The Euros are always strong on turf.  That's their game.  Their breeding programs accentuate it, and they breed specifically for long distances as well.  Turf is an afterthought in the U.S.  Horses sold at the sales with turf breeding sell for less.  It doesn't have to be, but that's the way it is.  When's the last time that a U.S. turf champion was voted Horse of the Year?  Maybe John Henry though I can't remember for sure if he was HOY.  Oh, and the good turf horses that we do have are often Euro rejects.

Sounds like fun. I am assuming if your pick scratches, your just out of luck? Great idea Jason, and I can't wait!!

Any chance of including a finish last contest in your game?  Those are always fun.

     I do think Presious Passion has a legit shot, Yes, People will say the mile and a half will be too much for him, I disagree, He will be my pick if the likely contenders stay the same.

     Count me in on your contest Jason, The contest sounds pretty cut and dry, as far as the rules.  Looking forward to it, Whoever wins will need alot of luck, lol.  If I was fortunate to get lucky and win, As one of your prizes, I wouldn't mind the Official Breeder's Cup Classic Winner's Circle Photo with Zenyatta and her connections, Good Luck to All...

Fourcats,

American Bred, Euro Raced horses have won their share of the Turf. There is plenty of hidden turf breeding going on in North America. The hard part is spotting out the good ones.

I think I heard somewhere that Conduit is a little banged up...something with his feet. But I think Spanish Moon would have the edge over him in the Turf. He's got a bit more tactical speed and will get the jump on him with the same amount of class. This race is looking a lot like Buck's Boys' 98' Turf.

Great thinking of the BC Contest Jason. May the best handicapper win.

Maybe them euros need to get a replay of his United Nations race and one race at GP-maybe my projected time at 12 furlongs for Passion Passion is 2:23 at SANTA ANITA-most likely my projected time is stupid but I will go with it.

Hey Jason,  I agree with you re the EU horses, not only in the Turf but throughout the BCup races, there are many that could hit, so I appreciate your contest, and will send my picks.

Not to be overly critical, and this has sure been a tough year, with the exception of the exceptionals, such as Rachel, Zenyatta, Zensational, Summer Bird, but I've gone back thru your THS shows, and surely hindsight is 20/20, but your picks have been a little 'light' to be polite.  Let's review - Travers -JS-Charitable Man;Winner- Summer Bird.  Woodward JS-Rachel plus Past the Point; Past the Point-5th. Kentucky Cup Classic - Hold Me Back/Furthest Land - Winner Furthest Land, Hold Me Back-6th. Eddie Read - JS.Artiste Royal, Winner Global Hunter. Whitney - JS - Smooth Air, Winner-Bullsbay. Del Hcap - JS-Acoma -Winner Swift Temper. Goodwood - JS-Parading/Colonel John - Winner- Gitano Hernando.  Super Derby - JS. Blame - Winner, Regal Ransom.

So which horses do you pick in the BCUP.....Yikes...Good Luck....

Jason, I'm in for the contest, although I will probably give Dray a little competition.

The Euros are tough.  But, Presious Passion will be at least in a tri box.  Love the horse and the way he runs.

North American horses are looking very strong for the F&M Turf this year - plenty of homegrown (or at least American-based) talent there.

presious passion it s gonna do fast fractions like last year (1:33 4/5 for a mile )and conduit will love that ,he will be flyng late ,like last year.1st conduit ,2nd spanish moon ,precious passion tihrd.my picks

Horsepicker

You conveniently missed the fact that Jason will be wrong in the BC Lady's too.

Jason,

    Does this game have an age limit? I'd love to join the fray.

Kotashaan was champion turf horse and horse of the year in the same year, 1993

Hmm...somehow have the suspicion that Precious Passion may pull a Great Communicator...

Well shoot, Draynay, you're out if Jason means emotional age.

Jason,

    The two biggest winners you picked that I remember are Fab. Strike and Gio Ponti, lol...

I just looked at the Breeders Cup past stats to prepare for your contest.  To my surprise, the juvenile fillies has been won by the betting favorite in 7 of the last 9 runnings and 60% of all runnings.  

Does anybody know who will most likely be the juvenile filly betting favorite this year?  

Man, Dray sure does take a beating.

He has not even posted yet :)

Peace

I'll be there for sure. And i'll be sure to have a couple of cold one's right when i arrive as well.

A point to ponder--Isnt it sad that European Trainers are now pointing their horses to the Breeders Cup and american based trainers/horses think it as ho hum?

Rachel Alexandra owner Jess Jackson is gutless and afraid his might filly will lose-he knows she will lose. HOY voters should absolutely vote against RA like she lost a race. What a disgrace!

Great idea, the contest.  I think Zenyatta may screw things up if her camp doesn't plan to announce where she's running until the 3rd. Hmmmmmmm.

Ok, I finally figured out the name of the horse that will win the Derby next year. His name is Muhaaseb, from the Kiaran McLaughlin barn. Finally found his name on his web site. He raced back on 9/18 in the 2nd race @ Belmont. Jason, check out this horse's run. He's only run that one time. I don't know if he's injured, but this horse has loads of talent. You heard it here first, and I won't do a Draynay on the trail and jump ship if this horse doesn't pan out.

I thought it great news to see "Gotta Have Her" is running against the boys in the BC Turf Sprint...I like her there...

Jason,

   I already have my pick against you, Whichever way Zenyatta is pointed, I will take her, From what I read on the Live Blog, You like Music Note and if she goes to the Classic, You don't think she will take it, So the ball is in your court...

Jason

Just heard about Zen's six furlong workout.....Geez, a couple of seconds faster and she could probably go in the sprint.

Aww, I really meant mine as a joke. I forgot the smiley face.

Although....

Btw, since we so often don't have much of a chance to win the turf, I don't see why this year would be any different.

I like the Yellow Ribbon winner Magical Fantasy to take down some Euro's.  I think Einstein will be a play in the classic (He loved the Santa Anita Handicap) and I can see that Jason follows some west coast action ZENSATIONAL.  Don't budge on this one.  

R.Howard,

    Man, You sure seem to have a hatred for Mr. Jackson and Rachel, It's OK, Take deep long breaths! Question, I always wanted to know, What role did you like playing better?  Was it Opie or Richie Cunningham?, Thanks...

Jason: I'm a loyal reader of the blog, though not often a "poster".  I will buy you a Woodford Reserve at Santa Anita.  Just name the time and place.  Yes, I am a Brown-Forman guy.

rhoward,

    I guess you think Holly Bull shouldn't have won HOTY either, considering he stopped racing after the Woodward and never ran in the Classic.

Oh thanks Jason,

Lol, I'm so glad I'll be able to join and kick the big boys' butts. Girl Power baby.

Jason!,

    I'm loyal but I have high school on Friday! Darn, I love the live chats too, they're so fun. Oh, I know I use to post last year, but this year they blocked Blood Horse, so I can't get on BH to get on to BCC in order to live blog. Grrr. This is why I don't like high school.

JASON

I haven't a doubt that Zenyatta will win whatever race  she enters.

one since we agreed to pick win & place, why not squeeze exactas in for reward.

Laz- it was a great work.  22 and change last quarter.  And she had two workmates.  Reminded me of when they had to triple and quadruple team Buckpasser so he would get something out of his works.  I also like the statement that if they were just pointing for the Ladies all she would need to do were maintenance works.  But, he must be training with his heart and not with his head-lol!

My sentimental favorite is Interpatation.  His rally before the wire in the JH Turf Classic vs Gio Ponti was simply one of the most exciting moments in racing this year.

Go get 'em, old fella!

Art does not support the 'jshandler' bashing here.  Guy writes the most readable and enjoyable, as well as thought provoking blogs on this site, besides Haskins (no offense JS).  Plus the guy sticks his neck out every week and makes picks.  Haven't seen many plays from the guys calling him out.  

Not only will the euros dominate on the turf,  they will also be taking home another Classic win as well.

As for the turf- I'd rather see Dar Re Mi in the fillies.  She's been in great form this year, but she still seems a cut below Conduit and the improving Spanish Moon.  They will all have to reel in Precious Passion since it doesn't look like there is anything to run with him.  I'll have to wait for the pre-entries to see who else is running.  I like Magical Fantasy in the ladies turf.  She's done nothing wrong lately.  Dar Re Mi would be a formidable adversary here.  But I've seen Euros hate the Santa Anita turf before-i.e. Intrepidity- so again I'll wait and see the entries.  Are they sending Rainbow View?

Woodford Reserve??? I'm there!!!

Anyway....It's the year of the girls...Dar Re Mi to take the Turf.

Also, Whoa don't remind me about Kotashaan.  Never have figured out how he beat out Lure for those honors.

The Europeans are favored on turf -- this is news?

householder

dont be giving away the winner in the classic, people forgot about einstein, SHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

RHOWARD

You refer to Jackson as "gutless". Where have you been? Do you even realize what an idiot remark that is considering the races Jackson entered RA in this year? RA and owner displays considerable courage. You haven't a clue!

Sounds fun Jason. You know, I do appreciate your interaction with the fans who post on these blogs, and I'm sure others do as well. Engaging folks in conversation is a great way to increase interest in this tremendous sport. Thanks!

@FourCats,

Kotashaan won HOY honors in 1993. He was foreign bred but American raced, such  a great racehorse. He had an awesome campaign that year. IIRC, he went 9 for 10 and burned them in Turf.

Footlick

Got your drift.....the biggest heart of all is in Zenyatta. lol

did you know spanish moon is banned from racing in england after repeated starting stall misdemeanours? just in case anyone was wondering why he always runs abroad.

