Breeders' Cup Picks

Juvenile Sprint

Secret Circle--Nobody is better at preparing young sprinters than Baffert, the former Quarter Horse trainer. Was as dominant as could be in first two starts and is fast, but tactical for a young colt. Doesn't offer much value but I'll bite the bullet.

Trinniberg--Beaten less than a length by Vexor in Nashua, but draws better this time. Like how he is training at Churchill.

Holdin Bullets--Speaking of bullets, Wesley Ward is no slouch with young horses and I'm hoping this lightly-raced gelding will grab the early lead and hang on for a small piece.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Stopshoppingmaria--She is training lights out on turf. Hope I can get her at 8-1.

Dayatthespa--Has run two big races and has the speed to put herself in winning position.

Dear Lavina--Beaten 1 1/2 lengths by favorite Elusive Kate this summer and is 3-1-1 from five starts. And I get about 30-1 instead of 2-1. I'm including her.

Customer Base--Two-for-two. First start on turf but the latest work was encouraging. Leparoux aboard too. Worth using.

Filly & Mare Sprint

Turbulent Descent--Towers over this field and is 3-for-3 at the distance. I'm not trying to beat her. In fact, she will be a single for me.

Pomeroys Pistol--Not crazy about the outside post but she has enough speed to clear and put herself near the lead.

Her Smile--Like her works at Churchill and will be a big price that may finish well for a piece.

Juvenile Fillies

Grace Hall--This is a deep field and a tough race but I'll give her the slight edge. The perfect record includes a two-turn win at Delaware. She couldn't be doing any better right now. It's just a matter if she's good enough.

Northern Passion--If Casse put her in the Juvenile Fillies Turf she would have been one of the favorites. Says a lot that he is willing to run her here.

My Miss Aurelia--Deserving favorite sure looked good in Frizette. But two turns is a question and she won't get an easy lead.

Miss Netta--Could be running late for a share.

Filly & Mare Turf

Stacelita--Difficult to overlook her here. The rain on Thursday will only help her.

Announce--Consistent filly defeated Stacelita earlier in the year.

Dubawi Heights--Sharp right now and hung in there pretty well against Stacelita at Arlington.

Ladies Classic

Royal Delta--Solid work at Churchill confirmed she's ready to run a big one. If she runs back to Alabama they are all running for second.

Ultra Blend--She's as consistent as they come. Would benefit from a hot pace.

Miss Match--They thought enough of her to put her in the Goodwood. Wasn't a bad effort.

Marathon

Cease--Steadily improving gelding has the looks of a horse that wants to go longer. Like Gomez picking up the mount.

Birdrun--Best races came at 1 1/2 miles. Mott likes how he is getting over the track at Churchill.

Eldaafer--I'll use last year's winner underneath.

Juvenile Turf

Finale--Not worried about the outside post. If he gets a stalking trip he's better than any of these.

Lucky Chappy--His run in the Borubon was impressive. Will be in the hunt.

Daddy Nose Best--Asmussen and Leparoux at 30-1 in a juvy race, why not?

Sprint

Euroears--I picked Apriority on THS, but after looking at it closer I have to give the edge to Euroears. He's too classy and the Vosburgh was a complete toss. Wire-to-wire.

Apriority--Still like him to run well at a big price.

Amazombie--In great form right now. Have to use him.

Turf Sprint

Country Day--Taking a shot here in a great betting race. Has really taken to turf since the switch and he's a true five-furlong sprinter. Good works over his home course for a local trainer. Will be a big price.

Chamberlain Bridge--Last year's winner is doing great and obviously loves it at Churchill. Going to have to be at his best from outside post.

Havelock--Great turn of foot in the Woodford. You know he'll be coming at the end.

Dirt Mile

Wilburn--My top pick of the weekend. Looking for The Factor, Shackleford, and Tapizar to gun it up front and Wilburn to sit right off the speed. Has really gotten good recently.

Trappe Shot--Should be running late from the outside. Quick pace will be to his advantage.

The Factor--Fastest of the speed horses should be hanging around at the end.

Turf

Sarafina--Lukewarm selection in a race I don't really care for. Her class could be the difference.

Midday--Speaking of class, she is as consistent as they come. Hard to imagine her not being in the mix.

Dean's Kitten--Battled Cape Blanco to the wire in Turf Classic. Could sit a good trip right off of Brilliant Speed.

Juvenile

Creative Cause--Expect him to sit right off of Hansen and run him down. I think the California juveniles are a bit better than the East Coasters.

Union Rags--No doubt that he looks like a beast. Just like Creative Cause a little bit more.

Prospective--Grey winner is tactical and could get a piece at a huge price. Anyone remember Vale of York?

Mile

Courageous Cat--Obviously, will take his best to beat Goldikova. Was second to her in 2009 by a half-length. I'm hoping he's a little better two years later. He will be closer to the pace than he was in that one. We'll find out if he is good enough.

Goldikova--Even if she has lost a half-step she is good enough to win again. Would be a truly remarkable feat.

Strong Suit--Has gotten really good lately. Adds lasix and should be in the mix.

Zoffany--If you're willing to throw out the Turf Mile he has a big chance.

Classic

Uncle Mo--I'll be the first to admit that my bias towards this horse and his connections played a part in this selection. I know prepping for a 1 1/4-mile race with a sprint and a one-turn mile is not ideal and it will take an extraordinary effort for him to win. And the 5-2 odds I will get on him are way too low. I know all of this. If he runs poorly, I can take the heat.

Here are the reasons I like him:

A) He is doing fantastic right now; as well as he was when coming into the Kelso. The rumors about him not being right are complete garbage.

B) He's fast. If you believe in the Rags and other speed numbers he will have the lead at the eighth-pole. Good luck catching him.

C) I like his draw. He is outside of Game on Dude, so he won't have to take all the heat. He can follow him for a mile and make his move.

D) He has a two-turn win over the track, which only one other horse can boast.

He might not win but I think Mo will run a big race. Too many think he's going to pull a Quality Road. That's not happening.

So You Think--It took me all week to warm to him but if he takes to dirt he has a very good chance. He's so classy and he has five group I wins at 1 1/4 miles. Hard to ignore. Will wear blinkers and get lasix, both unknown factors. But he has trained on dirt before and O'Brien obviously thinks he can handle it.

To Honor and Serve--He will sit just off of Game on Dude and Mo, which is perfect for him. I love the way he is coming into the race and even though he's never been the distance he should have no problems going longer.

Havre de Grace--She always runs big. No horse has been more consistent than she has this year and I give her connections a huge amount of credit for running in this race. Would not be disappointed if she won. I just think she will see more speed than she ever has before and might be a little further back than she's accustomed to.

Best of luck to everyone this weekend. I hope it's a profitable one. Let us know who you like.

107 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Draynay

Uncle Mo would whip Frankel on dirt.  He may be all that on grass but don't pretend for a second he is all world on dirt.  Mo would run him off his feet.

03 Nov 2011 3:48 PM
Draynay

This is a one horse race and Mo wins by 5 over Flat Out with the filly close behind Flat Out.

03 Nov 2011 3:50 PM
Anoldhorseplayer

Thank you for your selections Jason, now we know which one's to draw a line through. You likely won't have three winners for the two days.  

Weemissfrankie obvious miss for you.

What form are you reading?

03 Nov 2011 4:34 PM
Jason Shandler

Arnold: Post all of your picks so we can compare. Otherwise, crawl back in the hole you came out of.

03 Nov 2011 4:57 PM
Stevebiscuit

Wow Draynay, you're taking the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choices in the tri, talk about going out on a limb. As of now I like Game On Dude and Flat Out for the win, followed by Ruler On Ice and Drosselmeyer. Amazombie won't take much money in the Sprint and should get the right set up. Underestimate Drill at your own risk.

03 Nov 2011 5:13 PM
josh

Jason,

Good Picks, I didn't know about Dear Lavinia, but now after researching her, she is a must use. Good call!

Juvenile Sprint:

secret circle

shumoos

blacky the bull

Juvenile fillies turf:

Sweet cat

elusive kate

dear lavinia

hard not to like

somali lemonade

Filly and Mare Sprint:

Switch

Turbulent Descent

Great Hot

Juvenile Fillies:

My Miss Aurelia

Weemissfrankie

Northern Passion

Miss Netta

Filly and Mare Turf:

Nahrain

Announce

Stacelita

Misty for Me

Distaff:

Ultra Blend

Plum Pretty

Royal Delta

Patchattack

Marathon:

ALL

Juvenile Turf:

Lucky Chappy

Casper Netcher

Farraaj

Sprint:

Euroears

Giant Ryan

Force Freeze

Apriority (Will not be 30/1!)

Turf Sprint:

Caracortado

Havelock

Regally Ready

Broken Dreams

Dirt Mile:

Wilburn

The Factor

Caleb's Posse

Trappe Shot

Turf:

Sarafina

Sea Moon

Await the Dawn

Midday

Juvenile:

Union Rags

Creative Cause

Drill

Turf Mile:

Goldikova

Couragous Cat

Gio Ponti

Strong Suit

Tureallure

Classic

Flat Out

To Honor and Serve

Havre de Grace

So You Think

Thanks Jason for sharing your picks.

Good Luck to all!

03 Nov 2011 5:17 PM
Bob from Boston

So You Think will take down Mo in the final 16th.  The voices in my head just told me so.

03 Nov 2011 5:40 PM
ALB

Weemissfrankie for sure! Also like Amazombie & Strong Suit! Havre de Grace loves Churchill so I'm going with her!!!

Good Luck Everyone!

03 Nov 2011 5:50 PM
courthouseguy1999

If none of the top 3 YOs win the Ladies' Classic, who do you think gets the Eclipse? If Turbulent Descent wins the F&M Sprint, do you think the voters give it to her? That would be 3 G1 wins, plus the Beaumont. Thoughts?

03 Nov 2011 5:56 PM
Draynay

Juvi Sprint - I just can't see past Secret Circle betting against her is nuts.

Juvi Turf - Samoli Lemonade is my best bet even from a tough post.

Sprint - Turbulent D. is just too good here don't bother trying to beat her.

Juvi - My Miss A. too much speed they will never catch her.

Mare Turf - Nahrain has never been beaten and I don't see it happening now.

Ladies Classic - Speed kills and Plum Pretty has grown up and is now a monster.  Those are my picks and everyone of them is a winner.  I am never wrong.

