Yea, the Classic field is nice, but consider what it's doing to the field of the Turf and/or Mile.  The Turf is going to be extremely weak this year, and imagine the Mile with one of Coolmore's milers.  

As for Summer Bird, let's not forget that this is a horse that worked so poorly over the turf a few months ago that Ice vowed he'd never set foot on it again.  So how exactly will he take to the synthetic?  I'm not at all optimistic, and I think he'll be a huge bet against in this race.  

I have, and never will, support a 'main track' surface that puts 'dirt' horses at any sort of disadvantage.  To me, that just doesn't make sense.  

But yes, on the surface, I feel that the Classic will have a nice field this year.  It's going to be an impossible race to handicap - looking at the probables there are probably 8-10 logical winners.  

Jason you're right! I, too, lament synthetics, but the Euro power is palpable--also, Santa Anita has been kind to top Euro turfers, too, like Islington/Goldikova....No. when they're all lined up that (Classic) looks like the race of the year, even without Sea the Stars/Rachel Alexandra/Zenyatta....I already love Blind Luck in the Juvy Fillies...love Richards Kid in the Classic but make no mistake about it--Summer Bird is the horse to beat....Gio Ponti, Rail Trip, Mine That Bird, Colonel John, Rip Van Winkle, Einstein and if Zenyatta goes like I hope---THAT'S the capper on a huge year, not soon to be forgotten....

I like Zenyatta for the win!

Jason, I thought this was interesting about synthetics.

According to Mary Scollary of the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission, racehorse fatalities on sythetics are 1.47 per 1,00 starts. They are 2.03 per 1,000 starts on dirt tracks.

What's sad, though, is that in England they are 0.8 to 0.9 per 1,000 starts.

Anyway, I can't wait to see how the Goodwood will affect who starts in the Classic.

Tiznowbaby,

    Thanks for the stats on horse fatalities on synthetics vs. dirt tracks.  That's actually the first I've seen concerning the comparison.  As far as England having a lower fatality rate, I think a lot of that is attributed to breeding practices & drug use in Europe vs. the US.  I think breeding for distance and the use of less drugs does have an impact on fatalities.  Also, I think the rates may be skewed a little due to the fact they race less on sythetics and more on grass in England whereas most of the races in the US are run on synthetics/dirt tracks.  Anyone else agree?

    As far as the Classic is concerned, it is shaping up to be a good race.  We still have a few more preps to get through and hopefully all the Classic hopefuls make it through in good shape.  I'm personally leaning towards Rip Van Winkle in the Classic.  He seems to be getting good at the right time.  I don't think Sea The Stars will come.  If he did, he would be real tough to beat & definitely a deserving favorite.  I'm really hoping that Zenyatta doesn't run in the Classic.  I know this is probably not popular opinion because many would like to see her face males for the 1st time, but I'm hoping she runs in the Distaff (I refuse to call it the Ladies Classic).  If she does, I think Careless Jewel would have a good shot to knock her off providing she can transfer her recent dirt form to the SA pro-ride surface.  Plus, being selfish as a handicapper, I would get a much better price on Careless Jewel if Zenyatta was in the Distaff.

As a fan I am going to enjoy The Breeders Cup no matter what.  But the poly track has done NOTHING positive for American racing.  What good comes out of a horse winning 1 race all year and coming over and beating our Horse of the Year ?  Racing has enough problems without adding this poly nonsense.  On the positive side I have to admit I can't wait to see GIO take on Quality Road what a battle that will be.  Music Note looks unbeatable but I am sure Z will make a valiant effort.  I am sure there will be some big upsets so I am hoping to hit a few pick 3's and look forward to a couple of days of great racing.  Good luck this weekend to MTB it would be nice to see him come back and run a good race.

Personally I feel Zenyatta will face a tough field in both the Classic and Ladies' Classic. Even if she sticks with the girls, she'll have to deal with the likes of Careless Jewel, Music Note, and Stardom Bound. Either race will equal an interesting one.

Not complaining about the synthetics, but have one question:  Why would they put the Breeders Cup races at the same track for two years in a row?  And yes, I would say that if they did it at a track with a traditional dirt surface as well.  I just don't understand the reasoning here.  

Jason...U NOE THE INTENT WAS PURE B$...IT WAS ALL ABOUT THE $$$ AGAIN...THAT MANDATE N CA...$$$...LONG LIVE THE DIRT!!!...NOE BREAK DOWNS...WE HOPE THE CUP GOES OFF PERFECT & GOOD LUCK TO EM...WE LOVE THE GAME!!!...

Very insightful article Jason: I like Gio Ponti in the classic. I know the synthetic surface is a question mark but I have read that the Santa Anita surface is favorable to turf horses. With that said, I expect the horses from across the pond to do well as they did last year. Goldikova probably wins the mile turf again, and Rip Van Winkle is somewhat of a mystery. I would have thought that the connections would have run him in the BC Turf not the Classic so I think that makes him an intangleble. I like Summer Bird to do well also and I pick him to run 2nd in the Classic.  I respect your thoughts here but isn't it possible that this years Ladies Classic could have the best lineup in it's history. Pretty much every top filly or mare will be there except Rachel.  

Jason,

    I do agree with you. I absolutely hate synthetics, and it's supporters that constently try to shove it down our throats, but dispite that the locals and the Euros that take to the surface( I say that because even though HTN and RP did well the Duke finished way up the track), that it will be a good race. Because of the synthetics, unless the results are formful, I don't think the the races will have an impact on the outcome of many eclipse awards. You are right though, baring any breakdowns, it should be a fun weekend

I can't get excited for the Classic when the #1 USA grasshorse and several Euro grass horses think the "dirt" Classic is the race they can win.

Will never be a fan of synthetics. That however will not stop me from playing the BC races. I learnt an important lesson last year and I want to try it this time around in regards to turf horses running on synthetics. Much like the old adage that turf horses running on dirt perform well, I noticed the trend that turf horses ran well on the "pretend dirt". Thus I will favour turf horses moving to the synthetics and throw out any dirt horse who never ran on synthetic surfaces. Finanacial suicide? Perhaps but there is two days of racing so I have time to re-adjust my theory.

BTW Jason, enjoy Keeneland. You'll make it back to the Spa someday soon. Well at least we can hope.

Hey Jason

Welcome back

I agree that having the main track races run on synthetics does add intrigue to the races especially the classic. Allot  of the horses that will be showing up are doing so because of the synthetic factor.

I actually think that the breeders cup did this with the intention of attracting the euros. They wanted to make a more international event.

I guess they figured it would be a sort of neutral ground, the dirt horses would come , and they would also attract the turf horses. I guess they didn't realize that it would distinctly advantage turf horses, and that allot of the trainers dislike the surface.

To be honest though Jason , Rachael asides, the classic won't really be missing too much , in the way of dirt horses not coming.

I also agree with Jason in that I don't think they would have sent her to the breeders cup any way. I think she already had a taxing year , and they would have shut her down , or probably would have gone for the softer ladies classic spot.

Looking at the classic that's showing up, I think it looks to be a very competitive race. I don't think it takes anything away from the turf. I don't think  Gio Ponti wants any part of 1 1/2 miles at all, and even though she lost this weekend , I think Goldikova  is scaring allot of horses away from the mile. I think Einstein's connections would have gone to the classic regardless, they are looking at enhanced stallion value.

