Zenyatta was only horse to win abreeders cup race from Post one-post position 2two did not win-i dont know if that meane anything-1-28

Even though i don't think QR is going to win, i would definetly take QR to finish ahead (well ahead) of the fluke.  MTB's breeders cup we similar to his last, especially given the quality of this field.

I don't know what Juddmonte's Breeder's Cup wins are but it would appear that Godolphin's are anything but awe inspiring.  Pletcher...hasn't he had a tough Belmont meet?  

LOL Indeed.

Interesting, because your lines reveal a lot about your opinion on this year's races. For example you hold Garrett Gomez in high regard to win a few.

I'll take the "over" on Baffert and "under" on Pletcher. I would tend to go "under" on the Euros only because the half point means if they win even 4 races, under wins.

Hey...you've remembered to put in the Arcangues Prize! (Biggest Longshot Winner)

Only question: how late can we get our opinions to you: opening line odds or what?  (I gotta wait to see how wome of my longshots are doing before I can commit)

Bejarano over Gomez! He brings it every time

Quality Road will finnish ahead of MTB, he didnt handle the track last year and he didnt like it again in the Goodwood. Keep him on dirt & in the rain.

Goldikova wins by daylight Ventura by a nose.

And Einstein finnishes ahead of Colonel John.

Einstein over Col John.  That's easy.  Over on Baffert and I'll give you the 1 1/2.  Lookin at Lucky and Zensational.

The forcast is for 80 with plenty of sunshine in Arcadia.  Something will hit above 22-1.

How about a "What are they thinking" line?  Chocolate Candy in the dirt mile?

i think CJ is the best bet for the classic, I like his timing.second choice is richards kid.

What happens when both Sadler and McPeek get shut out?

The Yellow Ribbon winner over the Pretty Polly winner in the Filly/Mare Turf.

This is a really good idea..Now if we could get the rest of the sport in line with this..I'll take PP #8. I'll take QR and Einstein, and I will also take over on Bob and under on Todd. I will take under on repeat winners. Biggest longshot over. Still thinking on the rest.

Jason:

Biggest Lonshot Winner, I will go

with over.

ignorant european here. I had never heard of the phrase prop bet. we call em specials here. learn something new every day. think the winnning distance at over 5.5 lengths is a good bet. there's always at least one easy winner in there, and some of the lesser races are probably not as competitive as we think. euros at 4.5 races is about right. they probably have 3 in the bag (marathon, mile, turf) so they would need 2 more.

a possible spread bet would be at what stage of the race the aussie santa anita commentator will say "and look at zenyatta go, is this believable?" before she gets swamped in the final furlong.  

Jason,

 I know you are busy but you should take a few minutes and read the article in the NY Times about Jeff Mullins. What an arrogant, condescending jerk. They need to take cheating  trainers like him and ban them from the sport FOREVER! I will watch and enjoy the BC but knowing that trainers like Mullins and Biancone are allowed to run their horses on the greatest day of racing is pathetic.

Answers (guesses) to the head to heads, in order: Gomez, Godolphin, McPeek, Godolphin, Goldiva, Einstein, Quality Road.

everyine needs to keep there eye on Gallent Gent in the juvinile race and Einstein in the classi.One Euro not to over look is Mid day

What about the prop of Zenyatta running in the classic.

The odds are 1/9 against

If I were to do this, my picks would be:

Head to Head

1. Garrett Gomez.

2. Godolphin.

3. Tough, but I'll go for McPeek.

4. Godolphin.

5. Ventura.

6a. Colonel John.

6b. Quality Road.

Over/under

1. Under.

2. Under.

3. Under.

4. Under, though this one is tough.

5. Over.

6. Over.

7. Under.

8. Under.

9. Under.

10. I love this one. Over.

11. Over.

12. Under.

13. Under.

14. Over.

Heck, Jason, when I saw you liked three guys in Classic, I thought I'd offer ya any ONE of them and I'll take Big Z, they have to finish top three to win...at least I can say I bet on Zen, as I never have--I hate to bite on such a low price, on a horse that just walks outta there--but her style of deep closing probably insures me of 3rd---think you can find the one, or two guys who'll get her? I mean I wouldn't take that bet, cuz she's about as likely as any to finish top three--she's fired every time--I DON'T think males will be her downfall--I think the distance is her biggest concern...  

the King and his cheap talk!

Mine That Bird! Over Quality Road....Colonel John over Einstein...