03 Nov 2011 6:08 PM
Mike Relva

Think Union Rags is too good, he will prevail.

03 Nov 2011 6:10 PM
Alex'sBigFan

Great stuff Jason!  Glad you are with me all the way on Mo!  I think he can do it despite the bad grades the analysts are giving him. Have fun at the BC and how exciting for you it is at your home base.  My picks so far are:

BC Classic:

Uncle Mo

Havre de Grace

Ruler On Ice or Flat Out

TVG played out the race on the Timeform oval and had Havre de Grace winning with Flat Out second. Game On Dude and Mo were leading all the way but fizzled out in the end.  Hard to choose between Havre and Mo and I too would not be upset if Havre won.

Ladies Classic:

Plum Pretty

Royal Delta

Sprint:

Euroears

Big Drama

Amazombie (representing the Afleets)

BC Juvenile:

Union Rags

Creative Cause

Juvenile Turf:

Farraaj  (yes, really!)

I had my photo taken with Al Faraj an Arabian racehorse  a couple years ago so I am picking him, and this Farraaj acted up badly yesterday too!  Should be interesting.

Dirt Mile:

Shack (Gotta back Shack!!!)

The Factor

Tapizar (glad to see him back)

BC Mile:

Goldikova

Courageous Cat

Gio Ponti

Filly & Mare Sprint:

Turbulent Descent

Champagne D'Oro (bred by my friend Rob)

Juvenile Fillies:

Miss Netta (Street Sense's gal)

My Miss Aurelia

Have fun watching and betting everyone.  Good luck to all, all come home safe.

03 Nov 2011 6:28 PM
skyfire

Juvenile Sprint:  Trinniberg

Juvenile Fillies:  Miss Netta, Wemissfrankie

Filly & Mare Turf: Misty for Me, Stacelita

Distaff: Plum Pretty:

Marathon:  Birdrun

Juvenile Turf: Casper Netcher, Finale

Juvenile Fillies Turf:  Dear Lavinia

Juvenile: Union Rags

Mile:  Goldi, Tureallure

Classic:  Mo, Flat Out, Stay Thirsty, Ruler on Ice, Dross

Sprint:  Giant Ryan, Big Drama

Dirt Mile:  Tapizar, The Factor

03 Nov 2011 6:30 PM
The Rock

Friday's Races:

Race 2: Santiva - Hope I get 3-1. Love it.

Race 4: Southern Dude - Get class test, but could be a freak. If odds aren't right, Wine Police.

Juvy Sprint: Secret Circle

BCJvTrf - Customer Base - Same reasons that Jason & Dray like MO. I know the exercise rider and she's been saying for months she's a beast.

Somali Lemonade & Stop Shopping Maria

BCFMSprint - Switch, Turbulent Descent, Tanda

BCJuvy Fillies  - My Miss Aurelia, Grace Hall, Awesome Belle

BCFMTurf - Announce, Misty For Me (if wet), Stacelita, Nahrain

BCDISTAFF - Royal Delta - Sharp, great prep, working great. Hope for value.

It's Tricky, Ultra Blend, Pachattack

Saturday:

Race 1: Jump Up - All day!

Race 2: Salty Strike - Loves CD. Best Bet. Dancinginherdreams will get overbet.

BCMarathon - Pleasant Prince

BCJuvy Turf - Lucky Chappy, Coalport, Fantastic Song

BC Sprint - Hamazing Destiny, Giant Ryan, Jackson Bend

BC Turf Sprint - Regally Ready

BC Dirt Mile - The Factor, Trappe Shot, Wilburn

BC Turf - Euro it!

BC Juvenile - Hansen, Union Rags, Creative Cause

BC Mile - Goldikova, Jeranimo, Gio Ponti, Mr. Commons

BC Classic - So You Think, Havre De Grace, Flat Out

Good Luck Peeps

03 Nov 2011 7:10 PM
Ranagulzion

Here are my picks for Breeder's Cup 2011 (top 3 in each race):

Juv Sprint: Secret Circle, Shumoos, Vexor

Juv Fillies Turf: Somali Lemonade, Elusive Kate, Stopshoppingmaria

F&M Sprint: Pomeroy's Pistol, Turbullent Descent, Switch

BC Juv Fillies: Miss Netta, Grace Hall, My Miss Aurelia

F&M Turf: Stacelita, Shared Account, Misty For Me

BC Distaff(L/Classic): Plum Pretty, Royal Delta, Pachattack

BC Marathon: AU Miner, Brigantin, Meeznah

BC Juv Turf: Finale, Animal Spirits, Lucky Chappy

BC Sprint: Big Drama (soup), Jackson Bend, Giant Ryan

BC Turf Sprint: Hoofit, Caracortado, Great Attack

BC Dirt Mile: Trappe Shot, Tapizar (Tapit exacta), Jersey Town

BC Turf: Sarafina, St Nicholas Abbey, Midday (A Euro clean-up / shame on American breeders)

BC Juvenile: Union Rags (soup), Hansen, Fort Loudon

BC Mile: Goldikova (she's scary good) ...had to relegate my long time favourite Sidney's Candy to the exacta spot; Courageous Cat

BC Classic: the Uncle Mo show (expect the performance of the year in this race).  

Quality Road had trained off last year after Todd Pletcher's failed attempt to preserve his form for a full year dating back to when he was cherry ripe to upset Zenyatta on the now extinct Pro-Ride at Santa Anita but got spooked by Helicopter overhead and enraged by silly gate attendants. Many detractors will not change their minds about QR but I hope that at least those who lump Uncle Mo and Quality Road together as Milers that can't stay ten furlongs will have a change of heart about both horses when Uncle Mo vicariously vindicates QR and Todd Pletcher with a scincillating display on Saturday. Havre de Grace and To Honour and Serve should follow him home at a respectable distance. If there is a surprise it should be for the fourth spot by Ice Box or Rattlesnake Bridge.

Best of luck and lots of fun to all.

03 Nov 2011 7:19 PM
Footlick

Juv Sprint- Holdin Bullets, Secret Circle, Shumoos

Juv F Turf- Dear Lavinia, Elusive Kate, Anne of the Dance

FM Sprint- Tanda, Switch, Golden Mystery

Juv F- Questing, Grace Hall, Weemissfrankie

FM Turf- Announce, Stacelita, Dubawi Heights

Ladies- Pachattack, Royal Delta, Miss Match

Marathon- Brigantin, Meeznah, Cease

Juv Turf- Wrote, Majestic City, Farraaj

Sprint- Euroears, Amazombie, Jackson Bend

T Sprint- Broken Dreams, Havelock

Dirt Mile- The Factor, Tapizar, Caleb's Posse

Turf- Sarafina, St Nicholas Abbey, Await the Dawn

Juv- Daddy Long Legs, Take Charge Indy, Creative Cause

T Mile- Byword, Goldikova, Mr Commons, Sidney's Candy

Classic- So You Think, Flat Out, To Honor and Serve, Stay Thirsty

03 Nov 2011 7:47 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

Your last post on Jason's "Live Longshot" blog made me laugh so much I suffered a headache afterwards ...seriously. That was a good one my friend ...Headache? ...to win the BCC? (LOL).

What I appreciate a lot about your posts is that you give good reason for you picks, no matter how wild.  Good luck my friend ...I guess that a pain in the head is less that pain in the pocket ...don't put too much on him Bro cause we want you to retain some sanity (LOL).  

03 Nov 2011 7:49 PM
2:24

Classic : Havre De Grace, Flat Out, THAS, Game on Dude

MILE: Goldikova, Byword, Gio Pontiac

JUVENILE : Union Rags, Speightscity

Turf: Sea Moon, Await the Dawn

Dirt Mile: Caleb's Posse, Wilburn,  Shackleford

Sprint: Big Drama, Jackson Bend

03 Nov 2011 7:52 PM
merlinmerry

After many sleepless nights of pouring over the form sheets, here are my picks for Friday:

Juv Sprint - Blacky the Bull. (How cute is that name? And having P Val up doesn't hurt.)

Juv Fillies Turf - Up. (SO easy to remember, and what a terrific movie.)

Filly + Mare Sprint - Champagne D' Oro  (What the winners will be drinking!) and - Tar Heel Mom  (Us old ladies have to stick together.)

Juv Fillies - Miss Netta  (Flying at the finish?)  and - Grace Hall  (the right Dutrow and Ramon has the most beautiful eyes...)

Filly + Mare Turf - I'll play Misty For Me  (See what I did there? Terrific Eastwood movie and you can't beat Clint!)

Ladies Classic - Pachattach  (Reminds me of the inimitable Harvey Pack and his racing commentary.  Also, trained by Gerard Butler!  I ADORED Gerard Butler in the movie 300!)

I'm thinking of adding Ultra Blend and Super Expresso to the ticket.  After all, you can't beat a good cup of coffee.

03 Nov 2011 8:23 PM
Brian Russell

Jason, re: Prospective

I knew Vale of York, bet on him, and Prospective is no Vale of York.  This race is not on synthetic and Prospective could not come within a neck in a legitimate European G1 as Vale of York did.  In fact, he would be 100-1 and unlikely to finish in the same postal code.  Vale of York was dropping in class whereas Prospective is taking a massive raise.

03 Nov 2011 8:59 PM
Sucker Bet

Long time lurker. Some great handicappers on this board I greatly enjoy reading.

Love the .50 pick-4s but having a hard time finding singles. With many using Turbulent Descent as a single Friday, I'll cut against the grain and use Switch and Steve's mambo bomb Champaign d'Oro whom I also like to improve cutting back in distance. I'll single My Miss Aurelia, hope she's good enough and spread out four deep in the last two legs. Would be a great ride if I'm still alive after the first two.

The only single I like Saturday is Union Rags but that's by no means a lock in a great field. Love Goldikova and think she should be HOY for her career body of work if she ends her career with a win Saturday. I know the purists disagree but her first win in the Turf Mile as a 3YO was one of the greatest races I've ever seen by any horse and we've been lucky to have her so long. That having been stated, I think the next best one that has a chance to run her down is Strong Suit. I'll use that one with Goldy and another Euro, Byword, in that Pick 4.

If I'm still alive, all hopes for cashing in the late pick 4 will be riding on Drosselmeyer in the Classic. I think most of these are better suited for 8 or 9 panels and the finish could very well resemble last year's Belmont. Hall of Famer and winningest Churchill Downs trainer Bill Mott deserves some love. If he thinks Drosselmeyer belongs in the Classic instead of the Marathon, I want to be on that train. Mike Smith also fits like a glove for that one grinding run down the stretch.