A 6-year-old has never won the Turf.  Presious Passion, Grand Couturier, Just As Well and Interpatation are all age 6 and over.  I'm not confident that any of them are good enough to break the age barrier.  

Then again, with the field fairly loaded with old guys this might be their year to finally break through, but I'm going with a Euro horse by default anyway.    

Great idea...Finally a "Contest" that helps the Longshot players!!!!

I will give you my "3- Star,Double XX Special" next week.

Vince, what are starting stall misdemeanors and specifically what are Spanish Moons misdemeanors?  Thanks

irish, that's a good question. I don't exactly know what he did. I would imagine it is general sort of shennanigans, not going into the starting gate. holding everything up. I think britain has a three strikes and you're out policy. mess up too often and you're banned. they run a pretty tight town over there by the looks of it.

Vince- you're right.  He refuses to load and acts up if I remember correctly.  I think he did that in his last race too, but not to the extent that he used to.

Two words: FIELD COMMISSION!!!!!! (Winner of the Nearctic at Woodbine) by no less than Service Stripe by Deputy Minister..flying under the radar ..GO BABY GO!

If Zenyatta wins ANY race Breeders Cup week I will wear a pink hat to the Derby that says, "I WAS WRONG"

Vineyard was a beast today !!! The horse has NEVER lost a G1 race.  I know he was DQ'd in one but it's pretty impressive.  Way to go Vineyard.

I will be amazed if this years Turf doesn't fall to a European horse.  There was some media concerns expressed that Conduit had a problem and may not run but he was out on the Heath at Newmarket yesterday and worked well.  My own preference is for Spanish Moon, he is currently banned from racing in the UK because he played up badly at the gate on 3 occasions and was therefore excluded from racing by the BHB.  He's allowed to run in France and has won his last 2 starts, a Group 1 at St.Cloud and then a Group 2 at Longchamp and he's trained by Michael Stoute for Juddmonte Farms.    

He's now a 5 year old but hasn't been over-raced as he had an injury at the beginning of his 3 year old career which kept him off the track for almost a full season.  Up until his injury he was seen as Stoute's Derby horse and has always been highly regarded by those very clued up people at Juddmonte.

I will put my neck on the line and say the European's will have another banner year at this year's BC.  I also expect Proviso to prove she was a very unfortunate loser at Keeneland the other day by winning the Filly & Mares Turf.  My banker bet for the entire meeting is from your side of the pond and is Zensational in the Sprint.  Baffert is sure to have him fully wound up and he'll take a power of beating.      

Just heard Moss on the Roger Stein Show---I feel bad for the man, for the way things shook out for him--He'd very diplomatic about the way California Racing has veered off into synthetics, very diplomatic about not being able to face off with Rachel (no time for the Woodward/they waited to announce their intentions between Travers and Woodward) and now he can win the Classic going away and still not get HOY because Rachel beat older at 1 1/8 by a head, two satly vets named Macho Again and Bullsbay, who would both be 30-1 if the ran in the Classic!

Kotashaan beat Lure because 1 1/2 is the classic distance for turf, not one mile, although Lure was some animal! Best US miler (turf) ever? Surely one of the best ever, and that includes the entire world!

FYI,

   Off subject a little, But, What a turn of foot this two year old colt has, His name is St. Nicholas Abbey from across the pond, Trained by Aidan O'Brien, He won yesterday with a burst from the back of the pack, He is now three for three, Here is the video(Not in English), Watch the horse with the purple cap in the back of the pack down the stretch, Impressive...

www.youtube.com/watch

Also, Watch a two year old filly in the first race at Belmont today, Her name is Agapantha...

Draynay I recall you played the "she couldn't handle the track" card when your Music Note lost last year--what, pray tell, has changed in a year? The fact is, you and I both know she liked the pro ride last year, she ran lights out, is a top filly and probably is the horse to beat this time--I know Zenyatta is doing real well, she worked Fri and according to Moss ahe is fantastic---will be cross entered---If she runs in Classic, I don't think you'll need to wear that hat, but if she goes Friday, I think you may get a few propositions on Derby Day!

Draynay, I can't help but wonder what might have been with VH if he hadn't been purchased and taken overseas where he so obviously didn't belong. I don't think he liked the weather :)

Dray- Vineyard Haven has run two great races since he's come back.  Glad to see that after his dismal showing in Dubai.

Precious Passion will be over 10-1 in the Breeders Cup, despite having won over the course! There is no way you can compare his US races with the Euro races--no way, not even close! I love the horse, but to think he'll wire those guys in the Cup--is wishful, at best...

Matthew W.,

It's comical that you minimize when a 3-year old filly beats older males at 1 1/8M by stating those males would be 30-1 in the Classic.

Any horse Zenyatta beat this year would be 300-1 in the Classic, so I'm unsure what your point proves. Also, Zenyatta's campaign was mapped out and they never intended to run elsewhere, correct?

Why do you feel sorry for Mr. Moss? Zenyatta is an amazing mare. No one would argue that, but Mr. Moss could have taken risks and run her all over the country like Mr. Jackson did with Rachel, but he didn't...and he never intended upon doing so. Zenyatta is a fully developed mare, whereas Rachel is still maturing. If anyone should have been taking risks THIS year, it should have been Zenyatta...not the other way around.

Rachel defeated the Kentucky Derby winner, the Belmont/Travers/JC Gold Cup winner, the Whitney winner, the Stephen Foster winner, etc. No matter what you claim, it's unheard of for a 3-year old filly to not only take on, but also defeat older males. That took courage on Mr. Jackson's part to put her in that race, especially given the the long and challenging year Rachel already completed.

Past winners of the Woodward include Curlin, Saint Liam, Ghostzapper, Mineshaft, Skip Away, Cigar, Holy Bull, Easy Goer, Alysheba, Spectacular Bid, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Forego, Damascus, Gun Bow, Kelso..........the race is no joke so please don't make it one.

I just can't stand it when folks fail to recognize the accomplishments of Rachel Alexandra. She won at 7 different tracks...she eclipsed the records of Ruffian while being eased. She was the first filly to win the Preakness in 85 years, and she was the first horse -- male or female -- ever to win from the far outside post. When she won the Woodward, she set suicidal fractions that wilted her early challengers, and yet she showed tremendous courage and heart in not letting Macho Again pass. How can you not recognize the magnitude of these accomplishments???

You have completely twisted things around to make it seem like Rachel took the easy way out, while Zenyatta somehow faced stiffer competition. This couldn't be further from the truth.

If you have any facts to back up your claims, I'd love to hear them ;-)

Jason, seems like you're ready to get down during BC week huh.Sounds like fun,don't work too hard during your vacation-like assignment my man.Count me in.When are you setting foot in Cali?..

Just in case,there's plenty of excellent Breweries/Bar-b-Que joints in and around the Arcadia/Pasadena/LA area. You like Mexican food?...just ask! I have the hook-ups  :}

Would you mind if I bring Ted for motivation, Shawn for positive reinforcement & Draynay for ....ok,maybe not.

Draynay, I think you will be wearing a pink hat to the Derby saying "I was wrong." Zenyatta had one heck of a work. Jason, I think we have a shot in the Classic. A Euro is not a given.

Vineyard Haven was all out to beat one of the lowest rated G-1 races anywhere at anytime in recent memory.  The class in this race was even lower than the class in a certain other G-1 race run at Saratoga.

Gayego in the sprint!  Last in the Kentucky Derby first in the Breeders Cup Sprint... go figure.

Can anyone answer why they are going to put poor MTB in the Classic?  Do they really need 6th place money ?

From my vantage point the Euros have no extraordinary edge this year contrary to what many people think.  Their best shots are in the BC Mile with Goldikova and in the BC Turf Classic with Conduit or Dar Re Mi.  If the latter goes in the BC Fillies & Mares Turf I think that Pure Clan will have her measure at 10 Furlongs.  As for the BC Classic I am looking for a shut-out of the Euros by Quality Road, Summer Bird and Mine That Bird. Mastercraftsman poses their biggest threat in this race but even Zenyatta could upstage him if she runs.  My feeling is that the connections are priming her for a shot at being considered for HOTY.  Also a loss in this race would not lower her stocks as much as if she should be humbled by Careless Jewel (Rachel Alexandra's deputy) in the Distaff.

BTW, many people think that Zensational is the surest thing on the BC card but I tell you again, coping with that Canadian "bullet" is gonna prove "fatal" for him at the death.  I say that the surest shots to win are Careless Jewel in the Distaff and Interactif in the BC Juvenile Turf (this colt is one of a couple of monsters in Todd Pletcher's barn being set up to break his Kentucky Derby "duck" next year) so watch them carefully.

DRAYNAY

Like youself,I am and was a fan of VH from the beginning. He ran well yesterday for sure.

    Jason, it's a shame you have to be off at the Breeders Cup, lol.  I'll miss you in the media room at Churchill.  I'll be there Saturday of BC and maybe Friday, but don't know yet.  I'll have to catch you the Friday after Thanksgiving.

    Anyway, a few of my early picks are Crown of Thorns if he goes in the "Dirt" Mile, Beautician in the Juvenile Fillies and I'll use her with Always A Princess in an exacta, Spanish Moon in the Turf, Einstein in the Classic & the horse I'll be reaching he furthest with will be Capt. Candyman Can in the Sprint.  I would love to see Ian Wilkes win the Sprint with him after he has stuck to his guns and done right by the horse.  It had to be tempting to try the Captain around 2 turns again, but like I said, he stuck to his guns and hopefully he's rewarded for it.  I think the race will set up nicely for him as well.  Only question might be, will he like the surface?  But then again, that's a question many will have to answer.

