An Attractive Whitney Weekend

I'm a little late getting to this today and it's already Friday afternoon, so let's get right into a few of the major weekend stakes.

Whitney Handicap

As I said of That Handicapping Show, the handicap division has been much-maligned this year with good reason, but the lack of a discernable standout makes this an especially good betting race. I don't think morning-line choice Flat Out will go off as the favorite, nor do I think my choice, Morning Line, will be anywhere near 10-1. From what I've seen there are a lot of people that like Tizway and because of the Pletcher/Castellano factor Mission Impazible will be bet hard, so they could wind up as the favorites.

I like Morning Line for a few reasons. He hasn't run nine furlongs this year but distance should not be an issue, as he has won at the distance twice and was second two other times. One of the wins was last year at Saratoga when he trounced older horses by 11 lengths. He has also run second at Saratoga, so we know he likes the track. Morning Line should be forwardly placed under John Velazquez and therefore should receive a good trip in a race that has a few horses that like to run up front but aren't necessarily speed burners. He is fresh and has been working well for Nick Zito, who has won this race twice with Commentator.

I would be surprised if Mission Impazible didn't run well too. If you toss the Alysheba, he has been very consistent this year and is a head and neck short of three graded stakes, which, had he won either would make him the heavy choice in here. He is 2-1-0 from three starts at the distance, will also be up on the pace, and has the leading jockey/trainer in his corner. I'll take that.

I'll also use Apart, who seems to always be good for a piece, Rail Trip, who makes his third start for Rick Dutrow and could be the controlling speed, and my hunch play is Headache, a winner at Saratoga and with two wins at the distance.

West Virginia Derby

You would have to think Prayer for Relief will go off as the heavy choice, maybe even as low as even money. Baffert won this race last year and at the moment, it seems like he wins everything he enters in. Prayer for Relief beat a good Iowa Derby field handily and has won three of his last four overall. He will be right on the pace under Rafael Bejarano and should be right in the thick of things the whole way. The only question mark is the distance, but I don't see how I can leave him out of the mix altogether.

I also like the two horses coming out of the Barbaro Stakes July 9---Awesome Bet and Rush Now. Awesome Bet came from the clouds to run down J W Blue by a neck, which was his third in this year. His Bris Speed figure from that race is the best of anyone in the current field in their last start. Steve Asmussen has won this race three of the last six years.

My trifecta will be completed by Rush Now, who was fourth in the Barbaro, which is his only time off the board since February. He romped in the Spend a Buck Stakes at Monmouth two starts back when going wire-to-wire and could get the lead in here. His breeding suggests that he should have no problem going longer.

Quick picks

Vanderbilt: Noble's Promise, Apriority, Trappe Shot

Honorable Miss: Beat the Blues

Breeders' Stakes: Seawatch

Your thoughts?

76 Comments

Leave a Comment:

mz

Nothing really to say except I always liked Mission Impazible and Noble's Promise --especially since they sent the latter to Europe for racing.  Good Sports are his owners! (Yoda like I speak)

Also, I wanted to get in before Ted from LA/Bob from Boston just to bust his chops and break his streak of first poster.  Did I make it?  Only time will tell.

p.s.  Still looking forward to the Alabama to set if there will be another contender to HOY other than Blind Luck and Havre de Grace.  3 in a row for the Grrrls!

05 Aug 2011 6:00 PM
mz

P.P.S.  It's midnight where I am right now.  Does that count for anything in the first poster sweepstakes?

05 Aug 2011 6:02 PM
Alex'sBigFan

Everyone go Rush Now and place an Awesome Bet on Morning Line, then throw up a Prayer for Relief that Apart from what may be a Mission Impazible, he doesn't get a Headache or a bad Rail Trip in the

Whitney!  Go Morning Line.

Love the name Headache!  He must be a character and he's got those two  wins already, I'll go with him in the WVA Derby.

Happy weekend to all.

05 Aug 2011 6:02 PM
Bob from Boston

mz, I can live with you being first this time, but being first and second.  That's cow dung.  Now what am I going to do the rest of the weekend?  I usually go the bar and tell everyone how I was first to post even when I had nothing to say regarding Jason's musings.  Noble's Promise is the big play.  Have a good weekend mz and all you degenerates.

05 Aug 2011 8:06 PM
The Deacon

Hope Rail Trip runs a big one, restore a little respect for west coast racing even though Rail Trip has moved eastward.......

05 Aug 2011 8:26 PM
skyfire

I like horses that have shown they like Saratoga ala Stay Thirsty...gotta go with Morning Line, Rail Trip exacta.

Bob Baffert is unbelievable - best trainer around:  Prayer for Relief.

IMO  best horse racing this weekend:  Trappe Shot

05 Aug 2011 9:03 PM
Alex'sBigFan

Correction in last post, meant to say I'll go with Baffert's Prayer for Relief in WVA Derby.

