Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

No trainer in the history of horse racing has won more races at Churchill Downs than Bill Mott. Over a career that has spanned more than 40 years, Mott has won 640 races under the Twin Spires, including two of his six Breeders' Cup victories (Escena 1998 Distaff and Unrivaled Belle 2010 Ladies Classic).

Though Mott's stable is considerably smaller than it was when he was on top of the sport in the 80s and 90s, he will be coming to Churchill Downs with one of the strongest hands he has held in some time. The 58-year-old trainer is pointing five horses to the World Championships on Nov. 4-5, and though none of them will likely be favored, four of them have good chances at pulling off victories.

"I think we're in with some pretty good chances this year," Mott said. "Everyone that we hope to run has some kind of chance. We've had some success here before, so we'll see how it goes."

Mott's top chances may lie with Birdrun in the Marathon and Royal Delta in the Ladies Classic, but he also will have live semi-longshots in the Classic with To Honor and Serve and Courageous Cat in the Mile. Drosselmeyer, being pointed to the Classic, will be an outsider.

All five of Mott's Breeders' Cup contenders have arrived at Churchill and all worked over the track last weekend. Assuming Havre de Grace continues to point toward the Classic, Mott's top chance from an odds perspective lies with Royal Delta, who will probably be the second choice on the morning-line behind Plum Pretty. The 3-year-old daughter of Empire Maker won the Black-Eyed Susan and Alabama this year, and enters off a distant second to Havre de Grace in the Beldame.

"It looks like three of the top horses in there will be 3-year-olds, so I think we belong," Mott said. "We've liked her all along and she's gotten us here. She's doing very well right now and we won this race twice before here."

Courageous Cat may have been the most pleasant surprise of the year for Mott. Second to Goldikova in the 2009 Mile at Santa Anita, the 5-year-old son of Storm Cat is the best he's been since that race after battling injury problems over the last two years. He has won a pair of graded stakes this year including the grade I Shoemaker Mile and fell a neck short in the Woodbine Mile last out. If anyone is going to deny Goldikova her fourth straight BC Mile win, it could be him.

"His only blemish in three races was by a neck," Mott said. "And maybe he saw the front a little too soon on Woodbine's long stretch. He's seems to be doing as well as he was (in 2009)."

To Honor and Serve has also overcome injury problems and may finally be back to where Mott wants him. A leading Kentucky Derby contender coming into the season, he was a distant and disappointing third in Florida's two major preps and came out of the Florida Derby with a strained suspensory ligament. After 4 1/2 months on the sideline and a poor comeback effort, the son of Benardini is back where Mott had him as a juvenile when he won a pair of grade II races in New York. His latest win in the Pa. Derby was very impressive.

"This time last year we thought we had a horse with a real chance at the Triple Crown races. We thought the stars were lined up," Mott said. "We hit a bump in the road in April and he wasn't able to make it, but after the time off he's come back very well. His last two races were dynamite.

"He's peaking at the right time, but he still has to answer the distance and class questions. He has to step up and beat older horses, but we feel like he is coming into the race in the right direction for sure."

Drosselmeyer, last year's Belmont Stakes winner, will be a longshot in the Classic but Mott said the race has the potential to set up in his favor. He is coming off a strong runner-up effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

"WinStar wanted to lean in this direction (instead of the Marathon) based off his last race," Mott said. "He certainly earned a chance off of that and with him we know the distance is not an issue. With the fast pace scenario that could be shaping up, you never know. Everybody that worked here last weekend went well, but he went the quickest of all of them."

Birdun is expected to be one of the favorites in the Marathon. He has two stakes wins this year and even though he ran sixth in the JCGC last out, Mott likes his chances.

"We didn't think we were holding a loaded gun going into (the JCGC), but he needed a race. He's doing well and with the race now a mile and six furlongs for the first time it's pretty wide open.  We'll give the Bird a shot.

116 Comments

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trackjack

I like THAS's chances in the Classic.  This race is wide open and THAS is coming into this sitting on a huge race with a good price.  

IMO Drosselmeyer should be in the Marathon, the longer the better for this guy.  

21 Oct 2011 1:48 PM
It aint easy being good!

Jackpot thanks Jason I think it takes a truly special horse to beat older horses that are more seasoned. I needed an older horse with no distance limitations what do you guys think about Drosselmeyers chances?? To slow? His last workout says he is ready to throw down!

21 Oct 2011 2:31 PM
Draynay

Mott has one winner Birdrun for sure.  The others are running for place money.

21 Oct 2011 3:33 PM
Ranagulzion

Courageous Cat in the Mile (turf) is Mott's Breeder's Cup silver bullet.  Royal Delta and To Honour and Serve have good shots in their respective races.  Drosselmeyer is too slow for the Classic and Birdrun will falter close home IMO.

21 Oct 2011 4:55 PM
Runfast159

Well I almost always root for the Mott horses, I like the guy.  

While I think Drosselmeyer should be in the Marathon I also know that some of the Classic contenders are not proven or as effective at the distance so why not?

With Blind Luck and Zazu out of the Ladies Classic I think it's a showdown between Plum Pretty and Royal Delta so I give the latter Mott's best chance of success over the BC weekend.

I've always really liked Courageous Cat but I still think even a lesser Goldikova could outkick him to the wire.  

21 Oct 2011 5:17 PM
NASCAR PRO

I think Mandella won 4 races on one Breeders cup card, has any trainer tied that or surpassed it.I am going to ask JS the blogmaster to see if I can get a reply.Also how many starters did Mandela have to get those four wins.

21 Oct 2011 5:38 PM
Paula Higgins

ITA that Royal Delta has a very good chance with Zazu out. THAS has some chance, but not the best chance. I don't see Courageous Cat beating Goldi-ever.

21 Oct 2011 7:32 PM
Slew

I really like To Honor And Serve, and feel that he is the best of the Bernardini's out there...and his stride is so reminiscent of his sire.  I think he'll finish in the top 3 in the Classic, but my heart remains with So You Think.

I like Royal Delta but she really wasn't up to it in her last race.  With Zazu out, crazy as she might be, I sort of like It's Tricky, though you never know how she'll act or act up.

Drosselmeyer always surprises me because I never really expect much from him.  He might surprise me again, but it's just too uncertain.

21 Oct 2011 7:58 PM
Sylvester

Paula be serious.  If Plum Pretty runs the race she ran in the Cotillion then all those other fillies including Zazu if she were there would be racing for 2nd.  She'd give HDG a challenge though she'd lose.  She'd beat Zenyatta though.

21 Oct 2011 8:08 PM
Ranagulzion

Jason,

I can't see the wisdom of Winstar insisting that Drosselmeyer goes in the Breeder's Cup Classic.  He has zero shot at winning the race, based on past performances, whereas in the Breeder's Cup Marathon he should be the favourite to win.  A victory in the Marathon would certainly look very good on his Stallion Resume in terms of being a future source of stamina, having already won the Belmont Stakes in 2010. I just don't get their logic as a breeding enterprise.  Drosselmeyer in the Classic may possibly be able to get up for fourth place but what value will that add to him as a future stallion?  Beats me.

21 Oct 2011 8:24 PM
furlongs

Serious Question??

Who is the biggest chalk eater on these blogs? DRAYNAY or KYVET??