Looking forward to this weekend , We'll see what happens a Oak Tree

How do you have a race called the Dirt Mile which isnt even on the dirt?  It's impossible to have division winners on the line when they race on different surfaces.  They need to have some uniformity and build up turf racing in the US rather than create 3 seperate "specialists."  It's diluting the fields and hurting a somewhat sagging product.  The deaths per 1000 have to be skewed because of all the little tracks out there that dont keep them up and have poor grounds crews, no?  Aren't most synthetic tracks much bigger, etc?

I say let the best horse - American, European or Martian - win! If we want the best racing in the world, we need to be open for the best horses no matter where they come from. And then sit forward and enjoy the races!

O'Brien will run 1-2 in the Classic if Sea The Stars doesn't come.

America's 4 best horses are Rachel Alexandra (not coming) Summer Bird (unproven on synthetics) Quality Road (unproven on synthetics) and Zenyatta (MIGHT run in the Classic).

Look at the Classic field. There is no speed in the race.  Its going to be a sprint to the finish and that HEAVILY favors the Euros.  If Zenyatta does go there she will be compromised with her running style.

Rip Van Winkle wins easily from Mastercraftsman.  You read it here first!

You make a good argument for synthetics. Take away the Europeans and Gio Ponti and you don't have much. Maybe it should be at Santa Anita every year. At least that way we can have a real World Champion.

Hey Jason- Just a side note.  Globeform came out with their BC rankings and picks and tye say that Zenyatta has the best globeform number of any classic bound horse and unless STS runs, she wins.  Her best # is 129 on GF and then they add 3lbs because of weight allowance.  And another aside, nobody should be calling RA's weight break as unfair.  It's done all over the world- so it is legit and accepted no matter where you run.  So give that argument a rest please.

LDP-you're right about whether they can handle synthetic or not.  They prepped Mastercraftsman on it to make sure he could handle it and to make sure he could get 10 furlongs.  Even Euros coming over for the turf races aren't guaranteed that they will handle the turns here.  If we sent horses there, those would be facing the same dilemmas as far as track configurations and course conditions.  I think that the Europeans are smarter now as to who they send.  They take in consideration more things other than performance now.  But, as you saw with Duke of Marmalade, it doesn't matter how good you are- it's all whether you can adapt.

Dray- Raven's Pass did only win one race before the Breeder's Cup- but he was high class all year in the best mile races in Europe.  He was a very classy horse, who could outkick Henrythenavigator at a longer distance.  Dettori said he was only worried about Henrythenavigator because he was the only horse there who could kick with his horse.  But it just proves again that the right horse needs to be sent.

I too hate the synthetics, but with that said I will enjoy seeing rip, mastercraftsman, and gio all competing in the classic.  I think the classic is between 5 horses, rip, mastercraftsman, gio, col. John, and einstien, and maybe if he takes to it quality road. With Rip beating out Mastercraftsmen for the win. I don’t foresee Summer bird taking to the surface.  With all that said if see the stars runs, he wins (best horse in the world).  Oh, and there is no shot Zenyatta runs in the classic, if she still has an unbeaten record.  I feel she loses in the distaff to Careless jewel by the way.

And one last thing about the breeders cup being on synthetics.  The race that is hurt the least is the classic.  Even though our biggest star isn’t there, it does have some of the best from all over the world running in it, but the races that are truly hurt are the other dirt races.  The European stars only ever really run in the turf races or take a chance by going in the big one (the classic).  The other dirt races well end up forcing the viewers to watch dirt horses run on grass light, without even the luxury of having great European horses in the fields.  That is the true travesty of having the cup raced on synthetics.

Well said Karen In Indiana

Yes, Rachel aside.   The best race horse in the US aside...

Having the BC at the same track, no matter where, is absurd.  To have it 2 years in a row on the same synthetic track is a joke.  Its not a neutral ground.  It is a turf horse favoring ground.

If Sea the Stars doesn't show, it will mean the two best horses in the world are missing.

Zenyatta isn't going anywhere near the Classic.  The Mosses are paranoid about her losing, and they've yet to even try her against the Cali colts.  Not about to risk her unbeaten record against the rest of the boys.

She'll have her hands full in the Lady's Classic.  Wouldn't surprise me in the least if Careless Jewel just ran off and hid.  Her Cotillion performance was amazing.  

I'll watch the races, but they're compromised both by the surface and the horses not there.

I don't agree with your blanket condemnation of synthetic surfaces (which, by the way, since the main component is sand it's perfectly reasonable to refer to races run on them to be on dirt).  The number one benefit I anticipated from synthetics is that they are always "fast".  I hate sloppy/muddy tracks - the fact that the synthetic tracks stay fast even in downpours (and therefore avoid the mass scratches you see on other surfaces) is to me enough to give them a big "thumbs up"!

Jason i haven't read all the comments but you said that Europeans would not have come if the BC was on dirt but most recently, Giant's Causeway and Shakee raced on traditional dirt and ran very well. So our horses may still have come over if it were at, for example, Belmont or Churchill.

Dray...I can't believe you took the words right out of my mouth. As a fan.. I will be watching. Even though I despise the synthetic surface, I will be powerless over my desire to see them all run. It is simply out of my control : )  I just hope they all run safely. I would like to see Zen but not sure how ready she will be. I'm really holding out for the little bay colt in the plain wrapper. I hope he runs a great race this weekend. The classic is anyone's race but I would like to see QR or SB win. IF they take to the surface we might be in for a show. I have grown fond of all these horses this year.

Zenyatta in the Classic?  I have flashbacks of Bayakoa finishing last at 1 1/4 in the Santa Anita Handicap.  Mc Anally summed it up BEFORE the race.  No filly or mare will beat the boys at 1 1/4 UNLESS she gets an easy lead.  Enter stage right...Rhulmann.  The rest is history.

I think the smartest prep of the entire prep season is the Goodwood.  Get your horse in early to Santa Anita, let them settle, and see how they like the synthetics.  

No way MTB and Chocolate Candy are cranked up off lay offs.  They get no higher than a show.

Rail Trip won't get and easy lead come Classic Time and I don't think he wants any part of a 1 1/4 Classic despite winning the Hollywood Gold Cup at a price.  1 1/8 is a little more up his alley.  

I hate to be a killjoy, but it will be the euros without a doubt but not for the reason everyone is saying. I believe it will be the euros this year (and last year as well) because european trainers can take advantage of liberal drug laws in the US. Imagine a good horse that gets to take steroids for the first time. His performance will improve remarkably. Just a thought.

Having the BC at the same venue two years in a row is the real problem. If SA had remained a dirt track it would still be a mistake to have it at the same track two years in a row. As far as synthetics go I think Pro-Ride is the fairest. Good turf horses run well on it as do good dirt horses. I know people will scream "What about Curlin" and all I can say is I thought Curlin was clearly on the downside pertaining to his current form before the race. He had a very ambitious schedule prior to the cup and I think it finally caught up to him.

Aidan p o Brien will be a non factor in B C CLASSIC-he doesn't ship well -acomplete throwout on win end

     OK, Time to eat a little crow.  I was a HUGE advocate for synthetics when they were introduced, As recent as this past summer, I was still willing to defend them.  Synthetics being implemented was for all the right reasons, They might have been rushed, True, But good intensions were behind the decision.  I won't list all my reasons for my change of heart, but, They should be obvious and I won't say anymore on the subject since this isn't the topic of this blog.

