The Future is in Vegas

As I mentioned in comments in a previous post, I will be going to Las Vegas this weekend for a couple days of football and horses. Of the 60 or so hours that I'm in Sin City, probably 50 of them will be spent in various casino sportsbooks--hopefully making some money.

Whenever I go to Vegas I like to place future wagers, and since the serendipitous timing of this trip falls in late September I will be able to bet both the Breeders' Cup races and the 2011 Kentucky Derby. Since the Breeders' Cup is six weeks away, you have to look hard to find any value there. The Derby, as we all know, is a crapshoot. The value is everywhere, but getting your horses to the starting gate, let alone to win the race, is a shot in the dark.

Either way, I'm in Vegas, so it's fun to take a few shots. What do I have to lose, expect my hard earned money?

Recently, a blogger (thanks tcc) turned me onto a web site where you can access all the current Breeders' Cup and Derby future odds from Wynn. Below, I will link to each odds page and give my thoughts on a few horses I am considering, mainly for the Derby. If you have any strong opinions, let me know.

2011 Derby Odds:

There are more than 150 horses on this list, but Wynn will give you odds on any 2-year-old out there, even if it is not listed. All you have to do is ask and they will take the bet. As I've stated before, I like betting Derby futures in the fall much better than the spring when the official Derby pools open. Not only are the odds much bigger, but you can bet any horse that you want--not just the 24 that the pool offers. In 2006, a co-worker was in Vegas a couple days after Big Brown broke his maiden on the turf. He put $20 on him at 150-1 and found himself a nice little windfall. Of course, those stories are rare, but they are the ones that keep us future players going.

I have one rule when playing Derby futures this far out: Do not bet any horse under 40-1. There are way too many things that go wrong eight months from the first Saturday in May and I am not playing big money here, so if I do hit, I want it to be a big score with little invested. I am obviously intrigued by Uncle Mo since I wrote about him a couple blogs back, but he is currently the future book favorite at 28-1. Too low for me.

The following are a five 2-year-olds that am considering putting a few dollars on, thanks in part to some bloggers that have brought them to my attention. Again, I know it's a crapshoot and the chances that they will even make it to the starting gate are slim. But I'm not talking big money here--maybe $10-20 apiece.

Boys At Tosconova-40-1: The odds are right on my cutoff point and by the time I get to Vegas he might be even lower. We'll see. But to me he is best 2-year-old out there right now and Dutrow said something to the effect that he is more talented than Big Brown at this point in his career. Worth a stab if he is still around 40-1.

Elite Alex-200-1: Son of Afleet Alex out of an Unbridled mare was a $300,000 yearling. Broke his maiden July 3 going five furlongs at Delaware for Tim Ritchey in a professional manner. This is mainly a pedigree play.

Smash-100-1: By Smart Strike out of a Dixieland Band mare. A $400,000 yearling owned by Kaleem Shah and trained by Bob Baffert. Broke his maiden July 18 first out at Hollywood by 2 1/2 lengths going five furlongs.

Soldat-150-1: Broke his maiden in his first start on turf in the two-turn With Anticipation Stakes (gr. IIIT) on Sept. 3. Not sure if Kiaran McLaughlin will try him back on dirt this year, but if he keeps winning I'm betting he will at some point next year. He's by War Front, out of a Coronado's Quest mare.

Wine Police-150-1: He's a notch below Boys At Tosconova and Stay Thirsty right now, but I think he has a big upside and the price is right. Asmussen lost Kantharos to injury, so this one is probably his top remaining juvenile.

Breeders' Cup Classic Odds:

No real value here. Zenyatta is 3-1, Quality Road 4-1, Blame 5-1. That will likely be pretty close to their odds on race day, assuming all remain healthy. I don't like anyone else enough to take a shot right now.

Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic Odds:

Nothing I like here either. Blind Luck is 2-1, Devil May Care 7-2. Both close to what you will get on race day. Rachel is the 4-1 third choice, which is interesting.

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile Odds:

I really think Vineyard Haven is a play here. I still think he is a beast despite his dull last effort and will be favored when all is said and done. He'll likely go to the Kelso next month as a prep and if he wins he'll be the horse to beat at Churchill's one-turn mile. He is 10-1 right now.

Gayego at 15-1 intrigues me too. He looked awfully good in his race at Presque Isle.

Nothing else really caught my eye in the other divisions, but here are odds for some other races just in case you want to take a look.

Sprint

Turf

Mile

Filly & Mare Turf

Juvenile

I probably wont be back with another blog until next week, but I do like Exhi to win the Pennsylvania Derby on Saturday. Feel free to throw out any picks for any of the weekend races.

Vegas, baby. Vegas. Wish me luck, I'll need it!

85 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Frank J.

Hi Jason,

If I may tell your readers what I told you in my e-mail to you: I just got home from Vegas last week. I got Stonewall Jackson at 150-1. I like his pedigree so who knows like you said, it's a shot in the dark and I agree with Jason, tough to find value in the BC. Good luck Jason. Anyone know anything more on Stonewall Jackson let me know.

22 Sep 2010 2:21 PM
its not easy being as wrong as draynay always is

Why not make like draynay and wait until the Derby Futures in January?

