A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

Breeders' Cup pre-entries will be taken next week and final entries will be drawn just two weeks from now. Here's a look at the potential top 5 in some of the major races, with an educated guess at morning-line odds.

Classic

Havre de Grace and Uncle Mo gave the Classic a much-needed shot in the arm.

Havre de Grace (4-1): Might be cross-entered in Ladies Classic but Rick Porter has been clear all along that he wants Classic glory for this filly.

Uncle Mo (9-2): As sharp as he's ever been right now. But no horse has to answer distance question more than him.

Tizway (6-1): Missed JCGC but usually runs well off layoff. Major player.

Flat Out (8-1): Defeated Stay Thirsty in JCGC but he lost to both Tizway and Havre de Grace with no excuse. Has to step way up to be a factor.

So You Think (8-1): Aidan O'Brien has won five grade I races in the U. S. this year in 10 tries, so if he comes you have to respect. This horse just ran second in Champion Stakes on Oct. 15 and will be making dirt debut. Wild card for sure.

Ladies Classic

Interesting to note that the top five morning-line choices could all be 3-year-olds.

Havre de Grace (9-5): Would be huge morning-line favorite here if Porter wants to put up the $150,000 to cross-enter her.

Plum Pretty (3-1): If Havre de Grace isn't cross-entered she will be favored. Monster performance in Cotillion and she won Kentucky Oaks over this track.

Zazu (6-1): Hasn't done much wrong this year and defeated older horses last out. Might have won Kentucky Oaks if she hadn't had a bad trip.

Royal Delta (8-1): Soundly beaten by Havre de Grace after breakout performance in Alabama.

It's Tricky (10-1): No match for Plum Pretty in Cotillion but pace set up will be much different in this race. She defeated her in CCA Oaks at 1 1/8 miles, don't forget.

Turf

The last few years this has been one of the least intriguing BC races. Injuries to Paddy O'Prado, Cape Blanco, and Acclamation assure this will be the case again in 2011.

Nathaniel (7-2): Not sure what John Gosden will do after so-so effort in Champion Stakes. Three-year-old is still one of the favorites if he comes.

Sarafina (9-2): Seventh as the favorite against males in the Arc, she is being pointed to the Turf according to her trainer.

Sea Moon (5-1): Another 3-year-old European who has a big chance over here.

St. Nicholas Abbey (6-1): Group I winner in England (beat Midday) this year could be a major factor if O'Brien sends him.

Treasure Beach (8-1): Not a bad effort in Canadian International. O'Brien may send the 3-year-old too.

Winchester (10-1): I guess the yielding turf was his excuse in Turf Classic, but he won same race over soft course in 2010. Still, he's top U. S.-based threat.

Filly & Mare Turf

Like the Turf, there are some unanswered questions about which Euros are coming.

Midday (3-1): Nearly always fires. Fourth against males in Champion Stakes was only time off the board since 2008. Won this race in 2009, missed by a neck last year. She's the one to beat.

Stacelita (4-1): Two decisive grade I wins in the U. S. As sharp as can be right now.

Nahrain (6-1): Prix de l'Opera winner is on the fence.

Announce (8-1): Second in Prix de l'Opera and a group I winner prior to that. Also unsure about her status at this point.

Dubawi Heights (8-1): A good second to Stacelita in Beverly D., Won Yellow Ribbon last out. Four-for-five this year.

Mile

It's disappointing that Frankel isn't coming. Nowadays, if you've run five times in a season you've "done enough."

Goldikova (9-5): Second in her last two but three-time defending champ still absolutely the one to beat.

Gio Ponti (9-2): Just when you think he was finished he turns in a spectacular effort in Turf Mile. Always a factor.

Courageous Cat (8-1): Beaten by a neck Turallure in Woodbine Mile but he is healthy and a major contender.

Strong Suit (8-1): English-based 3-year-old is a head away from being unbeaten in his last three. Oct. 8 win at Newmarket was quite impressive.

Turallure (10-1): Won three of his last four including a stakes at Churchill.

Sprint

A lot of solid horses but they really haven't separated themselves.

Big Drama (4-1): I guess he's the morning-line choice based off his win last year. Missing Vosburgh wasn't ideal but who else are you gonna pick over him?

The Factor (9-2): Was primed to inherit role as favorite until he ran a clunker in Ancient Title. He's too fast and Baffert is too good to disregard.

Euroears (6-1): Vosburgh is a complete toss after being taken out of the race early.

Amazombie (8-1): Has been at his best on natural dirt. Demands respect after breakthrough win in Ancient Title.

Smiling Tiger (8-1): Third in this race last year. Has finished ahead of Amazombie twice recently. Will be fresh.

Dirt Mile

Tough to gauge this race right now because some of the top contenders are still being considered for other races.

Twirling Candy (4-1): If they go with Dirt Mile over Classic (which they should), he will probably be favored.

Jackson Bend (6-1): Mo trounced him but he still ran well and is contender here.

Trappe Shot (6-1): Also under consideration for Sprint but one-turn mile at Churchill makes more sense for him.

Shackleford (10-1): Seems to be heading in the wrong direction but cut back and return to Churchill might be the answer.

Caleb's Posse (10-1): Connections still undecided on Breeders' Cup but his body of work this year and strong closing run makes him a contender, if he goes.

Sidney's Candy (10-1): If he makes the BC, this is logical spot. Turf Mile wasn't bad.

Juvenile

One of the few races where we will likely have a heavy favorite.

Union Rags (2-1): A perfect 3-for-3 and getting all the hype after Champagne romp.

Creative Cause (4-1): Norfolk win was just as impressive as Union Rags' Champagne. And it was around two turns.

Drill (5-1): Should learn something from Norfolk. Loss might have been best thing for him.

Hansen (10-1): Not guaranteed a spot, but if he gets in he will be the wild card. His two wins were scary good.

Dullahan (10-1): Breeders' Futurity winner does his training at Churchill for Romans, though he lost both starts over the track.

140 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Frank J.

Pfft..Mo at 9-2, please..Should be some value to be found again this year, I'm gonna think THAS will be above 10-1 which will be nice, Cozy Rosy will hit the F&M Turf board and hopefully Dullahan will also.

18 Oct 2011 12:54 PM
papillon

thanks jason, this a very helpful overview.

what are your thoughts on hansen being able to get in at this point? 50/50? less than 50% chance?

also, is game on dude out of the classic? i was actually pulling for a mildish upset by him, but if he doesn't run, i'll pull for so you think to make the rest of the field look silly.

i'd love to see shack redeem his year with a win in the dirt mile--but i'm skeptical. his indiana wasn't horrible but...he just looks like he's over it all, ya know?

and i'm pulling for gio to win this year. i'm also pulling for midday. this is my year to root for the old guard (i know goldi is old guard too but it'd be a bigger deal for me for gio to win).

my other picks: zazu, big drama, and hansen. i hope hansen gets in--he's a rock star!

18 Oct 2011 2:42 PM
Draynay

Mo will go off at 2 to 1 at best.  mo is much the best here.

18 Oct 2011 2:50 PM
papillon

oops, just saw that you were only commenting on top 5, which probably explains game on dude's absence, sorry.

i think maybe i'll also try for an all white breeders cup and bet something on all the of pale greys--hansen, zazu turallure, the factor (if i squint and the sun hits him just right). j/k

18 Oct 2011 2:53 PM
Weekend

Classic-So You Think

Ladies Cl-Zazu

Turf-St Nicolas Abbey

F&M T- Sarafina

Mile-Strong Suit

Sprint- Euroears

Dirt Mile-Calebs Posse

Juvenile-Hansen

These are my mid priced player picks. If these were the odds at post time, I would probably ladder bet all of these horse's at 6-1 or higher. I find these horses show the best value in relation to recent form, class and respective morning line odds.

18 Oct 2011 3:19 PM
Carlos in Cali

... I'm hoping people empty their wallets and bet heavily on the Mare,Tizway & Uncle Mo in the Classic.

Where's Game on Dude? Anything above 7-1 on him and Flat Out is a gift.THAS's odds will be even higher.. $$$$!

Smart money will be on Zazu in the BCLC.

Why is Baffert running both of his headstrong speedsters in the Sprint?.. counter-productive, IMO.

Goldikova is beatable this year,not sure it'll happen though.I wouldn't take anything less than 5-2 on her.

Dirt Mile: Twirling Candy belongs in the BCC,he'll be heavily favored in this race.Sydney's Candy has a better shot in the Mile than in here.IMO,he might be the lone "F" on the grass.Then again he has regressed under Pletcher's care.Both Tapizar and Wilburn will be tough to beat in here and both will be overlooked... $$$!

If the 'White Corvette',aka Hansen runs in the BCJ it's game over.They won't catch him,he should be faster on dirt too.He'll be my 'lock' of the weekend and I'm all in if he's 8-1 or higher.Freak!

18 Oct 2011 3:30 PM
Footlick

As far as I know Sarafina will go in the BC Turf as the want 12 furlongs for her.  Racing Post reported she was a go for the BC Turf.

18 Oct 2011 3:59 PM
Jason Shandler

Footlick: Steve made me aware of that earlier and I mover her to the Turf. Thanks.

18 Oct 2011 4:07 PM
Footlick

No problem.  I thought maybe they changed their mind.

18 Oct 2011 4:19 PM
NASCAR PRO

If Mo and ST are in the classic they have to run as an entry, so I would have to say two for the price of one, will be betting favorite.This is not just any entry you have a close to the pace and midpack runner both with a lot of hype.I will be very surprised if this entry is not favored in the classic,at about 5-2 to 3-1

18 Oct 2011 4:25 PM
AfleetAlexForever

MO is much the best at a mile, would be the second choice behind Twirling Candy in the race he actually should be running in.

18 Oct 2011 4:27 PM
Jason Shandler

who: They do not run as a coupled entry in the Breeders' Cup.

18 Oct 2011 4:28 PM
Weekend

HMM, I was wondering about Sarafina also in the Turf, that is why I picked her above if she was running in the F & M Turf.

