Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

With her comfortable win against males in last weekend's Woodward, Havre de Grace confirmed her connections' belief that she is on a Horse of the Year path, and took a major step toward a berth in the Breeders' Cup Classic. All that lies between a chance at making it happen is a good showing in the Oct. 1 Beldame, which should set the filly up for the Classic.

Trainer Larry Jones said her optimal distance is probably 1 1/8 miles, but losing by a neck twice to Blind Luck at the 1 1/4-mile distance isn't exactly shameful and the field shaping up for the Nov. 5 Classic isn't going to remind anyone of the 1998 renewal anytime soon (1998 replay). In fact, with just about two months until the Classic, it can be argued that Havre de Grace will be the horse to beat at Churchill Downs.

If not Havre de Grace, it's the top older male in the country, Tizway, who also has never won a race beyond nine furlongs and still has something to prove in his next tilt, the Oct. 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at 10 furlongs. There he will likely face the top 3-year-old, Stay Thirsty, who does not have distance limitations and would perhaps become the one to beat with a third consecutive victory.

When you get past those three, the field shaping up for the Classic does not seem particularly daunting. As you can see by the latest future odds taken from a compilation of European betting sites, the other main contenders all have major questions marks.

Notables on the list are two European standouts So You Think and Await the Dawn, both trained by Aidan O'Brien for Coolmore. While both are brilliant horses, neither has ever run on dirt and only one will likely try the Classic.

Also on the list are horses that might point for other BC races--Acclamation (Turf), Blind Luck (Ladies Classic), Gio Ponti (Turf or Mile), Sidney's Candy (Mile or Dirt Mile), Shackleford (Dirt Mile), and Uncle Mo (Dirt Mile)--while Twirling Candy continues to show that he doesn't want to win at 10 furlongs. And who knows what to think about Coil now after his Travers disaster. Flat Out, Game On Dude, and Giant Oak certainly deserve to be in the mix but don't exactly inspire a lot of confidence.

In light of what you see above, is Havre de Grace now the horse to beat?

150 Comments

Leave a Comment:

2:24

Yes, unless Blind Luck runs.

06 Sep 2011 4:34 PM
Dee

Harve de Grace, Stay Thirsty, and Flat Out would be my top 3 right now. Tizway and Twirling Candy don't look like they could get the distance and will finish out the top 5. Coil is a major question mark now obviously, and don't think Game On Dude or Giant Oak are as good as the above. I'm hoping Sidney's Candy sticks with the turf, Uncle Mo meets up with The Factor in the Mile and Shackleford sticks to the shorter distances for the Mile- then that would be my Mile trifecta.

06 Sep 2011 4:40 PM
josh

Unless Blind Luck runs, yes she will be.

However, I don't think havre de Grace will run in the BC Classic unless Blind Luck does. It seems like Blind Luck is running in the BC Distaff. My money is that Havre de Grace will be there too.

06 Sep 2011 5:50 PM
Lava'sStilltheMan

Stay Thirsty is the only one here proven both at the distance and on the dirt.  He won't exactly strike great fear in the competition but you have to admire this hard knocker.  Let's see which Euro's show up.  it's wide open.  Havre de Grace is in the mix but that's further than she really wants to go.

06 Sep 2011 6:13 PM
footy231

o you think is the best hors by far the big negitive is never running on dirt if he handled it the field would be ate alive

06 Sep 2011 6:24 PM
Tiznowbaby

If James Bond is to be believed, he has never been able to train Tizway hard enough to get 1 1/4 comfortably. If the foot issues are behind Tizway,  I don't see why he wouldn't get the distance.

Can't help but think Coil's eye issue had some bearing on the Travers. If you're getting mud kicked into an injury, that can't be comfortable.

So You Think has tremendous class but that's a lot of grass breeding.

06 Sep 2011 6:50 PM
Horswld

I agree 110% with 2:24. I can't see any of the rest beating her unless it is Blind Luck.

06 Sep 2011 7:12 PM
ajump08

I think I'd take Flat Out at 20/1.  Of the older horses, he's the only one I feel confident about relishing the full mile and a quarter.

06 Sep 2011 7:40 PM
Giddyup

I think from a historical stand point you can make a pretty good argument that being the favorite in the BC Classic is more of a disadvantage than advantage. Part of the appeal of the race is that you never know when another Wild Again is going to appear.

06 Sep 2011 8:01 PM
Kevin

Stay Thirsty Twirling Candy Exacta over all.  

06 Sep 2011 8:02 PM
Paula Higgins

Stay Thirsty isn't going to lay down and roll over. Not sure about the distance for Havre de Grace. I am still on Uncle Mo's band wagon if he runs too. As others noted as well, have to see where Blind Luck ends up and if the Euros come. Too soon to have a favorite.

06 Sep 2011 9:15 PM
Sylvester

I'm not convinced HDG will run in the classic.  It all depends on what Hollendorfer's next decision is for BL. If he pulls a Zenyatta and hides in CA, HDG will enter the LC so Jones can get that 2nd victory over BL.  If Hollendorfer is a moron and enters BL in the Beldame where she'll lose to HDG, then look for HDG to enter the classic.  Let's face it, at even weights at 9 furlongs BL has no chance.  None. Even Mike Relva has to admit that.

06 Sep 2011 10:09 PM
Ivan

Stay Thirsty looks to be the more natural 10 furlong horse in this group. The problem that he can have is that I don't see much speed in this group, so horses like HDG and Tizway can have an advantage. And of course, if Uncle Mo wins the Pennsylvania Derby, look out. He can be looooong gone!!! Repole wins it one way or the other.

06 Sep 2011 10:18 PM
UncleStosh

Twirling Candy lost by almost nothing twice at 10f, its a little much to say he can't get the distance. That being said I would take the 20/1 on Flatout who I thought had a tough trip the 3 of the last 4 furlongs in his last.

06 Sep 2011 10:48 PM
The Deacon

Acclamation can be a huge factor if they choose to run him in the Classic. The horse doesn't back up.

My issue with Harve de Grace for the Classic is that by November she would have had several hard races and may be past her peak. I think the Ladies Classic is more suitable for her and it would make Friday that more special especially if Blind Luck meets up with her again.

Of the older horses Tizway has done nothing wrong so he would be my choice right now but 2 months is still a ways away. The Euro's won't show up unless they think they can win. Even Gio Ponti has a shot in the Classic if he runs......

07 Sep 2011 2:21 AM
Rachel NH

Tizway should be able to get the distance based on his pedigree alone ;-) and he's talented enough and coming into a great form. I'll never rule out Gio Ponti's big heart, but at a mile and quarter it seems the 2 girls would be the ones most able to beat Tizway, given the fact their Delaware HCp was almost 2 seconds faster than the Travers. (I know, different track, etc) I'd give the edge to BL just because she appears to relish the distance a little more than Gracie.

Unless Stay Thirsty can pick up a little more speed these 4 can out run him.

07 Sep 2011 6:53 AM
Smoking Baby

 If forced to set morning line odds for the Classic today (and I'm just talking morning line odds, not necessarily who will win) I think you'd have to put Havre de Grace on top just slightly above Tizway.  Let's say 5/2 on Havre de Grace and 7/2 on Tizway with Stay Thirsty at 4/1 and Twirling Candy at 7/1.  That's a morning line.  Expect those odds to move and maybe drastically.  I'm leaving out Blind Luck only because I don't see her running in the Classic.

07 Sep 2011 8:48 AM
bellesforever

I think her Woodward win does put her at the top of the conversation ..it is a bit soon to be picking favorites as we don't even know who the field is but I would put her on top ..she seems to be getting better with every race.Her neck loss to B.L. should not be held against her just as so many point to Zenyatta's neck loss to Blame..she never quits and she has gone out of her comfort zone and won.

07 Sep 2011 10:17 AM
AfleetAlexForever

Ida Lee, no problem fulfilling your request regarding correcting you if you were incorrect in your assessment of the two rivals. In races that they have run against each other and won, Blind Luck leads the series 3-2, with the most decisive defeat being Grace beating her by daylight in the Azeri, a race that BL was coming into third off a layoff and Grace was rusty coming off a 4 month layoff.  Its unfortunate that BL was not given much time off after the BC, they targeted races in the Winter (Jan and Feb) of the year, and grade 2 races at that to try to get a leg up on the other horses and it back fired on them, SA played like a speedway and she had no one to close into due to the horses that kept going.  I wouldn’t really say mismanaged but there were some mistakes made. Grace on the other hand was given plenty of time to recharge her batteries and its paying off huge. Honestly though I don’t expect to ever see a true candidate for HOY and Eclipse awards starting the season in Jan unless its a 3 year old.  Not sure what the connections were thinking, but sadly BL is paying for it now as she apparently doesn’t seem to be 100% right. I feel really bad for the filly, and hope she's back to 100% health soon.

07 Sep 2011 10:46 AM
Smoking Baby

 UncleStosh.  I totally agree.  While 1 1/4 may not be Twirling Candy's BEST distance, that doesn't mean he can't GET the distance.  He's finished in front of some pretty decent horses going 1 1/4 and while giving away weight.  

07 Sep 2011 10:53 AM
Slew

So You Think...king of the world!  He's the horse to beat in the Classic.

07 Sep 2011 10:56 AM
AfleetAlexForever

So you think will be trounced if he comes over here and runs on dirt. He may split the field.

07 Sep 2011 11:28 AM
WWSTP

The Euro's will take the BC Classic.  The big race will be between Havre de Grace and Blind Luck in the Ladies Classic.  Hope it gets the coverage it deserves.  It makes sense for them to chase each other since they really are the only excitement in town.

07 Sep 2011 12:09 PM
LAZMANNICK

If HDG is the possible BCC favorite off her Woodward win, does that mean that if Flat Out would have won that race he would have been the favorite in the BCC instead, the same Flat Out that has but a singe graded stakes win to his credit, the G2 Suburban?

07 Sep 2011 12:26 PM
LAZMANNICK

AAF

Give it up on the HDG - Blind Luck rivalry.  HDG has proven top be one of the top fillies around, but she has not been the equal of Blind Luck anyway you want to slice it.  Try this comparison:

• Blind Luck has out right defeated HDG 3 to 2.

• In one of Blind Luck’s losses in the Cotillion she gave HDG 10 lbs. and was charging at the end losing by a neck.

• In the BC Distaff, HDG was 7 lengths in front of Blind Luck with 3/8ths to go.  When they hit the wire, Blind Luck had made up those 7 lengths and though not winning the race and finishing second, was still two lengths in front of HDG, a differential of about 9 lengths in 3/8ths of a mile.

• In the Azeri, HDG was making her first start since the BC Distaff, a period of about 4 ½ months.  She was fresh.  Blind Luck continued to race out in California running in January and February.  She was a tired and run down filly in the Azeri, (yet another cross country trip), having run 12 races in 13 months, travelling across the country and back several times during that time, while HDG was fresh and ready to go.  She finished 2nd in both those January and February races at Santa Anita, a track that at the time was heavily biased towards speed in two turn route races.

