A Gold Mine in the Mile?

Of the 14 Breeders' Cup races, the biggest favorite is likely to be in the Mile, where Goldikova goes for her unprecedented third consecutive victory on the Churchill Downs turf. The 5-year-old mare tuned up for her title defense with an impressive half-length victory over soft turf in the Prix de la Foret on Oct. 3, proving she has not lost a step.

When she won at Santa Anita a year ago, Goldokiva was the 7-5 favorite. She is likely to be every bit of that, or lower, this time around, and deservedly so. Currently, she is listed at about 6-5 in the British books. She is also likely to be a single on many pick 4 and pick 6 tickets. In my opinion, only Midday in the BC Filly & Mare Turf could be a bigger favorite than Goldikova at Churchill, and that's because the field is not shaping up to be that strong.

There is no denying Goldikova's brilliance. She is an 11-time group/grade I winner, has earned more than $5 million, and has beaten the world's top milers everywhere Freddie Head has taken her--France, England, and the United States. While defeating males here is major news, with Goldikova it's the norm. Simply put, she is one of the best we've ever seen.

That being said, and don't kill me for saying this, I think she could be a bit of an underlay on Nov. 6.

This past weekend at Keeneland, we saw two major American threats win impressively. Gio Ponti's one-length win in the Shadwell Turf Mile might as well been a four-length score. He was that good. Meanwhile, Proviso quietly won her fourth consecutive grade I race in the First Lady. She fires every time.

Gio Ponti and Proviso are just two of the contenders in what is shaping up to be a fantastic BC Mile field. Allow me to run down some of the top threats to Goldikova. I'll begin with the Gio and Proviso, who ironically, are both still on the fence for the race. In parenthesis are the approximate odds of each from the British books.

Gio Ponti (7-1): Far be it from me to question one of the top trainers in the world, but what else did Christophe Clement need to see for him to commit to the Mile? I just can't see any way they will race Gio in the Classic, in what would be his first start on dirt in his final race. He was terrific in the Shadwell Turf Mile, and is much more suited at that distance at this point in his career, in my opinion, than 1 1/4 miles. Don't forget, he has won four of five lifetime starts at one mile, including three on turf. If he goes in the BC, he has a great chance.

Proviso (10-1): She earned a berth to the BC Filly & Mare Turf with her latest win, but the Mile looks like a more attractive option for the 5-year-old mare. She has never gone 1 3/8 miles and has won her last three at one mile--all in grade I company. What race would you put her in? If she does go in the Mile she will be tough. She just keeps coming at the end and seems to have a nose for the wire.

Paco Boy (7-1): With Poet's Voice no longer pointing to the Mile, he could be the second choice. In his last three efforts against Goldikova, this is what he has done: Lost by a half-length, finished a neck back in third, and was beaten a neck for the win. With any luck at all, he can turn the tables at a nice price.

Rip Van Winkle (6-1): As far as I know, Aidan O'Brien is still deciding between the Classic and the Mile for this one, but he is another I have to believe is better suited for a mile. He lost by a nose to Poet's Voice last out and has never run on dirt. He was also 10th in last year's Classic. If he goes in the mile, he'll bring with him two group I victories at the distance.

Sidney's Candy (12-1): His pending sale cost him a chance to run in the Oak Tree Mile. Sadler said he is still pointing toward the BC Mile, but you wouldn't think missing his prep would help him.

Court Vision (14-1): Was beaten a little over a length by Goldikova last year. His Woodbine Mile victory proved he is ready for a big effort. And he runs well fresh.

Others worth mentioning but still considered longshots are Liberian Freighter, Courageous Cat, General Quarters, Fuisse, Get Serious, and Wasted Tears. I haven't heard what the plan is for Able One.

Goldikova certainly deserves to be favored, but if the Mile field comes together like I think it might, she may be worth trying to beat.

 

119 Comments

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Householder

The jockey never moved on Gio Ponte!  He just toyed with that field.  He looked like a Ferarri among VWs.  The main threat to Goldi's 3-peat.

I would assume your refering to the Liberian Freighter who just took the Oak Tree Mile in 133.24. Have not seen his Beyer yet.  And no it was not over "astro-turf."  

And who knows how fast Sidney's Candy is?  He's all over the course ducking and weaving like a prize fighter.

Shaping up to be a very interesting race.

12 Oct 2010 2:12 PM
The Rock

Liberian Freighter, not worth mentioning. Cal Cup Mile is his next target. And he would have as much chance as Rick's Natural Star did in the 96' Turf if he entered this race.

12 Oct 2010 2:26 PM
The Bid

Proviso at the wire

12 Oct 2010 2:40 PM
Draynay

Without a doubt the greatest mare I have ever seen.

12 Oct 2010 2:44 PM
The Rock

Projected Odds in BC Mile IMO & Running Styles (S-Speed, OP-Off the Pace, MP-Mid Pack C-Closer):

Goldikova (6-5): OP/MP

Gio Ponti (9-2): MP/C

Proviso (11-1): C

Paco Boy (7-2): MP

Rip Van Winkle (6-1): OP/MP

Starspangledbanner (16-1): S/OP

Sidney's Candy (13-1): S

Court Vision (8-1): C

Courageous Cat(16-1): OP

General Quarters(25-1):OP/MP

Fuisse (24-1):.?

Wasted Tears (28-1): S

Able One (22-1):>?

Should be a good enough pace up front. Goldikova has won with all types of styles and from the far outside post just as she did last year. I see her laying 6th or 7th early and making her bid. I agree Jason, she will be an underlay. A definite must use, but will be using others in my pick's plays. Throwing out Sidney's Candy (Layoff, contested pace), Wasted Tears (Same as SC), General Quarters (Layoff, Class) & Starspangledbanner (Sprinter) automatically.

12 Oct 2010 2:49 PM
Smoking Baby

 I tend to agree with The Rock.  Forget the nice time at Hollywood.  Liberian Freighter would be overmatched in the Mile. Cal Cup's a much better fit.

12 Oct 2010 3:33 PM
optimistic

I dont see Get Serious on your list. Is he not being pointed for the BC Mile?