How many white shadow rolls! haHa!

Wow Matt, like your nerve! Excellent. Hope the little guy does well!

I really think the jockey prop at the BC will draw a ton of bets. All the non handicappers, fans of jockeys will have a great time with that.

I'd like to know what the handle ends up on that bet. Might be a possible for all future BC's? Hey then maybe a trainer bet for the betting public.

Innovative and inventive and just all around fun.

Baffert has been doing pretty well... Have to really think about this.

One thing that's a bummer are some of the short fields. Not the problem at Keeneland nor CD Sunday but oh well, maybe back on track next year.

On a more somber note, please offer up your prayers for Jockey Julia Brimo who was critically injured today in the 1st at Keeneland.

How about Summer Bird v. Gio Ponti (best 3 yr old season in a while v. best American turf season in a while)?

I'll take the under on the number of favorite winners.

Ah, I forgot the post position bet. I think post 1 will have the most winners.

Matthew W

You mentioned that you thought that

distance was her biggest concern.

IMO I do not feel 10f would be a problem for her to get.

I think Citation deserves a free t-shirt no matter what, based on his/her attention to detail.

I will wager the farm on Juddmonte. I think they have an excellent chance with Ventura & Midday. That might be enough to beat Godolphin. They also have a good chance with Zacinto & Spanish Moon. Twice Over, Father Time, Visit & Proviso should also be competitive. Can I get odds since everyone else likes Godolphin?

If Zenyatta runs in the Classic -

Who will be ahead after the opening 1/2 mile - Zenyatta or Mine That Bird?

wow, what a wonderful idea, mr. jason.. this is more fun for people who are fans, not just of horses, but also of horse trainers, and jockeys.

i'd bet on Col.John over Einstein, Ventura over Goldi, and QR over MTB. MTB is a hard-knocking horse, but QR is huge.. its gonna be close though.

my money's on Garrett, and Godolphin (sorry, Todd)..

but my big bucks goes to Rip OVER ZENYATTA in the Classic.  Rip rules.  Zen is a champion, but is untested among males nor does she have the Beyers for this.  If she has 116s like RA, Zen may have a chance.  But Zen's Beyers are kinda on the low end, and this is not good.  Nice try, though.. Better now or Never.  LOL

Get the ambulance ready, though.  If Zen really goes for the Classic, she'll need it. LOL

!!!..."EXPOSE IT & THEY WILL SHOW UP"!!!...

Quality Road for the win and Music Note for the win.  Look for Gomez to win 5 races.

    Off topic, If anybody gets a chance, Watch race five today at Keeneland(3:05), Lentenor's debut, When you see him, You would never believe this was his first race, Trust me on this one...

I am not feeling it with Zen in the classic.  I am worried about this field she is facing. Zen will have to dig deep and find another level to handle these boys. If she is on, we may get to witness the true depth of Zenyatta. I understand not running her with the "girls". The filly's just can't beat her.

I love so many horses in this race. I hate to say it again, but it all comes down to the surface. Who will be able to find their footing on it and who won't. I love QR, but imo this isn't going to be his race. He will have his hands full with SB. I'm hoping for a good showing by the gutsy gelding who does have a name by the way...Mine That Bird....not fluke.  I think it will be a close race..not a shut out. They will be running hard at the wire and it could be a photo finish.

Under on the 5 1/2 length biggest winner--they don't seem to spread out like on dirt--more like grass...where the races are usually closer but best horse usually wins...

Will Quality Road finish ahead of Mine That Bird? The only horse getting a nose in front of the Bird with be Zenyatta, who will retire undefeated and beat all the world's best horses in the Classic.  But Mine That Bird will be right there with Zenyatta if there is a good pace. They both hang back, then catapult forward in a tight finish. At least that's how I imagine it.

Thank you Ted from LA. I'm a girl, by the way. Though I'm a little bit confused as to what you are referring to by attention to detail. Draynay, I agree that Music Note  has a great chance to win, and since she is one of my favorite horses, all the better.

Citation, I believe Careless Jewel and Music Note are the best two horses in the race regardless if Zenyatta shows up.  They both will run a sub 148 and Zenyatta has not been able to do that all year.  In her current form I don't believe Music Note is beatable.  Which leaves Zentatta with the option of finishing 3rd in the Distaff or 6th in the Classic.  She is in a no win situation

Jason,

Boy am I jealous! Do you need anybody to carry your luggage, mix you an adult beverage, drive you from the hotel to the track? I think I might be able to get away for a week.