My other hopeful board crashing longshots are Perfect Shirl in the F&M Turf on Friday and Hoofit in the Turf Sprint Saturday.

Thursday rain is blowing out of Louisville and it's looking good for a great weekend of racing. Good luck to everybody this weekend.      

03 Nov 2011 9:28 PM
NASCAR PRO

JS thanx for the RAGS info anyone know if thorograph figs confirm or diverge from what he has posted here.I cant post my picks because I like to play exotics and to come up with my combinations, I use indicators and strategies that I thought up(maybe someone somewhere uses similar tactics)I like to see results for previous races for different reasons.When I used to attend the races live, I would  ask other patrons what were the results for this and that race, a lot of times they would ask me, why do you ask? this race has already passed, its history,and I never said it, but past performances are history and more so than the last few races that ran.I dont believe in statistics as much as most do in the sense that the not absolute science of statistics every race is considered a separate event not related to any of the previous ones.I took stats in college and passed, but I was already a pari-mutual player by that time,having wagered at dog tracks,jai alai,and horseraces.The thing that always bothered me were the number of samples.If you go by stats supposedly if you flip a coin 100 times it should be heads 50% and tails 50%(no fixes involved in coin)of course you know that is not the case either heads or tails will win out in 100 flips.A statistician will argue that you need more samples(more flips)so how many samples do you need?For par-mutual gambling I dont think stats are very accurate in a mathematical sense,there are too many factors that influence the outcome.Stats are more useful for predicting future outcomes in other endeavors but IMO not in pari-mutual gambling.I believe past races can be indicators for the next race.One of the ways a lot of astute horseplayers use this,is in determining track bias.I try to find a bias also,but I use results in other ways too.In the classic I am leaning towards using HDG and THAS but I dont know if I will key them or box them.So I definitely have others in mind.I also follow trainers and I hope to employ this tactic also.

03 Nov 2011 9:30 PM
Paula Higgins

Stacelita

Plum Pretty

Chamberlain Bridge

Euroears

Union Rags

Grace Hall

The Factor

Goldikova

Uncle Mo

03 Nov 2011 9:53 PM
Kevin

Friday, I'm parlaying show bets

Vexor, Stephanies Kitten, Pomeroy Pistol; Grace Hall; Nahrain; Ultra Blend.  

03 Nov 2011 10:35 PM
Larry Sealy

Juvenile Sprint

Holdin Bullets 15/1

Secret Circle 6/5

Blacky The Bull 20/1

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Dear Lavinia 30/1

Somali Lemonade 3/1

Elusive Kate 2/1

Filly & Mare Sprint

Turbulent Descent 6/5

Tamarind Hall 20/1

Pomeroys Pistol 6/1

Juvenile Fillies

My Miss Aurelia 5/2

Miss Netta 15/1

Grace Hall 4/1

Filly & Mare Turf

Announce 9/2

Nahrain 7/2

Stacelita 2/1

Ladies Classic

It's Tricky 5/1

Ultra Blend 8/1

Royal Delta 5/2

Marathon

Eldaafer 10/1

Meeznah 12/1

A.U. Miner 3/1

Juvenile Turf

Lucky Chappy 10/1

Farraaj 15/1

Fantastic Song 20/1

Sprint

Hamazing Destiny 10/1

Jackson Bend 7/2

Big Drama 5/2

Turf Sprint

Hoofit 15/1

Calafornia Flag 15/1

Great Attack 20/1

Dirt Mile

Wilburn 4/1

The Factor 7/2

Jersey Town 15/1

Turf

Sarafina 5/2

Brilliant Speed 20/1

Await the Dawn 7/2

Juvenile

Union Rags 2/1

Take Charge Indy 30/1

Optimizer 15/1

Mile

Goldikova 7/5

Classic

Rattlesnake Bridge 30/1

Havre de Grace 3/1

Flat Out 6/1

03 Nov 2011 10:45 PM
Point Given

Juv Sprint-Secret Circle

JF Turf-Stephanie's Kitten

FM Sprint-Irish GYpsy

Juv Fillies-Candrea

FM Turf-Dubawi Heights

Ladies Classic-Plum Pretty

Maraphon-Harrison's CAave

Juv Turf-Majestic City

Sprint-Euroears

Turf Sprint-Caracortado

Dirt Mile-The Factor, Irrefutable

Juvenile-Drill

Mile-Compliance Officer

Classic-GAME ON DUDE

03 Nov 2011 11:02 PM
trackjack

Thanks for your picks, Jason.  Good Luck.

Friday:

Juvenile Sprint:  Secret Circle

Juvenile Fillies Turf: Stephanie' Kitten, Stopshoppingmaria, Sweet Cat.

Filly/Mare Sprint: Turbulent Descent

Juvenile Fillies: Weemissfrankie, Grace Hall, My Miss Aurelia, Candrea

F/M Turf: Stacelita, Announce, Nahrain

Ladies Classic: Royal Delta, Plum Pretty, It's Tricky.

Saturday

Marathon: A.U. Miner, Eldaafer, Birdrun

Juvenile Turf: Finale, Farraaj, Majestic City

Sprint: Euroears, Jackson Bend, Amazombie

Turf Sprint: Hoofit, Regally Ready, Broken Dreams, Havelock

Dirt Mile: Wilburn, The Factor, Caleb's Posse.

Turf: Midday, Sarafina, Await the Dawn.

Juvenile: Union Rags, Creative Cause, Alpha.

Mile: Courageous Cat, Goldikova, Byword, Gio Ponti.

Classic: So You Think, Flat Out, To Honor and Serve, Game On Dude.      No Mo.

Good Luck to all and enjoy the best racing in the world!

03 Nov 2011 11:03 PM
Tiznowbaby

Distaff: Plum Pretty, Miss Match, Royal Delta

Filly/Mare Tuf: Stacelita, Cambina, Harmonious

Dirt Mile: The Factor, Caleb's Posse, Tapizar

Filly/Mare Sprint: Switch, Turbulent Descent, Pomeroys Pistol

Juv Fillies: Weemissfrankie, Miss Netta, My Miss Aurelia

Sprint: Euroears, Amazombie, Big Drama

Turf: Sarafina, Midday, Await the Dawn

Juv Sprint: Secret Circle, Shumoos, Seeker

Turf Sprint: Regally Ready, Caracortado, Holiday for Kitten

Marathon: Birdrun, Cease, A.U. Miner

Juv Filly Turf: Hard Not to Like, Elusive Kate, Sweet Cat

Juv Turf: Finale, Shkspeare Shaliyah, Lucky Chappy

Juv: Union Rags, Drill, Hansen

Mile: Goldi, Gio, Courageous Cat

Classic: Flat Out, So You Think, Game On Dude, THAS

03 Nov 2011 11:16 PM
Ivan

Juvenile Sprint: Secret Circle, Blacky the Bull, Vexor

Juvy Fillies Turf: Elusive Kate, Somali Lemonade, Stephanie's Kitten

Filly and Mare Sprint: Turbulent Descent, Golden Mystery, Pomeroy Pistol

Juvy Fillies: My Miss Aurelia, Candrea, Grace Hall

Filly and Mare Turf: Misty for Me, Nahrain, Stacelita

Ladies Classic: Plum Pretty, Ultra Bend, It's Tricky

Marathon: A U Miner, Pleasant Prince, Brigantin

Juvy Turf: Wrote, Finale, Majestic City

Sprint: Jackson Bend, Euroears, Big Drama

Turf Sprint: Caracortado, Broken Dreams, Regally Ready

Dirt Mile: Trappe Shot, Caleb's Posse, Wilburn

Turf: Sea Moon, St. Nicholas Abbey, Sarafina

Juvenile: Union Rags, Daddy Long Legs, Creative Cause

Mile: Strong Suit, Goldikova, Byword

Classic: Uncle Mo, Havre de Grace, Ruler on Ice

Good Luck.

04 Nov 2011 12:19 AM
bredblog.com

Jason

I saw on The Works on TVG that Creative Cause was kicked by his pony.  I am hoping that he is okay and was wondering if anyone had heard anything.  I like him and Hansen in the Juvenile.  What can I say I love the grays.

04 Nov 2011 1:12 AM
RS

Miss Match and Drosselmeyer in the Ladies Classic and Classic

04 Nov 2011 1:46 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Friday

F&M Sprint-Golden Mystery

Juv Fillies-Weemissfrankie

F&M Turf-Harmonious

Ladies Classic-Royal Delta

Saturday

Marathon Pleasant Prince and Afleet Again

Juv Turf-Majestic City

Sprint-Amamzombie and Apriority

Turf Sprint-Holiday For Kitten

Dirt Mile-Tres Borrachos

Turf-Dean's Kitten

Juvenile in order-Hansen, Creative Cause, Union Rags, Dullahan, Alpha.

Mile Turf-Goldikova and Mr. Commons

Classic in order-Ruler On Ice, Flat Out, Uncle Mo, Drosselmeyer and box them for everything.

04 Nov 2011 1:53 AM
spectacular bid

seems anytime i leave a less then postive comment about pletcher, it doesnt get posted but i will try one last time.

'MO" is this years quality road. while i dont think mo will be last, i DO think he has no shot at finishing in the top half of the field.. seriously, hes just another freaky fast, bred to be that way, miler that was great at 2 because of the speed he gets from indian charlie..sorry guys, im not on board..and will gladly admit im wrong on sunday if he wins. as for the winner, im not a pletcher fan but i'll take stay thirsty, "gracie" in an exacta box.

love 'Switch" on friday , CREATIVE cause in the juvenile..good luck to everyone

04 Nov 2011 2:10 AM
KY VET

BREEDERS CUP SELECTIONS.....FRI.

SECRET CIRCLE

SOMALI LEMONADE

SWITCH

MYMISSAURELIA

ANNOUNCE

ITS TRICKY

SAT. CUP SELECTIONS

CEASE

CASPAR NECTAR**best bet**

AMAZOMBIE

CORACATATO

TRAP SHOT

MIDDAY

UNION RAGS

GODIKOVA** best bet**

SO YOU THINK (LOVE TO SEE MO WIN)

04 Nov 2011 2:28 AM
thomas

JUV Sprint: secret circle with trinniberg and jake mo

JUVF Turf: stephanies kitten, stop shopping maria and customer base.