After reading what Carlos wrote, I went and read about Asmussen, and he is sending Tapizar to the Dirt Mile. Interesting. He like's CD.

18 Oct 2011 4:35 PM
Smoking Baby

 Jason.  AM I GLAD TO HEAR FROM YOU!!! (rough day)  

No clue who's going to win it but this year's Dirt Mile has much more quality and is more intriguing than the four? they've run so far.  The two long turf races are yawners in my opinion.  You totally nailed it with what you wrote about Gio Ponti.  He is indeed "always a factor."  Win or lose come Cup day you'll know he's there.

18 Oct 2011 5:26 PM
josh

Flat Out at 8/1 still? This horse has the highest figures at 1 1/4 miles! You'd be foolish not to bet on him at this price. Also, you'll be lucky to get Union Rags at 2/1, more like 9/5 or 8/5. I think with the absence of HDG in the distaff, Zazu will be at lower odds. Probably 4/1 second choice.

18 Oct 2011 6:00 PM
Afleet Treet

Jason,

I am curious to know who YOUR pick is for the juvenile...I just LOVE Creative Cause and would love to see him win it for Mike Harrington who is an all around great guy and horseman! Who's your pick?

18 Oct 2011 6:29 PM
Kyri

No Winter Memories in the F&M Turf? I don't think one bad race is enough to toss her out.

18 Oct 2011 6:47 PM
trackjack

Thanks Jason, we needed this, back to reality.

Agree that Union Rags will be the shortest price.  The others should all have good value with some very accomplished runners.  I agree with others, Zazu can't wait to get back to that long CD stretch.

Classic: THAS/Flat Out

Sprint:  The Factor

Ladies Classic: Zazu

Great day of value, looking for some juicy boxes.

18 Oct 2011 6:55 PM
Ranagulzion

Carlos,

Interesting post.  Nobody gets between Tizway and Uncle Mo (class wins the day my friend).

I agree with you about Sidney's Candy: he'll be my pick in the turf mile (Goldi and Gio the dangers).

In the Juvenile, Union Rags is versatile enough to stalk Hansen and blow by him up the lane (no stopping this one Pal).  More anon.

18 Oct 2011 7:01 PM
dryice55

lets see....

Juvy- I'll take a chance with Hansen. He hasn't yet shown the versatility, or beaten the class of horses Union Rags has, but that doesn't mean he can't do either of those things. His wins were freaky and I like the price, so ill take a shot with him.

Sprint- I know has last race was a bust, but I still like The Factor. His Pat O'Brien  was very impressive, and this horse has obviously shown he has alot of talent.

Dirt Mile- I like Jackson Bend. His performance in the Kelso was one of the best of his career. This horse seems to be running well at the right time, should give a big effort in the Mile. However, I still feel there's a SLIGHT chance that if they stretch Mo out to a 10F work in Sunday, and he hits the wall after 8 or 9, they run him in the mile. If he runs in the mile I think he's way the horse to beat, you saw what he can do in the Kelso.

this brings me to.....

The classic- Flat out has a good price, he ran a big Gold cup, he loves the distance and could run a big classic. Mo and HDG are going to go off at really low prices. Either of them could do something really special, but there just isn't that much value there. My pick is going to be Stay Thirsty. He runs huge in the Belmont, and the Jim Dandy and the Travers, than he has one bad race on a weird surface in the Gold Cup,

and everyone forgets about him. He loves a mile and a quarter, I know there are still questions about if he's a Saratoga specialist, but I think he has good shot.

18 Oct 2011 7:12 PM
Householder

Liked Plum Pretty's fractions last out.  23:11, 46:47, 1:10:70 finishing up in 1:41:19.  She's got a head win at 1 1/8th over the track.  You have to go back to when ZAZU was a two year old to find the last time she finished off the board.  Her Kentucky Oaks was her coming off a two month lay off.  Her Clement Hirsh and Lady's Secret round her into top form.  Not convinced she wants to go this far and her trainer is impossible to read.  

How about Awesome Gem in the Classic?  Why? because someone has to win this.  Plus, he's ran in the 1 3/4 Marathon before.  Pretty cool.  

Don't see Game On Dude firing outside of Santa Anita.  But if he does, Baffert puts in right on the lead with Mo and HDG.  If he can sit 2-3 off (which he can't) he would be in the garden seat as he can, like HDG, get the distance.  I see him as the most likely blow up the toteboard with his early pressure on the favorites.    

18 Oct 2011 7:19 PM
Karen in Texas

I'm hoping Hansen makes it into the Juvenile field as well. If he can transition from synthetics to the Churchill surface as favorably as Animal Kingdom did, then he should really be able to do something special.

18 Oct 2011 7:32 PM
NASCAR PRO

OK thanx for the info,if thats the case then I will have to wait closer to race date to see if I will even bet the race.

18 Oct 2011 7:32 PM
Old Timer

Jason, why no mention of To Honor and Serve nor Ruler on Ice? they are two live horses.

As for Uncle Mo, he may be a monster and run off like Ghostzapper did, but I am betting that he 'll be needing some oxygen at the eighth pole.

18 Oct 2011 7:37 PM
Slew

I'm sticking to the exacta of So You Think and Havre de Grace in the Classic.

I still have a soft spot for Jackson Bend in the mile unless they make the right choice and put Uncle Mo here.

I love Big Drama, BUT he's run only twice this year and I'm worried about him.  If Ben's Cat gets his fee together, I think he's a strong contender.

Juvenile...Union Rags.

Ladies Classic...I like Zazu, but I wonder if Winter Memories might enter.

F&M turf..Midday.

Turf..I like Sarafina and Nathaniel.

18 Oct 2011 7:51 PM
Jason Shandler

Afleet Treat: I never picks races until I see entries but I also like Creative Cause better than Union Rags.

Old Timer: I wasnt trying to pick winners herel just list the top five betting choices. THAS and ROI will both be outsiders. That being said I do like THAS chances.

18 Oct 2011 8:02 PM
Coldfacts

Breeders’ Cup Classic

Uncle Mo that contested the distance of 9F once and finished third make the top 5 and To Honor and Server does not. I know the argument he was sick when he ran in the Wood.

To Honor and Serve has contested the distance of 9Ffive times with three victories and two third place finishes. A classy colt with suspect stamina make the top 5 of a 10F race and another just as classy and bred to run all day does not. THS has the two fastest 9F times heading into the BCC and a UM that has run a fast 7F & 8F race make the top 5 and he does not. A 6YO horse that won his last race in a pedestrian time for 9F and has been sidelined by sickness make the top 5 and a colt that set a stakes record for 9F does not. A horse that a filly and an 8YO horse defeated makes the top 5 and the most improved 3YO colt in training does not.  There must be a mistake!

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

F The regally bred Alpha finished second to Union Rags in the Champagne after a troubled five wide trip and cannot make the top 5. There is a significant bit of information that has been ignored in the exclusion of Alpha from the top 5 i.e., debut races.

Union Rags: Debut 5 1/2F (Did not contest a race over 7F until 3rd start)

Creative Cause: Debut 5F (Did not contest a 7Frace until 3rd start)

Drill: Debut 6F (Unplaced) (Did not contest a 7Frace until 3rd start)

Hansen: Debut 5 1/2F(Did not contest a race over 7F until 3rd start)

Dullahan: Debut 5 1/2F (Unplaced) (Did not break his maiden until 5th start)

Form the above it can be noted that Alpha’s winning debut was at 7F. This is not the preferred distance for 2YO debutants. The fact that he won it so convincingly is a testament to his class and ability. If Union Rags is the joint top 2YO with Creative Cause, how can Drill who was convincingly beaten by CC make the to 5 and Alpha who was beaten by UG didn’t make the cut? If Alpa’s trainer has not done anything crazy subsequent to the Champagne, he will win the BCJ easily. Bad exclusion

18 Oct 2011 8:09 PM
Coldfacts

Old Timer,

Ghostzapper’s gate to wire victory was achieved at Lone Star Park. Black Tie Affair achieved a gate to wire victory at Churchill Downs but the fractions were very slow. Black Tie Affair was sired by Miswaki sire of Arch winner Urban Sea and dam sire of BC Turf Classic winner Daylami.  Uncle Mo sire Indian Charlie has not such record of siring top class routers. It is therefore unlikely that Uncle can go gate to wire.

18 Oct 2011 8:20 PM
Coldfacts

RANAGULZION,

You endorsed the comments below

“Nobody gets between Tizway and Uncle Mo (class wins the day my friend).”

Below are details of Tizway’s last three 9F races:

2009 Whitney:  finished (4th) 1:48.12

2011 Charles Town Classic: finished (3rd) 1:51.13

2011 Whitney: Finished (1st) 1:52.43

The class you endorsed is not represented above. This 6YO was successful in only one of his last three 9F races and you expect him to win a tough 10F race. His sole win at 9F on what was admittedly a slow track was pathetic.  Is this the horse you really expect win America’s premier race?  Let me reiterate, no horse older than 5 has ever won the BCC and Tizway has not exhibited the requisite class to break this trend. You are far more knowledgeable than the comments you are endorsing.

Uncle Mo is a classy 3YO but history will be against him just as it was in the Triple Crown races. Street Sense won the BCJ and Derby something the skeptics said was unlikely. Those who were of the opinion that his feat would reoccur in the short term were not paying attention to my posts. That’s not how thoroughbred history is written. Arch was the sire of the 2010 Breeder Cup Classic winner Blame. Uncle Mo’s dam was sired by Arch. What is the likelihood of Arch being the dam sire of the 2011 BCC winner? Impossible form a historic angle. Arch, son Kris S was the dam sire of the 2010 BCC runner-up Zenyatta. Arch has had his day in the BCC and it will not recur in the short term. End of history lesson.

18 Oct 2011 9:08 PM
Paula Higgins

Uncle Mo or HDG in the Classic, Goldikova in the Mile, The Factor in the Sprint, Zazu in the BCLC.