Karen2 I am with you. I am worried about Zenyatta in this race too. This is also going to be a bigger field than she is used to running in isn't it?? Lot's of concerns but she could blow their doors off too. We shall see in one week.

Tim, I saw that about Julia Brimo. Very bad. I will keep her in my prayers. This is another part of horse racing I just hate. Breakdowns are the other.

If I ever saw a lock the over on the Euro win total is it.

I used to like Music Note but it looks like she got the kiss of death above.

I like the over on the lengths at 5.5.

Singling: Zensational-Goldikova-Conduit in the pick-6 (6-6-6 in the other three)

PAULA HIGGINS & KAREN2,

Don't worry too much about Zenyatta in the BCC.  She is a very genuine camaigner that will give it her best shot as she always does.  After all, it is about time her connections show some courage with her.

Personally, I don't believe that she can outrun the leading lights in this race but it is not a far fetched proposition since we have yet to see her truly tested.  If she can win this race I would have to rank her up there with champion "male-beating" fillies like the great Euros: Dahlia, Allez France, All Along, Zarkava, Urban Sea (dam of Sea The Stars) and our current HOTY-in-waiting "big bad" Rachel Alexandra.  To upstage Rachel, a BC-winning Zenyatta would probably need to show up again with a win in the Clark, which is more improbable than just winning the BCC.

It is going to take a very special horse to take down Quality Road in the BCC.  Perhaps Rip Van Winkle is coming to pay a handsome tribute to his nemisis Sea The Stars and is therefore capable of taking the fight to QR.  Other top class contenders Gio Ponte, Summer Bird, Einstein and Girolamo (Godolphins secret weapon) are going to make this race worth going miles to see.  I think that the track record will go in this race especially if Godolphin also sends out Regal Ransom.        

Gosh, does Rip Van Winkle look good, or what!! Here are his five races this year: 4th, 2 1/2 behind Sea The Stars, 9-2 in 15 horse field, so he's hammered! ...4th, beaten 2 by Sea The stars in Epsom Derby (neck from 2nd) at 6-1....2nd by 1 to Sea The Stars at 5-1.....and then two easy Gr l wins vs older---this guy's some real nice horse--probably as good as Summer Bird...no excuses if they beat Zenyatta--but no excuses if they don't....

Rangulation:

Do you think that Rachel could win the BCC ths year (proviing of course that she could adapt to the surface) and if she did do you not think that it would be lights out better than her other races against males?

My answer would be YES, YES, YES!!!

Special horse to beat Quality road??...It doesn't take an Einstein to figure out who likes 1 1/4 and Pro Ride---his name IS Einsiein--NOT Quality Road! Is Summer Bird SOME horse? He was the guy hand ridden alongside Quality, who was being punished by Johnny V the whole stretch! No, the race is NOT 1 1/8, Precisionist--ER, Quality Road guy!

DRAYNAY

Zenyatta would beat BOTH Music Note and CJ,. Without Zen in the race I say CJ will win.

A filly that wins a classic in US is FAR greater than a filly winning at 1 1/2 over grass (over there)---MUCH harder to do what Rachel Alexander has done--I saw Dahlia almost every day for three months  and she was nowhere near Rachel OR Zenyatta--she won some big races at 1 1/2--and lost MANY more--at a distance that makes her EQUAL to a male horse--stamina is a trait of the breed--male and female BOTH have it in equality--males are dominant by strength, but that has nothing to do with stamina-nothing, at all....for a filly to defeat males at 1 1/8 through 1 1/4 on dirt, that is way more of a rarity that a filly defeating males at 1 1/2 and longer....there hasn't been a Gr l at 1 1/4 dirt won by a filly for over 40 years...for Zenyatta to defeat Rip Van Winkle and Summer Bird, two true stayers of top class, at a distance that favors the strength of the male---that would be a biggie....  

Giralomo has NO CHANCE vs these salty vets--none--I only hope he goes, so we can have some pace...

LASMANNICK,

Courtesy promts my response to you.  I can't keep up with your pace in hypothetical situations, besides, having deliberately distorted my name as well as answered your own questions it doesn't take an "Einstein" to figure that you would do same to any answer I would give to you.  Nevertheless I agree Rachel would revel on the Pro-Ride and would have as good a chance as any to win, had she been prepared for the BCC.

