Do you consider work outs when handicapping or just PP and trips?

Some of the horses you picked have not worked well looking very bad in the process.

Blind Luck, Evita Argentina and Proviso were not impressive in their works which should be a cause for concern that they might not fire big on Friday.

I saw Mastery on TVG and he looks like a very small horse.  Is he small or does he just look it on TV?

Check out In The Slips, a juvenile turf filly shipped over from Europe.  She didn't make it in the field but she's listed in the pps.  She's won carrying highweight of 133 pounds in a handicap (at age 2), won on right and left handed courses and has run on synthetics.  I was hoping she'd get in the field so I could play her -- the DRF pre-entry morning line had her at longish odds.

She's apparently staying in America from now on.  Certainly one to watch in the future.  

Handicapping from a Euro perspective.

The Marathon is a lock for Euros.  Mastery is the favorite but if we want price and I dont understand why this horse is a longshot given he won this race last year, Muhannak should definitely be in everybodys exotics.  Man of Iron will be tough, but I am leaning towards Father Time and Muhannak to give Mastery the most competition.  Also we cannot overlook Jonathan Sheperd, and Cloudy Knight will be in my tickets.

In the Juvenile Fillies Turf  I like Lillie Langtry, along with Elusive Galaxy and we cannot exclude Junia Tepzia and the American Hatheer.

In the filly Sprint I see a matchup between Ventura gunning towards Seventh Street, although Only Green is my tempting longshot and I will play her in the exotics as well as on top, she basically has the best pedigree and should love the synthetic track.

Juvenile Filly race, has no Euro presence, but I like Bickersons, with Negligee and the longshot Champagne D'Oro.

In the filly turf I see a two horse race between Visit and Midday.  For a longshot I really like Maram,  I likke Forever Together but she has no value and the pace will probably harm her this year.  

In the Ladies Classic, I see Rainbow View overtaking Proviso.  My longshot is Cocoa Beach, who finished second last year and could very well handle the race this year.

In the classic on saturday, I urge everybody to take a long look at Twice Over.  I wanted Mastercraftsman in here over The Ripper because I simply think he is faster and better suited for this race, he should romp in the Mile Race.  Coolmore always seems to send the wrong horses to certain races, as was the case in Chicago where they sent th Rock to the mile and Hawk Wing in the Classic when it should have been the other way around.  I like the Ripper but I like Twice Over a lot more especially at those ridiculous odds, he defeated the best horse Coolmore has in Fame and Glory.  And should handle these very easily his only threat should be the mare, but given the large field and she will have to come wide, I dont think she will be able to close on Twice Over because he is just too fast.  And how about this for kicks, he comes from an American Family as his 5th dam is Kerala the dam of the American great champion Damascus.  So Twice Over thats your winner.  He's no Sea The STars but he doesnt need to be to handle these.

In the Turf Its Conduit vs Dar ReMi and Spanish Moon.  Enough Said.  My longshot though is Red Rocks, you never know with these older champions when they will surprise us,

The Mile I love Zacinto over Ferneley and Goldikova.  Have to include Delegator and Gladiatorus in the exotics.

In the Dirt Mile is Mastercraftsman, the best two year old in Europe last year beating the best two year old from America last year Midshipman.  Coolmore over Godolphin.  The others are no match in this two horse race.

In the Juvenile Turf, it will be Punced over Viscount Nelson, Buzzsword and Awesome Act.

In the Juvenile it will be a Euro walkover as Beethoven, Radiohead, will be on top.  Do not discount Alfred Nobel and Vale of York from the Exotics.  The American Lookin At Lucky will be lookin too far at The Euros behinds in this race.

In the Sprint the lone Euro Fleeting Spirit, thge filly is the bestg sprinter in Europe and should have a great showing.  She is extremely fast and will be at a price.  Gayego is a good bet too, but I am really liking Join in the Dance I really think he is the best from  the Americans.  He has been running longer, and I still cant get him off my mind from the gallant race he and Regal Ransom gave in this Years Kentucky Derby, and at 30-1 I will laugh all the way to the bank.

In the turf sprint I say its Square Eddie and Cannonball with a late charging Desert Code.

Those are my tips, Heres to another  EURO Cup.

Marathon: Cloudy's Knight, Mastery, Nite Light

Juvenile Fillies: Negligee, Always a Princess, Biofuel

F&M Turf: Pure Clan, Magical fantasy, Maram

F&M Sprint: Sara Louise, Informed Decision, Ventura

Distaff/LC: Careless Jewel(money for jam), Life Is Sweet, Music Note/ Cocoa Beach

Back in 1979 I remember handicapping The Wood Memorial, getting the DRF early that morning. When I saw Instrument Landing worked  3F in 33 seconds breezing two days prior and had Angel Cordero in the irons the 6/1 final odds was a gift from the racing Gods that I will never forget. Ever since that day, workouts has always been a big part of my handicapping analysis.

As for Friday, I like Cocoa Beach's work the best of all the starters on Lady's Day.

Jason I think Proviso may suffer from the dreaded Euro Bounce. I used to think it was BS, but the stats don't lie. Horses usually run their best races right off the plane. If they are brought back soon after that effort they usually regress badly. Uh oh for Proviso.