18 Oct 2011 9:48 PM
tcc

How about Awesome Gem in the Classic?  Why? because someone has to win this.  Plus, he's ran in the 1 3/4 Marathon before.  Pretty cool.

Householder 18 Oct 2011 7:19 PM

Headlines:

Awesome Gem to miss Breeders' Cup.  

18 Oct 2011 10:12 PM
Derby day '11

There goes Dray again being clueless...2/1 on Mo are you kidding. He won't hit the board. He doesn't want any part of 1 1/4. IF he had the right pace scenerio he could get a piece, but you need to listen to Baffert after Game on Dude won the Goodwood. To summarize, he basically said 'Dude needs the lead, and we'll send him to the front and see where that takes us. So let's see if he sends, and Mo, THS, and a few of those attend the pace then look out... the closers will run right by them all...

18 Oct 2011 10:37 PM
Coldfacts

For those who are undeterred by Uncle Mo’s post sickness record heading into the BCC, the COLD FACTS below are worth noting.

Breeders Cup winners and the distances of their last three races preceding the event:

2010 - Blame (9F, 9F, 10F)

2009 - Zenyatta (9F, 8.5F, 8.5F)

2008 - Raven Pass ( Reported to be a miler)

2007 - Curlin (11F, 10F, 10F)

2006 - Invasor (9.5F, 10F, 9F)

2005 - Saint Liam (9F, 9F, 9F)

2004 - Ghostzapper (7F, 9F, 9F)

2003 - Pleasantly Perfect (10F, 8.5F, 10F)

2002 - Volponi (9F, 9F, 10F)

2001 - Tiznow (9F, 10F, 10F)

2000 - Tiznow (9F, 9F, 10F)

2011 - Uncle Mo (9F,7F,8F)

Uncle Mo has contested two races in six months. One at 7F and the other at 8F; based on the data above it appears the colt does not have the requisite foundation heading into the BCC. We all know he is classy but he will have run the races of his life to win. Is this asking too much of a colt who was very sick not too long ago? Flashy 58 seconds works are no substitute for seasoning. There is world of difference between 8F and 10F. The classy Bernardini had a problem free preparation heading into the BCC and he was beaten by Invasor who missed his prep race and trained up to the BCC.  Invasor could have afforded to miss his prep as he had three races at either 9F or longer before his setback. I hope Uncle Mo’s connection know what they are doing and have not allowed their emotions to get in the way of commons sense

19 Oct 2011 12:38 AM
Matthew W

Smiling Tiger and Amazombie both will be right there--do not leave either off your pick threes!

19 Oct 2011 12:46 AM
Matthew W

Tizway is the dark horse--he missed race/work, but he's a Tiznow who got good late--sorta like, well, Tiznow! Also Well Armed, his races this year have been above the rest--his Whitney was a romp, in what, to me, was the hardest 1 1/8 race in several years--so many in here with the distance questions--I'll take the Tiznow!

19 Oct 2011 12:50 AM
Matthew W

Based on the questionable stamina of the whole field, I would say Ruler On Ice is a legit contender from off the pace...

19 Oct 2011 12:53 AM
NASCAR PRO

Coldfacts I agree with your statements about distance races and THAS, he was born to route.I disagree with you on the juvenile contestants and their races being mostly sprints leading up to the race.The 2yos run and win their races mostly because they are faster and quicker than their opponents.They, for the most part really dont know how to ration their speed like an older horse does.Their are not many 2 yos that fall back to last and sweep by the field consistently which in this case(because of lack of races)would be two races in a row.They win their races by being close enough to the front that they can sweeep by the field after the last turn or be close enough to win the last jump at the wire.Any juvenile contender that has raw speed has a good chance in the race because once that colt gets to the front by himself with no pressure the rest of the field has no real closers.Having said that the juvenile has producded winners that were favorites or low single digit odds because of their dominance over their opponents.I will look for colts that have superior speed figures over their opponents because in 2yo racing its all about speed and not about rationing speed or race tactics.

19 Oct 2011 7:34 AM
2:24

Is there any confirmation on what race Caleb's Posse will run in?  I think he is a serious contender in the Sprint or Dirt Mile.

19 Oct 2011 10:28 AM
2:24

Coldfacts - I don't know how successful you are in wagering, but I sure do enjoy your posts.  I also like THAS which your cold facts should tell you means he'll finish up the track.

19 Oct 2011 10:30 AM
Dennis

Well,I guess it's that time again

when we all speculate on these breeders cup races..as for me speaking for myself, I will say

I am still awaiting the final entries, and the pretenders, and legit runners, everyone that enters these races wants to win especially the prestige, and purses, and all the hard work completed, just to be elegible to run,so until the bell rings and the gates open, I am dealing a level field..yes at this point, I would say every horse has a legit chance to win.. in the race that they are entered!Anyway here is the hard part...some horses are stand-outs,while some are not..some, improving just like the Kentucky Derby, and I just cannot say right now who is going to beat who!Really I just cannot predict just now, very hard to say the Horse I like..the Classic..trainer Larry Jones,stated recently (I am just the Messenger) he said, Uncle Mo will find it hard to win at 1m/4

as he is a good horse, and training well, but he said when Uncle Mo won his last race, he only defeated 4 horses, and also shut off the only challenge to him, in the slop (Zito Horse)

and Uncle Mo was the best horse that day, when he defeated 4 horses

and that performance although a win, did not make him a giant killer, and he is not afraid of Uncle Mo, as he will defeat Uncle Mo, if he ever runs in the classic!!this is from Lary Jones the trainer of Have De Grace!

it's up to you guys now to start fighting over this!I have no comment on this, I really dont like any horses this year breeders cup.the only horse I think I finally will like is" Goldikova"

my reason is this horse like to shop in America, and gets good value for her money!!also she eats well, enjoys her vacation whenever she comes here, and with a great trip, she have a great chance.

now, I leave this over to all you experts to try and figure out these breeders cup races.

can anyone advise me about this horse?(1) OVERDRIVEN-the last time I heard of him, his trainer Pletcher said he was not acting right, and he apparently went into oblivion?

he supposedly was a nice race-Horse

the next Uncle Mo? missing since Saratoga!expensive horses seems to

run 1-2 good races and then they

flop..whats happening..

I do believe expensive horses only needs feed, oats and water(laugh)

grooming, good training regimen, and this is the ticket..but most times, I do believe some guys are breaking things and then trying to fix it again..if it's not broken dont try to fix it..that is the answer to most of everything..

have great days and keep laughing.

19 Oct 2011 11:36 AM
Alexaso

To Honor And Serve is easily the most overrated bet of the breeders cup. Tizway is no Invasor. So You Think is the most overhyped horse of the year. Uncle Mo has a legit excuse for his only loss...his coat and muscle looked spectacular recently. Havre De Grace is in great form, and Flat Out is the only real winner at the classic distance.

19 Oct 2011 12:10 PM
furlongs

Matthew W.-

Tiznow won the Classic as a 3 year old and then came back to win it again as a 4 year old. So I have no idea what you mean comparing the 2 horses getting good late?? Tizway is a very nice horse with a whole lot of problems throughout his nice career as a racehorse. This year he seems to have put some nice races together but I still can remember that BC race he threw in last year at CD where he looked like a horse to beat in the Mle Dirt race and really never fired. When I look at this horse and him missing his last race he just is to much risk at the odds he will be in Classic. I would be VERY suprised if he wins at 1 1/4 at CD. Good luck at the races everyone!

19 Oct 2011 12:18 PM
Draynay

Game on Dude is no speed demon.  Check his fractions and you will see Mo will have no problem stalking him and to mention THS in the same sentence as UM is just plain silly.  I heard all this garbage before in 2004 with Ghostzapper.  He was a miler blah blah blah.  Uncle Mo right now is every bit as good as Ghostzapper was in 2004.  UM is just too talented for these horses.  UM wins with ease and there is nothing Havre can do about it.

19 Oct 2011 12:20 PM
furlongs

Draynay-

I do not pick horses until I see the final post draw and who indeed is in and who is out. But two things I know.. #1 UNCLE MO doesnt run first or second in the Classic just like he didnt win the triple crown. #2 It will be funny as hell to have you lose again (4rd year in a row) because a filly/mare beat your horse in the Classic!!

19 Oct 2011 12:33 PM
furlongs

The only thing I will say about So You Think is  he is a TRUE 1 1/4 horse. Winning like 5 times at Group 1 level at that distance. If he takes to CD dirt he could be a tough horse to beat when you look at some of the horses in here and them getting a true 1 1/4 on a cool eveing at CD. I have not looked that deep yet I try to wait until posts are drawn but I know if the others come up short distance wise So You Think will not. And like it or not from what I am seeing this is not the best Classic ever assembled in past years.

19 Oct 2011 12:39 PM
2:24

Dray - "Uncle Mo right now is every bit as good as Ghostzapper was in 2004."  C'mon man! Stop it.  He is a great horse but please.

19 Oct 2011 12:49 PM
Householder

tcc.  Sorry to see that about Awesome Gem.  His win over Flat Out and Game on Dude was fantastic.

He is certainly the "feel good" story this year.  I hope he gets to go somewhere and eat nice grass the rest of his life.  

19 Oct 2011 1:28 PM
Householder

Game on Dude's fractions:

22.3, 45.28, 109.03, 134.30, 147.36

Uncle Mo better track because if G.O.D. fires and Mo goes with him he looks like his undefeated daddy did in the Kentucky Derby, like he'd been tied to the 1/8th pole!  

Lookin for this year's "Real Quiet" and not too sure G.O.D will fire outside of Santa Anita.

19 Oct 2011 1:39 PM
Weekend

Headache, now that is a horse to bet in the classic. We can do a Headache, Ruler on Ice (pack), Flat Out tri. If only we had Our Dark Knight to round out the sick Super....