MATTHEW W,

Obviously you don't think too much about how physical conditioning and track conditions affect a good horse such as Quality Road's performances in the Travers and JCGC, therefore you are prepared to dispise him after creditable losses to Summer Bird.  I wish you luck.  You will learn in time that to be an Einstein-type handicapper you must consider all angles.  I challenge you to come back here after the BCC and explain the results in the light of your brilliant handicapping theory.  

He should have WALKED home in the JC Gold, he had it all his own way--first run, outside so as to avoid carrying extra weight--namely Belmont Mud--yeah, I DON'T give him a mulligan for his JC Hang Job,  thanks for the luck but I won't need it!

Draynay,

Are you just ignorant or are you just stupid?

You have no idea of what your talking about.

Ranagulzion--we'll I'll save ya the time--no need to challenge me--I'll admit right here/right now---I....have.....lost ...before....yeah, this is racing, where you're wrong more than you're right and ya still keep on luvin it--if Quality Road indeed becomes aother horse that beats me---I mean, wouldn't losing my moolah be enough??!!

Draynay,

Zenyatta ran the second fastest Distaff/Ladies Classic in the 25 year history of the Breeders Cup.

She stopped the teletimer in 1:46.85.

Zenyatta would grab Careless Jewel and Music Note by the neck and not let them up (if she was in the Ladies Classic this year).

Your living in a fantasy world....but you always have.... so nothing's changed.

Ranagulzion

You seem very confident that Quality Road will win the BCC. I happen to like QR but I think he will not win as history is against him. Consider the following:

No stallion to date has sire consecutive winner of the BCC. You will note I did not say repeat winners (Tiznow) Elusive quality was the sire of 2008 winner Ravens Pass.

3 YOs have never won three consecutive BCC. 3YOs Sunday Silence & Unbridled won successive BCC they were followed by 5YO Black Tie Affair. Cat Thief & Tiznow won successive BCC. Tiznow would go on to repeat defeating the Brilliant Giant’s Causeway. The last two BCC were won by 3Yos Curlin & Ravens Pass. If history is to be followed no 3TO will win the 2009 BCC.

Take another look at Richards Kid. There is a unique piece of history associated with him. Four stallions have sired a winner and have also been broodmare sire of a winner. They are Relaunch (Sky Walker) Seattle Slew (A P Indy) Deputy Minister (Awesome Again) Alydar (Alysheba ) The same four of stallions were broodmare sires of  winners -Cigar (Seattle Slew) Cat Thief  (Alydar) Awesome Again (Relaunch) Curlin (Deputy Minister) Well Richards Kid’s broodmare sire is Broad Brush who was the sire of 1994 BCC winner Concern. He is going into the BCC with a victory in the Gl Pacific Classic and a 3rd place finish in the G1 Goodwood. He has history on his side and at a very good price.

Jason Godolphin's loaded! And the Classic is shaping up as a monster race! Love Richards Kid, love his last three--he's a real nice horse, late bloomer who has thrived in Baffert Barn....Love Summer Bird--there's real quality here, no pun intended cuz I like that horse a lot, too...Love Zenyatta, I just think she's a once in a lifetime horse--tall and thick and graceful and powerful---LOVE The Cup--WHEREVER it is held---But would love it more if The Breeders Cup were held on ONE day! Less is more, and that includes the sport of baseball, basketball and football--less IS more! HATE that the lady on the commercial is saying "come out to see Zenyatta, Mine That Bird and Summer ICE!!

Head-to-Head Props

Which jockey will win more Breeders' Cup races?

Rafael Bejarano (Garrett Gomez wont win any)

Which owner will win more Breeders' Cup races?

they will tie

Which trainer will win more Breeders' Cup races?

John Sadler

Who will have more Breeders' Cup wins?

Godolphin owned horses

Which horse will win by a larger margin?

neither will win

Which horse will finish ahead of the other:

Einstein

Mine That Bird (Quality Road will look to have it in the bag going into the stretch, with Summer Bird challenging him for the lead, nearing the wire Summer Bird will edge out Quality Road with a fast closing Richard's Kid fighting for second, then the din from the crowd will get hysterical, as a giant and midget come charging down the stretch from last and 2nd to last--the oddest image you'll ever see.

It will go to a photo, with the midget, over the giant by a tip of the nose, Summer Bird hanging on for 3rd, Richard's Kid 4th, Einstien 5th, Some Euro Horse 6th (done in by the pace), Quality Road 7th)

Which post position number will produce the most Breeders' Cup winners?