I loved Blind Luck's Oak Leaf! As far as her not looking good in her latest work, I heard the opposite from a trusted pal--that Blind Luck is making a good impression on the track! She is a single! I'll stick with Life Is Sweet in the Ladies--NO PACE in her last two--only a horse like Zenyatta could rally for the win in those races--that tells me Life Is Sweet is gonna be tough on Friday and her stablemate's gonna be tough on Sat! The other local horse, Lethal Heat, at least gets a "break" between races and has really looked good to me on the track--How she's 20-1 I cannot understand, she looked good against Zenyatta and before that (right before that!) she dueled with Grazen, who would've been a contender in the rubber band mile, before that she's hanging with Fernelly, Lethal Heat plays ball with some tough guys! I also think Lethal Heat will get first run on Careless Jewell--if ANY horse can get first run--in other words, if any horse can catch her-- The morning line guy Mr White also thinks Karellian will be lower than Zacinto in the mile! LOVE Seattle Street, and for similar reasons--the price--but also love Motion, and did notice she may want that flat, two turn mile! The cozy post is ok as well--break, let her run, her natural speed will take her to the catbird seat at the 3/8 pole, then it's "nighty night, Danny Boy", nice $15 single horse!..Ventura is a single--outside, best kick--7 fur is an outside kicker's race! Ventura is a real good horse and I wish she were up against Goldikova cuz I would've bet on her--she should've beaten Gio Ponti in March but she propped/ducked in so bad (can't remember what she did) it cost her one/two lengths!...taking Nite Light cuz I love the lead when it's a horse who does his best with a snail's pace and he'll get it Fri!! 80% in exacta, too,just some great ole Majestic Light blood in him! A fave of mine in the 70's, turf or dirt! At least I can say I was in front for 1 5/8 miles, if he flattens in the last 1/8...

The Marathon is truly as much of a lock as you can find in this year's Breeder's Cup. I will take 9-5 and consider it a gift if I can get it on Mastery(GB).

Also may include Cloudy's Knight in an exacta, looks a little devilish in his DP and Rosemary is riding, oh baby.

After the Classic I hope they set up a special race for Zenyatta, out at Churchill, so she can dirt one last time--There's buzz about Zenyatta, and she just ran a :22 and change quarter around the far turn of her prep race--she has been able to close into slow paced races, in which her stablemate Life Is Sweet could not--I just don't see any of her rivals with that kind of kick, ready or not, here she comes!

Euro the Conqueror:

Your dead on!

Why are they calling this the "Breeders Cup"? It should be the "Euro Cup"!

I love all your guys comments except for Euro's if i had a red marker i would just scribble all over his post. At least Euro knows that Gayego is a beast! No love for carless jewel in this group! Cant wait for the next two days.

Euro, You are Nuts, That was the funniest post I have read in a long time, Thank You!, I needed the laugh...Good Luck on those picks...

EURO:

Let's see what spin you put on after Breeders' is over. You're living in a fantasy world!

HEY JASON:

Well said! EURO is a laugh,isn't he? lol

Please remember two things when wagering on the CUP,J. MURTAGH has turned in nothing but horrid rides on live horses year in and year out in the CUP,(this years dirt mile should prove it)and last year the MEDICATION TRAINERS GOT CLOBBERED...just look it up...SADLER,TODD,STEVE,DOUG...etc.etc. and a jockey soon to be noticed..AHMED AJTEBI. GOOD LUCK TO ALL.

Sorry Jason, I was pulling for the Phillies, I really hate to say this, But, The Yankees were just the best team this year, Being a Red Sox fan, That was tough to say...

I feel more confident in Saturday's Races, But I will give Friday a shot...

Marathon: Mastery & Sir Dave

Juvenile fillies turf: Elusive Galaxy & Tapitsfly

Juvenile fillies: Negligee & Always a Princess

Filly & Mare Turf:Pure Clan & Midday

Filly & Mare Sprint: Ventura & Game Face

6.Ladies Classic: Rainbow View & Mushka

Euro the Conqueror doesn't sound very European.  I lived over there and never knew any of them to use American slang or American spelling.  

In any case, the Euro angle is getting overplayed.  They won TWO dirt races last year and one of them was expected (marathon).  

Now just because of one fluky Classic, some seem to think they're going to dominate in all races, even the dirt sprint which is laughable.  And lest we forget they were a total bomb on "Ladies Day" last year.  Their best finish was fourth and that was in the F&M turf, where they're supposedly so dominant.  

Jason,

You and I seem to be on the same page for almost all of Friday's races.  The only glaring difference in my picks is in the F/M turf, no love for Midday or Dynaforce.

A longshot for the Juv. Fillies Turf is La Nez.  That race may be the highest paying exotics for the weekend along with the Juv. Turf on Saturday.

My Friday Picks

Marathon: I do not care. i hate this race. I never watch a race that is that distance so I will not make a choice.

Juvenile turf fillies: Rose Catherine, house of Grace, Lillie Langtry and Tapitsfly

Juvenile fillies: Beautician,Devil may care, she be wild and always a princess

Mare turf: Pure clan, rutherine,forever together and magical fantasy

sprint: Evita Argentina,Informed decison,seventh street, ventura

ladies classic: careless jewel, cocoa beach, life is sweet,and proviso.

I will boxed them in exactas and hope to hit.