19 Oct 2011 1:56 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

I think that you stick too slavishly to the statistics and fail to pay attention to those intangibles that statistics don't capture, such as the improvement in heath and wellbeing that a horse like Tizway has made this year.  The connections have said that this 6YO has never been in better health and his performances show it. I tell one thing, if this 6YO son of Tiznow reports to the starting gates, he will make Breeder's Cup history on Saturday November 5,2011 (Zenyatta's narrow defeat last year by Blame as a 6YO mare was enough to convince me of the 6YO myth).  Tizway will shatter that myth this year.

I took note of your argument on behalf of the 2YO colt Alpha and agree with everything except your conclusion, and I quote you "If Alpa’s trainer has not done anything crazy subsequent to the Champagne, he will win the BCJ easily".  Get serious now my friend and tell me, by what alchemy do you arrive at such a conclusion when Alpha was beaten five lengths ...five widening lengths in a romp by Union Rags in The Champaigne.  Do you really believe that the son of Bernardini can make up five lengths in the space of a month on a Dixie Union colt that could have won by ten lengths had he gotten a good trip in that race? Please ...give me a break!!! At this point in time Union Rags appears to be the biggest "soup" of the Breeder's Cup program.  

19 Oct 2011 2:15 PM
Afleet Treet

Householder,

Aweome Gem is actually doing pretty well...his issue was VERY minor but because he is such a grinder and works so hard and he LOVES what he does they decided to wrap up on him and let him spend some quality time down on the farm. Apparently if he comes off his vacation like he did last year in competitive spirits then they will bring him back as a 9yo next year....If not I will try to fight tooth and nail to get him to retire with me! Although I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him join the ranks of Cigar and the others at KHP. LOVE THIS HORSE! Spent several days with him when he came up for the Longacre's Mile and in th ebarn and on the track he is as honest as classy as they get!

19 Oct 2011 2:59 PM
papillon

@coldfacts: "Hansen: Debut 5 1/2F(Did not contest a race over 7F until 3rd start)"

your facts may be cold, but they sure aren't accurate.

hansen has only run two races--one a 5 1/2 f and the other, TWO WEEKS LATER, at 1 1/16 m. he won both by a ton of daylight under hand-rides.

does anyone have any strong feelings about the likeliness of hansen getting a spot?

19 Oct 2011 3:01 PM
papillon

zazu's out (shoulder inflammation)--there goes my all white breeders cup =(

19 Oct 2011 3:26 PM
tcc

Jason:

Churchill Downs:

Breeders' Cup: Pletcher plans to pre-enter Uncle Mo, Aikenite in Dirt Mile

19 Oct 2011 4:01 PM
Jason Shandler

Mike said they would cross-enter all along. But he will run in the Classic.

19 Oct 2011 4:44 PM
Householder

Afleet Treat.  Thanks for the update on Awesome Gem.  I have a special place in my heart for geldings like Well Armed and Best Pal.  I was glad to see the later finally got into the Hall of Fame.  

19 Oct 2011 4:59 PM
Johnny

BCC if THAS is over 10-1 will be hard to ignore, Great breeding getting good at the right time no?

I ask who are the great horses coming into the BC?

Goldikova I believe has lost a step.

It could be two days of bombers.

19 Oct 2011 5:03 PM
Householder

Creative Cause would be undefeated if it were not for the Del Mar "Rodeo."  The Giant's Causeway colt looked very good going around two turns on dirt for the first time in 1:42 and change.

19 Oct 2011 6:52 PM
Householder

I kind of like Bourbon Bay in the Turf.  He certainly has run a few 1 1/2 events.

19 Oct 2011 7:03 PM
Afleet Treet

Householder,

Me too! Some of my very faves have been older geldings such as Awesome gem, Lava Man, Evening Attire, Fabulous Strike, Perfect Drift, Better Talk Now, and of course Brass hat who I am thrilled to say I am going to see in KY when I am there on BC week! SO excited to see him, I hear he is a real sweetheart of a hrose too! I am sure my camera will be clicking a hundred miles an hour! :-)

19 Oct 2011 7:14 PM
Old Timer

Coldfacts, all that I said was that Uncle Mo MAY be another Ghostzapper. Neither you nor I can know that until the race is run. However, as far as betting, I am, like you, not putting my money on UM ... hence my comment that he will be needing oxygen when he hits the 1/8 pole.

Your point is well taken that he doesn't have much base with a 7 furlong and a mile race. I'd say he is more like Fusaichi Pegasus who won the mile Jerome after an absence and went off a big favorite in BCC but finished up the track.

19 Oct 2011 8:03 PM
Derby day '11

Dray...Dray...Dray. You will never learn. First of all, I wasn't comparing THS to the savior Uncle Mo, but simply explaining that there will be no easy lead for Mo (which he would need to win the Classic). And you say Game on Dude is not that fast. Please look above at Householder's post. He ran a 22.30 quarter, and a 45.28 half in the Goodwood, and oh he threw down a 1:09.03 for 3/4. I don't know what world you live in, but in America that is REAL fast for a mile and an eighth race. So let's see if Mo chased those kind of fractions where would he finish?? Probably not in the top 4.

  You also mention that everyone called Ghostzapper a miler...Well he was by Awesome Again who DID win the BC Classic so he was bred to go the distance. I don't think any Indian Charlie is bred to go a mile and a quarter. Also, if you remember Ghostzapper set reasonable fractions of 23 and change for the 1st quarter and 47 for the half, and 1:11 for 3/4. He was definitely much the best that day, BUT he did not encounter a true need the lead type that would have made his life miserable. There should be several horses who want to be close up, therefore Mo is in trouble. I am not doubting his ability. He is a great horse, but not one that you should so hastily christen a BC Classic winner when his hurdles are significant. If you are a true handicapper and gambler for that matter how could you take 2/1 on a horse that seems to be up against it from a pace and fitness standpoint. Two races, one at 7F and the other at a mile will not prepare him enough for this test.

  One final thing, aren't you the same person that said Dunkirk was a lock in the Derby a few years ago..he finished 11th. I'm just glad people like you will be throwing their money away on last year's 2yr old champ!!!

19 Oct 2011 8:11 PM
Draynay

Wow.  Some people on here are not real sharp.  Game On Dude came home in over 13 seconds his last race.  Not a good sign and check out his splits going 1 1/4.  Slow very slow.

19 Oct 2011 8:51 PM
Kevin

Seems like a lot of Breeders Cup horses getting injured this year. Will be very diluted races.

19 Oct 2011 9:18 PM
Coldfacts

Papillon,

You are correct regarding Hansen. It is just a case of copying and pasting minus the appropriate editing. I saw the error but I was not at a location where I could have posted a correction. There is no need for the ridicule

19 Oct 2011 10:21 PM
KY VET

You "friends" are bad trainers....so....how was mo's "BASE" when he ran a beyer of 118?      yea...1334/5th is a short horse!!! I cant believe you "friends" say this stuff! Who taught you these things? How about The horse? you go on these weird views. "he is short"   A horse cant run a 118 when he is short!   dang!

19 Oct 2011 10:51 PM
Coldfacts

RANAGULZION,

My colleague I continue to learn from you and for this and I must express my sincere gratitude.

“Tizway will shatter that myth this year”

MYTH- Definition (many) those chosen: -

A popular belief or story that has become associated with a person, institution, or occurrence.

A fiction or half-truth, especially one that forms part of an ideology.

A fictitious story, person, or thing

There is nothing mythical about COLD FACTS. These are facts that can be verified via various sources. It is not a popular belief; it is neither fiction nor half truth that no 6YO has won the BCC. Consequently, there is no myth to be dispelled. Many exceptional 6YOs have attempted this feat and have failed. Irrespective of the disclosure my Tizway’s connections he will not and I repeat will not win the BCC as he has not demonstrated that he is 6YO that is exceptional enough to win the BCC. The following horses finished second in each of Tizway’s last five victories: Flat Out, Rodman, Cool Coal Man, Half Metal Jacket, Da’ Tara. Flat Out is the only one worth mentioning and he was defeated by 8YO Awesome Gem and the filly HDG.

“If this 6YO son of Tiznow reports to the starting gates, he will make Breeder's Cup history on Saturday November 5,2011”

Zenyatta 19 consecutive victories preceding failed attempt to make history.

Cigar 17 victories from 19 starts preceding failed attempt to make history.

Pleasantly Perfect  Breeders Cup/Pacific Classic winner preceding failed 6YO attempt at BCC history.

Can you truthfully state that Tizway is any part of the above 6Yos?

ALPHA

“Do you really believe that the son of Bernardini can make up five lengths in the space of a month”

Some 2YOs improve over night. A particular race can transform a 2YO in ways unimaginable. Easy Goer defeated Is It True by more than five lengths in the 1988 Champagne run in the 3rd fastest time for the stakes. Is It True turned the table on the 1-5 Easy Goer in the BCJ.  That bid of COLD FACTS should be enough to answer your question.  Alpha had to be used early because of his sluggish start and this compromised his closing kick. This colt is bred for two turn races and I am of the opinion the CD surface and extra 100M will suit him immensely. The Champagne/BCJ double has occurred three times but never in consecutive years.

“Give me a break!!! At this point in time Union Rags appears to be the biggest "soup" of the Breeder's Cup program.”

I will not give you a break but I will give you Union Rags and take Alpha and hope he lives up to his regal breeding.  Easy Goer was considered to be the biggest soup and he lost.

19 Oct 2011 11:54 PM
JerseyBoy

From today's Sporting Life:

"Reports in Australia suggest So You Think will run in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs next month.

Part-owner Dato Tan Chin Nam is keen for his talented six-year-old to try his hand across the Atlantic after successfully plying his trade in Australia and Europe"

20 Oct 2011 6:56 AM
NASCAR PRO

Draynay if memory serves me Ghostzapper won the Classic and I think it was his next and last race he won the Met Met.Not to mention the race he dueled with Saint Liam in a 1 1/8 race GI at Belmont almost the entire race before putting him away.I followed Ghostzapper since before he won a 7f race at Saratoga in which he started to show the ability that would make him GHOSTZAPPER the next year.He was a late developer,unlike UM who was precious.I think Ghostzapper was the best US based horse even over Zenyatta in the last decade.UM has a lot of racing to do to get to Zappers level.