F and M Sprint: turbluent descent with tanda, pomeroys pistol and tar heel mom

JuvF: Wemissfrankie and grace hall

F and M turf: Dubawi heights with harmonious and shared account

Distaff: Miss match and royal delta

These are the horses i plan on boxing for day 1.

Good Luck Everyone!!!

04 Nov 2011 2:29 AM
Coldfacts

Breeders Cup Classic – Uncle Mo

A) He is doing fantastic right now; as well as he was when coming into the Kelso. The rumors about him not being right are complete garbage.

Comments prior to the Wood Memorial:

“On paper this race seems a joke”; “Uncle Mo should win this one going away, and is the best horse in the Wood Memorial by quite a distance”

Seven months later he is again the best horse in the Breeder Cup Classic. He was the best horse in the Kings Bishop and Wood and he lost to horses that are far less accomplished than those in the BCC line up.  My assessment of his work before his day off is “Lethargic “Compare his workouts to those of To honor and Server and you will see THS pulling his rider out of the saddle to do more. I was of the opinion that professionals set emotions aside and sick to facts.   I remain convinced all is not well with UM.

B) He's fast. If you believe in the Rags and other speed numbers he will have the lead at the eighth-pole. Good luck catching him.

He was the leader at the eight pole in the Wood and he was caught. He is not the only one in the field that is fast. There is no pace he can set to get away from THS who has a much smoother stride pattern. He will not have he lead at the eight pole as that honor will go to THS.

C) I like his draw. He is outside of Game on Dude, so he won't have to take all the heat. He can follow him for a mile and make his move.

THS is so sharp right now it is likely that he will lead the BCC into the first turn. Uncle Mo cannot run by a 1:35 horse at will. Let’s not forget THS recorded 1:35 for a mile at four different tracks. He is now a much improved colt.

D) He has a two-turn win over the track, which only one other horse can boast.

Agreed! However, against whom? BAT,  Boindettie  & Rouge Romance. Arazie had no experience of the CD track and he flew in and destroyed the best 2Yos in the UAS. Not a strong positive.

He might not win but I think Mo will run a big race. Too many think he's going to pull a Quality Road. That's not happening.

The same could be said about any of the fancied contenders. I am one who believes he will finish down the track. It has nothing to do with his ability to get 10F. He lacks foundation and his works at CD suggest he is not well. I do not believe he is ready to deliver the 2:00 or 2:01 it will take to win the 2011 BCC.

Thirty two 3YOs have contested the seven BCC held at CD and only two won. Below are their last two races preceding their victory:

Tiznow: 1st  9F Goodwood Gll     1:47.38

               1st  10FSuper Derby Gl  1:59.84

Concern: 2nd 10FSuper Derby Gl  2:03.40

                 2nd 10FTravers Gl            2:02.00

Tiznow was a much better 3YO than Uncle Mo. As for Concern he had the misfortune of being a 3YO in the era of Cigar and Holy Bull. Does anyone seriously believe Uncle Mo with off 7 & 8F races can win the most grueling 10F race in the US. He would have to be a super horse or be running against claimers.

For the exotic bet players at least one 3YO has finished n the top 4 in the BCCs contested at CD. Ironically they swept the board on both occasion there was a 3YO victor.

04 Nov 2011 7:12 AM
Medlocke

Draynay, Once again you make me laugh with ridiculous dribble. I think because of how lightly raced he is that Uncle Mo likely still has a lot of untapped potential. But that said, I don't care if they raced on conventional dirt, synthetics, turf, or across a Wall-Mart parking lot on asphalt? Frankel would leave Uncle Mo for dead in about 2 or 3 strides. On any surface. Canford Cliffs had been one of the fastest horses in the world at a mile, and Frankel left him absolutely for dead in 2 or 3 big bounds. You can believe he'd do exactly the same thing to Uncle Mo. Even on conventional dirt. Frankel truly is a freak of nature. There's a big difference Draynay between really good horses and great horses. Really good horses tend to only run well on their preferred surface. Like Uncle Mo on dirt. Great horses, like Frankel, could run and win on any surface simply because of the amount of raw natural ability that he has. I believe this year's BC Classic is going to be a very good example of just exactly what I'm talking about. We have several very good conventional dirt horses in the Classic field, and  we have one great horse in So You Think in the field. If he handle's that surface switch even a little bit? The American horses are all running for 2nd place money in the Classic. Because So You Think is truly a cut above these horses at 1-1/4, and his lifetime record bears that fact out. TJMO.

04 Nov 2011 7:14 AM
Medlocke

So You Think to win

Flat Out to place

Havre De Grace to show, and box this tri-fecta. IMO, Uncle Mo is the biggest lay of the entire 2 days of racing in the Breeders Cup. Nothing in his pedigree, or what we've seen out of him on the track either suggest that Uncle Mo will stay the 1-1/4 trip in the BC Classic. Much less trying to tackle the number of horses in this field that are already proven G1 stakes winners at the 1-1/4 distance. The wide PP draw certainly didn't help Mo's chances in this race either. I honestly thought it was laughable that Mo was installed as the morning line favorite for the BC Classic with the likes of Flat Out, Havre De Grace, Stay Thirsty, Game On Dude, and So You Think all with G1 stakes wins at 1-1/4. Since when does a 2nd place finish to Caleb's Posse in the G1 King's Bishop over 7f, and a win over Jackson Bend at a mile in the G2 Kelso qualify as the kind of resume' to make this horse the BC Classic favorite??

04 Nov 2011 7:20 AM
steve from st louis

I'm going to parlay wheeling Goldikova second with Union Rags and WeemissFrankie. Also the same with The Factor and the two juveniles. That's enough.Pigs get slaughtered. If I had the onions, I'd throw in Flat Out but he could have left his race in his blowout.

04 Nov 2011 8:01 AM
Easygoer67

Juvy Sprint-Secret Circle

Juvy Filly Turf-Stopshoppingmaria

F/M Sprint-Turbulent Descent

Juvy Filly-Grace Hall

F/M Turf-Stacelita

Ladies Classic-Royal Delta

Marathon-Brigantin

Juvy Turf-Majestic City

Sprint-Amazombie

Turf Sprint-Regally Ready

Dirt Mile-Caleb's Posse

Turf-Sarafina

Turf Mile-Courageous Cat

Classic-Flat Out

04 Nov 2011 9:02 AM
Easygoer67

Juvy-Union Rags

04 Nov 2011 9:03 AM
Pedigree Ann

I guess you folks didn't read my post on the earlier column. NO US-RACED HORSE HAS WON THE CLASSIC WITHOUT AT LEAST ONE WIN AT 9F. And the vast majority had run in races of 10f or more at least once. Uncle Mo is not going to change that. Bad luck to those of you who have drunk the Kool-Aid.

Question in the Distaff is - who is better, the top 3yo fillies or the second level older mares? The top mares aren't here - Havre de Grace, Blind Luck, Awesome Maria - so I go with the fillies. Royal Delta was at a disadvantage in the Beldame on the speed-favoring sealed track, still showed she was better than the type of the elders she meets here - a good prep. Now primed to fire her best.

Also, in turf races of 5f and 8f at CD, outside posts (outside of 8 or 10) are DEATH. It's too bad that so many of the horses who figure are drawn wide, but that gives us bettors a chance to score big.  

04 Nov 2011 9:17 AM
Anoldhorseplayer

Jason,

I owe you an apology and humbly deliver it here. You have a tough job not only handicapping but carrying a public forum for discussion of possible BC winners two days in advance. My acerbic email reflected our disagreement on day 2 and my over-reaction to your fawning of Uncle Mo. I think he has a chance to hit the board but hardly a betting value. In fairness to your comment about me posting my picks…. here’s my selections for the two days.

* indicates I’m betting this horse and BB=my best bet for day.

Fri.  Secret Circle

Elusive Kate

Turbulent Descent

Weemissfrankie * BB

Stacelita

Royal Delta

Sat. Brigatin *

Casper Netscher *

Jackson Bend

Hoofit *

Wilburn *

Sea Moon * BB

Daddy Long Legs *

Strong Suit *

So You Think *

Obviously I see Fri. as chalk day and pretty much plan to save $$ for value bets on Sat., when I think the Europeans will be dominant in several.  

In the future I will agree to disagree without being disagreeable. If we both get the same five winners we have in common…..we’ll probably lose $$ and I will eat crow.

Best of luck.

An Old "Cranky" Horseplayer (not Arnold).

04 Nov 2011 9:19 AM
Matthew W

Pure Logic, (juvy-filly-turf), is a true miler! Both of her wins (at boxcar odds) were easy wins, after waiting like a turf horse on the inside--she even steadied in her last race, her first over turf--a race that played out several seconds faster than did the male version of the same race, run that same afternoon! And this: her work pattern, in Sept: strong work on the 18th, slow work on the 27th then the big turf win...Oct was the same, fast work on the 18th, slow work on the 27th--same pattern right to the day! Flying under the radar! Has won twice, at boxcars, and in her latest she looked much the best the whole way around! They paid 100K to run her so they're putting their money where their mouths are--and so am I!

04 Nov 2011 9:19 AM
Runfast159

Picks:

Juvenile Sprint: Secret Circle

Juvenile Fillies Turf: StopshoppingMaria

Somali Lemonade

Filly & Mare Spring:

Turbulent Descent

Pomeroy's Pistol

Juvenile Fillies:

My Miss Aurelia

Grace Hall

Miss Netta

Filly/Mare Turf:

Announce

Stacelita

Dubawi Heights

Ladies Classic:

Plum Pretty

Royal Delta

Ask The Moon

Marathon:

Harrison's Cave

AU Minor

Cease

Giant Oak

Juvenile Turf:

Finale

Shkspeare Shaliyah

Sprint: top to bottom probably the most contentious field

Euroears

Big Drama

Giant Ryan

Turf Sprint:

Camp Victory

Havelock

Broken Dreams

Dirt Mile: Another very contentious race. I wish Jackson Bend was here.

Wilburn

Trappe Shot

Calebs Posse

Jerseytown

Turf:

Sarafina

Sea Moon

Juvenile:

Union Rags. I had a dream Matz won a Breeders Cup race!