I heard from a very reliable source that he's the guy who puts thousands on the "all others" in the first round and drives the price down to 8/5 or less. I guess this way he can cover hundreds of horses and brag he had the winner in January if one of the "all others" wins in May. Typical bet for him, chalk off the board and doesn't win that often anyway.

22 Sep 2010 2:38 PM
Billy's Empire

Here is a tip. Bet on every 2 year old in the Barn of Lukas. He is on a comeback trail, and I have a feeling he is going to dominate the TC trail next spring....  

22 Sep 2010 3:45 PM
jimthepimp

Jason how could you go away from your horse "First Dude"? I know the horse hates to win and always runs well. He isnt running against Looking at Lucky or Fly Down. Fly Down has beaten him 3 or 4 times. But this dude is getting 8 lbs from this group of 2nd rate 3 year olds. At equal weights the dude might of come in second but with 8 lbs it will be an easy win. How did the dude get 8 lbs on the other contenders here anyway? The dude finally wins at a short price.

22 Sep 2010 3:46 PM
Jason Shandler

Jim: I know. First Dude will probably win but he'll be even money if A Little Warm doesnt go. Let's see what Exhi goes off at. I think its a chalky exacta.

22 Sep 2010 3:50 PM
long time horseman

Just took a peak at the odds (thanks for the link). If I were out there I'd have to drop a few on Gio Ponti in the Classic @ 20-1 possibly the biggest overlay right now. With his pedigree he could easily move up on a fast Churchill strip.  Even though his record this year isn't up to last years standards he's been right there and I'd have to give him the best shot of upsetting Zen, Blame, and Lucky at 1 1/4m. 20-1 is just to juicy for a horse of his class.

22 Sep 2010 3:52 PM
Billy's Empire

evening Jewel 20-1 in ladies Classic??? that is a steal IMO

22 Sep 2010 3:53 PM
Billy's Empire

haynesfield 25-1

musket man 8-1 favorite

trappe shot 18-1

here comes ben 15-1

I would have no  problem betting any of these 4 to win in the BC dirt mile at these odds.

22 Sep 2010 3:57 PM
Billy's Empire

have fun in Vegas Jason. Lucky sob

22 Sep 2010 4:05 PM
YYZGUY

In the Sprint I kind of like Hollywood Hit. But I think I a can get better odds Breeders Cup day than the 15/1 he's at in the futures.

He should romp in a tune up tonight at Woodbine.

22 Sep 2010 4:28 PM
Jason Shandler

Long time: Gio is likely going in BC Mile.

22 Sep 2010 4:39 PM
long time horseman

JS,

I see w/ The Shadwell the mile seems probable but if they do opt for the Classic, I think shortening up to the mile @ KEE will do nothing but make him even sharper. Plus the mile is so loaded this year that there's at least a shot they could opt for the Classic. My money would go down, but it's your money so either way Best of Luck in Sin City and have a blast.

22 Sep 2010 4:54 PM
mz

Jason: Bear's Future 60/1 in the Juv.

Have fun but try to get back home with enough money for the cab back to your house from the airport.

22 Sep 2010 5:14 PM
long time horseman

JS,

P.S. Nobodies going to get get 20-1 on Gio in any race at Post-time he ever runs in, PERIOD! And come on, admit it, you have to respect a horse that's had the career he's had, running in the the company he has.  Can he beat the three I mentioned in the Classic??? Be sure, at least, he'll give em a run for the money. As much as I love him I don't think he can handle the Euros in the Mile, and Clemente is one sharp horseman, which is is why I think it is money well spent if your trying to get a lot for a little. This is Future Wagering after all.

22 Sep 2010 5:34 PM
In aint easy being good!

IN the classic you have to give some love to Fly Down nick zito has had a rough year and think he has a live horse in fly down. He is alot better than overrated ice box. I think Fly Downs best distance is 1 1/4 and should at least hit the board come November 6th. If he didnt go 7 wide coming home in the travers he would of won but I glad he didnt! Anyone know his beyer speed for the travers?? Blame is a monster though and just keeps coming at you! You Zenayatta fans are going to be so bummed when Z fails to hit the board!

22 Sep 2010 5:35 PM
tcc

Jason:

Boys At Tosconova-40-1: The odds are right on my cutoff point and by the time I get to Vegas he might be even lower. We'll see. But to me he is best 2-year-old out there right now and Dutrow said something to the effect that he is more talented than Big Brown at this point in his career. Worth a stab if he is still around 40-1.

Wasn't DWL also talking up Dublin as his Derby horse when he was still a 2 year old?

22 Sep 2010 6:01 PM
long time horseman

Sprint: Here Comes Ben 15-1

F/M/Turf: Eclair De Lune 10-1...Ron w/ his Fillies

Juvenile: Stay Thirsty 10-1

Turf: Youmzain 25-1...probably won't come but his "Oh so Close, to many times" in Europe's premier Race a.k.a. ARC. Here's hoping he crosses the Pond, if for no other reason than he deserves a shot.

22 Sep 2010 6:14 PM
Householder

Jason thanks for pointing out to me that Churchill is a 1 turn mile.  With that being said, Kinsale King looks good in the sprint at 9-1.

