Starting from the first Derby Dozen, I had Old Fashioned ranked No. 1 for five consecutive weeks, despite many people insisting he hadn't beaten anyone and would not stay the mile and a quarter. Prior to the Rebel, my comment on Derby Dozen concluded with, Don't expect any fireworks until the Arkansas Derby.

As often happens on the Kentucky Derby trail, they fell like proverbial bowling pins last weekend, although two of the bigger names reinforced their strong position. Not all the vanquished will be taken off the trail, as some deserve another chance after racing on less than desirable surfaces, but they have put themselves in a desperate situation.