Friday Races:

Marathon

1. Mastery

2. Cloudy's Knight

3. Muhannak

Juv. Fil. Turf

1. Smart Seattle

2. Elusive Galaxy

3. Potosinan

Juv. Fil.

1. Devil May Care

2. Biofuel

3. Always A Princess

FM Turf

1. Ruthereine

2. Visit

3. Midday

FM Sprint

1. Ventura

2. Evita Argentina

3. Silver Swallow

Ladies Classic

1. Mushka

2. Cocoa Beach

3. Life Is Sweet

Marathon: Mastery and Cloudy's Knight. I'll box it but I'm hoping Rosemary continues her "mastery" with him...LOL)

Juv. Turf: Tapitsfly

Juv Fillies: Blind Luck and Beautician, it's Blind Lucks home track and she seems to love it.

F&M turf: Magical Fantasy and Forever Together. I think Magical as the edge this year.

F&M Sprint: not a clue

Ladies Classic: Careless Jewel and Mushka ( ex. cold)

Living up here in New Hampshire we don't have a lot of horses get to the big races...in fact I can only think of 4 off the top of my head ...Dancer's Image, Mom's Command, Gander and NEGLIGEE!

So obviously,

Negligee

Beautician

She be Wild

Lethal Heat

Careless Jewel

Cocoa beach

Ventura

Informed Decision

Evita Argentina

Forever Together

Pure Clan

Rutherienne

House of Grace

Smart Seattle

???

Marathon? I'm cluless.

Jason,

I thought Euro's comments were arrogant too untill he said he liked Join in the Dance. Change arrogant to ignorant.

F&M Sprint Ventura, Evita Argentina

F&M Turf Midday, Pure Clan

F&M Juvenile Always a Princess, Beautician

F&M Turf Sprint Junia Tepoza, Tapitsfly

Lady Classic Rainbow View, Proviso

Marathon Nite Light, Mastery

Good Luck to all. Let's all hit some pick 3's!! Have fun Shandler..

Jason, you often come up with some pretty good picks but Always a Princess with Gomez aboard is not even on your list?  First time at the distance she nearly pulled it off and now she attempts the distance a second time after blazing workouts and still no love?

They will never catch her! Without her on your ticket it's an automatic loser.

Um... Tapitsfly, Tapitsfly and Tapitsfly.  And, uh, Tapitsfly.  Enough said.

Mickey Rev and Greg "Mr Meow" J so both of you are attacking again but don't like it when your attacked.That's Euro's opinion prediction so what everyone has one why attack?Hey Mickey you read  my admission of eating my words about Zen and had to eat crow, well we all do sometimes in life.Hope your memory improves.Just enjoy 2 great days of racing.Predictions are words that's it .The real lock would have been Nicanor if he wasn't injured.lol

Here are my Fri picks

Marathon:  Cloudy's Knight & Father Time

Juv Filly Turf:  Junia Tepzia & La Nez

Juv Filly:  Negligee & Always a Princess

F & M Turf:  Magical Fantasy & Rutherienne

F & M Sprint:  Ventura & Sara Louise

Ladies':  Life Is Sweet & Cocoa Beach

I know Music Note and Careless Jewel look really tough, but  I just felt like taking a chance here.  I really didn't see much of a throwout here.  I'm hoping for an honest pace and that Music Note won't let Careless Jewel get away from her.

THE PHANTOM

Please fire your comedy writer,you aren't close to being funny! BTW regarding Citation racing twenty times as a three yr. old. Name one horse currently that's capable of pulling that off? I think you realize that horses are more fragile and less durable now. Case in point,how many this year that were considered contenders for the Derby fell by the wayside due to injuries? As for your crack about the welfare of the horse,here's a clue pal,they aren't machines I'm ALWAYS FOR THE HORSE FIRST,FANS SECOND! Bottom line is you obviously disagree with Jackson's decision,but he can do whatever he wants and RA will win HOY without a doubt. Jackson could have retired Curlin as a three year old,like Street Sense and others',but he brought him back for another year. Give him credit,he's not a coward as you state. As far as GREG J goes he's forgotten more than you could ever learn,he's a class act!

MEH,

We may both be wrong, but I agree completely that the Euro angle is getting overplayed big time this year. Every race is different and Raven's Pass and Henry are not running this time. We'll see.

Marathon: Nite Light

JF Turf: Lillie Langtry

Juv Filly: Connie & Michael

FM Turf: Forever Together

FM Sprint: Seventh Street

Ladies' Classic: Rainbow View

I appreciate everyone sharing their Friday picks.  Only one question Jason: what is your knock on Careless Jewel?  Just curious, that's all.

My Friday picks were:

Marathon: Mastery, Cloudy's Knight, Father Time

Juvenile Fillies Turf: Little Langfry, Tapitsfly, Junia Tepzia

Juvenile Fillies: Beautician, She Be Wild, Blind Luck

Filly/Mare Turf: Magical Fantasy, Forever Together, Midday

Filly/Mare Sprint: Ventura, Sara Louise, Informed Decision

Ladies Classic: Cocoa Beach, Careless Jewel, Music Note

Can't wait for Friday.  I have to play hooky from work (calling in with "equine flu" ha ha) but it's more than worth it!

I think you are all taking Euro the Conqueror far too seriously!  Come on, have you not heard of our famed British Sarcasm?!