    I cannot wait for this year's version of the Breeder's Classic. The field is going to be amazing if everything pans out and no injuries occur in the next 4 weeks.  I don't think there is any chance Sea the Stars will be here, I would love to see him, But he has had a long year and too many varibles involved with him making the trip.  I am still sticking to my belief that Zenyatta will be in the Classic, After she wins this weekend easily, I think Mr. Moss will surprise everyone when he says she will go in the classic!  In a perfect world, To shut-up all the nay-sayers regarding Zenyatta, I would LOVE if she won it and I honestly think she would regardless of who is in the field.  I hope Mine that Bird does well this weekend, but 10 weeks and the shorter distance might hurt him, I will be happy for a top three then a Huge showing in the classic.  I would love to see Zenyatta, Summer Bird, Mine that Bird as your top three...

LDP,

   BTW, I didn't get a chance to post a comment on your guest blog, but, I wanted to commend you for a job well done, And, Yes, It still is "The sport of Kings", Bravo !!!

I am very interested to see how Rip Van Winkle performs in the Breeders Cup Classic as just for a

moment in the Eclipse Stakes at Sandown Park it looked like he had the beating of Sea The Stars until Stars moved into that now famous extra gear.Mastercraftsman won well

on the polytrack at Dundalk and he too has useful form behind STS.Gio Ponti seems to be headed that way

and we should know more about Zenyatta after the Lady,s Secret so the Classic still looks like it is shaping up as a good race.

If MTB runs a good race (doesn't have to win)Saturday it will set him up perfect for the Classic.

I think if he gets the right ride by Calvin in the Classic he should close like a train and will suprise a lot of people.

The only problem I forsee is that if he runs well Saturday his odds will not be as high (greedy)as I would like.

Well Jason, despite what you said about letting go of the synthetic surface complaining for a while, I knew it wouldn't happen!

Agree that Rachel would not have shown up at the BC in any case this year, not unless some adjustments had been made to her campaign.  With the same schedule of races, she would have been done Labor Day weekend, period, even if the BC were being run right out of her stall.

I believe Zenyatta will add a great deal to whichever race she ends up in.  Agree that both will be very tough fields.  Can't wait to see what happens Sat.

Would love to see Sea the Stars, just for the selfish reason of seeing a real superstar without having to travel to Europe myself.  With or without him, the Classic should be a wonderful race.  Affirming my patriotism, I am rooting for a Gio Ponti/Zenyatta exacta, or Col. John could sub for Zen if she doesn't go.

We already know the weather will be nice, so here's hoping for safe trips for all, just like last year.

Easy Goer- I know that some have used Lasix, and some have used Bute, but can you definitively say that those are the reasons they won?  Because it just strengthens the case that they should be banned, if they improve a horse that much.

LDP: What is this guest blog everyone is talking about?I would be interested in checking it out.

Thanks

Isn't Einstien going to the Goodwood?  I'll take him against any field any day!

jason

when is santa anita going back to dirt ??? has anybody asked that question.

Karen2,

    For LDP's Guest Blog, Scroll to the top of this page, Underneath the "Breeder's Cup Chat" Logo, Under recent posts, Click on "Guest Blog: Remember what's Good"...Enjoy!

Mike Smith is riding Tiago in Goodwood.

Go too window with confidence

I agree with ryanmoseley - as of now there is no pace in the Classic.  But Gio Ponti can close quite well off a slow pace and Colonel John has won from stalking a slow pace, so I don't think that necessarily favors the Euros.    

I don't think we'll see Zenyatta in the Classic either.      

Karen 2,

    A couple weeks ago, Jason went on vacation and let me guest blog. The blog is called Remember What's Good and two back behind this curren one of Jason's.

As I said before, I'm always excited about the Breeders Cup and this year is no different. I think the Classic will be a hell of a race with any number of possibilities.

I love Einstein, but I think he has tailed off and I don't expect him to win.

Colonel John hasn't given me any reason this year to believe he could win this race.

I told myself this year I would favor synthetic-based horses or Euro's, so that leaves out the Birds.  Maybe not a wise choice, but my gut says Summer Bird isn't going to favor the track.  I could still like MTB in the Classic but I'll wait to see how he goes in the Goodwood -another contentious race I'm looking forward to.

Also, I want to see how Richard's Kid and Rail Trip train coming into the race before I choose either or rule out either one.  These are the 2 "synthetic" horses I favor.

I like Mastercraftsman over RVW at this distance.  He's run well, won at the distance and has chased STS home a few times.

I haven't ruled out Quality Road, but I think he would be better served going to the Mile.

I think Zenyatta will go to the Distaff, but if she runs here I can't rule her out.  I haven't been real excited about her races this year, I think she may be tailing off, but she is like a freight train coming down the stretch and I love this girl.  

Who's left for me? Gio Ponti.  He has a win on the track so we know he can get over it.  He's done almost nothing wrong and if he's as fresh as his trainer says he is I think he is the one to beat.  

If Zenyatta run elsewhere, my current order of finish is:

Gio Ponti

Mastercraftsman

Einstein

But the Goodwood is going to give us some information about MTB and Richard's Kid who I think could both be contenders for a top finish.  

Good thing we still have 4 weeks to sort this out!

DRAYNAY

I agree with you weeks ago when you pointed out that the Donn would make sense next yr. for RA. Good luck this weekend!

Wow, Lethal Heat's running in the Lady's Secret this weekend, only one week after finishing 2nd in the CC...I love that filly. Gee, and all she's running against is Zen...

You know being a West Coast guy myself, and seeing how all the racetracks were being switched to synthetic surfaces, I hated it. Having to adjust my handicapping angles, turf to synthetic, so on and so forth. But seeing what we have now and the statistics that are out now, even though I think they rushed it with synthetics being installed, maybe eventually it will be the right move. I like lance, hate it when a track comes up sloppy and a field is reduced to 4 and there's no value in the race. With synthetics, you don't have the problem. The racetrack does go through changes with the added water to the track, but you just adjust to the bias and you still have a full field. I think the main issue with So Cal racing is the different surfaces we have. I think that's why we're having the amount of breakdowns/injuries happening during the very beginning of the meet as oppossed to 3 weeks into. Horses are adapting to the different surface. For some reason, you don't see injuries happen often when horses switch from synthetic to dirt, but when its synthetic to synthetic, it does. Let's unify to one surface and stick to it. I personally prefer the Hollywood Cushion Track. It plays much more to a dirt track angle where as the other two tracks change every second as far as bias goes. I know i'm in the minority on this one, and not too many people are fond of change, but as a handicapper, I just hate 4 horse fields. lol. I'd rather deal with a full field switching from the turf to synthetic because of rain then a sloppy reduced field of 4. Let's face it, without synthetics, we wouldn't get such a diverse group of a Classic field that we have now. This is what we've always wanted. The best of the best to face each other on a neutral surface. I believe if Curlin would've won last year, Rachel would be here. Just my two cents. I can't wait to go to the BC for the 2nd year in a row. It was a blast last year. I just hope Ventura pulls through for me again and try to parlay her to a price later on on the Friday card.

Now that that's out of the way, I need to poke at your article on one thing Jason, but actually Rail Trip doesn't love the SA surface. Ron Ellis and Jose Valdivia said on a consistent basis that he handle's the Hollywood surface way better than anywhere else. He doesn't have that same acceleration at SA, according to Ellis and Valdivia. Against this type of field in the BC, he's a major play against. Trust me.

Thank you Draynay for your well wish to Mind That Bird as I also hope he runs good and wins. I think that if he stays sound he's going to be around a while to prove himself. Let's hope so.

Look for Tres Barrachos to spoil the Goodwood at 1 1/8th.

I think the classic will be a good race. Having said that I am taking a pass on the "Rubber" track. As a gambler its just not worth the bet.