22 Oct 2011 12:15 AM
furlongs

By the way anyone posted this over the winter right after the TIMLEY WRITER STAKES if you like to see DRAYNAY root home UNCLE MO click this and have a look... trust me you will laugh!!! LOL

www.youtube.com/watch

22 Oct 2011 12:18 AM
Matthew W

Nice vibe at Keeneland--nice product, too--they know who they are, a stepping stone racetrackj, that's what a synthetic track is--and their grass racing is first rate--Somali Lemonade, a two year old filly, recently prepped for the Breeders Cup at Keeneland--she's lookin real good! Tom Jim Rome's filly, Mizdirection goes in the feature--Gomez needs to be patient--no need to go from out there--wait, then open up around the turn, and make the winning move--open up and outlast them--but only after you wait into the far turn--THEN move over/open up on them--that filly is capable of doing just that, no way will she fetch 4-1, more like 5-2, and I'll take it....they were correct in keeping her short and giving her the opportunity to win, which is what she did--they have done it the right way, so far--I can guess Jim is nervous--I'd be confident! Perfect draw, if she handles the sod over there she cruises...I would call Bill Mott the East Coast version of Ron McInally, a guy you're never dissapointed with winning or beating you--class! Corageous Cat made Caracortado look ordinary out here--no reason he can't contend this year in the Mile...his three year old filly Royal Delta has inherited a favorite's role in Ladies Classic--Mott is a player this year, in a big way!

22 Oct 2011 3:02 AM
NASCAR PRO

Sylvester if Zenyatta had more chance in this years Classic she would win it now that she has a start over the track.Zenyatta was an extremely smart animal to conserve her energy and rate at the back of the back and then she ALWAYS ran when the race was to be decided.If she ran in this years version there would be a chance to make history an all female exacta.

22 Oct 2011 8:58 AM
NASCAR PRO

BTW there are no Cigars,Ghostzappers,Saint Liams,or Tiznows or Zenyattas in this field.

22 Oct 2011 9:02 AM
NASCAR PRO

Oh I almost forgot there are no Curlins.IMO Alvarado moved way too early on Curlin or he would have won two classics.

22 Oct 2011 9:03 AM
Footlick

Can there be one blog where Zenyatta is not mentioned??  

22 Oct 2011 10:28 AM
Coldfacts

RANAGULZION

“Drosselmeyer is too slow for the Classic”

My dear colleague you have just deflated my long shot balloon with your statement above. Drosselmeyer is the horse I intend place a substantial wager on in BCC. In fact, he will be in all my exotics as I am very confident he will be right there with the more fancied contenders. Why I am I confident this 4YO will perform creditably?  Well a number of indicators, some historic and others recent performance.

Firstly, 4YOs lead with 11 victories it he BCC the most by any age group.  In the last five BCC, four of the top four finishers excited the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Bernardini won the 2006 JCGC and finished 2nd to Invasor. Curlin won the 2007 JCGC and went on to win the 2007 BCC. Curlin won the 2008 JCGC and went on to finish 4th in the BCC. Blame finished 2nd in the 2010 JCGC and went on to win the 2010 BCC. Drosselmeye broke his maiden at CD and worked the fastest of the Mott contingent. He rarely works a half mile in 47 and this could be an indicator that he loves the track. His performance in the 2011 JCGC is a lot better than it appeared as the Belmont track on that day did not favor closers. He will stay 10F better than all in the field. He has made two starts at the distance of 1 1/4M. In his first on a 3+ track he won in a time of 2:06.27. The second was the JCGC and he got beat by 2 plus lengths in 2:03.07. His time on his second attempt at the distance he improved about his time by about 2.5 seconds. His JCGC effort was the fastest of his career for any distance. He then works 47 for half mile. Watch out he is a live long shot.

22 Oct 2011 10:37 AM
Draynay

THS is suddenly a Classic contender because of a allowance race and a win on a speedway ?  I wouldn't bet THS with Jasons money.

22 Oct 2011 10:51 AM
Smoking Baby

 furlongs.  GOLD!!!  The dude reminded me of these people at the track who roll up their forms and "go to the whip."  LOVE IT.  Thanks for sharing.  GREAT way to begin my day.

22 Oct 2011 11:05 AM
Coldfacts

I am surprise Mr. Shandler has featured Mr. Mott as Mr. Pletcher is his trainer of choice.  I regard Mr. Mott as true horse man that deserved a big BCday. I like all horses in Mr. Mott’s BC contingent. I am particularly looking forwards to the clash between Uncle Mo the anointed one and THS the overrated one. I will take my chance with THS over The Mighty Mo any day. Why, when the Mighty Mo has proven himself to be the superior equine athlete? Well I have a confidence problem with Mr. Pletcher after Quality Road’s 2009 & 2010 debacles. QR refused to enter the starting gates at SA in 2009 and finished last at CD in 2010. Mr. Pletcher has chosen to take another talented colt to CD that has far less ability and a lot less seasoning and all expect him to win. Its thoroughbred racing and anything is possible but if QR is used as a measure the Mighty Mo should be avoided. Just an opinion!

22 Oct 2011 11:05 AM
Smoking Baby

 Jason, good morning.  I know this is off subject but might you know what is going to happen to horses currently under Richard Dutrow's care?  Will he still train and run horses at Monmouth?  Will the stable go to Terranova?  I'm curious.

22 Oct 2011 11:41 AM
Coldfacts

RANAGULZION

Based on your late development syndrome theory associated with the A P Indy sire line horses Take Charge Indy has not chance of winning the BCJ. Have evaluate this colt that has made three starts over synthetic tracks? He has one victory, a runner up and 4th place finish in his three starts. He is well bred and has exhibited a lot of tactical speed in all his races. Being an A P Indy there must be an abundance of stamina to go with his tactical speed. Based on his pedigree it is unlikely that synthetic tracks are his preferred surface. He just worked a bullet at muddy CD and could be a live long shot. I wonder if a Take Charge Indy victory over Union Rags in the BCJ would finally put to rest your late development syndrome theory. An Alpha/ Take Charge Indy one, two finish would find you looking for the closest bridge. I could not resist the temptation to present the both scenarios to you.

22 Oct 2011 12:21 PM
Point Given

You hear it here first. All the BC's Dirt Races will be swept by the West Coast Horses.

22 Oct 2011 2:27 PM
Sylvester

Who you're dreaming.  HDG wins with Z placing 4th at best.

22 Oct 2011 3:27 PM
Coldfacts

Breeder Cup Juvenile record for the Seattle Slew sire line:

1986 Winner - Capote sired by Seattle Slew

1996 Winner - Boston Harbor sired by Capote; Runner-up Acceptable also sired by Capote -Seattle Slew.

1999 Runner-up - Chief Seattle sired by Seattle Slew

2002 Winner - Vindication sired by Seattle Slew

2002 Runner-up - Minister Eric sired by Old Trieste son of A P. Indy - Seattle Slew

2005 Winner - Stevie Wonderboy sired by Steven Got Even son of A P. Indy- Seattle Slew

2005 Show   - Great Hunter sired by Aptitude son of A P. Indy- Seattle Slew

2007 Runner-up - Pyro sired by Pulpit son of A P. Indy- Seattle Slew

2011 Breeder Cup Juvenile:

Alpha sired by Bernardini son of A P. Indy- Seattle Slew

Hansen sired by Tapit son of Pulpit son of A P. Indy- Seattle Slew

Take Charge Indy sired by A P. Indy- Seattle Slew

A P Indy has never sired a top three finisher in the BCJ. Mr. Prospector, Deputy Minister and Storm Cat had top three finishers. He was pensioned in April 2011 and therefore Take Charge Indy is from penultimate crop. TCI is one of the few sons of A P Indy that will participate in the BCJ as they normally better as 3 & 4YOs.He enters the BCJ an unknown quantity on dirt but has shown enough on synthetic to indicate serious ability. His dam is the most accomplished of those associated with probable and possible starters for the BCJ. She was a Gl winner at 9F & 10F. His second dam was sired by 1992 champion sprinter Rubiano and this might account for the tactical speed he has shown. This unknown colt should be a must use in exotics as he is a rare A P Indy.