Mile:

Goldikova

Courageous Cat

Gio Ponti

Turralure

Classic:

Flat Out

To Honor & Serve

Havre de Grace

Drosselmeyer

I know I've left Uncle Mo and So You Think, obvious betting favorites, out of my selections.  But Uncle Mo is going to have to beat me here.  He HAS to be all that and more to win at this distance, at only his 3rd try beyond a mile.  Didn't love his last work.

So You Think - Another horse that is going to have to prove it.  This will be his 4th start in 10 weeks, the travel, first start on dirt... really?

Havre de Grace - the best horse in the field but she looks light to me and may be coming into this race a step behind where she was a few months ago.

Good luck to all!!

04 Nov 2011 10:06 AM
Giddyup

My money is still on UM being scratched.

04 Nov 2011 10:40 AM
Draynay

Uncle Mo would whip Frankel on dirt.  I have seen Uncle Mo run a 133 mile in thick mud it's not hard to imagine him running a 132 on dry ground what is Frankel going to do run a 131 ?  Stop the nonsense.  Frankel is a great turf horse but don't pretend that makes him a great dirt horse.  I remember being told last year that the great State Restricted Poly Champion could run on anything.  Well she ran against the best on dirt and got whipped.  Same thing would happen to Frankel.  He would get whipped.

04 Nov 2011 10:43 AM
BidAskSpread

Friday:

Juvenile Sprint:

-Secret Circle

-Shumoos

-Holdin Bullets

Juvenile Fillies Turf:

-Customer Base

-Dear Lavinia

-Hard Not To Like

Filly & Mare Spring:

-Turbulent Decent  

Juvenile Fillies:

-Northern Passion

-Grace Hall

-My Miss Aurelia

Filly/Mare Turf:

-Misty For Me

-Stacelia

-Nahrain

Ladies Classic:

-It's Tricky

-Royal Delta

-Ultra Bend

Saturday:

Classic:

-Stay Thirsty

04 Nov 2011 10:55 AM
furlongs

Breeders Cup picks:

Marathon:  Really could care a less to be honest what a horrible race to be listed as a Breeders Cup race, what is next BC Starter Allow? Going to take GIANT OAK who was favorite in this race last year and moved way to soon in his last race and has been facing some top horses all year long.  That move at Gulfstream early in the year is not something you see often so hoping that last race set him up for a top effort.

Juv. Turf: I think the Summer Stakes at Woodbine was a solid race so I will take both FINALE (tuff post) and DADDY NOSE BEST and also look to use CASPAR NETSCHER with Karren Fallon in to ride. If FINALE had a better post I would have no problems locking him in as a single.

Sprint: This may be the worse Sprint ever! I mean Big Drama is 5-2 off 2 races and only a Grade 3 win early in the year. I will take a stand against Big Drama even though if he wins I would not be surprised at all. Euroears what do you do from the rail??  He is the fastest gate horse without a doubt in the race. Jackson Bend I don’t know thinking he is more a 7 F  or 8 F horse.  FORCE FREEZE is the bet with that HUGE Jockey change and of course if speed folds which it very well could Mike Smith could have AMAZOMBIE in the right spot. Those are the two horses I will use.

Turf Sprint: Without a doubt the toughest race to handicap on the card! So many possibilities here. Going to take a flyer in this race PERECT OFFICER. I love that he was close to Ben’s Cat in a huge turf race at Parx racetrack. He is a price and looks as good as most in here and the trainer is not the kind of guy to bring a horse if he is not well meant.  

Dirt Mile:  The 3 year olds this year well lets just say outside of Uncle Mo when he is right look down right average. Anytime you have a different winner of every 3 year old prep throughout the year that says to me they all are equal and you can’t possibly have that many top horses in a crop. I will take a stand against the 3 year olds in this race and think TRAPPE SHOT is very well meant in this spot. As a nice long shot I will also use JERSEY TOWN who owns a Grade 1 win at a Mile and has been running against top horses and can without a doubt upset this bunch! For those of you that like Wilburn who I think will be over bet, I do think Shackleford will make a good account of himself in this race as well. He was on the outside the entire trip at Hoosier where Wilburn received the perfect inside trip. If you ever been to Hoosier Park which I have many times over the last several years inside has a HUGE advantage.

BC Turf: Wow is the American horse really this bad on the grass anymore??  Euros’ will rule like everyone knows. Take SARAFINA and SEA MOON and be done with it.

Juvenile: UNION RAGS race to lose. I expect Baffert, Pletcher and Assumusen to have big name horses in this race, I do not look at a guy like Michael Matz to have a horse this early with this much talent so kind of says everything. I was at Turfway Park and without a doubt Hanson was the most impressive that day but he beat nothing! BIG Jock switch out on the lead maybe he will be tough to catch, but at this point UNION RAGS looks like a solid favorite on a tough Breeders Cup card.

Mile: What we all are looking forward to!! GOLDIKOVA looks tough as always and that is who I will take. I will also make a stand against Gio Ponti this year in the Exacta bets. He had a very easy trip last out at Keeneland.  I will take some horses under GOLDIKOVA minus Gio Ponti (who is a fan favorite and will be the lowest Ex payout) and hope to land a nice price horse in the second spot. If  DRAYNAY is going to hit a pick 3 on Breeders Cup day this is the one… Euros’ + Union Rags + Goldikova  without a doubt chalk city Pick 3 and this is the one he will be bragging about come Sunday on the blogs!!

Breeders Cup Classic:  Make this simple for everyone.  FLAT OUT or HAVRE DE GRACE to win with Stay Thirsty, Ruler on Ice and Drosselmeyer picking up the pieces. Between those 5 horses I think you have the Exacta and Trifecta. I have no idea what to do with So You Think, but I know history is not good for horses like him in the Classic so making a stand against. The Woodward was the best race in 2011 and FLAT OUT and HAVRE DE GRACE were right there together.  GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!

04 Nov 2011 11:42 AM
Coldfacts

Juvenile Sprint

Sum Of The Parts - Sons of Seattle Slew that are not A P Indy appear to be good broodmare sires. Slews Royalty can join Avenues Of Flag (Midshipman)

Secret Circle- Dixieland Band mares are the best .

Shumoos - Unraced mares have a  record of producing some good ones (Black Caviar, Curlin, Invasor Candy Ride}

Jake Mo - No horse sired by Giacomo out of a With Approval broodmare should be sprinting. Interesting

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Up- Galileo filly with no inbreeding in her first 5 generations; dam lightly races; won a mile comfortably; all positives

My Gi Gi - Sire by Mr. P’s fastest son; dam sire by Northern Dancer best son as a sire and broodmare sire; All good

Pure Gossip-- Produced from an unraced Dixieland Band mare; winner of first attempt routing and on turf; That’s all one needs to know.

Elusive Kate - Elusive Quality a filly that with class. Lemon Drop Kid not a great broodmare sire. (Only Negative)

Filly & Mare Sprint

Pomeroys Pistol

Shotgun Gulch

Golden Mystery

Tar Heel Mom

Juvenile Fillies

Questing

Northern Passion

My Miss Aurelia

Say A Novena

Filly & Mare Turf

Nahrain

Announce.

Aruna

Dubawi Heights.

Ladies Classic

Pachattack

Royal Delta.

Ask The Moon

Miss match

04 Nov 2011 12:06 PM
-Keelerman

I still haven't finished choosing my picks for Saturday, but here are my Friday selections:

(Top three, in order of preference:)

Juvenile Sprint: Secret Circle, Holdin Bullets, Shumoos

Juvenile Fillies Turf: Dear Lavinia, Stopshoppingmaria, Customer Base

Filly & Mare Sprint: Switch, Turbulent Descent, Champagne d'Oro

Juvenile Fillies: My Miss Aurelia, Grace Hall, Miss Netta

Filly & Mare Turf: Announce, Stacelita, Shared Account

Ladies' Classic: Royal Delta, Plum Pretty, Ultra Blend

-Keelerman

04 Nov 2011 12:34 PM
turfking

Don't get me wrong Mo is a real nice horse BUT if he wins on Sat. I'll eat the Racing Form

04 Nov 2011 12:55 PM
street sense

welcome to christmas horse players now lets take home our gifts. i won't give my pick's for all the races just a couple of long shot plays. the breeder's cup mile turf look's like goldikova crowning but not so fast i dare to take her down.(MR COMMONS) is a fast developing three year old by a former winner of this race who has the right style to lay close and score at a big price. last out in the oak tree mile he finished fast and just missed at a time of 132.3 this race has produced the most winners of this race from north american based runners. with the queen Z in foal mr john S is back in the breeders cup winners circle.i have posted before about how i think RULER ON ICE WILL WIN THE BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC. lets refresh you he chased a wicked pace in the pa derby and gave weight to the winner and still was closing fast.money rider garrett gomez in the tack only helps the cause.so there we have it. i remember one of best long shot plays VOLPONI in the 2002 classic i was the only one making noise during the end of the race. good luck to all. ps i also had STREET SENSE in the 2006 bc juv that how i chose my name.

04 Nov 2011 1:10 PM
turfking

UPSET SPECIALS U know their gonna happen so take a shot! Goldikova, wonderful animal gettin along in years and had lots of tuff races, likes firm turf and by Sat. it might be. Jeranimo gettin played across by me. Hard not to Like is a nice filly by Hard Spun could like some give in the ground. Good Luck to all and always bet what U like not anyone elses picks!

04 Nov 2011 1:16 PM
steve from st louis

I forgot to mention my play in Nahrain, who goes in Filly Turf. Trainer Varian hasn't missed a beat with this one after taking over for one of the best in the late Michael Jarvis, who died a little more than a month ago after suffering from prostate cancer.

04 Nov 2011 1:27 PM
Footlick

Dray- and Frankel would eat Uncle Mo for breakfast on European turf, so what are you trying to say?  Of course he is better on dirt since Frankel doesn't run on dirt.  What a ridiculous statement.  

04 Nov 2011 2:23 PM
Householder

So You Can Think.  It's like his 3rd race in 30 days plus a cross Atlantic plane ride!  No way.

04 Nov 2011 3:14 PM
Mike Relva

TD, Union Rags, Royal Delta will win.

04 Nov 2011 5:14 PM
-Keelerman

Trackjack;

Nice call on the Juvenile Fillies Turf!

04 Nov 2011 5:45 PM
furlongs

Juvi Sprint - I just can't see past Secret Circle betting against her is nuts.