• Only you would overlook these facts when trying to build a case for your favorite.  You then publicly say that BL ducked HDG in the Apple Blossom.  Really?  Maybe her trainer decided to give her some time off to freshen and as we see that was the proper call as it worked later on.  In actual fact BL has crossed the country (and back) something like 9 times to zero times for HDG.  I think that takes its toll at some point and changes the playing field.

• In the Delaware Handicap, Blind Luck received 2 lbs from HDG, the only time she had ever received weight from her, and with the five horse field had to run out of her comfort zone by moving much earlier than had been her style in virtually every race she had ever run.  She then raced head-to-head through the stretch under a hand ride while HDG was whipped at least 12 times.

• HDG stepped up and ran in the Woodward (I’m not going to denigrate the quality of the field, which in truth consisted of only two G1 winners besides herself, ice Box in the Florida Derby the year before, and Giant Oak in the Donn at the beginning of the year and also the DQ winner of the Clark at the end of 2010).  You of course trash BL and say that she was ducking horses by not running in the Pacific Classic.  Two things to remember.  The quality of the Pacific Classic was much tougher than the Woodward and the race was also at 10F compared to the Woodward’s 9F.  Big difference when racing against G1 males in an open race.

• In every race that Blind Luck defeated HDG and even in her Cotillion defeat, the margins have been extremely close.  But in every one of those races HDG held the lead and except for the Cotillion was passed.  This can be interpreted as no excuse.

• In both 10F races Blind Luck has defeated HDG, perhaps displaying the greater will to win.

I wonder how you would feel towards Blind Luck if she was under different ownership, had a different trainer and was based in the east instead of the west.

07 Sep 2011 12:26 PM
Criminal Type

I don't think Havre De Grace will be in the BC Classic. She put on as great a performace in the Woodward as I thought she would, but If So You Think and possiibly Frankle are going to run in the Classic, smart money is Larry Jones won't be putting his girl in there with those two. I can't picture So You Think being "trounced" by anyone, except maybe Frankle. Everything I have read indicates that So You Think is coming for the classic. It would be greatly beneficial for O'Brien to send him early to get him acclimated and work over the Churchill Down's track. I think that's where the Euro's make their biggest mistake. They don't bring their horses over soon enough.

07 Sep 2011 12:35 PM
Jason Shandler

Frankel in the BC Classic? Where on earth did you hear that? Not happening.

07 Sep 2011 12:48 PM
AfleetAlexForever

Laz let's stick to the facts here. And let me be clear, this is why you are laughed at when these discussions start and why its even hard to take you seriously.  Fact 1, the nominated field that was to run in the PC were a combined 78/328 or a 24% win clip.  The field nominated for the Woodward were 124/264 or 34%.  How on earth do you twist and spin things to get an indication that the two fields are anywhere alike in quality. Fact 2, Blind Luck has been mismanaged from the first breeze in January after only being given a few weeks off to rest from a seriously ambitious 2010. No legit contender is run in meaningless races in jan of the year. less known in Jan and Feb, for what reason, then to be 3rd off a layoff, do you know what exactly that means Laz, that means that the horse is ready to run its best race with workouts and conditioning from races, or maybe you dont know that but let me clue you in, a horse coming off a 4 month layoff with 4 works is not supposed to demolish a horse with 8 or 9 works and 2 races.  Just doesnt happen.

Looking at that list of Setsuko, Jeranimo, Don Cavello, Tres Borrachos, Stately Victor and Quindici Man, that list frightens no one, it invokes memories of a n/w2 50k allowance race. But you know who it did frighten, the same man that was quoted as saying “if we didn’t get two pounds from her we wouldn’t have run”. The list of runners in the Woodward were by no means world beaters, but are a much more consistent group than what was presented in the PC.  In 64 less starts this group won 46 more races, and in all actuality considering how many of these that ran in the PC has no wins in months gives indication it was an even weaker group. But where was BL, her connections hit the DUCK ALL button. They sure didnt in 2010, even picking up 10 lbs and still shipping east to face Grace. But what of 2011, in a race targeted by Hollendorfer they ducked the Apple Blossom a G1 at $500k for a G2 at $300k, is that ducking, quite right it is. When they said the PE was the target and Porter said ok we’ll go there, what did Hollendorfer say, “we’re going to nominate for the Molly Pitcher and PC” really, you’re not gonna run in the PC and why would u nominate to a race at Monmouth at 8.5f when you’re horse wants more.  So Laz, keep spinning those wheels, you lose more and more credibility with each statement.  I am enjoying watching the show though. What you should do is try to bring your buddy Big Big Mike and others over from Ntra to help you out.  You need it.

07 Sep 2011 1:39 PM
AfleetAlexForever

Jason, here is one better than Frankel coming and running in the BC which is so outlandish that i am surprised you even responded to it.  Someone stated that The Factor is in the hunt for HOY.  Wow. Talk about Clueless.

07 Sep 2011 1:40 PM
swede

SYLVESTER: ARE YOU JUST PLAIN DUMB HOLLENDORFER SITTING ON HIS BUT IN CALIF. 9 TIMES BLIND LUCK COME OUT OF CALIF AND RACED  PLANES AND VANS CAN GO EAST TO WEST BUT I GUESS THE CRY BABIES JONES AND PORTER WOULD RATHER STAY HOME AND BITCH ABOUT 2 lbs.  SWEDE

07 Sep 2011 1:43 PM
Ivan

Euros, except Sakhee and Giant's Causeway, have never done well in the Classic on dirt. I'm not sure that So You Think will come here to run in that race. Regarding Blind Luck, if JH thinks she can pull off HOTY with a win in the Classic, I think he might run her, much more at 10 furlongs, which favors BL over HDG. If Tizway wins the JCGC, I think he is the front runner for HOTY. If that happens, I am almost sure we will see BL in the Classic.

07 Sep 2011 1:52 PM
AfleetAlexForever

Swede, there again was only 1 set of connections that made the weights an issue before the race, Hollendorfer is quoted as saying If we dont get two pounds, not one pound but two pounds we wouldnt have run.  You can spin it like others on here but the man's words are their words. Now, all of a sudden after all that traveling and never giving the horse the deserved time off she needs a 30 day break during the time of the year when HOY resumes are being shored up. Thats called Mismanagement.  I feel sorry for the filly.

07 Sep 2011 2:13 PM
JJW

The Pacific Classic was a very tough race because of Acclamation, Twirlng Candy, and Game On Dude. Those are all top quality Breeders Cup Classic type horses. No shame in Blnd Luck not wanting to take them on. Havvre De Grace wouldn't have either.

07 Sep 2011 2:36 PM
Pedigree Ann

Only thing about So You Think's fall campaign I've seen is that he's not going home to Australia to try to win a third Cox Plate. Otherwise, the Coolmore camp is playing it close to the vest, still mentioning the QEII, the Champion S, and the Arc.

07 Sep 2011 2:40 PM
R.F.

when the smoke clears breeders cup day hoy will be decided in the turf.acclamation versus cape blanco .with the latter winning.

07 Sep 2011 2:40 PM
LAZMANNICK

Afleetalexforever

This is what I see.  Of the horses that ACTUALLY raced in the Pacific Classic, their combined record was 179/43 for a 24% win Pct.  Of the horses that ACTUALLY raced in the Woodward their combined record was 142/41 or a 29% win Pct.  Not quite the fabricated difference based on horses that didn’t even run in the race that you came up with.

Then make a G1 comparison.  The Pacific Classic had four G1 winners of six G1 stakes races including five at 10F and more.  The Woodward had two G1 winners of three G1 races (one of Giant Oak’s was via disqualification and the foul wasn’t against him, it was against the horse that finished third meaning that he inherited the G1 win).  And none of their G1 wins was beyond 9F.  Which race had the deeper talent Dubby?

07 Sep 2011 2:49 PM
John from Seattle

Havre de Grace the favorite in the BC Classic.

Heck, she won't even be the favorite in the BC Distaff.

07 Sep 2011 2:50 PM
Derby fan

Edge to Havre de Grace following the Woodward and Blind Luck is missing in action.

There was a story today about her being scheduled to finally work after about a month's absence, but it didn't happen as Hollendorfer said it would.

Havre de Grace & Blind Luck are heading in opposite directions (one just won the Woodward and the other is hurt) and these fillies probably won't race against each other again this year.

No chance Blind Luck runs in the Classic

07 Sep 2011 2:57 PM
Criminal Type

Did I say Frankle was coming?  Nope, I said it was a possibility. I heard it on one of the British racing shows in the morning on HRTV. What I HEARD was that So You Think IS coming.

07 Sep 2011 3:23 PM
Criminal Type

Alex, possibilities do exist, you know, like one of Afleet Alex's highly touted offspring actually being more then an also ran.

07 Sep 2011 3:24 PM
Jason Shandler

Smarty has as much chance of running in BC Classic as Frankel.

07 Sep 2011 4:02 PM
AfleetAlexForever

Criminal Type, where does that come from, and how exactly is AA part of the conversation. So you dont have an iron in the fire and you decide to bring up the race record of a horse that isnt' being discussed progeny. Please get a grip, some of you have serious issues. I mean really. The possibility of Frankel coming over since he's running in a race 3 weeks prior to the BC so you can fool your self or keep making comments like the one about Afleet Alex and make youself look more naive than you already have.

07 Sep 2011 4:03 PM
AfleetAlexForever

Laz, are yuo referring to Stately Victor as one of those Grade 1 winners, who hasnt won a race in almost a year and hasnt won a g1 in almost 18 months, lol Since that time he’s finished 8th, 7th,9th, 12th and 11th in a few of his races, so yes just like the world beater Brownie Points that you touted earlier on another blog, your arguments seem alot weaker today than normal. Remember the great brownie points you were referring to that went 3/27 in stakes races.  You tout her like she’s the next coming. lol

07 Sep 2011 4:08 PM
Mike Relva

AAF

Did you label it mismanagement regarding Hollendorfer's decisions with BL? Don't think you've won one race, let alone 6000 plus. Somehow it's difficult taking anything you say seriously.

07 Sep 2011 4:14 PM
Shutterbug

While I don't have inside information on why Blind Luck did not work today as planned, one very plausible explanation is that the Los Angeles area is currently sweltering under a heat wave, and there is pollution in the air from several fires.  This weekend will bring a 25 degree F drop in temperature.  A smart caring trainer such as Hall of Famer Hollendorfer knows there is absolutely NO reason to work her today when this weekend will be nice and cool.  Her work can wait a few days.  

Also, I believe he realizes that he pushed her a little too hard last year which resulted in a loss to Unrivaled Belle in the BC Ladies Classic.  But, Blind Luck made up for it by taking her revenge in the La Troinne.

07 Sep 2011 4:25 PM
John from Seattle

Let me see.  Yes, the 2011 Woodward! What a field! Dr. Fager, Damascus, Buckpasser.  Opps, that was 1967.  Oh, but wait, how about Ghostzapper versus Saint Liam.  Nope. That was 2004. Or how about Seattle Slew versus Exceller.  Wasn't that race either.  Could it be  Forego versus Wajima? Nope, that race either.

It was Havre de Grace versus Flat Out.

Who?

Havre de Grace versus Flat Out.

Come on.  Flat Out?  Who's he?