12 Oct 2010 3:40 PM
The Rock

Its not just my opinion that I think Liberian Freighter doesn't belong, but also that the connections of the top two in the Oak Tree Mile have already stated that they're pointing for the Cal Cup Mile regardless. Which in this case pretty much throws out the Oak Tree Mile altogether. Sidney's Candy & Victor's Cry were really the only one's with any type of chance of participating in the BC Mile and having a realistic shot. But with Victor's Cry's poor performance despite the blistering pace & Sidney's Candy's scratch, the race is a throw out.

12 Oct 2010 4:02 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Gio Ponti is the one to beat. He is a super miler. Look at his losses, he's only lost because he's gotten caught at a longer distance, including last year's Classic.

12 Oct 2010 4:05 PM
Jason Shandler

I added Get Serious and removed Starspangledbanner from the list. It doesnt look like O'Brien will send the latter.

12 Oct 2010 4:49 PM
Ted from LA

Wasted Tears will win or Paula Higgins will not post on here until January 1, 2011.  That's how sure I am.

12 Oct 2010 4:51 PM
In aint easy being good!

What about twirling candy does where is he going to go that horse is a freak and needs some seasoning!

12 Oct 2010 5:31 PM
Householder

I thought Wasted Tears folded pretty bad last time out.  And Lilly Fa Pootz nearly beat her at Del Mar only later to finish last in her next start...granted it was 1 1/4 or about 1/4 longer than she likes.  I'm not feeling it.  Tall tall order for the mare.  The Usual QT has racked up just as many grass wins...not sure where he is headed.  

12 Oct 2010 5:58 PM
Zookeeper

If anybody beats Goldikova to the wire, I hope it's Gio Ponti. I like him a lot and if not for the mare attempting a 3peat, I would definitely be rooting for him. If I bet the race, these two will be on top of any exotic.

12 Oct 2010 5:59 PM
Andrew

The Usual Q.T. another likely for the mile.

Gio Ponti has done everything he can on turf to increase his stud fee so I would be shocked if he doesn't wind up in the classic.  Which, is not to say it's his best race.  I personally still think he would have the best chance at winning in the turf classic.

12 Oct 2010 6:06 PM
Gin

Proviso ran a faster mile on Saturday against more horses than Gio Ponti.

Goldikova and Proviso exacta.

12 Oct 2010 6:20 PM
2:24

It's going to be hard to beat Goldikova.  I have a lot of respect for Gio Ponti (he was my pick in last year's classic) and I like him best at this distance.  Still, hard not to think Goldi goes out with style.

12 Oct 2010 6:23 PM
TJ

The projected field is

Goldikova

Court Vision

Paco Boy

Sidney's Candy

RVW

Fuisse

Gio Ponti (Turf or Classic?)

Proviso

Get Serious

Courageous Cat

The Usual QT

Wasted Tears

Possible Horses

Enriched

Able One

General Quarters

Canford Cliffs

Liberian Freighter

12 Oct 2010 6:49 PM
LYPSO

USA/CANADA preps in 2010 simply wont hold up come BC. The EURO's are tooo SHARP..Look for your mile winner exiting the Champion Stakes.

12 Oct 2010 7:24 PM
Freetex

I agree with you Jason.  Gio belongs in the mile and he will be serious.  The Shadwell Mile looked like just a breeze for him.  It was just so easy.

I also like Proviso. She and Gio will step up mightily against Goldikova, but its hard to visualize a win against a living legend.  This will be a tough one that's for sure.

12 Oct 2010 7:26 PM
josh

I heard that Canford Cliffs is a go, also Poet's Voice. Gio Ponti looks very strong I think his race was a very good PREP and was not forced to peak right now. I think he was a tired horse earlier this year but now with some time off and a cut back in distance he looks better. Proviso was impressive enough to garner a lot of attention since her race was 1/5 faster than gio ponti. But I am looking at the euros for this race I love goldikova but I think this year is the hardest race she is going to be in. Coupled with 3 years of racing might catch up to her. So from a bettors stand point I am looking for a price, but from a fan's perspective I would love to see her win.

12 Oct 2010 7:40 PM
Robin from Maryland

It'll be a great race.  But in the end there can be only one - Goldikova.  Gio Ponti 2nd.  

12 Oct 2010 8:12 PM
Jason Shandler

Josh: Poet's Voice is not going to the BC.

12 Oct 2010 8:13 PM
Footlick

My dark horse might just end up being Rip.  The QE2 was a good race for him and his people have always considered him a versatile miler.  I think he can step up as long as he feels good.  It will be hard to see past Goldokova as she always runs her race.  Gio's win was termed cozy in the Racing Post and watching it it seems appropriate.  He could have gone faster and won by more if they wanted or needed him to do so.  Proviso could come from the clouds and surprise.  The Usual QT can mile.  Courageous Cat and Court Vision are very solid.  And prep or not, if somebody doesn't go with Sidney's Candy he will be dangerous.  Even Fuisse is dangerous on his best.  You can actually make a case for too many horses on this list.  It will be a very tough race to handicap, probably the toughest on the card.

12 Oct 2010 8:30 PM
Tiznowbaby

Goldi has a devastating turn of foot, is ferocious to the wire, and has been pointing to this all along.

12 Oct 2010 8:50 PM
Paula Higgins

Great blog Jason. Goldikova deserves a blog all her own if anyone does. Ted from LA, Wasted Tears??? Looks like I will be posting for awhile LOL. O.k, I am with those that thing Gio Ponti is a serious threat to Goldi. I was really impressed with his recent race. Not too shabby at all. I have always liked him and especially  his gutsy run against Zenyatta in the BCC last year. However, Goldikova is an Amazon and I still think she wins. I would love to see the two girls clean up. Proviso is interesting but I don't see her beating either horse.

12 Oct 2010 8:56 PM
The Rock

Completely forgot about The Usual QT. I can'T see him going off no lower than 8-1. Probably get 12-1 on the M/L with him. Canford Cliffs as well. He'll be a medium price. 8-1 sounds about right.

