Here's My say:

Giacomo....What else has he done?? Where is he?? In retirement? Stud? Who knows?

Funny Cide...I'm sorry, the Jose Santos controversy still lives to this day...regardless of whether he was cleared of "zapping Funny Cide" to win that Derby.

Hands down, the talent out there in recent years has been Buddy Gill (not a derby contender) and Barbaro, for his versatility on turf and dirt tracks and his ability to know what was expected of him.  Tabasco Cat was of similar quality as well as Point Given. The rest were just lucky to have been where their jockeys led them.

Elaine, what are you talking about? The buzzing controversy has been over for years - it was just a photo taken at an unfortunate angle.

And Giacomo won the San Diego Handicap the year after he won the Kentucky Derby. He wasn't the best of winners but he certainly wasn't the worst.

My Derby hopes rest on a filly and a horse in the Sham. I was won over by his outstanding maiden race and hopefully he'll duplicate that in the Sham.

Elaine - Giacomo is at stud at Adena Springs. His first foals are yearlings this year. His half-brother Tiago continues racing for the family honor.

Elaine what does "Where is Giacomo now?" have to do with this article?

(And he is at stud, Adena Springs)

This article certainly isn't even trying to claim that he was better than Afleet Alex, just that he had a prep that set him up better for success in the Derby.  Which is absolutely true.

And Funny Cide more than proved that he was a capable runner, Santos aside, by going on to win both the Preakness and the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

How can you leave off Monarchos and "the move" in the 2001 Florida Derby?  I saw that and said to any who would listen (not many, in my circles!):  there's the Derby winner.  I didn't care what Point Given did or didn't do; I didn't care that Monarchos ran behind Congaree in the Wood--that acceleration and ability to sustain it is what wins derbies, and it was evident in the Florida Derby for all who didn't have stars in their eyes.

My feelings about Derby winners are simple, "would the horse win the Derby again if the same field raced again?" Giacomo was one of the luckiest Derby winners in recent memories, but there is no way he would win that race again. Afleet Alex was far & away the best 3YO of that year & a truly great "2/3 Crown winner". Sea Hero falls in that same vein. Nothing can take away their win, but history will not judge them as great horses, just lucky horses.

Handicapping the Derby is one of the toughest things to do, and I envy people who are better than me (4 winners in 20 years).

Funny Cide was a very good horse and I personally don't think he got zapped. Giacomo was in the right place at the right time, its a horse race, best doesn't always win

Any horse that wins the Kentucky Derby deserves to wear the roses.  It is a phenomenal accomplishment no matter what amount of luck is part of the package.  It is the unpredictability that makes trying to handicap the Derby so much fun.  This article about the prep races and who had the most left for the Derby brings up some really interesting points.  But I still don't see anything that helps me pick the winner without that hindsight.  Secretariat lost the Wood just before running the three most powerful Triple Crown races ever run.  Who knew at the time that there was any horse who could work that hard both training and on race day?  You really can't apply what one horse does to what another might do.  There are so many wonderful horses at this point - I can't even begin to pick.  And at this point in time racing needs all these exceptional hopefuls.

Nice post TerriV.  In defense of Giacomo's Kentucky Derby victory:  in my opinion it was an all-out effort and I can't slight him a bit-- in fact, it is one of my favorite KDs.  Yes the race set up perfectly for him, but he took advantage of it.  Remember the glazed look in his eye in the winner's circle and the reports that he spent the whole next day laying down in his stall, couldn't get up he was so exhausted.  Have some heart guys, don't bash him.  This derby will be very interesting with all the Unbridled's Song progeny...

There always has been and always will be horses that win a race that people think they should not.

Sea Hero was not the best horse in the Derby, nor was he my pick. But when he crossed the wire first I was cheering my lungs out for Mr. Mellon and Mr. Mack (Miller).

And No I. Did not have Giacomo either, and although he was not the best of his crop he was a nice race horse.

The Best horse does not always win, they could be having an off day, do horses have headaches? or a lesser horse running the race or their lives. There is Traffic troubles, and now days horses that are simply not bred to go the distance. Then perhaps there are the racing Gods or the Fates who say "hay they have paid their dues and we own them one."

At any rate it would not be any fun to have the favorite win every year would it?

And it is to fun to talk and read about it, then see the results on the first Saturday in May.

TO ELAINE:

If you think Funny Cide wasn't "for real" after thr type of career,then you're fooling yourself,period!

Since 1995, the three Derbys I have had right were Grindstone, Thunder Gulch and Street Sense. In Thunder Gulch's case, I liked his heart in Florida preps, tough head bob finishes that he didn't win - if I remember correctly. Street Sense had the right trainer and right set up. The rail also opened benevolently.