    Finally for R Howard, Jess Jackson might not be the most liked person by many, but he's far from gutless.  He brought Curlin back to race as a 4 year old and sent him to the BC Classic at the end of the year to run over the polytrack.  He did his part to give what most all of us wanted and that was a matchup b/w Big Brown and Curlin.  It was just a shame that Big Brown was injured and subsequently retired before we could see it.  He's raced RA against 3-year-old colts twice this year and older males once.  I don't know about you, but to me that's anything but gutless.

Laz- it wasn't the strongest field but that only seems to matter when Zenyatta runs.  At least give the horse credit for running a nice race second off the layoff.  And his field in the race before was solid and he did finish first even though he was dq'd.  

JASON,

You should run a poll on whether Zenyatta will run in either the Distaff or the BC Classic.  I wonder how many people think that John Sherrif wants her to face Rachel's deputy (Careless Jewel). LOL. Too much at stake there, I think.  What say you?

Draynay, Arcangues and Volponi both didn't look like Classic winners, would you have suggested that they shouldn't run in the Classic? Mine That Bird is a good enough horse to have a shot at the Classic, and even if he doesn't do any well, he still would have deserved a shot.

Dar Re Mi will go for the Turf as she is better suited to the trip and will also get the filly/mare weight allowance of 3lb.

A decision has not been made on Rainbow View and Lahaleeb will not run due to the high entry cost ($160,000).

Henry Cecil is sending Midday for the F&M Turf, as well as Twice Over (Classic) and Father Time (*cough* Marathon)

If Zen runs in the Classic and wins, she'll have the distinction of being the first filly/mare to win the Classic.  Even if she doesn't get HOY, 14-0 and the first female winner of the Classic will leave a pretty good legacy.  I hope they run her in the Classic.

Footlick

I've got nothng against Vineyard Haven.....I think he's a pretty good horse.....I'm simply stating that his so called G-1 field was mainy ex-claimers......most of which would be 99-1 in the BC sprint.

Zenyatta would definately have a shot in the classic but she's never raced against males.  I don't understand why the Moss's haven't put her against males.

One thing that always baffled me to this day is that Bayakoa, as great a race mare as she was, couldn't beat males.  It just didn't make sense to me.  Never having raced males, I wonder if Z will go against them in her last race.  Wonder why they have waited this long to try it.

Laz- I know you don't, but I just thoink he's run two gutsy races in comeback.  Hopefully he'll train on at 4.

Ranagulzion, I think Zenyatta will run in the distaff.  I seriously doubt her trainer is too afraid of Careless Jewel for numerous reasons:

No horse has won the Ladies Classic the same year she broke her maiden.  Careless Jewel broke her maiden this May.

CJ has never raced on pro-ride.  She's only won one G1 race in her career.  She's only beat two G1 winners and both are 3-year-old one timers.  In that respect, she has the weakest record of the probable starters.  

CJs Beyers regressed from 106 to 98 in her last race.  Not a good sign for an inexperienced filly entering the toughest race of her career.

Zenyatta is ranked #5 in the World Thoroughbred Rankings.  CJ is ranked #42.

CJ's jockey has never had a BC mount.  Outside Canada, he's won one G1 and three G3s lifetime total and none were in California.  

Zenyatta's jockey holds the Ladies Classic most wins record.  He also holds the most overall BC wins record of all jockeys still riding.  The only jockey with more total wins is Jerry Bailey, but Smith's BC win percentage is higher.  And the distaff is at Smith's home track where he ranks in the top 10 riders.

72% of all Ladies Classic past winners were older females.

CJ's home country Canada has won the Ladies Classic one time.  The US has won 100% of the Ladies Classic runnings at Santa Anita and 21 times total.

So other than your "Rachel's deputy" theory, what handicapping method are you using to determine that Careless Jewel is so incredibly formidable?

js i have a similar contest i play against the new york post handicappers the point system is 10 points for first 5 points for second and one point for third also my pick to win the classic is ouality road pro ride will not be a problem his sire is the same as raven pass  

I was sad to hear that Indian Blessing wouldn't be running in the F&M Sprint for two reasons. She would be a play against due to the fact that she doesn't perform as well on synthetics than dirt and the money she would be taking in, which will now go to Ventura & Informed Decision.

America's Dream Team

Presious Passion

Mine that Bird-Since there was some shoe issue last race which has been taken care, this horse should show that Explosive kick this horse had in Kentucky Derby which he won to all those horse players who have forgoten.

Mine that Bird worked 58 flat-Looks like he likes his new shoes.

Sounds like he ready for the big race

Jason,

I was watching the 88 Breeders Cup this morning and the commentators were talking about how "Equitrack" was going to the US by storm and be installed in the majority of tracks. Back then, Remington Park had this synthetic surface installed. Do you remember when/why Remington went back to a traditional dirt surface?

Looks like Peta is going to ruin Cal racing with 25 percent takeout on each bet

peta members in state goverment-time to weed them out

Monica:

From what I can see, Bayakoa only raced against males twice in N/A…..The G-3 San Diego Hdcp., when she was second at one to two to Quiet American (a G-1 winner of the NYRA Mile-later named Cigar Mile and which included multiple G-1 winners); and the 1990 Santa Anita Hdcp…..This race included heavy hitters including Ruhlmann, Criminal Type and Flying Continental…….These races were not cheap G-1 fields and would have been a challenge for any filly or mare to defeat.

Like you, I hope that Zen tackles the Classic…..I think based on the comments about her latest workout and the actual workout procedure that she might try it…..It would be a fitting addition to her legacy because, as much as I like Rachel, and I really do, I don’t think Zen would have had any trouble beating the fields she defeated, and yet in many circles Rachel is being touted as a super filly and Zen is simply remembered as a poly specialist who defeated average horses (this is BS of course).

Another reason I would like to see her win the Classic is so that our PRESIDENT (Princess-D) OF THE PINK HAT SOCIETY will show up at Churchill on Derby day.

Paula let me state clearly for the record Zenyatta has NO CHANCE in the Distaff.  Music Note is now an older and much improved horse and Zenyatta is not.  Let's remember she just barely won 2 races ago and only won by a length in her last because Lethal got stuck behind horses. Ignore those facts all you want but when she gets whipped in the Distaff and you don't understand why remember this post.  She has been running against average competition and there is nothing average about Music Note and Careless Jewel.  Music Note is simply too good and will dominate.  Vineyard Haven won on a tough track in tough circumstances and still no credit. No love for him but love for a constant loser in MTB ?  They could race him in 10 more Graded Stakes and he won't win.  He is not a Graded Stakes horse.  Yes we know he won the Derby.  Let me know when he wins another Graded Stakes of ANY KIND ANY WHERE.  Maybe he would have a chance in the Little Brown Jug.

Trainer of the week at Sanita anita

A Avila for his Kalookan Storm victory-I did not play it

Rhoward , i totally agree with you Jesse knew she couldn't win beyond 9 furlongs against the real type of comp she would have faced and distance. His ego still get over the fact that Curlin was also ran in last years cup on this track and he was afraid to see RA get beat.

Mike R, yea she ran against some good horses and won she is impressive up to 9 furlongs .They ducked the Belmont , Tavers and Jockey because of the distances and comp, that's a fact!As for the other supposed super star, yatta yatta doo  she hasn't tried the boys at all on her fav surface -why not, she's had 2 years to do it- yet no show??? She won't run in the Classic unless there are more sratches of the fav's. They want her to remain unbeaten, retire unbeaten but truth is neither of these horses deserve to be HOY without running against the best comp and at a mile and a quarter otherwise Zenzational should be considered  for  HOY if distances are meaningless. I don't think Rhoward hates he just is disappointed as most race fans are that she won't run because of the phony excuse of the track or she's tired by Jesse. 9 furlong specialist that's it and same with Yatta yatta doo till she proves different.If by a longshot the owner goes for the real classic she'll find plenty of closers and much stiffer comp then the same old fillies she has beaten  at SAME WEIGHTS!Prove it on the track against the best or the HOY if either wins is PHONY!

I just read that MTB, THE LITTLE HORSE THAT APPARENTLY IS RACING FOR SIXTH MONEY IN THE CLASSIC, recorded a 5-F work in 58.20 at S/A (fastest of the day - Red Ransom went in 58.40).

The workout was faster than trainer Chip Woolley intended, but Mine That Bird had an excuse - a fellow Breeders' Cup runner was on the horizon. The filly Lethal Heat, a candidate for the BC Ladies' Classic, broke off about 10 lengths in front of Mine That Bird and gave the 3-year-old a distant focus.

When interviewed Chip said:

"The only part of his workout that is really important is the final quarter-mile.  He finished big today and galloped out big past the wire."

I wonder why a certain Pink Hat specialist didn't include MTB when making his usual derogatory statement about ZEN?  Perhaps we can encourage him to amend his statement and go for the daily double.....Pink Hat and Pink Panties.

Steve,

I'm not bashful to say that having been in this game for a few decades well I've become pretty good at spotting extraordinary talent in thoroughbreds before all the waggonists (no personal references to you here) have gathered the statistics and decide to get on board.  There are some intangible qualities hidden in the running style, sustained pace and the way a horse dominates the competition with authority while still running green that Beyer speed figures by themselves do not capture until that horse has matured, been fully extended or seriously tested.  In addition, (this may sound superfluous) the horse knows nothing about a jockeys winning statistics except how he/she is handled and responds to that particular jock.  

