are my picks:

I am not betting but if I were these would be my choices.

FMSprint: Indian Blessing Intangaroo

Sprint: Street Boss, Midnight Lute

Juvenile Turf: Bittel Road, Grand Adventure

Juvenile: Silent Valor, Midshipman

Juvenile Fillies Turf: C Karma, Laragh

Juvenile Fillies: Stardom Bound, C.S.Silk

FMTurf: Wait a While, Mauralakana

Turf: Soldier of Fortune, Red Giant

Classic: Curlin, Colonel John, Go Between, Raven's Pass

Ladies Classic: Zenyatta, Ginger Punch, Bear Now

Marathon: Fairbanks, Delightful Kiss

Dirt Mile: Well Armed, Surf Cat, Slew's Tiznow

Mile: Goldikova, Precious Kitten

Turf Sprint: Mr. Nightlinger, Slew's Tizzy, Idiot Proof

I agree with Saratoga AJ no way can you leave Curlin out. Like Jason's says he's not a lock but on form he's right there. In the Distaff there will be a legit pace(Music Note, Bear Now) so it really does set up for Zenyatta. Off her last start she can close even without fast splits on the front end. The one who bothers me is Stardom Bound. She ran pretty green last time out. She'll have to be more seasoned in the

Juvi Fillies but she does have a ton of talent.(sorry Jordan). I can see her getting beat because of a lack of seasoning. The Sprint is the one that's got me puzzled. I like Fatal Bullet cause he's coming around at the right time but so are several others hmm....

Wanda, I think she learned a whole lot in that last race. My longshot Be Smart has run green as well but I still plan to put a bet on her, she won me a bunch this summer. I kind of think they've all run a little less than professional and are all still learning at this point. Question is which one has had the best lessons and learned the most. The Works has the Juv Fillies on schedule for tonight, I'm interested to see what's up.

Zenyatta has everybody talking as much or more than Curlin. Interesting deal on the Classic is Johnny Murtagh choosing the Duke.

The Sprint, usually puzzling but am waiting to see who's in.

The chances we will see Curlin, Zenyatta, Indian Blessing ( filly mare sprint ), Goldikova ( Mile ), Stardom Bound, Bittel Road and Nightlinger, ALL win are zip ( they all stand to be favorites ).  The chances Curlin, Zenyatta, Stardom Bound win are possible, but, unlikely ( they will be the 3 prohibitive favorites ).

So, although I agree with some of you, that you should play these favorites ( Curlin, Zenyatta, Stardom Bound )in the exotics, Jason is right, in that you don't have to pick them to win.  You have got to pick the horses that can beat these horses in their respective races.  

You stand to get odds on the second, third and fourth ( not to mention long shots ) choices ( in the races with the big 3 ) that are two or three times higher than they should be.

Do you realize I have seen some European books that are making Ginger Punch 10 to 1 or better.  Hysterical Lady 14 to 1.  Listen, I know all about Zenyatta and I know all about how she beat both of these.  So what. This is horse racing and Zenyatta is not a machine ( as much as we think she acts like one on the track ).  She lives and breathes and feels good and bad just like the rest of us.  I have seen too many "sure things", get beat to let horses go off at 10 to 1 or 15 to 1 who are as special as GingerPunch and Hysterical Lady ( regardless of synthetic surface ). Hysterical Lady, Ginger Punch, Carriage Trail, Cocoa Beach are all legit and if Zenyatta hiccups at the wrong time in the race they all could win. The same can be said about Stardom Bound.  Not to mention both are closers and will have to deal with traffic ( even though small field for Z,  which sometimes cause the most problems ).

It is very possible that Curlin, Zenyatta and Stardom Bound are ready to run and still get beat because of trip ( don't think these other jockeys don't have a bullseye on the those 3 favorites ).  There will be some race riding to be sure, count on it.

That's the thing about this game, they don't vote who's best, they run them.  Of Course if Curlin, Zenyatta and Stardom Bound have great racing luck and all run there best on BC day they will  win.  Duh. If you have been watching this game long enough you see 3/5 and even money favs go down as regular as rain.  