I think we (the Euros) have a great chance in several races and I would love to see Henry Cecil get a long-overdue BC winner.  He is much loved on this side of the pond and after his recent ill health seems to be turning a corner.

Don't forget you can't call it the World Thoroughbred Championships without us turning up, and the more horses we send the more our chances of winning increase!

My personal choices, I don't bet on every race:

Dar Re Mi

Forever Together

Informed Decision

Goldikova

and Fleeting Spirit, each way (to win, place or show)

Mr. Shandler,

What is it that is so arrogant or so bad about my picks, You and I seem to be in accord in 4 out of the first 6 races.  Oh I know, it must be my Saturdays picks that disturb you.  Well The sprint to me offers no value on Zensational or Fatal Bullet, they both have speed, they both have the rail.  No good for me.  The Dirt Mile to me its all Mastercraftsman and Midshipman, tell me who will pose a threat to these two.  And the classic,  I saw Gitano Hernando who isnt a Top horse over here, toy with some of the Classic contenders.  The only one that poses a threat to Twice Over and Rip Van Winkle is the mare, but she will have a target the size of Big Ben on her back, Its too tough for her to make up the ground I think.  So its not arrogance,  I like some American horses in a lot of races but  they have no value for me, too low odds.  And there some real value in the Euros, especially in Twice Over.  So is that a good enough explanation on my picks.  I see a lot of others also agree with me in some races.  Its not my fault the Euro contingent is stronger this year than last years, and that it offers better value in bets.

Relva,

You were the one who got me into Zenyatta, I think the mare is great, but dont tell me you dont believe she is going to have a target on her back.  If you dont, then its you who live in a dream world.

I am going to play a Life Is Sweet, Rainbow View & Lethal Heat Exacta Box.  If Life Is Sweet wins all the Zenyatta bashers will start to get nervous.

Footlick, Music Note is a lock and will dominate to the finish taking over Careless Jewel when asked.  She has been pointed to this race all year and would win no matter who shows up. Zenyatta would have been looking at a 3rd place finish here so moved to the boys to claim victory for running 6th.  Music Note is the lock of Friday.

John Alice, I love Tapitsfly and the Irish Filly, Junia Tepzia. I also think that Rainbow View wins easy. The toughest race by far to cap is the Juv Filly. So many question marks. All I know, Is I am going to have quite a few $27 P3 tickets and p4 tickets. If Ventura wins, my single, I will be a happy man

DRAYNAY

I wish you good luck except in the Classic cause you know my pick there. Anyway,hope you have  good weekend.

EURO

Yes,I can't disagree with you regarding that point. Zenyatta will have a target on her back.

I always hear that horse racing is a humbling game. I wouldn't think so from this board...the same people using words like "locks" over and over even though they have been spectacularly wrong before.

I would suggest people use boxes and not try to nail one single horse. The payoffs in the breeders cup are so good that you can easily double your money back on what would usually be a saver bet.

Dray- not disagreeing.  She has great numbers this year.  Just would like a little extra value.

    I posted this earlier on another segment of BC Chat, but to start in the Marathon, it will be tough to beat Mastery.  Unlike last year's favorite Sixties Icon, his connections have had this race in mind for a while.  So for the Marathon I'll play Mastery for the win and Cloudy's Night for 2nd.  If I play a tri I will run Father Time, Nite Light and Eldaafer for 3rd.

    In the Juvenile Fillies Turf I really like House of Grace.  She broke her maiden at first asking and going 2 turns.  That's an angle I like and it worked last year for me with Maram.  I'll play House of Grace for the win and Junia Tepzia for 2nd.  Junia Tepzia will be overlooked by many, but I think she's as good as the other Euros coming over.  If I play a tri, I will run Hatheer, Lillie Langtry, Potosina & Smart Seattle for 3rd.

    In the Juvenile Fillies, no Hot Dixie Chick and no bad trip (thank God Desormeaux took the mount on Connie and Michael) eqauls a win for Beautician.  I'll play Beautician to win and Negligee for 2nd.  If I play a tri, I will run Blind Luck, Always A Princess, She Be Wild, Connie & Michael & Zilva for 3rd.

    For the F&M Turf, Forever Together was simply using the First Lady as a prep.  It's nice to win them all, but I don't think her connections are concerned.  She was further back early on in that race than she's ever been.  She won't be as far back on Friday so she'll have less to do and an extra 1/4 of a mile to do it.  I'll play Forever Together for the win and Visit for 2nd.  Visit will be a little further off the pace this time around and have a little more left in the tank in the last 1/8.  I respect Midday as she has top Euro form, but you can't play them all if you want to come out ahead and I think she enjoys the ground a little softer than it's going to be.  Once again, if I decide to play a tri, I will run Pure Clan, Midday & Magical Fantasy for 3rd.

    For the F&M Sprint, Ventura will be hard to deny in here.  I actually like her post being on the outside in a 1 turn race.  Gomez can keep her outside of everyone and out of any potential trouble.  He'll be able to see everything in front of him and know exactly when to push the button.  I'll play Ventura for the win and Sara Louise for 2nd.  In a tri, I would run Informed Decision, Evita Argentina & Free Flying Soul for 3rd.

    Finally in the Distaff (refuse to call it Lady's Classic) I think Proviso will run lights out.  She appears to rounding back into form, especially after the Spinster, and you can't argue the quality of company she's kept in Europe for the last year or so.  I'll play Proviso for the win and Rainbow View for 2nd.  I like Rainbow View shortening back up an 1/8 and the switch from turf to synthetic.  I would round out the tri with Careless Jewel, Life is Sweet & Music Note.