Forget about Blind Luck at 2-1 but take her partner Evening Jewell at 35-1 on the grass.  I think she is undefeated on that surface after her nose loss in the Kentucky Oaks.

Wasted Tears and the Usual QT at 20-1 in the Mile (Turf) looks interesting.  

Ah...the bettors love Zenyatta.

3-1 on a Breeder's Cup Classic repeat!  A six year old mare!  The odds are certainly with her to make that historic run.

22 Sep 2010 7:30 PM
Rachel

Say hi to my Dad...

22 Sep 2010 7:35 PM
Ted from LA

Jason,

If you go to the sports book at Mandalay Bay, they have a future bet that looks like a lock.  It's an over-under bet, which I usually try avoid, but the over-under on the number of winners Draynay will pick in 2011 is 3.  Take the Packers in Monday Night Football too.

22 Sep 2010 8:09 PM
skyfire

Since this is swing for the fences time, I think  Richard Mandella is a  great horseman who will get a horse there at last:  Acaffella,

22 Sep 2010 8:55 PM
mike rullo

jason

can you get $100.00 on the horse

to honor and serve. I will cut you the check. please email me

the best 2yr old this year

22 Sep 2010 8:58 PM
The Rock

Jason,

I know I've mentioned her before, but I can't believe Red Desire is 10/1 right now for the F&M Turf. I'd be surprised if you'd get 3/1 on her or higher on BC day. I love this horse now as I loved Ventura in the F&M Sprint 2 years ago and the Informed Decision Ventura exacta last year in the BC. Hammer down b/c after the Flower Bowl, it'll drop big time.

Love the call on Smash. I saw his maiden as well. Really really impressive. Haven't heard from him since though.

Haynesfield is intriguing at 25/1 for the Dirt Mile. Seems better suited to this race. Gone Astray would be a sleeper. You never know when he's gonna run a big one. But when he does, he's explosive.

Cape Blanco in the turf at 12/1 would be my play. I figure race day he'd be 7/2 or 4-1.

The Usual QT looks like the value play in the mile @ 22-1. In my heart though the Euro's will be extra tough with the talent coming over.

It's tough on 2 year olds right now. The best I've seen so far that I think will get the distance later on is Jaycito & Smash. I think the other's we've seen now will find the longer distances a bit much in the spring time. Long ways to go..

Good luck on Sunday - I went with Jax in my 4 teamer with BAL, CIN & NE. I know its chalky but the 4 teamer pays the same with a heavy fave or in a tight spread game. I think the latter 3 will be blowouts.

23 Sep 2010 12:15 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

You can get Discreetly Mine in The Classic for 100-1. What a scam. He's not even in the race, it should be a million to one. They used to give better sports futures odds. What happened, did they get burned too many times by the Minnesota Twins? American Lion is 60-1 and he's retired !!! And on and on. Majesticperfection is 25-1 in the dirt mile. These are current !!!! Almost all of the Superbowl odds are too low. Jason, I do hope you're going to do some parlays though including one that will payoff huge. A huge payoff is going to happen sometime in the Pool Exacta futures 2011 prior to the Derby. That's a nice one to take a stab at. NCAA BB is a little interesting. Take a stab at a few 500-1 maybe. 7-1 on the Rockies to win the NL Pennant isn't too bad. Good luck, win a 50 grand parlay or Keno, or a Pick 6.

23 Sep 2010 2:29 AM
Bellwether

GOTTA SECOND U LUCKY SOB...GREAT LUCK...& HAVE A SAFE TRIP...ty...

23 Sep 2010 5:19 AM
Bellwether

GIO GOT JUKE N DUE BUY BUY HI$ OWN CONNECTION$...IF HE$ BACK TO HI$ TRUE FORM ALL OF U CAN KI$$ THAT A$$ GOOD BUY!!!...LONG LIVE THE DIRT!!!...ty...

23 Sep 2010 5:34 AM
sodapopkid

Jason,   Don't be spending all your money or your earnings if you win any in Vegas. Don't forget , November is right around the corner and you will need all that money to pay off your Zenyatta bets in the Classic.  

23 Sep 2010 5:53 AM
sodapopkid

Billy, You're giving MTB 200-1 odds in the Classic?  

What would you give him in the other BC races?  lol..

23 Sep 2010 5:57 AM
sodapopkid

Bellwether 23 Sep 2010 5:34 AM

Re:  Thank god I bought two bottles of liquor instead of one when I went to the A.B.C store.    

23 Sep 2010 11:02 AM
John

Jason,

Why look at the future odds at the books in Vegas.

Try the European books - they're offering better odds. Ladbrokes just opened and is trading Zenyatta at 6.0 (5-1).

23 Sep 2010 11:36 AM
Brian Russell

Jason,

You wrote "all you have to do is ask and they will take the bet".  You are right but only a very small one.  I once tried to be $2,000 on a 100-1 shot and, after several phone calls and a 20 minute wait, they gave me $100 at 100-1, $100 at 50-1 and then cut the horse to 25-1.  I went to other casinos and he was already cut in price everywhere.  Imperial Palace offering to take $100 at 60-1 was the best I could do after that.  This was not the case as recently as the mid-90's but their future book has become a joke - bad prices and small bets only.

