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R-E-S-P-E-C-T

Courtesy of Becky Johnston 

What does a horse have to do to get a little respect these days? 

Pioneerof The Nile has a record of eight starts with five wins, including two Grade 1 and two Grade 2 victories.  He has beaten everyone's Derby Darling, I want Revenge, in two of those races and Papa Clem was also a victim of his devastating late turn of foot in the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, coming off a 49-day rest.

2009 Robert B. Lewis Stakes

I Want Revenge and Papa Clem had every chance to beat Pioneerof the Nile there.  Yes, I know, "he's a synthetic specialist", not a dirt horse.  Well, I would counter that this is an experienced colt.  He has figured this game out and he will figure out the dirt too. 

The I Want Revenge camp believe they have a horse that excels on dirt, but I would say that their colt probably benefited more because Pioneerof The Nile was not in the starting gate with him in his last two dirt starts.

The only knock I could come up with for Pioneerof the Nile was his immature efforts in two Grade 1 ra ces as a two-year-old.  The Breeders' Futurity behind Square Eddie where he lollygagged near the back of the pack, came extremely wide and with Kent Desourmeaux aboard, appeared to know he had no chance and shut down to finish third. 

Next was the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.  He had some minor traffic issues before he got to the stretch, but when he did get in the stretch, he was sandwiched between two horses that bounced him around.  He fought back to defeat both of those foes and after that fifth place finish, the colt just grew up.

2008 Breeders' Cup Juvenile

This was Pioneerof the Nile's next race, two months later.  By this time, he had turned into a real fighter.

2008 Cash Call Futurity 

The Nile's jockey in the last four contests, Garrett Gomez, all winning efforts, can't decide if he wants to ride him or a horse that has three starts, Dunkirk.  Two of his races were against average competition.  When faced with the task of defeating Grade 2 winner Quality Road in the Florida Derby, he wasn't up to the challenge.  I know that trainer Todd Pletcher blamed the track condition, but he made a run and got past Quality Road, but there was nothing there.  You be the judge.

2009 Florida Derby

Gulfstream's track bias aside, their speed favoring track works itself out with class and distance, in my opinion. Dunkirk was able to close and get in front, but Quality Road just reeled him back in. Sure it was a great move, but in the end, it was what it was, second place.

Now if Mr. Zayat were to ask my advice, which he isn't going to do.  I would say get a jockey that wants to ride your horse and your horse only.  There must be a long line of them that want to ride a horse that will be one of the favorites.  A colt that hasn't put a hoof wrong all year.  Tyler Baze is sitting right there and he has been riding "lights-out", sweeping the Santa Anita stakes last weekend.  The goal would be to find a jockey with softer hands, that may not find it necessary to fight with the horse to impress his will upon him.  Their last race showcased the relationship between Gomez and the colt.  It reminded me of two men going after the same woman in a bar, which can only lead to one thing, a fight.

2009 Santa Anita Derby

Pioneerof the Nile has won two Grade 1 races, one as a two-year old and one as a three-year old.  He is the only horse that appears in the top 20 earners that has accomplished the feat. 

Bob Baffert's colt worked in 46 and change at Santa Anita this week and Gary Stevens indicated on HRTV that's too fast.  The IEAH consultant noted that I Want Revenge's :50 for the same distance at Churchill Downs was just right.  What if the times were reversed?  Would the opinion be different.

Well, we're going to see.  It will all be settled at some point in the next two months which one is the better of the two and it might be settled in two weeks.

Pioneerof The Nile has the breeding to get the job done.  His dam can tell him a little about winning on Derby week.  She won the 1997 La Troienne in the same week.  His sire, Empire Maker, didn't fair too badly in the 2003 Run for the Roses, when he finished second to Funny Cide and then spoiled the gelding's effort to win the Triple Crown with a win in the Belmont Stakes.

Respect is certainly due for this colt.

One More.....

A lot of experts seem to be dismissing General Quarters' win in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland, but let's take a step back and look at his career thus far.

Keep in mind, this colt just won at a mile and an eighth.  Now let's take a look at him in action as a two-year-old going four and a half furlongs at Churchill in May of 2008. 

Maiden Race May 30, 2008

I don't know what led the Ramseys and trainer Wesley Ward to enter the horse for a $20,000 claiming tag, but I'm sure they had one.  Thomas McCarthy was the lucky winner of a three-way shake for the gray colt by Sky Mesa out of the Unbridled's Song mare Ecology. 

In General Quarters' next start, a Grade 3 Stake, he was very prominent when it appears he runs into a problem mid-stretch and begins to fade.

