When was this written?  Surely not on the April 9th of this year, since The Pamplemousse was out of the Derby by April 5th...

The "Mousse" is out of the Derby.  Musket Man and Win Willy were late nominated.  Might want to update your article.

There is Quality Road... a few steps lower there is Dunkirk... a few steps lower there is Pioneer of the Nile and then there is everybody else.

I agree that this article has lost its edge and relevance.  As things are right now with the current pace scenario Quality Road is getting ready for an afternoon stroll on Derby day.  Having said that, there is one trainer who doesn't bluff when it comes to throwing in rabbits to help the cause of his other horses, however This One's For Phil and any other qualified pacey front runner would have to plan a relay to try and undo QR's derby bid.  

When was this article written?

So what if TOFP could not get by Big Drama in track record time. BD buried TOFP at Calder twice, at 6 furlongs and at 1-1/16 miles. That track favors closers.

BD is not a frontrunner, Coa took over the lead because the first two calls were at a crawl. TOFP was right there the entire race. Both ran very good races, but the only other horse I can recall setting a track record off a big layoff was Seattle Slew who won a 7 furlong stakes race first race out as a 3 year old. Record time.

I gotta bilieve Big Drama is a Derby horse, but I hav'nt read much about him lateley. Anyone know his status? That horse, if he runs straight.... can win!

Quality Road will finish 10+ lengths behind the Derby winner.Watch and learn newbies.Then come back here and let us know how his "magnificent" #'s at GP came in effect @ Churchill,ok.

This article was posted on my blog on March 29, so yes it's a little late getting in here.  I submitted it prior to the SA Derby, the late noms, and THE P's scratch.

Before I get to your comments, why hasn't anyone mentioned I WANT REVENGE after that breathtaking WOOD MEMORIAL win???

I'd also like to know how you feel about this weekend's ARKANSAS DERBY and BLUE GRASS S.  Click on my blog name above or copy this (amateurcapper.blogspot.com) to see my attempt at handicapping with the Thoro-graph data.

DRAYNAY...great synopsis of your contenders, can't argue with any of them.  I believe that PIONEEROF THE NILE has a chance to pop a biggie on the synth/dirt switch as he ran very big on Cushion Track and a firmer version of Pro-ride than he encountered in his last two wins.

RANAGULZION...QUALITY ROAD no doubt holds a strong hand, but OLD FASHIONED may still be FRIESAN FIRE's rabbit.  I've been waiting for PAPA CLEM to win in Arkansas since the R.B. Lewis and he could add pace pressure if he proves himself this weekend.  No one's mentioned REGAL RANSOM's pace effect.  CHARITABLE MAN may yet prove he's Derby worthy with a win in the Blue Grass.

GERONIMO2123...my point about BD was that the GP main track was a conveyor belt on Florida Derby day, no passing.  Coa did the right thing and took the tactical edge from PHIL, who drew the disadvantageous rail, but I think PHIL was the better horse considering his trip and the track bias.  

SEAN...No way, no how is BIG DRAMA a Kentucky Derby horse...Ohio Derby, Pennsylvania Derby, West Virginia Derby maybe.  BD is a serious sprinter/miler in my opinion and QUALITY ROAD would eat his lunch at any distance.

SLEW.EM.ALL...your point about the inflated GP figures is legitimate, which is in part why I penned the piece.  You didn't mention who you thought was going to finish 10+ lengths ahead of QUALITY ROAD.

Amateurcapper: I've pegged IWR,POTN & FF as my Derby choices since late Jan./early Feb..and feel one of the 3 will win the Derby and complete the Tri.QR will be facing "Real,Gritty Horses" @ Churchill and will wilt down the lane.I don't understand why some people think he's going to get an easy lead or pace,they won't let that happen.