The Rock- I agree that it should be one consistent synthetic.  And I think you might be on to something about the injuries.  An interesting perspective.  

Hey LDP:  Great guest blog. I wish I would have been a part of it sooner. Lots of great comments like usual and I agree wholeheartedly with your observation of racing and where it is today. Every year we seem to get blessed with a superstar or two. Some just have amazing human interest stories and make them even more special. When Smarty ran I had an instant love affair with him. Something I thought I could never repeat. Boy was I wrong. I had that same feeling about the Pamplemouse this year. I was saddened to learn he was injured and done with his drive towards the derby. I had mad love for the Pamp. But then along comes a couple birds and one fast filly....wow.....how could you ask for more than that? Then to see QR coming back and running again after such dissapointment.. It takes your breath away....literally..I can't wait to see what next year holds..Dublin???? Maybe... Afleet Alex was one of my favorites. Heck, they are all one of my favorites...: )

Well it does look like Shirreffs will go for the undefeated carreer---I mean thats ok, can't get HOY (again) so why not, it's not like it'll be easy and even this weekend I think Life Is sweet is dangerous--Synthetics or dirt, I believe Shirreffs just doesn't want to make a filly prove it v males--THAT is his way, I can honour Zenyatta as a filly--it's not like I think Rachel Alexandra is better than the males--maybe THIS year but at 1 1/4 maybe not, they're BOTH great FILLIES and I can appreciate Zenyatta anyway....But look out for Richard's Kid--think Colonel John gets the lead but here comes Richards Kid and Mine That Bird.....Richard's Kid by a neck over Colonel John, Mine That Bird 3rd....gonna try to beat Zenyatta with Life Is Sweet, as she loves the track and that is key---gonna be rootin' for that big black mare....Go see her ifya can--Zenyatta is all that and a bag of chips!--The paddock dance....the walking ring, where you gulp at her size, her overall exuberance, which practically make you see it all in slow motion---the post parade and her strut--her slow stepping---she is conscious they have come to see her and that's stunning to see!...then the race, the dropping back, the void of speed...and the kick...its the same reason I like Rachel---Zenyatta shows up every day! when you add it all up, Zenyatta is one of those once in a lifetime horses, the deep closer who always fires!

The surface is different but a horse either gets 1 1/4 or he doesn't----Tiago is a big gamble this weekend! I'll box Colonel John/Richards Kid---I know I hate betting on synthetics, too, but I also love to get "behind" a horse or three foe the Breeders Cup--must be the fan in me!

Rock--How right you are! Hollywood Park was noticably different than Santa Anita/Del Mar--it played more consistent, like a dirt--it even was "filled" with dirt on a daily basis it seemed---So much seems to depend on surface temp---the cooler/ the tighter and the warmer/the deeper--- the track for early AM training sometimes has nothing to do with the track for  afternoon racing--and that just sucks, and pardon that metaphor!~

AllIcansayis Wow---little filly v males in Oak Tree Mile...had to wait in Del Mar Mile, got out too late to get Fernelly--but that guy ran solid 2nd in Woodbime Mile....I think AllIcansayis Wow has a good chance, gets Fallon the very good (disgraced) European Jockey....

I agree that Quality Road is better suited to the mile. But having said that, I am rooting for him and the Birds in the classic. I agree that Gio Ponti has everything going for him in the BCC and he should do well.

Zenyatta will run in the distaff and I am rooting for her as always. I do think Careless Jewel is going to give her a run for her money. But I think our Zen girl can pull it off.

STS will not come if the owner/trainers are smart. He needs a rest. Wish they would race him next year. I would like to make my immortal 3 horses, an immortal 4.

I agree Karen2 and Footlick that whatever horse wins will make for an exciting race, whether it is a Euro horse or an American. Just want them to come home safe and let the chips fall where they may.

I believe there are fewer breakdowns among the Euros because of their breeding. They are bred for stamina and that means they are less likely to breakdown i.e. they are not as fragile. I fully support that and wish we would do likewise. I do not like synthetics at all. I don't think the majority of horses like it either.

Draynay, I hope everyone sees the good wishes you sent for MTB. That gladdened my heart.

Going to Vegas in a few days Karen2 maybe they have the Derby odds up and I can get a few Dublin tickets.

Draynay-

Check out viewfromvegas.com

Click on race book notes.

Then breeders cup futures.

They show all the breeders cup future odds as well as the Kentucky derby future odds for the Wynn and Lucky's.

They are updated every Tuesday. Or to anyone else interested that doesn't go to Las Vegas.

Matthew- she ran a nice race last time.  Fallon can only be a plus!

Somebody needs to tell Johannesburg, High Chaparral, Ciro, Landseer, Powerscourt and Aussie Rules that Aidan O'Brien doesn't ship well.  I bet his numerous 2nd placers in US races will be surprised to learn of that little factoid too.  

I just read some articles from last year's Breeders Cup.  John Sheriffs withdrew Zenyatta from the Classic 6 days before the race last year.  The old articles basically say he had everyone thinking she was a strong possibility for the Classic.  Sound familiar?

I always doubted she'd be in this year's Classic and after reading those old articles I'm certain she won't be in it.  

Wynn's has a Kentucky Derby future

book now.

Karen 2,

    Thanks. I just wrote a blog on my site, basiclly describing how I discovered racing. I've had a few on FB say it's a pretty good post, and one a commenter said she liked it too.

Captainkool16 thank you for the info!

Karen2 if you want a Dublin ticket say the word and I will get you one. Last year Jason and I had a couple of tickets but had to depend on someone living in Vegas and it was a pain to say the least.  I have several shows in the next couple of months so Vegas is going to be a second home for a while.

As I stated on the last blog, if  RVW and Mastercraftsman come over to run in the classic, one of them will probably win, unless Awesome Gem stuns the world with a 43-1 victory. (Volponi, 2002, AP)I will also reiterate that I hate synthetics, and I can not wait until next year when the BC is back in Kentucky.

Jason, what do you think about the races tomorrow at Keeneland? I would join you, but my mom is flying in from Jersey and I am taking her out to Keeneland on Sat.  She be Wild is a good little horse, and I like her stalking trips. Fatal Bullet should win the Phoenix, but Capt Candyman Can is a nice colt. Finally, our 2YO colt is back in training at CD with Hal. He has a half sister that won first out at Turfway, so we are hoping he will do the same. Can't wait to start doing some handicapping. Keeneland should be great over the weekend.

Quality Road at 12 to 1 for the Classic ???  I am in for 200 !

I absolutely hate racing on the fake crap!! That being said it won't keep me from attending the local facility both Friday and Saturday to watch and wager. The large pools make it a must.

I'm dissapointed as most are that RA's connections are ducking racings biggest day of the year. They just don't think she's good enough on the fake crap to win. I'm dissapointed we won't find out. I don't buy the tired horse BS since they could have worked out a schedule to get her there rested and ready if they really wanted. The others all do.  

It wouldn't diminish in my mind anything she's accomplished in the last 6-8 months of racing if she went and was beaten. Personally though I think she'd have all she could handle if she went in the Ladies Classic. Alot of nice talent in that group.

Wouldn't it be great to see the worlds top ranked horse make it to the Classic? I've got my fingers crossed that Sea The Stars makes his way here. Even without him the Classic looks to be setting up as a great race.

Jason I liked your countdown on the draynay ban clock so much (except that it ran out way way too fast) I have a suggestion to make. How about putting one up for next years KY. Derby or better yet for both the Derby and the 2010 Breeders Cup back on dirt?

watch out for Julien in the first race tomorrow at Keeneland.