2008 Bashford Manor

It was another three months before the colt was heard from again.  He came back with a couple of promising allowance efforts at Keeneland, a fourth and second placing followed by a disappointing turf try at Churchill.  He found his way back to the dirt and finished third behind Clarence Scharbauer's promising colt Silver City. 

Allowance sprint

The colt shipped to Tampa and ran two fast closing seconds from far back in six and seven furlong sprints.  Three things happened for his next race, the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes .  The front wraps came off, the blinkers he wore in every race were removed and the colt would go two turns for the first time.

2009 Sam F. Davis Stakes

What that race told me is this is a colt that has matured tremendously and a horse that wants a distance of ground.

General Quarters appeared next in the Tampa Bay Derby and if the owner had any nightmares about the trip he would have in the race, they all came true.  Watch General Quarters, the #8.  More importantly watch the interest the colt shows in finishing the race

2009 Tampa Bay Derby

Many called that a bad performance.  I call it a lesson in survival. 

In the Blue Grass, he further showed his hard-earned maturity in his eleventh start.  The kind of maturity that Pioneerof the Nile has found in his eight races.  The two colts are placed in contention (although wide) and he will find himself in the exact position the winner of the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner will need to find themselves in two weeks. 

2009 Bluegrass Stakes

The colt leveled off nicely in this race and I see no reason that this dirt and synthetic track winner can't be competitive on the first Saturday in May.

What do you think about these two?

72 Comments:

I think I could bet both of them in the derby especially General Quarters, I like that horse

marleneburry 17 Apr 2009 1:28 PM

I think these two horses blow and wont even hit the board. All the articles i have read this is the worst. General quarters are u kidding me that horse is garbage! Everyone do yourself a favor and watch desert party come roaring home.... chasing QR and dunkirk. The rest of these horsesare just bums!

anti draynay and thong song! 17 Apr 2009 1:39 PM

I think you make some great points about both these horses. I think the derby is anyone's guess. We have some talented horses showing up for that first Saturday in May and anything can happen. To look past either one of these horses would be foolish.

Karen2 17 Apr 2009 1:45 PM

Anti Dray... you are far more annoying than Draynay. You might get LUCKY and happen to pick the favorites to win..(imagine that)

Karen2 17 Apr 2009 1:47 PM

I like your arguments here. Pioneer is most def one to watch if he takes to the dirt which he should. Same thing with GQ, he'll be a nice overlay in 2 weeks. That all being said, QR just put in a nice work at Belmont, looks like the foot problems are a thing of the past. This Derby is going to be the toughest in years.

Frank J. 17 Apr 2009 1:55 PM

I think I Want Revenge is going to be putting in a huge run in the Derby. Pioneer will run well to but I not sure he will be as good on dirt. Revenge almost had him in the CashCall and didn't take to the track in Robert Lewis. My money is on Revenge.

For Revenge 17 Apr 2009 1:58 PM

I think Miss Becky has given us some intriguing insights.  I like a handicapper that "digs" a little bit.  However, look for Chocolate Candy to make another "mouth-watering move." And Anti Dranay...why don't you just go get yourself a couple of Scratcher tickets.

crumbles 17 Apr 2009 2:22 PM

Crumbles, I have a future bet on your "sweet" pick and an exacta with him and Potn.  

Becky Johnston 17 Apr 2009 2:32 PM

Good Points Becky...

       I like General Quarters, Will be on my Tri, Behind the Winner, "Friesan Fire", then either General Quarters, Chocolate Candy....

The dirt will hurt POTN, In my opinion, and I also have a gut feeling that the Quarter Crack will come back to haunt QR...

It should be a great race, and it really is anyone's guess...

Greg J. 17 Apr 2009 3:10 PM

Karen 2 How am I taking a favorite I think desert party will be about 15-1 at the morning line how is that a favorite?? Crumbles again desert party is a favorite thats news to me!!

anti draynay and thong song! 17 Apr 2009 3:21 PM

I agree about putting someone who wants to ride Pioneer with softer hands, Garret fights too much with him. I hate that he hasn't chosen yet. Hmm Pioneerof the nile two grade 1 wins four race win streak and dunkirk grade 1 stakes placed. It should be obvious. I give Pioneer the best chance to win unless his works at churchill say otherwise. Baffert has him primed and he knows ALL about the derby....