Nobody.  She beat nobody.

The average mare beat nobody.

07 Sep 2011 4:35 PM
LAZMANNICK

AAF

For one who is so all consumed about HOY (three years in a row now isn't it) at least Criminal Type was a HOY.

07 Sep 2011 4:45 PM
Sylvester

Sorry Swede.  I'm unable to make any sense from your posting.  Your grammar and lack of punctuation  make it impossible for me to decipher.  Maybe you can get your Mom or Dad to help you and I can respond.

07 Sep 2011 5:04 PM
DontHateMe

Did anyone hear Randy Moss and Lafitt Pincay comparing HDG and RA's races in the Woodard. They both said that HDG was much more impressive and the competion was much better. Really?? I thought the competion was if anything equal and wasn't RA's race ran about a second faster. Someone help me out on this one.

07 Sep 2011 5:24 PM
Johnny

Wynn's Latest Odds for the Breeders cup

www.drf.com/.../wynns-latest-breeders-cup-favorites

HDG 30-1

07 Sep 2011 6:21 PM
Forbidden Apple

As of now, I would make Tizway the early B.C. Classic favorite. He is far to powerful to ignore, even at 1 1/4 miles.

After Rattlesnake Bridge wins the PA Derby, he will be primed for the B.C. Classic. He is a horse with tremendous potential and distance will not not be an issue for this classy colt.

It is nice to dream of a world where Uncle Mo is king. The reality is that my crystal ball tells me Uncle Mo will soon be retired.

07 Sep 2011 7:33 PM
Householder

AfleetAlexForever.  Let us know what month they put Rachel Alexander away while everyone else was "shoring up their HOY resumes."

I think Hollendorfer's "Mismanagement" of Blind Luck just landed him in the Hall of Fame. Nevermind his "Mismanagement" of Hysterical Lady.

If "Mismanagement" has led to 21 career starts including 6 grade 1 wins the whole industry could use some.  He plans to race her next year.  Can you imagine a horse with 30 starts before retirement?  Unheard of.

If anything, it is camp HDG that is now left chasing the HOY dream with only 2 grade 1 wins with 7 of the 13 starts at Delaware Park.  They should have had her front and center LONG ago.  HOY, based on her 1 third place run at CD, is a LONG shot.

Just like Quality Road who chose to summer at the spa rather than get some runs in over the CD track.  It cost him.  

07 Sep 2011 7:43 PM
Medlocke

Bake it, broil it, fry it, or fix it up anyway you want? If Aidan O'Brien decides to run So You Think in this year's Breeders Cup Classic? It's all over but the crying!! Havre De Grace, Stay Thirsty, Uncle Mo, I don't care who you think the best American conventional dirt horse is with the best chance in the Classic. Great horses can run on anything, and So You Think is great!! An 8-time G1 winner in 2 different hemispheres. Who's a total beast at over 1-1/4. Mark my words, even on conventional dirt, the American horses in the Classic won't have any kind of answer for the kind of speed and stamina that So You Think will throw at them at 1-1/4 at Churchill Downs!! TJMO.

07 Sep 2011 9:20 PM
LAZMANNICK

Afleetalexforever:

Yes but Brownie Points did beat males, didn’t she and like I stated before, she did win the mighty Martha Washington too.  Come to think of it, don’t you think the fact that she beat males and won the mighty Martha Washington that that should have put her in the running for HOY?

07 Sep 2011 10:18 PM
LAZMANNICK

Sylvester:

I thought that SWEDE was posting in a language you understood.

07 Sep 2011 10:20 PM
Alex'sBigFan

I just watched the Travers, King's Bishop, and Woodward today in the US as I could not get a race replay in Morocco.  Wow, Havre de Grace, what a woman!!!!!  Filly Power for sure!  Do we have the 3rd consecutive female HOY in the works?  Could be. Larry Jones seems to think so and it would be redemption big time for him if she is.  But that's getting too far ahead I want Uncle Mo to run in the Classic too for his shot at redemption as well.  Tough choice if I have to choose between those two.   I love both Mo and Havre de Grace.  Will the BC Classic  produce another filly sensation, a Repole one-two knockout punch, or yet another strange under the radar winner????????????????  I think Shack is spent and Thirsty does have a shot.  If sound and well I think Mo would fare better at Churchill than Thirsty, seems to ship better and loves Churchill. Albeit at Derby time Thirsty wasn't quite ready but he does have a legitimate shot at the BCC.  I think Mo's King's Bishop was just as good if not better than Thirsty's Travers win.  Only one thing I do know for sure and that is I am glad to be back home on US soil.

07 Sep 2011 10:48 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Aidan O' Brien couldn't win the Classic with Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Tiznow, Cigar or A.P. Indy. He's probably the most overrated trainer in world history. Nothing against So You Think who is great, no doubt and with a great trainer he might have a shot to win The Classic. With O'Brien, no chance whatsoever, nor would any other horse he might enter in The Classic.

07 Sep 2011 11:59 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Get back to me when O' Brien wins The Classic. I think it's one of the most utterly ridiculous statements ever uttered. O' Brien win The Classic, ridiculous !!!  And absurd !!!!  And just plain nuts !!!  I'll eat my hat if Aidan O' brien wins The Classic, and I'm on a strict no hats diet. That's how strongly I feel about it. My doctor said if I eat one more hat that I could get very sick and maybe even die. At the very least I'd have to buy another hat.

08 Sep 2011 12:37 AM
Matthew W

Both Tizway and Twirling Candy, two horses with very unanswered questions at the Classic Distance--both tower above this pawltry group, I'd say this year there could very well be a female exacta in the Classic--it can happen--and what if?...talk about a cherry on top, just like the late 70's, with Affirmed, Alyday, Slew and Bid--we're catching a motherload of fillydom, from Azeri thru Rags thru Rachel thru Big Z--now we have two fillies who could possibly run one/two in The Classic--I'm on Tizway, and love the 12-1 on Twirlybird, and his stellar recent performance from off a soft pace--but, sure, Harve De Grace is a player, I think Tizway will prove a tough task for her--heck, Jones played his cards so well--he doesn't need to win the Classic--only beat Blind Luck--but if he goes in the Classic, will Jerry follow him? I think he would...

08 Sep 2011 12:59 AM
Matthew W

I'm guessing Pac Classic Beyered high--anybody?

08 Sep 2011 1:03 AM
Matthew W

Blind Luck has done her traveling--like no other in recent memory--give it a break!

08 Sep 2011 1:04 AM
The Deacon

Wow, so much hostility in these blogs. People are entitled to their opinion. It's just yak yak anyway. No one knows for sure where anyone is going at this point. Many owners and trainers always posture this time of year. Anything is possible and what history has taught us is that many of these horses could be sidelined come November. It happens all the time. I think everyone here has a point, right, wrong or indifferent.

Jason:  I do agree with you, Frankel won't run in the Classic but that's just an opinion. All of this depends upon the weights, how these horses come out of their last race and where the connections feel they can win.

Let's all smile and enjoy the ride...........:) lol

08 Sep 2011 1:25 AM
Jonn

stay thirsty and twirling candy are best american horses for the classic, those two fillies should stay in the distaff, there not as tough as zenyatta was and they might get hurt haveing to run so hard like eight bells did and like rachel alexandra in the woodward

08 Sep 2011 1:36 AM
JerseyBoy

There is little chance of So You Think running in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He is 4-1 favorite in the UK ante-post betting for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and those bookmakers usually know what they are doing.

Further, it is hard to believe that Coolmore would rather have him win the Classic over the Arc.

It is also unlikely they would risk such a valuable stud prospect over a dirt track, a possibly wet dirt track.

They might be keeping the idea alive purely as a marketing ploy.

08 Sep 2011 6:50 AM
Slew

AAF...do you mean to say that So You Think will be trounced in the Classic like Cape Blanco (a second-stringer for O'Brien) was trounced in the Arlington Million?  You sure are out of touch with Reality.

Frankel is not coming to the BC.  If he did, he would go into the turf mile against Goldikova, as that is his best distance.  Now, wouldn't that be a heck of a race, especially if you threw in Canford Cliffs into the mix.

08 Sep 2011 7:13 AM
Slew

Medlocke...100% in agreement.  Just look at what what So You Think did to Worforce on sheer determination.  And if anyone thinks a turf horse can't transition to dirt at CD in the BCC...did you happen to catch the Kentucky Derby this year...or were you in a coma?

08 Sep 2011 7:18 AM
AfleetAlexForever

Slew, how about some reality checks for you, what dirt form does So You Think have, the same sort that Dylan Thomas has maybe, please list the last 10f dirt race that SYT competed in, he will be finishing up the track unfortunately.  But you can live the fantasy that he stands a chance in this race.  And its great that you would try to draw a comparison between a turf horse winning a 10f Breeders cup race on a surface he's never even trained on to a horse like cape blanco who is very impressively able to travel and topple the pathetic turf horses that the US is sending to face him.  Here's a question for some of you though, if Acclamation is so great why have his connections avoided the top turf races in america, instead running on the West Coast, instead of taking down the likes of Gio Ponti and Cape Blanco, his connections seem more content with defeating horses named Falcon Rock and Celtic New Year. Difference in class or would someone like Slew say that he's facing the best in the west on Turf, lol. Sounds like another synthetic wonder that underachieved on dirt!!!

Also Slew since you came back with more about the Derby this year, when was the last time before 2011 that a synthetic/ turf horse won the Derby and whats the percentage in the last 100 Years.  Thanx for pointing out the anomaly though.

08 Sep 2011 11:11 AM
Smoking Baby

 The Deacon.  Thanks for the dose of sanity.  I

08 Sep 2011 11:26 AM
AnneM

Blind Luck worked this morning. If she goes in the BC, I am thinking she could easily beat the lot....

08 Sep 2011 12:54 PM
Medlocke

Jason, Henry Cecil has already stated publicly for the record that Frankel will not run in this year's Breeders Cup races. And even if he did, it wouldn't be in the B.C. Classic. He would be entered in the B.C. Mile against Goldikova. Jonn, I think you're absolutely incorrect that So You Think won't be in the Classic. Coolmore already ponied up $25,000 each to supplement So You Think and Treasure Beach into the Breeders Cup back during the "early enrollment period" in June that the Breeders Cup has each year. So You Think has an automatic "win and your in" berth into the Breeders Cup Turf for winning the G1 Irish Champion Stakes. But so does Cape Blanco for winning the Arlington Million. Cape Blanco and Treasure Beach will be Coolmore's B.C. Turf horses. So You Think will be Coolmore's Classic horse. And unless I miss my guess? Coolmore just recently purchased controlling interest in the 3yr.old Excelebration. German 2000 Guineas winner that ran big races against Frankel in the Greenham Stakes and St James's Palace Stakes. I think he's likely to be Coolmore's B.C. Mile horse. Also Jonn, you should go on England's Racing Post web-site more. It's not very likely at all that So You Think is going to this year's Arc either. It's pretty definite that So You Think is going to run in the G1 Champion Stakes over 10f, moved to Ascot from Newmarket this year, in October. Then we'll see him at Churchill Downs in November!! JMO.

