Jason,

I'm a QR fan and I hope he wins but I was just wondering if you weren't sold on him because of the surface or any other reason. He seems to be training well and sitting on a big effort. Pletcher has said he's learned to relax a bit. I'm concerned about the surface of course and of course the competition. Should have a really nice field for the Classic.

Which classic is Zenyatta's preference?No way will she run against the boys in the real Classic-won't be unbeaten if she does.

I agree Frank.  Quality Road REALLY didn't want to give it up in the Jockey Gold but he had too much working against him and the slop didn't help.  A dry track and he wins by 3 and is the favorite going into the Classic.  I believe we are finally going to get a chance to see a great horse at his best.  All year long with him its been "what if".  I think Quality Road catching a fast dry track and fully recovered from injury means doom for everyone else.  I expect Quality Road to dominate.  Gayego is my lock of the entire meet.  He may run the fastest finishing 300 yards I have ever seen in a sprint. I would love to see it again and I believe I will.  When Gayego runs he wins about half the time I say he wins again for fun.

Jason, what do you think of Rainbow View pointing for the Distaff instead of the F&M Turf?  Does this change your handicapping of the race at all?  

Ladies Classic

Since I  need value I will take Rainbow View who has big Racing Post Number of 116

Take off 12 points 104 Beyer then

boy i can hear dray now

I'm glad to see Zen has first pref. in the Classic. I'm suprised that the Ladies Clissic has such a small field. I had been thinking Seventh Street might go if Zen went to the Classic. I'm all Careless Jewel in the Ladies Classic.

As for the dirt mile, I like Pyro and Regal Ransom. They both are talented enough to win it. And in the Juv. fillies I'm going with Regal's baby sister Devil May Care, I fell in love with her when she broke her maiden and proved she has guts when it counts. For the Juv. fillies turf I'm going to go with Tapitsfly. I love the Tapit fillies and this one may have a price.  

As soon as i saw Girolamo had his preference in the classic, i picked him to round out my exacta with RVP on top.  And Mastercraftsman is going to win the *Dirt* Mile in a waltz, and that is saying something considering the quality of the field.

Zenyatta won't even finish in the money in the classic. What a way to end a career.

Classic

Since race will Likely be run in a slow manner and need something reliable,i will take Richard's Kid,who ran third in Local Prep

I Dont trust Col John

I'm a bit disappointed in the number of horses entered in races like the Ladies' Classic and F&M Turf.  Are owners/trainers afraid to face the likes of Careless Jewel and Forever Together, or is there something else going on?  And I understand the issue with synthetics, but turf is turf, and it's especially hard at SA.

I see that Colonel John is cross-entered in the Turf Mile (albeit 2nd choice).  I like him in that spot, what are the odds he goes there?  Do the owners and E. Harty wait to see if there are defections in either race before they choose?

I was suprised to see Summer Bird cross entered in the Turf, as well as Giralamo in the classic. As soon as I saw Giralamo's name in the pre-entries, I started to think about how good that horse can be and what the hell we are going to do now with the classic?? This is a deep field of talented Colts.

I am going out on a limb here, but Crown of Thorns should be ready to roll for the mile. Mandella knows how to win at Santa Anita, no matter the surface. This is going to be a great 2 days of handicapping. Good luck to all. I hope you enjoy reading my blog.

Pardon my ignorance but will you clarify the deadline: do you mean submit picks by midnight on Tuesday or midnight on Wednesday next week?

(I ask because midnight on Tuesday is technically November 4.)

The most interesting thing is the preference of the Classic for Zenyatta.  For me, that will make the race so much more interesting.  I truly hope she runs the Classic but it's still not certain.

Jason--

Do you think that Zenyatta has a real chance in the classic? Don't you think she'll get caught up in major traffic?

Since Bob Baffert is best trainer in Cal-i will take ALWAYS A PRINCESS in JUV F

Blind Luck will need to be lucky to beat her this time

Since I am having a bad year picking winners i need COURT VISION to give some help-i know Dutrow wants to get after that that Goldakova

Hi Jason! I'm totally jealous of you and everyone who gets to go the Breeder's Cup this year. I tried to save enough $$ to go since its so close to me(I live in Portland, Oregon)but didn't quite make it for this year. I did visit Santa Anita last April after their spring meet closed and everyone was extremely nice. In fact, they let us in for free since we were just sight-seeing and not there to do any betting of the simulcast racing. Took lots of pictures, got to feel what the Pro-ride was like, but the best part of all was when the nice people of the Thoroughbred's Club gave me a souvenir of the actual dirt track,(that was there before the Pro-ride)and it was made into a paperweight. They told me that it was the same dirt the Seabiscuit ran on! What an incredible backdrop for next week's races! Have lots of fun and can't wait for the races or this Breeders Cup chat contest!!!!!