Breeders' Cup was made to pick prices.  If you play the horses there is no better time than BC to make a nice score.  

The general public is out in masses and the more that show up at the windows the more the collective pool is filled with inferior horse players.  You really can't ask for more than that as a player, imo.  The prices are inflated on very nice horses all over this BC field.  It would be a shame to know the history of BC payoffs and not go about trying to get your share.  There won't be any big scores if you have Curlin, Zenyatta or Stardom Bound on the top of your tickets ( you may make a few bucks and that is nice ).

I say whenever there are races with huge favorites ( even if you like the favorite and play them ),  you should always try a few bucks trying to beat them.  It is amazing how often you can hit huge scores by just eliminating the huge favorite.  That just seems to be impossible for some to do.

Just think, one bobble or jump or nose dive out of the gate and your 3 to 5 is through.  It happens all the time.  What if Z or Stardom or even Curlin get an inside post position and some riders just pin them to the rail all the way around?  It happens.  What if a couple riders decide to take your favorite wider and wider around those turns if you are stuck outside? It happens and will happen if given the opportunity.  These rider have be perfect even with the best horse.

No, you can't play safe on Breeders' Cup day.  You have to take a few swings for the fences.  If any of the big 3 get trouble ( for whatever reason ) and don't come in the tri or super, the payoffs ( regardless of what odds end up comming in ) will be very strong.  If you happen to get a big price or two mixed in it could be life changing in a super.  Even a nice exacta excluding the favorite can be well worth your extra effort.

You gotta love Breeders' Cup!

Yea your right Jordan she did get alot out of that race. Alot of the time talent makes up for mistakes. I hope she gets an outside hole and stays out of trouble.

Riders make a bad call sometimes but he's the guy who makes the decision. I like Irish Ross's take on the euro's. He sounds like a guy who's bet on the odd one. The only"lock" I see is Zenyatta. It will take a huge effort on somebody else's part to beat her.

Cash, I think the majority of us are seasoned handicappers, some of whom have been doing this for 30 years or more and heaven forbid there are even some horsemen on here.

Fine, express your opinion but to tell us what we SHOULD do and talk down to us like we don't have a clue what we're doing is inappropriate.

You think anyone doesn't know this is horse racing and anything can happen? (well maybe one person doesn't get it but I'm not too sure what kind of a handicapper he is.)

Plus, you have no idea who you are actually talking to, how much we may win doing this. We're expressing our opinions and discussing them. This isn't handicapping 101 and an unknown poster doesn't have much credibility. It's Jason's blog and even he doesn't give us that talk down attitude. My philospohy, put your money where your mouth is.

Kitman: My posse and I call him "he who we do not name". Just carry on with your comments and hope to hear from you often. Don't respond or it goes on and on in an endless loop. Have a great day everyone and Go Hawley!

Alex,

I don't give a rip if you feel offended or talked down too.  I gave my opinion which is worth every bit as much as yours.

I didn't say anything that someone should get offended by unless they have serious issues with ego.

Why in the world you feel talked down to by what I said speaks volumes about you.  

Not everyone is so seasoned ( code word for sensitive and ego overdosed ).  Some enjoy different perspectives and whether they agree disagree or not they don't take the time to let a stranger offend them with thoughts on a page, lol.  

Wow, a whole 30 years, that's impressive, and irrelevant.

There was a discussion involving favorites why or why not take them and I added my two cents and you think I talked down to you.

Check your ego at the door because I will post my opinion and if it offends you then go somewhere else to console your ego.

Congradulations to Sandy Hawley on winning the Legends race at Santa Anita today. Good job done by all the retired jocks involved in this great promo for the sport.