    Good luck to all and hopefully one of the bloggers cashes in big on Friday (yes I'm even including dray in that statement).  Of course I hope that blogger is me 1st and foremost, but nevertheless hopefully one of us does.  Jason, enjoy the rest of your trip in Cali.  You'll have nice Ohio Valley weather waiting back here for you in Louisville when you return.

Friday:

Marathon: 1. Father Time  2. Cloudy's Knight

Juv F. Turf: 1. Jungle Tale  2. House of Grace

Juv F: 1. Biofuel  2. Negligee

F&M Turf: 1.  Midday  2. Maram

F & M Sprint:  1. Ventura  2. Evita Argentina

F & M Classic:  1. Careless Jewel  2. Life is Sweet

After having seen the Kentucky Derby this year, how can anyone say any horse is a lock????

Good luck to all.

Euro- I understand your picks.  It's hard to get value without really going out on a limb in some of these races.

Euro,

I think you went overboard on your picks, just my opinion, your picks are not balanced.  Ive been an advocate of American racing all year , but I respect the Euros a lot, especially when it comes to the Breeders Cup.   I know when to bet Euro and I know when not too. But I disagree as I dont see this years Euro class as great as others from the past.  As for my picks:

Marathon:  I like Cloudy Knight and Father Time.  I love Man of Iron's pedigree so I'll bet him too.

Juvenile Filly Turf: Lillie Langtry and Elusive Galaxy

Juvenile Fillies: Blind Luck and Always a Princess.  

Filly Turf:Forever Together and Magical Fantasy, Visit to show.

Filly Sprint: Its all Ventura

Ladies: Music Note hands down the best in that field.  Cocoa Beach is probably her toughest competition.

As for the Classic Twice Over is a good horse man, but I dont think so, to me it will be a repeat of the Pacific Classic, Richards Kid over Einstein.

Friday Picks

Marathon-Cloudys Knight

Juv F TURF-Hatheer

Juv F -Always A Princess

F/M Turf-Maram

Ladies Classic-Life is Sweet

If ONLY ONE OF THESE COULD come in

Mike I wish you and everyone a very Merry Breeders Cup Weekend. I am going to enjoy great racing and cheer on Gayego, Music Note, and Quality Road.  Enjoy!

Saturday picks

Juv T-Zip Quick( LAUGH)

Juv-Lookin at Lucky

Mile Gladiatorus

Dirt Mile-Neko Bay( DONT LAUGH)

TURF-Red Rocks(LAUGH)

Classic-EXACTA-RICHARD'KID-Zenyatta(laugh)

My Friday picks, top three, any order, listing by post position.

Marathon: Muhannak (IRE), Mastery (GB), Man of Iron (can't seem to overlook the dam of the last named.

Juvenile Fillies Turf: La Nez, Lillie Langtry, Tapitsfly

Juvenile Fillies: Zilva, She Be Wild, Biofuel

Filly and Mare Turf: Forever Together, Magical Fantasy, Pure Clan

Filly and Mare Sprint: Evita Argentina, Informed Decision, Ventura

Distaff: Careless Jewel, Lethal Heat, Life is Sweet

Good Luck to all, and may they all come back safe.

Cheers,

Heather

Dray- Hope you have a great weekend too.  And good luck to all.

I am finding many of these races hard to handicap - My only clear single is Blind Luck in the Juvenile and I am rather taken aback that so few people are picking what seems to be the obvious choice.

J. Filly Turf - I will go with Lily Langtry and House of Grace.

Filly/Mare Turf - Forevertogether and Maram.

Not sure about the others.

Jason Dray Mike Footlick Greg Saratoga LDP Tim Monica etc., and etc.....you all know who you are

HAVE A GREAT BREEDERS CUP WEEKEND.....THE ONLY SURE WINNERS ARE YOU PEOPLE WHO POST ON THIS BLOG.

DRAYNAY

Thanks!

Juv. Filly Turf

Tapitsfly

Juv Filly

Devil May Care

Sprint

Seventh Street

Filly & Mare Turf

Rutherienne

Marathon

Nite Light

Ladie Classic

ALL Careless Jewel!

OK, My brain is fried, I am done...

I just want to throw out a big Thank You to all the educated, knowledgeable fans of this blog, It is refreshing to know that there are so many great fans of this sport!  It has been one incredible up and down year!  Here is to everyone having a great Breeder's Cup Weekend!  Hope everyone does well, and, Most Important of all, That all the Horses come home safe...

Saturday's Picks, top three finishers, any order, listed in order of post position:

Juvenile Turf: Viscount Nelson, Pounced, Interactif

Note on sprints, normally I'm way off--still a new handicapper

Turf Sprint: Gotta Have Her, Dimondrella, Desert Code

Sprint: Gayego, Capt. Candyman Can, Fleeting Spirit

Juvenile: Noble's Promise, Akenite, Lookin At Lucky

Mile: Gladiatorus, Justenuffhumor, Goldikova

Dirt(lol) Mile: Mastercraftsman, Bullsbay, Chocolate Candy

Turf: Conduit, Dar Re Mi, Presious Passion

Classic: Zenyatta, Einstein, Rip Van Winkle

Cheers,

Heather

Dray, good luck. I will look elsewhere.