Hey  Jason

Just took a look at the pre entries, the races all seemed to come up good.

The Classic so far appears to be really tight on paper. Any one of those horses can run a big one and win it. I hope Zenyatta goes in this race, I will probably bet her if she does. I really Like Quality Road and Rip Van Winkle also. A good race though, wide open.

I was looking to see Stardom Bound, I thought she was showing up for the ladies Classic.

Jason On a side note, Have you seen St. Nicholas Abbey?

Since Red Rocks Won his Breeders cup on off going-no one will be betting on this one-should get great price on forgotten horse

           Turf    

Hi jason just a note and a sugestion. have you noticed that neither Rik van winkle or mastercraftmen have won at the mile and a quater distances in europe which i think the best they are going to finish is 2nd or 3rd in the classic. i think this year the pro ride is not going to matter for the americans in the classic. also how about changin the contest from the winner writing a blog to something more valuable like get the winner a saturday program sign by all the jockeys in the classic, that will make it more intersting, plus you should have accest to then like a reporter.

F/M turf

Visit LOOKED LIKE WINNER LAST YEAR-maybe she can save her year with a victory-she needs a win in most Desperate way

I think that Colonel John should

run in the turf mile...  I think that was a smart idea by the connections to pre-enter both...

I'll believe Zenyatta is running in the male Classic when I see it.  

Earlier they kept saying they wanted to see how the fields shape up before they make a final decision.  They seem WAAAAY too cautious to go in the full field of males when they can go in the shorter field with fillies.

It's good to see Shireffs and Moss leaning towards the Classic.  It's about time the mare had a chance to prove her greatness.  It's enough if she runs well in that race to validate her ability.  She proves nothing by beating the same old California fillies and mares over and over again.  

It surprised me too, a little, to see the small field for the Ladies Classic.  I see Rainbow View as a threat if she goes.  I love "Rachel's deputy" Careless Jewel, just don't know about her previous competition.  Think it was weak for the most part.  

Whether or not I include Lethal Heat in any bets, I pray she hits the board or whatever it will take so they don't run her Saturday too.  I think it's a bad, bad idea, and if they are wanting to do it Saturday I hope the vet takes a long, hard look.

JUV F TURF

I DONT KNOW A THING about Hatheer but I  Play the best Trainer in grass game

Leaning ? Right, and I am leaning towards giving Jason a million dollars.  I haven't made a final decision yet I will have to wait and see how my bank account comes out of the bills I have to pay but I am leaning that way.  Ultimately I will let my bank account tell me if its ready but I am leaning that way. Geez.

Maybe CHAD BROWN Can get a win in Turf Sprint with SILVER TIMBER-sure looked good last out

No love for einstien huh, QR should crush on a dry track. I have been with him all year so cannot go against him. Take one unit across the board and pray!

I cant play GODOLPHIN this year because They will OfFER no value now-If by chance GODOLPHIN EURO'S are a longshot on grass i will play

Josue, Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator had never one at 1mile and a 1/4.  And they blew away the field.  Rik (as you call him) will win with ease.  Keep in my mind both Rik and mastercraftsman both barely lost to Sea the Stars at a distance of a mile and a quarter.

You have to respect Zenyatta's connections for letting that Great Mare end her career vs. the toughest field of males assembled this year @ 1 1/4m.The distance should not be a problem,pace should be swift enough and she seems to be peaking for her best yet.She's that good,and she'll definitely be in my tix.

I told you they'd point her towards the Classic Jason.It takes massive 'Huevos' to do what they're doing,considering her unblemished record and all.

I still can't figure out why they're running Pyro on synthetics again,he clearly does not like them.Why not try him on Turf in the Mile or Sprint,with that turn of foot & pedigree he should be dangerous.Go figure.

Tiznowfan

I know The Colonel ran well in his only start on turf, but i think he is better on the Pro ride , and also , I don't think he wants any part of that turf race. He is a Stalker and a long striding horse, he doesn't quicken, he extends his stride. There is no way he will be able to come home with the likes of Goldikova, Delegator,Justenoughumor

He has a much better chance of winning the classic.

I'm disappointed that Stardom Bound does not appear to be running in any of the races, although I'm not surprised.  She has had no prep races and I'm afraid she was over-raced like Proud Spell last year.  I like Summer Bird and Rip Van Winkle in the Classic, but I don't think the Classic is the race for Zenyatta.  I still think Zenyatta gets beat in either race she enters, either by Rip Van Winkle or Summer Bird in the Classic or Proviso or Careless Jewel in the Ladies.  She just does not look like the monster she was a year ago.  The only advantage she has is being over 17 hands, when most of the horses are 15 to 16 hands.  17 is a monster sized horse, closer to the size of a draft horse than most thoroughbreds.  That's why her stride is 1 to every 2 of every other filly she's raced.  Only other horse I can think of that was close to her size was Eight Belles.