With Mast Track verbally committed to Classic, where will first defence run?   He always worries me with his speed.  I think, depending if he gets a decent post he could be controlling speed in either the sprint or the mile ( even though there is speed around him in both ).  I don't know if he has enough "want to"  or not.  Earlier this year he gave it up early a couple times coming out of far turn ( although his rides weren't perfect by any means ).  He has shown better in last few. He seems more of a sprinter, but, the mile may give him his best advantage on being the controlling speed. I don't know if he can win either race, but, at 15/1 or so, he could be a good exotics player.

I agree with Cash.  Breeders' Cup is a time to go for the long ball!

Wasn't offended in the least, Cash.  You got yours, I got mine, he's got his, she's got hers and the world goes round.  

Alex,

Really? How does one tell you the horse he likes or the way he wagers without offending you?  Cash made a suggestion to take a shot and I agree, why should he worry about whether there are seasoned handicappers on here or "horsemen" or even 30 year veterans. Your declaration of "you have no idea who you are actually talking to" is so funny and kind of sad all in one. What difference does that make?  Should he walk on egg shells and utter respectful tones to all the great ones who post on here regularly?  

I have been reading these blogs for months and just had to state my opinion, like it or not.

Keep on talking Cash and get over yourself Alex.

Cash, just saying that trash talking like that is better served on hardcore sports blogs. If you think it's okay to TELL people how they should bet and what they should think then knock your socks off.

C&C,

Geez guys I think what Alex was saying is you don't have to come on so strong. This is SUPPOSED to be a friendly board.  This is supposed to be fun. A lot of people could come on here and say YOU should do this and YOU should do that, if it's just opinion like we're all giving just say what YOU would do, not what all of the rest of US should do.

I didn't trash talk one bit.  I have only defended myself from your trash talking of me.  

As far as telling people what to do and think, please.  Grow up.  This is a blog seeking opinions and I gave mine.

Nobody falls for word games like you are playing.  We can all read and I wasn't doing anything different than anyone else on here, except, bow to you and yours before stating my opinion.

Move on.

Hey Wanda knew you'd be proud of that. Some of those guys looked ready to collapse afterwards. I'm watching the Works and I was amazed to see how many Canadian horses are here, knew about some of them, cool. I just hope we don't have more of the you know who types on here, the kind who le besoin d'apprendre une peu d'humilité eh? Oh you're from Calgary right? I think you get my drift.

Hey Jason, tell me this. How does the track decide who gets to work between races? Doug asked to work two and they refused him. Maybe because they aren't the same stature as Curlin and people won't get a chance to see him on BC day?

Just curious. Maybe I'll get the chance to ask the man.

Hmm kind of an interesting remark, the TVG guys said no real standouts in the Juv Fillies, course Amoss is high on the Alcibiades winner. MY longshot filly finished 2nd there so if she just takes a step forward, but I still like Stardom Bound.

As soon as it's finalized I'm getting serious with my picks. Heard Curlin went a bit quicker than Steve wanted, that was the question about him seeming a little eager, but it seemed easy. Course who better than Steve to know what he wants.

Kitman,

I came on here and gave my opinions on what I think should be done.  I didn't order you or anyone else to do what I said.  It was a simple opinion, take it or leave it.

Meanwhile, only a few posts back, you verbally attacked someone and now try to tell me this is supposed to be fun.  A bit hypocritical don't you think?  

I gave opinions and because you didn't like my writing style you both cry foul.  I could go through this blog and find dozens of examples of people stating strong opinions on what a horses' connections should do or not do. Or this horse will win this race and you are fool not to bet it.

Give me a break!  So you don't know my name, I should change my personality and be meek for all the Bluebloods of the Blog.  

I talk like I talk and I write like I write, simple as that.  I was very friendly and used no foul language in my post that Alex attacked. I kept it on topic ( racing ) Now, however (still not using foul language ) I am more than a little angered at the wholier than thou attitude here.  I don't find it easy to sit back and be attacked because someone thinks I came on to strong, ( while doing nothing more than stating what my opinion is on BC betting ) yet takes shots at other posters. What? You think we all can't read?

Both you and Alex can ignore my posts as I will ignore yours in kind, unless again, attacked.

I want to talk Breeders' Cup, dang it!