In my case, I use prep races to toss non-contenders and limit the list to 3-5 viable Derby options (in 2007 I correctly dismissed Dominican due to his artificial surface wins).  Most cases I don't get it right on the nose, but I am usually close.

Something I would like further comment on is how synthetic surfaces are changing how we look at preps - do I toss all contenders from Southern California?

At this point in the game I have to stick with Pioneer of the Nile, his last two wins and his breeding are what is keeping me watching him.

Yes TerriV excellent post. I am very excited about the KD this year. So many really good horses.I will be on pins and needles for the next 10 weeks and beyond. Who will make it in, who will get sidelined... a lot can happen until that first Sat in May and usually does. Any horse who wins the Derby is forever special. And at that moment when they cross the finish line they are the best.

I had the funny cide exacta for $1, @$5k, and he was a bum.

Controversy still exists Elaine?

Pulease.

There seem to be a tendency to focus on the winners of derby preps at the expense of the also ran. I will use Giacamo as an example. He had only a maiden win to his credit going into the derby. However, he finished in the top three in a number of preps. Giacomo did not have the high cruising speed of the top colts in CA so he had to be nudged along to keep pace while they were cruising along on their bridles. What inexperienced evaluators missed with Giacomo was the fact that although he had to be ridden to keep pace with the larders, he still was able to closed in the last two furlongs. The average horse that is used too early usually has nothing left for the stretch. This was not the case with Giacomo. Experience evaluators will concede that the fast CA tracks were not suitable to a horse with Giacomo running style.

A horse like Giacomo needed a couple of favorable factors for victory:

(a) Distance in excess of 9 furlongs

(b) Quick early fractions resulting in pace meltdown

(c) Fair track with wide turns

(d) Patient Jockey

(e) A chance to use his greatest asset ‘Stamina’

All of the above factors were in play for Giacomo. The derby is 10 furlongs; the first 6 furlongs were completed in '1:09.59 the fastest in history; those that followed that pace paid the price in the last furlong; the wide Churchill’s Downs turns allowed a patient Mike Smith room to maneuver through traffic. Giacomo was the only grinder in the race.

I wagered Giacomo in the derby because he kept closing on the fast CA tracks after being ridden from the gates in all his races. I knew the distance of the derby was what he needed and I suspected that Songandaprayer was to exhibit his speed and that would be the death of the leaders & chaser.

In the recently concluded Southwest Stakes, Flat Out was left at the gates. If he isolated and timed from the point he came back to earth and took his first stride, the result would reflect that he ran about 1:36 and change for the mile. That is the only way he could have finished so close with such fart early fractions and the real estate advantage he gave up. Old Fashioned cannot beat Flat Out under normal circumstances. His performance was the highlight of the Southwest Stakes.

The horse that wins on that first Saturday in May is the "Best Horse That Day"... whether you had to outrun the 20 horse field from post 20 to the first turn and then romp home, or got a rail skimming ride inside the rail, squeezing through 18 horses and blowing by the leader or the biggest long shot ever coming wide from behind and running down the entire field at the wire...you run the same race at the same age on the same track under the same weight with a really good jockey, you are a deserving Kentucky Derby Winner forever.

PS Going back only to 1988 I have picked 14 KD winners, including long shots 30-1 Charismatic who I was high on early, War Emblem 20-1, way before the Prince bought him, Thunder Gulch, Undridled, Monarchos all who I liked early in their careers...I did not pick Giacomo, though (darn)!!!

I hit three in a row (Smarty Jones, Giacomo, Barbaro) Just missed on Curlin, Afleet Alex, and Eight Belles most of my other early picks have not even made the race...

Smarty Jones, Barbaro, Afleet Alex, and Eight Belles were kind of Cheating because of their ties to Philadelphia and Delaware Parks where I spent so much time growing up.  Giacomo was a flyer pick whom I knew little about.  

People from the Philadelphia Area don't know how good we have had it over the last 5 years...with some of these fantastic Champions...

Yes, I too love those Philly area horses, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex and even Rockport Harbor of the same year although he couldn't come back from his foot injury even though he was nominated for the Derby, Barbaro, Hard Spun, Round Pond and Eight Belles to name a few.  We'll never forget the excitement of Smarty's run for the Triple Crown.

k man..i too am from philly area and yes we are truly blessed with having great horses with ties to us..how about it?? looks to be another great racing season for us..

What ever happened to Elysium Fields?

Z - Great timing on this question. Elysium Fields, now in the barn of Neil Drysdale, won an allowance race at Santa Anita on February 19, and looked pretty good doing it. It was a mile and a sixteenth race.

wow... I have been wondering about that horse Elysium Fields.  Honestly, I could not remember his name! it was dogging me.  I only remember his meltdown in the Florida D 08 after every handicapper gave him out to win.  Isn't that something!  Stay tuned folks, all your questions will be answered on the internet.  So happy he is back, and hopefully mature and ready to rock.