22 Oct 2011 3:57 PM
NASCAR PRO

Sylvestor thats why we bet,nobody knows  till they hit the wire and even then sometimes all that separates 1st and second is a head bob.  

22 Oct 2011 4:19 PM
Matthew W

Mizdirection gets bad trips--think that's a nice turf sprinter, a 6 1/2 furlong type, even less...but win, baby--that filly should win--time for a change, time for Rosario....

22 Oct 2011 6:03 PM
Draynay

Quality Road was a fresh horse early in the year and faded at the wrong time.  Mo has nothing to do with Quality Road and is heading into the race very fresh and 3rd off a layoff.  I expect him to dominate.

22 Oct 2011 9:55 PM
furlongs

How much you drop today at Keeneland DRAYNAY?? Yeah just wonder if you given up pn betting so you wont be out of bullets come Breeders Cup weekend!!

22 Oct 2011 10:19 PM
Coldfacts

The distance of the Hopeful Stakes was change from 6.5F to 7F in 1994. Below is breakdown of the winning times between 1994 and 2011:

1:21 plus was achieved once (Came Home 1:21.94 is the stakes record)

1:22 plus was achieved once (High Yield 1:22.85 ranks the second fastest)

1:23 plus was achieved 14 times

1:24 plus was achieved 2 times

1:26 plus was achieved 1 time (Currency Swap 1:26.16 on a sloppy track)

Why is this information being highlighted? The answer can be summarized in one word, ALPHA. The winners of the Hopeful Stakes all had previous starts. Alpha’s debut was at 7F and his winning time was 1:23.97. His winning time is consistent with those of 14 winners of the Gl Hopeful who had made previous starts. His debut performance is far more impressive and significant than most have assessed it to be. His race in the Champagne is certainly not a true measure of his immense ability which he will be on display in the BCJ.

22 Oct 2011 10:40 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

We've been in this kind of situation many times before.  Only earlier this year, on two occassions if I remember correctly, our mutual blog-friend Carlos in Cali warned me that I was surrounded with no escape by ubiquitous AP Indy/ Bernardini talent springing up all over the racing world (I'm paraphrasing of course).  Well, needless to tell you, the threat fizzled. Flat Out has been the only grandson of AP Indy to score a Grade One win.

Let me tell you this one more time: it is going to take a very exceptional 2YO to stop Union Rags from winning the BCJ. So far the one colt that seemed to be in his league was an Unbridled's Song colt named Fire On Ice and he went the way of most of the classy Unbridled's Song colts: to the sidelines with some sort of bone fracture. As of now Union Rags towers over rivals like a colossus.  Good luck in your efforts to beat him Bro.  

22 Oct 2011 11:47 PM
Paula Higgins

I think Uncle Mo is more talented than QR. The only question in Mo's case is the distance. Coldfacts, the issue with QR wasn't Pletcher in the BCC. I believe they discovered he had an abscess. He didn't fire at all.

23 Oct 2011 1:46 AM
Tiznowbaby

Draynay, you wrote:

Quality Road was a fresh horse early in the year and faded at the wrong time.  Mo has nothing to do with Quality Road and is heading into the race very fresh and 3rd off a layoff.  I expect him to dominate.

I guess hindsight really is cheap. Recall these posts?

Quality Road Classic winner and 2010 HOY.  Take Quality to win and LAL to place.

Draynay 23 Oct 2010 1:08 AM

Look for Quality to control the race much like Ghostzapper did in 2004.

Draynay 26 Oct 2010 12:45 PM

Everyone knows there is no faster horse in the race then Quality Road.  The race begins and ends with him.  BAT and QR along with Goldikova are locks.

Draynay 28 Oct 2010 12:45 AM

There is no doubt who's the fastest horse in the Classic.  QR will get the dry track he deserves and never look back.  Many of you claim there is a ton of speed in the race but there is no speed like QR speed in the race.  QR can set fractions no other horse can follow.

Draynay 28 Oct 2010 3:37 PM

Pletcher did all he could to tell you the truth. QR is a monster and will not be beat.

Draynay 31 Oct 2010 2:08 PM

Quality Road is on the rail and gone in the Classic. Everyone is running for 2nd.

Draynay 02 Nov 2010 4:43 PM

I think you are the reason for global warming.

23 Oct 2011 12:27 PM
Draynay

Mo 6 easy furlongs in 113.  Watch out.  Winner winner.

23 Oct 2011 5:05 PM
Draynay

2000 bucks on Mo to win.  I would love to get 2 to 1 but I expect 9 to 5.

23 Oct 2011 7:10 PM
furlongs

DRAYNAY-

I am totally calling you out on this. If you have ANY bal_s at all you will past a pic of your $2000 win ticket on Uncle Mo but here is the kicker. Because it will be a losing ticket after the race you mail me the ticket after the Breeder's Cup and I will do the posting of it on these blogs. What you will get in return is total quiet from me from now on about you as a handicaper. I think not only that but you will get some respect from others on these blogs as well simply cause you stood up like a man and made the bet you say your making... In the end we are all wrong sometimes betting horses so there is no shame in being totally wrong about a race. But what does drive people crazy is you running your mouth about how much you bet and win. Therefore this is the perfect time to show us "your the man" right or wrong in your handicaping. So are you up for the challange, I say your not. I say yur total full of crap and you never bet that much in your life in one race day not to mention on 1 horse. So this is you chance to finally get the respect as a handicaper YOU THINK you deserve. Bet your Uncle Mo all $2000 to win and when you lose cause you are going to lose send me the ticket in the mail I post it here for all to see you do what you say and you truely stand behind your handicaping... You do that and never again will there be a peep from me about who you think wins a race. After all if your willing to stand behind your horse that much in the biggest race of his career with the foundation he has thn to me you deserve respect, you are a true handicaper and gambler because we all are wrong more then we would like to be in this game but RESPECT you will totally earn by not just talking talk on here but really pounding it at the windows. So are you up to it?? I totally doubt it cause i know in the end your all talk most everyone knows it on here but maybe we are wrong about you. Your not just another big mouth chalk bettor!! This is you chance to shut us all up!!! Take this offer if your really a man... hey and if Mo does win (which he will not)just think all this showing the ticket goes away and you can mouth off all you want how right you were. Good luck at the windows everyone...