Laz, thanks. I am going to the turf club at Churchill tomorrow and Saturday. if anyone is in KY, come up. Pick 3's will be dominated tomorrow. I am getting excited. got my money from my bookie, and I ready to roll tomorrow. I may walk in and throw 50 across on Mastery for fun at 2-1 or higher. Father Time is 0-2 against, so if not, going with Pletcher. Start out with a BANG

STEVE S

As usual you have something cute to say. Let's see what you say after Zenyatta wins Saturday!

Right back at you Laz.

Hey I can only say KUDOS to Gary Player!

Said what most of us are thinking.

Whatever happens with Zenyatta? Mr. Player put it the best of anyone I've seen!

I agree with MEH's post that the Euro angle is being a bit overplayed.  They have excellent winning shots in 4 races: the Turf Classic (Conduit/Dar Re Mi), the Mile (Goldikova/Zacinto, the Dirt Mile (Mastercraftsman), the Juvenile Fillies Turf (Lilly Langtree).  That's it.  In the Breeder's Cup Classic I'm looking at a total reversal of last year's result with dirt horses Quality Road, Giralamo, Summer Bird and possibly Regal Ransom or Mine that Bird dominating (notice that they are all 3YOs).  If Rip Van Winkle is unaffected by his foot ailments and reports on his best form he certainly could get up for 2nd spot (paying tribute to Sea The Stars).

Based upon her two seasons of competing at Santa Anita Zenyatta has not shown the speed figures capable of toppling this star-studded field.  That is not to say she isn't capable, since an undefeated horse may always have more in the tank than is revealed.  I commend her connections for a long awaited try outside her comfort zone.

I look forward to the post Breeder's Cup LAMENTATIONS of Euro The Conqueror, also Matthew W. LOL.    

Just discovered this blog yesterday,like the fact that the bloggers know what their talking about(some blogs people are clueless).Anyway more observations and picks.FATHER TIME might be decent,JUNIA TEPZIA..Juvenile Filles-IMPOSSIBLE...must be the all button.MIDDAY looks live,paceless filly and mare SEVENTH STREET could steal it (street cry sire should handle synthetic). CARELESS JEWEL stone cold single...remember the following,ANYTHING with DANEHILL in immediate bloodline loves SANTA ANITA'S HARD TURF COURSE...JENINE SAHADI knows how to win a BREEDERS CUP SPRINT RACE...she's saddling a FILLY against the boys saturday...MUST BE LIVE!  also inside draws have always been big DISADVANTAGE down that hill..toss inside post.

Marathon: Mastery, Cloudy's Knight

Juvie Filly Turf: Lisa's Kitten, Lillie Langtry

Juvie Filly: Blind Luck, She Be Wild

F&M Turf: Forever Together, Rutherienne

F&M Sprint: Ventura, Informed Decision

Distaff: Life Is Sweet, Careless Jewel

Marathon - Eldaafer - He only starts to run at 1M 3/16ths. Will be overlooked by most and will bring value to all exotics. Though I think he will win it all right on the wire just when others thought they had it in the bag.

May all have two great days, and even greater returns!

Kevin    

Ist To Euro -Good Luck - Join the Dance? The Rock in Chicago was the wrong race? He specialized at a mile all year, got a horrendous break and looped the field in a massive run to miss by a little and you think he was in the wrong race? I thjink High chapperel won the Turf that year (I won't swear on it) and The Rock didn't need to be taking on that horse at a distance he didn't race at.

One of the most powerful handicapping angles in the bReeders Cup i to throw out horses that have had long campaigns(when I say powerful, I mean really strong stuff) Knowing that, does anyone have concerns about Lillie. That's a 2 ywar old who seems to have run like 12 races this year(no form in front of me).

The final time of works only mean something in the context of the horses previous pattern. All Baffert horses clock bullets. You cannot take anything from it. There are many other examples. a lot of trainers(and all human athletes) believe that the last week of a race should be a maintenance work. Its called tapering. With that being said, sometimes a work does indicate something special. For instance, I was able to single Pleasantly Perfect in the Classic a few years ago(medaglio D'Oro)allowing me to go deeper in the sprint(Pick-6) where I picked up the winner who was the horse I was able to add. i didn't hit the whole enchilada but I scored a very nice payday for 5 of 6. PP clocked a :58 and change work that week. It was significant because he did it easy(and surprisingly) for a trainer who doesn't let them go that quick. The horse had no works like that all year. also. PP was a terrible bleeder who bled in like 90% of his races prior but still was managing Beyer scores in the 115 range. This work seemed to indicate a horse who was feeling good and possibly about to race in his first race at a 100%. If the horse had been dropping bullets before every race then this would not have indicated anything at all.

Dennis H. since you are new here let me fill you in on a few things.  First, I already gave out the winners to the Distaff and Classic Music Note and Quality Road. Secondly, you should know I am the smartest one here and am known for knowing everything and being the best looking.  Welcome.

Not too many people choosing Sara Louise for the Filly and Mare Sprint, I'm surprised.  She gave Indian Blessing the race of her life after that one finished ahead of Informed Decision in the Ballerina.  She looks to still be improving.