Juvi Turf - Samoli Lemonade is my best bet even from a tough post.

Sprint - Turbulent D. is just too good here don't bother trying to beat her.

Juvi - My Miss A. too much speed they will never catch her.

Mare Turf - Nahrain has never been beaten and I don't see it happening now.

Ladies Classic - Speed kills and Plum Pretty has grown up and is now a monster. Those are my picks and everyone of them is a winner. I am never wrong.

Draynay 03 Nov 2011 6:08 PM

Lets see Draynay you never seem to disappoint do you!!

Secret Circle- 2/5 at post and not a filly moron he is a colt nice job! $2.80 Win

Samoli Lemonade- 4-1 second choice

Turbulent Descent- 7/5 huge favorite

My Miss Aurella- Ray Charles saw her winning that race, post time favorite. $6.20 Win

Nahrain- 5/2 second choice

Plum Pretty- 3-1 second choice

Recap:

$2 Win bet on each horse costs $12.00 total.

Total return on your $2.00 win investment $9.00 which equals a loss for the day.

Looks like you are wrong two thirds of the time on horses that are to short to play to begin with! Will you ever learn? Bottom line you win when the horse that looks best on paper wins. You have no real handicapping ability when it comes to finding horses that are ready to pop at price.

04 Nov 2011 7:39 PM
tcc

Juvi Sprint - I just can't see past Secret Circle betting against her is nuts.

Juvi Turf - Samoli Lemonade is my best bet even from a tough post.

Sprint - Turbulent D. is just too good here don't bother trying to beat her.

Juvi - My Miss A. too much speed they will never catch her.

Mare Turf - Nahrain has never been beaten and I don't see it happening now.

Ladies Classic - Speed kills and Plum Pretty has grown up and is now a monster.  Those are my picks and everyone of them is a winner.  I am never wrong.

Draynay 03 Nov 2011 6:08 PM.

You might want to revisit your handicapping for tomorrow, if you want more winners then you had today. This is from your post yesterday,anyone betting on longshots will be sad on Friday and may be rewarded on Saturday but good luck picking 1 or 2 longshots.  Friday and Saturday will be won by favorites and 2nd choices. Draynay 02 Nov 2011 4:29 PM. Longshots on Friday.

Race 7 Musiacal Romance

Race 9 Perfect Shirl

These beat some of your chalk picks listed above.

04 Nov 2011 8:02 PM
Kevin

Got 1/2 of my show bets in the money.  Nothing to brag about but came out even for the day.  

04 Nov 2011 8:14 PM
Stevebiscuit

Great handicapping Draynay! The only horses you won with paid $0.40 to the dollar and $2.10. Thank goodness we have you to tell us who not to bet on. Thanks for the $$, give us some more underlays you call your "picks".

04 Nov 2011 8:44 PM
Skip

Someone once said Draynay is here for comic relief. I say he's here to make us all feel better about our own handicapping skills, since his are so bad. Can anyone say chalk?  I doubt Draynay can spell it.

He says he hangs out with Jason at the races a lot. I say Jason should run the other direction as fast as he can before his handicapping stays as bad as Draynays.

I'm hoping for a win by Flat Out tomorrow. I have a longshot in the juvy. I would give it but a desperate Draynay might bet it and inflict his losers jinx and my bet will already bring the odds down.

04 Nov 2011 10:21 PM
trackjack

Keelerman: Nice call on the Juvenile Sprint.  I hoped you boxed them.

BidAskSpread:  Good call also on the Juvenile Sprint. Box?

04 Nov 2011 10:51 PM
thomas

keelerman

good call in the Juv Sprint.

04 Nov 2011 10:52 PM
merlinmerry

I totally tanked.  I blame the Martians.

04 Nov 2011 10:55 PM
Johnny

Had a decent day on the ladies...

Like some horses with a price tomorrow.

Juvy Turf: 3

Sprint 2

Dirt Mile pounding Tapizar 3

Turf: 8 Brillant speed

Classic: To Honor Serve with Ruler on Ice making it in the $$$

Good luck to all

04 Nov 2011 10:57 PM
GunBow

Friday was fairly typical as far as Breeder's Cup days go.  You had 3 favorites win(Secret Circle, My Miss Aurelia, and Proud Delta), a logical mid-price horse(Stephanie's Kitten), and two horses that only made sense post-facto(Muscial Romance, Perfect Shirl).

In terms of regional performance, 2 winners were from the home team Kentucky, 2 from New York, 1 from Canada(Woodbine), and 1 from California.

My Miss Aurelia locked up the Juvy Filly Eclipse, Proud Delta the 3 Yr Old Filly Eclipse, and you have to give the female sprinter Eclipse to Musical Romance(underrated body of work).  The Female Turf Eclipse was thrown into chaos.  Perfect Shirl's resume is very light outside of her Breeder's Cup score.  Does one give Stacelita a pass?  Or maybe wait for the Matriarch where Never Retreat will go for yet another graded stakes win?

Both the dirt and turf courses were very tiring, and that certainly advantaged the stalkers/closers and horses with experience over demanding dirt and turf courses.  Speed horses that prepped over the concrete dirt courses like Santa Anita and PARX struggled.  When Secret Circle tired in the stretch and only won by a length, you could hear it in Baffert's voice that he was concerned; on a really fast track Secret Circle would have won by 4.  He knew Plum Pretty's chances had become much slimmer.

As a SoCal homer I'm not feeling optimistic about "my" horses for tomorrow, unless the dirt course speeds up considerably and the turf course dries out.  Like with Saratoga this summer, the SoCal horses simply have no experience running over a deep and tiring dirt surface.  Running over Churchill Friday was like running an extra sixteenth of a mile compared to running at Santa Anita, and we saw this dramatically with Plum Pretty (and even Secret Circle).  If the track remains like this tomorrow, I just don't see Euroears lasting, don't see The Factor getting a mile, and don't see Game on Dude having much of a shot at 10 furlongs.

I also think Uncle Mo and Havre de Grace might struggle more with a deep track.  Uncle Mo is going from a one turn mile to 10 furlongs with a questionable distance pedigree, and now has to do it over a deep track?  Listen, he's a great talent, but he's going to have to be an all-timer to win and he offers no betting value.

Havre de Grace is an admirable mare, but the fact is she is 0 for 2 at 10 furlongs and was losing ground both times.  The distance and the surface are going to push her to her limits.

First Dude would have been my Classic selection had he remained healthy.  While I see holes in Mo and Havre, I really don't like anyone else much.  If Blame were in this field I would take him 5 times over.  Flat Out appears closest to being a "Blame", but trust me, he's no Blame.

04 Nov 2011 11:08 PM
GunBow

I write this as a supporter of California racing, but if it wasn't for Baffert would Cali racing be competitive in international events such as the Breeder's Cup, at least when the Breeder's Cup is away from California?  

Home track advatantage is huge anywhere, but the Cali contingent might benefit more than anyone else when the BC is held in their home state.  Cali horses have performed extremely well at "home" BC, with the exception of the 97' BC at Hollywood.  Outside of California, the Cali contingent has met with only moderate success(but there would always be a Lit de Justice, Thor's Echo, or Dakota Phone).

Outside of California, the state's best chance typically rests with Baffert.  I wish guys like Peter Miller, Spawr, Koriner, Mitchell, Machowsky, Martin Jones, Harrington, Sherriffs, and Pender the best of luck, but if a Cali horse breaks through on Sunday it's more likely to be coming from the Baffert barn.

04 Nov 2011 11:43 PM
Draynay

1)  I like the 1 horse Shared Heart... I think the track will be fast and this will get our speed track off to a good start.

2)  If speed is holding you have to love the 2 in this race Lady Giacamo.  Dancing has done nothing and Salty Strike doesn't scare me.

3) Pleasant Prince is simply a better horse than all of these but I will have $ on Brigantin and have him on my ticket because I KNOW he can get the distance.

4) The 8 Majestic City is the best in a tough race.

5.) 5 Jackson Bend will see plenty of speed and clean them all up.  His win will scare everyone in the Classic.

6) I think Regally Ready has the best spot here but Havelock will be on my tickets too.

7) 5 Wilburn wins and wins easy

8) 9 Midday he always shows up in the biggest races

9) I think Creative Cause runs down Hansen late.  The 10 post is too much for Union Rags.

10) Goldie wins and goes down as the greatest Mare in Classic Racing !

11)  Uncle Mo takes off at the top of the stretch and Havre tries to go with him but gets caught late for 2nd by Flat Out.  Mo by 5.

Good luck everyone and remember to send half you winnings to my PO Box.  This wisdom is not free you know.

05 Nov 2011 12:34 AM
KY VET

DRAYNAY is a beginner, but he was 2 out of 6 ..33 percent.  i was 2 of 5 with 2 seconds...40 percent. i stayed out of secret cirle race..huge bet on aurelia.wp on switch and tricky....small profit...4 races bet 1 win 2 seconds 1 out...tomorrow looks better.............shhh caspar!

05 Nov 2011 12:37 AM
Criminal Type

Hey Dray, how do you like Me now?  LOL ! Secret Circle in the juvi sprint.(singled him)

My Miss Aurelia, Grace Hall and Weemissfrankie in the Juvenile fillies.(Isn't that a trifacta ?)

Royal Delta and It's Tricky (yes, Dray I know NOTHING)in the Distaff (2 of 3). Just so we are clear Dray, Liking It's Tricky has nothing to do with Uncle Mo. She's a very nice filly. So far, Uncle Mo has not shown me enough to make me like him and I've never been a Pletcher fan. His stable reminds me of a puppy mill for some, probably irrational, reason.

Stephanie's Kitten & Stopshoppingmaria in the Juvi fillies turf (2 of 3 )

Her Smile and Switch in the Filly and Mare sprint (2 of 3)

And I caught a piece of the F & M Turf with Misty for Me. Had she not fallen to her knees leaving the gate, she would have finished better. Shared Account was 5 and 6 wide the whole way around and it cost her dearly. I am not making excuses, but I think it's time for Kevin Plank to send her to the breeding shed.  

So, Fridays in the record books and a new day begins. I did pretty well considering. Still think I know nothing Dray? If you bet what you said you would, like I did, Your not really doing so well are you ? Jason, Although I am in no way critiquing your picks, Your not doing so great either are you ? I think it's apparent who knows nothing, Dray.