Morning Line & Headache in Whitney.

Yes, agreed, Baffert is a veritable horse whisperer, one of the best trainers.

05 Aug 2011 10:05 PM
Draynay

What a bunch of garbage.  I simply can't believe a horse that runs a 113 Beyer in a hand ride gets no love for his next race ?  Based on the fractions run in his last race no horse is faster at 6 furlongs and a mile than FLAT OUT.  To ignore this horse is just plain crazy.  He is your winner ! Wake up.  He will move to the top of the list after this win.

05 Aug 2011 10:51 PM
Ranagulzion

Attracting a quality field that's as contenttious as this one for less than a million dollar purse must be a great score for the promoters.  There's no incentive for them to increase the purse although the prestige of this particular race is growing.

My assessment of the outcome of this contentious renewal is that it could yield a "Tiznow exacta" with Tizway leading home Morning Line.  

In terms of the possibility of an upset there are two horse that would not surprise me; Rodman and Duke of Mischief.  The former is as sound and fit as he's ever been and his last race is a throw out.  This horse is talented enough to stalk a brisk pace or uncork a big late run from way off the pace to win/go very close.  As for DoM, he's at the top of his game right now and his top-end speed can carry him to the head of affairs at the wire if jockey Joe Bravo times his run pefectly IMO.  

Friend or Foe could be the "fly in the ointment" as no one knows just how good he is yet.  He could really be the "big one" coming of age; this test will certainly tell us a lot about him.  Mission Impazile is becoming a Grade one bridesmaid that might end up as a "flower girl" in this super hot contest, and I think that Flat Out will bounce, coming off his big effort in the Suburban.  Rail Trip will get discouraged from tracking Tizway at a fast clip, Apart is a bit of an enigma (lay no "Blame" here) and those who go for "Headache" could wind up with some pain in the pocket instead.

This is THE race of the Summer, no doubt and Tizway is a veritable monster.  Have fun folks.      

05 Aug 2011 11:59 PM
LAZMANNICK

I'm looking for Rail Trip to lay down a big one in spite of the fact that Dutrow horses aren’t doing all that great lately (I wonder why).  Rail Trip has been working up a storm and hasn’t missed a weekly workout for at least the past 8 weeks.  He had five consecutive 6F works at Aqueduct including two in under 1.13, and his latest 4F breeze in 48 sets him up perfectly.  The distance should be right in his alley and I think that 9F is probably his best distance anyway.  He’s flying under the radar, has Ramon on board, has great stalking type abilities and just might be ready to fire.  His post shouldn’t hurt either as Ramon can place him pretty well where he wants.  One worry and that’s if they try to go to the front and wire the field like they did in the Easy Goer.  He has no chance in here if they do.

Is there any truth to the rumor that Headache’s nickname around the barn is Draynay?  

06 Aug 2011 12:06 AM
Dr Max

If the Saratoga track comes-up wet, then I anticipate seeing DUKE OF MISCHIEF (#11), with Bravo up, making a big, wide, sweeping run around the field in the WHITNEY on Saturday and charging to a victory over APART, RAIL TRIP, and FLAT OUT. If the track is fast and dry, then I still see him finishing ITM.

06 Aug 2011 12:30 AM
Tiznowbaby

I was going to say I liked Morning Line, Tizway and Flat Out, but obviously now Flat Out is cursed. Sigh.

Trappe Shot should come through in the Vanderbilt.

Curious to see what happens with Switch and Zazu

Mike Smith to beat Chantel.

06 Aug 2011 1:49 AM
JJW

Rail Trip-Mission Impazible exacta box

06 Aug 2011 2:19 AM
longwaytomay

Jason,

 I like your thought process on the Whitney. I am going to use Morning Line on top of Headache and Apart. I think Flat Out will be overbet in my opinion. He obviously loves Belmont but this is Saratoga. I like Trappe Shot to win the Vandy. Good luck to all who play today.

06 Aug 2011 10:28 AM
Draynay

Front running Rail Trip ?  Good luck with that Laz.  Come back and tell us what you did with all your win tickets on that horse.  I wouldn't bet Jason's money on Rail Trip.

06 Aug 2011 10:45 AM
Smoking Baby

 MZ...Kill me you do.

I'm thinking Morning Line/Tizway exacta box in thw Whitney.  Flat Out looks good but I'm not sure I'm buying that big speed figure for the Suburban.

Trappe Shot in the Vanderbilt.

Turbulent Descent BETTER beat that Test field.  I thought it would come up tougher.

The Clement Hirsch is the race I'm really looking forward to.  I can't decide so I'll watch as a fan.  Hoping Zazu beats the elders.