If you read the articles in the Racing Post you will see that Christopher Tsui has stated that he has no intention of selling Sea the Stars.

Odds are he will go to a "neutral" stud like the Irish National Stud, where he was born.

www.racingpost.com/.../latest

A decision on whether he goes to BC will be made towards the end of next week.

Thanks so much Dray.... but I won't be going to Vegas anytime soon.  It sound's nice though as it is already way to cold, way to early where I live. Dray..when you say you have a couple shows..would you mind if I asked what type of shows?

Jason,

Watch out for Beautician in the Alcibiades. Ken McPeek has been craving to race this horse around two turns and he's booming with confidence. you'll get a better price against She Be Wild. I love Fatal Bullet in the Phoenix. He'll get back to form in this race.

Jason, If you decide to try and beat She Be Wild in the Alcibiades I suggest you take a look at Beautician. Nice work, trainer is extremely confident, and you can't fault her for losing twice in a row to Hot Dixie Chic. I'm going to take a shot.

Hey what kind of a handicap race is the Lady Secret when Zen is carrying the same weight as her rivals. Isn't the purpose of handicap races to give the fav more weight. What a phony move that is and she won't run in the Classic , owners have ducked the boys thru her career so why go now and spoil her unbeaten streak.She can'twin against all that talent

The Rock, Great minds think alike!! Your post didn't come up untill after I posted mine. By the way, If there was a contest for best looking filly then Beautician would win hands down. She is an awesome looking grey. Hope she runs as good as she looks.

OOPS I DID IT AGAIN!! Thanks Jason.

I like Stately Victor in the 2YO race at Keeneland on Sat. Winning by 4 1/2 on the turf at the SPA is not an easy task. Should like the poly. take the shot with the outside post

Briecat needs to set moderate pace to upset Zen in Ladies Secret,dont take Briecat out of her game by strangling her early-no 25 second first quarter-23:2 is about right

Jason,

I wonder how many more are thinking like us and will help drop the odds on Beautician. lol!

Contrary to what some people think,the BCC should have plenty of pace in it with QR and Rail Trip scheduled to compete..in which the latter should be primed & ready off a freshening.He had a bad break/trip in the Pacific Classic and only lost by a little more than a length.If Rail Trip runs back to his HUGE HGC win,he's the one to beat for sure.

I'm thinking 'Parading' should have a nice stalking trip in the Goodwood.He ran a solid race last time in the Pacific Classic, cuts back to his preferred distance,meets softer foes & gets Bejerano to boot. + +  should be a decent price.

BTW: I can't wait for the 'Freeway World Series' between my beloved LA Dodgers & those hated ones, Anaheim Angels,..yup,you read it correctly.

{{{{yawn}}}}

As it happens, I wasn't quite done complaining about the choice of hoisting the <cough cough> "World Championships" for dirt racing on a non-dirt surface. It all comes down to this; even if you throw some talented horses on various surfaces into the starting gate together, the results of the "dirt" races run on ProRide are unlikely to prove anything about dirt racing or sort out the best dirt horses in the various divisions ... simply because it isn't dirt racing. Duh. I do not lay awake wondering which of the outstanding grass horses will prevail on ProRide this year, because frankly I do not care.

To my mind, all holding the dirt races on synthetics does is fool some of the connections into making the trip because the surface is brown instead of green. Oh. And it is very effective at tripping up the betting public since dirt form can become quite irrelevant with some horses, and you won't know which until it is too late. But Santa Anita and the Breeder's Cup should make out vewy vewy well.

I do think that all of the "dirt" race winners should be listed with ProRide parenthetically right after their name lest anyone confuse them with a real dirt race BC winner.

Sorry, Jason. The whole thing smells really really bad. I don't like it, and no amount of cheerleading is going to make me like it. The Breeder's Cup lost a significant step on ProRide. Period. And I still can't believe that smart people scheduled something like this once, let alone two years running.

Jason & anyone else willing to take a shot:

Check out the 7th Race at Oak Tree. This is a really deep allowance field here. Dakota Phone, Mast Track, Becrux (ITY), El Gato Malo, Neko Bay, etc.... I have been waiting for this horse to come back to synthetic surfaces to wow me again. His name is Becrux (ITY). If any of you get a chance, check out his race during the BC undercard which I believe was after the BC Classic. This horse exploded on the synthetic surface against a good allowance field and I don't believe he's been on the Pro-Ride since. He gets back on it today. Tons of back class and should get a nice pace set-up in front of him. M/L is 6-1. Too bad I can't do a 3 horse parlay of Fatal Bullett, Beautician & Becrux. Should pay pretty nice with the latter added on. Guess I'll just have to parlay the winnings over. lol. Oh, and look who gets the mount....Kieren Fallon! In town for the big stakes races at Oak Tree this weekend.

Carlos,

Even though it goes against all that I believe in helping out a dodgers fan (I'm a huge Giants fan), for your own good, jump off the Rail Trip wagon. Ron Ellis said last spring that he struggles on that surface. He just won based on a combo of pure talent and facing a suspect group of horses. In the BC, I'll be surprised if he finishes better than 7th. He won't have that same kind of kick on the Pro-Ride as he did at Hollywood turning for home.

Another paceless race in Goodwood-dont let Parading steal steal race-i still like deep deep deep closer Tiago

Mary in VT:

About the connections being "fooled" because the artificial surface is brown instead of green ... I think you are selling a lot of major horse people, like Coolmore, Godolphin, Zayat etc., short!!

I think they will be coming because they believe in their horses and want to take a shot at the largest purses in North America, as well as possibly an Eclipse.  Also, they likely are not so morally outraged by synthetic surfaces as you are.

Rock,

Oh well,but I still think RT is going to run Huge.He'll be on his toes w/the brief freshening and they'll have to catch him to cash.I'll use him in my exotics for sure.

Mary in VT,

Good luck with the 'swamp-like' surfaces you'll get @ next year's BC in KY. Along with some top-class Euros who won't show-up because of such track conditions. So next year's BC winners should have an * next to their names because they won on a sloppy track?..let it go.

Anyone know what happened to Icon Project? She was supposed to have skipped the Beldame for the Spinster but she was not entered in the Spinster. There is no mention of her in the current Blood Horse article on the entries for the Spinster. I'm really curious about this mare!

Karen, If you want to bet on Dublin do it before Saturday. If he wins the Champagne he'll be installed as the Derby favorite, IMHO.

He's a beauty, you'd love him since you appreciate the beautiful ones. He's about 16.3, big, LOTS bigger than the others his age (or even older). Of course all of Wayne's horses win best of show and he's as shiny as a copper penny. Not as much chrome as Moonlark (who almost looks like a paint with four white socks and a white spot on the belly) but still a handsome guy.

Zevida, I heard that she was going to be trained up to the BC on Drf and then I see on bloodhorse that she was entered in the Spinster. I'm confused too.

Zevida,

Whoops, my bad. got her confused with Swift Temper. I believe the trainer thought that the race was coming up too soon for her as she had two races in 16 days.

I bet he is a sight to see Shawn. I just read he stood 16.2 hands and 1250 lbs already. Wow... that's an impressive 2 year old. Sometimes a horse his size is very awkward as a two year old. He seems to be able to put all parts together and really run already. I will be cheering for him that's for sure. Afleet Alex was one of my all time favorites. I loved his story of course and I truly believe in my heart of hearts, had he not had such a horrible trip in the derby, we would have had a triple crown winner. My eyes will be on Dublin and MTB this weekend. MTB looks amazing. He appears to really be on the muscle and physically IMO just couldn't look better. His coat just shines.