Everybody's always got the jump on Zenyatta! Thing is, she straightens out in stretch and inhales them with monster moves! Would consider a Carriage House box with Zen--just because of that Keeneland prep---but no horse runs away from Zenyatta, not for long! I'm lovin' The Dirt Mile/lovin My Pal Charlie! Love the way he ran in Super Derby--yes he rode the inside bias that day (2nd horse also rode rail) but I've always liked this horse and there's just NO better way to judge a horse than to see him put it all together! This horse just did "put it all together", his best race by far, I believe he's the horse to beat and will hit him/hope for 8-1 but he's probably gonna be the "wiseguy pick"...They're talkin bout Zenyatta cuz she's all that/she's that good! How good? But, wow, BOTH The Distaff and Classic came up real strong this year! It really looks like both will be won by favorites! I'll take Carriage House underneath Zenyatta....Tiago/Col John/Go Between/Mast Track under Curlin....My Pal Charlie to win/boxed with Slews Tiznow/Albertus Maximus/Well Armed/Two Step Salsa (Dirt Mile is best betting race!)...and Fatal Bullet to win/boxed with Street Boss/Fabulous Strike in Sprint....This is all "as of now", or corse, there's a (wonderful) week to go, 'hope all the horses are fit/well/ready! 'Hope all the trainers are gettin' their four hours sleep and worryin' the other twenty! Hope everyone finds a horse they love and has a great week/GREAT BC!!

Oh and Wanda, you were the one who knows Reade Baker, right? I heard Fatal Bullet is working tomorrow I think. You may be onto something there. Baffert said it's almost 100% that Indian Blessing will go in the F&M Sprint. Things are clearing up a little, now almost as clear as mud.

Cash, bring it on, you're cool! No offense taken cuz/none intended! Interesting, your take on the unlikliness of the "Three Amigos", Curlin/Zenyatta/Stardom Bound all winning---that is real "thinking outta the box" as your logic is very true! Ask anyone who wins those races and it's a "sure thing", but the true chance of all three closers winning are less than even money! Back it up...which one is LIKLIEST to lose? Methinks it's Stardom Bound. I also think it's HIGHLY unlikely Zenyatta loses/ as well as VERY unlikely Curlin loses...I'll bet against Stardom Bound with C S Silk just because of your logic--the best horse does not always win, but it helps if you have a decent horse to beat him with---to me, there are no horses within two lengths of Curlin/Zenyatta---I do not (yet) feel that way about Stardom Bound/DO think C S Silk is a real nice filly...but Curlin/Zenyatta look solid to me/I think after the Cup they'll have to hook up on the track....love the Juvy Colts/Dirt Mile/Sprint, good luck, Cash, it looks like it may very well be a chalkie BC but remember the underneaths/and 2-1 on Curlin is a pounce!

Cmon guys, if you've been reading you know the history and that is why so many people say things to he who must not be named, to avoid this kind of stuff, it irks a lot of people when someone is so emphatic. Too many of these blogs have turned into garbage. I'm a handicapper, I like to read everybody's opinion, skip the ones I think are B.S. The sensitivity is because of the history and how quickly the boards can degenerate. (and have). Seems like the sensitivity isn't all onesided.

Cash, yes you're entitled to your opinion, just think the other two guys were trying to chill it down a little, they weren't mean or rude. If you and Craig have been reading you will see how rude some guys have gotten.

Matthew, Heard Fatal Bullet is working tomorrow. Maybe I can catch  it. I think with Indian Blessing out that may be the choice. I guess I slept thru it but Midnight Lute has a patch.

Zenyatta, looks awesome, she is what everybody is talking about, scary good. She won't be a price but where do we go from here?

Jason, I hear you, just a difference between WHO I directed MY comments to, how well we all know that deal. Sorry, just didn't want to see it again.

Hey, are you going to the draw? Or are you just going to hang out? Heard that the weather is supposed be in the mid 90's but cooling off for the weekend. What do you Cali guys think, is the track still super hot?