08 Sep 2011 1:47 PM
Householder

No kidding Slew.  Not too many horses want to run a classic distance except those with turf pedigree.  I think that is what makes HD-G and Blind Luck interesting.  Not so much on turf pedigree but the fact that they have great races at 1 1/4.  Stay Thirsty in another one. The more I look at his pedigree the more I like him.  

08 Sep 2011 2:13 PM
Householder

Stay Thirsty has that beautiful Seattle Slew-A.P Indy, Northern Dancer-Storm Bird cross.

Don't know what happened in the Kentucky Derby and if he can run outside of New York.  

A big question mark.

08 Sep 2011 2:21 PM
GoldenBroom

Although Churchill doesn't seem to be as quirky as Saratoga, some horses sure don't seem to like it. Blind Luck and Mo seem to like it the best of all the horses discussed here (with a big ? for all the "never ran at CD crowd" include Frankel, So You Think, Coil and Acclamation). I wouldn't count out So You Think from making an appearance. He only runs 1 1/4!? And Coolmore shipped Master of Hounds over 2x this year already so clearly they have an interest running here...not to mention the purse. Top that with Zenyatta's strong performance (disproving her poly specialist branding) and Animal Kingdom's win and it alleviates a lot of fear of switching to the Churchill Dirt surface. Also stud fees are not what they were a few years ago so why not make $ some racing while you can. Thirsty may be a different horse than he was a few months ago, but he's not dominate by any means and his 2 lousy performances over Churchill leaves me uneasy. Tizway has 1 race there and he didn't hit the board. That and the distance question have me shying away from him. Now the ladies on the other hand, both seem to do well there. Blind Luck clearly likes the track with 3 races, 2 wins and a second. HDG 1 race, a 3rd.  But she has a win and a second at Saratoga - which seemed awfully tiring to most and can beat the east coast older males. Lastly while Mo has a steep uphill comeback climb to continue...CD is waiting, where he scored easily last year. I don't think there is a single "yawn" race in either card/day this year. Didn't see how I could be more interested in the classic than last year (I'm not actaully, especially without a triple crown winner or threat, but it's still going to be something to see). Will be glued to my set for sure!

08 Sep 2011 4:00 PM
Slew

AAF: please hone your reading skills.  I used Cape Blanco as a reference to 2nd string UK horses.  What I pointed out about the Kentucky Derby that is a parallel to So You Think's chances is that it was won by a turf horse, Animal Kingdom, who had never run on dirt previously.

SYT is being run in races at to 10f but not over 12.  Aidan O'Brien feels he's the best horse he ever had.  That's very high praise coming from the trainer of Gallileo.

Householder: Seattle Slew is my hero...but watch SYT's run against Workforce.  It was sheer determination that put SYT ahead. There was no rhythm in his stride..he looked uncomfortable yet he pushed ahead on pure muscle. He reminded me of Slew in that race.  Most recently, he won his race with a beautiful and efficient stride...and he looked graceful...and fast.

08 Sep 2011 5:40 PM
Householder

GoldenBroom.  Good point about "some horses sure don't seem to like it."  (Churchill Downs).  Quality Road left the wide sweeping turns for a one mile oval and a determined race mare breathing down his neck.  First start over the track...12th place finish.  

08 Sep 2011 5:47 PM
SACK THE SECRATARY

I think TC ran a winning race in the Pacific Classic at a mile and a quarter.Nobody put any serious pressure on lone front runner Acclamation,and he had no chance to catch him in the stretch.I hope UM does run in the classic trying to beat older horses at a mile and a quarter with his abreviated schedule.To me it seems the connections are trying to make up for not being able to run in the Kentucky Derby.

08 Sep 2011 5:54 PM
Slew

AAF: one other point...you asked what 10f race has So You Think competed in...

Answer...all of them....except the Melbourne Cup which is 2m...and he came in 3rd.

09/03/11    1st 1 1/4 m Irish Champion Stakes-G1

07/02/11    1st  1 1/4 m Coral-Eclipse-G1

06/15/11    2nd  1 1/4 m Prince of Wales's Stakes-G1

05/22/11    1st   1 1/4 m Tattersalls Gold Cup-G1

10/23/10    1st  1 1/4 m W. S. Cox Plate-G1

Hope you recover soon from your lack of knowledge.

And...by the way...I'm a Gio Ponti fan....but he's getting a bit older this year..and perhaps a tad slower.

08 Sep 2011 5:56 PM
Householder

Holy Bull is another one.  Throw out the injury in the Donn Handicap, he only lost 2 out of 16 races.  16:13-0-0.  

He ran 6th in Florida, but his worst performance was a 12th place finish at Churchill Downs.

Probably not possible to have a better 2 year old and 3 year old season (combined) than Holy Bull. What he win 6-7 grade 1 races his 3 year  old season?   A lot of the same races this "highly touted" crop has won.

08 Sep 2011 5:59 PM
Medlocke

@IMO, You're spot on about So You Think. Don't forget, he also won the G1 Cox Plate in 2009 as well. Plus, other than the G1's you've already mentioned, So You Think also won in 2010 in Australia the G1 Underwood Stakes at 1-1/8 the G1 Yalumba Stakes at 1-1/4, and the G1 Mackinon Stakes over 1-1/4. So You Think has won 8 different G1 races on two different continents, in two different hemispheres. This horse is truly talented, and truly amazing!! JMO.

08 Sep 2011 9:01 PM
Alex'sBigFan

Golden Broom,

Completely agree about the Churchill track.  It seems to get deep and very cuppy, maybe that is why the horses don't seem to relish it.  Maybe they don't have their usual footing there and are sinking in too much or getting inundated with flying dirt?  And I thought the BC was a bit eerie run in the dark under the lights there, but all in all it is one of the tracks that can handle the BC.  Mo has that higher knee action that Slew points out to us so maybe he rises above the cuppiness and can handle it better, just a thought.

08 Sep 2011 11:35 PM
Bob from Boston

That is the famous Dr. Drunkinbum.  I'll bet a buck.

09 Sep 2011 1:13 AM
tcc

Jason: Off the subject.

ELMONT, N.Y. − Uncle Mo, beaten a nose in the Grade 1 King’s Bishop in his first start in 140 days, will “most likely” make his next start in the Grade 2, $200,000 Kelso Handicap at Belmont Park on Oct. 1, owner Mike Repole said Thursday.

Repole gave several reasons why he and trainer Todd Pletcher felt the Kelso, run as a one-turn mile, made more sense for Uncle Mo’s second start off a layoff than the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby run at 1 1/8 miles a week earlier. Repole also emphasized that running in the Kelso wouldn’t preclude Uncle Mo from running in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at 1 1/4 miles on Nov. 5 at Churchill Downs.

09 Sep 2011 3:41 AM
Slew

DR.DBum...so sorry I missed your posting. (local news currently has my county...uhh half my state... underwater and it's getting hairier by the second.)

Are you eating straw hats, fedoras, a stetson, or one of those outrageous Derby hats?  You must be thinking about High Chaparral, SYT's sire who won the BC turf.  But then, SYT has Northern Dancer on top and bottom, so I wonder if they'll decide on a race in Canada before the BC?

And, after all this time, I still luv ya!

09 Sep 2011 5:19 AM
PomDeTerre

Harve De Grace has as good a shot as any right now, tho it's too soon to tell with most of the anticipated starters getting one more race under their belts, anything can happen.  Would love to see Animal Kingdon & Nehro there for the Classic.  The best horses are out on injury.

Uncle Mo will be targetted for the mile, not the classic, for two reasons:

He is better suited to the distance- he's this year's version of Rule.

Repole- as always-  seeking the glory- why would he enter 2 in same race when he sees the opportunity of winning two races.  Mo and ST both in BCC will not happen.

09 Sep 2011 10:04 AM
Pedigree Ann

IMHO, Aidan O'Brien has seriously underestimated what So You Think is capable of. He showed he could handle further with his run in the Melbourne Cup. So what does O'Brien do? Runs him at 10f only and skips the big 12f race of the British season. Takes him out of his game by using a hardrunning pacemaker at Royal Ascot; you should have heard original trainer Bart (the LEGEND) Cummings on that tactic! This horse BELONGS in the Arc.

09 Sep 2011 11:28 AM
Ida Lee

It seems Havre is becoming an obsession...we're going to jink her...P.S. if Frankel comes to the US, I will just swoon...

09 Sep 2011 12:37 PM
-Keelerman

Matthew W;

Acclamation received a Beyer speed figure of 105 for his Pacific Classic victory, which is actually higher than Stay Thirsty's Travers figure of 101.

-Keelerman

09 Sep 2011 12:52 PM
oso7

AAF claiming he feels sorry for Blind Luck is pretty amusing.  He doesn't like any West Coast horse running now or retired, so his claiming he has concern for her well-being is a farce.  He states BL is being mismanaged which is just another example of his repetitive dismisal of CA trainers--apparently even those recently elected to the HOY and a 6000 time winner is subject to his scorn.

AAF's mentioning of the 32 ounces HDG had to carry and claiming JH said he wouldn't run unless he got that weight advantage is disingenous as well.  Hollendorfer's comments came AFTER the weight assignments were made, not before.  As such, his comments had zero affect on the racing secretary's decision to give BL weight.  The only whining about weight came from Rick Porter and Larry Jones after HDG ran 2nd yet again to BL.  Wonder if they had any empathy for BL's 10 pound differential in the Fitz Cotillion?

As for HDG, she is a wonderful, gifted filly and her rivalry with BL is about the best thing going in racing right now.  But to claim her impressive win in the Woodward launches her into the stratosphere is going overboard.  The field was a decent one but not a great one, as already stated by others.  Moreover, her running time was the 5th slowest in the last 21 runnings of that race.  Hardly something to go gaga over, or perhaps it is in AAF's world of spin.

HOY won't be determined until the BC.  I do hope BL and HDG face one another again this year and after BL goes up 5-2 in head to head meetings maybe the AAF's of this world will slink away until the find their next "favorite" who will be the best horse to ever look through a bridle.      

09 Sep 2011 1:35 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Slew

  Maybe one of them fancy KY Derby hats, run it through the wood chipper and make a milk shake out of it, or maybe an English Derby hat, chop it up and make an Irish Stew. Don't hold your breath though, O'Brien has to win The Classic first. In the meantime I'll eat my veggies.

09 Sep 2011 3:28 PM
Draynay

Harve is a better horse than Blind Luck.  Blind Luck isn't even working out so pass on that horse the rest of the year.  Uncle Mo would be my bet if he gets in.  I wouldn't be any horse to beat him at Churchill.

09 Sep 2011 7:28 PM
Matthew W

Keelerman--Thanks for that! I think 105 is low--I thought they really ran lights out--you can see how they drew off in the last eighth--that portends to a good rating--12-1 on Twirling Candy is finally getting a price on him! He is probably the best horse in the USA, and yet he doesn't want to tough it out in the tenth furlong--but he's coming close, and to come from behind that walking pace in the Pac Classic, well, I'll include him in my exactas, that's for sure--nothing really stands out, I feel Tizway and Twirlybird are one/two, then it's a long way to third--the fact that neither seems to want ten furlongs is what makes this year's Classic so intriguing! If Blind Luck runs well in her prep, I'd love to see those grande dames try to beat the boys--one thing is certain: Harve De Grace will have to defeat a much better and deeper field of male horses if she goes in The Classic--taking nothing away from her recent smashing victory, but The Woodward wasn't The Whitney! She didn't beat Tizway, nor do I think she will....