That said, it's going to take a LOT for Zenyatta to win.  The jockeys are all aware of her running style and I think the Classic in particular won't suit it.  She has won in small field races and the Classic is a full field and she will hit traffic, something I don't remember her ever facing.  She'd be better suited for the Ladies, but there are two, maybe three, horses in it that I think have a better than good chance to beat her (Proviso, Careless Jewel and Music Note).  Mushka might be able to do it, but that's a big might.  Careless Jewel, since she broke her maiden, is undefeated and seems to just be improving every race.  She won her last race easily with only a tap on her shoulder to keep her head in the race.  I really think she will be the one to upset the Ladies Classic, even if Zenyatta runs it.  

Connie and Michael for the Juvenile Fillies.  No other filly except Hot Dixie Chick has a higher beyer than her

After Rainbow View's last win, O'Brien hinted that he was pointing for the Ladies.

I am surprised that Summer Bird is cross-entered in the Classic and Turf.  Does this mean his connections are having second thoughts about running on the Pro Ride?

In the contest can you bet the same horse to win and place?

remember i told you this---colonel john. he's been pointed to this race all year.

If Zenyatta goes to the Classic I will be picking her to win.  Summer Bird and Einstein close second and third. (:

Sorry.  I had O"Brien on the brain.  Gosden hinted at it

I'm glad to see the Euros in the Classic and Careless Jewel will be getting so much play [if this board is any indication].  That should make for some nice horses going off at odds we'll never see again.  

Look at last year's pps.  If something went wrong with Curlin, the US only had one other shot at winning the Classic and he wasn't that great.  So it makes sense the Euros won, we had one serious contender in the field.  This year's field isn't the strongest, but it's definitely deeper than 2008.  

Careless Jewel is basically a juvenile in experience, race record and on-track behavior.  (Actually several of the female juveniles are more battle tested and professional.)  I just can't see even a fast juvenile taking down an older horse field.  

I don't know if she will win, my crystal ball didn't arrive in the mail like some other folks, but I do not believe the Moss connection would enter Zenyatta in the Breeder's Cup Classic unless they thought she had a legitimate chance. It depends upon the pace of the race and whether or not she can stay out of traffic trouble. I don't see the 1 1/4 miles being an obstacle. The Euro's are always dangerous(obviously). They got a taste of victory last year and I am sure they want more. I do not particularily like Rip Van Winkle. He has run some hard races this year and no one really knows how he or any of the others will ship.

I like Gio Ponti in the Classic or Summer Bird, Zenyatta gets 3rd. Quality Road in my mind will not get the 1 /1/4 mile. He didn't get it in the Travers or the JCGC. He is lightly raced this year compared to many of the others.

Good fortune to all, it should be a great couple of days.

P.S. I can't believe I am agreeing with Draynay, but I also think Gayego wins the Sprint. He and Goldikova are my best picks.

RECHELLE

I will make it a point to remind how really wrong you were when Zenyatta wins next week.

JASON:

Hope you have a great time @ Breeders'. BTW good luck at trying to beat Zenyatta. Don't think it's gonna happen.

STEVE S

I should have figured that someone like yourself would proclaim Bob Baffert to be the "best trainer on the west coast".

Rechelle,

I wouldn't be too worried about Zenyatta getting stopped and having to get going again. In the Milady, Gomez tried to pin her down on the fence with Life Is Sweet and she hesistated, which everyone thought might take her awhile to get going....she was in gear in no time and still won with something left. I hope they put her in the Classic. Its the right move. Maybe not financially, but the Mosses have plenty of cash. She's got nothing else to prove against the girls. If she loses, big deal. She'll still win an Eclipse for Older Female. As if that's not enough these days...

If Girolamo goes in the Classic, he'll remind me of being this years' Japanese horse that ran last in the Classic last year. Too much too soon, but very talented.

Quality Road....who knows. At least his sire sired the Classic winner last year. He's got that going for him with regard to the Pro-Ride.

There is LOADS of speed in the Dirt Mile. I'll be sure to take a closer in there. I'd hate to take Mastercraftsman b/c he'd be the fave, but it should set up really nicely for him. The rest of the closers I don't really get a funny feeling for them.

Not alot of speed signed on in the F&M Turf. Pure Clan is interesting in that one.

Lookin At Lucky is gonna be tough in the Juvenile. Gomez has to time it right and hold him back long enough.

Tough Juvenile Fillies field. Blind Luck has done nothing wrong out west. Negligee was caught wide at Keeneland.

Not a very strong Euro Contingent in the Juvie Filly Turf.Need to check out the form for that race.

Need the form for this one too, although Buzzword is Buzzin' in Europe.