Shawn P,

Wow, Moonlark is almost as fancy as Apache Cat. That is one horse I wish they'd bring to the BC though I know the timing is all wrong.

The Rock.  Agree with you comments regarding Rail Trip.  

Carlsbad over Informed Decision in the American at Keenland.  She's one fast cat...and gets a couple of pounds from ID.  

Ok, came close to the P4 at Belmont last Saturday, so i'm gonna take a shot at the Keenland P4 on Saturday without a racing form and just based on what I've seen all year.

TOCA: Informed Decision is obviously the one to beat here. Her figures on synthetics are major in here, BUT....she's shortening up to 6f's, and I'm wondering if that might be a tad sharp for her, so I'm gonna go ahead and single on CARLSBAD. This horse has been really sharp out West and doing it in really fast times and in great style. This horse has the ability to rate if need be and if you throw out her route races in which the connections got ambitious, she's a freak at sprint distances. She should get the first jump on the fave and should be able to hold on.

First Lady: Forever Together will be tough to beat in here, and maybe her price will drift up a bit off of that loss at WO. I just think its a case in where she doesn't like WO as much as any place else and the winner sneaked up the rail where she couldn't see her until it was too late. I will admit, it looks as though she's lost a step compared to last year. But she will be tough to beat nonetheless. If there's a lot of give on the turf course as expected, I'll throw in Diamondrella, Tizaqueena and My Princess Jess as sleepers.

Breeders Futurity: This is an all for me. This race usually produces big prices, and I don't expect anything less.

Shadwell Mile: If it pours like crazy on Saturday, Mr. Sidney is my play for the Makers Mark/Shadwell Mile double. He loves the off going, loves the mile and is razor sharp. Single.  BATTLE OF Hastings is dropping back to his preferred distance in my opinion but just may not be ready to tackle these yet. Justenuffhumor is a tough horse that is sharp as well, but he will be experiencing a little more cut in the ground than he's used to and is shortening up in trip. I really think his best races are from 8.5 to 10f's, but he's definitely talented enough to get the job done.

There it is.

1/4/ALL/1 = $56

Baby needs shoes!

Housholder,

Agree with your comment on Carlsbad. She's my single in the P4. Could be an "ICE COLD" Exacta (Dave "Weasel" Weaver)

Hey Jason,

Just curious. Do you know if a Shadwell 2 year old named Haabayeb (I think that's how its spelled) has run since his debut, which was back on the same day Rutherienne just squeaked out a win in a stakes race at Belmont? He ran 2nd to a Pletcher 2nd time starter who won in hand but this horse was in a drive from the word go and still had something left. I believe he's a half to a major stakes winner too. Any info would be appreciated.

Phantom,

    I think they changed the races to stakes ealier this year to attract Zen. They did it after the fuss that was made in the Vanity when she carry that back breaking 129lbs. I'm being very sarcastic about the backbreaking part. They also made the Clement H. Handicap a stakes race too. So the Lady's Secret Handicap is now the Lady's Secret Stakes. Talk about cherry picked and coddled.

Karen2, I am pulling for MTB too. I would love to see this little guy do well. He has a ton of heart.

THE PHANTOM

Do you ever have anything positive to say about a horse? If you think Zenyatta is short on talent,you must be kidding.

Right guys, Lambeau Legend ran today too. He didn't do too well but he sure is a pretty son of a gun.

Bob Frankel and Todd Pletcher are two others whose horses are always looking ready for the show ring.

Looking at Moonlark I guess Wayne doesn't believe in the old adage of 4 white stockings do without him (the nice version). Had to look twice at the marking on the belly. His sire is Gone West.

Tiz, Apache Cat runs in Australia right? That one looks like he has blinkers on when you look at him from the side, too cool. His white stockings don't come up near as high as Moonlarks and the marking on Moonlark's belly is harder to see than that bald face of Apache Cat. He sure is a neat looking horse though.

Karen if you want to see Moonlark, Tiny Woods (one of Bob B's horses) etc, go to the Legends Web site. They have pictures there of all the horses in the trlstable.

Dublin is, according to Wayne and an interview he just did:  "16-3 hands and “north of 1,250 pounds,” Lukas said." He looks every bit of that and more to me anyway.

I know Wayne's there in NY and not here, like he usually is this time of year.

Carlos, maybe I'm biased but I think a rainy day at CD is better than a smoggy, smoke and fire threatened day at Santa Anita on the synthetics.

I do like the Pacific Ocean (well not as well as beaches in Florida) and Disneyland is a great place to go.

Carlbad looked real "bad" last time at Del Mar---by bad, I meant GOOD! I love her right back---as much as i hate synthetics, i can't believe the blogger who is yawning through it all--or the guy who prefers a rainy day at Churchill over the clear Autumn sun of Santa Anita, with the San Gabriels across the way--awesome, and it's just not as smoggy anymorem what with the snog laws---they have dropped the smog levels to where a cool 70 degree/sunny day at Santa Anita is one of the great deals in ALL of sportdom---one of the greatest views in all of sports is from the Santa Anita grandstand---the old green saddling barn, with the viewing steps---that great, simple walking ring, with the bronze statue of seabuscuit---santa Anita carries legendary memories---I long for the swift return of the old speed favoring dirt track--so the Easterners can complain about THAT! No, I'm pumped about the Cup--gonna go see Zenyatta, who I'm pumped about as well--to heck with the nay sayers, Shirreffs doesn't want to try males--oh well, I still love that mare, I've always held that fillies should not have to prove themselves againstr males from 6 fur through 1 1/4---on dirt, that is---criticize the trainer, who runs the show, but never the horse, good god she gives them ten lengths every time, seems to just give it up right out of the gate, just a weird horse alltogether but a legend for always having that gear, I can think of Forego, Cougar, the sprinters Swept Overboard and Lit De justice---also the great grey stayer La Zanzara----Zenyatta surpasses all of them as a closer because she kicked in everytime--big time! Who cares if she can't beat Rachel---they'll never race each other---I can enjoy Zenyatta, phony is a hard word for a filly who has run in only Gr I's and Gr II's for almost two years....

Moonlark---What a name! I'll tell you a Moonlark story......on a cold Winter day I saw a low slung, muscular bay named Moonlark, who had just turned three, completely dust a field of older quarter horses at 440, Gr I...fastest horse in the world had just turned three---this was some thirty years ago at the track of champions: Los Alamitos.

LDP

In all respect,I defend Zenyatta and her connections much the way you did Curlin last year. If they only ran her once this year,I would still back them all the way.

Shawn P,

Yes, Apache Cat is a crack sprinter in Australia. When he has white blinkers on, combined, with that ginormous blaze, it looks like a true paint horse coming down the lane.

Crown Of Thorns had a real nice comeback race, will sit the trip off what looks to be a torrid pace....in the Ancient Title this weekend....

p.s. Karen, The quotes of the story were from the NYRA site, the story was posted yesterday There.

Matthew, yes I know all about Moonlark QH. My family had a couple by his dam sire Tonto Bars Hank and the TB Top Deck who was his great-grandsire on the sire side was the grandsire of a sire of another of ours. That sire was Jet Deck.

Dad and Papa talk about them all the time. Them and Dash For Cash.

Funny a lot of horses share names cross breed. There's a Separatist in TB racing I saw the other day.

Although Matthew? Dad said it was

Moon Lark, he was a sorrel (I checked the pedigree, that's correct) Dad says he won the 1978 All American and his Dam also foaled Bugs Alive in 75 who won the 1975 All American Futurity.