Ekrueg 17 Apr 2009 3:50 PM

If Pioneer had run and won his races on dirt I would be more prone to giving him more consideration. Respect he does deserve but until he gets to Churhill and we hear how he is taking to the track I will still have reservations about him. As for his owner he he should either get a commitment from Gomez or find another jockey. Both Pioneer and General Quarters I believe are very good horses but as far as the Derby winner goes I will stay with my pick Friesan Fire who I locked onto last fall. This is certainly going to be one heck of a Derby this year.

DONNA 17 Apr 2009 3:53 PM

I think that Gomez is going to wait and see how  POTN takes to the dirt before he makes his choice between the two and truthfully I would do the same thing but I must say Freisan Fire is still my man unless he proves me wrong between now and then even with a 7 week layoff.

lobieb 17 Apr 2009 4:00 PM

Greg J.  Go Friesan Fire.  Great horse, with a great pedigree.

Mary 17 Apr 2009 4:33 PM

Donna,

     Once again, Spot on with "Friesan Fire", Looking forward to his mile work on Sunday.  Like you, I have been with this guy since I first saw him...Poetry in Motion....

Greg J. 17 Apr 2009 4:51 PM

I love General Quarters and his pedigree is phenominal! I think he has a great chance in the derby.

Katherine 17 Apr 2009 4:54 PM

Anti Dray: You said Desert party will be coming home chasing Dunkirk and QR... QR most definately will be the favorite along with IWR.. Dunkirk should be following close behind. What gets me is people just KNOWING who will win and calling all the others bums. BUMS??? get real...

My concern with PON... wouldn't you want the question about the dirt answered before the derby???? That baffles me. Yes, Baffert knows his horses, but that just seems goofy to me.

Karen2 17 Apr 2009 5:01 PM

My humble apologies Anti-D, I misread your initial comments.  Desert Party you say...yes indeed he will be a most generous price.  However, be wary my angry pen-pal, I too once fell under the spell of the shippers from the mysterious East(Worldy Manner, etc.) only to be left mumbling.  Now of course Desert Party has raced in the states, so perhaps he will not succumb to the curse.  But I don't know what it is, it just seems that when they come from the kingdom of Dubai they leave something on the tarmac...besides the usual stuff.

Crumbles 17 Apr 2009 5:17 PM

Pioneerof the Nile deserves enormous respect in the Derby. He's one of only two unbeaten Derby-bound colts in 2009, all in stakes races. (The other is Friesan Fire.) POTN has lifetime graded stakes winnings of $1,193,250, which is a measure of his class. Speed is harder to assess due to the differences in synthetic vs. dirt, but  his average speed figure for his two-turn preps is respectable. POTN also has a trainer who wins with 26% of his graded stakes starters, 4th best of the 2009 Derby trainers (info is N/A on the Dubai trainer).

General Quarters also should be respected. I rank him just below my top four. He's won two of his four races in 2009. His breeding definitely suggests he should get 1 1/4 miles. The main question mark I have is that his dirt two-turn speed figure average is lower than several other colts. On the other hand, condition is a big factor for me. GQ is in a one-horse stable, so he's getting his owner/trainer's undivided attention and, presumably, lots of TLC.

At the moment, my Derby handicapping is incomplete. I'm working on horses to eliminate from my consideration. So far, I've eliminated Charitable Man, Flying Private, Mine That Bird, Take the Points, West Side Bernie, and Win Willy, and am close to eliminating Dunkirk, Giant Oak, Mr. Hot Stuff, Musket Man, and Summer Bird. I'm waiting to see (or at least read about) everyone's final works.

For Big Red 17 Apr 2009 5:56 PM

Crumbles good point. Crumbles cant focus on the past. If american horses can go dominate in dubai why cant it be the same for horses from dubia?? Also the horses were shipped early this year to get ready for the states. Desert party has the pedigree to get it done. Karen cant wait for your horses to fold faster the the french.

anti draynay and thong song! 17 Apr 2009 5:57 PM

TO anti draynay and thong song!: You wrote, "The reason that gomez is not getting on POTN is because he is a bum..."

Not even the cheapest claimer is a bum. Horses just try to serve their humans as best they can.

BTW, your posts make think you are Draynay. You write exactly like him (her?). Same emotional level, same grammatical tics, same style of humor, and same contempt for everyone else's opinion but your own. :)

For Big Red 17 Apr 2009 6:08 PM

I love General Quarters.  He won has maiden race at Churchill and raced there several times.  He has been in 2 turn races 3 times this year, he has a good 2 year old foundation and he will have a jockey that rides regularly at Churchill Downs.  I think if he gets a good post position he will have a great chance to win.  I don't think the race can be won from Post 20 as it was last year.

carol b 17 Apr 2009 6:18 PM

My problem with Pioneerof the Nile is that he is not an agile horse or a push button horse.He has to wear down the competition and his winning margins as a 3yr old have been small.In a 20 horse field that is a huge problem.