Ladies Classic - If Zenyatta isn't in here, Careless Jewel will be really tough. I wonder if Rainbow View will show more speed on the main track.

Lots of speed in da Mile. Goldikova will have her unoffical rabbit in Gladiatorus, who wired the Dubai Duty Free in March. He really loves the turns and will be tough in here. But he'll get pushed up front.

Don't really care about the Marathon. Will be an interesting bet though.

Ventura & Informed Decision all day in the F&M Sprint

If Fatal Bullet is drawn inside, he'll cook Zensational. If its the other way around, Zensational is gone.

I question Conduit's conditioning going in. Spanish Moon has speed and should be in touch with Presious Passion. If PP is ever going to wire a field for huge dough, this would be it.

LOVE Diamondrella in the Turf Sprint. The absolute class of the field and she'll get a hot pace to chase.

Put Z in the classic its good for the sport and horse racing. We all want to see her run against the best and prove she is a champion. If she wins it still makes an interesting HOY debate which we have heard a million times already. Either way CJ didnt win it last year why in the hell would he win this year? lol! Who ever said CJ has a chance is fooling themselves. Summmer bird ...pass! Remember QR is a fresh horse with a couple of races under his belt now and is sitting on monster race. Summer bird and QR went neck and neck and just feel that QR will like a dry track! Hopefully you guys can give some insight on the training next week.

I won't believe Zenyatta will run in the Classic until I see her in the starting gate. It seems like the owners/trainer are trying to say all the right things and appease the fans, but I highly doubt they will go through with it. They will make something up to get her in the Distaff, and that is a shame. If they truly believed in this horse, and they were willing to take a chance, they would have already said she would be running in the Classic and they believe she will win. They should be showing their confidence in her and take their shot, rather than side step the question and wait to the last minute. Will be interesting, but they also said between the Clement Hirsch at Del Mar and the Ladies Secret at Santa Anita that they were thinking "outside the box" for a race in between those two, and we say to that amounted to, no more than a 2 month vacation and no race. I will believe it when I see it.

    Well, All I will say is that the only two locks(IMO) are the Zen Masters...

Zenyatta WILL win the Classic...

Zensational WILL win the Sprint...

Jason, Zenyatta is my pick, Your call ?

I think the horse to beat in the classic is Mastercraftsman, I hope

ZAN run in the classic this will us more odds on other hosres.

They said Conduit had a minor bout of colic.  They said it didn't affect his training but....

Just cheer against Zenyatta to make Rachel look better, good plan.  And it is not 100% that Zenyatta is done after this race...like the Okie St coach said...GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT

I am somewhat dissappointed in some of the entries this year.  Some good horses have been sidelined this year and some very close to the BC races.  I also can not blame the trainers and owners of other good horses for not wanting to run them on synthetics.  Frankly, two  years at the same track is a mistake.  I wouldn't want to run my horse on synthetics either. I am problably going to irritate some folks out there but there seems to be a little bias toward the California tracks especially on HRTV these days.  Since I am not from a racing state I feel that I can look at this objectively.  The best except for a few of course won't be running this year.

Jason, Cliff looks like he brought his A++ stuff tonight. Hope it quits raining.

I am glad for the extra day because there are a lot of cross entries and a fair amount of posturing. i think too much gets made about moving horses "up" in races to prove how good they are. All of the races are championships and represent different types of races. I think Dar ReMi should race in F&MTurf at a middle distance where she is great bet to take home 1.2 million. Zenyatta should race in the Distaff.

Conduit looks a lot like High Chapparel coming off the Arc. He may run his best race of the year.

Hmmm....it will take guts to put Zenyatta in the classic. She will be up against it if she does. I agree she should be in the top three if she does run, but winning I don't know. I think she wins the distaff. I would love to see her run in the classic whether she wins or not.

Jason ya think Zenyatta woould be 2nd, 3rd, 4th choice in Classic? I think if she goes, she'll be favored to win the thing, it's a kickers track, I'll play Richards Kid as I've always tried to beat her--speaking of Richard, the dirt mile, or rubber band mile, is chock full of tough guys--I love "Man-Oh-Mandella", and his Crown Of Thorns! Flying under the radar but this guy has a chance--especially if Girolamo opts for the Classic....

JORDAN S

You don't have to believe that Zenyatta is running in the classic. I bet she will!

Goldikova, Blind Luck, Dar Re Mi are singles for me--leaning towards McPeek in juvi colts--Classic is a big spread race but make no mistake about it, Zenyatta is the one to beat....think Gayego is the bomb and taking a long look at Crown Of Thorns in rubber band mile...it's Ventura's Highway, will play against Magical Fantasy but love the Wygod Filly Life Is Sweet to get the $$ in the Ladies...

The Breeders Cup is hoping:....1) Big Z goes SATURDAY....2) Lethal Heat goes only once....