12 Oct 2010 9:17 PM
The Rock

I always thought that Gio Ponti's best race was in the Kilroe when he flew late to nip Ventura at the wire. His turn of foot was explosive as he came from 3rd to last with traffic and wide in that race. Explosive kick at the Mile distance. Here's the race. I still can't believe he caught Ventura. Had a heavy exacta the other way.

www.youtube.com/watch

12 Oct 2010 9:26 PM
The Rock

Cheeky indeed. Canford Cliffs handled Rip Van Winkle very nicely in the Sussex stakes here at Goodwood. Explosive kick when he comes off cover. Watching these replays are going to be a big help when figuring out these Euro's. And this one will be an overlay given the time off he's had. I'm sure he got a weight break from RVW. Just don't know how much.

www.youtube.com/watch

12 Oct 2010 9:33 PM
TradingPlaces

There is one thing Gio has yet to do on turf and that is win a BC race over the turf. Other than that he's won just about everything a turf horse can win. Plus male turf horse is up in the air right now, a win in the Mile after a dominant win in the Shadwell Mile, plus a repeat score in the Man o War could give him a second eclipse as leading male turf horse, if Paddy doesn't hold off the Euros in the BC Turf.

Golid won't be easy to bring down though, she's at her best for this and is such a versitle runner in terms of where she can be placed in the field. I wanted to see Ventura vs Goldi last year and thought Ventura would've given her a run for her money. Gio is probably even better than Ventura, so Gio vs Goldi at a mile should be one heck of a race.

12 Oct 2010 9:47 PM
The Rock

Just got my 5th horse to throw out. Rip Van Winkle. Its too bad for him they don't have a 10 furlong race on turf in the BC. He just gets outfooted at this trip against the best in Europe. Having said that, I think O'Brien will point him to the Classic. Remember he had an excuse last year as he was battling a foot issue days before the race which explained his poor performance. Nonetheless, I wouldn't play him in the Classic either.

12 Oct 2010 9:55 PM
John T

Canford Cliffs won,t be running in this race as he stands to win a

huge fortune in a mile race next month in Japan in bonus money connected to the Group 1 races he has won in England this year.His stablemate Paco Boy has been very close in 3 races this year with Goldikova and a lot will have to do

with the post positions.I must confess I was impressed with Gio

Ponti,s win at a mile,throw in a few others and it looks like a good horse race.

12 Oct 2010 10:14 PM
Ranagulzion

'Goldi' is the star attraction but at the end of the day the star performer will undoubtedly be Sidney's Candy. Provided that he reports to the starting gates in good nick, I predict right now that he'll wire the field and be one of the outstanding stars of the show.  This is a very good colt.  Subject to pre-race workouts etc. I also fancy Court Vision to make the frame in the mix with Goldikova and the consistent Gio Ponti.

12 Oct 2010 10:39 PM
Shiznik

I love me some Goldikova, just like the rest, however, if Sid gets ignored on the lead he will be a monster too pass. And I am in the camp that says a mile is Gio's best distance. Not too mention if Paco Boy gets a bit of racing luck. No single here, guys and gals.  Well, maybe on one ticket or two, lol. Great Race!

12 Oct 2010 11:00 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

The Usual QT gets the lead, then Gio Ponti catches him. Goldikova is blocked and comes in third. The rest are toast. Gio Ponti's turn of foot is better than anyone's at a mile. He'll nail this one. It would be quite silly to run in The Classic at this point. Run a turf horse on dirt when he is the probable winner in The Turf Mile. I don't think so.

12 Oct 2010 11:08 PM
The Rock

Just saw some videos of this French horse Fuisse (FR). He beat Paco Boy & Rio De La Plata a short while ago. Seems to prefer the off going, but looks like an exciting prospect. If it rains he could be worth a play at a big price.

Also, just read that Frankel & Dream Ahead will face off in the Dewhurst for juvenile supremacy on Saturday. Shaping up to be an exciting race.

12 Oct 2010 11:17 PM
The Rock

I agree that Sidney's Candy would be the speed of the speed but believe that is not what Sadler wants to do. Something is up with these West Coast trainers now that they refuse to be on the lead since synthetic was installed. Look at JP's Gusto or Twirling Candy's race. The jock's fight with these horses early and try to turn it into a sprint for home instead of going out early and getting a breather midway while keeping a clear lead and then sprinting for home. The same way as they do on turf. The way the race is shaping up, he should have the pace his own way. But coming off of one turf race against very modest 3 year old company stepping up in class on the turf against (older horses first time)a field like this without a prep is just too much to ask for. And if he does go slow up front, believe me, Goldikova will be right on his butt waiting to pounce.

That was a hell of a time to have a pending sale come out the wood work. If it falls through, I would be a very upset owner and look for compensation since I wasn't able to prep my horse for a 2 million dollar race. And if i was going to purchase the horse to run in the BC, I would've preferred to have prepped him in the Oak Tree Mile.

12 Oct 2010 11:28 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

The Rock

   A lot of good posts. That bummed me out when Sidney's Candy didn't run. Very strange circumstances and timing. I felt he needed that race but maybe he can be trained up to it. If he's in, you don't have to worry about a slow pace, especially after a layoff I would think. It should be a done deal by now. I mean how long does it take to sell a horse? You hand over the cash, take your saddle off, put their's on, and ride off into the sunset or Kentucky. If Sid is in he's probably first, second or last.

13 Oct 2010 12:00 AM
Coldfacts

“Sadler said he is still pointing toward the BC Mile, but you wouldn't think missing his prep would help him”

Why do you think missing a prep will adversely impact this brilliantly fast colt? Invasor missed his targeted prep for the BCC and won. Da Hoss had one start in 12 Months and won his BC race. I think running badly in prep should be more of a concern than missing one. The lists of possible starters that you have highlighted do not have the cruising speed to put pressure on this colt on the front end. The mile will be transformed into a sprint from the gates open as all riders will be aware that if SC is allowed to sets moderate fractions the chances of catching him will be very remote. His sire ran a mile in a WR 1:31 flat. I believe this colt is capable of emulating this feat.