09 Sep 2011 7:29 PM
LAZMANNICK

Blind Luck worked yesterday, 4F in 47 and change at Hollywood Park.

09 Sep 2011 8:24 PM
Matthew W

Twirling Candy, at one time compared (not by me) to Bid, is very much like J O Tobin....still, when you handicap him, you always have that Swaps in the back of your mind, and with Twirling, you always have in there an expectation that sooner or later he will dominate them, sooner or later he will show everyone that he's all that--my thinking is, better to get 12-1 when he aires by four then playing him at 2-1 and getting his patented hang jobs....I'm thinking he'll get it (the distance) sooner or later....heck, Ancient Title and Precisionist did, even J O Tobin, eventually if you're best at 1 1/8, you'll get it done at 1 1/4---usually once, that is....no way am I leaving a horse like that out of my exacta box....

09 Sep 2011 8:29 PM
Old Timer

I would not call Havre de Grace a favorite but she certainly is one of the main contenders. Nevertheless, as one writer said, she probably woudn't even be favored in the Distaff.

What shocks me is to see Uncle MO at such low odds, 7 or 8 to 1. Really? For a horse who has been ill most of the year and has won one race, basically an allowance race? It shows how overhyped that horse is and has been.

Stay Thirsty and Tizway deserve to be co-favorites at this point in time.

09 Sep 2011 8:40 PM
SACK THE SECRATARY

if Um runs in the classic off a mile race he wont hit the board,and it will be a great betting opportunity.

09 Sep 2011 10:18 PM
Matthew W

Not sold on Stay Thirsty--he woke up at Saratoga--ran lights out--still, I wonder just how much he's beating over there--not the greatest crop! Still, he gets the distance, which instantly makes him a contender! I just think he'll be facing a whole lot tougher horses in Tizway/Twirling--hard to think he could outrun them--outlast them? Maybe....

10 Sep 2011 12:01 AM
Swale1984

Slew, AAF's lack of knowledge is a chronic, termainal case from which he will never recover.  He's been spewing the same half-truths and flawed logic on forums all over the internet for years.   Heck, he tried to argue that Twice Over wasn't competitive because he finished 5th behind Rewilding and So You Think, both of whom would probably trounce most American horses.

I don't see a lot of dirt influence in SYT's pedigree, but I am encouraged by how well Master of Hounds closed in the Derby.  He's got a predominantly turf pedigree, being by Kinggmambo and out of a Sadler's Wells mare.  Of course, the common denominator there is Sadler's Wells, the grandsire of SYT.  In his pedigree analysis of Animal Kingdom prior to the Derby, Steve Haskin noted that the heavy clay content at CD benefits turf horses switching over, especially if the track turns up wet and packed down.  Given that Animal Kingdom won and Master of Hounds closed like a freight train, I'd have to say he's on to something.

10 Sep 2011 11:19 AM
Smoking Baby

 Mathew W.  Well remembered.  J.O. Tobin by 8 over Affiliate and Text with Seattle Slew another 8 back in fourth.  1 1/4 in 1:58 and change.  Shoemaker just let him roll from the get go.  Still one of the best race calls of all time from Harry Henson in my opinion.  I spent some time as a child at El Peco Ranch down in Madera shortly after Hill Rise won the Big 'Cap so I was VERY in to J.O. Tobin in 1977 and '78.  It wasn't so much he couldn't handle the mile and a quarter as he couldn't handle Exceller and Vigors that year.  I still think his best race was the Malibu under Steve Cauthen.

10 Sep 2011 11:41 AM
Matthew W

Smoking Baby I was there for Slew in the Swaps! 68K and no infield, it was wall to wall--Slew didn't come out with the others, he was saddled somewhere else then he left the Post Parade early--they stood for him when he came back--stood and cheered for Slew--I remember Henson ("...and he's WIDENING"...)...I was also there for his drubbing of Cox's Ridge at 1 1/16...I played him in the Hol Gold Cup/with Cauthen---alas, he bore out badly and rubber-legged it home--Exceller looked lights out that day--7-1 and Shoe, but they were really there (another 68K) for Vigors, "The White Tornado", who came from far back, made the lead--then hung like a Van Gogh--Harry Henson, right at the finish, blurted "THREE NOSES ON THGE WIRE"!...but, yes, J O Tobin was a beautiful horse, I saw him work out at Del Mar, right before he boarded a plane for Saratoga, where he won at 7fur by 10--then got plastered in The Whitney by three year old Alydar, who was taking a respite from hyis chestnut nemesis, Affirmed--oh the equine-namity!

10 Sep 2011 7:06 PM
Stevebiscuit

Draynay, Uncle Slow will finish no better than Quality Road if he runs in the Classic.

10 Sep 2011 8:11 PM
AfleetAlexForever

Slew, maybe before asking me to refine my reading skills you could take your own advice, this time i'll repost what i stated with some emphasis.

Slew, what dirt form does So You Think have, the same sort that Dylan Thomas has maybe, (((please list the last 10f dirt race that SYT competed in)))?

So that was the question what 10furlong dirt races has SYT ran in and won and when did he last train on dirt. I'll wait for your response.

10 Sep 2011 9:57 PM
AfleetAlexForever

Oso or 007 back again, let’s address the current issues at hand and your glaring lack of knowledge.  I could care less if Hollendorfer had 16,000 wins, mismanagement of a horse is running the horse 10 times in 2010, on the road a number of times, asking the horse to run in the BC and then giving the horse less than 30 days to rest and then coming back and putting the horse in tough training for to make starts in inconsequential, meaningless races in Jan and Feb of the next year.  Let’s take a look at how a horse should be managed on the other hand.  Havre De Grace ran in the BC in Nov and was given the rest of Nov-Dec-Jan and time in Feb off, she worked 4 times prior to the Azeri, 2 of those workouts being 4 days apart as she didn’t get much out of her first workout, and she had a early season target, The Apple Blossom the same race that BL targeted per Hollendorfer.  In the Azeri, BL third off the layoff and HDG rusty off a lengthy layoff, hmm what was the result, a trouncing, moving forward, Hollendorfer stated after the race that they would return for the AB, well that daylight drubbing changed all of that and then there came excuses, she’s tired or her feet aren’t right, great time off duck the AB and go in the La Troienne, skip ahead a few months, her last race was mid July in the Del Cap, we are now in Sept and she’s yet to race again, the horse is tired, she’s been nominated to run in 4 or 5 races and well ducked them all.  Now Hollendorfer is looking at the Beldame and Lady’s Secret, Buzz saws in each and he’s looking at according to him the easiest spot.  Well I am sure they will nominate to the Spinster also, the problem a 3 year old buzz saw there in Royal Delta who Bill Mott says is possible to go there due to not wanting to face HDG.  What to do, do all of these circumstances tell you that the horse has been campaigned in the most efficient manner.  To you it may because as a west coast obsessive fan, your trainers do no wrong.  

As for the 2 lbs I don’t recall saying that the statement had anything to do with the racing secretary, that’s your mindless spin that you put on the situation. Hollendorfer your fav trainer stated if I hadnt’ gotten the 2 lbs we would not have shipped for the race, do you understand what that means or should I explain it. That doesn’t in anyway mean he went to anyone and made the statement, its just what it is.

As for the Woodward, here is the point, HDG ran in the race, BL was nominated to the Personal Ensign, Molly Pitcher, Pacific Classic and im sure a host of other races and ran around her stall that weekend.  I am sure she was happy to not deal with any of those fields.  Certainly had no chance to win the PC, even though the horses in there had a winning percentage of less than 30% between them.  

Sad that the two mares may not meet again as the BCC is the possible goal for HDG and the lesser race the BCLC is the stated goal by mean of Hollendorfer’s words.  Sad for the industry. But the best of the best of the female persuasion run against males when they are talented enough.  The Standard set by Rachel is yet to be equaled as no filly has won more than 1 race against males on dirt during a season in the US since Rachel’s legendary season.  Zenyatta tried but failed miserably. HDG has a chance to at least defeat males twice something Zen never did also, but they are far short of Rachel in that regard.

10 Sep 2011 10:22 PM
Will

The BC Ladies Classic may well generate the real interest in this year's BC. If both Havre de Grace and Blind Luck win their next outings and Hollendorf enters BL in the Ladies Classic,  how can Jones take a chance on losing HOY honors by not contesting with Blind Luck. With the Woodward under her belt only if Havre de Grace took on the boys in both the Jockey Gold Cup - which isn't going to happen - and the BC Classic and won both could Jones and Porter feel absolutely assured of winning HOY honors without contesting again with Blind Luck at the BC assuming BL wins the Ladies Classic. If both keep winning, it seems hard not to conclude that where Blind Luck goes Havre de Grace must follow if her connections goal is to win HOY honors. As for the Classic if it were only on synthetic would love to see Gio Ponti finish out his career in that race facing such a weak field of colts.

11 Sep 2011 12:42 AM
Slew

Aaargh...don't you know it stings when you bring up J.O. Tobin and the Swaps.  Slew wasn't fit, and his owners made a poor decision for the $$.  But then, when he came back, he "slew" every dragon, and then just got nipped in the JCGC by Exceller.

I have to say, of the 3 year old crop and handicap males this year, 2 horses stand head and shoulders above them all.  Blind Luck and Havre de Grace.  They've both been doing it all year.

Swale 1984...I'm well aware of AAF's affinity to write lengthy blogs that denigrate every other poster, their opinions, and every horse that isn't RA.  He's been doing it for years with lopsided info, because he doesn't seem to take the time to research what he's talking about.  To ask me to name one race where SYT ran 10f was inane and shows a shallow understanding of World racing.  

DR D: If...and that's a big IF, O'Brien runs SYT in the Classic, I will personally create a lovely Derby Fascinator for you to munch on. Quite a lot of his horses have already qualified for BC races.

Pedigree Ann:  If SYT goes to the Arc, he'll simply run against horses he's already beaten.  If he come to the BC, I'll be much happier.  But the Arc is in October, and he can do both, though I doubt he will, and he's alreadu beaten last year's Arc winner, Workforce.  

Matthew W:  Considering Slew's fierce temperment and intimidation of his rivals, I can understand why he was kept separated.  I'm absolutely burning with envy that you got to see him.

11 Sep 2011 10:25 AM
JJW

Blind Luck's doing well like she always has and she's been managed just fine. She beat Havre De Grace once again in her last start and she's right on target for the Ladies Classic which has been her goal all year. Her trainer doesn't care about what Havre De Grace is doing or what Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta did. His only concern is Blind Luck and she's right where he wants her to be.

11 Sep 2011 2:10 PM
Stevebiscuit

For Larry Jones, weight only matters when you lose. He believes 2 lbs equals 1 1/2 lengths. So would he say that had she not been given a 3 lb break she would have lost? You can't have it both ways Mr. Jones!