Saturdal looks like filly day, too! Goldikova and Dar Re Mi look way tough on turf, Big Z...and Gotta Have Her/Lethal Heat, both specialists at the downhill turf sprint distance--Sahadi knows how to win in BC Sprint races--Elmhurst/the great Lit De Justice...

These Zen guys must have holdings in a hedge fund -maybe, maybe not lets see who scratches out of the real Classic.Well at least she isn't taking a vacation during the biggest overall racing day in horse racing and the toughest comp.Best should compete against the best and owners should show they believe in their horse and run in the biggest BC race.Hey Jesse if Ala or Florida goes unbeaten and wins the SEC , I guess you'd say the winner should stay home and call it a season declare themselves champs instead of going to the BCS championship game, that's your logic how phony, your horse is very good up to 9 furlongs but against what she would have faced and the distance in the Classic you folded right up with the track excuse but really can't get over Curlin being a also ran in last year's classic on this track and knew she  couldn't win against a strong field at the classic distance.Mike Rev your a astute horseman and  know that she couldn't win at a mile and a quarter and her ducking any of those distance races proved it along with her barley hanging on to beat Macho[no hall of famer]at 9 furlongs. Still don't think Zen will take on the boys they are afraid the myth will be shattered.

If Quality Road, Interactif and Careless Jewel don't represent "money for jam" in their respective races then Ranagulzion as a handicapper is "toast".

The Fillies & Mares Turf looks like a very knotty affair in which I strongly fancy Pure Clan to prevail this year over Maram and Magical Fantacy.

Conduit looks like the proverbial "soup" on the Breeder's Cup menu, however the well bred and classy veteran (now healthy and fit) Red Rocks, could upset all calculations and be the one (instead of Conduit) to capture a 2nd BC Turf title.  

I fancy Mastercraftsman in the "Dirt" Mile (good move by trainer Aidian O'Brien), Midshipman is the obvious danger .

The Juvenile is setting up to be a cracker with the hot 2010 Kentucky Derby prospects Eskendereya, D'Funnybone and Looking At Lucky in a brawl.  If only this race was on Dirt.  LAL has home-field advantage and D'F is the controling speed BUT I'm going to follow my gut instincts and jump on the "Esken" waggon RIGHT HERE RIGHT NOW.  Hopefully it will be a winning ride all the way through the 1st Saturday in May and if Todd Pletcher plans his races well we could have a Triple Crown winner next year (what a way for him to break his Derby "duck").  Ah well ...let's pause ...too early for the Triple crown trail.

Other firm fancies are Fatal Bullet over Gayego and Capt. Candiman Can, as Baffert's "Beast" gets beat in the Sprint.  I also like Informed Decision to get a jump on Ventura and repel her late rattle but Sarah Louise could be problematic for both in the F&M sprint.

Zenyatta's appearance anywhere thickens the plot and she will be a tough nut to crack in either the Classic or the Distaff but having not faced the brand of sustained pace that she is about to meet whichever way she goes, I suspect that she falters at the winning post for the first time in her illustrious career.  The "Queen" died, long live the "queen".  

Two horse parlay tom at The Great Race place:...Race 6 #1 Universal Peace (2-1)--Mr Drysdale, blinks off, top jock Rosario, it's the $$$ run!!....Race7 #6 Unworldly Heat (8-1) has run her best races over the Pro Ride/can stalk from outside, off what looks like a torrid pace!

I am leaning toward running the 200 meters in the 2012 Olympics.

Don't forget folks, The Pro-Ride surface is what Zenyatta is Top-Class on, that is her surface unlike SB, MTB, and some of the others, them Euro's are going to be what she has to watch out for. I think that the big filly Zen can handle it, I think everyone will witness a true champion then in action.

Dray- Just to let you know here's Abrams quote in the Racing Form today:

"If Zenyatta goes on Friday, I'd run Saturday," Abrams said. "I'm hoping Zenyatta runs Saturday. We can't beat Zenyatta. There's no BS about it. We'd be running for second if she runs Friday. If I believe my best chance is to run Saturday, I'll go Saturday."  He does not think he can beat her- just for the record.

Shirreffs said if Zenyatta trains well Saturday and next week they'll "definitely lean" to the Classic.  I'm not sure what that means but it sounds suspiciously like a definite maybe.  I give my kids a definite maybe when I want them to stop nagging me, then later I come up with a really good excuse to say no.      

Anyway I hope she goes in the Classic.  It will make it a lot more interesting.      

Jason,

    Congrats to your Phillies!  I feel confident saying that up 6-0, Jeter just got a hit, Big Deal, Pedro tomorrow, 2-0 Phillies going home, That would be nice...

 The Classic looks like a great field this year and could be an incredibly good poster for racing if Zenyatta does go there. This would be a great publicity angle to generate more public interest in racing.