Goldikova will not win the BCT Mile. She will be attempting a third consecutive victory against what is shaping up to be one of the strongest field in the last three years. In 2008 as a 3YO she defeated the 5YO Kip Deville whose only graded victory in 2008 came in the (G1) Maker's Mark Mile. Her 2009 victory saw her catching the unheralded 3YO colt Courageous Cat in deep stretch. His claim to fame was a victory in the (G2) National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes.  Does anyone rank Courageous Cat in the same class as those you cited from the British books? If the horse she defeated in 2009 is used to measure her prospect of repeating, then the likely result shouldn’t be difficult to determine. She is now 5YO and will be running against exceptionally talented 3YO males. She will suffer the same fate that awaits the 6YO Zenyatta.

Who can defeat this brilliant mare? The candy man can.

13 Oct 2010 12:50 AM
Bellwether

GIO PONTI COULD RUN ON I95...ty...

13 Oct 2010 1:37 AM
jayjay

I'll have to wait until they draw the post positions before picking my horses since that affects the horse's style of running a lot.  SC might be the speed of the speed but if he's way outside, he'll use up a lot just to get in front.  The same goes for the OPs and MPs (using The Rock's terms), if they get outside post, I'll throw them out.  The Closers are the only ones you can pick without knowing the post, because it doesn't matter.  Depending on their draws, I'm looking at tri box with Proviso, GQ, Court Vision and Goldi.  I think Goldi is beatable in this race, just a hunch.

13 Oct 2010 4:49 AM
Slew

While I really want to see Goldikova do a three-peat, this may be the deepest field going.  I like Gio Ponti too.  Jason, is Debussy coming?  And who will William Buick ride?  Loved the Arlington Million ride, even though I was pulling for Gio. Buick is turning into an outstanding young jockey.  Paco Boy and Goldie will, no doubt, be awesome, but will Dick Turpin come?  He's such a fine looking horse.

13 Oct 2010 8:26 AM
Billy's Empire

How many turf races has Sidney's Candy won again? 1? If not for the drought in KY for the last 70 days, making the turf course firm, he would not have a shot in this race. Goldi, Gio, Proviso, Paco Boy 1,2,3,4.

13 Oct 2010 8:44 AM
Smoking Baby

Without a doubt the greatest mare I have ever seen.

Draynay 12 Oct 2010 2:44 PM

 Goldikova really is something special.  I love that her trainer rode Miesque and thinks Goldikova is even better.  That speaks volumes to me.  Not trying to pick an argument here...I humbly ask your opinion (I really do want to know)about Zarkava.  As good as Goldikova is, Zarkava seemed to have her number.  Might she possibly have caught Goldikova before she really blossomed or might she be even a little better?  Your thoughts?

13 Oct 2010 9:42 AM
Pedigree Ann

Is Dick Turpin coming? They tried him at 10f and he didn't do it. And he was a close third to Goldie and Paco Boy at Longchamp Arc weekend over 1400m (7f). Dickie is always underestimated because he has a 'plebeian' pedigree but he's a player.

13 Oct 2010 10:26 AM
pNewmarket

Richard Hannon has said he will only send two horses to Breeders' Cup - Paco Boy for the Mile and Tale Untold, a 2yo filly who will run in the Juvenile Fillies Turf and will remain in the US having been bought by Marc Keller over the summer.

Canford Cliffs is likely to head to the Far East and remains in training as a 4yo.

Dick Turpin also remains in training at 4 but no plans have been made for another run this year.

Don't forget it is VERY expensive for the Euros to ship to the US and some owners don't want to spend that kind of money when they can run in Dubai/The Far East for free!

13 Oct 2010 11:09 AM
Johnny Flash

Zenyatta is without a doubt the greatest mare I have ever seen.

Draynay 12 Oct 2010 2:44 PM

Finally he makes some sense!!

13 Oct 2010 11:12 AM
The Rock

Coldfacts,

The two horses you mentioned that were runner ups to Goldikova were the prior years' BC Mile winner and a very good horse in Courageous Cat whose been plagued by injuries. What makes you think that being 5 years old that she would regress? The field that you've deemed the toughest competition she will ever face in the BC (which I agree), she's beaten all of her Euro competition easily. And what about the rest of the horses that she defeated in the prior years? Look up their form coming in to those races.

Also, Da Hoss had a prep prior to his 08' run. He didn't just run off the bench after 2 years. I can see in some cases where it might work. Like sprint distances. Even at one mile. But if you're not at least battle test on the surface against older horses for the first time, it can be a tall order. IMO.

13 Oct 2010 11:25 AM
Billy's Empire

Just think about GET STORMY. Same thing happens with Candy! Press the pace, tire, fifth place

13 Oct 2010 11:26 AM
Footlick

Smoking Baby- my opinion is that Zarkava could have dropped down to a mile anytime they wanted and beaten Goldikova.  I know people are upset that she didn't run longer, but she was something that doesn't come along that often.  As good as Goldikova is, I believe Zarkava was better.

13 Oct 2010 11:36 AM
Draynay

Zenyatta will never be seen as a true champion like Goldikova.  Let me know when Zenyatta beats any males on dirt or turf.

13 Oct 2010 12:29 PM
Smoking Baby

 Footlick...I tend to agree.  Thank you for that.  Goldikova's amazing accomplishments make me wonder how good Zarkava must've been.  I'm thinking possibly that when Draynay said best "Mare" he had ever seen he was taking into account that these losses to Zarkava happened when Goldikova was a "filly."  It's probably splitting hairs but I do think that as a three year old filly Zarkava was certainly better.  I was just curious what others thought.  Thanks again.

13 Oct 2010 12:30 PM
Barb Dwyer

I think the Mile is going to be the best BC race this year.  You can make a case for at least 6 of the potential starters you listed  but I really hope Goldi takes it.  That said, I wouldn't single this race.  

13 Oct 2010 12:33 PM
The Rock

Don't the new conditions of the "Win & You're In" races next year include the payment for all travel arrangements and entry fee's into the BC races?

13 Oct 2010 12:39 PM
The Rock

Uh oh, Dray is on the Goldikova bandwagon now.....

Coldfacts, I take everything I said back.