11 Sep 2011 4:56 PM
tcc

Jason:

BOSSIER CITY, La.- Trainer Bob Baffert said on Sunday morning that Prayer for Relief has put himself in position for a start in the Breeders’ Cup Classic after winning his third consecutive graded stakes in the Super Derby on Saturday. The horse wired the field in the Grade 2, $500,000 race at Louisiana Downs, and earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 98. The number equaled the career-best figure he had put up one start earlier in the Grade 2 West Virginia Derby.

11 Sep 2011 11:41 PM
dinney23

If people think Twirling Candy cannot get the mile and a quarter distance...you are WRONG.

He can get the distance. He broke the track record for God's sake...Acclamation just beat him. And if Acclamation had any pressure on him early Twirling Candy would have won that race. If he couldn't get the distance he would have been run the distance a second and a half slower. On dirt he will be better. Yeah, he ran like crap in the Santa Anita Handicap on dirt, but that was a DIFFERENT TWIRLING CANDY. A younger, less experienced, and more green Twirling Candy. Now that he can relax, will get some help up front and sit right off a hopefully crisp pace, and dirt...he's the winner.

11 Sep 2011 11:49 PM
AfleetAlexForever

Slew let's try again, 3rd time maybe a charm. Again I will repeat and i dont know how much simpler I can make things but I will try to say it as slow as I can and i'll quote myself, C-A-N  Y-O-U  P-L-E-A-S-E  

E-X-P-L-A-I-N  T-H-E  C-U-R-R-E-N-T

D--I--R--T, DIRT, D-I-R-T, DIRT,

D-I-R-T,D--I--R--T, DIRT, D-I-R-T, DIRT, D-I-R-T,D--I--R--T, DIRT, D-I-R-T, DIRT, D-I-R-T,D--I--R--T, DIRT, D-I-R-T, DIRT,

D-I-R-T FORM at 10 Furlongs.

Let me try to rephrase, Slew Does So You Think have Dirt Form @ 10f?

Does So You Think Have Dirt Form @ 10f?

Again Over and over Slew, let me ask you what dirt form does SYT have at 10 furlongs.

Now I wouldn't feel the need to emphasis the DIRT form at 10 furlongs, but you seem to be unable to comprehend the simple question I asked previously, do you have a block that causes you to be unable to read complete sentences if so then I wont direct any comments or thoughts your way going forward, but at the same time please make sure you do the same.  

Again please list any """"DIRT""""

FORM at 10furlongs that So You Think has.

11 Sep 2011 11:50 PM
Pedigree Ann

AAF, So You THink has no form on dirt, which means he has never lost on it. One doesn't know until one tries. However he has won on Australian turf, which is not as deep at Euro turf, in general. However I still believe he belongs in the Arc, because the Arc is a REAL world championship race, with horses coming from all over the Northern Hemisphere to run. (I'm afraid there are no USA turf horses that could qualify.) If Coolmore decides to run him another year, the Dubai World Cup could be a goal and if won, the BC Classic would be a logical way to go.

Oh, and by the way; So You Think's racing style - sit just behind the pace and pounce - would be better suited to American dirt races than that of many turf runners. And like Stay Thirsty, he stays every inch of 10f, unlike many American contenders.

And for those mentioning Quality Road at Churchill? It wasn't the track that beat him. It was challenge on the pace and the fact that he DIDN'T stay every inch of 10f. And that he hadn't had a race in over two months (genius move).

12 Sep 2011 12:25 PM
LAZMANNICK

AAF

Such childness.

12 Sep 2011 1:38 PM
Smoking Baby

 Slew, don't sweat it bro.  Everyone knows Seattle Slew didn't run his race that day at Hollywood.  Check it out.  Summer of 1984.  Road trip to Kentucky.  Stopped at Spendthrift Farm.  Nicest people in the world.  We got to see...Drum roll please.  Majestic Prince, Seattle Slew, J.O. Tobin, Affirmed and the old man himself, Nashua.  Affirmed may have been the prettiest horse I've ever laid eyes on.  The same groom they had for Seattle Slew was also the groom for a horse named Big John Taylor.  He spent a bunch of time with us while cleaning up after Big John and telling us stories about the horses and their individual personalities.  Not a bad way to spend an afternoon let me tell you.

12 Sep 2011 1:52 PM
Smoking Baby

 I'm leaning toward AfleetAlexForever on the So You Think issue right now.  Not sure about him on American dirt but who's to say?  I guess you could say he's undefeated on it.  (poor attempt at humor I know....I'm no Dr. Drunkinbum)

12 Sep 2011 2:01 PM
Slew

Does anyone else hear a smug buzzing sound like a mosquito, or was it AAF trying to make some vague point.  Question...how was Animal Kingdom's dirt form before the Derby?....non-existent....and yet...he still won.

Any horse who can go up and down hill on an undulating UK or Ausie turf for 10 to 16 f, will not have a problem on a FLAT CD dirt surface at 10f.

A turf horse winning the Classic? On dirt?  Impossible?

1993 BC Classic winner who never previously ran on dirt, only turf...Arcangues.

Doesn't sound so impossible any more.

12 Sep 2011 3:32 PM
oso7

Oh AAF,

Where does one even begin to start with your inane, repetitive nonsense.  Well, let's start with this from you:

"In the Azeri, BL third off the layoff and HDG rusty off a lengthy layoff, hmm what was the result, a trouncing, moving forward, Hollendorfer stated after the race that they would return for the AB, well that daylight drubbing changed all of that and then there came excuses, she’s tired or her feet aren’t right, great time off duck the AB and go in the La Troienne, skip ahead a few months, her last race was mid July in the Del Cap, we are now in Sept and she’s yet to race again, the horse is tired, she’s been nominated to run in 4 or 5 races and well ducked them all."

Which do you want, AAF?  Your hypocritical double standards are working overtime.  So are your run-on sentences.  So BL gets "trounced" in the Azeri and her trainer decides to face lighter competition by going in the La Troienne rather than face HDG again.  How shameful is that?  Oh, wait, it isn't really shameful because your former favorite filly, RA,happened to run in the same race the year before, although with a different outcome.  BL won her race, RA didn't.

Then you claim JH is busy ducking all these super-duper races like the Woodward with all of 2 G1 winners other than HDG.  I mean, gosh, if JH needed another stakes win, where was BL for that outstanding G3, the Obeah, or the even more awesome Woodward?  Do you think BL would have ended up running the 5th slowest time in the last 21 runnings of the Woodward?  I don't.  

Ok, now let's take a look at your last paragraph:

"Sad that the two mares may not meet again as the BCC is the possible goal for HDG and the lesser race the BCLC is the stated goal by mean of Hollendorfer’s words.  Sad for the industry. But the best of the best of the female persuasion run against males when they are talented enough.  The Standard set by Rachel is yet to be equaled as no filly has won more than 1 race against males on dirt during a season in the US since Rachel’s legendary season.  Zenyatta tried but failed miserably. HDG has a chance to at least defeat males twice something Zen never did also, but they are far short of Rachel in that regard."

Yes, it might be a shame if these 2 great rivals don't meen again this year but neither of us knows what will happen in November.  At least we do know that neither filly is currently stallbound as RA was following her effort in the Woodward.

Zenyatta failed miserably?  What race were you watching?  Or were your eyes trained on your favorite for that race, Quality Road,and when he skidded to a stop in the stretch you didn't see Zenyatta's amazing run to only lose by a dimininshing head to Blame?  Or if QR finished 21 lengths behind Zenyatta, whose performance you have labelled miserable, what does that make his effort.  Abysmal?  That's about right.

Carry on, AAF.  Don't let the sound of laughter at your postings cause you to stop typing away.  

P.S.  It's "couldn't care less", not "could have cared less".

12 Sep 2011 6:08 PM
AfleetAlexForever

Pedigree ann, thank you for at least answering the question. That would be an appropriate answer, and if I recall many Euros have tried and thus far the record is unimpressive.  I could really care less about his Australian races on turf, that has nothing at all to do with coming 6000 miles and trying to take down this weak group of American older horses. Even with the group being weak he will likely still struggle and wont come anywhere close to hitting the board.  

No Slew there is no buzzing sound, what occurred was you were asked in a very straight forward manner about the dirt form of So You Think at 10 furlongs.  For 2 straight messages riddled with absolute nonsense about the horse winning 10 furlong races in Europe and Australia.  Again how many of those races were on Dirt.  It took 5 or 6 days and numerous posts to get to the bottom of this conspiracy, we’ll call it Dirtgate.

Oso, as I “wipes” my brow to deal with your overly obsessive compulsive, Troll like behavior.  I’ve been dealing with you on so many different occasions, but hey I guess it is the Internet and you’re free to continue to Stalk me.  From MSNBC, to TBTimes, to TVG Community, to Bloodhorse, I bet if I post on Drf which I do I am sure you’ll find me there and continue to say well, nothing, but here goes.

Blind Luck is a very nice filly of this I am sure, good enough to deal with males, doubtful, her package is just not right for that type of challenge so, at this point the trainer is dealing with a horse that is struggling to finish off the year.  Not her fault, his fault, his fault for trying to run her in the ground, 21 or 22 races in a bit over 2 years, not the way things should be done.  Why was she stall bound for the last 60 days.  Unable to train or race due to the Del Cap absolutely draining her.  It was sad to see her have to skip all of those, and I do mean all of those races that they ducked to prep in either the Spinster, Beldame or Lady’s Secret.  Its unfortunate that she did skip a race in the Woodward that they knew she couldn’t win, and then they even skipped those lesser races like the Pacific Classic and C.L. Hirsch, to get rest I guess.  There is nothing wrong with that. One horse is very fit and raring to go at this point the other is coming off a 60 day rest.  You do the math.

Attempt to disrespect Rachel all you want, you leave yourself looking bitter and petty, at least Rachel was able to compete with males on 3 different occasions winning each race.  She didn’t lose to a Grade 2 male like Blame, and then try to place blame on QR.  I will say this about QR though, if he impeded Zenyatta, well so what that’s racing, and if the horse has no tactical speed then, the trip will be difficult anytime the horse is facing a full field.  Blame was absolutely the best horse on the day as he was hand ridden, while Zenyatta faced over 25 hard lashings from Mike Smith’s Whip, looking for that imaginary extra gear.  Sadly apparently the dirt in Smith’s eyes didn’t allow him to see the 1200 lbs butt of QR, as he was backing up, if a jockey can’t see that coming then he should retire or get his eyes checked or get a mount on a tactical horse with great ability like BLAME.

Hope you continue Trolling.

12 Sep 2011 8:00 PM
2:24

Slew:  I saw the great Seattle Slew win the Belmont in person.   Of course I was 4 but it is one of my first and greatest memories.

12 Sep 2011 9:49 PM
oso7

Well, AAF, I must commend you for at least using your standard name here rather than resorting to one of your pseudonyms, such as Unclemofan or 2fast4u.  It is funny that you are so inept you can't even disguise your bias and bitterness in your hidden postings.  Some of which have even been caught on this website over the past year.