I'm not sure Zenyatta can win for fun against a field like this, but she is one incredible race horse that I give a strong chance.

One horse I will be playing in the Classic is the four year old, Twice Over, trained by the great trainer, Henry Cecil. This is a horse that can run with the best of them, and I believe to be a better horse than he was last year at three. Henry has him ready, and wouldn't be here if he didn't think he could win.

Take a look at him at three against Ravens Pass and Henrythenavigator on Jun 17'08:

http://www.henrycecil.com/

go to horses in training and then click Twice Over to get access to some videos of some of his races.

Many comments about Zenyatta's chances remind me of what the many were saying about Zarkava's chances in the Arc last year.  The field will be too big, she'll drop back too far, she hasn't been pushed all year.  All Zarkava did was weave her way through a big field and win as easy as she won all her other races.  When they asked Soumillon about if he worries when she brakes badly and lags behind in the Vermeille when she spotted the field 4 lengths at the start, he said "When you are on a filly like Zarkava, you never worry."  I imagine that's how Mike Smith feels.  Fillies and mares can win against top class male competition at 10 furlongs and up.  They do it in Eurtope all the time.  And they can do it from coming from far out of it.  They don't have to be front runners or stalkers if they are good enough.  Many of you don't believe Zenyatta can and many do.  Hopefully she will run in the Classic and we will find out.

Why are the post times not posted on this site?  What time do the races start on Friday?  Thanks in advance.

Carolyn, Summer Bird has trained on synthetic before and has trained VERY well over it.  I don't think the surface will be a factor for him like it would be for others.  I think he gets the surface and gets in the money.  I'd watch out for Rip Van Winkle and any other euro in that race.  They slammed us last year and will most likely do it again.  

I agree with the poster who said the BC races shouldn't be at the same track two years in a row, ESPECIALLY on at a track with a synthetic surface.  Until the majority of tracks convert (IF that ever happens, which I doubt), any of the dirt races are biased towards turf runners.  I'd love to see them bring it back to Lone Star Park (but that might be since I live in DFW).  

I still think that Zenyatta will scratch from the Classic, since it is a full field.  She does her best racing in small fields and a full field will get her caught in traffic and get her beat.  But I still maintain that I don't think she wins either race.  The fact that we're 11 months into the season and she's run 4 races makes me believe she isn't the horse she was a year ago.  Last year, I'd never have beat against her in any race.  This year, I'll beat against her cheerfully.  Sorry Mike Relva, but that is my opinion.  

A horse that is training well & surprising me is Mine That Bird.  5 furlongs in .58 and the fastest work at that distance.  He won't win the Classic, but I do hope he runs well in it.  His owners were foolish in gelding him and if at his retirement he doesn't go to Old Friends or Kentucky Horse Park, I worry about his future and his safety.

If they want the HOY title for Zenyatta then they have to run her in the Classic. I say watch the closers and my guess is Summer Bird and Zenyatta at the wire. So many of the people on this blog are letting their blinders get in the way in regards to Zenyatta. I've also noticed that Summer Bird seems to be lightly regarded as everyone waits with baited breath for Quality Road to finally become the superhorse that they've always wanted him to be.If he does then good for his backers but I hope that if Zenyatta wins the Classic or at least is in the top 3 finishers that many on this blog should finally give this great mare her due.

Thats great news about Zenyatta.  It makes sense to try males now after the long layoff and then the slow campaign to get this big horse into top form.  I truly believe she will fire her best shot and that only Gio Ponti or Rip Van Winkle have any shot at all to run with her...although Regal Ransom scares me just a little bit.  

I love all the love for Gayego because I am big time against him in the Sprint.  I think he wants more distance and he's not facing Delta Storm and Crown of Thorns in the Sprint, he'll have to run from 20 lengths out not 10 if he breaks like that again.  I think Goldikova and Zensational are the locks of the saturday card.  I think Kip Devillelast year was better than any competitor Goldikova will face this year and she may even be better now.  Look it up there was some talk of her taking a shot in the Classic even, before her last race...  I don't think Mastercraftsman or Rip Van Winkle want any of Goldikova at a mile on firm turf, so that is why they are pointing elsewhere.  

I also think Regal Ransom and Quality Road will take Rip Van Winkle out of his game in the classic, and this 3 year old turf miler had better love the surface and everything else to compete with Zenyatta on her home court.

Run, Ted, run!!

If Zenyatta does go in the Classic, it will save her the embarrassment of getting smoked by Careless Jewel (aka "the poor man's Rachel Alexandra") in the Distaff.

If she loses the BC classic, it won't be as devastating a loss. And second, third, fourth, etc money is a lot more there. They have no choice.