06 Aug 2011 10:52 AM
Linda in Texas

Well, the gifted one has spoken and is dissing anyone not calling Flat Out as a winner. The paddock with his losers is filling up so--

That said, I like Rail Trip, Headache and Impazible, in no special order. And DOM for some reason is tugging at my psyche.

Ava K in Race 9 at Saratoga, 20-1 as i write this. Hard as it is for me to not go for Her Smile as she has won previously and Bobby Flay is great for racing and his restaurants are superb.

And since Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico need rain, i will go for Prayer for Relief just because and i like Baffert. Reasoning?? There is none.

I just read Ranagulzion's post, hardly ever wrong. But i am not changing. I don't use the same factors in choosing, just intuition. That is why i don't bet.

Good Luck and safe trips to all.

Ted from LA/Bob from Boston, your record is not blemished, so don't drown in your suds at the bar!

The moderator can post anytime he wants to and still get top billing.

06 Aug 2011 11:11 AM
thomas

Whitney: rail trip and friend or foe i think they'll run 1-2 again.

Test: Pomeroys Pistol with johnny V looks tough to beat.

WVDerby: little drama is bred to go a little farther then his big brother. i think he gets up.

i'll take Hamazing destiny in the vanderbilt along with sean avery, exacta box.

honorable miss: champagne d'oro by 2

good luck everybody.

06 Aug 2011 12:49 PM
Mary Zinke

I switched my picks to this order: Flat Out, Tizway, Friend or Foe.  I wanted Flat Out to win, but had talked myself out of that decision. Then, just decided NO, I want him to win. And did he really have a 1:11 6f. gallop out after his 5f. work?  You better be right, Draynay, so I can keep stealing your picks.Where's Billy's Empire? He's right most of the time, too.

06 Aug 2011 12:49 PM
LAZMANNICK

Draynay "Headache"

My Rail Trip win tickets?  I'm hoping that I'll have to ask the mutual clerk who cashes them what he/she did with them.

06 Aug 2011 1:11 PM
trackjack

Thanks Jason, especially for the analysis on the WV Derby.

Whitney:

A well matched field that should produce good prices and tough to pick a winner  Will go for a 4 horse ex box:

 1. Flat Out

 3. Morning Line

 5. Tizway

 10. Apart

Test: Turbulent Descent to win

WV Derby:  Prayer for Relief

Vanderbilt: Agree with Jason, really like Noble's Promise to win.

Bob from Boston,

Don't sweat not being first out of the gate, just relax and come on a little later with your astute observations.  You're a winner in my book, besides what would you do if Ted from LA beat you to the punch?

06 Aug 2011 1:16 PM
Zarkava

Whitney: Mission Impazible, Morning Line, Tizway

Test: Turbulent Descent, Pomeroys Pistol, Her Smile

Vanderbilt: Trappe Shot, Noble´s Promise

Would be nice to see St. Trinians run big in the Clement Hirsch! =)

06 Aug 2011 1:59 PM
Carlos in Cali

I think the pace will be quicker than people think.Therefore I'll toss the ones who will be on or near the lead,like: MI,Rail Trip,ML and Tizway because 1)he's coming off a 9week lay off going 9f. 2)he only has 1 win(maiden breaker) going 2-turns.These factors do not bode well for the 1-turn specialist.

I'll use the mid-pack/closers who should benefit from the swift pace.

Apart) has never beaten this kind but is always in the mix,maybe this will the breakout race his connections have been waiting for.He might get a wide trip all the way around though. Flat Out) ran sneaky good in the Clark riding the rail throughout then blasted home last out in his best performance to date,is obviously improving and should get the same trip here but might regress a bit off that big win and gets the dead rail.Connections are high on him now that they have him correct,so he just might be too much for these now.

Giant Oak) I will use simply because of the pace scenario.He hasn't won in a awhile so maybe he's gone back to his looming-up and hanging ways.The pace should set-up his closing kick,but I'm not a fan of mistake prone Bridgmohan in big races like this.

Friend or Foe) has always shown a little class,but needs to step it up to win this.I think he has it in him and is another one who should get the right trip.

Rodman & Headache seem overmatched here while the tough vet Duke of Mischief is parked way outside.

I'll box Apart/Flat Out/Giant Oak/Friend or Foe in all exotics.

Now,if speed is holding then disregard EVERYTHING I just posted.

Turbulent Descent should out-class the field and dominate,followed home by Pomeroy's Pistol & Her Smile.

06 Aug 2011 1:59 PM
Stevebiscuit

I'll take Rail Trip at 12-1. The fact that Draynay doesn't like him makes me think I'm on to something! He couldn't win a place bet in a match race!

06 Aug 2011 4:11 PM
Mike Relva

Going with TD today for the homerun.