The preps say alot about maturity, preparation and heart. I picked Smarty, Barbaro, Street Sense and Big Brown for the unquestionable talent and overwhelming heart to win they displayed. Barbaro's Florida Derby separated the men from the boys and I believe, that had he stayed sound, he would have been a triple crown horse. Street Sense displayed sheer guts everytime he ran and I think the jockey lost the Preakness for him.

As for who is running this year, the foreign horses might have some trouble adjusting here and I have not seen any clear talent, yet from our horses. I'll watch the Florida Derby, Blue Grass, Tampa Derby, santa anita, etc.

O.K...in defense of myself, I remember talking to an excellent local handicapper here in my town who attended Giacomo's Derby win.

He told a group of us how bizarre the win was because there was just a huge silence when that horse (20 horse field not withstanding) was announced as winner and everyone present said,"Giacomo?? Who's he?" I'm just relating that info.

Interesting that hardly anyone chimed in on Barbaro's bandwagon.

Hands down the most amazing physical athlete (equine) was John Henry with his tremendous stride length.  O.K.,  I have to admit, watching Barbaro's amazing length win gave me a flashback to Secretariat's win.  But Eight Belle's breakdown harkened back to the days of Ruffian. The press on Eight Belles prior to the race was similar to Ruffian's. Phenomenal fillies lost too soon but both were set apart from their peers in that both Ruffian and Eight Belles took training seriously and were out there to win. Amazing.

What a match race there must be daily in horse heaven.

Any jockey out there who has the Derby resulting in a buzzer controversy gives thoroughbred racing yet another black eye so I'm always disappointed there.

Elaine - don't blame Jose Santos for the buzzer controversy, he wasn't carrying one. Blame the reporter who tried to make a story when there wasn't one. See for example: www.bloodhorse.com/.../churchill-stewards-santos-carried-only-whip-in-derby-victory

I think the Miami Herald and the reporter who made up that false report paid handsomely for that mistake, as well they should have.

As to what my point was in this blog.  Just don't forget the also rans.

The Derby is certainly no easy race to pick. I have done better picking the races over the last few years than when I first started back in 2000. 2005 was a throwout year.  A lot of crazy things happened in the race and just have to scratch your head on that one. I have picked the 1-2 finishers the last two years.  Looking at the Rags numbers has certainly helped.  Last year, Big Brown and Eight Belles had the best numbers and were the fastest horses, point blank, looking back.  

Hard Spun was a very unlucky 2nd in 2007.  How lucky was Street Sense to get a dream trip on the rail?  He is probably the most underrated horse ever in my opinion.  That horse  ran fast fractions and never quit.  His 2nd in the BC Classic was overshadowed by Curlin.  Look how fast the fractions were and he still beat everyone but him.  Its ashame he didn't run at 4 and show his true ability. He was as good as Curlin and would have been nice to see those two run against each other multiple times.  He and Curlin would have crushed Big Brown had they met in the same year.

Coming from the Philly area as well, we have been blessed with some great horses over the last 5 years.

Excellent article with video clips and even better commentary. Seeing some of the ol'jocks was a walk down memory lane compared to today.

How can you not mention Bellamy Road's prep in the 2005 Wood???

yep I remember "Bellamy Road's Wood Memorial run! And "Racecar Rhapsody" last year! Just goes to show one prep doesn't mean Heaven's Derby is yours for the taking. And I remember "Nolan's Cat" a non-maiden surrendering

1 furlong plus and finishing 3rd!! with the most amazing close, kind of like "Curlin"'s Derby Run! 4th was he???

Mayor Marv is not considered a member of Bob Baffert’s first string. His recent victory in the Turf Paradise Derby is not considered significant as no winner of this derby has ever been a factor in the Triple Crown races. The 2005 winner General John B did occupy the runner slot in the Santa Anita derby of the same year. I have reviewed the pedigree profile of Mayor Marv and the facts indicate that he is big derby sleeper.

His sire Distorted Humor of Funny Cide fame needs no introduction. He is one of the five grandsons of Mr. Prospector that has sired a derby winner. Mayor Marv’s dam Miss Wineshine was sired by Wolf Power a grandson the great Round Table. It is not very often that Wolf Power (1978) appears as a broodmare sire. My research has uncovered two horses of significance whose dams were sires by Wolf Power. They are Steppenwolfer

the third place finisher in the 2006 Barbaro derby and multi-millionaire and multipleG1 winner Milwaukee Brew.  Mayor Marv’s second and third dams reflect significantly more classic pedigree than those of Steppenwolfer  and Milwaukee Brew. His second dam was sired by Sunrise Flight who was broodmare sire of 1981 derby winner Pleasant Colony. His third dam was sired Prince John whose sons’ Stage Door Johnny and Speak John were broodmare sired of 1994 & 1985 derby winners Go For Gin and Spend A Buck.