In the case of Careless Jewel I can hardly wait to see her strut her stuff in the Distaff under the very capable Canadian rider Robert Landry.  Steve I think that you are going to get some answers to your questions about her Beyer figures and Jockey's competence etc after the fact.  I guess that this is one aspect of the game that is so enjoyable, to see doubters turned into shouters a-la-Rachel Alexandra, when an awesome talent is tested and unveiled.  I was on board Rachel's waggon from quite early, were you Steve?

Except for her gray/roan coat she looks awefully similar to "big bad" Rachel in talent, running style and the authority with which she dispatches the competition.  I hope that you'll have the courage to come back here and say Ranagulzion told me about Careless Jewel and how to get on board with champions of that ilk from early in their careers before the waggonists come running. LOL.

Let us enjoy my friend.  What is also great about this game is that as one champion exits another emerges.

I am a little late joining this blog..but while reading through all the comments I laughed so hard I almost choked on my lunch when I read Jason's "6 year old" age limit comment. That was funny Jason.

I like Zen. She will have her work cut out for her if she runs in the classic, but I don't think they will. Dray....put on your pink derby hat. The fillies won't beat Zen.

The only CONSTANT LOSER on this blog is you know who.  He could have two choices in a match race an still not get it right.

Laz- and Bayakoa was giving actual weight to Quiet American instead of getting a weight allowance.  It was a gutsy performance by her.

The Phantom, you said that Zen and RA had to run against the best in order to be considered the best...I say this with humor and affection...exactly how many defeats did these two have between them this year in all their Grade 1 wins? ZERO

How many records? Several.

They ARE the best this year.

PS Rachel will stomp them next year at a mile and a quarter and more.

Draynay, are you totally stupid? In Europe we've worked out that synthetic surfaces are just like Turf. Therefore it might not matter one bit whether Music Note has improved. So far all she has shown is that she's improved on Dirt. And are you so stupid not to factor into account the fact that Music Note will not be receiving weight off Zenyatta this year? The there's the fact that Music Note's best win this was over 7f. I couldn't care less about the rest of the race but you will find it's Music Note that won't be winning. You need top class acceleration on synthetic surfaces - pure and simple she doesn't have it. In England we have Betfair, so I can just lay Music Note. In other words back her not to win. Thank you for the motivation.  

Dray, I think VH is gorgeous...too bad for the DubaiDebacle..I think he would have excelled had he stayed here...never know...woulda, shoulda, coulda doesn't count...

Matthew, we'll probably all get very old waiting for a filly like RA to come around again...

Dray,

You know what the biggest fact you ignore about Zenyatta? 13 for 13.

Phantom,

Have you forgotten Rachel won the Preakness at 1 3/16M from far outside post....a feat no other male or female ever accomplished in that race?

Horse of the Year doesn't weigh solely on Breeder's Cup...nor should it. Breeder's Cup is one day and should not negate an entire year of brilliance. Otherwise...the award should be renamed to "Horse of the Breeder's Cup." I don't know...doesn't sound right to me.

It's a shame people can't see something great when it's right in front of their face! Also, we finally have an owner willing to run his champions for more than one year and you claim he is egotistical and also afraid of competition.

Thank goodness the turfwriters know something about the rich history of horse racing and what it takes to earn HOY honors.

Oh, and I especially enjoyed your ridiculous version of "the facts." They ducked races because of distance/competition. Ha! That's hysterical! You should try stand-up.

Fabio

the answer to your question is TOTALLY.

So now Carlsbad isn't going to the F&M Sprint. Who's gonna beat Ventura & Informed Decision?

Hey Footlick:

When I look at the PP, Bayakoa not only gave Quiet American 7 lbs. in the San Diego, in the Santa Anita Derby she also gave HOY Criminal Type (2nd) 3 lbs., the winner Ruhlmann and 3rd place finisher Flying Continental 1 lb…..In her last 21 races she never carried less than 120 lbs……She was one tough gal!

One thing Draynay is NOT is "stupid".

Ranagulzion,...2 words for you: 'Jose Adan'...lmfao!  Also,NO filly or mare will beat Zenyatta in the BC.Good luck w/that.

Jason, OH! It's On! I'll be on vacation the next 4wks.Will definitely plan to boogie the week of the BC.

If we're going to continue to harp on which filly/mare has run against the weakest fields, then let's at least talk about the one who has run against the strongest males this year.  Ventura deserves all the credit, having given a big scare to Gio Ponti and winning the Woodbine Mile.  Ferneley, who finished second at Woodbine, won the Del Mar Mile with AllicansayisWow second and Lethal Heat third.  Where have we seen those two names before?  Oh yes, they are the glorified claimers mentioned by many previously. How did they do that????  Ventura has run against the toughest males this year.  Of course, she's only started four times this year and lost twice- once to Gio Ponti and once to Informed Decision.  But still, only four starts up to the BC.

Fabio- I don't agree with calling Dray stupid even though many do here, but I also handicap synthetics like turf.  

Laz- Can you imagine giving those horses 3lbs and 1lb then factor in the weight concession she was supposed to get from them?   And giving Quiet American 7lbs??? That's how much respect the track handicappers had for her.  She was tough, fast and consistent.

LAZMANNICK,

      I honestly don't think Draynay could have picked the winner in the 1980 Woodward Stakes at Belmont...

Your name is "Fabio" and you want to know if I am stupid?  Lol... enough said.  Look, I just want to scream and yell and throw things against the wall.  I am so tired of listening to this Zenyatta garbage I just can't take it anymore.  Anyone with any knowledge in racing will admit Zenyatta has been barely getting by average competition.  Please notice how easily Music Note won the Beldame.  Watch her last two races and then tell me how you can think Zenyatta and her guarded perfect record has a chance against an older more improved Music Note.  Isn't she wonderful? Isn't she the best? No ! She is not the best she is a poly specialist that couldn't or wouldn't race out of California all year and California racing like it or not is a JOKE.  3 years from now 2 out of the 3 remaining tracks will be shopping malls ! Will there be pictures of Zenyatta at Churchill ? Belmont ? or Saratoga ? Nope, but maybe they will hang one in the Bebe store at the mall where the finish line use to be.  13 for 13 big deal its like the Pittsburgh Steelers playing Lenoir Rhyne 13 times and bragging they beat them 13 times in a row.  COMPETITION MATTERS !!!

May I remind a few of you who don't know about youtube to take a look back just 60 days ago and watch what Music Note did to Informed Decision and Indian Blessing.  Music Note got a couple of taps and blew them away by 5 like they were standing still. You honestly think Zenyatta will catch up to that?  How silly.

The filly I love is Lethal Heat...I wonder if she'll really run the two BC races Friday and Saturday...

I can't find Godolphin's last Breeder's Cup win.  Have they ever won a BC race?  

Scarletandgraypimpernel.  Don't get me started on Lure.  Best turf miler both sides of the pond 2 years in a row.  Another reminder that HOY is a joke.

Ruhlmann was a monster.  I think he held Santa Anita records for the mile.  Too much early speed for Bayakoa.  She was used to getting things her way.

Il Fornaio in "Old" Pasadena (Colorado Blvd) has good Italian food.

Magical Fantasy...

Unlike the 3-Year old who have won the BC Classic, MTB seems to be going the wrong way.  Sunday Silence threw in a clunker in the Swaps but was coming back into form (Super Derby).  I don't see MTB doing much of anything except being a morning glory.  

Gayego does look interesting with his last effort over that track.  

Draynay

You know where you can find a picture of Zenyatta anytime you want.....in the Racing Hall of Fame.

Ruffian and da3horse, you both are funny, she ran against the best-ha ha ducked the travers, jockey and belmont can't go beyond 9 furlongs, the owner knows it and didn't want to face defeat case closed.Curlin was a also ranin the classic so his ego can't take another hit.'she'll never go beyond 9 furlongs and no way at a mile and a quarter , she ducked those longer distances thanks to Jesse and his ego.She's very good but still hasn't faced the likes of the comp coming to the breeders. those filly races she ran in were a joke a mere breeze she hadd 3tough races against the boys that's it and at short distances.she almost got caught by macho and any further she was going to be caught and he's no world beater .It's so obvious he didn't want to race her beyond 9 furlongs again.As for the other yatta they have avoided all the cap races out west, distances at1 and a quarter and the boys for 2 years now -why? I stand by what i said she won't run against the boys in the real classic and as far as the other is concerned they'll do the same next year 9 furlongs and avoid the tough comp. I guess Fl or Ala should not bother to play in the SEC championship or BCS since they are unbeaten. Win it on the track, Summer Bird won 3 better grade 1's then she did and  yea owner didn't want to face a maturing horse at a real champions  distances again!

Greg

I understand that the Bid had a tougher time in his walkover in the '80 Woodward than Rachel had agaisnt the field she was in against this year.....just joking.

Footlick:

I'm starting to get the impression that our president of the Pink Hat Society doesn't like Zenyatta....I hope on halloween that all the kids that visit him come dressed as Zen and MTB.....Of course he will have the perfect handout for all of them.....used mutual tickets.  I understand he has tons of them, probably enough for next year as well.