06 Aug 2011 4:58 PM
thomas

im going to make a ava k and pomeroy's pistol excata box. i would think avak would be 10-1 but gotta take a shot at 20-1.

06 Aug 2011 5:06 PM
Linda in Texas

Congratulations Turbulent Descent, that was beautiful. I should have known not to think against you. You are the real deal. And the whip was never shown, a simply lovely win to witness.

I don't know if Ava K is home yet!

But she tried. That is what counts.

As you know i am always cheering for the underdogs.

And Prayer For Relief, great for him at Mountaineer and he will be moving on up, no doubt. I really like him.

And Tiz Way now back to back wins. Very Nice Whitney Grade 1 at my favorite track. Good job Maragh.

I was in left field with my choices and i was wrong.

My favorite race to watch was Saratoga 8 with Trix in The City on turf, a 25 to 1 shot going wire to wire.

Thanks Jason. Hope your picks came in first.  

06 Aug 2011 6:06 PM
Carlos in Cali

Son-of-a-@#$%&!

Congrats to Tizway he's on top of his game right now.The slow pace and slow track helped his chances and he proved best. 2nd-3rd & 4th... thanks alot! Other than that,I had a very good day betting Saratoga.

Mary Zinke, I hope you ended up boxing your picks!

06 Aug 2011 6:12 PM
Draynay

Give Tizway credit he ran a huge race.  My boy Flat Out got me 6.10 in place money so I ended up pretty good.  Rail Trip is still running last I heard.

06 Aug 2011 7:10 PM
Ranagulzion

CARLOS my buddy!

LOL, you came in 2nd, 3rd and 4th in The Whitney?  Bridesmaid brother! ...anyway, good cal in the Test ...you son of a gun.

06 Aug 2011 7:31 PM
trackjack

RANAGULZION,

Good call and analysis on Tizway.  

Ravi gave him a perfect trip and kept him relaxed over the tiring track.  What happened to Morning Line?

Tizway and Flat Out; two horses coming off Grade I wins in New York with identical 113 Beyers, 10 points better than the next best previous Beyer and they run 1-2 for a $47.00 exacta....Who'd a thunk it?

06 Aug 2011 7:33 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Don't you find it awfully suspicious that the only person who seems to be in touch with Ted From LA is Bob From Boston? Personally I think that Bob had something to do with Ted's demise. There is a three dollar reward for information leading to the arrest and conviction of the person or persons responsible for the disappearance of Ted From LA who I found to be a very funny guy. I am not amused by Bob From Boston. It's just a personal taste thing but I just don't think he's that funny. Ted From LA on the other hand is quite hilarious. I do hope he's OK but I fear that Bob From Boston has committed a dastardly deed.

06 Aug 2011 8:21 PM
skyfire

Wow, Turbulent D shows just how good the best 3 yr old filly It's Tricky is!!  Great race--top sprinting filly!!!  

Baffert:  he's unbelievable --- not my personal favorite, Todd P is, but Baffert's horsemanship is unsurpassable.

Tizway,  finally an older horse puts two G1's together.  Slow race tho.  I hated when Rail Trip left Ron Ellis; I hope Ron gets him back.

Trappe Shot -- I think he will run huge.

06 Aug 2011 9:21 PM
LAZMANNICK

Yep and you're still looking for a horse to actually finish first in a race.

06 Aug 2011 10:07 PM
SACK THE SECRATARY

Well I guess this is a late post for the discussion thread.I think Tizway and Sadlers horse are the best older horses RIGHT NOW,proven up to 1 1/8.As far as the classic it is still a couple of months away and run at a specialized distance on the dirt of a mile and a quarter.

07 Aug 2011 9:15 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

More succinctly, I think Bob From Boston bumped him off, and his supposed friendship with Ted is a scam, a sham, wham bam thank you ham.

07 Aug 2011 10:26 AM
Paula Higgins

Dr Drunkinbum, Ted from LA has a Dissociative Disorder (think the movie SYBIL), which means that occasionally he is Bob from Boston. I find both equally funny. Typically with D.D. you have completely separate personalities/identities. Not so with Ted from LA, he has not lost his sense of humor. Dr Drunkinbum, think you have a west coast bias LOL!

On another note, Tizway was fantastic. Nice race. Good job Ranagulzion.

07 Aug 2011 2:04 PM
thomas

tizway going to the jcgc and flat out is looking at the iselin or woodward before the jcgc. the woodward looks to be a good race.

07 Aug 2011 2:20 PM
Mike from Michigan

In the Vanderbilt, I know Trappe Shot will be a huge favorite, but I really like Hamazing Destiny to score an upset win here.  He should go off at petty good odds too.

07 Aug 2011 4:35 PM
Mike Relva

Trappe Shot should win easily.