Max E. 17 Apr 2009 6:21 PM

Just read that Gomez is going to ride Stardom Bound in the Oaks and Smith is officially off.  I don't know if she can rebound or not but it is hard not to like Rachael Alexander a lot.

lobieb 17 Apr 2009 6:42 PM

I just have a feeling POTN will not be a threat to win this race. I dont have any faith in IWR either. I think the winner is from 3 horses only: FF, QR,or DK.

Mike 17 Apr 2009 6:50 PM

Everything depends on the draw.Many times the best horse doesn't win because of racing luck. Closers really have to have a ton of luck. Pace will also have a lot to do with the outcome.Lot of these horses appear to be peaking at the right time.Wide open but I think Revenge, Quality  and Fire will be in the mix but wouldn't be surpised by anyone winning there are a  dozen who have a good chance. Too tough to bet for me but should be enjoyable to watch.

Greg , your vision of nic winning was wrong hope you have better luck with your picks here "they are better quality horses."

2 time valley player of the year 17 Apr 2009 6:50 PM

After the Wood-I Want Revenge is my pick-I would love it if General Quarters won-what a story.

katy746 17 Apr 2009 7:10 PM

If everything comes out fine with Square Eddie this Saturday, win or not, and assuming he runs May 2nd, I'm betting $100 to win on him come Derby day, on the nose!. Hehe, GL everyone.

Curlin (Jay) 17 Apr 2009 7:59 PM

I don't care for any of the favorites. The 3 I like are all relative longshots. Papa Clem,

General Quarters and West Side Bernie - before anyone laughs about WSB; the 2nd place finisher of the Wood has a much better chance of winning the Derby than the winner of the Wood.

AnneM 17 Apr 2009 8:00 PM

Anti Dray..... Maybe I should change my name to anti anti draynay and thongsong. You can't wait for my horses to fold faster than the french??? I haven't picked a horse. So what horse would that be? I am a little bit more realistic than you. I know anything can and will happen in the derby. Not one of these horses should be called "garbage" or "bums". They are a talented group of three year olds. You are disrespecting the reason we are all involved and love this industry. Clearly you are a fly by night fan and your only interest is to cash in and win a few bucks. I hope you cash in and move on.

Karen2 17 Apr 2009 8:22 PM

SQUARE EDDIE is going to shock the board baby!!! He defeated POTN twice, while POTN defeated everybody's darling I WANT REVENGE twice. SQUARE EDDIE'S loss to the PAMPLEMOUSSE in the San Rafael was flattering when you consider what THE PAMPLEMOUSSE went on to do in THE SHAM, and what he would have done to POTN in the SANTA ANITA DERBY...SQUARE EDDIE TO THE BANK BABY!!!

Mark 17 Apr 2009 8:29 PM

Mark: I believe we lost out on the Pamp. If he was still a contender, he would be my favorite for sure.

Karen2 17 Apr 2009 8:55 PM

Mark, keep in mind that the two time I want revenge lost to Pioneerof of the Nile it was very short, first, and then, it was on synthetic. The Derby is on dirt and we saw that I want revenge can do anything on dirt, even with a bad trip. On the other hand, Pioneerof of the nile had a easy race with every won...

Katie 17 Apr 2009 10:17 PM

My top pick is Pioneer of the Nile.

I think if he wins the Derby, he has a good chance at the Crown. I am really liking General Quarters now, and will consider Square Eddie, depending on how he does at Keeneland. I also like Friesan Fire, Dunkirk, and Desert Party.

Kyoldfashioned 17 Apr 2009 10:35 PM

I think it's clear that POTN's Robert Lewis was/is the best race run yet by a horse of this crop...POTN should be there in the last 1/16...I believe with I Want Revenge and I also think General Quarters will finish in the top four! In other words, we see eye to eye as it were! I was impressed with The General at Keeneland/ he wants the Derby distance/is peaking at right moment...will also include Hold Me Back in exotics...but POTN/IWR/GQ are my Derby Threesome!

Matthew W 17 Apr 2009 10:53 PM

The thing that bothers me the most about the Pioneerof The Nile debate is that Papa Clem, I Want Revenge, and Pioneerof The Nile, none of them, ever raced on dirt before I Want Revenge and Papa Clem headed out of town....after getting beat by Pioneerof The Nile.

So now, because they both have had success on natural dirt, that somehow is supposed to mean that Pioneerof The Nile won't?