Does anyone know the condition of Dynaslew this morning ? She was a little lame in her right front but looked to be bearing weight on all 4 feet. Also, poor Announce, But the new procedures put in place after last years Life at Ten debacle are doing their job. The connections were outraged. However, in hindsight, given the fact she had to have stiches to close a cut in her right hindquarters, it was a great call by the veterinary staff. Ditto Shotgun Gultch who looked uninterested and lethargic, much like Life At Ten last year, in the post parade. Best of Luck to everyone and to all the horses, come home safely.

One more thing, I am adjusting my picks for the Classic and Juvenile since I did so well yesterday I can afford to spend a little more today. First the Juvenile, I'm still Taking Union Rags to win, but with him will take Dullahan, Creative Cause, Drill and Hansan. In the Classic, it will be So You Think, Flat Out, HDG and Stay Thirsty. Royal Delta's win sure made HDG look good.

How bout Absinthe Minded and Buckleupbuttercup in the Chilukki at the end of the day?

05 Nov 2011 5:53 AM
Criminal Type

LOL @ Skip and Stevebiscuit.

05 Nov 2011 5:55 AM
Forbidden Apple

After my win bets on Switch and Misty For Me fell short, I finally made a score in the Ladies Classic. I hit the exacta many times, but I thought the $32 payout was a bit short.

Marathon: Cease

Juv. Turf: Animal Spirits,State Of Play,Fantastic Song

Sprint: Euroears,Jackson Bend

Turf Sprint: Caracortado

Dirt Mile: Trappe Shot,Tapizar,Shackleford

Turf: Brilliant Speed,Sea Moon,Sarafina

Juv: Alpha,Union Rags,Creative Cause

Mile: Jeranimo,Goldikova,Turallure

Classic: Havre de Grace,Ruler On Ice,Rattlesnake Bridge,Flat Out,So You Think

If anyone is playing the Big A today, Which Market looks good in the 2nd race.

05 Nov 2011 9:39 AM
Pedigree Ann

Hope you folks noticed that all the Juvie Turf fillies on the board were inside the 9 post. Not lookin for the horse who is best intrinsically, but the horse who has a chance with this post draw.

05 Nov 2011 10:59 AM
thomas

Marathon: Birdrun, Giant Oak and Eldaafer

Juv T: Shakespeare Shaliyah, Coalport and State of Play

Sprint: Giant ryan , big drama and hamazing destiny

Turf Sprint: Chamberlain Bridge, Holiday for kitten California flag

Dirt Mile: Jersey town, Wilburn, the factor and calebs posse

Turf: Deans kitten, brilliant speed, Await the dawn and i might bet statley victor to show

Juv: Take Charge Indy, Creative Cause, Union Rags and Speightscity

Mile:Gio Ponti, Turallure and Compliance Officer

Classic: Game on Dude, Drosselmeyer, Headache, to honor and serve?(maybe) 5 dollars on ice box ATB i think he'll run big i just don't know where though lol

Day 2 picks boxing all. Good Luck to Everyone!!!

05 Nov 2011 12:36 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Speaking of that, did "take QR to the bank" beat the mare on dirt? Look's like he got "whipped" finishing last. lmao

05 Nov 2011 2:18 PM
Mike Relva

Like The Factor for the win.

05 Nov 2011 3:53 PM
Stevebiscuit

Well, Amazombie made my Breeders Cup. Thanks to all you suckers who bet the chalk, I appreciate your donation!

05 Nov 2011 4:18 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Say goodnite! lmao

05 Nov 2011 7:12 PM
Stevebiscuit

This was by far my greatest Breeders Cup! $20 to win on Amazombie! I've been blogging all week that Game On Dude and both Belmont winners were sure overlays! Cha-ching! Anyone else have the tri? I told you Draynay, Uncle Mo would finish up the track and that's just what he did. He couldn't even beat Ice Box! This was one of the weakest Classic fields ever and Mo ran like a claimer. Can you say overrated? Thanks for the $$$ everyone!

05 Nov 2011 7:48 PM
thomas

zenyatta or rapid redux will win HOTY LOL

05 Nov 2011 8:07 PM
LAZMANNICK

Another reason why you shouldn't really make you picks until you see how the track is playing.  I'm happy for Drosselmeyer and Mott and Win Star, but this race tells me that N/A racing is in terrible shape and it's going to take a long time to fix it.

Regarding the Turf Mile......last year I bet Court Vision thinking that he had a good chance to upset off his Woodbine Mile win.  He didn't show up.  This year I hammered Turallure because of his rousing finish in the woodbine Mile and who beats me.  Go figure, and at the second longest odds ever for a BC race.  What I found upsetting is that Goldi’s number didn’t come down.  That was shocking and Jerry Bailey said that he has been around the game for a long time and that the number should have come down.  Those who had Gio in tries and who had the fifth place finisher in super boxes got shammed.

With regards to Draynay, go figure there also.

05 Nov 2011 9:06 PM
Ally Sheba

Havre De Grace did great, only 3 horses beat her, she'll be horse of the year. Who else would be? Drosselmeyer didn't win anything else.

05 Nov 2011 9:35 PM
Snow

The overwhelming story line of the Breeders' Cup is whether Mike and Chantal should rekindle their romance?  I think they should-it's good for racing!

05 Nov 2011 9:35 PM
no_mo _mo

Once again I told you so. Unca Schmoe just is not a distance horse. The classic was 21 lengths slower than the 1-2 finishers went last year and unca schmoe was 28 lengths slower than those two. Heck the juvies went 5 or 6 lengths faster for a mile than the supposed super miler unca schmoe. What happened to the 1:35 mile and who's gonna catch him? Good thing I tossed him and went with game on dude and to honor and serve as my keys. Played 10 tris (that's like 250 win and 250 place)counting on one of them to finish 1st or second and tossing completely havre de grace, mo, ice box, headache, rattlesnake ridge, and stay thirsty who were all pretenders. that's how you play your 200+ to win or place and make some money draynay.  

05 Nov 2011 11:01 PM
GunBow

Apologize for referring to Royal Delta as Proud Delta.  Proud Delta was a champion filly, but in 76'

06 Nov 2011 2:29 AM
GunBow

Inconclusive day. Maybe the most inconclusive Breeder's Cup day ever.

Was EXTREMELY happy to see Amazombie and Bill Spawr take the Sprint.  Amazombie and Spawr were on the wrong end of one of the worst dqs in history in the LA Cap earlier this year at Hollywood.  Officially, Amazombie has won 5 stakes and 3 graded stakes races this year, but it should be 6 and 4.  Please, don't hold the LA Cap against Amazombie when thinking about the Eclipse; he won that race!

Caleb's Possse turned in the performance of the weekend, and I expect his Beyer to be huge.  I suppose Caleb's Posse deserves some consideration for champion sprinter, but with only two true sprint wins, I think a better case can be made for him as 3 year old champ.  In a year like this, why not give it to a horse that's won 2 sprint stakes( 1 gr.1), 2 mile stakes(1 gr.1), and the Ohio Derby?

Rgeally Ready would be the hands-down turf sprint champion if there were such a category.  This horse really blossomed this winter at Santa Anita winning 3 races on the downhill course, before winning a stakes Derby weekend.  He went off form a bit but concluded the year with a gr.1 win in Canada and the BC Turf Sprint.  He was much the best in the Turf Sprint.

St. Nick was also much the best in the Turf, and the O'Brien father-son story was certainly heart-warming.  However, the race will have no Eclipse ramifications.

Then, things got weird.  Yes, Hansen was not a total shock and there were many who gave him a big shot in the Juvy.  But given how the rally wide runners were dominating, and how easily Union Rags ran up to Hansen on the far turn, how many saw Hansen fighting back on the inside to win?  I've read comments from some NY based writers claiming Union Rags should still be considered for the Eclipse, but Hansen should and will be the 2 year old champ.  Creative Cause from California was a close 3rd and has classic breeding; he galloped out nicely.

Court Vision? Really?  Court Vision might be one of the most underappreciated horses of the last 5 years, with the Mile score giving him 5 career gr.1 wins.  So, make no mistake, Court Vision has had a wonderful career.  But his form this year had been nothing short of abysmal.  It's hard to believe he actually won the race.  

Goldi ran bravely, but she just isn't the same horse this year.  In fact, her form this year reminded me of Zenyatta's form going into last year's BC.  While Zen continued to win in 2010, she did so only because of the moderate competition she was facing, and even then she no longer was winning effortlessly.  Similarly, Goldi started dropping tough decisions she would have won previous years.  Team Goldi though should take great pride in winning 3 BC races, a record that's going to take some beating.

Drosselmeyer is clearly in the sharpest form of his career, but the fact he won the Classic has to be seen as a reflection of the mediocrity of the race.  The final time of 2:04+ lends credence to my belief that either Blame or Zenyatta would have romped against this field.  

No surprise for me that Uncle Mo was turned back the final quarter or that Havre de Grace was not as brilliant at 10 furlongs.  Actually, given Havre was being hard ridden on the far turn, she did well to salvage 4th.  Hopefully, her out of the money finish makes Zenyatta doubters realize what an accomplishment it was for a female to win a Classic and then run 2nd by a nose.  The two best performances by a female in Classic history remain Zenyatta's two efforts.

Game on Dude ran up to his name, gamely turning back Mo, then To Honor and Serve, then So You Think, then Havre and Flat Out.  On a surface more similar to Santa Anita, he's gone and we're crowning him Horse of the Year.  

The Classic was all about running a Classic distance and doing it over a tiring surface.  The 1-3 finishers were Belmont winners with plenty of stamina.  As for Game on Dude, he was making his 4th start at 10 furlongs this year, and had run bravely in his attempts at the distance on dirt or the dirt-like Cushion Track. Watch the Big Cap, Hollywood Gold Cup, and BC Classic and see just what a tough 10 furlong dirt horse Game on Dude is.

The Eclipse picture is now a mess in many divisions.  Here's my take in the divisions still in dispute:

2 Year old Male: Hansen

3 year old Male: Caleb's Posse or Animal Kingdom

Older Male: Game on Dude or Acclamation

Turf Male: Cape Blanco or Acclamation

Turf Female: Wait until the Matriarch.

My Miss Aurelia, Royal Delta, Havre de Grace, Musical Romance, and Amazombie should have their Eclipses wrapped up.