I really like the way Careless Jewel and Summer Bird are training on the Oak Tree rubber, by the way.

Speaking of Summer Bird, Trainer Tim Ice is hoping a victory in the Classic pushes Summer Bird past Rachel Alexandra.

"My opinion is that each sport has its championship game, and if you don't compete in it, you shouldn't win the championship," Ice said. "This is the stage you want to be on. My horse is improving, and he's much better than he was going into the Belmont and the Haskell."

Tim, Tim please. Rachel smoked Summer Bird by about 7 lengths in between his wonderful Belmont and Travers performances. And you don't think she'll be getting better as she matures too?

There is no way any horse in the country will get HOTY over her.

You want to get a HOTY title? Then try to beat her next year. I know who I'll be betting on.

I think it's hysterical how some folks on this blog think they're brilliant, when in fact, their comments show just how little understanding they have of the sport and its history.

Anyone claiming Jess Jackson was gutless in dodging tough competition (horses Rachel already beat handily) by running against older males in a race won by countless Horses of the Year should study up on their history. You sound foolish...really.

Calling Mr. Jackson gutless is babyish and shows a lack of knowledge of the history of horse racing. It shows absolutely no understanding or appreciation for the guts it took to take that risk. She is a 3-year old filly!!!!!

Obviously she will be more physically mature at age four, and those of us who appreciate greatness will be in for quite a treat. Then when she wins multiple times at 1 1/4M, people will come up with some other reason why she is not great in their eyes...but hey, you can't please everyone, especially when they have some deep-rooted and inexplicable hatred for her owner.

Why do people think the large field will affect Zenyatta?  With her running style of dropping back behind the field, she'll avoid the traffic and just sweep around the outside like she always does.  

Saratoga

I figure that you are a pretty knowledgeable and when it comes to horse racing, you know your stuff.  That said, I can’t figure out why you can’t you figure out why Rachel defeated Summer Bird in the Haskell, but was afraid to face him in the Travers…..Why did she take the easy way out and duck him again in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and is now riding the LAME EXCUSE HIGHWAY and ducking him again, as well as Zenyatta and other REAL GRADE-ONE horses in the Classic.  I know she had a tough campaign, but don't forget it would have been two months since her last race when the BC rolls around.  She would have had ample time to be rested.

And while you’re at it…..if Careless Jewel is the real deal, then why isn’t she going in the Classic also?  After all, she trounced a TOP FIELD in the Cotillion didn’t she, and of course there must be some reason why she only received a 98 Beyer in that race.

Rachel was great and Careless Jewel has proven so far to be pretty good, but don’t knock the others.  It seems to me that they have accomplished a lot.

Saratoga AJ,your a biased RA fan without acknowledging some true facts,Ice is right, she ducked any race 10 furlongs or more . The fact she isn't here to compete against the best horses she will have ever faced isn't what a I would call a HOY candidate.Phony excuse not to race her by Jesse because his ego still can't get over the way Curlin got crushed last year and finished as a also ran.She's had 3 tough races max and should be a fresh horse, has won on syn.in her career so what  real reason would there be to send her on vacation and avoid the biggest race outside of the Derby with the strongest field other then Scared! she couldn't beat the toughest comp.At least I will give Zen credit if she runs in the Real Classic but have my  doubt she will.Your RA owner and trainer avoided the Travers[better field then eddie Haskell]Jockey and of course the Belmont all at least a mile and a quarter with stronger fields so if she wins HOY its by popularity not beating  the best at the Classic distance.I say that's phony and the owner wants to protect her myth of being so great without testing her against the best comp.If Zen wins the real Classic or puts in a strong race then I'd say she is more deserving of HOY consideration then a phony no show who's on vacation.There will be many closers in the race besides Zen.Mike R and die hard RA fans you know that's the truth, 9 furlong specialist!

Saratoga AJ--Saratoga is a strong name--Saratoga is the proving ground for thoroughbreds...1 1/4 is the proving ground for championship races--NOT 1 1/8...I know, let's give HOY to the horse that beat Rachel in her maiden race! No, she beat Summer Bird one time then took the Fall off, hoping her 8 for 8 record would stand up over a horse who won three of the top five races at 1 1/4...very UN-Saratoga of you to side against the dominant stamina-laden horse! What, do you sleep with a framed picture of Rachel Alexandra under your pillow??!! Just kidding, sorta...

If Big Z wins, going away, against the best field of older horses on the planet.....THAT will be in recent memory, vs the memory of  Rachel, all-out to hold on vs a field that may have NO horses that would even make the Classic...that very well might sway some of the voters for HOY...