23 Oct 2011 10:06 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Drop the tt from Mott Holding a Strong Breeder's Cup Hand and you got it. Mo Holding a Strong Breeder's Cup Hand. His last workout under 59 concerned me a little when JV said he couldn't slow him down. I liked today's workout where he was more manageable and ran a good mile. I like Uncle Mo or Ruler On Ice for the win. Right now I see ROI catching Mo at the wire with Flat Out getting third. Ruler On Ice is the WPS bet and I may as well box the three of them for the exacta and tri. I wouldn't want Mo to get the lead too early but once he does, I see him repelling the other speed as usual. The time will be fast, setting it up for a closer, and Flat Out will be pressing and hanging around. The question is- Can Mo hang on to the wire. It could happen. Mo is the most talented horse in the field and can't be compared to QR. Not only was QR burned out on the longer distances he didn't want to run but in general was very stubborn and picky about where and when and how far he wanted to run. Mo is more competitive and he will fight with all he's got in the Classic. The biggest key is for him to relax and cruise the first mile or more and then have enough left for a fast final quarter or eighth. I'm not discounting Havre's or Tizway's chances but just going with my instincts on how I think the race will be run. I'm making a choice between Mo, Havre, and Tizway for the speed that I think will last, and combining that with a strong presser, and a strong closer, assuming that they will stick to the closing style for ROI they discovered in his last. He was closing powerfully and has already proven he has 10f stamina. Stay Thirsty has surprised me before and so has Game On Dude so you never know. The pps and posts and workouts could change my mind but this is the way I see it right now.

23 Oct 2011 10:15 PM
KY VET

Im sorry, but many of you need help UNDERSTANDING the sport! Many of you keep slamming quality road. You dont understand that he would kill these horses in the classic(except possible MO)  You dont seem to grasp, that horses cant stay sharp all year long....ITS NOT THAT HARD TO FIND THE BEST HORSE off past performances....Favorites win less than 33 percent for a reason....attrition!  Good races are bad for horses.....A great 2 yr old(union rags) has almost NO CHANCE to win next years derby....A horse running great for months is a very risky bet...You people are picking alot of horses that have been great already!! You need to be very carefull betting these horses....Ive heard how union rags is a cinch, this horse or that horse...as a professional horseplayer, i caution you to change your thinking....why do think its been so long since a triple crown winner? Why do you think almost every prep race was won by an upset for the derby? Why do you think horses get hurt? Running great DOES something to a horse...LEARN THE GAME PEOPLE!! Get the horse Before not after he/she gets sharp!!!!

23 Oct 2011 10:18 PM
Mary Zinke

Oh, Did you pick Blame to win the 2010 Classic, Tiznowbaby, because he did. S L G O I

Good luck, Draynay. Go Mo !!!

I'm looking forward to Quality Road's fast offspring, too.

Paula Higgins, Thank you. That's what I read about Quality Road also. In no other race did he finish as badly as in the Classic. I'm not buying that it was just the distance. If that were it, he would have still beaten half the field.  

23 Oct 2011 11:15 PM
furlongs

Real question here... Is this the slowest bunch of 2 yr olds going into the BC Juv? I mean wow I dont know if Alpha is fast enough to win but I would take him anyday (because of his breeding) down the road as a 3 year old of the other ones I seen...

23 Oct 2011 11:21 PM
NASCAR PRO

Draynay Pletcher isnt known as a trainer that gets good stamina works into his steeds. UM is running his last race.BTW what is Pletchers breeders cup record,and his record in the Classic.Um will have to wire the field,or take the lead early to win,dont kid yourself hes not going to rate the whole race.

24 Oct 2011 4:48 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

The dirt sprint is wide open but nobody is coming into it stronger than Amazombie. It's just a question of how he'll take to the CD dirt. He followed up his win over The Factor with a 46.60 workout. Amazombie is in top form and has been in the money in his last 12 races. He is the one most likely to finish in the money in the BC Dirt Sprint.

24 Oct 2011 9:04 AM
Coldfacts

RANAGULZION

You have cautioned and corrected me on many occasions and I appreciate same. Now it’s my time to caution and correct.

CAUTION:

ALPHA has not run with Lasix to date. It is likely that it will be added for the BCJ. He will therefore be ‘JUICED’ UN is not bred for two turn races and the BCJ just happens to be two turns. When an A P Indy colt with ability is early he must be respected. A change of surface can transform a horse in way unmanageable. Take Charge Indy is an unknown quantity on dirt and that should make him an intriguing prospect based on his synthetic form. You can see how my exotics are taking shape. There have been not consecutive winners of the Champagne/DCJ. Thoroughbred history can be brutal to even the best of talents. I beseech you to widen your scope as these are young gladiators that can improve over night or with a change in track and surface.

CORRECTION:

“Flat Out has been the only grandson of AP Indy to score a Grade One win”

Stay Thirsty - Bernardini - A P Indy (Travers Stakes Gl)

Dialed In - Mineshaft - A P Indy (Florida Derby Gl)

Biondetti - Bernardini - A P Indy (Grand Criterium Gl)

Pulpit - Tapit - A P Indy (Wood Memorial G1)

I am sure I have missed a few but the above is enough to indicate multiplicity.

“So far the one colt that seemed to be in his league was an Unbridled’s Song colt named Fire On Ice and he went the way of most of the classy Unbridled's Song colts: to the sidelines”

No love for wither Creative Cause or Sebercat? The latter has made two start at CD at distances far too short for his pedigree. He is trained by red hot trainers and has won his last two starts.

As usual the pleasure is mine.

24 Oct 2011 12:54 PM
Coldfacts

I would suggest that those intending to wager on Uncle Mo revisit his win in the Kelso. The runner up Jackson’s Bend was slightly impeded when Mo drifted over to the rail. Jackson’s Bend switched position and dug in to the line. Mo was not separating himself from the runner up and was under a strong ride. Will he be able to sit in a 1:36 mile pace and out run genuine closer if he was unable to significantly separate from the stamina challenged Jackson’s Bend? Uncle Mo talent is in no question but his stamina is. He has not defeated any serious router in his victories and has surrendered leads to serious closer i.e., Toby’s Corner, Arthur‘s Tale & Celeb’s Posse. In spite of over whelming support if this colt cannot run in the region of 2:01 plus for the BCC distance his chances of winning are remote. He is a 2:03 horse at best in spite of his speed. I could be setting up myself for another plate of crow but I think not.

24 Oct 2011 1:11 PM
NASCAR PRO

KY vet in 2yo racing it is similar to bullys in jr hs that dont grow anymore and everyone catches up to them.None of the juveniles has run a spectacular time or speed figure.These are early developers like UM was in his 2yo season he WAS the bully,the rest were catching up to him.I agree with the notion that unless you are dominant like lets say Cigar or Curlin you dont run at the same high level for the whole year.Also you havent taken into account medication and some trainers are better pharmacists than others.They are called form cycles and they affect ALMOST all racehorses except the truly brilliant at sprinting,middle distance,or routing.Some are good on the green as well,some are not.But a horse that is brilliant running a mile in the majority of cases will not be as effective going 1 1/8 or 1 1/4.

24 Oct 2011 1:29 PM
Draynay

furlongs you don't know me by now ? On my facebook I have posted several tickets of mine and I have been to the track with Jason a handful of times and HE KNOWS how I bet.  I am a win/place better with a few Pick 3's and Pick 4's.  I almost never better Tri's or Supers.  I almost always bet 100 WP on every race and races I really like I bet 200 WP.  Havre in the Woodward I bet 500 WP.  I do 10 dollar pick 3's in 321 depending on finding a race I can single.  As far as my tickets are concerned I will be more than happy to send ALL of my losing tickets to Jason from Breeders Cup day.  After all furlong, I just couldn't sleep at night knowing you thought I might be full of BS.