13 Oct 2010 12:54 PM
-Keelerman

Footlick & Lazmannick;

Thank you for your opinions on Sceptre; I enjoyed them greatly.

-Keelerman

13 Oct 2010 1:15 PM
Monty

Zenyatta just "wins", hello Goldikova has been beaten before by Euros in her own backyard, the queen is "undefeated",19-0, you can't top those stats! I like Gio Ponti's chances vs. Goldikova, and I hope he races on the turf? He'll give Goldikova all he can handle. GO GIO PONTI !!!

13 Oct 2010 1:47 PM
LAZMANNICK

The Rock

I hope that Draynay doesn't go All - All - All in his tri bet in the Classic.  Then nobody'll win the race.

13 Oct 2010 2:24 PM
arlington fan

Go, go, go Goldikova!

13 Oct 2010 2:27 PM
The Rock

Seriously Laz, the epitome of the term "kiss of death"

13 Oct 2010 2:40 PM
The Rock

General Quarters out with rapped tendon.

13 Oct 2010 2:41 PM
Footlick

Keelerman- wish I could have told you more.

13 Oct 2010 3:09 PM
Carlos in Cali

The Euro's will dominate all of the Turf races in the BC,only Gio & SC have a slight chance for an ITM placing.

Billy... do you argue with yourself when looking in the mirror? I'm just asking.

The Rock... no more Red Bulls for you,buddy. Tweekers suck & so do the SF Giants & their fans.  :}   Ask Coldfacts..ahem! how accurate his/her "theories" have been the last couple of years.

What?.. the NHL season has begun?...ZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

13 Oct 2010 3:47 PM
sodapopkid

OH Goodness,  Goldikova might as well stay at home, She won't win the BC mile now,  Draynay has picked her.  She is dooooomed!!!!!!

Thank Goodness he doesnt' like Zenyatta, She will have the racing gods on her side.  

Apparently, the racing gods dont like Draynay,  he has pissed them off to many times.  Every horse he picks.  loses......

I believe in the "Draynay Spell" lol..

13 Oct 2010 5:23 PM
The Rock

Oh Los,

Sweet sounds of a bitter Dodgers fan I see. =P Still going through the withdrawls of the McCourt divorce eh?....tisk tisk tisk. But can you blame them? I'd fight over not wanting to own the Dodger organization myself. I'm sure at heart you're a bandwagon LA Kings fan as well like the rest of your vatos out there.

13 Oct 2010 5:24 PM
SPLITS OF 12

All eyes will be on Goldokiva in the BC Mile, to see if she can three-peat. My guess is there are a handful of horses who can beat her on the Churchill Turf. I think it's a course she will struggle over. There's not enough room to tell you why, I think this. But here are some of the horses who I do feel have a legitimate shot at beating Goldi. First would be Canford Cliffs, this dude gobbles up ground in the stretch faster than any of these. Paco Boy, Court Vision, Gio Ponti, and Provisio, all represent the same horse to me, a chance at a price. With the right trip anyone of those could get it done. So my longshot darkhorse would have to be General Quarters. He just loves the CD Downs Strip and won the Woodford Reserve earlier in the year on Derby Day. The mile is shaping up into a nice race. I do hope Sidneys Candy makes the race, so there will be a fast pace up front for the closers to slingshot into. If Canford Cliffs and Paco Boy make the race there's your exacta boxed. If not look for General Quarters to shock the world!

13 Oct 2010 5:30 PM
Shiznik

I said it once and I will say it again. I love me some Goldikova, but she was no Zarkava and it wasn't because Goldikova hadn't come into her own.

Zarkava was a pure freak in the best way.  I don't care how few races she ran, most of them were truly brilliant and the Arc was a true piece of equine art.

Having said all that, I will always believe that no European filly or mare could compare to the brilliance and greatness of Pebbles on her best day and theirs.

I don't compare Euro turfers with American dirt horses.  Two different games.

Zenyatta is Zenyatta and no one currently compares to her.  She will win the Classic (barring injury)and the only one in the race that can beat her at Churchill at 1 1/4 is Looking At Lucky, period.  He will need his best and she will need to have trouble, but it is possible.  Blame, Quality Road, Haynesfield, have hardly a chance to win and I wouldn't necessarily put them ahead of First Dude or Richard's Kid in this race at this distance at this track.

Forget about who ran the best campaign and how lite Zenyatta's was.  So what?  Ask yourself who is the best horse?  Regardless of campaign. Use your eyes and ask yourselves who is the best horse.  

Ask yourselves privately if no money was to be bet, but instead, the bet was your life if you are wrong.  

Who ya gonna bet now!

13 Oct 2010 6:18 PM
stevebiscuit

How many grade 1 males has Goldikova beaten on dirt Draynay? I thought that was your criteria for a great horse? Or is it only when you're talking about Zenyatta?

13 Oct 2010 6:46 PM
Shiznik

Musket Man in the Classic.  Laugh it up, but he always runs in the money, no matter the competition.  The competition has been stiff for this lil grinder and he just finds away to get paid, everytime.

All I am saying is save room at the bottom of those tris and last two lines of the super for a horse that stands to be 15/1 or better and is always itm.

13 Oct 2010 7:00 PM
John T

It has been like a dream come true

for Richard Hannon this season having 3 superb milers,Canford Cliffs,Dick Turpin,and Paco Boy.The

first two named will be back next year but for Paco Boy the Breeders Cup Mile will be his last race.His trainer seems to think the tighter

turns of an North American track

will suit him but he does acknowledge he still has to beat Goldikova this year.Paco Boy has been very consistant at the top level of racing at one mile and i,m sure a finish in the first three to end his career would make all concerned very happy.

13 Oct 2010 8:54 PM
LAZMANNICK

Carlos in Cali

I'ts too bad hockey puts you to sleep.  I hear that there's a paint drying contest tomorrow, maybe that will wake you up.  Did I say paint drying?  I meant a Lakers game.

13 Oct 2010 9:16 PM
draynay

Who me?  I like Zenyatta I just don't wear blinders thinking she can some how run 10 lengths faster on dirt and match up with the best males on dirt.  She can barely beat average horses on plastic.