I don't get it.  It seems that Pioneerof The Nile is, for some reason, being downgraded by winning the races that he did!

Pioneerof The Nile's speed figures are less than inspiring, to be sure.  But so were those that finished behind him, particularly Papa Clem and I Want Revenge.  We know how much both those horses improved on conventional dirt.  But just because Pioneerof The Nile won those synthetic races, that's supposed to mean that he's a synthetic specialist that can't prevail on dirt?

There is no logic in this.  I am in no way saying that Pioneerof The Nile will win the Derby.....he's about 3rd or 4th on my list right now.  But to dismiss him because he won 2 GI's and 2 Grade II's on a synthetic track against a horse or two that went out of town to excel is just craziness!

His sire won the Belmont, and his damsire won the Santa Anita Handicap......and need I remind anybody who his trainer is?

Dangerous!

Paseana 17 Apr 2009 10:58 PM

I really like these 2. But what kind of factor will the traffic in the derby play for POTN assuming he comes from far back off a hot pace? Just wondering...

Dressage123 17 Apr 2009 11:03 PM

Can't knock PON and appreciate the great review on him.  I'm in the "wish he had a dirt start camp" though as we have all seen that for many horses it does make a difference.  I liked IWR before but his last race made me a fan. Tough, gritty performance with a closing kick in good time.  Also like FF and I have a soft spot for Chocolate Candy.  Love the bloodlines and think he is an improving horse.  I must say, after watching Rachel Alexandria I'm almost disappointed she won't be making a Derby appearance but understand the decision.  Bottom line folks, they'll be a great race on May 2nd.

ezevans 18 Apr 2009 8:51 AM

Can everyone quit talking about General Quarters please?  

He was my sleeper Derby all along, and now people just can't say enough about him.  

Even Gary Stevens is on HRTV talking about the way he is carrying flesh and the 1 1/2 gallop he had the other day.

Was hoping for 20-1, but he is quickly developing into the "wise guy" horse for Derby week.

The only reason I don't like POTN is his running style.  I know they ran SA Derby differently, but "late turn of foot" is better suited to grass racing.

Can you win the Derby that way?  History says no.  You have to be up there with the leaders turning into the stretch or you get blocked off or have to go too wide.

If one horse had been down on the rail, Street Sense (GO PITT!!!) would never have won.

Anti dray.....you say all the other horses are bums?  In the 1973 Derby, Secretariat beat a horse named Forego who would go on to do some pretty good things.  You never know.

jamesb 18 Apr 2009 9:15 AM

Not sure why everyone is so high on Dunkirk. Not only did he give up in the Florida Derby, he is not seasoned (and unlike Big Brown) has not beaten anyone. He also has Pletcher who is winless for the Derby in double digit tries. I think we are looking at the West Coast this year for our Derby winner and my bet is POTN, IWR or Chocolate Candy. I loved FF until Jones decided to take seven weeks off with him. I am a little concerned that POTN hasn't gotten a beyer of above 100 ( a must for a Derby winner) but I think he would have been much faster and scored a higher beyer if there was some pace in the SA Derby. I also think synthetics are quirky with beyers.

nostalgic horse 18 Apr 2009 9:55 AM

POTN is a toss for me to end up in the top 3 positions. I didnt like him that much and looking at his breeding it doesnt look great for the 1 1/4 distance.

Mike 18 Apr 2009 10:00 AM

FOR BIG RED and KAREN2, I feel the same way you do. There are no bum horses out here. They are animals who go out and do the best they are capable of. Whether they are $4,000 claimers or Grade 1 winners they are all equal and deserve our respect for what they do, not our class judgement. I am in the game for the love of the sport and the horse. Yes, I do like to cash winning tickets also. I can sit for hours watching HRTV because I love to watch horses run not even placing a bet.

DONNA 18 Apr 2009 10:32 AM

For Big Red and Karen2 DITTO. There is no such thing as a bum horse. I love them all, winner or not. They all run their hearts out whatever their gifts. I think POTN's issue isn't the surface but may be the distance. I think going from synthetic to dirt is easier than the reverse. But, I still like QR, IWR, Friesan Fire and then POTN. Would like to see what Square Eddie does today. I don't think Dunkirk is going to be 1 or 2.