24 Oct 2011 1:31 PM
furlongs

No No Draynay- Not your buddy Jason that would let you take a pic of the ticket before the race and then turn around and cash it back in. This blog needs someone who is not your buddy and totally doubts you and not only thinks but pretty much goes to bed knowing your full of BS! You will not do this because your not betting $2000 to win on Mo in the Classic and you know your not. You do not have the guts. You know why cause he wont be 2/5 and have pigs in there facing him. Its a real race at a true distance on a fair racetrack and its not a easy spot and you know it! Just say it... Your not up for the Challenge. We all know it. Your not betting $2000 on him to win so just admit you were running your mouth, like always and I will drop it. Easy as that...

24 Oct 2011 2:50 PM
KY VET

Who! Great points, if any of them applied to uncle mo! Which they dont......Didnt grow or mature? REALLY? Does that apply here? He ran what a 108 beyer in november....How many horses going into the derby had a 2 turn beyer over 100? 1!  ONE!   So he didnt need to grow any huh? IDIOT POINT!  Maybe you dont know, but he just ran a 118!  Didnt mature?  He beat one of the sharpest horses in america in jackson bend.....Oh how good is jersey town? consistant 100 beyer runner ? he was 9 back of mo!!!! Go back to whoville sam you am not!!!!!

24 Oct 2011 4:35 PM
Draynay

Wow furlongs you don't trust Jason ?  If Mo loses (he won't)  I will be happy to send you my tickets on Mo for 2000 to win and I will sign them under one condition.  You do not put them on Ebay for sale.  The last time my signature went up for sale the bid topped 100,000 and the IRS got involved.  Deal ?

24 Oct 2011 6:12 PM
Draynay

Wow you guys must not understand time.  Mo can run a 135 in his sleep.  Even if he comes home in 26 tiring seconds he still will post a 2:01 and win by 4.

24 Oct 2011 6:15 PM
NASCAR PRO

Mo was a bully as a 2yo.As a 3yo he won the timely writer,3rd in the wood,2nd in the kings bishop,1st in the kelso he beat 4 good horses.Inotherwords he won in the juvenile at 1 1/16 in waht did you say,and he won at a mile and beyer gave him a 118.To me he is a middle distance runner.How you get the notion that he is going to carry that speed out to a mile and a quarter and beat the best field he ever faced,makes me know you dont KNOW THE SPORT.(he could do it because this is horseracing with the right trip any horse that is placed in the right spot can win.You say you are a proffessional gambler,I dont believe it.You are taking low odds on a horse doing something for THE FIRST TIME.If you were getting 5-1 or so you would have a lot more credibility.

24 Oct 2011 6:30 PM
Draynay

Black Caviar !  Best undefeated Mare I have ever seen.

24 Oct 2011 6:33 PM
NASCAR PRO

draynay this is mos last race I hope for your 2000 bet he wins.I am not worried whatever horse I bet if he comes in the money I will win the bet or all of my money back.

24 Oct 2011 6:34 PM
chucky

DRANO....Rachel can also run 135 miles but so what? just look at what she did in the Personal Ensign....

lost to an allowance horse....

24 Oct 2011 6:41 PM
Householder

"Even if he comes home in 26 tiring seconds he will still post a 2:01 and win by 4."

Draynay's got you there.  All of New York seems to be running with a parachute attached to their back.

Stay Thirsty (Sar) 203.03

Drosselmeyer (Bel) 206.07!

Flat Out (Bel) 203.17

24 Oct 2011 7:11 PM
NASCAR PRO

BTW KY vet dont blow a gasket if I disagree with your opinion,we might not be able to put you back together with pins and screws.

24 Oct 2011 7:22 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

How fast could QR run and how did that work for him last November?

24 Oct 2011 7:52 PM
furlongs

DRAYNAY-

Deal, I will post the ticket that's right I said ticket not tickets. There is no reason why you would bet the $2000 on more then then one ticket. So Mo loses you send me a $2000 win ticket on Mo and it will show that you truely bet that much to win on him. And as soon as I post it on these blogs I will then turn right around and mail it back to you just so you know I will not do anything with the ticket. I just want to see you put your money where your mouth is at the windows and stand behide your statements. If you can prove you do this I will totally stay off your back and will respect you as a handicaper and know that even when your wrong at least you back up your thinking at the windows... Good luck at the windows everyone!

24 Oct 2011 8:04 PM
furlongs

KY VET-

Jackson Bend is a lock for the Dirt Mile then correct?? That little horse has heart but he is not going to win the Dirt Mile and when he doesnt you can start to second guessing yourself about Mo in the Classic... But then again your not betting the Classic are you, lol even though your on these blogs acting like he is a lock! If I knew there was a lock I would be betting with both hands on the horse cause you will never get a better price then on BC day!

24 Oct 2011 8:09 PM
Paula Higgins

Mary Zinke, you're welcome. QR was a good horse that had a bad day. A good horse horse doesn't run that poorly unless there is something wrong. Well, Draynay and Dr Drunkinbum, that makes 3 of us who are in Mo's corner for the BCC. I still think people are underestimating him. If we KNEW he couldn't get the distance, I would say o.k. I get it. We just don't know that yet.

24 Oct 2011 9:24 PM
Tiznowbaby

No Mary Zinke, I did not have Blame to win. I had a Zenyatta-Blame exacta box because any fool could see they were the two best horses in the race.

24 Oct 2011 10:47 PM
Coldfacts

“Mo can run a 135 in his sleep”

ONE TURN MILE:

Champagne                1:34.51

Timely Writer             I:36.56

Kelso                          1:33.82

TWO TURN RACES:

Wood Memorial         1:37.26

BCJ                            1:36.33

Uncle Mo was clearly not sleeping in either the Wood or BCJ. If he records 1:35 plus in the BCC he will not hit the board as he is stamina suspect. No BCC run at CD has recorded a mile split of 1:35 plus. The BCC won by Tiznow had the fastest mile split of 1:36.08.

TO HONOR & SERVER:

ONE TURN RACES:

Maiden                      1:37.11

Nashua                      1:35.86 (Geared down)

TWO TURN RACES:

Remsen                     1:36.61

Allowance                1:35.13

PA Derby                 1:34.3/5

THS has the better mile splits for two turn races. His pedigree reflects more stamina. His record for his 9F races is (5-3-0-2).  Everything indicates THS is the 3YO with the best credentials to win the BCC.

24 Oct 2011 10:55 PM
Ranagulzion

Dr Drunkinbum,

Big Drama is looking a lock in the BC Sprint with each passing week: good luck trying to beat him.  The 3YO colt Royal Currier is a good long shot: watch that one.

Coldfacts,

I stand corrected on the remark that Flat Out is the only Grade One winning grandson of AP Indy this year.  The truth is that after posting it I remembered about Stay Thirsty.  Also how could I have forgotten Dialed In (my Derby choice)? I knew that i could count on you for the correction (LOL).

BTW you are putting yourself in a vulnerable position concerning Union Rags.  Think again. This colt has loads of stamina in his pedigree and has given you absolutely no indication that he'll be less effective going two turns: thats a figment of your immagination.  Anyway I don't wish for you to take up an adversarial position on this matter.  Just do me a favour and review his pedigree and let your better judgment prevail.