Thanks Dray for bringing up competition. RA beat nobody in the Preakness, a fact you have agreed with since you dis MTB so often. Zenyatta won with 129 pounds in a Grade 1-Highest weighted winner of the year in a Graded stakes. RA won in the MUD(any mud lover can win), east coast racing is just silly when half of the days really do not show who is better because of the weather. RA beat a bunch of claimers in the WOODWARD. Those horses would have serious problemes in a allowance race at Anita. Has anyone heard that the Great Zenyatta will be traveling to Churchill after the BCC?

Ruffian I said I felt bad for Moss, who had (hardly) one chance to try Rachel--The Woodward, where Jess waited to announce his intent to run there (instead of Travers vs 3yolds) until Team Zen hadn't the time to prepare---then, after a (great) eight month season, Jess decided to take the Fall off--so that's all I'm saying, I guess the closest thing to compare it to is Winning Colors v Personal Ensign, where the DERBY Winning Filly (and Santa Anita Derby by ten), went across the country to face off with the older champ---Moss and his filly never got that respect!

Dray- too bad the filly/mare BC race isn't at 7 furlongs then.  Let her sprint against Informed Decision on synthetic and see where she finishes.  And Indian Blessing was flat that day- as we all could see.  You need to open your eyes.  Unbridled Belle is not much this year.  Lethal Heat and AllicansayisWow have done more.  If they are claimers, Unbridled Belle must be a cheap claimer.  

I'm not saying Big Z could win HOY over Rachel, I AM saying if Summer Bird bags the Classic that would be three of the top five 1 1/4 races in the US vs ZERO for Rachel--her romp over him notwithstanding, I would cast my vote his way--1 1/4 IS the proving ground for thoroughbreds, Rachel; is a freak, but so is Zensational, so was Lure, so was Ruffian, but if there's a dominant stayer at 1 1/4, THAT horse should get HOY!

Householder,

    I believe Godolphin has had three winner's in the BC, Daylami in the Turf in 1999,Fantastic Light in the Turf in 2001, Tempera in the Juvenile in 2001.  Godolphin has had 39 starters, And, I believe they could have at least 12 entries this year?

R.Howard,

    Just to give you a head's up, A huge majority of the REAL experts in the sport of Racing(The ones that make a living from it), Well, They are all in agreement that Rachel's three year old campaign is one for the ages, So, No offense to you, But, I happen to agree 100 percent.  Another thing, This might shock you, But, I also think Zenyatta is incredible and will win whatever race she is entered in at the Breeder's Cup!  Look at that, I can actually respect BOTH Champions?  Maybe you should try doing the same?, You don't have to keep beating one up to bolster the other, It really isn't needed...

Laz- I just think he likes to say things to get people stirred up.  I have alot to say on the subject but I said I wouldn't get sucked into it again. But..... Unbridled Belle is not even in as good of form as Lethal Heat.  AllicansayisWow and Lethal Heat ran second and third to Ferneley, who was second to Ventura in the Woodbine Mile.  Ventura was edged out by Gio Ponti.  We aren't talking dirt for this Breeder's Cup so turf form is very relevant.  That should tell you about the competition that Zenyatta has been easily dominating.  If the BC was on dirt, Zenyatta would have run on dirt.  Those are the facts.

rhoward, I would comment but after reading your entire post I decided to watch paint dry.  LAZMANNICK I have no problem with Zenyatta except she is easily the most overrated horse since Bellamy Road.  A picture of her in the Hall of Fame? Yep, 20 years from now people will ask who was Zenyatta and I will tell them she was a very good filly who raced in California and never raced at Saratoga, Belmont, or Churchill but she did win in California on a Poly track.  What's a poly track you say?  Believe it or not its sand, poly fibers and recycled rubber and as long as Zenyatta stayed on that stuff in California she won.  No female was as good as Zenyatta running on sand, poly fibers and recycled rubber.  Boy when she came roaring around the corner she would just float on that sandy, poly fiber, recycled rubber like no one else.  She was the best sand, poly fiber, recycled rubber horse I ever saw.

I have heard that Zenyatta may make an additional race this year in Churchill after the BC, the Clark Handicap. If that is the case and she wins both the BCC and the Clark, she postively can be Horse of the Year (hands down)

Dray--I GET that you don't like rubber band track surfaces--I get it! Fact is neither do I....I DON'T get that you equate horses that win on them as any less legit of a good horse---Face it, there are dirt horses, grass horses, and synthetic horses, all the more easier to get Eclipse Awards for the dirt horses, I guess, now that they have so many fewer horses to defeat.....

Footlick

Just looking at some old PP……On one of the other Blogs we were talking about Arc possibilities in N/A and you mentioned Pink Pigeon.  Not sure how many of her races were on grass, but I have the line for the 1969 Santa Barbara Hdcp. at 1-1/4M on the turf at Santa Anita…..She defeated Desert Law by 6L with gamely 3rd another 3-1/2L back…..The race was run in an incredible 1:58.1 with the following fractions 45.1….1.09….1.33.2….1.58.1……She wasn’t consistent, but when she was on she was as tough as they come.

Footlick Ventura gets tagged by Gio Ponti in March but she was best, she propped, or something, at the 1/16 pole or else she holds on--she only got beat a nose...

Draynay

I think that Zenyatta could defeat Music Note on any surface you want.....poly, turf, glass, concrete, even dirt.....Anytime, anywhere......Music Note is a nice filly.....Zenyatta is a great mare.

RHOWARD

You state RA beat nothing in the Preakness. You don't think Big Drama is good? You must be nuts!

DRAYNAY

If Zenyatta were to lose I will be man enough to admit you are correct. Remember,no excuses!

Householder- Lure would have been HOY in Europe if he had the luxury of racing there.  They would have had no problem giving him that if they thought he was the best horse in Europe.  Ours has become a popularity, bribing and east/west rivalry.  How many bottles of wine will be sent this year?

Dray I (finally) get it! By "demonizing" the track surface you diminish the winners of the races over it--UNLESS your horse Music Note wins, then it's "she overcame the track..."...yeah, and if she loses, ya always can fall back on that darn track!

CARLOS IN CALI,

You sound a lot like my ole buddy SLEW em ALL from California, reminding me of "Jose Adan".  Look friend, I didn't say my early touts were 100% correct all the time.  I'm good ...no doubt about it, but not that good ...anyway I'm going to improve my average with Careless Jewel in the Distaff and I want you to come back here after the fact and say RANAGULZION told you so.  Also, in the case of Jose Adan I think I deserve a "mulligan" in view of Godolphin's ultra conservative way of racing their charges.  Looking at Vineyard Haven, Girolamo and Gayego come to the races belatedly with success may might suggest that Jose Adan's turn may yet come, in which case Ranagulzion will have the belated last laugh.  Stay tuned Carlos.

Moss " can win the Classic going away and still not get HOY "

True, Matthew W, but he'll have something far more valuable from a historical standpoint.

Even when RA gets Hoy, people will debate forever if the BEST horse REALLY won the honor.

That's worth far more than the fleeting glory that is HoY.

This little contest is a nice thing. On with th games ! remember , all, there is always an Arcangues out there

Matthew- I know.  I think she could have won too, but that's horse racing.  I was just trying to correlate horses with their common competition.  If you diminish Lethal Heat and AllicansayisWow, then you diminish Ferneley, then you diminish Ventura and then you diminish Gio.  It's about who is running competitively with who.  If you say it's all about how many starts a horse has, then Ventura must be one of the most underaccomplished horses running given the fact that she has only run four times this year.  And she only won two of those, losing to Gio and Informed decision on synthetic tracks.  You can't diminish a horse because they run on synthetic or turf instead of dirt or because they only run a certain amount of times.  

Laz- Pink Pigeon was one of my favorites.  She was fast and tough, but you're right, she was erratic at times.  Those were amazing fractions for a 10 furlong race.  She also held the American turf record for 9 furlongs for awhile.  She ran quite a few on the turf if I'm remembering right.

I would like to state for the record if Zenyatta hits the board I WILL BE SHOCKED.  She is the 4th best horse in the race and if Careless Jewel, Lethal Heat, and Music Note do not ALL beat her I will be shocked. Music Note could race Zenyatta on any surface any where and beat her.  On dirt it would not even be a race. I am going to love watching Music Note beat Z on her home court so there are NO EXCUSES from the Z fans. Mike... if Zenyatta wins I will have no excuses but I promise you the horse doesn't have a chance...none.  The race is between Careless Jewel and Music Note.  "Demonizing?" Me? Lol. Why would I demonize sand, poly fibers, and recycled rubber.  When I think of the greats like Citation, The Bid, Affirmed, and Seattle Slew all I can think about is "I wonder how they would have run on sand, poly fiber and recycled rubber." Not a day goes by I don't wonder how the great Secretariat could have really been had he made the transition from dirt to sand, poly fiber and recycled rubber instead of turf.

The track is the track ...

Dirt tracks like Big Sandy vary from the fast track they create at CD on Oaks and Derby Day.

Why get hung up on the track makeup?

As long as a horse does not have to take their track with them - then who cares?

Who was that beast of California mare that never could win outside California in the late 90's (99?)?   My mind is blanking on that horse.

I don't think Z is like her, but a trip to CD this autumn will do her a world of good.  Zenyatta at least went to OP and strut her stuff - I tend to think she could do it again.  

hey you guys forgat MUSIC NOTE ,the ballerina at saratoga was the best i see  this year,the beldame was just a prep over the distance ,last year she finish 3rd ,if zennyatta goes in the classic(i dont think so) she maybe the favorite,last year i pick a cold exacta zeny over cocoa beach ,this year i love zeny over music note .cj its only a 3yo you asking for too much,music its a 4yo ,in better shape than last year.