He has those and many other stats and pedigrees etc memorized.

We also had a horse by another All American winner Mr. Kid Charge and of course several by the Dash For Cash line.

Matthew- I loved him before and he did have a nice comeback race.  Hope he makes it back.  I see Zenyatta bashing is once again in full swing.  Think I'll ssit this blog out.  Have a good night

I am personally looking forward to the BC at SA again this year.  Although the Pro-Ride is NOT dirt, you appreciate great racing much more than when you have to watch a program like they had in 2007 at Monmouth in the driving rain - a very soft turf course and a "dirt" surface not recognizable.  Awful weekend!!

I live in Las Vegas.  Does anyone know if I can place a futures'  Kentucky Derby bet at a local casino?

My stars this weekend are Mine That Bird, Zenyatta,  

and Presious Passion, whether they win or not!

For the record I am a fan already. Afleet Alex was one of my all time favorites.

A.) Dublin was my best friends name in 3rd Grade

B.) I lived in Dublin Ohio many years

C.) My first schnauzer was named Dublin

D.) I lived on Dublin Rd.

I am getting my Dublin tickets today BEFORE the Champagne.  How can I not ?  Go Dublin !

Matthew W. I have been watching Crown of Thorns as well and think he will put up a good fight in the Ancient Title.

Rock, I will take The Bad Cat, since I won a buttload on him last out very high odds. Becrux does get Fallon, but I like El Gato Malo in that one.

Mike,

    We've had differing opinions before. I like Zenyatta, but can't stand how her connections have handled her. To me they have avoided all the competition. In the east, the older mares are better, and she could've raced them. In the west I believe the colts are better, so why not race her in the Goodwood. They say their horse is great yet they don't want to do anything great with her this year. She ducked One Caroline earlier this year, because they made a early and rash decision about the track, that didn't even end up wet. They say they dislike synthetics, yet run all there top horses on it, because they win. When it came to the detention barns they don't like them yet didn't race there because they have lost. To me that is hypocricy, to say you don't like something and still turn around and do it. This is my opinion, and like you dislike JJ and SA, I dislike Jerry Moss. I'm not trying to be rude just telling you that why I say differt things.

Shawn P,

It's true that the last couple of Breeder's Cups run here were hot and smokey but that hasn't always been the case.  The inaugural Cup in 1984 was a flawless, beautiful, clear, sunny day with mild temps.  the 1986 cup at SA was the same, absolutely gorgeous and cool.  The current temps in Southern California are in the low 70's and the air is clear.  Since the BC is the first week of November, it should be perfect.  The normal fall weather here is fantastic just as it is now.  I went to the 1988 BC at CD and it is was 40 degrees and rainy.  I have never been so cold in my life!  Took me 2 hours to thaw after the races.

LDP, Since when is a track that has been sealed not wet? The connections said all week that if the track came up sloppy or if it was sealed they wouldn't run.

Well Monica, the Euros prefer the cooler weather. Actually if you ask, most race horse trainers will tell you they all do. I like the dirt. CD has the highest attendance for the BC and even with all the problems KY is still the horse capital and people will come to CD, just like they do for the Derby without all the gimmicks, price decreases etc. How it'll work out if they keep 'Ladies Day' ? We'll see but Oaks Day gets 100,000+ out and that's basically ONE race. There have been bad weather days, but also good weather days just like in California where it was SO hot and smokey the time they held it previous to last year. Don't you guys have a big wildfire right now?

Dublin has no connection to any of those, trust me.

Scott had a good blog on name changes, hmmmmm.

Interesting about the breakdown rates in europe versus dirt/poly in the us.

Having experienced it all first hand on either side of the pond from a training perspective I would say that one big factor for the difference in breakdown rates is the use of pre-race medications such as bute in the US masking lamenesses.

The use of many medications close to the race(especially bute, ketofen, banamine, azium....) is not permitted in europe.

How many horses in the US would pass pre-race inspection from the state vet without these medications?

would horses that are lame without these medications be permitted to run by the state vet if the european drug rules were in place?

The legality of these drugs near to the race is allowing lame horses to appear sound enough to compete.

Perhaps this is a contributory factor to the differnce in break down rates.

Lingfield, Wolverhampton, great leighs, dundalk are all polytrack. They are considered a blessing in that the surface changes little with rain and temperature and is safe. The surface allows racing to continue through the wet and cold winter when the traditional turf courses would be damaged by racing.

trainers in newmarket have long used the polytrack when the turf tracks are too dry/wet/frozen for safe use. Fewer days of training are missed. When the turf is useable many trainers will prefer this over the poly.

Synthetics might not be the total answer but Turfway can race through january and february, Fair hill trainers miss less training. Keeneland's rice road barns are oversubscribed though the winter. Opening day at keeneland is not on a sloppy track. If races come off the turf onto the poly fewer horses will scratch helping to save the exotic wagers, the breeders cup classic will finally be a true world championship.

Synthetics are nothing new. They are decades old in europe and well recieved in countries that have much lower breakdown/fatality rates than the US. They are a help through inclement weather and ease the training process. The maintennence of these surfaces in the US appears different to european management, many of the tracks in the US becoming very hard and losing their spring. This also needs addressing. The more northern Tracks that race through the winter could all benefit from installing a poly track to get through these months. Tracks that race through good weather could stay how they are. (I am a rare englishman who is a great fan of dirt - when it is good dirt - I love it) frozen dirt, sloppy dirt, turfers on sloppy dirt: give me synthetic.

Could certain tracks install an inner poly track? 7 1/2 furlongs. trainers could breeze after thunderstorms with lower risk than the sloppy main track; turf races could come off onto the poly, mid-winter racing would not be held ransom by frozen dirt. The best of all worlds

Poly track, dirt, turf. they all have their place (probably along side each other - complementing eachother)

I, too am really looking forward to the BC, and especially to seeing the Big Z mare again.  She's a beaut.  I have been disappointed in the campaign plotted by her connections this year and have said so a number of times, and Lord knows I have always been highly complimentary toward Rachel.  

But I feel that even when you are talking about a star (Rachel), racing is still a game of "What have you done for me lately?"  Like it or not, the focus is OFF Rachel and her accomplishments and ON Zenyatta and the BC.  

So the Mosses have been slammed all year, and I see why.  However, Zenyatta will be at the BC next month.  Jess Jackson has been roundly praised all year.  However, Rachel's campaign ended Sept. 5.  I believe, considering he is a master of PR, JJ did not craft the optimum campaign for his star filly.  It ended too early in the year because she got too "tired."  Was she managed too aggressively?  I believe that is a legitimate question totally apart from her owner's aversion to synthetics and the fact the Cup will be held at Santa Anita.  

Finally, was Zenyatta managed too timidly?  Most would say yes, but time, specifically this weekend and the weekend of Nov. 6, will tell.

Shawn,

Yes,your bias has definitely gotten the best of you if you prefer horrible weather/track conditions to picture perfect weather on synths.  Most Euros do prefer their naturally cooler weather,but not wet/soggy surfaces,just ask Sea the Stars connections for example.He would've skipped the Arc if the ground wasn't anything but firm.

Disneyland is OK if you're a tourist..I guess? But,us Native Southern Californians would rather go hiking/skiing/snow boarding in these beautiful mountains,or walk/lounge on our beaches,even take a trip to the desert/Joshua Tree/Mojave all in a days work. :} Jealous?  lol

But,please continue to visit Cali,we need the stimuli.