6

Over/Under props

Largest margin of victory in any one Breeders' Cup race:

under 5 ½ lengths

Number of Breeders' Cup wins for Bob Baffert:

under 1 ½

Number of Breeders' Cup wins by Todd Pletcher:

Over 2 ½

Number of Breeders' Cup wins by European-based horses:

under: 4 ½

Number of Breeders' Cup wins by American-based horses:

under: 9 ½

Number of Breeders' Cup wins by Garrett Gomez:

under: 3 ½

How many horses will be repeat Breeders' Cup winners from last year?

under: 2 ½

Combined number of lengths all 14 Breeders' Cup winners will win by:

Over: 32 ½ lengths

Number of Breeders' Cup winners bred in states other than Kentucky:

under: 4 ½

Number of horses to win Breeders' Cup races while wearing blinkers:

Under: 5 ½

Total number of scratches for the 14 Breeders' Cup races:

under: 4 ½

Number of Breeders' Cup winners at odds of 10-1 or more:

Over: 4 ½

Number of Breeders' Cup winners sent off as favorites:

under: 6 ½

Biggest longshot Breeders' Cup winner:

Over: 22-1

When Curlin ran in the mud for his BC Prep, I was critical they didn't come out for the Goodwood--This year, same for Summer Bird--mud for his prep while they ran lights out in Goodwood---one horse vanned in for the Goodwood, prepped, finished out nicely, worked 58, will be over 10-1, and won his only other 1 1/4 race, Gr l Kentucky derby...

Ranagulation

I am not trying to deliberately distort your name, sorry.....My hypothetical situation was simply that.  If Zen wins the classic it would be a tons more difficult field than Rachel ever raced against and yet in your expert opinion you might rate her up there with Rachel.

Here's the problem I have with Zenyatta's chances in the Classic. I don't believe she is as good as last year despite her nice workouts.

Case in point...her Beyers are  down, and the times of the same races are quite a bit slower. Her very unambitious connections chose the same four races leading up the the Breeders Cup last year and this year. She is running over one to almost three seconds  slower!  The Milady (1:41.17/1:42.30); the Hirsch (1:41.48/1:43.24); the Lady's Secret (1:40.30/1:42.89). Only in the Vanity did she perform better this year. Not exactly the form you want to see going into her first try against the best males in training over a distance she has yet to run.

matthew w

Winning Colors

Genuine Risk

maybe I did not understand the post but Matthew writes "....there hasn't been a Gr l at 1 1/4 dirt won by a filly for over 40 years..."

How can we forget both Winning Colors and Genuine Risk?  Both fillies and Derby winners... last time I checked it was a Grade 1 and 1 1/4 miles. Both were in the last 40 years.

garett gomez, juddmonte , mc peek,todd pletcher,ventura , einsten , quality road,over, over , under , over,under ,under, over,under,under,under, under,under,under ,over ,over,  Im n gonna give you some quick picks, ventura exact with inform desc , midday, music note exact with cj and life sweet,interactif,zensational exact with fatall bullet,mastercrafsman exact with midshipman,goldikova exact with zacinto,conduit,rip van winkle exact whith einsten gio ponti zenyatta,im gonna play those for sure

Ranagulzion, I hope you are right that Zenyatta can handle racing against the boys. I agree that this will be an uphill fight for her against this competition. If she even placed I would be thrilled. I would have a heart attack if sonething happened to her because we all wanted to see her step it up. I just love this horse, along with Rachel Alexandra. Gutsy girls both of them. The spectre of Eight Belles is still fresh in my mind.

Da Hoss I meant vs older males at 1 1/4--last filly was Princessnesian, 1968 Hol Gold Cup--no doubt there has never been a filly to win a race with this many top guns at 1 1/4--heard Shirreffs today on Willman's Show--he thinks the distance will be no problem--he does hope for a little luck, that they'll be strung out enough so they won't haveta go too wide with her--He's sounding very confident and that's making me excited! I'm gonna get there early and try to commandeer a bench near the walking ring, oh by the way Baffert's gushing about Zensational---I'm stickin with Gayego--and that bargain filly Blind Luck will be VERY hard to beat in the Juvi-Filly! Think GoGo Gomez will have a big weekend--please everyone stay healthy and ready to rumble come Sat--Fri, too!

da hoss and old timer,

    I think he meant a filly who beat older males a 10 pannels. That would seem to fit the critiria of 40 years.