20 Oct 2011 11:48 AM
The Rock

Its too bad Customer Base isn't headed to the BC Juvenile Fillies. She's a monster. I was in the winner's circle for her effortless debut win at Del Mar and she did the same thing yesterday @ Keeneland passing her two turn test against allowance foes. Hope she points to the Hollywood Starlet.

20 Oct 2011 11:49 AM
trackjack

2:24:

I hope they run Caleb's Posse in th Dirt Mile.  This looks to be one of the most competitive races (this far out) and I think it sets up well for his stretch run.

20 Oct 2011 11:58 AM
NASCAR PRO

BTW I think and have always thought UM was a good enough stallion prospect after his 2yo season because of his precosiousness(excuse spelling)Repole has already made a breeding deal, you all have read about it.I think UM has to finish in the money(as in bettors in the money 1st,2nd,3rd) to continue racing.Good luck to all of you that think he will be allowed to get an easy trip in the classic like he did in the Kelso.If he wins he will need all his class and whatever stamina he has developed in training,because he only raced at 9f one time,and the connections are hoping that he was at least 5 maybe 7 lengths better than he showed in the Wood against 3yos.

20 Oct 2011 12:05 PM
datflippinrabbit

Dray,why is it nobody ever wants to agree with you,Uncle Mo cant beat a grey mule going 1 1/4 miles,this ain't the Kelso.

20 Oct 2011 1:00 PM
Giddyup

After last years Life At Ten fiasco my enthusiasm for the Breeders Cup is at an all time low. Hopefully, Havre de Grace and Goldikova can create some special magic because as Jason mentioned, this event needs a huge shot in the arm.

20 Oct 2011 1:54 PM
Draynay

2011 Uncle Mo = 2004 Ghostzapper

20 Oct 2011 2:25 PM
Draynay

Uncle Mo vs. Havre is as good as it gets.

20 Oct 2011 2:27 PM
woodshade

Jason,

 I'm sure you will be trying to beat the winners again. That what you always do on your THS. And you seem to lose most of the time. Whats up with that?

20 Oct 2011 2:28 PM
Jason Shandler

Woodshade: Put your money where your mouth is. Oh I forgot, Zenyatta is retired so you cant bet your $2 win tickets on her anymore. Never mind.

20 Oct 2011 3:13 PM
Scott C

Grey Papillon

20 Oct 2011 4:05 PM
furlongs

Dranay and I do not agree on much but I got to admit Uncle Mo vs Havre de Grace is as good as it gets!! Looking forward to my rail box seats in Section 315 no one in front of me to watch the races... Lets just hope no rain will be in the forecast for both days of racing!

20 Oct 2011 4:07 PM
NASCAR PRO

UM hasnt proven that he is as good as Barbaro or Bernardini routing as a 3yo.He had a brilliant 2 yo season.In 2011 he won the Timely Writer, 3rd in the wood(we will give him a mulligan in that one)2nd off the layoff to Calebs Posee in the sprint at Saratoga and finally 1st in a was it 4 or 5 horse Kelso.He has to WIN the Classic to have a brilliant 3yo season.Nuff said.

20 Oct 2011 4:20 PM
KY VET

If COLDCUTS didnt try to pass himself off as some kind of expert, i would not say anything...For years,he compiles data, then doesnt know how or what to do with it....he goes on quack theories...years ago i told people BERNADINI would be worth 100million..He was talking how his breeding wasnt good..he said a 12,500 sire (candy ride) was way better! NOW HE LOVES BERNADINI...I also posted I LOVED RAVENS PASS in the cup....He said no chance! never run on this track...He tells people that like a dubai horse that betting them is crazy(no dubai horse has ever won)...then the next year, he picks a dubai  horse....maybe on here, he has picked 1 right...but not on msn....He picked a horse because he had a swan neck! WACKY STUFF! like jan.foals suck...good racemares dont have grade 1 winners, breeding too many mares, weakens the sperm or something...he knows nothing about genetics.....quack quack!!

20 Oct 2011 5:07 PM
papillon

@coldfacts,

there was no ridicule in my post, only two statements of fact, one of which was also a play on your name.

but two things make your reply questionable--first, that you posted repeatedly after the post in question and before i posted but made no correction; and second, that hansen's inclusion destroyed the whole premise of you post, that only alpha truly has the class and ability for the distance.

the only reason i point this out is because, originally, your gaffe just looked an honest mistake, which is how i took it, but your retort to me makes it look a little bit like you were just talking out of you behind all along, so to speak, and didn't like be called on it.

FYI: ridicule = The subjection of someone or something to mockery and derision (i.e. what jason shandler does to zenyatta, the mosses, john sherrifs, and everyone who has anything pleasant to say about them)

(ps: this post would properly be characterized as "upbraiding").

20 Oct 2011 5:13 PM
dontelmeshome

Great idea Jason! I propose an easy BC contest for all to join so that we can all put our money where are mouths are.

Real simple, there are 15 BC races, we play win/place only. 1 point for place 2 points for win and prices are irrelevant except in the case of a tie in total points after 15 races. We reward consistent winning as opposed to (what might be considered) possible luck. Afterall, there is always VALUE in picking a winner and consistency in picking winners should always be the priority when judging a contest in handicapping over such a short duration of time.

We have just over two weeks,so anyone who wants to make it interesting,should be able to send a sawbuck ($10)to an address stipulated by Jason.  If Jason doesn't have your money by the end of Thursdays(3rd)buisness they play for free and your money will be returned (of course, everyone would be expected to send a postage paid return envelope as part of the entry fee).

As part of Jason's blog he could list the invested entrants on a Thursday nite blog before Friday's races. Final picks must be posted on blog by noon est. on Friday.

All very easy to track and contain within Jason's blogs.

Send it in or play for free. Either way, if you win, you have bragging rights and all can see just how good we all are or are not.  At least, that is, for the biggest day in North American racing.

20 Oct 2011 5:13 PM
Mike Relva

Jason

When will you ever lose your petty hatred for the mare? Time to move past the fact John "glared" at you last yr.

20 Oct 2011 5:59 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

I think I've made my point about Tizway. I respect your views, will give you the last word but I'll await the Breeder's Cup Classic to have the last laugh.

Regarding the comparison between Union Rags and Easy Goer, the latter had a harder race in his renewal of the Champagne than the former. Union Rags' hindered trip in the Champagne works out to his advantage because he only ran the last two furlongs and will have a lot in reserve to trample the opposition once again. His main dangers might not be Alpha but Hansen (if that one relishes the dirt).

20 Oct 2011 6:02 PM
NASCAR PRO

I just looked at the field for the Classic with odds on the DRF site,they left off ROI.I will say one thing about him(this is not a tout)I thought he reminded me of Mine that Bird because of my impression after looking at him on paper on Brisnet and watching in his races afterwords that he ran better on off tracks.In the PA Derby there is one thing that really impressed me about his race and it is not that this race was on an off track.It is the way Parx plays for routes and an important handicap that ROI overcame.I bet a lot of handicappers have overlooked this COLDFACT in the age of speed figure proliferation.

20 Oct 2011 6:10 PM
NASCAR PRO

IMO UM is the quickest animal in the Classic in the entries Ive seen.He will need to rate within 2 lengths of the lead or in the lead and then make a quick bold move before the last turn or on the turn and open up quickly and hope they dont catch him.If he is on the lead he will need to build a sizable lead so he wont be caught.I dont know how others view his race to win chances but I just dont see him grinding along and winning in the last 100 yards.

20 Oct 2011 6:15 PM
Criminal Type

Carlos, Hanson's Beyer in the Kentucky Cup on the polytrack at Turfway was an 80. Union Rags ran a 95 in the mud at Saratoga and then a 94 in the Champagne after having trouble twice. Hansen's wins were pretty impressive but he really did not beat much.

On the other hand, Union Rag's beat a very nice colt in Alpha but despite ColdFact's espousing of his virtue's im gonna take a pass on him at this point in time. I just dont think he is as good as Union Rag's. Rangulzion is right, Union Rag's would have been much farther ahead of Alpha had he not encountered so much trouble.

Creative Cause is my biggest worry. His latest beyer was a 98. Dullahan is heading for the BCJ Turf which he should dominate. Everyone's talking about Union Rag's time being slower then My Miss Auralia's (96 beyer) in the Frizette, but she did not have to overcome the trouble he had in the stretch. It's an excuse, not that his performance in the Champagne really needs one.

I really like My Miss Aurelia but she is going to have her hands full of Grace Hall in the BCJF. And I do love Empire Maker fillies.

As much as I love Havre De Grace, I hope So You Think wins the classic and really muddles up the HOY race. Another 6 year old horse, So You Think.

20 Oct 2011 6:19 PM
Criminal Type

Cold Fact's here's some more soup for you. Street Sense.

20 Oct 2011 6:31 PM
Householder

Some of the biggest busts have been Curlin (4-5) who sucked a cool million just out of the win pool, Music Note (9-5), and Careless Jewel who brought in a nice 5 race win streak to the Ladies Classic (2-1).  

20 Oct 2011 7:19 PM
Draynay

8 time G1 winner So You Think and Multiple G1 winner Havre take on Super Horse Uncle Mo.  Uncle Mo is simply more talented and wins big.

20 Oct 2011 7:27 PM
James Behan

2011 Uncle Mo = 2006 Brother Derek

20 Oct 2011 7:36 PM
James Behan

Householder: Add Riboletta (2/5) in the 2000 Distaff to the list of busts..

20 Oct 2011 7:55 PM
It aint easy being good!

dontelmeshome great post all you guys post and think your so good get in the $10 pool and then hide when you finish dead last! UM supporters please participate in this pool you guys think too much about speed rather than stamina! Speed never wins at 1 1/4th get it through your heads and get yoru $10 ready....whos in....JASON??