Hard lashings by Mike Smith?  Please don't make me laugh.  Was Zenyatta dragging one of her hindquarters as she she came off the track?  No, that would have been poor RA after being forced to hold off Macho Again with the relentless beating she took at the hands of Calvin Borel.  No wonder she dumped him in the post parade, he never should have been her jockey.

Btw, BL has not been stall bound since the Del Cap as you are claiming.  She galloped over the Del Mar track numerous times following her WIN in the Del Cap.  But her trainer felt she didn't care for the surface so her 1st recorded workout was at Hollywood.

Lastly I would never disrespect RA.  Her owner?  Yes.  Her jockey and trainer?  You bet.  They ran that magnificent filly into the ground in 2009 and she came back no where near the same horse.  She couldn't even beat a John Shirreff's third stringer for Gods-sakes.  That fault lies with her connections, not her.  

Time for you to wake up and smell the roses.  Do you see anyone here or anywhere else supporting your BS?  As for trolling after you, hard to read any horse racing website where your standard baloney isn't plastered--except for those, of course, where you have either been run off or outright banned.    

12 Sep 2011 10:05 PM
Sylvester

Sorry LAZMANNICK.  I don't understand what the simpleton is saying.  Obviously you do since you're on his level.  Would you mind getting your mom or dad to write it in a grammatical manner that would be understood by adults?  Thanks dude!

12 Sep 2011 10:12 PM
Swale1984

Pedigree Ann and Slew,

     Thanks for being here to try to educate poor AAF on the ways of racing with which he seems to be so unacquainted.   To recap (because I fear that we need to repeat these facts AT LEAST three times for it to sink in):

1) Steve Haskin pointed out prior to the Derby that the CD dirt has a heavy clay content, which can help horses coming from the turf.  He went on to say that it gets better for them if the track turns up wet and packed down.

2) That point came in an article about Animal Kingdom's ability to run on dirt, as he had no previous dirt form.

3) Animal Kingdom took to the CD track like a duck to water.

4) Two other horses with predominately turf pedigrees, Master of Hounds and Brilliant Speed, closed superbly on that same track. (At least 2 personalities on HRTV commented that Brilliant Speed's race in particular was deceptive--that it was much better than it looked)

5) A turf horse HAS won the race before.  Two others came VERY close to winning.  Giant's Causeway lost  by a neck  on the CD track, but he still  managed to beat that year's Derby winner, who finished 6th.   Sakhee lost by a nose on Big Sandy.

Just because a horse doesn't have form doesn't mean it should be totally thrown out....especially when he's one of the top 5 horses in the world.....but what kind of logic should we expect from someone who just jumps on bandwagons?

12 Sep 2011 11:05 PM
LAZMANNICK

Awe gee Sylvester.  Any truth to the rumor that you and AAF share the same brain cell?

12 Sep 2011 11:35 PM
JJW

If you don't think So You Think can win the Classic then don't bet on him. No need to keep writing paragraph after paragraph ragging on him.

13 Sep 2011 2:13 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

It's not like every turf horse can transfer his talent to the CD dirt. A young horse with limited starts like Animal Kingdom can't be compared to So You Think whose owners realize has no shot in The Classic this year. He'll be more smartly placed than that. I'm not even saving up for a new hat. Not one penny. Animal Kingdom's pedigree seems much better suited to the dirt than So You Think's. Don't you think?

13 Sep 2011 10:38 AM
AfleetAlexForever

I would have to say that I don’t think that Mike Smith was just lightly tapping Zenyatta as she was struggling to catch a horse in Blame that was less than 5 lengths in front of her as they turned for home. The same horse that was  2 lengths in front as they straightened out.  I’ll ask you though, is there a difference between the virtual hand ride that Blame got and the 25 or so smacks with the whip that Zenyatta felt.  Obviously the best horse won that day, and honestly her inability to take down a horse that won’t be ranked in the top 50 horses running in the last ten years speaks volumes.  The list of horses that Blame would have never ever beaten starts with Curlin and goes back to the likes of Tiznow.  With that being said I do understand now why the connections felt it more important to chase Pepper’s Prides records. How difficult is it really to beat the likes of Rinterval and Anabaa’s Creation, the cream of the crop out there in So Cal right. LOL. A horse all out and under a whip to run down allowance horses and horses exiting optional claimers is not worthy of any type of award. Maybe top horse in Cali would be fitting but that’s neither here nor there.  What we do know is that the top horse in 2009 won HOY, and the best horse in 2010 and the winner of the top race lost HOY to a horse that did very little who received a bogus, sentimental award that was for the first time in the history of the sport given to a horse that defeated ZERO grade 1 winners in races in which the horse was victorious.  And only stepped up in class 1 time and was defeated on the biggest stage. (Thank Goodness a true Champion like Goldikova showed up and showed us how great horses perform)!!!!!  Remember the argument in 09, because she won the Classic she was deserving of HOY, then in 2010, because she lost the Classic she’s deserving of HOY. Comical.

Swale great to see you took out time from your busy career to slum with your friend OSO, she always needs your assistance, now all we need is the Youtube link posting Bisket and it’ll be an MSN, HRM reunion.  Speaking of educating, not really sure you should be the one to try to do that, especially when the 5 points that you listed are such the weak argument.  But let’s break them down 1 by 1.

#1. Great insight by Haskin, did you get him to give you indication as to how many turf horses have won the Derby.  Please list how many in 137 runnings were only trained on ran on turf, Sad to point out that AK wouldnt be on that list with his AWS experience, lol.  There goes that argument! Good Try though.  

#2&3 – Combo.   Animal Kingdom had been training and running on Synthetic surfaces prior to the Derby, its been a long believe theory that horses coming over from a synthetic surface translate their form beautifully, so how much time do you think SYT has spent training on synthetics or dirt, Zero, that sounds about right.

#4 MOH ran a great race – finished 5th.  On par with where I expect the class of SYT to get him in the Classic if he’s lucky.

#5. Easiest point to discredit – So 1 out of 26 seem to be good odds FOR YOU to get a turf horse across the wire first in the Classic. Nice can we equate that to about 80-1, but if that’s your hope then that’s fine, we all know that everyone isn’t as well equipped to try to teach others.  Especially when they don’t have common sense themselves.

IT'S been fun reducing your little points down to basically nothing, thats the importance your thoughts have but, dont worry i'll be around later to disprove the majority of what you say later.  Stick with pedigree and trying to teach 5th graders.

BTW where will BL run options: 1 Lady's Secret, 2. Spinster, 3. Beldame, 4 Las Palmas stakes. I vote for #4. Great prep. lol Better than the race they chose in Sept, Oh they ducked them all. LOL

13 Sep 2011 1:12 PM
AfleetAlexForever

Thanx JJW and DDrunkinbum, finally the voice of reason, point is when one poster avoids a simple question like does the horse have dirt form to compare, then you know there is an issue.

13 Sep 2011 1:37 PM
Slew

This blog appeared to be about who we thought would win the BC Classic.  I think it's So You Think. Apparently, so do most of the handicappers around the world, because he has the lowest odds.  Timeform rating for SYT is 142, and he's favored to win the Arc.  If he comes to the BC..if..if..if.  

Everyone has their own opinion.  That's a good thing, because we then can discuss the merits of our choices.

Then along comes AAF, who seems compelled to write a novella denigrating everone else and their choices.  It would appear that he is unable to make any choice without smearing the opposition.  What a terribly depressing world he lives in. Sounds too much like politics...all hot air and no substance.

Every horse going to the BC will have earned their right to be there.  I, personally, can't wait to see the top world talent gathered on the same stage.

Horses I'm disappointed that we will not see...Black Caviar and Frankel.  But I'm thrilled about the horses we will see.  Perhaps we should remember, a good horse usually favors a preferred surface, but a GREAT horse can run on anything.

2:24..see, you're just making me ever so green with jealousy...but Slew was a miracle...wasn't he?  

13 Sep 2011 1:59 PM
Slew

I should add, that through all the muckraking...AAF NEVER gave us HIS choice to win the BC Classic.  Odd.

So much to say with so very little said.

13 Sep 2011 2:07 PM
Footlick

I'd just like to say the claass of SYT in unquestionable.  His dirt ability is the question.  If he can transfer his form to Churchill dirt, he totally outclasses any of our horses in that race.  JMHO

13 Sep 2011 4:16 PM
Footlick

Dr Drunkinbum- have you spoken to Coolmore or AOB?  Did they tell you that they feel So You Think has no chance in the BCC?  I was just wondering how you know they feel that way?  They have said nothing of the kind in any interviews they have given on the subject so I assume you have a contact within their organization.

13 Sep 2011 5:46 PM
Swale1984

Slew, don't you know that AAF doesn't HAVE to give us his picks?  Over the years, he's used misdirection and denigration to mask how little he knows about the sport.  See above, where evidently he thinks he knows more about the sport that a colleague of this blog's host.  I've never heard someone denigrate STEVE HASKIN before.  That's a new low.

Of the other possibles for the BCC, I see no other horse that I have confidence in getting 10F at Churchill.  I don't see HDG as a true 10F horse, and most of our handicap horses seem to be happiest at 9 furlongs and will be crawling home.  The other horse Coolmore nominated to the BC, Await the Dawn, is another that could be running by our "top" (and I use that term lightly) horses in that long CD stretch.  He's by Giant's Causeway and has stamina to spare in the female family, will both Mill Reef and his son Shirley Heights, and the tail female family is descended through Roberto.  If SYT skips the BCC and Await the Dawn comes, that's my horse.   (See, even I can make a pick!)

13 Sep 2011 7:56 PM
oso7

I think Coolmore needs to check with the ultimate authority in racing, Afleetalexforever, as to what they should do with their horse.  He is Mr. Answer Man.  

P.S. AAF~loved your veiled, sly message about "wipes" in your earlier posting.  For those who don't understand the reference, my identical twin sister suffered a severe brain injury on April 1st.  She is now partially paralyzed on her right side and is unable to walk.  So AAF asked me on the TVG board if I were keeping enough baby wipes on hand, now that she is finally home.  TVG gave him a lifetime ban for that little remark.  What a pity.  He is so missed there, but good to know Jason still allows him an open forum to put his nonsense on for all to see.

13 Sep 2011 8:27 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Footlick

   No I haven't talked to them. It's a double reverse psychology with a twist statement, on the rocks.

13 Sep 2011 8:39 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Footlick

   First of all he belongs in The Arc. From that point it would depend on how he comes out of the race. He could pass the BC completely or go for The Classic, or The BC Turf. If he wins The ARC then they may very well go for The Classic. I have no idea how well he would run on the CD dirt surface but the timing could be a bit off and in my opinion AOB often has talented horses that aren't properly prepared or placed for the BC or Derby. I am not a fan of his. I think he is overrated, and that's how all of this started. And I'm not really over what he and the owners did to George Washington by throwing him to the wolves in the 2007 Classic (in which he broke down during the race and was euthanized) after having no races for a year. I'm not a fan of taking a stud out of duty and putting him back in racing anyway. I'm sure there must have been a success story or two but off the top of my head I can't remember any.

13 Sep 2011 8:51 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Footlick

   My mistake- George Washington was not off for a year, he hadn't raced on dirt for a year, and the 2007 was only his 2nd career dirt race I think. For some reason my memory was telling me that he hadn't raced for a year which was incorrect. Bureaucratic snafu. Still, at the time, prior to the race I didn't think he should have been entered in it, then the breakdown was horrible.