KY VET,

I'm looking forward to you posting your Breeder's Cup picks in due course.  I trust that you'll oblige as the teacher on here.  If you don't we'll have no choice but to regard you as a QUACK masquerading as a VET...OK?

Jason,

Are you wth me on this one?  What say you Mike Relva?

24 Oct 2011 11:39 PM
furlongs

Coldfacts you want some facts how about this!! Think about this Uncle Mo and THAS were the #1 and #2 two year olds in the country last year at the end of the season by everyone. Neither has won a Grade 1 race as a 3 year old. Niether one of them made the Triple Crown. WOW and both will take a ton of money in the BC Classic. This is Havre de Grace's race to lose as well as HOY honors! Just shows you can go as deep as you want to show someone COLDFACTS on any racehorse.

24 Oct 2011 11:44 PM
Matthew W

Cali sending sneaky good turfers--Caracortado will win the turf sprint, all he needs is a seam, also love Unzip Me, and Jeranimo ran lights out the other day, but I like, no, LOVE, Mr Commons, I think he's hidden class, coming up to this in a good way, for Mr Shirreffs... have stated my enthusiasm with Amazombie, the Cal bred in the sprint on dirt--he is peaking--he will be tough to beat out there--also like Smiling Tiger, think the West will be represented well in the sprints! If Twirling Candy is right, they're in for a real treat on Sat, in the dirt mile...don't think we'll be seeing the Classic Winner from out here, if Charlie Whittingham could bring back Cougar, as a seven year old, in the 1 1/4 Big Cap, as the high weight, off five months layoff...and win--then Uncle Mo can wire them--or else lay right off Game On Dude--mewonders whether Whittingham wouldn't be trying for the Classic with Twirlybird, as his Pac Classic was his best race, he closed into slow fractions vs a good horse, I just think the last 1/16 is gonna be a trying one for all of them, I like Ruler On Ice/Gomez, and I also like Tizway, and cannot toss Uncle Mo, although he will need to answer many questions, as the waters get way deeper for him--and the filly is no cinch--just cuz she won the Woodward, this race is way tougher than that one--she could do it, just not gonna take a low price on top, not with salty dogs like Tizway, whom I think is a better horse than Harve...love N Y breds Pure Logic and Weemissfrankie...love Cal breds Caracortado, Ultra Blend, Unzip Me, Amazombie!

24 Oct 2011 11:59 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Paula Higgins

   I'm betting 2.000 bucks win, place and show on Ruler On Ice (that's 6.000 total) and 2.000 bucks exacta box Uncle Mo and Ruler On Ice (that's 4.000 total). I will airmail you the stubs either Fed Ex or UPS or even by regular Postal Mail if you prefer. No faxes or scans or any of that stuff. Or I might even send it Pony Express by Uncle Mo. He has enough stamina to win the BC Classic, stop by the winner's circle, grab my stubs, run them over to you and still get back to clean out his feed tub and get seconds. Then he'll probably hightail it over to his new job and get started. Mo Knows Stamina.

25 Oct 2011 12:12 AM
NASCAR PRO

IF mo is 5-1 or more than you should play Mo across the board with the $2000 Dray.Mo is not a lock running a distance that he has never run against the best field he has ever faced.At less than 5-1 no professional gambler will bet $2000 to win UNLESS he has another bet to cover just in case the SURE THING isnt so sure.BTW do you think Repole will bet a bundle on Mo and ST?

25 Oct 2011 1:01 AM
Draynay

Coldfacts you have no idea what you are talking about.  Ghostzapper ran the mile split in 2004 in 135 1/5.  Mo will do it in 135 4/5 and finish in 25 seconds flat.  All he needs is a nice fast dry track.

25 Oct 2011 1:42 AM
Criminal Type

I have never seen someone so hung up on what has proven to be a mediocre sire line.

25 Oct 2011 6:21 AM
JerseyBoy

furlongs:

What is all this talk about tickets? Do people still use tickets? I thought a big bet was just a computer entry whether you are home or at the track. I have not handled a ticket of any kind in years.

25 Oct 2011 6:48 AM
NASCAR PRO

Coldfacts I agree that if you look at their resumes THS is the better 3yo in routes than UM,but what I like best is that I will get better ODDS on THS than on UM.When an expert horseplayer dosent have a lock in a race(a lock is rarely over 5-1 in modern times with the proliferation of information)he bets the horse that has a good chance at the best ODDS.IMO the betting ODDS that you see are the MOST important factor as a horseplayer, it is the ONLY factor you KNOW before the race starts that is not historical.I would say if you ask 10 professional gamblers the most important factors in being profitable as a horseplayer and the majority would state ODDS at the top of their list of factors or near the top.

25 Oct 2011 8:28 AM
Bob from Boston

Writer's block.  Any advice?

25 Oct 2011 12:35 PM
LAZMANNICK

RANAGULZION

QUACK! QUACK!

25 Oct 2011 12:57 PM
Criminal Type

Just read Tizway is out of the BC Classic and retired with a suspensory injury to his left foreleg. Delete him from the HOY running.

25 Oct 2011 3:46 PM
KY VET

Furlongs....thank you for asking..JACKSON BEND ran great against MO! Unlike many on here,that dont know the horse, im am taking a stand against JACKSON....what you dont get, is the fact he ran his eyeballs out 3 races in a row...this will have an effect on him....this is the part of this game most dont get....As a professional horseplayer, you see the future by looking at the past!!!!!!!

25 Oct 2011 4:05 PM
LAZMANNICK

Now Tizway is the latest casualty on the road to the Breeders Cup.  The defections are pulling what should be a great event down to the status of the Maryland Million.  Maybe Rapid Redux should look for a race to enter.  I can just read the headlines now......three to contest BC Classic.  

25 Oct 2011 4:07 PM
JerseyBoy

RANAGULZION:

Tizway read your latest misrepresentation of the performances of AP Indy's descendants this year and once again has called in sick. In fact, he is so disgusted, he has retired.

He said you can now continue to tout Sidney's Candy until he too gets jinxed.

25 Oct 2011 4:22 PM
Guiness

Another horse out of the BCC. Is this the "pits" or what?   We may need to gather up some Allowance or Second hand stringers to make a complete field to run against.   Havre De Grace sure won't have to break a sweat in this race.  She will have time to get a manicure along the way.

25 Oct 2011 4:32 PM
Easygoer67

Why would a person put down a sum of money on a horse attempting something for the first time, when the horse will be short or at low odds!

25 Oct 2011 4:46 PM
Jason Shandler

I feel very badly for Jim Bond and the owner of Tizway. He was going to be a big factor in the race if they could keep im healthy. Bond was very gracious during a tough time when I called him. An easy guy to root for.

Baffert wouldnt confirm it for sure, but The factor is going to Dirt Mile and Prayer for Relief to Classic. He is very high on Drill in Juvy.

25 Oct 2011 4:50 PM
Draynay

Tizway was no threat going 1 1/4.  The field is talented but there is no doubt it's a 2 horse race.  To suggest this is not a very good Classic field is crazy with Uncle Mo, So You Think, and Havre de Grace in the race.