07 Aug 2011 5:47 PM
mz

I think Bob and Ted have ditched Carol and Alice and have run away together to Saratoga to play the ponies.  Eventually they will realize that the Fillies and Mares are golden this year (having seen all the nice things they have done here and in Europe this weekend) and they will come to their senses and go home (wherever that is when you are that bi-coastal) to their respective other.

Too bad about Canford Cliffs.  There was an article in the Guardian that he wasn't actually hurt but was heading in that possible direction so they stopped him before he hit that point.  They also reported that Frankel is ranked at 142 right now by Timeform re: Great Milers with Hawk Wing at 136 and at 133 Canford Cliffs, Goldikova, Falbrav, Grg Washington, RAven's Pass and Rock of Gib.  Giant's Causeway, Keltos and King's Best are at 132.

Couple of "wow" comments about that:  is Frankel really THAT good?

And this newspaper has a WHOLE PAGE of horse racing news, even though it is a regular news paper. nd not a specialty sports or other paper!

07 Aug 2011 6:35 PM
Smoking Baby

 So...The Vanderbilt is in the books.  Can we now stop ramming Noble's Promise down our throats as one of the country's best?  This is the third year I've had to read how good this horse is and he keeps getting outrun more often than not.

07 Aug 2011 8:12 PM
Ranagulzion

Linda, Paula and Trackjack,

Thanks for the acknowledgement.  Being on a roll in my handicapping in recent weeks certainly makes up for all the crow I've had to eat over Uncle Mo and Dialed In in the Triple Crown series.

Tizway is a beast.  Sidney's Candy is gonna have to strutt some stuff in the Woodward to be a worthy challenger.

07 Aug 2011 8:28 PM
LAZMANNICK

I’m not trying to take anything away from Tizway, but what’s happening in the industry?  Here’ a horse that couldn’t win off one start at two……broke his maiden in his fifth and final start at three and had to go to Woodbine and its Polytrak surface to do it……was way up the track in the Whitney to Bullsbay at four and later that fall wasn’t close to Summer Bird and Quality Road in the JCGC, at an age when he should have been in his prime…….was a non threatening third to Quality Road in the Met Mile at five and finished the year by being a fading fifth in the BC Mile………and now all of a sudden he is at the top of the handicap ranks at six.  I don’t want to rain on his parade, but where have all the stars gone?  He wasn’t good enough to do this against good horses at four and now, at six, he’s the boss.

07 Aug 2011 11:16 PM
GunBow

Some good juvenile performances at Del Mar Sunday.

Obviously, Creative Cause was the story going into the Best Pal, coming off a 98 Beyer debut with classic breeding(Giants Causeway out of gr.1 winning mare Dream of Summer).  Creative Cause did not disappoint, making a smooth 3-wide move to the lead in mid-stretch before going on to a comfortable 1.75 length victory.  It was all very easy for Creative Cause, as he received only a few left handed encouragements from Bejarano.  Majestic City has won 2 stakes, but Creative Cause has now jumped to the head of the Cali juvenile division.  And distance should be no concern given his breeding, quite unlike last year's Best Pal winner JP's Gusto.  The final time of 1:15 and 3 is solid, but the track was producing quick times all day; the Santa Anita winter meet shows that when a surface is really fast, it's hard for anyone to run a really big Beyer because to do so would require a horse to basically defy physics.

The runner-up, I'll Have Another, deserves mention.  I'll Have Another certainly benefited from an inside bias to make Creative Cause's final margin of victory closer than it probably deserved to be; speed horses on the inside, like I'll Have Another, were "sticking" to the rally-wide runners in the stretch.  But, I'll Have Enough did duel Brigand into the ground, beating him by almost 8 lengths, and he, like the winner, has breeding that suggests classic distances.  I'll Have Another is by Flower Alley out of an Arch mare.

While Baffert's Brigand and Night Tide failed again, he did unveil and impressive debut filly, Dreamcaster, in the 6th.  Dreamcaster's final time was just moderate, but she won by 2 easy lengths, and has "star" breeding.  Dreamcaster is by Bernardini out of a Dynaformer mare.

08 Aug 2011 4:14 AM
JerseyBoy

Running times for the last few 9 furlong races run over the dirt track at Saratoga:

2011:

Ask The Moon     1:50.46

Malibu Glow      1:50.18

Turbo Compressor 1:51.12

Rule             1:50.60

Tizway           1:52.43

2010:

Blame            1:48.88

Quality Road     1:50.0

2011:

Stay Thirsty     1:48.78

At weight for age, Stay Thirsty would have beaten them all quite easily. He is my Horse of the Year candidate.