Matt W,

    So you would just happen to forget she's beaten Summer Bird? Yes it was a mile and an eight, but the last time I checked it was still a route race, it was still the only time they met, and who won, oh right, Rachel, in as you said a ROMP. Maybe a very short decision wouldn't have made a difference, but six lengths, I don't care, you can't forget. She has BEATEN the best three year old male in the country, she bested the best male horses on the east coast. You may want to say SB is a better horses since he last saw RA? Well I seem to remember that his beyer in the Haskel was 111, the Travers 109, and his last start a 111. Notice that he has double diget beyer at both nine and ten furlongs, giving me the indication that he is just as effective at nine with his new racing stratagy, that he is at ten. He ran his best race in the Haskell and got beat. Just because it is at nine furlongs does not make it invalid.

The Phantom...RA had no need to go to those races, RA had already beat the winner of those 3 races convincingly...TWICE.

PS I love SB, picked him back before the Arkansas as a really good horse, but she whupped him twice.

Footlick, how can you insult such a hard-knocking little race horse like Lethal Heat (16-6-3-5)?

Do you know how many graded races she has run, including against the boys, with only one or two weeks in between? and she always shows up!

Now she may run in the Distaff and the next day in the BC Turf Sprint...how many horses have you EVER heard of running back to back Grade 1 races at two different distances and two different surfaces?

She's so honest.

She is exactly the kind of racehorse I would give my eyeteeth to own.

At 3:

Won Hollywood Oaks (G2)

Santa Paula S. (G3)

Fleet Treat S.

Real Good Deal S.

3rd Del Mar Oaks (G1)

Railbird S. (G3)

At 4:

2nd Lady's Secret S. (G1)

Palomar H. (G2)

California Cup Classic H.

3rd Clement L. Hirsch S. (G1)

Del Mar Breeders' Cup Mile H. (G2)

Monrovia H. (G3)

PS ONE week in between the CCC aand CLH S.

1 1/4 turf at Santa Anita is on downhill start--thus, the faster times...if they DON'T break 2:00 it's a "slow" time...

I've said before that Bayakoa would have eaten Azeri for lunch. This data just makes me more certain.

What AW surfaces reward is Stamina, not turf ability. Training at Big Sandy doesn't promote stamina unless you go around it a couple of times a day. Euro training and tracks put more stamina into their horses.

Oh, at the Santa Anita 10f on grass starts on the outside-the-oval turf course so the times tend to be fast; the first 3/8 is downhill. 12f races have 5/8 on the downhill section. Just in case you didn't know.

da3hoss- my comment was aimed at the people who CALL the horses that Zenyatta runs against nothing more than optional claimers or allowance horses.  When I said that they were second and third to Fernley, and that they were the "optional claimers/allowance horses" that Zenyatta was running against, and Fernely was second to Ventura. I was commenting on the difference between their performances and what some people have called them on these blogs.  I thought it was clear in my post and subsequent posts.  If not, then I apologize.  But that is why I also mentioned Unbridled Belle.  As I said, Lethal Heat and AllicansayisWow have done more this year.  Zenyatta's competition has been ridiculed  all the time on these blogs- I'm trying to show that they are better than these people suppose.  I know to ignore Beyers if the race is on turf or synthetic and there is a slow pace.  I can use other things to judge how good a horse is on those surfaces.

I'm waiting for the pre-entries before I throw myself into this "chat"? "discussion"?

"argument"? "brawl"?

In the meantime, can anyone tell me WHERE the races will be televised in Canada?  I'm having trouble trying to find out and I need to know so I can program my Saturday (no way I can get to see things on Friday -- unless someone can also tell me how I can get it on-line, free, in Toronto)

help!

LDP- I give her all the credit in the world for the Haskell, but speed and front runners are everything at Monmouth.  It's a great track for her.  I don't think Matthew wanted to take anything away from her performance.  As far as SB's Beyers, I think his races at 10 furlongs are more impressive.  His Haskell Beyer was that high because of the pace.  Pace is everything in Beyers.  I think his Jockey Club was his most impressive race.  You have to remember that 10 furlongs used to be the championship distance in this country.  Very few horses ever won a championship without running 10 furlongs.  Lady's Secret ran 10 furlongs.  Personal Ensign ran 10 furlongs.  Most champion fillies ran in either the CCA or the Alabama.  Mom's Command wasn't supposed to be able to go 10 furlongs or 12 furlongs but she did.  But, RA's connections chose not to, and it seems to have worked for them.  And before you say it, I know Zenyatta hasn't either.  But, if you give one horse a bye on running 10 furlongs you can't penalize another.  Either everybody gets a bye or nobody gets one.  What is fair for one must be fair for all.

Ann- I agree about the conditioning benefits, but I also believe that in general turf ability will help.  You will always have exceptions, but I think in general it must be there.  About Santa Anita's 10 furlongs on the turf, Christophe Clement said he was running Rutherienne because it's an "easy" 10 furlongs.  

LDP

If you're going to talk about Summer Bird, at least get his Beyers right:

• Belmont:  100

• Haskell:  106

• Travers:  110

• Jockey Club:  111

The only time his Beyers regressed were from the Ark. Derby (99) to the Kentucky Derby (86)…..In every other race, from his first in March to the JCGC, his Beyers have increased except for that one time…..It would be nice if you would admit that he is not the same horse now that he was in the Haskell….I, like you, enjoyed Rachel and I marvelled at her accomplishments.  However, to say that she could beat the best male 3 y-o in the country at distances starting at 1-1/8M and up NOW is a little far-fetched, the same as saying she could beat the best mare in the country at any route distance…..She had her day, made her mark, and is currently resting away from the competition IN THE BARN while the others continue to entertain us fans and strive to achieve even greater success….Enough said.

Ann- I loved Bayakoa!!

MZ

Go to the Woodbine site.....You might have to be a member and I am not sure whether you have to have a betting account or if you can join for free.....The site carries all the major tracks in the US and Canada and has video on your computer.....they also have replays, and it's all for free....Barring that the BC might be on TSN (check their web site)....I know the CBC use to televise the BC but I don't think they do anymore.....It will also be on HBI TV on cable.  LOL

Draynay,

How can you say such negative things about Zenyatta? She is incredible and unbeaten.  She will long be remembered and in the Hall of Fame.  

Rhoward, I don't understand your constant bashing of RA.  According to you, she has only run against cheap claimers, among them being Summer Bird, MTB, POTN, Big Drama and Munnings.  All cheap claimers.

Nobody.

Zenyatta gets the same disrespect too.  Both Z and RA are unbeaten this year, yet they had to search far and wide to make sure they ran against the worst horses in history.  Therefore, neither is any good.  Ludicrous arguments all.

I'm sure every horse Secretariat, Citation and Seattle Slew ran against was just as good as they were.  Come on!  Grade 1's are not run by cheap claimers.  Give these horses some credit they have earned it.  Just because you don't like one or the other that doesn't mean what they have accomplished is not incredible just because you don't like them.  Why not admit that both are special and be thankful you got to witness history on both coasts.

MZ

I just checked the TSN schedule out of Toronto for the Breeders Cup...

Nov 6 .....3:00 PM EST

Nov 7 .....Multiple times starting at 1:00 PM EST (they might be showing selected races because they also have CFL football scheduled for that afternoon....Check their web site.  LOL

thx Lazmannick.  I saw that too and it got me all riled up again: they're breaking the greatest day of horseracing* for a CFL game!!!!!

*except for Rachel Alexandra.  And Sea the Stars.  And about a million others.  Don't get me started!

p.s.  Can you program my cell phone?

Footlick...good point.  You Tube Lady's Secret's 1986 Santa Anita Distaff.  1 1/4 with some pretty speedy fractions set by the Iron Lady, all 900 lbs of her.  

Runnergar..."Arcangues" What about the 1 millon bet on Curlin to win?  Tiago passed him in the stretch!  

The Santa Anita down hill has some tense moments as the horses have to cross over the maintrack and then back on to the turf.  The Turf sprints will on the same down hill.  

Oahunick,

I believe the horse you are thinking of is Manistique, also trained by John Shirreffs.

If you look at Zenyatta's PPs as a handicapper you would probably come to the conclusion that she won't stand up against others, based on times, beyers, etc. However, what we don't know about her is what will she do, how can she finish if she starts her run earlier. I don't see her winning against the boys in the Classic without starting her run quite a bit earlier. I hope she does run against them so we can see what she really is capable of doing but I fear that in the end her connections will opt out for the safer route, the filly and mare race to keep her undefeated record intact.

KOTASHAAN-1993-BUT HE WAS ORIGINALLY EURO..AND--JOHN HENRY WAS IN '84-LAST TIME--BEFORE J.H. YOU HAVE TO GO BACK TO FT. MARCY--1970.

 TOO BAD THE ARC WINNERS RARELY COME OVER.  I.E. DALAKHANI-SEA THE STARS-ZARKAVA-& OF COURSE--PEINTRE CELEBRE!!~ OH,GRANTED THEY COME OVER THE NEXT YEAR-SOME DO--AFTER THEY RAN AGAIN-FINISHED 2ND--BUT Rarely right after they win the ARC!~

 Should be an interesting turf race,anyway--interested in seeing what MIDSHIPMAN DOES--OR QUALITY ROAD--ON A TRACK THAT'S NOT SLOP..AND MIDSHIPMAN-AS HE PROVED LAST YEAR LOVES SANTA ANITA'S TRACK.