During Super Bowl period  everything turn enthusiasts and plenty to earn more and more money the line in blog say it "you can bet on anything from whether the opening coin toss will be heads or tails, ".

Saratoga AJ- her times are slower because this year they have tried to beat her by setting ridiculously slow paces.  Ragozin said they have had a hard time figuring her numbers this year because of the pace issue.  They are divided on her last race.  Is she as good as last year?  Who knows, but the scenarios of her races this year have been compromised by 1:14 and 1:13 six furlong splits.  Plus they said her figures are even more compounded by the fact that she only does enough to win.  She's not the type to blow a field away.  It is a difficult call.  If you like her you will give her a chance.  If you don't, you won't.  All I know is that she can close with anyone in the race and I can't imagine her connections putting her there if she wasn't going to fire.  But, it's horse racing so anything can happen.  Ragozin said all in all, if she hasn't peaked, she fits with the best in the field.  They just aren't sure.

When a deep closer wins, their final time depends on the PACE of the race--check out Zenyatta's last two--49ish 1/2's, meaning the final tiome will be slow---I do not worry about that--she's at her best right now--Shirreffs isn't hedging one bit--he's very confident, and that is telling, when you consider how careful the guy plays it--I would say if she gets a good trip they're all in trouble...

If Zenyatta were to break down in the Classic it wouldn't be because there were males on the race track.

Although, I agree, the squeaky wheels would howl so loud that the general public would be fooled into thinking that Zenyatta was mishandled.

All of you keep running your gums.  You only have 5 days left.  Then I can listen to all the excuses why Zenyatta got whipped.  Trust me she wants no part of CJ or Music Note. Her times THIS YEAR are simply too slow.  She is simply not fast enough to factor in a race against the boys. Anyone with real racing knowledge will not bet a penny on her to beat the boys.

    Along the whole post position prop bet, how about a prop bet for the Classic where you bet which horse draws which post position.  I think the odds might be better at hitting the lottery than say betting Quality Road to draw PP 8 and actually hitting it.

    As far as the prop bets you have mentioned above, I'll take the over on the 22-1 as being the biggest longshot BC winner.  Only 1 time since 2001, and that was in the mud in 2007 at Monmouth Park, has their not been at least 1 horse win at odds of at least 22-1 or more at the Breeders Cup.  Desert Code did it last year in the Turf Sprint, Mieque's Approval did it in 2006 in the Turf Mile, Pleasant Home did it in 2005 in the Distaff and so on.

    As far as my own personal "real" bets, I'll play a $5 straight Pick 4 for fun ending in the Classic, Goldikova / Crown of Thorns / Spanish Moon / Einstein.  Goldikova is in my opinion, the best single at the Breeders Cup, Crown of Thorns will be very dangerous 3rd off the layoff and at a 2-turn mile, Spanish Moon will be 3rd choice behind his stablemate Conduit and Dar Re Mi but I think he'll prove to be the best of the 3 and Einstein is proven on this track and at this distance.  There's only going to be 1 favorite in the ticket and I think the other 3 are "live" longshots if you want to call them that.  Besides, I've done a lot dumber things with $5.  Good luck to all except Dray, lol.

Footlick and Matthew W:

So slower pace is your excuse? The difference in times from last years races to this year equates into 6+, 9+, and 13 lengths slower. She will go off the biggest underlay of the day, and one of the biggest in BC history. Bet her at your own risk.

Saratoga AJ- you may be right but the pace is the reason for that, not the way she finishes.  And I don't make excuses, I just try to point out the facts of the whole race, not just the final time.  If you don't think she can win don't bet her.  Many people here believe she is slower because of that.  The fact that she just does what she has to do in her races is always going to be an issue.  I believe she runs to her opposition, just like Zarkava last year.  When the opposition steps up, she will step up too.  But if, she doesn't, she doesn't.  I read all the figure makers from Globe and Timeform to Thoro-graph and Ragozin.  The last two have had trouble making reliable figures for her this year because they have crawled the first half of her races.  Last year they were setting much faster fractions up front to try to beat her.  This year they decided to crawl the early part of her races to try and be able to finish with her,  It didn't work either but it has made their figure making of her races very difficult-their words.  With that pace in front of her, there is no physical way she could run her last quarters in 19 flat.  So, you also may bet against her at your own risk because this is horse racing and there are no certainties.  BTW- Globeform offered a full refund for their BC analysis package if Zenyatta and Goldikova both win.  And they didn't feel Zenyatta was vulnerable here.  But, they are Euros so what do they know.