Did anyone see the footage of California Flag after he lost his rider and ran back to the barn?  Scary stuff.  Glad everything turned out OK.  That isn't what you want to see happen at any time, especially before a big race.  

So many horses have impressed in their workouts over the pro-ride and the turf these past few weeks.  Doesn't always translate we know to performance in the afternoons.  My favorite workouts came from Richard's Kid and Zensational.  These Baffert trainees can sure pick it up and lay it down.  Also Einstein and Noble Court were others I really liked watching.  We'll see how those workouts translate to race day performance.  Though I think Zen gets cooked gunning from post 1 with other speedsters next to him and left him out of my ticket.  I know, I might be eating that one....

Jason I'm impressed.  Leave Evita, Magical Fantasy, and Life is Sweet out at your own risk...ID just took out Carlsbad which would be one of the West's top sprinters so use this as a guage.  I look for the West Coast form to hold like it did last year (with the exception of Well Armed).  

Thx Laz- you too!

What about Nite Lite for the Marathon?  Nobody is talking about him.  Also, just a mention is my old buddy Cloudy's Night.  Won last time out in stakes.  Yes, he is older than dirt (9)but he's lovely.  I've got a few emotional dollars on him to at least hit the board!

My Bad^

I read more closely and many included Cloudy's Night.  Good Gelding.

my fancies for what it's worth

father time (a dreadful race not worthy of its lofty status)

smart seattle

negligee

visit (the other oasis dream horse should win it really)

sara louise (beware of arabs bearing gifts)

careless jewel (you tube, good enough for me, ra mark II)

oh well, there goes the rent.

enjoy it people and to the few anti euro comments out there. get a grip! this is not the ryder cup. just enjoy the racing and the fantastic horses on display. who cares where they come from.  

Jason, at least the Marathon is actually closer to being one this year.

I've also heard that Mastery is a lock, but guess that's why they still run em. Think it will be more entertaining that last years race though.

Are you one who is still handicapping during the post parade?

Draynay is also known for his modesty and meekness LOL.

I like Careless Jewel for the Distaff. Music Note second.

Jvenile Filly Turf-Lilly Langtry

Filly and Mare Sprint-Ventura

    Anyone know where I can go to see Becky's Kitten's work from 10/25?  I replayed his race in the Summer Stakes at Woodbine and thought he ran pretty well especially making his way through all that wall of traffic to finish 2nd only by 1 1/2 lengths.  I see in the form where he worked :58 2/5 around the dogs on the turf at SA on 10/25.  I don't see many horses do that.  Based on his last race in the Summer Stakes, the fact he's already won going 2 turns on the turf, he's been training at SA since the Summer Stakes and that recent work, he's my pick at a M/L of 12-1.  I have to think he'll be almost twice that by post time.  I just wanted to see that work to build my confidence.

There is no male in the Breeders Cup Classic that can turn 12 second eighths throughout the entire race.

Zenyatta will turn a sub two minute mile and a quarter (due to the pace) in this year's Breeders Cup Classic and will grab these males by their throat and not let them up.

Clocker Donald Harris has stated:

"In regards to Zenyatta, there is no comparison between the workouts last year and this year. I have never seen Zenyatta train this well."

Dottie and John are sly as a fox.

Keep in mind that Zenyatta's opposition has been trying "anything" and "everything" to slow down the pace this year.

Don't be a fool and get caught in the numbers with this mare. You'll pay the price.

Zenyatta ran the second fastest “Distaff/Ladies Classic” in the 25 year history of the Breeders Cup and stopped the teletimer in 1:46:85.

Grade I Apple Blossom:

You should take some time out of your life and do yourself a "favor" and watch the Grade I Apple Blossom. This one race tells the tale. It's the race that made the public understand that this mare breathes different air. The Grade I Apple Blossom was Zenyatta's fourth lifetime start.

Zenyatta made a mockery of that Apple Blossom field. She was 12 lengths off the pace and blew past that Grade I field (as if they were claimers).

Zenyatta appears to be much better on the dirt than the synthetics.

Watch this mare closely in this frightening performance on the dirt:

www.youtube.com/watch

Note:

If you watch closely, you'll notice that Ginger Punch is 12 lengths ahead of Zenyatta going into the far turn, and at the wire, she ends up 12 lenghts behind Zenyatta.

PGA golfer "Gary Player" calls out Jess "No Show" Jackson:

www.bloodhorse.com/.../gary-player-to-owners-racedont-hide-them

Gary Player hits the nail right on the head!

Nite Light/Mastery...Smart Seattle/House Of Grace...Blind Luck/Beautician....Midday/Forever Together....Ventura/Informed Decision...Life Is Sweet/Music Note...some pretty tough gals tom, but Sat will have the fireworks! Will try to fatten my bankroll with Talamo in races one/two...Riveria Cocktail will get the trip in race one and in race two She's Very Rare closes big time--will get the pace to run at/Cal Bred will be at least 20-1!

There's a horse in the Juvy-Filly that has several angles to like--Bickersons,who came out early to prep in Oak Leaf--got third/gets Rosario, who is the real deal!/and has worked like a hole in the wind! I'll use with Blind Luck/Beautician...