25 Oct 2011 4:57 PM
Draynay

Geez, some of you people must be new at this.  Uncle Mo stretching out is a very good bet.  He already has a Breeders Cup win going 2 turns at Churchill.  Who else in the race can say that ?  Who else is a monster at 1 1/4 on dirt ?  Mo is simply much faster at 1 mile.  Running 400 more yards doesn't scare me they will all have to make up 5 to 10 lengths in just 400 yards.  I just don't see it happening.  And if it comes up wet Mo will win by 10.

25 Oct 2011 5:02 PM
NASCAR PRO

Dr D buy the brew before the race starts that way if the Icedmo that you purchased in a box dosent quench your thirst the ones you bought before the race started will.GL.BTW you can send tickets thru the mail by return receipt or

better yet certified and they will arrive at their destination in several days depending on how far they have to go and you can post the evidence(receipt)in case whoever you send it too on this blogsite lies about receiving it.

25 Oct 2011 5:03 PM
Ranagulzion

Jersey Boy,

I'm saddened by Tizway's injury and you're full of glee? I don't think his absence is going to help your favourites much because of the others, only Havre de Grace seems capable of matching strides with 'Mo' when Johnny V switches on those 'afterburners' on the far turn.  My advise to you: Get ready for the Uncle Mo show.

Lazmannick,

Do you think that the VET is going to take up my challenge or is he going to duck like a QUACK (LOL)?

25 Oct 2011 5:44 PM
Guiness

Someone needs to contact Rapid Redux's connections and ask them to allow him to run his # 19 race in the BCC.  HE could use this race and the BCC sure could use him.

25 Oct 2011 5:58 PM
tcc

Matthew W;

Santa Anita Park:

Santa Anita: Smiling Tiger and Unzip Me to skip Breeders' Cup.

25 Oct 2011 6:14 PM
tcc

Churchill Downs:

Breeders’ Cup: Gio Ponti entered in Classic and Mile.

25 Oct 2011 6:20 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Bob from Boston

   Talk to your good buddy Ted from LA. That guy is never at a loss for words. Last time I saw him was about a month ago at Bailey's Pub. He hasn't been back since one of his darts went astray and hit Sammy Bucklemaster in the arse. I have no idea where he is now but you probably no more than I do.

25 Oct 2011 6:41 PM
Householder

Matthew W.  The hard knocking Unzip Me is entered in the California Cup Distaff.  She will skip the Breeder's Cup.

Whittingham was pretty gutsy.  After the Belmont he puts only 2 races into Sunday Silence, a horrible Swaps, where he stops in the lane, and the Super Derby.

Meanwhile, camp Easy Goer racks up 5 consecutive grade 1 wins (the good old days) including the Belmont, Whitney, Travers, Woodward, and Jockey Gold Cup, so 3 races against older.

Easy Goer goes off in the Classic 1-2 and Sunday Silence 2-1 which included Whittingham having to make a late Jockey switch to Mccaron who had never ridden the horse.  

The rest as they say "Is history."

25 Oct 2011 7:39 PM
Householder

Matthew W.  

I don't think Smiling Tiger was pre-entered in the Breeder's Cup Spint.  He has not worked since September and is going up for aution at the Fasig-Tipton sale in November.  

25 Oct 2011 7:46 PM
It aint easy being good!

HAHA the uncle mo show! I will agree with Dray that if it rains on Saturday bet the house on MO he will romp in the mud! I wish it was Saturday already. I cant wait for Jasons picks this year so I can make sure its an automatic toss!

25 Oct 2011 8:36 PM
Coldfacts

Draynay,

“Coldfacts you have no idea what you are talking about.  Ghostzapper ran the mile split in 2004 in 135 1/5.”

I know you have been taking a lot of incoming fire regarding your proposed $2,000 wager on Uncle Mo. Consequently, you do not have luxury of time and therefore you are likely to miss pertinent portions of certain posts as depicted an extract from your 25 Oct 2011 1:42 AM post above. Below is the portion of my post that you are disputing:

“No BCC run at CD has recorded a mile split of 1:35 plus.”

You will note that I specified Churchill Downs. The 27th renewal of the Breeder Cup is being held at that location. For your benefit I have listed below the mile splits and winners for the six BCC contested at that track.

2010 - Blame   (1:37.12)

2006 - Invasor (1:36.59)

2000 - Tiznow  (1:36.08) fastest BBC at the location, 2:00.75

1998 - Awesome Again (1:37.34)

1994 - Concern (1:36.65)

1991 - Black Tie Affair (1:38.00) Gate to wire winner.

Tiznow ran the last quarter in 24.67 to achieve the 2:00.75. Tiznow won the Super Derby at LAD in a time of 1:59.84 two months before 2000 BCC. Black Tie Affair was allowed to set embarrassing fractions for a Gl race and was able to repel all challengers. Uncle Mo will enjoy no such luxury as I expect To Honor and Serve and Game On Dude to keep him honest on the lead.

Now for accusing me of having no idea I expect to man up and post an apology. However, I will not be holding my breath.

25 Oct 2011 8:43 PM
Paula Higgins

Dr Drunkinbum LOL!! Loved that! Yes, Uncle Mo could do all that and then some. Love the little guy. So sorry to see Tizway is out. He is a very good horse. It is nice to hear that he has nice connections who will talk to you Jason, unlike someone else we (Hollendorfer). Bob from Boston, I am sure even Shakespeare, Austen, Dickens, Joyce and Mark Twain had writers block. All creative geniuses hit a wall every now and then. You are in good company.

25 Oct 2011 9:09 PM
Coldfacts

Furlongs,

I have taken the liberty of using a capital F in your posting title I hope you do not mind. Your cold facts are correct in every respect. Neither Uncle nor THS have won a G1 in 2011 and the BCC is Havre de Grace's race to lose as well as HOY honors. In fact To Honor and Serve is yet to taste Gl success.

I would like to take you back to the BCC of 2002. It was won by Volponi at 43-1. He never won a Gl race either before or after the BCC. He was not as talented as the two 3YOs referenced in your post. I don ot think Uncle Mo an win the BCC for a number of reason that I have already stated. However, I am of the opinion THS will be an easy winner of the race in spite of his lack of Gl success. This colt is exceptionally well bred, big, strong and fast.

WELL BRED

His sire was runner up in the BCC; his grandsire was a winner of the BCC

His sire’s dam sire (Quiet American) was the dam sire of a winner of the BCC (Saint liam sire of Havre de Grace)

His dam sire was by the sire and dam sire of a BCC winner.

His second dam was sired by a sire of a BCC winner

His third dam was sired by a sire of a BCC winner

His pedigree is loaded with Breeder Cup Classic winning sires.

BIG, STRONG & FAST:

The Nashua: gate to wire, in hand the last sixteen; whip never employed at anytime - 1:35.86

Allowance: second to top of stretch; 23.20,46.27,1:10.3,1:35.13, 1:48.31 (whip never employed at anytime)

PA Derby: second to top of stretch; 23 1/5,46 3/5,10 1/5,1:34 3/5, 1:47 1/5 (Four cracks of the whip)

This colt won his last two 9F races under almost a hand ride with an average winning time of 1:47.75. With the pedigree composition above and the speed displayed in his last two races, I am confident he will win the BCC in romp baring So You Think spoiling the party

25 Oct 2011 9:37 PM
LAZMANNICK

RANAGULZION

I hope he doesn't "duck out" if you know what I mean.  At this point I have no idea who to bet.  I need a good professional opinion.