FOOTLICK

I agree! The Zenyatta "bashers" are out in full force cause that's what they live for.

longwaytomay,

    I know what they did, but that track was not wet. Watch the replay, then look later in the day to the oaks. That track was BONE DRY. They're decision to pull her from the race was way to early, they should've waited until about a race before, not the morning of. A track, normally will not dry out in 15 to 20, but give it a few hours and it will. They pulled Zenyatta the morning of, not even giving the track a chance to dry. If it wasn't dry the race before hers, then I can understand you pulling her, but the morning of, when that track has plenty of time to dry? IMO they dodged One Caroline, cause they knew one mare would have to lose and didn't want it to be theirs.

Excellant comments from ENGLISHin KY.  The overuse of drugs in US racing is a major problem, in a industry that is in crisis, sales, handle, purse money etc.,it needs to be addressed aggressively. The numbers (fatalities) speak for themselves.  Question: The Breeders Cup Races/ World Championships, this year run at Santa Anita,for the second year in a row.  Europe is part of the world and considered an important contributor to world racing, why then don't we have a BC somewhere in Europe.  There are some superb racetracks "accross the pond" Has this ever been done or considered?

LDP,  Zenyatta dodging One Caroline?..Really?..no way! Your hatred for Zenyatta and adoration for RA has you messed up.

Carlos,

    Show me where I ever said that i said i hated Zenyatta? This is why nobody on here takes you seriously because you can't ever look up the facts before you shoot off your mouth. I have stated numberous times that I'm actually a fan of Zenyatta, but not her cowardly owners. Look up the facts next time before opening your trap.

LDP

I think Zenyatta's connections have a far better view on what's best for her than you and I. They obviously had reason to scratch her back in the summer. It's not as if they didn't have the plan of running her or they wouldn't have shipped her in the first place. It's not about what the fans want,whom have zero invested in her. I back them all the way and could care less if I'm the only one on this planet that does!  BTW Lava Man should stay retired.

I'm a little biased, as I admitted.

However I have a lot of relatives in SoCal. I've been skiing/snowboarding there but prefer Colorado or Taos in NM.

Surfing at Malibu, Trestles, Rincon etc, but is it better than Hawaii? Shrug?

I bet you need the revenue. The terminator has just about terminated your state. Did the government start shutting down like they planned?

As far as the industry being in crisis? Try telling that to the Financial industry, housing industry and the car dealers etc.

Some of the most high profile breakdowns the horses weren't pumped up on drugs.

Seems to me if people want to diss it all the time they should be doing other things, writing about baseball or whatever.

Just seems like another 'cause' to be involved in.

By the way, I hope Zen toasts them tomorrow and same with MTB.

Poor Jerry and John. They try to do what's best for the mare and they're trashed.

Mike,

    Your last sentence does not agree with the whole point of you post. You say that you trust the owners and know there must have been good reason behind what they did, yet you don't have the same respect for the connections of Lava Man. They are closest to him and should have good reason to bring him back according to what you say, right? Now, I have had past disagreements with, you, and not just on Curlin that i've kept my mouth shut on, and tolerated, because I know you better than some on here, so please don't get on me for what I believe. It is my opinion, and honestly I don't really care what Moss thinks of my opinion or even if he cares. If there is a problem with the mare, why is he still racing her? If she was healthy why can't she ship and race at least in the Mid west again? If the man hates synthetics so much, then why doesn't he take a stand against them like he did againsth the detention barns. Nothing he does is consistant with what he says. I have no respect for people like that, and I don't really care if he takes note of this or not.

LDP

One of my friends from college,that later has become a successful lawyer had a saying,"the door swings both ways". Likewise,many times you've made statements I haven't liked and I remained silent. Dani,Lava Man has run forty six times and is eight yrs. old. He cannot run forever!

LDP, I agree with most all of what you say in general, but Zenyatta ducking One Caroline?  Come on, you know that's silly.

There's a lot of Zenyatta-trashing today, I see.

I live on the West Coast. I've seen Zenyatta run. And let me tell you, watching her run down her competition time after time is a huge thrill. Maybe not as chillingly fast as Rachel, but still amazing.

Say what you want about her owners, but don't you think they know this horse a little better than we do? Sure, they've been a little over-cautious with her, but isn't that better than over-racing her and injuring her?

She's already raced and won 12 times, 7 of which were Grade 1 races. She'll race today, for her 13th straight, and I truly believe she can do it.

She won't be Horse of the Year. I respect that; Rachel has done everything asked of her this year and more, and deserves the award. But I wish people would stop finding the flaws in Zenyatta and start appreciating the things she's accomplished.

After all, to quote Trevor Denman in the 2008 Clement Hirsch, she's just "poetry in motion."

JASMINE

As a huge fan of Zenyatta from the beginning,I couldn't have said it better. Great point!

I normally wouldn't respond to a bratty,potty-mouthed teen like you-LDP,who flies off the handle when someone disagrees with any of your posts.But,in this instance I will.

Go back and re-read your posts regarding Zenyatta and you'll see that you constantly belittle her.If you're truly a fan of hers like you said,you wouldn't be nit-picking at every single accomplishment she achieves.Hypocrites do that sort of stuff.The facts are there for you to see.

Sorry,This isn't Jr.High and a popularity contest.We're supposed to post our thoughts and debate,I don't take it personal if people agree w/me or not.And if you've noticed there's ALOT of folks who don't agree w/your posts,so don't pump-out your chest too much.Especially if you've ONLY been a race fan since the Smarty Jones era.There's people on here who've been fans or been directly involved with the business longer than you've been alive,like me for instance,and still don't know it all like you seem to think you do.

That ridiculous comment about Zenyatta ducking One Caroline was just that,R-I-D-I-C-U-L-O-U-S!!...as others have noticed also.Get used to people disagreeing w/you and calling you out,that's part of life.It's good you have a passion for this great sport at your age.I've been doing it since as far back as I can remember,literally.It's just that your attitude really,really sucks when people don't agree w/you,that's all.

Carlos,

    I do not belittle her at all. I think she has accomplished a lot while taking the path of least resistance the whole way. Is that her fault, no, it's her trainer. Plus, I wasn't the one who started the insults by saying somebody hated another horse and they were messed up. I felt this way about BB last year, great horse, no competition, path of least resistance, and disgusting connections, though I'd preffer the Mosses to Dutrow any day of the week. I flew off the handle cause you said because I think she'll get beat and she's taking an easy path to the Cup, that I'm messed up. Nothing about whether you agree or disagree. Karen 2 disagreed with me the other day, but put it in a way where civilized conversation could be met. Telling somebody who is a fan of the sport, who loves horses, that they hate a horse and they are messed up is not a way to try and get a civilized response.

Oh, and let me rephrase that sentence, the Mosses ducked One Caroline, not Zenyatta. If it were up to her she would've raced and whipped One Caroline. She is great, w/o a single doubt, but her owner is so stuck on that unbeaten record he didn't want to chance it against another unbeaten who would have a much better pace advantage. Zenyatta, if it was up to her would duck no one.

bcfath - Breeders' Cup will never be run in Europe for several reasons:

1.  90% of the money raised by BC comes from American breeders/owners so they won't want to see "their" money disappear abroad.

2. US horses won't ship to Europe as a) there are no dirt tracks here and b)they will be subject to our medication rules which are far stricter than in the USA.

It would be great if more US horses shipped to run in the big races in Europe, after all European horses make the trip to the US all the time, but until US drug regulations fall into step with the rest of the racing world, I can't see it happening.