I have noticed that some of you are handicapping challenged so I am here to help.  I can tell you I will be 4 deep in all the turf races.  Here are the winners in no particular order.  Pure Clan is simply to fast at the end of a race and should wear everyone down to the wire.  Father Time upsets and wins the Marathon and Smart Seattle takes the Filly Turf. Always a Princess has Gomez aboard again and that is good enough for me and Seventh Street is simply too talented and last but not least Music Note runs away to a new Breeders Cup record. You can thank me later.

Friday's picks:

Marthon: Mastery(GB), Cloudy's Knight

Juv.Fil's Turf: $$$House of Grace$$$, Potosina, Junia Tepzia

Juv.Fil's.: $$$$BIOFUEL$$$$, Devil May Care, Negligee

Fil.&Mare Turf: Forever Together, Magical Fantasy

Fil.& Mare Sprint: Informed Decision, Seventh Street

Ladies Classic: !!$$$$MUSIC NOTE$$$$!!, Life is Sweet

Good Luck All and Happy Racing!!!:)

Here's why I pick Life Is Sweet: Has Music Note won around two turns?...Which horse gets class relief? Best odds?....things point to her and GoGo, especially at 8-1!

I'm gonna boldly call the line maker out and proclaim my opinion that Gayego will be the post time favorite in the Sprint! He has him at 5-2 compared to Zensational at 7-5...and 20-1 on Gotta Have Her seems a bit generous--I'll take it! Tyler Baze has Gotta Have Her and Blind Luck, two fillies I will be playing....

Hi All!

MY BIRTHDAY IS NOV. 7TH!!!! I'm having a big BC/birthday bash. I've been able to pull in alot of new racing fans so what better way to celebrate the greatest sport in the world and my birthday than to party hard!!! But I'll be waiting to blow out the candles until right before the Classic!lol  Wish you ALL could be here to celebrate with me but you will be in my heart!

I'm still handicapping for Saturday but this is how I'm going for Friday. Keep in mind that there will be ALOT of boxing.

MARATHON: Nite Lite, Mastery,      Muhannak.  L/S: Black Astor

JUV. FILLY TURF: Tapitsfly, Smart Seattle, Lillie Langtry. L/S: Rose Catherine

JUV. FILLIES: Blind Luck, Beautician, Negligee. L/S: Biofuel

FILLY AND MARE TURF: Forever Together, Magical Fantasy, Visit. L/S: Midday

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT: Informed Decision, Ventura, Sara Louise. L/S: Game Face

LADIE'S CLASSIC: Careless Jewel, Music Note, Proviso. L/S: Lethal Heat

Much good luck to everyone and safe blessings of return to every jockey and horse!

Gonna take a real good look at Colonel John on Sat--will pounce if he looks right--I expect he will!

Careless Jewell is a great "bet against" angle: the horse who beat nothing! Three year olds, suspect at that--she owns them--now it's the big gals, and thats a huge class hike! I'll box Music Note/Life Is Sweet and play LIS to win! Her Santa Margarita, at this track, was a monster race--she prepped, two solid 6 fur works...she's gonna be long wound and she'll come flying...

In a race that looks like it will have a lively pace, the Juvy-Filly seems to set up for Blind Luck, maybe Beautician...and maybe even the #12 horse, Biofuel, who won for fun last time with the deep-close tactics at Woodbine...vs a pretty solid field...

HELLO JASON:

I like for the win: Zenyatta,Carless J. Ventura,Fatal Bullet

I did some more capping last night, and La Nez is starting to look enticing at 20-1. Also, if you look back at all of the races of Life Is Sweet and Lethal Heat, Lethal Heat is always ahead, so take that into consideration when rounding out your tix.

Marathon Cloudy's Knight/Father Time

J F Turf House of Grace/Smart Seattle

J Fillies Negligee/Blind Luck

Filly Mare Turf Midday/Pure Clan

Filly Mare Sprint Ventura/Informed Decision

Ladys Classis Rainbow View/Proviso

dony see Music note here hasent dont much in 2 turn races to bad drays throwing money away on this one, be back late with saturdays picks

Let the races begin and may everyone win lottsa dinero, including you Micke REV an Greg J.

Laz,

Same to you!  Have a great Breeder's Cup!

MTB in the classic. I used the "Let It Ride" reverse process of elimination method.

I'm scoutin draynays picks so I know who has no chance to win. I'll bet heavily against most anything he picks. LOL he couldn't beat a bunch of amateurs in a handicapping contest!! It's a great angle people, use it!!

One thing stands out about The Classic: While there are a couple of horses I wish were running--when I look down the list of horses who ARE running--that's a pretty strong group!

marathon,,,mastery,,,father time..mile turf.....lillie la nez...house of grace....sprint....ventura...slam dunk....juvenile...wide open,,,,blind luck,always a princess,devil may care,negligee....turf...forever together,,,single...classic....music note ....single

DRAYNAY:

Question? What do you think of Looking @ Lucky for next yr and also,Take Control(another Baffert horse)  Hope you win lots this weekend. Thanks!

Tim G & Roundtable

I was expecting that J. Jackson would hold a news conference and tell us how R. A. was doing.  I guess he is playing golf with Gary Player.

Fish, I doubt that, after calling out Jess for not bringing RA to the biggest OVERALL day in racing. LOL

Actually a press conference announcing what she's doing next year wouldn't have been too shocking.

It worked again!! Bet against nay nay's pick Music Note and I won bigtime!!

Ventura ran her same 90 speed rating-people that bet her to win get an F-grade