Paula Higgins 18 Apr 2009 12:50 PM

Sorry Karen 2 i am probably at the track more than i should be. I will be here for the preaknes, belmont, travers, allowance races you name it I am not going anywhere. Your right the horses are not bums they are nice animals that wont hit the board. So when I am making dollars and your scrathing your head to figure out what happend with your 2 dollar show bet then come talk to me!

amph44 18 Apr 2009 1:02 PM

I don't bet amph44 so no need to worry about my 2 dollar show bet. I have never once bet on a race and I have been watching since the 70's. I am not a gambler. Just don't like people who call other horses "garbage". I could care less who hits it big at the betting window. Just don't disrespect the stars of this show.

Karen2 18 Apr 2009 1:43 PM

KY Derby all entry deserve respect after all they have to earn their keeps to get in,that said to play this one must be open minded not to get stuck on one selection the facts is who ever can handle the distance will win. any favorite can win, but value is the game.    Ky Derby the Gold Rush $$$$

playdrace 18 Apr 2009 1:51 PM

Yes will everyone please stop talking about GQ. I like PON but I don't think he wins here. QR is dangerous in what might be a paceless race. I still have to wait on a real pick though 2 weeks out is to long. I hope SQE bounces back today would be a nice story going to the derby. FF and Larry Jones would to got to root for him after the last 2 years what a story. I never cashed my ticket on the EB/BB exacta couldn't do it same as I couldn't cash a winning ticket in the Preakness when Barbaro broke down. These horses are not bums and if you can't see the beauty when the longest shot gives his all, then you are know fan of horse racing. Go find another sport to bet on.

ROWNER 18 Apr 2009 3:52 PM

FF is the only real push button horse in the race besides maybe DK who may get compromised by traffic considering it appears the early fractions will be average at best this year. I look for QR to have the lead entering the final turn and for FF to blow past him going down the stretch. FF reminds me a little bit of Smarty Jones with his push button final moves. QR is no BB imo.

Mike 18 Apr 2009 6:06 PM

Karen the only two stars at the show are QR and Desert party the rest are allowance stars

amph44 18 Apr 2009 6:30 PM

Here's my two sense:

Dunkirk: Overrated. He hasn't beaten anyone of class. I think he will be outclassed in the derby.

FF: Too long of a break and the horse hasn't run this length.

QR: He's got some tact, but again,  the best he's beat is dunkirk....

IWR: Should hit the board, but shipped east because he couldn't get a win against the competitors of the west.... that should tell you something.

GQ: Great story, good horse, im not sure what to think of him yet.

POTN: Granted he is on synthetic, but look what everyone (he has beat) has done when they have shipped to dirt! in his last couple of races he has TOYED with his opponents, he hasn't really had to try. IMO could be a crown contender.

Dale 18 Apr 2009 7:24 PM

Anti Dray - Dunkirk has not won a stakes race much less a graded stakes race.  QR is proving he has matured as well as Friesan Fire who has won 3 in a row all graded races.  POTN if he takes to the dirt, will be a factor as well as GQ.  When it is all said and done, I think the westcoast horse will show they are better this year.

eazyroad 18 Apr 2009 7:41 PM

Square Eddie ran a great race today, in a losing cause. But coming off of a long layoff like that, wow, what a move around the final turn. It can only help (tightener) that he comes back in 2 weeks for the big one. Still my choice.

Curlin (Jay) 18 Apr 2009 8:20 PM

easyroad, POTN = Colonel John imo. Something tells me GQ will be no threat to win either. I agree on QR and FF but I think you are underestimating DK's chances as he should have a little more air this time. I think with DK it will all come down to if traffic compromises him or not. If he gets a clean trip he will be a factor at the end imo.

Mike 18 Apr 2009 9:10 PM

I agree with you 100%, Karen2. I hate when horses are discribed as "bums" or other such names when they don't win. Like you, I am a huge racing fan. I watch TVG every day & develop favorites I like to keep track of thru out their careers. I have never bet on a race in my life. I watch, too, when I don't know a single thing about the horses running, except that I love to watch them race.

I am a registered nurse & work nights. So, during the day as I sleep, I keep the TV on & it's always on TVG. All race horses, fast or slow are a thing of beauty to watch, in my opinion. I also believe that betting on a race would detract from the enjoyment of watching it. God knows I work too hard to put my money at such risk. I have owned horses for more than 25 yrs, including a 5 yr. old racehorse who retired from racing last May. He is magnificent to watch running in his paddock. The very last word that would ever come to mind to describe him is a "bum". I have met many human "bums" in my life, but never met any horse "bums".

I would absolutely love to see General Quarters win the Derby. Besides loving the horse, I'd love for Mr. McCarthy to win it after 50 yrs. of being in the game. He has certainly paid his dues.