13 Oct 2010 9:18 PM
Mike Relva

SODAPOPKID

That's what I always say,as long as DRAYNAY stays off Zenyatta, we're fine.

13 Oct 2010 9:46 PM
Livesoutwest

Shiznik, I agree with you.  With the right trip combined with a bad trip from Zenyatta and Lookin At Lucky, Musket Man is capable of springing a giant upset.  I thought he would go in the Dirt Mile, but now that he's going here, I can't leave him off my ticket.

I think the closest thing to a sure winner in this year's BC is Life At Ten in the Ladies Classic.  And the bet I like the best is the Ladies Classic/Classic daily double.  I plan to play it like so:

$20 Life At Ten/Quality Road

$20 Life At Ten/Haynesfield

$20 Life At Ten/Lookin At Lucky

$20 Life At Ten/Musket Man

and

$100 Life At Ten/Zenyatta

13 Oct 2010 10:31 PM
Mike Relva

LAZ

BTW I liked the shot you took @ the Lakers. Thanks,what did you hear about RA after the Woodward?

13 Oct 2010 10:37 PM
LAZMANNICK

Mike Relva

I hear through the grapevine that Rachel (through a translater) asked JJ never to take her to a Lakers game.  A Kings game yeah, but not the Lakers.

13 Oct 2010 11:01 PM
Shiznik

I see great minds think alike.  Haskin wrote an article about Musket Man in the Classic.  It sounded like something I might have wrote.  Oh yea, I did, about a half hour earlier on this blog.  

Just kidding, Haskin is mucho cool and I ain't no Haskin, as Jason might tell me.

Either way, I think we both maybe onto something. Great BC card setup this year if it goes as planned. Many competitive races.

13 Oct 2010 11:20 PM
GunBow

The Oak Tree Mile and Shadwell Mile are excellent examples of how Beyer speed figures often miss the mark when it comes to turf(and synthetic) races.

For winning the Shadwell Mile, Gio Ponti earned a 99.  For winning the Oak Tree Mile, Liberian Freighter earned a 102.  Does anyone buy that Liberian Frieghter ran the superior race? I would guess not.

Liberian Freighter's higher Beyer figure was simply the result of the quicker early pace of the Oak Tree Mile.  Since the early pace of the Shadwell was slow and Gio was running from off the pace, it was basically impossible for him to run a huge figure in the race(he would have need a 10 second final eighth).  The fact Gio was able to close into such a relatively slow pace and win with ease makes the figure largely irrelevant; I'm sure had Gio been in the Oak Tree Mile, with its faster pace, he would have run something higher than a 102.

The above is related to what Zenyatta fans have been arguing for years; her Beyers are not necessarily reflective of her performances.  As a closer racing over surfaces that typically produce slow early splits, it has been almost impossible for Zenyatta to run big figures in most of her races.  Thus, one simply cannot look at her Beyers and be certain that they represent the fastest Zenyatta can run.  Truth is, it's hard to know exactly how fast Zenyatta can run.  What we do know is that when she has been given a decent pace to run into(09' BC Classic the most notable), she has shown the ability to run faster final times(and receive higher Beyers).

Back to the Mile.  Obviously, Goldi deserves to be a heavy favorite.  I also think Paco Boy is a legit threat.  Of the Americans, I like Gio, Court Vision, and The Usual QT.  I'm not sold on Sidney's Candy.  Sidney has shown he can run well when everything goes his way and is facing questionable competition, but I have doubts about his ability to overcome adversity.  I would have loved to see him in the Oak Tree Mile because he would have faced strong early challenges from some veteran older horses(who while not Gio are certainly better than Macias).  And what will happen to Sidney if the Churchill turf is a bog on BC day?

13 Oct 2010 11:40 PM
Bet Twice

The Rock,

No one in LA goes to Kings games.  Actually, a few people do - they're all fans of the opposing team.  Last time I checked, the Staples Center wasn't built in Chavez ravine.  The boys from EP or East Los like the Dodgers, maybe The Raiders once upon a time, but the Kings?  No one likes the Kings.

Laz,

JJ would take RA to see the uhhhhhhh (mind drawing a blank - light bulb) Sharks?  Aren't they in the NHL?  Nor Cal vs. So Cal.  Isn't that what started this whole thing?

13 Oct 2010 11:50 PM
LAZMANNICK

Bet Twice

I would like to have a dollar for every fan that showed up at the Blackhawks Stanley Cup victory parade.  If I did I'd be worth about two million bucks right now.  BTW, after Christmas if the Kings are a cup threat the Staple Center will sell out every night.

14 Oct 2010 12:18 AM
Livesoutwest

Ah, jealousy rears its ugly head again.  Lazmannick and Mike R, you guys wish you had a two-time defending champion to root for in whatever cities you're from!

14 Oct 2010 12:18 AM
David

Does anyone else think that Jess Jackson is buying Sidney's Candy?  Maybe to race in the Classic?

14 Oct 2010 12:23 AM
Footlick

Stacelita out.  They are planning to run her in Hong Kong instead.  Maybe connections will sent Lily of the Valley, winner of the Opera.  Plumania is being talked about as a candidate for either the BC Turf or the BC FM Turf.

14 Oct 2010 12:28 AM
JerseyBoy

Gunbow:

Here is the Timeform ranking of older horses in America as 8-22-10.

This is professional stuff as opposed to the witch's brew:

OLDER HORSES

131 QUALITY ROAD

131 ZENYATTA

130 GIO PONTI

130 RACHEL ALEXANDRA

126 BLAME

126 KINSALE KING

125 THE USUAL Q T

124 PRESIOUS PASSION

124 RAIL TRIP

123 BOB BLACK JACK

123 TELLING

14 Oct 2010 7:51 AM
Giddyup

Wasted Tears has won something like 8 of her last 10 and will be a longshot. That gives you an idea of the quality of the field in this race. I think Goldi has a date with destiny and just can't be denied but she will get a great test.

