2015 Kentucky Derby Betting Analysis

Hello everyone, this is the exact thought process I went through to develop my betting strategy this year. As I am not a big player, but do tend to always leave with money in my pocket, consider this a scenario for the common fan. Maybe this will help give some inspiration to someone. Best of luck and have fun!

*A note that I do believe American Pharoah and Dortmund are the horses to beat, but I am betting for some sort of return.


If I had $50 budgeted to spend in my wagers, here is what I would plan to do according to how I think the race will play out.

Win/Place/Show: $12 total wagers
$2 - International Star - stalker/closer
$2 - Carpe Diem - speed

Place/Show: $4 total wagers
$2 - Mubtaahij (IRE)

Win: $6 total wagers
$2 - American Pharoah - speed
$2 - Dortmund - speed
$2 - Far Right - stalker/closer

Show: $8 total wagers
$2 - Keen Ice
$2 - War Story
$2 - Far Right
$2 - Firing Line

Exacta Box: $8 total wagers
$2 - International Star, War Story - I like this scenario as a possibility
$2 - Keen Ice, War Story - ‘cause the return for that $2 loss would be fun =)

Exacta or Trifecta of some sort:
International Star, Mubtaahij (IRE), Carpe Diem = tri box $12 … Betting on who I want to win, not the scenario I think will unfold.


other suggestions:
Long Shots to bet for a piece of the prize: Keen Ice and War Story.


This is what I think the safest bet might be, as far as an exotic goes:

Scenario: $112 total wager for $2 (trifecta) or $56 total wagers for $1 (trifecta) [none boxed/a straight bet]

American Pharoah, Dortmund
American Pharoah, Dortmund, International Star, Carpe Diem, Mubtaahij (IRE)
American Pharaoh, Dortmund, International Star, Carpe Diem, Mubtaahij (IRE), Keen Ice, War Story, Far Right, Firing Line


The Strategizing...

My overall top pick was El Kabeir. He has won at Churchill Downs and I liked his race in New York. Yes he was beat by Frosted, but its a new race, a new day, and 20 horses, but gained a good post position and Calvin Borel. He is now out, so here is what I have to wade through…

primary listing...
18 American Pharaoh
3 Materiality *good in rain
2 Carpe Diem
8 Dortmund - has won at churchill
12 International Star
6 Mubtaahij (IRE)

round out ticket…
10 Firing Line
*14 Keen Ice - won at Churchill, by Curlin = long shot to bet
*16 War Story - won at Churchill, must consider if betting Keen Ice
*22 Tale of Verve - has run at Churchill [3rd]
20 Far Right - lots of experience, Mike Smith jockey

Tencendur - out matched but a closer, use if raining
Danzig Moon - out matched but a closer


Pre Thought Consideration Process…

Below are the notes after reading through the past performances of the horses alone, available with That Handicapping Show. The information may be partial or incomplete, because there were just quick notes.

18 [5-2] American Pharaoh (beat Far Right, Mr. Z, Bold Conquest) *undefeated/speed
6 [20-1] Mubtaahij (IRE) *too slow?
12 [20-1] International Star (beat Stanford, War Story, Keen Ice) (beat by El Kabeir) *closer, may want to bet with War Story

2 [8-1] Carpe Diem (beat Danzig Moon, Ochox3, Mr. Z) (beat by Upstart) *speed/stalker
3 [12-1] Materiality (beat Upstart and Stanford) *speed

19 [15-1] Upstart (beat Frosted, Itsaknockout, Frammento) (beat by Materiality, Carpe Diem) *slowest 1 1/8 race

10 [12-1] Firing Line (beat Mr. Z) (beat by Dortmund) *speed
4 [30-1] Tencendur (beat El Kabeir) (beat by Frosted, El Kabeir) *closer
5 [30-1] Danzig Moon (beat Ochox3) (beat by Carpe Diem) *closer
16 [50-1] War Story (2nd to International Star twice, beat Keen Ice) (beat by Stanford)
20 [30-1] Far Right (beat Mr. Z) (beat by Pharoah, Mr. Z, Ochox3) *closer

8 [3-1] Dortmund (beat Bolo, Mr. Z, Firing Line) *speed/Big Brown

* if you bet Firing Line, you must bet Dortmund
* if you bet Tencendur, must bet Frosted

*Ocho x 3 is by Street Sense, bet Carpe Diem and Danzig Moon if chosen

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