Footlick:

Look, if she wins, I'll tip my hat to her. But I will not bet her...no value and she's in deep.

All I will say is if she wins, it was a crying shame that her connections mapped out such a lousy, unambitious schedule for her. She should have been showcased at the great tracks like Belmont, Churchill and Saratoga. All on a REAL surface. And faced better competition than allowance mares in all but one race.

It will ultimately cost her HOTY, no matter what she does in the Classic short of romping by a dozen.

AJ yes, if they'd have mapped out that path, with her being a 5 year old she'd be sitting at home gossiping with Rachel.

Like most in the game are saying? HOY has become a popularity contest.

All the guys want to get in good with the Prom Queens rich Dad.

Funny usually those kind would have won it on their own.

Romp by a dozen? If she becomes the first female to WIN the Classic, in 5 years the public who watches the BC, the crowd we're trying to attract? Won't be able to tell you who the HOY was, but guarantee Zenyatta's name will come up EVERY time.

I know folks who bought tickets and were waiting to see if she went in The Classic and are flying out just to watch Saturday, me included. TVG has been saying that racing NEEDS Zen in the Classic.

Lets not pick and choose what we listen to from them.

Now my question is what kind of precedent does this HOY set?

Saratoga AJ- I appreciate that she won't be any value.  So I can appreciate not betting her.  But, I just like to handicap, discuss and study breeding.  It keeps me occupied in between art commissions.

Tim G:

8 for 8 at 7 different tracks, including the greatest tracks in the country, against the best competition around including the males, setting or just missing track/stakes records, with the highest Beyer numbers of the year, etc, etc, IS NOT A POPULARITY CONTEST my friend. GET REAL.

The turf writers would be insulted by your dumb accusation.

Saratoga- gifts should not be able to be given.  That should not ever come into play.  It should be a rule.  Period.  There is enough dissension and bias without that.

Footlick:

Unbelievable.

IMO if Zenyatta wins the Classic and Rachel is awarded HOY, then it will be one of the most tarnished HOY awards in recent memory.....You can say all you want about Rachel facing and defeating males three times, but when you analyze those races she faced them at the most opportune time.....Taking nothing away from her accomplishments, but to even remotely suggest that the competition in any of Rachel's races this year approached the class and toughness of those running in the Classic is pretty far fetched.....Arguably, the Classic is the toughest field in N/A this year.....period!

Lazmannick:

It's called Horse of the YEAR for a reason, not Horse of one Race. She ran only four times against crap all year, and almost lost at that, running slow times.

I'm done debating this with any of you who believe Rachel has not done enough to garner HOTY already. It's a dead issue. And I'm sure 90% of the racing fans and more importantly the turf writers and handicappers agree with me. Enjoy the ceremony next January.

Saratoga- weren't bottles of wine sent to the voters?  Or was that a rumor.  If it was I apologize, but I'm sure I saw pics of them. Anything like that should not be allowed.  Both Curlin and RA can stand on their own merits.

Sartoga

Hope you have a good two days wathing the BC or are you lucky enough to attend?.  I hope it's the latter because then you will get to see one of the best mares of all time strut her stuff.  LOL  

Well AJ, I'm not the only one saying it. Tim Ice said it, Frank Stronach and many others who are IN racing.

She should stand on her own merit but when you figure it's a VOTE and not based on POINTS?

Not too many are actually chasing it any longer. Just some with huge egos about the horses they paid outrageous sums for AFTER they were made horses.

Insulting Turf Writers? LOL

Even Jason has said repeatedly that he didn't place much on the HOY.

I'm betting if 'some' of these turf writers had opinions different from yours they'd be flakes in your eyes.

My opinion, there are several who are flakes PERIOD.

Face it they are people with opinions, their own way of coming to conclusions and NOTHING involving human preference is absolute.

I still say if Zenyatta wins the Classic and yes that's a big if. She DOESN'T HAVE to win by a dozen lengths to be considered one of a kind THE ONLY Filly/Mare to EVER win the BC classic.