Andy O--Where was Commentator at Belmont? This looks like the best Breeders Cup in years and you're lamenting the loss of Commentator (as do I) and laying it at the hands of Pro Ride---Nick never did come West much, but I'll say again, where is he? Is he going in The Clark? If not, then there are other reasons he not at The Cup...I have said this before but Commentator would've had a hard time hitting the board in Classic---he's NOT a Gr 1 1 1/4 horse and certainly not a two turn 1 1/4 horse thats ever gonna win The Classic--and Nick knows that! Albert The Great would've come West---and Nick knows that!

Hey Matthew, there's cool and then there's cool. Like when I agreed with you and you ripped me, then I said to chill and you were cool with your comeback. That's what cool is. Not telling people to grow up and that kind of stuff. Like Jason says, let's just chill, we'll have enough headaches trying to figure this all out and I'm going to try and hit some bigggg longshots.  Even though you dissed my Stardom Bound, I'm cool with it. Would like my longshot to win it. Need another Big pick 6 or at least a few grand. Got to make up my losses in the stockmarket.

Heck getting old and having to be in bed before your kids huh? Remember the day when I could go to Vegas, stay up for 4 days and still function. Oh that was a  few months ago, bad example. Have a safe trip, it's supposed to be hot until Friday, mid 90's.

May try to make it out for Wednesday but like I said, big project, need my gamblig $$$$$.

Yes, people talk about Zenyatta--scary good! It's the ground she makes up/so fast! I'll be there, and I'll salute Bobby and his classy mare Ginger Punch, Jerry and his classy mare Hystericalady, Music Note the 3yo....and to think they'll probably be fighting it out for 2nd--well behind the big filly...that is scary! This Ladies Classic is the all-time strongest, no question, that's how good it is! Ginger Punch, a champion, is a real good horse as is Hystericalady--Music Note adds intrigue and class! To even think of this race as a "shoe in" for Zenyatta..is almost surreal, greatness is fleeting--there is something great happening on Fri 24th--in a race that would be STRONG--without her--Zenyatta is odds-on....

I think Curlin may win, but it isn't going to be a walk. His last race makes me think he is beatable particularly by a horse who is used to the Pro-ride. Zenaytta should have run in the classic. An AWESOME horse.

Jordan,Brad: Hey thanks for all the support for a Canadian rider.I know you guys won't see this till Sun night so I thought I'd better post it now. Brad I don't know Reade Baker, I know of him. I do know the owner of Fatal Bullet(slightly). My husband knows him better than me. He's had a few beers with him in the stand up bar at Stampede Park. Big:If you see the work could you give me the down low? Maybe that will help stop those voices in my head. Again thanks alot you guys are the best.

Wanda, do they have any place for you to watch this stuff up there? If not, that's too bad for such a supporter of racing like you are.

I can watch it where I am but only on TVG. Will try to have my picks finalized before I head out later in the week. I'm hoping they show it on the works, due to start in a few. Seems like they could put it on one of their ESPN channels so more people could see it and follow.

Red Giant out, maybe that work in company was too stressful. Soldier of Fortune has a rabbit, I'm interested to see how he takes to that turf.

Thanks for the update on the temps Brad.

Jason, if you get the chance can you at least give us a hint as to your opinion of the track and if it's as hot as they're all saying?

I think anything goes here - its the best of the best so whatever anyone thinks could be a play.  good luck to everyone!!  Let's just hope every horse and jockey makes it out ok and the racing is clean!

Thanks Jason, appreciate any info.

Hope you get some lowdown on the appearance of some of the horses to us as well, I obviously need any help I can get, tough trying to find a price right now.

Zenyatta is an Amazon, she looks simply amazing. Curlin looks sensational and actually Mast Track seems ready to run.

first i'm getting sick of the expression the euros are coming, come on is not like they are unbeatables. look what happen to the super dylan thomas last year, he losing made the $200 that i pay for my seat worth it. i was going to bet on student council in the classic but now i'm considering Pyro and Smooth air in a trifecta with curlin. everybody is so involve with the euros and the california horses that the forget this two. also i'm sticking with ginger punch to repeat, indian blessing to win, ventura and dytona in the turf spring.