23 Sep 2010 12:42 PM
Jason Shandler

Brian: You were gonna place a $2000 future bet? Wow, which horse?

23 Sep 2010 1:43 PM
SPLITS OF 12

The horse I'd bet to win the 2011 Kentucky Derby is a maiden by the name of Jaycito. He's by Victory Gallop, out of Night Edition, by Ascot Knight. He's raced twice, both starts from the rail. In his MSW debut, he ran a game second to Indian Winter, and those two kicked clear of the field by 7 lengths. In his follow-up, trainer Mike Mitchell, entered him in the G1 Del Mar Futurity on closing day. He was 18-1, and Indian Winter was 5-1 at post.  IW had only defeated Jaycito by a half-length in their first match-up. Although Jaycito, drew the rail again in this contest, I thought the better value, was obviously with Jaycito. Anyhow, this horse ran such a game second to J.P's Gusto, the top two-year-old on the West-Coast, in the Del Mar Futurity in defeat. I thought he looked more like a horse who wants two turns and longer distances. If you watch how J.P's Gusto gallops out after the race, he looked very strong indeed. But then as your watching, you see Jaycito on the screen and he's still running, almost as if Mitchell had instructed Martin Garcia to race him after the wire. The other thing i like about him is he is a January foal. And if you ever see Runnymede Yearling , you'll notice how much bigger and physical that they are than others. Just food for thought? Jaycito had a lot that went wrong for him in that race. He acted like a pro and still finished strong for Garcia. I think they make quite a pair. He broke good, but was soon veered towards the rail when the 2 horse came into him. Garcia then was patient and kept Jaycito in the back after a blistering pace of 22.0 and 45.0 up front. Sitting about 12-15 lengths off the pace, Jaycito started to make a move when they turned for home. As they straightened up, Jp's Gusto had kicked clear and was moving nicely. By that time, Jaycito was just getting his momentum going when he was forced into the 9 or 10 path. Unfazed by being swung out wide, Jaycito quickly regained his momentum and gobbled up yardage in the stretch easily. Quickly, I came to the realization that this horse is for real! The way he gobbled up ground was beast like, kind of like his sire, Victory Gallop who was 2nd in the Derby, 2nd in the Preakness, and 1st in the Belmont. Jaycito, comes from a very nice mare with a strong dam sire. Look out for Jaycito! Mike Mitchell and Ahmed Zayat, race him at Churchill Downs in the BC Juvenile. I think he's going to love it there.  

23 Sep 2010 2:01 PM
mz

Canford Cliffs - out of the Mile.

Shucks.  Could have been in the money (after Goldi)

23 Sep 2010 2:48 PM
Zen's Auntie

Jason, How about new to the list for KD futures Band Box (with a bullet!) I'd drop 50 on him at 200 to 1 what the heck. such a tasty colt trained by Jenkins where can I sign up??

23 Sep 2010 4:22 PM
Mike Relva

IT AINT EASY BEING GOOD

Isn't that what you said last Nov regarding Zenyatta? lol Good luck with that.

23 Sep 2010 5:06 PM
Tim

I wouldn't touch Stay Thirsty at any price. Repole and Pletcher both say they knew Uncle Mo was their best two year old long before he was raced. He outworked Stay Thirsty all three times they worked together and each time Uncle Mo finished ahead of him under a hand ride while Stay Thirsty was in an all out drive just trying to keep up with him. Uncle Mo has been outworling older stakes horse recently so his maiden win was no fluke. Obviously it wasn't a fluke because nearly every year the 6 furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga on the Travers card is won by firster with fast works who wins the race by ten lengths, but they always just run away from the field and win in 1:11. Uncle Mo won by 14.25 lengths in 1:09.1 while rating on the lead and opening up on cue. Very professional effort and even better than Formal Gold's bebut at 3. Pletcher recently said he's just hoping Uncle Mo runs as good in the Champagne. He's not looking for any improvement.

23 Sep 2010 5:38 PM
Trebloc

Brethren is going to win the 2011 Kentucky Derby!  He fired a bullet work last Sunday, his connections are top class and he is bred to get the distance.  Did, I mention his half brother won the 2010 Derby?  You heard it here first.

23 Sep 2010 9:54 PM
SPLITS OF 12

Its sad that Kantharos had to be retired. That chestnut was a true Triple Crown threat. Perhaps the best two-year-old I've ever seen. he was an amazing talent. If he was healthy he'd be the talk of this board.

23 Sep 2010 10:38 PM
JasonC

Jason,

good luck in vegas.

question for everyone, I'm going to Vegas for BC weekend. where do you recommend playing the card with consideration for a great "horseplayer atmosphere"?

23 Sep 2010 11:52 PM
Maurice

A pal told me about a twitter feed he found last fall that followers Derby prospects - www.twitter.com/derbycontenders. The dude doing this thing is on top of these horses as soon as they cross the wire - really amazing. It's a great source for finding ones before everyone jumps on the bandwagon and the odds plummet.

24 Sep 2010 12:27 AM
Greg J.

Jason,

Have a great time in Vegas, and good luck!