Slew.em.All:

You and I are two of the few who mention PIONEEROF THE NILE to win the Kentucky Derby.  He earned my respect with his Lewis win over eventual Gotham (G.3) and Wood Memorial (G.1) winner I WANT REVENGE and Saturday's Arkansas Derby (G.1) winner PAPA CLEM while giving weight to both. If you have a chance, read a piece on him that I posted February 13 (amateurcapper.blogspot.com/.../road-to-roses-and-triple-crown-courses.html).

Then from March 1 (amateurcapper.blogspot.com/.../who-wants-to-be-kentucky-derbytriple.html) read why I think QUALITY ROAD is a superior front runner.  After OLD FASHIONED went down with a saucer fracture today and last weekend's tendon injury to THE PAMPLEMOUSSE, QR may only need to deal with REGAL RANSOM for the first 6f.  His ability to sit off a confirmed front runner and still fight down the lane is quite unusual in a speed-type.

Finally from March 17 (amateurcapper.blogspot.com/.../pioneerof-nile-won-better-than-looked.html), I posted why PIONEER was more impressive winning the San Felipe than many think.

Let me know what you think.

With Old Fashioned now off the Derby Trail the pace scenario is getting better every day for Quality Road.  I wonder if SLEW.em.ALL would want to temper his confidence in his "bulldogs" with the changing scenario.  Quality Road is my firm fancy to squander this year's Derby field.  My "insurance" selections at this point will be General Quarters (I'm now convinced that he's for real) and Win Willy.

Amateurcapper: Read your blogspots and thought they were insightful,good job.

Many people are dismissing POTN's Derby chances because he hasn't raced on dirt,but like IWR,Papa Clem and so many others have shown,dirt should pose no problem,he's genuine...Also,I agree his prep wins have been workman-like and impressive considering the unconventional pace scenarios he faced.But,I must say that given the slow/mediocre fractions in his most recent wins,the same can be said about both Friesan Fire's & IWR's most recent wins also.They both sat behind so-so splits but seemed to accelerate a tad bit quicker than POTN,confirmed by their final 1/8th clockings.And maybe the synth' track has a say in it,but in the Cashcall Futurity @ Hollywood Park where it's more like dirt than Pro-ride @ Santa Anita,notice how IWR was closing furiously and just missed catching POTN,and @ Santa Anita(forgot the race)he seemed to be spinning his wheels and was passed by both POTN and Papa Clem late in the stretch?Plus we now know that IWR is a totally different animal on dirt tracks,possibly a Monster.

Quality Road has loads of talent,but I'm not quite sold on him yet.Mainly because the inflated times @ Gulfstream and his perfect trips where he sat behind cheap,sprinters speed in the FOY.All he really had to do there was wait for the sprinter to back-up and take over the lead,knowing that there was no chance of a closer to come and catch him because of the speed-favoring track variant.Also notice he barely beat a talented,inexperienced,tough,but tired Dunkirk who failed to change leads at a crucial time in the stretch.Obviously Dunkirk's tank was fairly empty after having to make that strong,sustained run on the far turn,and QR hadn't really been asked to run just yet..In the Ky Derby,I feel no matter what,the pace is always faster than normal,therefore I think QR will be at a disadvantage because he surely will be asked to make a run sooner than what he's accustomed to while trying to out-pace rivals that are more than just mere sprinters.And if that's the case,then he will get swallowed-up by the likes of IWR,POTN,FF and others who have a stronger late-kick.Honestly,I see him and Old Fashioned in the same light as both are high-cruisers who can carry their speed,are even-paced throughout,but don't have a potent stretch kick.QR will have to be used up earlier than anticipated in the Derby,therefore nullifying his best chance at separating himself from the field on the turn for home,IMO.

So,in saying all of that,I'll take either IWR,POTN or FF(don't think the 7weeks off will hurt him,he's plenty fit),who I feel are more tractable and speedier than what they've shown so far,and are confirmed stretch runners for sure.The loss of The Pamps' and OF is a boost to QR's chances though.But I still feel that the aforementioned 3 "Bulldogs" are going to be too much for him to handle come May 2nd.....sorry for the long diatribe....Peace!!