08 Aug 2011 6:28 AM
Weekend

the times were terribly slow all day at the Spa, and the track favored horses on the front end. Turbulent Descent ran in 1:24. Tizway ran the third slowest time ever, after running the second fastest Met Mile ever 2 months prior. He still got a 108 Beyer, so rag on the time if you want, but all of the times were slow. Even the works are slow up there. Good horses are working in 52, 53 seconds at 4 furlongs.

Mary Z, thanks for the shout. I was on vacation sitting on a beach drinking Yuengling. We will get back to picking winners this week at Arlington and Saratoga.

08 Aug 2011 10:27 AM
Ranagulzion

Lazmannick,

Tizway has had soundness issues for most of his career.  Now that he's past those problems, being from the line of Cee's Tizzy he gets better with age (you might recall Tiznow's full brother Bud Royal).  He showed the potential as a younger horse but was having regular setbacks.  Now he's on top of his game and its gonna take a really smart one to lower his colours.

Jersey Boy,

Take it easy with your Stay Thirsty hype.  I expected you to be a bit more soffisticated in your running times analysis than you're showing us ...trying to convince the world that Stay Thirsty could have beaten Tizway and company in the Whitney etc etc.  What did you have for breakfast buddy? Baloney?

Stay Thirsty has come to hand at this stage of his 3YO career in keeping with his pedigree (Bernadini/ AP Indy). I remember very well that you were touting him and To Honour and Serve as potential Derby/Triple Crown series winners. We all know how that turned out. Now they both have legitimate shots at the Travers according to the TIME of their development, determined by genetics friend, not your running times analyses.  

Notwithstanding,Stay Thirsty was indeed impressive in the Jim Dandy.        

08 Aug 2011 12:00 PM
SACK THE SECRATARY

JB I read your post on the times for 1 1/8 races at Saratoga,and it justifies my belief that going by times is less logical than by lengths beaten or won by.Stay Thirsty is a late bloomer but there is NO WAY just because his time is a lot faster he would have beaten those horses.I think times and speed figures while useful(more valuable when less people have the same ones)are not very accurate, the track can change between races.Speed figures are more valuable,in finding over lays when only BEYER has them and not all the buyers of DRF.

08 Aug 2011 12:09 PM
Draynay

Tizway is a beast ?  He is 2 for 8 at 1 1/8th and he is a beast ?  The fact is the older division is as weak now as it was in 1973.

08 Aug 2011 12:12 PM
Stevebiscuit

JerseyBoy, you've got a lot to learn if your only way of measuring quality is the final times.

08 Aug 2011 1:04 PM
JorgeG

Nice picks Jason hahaha.

08 Aug 2011 2:39 PM
LAZMANNICK

JerseyBoy

The times at the Spa on Saturday are not indicative of the times these horses are capable of running and, in fact, should be considered an anomaly.  Tizway did not go from running a 1.32.90 mile in the Met Mile to a 1.53.43 9F (with a 1.39.32 mile time) because he couldn’t get the 9F in a sub 150 time.  The track was terrible, apparently sealed and back-raked and not watered.  Also, Flat Out just came off a 1.46.64 one-turn 9F win at Belmont.  I don’t think he receded by 6 seconds on Saturday. Tizway apparently will be awarded a 111 Beyer fro the race.

08 Aug 2011 3:12 PM
Householder

Smoking baby.  Smiling Tiger and Twirling Candy are better than Noble's Promise and have beaten him ON DIRT and the later is not even a sprinter.  

Watch for the 45-60 day rest on Smiling Tiger and then lights out for the Breeder's Cup Sprint.  

Monster performances off of rest.

Gunbow.  Creative Cause certainly runs like he wants more distance.  Is the best 2 year old on the west coast.

Jason has touted COIL and Baffert for months.  COIL throws the Swaps (even Sunday Silence lost this one) and then comes out and beats the Preakness and Belmont winner for his first out on dirt.  Give the man some respect for spotting the Mike Pegram/Baffert colt!  He is lightly raced and peaking at the right time OFF AN INJURY.

08 Aug 2011 3:44 PM
Smoking Baby

 Householder.  Yes...Kudos to Jason for spotting Coil's talent as early as he did.  And yes...Sunday Silence did lose the Swaps Stakes as did Seattle Slew so on that score Coil's in pretty good company.

08 Aug 2011 5:20 PM
Jason Shandler

Thanks Householder and Smoking Baby. Appreciate the shout out.

When I talked to Baffert at the Preakness you could tell he was sitting on a couple of big horses.

08 Aug 2011 6:19 PM
JerseyBoy

LAZMANNICK:

I agree the time for Tizway's race was unusually slow.(I have made money on Tizway, by the way).

What I was trying to show was that Stay Thirsty has run perhaps the fastest 9-furlong dirt race for about a year at Saratoga.

I think Tizway, Blame and Quality Road are outstanding horses. That is what makes Stay Thirsty so remarkable. Not only did he run  the fastest time of the three, he won by 4 lengths.