Monica you are 100% right and I should be more positive but I have reached my breaking point.  Jeff Siegel has Zenyatta at the top of his list if she runs against the boys?  Are you kidding me?  Does no one watch these races?  Are people serious?  Zenyatta beat a trapped Lethal Heat by 1 length do you have ANY idea what Summer Bird and Quality Road would do to Lethal Heat ???  The clock doesn't lie Zenyatta is a FULL second or more slower than the boys.  This Classic talk is complete nonsense and so is her record.  She did NOTHING this year that she didn't do last year except this year she did it SLOWER.  Do you really think she can give 10 lengths to Careless Jewel and Music Note ? By the way a good friend of mine saw the workout put in by Quality Road and he said, "Good luck passing this horse in deep stretch!" He has picked the last 5 Classic winners in a row so I am glad he is picking my choice for the win.

I think the Turf course at Santa Anita is a little too firm for the Euro's.  This is why a lot cross over to the synthetic and roll the dice...

Didn't Ginger Punch and Hysterical Lady run 1-2 in the Monmoth BC?  Didn't Music Note finish behind Zenyatta in last year's BC?  Didn't stable mate and grade 1 winner Life is Sweet run a game 3rd to the older boys in the Hollywood Gold Cup?  Zenyatta has beaten these..and they are no allowance horses.  If RA would have chose to run on the synthetics you could have added her to the list as well.  The close calls she has had this year are due to mis-timed rides not a declining horse. Take a look at her Lady's Secret.  Smith could have fallen asleep on her and she would have still found the front at the 1/8th pole with her ears pointed forward and head into her buisiness which is winning. Now it becomes a "who's better?"  Tyson or Alli?

Householder,

I question those fractions that Lady's Secret ran in the Distaff in 86'. Just visually watching her come down the stretch, it's hard to imagine that the 1 mile time was 1:34, then finishing up in 2:01 n change. last quarter in 27 secs? I don't know, maybe it was that slow. Just watching her down the stretch, it didn't look like a 27 final quarter.

LAZMANNICK

Hello!

I see you are always finding ways to be amusing. lol Keep up the great work!

Dray doesn't like Zen because he doesn't like California horses. They could sprout wings and fly away and he still would find a reason to dislike them. I can understand not liking the surface. I am not fond of it either but that's what Zen runs on and she is amazing. IMO a turf horse can move easier to dirt than a dirt horse can move to turf. Synthetic is more like turf than dirt. Zen would probably do well on dirt. I hope we get to see it.

Like her or not, RA becomes the focus of almost every blog regardless what the blog is about. RA is a star.

Look, I know there are a lot of fans of Zenyatta here and believe it or not the last thing I want to do is rain on a parade.  You are correct Karen2 I am upset with California racing on sand, poly fibers and recycled rubber because they do it for NO GOOD REASON. I have nothing against the horse and will say no more I have said enough. I take issue with all the praise heaped upon a horse that has never won a race at Belmont, Saratoga, or Churchill its unheard of in our sport.  I would talk about MTB but I have nothing nice to say about that at all so I will pass on that as well.  I would like to make a comment about Summer Bird vs. Quality Road.  Should Quality Road win the Breeders Cup as I expect him to I hope the people in charge do the right thing and make him 3 year old colt of the year.  Coming back from injury to win the biggest race of the year would be a huge story and would be a major feather in the cap of Mr. Pletcher.  Anyone willing to guess the odds on a Music Note/Quality Road Cup Double?

Yes Householder we all saw Zenyatta beat a 3 year old Music Note on HER home court last year.  Let me know how she does trying to beat a rested FOUR year old Music Note THIS YEAR.  I will be right here for you to give me all the details after the race.

Euro horses LOVE Santa Anita's turf! In last two Cups they pretty much dominated out there...Also I'm NOT saying Rachel ain't great--I thought I explained it pretty straightforward--I believe if there is a DOMINANT horse at 1 1/4, the HOY goes to him/her---1 1/4 is the ultimate distance for the thoroughbred breed on dirt---1 1/2 on turf, when there is no dominant horse at 1 1/4, you can give it to the most spectacular horse--I mean, Summer Bird has been beaten by many horses, but if he wins the Classic that's three of the top five 1 1/4 races in the US--and he's dancing the Fall Dances, and Fall has always been the championship proving ground--I love Rachel Alexandra but she was mismanaged and had to shut it down for the last four months and never even raced in the Fall one time! If Summer Bird gets the $$ in the Classic, it's my humble opinion he's HOY, and it's hands down! What, no rematch? He tried that awesome filly on her track, but they didn't return the favor, why punish Summer Bird?

Laz,

    I'm going off of pure memory of what I've heard, and I thought that his Travers beyer was 109, and the Haskell a 111, which, would make more sence to me. Rachel beat him by six, does ten beyer points normally equate to six lengths? If you want to give me the site you go the numbers from be my guest, I would, really, I'm being dead serious, want to see them. I thought his Belmont was a 105, Haskell a 111 or 109, I wasn't sure, The travers a 109 and the Gold Cup a 111. I would love the site, I am serious.

Footlick,

    Now I'll do the research on this myself too, but how many of those fillies beat males at 10 furlongs, while at the age of three? I know a few who did, but I don't think Mom's Command or Lady's Secret ever did. If RA ran against fillies in the CCAO, which I believe is 10 furlongs, my head is killing me right now so I'm probably wrong, but do you think she'd win, heck yes. I'm sitting here wracking my brain for three year old dirt fillies who have beaten 3yr olds males at 10 furlongs, which I can think of only a few, but that same critira except beating older males, what 3yo filly has done that. Notice I'm talking about those running on dirt for 10 furlongs. The only one I think that might have done it is Busher, I'm not sure. Also I wasn't even going to start on Zen, that would be Dray your thinking of. My point was you can't dismiss her win over him, since it was their only meeting. Yes it wasn't his best distance, but to be honest his new found running style which has turned out to be better than the closing one he used to have was used in that race, in fact he was right even with RA until the far turn. He was on the pace, using his now best running style, on his favorite surface mud. Those things just about evened out the fact that nine furlongs is not his optimal distance. A person can't just forget that she beat him, just so he can get HOTY.

dray

at least Z is showing up for the BC were the heck is RA in hiding

dray when you can pick a winner maybe people here will listen to you, havent seen a winner from your mouth yet and QC will be lucky to hit the money, learn the game son

I think the only way Zenyatta wins the Classic is to drop way back and just come late with her run--there will be pace--She's suspect at the distance, to say the least, so don't change a thing--I DON'T worry about her #'s! They have been walking out here at two turns, and she's been finishing like she always has--fast as heck! I think they're gonna try'em, I really do! Speed figs/Beyers--toss'em! They don't apply out here like they do on dirt, or even like at Hollywood, which plays like dirt...If she goes in Classic, I like her stablemate Life Is Sweet to mow 'em all down on Fri...Dray will try to use the track as an excuse, but it's the NY horses that are weak---who's their best older horse? Bullsbay was an also ran at Holly and that track plays like dirt!~I DO like Music Note, I always have--but she will be stepping way up in class out here!

DRAY,

Music Note is due a lot of respect in the Distaff but I believe that the freakish Careless Jewel is going to show her a clean pair of heels all the way around that Santa Anita track.

I would agree that the BCC is going to be a championship decider between Quality Road and Summer Bird.  If QR takes to the surface it will be "money for jam" and that track record will be in trouble.  Excuses in relation to the pro-ride surface should not be admissible in this particular 3YO colts battle.  If both QR and SB are upstaged by Mine That Bird then he could also be considered because of his Triple Crown performances.  However his losses in the West Virginia Derby and Goodwood might harm his bid.  

Draynay, I laughed my head off over the "sand, poly fiber and recycled rubber" comments. You are dead right about that. I don't like the stuff either.

I still think Zenyatta takes the distaff. Although you are right that she just gets by the competition, I don't think they ever really push her. Yes, Music Note is a better horse this year than last, but I still think Careless Jewel is Zenyatta's biggest competition. I think Zenyatta could run on anything, but we will never know for sure unfortunately.

I hope you are right about Quality Road. I would LOVE to see Quality Road win the classic because I think he is a wonderful horse. This was not an easy year for him. I would also love to see MTB bounce back. It's not impossible  if shoes really were the problem with his last race. We'll find out.

Interesting note. My schnauzer, Ralph, had some joint problems because he is a 12 year old boy. My vet said he used to give his canine patients some injectable drug they used to give HORSES for their joints. Like an idiot, I forgot to ask what it was. He gave Ralph pills (Rimidyl) instead.

You can also go to calracing.com for the live races. They will be covering all of the Breeder's cup races. You need to register but its free.

Mike Relva

I always try to inject some humour, but as funny as anyone on here tries to be at times, we would all have to go a long way to beat Draynay's 1:20 PM post.....Now that's funny.....Have a good day my friend and enjoy the next couple of weeks.  It should be a hoot.  LOL

Mike Relva:

I thought that Draynay's 1:20 post was funny.....then I read his 8:54 and 8:58 posts.....The guy should do stand up.....He's hysterical.  LOL

www.hyalogicanimalhealth.com

Here it is Paula. My Daisy is 14 years old and I give her drops every day and it really does help.  Roxy is 3 and keeping Daisy young.  Let me know how Ralph responds!

ilwacocapper I've been picking winners all my life.  Haven't you seen a picture of my wife ?  Best winner I EVER picked.

LDP

I have a monthly subscription to the DRF Past Performances and they give you the lifetime PP of all horses running in each race.