20 Oct 2011 7:59 PM
Carlos in Cali

Criminal Type,

To be honest,I really don't use Beyers or any other type of speed figures.I learned how to read the Racing Form at a very young age(I'm 40) before the advent of Beyers' figs.Pace,Class & likely trips is all I've ever gone by,.. Old School Style.

Re: Hansen

What he's shown in his 2 lifetime starts is something we rarely see nowadays,especially on synthetics.He went from a 5 1/2f dusting to a similar 1 1/16 cakewalk in a span of 2weeks all while setting solid splits and increasing his lead down the stretch.He's a Freak and if he takes to dirt like I think he will nobody that I've seen so far can run with him.Union Rags looks very good,but I doubt he'll be able to catch Hansen,we'll see..

20 Oct 2011 8:06 PM
Jason Shandler

I an not allowed to run contests on this site anymore. Too many legal issues I was told by the powers that be.

If someone else wants to run a contest I will direct people to your site.

Sorry, I cant do it.

20 Oct 2011 8:07 PM
Criminal Type

I wouldn't describe Hansen as a Freak, there are too many unanswered questions. The first of which is dirt and second, how will he do against really good horses instead of that bunch he faced in the Kentucky Cup. I got ten years on you but im not a gambler. I watch because I love the horses. Ive learned a lot over 50 years but I could care less about the form. I play a little now and again when I "feel" it, but thats it. Most of my knowledge is from being a good listener. You might want to go over to website of those Form people and Watch Mike W and Steve C's opinions of the 2 yr olds going into the Juvenile.

Remember, they called Eskenderaya, The Pamplemousse and The Factor freaks too.

20 Oct 2011 8:42 PM
spectacular bid

i cant believe so many people are going to let pletcher take there money.AGAIN. "MO" will be this years quality road. forwardly placed before stopping to finish near the back. then retired to stud and thus will be the end of another fast, but over rated 2 yr old champion that never had a chance at winning at the classic  distance

20 Oct 2011 9:35 PM
Stevebiscuit

James Behan, the difference is that Brother Derek could actually win a grade 1 during his 3 year old season. This year Uncle Mo is a grade 2 horse at best. He'll go down as by far the most overrated horse in history. He'll finish up the track in the Classic. Get the crying towel ready Draynay!

20 Oct 2011 9:52 PM
dryice55

you know, I don't think Mo needs the lead. Imagine if he tried to keep up with the :44 half set in the Kelso. If the pace is hot, he can sit off of it, the question is if he's going to have anything left down the stretch.

20 Oct 2011 10:26 PM
Matthew W

I took the filly last weekend at Woodbine--it's the era of the filly...odd Breeders Cup, really--somewhat gutted, seemingly weak...yet...those magical fillies! The all-timer, Goldikova, looking mortal if only vs her fellow Euros...ande Harve De Grace, who seeks racing immortality, as it were, by winning The Classic, a much tougher assignment than was her Woodward, which, I have contended, is no longer anywhere near it's status pre-Cup,  when The Woodward was the most important race in the country, for HOY, a defacto Classic, if Harve comes close she's HOY....the race that I am looking forward to the most, indeed the strongest race of the entire Breeders Cup, is the Juvy Turf Fillies--Elusive Kate/Gosden are top dog in Europe--by far--they look strond, indeed, but oh my, are they gonna have to be! Matz's filly, Somali Lemonade, my gosh, her last /8 the other day at Keeneland, look how she distanced herself from them--Sweet Cat had the perfect trip and she was handled easily--and lets not forget about the N Y bred Pure Gossip, who handled a very slippery wet turf at Belmont, and won like a special thing--you will get a price on her, they paid 100K to run her here--I would stake my reputation on this field, think we're looking at three, maybe four, future Gr 1 winners, I like the N Y  bred on top, but Somali Lemonade will be flying, that's for sure...Caracortado is the class of the turf sprint, if he gets a seam he'll win that race...Amazombie is the horse to beat in the sprint, and a deserved Eclipse horse, he's had a banner year and he looks great guns right now...was awed by My Miss Aurelia--but maybe she ran TOO good?....Weemissfrankie has closed at Anita, she'll get a better track to close on, you'll get a price, another N Y bred with a big shot...Union Rags looks like the real thing, Matz has another nice one...Ultra Blend is last Cali filly standing in Ladies Classic--check out her record, she fits...dirt mile Jackson Bend deserving fave but think he's beatable...as of now I'm on a straight Ruler On Ice--Uncle Mo exacta, MoMo running them all into submission, Ruler/Gomez picking them up late, at 9-1 can you dig it?!

20 Oct 2011 10:38 PM
Matthew W

Furlongs Tiznow was a late bloomer--and when he got good he got real good....cruising speed, stamina, tenacity--and a late blooming are traits of Tiznow and his prodginy

20 Oct 2011 11:01 PM
Bob from Boston

Jason, I will bet you 14.3 million dollars that it is legal for you to run illegal bets on your blog.  Here is the deal.  I can see that Draynay is very close to Uncle Mo.  Deep down, I feel it is sweet that Dray held out hope and waited for Mo even when things looked bleak.  It's great to see them back together again.  Ted from LA asked me to dedicate this song to BOTH of them.

www.youtube.com/watch

20 Oct 2011 11:08 PM
Coldfacts

Papillon,

It must be exceedingly clear that I am a simple guy. I saw no need to post a correction due to the fact that I acknowledged your correctness regarding the number of stars made by Hansen. Kindly forgive my simplicity.  

The point I was trying to make and obviously did a very poor job is fact that none of 2YOs in Mr. Shandler’s top 5 had tackled the demanding distance of 7F on debut. This is not a preferred distance for 2YO debutants. When a 2YO win this type of distance on debut and in the fashion that Alpha did, it should bear more weight than quick 5F or 5 1/2F sprints. This in no way indicates that he has a monopoly on a distance of ground. There are colts in Mr. Shandler’s top 5 that did not attempt a distance > 6F until there 3rd starts. In spite of this they are expected to out run Alpha who has clearly indicated that he is not a sprinter and 8.5F will be right up his street.

Hansen appears to be a nice colt but is short on pedigree. The projected finishing time for the colt that finished second to him in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile is a conservative 1:49 plus. His poor competition has given a false indication of his ability. His opponents might not have liked the poly track. I am not overly impressed with Hansen and believe he will be badly beaten in the BCJ. Dylan Thomas raced against Bernardini in the 2006 JCGC and was beaten by a city block because dirt was not his preferred surface. Subsequent to Dylan Thomas’ JCGC debacle he went on to win the Arch one of Europe’s most demanding races.

“but your retort to me makes it look a little bit like you were just talking out of you behind all along”

Sir, if you wish to continue meaningful exchanges between us, I suggest you refrain from using the type of language cited immediately above.  If the part of your body that you regard as your behind is capable of talking, then you truly have a unique possession. I suggest you rush to Lloyds of London and secure an insurance policy as it is a collector’s item.  There is no need for ruddiness as I can assure you it is not an arena in which you will be capable of effectively competing with me. If you took offence to the manner in which I responded to your post, kindly accept my sincere apology as no offense was meant.

I am of the opinion that we all share a common passion i.e., Thoroughbreds. Why is it so difficult for us share a common passion to be courteous to each other?

21 Oct 2011 12:13 AM
Coldfacts

RANAGULZION

Hansen appears to be a nice colt but is short on pedigree. His breeder gave his dam away and I think reacquired her for $10K. If his impressive victories are genuine and not as a result of inferior competition he should make the race interesting as he appears to be a need to lead type. With pace horses like UR and Creative Cause either chasing or contesting the lead, it will suite Alpha just fine.

Tizway has beaten mostly second stringer and will be facing some formidable 3&4YOs. I cannot see him winning. However, it’s a horse race and anything can happen.

On Jason’s pervious Blog you posted some kind words in my defense. Let me take this opportunity to thank you although I consider myself unworthy.  Let me also take this opportunity to request that you do not waste your time with a particular poster as he has repeatedly left no doubt that he is S on S. The individual lacks the capacity to have a meaningful exchange and is incapable of differentiating a stated observation from a policy position. I have in the past, against my better judgment tried to engage the individual but abandoned this effort as he made it exceedingly clear that he has major comprehension and communication deficiencies. In fairness to the individual, he must be given credit for my enlightenment to the fact that some heads serve only to separate the ears.  There are a lot of knowledgeable supporters of Mr. Shandler blogs who are more worthy of your constructive criticism and caution. In true thoroughbred jargon; You are flogging a dead horse..

21 Oct 2011 1:01 AM
GoldenBroom

How much pressure is on Todd Pletcher to get Mo fit for the distance or is all the focus going to Repole's push and drive for the Classic? Seems like it's all falling on the horse itself and the owner. This to me belongs right up there with his (now broken) winless Kentucky Derby run. It seems like a tough job, but doable esp with 2 horses in it that could be acting as one team. Wouldn't it be a HUGE training accomplishment for him?

Any trainers in the past (or currently out there) ...can they do it? Could they be doing it better?  You have an uber talented horse up to a mile and sixteenth for sure, ? longer, now over a medical condition (internal vs legs different?) but otherwise seemingly healthy now with 2 solid races under his belt and blistering workouts. Looked pretty unbeatable at a mile...maybe 1/16th...what trainer has, who could stretch this animal out another quarter? Who is a good 1 1/4 plus trainer and longer and is Pletcher adjusting anything or is he going to "duck" and let the horse and the owner take the hit? I hate to say it and as dangerous as it sounds...but I despise when good or great horses stop getting tweaked and are just expected to overcome on ability alone. Zenyatta's dirt in the face WTF reaction at Churchill last year...Curlin got a prep race in Dubai before winning the big one over there because his trainer said Curlin needs a practice run to get used to things...yet I don't think got one on Poly before he lost his bid to repeat the classic. Also jockeys sometimes stop using the clocks in their heads and loose track of pace or lack of it, tend to get into traffic and expect late kicks to always get them there. Very frustrating. I really really hope Mo, HDG and Tizway have good, smart rides and all are trained to 110% of their trainers ability and they are pulling out all the tricks of their bags.