Kitman: I can access lots of stuff with the computer. We have simulcast at the racetrack and the south end of town.I can get the works on the SA webcam but I don't know who the players are if you know what I mean. The posse are my eyes and ears on both coasts. To tell you the truth it's great just to chat with this group of people.We have never met but I feel that they are a really nice bunch of wild and crazy guys!

Sweet Cannot Whait

Only 5 DAYS Left

YES!!!!!!!!!

GO CASION  DRIVE GO BABY GO

Kitman...MAST TRACK has beaten this bunch (with the exception of Curlin).  He set SOFT fractions of 24 and 48 4/5ths in the Hollywood Gold cup at 10-1.  Go Between, and to a certain extent, Tiago, tried to close but Mast Track had plenty in the tank.  Where is WEll ARMED when we need him?  If MAST TRACK is the lone speed he may get loose.  Cost of Freedom got loose after posting a 110 Beyer in his previous start and it was all over for Street Boss in the Ancient Title on Sept. 24.  I like your angle.

I think they can place Zenyatta anywhere in the race and she seems comfortable with a split of 46 and change as well as 49.  She sits closer to a slower pace. She obviously needs something to look at and I don't think she saw the horse turning for home in the Clement C. Hirsch at Del Mar.  However, once they hit the 1/8 pole "picks" this horse up and just blew by her.  It would actually be to her advantage to let someone get the "jump on her" turning for home.  With her moster closing 1/8, speed can't endure (Ginger Punch or Hysterical Lady) and nothing, with the exception of Culin, can close with her.  

Let's talk longshots. You know there's gonna be some, there always is. Since it's the year of the un-known surface, do we favor the Euro's? Which race has the greatest probability to produce an upset? J, did you get a look at Curlin? Any info?

What do you guys think? I'm turning my attention now to the "others" (not chalk) and welcome some feedback as possible sleepers, before stating my final picks.

I have 3 tickets for the breeders cup Fri And Sat.  I will sell at face value...$100.00 each...they are grandstand seats.

Wanda good, I was hoping you had access. You're right about all of your board buddies from what I've read. The Works didn't get the workout of Fatal Bullet on tape, can you believe that? I wanted to see the work because the one they showed on 10/12 looked pretty good except for the way his head bobbed a few times. could be nothing.

The pre-entries are dropping like flies. I don't know about you guys but I'm going to hold off til the draw tomorrow and hope no defections before Fri/Sat.

SundaySilenced,

I think First Defence is a live longshot in the sprint.

For some reason, even with all the speed, I think Indyanne is too good to get 12/1 or better.  If she happens to be the one on the lead she will have a big shot, imo. So much speed, so that is a big if, but, you said longshots.

With the defection of Mast Track and First Defence from the Dirt Mile and with Well Armed preferred pressing style, there is a chance Two Step Salsa gets away.

Shakis probably prefers a little longer, but, he loves it on the firm.

I don't know if he will be that long, but, I give Bushranger a big shot in the Juvy.

I also think Grand Couturier and Better Talk Now ( I know, but, he will be closing and has a rabbit, albeit not meant for him).

There you have it Sunday, some of the longshot plays I am looking at for a few sheckles.

Holy cow, another site is reporting Mast Track popped a quarter crack and is out of the Breeders Cup.

Put Well Armed in the Classic!

Tiz, yes the NTRA site said the barn called Frankel with the news and he's going to check it out tomorrow, he's not too upset sounds like.

I'm not giving anymore picks I think, don't want to jinx myself. Forget my longshot in the Juv Fillies please.

Guess synthetic doesn't keep them from getting quarter cracks.

Tiznowbaby.  You gotta love Well Armed's 4 furlong work Monday...46 and change!

Anyone here familiar with euro and us racing tell me why I shouldn't have Goldikova singled in the Pick 6??  Looks like the most likely winner of the pick 6 races, maybe even more so than Curlin.