Listed below is Summer Bird’s record including the date, track, race-type, where he finished and his Beyer:

• Mar 1 – OP – Mdn – 4th – 65

• Mar 19 – OP - Mdn – 1st – 78

• Apr 1 – OP – Ark Dby – 3rd – 99

• May 2 – CD – Kty Dby – 6th – 86

• Jun 6 – Bel – Belmont – 1st – 100

• Aug 2 – Mth – Haskell – 2nd – 106

• Aug 29 – Sar – Travers – 1st – 110

• Oct 3 – Bel – JCGCup – 1st – 111

You will note that Summer Bird’s only Beyer regression was from the Arkansas Derby to the Kentucky Derby.

I know that Rachel defeated Summer Bird by 6-L in the Haskell.  This was a herculean performance on her part and she should be applauded for it…..To say that she would defeat him now though would be stretching it and I do not believe she could do it…..She faced him in the Haskell at the optimum time:  on a speed oriented track where SB was forced to keep much too close to the pace and where the horse that should have given her more of a fight (Munnings) was distance challenged forcing him to race like he did……Summer Bird has improved dramatically even since then……You will note that in his third race, the Arkansas Derby, the winner was Papa Clem and Summer Bird just, coming off a maiden win, was 26-1…..In the Haskell Papa Clem, after making a bit of a move, was a none threatening 4th.  Today he wouldn’t be a challenge to Summer Bird, particularly at longer route distances.....This is a testimony to Summer Bird’s vast improvement (he didn’t race at two and had only been racing for five months when he entered the Haskell)…..That’s why I think he would now be the superior horse, which should not be taken as a slight to Rachel…..Have a good day at school tomorrow.  LOL

I do think that QR could be the sleeper of the Classic and it wouldnt surprise me at all to see him take it. He was beaten rather decisively by SB in the Travers but it was much closer in the Jockey Gold Cup, which was only his 2nd route race after the long layoff.

I still reiterate that if Zen runs in the Classic that she will have to stay closer to pull off a victory. She is very hard to figure in that race..could possibly win if not way off the pace but could also finish off the board. She has a tremendous stride when extended and there is no doubt in my mind that she will close faster on the front runners than any horse they have faced yet.

ok this is a little off topic  but i just saw a video on youtube of a SA filly called Bambera who won 5 of 6 triple crown races this year- (male & female) and came 2nd in the other Read that she is supposed to be coming up to NA next year to face RA  You gotta check her out  i just wish i could speak spanish

This is why you "deep-close" with Zenyatta---because that is her style, and as you go further, and I'm talking 1 1/2 furlongs vs the world's best males, the deeper you close the less stamina you need--you're only running 3/8 of a mile--and Big Z has the best last 3/8, no doubt, there is no horse, and I do mean none racing/and few I've ever seen who can kick like that--I have been a stout critic of racing fillies v males---except for Cascapedia and Winning Colors, I have been against running fillies v males--from Ruffian, Lady's Secret, Bayakoa--truly the best fillies but nowhere near the best males--they were smaller/weaker...I even think Rachel Alexander should stay v fillies, I love that horse, and she has nothing to prove to me, I KNOW what we have in her--a three year old who can be compared with the greatest who ever raced--but Zenyatta is one of those who you could see beating males cuz she's bigger, and (probably) stronger, than the males--bring it on, and thank Mr Shirreffs for having her ready all her races and now it's for the classic....

Sprint Double Ventura/Gayego and if Zensational draws inside Gayego's a single!

LDP- Obviously, Winning Colors and Genuine Risk won the Derby, so they did beat 3yr old colts at 10 furlongs.  Mom's Command didn't run against colts, but had an amazing record for a sprinter, which is what she naturally was.  She had to run in the 12 furlong CCA Oaks, this was before they shortened it up to 10 furlongs.  The Filly races ranged from 8 furlongs to 12 furlongs, so they had to show speed and stamina.  This is no slam to RA, it's just the facts that existed then.  Then they would run in the Alabama, which is still 10 furlongs.  Genuine Risk ran the most against males, winning the Derby, second in the Preakness and Belmont, and a third in the Wood.  Serena's Song won the Jim Beam and the Haskell.  But none of those were at 10 furlongs.  Althea beat males twice at 2 and demolished them in the Arkansas Derby at 3 before being asked to run too far in the Derby.  And she was never the same horse after the Derby, otherwise you know Mr Lucas would have been running her more against males.  But you are right that RA is the only American 3yr old filly in recent times to beat older males.  But some of the other ran and won against older fillies/mares.  Is RA better than all of these examples which are the only ones I can think of at the moment?  Is her Woodward win enough to top all of these wonderful fillies?  It will just be a matter of opinion in the end.  I'll let her take her place in history because she is a wonderful horse.  And I'll keep quiet about who I think would be able to beat her.  She deserves her spotlight.

Phantom,

I have cut and pasted your comment here:

"Ruffian and da3horse, you both are funny, she ran against the best-ha ha ducked the travers, jockey and belmont can't go beyond 9 furlongs, the owner knows it and didn't want to face defeat case closed..."

So I will repeat the first sentence of my previous post. Have you forgotten that she won the Preakness at 1 3/16M? This is farther than 9F. My question to you is, how can you say case closed...that the owner knows she cannot win beyond 9F?

There is no disputing the fact that she won beyond 9F. No matter how much you want this to be untrue....it is true.

I'm unsure why you dislike Jess Jackson so much. Folks like him are badly needed in this sport. If you want to be upset, you should be upset with the Breeder's Cup. They made the terrible and unfair mistake of scheduling the Cup two years in a row at the same venue (unfair in and of itself) and on a surface that everyone agrees plays like turf.

I realize it is your opinion that the Breeder's Cup Classic is the most important race in determining HOY. Bearing that in mind, horses that compete in traditional GI dirt races all year long should not be forced to cap off a long season on a surface that plays like turf. Dirt should be dirt, and turf should be turf. It's really like every single Breeder's Cup race is being run on turf, and I don't see how that begets genuine results, especially when trying to determine something as important as HOY.

After Rail Trip wins the Hol Gold Cup next year, he'll go East for a summit meeting with Rachel Alexandra in the Woodward--we wish! Anyway I'm bettin' Rail Trip is HOY next year/wins Holly Gold, goes East/has big run...wins Classic.....

Gun Bow I'm hopin' you're in jail, otherwise ya got the flu, it's a week and a couple days till the cup where areya and your statistics??!!

Draynay, Draynay, Draynay!

Zenyatta is a superhorse.  She has dominated in every race but one and is still undefeated.  She just walks out there, gets in the gate, lopes along at the rear and then just turns it on at the far turn and passes them all with such ease that she seems to be yawning as she sweeps by the rest. I'm not saying it isn't possible for her to be beaten but you just can't belittle what she has achieved in her 14 races!  She is a great positive for this sport and has legions of fans.  We all love our sports heros and she is definitely one of them as is Rachel.

I see where Zenyatta has been officially entered in both the Classic and the Lady's Classic with the Classic her preference.....Now Draynay can say that she is racing in the Classic to avoid Music Note.

Question,

     Anyone put any stock in the fact that Zenyatta's second preference is the Ladies' Classic?  With the first being the Classic?, Curious....  

Draynay..Paramutual Betting...I'm going to enjoy your money.  I'm in row V right where Zenyatta will be passing Music Note.  I'll look for you.  Actually I do hope Music Note and others show up.  I'm getting tired of the "Mike Tyson" 30 second fights.  If the media plays this right they may get 40,000 local fans to skip work on a Friday.

The time to test the 1 1/4 distance would have been the Pacific Classic where Zenyatta would have been the favorite.  

FYI,

   Just a head's up, Watch Race 5 at Keeneland on Saturday, Oct. 31, The winner of the 2010 Kentucky Derby will be running, I will be there in person to witness his first race, Can't wait...

Laz,

    Very funny, considering I can't stand some of my teachers. On a serious note, I am not slighting SB, I love the colt to death, mainly because his career so far reminds me so much of my number one favorite horse Curlin. In saying that I still, seriously think, RA is the superior horse. Yes SB was kept closer to the pace, but hasn't he done the same in his last two and recieve some of his best speed figures and run his best races using that style. Also you say the track was speed favoring, and SB was right up there near the lead showing speed. He also was running in mud, which he has proven to absolutely love. RA was on the outside, running three wide the entire race, and came home winning with ease. Had she been fully extended, I would say that now SB would be superior, but she wasn't. SB is a wonderful horse and I can't wait for next year to watch him, QR, RA, CJ, RT and possibly even the Moose and IWR racing on the same track. If it happens. By that I mean if JJ would try RA on turf, which I think with her turn of foot and the easier paces up front, that she would excel at. Either way next year should be fantastic.

LDP

In the Haskell SB completely changed his running style and was up too close to a suicidal pace....3/4's 1.09.4 and the mile in 1.34.1.....This was all new to him, and keep in mind he was cutting back in distance by 3/8ths of a mile.....I don't think Rachel could have been beaten that day anyway, but she wouldn't have beaten him in either the Travers or the JCGC.....Remember she was all out to hold off Macho Again by a nose and SB beat Macho by a pole and on Macho's so-called preferred surface.....Anyway, as the saying goes, if, if, and, and buts were candies and nuts we would all have a very merry Christmas

ilwacocapper I've been picking winners all my life.  Haven't you seen a picture of my wife ?  Best winner I EVER picked.

Draynay 27 Oct 2009 10:50 PM

And don't you EVER forget it big boy!!