I will mention him again, I love the two year old colt Tanzana, even though I didn't see him in the futures?  I am curious Jason, if you ask Wynn, wonder what odds they would give you on him?  If you don't mind, place $20 on him for me, you can just subtract that from our wager when Zenyatta wins the Classic :)

Again, have a great time!

24 Sep 2010 7:49 AM
Brian Russell

Jason,

I was doing the owner a favor.  He himself didn't think he had a real shot and wanted the ticket as a momento.  Had that not been the case I might have booked the bet.  He should have been 300-1 which is why I was shocked that I could not find one race book manager to either understand that or have the authority to take the bet.

24 Sep 2010 9:31 AM
longwaytomay

Jason,

 Don't waste your money betting on Boys At Tosconova. He looks like a million bucks but I don't believe he will ever go a 1 1/4, just looking at his pedigree. I don't believe he is as good as BB either. The hype machine is in full swing over at the Dutrow barn. JMHO. Good luck in Vegas.

24 Sep 2010 12:13 PM
The Rock

Longwaytomay,

I agree with you that Dutrow hype's his horses big time. I'd put him up there with Kent D.

24 Sep 2010 12:59 PM
Aluminat

I bet Crowded House across the board at Del Mar for the Pacific Classic.  When I saw that he was all jacked up in the paddock and post parade, I changed my bet because I'd lost money on a few horses that acted the same recently.  He went off at 12 to 1 and was beat by Richard's Kid for the win.  Aside from dancing around and being a stink, he looked good.  It was poly, but I bet he can run on the dirt.  Futurebook bet?

24 Sep 2010 1:22 PM
In aint easy being good!

haha mike r I did but I backtracked my statements before the race I promise but this year Big Z will not be on my tickets and is it true that blind luck will be facing zenyatta next week?? If so bye bye perfect record for Zenyatta. Blind luck will romp Big Z and leave her standing still!

24 Sep 2010 4:28 PM
Bet Twice

It aint easy,

Didn't Hollendorfer say they were avoiding Zen and likely to go in the PE against RA?

24 Sep 2010 5:02 PM
stevebiscuit

Even Hollendorfer has openly admitted that he wants no part of Zenyatta.

In aint easy being wrong!

24 Sep 2010 6:22 PM
Mike Relva

IT AINT EASY BEING GOOD

The time I would panic is if you changed your mind and picked Zenyatta. AKA The Draynay Curse. lol

24 Sep 2010 6:58 PM
Coldfacts

To all the Quality Road and Zenyatta fans here are some cold facts that you should consider going into the Breeder Cup Classic.

Quality Road:

No stallion since inauguration of the Breeder Cup has sire two different winners of the Breeder Cup Classic. Elusive Quality was the sire of 2008 winner Ravens Pass. In addition to this negative he is unlikely to repel the challenge of Blame going 10F. There is one positive in Quality Road’s favor. Of the 26 running of the Breeder Cup Classic 4YOs have won 10. This positive is also a negative as Blame a colt that is better at the classic distance is also 4YO and his sire is not on the winners’ board.

Zenyatta:

No 6YO has ever won the Breeder Cup Classic. Two multi talented horses tried as 6YOs and failed. The great Cigar tired as a 6YO but ran into a take no prisoners Skip Away. The versatile Pleasantly Perfect tried at the same age and ran into the brilliantly fast Ghostzapper. The only repeat winner is Tiznow and he won at age 3 and 4. Zenyatta’s 2009 victory falls into the trend of the great race as 5YOs have now won 7 of the 26 running’s. A Zenyatta victory would create history for her age group. She has already created history with 2009 victory. Does anyone really believe a 6YO mare will out run the stretch running 4YO Blame on what can be considered his home track? She has one positive in I her favor. When both Cigar and Pleasantly Perfect ran in the BCC as 6YOs they had earlier in the same year ran in the Dubai World Cup. Zenyatta did not travel to Dubai.

NB: 3YOs have 9 BCC. This therefore means Luckin At Lucky has a better chance of winning the Classic than the Zen mare.

24 Sep 2010 8:57 PM
sodapopkid

Blind luck will romp Big Z and leave her standing still!

In aint easy being good! 24 Sep 2010 4:28 PM

Re:   In your dreams......It sure wont happen on the race track.

24 Sep 2010 9:28 PM
jayjay

Jason : Just bet on any horse Borel is on, he owns CD according to your best handicapper blogger LOL.

24 Sep 2010 11:57 PM
Bellwether

SODA POP...HOW WOULD u LIKE your CROW COOKED???...

25 Sep 2010 5:59 AM
AngelaFromAbilene

I don't know that Blind Luck will leave Zenyatta "standing still" but it should be a great race!

25 Sep 2010 9:36 AM
SSA

Jason, Super Saturday at Belmont next week is shaping up to have real strong fields especially in the Jockey Gold Cup and the Vosburgh. Looks like the Vosburgh field will have:

Girolamo

Latigo Shore

Riley Tucker

Mr. Fantasy

Snapshot

Temecula Creek

Wildcat Brief

Driven By Success

I think Mr.F has a shot here, do you?