Jordan A I love Stardom Bound! I just think of the "Three Amogos" of Curlin, Zenyatta and Stardom---she's the MOST likely no to win--based on her youth/lack of seasoning/etc....mathematically, it is not likely all three will win, and C S Silk has really caught my eye, as well as others! Curlin and Zenyatta both look strong to me! By the way, hot days continue in So Cal! Think that helps the late-shippers (like Lewis Michael and My Pal Charlie, whom I'm picking in Dirt Mile)...track has been playing to speed--must keep eye on the horses/eye on the track surface...Think Col John's gonna lay close in Classic! He's fresh! By Tiznow/Turkoman, major stamina influences throughout/and late developing tendancies make him a play-a in de Classic!! That Well Armed work looked like he's working for the Mile--too bad with the Mast Track incident! Although the speed has been holding/ the work will have him up front....I like C S Silk and Stardom Bound...I like Curlin over Tiago/Col John/Go Between...Fatal Bullet!!...My Pal Charlie!! (boxed with Two Step Salsa/Lewis Michael/Well Armed/Albertus Maximus)...Zenyatta over Carriage Trial...and the Euros on turf...

wishful thinking on my part. Eoin has said Well Armed is going in the dirt mile.

(not that I don't love Colonel John too. I think he has a great shot)

GO CURLIN!!!!!!!!!

Matthew, Only thing in her favor is none of the rest of them are super seasoned as well. Do you live here in Cal? It's not really super hot it's just the track that seems that way, not every day, depends on clouds, but no rain in the future for us. Watering is helping. I think coming from 50-60 daytime temps the heat will affect the horses that ship in. 80's not a lot to get acclimated to but it is hotter than back east. I've got my picks, am trying for a price but I'm waiting until after the draw and probably will hold off til Thursday with the way we're losing them.

Love Well Armed (it's about all I talk about on this blog).  But I can't help but think his defection from the Classic is Eoin's endorsement of CURLIN in the big dance.  Well Armed is 1/2 length ahead of Heatseeker, 1/2 length behind Go Between, and several lengths in front of Tiago.  Based on Dubai...this still puts CURLIN 8 lengths in front of this crew.  His connections have repeatedly said that their Tiznow gelding can get the 1 1/4 and based on his Pacific Classic run I think they are right.  Good luck CURLIN...Good luck Well Armed. Reality is starting to set in.

Zaftig f&m sprint

Go do it Saturday, magnificent CURLIN! We know you can; I saw you in the Stephen Foster June 14. What a stunning horse you are! My photos prove that! And what stunning performances you have treated us fans to the past year and a half.  Thank you, CURLIN, and good luck! We love you. My silver Bengal cat is named after you and will serve as your lucky charm. :-)

GO CURLIN!!!!!!!

Jordan A Cost Of Freedom/Tyler Baze will have to gun from rail/as will Fab Strike...Like Fatal Bullet if he can stalk, maybe two, three lengths back at the 1/2 mi pole...but the guy you cannot toss is the proven class/stalker type and that's In Summation! Johnny V will/should get 1st run at the leaders from the outside post---will box him with Street Boss and Fatal Bullet--hoping Tyler engages Fab Strike--both In Summation and Fatal Bullet should get 1st run--whether it's enough to withold Midnite Lute/Street Boss I dunno...Curlin looks solid in Classic! The key is the 1 1/4 distance! Egads all they talked about was Curlin ducking the BC---Now he's running and for what? Thank you, Jess, for running him--He's an old fashioned grinder with old fashioned stamima! Dray not even the exacta? The real fun is finding the horse who'll engage Curlin in BC Stretch...if there is one....This is a big-time race! It came up strong! But it's the 1 1/4, the last 1/16 is Curlin's...Did you hear Mr Frankel as to why Mast Track goes in mile? Do you know what he meant when he said he couldn't win The Classic? Yeah, I want it all--I wanna see Zenyatta and I wanna see Curlin--do what they're supposed to do! In the bright sun!