Read something about the guy that trained Ghostzapper and how he just KNEW they couldn't let (Roses in May?)  press them the whole way or both horses would go down...

How bout some daily training updates Bloodhorse especially from Churchill as soon as the contenders arrive or if they are already there...get on it!

21 Oct 2011 7:14 AM
Weekend

Golden, you can go to CD and keeneland website and look up barn notes and workouts if you want info on the horses in the morning. I will be out there a few days in the coming weeks watching works and stealing Dale Romans donuts... Going to Keeneland tomorrow, it is going to be a great day. Raven's Run m/l favorite is Mizdirection, Jim Rome's horse, at 4-1.

Coldfacts, on the courtesy thing, it seems some have an agenda to just be negative and hateful, so I leave you with this. Wish in 1 hand, and sh** in the other, and see which one fills up faster!

21 Oct 2011 11:08 AM
tf81

NO love for the NY Bred Giant Ryan in the Sprint?  7 in a row including g1 and g2?  Seems to have some courage as well.

21 Oct 2011 11:37 AM
Stevebiscuit

"Uncle Mo is simply more talented and wins big."

You see, that's your problem Draynay, you oversimplify. Horse racing is far from a simple sport to handicap, but judging by how good you are at picking losers it doesn't surprise me. You're guaranteed to get an unfair price on Uncle Mo yet you pursue him anyway. You'll never come out ahead in this game betting horses that are all hype and of zero value. Don't worry Dray, some of us are just slower at picking that up. I didn't learn that rule until I was 12.

21 Oct 2011 11:54 AM
Draynay

What a bunch of garbage.  Last year with a track HEAVILY favored for closers (just ask Dakota Phone) Uncle Mo pressed the pace going 1 1/16th like it was nothing and did it in a very fast time.  Now a year later and a much bigger and stronger and faster UM will step on the track and many can't figure out if he can now run 300 more yards.  Really ?  Havre can't win at 1 1/4 and the Turf horse from Euro can't run on dirt and Tizway is a miler.  Don't worry about Mo worry about the others who have to keep up with him.  Name another horse in the race that can run a 135 mile and go on ?

21 Oct 2011 12:27 PM
Stevebiscuit

If last year's Breeders Cup was so biased towards closers, then why did just about every winner have the lead at the top of the stretch. The only reason Dakota Phone won was because of the blistering pace Morning Line set. Tizway is a miler? He's won at a mile and an eighth, Uncle Mo hasn't, so if he is a miler then Mo is a sprinter. Havre De Grace missed by a nose at and mile and a quarter against a horse, who at the time was the best in America. Dismiss So You Think at your own risk. If he likes dirt, which I suspect he will, he will be the horse to beat.

21 Oct 2011 1:49 PM
Householder

Draynay another horse in the race that can run a mile in 135 and go on is Game on Dude.  He ran 134.30 last out coming off a 45 second 1/2 mile.  Doubt he comes out that quick going 1 1/4 and he will be at Mo's neck.  

The last race Uncle Mo won over a mile was a year ago and certainly not against older multiple graded stakes winners!  He needs to be pointed toward the BC mile. He'll have to crawl through the early fractions to have any chance of getting the distance.  Time to turn him into a deep closer and hope the filly burns up along side G.O.D.  

The filly may be long gone against this bunch.  

21 Oct 2011 3:07 PM
Householder

There is a pretty extensive list of horses that got beat.  Now granted some were hurt during the Breeder's Cup, but nonetheless lost.

Afleet Alex, Best Pal, Dayjur, Point Given, Turkoman, Silver Charm, Lookin at Lucky, Precisionist, Spend A Buck, Housebuster, Flawlessly, Serena's Song, Easy Goer.  

21 Oct 2011 3:22 PM
Draynay

Biscuit you and householder are rank beginners.  Householder please don't quote me fractions from the SA speedway going 1 1/8th check out his fractions going a 1 1/4 and notice how he stops and can't run the last 200 yards.  Game on Dude?  You can't be serious.  Biscuit if you can't figure out NO horse won on front last year and most came from WAY off the pace then I can't help you.  Speed was dying all over the place but you believe what you want.  Mo stretching out with his speed is a easy handicapping angle.  Havre couldn't beat a filly going a 1 1/4 and Tizway hasn't had much luck at going 1 1/4 and looks even worse when running at Churchill.  Mo is the easy pick here.

21 Oct 2011 3:30 PM
Draynay

Stevebiscuit do me a favor and tell me who your pick will be for the Classic and then after the race tell me how many lengths he or she finished behind Mo.  Thanks in advance.

21 Oct 2011 3:32 PM
Weekend

Dray, you making it up to Churchill for the BC?

21 Oct 2011 4:13 PM
Ranagulzion

Carlos,

Regarding your handicapping philosophy I quote you " ...before the advent of Beyers' figs.Pace,Class & likely trips is all I've ever gone by,.. Old School Style"

From my observation you should've added " and Seattle Slew/AP Indy sire pedigree" to your formula (LOL).  Its nothing to be bashful about, except that it hasn't been serving you very well all year. Good luck my friend.

Golden Broom,

I assure you that Tizway has one of the smartest, most tactical riders around today in Rajiv Maragh: he will not fail for assistance from the saddle.  Good luck.

21 Oct 2011 5:04 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

What will happen is Mo's losing the Classic and you will react the obvious..... making excuses or laying low for a couple weeks till you think we forget.

21 Oct 2011 5:27 PM
Stevebiscuit

Draynay, So You Think will finish ahead of Uncle Mo. So will Havre De Grace, Tizway, To Honor and Serve, and Ruler On Ice.

21 Oct 2011 11:52 PM
Stevebiscuit

Mike Relva, after Uncle Mo finishes up the track Draynay will pretend like he was on the winner's bandwagon all along. I can't wait to hear his excuses for the vastly overrated miler Uncle Mo. He might have a shot against Quality Road, who last time I heard has yet to cross the finish line.

21 Oct 2011 11:59 PM
Pedigree Ann

Talent alone can win races up to a mile, sometimes even 9f. But history has shown it takes talent AND fitness to win dirt classic-distance races. (Not to mention a genetic predilection for longer distance races.) Superior talent can carry a horse a furlong or so past his optimum distance, eg. Dr. Fager. Is Uncle Mo a Dr. Fager? Is he even a Precisionist? (The latter won G1s at 10f and 6f=BC Sprint in the same year, for you youngsters.) Nothing he has done so far makes me think he is. Fast wet-track Belmont times have fooled people for the all the 40 years I've been following this sport.

Just remember, what a horse does at 2 can be an illusion if the horse has an advantage of early maturity over his opponents. As his contemporaries catch up at 3, he can find himself unable to handle them at the same distances at which he beat them at 2. Kafwain is a prime example of this and one could add War Pass to the list.

22 Oct 2011 10:41 AM
Draynay

Last time I checked a win ticket for Quality Road at the Classic is worth the same as a win ticket on the State Restricted Poly Champion.  

22 Oct 2011 10:58 AM
Stevebiscuit

Last time I checked you can still collect when you have your horse to hit the board. There's no payout for dead last. You spend so much time trashing Zenyatta(who finished 30 lengths ahead of your pick, the one you said was the next Ghostzapper) you seem to forget she beat the best you East Coasters had to offer save for one lucky horse. If she was such a terrible racehorse, why bother reminding everyone unless you're simply trying to convince yourself? To think you almost got beat by a horse who couldn't run on dirt and only against allowance horses, must be pretty embarrassing! Take it from Allen Jerkens, "they will look at the Classic the same way they look at Man o’War getting beat”, or John Nerud who said Zenyatta is "equal or better than any mare I've ever seen". And if you choose to ignore the opinions of two of the greatest trainers ever the how about your pal Mike Repole who said "If I had owned Blame, I probably would have been the only owner in America who would have told you Zenyatta deserved to be Horse of the Year". Time to face facts Draynay, you'll always be swimming against the current on this one. Belittling Zenyatta isn't only unfounded, it's also an attack on a horse that helped racing return briefly to the days of Secretariat or The Bid, when racehorses could still gain national attention. All she ever did throughout her magnificent career was gain attention for a sport that desperately needed a shot in the arm. If that's not enough for you to show just a little appreciation for what she did then you must not be a true fan of horse racing.

22 Oct 2011 2:02 PM
Jason Shandler

Steve: zzzzzz....wake us up when you're done.

22 Oct 2011 2:16 PM
Criminal Type

So much for credability, Dray, That European Turf horse that can't run on dirt is from AUSTRALIA.

22 Oct 2011 4:19 PM
Betsy

So Shackleford makes the list, but not Wilburn, the horse who beat him so handily?

Beware Alpha.......he'll be an overlay

22 Oct 2011 4:40 PM
Mike Relva

STEVE BISCUIT

That's exactly what will happen.

22 Oct 2011 5:55 PM
Stevebiscuit

Jason, wake me you pick a winner. It feels like last November since that happened!

22 Oct 2011 6:52 PM
chucky

Drayno still hyping these milers eh?

Uncle Slo Mo will show how you do it after 8.5 furlongs, he would do a Quality Road in the classic or a Rachel in the Personal Ensign.....both couldn't even bend their knees...

ahhhhh the hyping of inferior horses.

22 Oct 2011 8:54 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Yeah, of course! Your QR really blew past the Mare in last yrs Classic, didn't he?