25 Sep 2010 11:53 AM
-Keelerman

The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes was run today at Ascot race course in England. Mafki and Rip Van Winkle took each other on in the one mile event.

Both were upset by Poet's Voice.

I didn't see the race, but Rip Van Winkle finished second, followed by Red Jazz and Beethoven. I don't know what place Mafki got, but it was out of the money.

This certainly changes the Breeders' Cup picture.

Also, Curlinello finished second today in the Garden State Stakes, closing late to be beaten by a neck. Sweet Ducky won.

-Keelerman

25 Sep 2010 3:06 PM
tcc

Jason:

I am going to give #6 Distorted Economy a try in the the Super Derby.(wps)

25 Sep 2010 3:15 PM
sherpa

I know you're in LV, Jason .. just want to give kudos to you on your very astute THS pick of Apart in the Super Derby!  Hope you don't leave all your winnings in Las Vegas!

Sheesh, this is getting to be habitual! ;-)

25 Sep 2010 9:07 PM
GunBow

First Dude = L'Carriere

Remember L' Carriere? He ran 2nd in the 95' BC Classic and 3rd in the 96' Dubai World Cup.  Each race he would be up near the lead, get passed by half the field, and then somehow hang around to get a big chunk.  First Dude runs the same.  He gets passed around the turn like he's going to run 6th, but then re-rallies and hangs around.  In the Penn Derby he almost came back and won after appearing absolutely out of it.  One thing is for sure, he's not the superstar some were proclaiming him to be.  Maybe they should try him from off the pace?

25 Sep 2010 10:01 PM
Matthew W

The Tiznow breeding showed up in the Pennsylvania stretch--and (again) First Dude runs a strange race--gets passed/comes on again....the (soft) Super Derby had a real nice winner--that horse will make noise--can run all day--why not take a stab, the Classic is gonna have some speed this year, and questionable staying Quality, pardon the pun--I hope Jess sends Rachel out there to face off with Quality, and outlast him, in a race within a race--I wouldn't Blame Jess for trying, pardon the pun, yatta yatta yatta....

26 Sep 2010 12:59 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Jason

   Well, I hope you had a little luck. Welcome back. Are you going to Keeneland daily during the meet?

ruffianruns

  Still praying? Or are you waiting til after the 2nd? Have fun !!!!!!!!

splits of 12

   Jaycito is number one on my list. He was on my list before DM Futurity so I was anxious to see him run. I really like his pedigree and running style, and Mitchell can get him there with a little luck. Make that a lot of luck. From what I've seen of I Want Revenge, I think he should be retired. He can't run like he used to. His stride is not looking good. He'll do well in stud, at least initailly because of Derby fever simply because he was the Derby ML favorite. He might do better than if he had actually run !!!!

27 Sep 2010 12:32 AM
Billy's Empire

Makfi got whipped in QEII. Rip Lost by a nose, looks like Goldi should win 3 in a row. First Dude, just finds a way to get ITM, never wins....

27 Sep 2010 8:51 AM
Householder

Blind Luck certainly is interesting over the Hollywood Park course.  She won the Hollywood Starlet at 1 1/16 by 7 lengths in 141.96.  Hollendorfer usually places his horses where they are competitive.  But, Blind Luck has also lost over this course.  He couldn't beat big Z with Hysterical Lady at even money.  I doubt he takes out the big mare with this 3 year old.  If he goes into the Lady's Secret he is using it as a prep for the Lady's Classic and not a win.

27 Sep 2010 1:27 PM
jayjay

Looking forward to seeing Frankel in the Juvenile Turf!

28 Sep 2010 3:46 AM
the_wiz

Where in Vegas can I get some odds on draynay not picking a winner that's not an odds on favorite the rest of the year? I realize I could only get 1/20 at best but hey where else can you get a guranteed return of 5% on your investment today?

28 Sep 2010 8:15 AM
The Rock

Don't you think Jackson was a little premature with the retirement? Isn't it safe to say that there was little communication between the owner/trainer here? Why would Asmussen work her if this guy was just going to retire her? Why risk it? I hope jackson's mating her to Curlin produces a dud. Bench her after the Breeders Cup.

28 Sep 2010 5:44 PM
Aluminaut

Welcome back Jason.

It Ain't Easy--Go to your room.

28 Sep 2010 6:17 PM
Tiznowbaby

I have the same questions, Rock?

Why fire a bullet and then retire? Very odd. I would have liked to have seen the Beldame (who also did things no 3YO has ever done) and then make a decision after that. Obviously, though, they didn't think she was rounding into form, so best wishes Rachel for a long, happy life.

28 Sep 2010 6:43 PM
Householder

Blind Luck is at Philly Park not Hollywood Park!  Looks like she scared everyone away as well.  Should be a good set up for the Breeder's Cup.  There was no reason to bring her back to synthetics in California and face Zenyatta. With RA out of the Breeder's Cup picture she has the next best race over the Churchill Downs course at 1 1/8th.  The logical favorite.  

28 Sep 2010 7:06 PM
Mike Relva

COLDFACTS

Really? You probably said the same thing last year about her prior to the Breeders. Lol I'm betting Jason and giving him the rest of the field,so yes I feel good about her winning!