06 Nov 2011 3:16 AM
Johnny

Yep Uncle Mo wont pull a Quality Road LMAO Zenyatta she is no Uncle Mo

06 Nov 2011 3:32 AM
Criminal Type

I gotta say, Breeders Cup Saturday was a bit anticlimactic for me. I was pretty much dissapointed all day. The only races I managed to do well in were the Juvi where I had the top three but they didnt finish where I would have liked and the Sprint where I also had the top three. Hansen did what I thought he could not do and that is run on dirt. I take nothing away from him, he did a remarkable job. However, I think the outcome would have been very different had not Union Rags had such a wide ride all the way around, he passed Hansen on the very next jump after the wire. You really can't take anything away from Union Rag's, though I would try him in blinkers when he goes next in South Florida to try to correct his bearing out issue. Also, I wouldn't look for Hansen at a mile and a quarter. As for Alpha, Second last (nuff said)

Moving on to Goldikova, Obviously her jockey is an idiot. Thinking he could force the issue, He cuts off Courageous Cat causing him to finish LAST and then says it was CC's fault because CC bumped Goldy at the break. (eyeroll) The stewards let her off easy.

As for the Classic, I don't think Trevor Denman even mentioned Uncle Mo or Stay Thirsty after the quarter pole. They both faded into obvilion. I really thought Stay Thirsty at least would do better. I guess he really does not care for Churchill Downs racing surface because he was a powerhouse at Saratoga. Havre De Grace did well to get up for 4th.

The best part of the whole day was when 18 year old Joseph O'Brien won on St Nicholas Abby. What a ride that cool young man gave that horse. Perfectly positioned the whole way, He deserved the win.

Congrats to all who picked the winners. I suppose Dray will be hiding under his rock for the next few days ignoring the fact that his precious Uncle Mo was still finishing the Classic while Drosselmeyer was already back in his stall. Still think Mo can beat Frankel at a mile Dray...LOL.

06 Nov 2011 4:15 AM
Criminal Type

Word on AU Miner is he fractured both Sesamoid's in his left front fetlock. He was taken back to the barn where Xrays confirming the injury were taken. The horse was not unloaded from the ambulance but transported directly to Rood & Riddle in Lexington where Dr Bramledge will perform surgery Monday or Tuesday. Obviously the horse career is over. The prognosis is 50-60% that the horse will recover. Best wishes to AU Miner and his connections.

06 Nov 2011 6:22 AM
Kevin

Everyone is an expert before the races. I had no solid opinions either of the two days and didn't cash a ticket.  Breeders Cup makes for some exciting racing, but near impossible to handicap.  

06 Nov 2011 9:11 AM
LAZMANNICK

According to the Track-O-Meter, Union Rags traveled 78 feet or 9 lengths further than Hansen.  I like Hansen, but switch the trips and who is the better horse?  A number of weak resumes for our best two year olds, especially from a Beyer perspective, but I would still vote Union Rags top 2 year-old.

I agree with GunBow that Caleb's Posse should be the top three year old.  Without looking it up believe he is the only three year old male with more than one G1 win.  He was such an emphatic winner.  I wonder how he would run of Turf.

Maybe Dale Romans deserves some credit for Court Vision.  He beat my Turallure fair and square in a head bob for the ages.

Royal Delta’s 104 Beyer in the Distaff didn’t do much for Beyer credibility in my mind.  Six points better than the next best dirt Beyer and this after the track had been drying out.  IMO the Distaff field was one of the weakest ever, nothing like the top fields in the 80’s and 90’s and for most of the editions this decade……173 lifetime starts and 8 total G1 wins in N/A.  What’s happening here?  It would have been a top race with Royal Delta, HDG, Blind Luck and Awesome Maria.  So much for wear and tear and bad decisions about where to run a filly.

With regards to Mo I think we should give him a break.  Draynay's usual exaggerations in touting him as a super horse have turned a lot of people against Mo.  Draynay, do us all a favor and act responsibly.  Hopefully we’ll see Mo next year.  At this point, for stallion credibility, they might have to run him to build up his resume.  I still think he’s the real deal if given a full year at the races to properly build his stamina, if not for the BCC, then at least for the mile.

Game On Dude is probably the best horse in America.  I have never been particularly high on Chantal Sutherland as a jockey and I’ve followed her long before she ever went to the States.  Her comments to the outrider coming back about Mike Smith made me wonder who does she think she is?  She’s an 11% winning jockey that in her entire career will never accomplish what Smith did in his first year of riding.  Game On Dude would be hands down HOY with a jockey that knew how to rate a speed horse.  She obviously doesn’t and ran him as hard as she could for as long as he would take her.  That’s not quality riding on her part.  She did this same thing in the Goodwood when she got the mile in 1.34.1 and hung on by half a length to Awesome Gem.  In that race the horse bailed her out.  Yesterday she repelled several challenges from several different horses and amazingly, GOD, in spite of this, still managed to look like a winner at the 8th pole.  Too bad.

Sylvester……if you’re reading this, maybe now you will gain a better appreciation of how good Zenyatta really was.  HDG had no excuses against a mediocre filed, maybe the weakest overall BCC ever.  Think, no look back at what Zenyatta did in her two BCC races and how difficult it is for any filly or mare to compete against G1 horses at 10F.

06 Nov 2011 11:06 AM
tcc

Draynay and others who played Uncle Mo in the BCC to win, were given this tip ahead of time.

I guess you folks didn't read my post on the earlier column. NO US-RACED HORSE HAS WON THE CLASSIC WITHOUT AT LEAST ONE WIN AT 9F. And the vast majority had run in races of 10f or more at least once. Uncle Mo is not going to change that. Bad luck to those of you who have drunk the Kool-Aid.

Pedigree Ann 04 Nov 2011 9:17 AM.

06 Nov 2011 12:21 PM
Footlick

Laz- don't even try to validate her to these people.  Of course you didn't hear Larry Jones make another tongue-in-cheek reference to her, did you?  He found out it is not so easy after all.  The Zenyatta detractors will never own up to her efforts in the two BC Classics.  But when they start making excuses for Mo and "Gracie" we can say, "They lost.  Get over it." lol

06 Nov 2011 1:04 PM
Kevin

Lets lay the cards on the table to put everything in perspective.  I had a $450 bankroll for the two days and went home with $200.  Only cashed tickets on the Juvenile filly (had the tri 3 times) and Regally Ready WPS.  For everyone who was so confidant before the races, how did you do?  

06 Nov 2011 2:47 PM
Linda in Texas

Lazmannick - agree with all of your post. Game on Dude to me is a great competitor and he is aptly named. It was 'almost' wire to wire for him. A shame he missed the honors.

But Drosselmeyer was not going to be denied and ran a great race. His is an old name that is new again and with it now a BC Classic Win.

I hope that we all are given the respect that our differences of opinions deserve. Loyalty is a virtue and one to be respected by all.

Some of us like some horses for our own reasons, and others don't

for their own reasons. To each his own.

The problem i have always felt some have is dissing the hell out of a good horse because they cannot accept hard work and great racing from a very deserving winner. Regardless of what side of the country they are based on and what type of surface they run on,it is not an easy feat to race or win time after time and stay sound all at the same time.

With that said i have always pulled for Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty and was disappointed yesterday and i will forever remember their owner Mike Repole for his total devotion and enthusiasm for horse racing and look forward to his contributions in the future.

Let me simply say,I respect every single horse and jockey that steps onto a racetrack and all the connections that it takes to have that happen. The gate loaders, the outriders and their ponies, the groomers, the hot walkers,and all who work backside and on and on. Thanks so much. Each and every one of you are an important cog in the wheel of a successful race time after time.

06 Nov 2011 5:42 PM
Mike Relva

ALLY SHEBA

Yeah and only ONE horse beat Zenyatta.

06 Nov 2011 7:37 PM
Mike Relva

SYLVESTER

Say goodnite Gracie! lmao

06 Nov 2011 7:38 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

I know, I know you actually didn't state Mo would win by five, right?

06 Nov 2011 7:43 PM
furlongs

I cashed 2 tickets Saturday but it was enough to make a small profit for this years BC. I did not attend Friday and didnt even look at the PP's. But I was all over the Exacta in the Sprint had a $10 Box and had a $10 Exacta Box on the Juv Race. Went home with a modest $370 winner but felt good considering the race results!! BTW those $10 each Down the Stretch Drinks they were selling are WAY better then any Mint Julip I ever had!! lol

06 Nov 2011 8:42 PM
furlongs

DRAYNAY-

Waiting on that $2000 losing Win ticket on MO in the Classic... also since your so good how much you come home with?? Thats what I thought! Your nothing more then a typical run your mouth track clown!

06 Nov 2011 8:43 PM
rorschach1992

Reading Draynay's posts, ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Who would whip who again in a Frankel vs. Uncle Mo match-up????? LMFAO!!!

Uncle Mo will win by 5???

LOLOLOLOLOL!!!!

Yeah you picked two winners on BC Friday! Way to go!! You only picked two winners that a blind bat could have come up with as singles. And another post-time favorite on Saturday, Bravo!!!

And Zenyatta got "whipped" you say??

Again ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!

Uncle Mo this year and Quality Road last year, we all know you were his biggest fan, are examples of whippings.

Oh man, Draynay: Don't stop posting, I haven't laughed so hard in a while!

07 Nov 2011 1:24 AM
Householder

Draynay.  G.O.D. has spoken.

07 Nov 2011 12:20 PM
spectacular bid

has mo finished yet?

mo vs frankel..really?

how bout mo vs quality road at 1 1/4 mile n see if either gets home in under 2;10..another pletcher fraud

07 Nov 2011 7:43 PM
Forbidden Apple

HOY should go to Tizway, his Met Mile/Whitney performances were far better than anything else this year. If entered in the 2011 BC Classic field, he would have smashed this group to pieces.

Union Rags was much the best on staurday, he should run again this year to grab the eclipse award that he deserves.

Hype of the Year award should go to Uncle Mo. First we all had to listen to how he was better than Secretariat, then how he would be the next Triple Crown winner, and finally how he would be horse of the year in 2011. Uncle Mo beat a bunch of inexperienced 2 year olds in 2010, big deal. In 2011 his best performance was winning a grade II race against Jackson Bend, big deal again. It's simple, the best horse he ever beat was Jackson Bend. Why would anyone get excited about that fact or want to breed to this hyped up horse?

09 Nov 2011 8:04 AM

Recent Posts

Videos

Resources

More Blogs

Archives