25 Oct 2011 9:43 PM
Coldfacts

RANAGULZION

“when Johnny V switches on those 'afterburners' on the far turn”

Are you sure you are referencing the right colt?

Uncle Mo - Kelso one turn mile: 23.47, 46.03, 1:09.34, 1:33.82(fully extended)

THS - PA Derby two turns: 23 1/5, 46 3/5, 10 1/5, 1:34 3/5 (under a hand ride)

Uncle Mo cannot out run THS as he is just as fast. When the big Bernardini colt moves at the top of the stretch the Mighty Mo will wonder what hit him. He will regret not joining Jackson’s Bend in the mile.

25 Oct 2011 9:57 PM
GunBow

The 3 weeks before the Breeder's Cup and 2 weeks before the Derby might be my least favorite time.  Because all I'm really doing is waiting for the big races hoping all the good horses stay healthy.  And invariably, they are not able to stay healthy and "dream" races fall apart.

It's been a particularly tough few weeks for the Cali contingent.  Gone are Blind Luck, Acclamation, Champ Pegasus, Zazu, Smiling Tiger.

As for Unzip Me, the Cal Cup Distaff is the correct spot for her.  While she was 3rd in the BC Turf Sprint last year, her form this year has simply not been quite as sharp.  She had gone a long time since she had lost to another female, but over the last few months she has done it a number of times.

25 Oct 2011 11:03 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Coldfacts-I didn't think Uncle Mo was fully extended at all in the Kelso unless you call having one of the best strides in racing fully extended. Johnny V just let the reigns loose and Mo was gone. No whip, no struggle, just cruise control.(under a hand ride) And you can't compare the two times on different tracks in different conditions. The 8th race at Parx on 9-24 was an allowance race run in 1:35.89, the 10th race was a 6f ungraded stakes run in 1:07.51, the 12th race was a 30k claiming 6 1/2f run in 1:15.85. THAS ran a strong race but Mo's was more impressive and a much higher speed figure. Obviously the question is 10f as it is with everyone else in the race against this caliber of competition. If you want a Bernardini, I think Stay Thirsty will outfinish THAS. It will be a shocker indeed if THAS wins in a romp or at all. A top three will stun me. That's not to say it's impossible but still a shocker. I'm trying to envision it and I just can't.

25 Oct 2011 11:42 PM
furlongs

Coldfacts

I have to admit I like reading your posts on here. Have you ever thought you may be looking at the wrong Bernardini colt??

26 Oct 2011 12:11 AM
KY VET

OF course, no one has mentioned this......The LACK OF SPEED in the sprint male races is almost historic....i guess many of them we lost to injury. Usually it is a speed party of horses that can fly early..21flat horses...this is the slowest sprinters pobably ever in a cup sprint......

26 Oct 2011 12:28 AM
JerseyBoy

Those who have questions about To Honor And Serve, should bear in mind that no horse has ever run him down when he had the lead after 6 furlongs in a distance race.

26 Oct 2011 6:33 AM
Weekend

Coldfacts, please stop comparing times from different tracks. Did THS and Mo run on the same track for the times you are comparing? NO, one ran at Parx, the other at Belmont Park. If you want to use this logic to handicap, so be it, but you know as well as the next that times can be misleading. If you were comparing times, Mo was ahead 4 legnths at the mile mark anyway. And like DR D stated, he was not fully extended.

Now, onto the weather. Accuweather is calling for 54 and partly cloudy on Friday, and 51 and sunny on Saturday, with the only rain being forecast on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Don't get me wrong, the weatherman is wrong most of the time unless you live in San Diego, but that is what we are looking at now, a fast fair track.

I heard MO was a handful this morning, on the bit and ready to tear the walls down. I think he likes being back at the track he dominated on last November. Hate him if you want, but he is going to silence the critics.

26 Oct 2011 9:12 AM
FATPIANO

Royal Delta will destroy Plum Pretty, To Honor and Serve will surprise many and will win The Classic. Drosslemyer might plug along for 3rd or 4th, CC could pull off the upset of Goldi, she is not as good as last year, Birdrun should win the Marathon, Overall Mott is going to have a very BIG day.......

26 Oct 2011 9:52 AM
Smoking Baby

 It Ain't Easy Being Good.  Be careful my friend.  Agree with him, don't agree with him, but something tells me that Jason cashes his share of tickets.  Just saying.

26 Oct 2011 10:46 AM
Footlick

And just also a reminder, you cannot responsibly compare fractions and times of a one-turn race and a two-turn race.  They are two totally different animals.

26 Oct 2011 11:28 AM
Criminal Type

It aint easy, If it rain's Breeders Cup Saturday there is no doubt in my mind that Union Rag's will romp too. I think he will romp wet or dry but He really loved the slop at Saratoga. Ranagulzion and I will be counting our cash. When everyone gets on his bandwagon, remember We were here first.

26 Oct 2011 1:17 PM
Ranagulzion

KY VET,

Royal Currier and Euro Ears will ensure a sub-22 seconds opening quarter in the Sprint ...thought you were able to figure that out genius.

26 Oct 2011 1:46 PM
Householder

Game on Dude's fractions are fine at 1 1/4.  In fact his 2 highest Beyer's of the year are at this distance.

The Hollywood Gold Cup *synthetic* was 136 1/5 finishing up in 201 2/5 with a 106 Beyer loss and the Santa Anita Handicap he ran 134 4/5 finishing up in 159 2/5 with a 100 Beyer win.

He has been 1-2 the last 5 races at the 3/4ers mark over different surfaces.  

The only horse that looks remotely similar on paper is Harve.  Her 1 1/4 Delaware she ran a 106 Beyer at 201 1/5 in a loss.  

Compare this with Flat Out, Stay Thirsty, or Drosselmeyer (does he even have a 90 Beyer?)  On paper they are just too slow and Harve easily beat Flat Out going 1/8th shorter.  He'll be force to change tatics with her entered.

I'm not saying G.O.D. wins but if he breaks and takes he gives Mo some fits.

Baffert has made it no mystery what he will be doing.  Watch the fast 5 furlong bullet works he puts into this one once he hits Churchill.

26 Oct 2011 2:03 PM
Householder

Baffert may be high on Drill but Creative Cause moved way up on the stretch out and rider change.  This one should be undefeated if you toss the Del Mar rodeo.  

26 Oct 2011 2:12 PM
Weekend

Secret Circle is Bafferts lock in the BC Juv Sprint. back to back 97 beyers

26 Oct 2011 2:54 PM
It aint easy being good!

Criminal Hype I am on the Union bandwagon for sure! Also householder Dross ran a 104 beyer last out and wont get winded at all...Winstar rules and will again in the classic!

26 Oct 2011 3:42 PM
KY VET

ran.....the sprint usually has tons of speed.....this years is really the least fast horses ever.....the mile on the other hand has tons of pace horses!!!

26 Oct 2011 10:38 PM
Criminal Type

Easy, The Hype being generated over some of these horses IS criminal.  lol

27 Oct 2011 2:32 PM
Householder

GunBow.  I thought Unzip Me looked great winning the Cal Cup Distaff.  No female is better at turf sprints then this one.  

31 Oct 2011 7:50 PM
Jason Shandler

Just capped the Turf Sprint and I really like Country Day at a price. Regally Ready and Havelock will be tough, but no value there.

01 Nov 2011 3:23 PM

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