13 Sep 2011 9:01 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Footlick

   I still say that AOB will not win a BC Claasic or Derby. The future of my hat depends on this opinion so I don't take it lightly.

13 Sep 2011 10:50 PM
Footlick

Dr Drunkinbum- actually if he goes on the Arc it will be an afterthought as they have strongly mentioned the Champion for him.  The Arc is a tough race to win as an afterthought.  Many can't win even when pointing to it.  I think he should go in the Champion which was probably their first choice.  

As for your dislike for AOB and Coolmore, many have the same dislike.  But, as talented as George Washington was, he was not SYT.  I am not saying that SYT will win, but I also am not questioning the ability of a horse who runs 10 furlongs better than any horse in Europe and is a GR1 winner on two continents.  It was tragic about George Washington.  I don't know, unless you know first hand that the horse was unsound or was treated badly, that you can blame the connections, unless as I say you have proof of mistreatment.  His horses usually tail off in the fall, so that might be against SYT.

As far as horses taken out of stud and put back in training, Precisionist comes to mind, and though he had lost a step he was still competitive.

13 Sep 2011 11:12 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Footlick

   Since all of George Washington's wins were on turf at a mile or less, and his only career dirt race was a 6th in The Classic the year before and his current form wasn't his strongest I don't see how he belonged in The Classic in 2007.

14 Sep 2011 10:59 AM
AfleetAlexForever

I believe it’s called a difference of opinion Slew, that’s pretty simple, as I am sure that you have your opinion as I have mine.  Yours being a great deal farfetched due to the fact that again you can’t really use all five fingers to count the number of horses that have translated turf form to dirt form in winning the Breeders Cup Classic.  But I don’t have a problem being on record, As of right now if Havre De Grace doesn’t run in the BCClassic, Stay Thirsty would be my choice to win the race, if Gracie runs then he would drop to 2nd place on my list, followed by Twirling Candy and most likely Flat out or Tizway.  That’s a nice Superfecta right there.  

Grace

Stay Thirsty

Twirling Candy

Flat Out

Unfortunately after giving my opinion, I didn’t just leave it at that, I gave factual evidence, proof that gives indication that SYT would be up against it in the BCC, if he’s good enough to win it on dirt, then he can beat me as he won’t be on one ticket, that’s fine, I laughed all the way to the window with Blame taking down a horse that couldn’t beat the best field assembled on dirt last year, the sentimental favorite.  Swale, oh ye loyal follower of Oso, I have given you picks before, I gave you my choice for HOY in 2007, Curlin, in 2008 Curlin, in 2009 Raitch and in 2010 Blame.  I gave you your Derby winner in 06, and the Classic winner also, in Invasor, I also gave you the Cali hope of Lava Man and advised he would finish up the track.  Que the drums,  and he did as expected.  So I posted my choices as of right now, oh and let me give u my BCLC choices just in case there is a need to be on record there. If Grace goes in the LC which I suspect she wont, the exacta will be a cold, Havre De Grace and the up and coming talent in Royal Delta in second place.  This horse is living up to what I expected after seeing her romp at Saratoga last year, she is a serious filly.  

Oso, sad that you’re so vain to think that everything is about you, it really isn’t, the pity is that you keep bringing up the same things over and over again, get over it, be a grown up and stop being so obsessed, every other statement you make is AAF, its really got to stop.  Some people think you are better than all of this petty back and forth, prove it and move on.  

14 Sep 2011 11:32 AM
Slew

DR D:  Ahhh, sweetheart, I was all set to make you a lovely edible creative chapeau with salad fixings, topped off by cotton candy.  Now, me thinks inedibly with asbestos shingles topped with fiberglass.

Aidan O'Brien has won so many Group 1 races, they're too many to mention.  Since 2000, he's won 7 Irish Champion Stakes.  Dylan Thomas won the Arc. He's trained Gallileo, High Chaparral, Giant's Causeway, Black Minnaloushe, Johannesburgh, Powerscourt,Dylan Thomas, Mastercraftsman, Lillie Langtry, Misty For Me, etc.  I would think that SYT goes to the Arc OR the BC Classic, not both, and might be retired to stud after either.  They just paid $25 million for 50% of him, and Coolmore will earn more return with So You Think at stud.  

My problem with US bred horses is that they're sprinters and milers.  Only the AP Indy line is producing classic distance horses.  Havre de Grace can handle the distance, but she couldn't touch Snow Fairie. She may also not get past Tizway.  Goldikova is a favorite for the turf mile, but she's been beaten by Canford Cliffs.  I think To Honor And Serve is getting back to form, and may surpass Stay Thirsty, who I also like.  

If So You Think doesn't come to the Classic, I'd lean more heavily on Tizway or Apart, sooner than most of our 3 year olds.  

AAF: there have been 26 BC Classics.  I already mentioned French-bred Arcangues in 1993.  I should have also mentioned Raven's Pass(UK Gosden) in 2008, place horse was Henrythenavigator (UK O'Brien), show was Tiago, who all came in ahead of Curlin.  That's 10%...even though I do not need to use all my fingers to count them.  By the way, how many mares, in it's 26 year history, have won the BC Classic?  Oh...now don't choke on that one!  So it looks as though a Euro has better odds of winning than a mare...

I often favor longshots, but in the case of So You Think, he'll usually be a favorite where ever he runs....and I just can help feeling exhilarated every time I watch him run.

14 Sep 2011 3:03 PM
oso7

I guess Blind Luck just showed in today's workout that she is just fine.  I suppose Jerry Hollendorfer wasn't hiding anything after all.

Blind Luck (4-Year-Old Filly)

Your comments for this horse were: Ultra-impressive winner of the Hollywood Starlet

Date: September 14, 2011

Track: HOLLYWOOD PARK

Distance: Five Furlongs

Time: 59:20 Handily

Track Condition: Fast

Surface: All Weather Track

Rank: 1/39 - See the day's workouts

Btw, making fun of someone who is crippled in an accident is beyond getting a "petty" response from me.  You went beyond the bounds of decency and didn't even have the class to even apologize for it.    

14 Sep 2011 3:44 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Slew

  AOB is 4 for 63 in the Breeders Cup which is 6%. He's zero percent in The Derby. He's zero percent out of a bunch in the Classic. I'll pass on your poisonous hats and stick to felt if  a miracle occurs. It's chewy but with a beer chaser it won't be too bad. Thanks though.

14 Sep 2011 6:21 PM
Slew

DR D:  As much as I luv ya, if SYT takes the Classic...you'll have no choice.  You already chose a Derby concoction.  I get to choose the ingredients...which might have been sweet and tasty were it not for your poison pen.  (can't help myself.  SYT is simply too beautiful and strong to ignore....much like you and your wicked sense of humor.)

oso7: your tragedy has been severe, and I understand the urge to lash out.  However, AAF has proven to be insultingly subhuman at best, to everyone, and he's not worth your agony or time.  

15 Sep 2011 9:05 AM
Footlick

Dr Drunkinbum- I'm not going to go back and forth about this because you have an ax to grind wigh Coolmore and AOB.  In 2007 he finished third in the Eclipse at 10 furlongs.  The winner won by 1.5 lengths, but the Epsom Derby winner, Authorized only beat him by a head for second.  They felt he could stay the trip.  It is unfortunate that he broke down.  If you feel it was their fault because you feel he was ill-prepared and he didn't belong, then that is your opinion.

As of now you are getting your wish and SYT is being pointed to the Arc as long as turf conditions are suitable.  

15 Sep 2011 9:18 AM
Slew

DR D:  The chapeau will be edible since you won't have to take a bite.  So You Think will run in the Arc.  (I don't think 12f is to his advantage...whereas 10f would have been. But he's tied with Frankel for the Cartier HOY right now)

15 Sep 2011 9:26 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Slew

   Once they found out my hat was at risk they decided not to go for The Classic. I'm not seeing 12f as a problem for SYT. The surface condition is the key. He's ready to roll in the Arc and I'll be rooting for him.

15 Sep 2011 9:08 PM
oso7

DR D:  As much as I luv ya, if SYT takes the Classic...you'll have no choice.  You already chose a Derby concoction.  I get to choose the ingredients...which might have been sweet and tasty were it not for your poison pen.  (can't help myself.  SYT is simply too beautiful and strong to ignore....much like you and your wicked sense of humor.)

oso7: your tragedy has been severe, and I understand the urge to lash out.  However, AAF has proven to be insultingly subhuman at best, to everyone, and he's not worth your agony or time.  

Slew 15 Sep 2011 9:05 AM

Thank you, Slew.  I appreciate your advice.

Kate

16 Sep 2011 3:24 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

oso7

   I may not be an AOB or Coolmore fan but I am a So You Think fan and love his current form and will absolutely be rooting for him in the Arc. Fan of horse supercedes all else especially on French soil, ur grass. My dissatisfaction with AOB has nothing to do with his Euro campaigns anyway. It's his placement of horses in the U.S. that is sometimes absurd to me. Thanks for the kind words. I like chocolate but don't think you can make a hat out of unsweetened chocolate. I'll stick to felt should that unlikely event occur previously alluded to and binded by contract.

16 Sep 2011 3:42 PM
Slew

Hey Dr D: Arc and Classic...4 weeks apart...SYT just might be the super horse who can pull off the double.  I'll work on the hat.  Shaved dark chocolate would work, as long as you're nice to SYT.

Oso7:  Best to preserve your own sanity....no problem.

16 Sep 2011 7:34 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Slew

   I know, and I have suggested that as a possiblity ONLY if he comes out of the Arc very strong and raring to go again within a few weeks and gets to CD early and has numerous gallops and a bullet work on the dirt track, and I would only go for it as a double or if SYT is in the top three in the Arc, otherwise it's time for either a rest or possibly the BC Turf. It might be the BC Turf anyway depending on how he seems to like the CD dirt track. This is a valuable champion and it would have to be all systems go. I love the Arc move as sharp as he is. Don't get the Arc win and then ship him to CD three days before The Classic and run him in The Classic still tired from the trip and a tough campaign and unaccustomed to the CD dirt surface. And there is nothing wrong with an Arc and BC Turf double either. The Arc is really tough to win. That alone is a major, major accomplishment and we shouldn't expect anything beyond that. It's as tough to win as The KY Derby is. I can tell you one thing, it would be quite a relief to be able to eat a nice chocolate hat rather than a felt one. I may have bit off more than I can chew. Yikes !!!!

16 Sep 2011 8:49 PM
Slew

DR D:  My daughter is fond of saying, "If there's a heaven, it's made of Hershey's Special Dark."  I live about 100 miles from Hershey; my sons live much closer, and my grandchildren work at Hershey Park.  Yummmmmmmmmmm!

Workforce won the Arc last year, and came to the BC but decided not to run. And O'Brien has had SYT for this year only.  He was originally trained by Bart Cummings in Australia. I hope he wins everything, but most important, I pray he stays sound and does well.  He's just soooo handsome!

17 Sep 2011 7:55 PM

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