You're pretty funny if you think more than 10% of the 'fans' watching the BC will even care about RA and whether she wins HOY. MOST who go to that event and/or watch on TV are CLUELESS about the Eclipse awards. Whatever happens with Zenyatta or MTB or Summer Bird or any of the others, they are there. For me, an older horse on an uncertain surface is a challenge that SHOULD be met by anyone wanting to help the game.

2 year olds are a different story though.

Lordy thes girls in love with horses. Part of me thinks it's great for racing and part of me thinks it gets carried away at times.

LAZMANNICK

No, watching on my 52" LCD TV with phone in hand (phone-a-bet).

Only California track I've been to was Del Mar in August. Only Breeders Cups I've been to were at Belmont.

BTW, IF ANY OF YOU ARE INTERESTED, CHECK OUT OAK TREE SANTA ANITA WEBSITE. IF YOU SIGN UP ON THEIR OAK TREE BETS AND DEPOSIT AND BET AT LEAST $100 WITHIN 30 DAYS, THEY WILL DEPOSIT A FREE $100 BACK INTO YOU ACCOUNT THE NEXT DAY. THIS IS ON THE LEVEL. SO, IF YOU SIGN UP, DEPOSIT $100, BET IT ALL ON FRIDAY'S BC RACES, WIN OR LOSE, THEY WILL GIVE YOU 4100 TO BET ON SATURDAY'S BC RACES. AMAZING DEAL!

Tim G

Ice says it because he thinks SB should be HOTY if he wins the BC Classic. No way of coarse since SB was easily beaten by 6 1/2 in the Haskell in between his Belmont and Travers win. Ice is dreaming. And who cares what Stronach thinks.

They don't vote anyway.

Every handicapper and local turf writer I know has ceded the HOTY title to RA. Argue it with them, not me.

Not important? Everyone remembers HOTY winners. It's still Racing's biggest award. Always was, and always will be.

Yep, who cares what ANYONE in the industry thinks.

You are right though, the industry is represented by racing secretaries who have their own agendas. If it's 'voted' on why not let the people in the game do it, similarly to the SAG and Academy Awards? Each licensed active member gets a vote. Believe it or not we DO know a good horse when we see one. I'm not arguing about Rachel per se, just the whole process which has been diluted.

Plus I'm disputing your claim that it's irrelevant if Zenyatta wins the Classic. I assure you the public as a whole, who as one famous trainer says, have a short attention span re racing (and most other things really) first, won't even KNOW that RA is HOY. Second that crowd we're trying to attract? They'll be watching the BC, NOT the Haskell or the Woodward or any of the other races RA ran in other than the Preakness, unfortunately.

As far as Stronach? He said this AFTER he won an award that everyone thought was pandering, including him.

HE is the one leading the charge for a point system but CERTAINLY not alone in it.

For an interesting perspective, see what Gary Player has to say about it. For a point of view from a trainer on Zenyatta, read what Barry, Aidan et al have to say. Oh but they probably are clueless as well.

Curious, what does AJ stand for?

p.s. Everyone remembers HOY award?

First we have people calling it HOTY, not ONE person in the industry that I know calls it that. Plus, we're talking about the casual fans who watch the BC, TC races and THAT is it. You aren't going to SA, but if you were I'd suggest you go around taking a poll and ask who won the award 5 years ago, heck 3 years ago is probabl a mystery to MOST people. You're fooling yourself if you think otherwise. And here I thought it was us industry folks that you all have been saying are out of touch......

Tim G:

I was there to see Kelso win 5 in a row. I've seen all the greats live since 1960. That was always the pinnacle award of the racing year...the best horse of that year.

Rachel is the best filly I've ever seen since along with Ruffian. And like I said before, I really don't wish to debate this any further. I got handicapping to do for the next two days. Ciao.

s, guess you're AJ?

Like I said I'm not debating RA at all. I'm saying it should be based on a point system and THAT way you'd have the best horses showing up at the best races. THAT is the theory behind it.

Like I've documented on here before, my family has been in racing for generations and I've also seen most of the greats run in person since the 50's.

RA is terrific, BUT, as applies to Zenyatta, the level of competition must be considered. Ruffian, Bayakoa, Azeri, Lady's Secret and of course Winning Colors winning the ULTIMATE race against males. All the others as well. Greatest filly ever? Matter of opinion.

As far as HOY? That award as the Eclipse Award and an official designation of that has only been around since 71(?).

Tim G:

First HOTY Awarded in 1887.

Chosen by vote since 1936.

See:

en.wikipedia.org/.../American_Horse_of_the_Year