28 Sep 2010 7:30 PM
Daunice

Coldfacts - the facts - Cigar did not lose the BCC to Skippy (Jockey Club Gold Cup), he lost to Alphabet Soup 1996 at Woodbine.

Skippy ran a (then) BBC record time winning at Hollywood Park 1997.

I saw both races.

Rock - I too thought it was very odd Rachel was retired right after she works a bullet.

28 Sep 2010 7:51 PM
Footlick

Also rans in the QE2 have done very well in the BC Mile.  QE2 is more like a 9 furlong race because of the last 4 furlongs or so being uphill.  Very few winners have gone on to BC Mile success. Many Brit handicappers thought that Makfi wouldn't like Ascot.  Let's see how he comes out of it and then go from there instead of just writing him off.

28 Sep 2010 8:00 PM
The Rock

I agree Footlick. I wouldn't get off of Makfi just yet. He's run 2 bad races at Ascot. He obviously does not like the course. Its tough to ignore that race against Goldikova with a little give in the ground. If the skies open up BC day, Makfi would be a great play at a generous price. I'm sure the Euro punters will lower the odds on him considerably compared to the North American pools. Just a little rain the day before please horse gods.....a good surface will do. Dry main track. lol.

Daunice/Tiznowbaby,

We all know how Jess Jackson rolls. Keeps things close to the vest. There may be more behind the scenes then what he's letting on. And you know if there is he's placed the gag order on Asmussen. This guy finally gets a Breeders Cup on dirt and he doesn't want to run the best horse he owns on it. He's impossible to please.

28 Sep 2010 8:42 PM
sodapopkid

SODA POP...HOW WOULD u LIKE your CROW COOKED???...

Re:  What crow?   Where do you see I am eating crow?   Let me get a little liqour in me and you can begin to show me what you are talking about.

29 Sep 2010 7:07 AM
Mike Relva

THE_WIZ

Hey,how's it going? Just be thankful Draynay has went into exile for awhile. I know I am.

29 Sep 2010 8:47 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

sodapopkid

  I saw on Jockeys where Kayla Stra rode you to her first victory at SA. Woohoo.

29 Sep 2010 9:53 PM
Coldfacts

Trebloc

I have the pedigrees of the winners of Kentucky Derby for the last six decades on a spreadsheet. During this period no broodmare has produced two winners of the great race.  I have not done any extensive research on the decades prior to those in my spreadsheet but subject to correction, I do not believe this event occurred during this period either. In light of the non occurrence, Brethren has a huge historic hurdle to clear. You anticipate that Supercharger will be the broodmare that foals two derby winner and you also expect them to be back to back winners. The historic occurrence that you are predicting appears unrealistic with the cold facts presented.

The great sprinter Usain Bolt normally states that anything is possible. Consequently, you should not be discouraged by the historic facts above. Broodmare Ormonda, produced two Kentucky Derby starters. Osmand was second by a head in Whiskery's and Brevity lost by the same margin to Bold Venture. Never Knock produced two Kentucky Derby starters. Go For Gin won and Pleasant Tap was third. Weekend Surprise produced Belmont winner A. P. Indy who many thought would have won the derby if not scratched due to injury. She also produced Summer Squall who finished second in the KD.  What you are asking of Brethren might just be the impossible.

Mike Relva

Certain races have weird histories. The 2010 BCC has a horse that is a beast and he is 4YO. This age group accounts for the most victories. Why would I favor The Zen mare who fall into an age group that has never won the race. One what appears to be her preferred surface she defeated a pair of turf horses making their synthetic surface debut. She will now be running against the dream of the crop on their preferred surface. It’s time to face the cold facts.

Daunice

You are correct. I focused on the wrong line on my spreadsheet. Many thank for highlighting this.

-Keelerman

Curlinello was featured by Steve in a recent post. Derby wise he has way too many negatives. Rarely does a stallion produce back to back champions. Smart Strike sired the 2009 champion 2YO Lookin At Lucky. He is unlikely to be the stallion that produces the big one in 2010. His dam was sired by Pleasant Colony a KD winner. KD winner’s have extremely poor records as broodmare sires of classic winners.  In spite of all the historic negatives I like the colt for one reason. His dam is inbred to siblings. Her pedigree reflects Misty Morn and Misty Flight both produced from Princequillo/Gery Flight. Misty Morn was the dam of Sunrise Flight the broodmare sire of Pleasant Colony. Misty Flight was dame sire of Flight Dancer who produced Minstrella (Champion 2yo Filly in Ireland) Horses with this pedigree feature I always place an asterisk against them. The pedigrees of broodmares that have produced several exceptional champions reflect sibling inbreeding i.e., Big Brown, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Ferdinand etc.

29 Sep 2010 11:44 PM
Mike Relva

COLDFACT

Right. Let's here your theory after the Classic. lol

30 Sep 2010 10:32 AM
SPLITS OF 12

Here are my picks for this weeks final prep races before the Breeders Cup at Churchill Downs.

Vosburgh- Latigo Shore: strictly a hunch play.

Flower Bowl- Keertana: She looks awfully tough in this one.