14 Oct 2010 8:34 AM
Footlick

Canford Cliffs not going to BC or Japan.  Some bloggers on Racing Post said this would happen.  Some have thought he would be retired.  Hasn't happened yet.  Connections said he will run net year.  Snow Fairy out of Champions and going to run in Japan for a huge purse.  

14 Oct 2010 9:00 AM
The Rock

Bet Twice,

The people I was referring to were a couple of buddies of mine who are Dodger fans who jump on the Kings bandwagon halfway through the season when they're in playoff contention and give me flack saying that the Kings will trump the Sharks that year. It's not even a fair arguement when they pull off crap like that. lol.

Hey does anyone know if TVG or Xpressbet will be taking plays on the Champions Day races on Saturday or where I can stream these races live?

14 Oct 2010 9:42 AM
LAZMANNICK

Livesoutwest

Ha Ha.....in about 24 days we'll have our two time champion.

14 Oct 2010 11:23 AM
joeywoge

If Gio Ponti's connection's decide to go in the Mile you need look no further for the winner. Dominguez didn't move on him in the Shadwell. What will happen when he asks him for run??  Are you kidding me.

14 Oct 2010 12:36 PM
TJ

Canford Cliffs is either going to BC or Japan. I read an article that said someone wanted to retire him,another wanted him to go to Japan and another connection wanted him to the BC. Needless to say he will be running somewhere in November just no clue where yet

14 Oct 2010 12:51 PM
TJ

NEVERMIND about Canford Cliffs-Footlick is right. Canford Cliffs is done for the year

14 Oct 2010 1:03 PM
Carlos in Cali

Footlick,or anyone... any info regarding Stevie Wonderboy's half sister(by Bernardini)Theysken's Theory possibly running in the BCJF Turf/Dirt?.

I liked Prince Will I Am's score in the Jamaica. He flew home against a slow pace on soft ground and has definitely found his niche racing on turf. Sure,he didn't beat much and will be facing way better while picking-up weight if he goes in the BC Turf.But,I think I'll use him in my Tix.He's won @ 11f so 12f should not be a problem and he can handle soft ground too.Interesting.

The Rock,.. Wrong!Wrong!Wrong!

Lazmannick/Mike R,.. 5 Championship rings in the last 10yrs. while going for their 2nd 3-peat = Dominance. You know,jealousy causes heartburn & stress,so be careful.

14 Oct 2010 1:38 PM
Livesoutwest

Lazmannick,

Are you referring to Zenyatta?  I'm rooting for her to finally become the champion.  Once again the HOY winner IS the champion, whether certain myopic fans on this list like it or not.  If the BC Classic determined the champion we could visit the Hall of Fame and look at those plaques on the wall of "champions" Arcangues and Volponi, though we've had this discussion ad nauseum.

Secondly, what's this "WE'LL have our champion" stuff?  Last time I checked, Zenyatta was from Los Angeles, city of champions, just like the Lakers, Carlos in Cali and yours truly.  Don't try to gravy-train on LA's champions, LOL!

14 Oct 2010 2:50 PM
Mike Relva

LIVESOUTHWEST/ CARLOS

Here's a shock since you two are so brilliant,I'M NOT A BASKETBALL FAN,PERIOD! So that shoots down your "jealous theory". I could care less.

14 Oct 2010 3:32 PM
Footlick

Carlos in Cali- I haven't heard if there are any plans for her to ship

14 Oct 2010 4:21 PM
predict

The price of "Gold" has never been higher, this is where to put your money, "Candy" is sweet, but only sets this up for the best investment.

14 Oct 2010 4:45 PM
The Rock

If Prince Will I Am hits the board in the Turf, I'll turn in to a Dodger's fan.

On a seperate note, its good to see the best 3 year old turf fillies hitting it off in a G1 race. That's how it supposed to be. In fact, the 3 year old fillies have been doing it right this year instead of avoiding each other. It'd be nice if they traveled west though...

14 Oct 2010 4:52 PM
Shiznik

Looking forward too the pick 4's and 3's (mostly 4's) at the BC.

There stands too be a lot of short priced favorites in the last one leading too the classic. You figure Workforce will be no better than 2/1 if he shows and that is probably too high. Goldikova will be 7/5 at best and Zenyatta will be 2/1 or less. That leaves the sprint and that one may not have a favorite less than 7/2.

Surely one of the favorites will hit and possibly two but I doubt three.  With all the singles that will be spreadout between the three horses I named (assuming they show) there will be BIG opportunities.

This will be a perfect opportunity to use multiple tickets on the pik 4 (instead of a caveman).  If you can beat any of the three (considering you will at least get a decent price in the sprint), you will get a decent pay. Two out of the three beaten and a winning ticket or two could be special. Of course, a bonanza awaits if you can beat all three (which I will try at least once or twice, especially with the 50 cent option).

Plus, you have great options to back up your bigger pik 4's with either 50 cent pick 4's or 50 cent pik 3's.  Can you freakin' believe they have 50 cent pik 3's (not too mention 10 cent supers and 50 cent tri's and dollar doubles)?  Best day of the year with the best wagering menu at a BC ever!

Longshot lovers dream.

I know there will be 50 cent pik 3's paying a thousand or more on more than a couple of sequences (I just do, that's how).

I CAN'T FREAKING WAIT!

Sorry for the rant but I did manage too mention Goldikova in the mile (topic), lol.

14 Oct 2010 4:53 PM
The Rock

Wow, Kathmanblu was very impressive in the Jessamine. Wide trip and a huge spurt turning for home. Very similar run as Winter Memories. Definite threat to the later if entered in the Juvy Fillies Turf.

14 Oct 2010 6:27 PM
John

Livesoutwest,

Speak for yourself, please. I come from New York but live in Seattle now and I am proud to cheer Zenyatta on. She is America's Queen.

14 Oct 2010 7:17 PM
tizzy

city of champions??    in one sport  maybe-----but z's races almost all in la area---so shes the la champ-----if she wins the bcc then and only then will she be considered the hoy-----if she had only come to the spa she would have gotten more respect----but beating up on inferior competition race after race----just think about it-----------goldi--paco--gio---what a trifecta of grass specialists----best mile ever!!