I have been saying since April that on his best day, Stay Thirsty can beat any 3yo in America. I hope I am right.

I was trying to highlight Stay Thirsty, not downplay any other horse.

08 Aug 2011 7:09 PM
Draynay

Gee, I don't hear anyone talking about Morning Line or Rail Trip anymore. Hmmm.

08 Aug 2011 7:18 PM
JerseyBoy

Stevebiscuit:

See my response to LAZMANNICK.

No one I know measures quality by relying on final times only.

To me, Stay Thirsty is reminiscent of the horse covered in this excerpt from chef-the-race.com:

It is an example of the state of my knowledge.

"Busted... was horse of the year in England (Timeform rated 134) and a winner of the Group 1 King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes (12f), the Coronation Stakes (12f), the Eclipse Stakes (10f), and the Prix Foy, as a four-year-old in 1967 - a season in which he was unbeaten. All the more remarkable an achievement when you consider that trainer Noel Murless bought him from Ireland, where he had achieved nothing special at three (it was reportedly the plan that he should be gelded and sent over jumps). Murless wanted him as a lead horse for his two-year-old Royal Palace, who had Classic pretensions for the following season (Royal Palace subsequently won the 2,000 Guineas and the Derby in 1967)"

08 Aug 2011 7:29 PM
markinsac

POLY WANTS A CRACKER! FLAT OUT IS A WINNER! POLY WANTS A CRACKER! MY PICKS ON THIS BLOG HAVE WON 46% OF THE TIME! POLY WANTS A CRACKER!

08 Aug 2011 8:27 PM
markinsac

POLY WANTS A CRACKER!  PRAYER FOR RELIEF WAS 2 FOR 5 ON CALIFORNIA'S FAKE POLYCRAP TRACKS, WINNING A MAIDEN AND AN ALLOWANCE.  HE SHIPS TO PRAIRIE MEADOWS *DIRT* AND WINS THE GRADE 3 IOWA DERBY.  THEN HE SHIPS TO MOUNTAINEER *DIRT* AND WINS THE GRADE 2 WEST VIRGINIA DERBY.  POLY WANTS A CRACKER.  THIS ONLY PROVES THAT ANY HORSE THAT RACES ON POLYWANTSACRACKERCRAP IS A COMPLETE PHONY.  COIL SUCKS TOO.  POLY WANTS A CRACKER!

08 Aug 2011 8:47 PM
JerseyBoy

RANAGULZION:

See my responses above.

Stay Thirsty ran his best race to date in the Gotham.

Let us talk after the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

I will not contrast him again to your Dialed In. He dialed out.

08 Aug 2011 10:21 PM
Ranagulzion

Draynay,

Tizway IS a Beast. He wasn't before this year because of unsoundness and perhaps maturity issues (being an offspring of Tiznow) but he is NOW the leading horse on the continent.  Horses improve, change and become transformed.  You are being disingenuous, trying to berate Tizway by calling us to go back more than three decades to 1973 to recall a weak crop of older horses.  What about 2009 when Bullsbay won the Whitney?  That was a weaker field (in which Tizway also ran) and a weaker crop of Older horses IMO.  I don't recall Bullsbay getting a 111 Beyer or any older horse winning consecutive Grade one races on dirt with Beyer figures greater than 108.  Do you?  Why then are you taking us back to 1973? Are you diverting again to pick on Secretariat for losing to Onion in the Whitney that year (totally irrelevant).  You were scolding everyone on the blog for slighting Flat Out and now that your pick has been put firmly in his place by a rampant Tizway you are attacking the older horse division in order to pull down the rising star.  Shame on you.  

A brief hiatus could serve you well ...like horses that have trained off and are over the top ...its been a while since you've spotted a winner ... therefore you should at least think about the break.    

08 Aug 2011 11:39 PM
Ranagulzion

Jersey Boy,

The Bernardinis are blooming now and although Stay Thirsty looks promising he may not be the best of the lot.  Did you see Bufum last weekend?  I'm anticipating a big splash from To Honour and Serve when he next appears and there is also Break Up The Game in the shadows.

For your information Dialed In is out for the rest of the year due to surgery.  At no time did Stay Thirsty appear to be his superior and was soundly beaten by him on both occassions that they met so lets keep the comparison honest.

I'll admit that ST is looking very good among the 3YOs at this point but its a bit of a stretch to see him coping with the likes of Tizway or his stable companions Sidney's Candy and Uncle Mo (on the comback trail).

08 Aug 2011 11:51 PM
LAZMANNICK

Draynay

Markinsac is calling you.