ColetteMarie

ColetteMarie 18 Apr 2009 11:16 PM

POTN - this horse has basically done nothing wrong. I don't trust synthetic Beyers so I'm not too concerned that he hasn't cracked 100. He is in the hands of one of the absolute best trainers when it comes to the Derby. To totally dismiss this horse for any reason could be foolhardy.

DUNKIRK - may end up being the most talented of the entire group. I do, however, have a big concern that he did not race as a 2 yr. old. That and the fact that 3 lifetime races do not bode well for the Derby winner profile could lead to possible underlay status May 2nd.

FRIESAN FIRE - has steadily improved his last 3 races. Don't necessarily like the 7 week layoff or the fact that he has never run beyond 1 1/16 miles. But don't dismiss Larry Jones' ability to prepare a horse and this one is bred to absolutely love 1 1/4 miles.

I WANT REVENGE - if his performance in the Wood didn't impress you then you need to take up another sport. WOW! Left at the gate, blocked in mid-stretch and looking like there was no way to win. Talk about a turn of foot - he found several more gears and crushed a so-so group. But to me the most important thing here was he showed he was a fighter. He bulled his way through, accelerated, and won easily. Experience like that will be a definite asset on Derby day.

QUALITY ROAD - his class showed in the FLA Derby. He was hooked at the top of the stretch, dug it and gutted out the win. Invaluable experience.

I believe the Derby winner will come from one of these horses. Although I am leaning towards Friesan Fire I will not make my top selection until I see how they all work at CD. Once I make my top pick I will be keying that horse in all 4 slots of the Superfecta.

riserun stable 19 Apr 2009 7:49 AM

Good article. It does seem that these two do not get as much respect as the others. Pioneer of the Nile, the knock seems to be that he has not run on dirt. Well, his trainer is well versed in winning this race and his sire, Empire Maker, ran pretty well on dirt. Plus he has already beat many of the others (IWR; Papa Clem; etc.) I'd say he gets no respect if he is not the first or second choice at post time.

General Quarters perhaps is not more highly regarded due to running at lower levels until recently. Plus some might say that this year's Blue Grass was weak. However you must admit the horse has run on many different tracks and given a good account of himself. Plus check out the workouts he had at Churchill Downs right before the Blue Grass. He evidently likes CD a lot. If he's for real, he could make for some nice numbers in the exacta and trifecta.

In 13 days we'll find out who deserves the respect!

Old Timer 19 Apr 2009 8:52 AM

Horses are never bums.  Trainers ARE!  Jeff Mullins get a seven day suspension beginning the day AFTER Derby.  How convenient!  

EMD 19 Apr 2009 10:54 AM

POTN is a galloper and in a race like the Kentucky Derby that is a disadvantage. plus he does not have a good name !

FF is a good horse- but has imperfect front legs.

QR is a good horse but can he stay 1 1/4 miles.

Sq Eddie ran a big race and will be a factor.

GQ appears to be horse of destinty and barring bad luck should win

Shimatoree 19 Apr 2009 11:37 AM

I saw someone above said that PON was a bum and that was why gomez wasn't riding him.  I think I just saw that gomez decided to go with PON over Dunkirk so what do you Say Now!!!!!

rowner 19 Apr 2009 2:31 PM

No horse is a bum and to the person who said that Anti-Draynay sounds like Draynay I think you may be right. As for my pick well I have to stay with Pioneerof theNile, I started liking him at 2 and have liked his performances as a 3 year old. Still like I Want Revenge and have been thinking that possible upsets could be General Quarters or Musket Man. I think a few people are not giving Musket Man a fair shot and he may sneak by everyone. That's the joy (or pain) of horse racing.

Julie L. 19 Apr 2009 7:33 PM

Triple crown contender are u kidding me! Jockeys play a huge role in the KD so scrath IWR. Prado will be on Dunkirk aka a huge bonus. Gomez is a good jockey but what is his best finish in the big dance 9th lol! Good luck with POTN he wont even see the board.

amph44 19 Apr 2009 7:49 PM

LMAO @ ColetteMarie,

You wouldn't put your money at such risk as betting on a horse? Instead you buy one and risk it that way? A $2 bet is much easier to lose than buying a horse who costs you thousands b4 he or she hits the track or worse yet never even makes it to racing. Then if they make it to a race and turn out to be a bum on the track you are out everything you put into it and still stuck with the money sucker. I call that high risk. That's a quicker way to lose money than some illegal ponzie scheme.