14 Oct 2010 9:33 PM
LAZMANNICK

Livesoutwest

I'm referring to the Breeders Cup champion, not the HOY.  Sorry, but too much emphasis has been placed on HOY and I am losing interest.  It is kind of like Nascar.  What is most important to the fans, the winner of the Daytiona 500 or the points champion?  I'll take the Daytona 500.

14 Oct 2010 9:38 PM
LAZMANNICK

This might turn out to be the deepest BC Mile ever if all the stars show up.  However, IMO the best BC Mile winner was Lure, a back to back winner ridden each time by Mike Smith and who fired off 112 Beyers in each race.  Unlike Goldi and Miesque who came from behind, Lure did all the work and virtually lead both races througout, winning them by three and 2 1/4.  

14 Oct 2010 10:15 PM
Barb Dwyer

To The Rock:  HRTV will be televising Champions Day live starting at 9:30 a.m. this Saturday.  

You can get the live stream at hrtv.com if you don't have HRTV on your dish/cable, but there's a subscription fee.   Subscription rates are here:  www.hrtvlive.com/.../registerform

You can bet the Newmarket races at Xpressbet. But Xpressbet does NOT offer audio/video of the Newmarket races, so you can only place bets there with no streaming.

As far as I know TVG will not air Champions Day, at least not live.

14 Oct 2010 11:08 PM
draynay

timeform ranking Zenyatta with Quality Road is a complete joke.  Zenyatta hasn't beat a single male on dirt in her life and never will.

14 Oct 2010 11:53 PM
Billy's Empire

Rock, Kathmanblu looked great coming down the lane. I told the BLOG LORD Jason last week to watch out for this filly in whatever her next race would be b/c she was going to win, and that she had been working her male counterpart 2 yo's off of their feet. Next stop, Nov 5th Churchill downs to take on the Euro's

15 Oct 2010 9:14 AM
Billy's Empire

P val has 4 mounts for the Breeders Cup. Nice to see him on the comeback trail and finally being able to race in KY again.

15 Oct 2010 12:15 PM
Jim C.

Sidney's Candy at 12-1?  When can I sign up?

15 Oct 2010 8:25 PM
Livesoutwest

Right on Jim C.  The rest of the milers better bring their running shoes if they want to catch Sidney's Candy.  And with all due respect Goldikova, that includes YOU.

15 Oct 2010 9:15 PM
Livesoutwest

LA sure is the City of Champions, Tizzy.  In addition to our 11-time NBA champion Los Angeles Lakers, there's also our 11-time men's basketball NCAA champion UCLA Bruins and our 11-time football champion USC Trojans.  (Anyone noticing a trend there?) Not to mention our 5-time World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers.  Don't forget 10-time world champion boxer Oscar De La Hoya.  And we're the home of Horseracing World Champions like Sunday Silence, Point Given, Ferdinand, John Henry, Swaps and two-time BC Classic winner Tiznow.  

To those who say that winning the recognized world championship in their sport doesn't mean anything, my reply is to ask five-time NBA champion Laker Kobe Bryant what winning championships mean.  He'll tell you it's the only thing that matters.  That's why he spent last summer learning post moves from Hakeem Olajuwon, while pretenders to his throne were lounging on South Beach or shooting music videos.

When Zenyatta hopefully wins her world championship and brings it home with her, she'll be in good company here in Los Angeles - the Company of Champions.  

15 Oct 2010 9:32 PM
LAZMANNICK

draynay

Most of the horses ranked on the Time Form rating haven't beaten a single male on dirt in their lives either.  What's your point?

15 Oct 2010 11:50 PM
LAZMANNICK

Livesoutwest

Ya but can Kobe shoot a puck?

15 Oct 2010 11:52 PM
Draynay

Anyone who places Zenyatta up there with Goldikova and Quality Road is helpless

16 Oct 2010 8:07 PM
jimthepimp

Draynay we are suppose to be talking about the turf mile here. After watching Gio Ponti last race I was thinking this horse is so much better than the ones she ran against. She just kind of waited and then ran up past them. She could of beat them at any time. It was the most impressive prep race that I saw. It had nothing to do with the margin but the way she ran by them easily. Gio will be on my win ticket list for this race. This race should be a good one to watch.

19 Oct 2010 8:59 PM
Draynay

Goldie is the best mare in the world.  Every penny you bet against her is a complete waste.

20 Oct 2010 3:53 PM
Monty

Take the "value" and go with Gio Ponti across the board, unless you want a foreigner winning our B.C. races. If Gio is right, he has the best chance of beating Goldikova. GO Gio Ponti !!!

20 Oct 2010 4:29 PM
tcc

Jason:

KNOWN HORSES WHOSE CONNECTIONS INTEND TO RUN

MILE

The 27th running of the Grade I, $2 million TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile for 3-year-olds and up at one mile over the Matt Winn Turf Course on Saturday, Nov. 6 (Race 8, 4:40 p.m. ET, start of the $1.5 million guaranteed Pick 4, TV: ESPN):

Courageous Cat (Bill Mott)

Court Vision (Rick Dutrow Jr.)

Delegator-GB (Saeed bin Suroor)

Get Stormy (Tom Bush)

Goldikova-IRE (Freddie Head)

Paco Boy-IRE (Richard Hannon)

Proviso-GB (Bill Mott)

Sidney’s Candy (John Sadler).

Known horses whose connections may be giving the Mile some consideration: Beethoven-IRE, Enriched, Gio Ponti (or Classic), Grand Rapport, Society’s Chairman, Starspangledbanner-AUS, Victor’s Cry and Yankee Fourtune (or Commonwealth Turf).

21 Oct 2010 10:57 PM
Monty

If GOLDIKOVA is so great, and superior to Zenyatta NOT, why is'nt she running in the biggest race of them all, the " $5 MILLION DOLLAR CLASSIC ? She is a grass horse specialist is'nt she, so how can you say she is better than Zenyatta, when her record shows she's lost 20% of her races abroad ???  GO ZENYATTA, UNDEFEATED !!!

27 Oct 2010 2:56 PM
lexi

It Goldikova's world, we all just live in it.....

03 Nov 2010 11:23 AM

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