Hirsh Turf Classic- Telling: See this horse leading every step of the way.

Jockey Gold Cup- Mythical Power: Runs the race of his life. Blame finishes strong for second, and Fly Down closes well, for third.

Norfolk- Jaycito: love his breeding and style. He keeps charging hard. Watch this horse break his maiden in the G1. Norfolk.

Lady's Secret: Rinterval: I think Zenyatta is vunerable. This horse ran a game 2nd last time out to Zenyatta, and lost on the final few jumps. She may just have enough this time, to outlast the Queen.  

Yellow Ribbon- Restless Soul: Chalk up a G1 for Pat V, as he gears up for a return to the Downs. Lilly Fa Pootz is another game filly, who should be right in the mix.

Goodwood-  Twirling Candy: There's no early speed to challenge this beast. He's an emerging superstar, and should leave this field in the dust. Best Bet!  

01 Oct 2010 5:17 PM
Ranagulzion

COLDFACTS,

It is too early to be tutoring Trebloc in Triple crown pedigree statistics.  Save those lessons for the late Winter/early Spring "semester" (LOL).

watch out for the "Return of the King" in November, compliments of the quality gentlemen Messrs Todd P, Johnny V and Ed Evans.  Do you remember that 1980's hit by McFadden & Whitehead "Aint no stopping us now" ...check it out Bro ...that QR's Breeder's Cup Classic rhythm.

01 Oct 2010 10:26 PM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

I suggest you read my comments to Trebloc again. There is no pedigree information specified. I merely highlighted the fact that based on my records no broodmare has produced two KD winners. Based on Trebloc prediction, Super Charges will be the first and will also produce back to back winners. Based on historic data this it is unlikely to occur.

As for Quality Road, he has too many negatives. Some I have specified above and the major one that I have no mentioned is associated with the trend of Mr. P’s horses after big performances. Quality Road recorded two NTR as Saratoga and Gulfstream. He recorded an exceptionally fast time winning the Met mile. Subsequent to those performances he set what could only be considered pedestrian fractions in the Whitney and could not repel the challenge of Blame. He recorded a time of 1:50 in the Woodward under a strong ride. He is clearly no longer the horse that ran 1:47.49 for 9F. He is clearly following the trend of Todd P., trained horses.

Lawyer Ron set a NTR of 1:46.64 in Whitney H. In his subsequent race he was fully extended in a lost to Curlin in the JCGC. Thereafter he was not the same horse. Sound familiar, QA was fully extended in his lost to Blame. He came back and ran 1:50 for 9F. Conclusion: he is going backwards. Do some research on horses like Flower Alley, Proud Accolade, Any Given Saturday and many others after extremely big performances? He is heading in a direction similar to many before him.

Make some cash off the Blame and Tranquil Manner Ext. Put Tranquil Manner on top as he has been begging for 10F. Save the proceeds and place on him in the BCC.

02 Oct 2010 1:57 AM
Coldfacts

Jason,

I just watched your handicapping show featuring the JCGC and the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational. I am in agreement with Tranquil Manner with Blame. Tranquil Manner is the only horse in the field bred to easily get 12. His sire A. P. Indy and dame sire both won the Belmont. It can be said TM has a double dose of Belmont. He shows a pair of 47 works on the Godolphin training track. Those types of work are rare for him suggesting he is much improved. Let me remind you three of A.P. Indy’s sons have won the JCGC in the last nine years and the 2009 winner Summer Bird was also sired by a Belmont winner.

Paddy will not finish ahead of Never On Sunday. Neither you nor your co-hosts even mentioned this horse. The Turf course should be good at best and

such courses normally suit Europeans. Exclude from your exotics at your peril.

In the Norfolk I really like Riveting Reason purely on the historic success of his cross. He is bred along the same cross as 1998 & 2004 Kentucky Derby/Preakness winners Smarty Jones and the recently diseased Real Quiet.  Smarty Jones and Real Quiet were both sired by Grandsons of Mr. Prospector (Elusive Quality/Quite American) Their broodmares were sired by (Smile/ Believe It) both sons of In Reality. Riveting Reason was sire by a son of the Mr. Prospector (Fusaichi Pegasus) and his dame was sires by Known Fact possibly the most accomplished son of In Reality. He won the 2000 Guineas (GB-G1), Middle Park S. (GB-G1), Queen Elizabeth II and was Champion 3yo colt in England. Riveting Reason’s trainer probably created history when Street Hero won the 2008 Norfolk as a maiden. This trainer is back again with a colt that has a proven classic pedigree and I will be taking my chances.

02 Oct 2010 10:20 AM
Trebloc

Coldhardfacts,

Thank you for information.  Did you happen to see who fired a 5 furlong bullet yesterday at Belmont?  Let's face it Brethren's pedigree is on fire.  Did you see that Supercharger's full brother Girolamo won Saturday's Grade 1 Vosburgh.  Distorted Humor already bred a derby winner, Supercharger already bred a derby winner, Brethren great connections, firing bullets, what's not to like?  

04 Oct 2010 7:34 AM
Trebloc

I mean, Distorted Humor already sired a Derby winner.  My bad.

04 Oct 2010 7:35 AM

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