As for this blog and the question at hand for General Quarters to get some respect as a Derby contender he would have had to learn to run faster and do it on dirt. To this date he's just not fast enough to be taken as a serious threat. On top of that he hasn't beaten any of the better 3 yr olds this year. General Quarters isn't the one who'll be wearing the blanket of roses on May 2nd.

Pioneer Of The Nile just gained some respect when the top jock in the country chose him over Dunkirk. If it were the other way around he may have gone off at 15-1 on derby day. Now he'll be one of the top 5 choices or better.

I certainly won't be betting any money on General Quarters to win, that's not going to happen. As for Pioneer Of The Nile he's not on the top of my list either but may warrant a saver bet.

gw_bushwacker 19 Apr 2009 9:31 PM

I will save all of you some time.  Place Quality Road on top and place Musket Man, Dunkirk, Desert Party, Mr. Hot Stuff and Chocolate Candy on the bottom of your tickets and call it a day.

draynay 19 Apr 2009 11:41 PM

I like the story behind General Quarters and am rooting for him in the KY Derby!

Mary Lucas 20 Apr 2009 9:46 AM

Mike,

    Spot on about "Friesan Fire"...

"Friesan Fire" is my SURE top pick.

The rest depends on post and track conditions(I hope it rains for a week straight, lol)

2."General Quarters"

3."Chocolate Candy"

Enough Said.....

Greg J. 20 Apr 2009 10:28 AM

I just don't see it with Pioneerof the Nile.  To me, the horse is still too unprofessional to win the Derby-- look how rank he was in the Santa Anita Derby.  In addition, he just isn't fast enough.  I see him as a less talented Colonel John.

I'll put I Want Revenge on top, and play GQ and Regal Ransom as longshots as well.  Quality Road and Dunkirk will get strong consideration on my tickets as well-- QR's performances speak for themselves, and Dunkirk made an amazing move against the speed bias and the bias favoring the inside horse at 1 & 1/8 at GP.  In all likelihood, he needs more seasoning, but you can't ignore him on Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets.  Friesan Fire rounds out the set of win contenders.  

Ibeaux 20 Apr 2009 10:36 AM

Thanks for the tip nay nay. I've already got those combinations locked up from futures pool 2 and 3 exactas at returns we won't see on Derby Day. Of course I have some other combinations as well. I'm pretty well set except for my tri and super bets. If Quality Road doesn't win I have some high return saver exactas from the same pools at a very minimal price. Let's fast forward to May 2nd and get on with the race.

the_wiz 20 Apr 2009 10:56 AM

Wonder if POTN is capable of running on real dirt. I've knocked Dunkirk so much because of his sire, but if he makes it (still 2 weeks)then this may be the race of his life before he retires. I don't see him racing through this entire year,  he's not bred for that,  he's bred for that one great race before retirement.

Whatever 20 Apr 2009 11:51 AM

Desert party will not be in top four.an easy throw out.

steve s 20 Apr 2009 4:21 PM

Whatever...how can you say that about Dunkirk? He's one of only 2 horses in this Derby with a 2, or any number, in the "Professional" in his DI...which horses in his pedigree were not bred for distance or longevity? Unbridled? Secretariat? AP Indy? Seattle Slew? Alydar? Caro? Weekend Surprise with 31 starts? Secret Status with 19 starts? Luckey Spell with 69 starts?

Probably you mean Unbridled's Song, who at least raced once as a 4 year-old (and won), but seems to pass on leg problems, a lot like Unbridled may have despite his 24 starts...but what about Honest Man, Awesome Ashley, Even the Score, Unbridled Elaine, Classify, One Caroline, Octave and many other Unbridled's Song runners including 4, 5, 6 year olds...who have way more than "one big race"...maybe it's the inbreeding as opposed to one horse in a pedigree that creates a problem.

da3hoss 21 Apr 2009 3:23 PM

Mike, what do you base your opinion about PotN's distance limitations? His sire won the Belmont, his damsire won the Santa Anita H, and his dam won a 2-turn stakes at Santa Anita. He is much better bred for the 10f distance than some of the east coast horses, who are by miler sires without any recent 2-turn winners in the family. They have already outrun their pedigrees, while PotN is just coming into a distance where he should excel.

Ann in Lexington 22 Apr 2009 7:34 PM

Beg pardon. Mixed up my mares. PotN's dam won a 7f stakes at Churchill; it was Chocolate Candy's dam who won the 2-turn stake at SA. But PotN's dam did win an 8f+ race according to APR.

CC's dam, by the way, was by Seattle Slew out of an Alydar-sired half-sister to Affirmed. Can't get a much better distance ped than that.

Ann in Lexington 22 Apr 2009 7:49 PM

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