Mayor Marv recorded an easy 1:36.90 for the mile in the Turf Paradise Derby. He found a lot extra in the final sixteen and appeared to get stronger as he galloped out. His 1:36 clocking is right in line with the average of the last 10 derby miles. This horse has enough pace to be forwardly place and there is enough stamina in his pedigree to carry his speed over 10 furlongs. These are the type of horses that fly under the radar and accumulate just enough graded earnings to shock punter on derby day.

After Eight Belles broke down there was all the usual commentary about how a filly shouldn't run with the boys.  Coming up this year we have a filly who could run with the boys (and maybe even beat them!)  This is a subject that causes a lot of personal conflict for me.  I loved Eight Belles and believe that many of the fillies are equally as strong as the colts but racing doesn't need another disaster.  I would love to hear some opinions (foresight rather than hindsight) about Stardom Bound and whether she should run in the derby.  

My brother had a Derby system....he reasoned that most Derby winners had raced well at 1 mi or longer as a 2yo in Gr 1 competition--not necessarily winning but at least in the hunt v the big boys---The 1992 Champaigne had me locked in to Sea Hero as a horse of value to me---living in Oregon at the time, where betting was limited to in-state pools, Eastern based horses got less respect--he was 12-1 at Churchill but I got 31-1 in Salem Oregon---sure he was inconsistent but I just figured his Champagne was legit cuz it was so strong---I was right, and I owed that one to my bro--I've made a bit of $ on The Derby over the years---this year Pioneerof The Nile looks great--still, it's a huge question if he can dirt first time---This is some good looking horse......

What NOBODY seems to ever bring up

about Giacomo is that another horse

in that Derby (Welco ??) was bet down to 10 or 12 to 1 for that race.

Giacomo had worked 7 furlongs at the SAME track on the SAME day by a full 3 seconds faster than the other horse. That's worth noting.

I can't help that Ken Rudolph touted it...Not bacause of the work!

I left one other one out. If you can find the replay of the Pleasant

Colony Derby, watch on the far outside right at the end. Woodchopper is FLYING and would have won the race if he had just a little more luck. I think he worked a mile in a great time before the race. Cost me some high

odds,plus I had to listen to Johnny Campo's big mouth about

His horse winning. Woodchopper was

a bleeder and didnt do much after

that cause of some medication restrictions...

OK I hit the last three Derby exacta's. I think this one will be either Chocolate Candy OR Stardom Bound.  I may be nuts but  everyone told me I was nuts last  year too.  IF Stardom Bound is in the Derby, something tells me she is going to win it from any post.  :)  We shall see.  I like OF and FF but something there is bugging me. I don't know what it is.  I hope for a safe trip for all of them.  

Not sure what happened on my other

post. The "Gary E" that was not about Woodchopper isn't mine???

My other post (summed up) is that

Giacomo had worked 7 furlongs at the SAME track on the SAME day as

had Wilko (I think). Wilko went off at around 12 to 1. Giacomo went a full 3 seconds faster in his prep work !!!

Thank you for the Video clips.  I still think Funny Cide's JGCup one of the best races I got to see(on TV).  To see 2 horses pass him on either side and then he came charging through between them to win showed tremendous heart and stamina

I liked the points in this article, though I still have a hard time seeing the perfect "set ups" you mention. I do agree that a rested horse, one that is not pushed to its limits, will be fresher and perhaps more sharp for the big dance.

I think you did succeed in relieving some of the pressure in my head for these final prep races before the Derby. Sometimes we forget the lead-up isn't all about winning, though it certainly helps the horses make it into those Derby gates.

TerriV- It shouldn't matter what sex the horse is going into the Derby. What happened to Eight Belles was a freak accident, born of her cross-breeding to Unbridled's Song; it had nothing to do with her gender.

I would love to see Stardom Bound in the Derby. But I do think it would be in her best interest to have one race with the boys before so. The past 2 female winners did so before they won the Derby.

Thank you for those replays.  I usually only get to see them at the Derby Museum.  I've been to 40 derbys.

My favorite horse was Foolish Pleasure who I bet in the 75' Derby.  My biggest wins were Ferdinand and Sea Hero; not only did I like the way they came up to their races, but you had to believe the Good Lord was going to make MacMiller and Charlie Whittingham finally win a derby for all the good they had done for racing.  Right now, Friesan Fire has impressed me the most; and after losing Eight Belles last year, you know Larry jones is going to win the Derby.

One of the ultimate set-up races had to be the Santa Anita Derby of 1998. If you can find the video of that race you can see Desourmeax realizing that although he could make the finish close, he will probably not catch Indian Charlie. So he lets Real Quiet relax and coasts to a second place finish. We all know what happened after that.