22 Oct 2011 9:18 PM
Ranagulzion

Pedigree Ann,

Uncle Mo was an exceptional 2YO talent not merely because of early or comparitive maturity: the manner of his victories,the final times and his Beyer speed figures should convince you. He could very well turn out to be of similar calibre to Dr Fager or Precisionist and deserves a mulligan for his early season run, bearing in mind that his 3YO campaign was hampered by illness. I have no doubt whatsoever of Uncle Mo's potential.  What he did in the Kelso shouldn't be viewed as a muddy track abberation given the obvious class that this colt had displayed in his Juvenile campaign as well as his brilliant run in the King's Bishop (no marks lost in defeat off the layoff).  It's sad that once again the Breeding concerns will likely rob us of seeing what he's really capable of next year since in all probability he'll be retired after the Breeder's Cup but I would be thrilled to see him land the Breeder's Cup Clssic although at this point I think that Tizway stands in his way (I could change my mind by race day). Uncle Mo to me, certainly has shown that he's of the calibre of any of the 3YO winners of the Breeder's Cup Classic including Raven's Pass,Curlin,Tiznow,Concern,AP Indy,Unbridled,Sunday Silence and Proud Truth. Having been in the game for a comparible time as you I can tell a class act when I see one, usually a while before most other observers acknowledges it.  UNCLE MO IS A CLASS ACT. I really wish for him to stay sound and hang around for one more season to convince all the doubters.

22 Oct 2011 11:23 PM
furlongs

Ok here is the deal Uncle Mo is a very talented horse but in no way is he Curlin, AP Indy, or Sunday Silence!! WOW that is all I can say... he is more talented then the others you listed.

23 Oct 2011 10:10 PM
furlongs

Union Rags wins one of the WORSE Juv. races in BC history! But I will take Alpha any day and twice on Sunday come next season as a 3 year old compared to these... WHERE IS THE FAST 2 year olds???

24 Oct 2011 7:50 AM
Ranagulzion

furlongs,

All I'm saying is that Uncle Mo has shown me that he's of the same calibre as all the other 3YOs that have won the Breeder's Cup Classic in the past.  He's not yet had the opportunity in the amount of races he's competed in to accomplish what Curlin, AP Indy or Sunday Silence has accomplished.  Remenber he's only lost two out of seven starts and had good excuses in both losses, besides all his wins (except for the Timely Writer) have been super impressive.  Give the colt a chance and restrain your penchant for talking down a star performer.

Regarding Union Rags, I would say to you and all other doubters that you've only seen the tip of the iceberg with respect to the talent of this colt. He's bred to really blossom in time for the Kentucky Derby and other Triple Crown races next year, being from the Northern Dancer line, inbred top and bottom to the great class and stamina-producing influence Hyperion(track-record setting Epsom Derby winner ans son of English triple crown winner Gainsborough). An interesting thing about Union Rags is that was a very lazy, sleepy yearling, a distinct trait of Hyperion. Further more, Union Rags has Nijinsky, the last English Triple Crown winner and sire of Kentucky Derby winner Ferdinand, as the broodmare sire of his second dam Tersicorist(a Group 2 winning stayer). If your a true racing fan and connoisseur of the sport you would only wish for this colt to stay healthy and sound in order to have a great Triple crown treat next year. I know its early days yet but this colt has all the attributes (tactical speed, push-button gears,versatility, class and stamina laiden classic pedigree) to be a super star on both Turf and Dirt.

Alpha is also a very promising colt but being from the AP Indy/Bernardini line he may not be ready in terms of his overall development (including mental rediness) for the rigours of the Triple Crown, even though he is showing vast potential at this stage.  I've seen it so often and said it so many times that many people may think that I'm don't like horses produced from AP Indy or Bernardini(nothing could be further from the truth). I'm just realistic and honest about my observations and infrences.  Alpha will be very good around mid-summer, in time for the Travers but chances are he will not be a strong Derby contender.  I fear the connections may force the issue with these type of colts and get them injured. Anyway just one fan's opinion.  

24 Oct 2011 11:59 AM
furlongs

RANAGULION-

And what I am saying is he has beat ABSOLUTLY NOTHING his entire career. I do not care what beyers he posts. Look at the horses he has beat, Jackson Bend! That horse will not win the BC Dirt Mile. I think Mo is a talented horse always have, but I also think he has been over-rated his entire 3 year old career. He was without a doubt the best 2 year old out there but his 3 year old season has been a HUGE disappointment and no one should be able to argue with that. If Pletcher thought the horse could really win the Classic why wasnt he in the JCGC at a distance of ground, the correct way to prep for the Classic?? I will tell you why. They needed a Graded win as a 3 year old before he retires to stud and that Mile race is perfect for a horse like him. The truth is the horse was pointed for the Dirt Mile as soon as he came back and ran huge off the layoff from the farm. The ONLY reason he is running in the Classic is because of the number he threw up in the Kelso, his time as well as his beyer. Simple as that. Rapole said it best after the Kelso. He would hate to win the Dirt Mile with Mo and run 3rd in the Classic with Stay Thirsty when he can take a shot with Mo in the Classic as well, and win the race everyone wants to. Now as time has gone by they have tricked themselfs into thinking they can win the race because they are 100% commited to it. But first actions  mean everything and when a race like this comes around (Classic) everything must go perfect to win it. Ask Al Stall last year he said it best. That to win a race like this you have to have no bumps in the road all season. Well Mo has had a bunch of bumps from the time he finished the BC Juv. so I will pass on Mo at 1 1/4 off the seasoning and races he has run to get him in the gate in the Classic... I could be wrong and if I am I have no problems saying so. But to the subject at hand. For you to compare Mo that has never won a race beyond 8.5 furlongs to the horses you listed is crazy. Now I agree he does have more ability then some you listed but until he wins the Classic or a Grade 1 race at 1 1/4 he will never compare to the likes of Curlin, AP Indy or Sunday Silence. That is not just a fans opinion but that is a simple fact.

24 Oct 2011 2:40 PM
Ranagulzion

furlongs,

When a horse runs in the richest and most prestigeous events for his age group and wins impressively, the argument that "he beat absolutely nothing" is redundant because in this case, the connections of Uncle Mo have no control over the quality of his rivals that enter the races and its not like they were ducking anybody. Besides, you are berating the competition in last year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile on hindsight. At the time the Breeder's Cup Juvenile looked like a pretty formidable line up.  Its just that several of the potentially very good colts subsequently suffered injuries and fail to make the Triple Crown challenge, therefore your argument is fallacious.

Your point about the JCGC is also unreasonable.  The timing wasn't right for a horse like Mo, coming off the 7 Furlongs King's Bishop.  The Kelso was a very good decision by the connections and the Breeder's Cup Classic timing is just about right for him to tackle Grade 1 competition at 10 Furlongs IMO.  We'll see how it goes. I hope that you wont be too embarrased to report back here after the Breeder's Cup.

24 Oct 2011 11:06 PM
dryice55

You guys, the safe play would probably be to run Mo in the mile, but the classic is the best choice. It sounds nice to go safe this year and than shoot for the classic at 4, who knows what's going to happen at 4? He might not run, even if he does what if he gets hurt and doesn't make it to the Breeder's Cup next year ( god forbid)?  I agree the he has alot to overcome coming off a mile prep. However, how many horses have run 108 Beyers as a two year old?? How many horses have come back from from Cholangiohepatitis  the way he has?? This could be one of most talented colt we have seen in a long time!! If he wins the dirt mile, he'll go down as a nice miler and probably win the 3 year old colt eclipse. He deserves more than that, he's 100% right now, he has the chance to become one of the GREATS in the classic, he deserves that chance THIS YEAR, who knows what next year is going to bring. He's a risky bet, sure there are questions, but I'm  elated that this colt is going to get his chance to prove him self!! Right now he's regarded as a really nice colt, on November 5th he could become a legend!!!

24 Oct 2011 11:32 PM
Weekend

There is one horse that is starting to look more and more enticing to me, but I doubt I will get the odds that I want. This colt would be Strong Suit, who is coming into his own right now. I think he will be the biggest competition to Goldi in the Mile. His connections are very high on him right now. Another interesting prospect is Misty for Me in the F&M turf. Coming off a lackluster third at Leopardtown, she previously beat Midday by 6 legnths, and also beat Together, who just won a Grade 1 at Keeneland 2 weeks ago. Getting Lasix is not going to hurt them either.

Now, looking at the Juvenile, this is going to be interesting. On one hand, we have Union Rags, who is looking like Uncle Mo last year coming into the Juvenile. On the other, we have Creative Cause and Drill coming from Cali to give a serious challenge. Over this weekend at Keeneland, I was priveleged enough to meet some folks with an interest in Hansen, and although he has not run on dirt, they are very high on this 2yo. I see no clear cut favorite and think odds will be 4-1 or higher on the favorite.

BTW, Keeneland was gorgeous on Saturday. Could not of asked for better weather. I was in the paddock for the 5th race, and Larry Jones had a horse running. I talked to him for a quick second about AAF, and Jones acknowledged he knew AAF and that he would be in the winner's circle if the mare wins the BCC. NAHHH, just kidding. I did talk to him though and wished him luck in the BCC. One thing about keeneland, as I have said before, is follow the smart money. Had a $43 winner, a Henny Hughes that was 20-1 m/l, went out 8-1 right after the odds came out, and went off at almost 21-1. He won by 3. Wish I would of know that prior to the p3 that I bet.

Anyway, I will be at the track in the mornings next week watching works, so I will try to give any insight in how the horses look. Havre is working on Monday. Plum Pretty looks tough in the L/C. Tapizar is looking good, and EUROEARS ran a 56 3/5 yesterday. WOW. On twitter, someone said that Baffert threw the stopwatch down after the work b/c it was SO HOT! HA. Good luck! Have a nice week

25 Oct 2011 10:40 AM
furlongs

I will have no problem reporting back after the Breeders Cup. We are all wrong in this game alot more then we want to be so why would I shy away from coming back to these blogs. And we all have the right to look back at what Uncle Mo beat that is why they have a racing form. He has beat nothing and never won a race beyond 8.5 furlongs and that was a year ago. His odds will be way to low to justify playing him in the Classic based on what he has done and who he has beaten. That is why the call it gambling isnt it. You bet Uncle Mo all you want and TRUST ME I will be here the day after BC and I will not be the one saying "I told you so" just not my style...  I say bet more it only maks the odds better on everyother hors in the race!! Good luck.

25 Oct 2011 11:41 AM

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