09 Aug 2011 12:49 AM
LAZMANNICK

RANAGULZION

Maybe Tizway had soundness issues early on in his career, but since 2009 he has been racing regularly.  The thing is, he is currently the top handicap horse on most poles.  So when you look at it overall, what does it tell you?  What it tells me is that since the advent of the Breeders Cup and the past 26 years or so of the so called improvement of the breed, we are probably going to see the weakest overall BCC ever and Tizway, if they decide that he can go 10F, is probably the current favorite to win it.

09 Aug 2011 1:03 AM
Alex'sBigFan

Yes, I pointed out Jason's keen eye blogs ago in picking out Coil for us to watch.  Very great, Jason.

Well Headache sure lived up to his name and gave me one!

Champagne D'Oro ran a game thrid on a track she didn't like, not bad.

There are two Mo's at the Spa now, Sheikh Mo and Uncle Mo!  Tizfunny, no?  C'mon you guys just trying to get a little smile on you amidst all your feudin'!!!

09 Aug 2011 1:22 AM
JerseyBoy

RANAGULZION:

You can be more sophisticated than this.

You did not ask, but here is a tip.

Highlight your proposed entry, then click on the right mouse button and select " Check Spelling". You would like the result.

(I assume you are using Windows).

09 Aug 2011 6:23 AM
Smoking Baby

 Did I say Tizway/Morning Line exacta box?  I should've said Tizway/Morning Line bookends.  These horses continue to make a dummy out of me.  But I LOVE it.  Yeah....Rail Trip ran bad again.  I've learned to ignore Dutrow who seems to always crow about how good his horses are doing.  I did think Morning Line would run better.  I'm thinkig he possibly didn't take to that funny Saratoga track last Saturday.  He'll have better days.  Not so sure about Rail Trip.

09 Aug 2011 7:49 AM
Mary Zinke

I'm sure a smart successful guy  can figure out that a horse that had its first 5 starts on syn. CA tracks would benefit in the WV Derby by having a win on dirt in the Ohio Derby.  Did you mistakenly think Dreamy Kid could get it done with only the so-so 2nd. place on the S.A. dirt back in January, markinsac? I would guess that a smart successful guy with a gorgeous wife would not be eating white-flour sodium-laden crackers. Such jealousy.  Ides of October babies rule! Dibs,'61.

Is Coil your Travers pick, mark?  Do you ever pick a horse BEFORE a race?  

09 Aug 2011 11:26 AM
2:24

Draynay:  the 1973 older male horse included Hall of Famer Riva Ridge, Hall of Famer Cougar II, Eclipse Winner Key to the Mint, Prove Out who ran a dirt time of 2:25 for 12 furlongs, Eclipse winner Kennedy Road, and graded stakes winner Onion.  Please don't make stupid statements.  It is below you.

09 Aug 2011 2:51 PM
Linda in Texas

I like the name Tizway and of course the horse of course. You can do soo much with his name. How about TIZTIME when he has his first foal,or TIZMYWAY, TIZMIZ,for his first filly, i will spend time thinking of more today, just cannot let this name game pass me by.- - - TizTizzy, TizMizFiz, or TizzyFizzy - - -. Or HizzyTizzy,

or HizTiz.

Sorry Jason, i just got carried away. I need a little frivolity to lighten up the news that has not been the best in the real world away from horse racing news lately. But that surprisingly, has been pretty good what with the prices at the sale and all. Some good looking offspring for sure.

Or how about TizHiz. I will stop.

09 Aug 2011 3:16 PM
Linda in Texas

P. S. How long are we going to wait before we put an All Points Bulletin out for Ted from LA or Bob from Boston, or even Alice from Dallas? :)

Dr. Drunkinbum, that should be your call. The last word he typed was "degenerates."  That didn't come out the way i meant. I meant that you are the one with the 3 dollar reward for information leading to---

09 Aug 2011 3:21 PM
Householder

2:24.  Cougar II and Kennedy Road 1-2 in the Santa Anita Big cap.  I think they were both trained by Charlie "The Bald Eagle" Whitingham.

Kennedy Road...perhaps the nay hates Canadian horses as well.

09 Aug 2011 7:18 PM
trackjack

2:24, Householder:

Good review of Draynay's "weak crop" of older horses of 1973.

Draynay:

Again, pull up the Marlboro Cup of 1973 and watch Secretariat demolish this "weak field" of older horses in world record time at 9F. To diminish this crop and Big Red's accomplishments is simply  ridiculous.  

Linda in Texas, Dr. D.:

I think John from Seattle has something to do with the absence of Ted from LA and Bob from Boston.

10 Aug 2011 12:05 AM
2:24

Trackjack, agreed. The 1973 Marlboro Cup rivals any field ever put together.  Perhaps it was not greater than the Dr. Fager, Buckpasser, Damascus race but I'm not sure I can think of another field that surpasses it.

10 Aug 2011 1:49 PM

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