SLEW.em.ALL:  I notice that you are very modest on yourself (referring to diatribe) but very bullish on your "Bulldogs" and that's the way it ought to be.  Anyway your handicapping angles are no diatribe even if they happen to be offtrack this time around.  

I kind of enjoy reading the excuses being made for horses like Dunkirk, which, plain and simple, ran into a "hurricaine" in the Florida Derby and was blown away.  It is only the excuses for Dunkirk's loss that I would call diatribe.  Perhaps you'd better start preparing some apologetics for IWR, FF and POTN from now because they are going to be seeing a clean pair of heels (quarter crack and all) from Quality Road in the Derby.  

Let's look at the pace scenario as it stands right now.  Regal Ransom and Papa Clem are the only challengers on the front end and the questions to be answered are: 1)Can they live with QR beyond the first six furlongs going under 1:11 and change and hope to have a shot left for the home stretch?

2)If the fractions are slower, which horse can outrun QR up the lane (name one that has so far demonstrated that kind of closing kick, honestly ...no mumbo jumbo now)?

3)If the stalkers IWR and FF were to race just off QR's flank going at the pace mentioned above in question 1,(new speed territory for both your "Bulldogs") do you honestly think that they will be able to fire their usual closing shots and outrun a "ferrari" that would change gear if they ever "eyeballed" him?

SLEW, I know that you are not impressed with QR's closing kick but my friend the problem may be jaundiced vision.  Go back and view both the FOY and the Florida Derby.  Also watch Johnny V on board QR.  Your eyes might be opened and some new light shine through.

Forgive my immodesty for not calling my perspective diatribe but I hope that you were able to forbear my longwindedness in this matter.

AMATEURCAPPER: Thanks for this blog although I referred to it previously as having lost it's edge.  Hoping that we've helped to sharpen it a bit.

Ranagulzion:  Needless to say,but frankly QR has no closing kick,(check-out Dick Downey's latest piece for confirmation)or a switch in gears.He's a high cruiser,ala OF,one paced throughout.He won't be facing the sprinters like TOFP or Caseys on Call in the Derby.You're watching but not seeing the reality which is: He barely beat a tired Dunkirk!..and the "Bulldogs" are much better than Dunkirk,trust me on that.Let me reiterate something I said earlier: These "Bulldogs" will NOT hang in the stretch,in fact they'll be Rolling no matter what kinda' splits are posted.Plus,the quicker the splits,the better.

QR will undo himself,no need for the Bulldogs to try and chase him,as long as they run their race,they'll be closing like a pack of wolves on a tired Caribou.That's right,a tired Caribou.Hear me out buddy...QR=OF.His best chance at stealing the race is if he separates himself from the pack on the far-turn,but that's highly unlikely,because if the much heralded Dunkirk(btw,he's my gauge,not my pick)can rush up to his flank on a confirmed speed favoring track,then honestly what do you think the Bulldogs will do once they're eyeballing QR,hang?.I think not!QR cannot & will not scoot away from them..."Thine eyes,they blind you"!   stay thirsty my friend...ooh-rah!

Rana: BTW,I would suggest you distance yourself from "your boy" Circumstantial Evidence,err..Coldfacts..He actually thinks Summer Bird's 3rd in the Arkansas Derby is more impressive than IWR's Wood Memorial,..LMFAO..unbeleivable I tell ya'!

SLEW:  Your guage (Dunkirk) could turn out to be better than your pick especially if he takes along his "rabbit" this time in the hope of taking the points ...you know what I mean.

I like Coldfacts' input.  The output (deductions) sometimes remind me of a pig pulling a cartload of sausages ...drawing his own conclusion ... but his information does keep the sentimentalists grounded to Terra Firma.

Comparing Summer Bird with the accomplished IWR is a bit of a stretch right now but that colt is very promising and very well bred.