Why is it necessary to tear down a horse's accomplishments?  What is it about Rachel or Zenyatta, for that matter, that makes some people so negative and nasty about the connections and the horses themselves?  Each horse has her fans and the fans of one must tear down the other in ludicrous comparisons and arguments.  They have to be torn down and made to look like they are nothing but old nags in order to make fans feel better?  Those two horses are the most exciting things to happen to racing in a long while and BOTH of those horses are true champions because they are what makes this sport great.  They are competitors to the bone and they do what they are bred to do.  They have no hatred or nastiness in them, only purity of soul and purpose and heart.  They are beautiful and flawless in form and have no ulterior motives.  They do what they do best and that is to run.  When you watch either of them run you are witnessing greatness and beauty and purity and why can't that be appreciated?  Why must a horse be trashed to build up the other?

Ruffian 316,  Rags  was a 3 yr old filly who beat Hoy Curlin ata mile and a half, I think that's better then anything RA has done and she beat a stronger field then anything RA has ever faced.Yea next year why not this year comp to tough and the myth would be shattered unless she ran in the dirt mile , Classic distance forget it they'll pull the same thing next year avoid comp and distance races.Jesse sure is doing a lot for the Sport of Kings by putting his queen on vacation instead of competing agaist the best horses. What a PHONY!

    Like I have said from day one, I thought Zenyatta would go in the BCC and win, I still don't think it will be enough to garnish the HOY award, It will sway a few votes along with voters punishing Mr. Jackson for skipping the BC, But how can one argue Rachel's campaign compared to Zenyatta's this year?  It makes no sense to me that there are people that honestly think Zenyatta's year is/was better then Rachel's?  Rachel's accomplishment's this year:

Rachel has beaten...

A SA Derby winner

A Ky Derby winner...

Two Belmont winners...

A Stephen Foster winner...

A Travers winner...

A Runner up in Dubai Classic...

A JC Gold Cup winner...

A Whitney winner...

Is that enough?

Kentucky Oaks---win by a record margin of 20 1/4 lengths in a time of 1:48.87, just 0.33 seconds off Bird Town's stakes record...

Mother Goose---cruised to a 19 1/4 length victory over Malibu Prayer in a new stakes record time of 1:46.33, just 0.93 seconds off Secretariat's track record, the margin of victory was also a stakes record, eclipsing the previous record of 13 1/2 lengths set by Ruffian in 1975....

She is 8 for 8 this year, She beat the fillies by 20 lengths in the Kentucky Oaks, 19 lengths in the Mother Goose Stakes, She won the Preakness and the Haskell, and beat older males in the Woodward, She raced on eight different tracks, five grade one wins...

What else could she of done?  Breeder's, Yes, But I have no problem with her taking the rest of the year off after the Woodward, That is a long, tough year...

With all that said, I still think if Zenyatta were ever to face Rachel, That Zenyatta would win, BUT, That has nothing to do with the HOY voting...

Did anyone see Biofuel in the Mazarine at Woodbine?  Juvenile Fillies.

And Predict, I'm glad you brought up Twice Over.  He's been consistently top class but he'll have to get past the Birds and Einstein.  (Notice Jason: Zenyatta nowhere)

Ventura, Dar Re Mi (although Rainbow View appears to be coming into form again), Careless Jewel, Fleeting Spirit....

I'm gonna be up late on Wednesday DECIDING!

Phantom,

Your reasoning is as good as your grammar.

Jason,

You are in for a treat when you get here Sunday.  The weather is great right now!  It has been in the low 70'2 during the day, clear and sunny.  The mornings are a bit cold between 45 and 55.  If I can make it, I hope to go a couple of mornings to Clocker's Corner and watch the workouts.  It's the best time of day and watching the sunrise at SA with gorgeous animals running on the track is pure heaven!

I wonder how Careless Jewel will handle all the hoopla on Breeder's Cup Day.  She's not well behaved or focused as it is in her races.  It seems that the crowd and noise and general atmosphere might be upsetting to her?  And she's not running against Bon Jovi Girl here.

I thought we were discussing the horses that will be actually running at the BC. Rachel had a wonderful year , she has packed it in already, more times to discuss that after the BC.

We have the makings of  some very good races for The BC. Most of the races appear to be wide open to me, (Unless  Zenyatta goes to the LC, that is). I think the least we can do is discuss the races. There are so many angles , and unknowns to discuss. I would have thought we would all be relishing the handicapping challenges here.

There is allot of time to discuss HOY on the Nov 8th.

If Zenyatta runs in the Classic, I will be shocked if she is not the favorite, which is great for all us handicappers who do not expect her to win.

Jason,

I just heard that the BC will have a special wager on which jockey will win the most BC Races. Who do you think is sittin' pretty for a big two days at the BC? I'd figure Garrett Gomez will be the 2nd choice behind "the field".

Mine That Bird had a grueling Triple Crown, then had that Belmont Bounce race in West Virginia, truly a dull race! Then he was forcen to skip The Travers,and went back home to legions of loyal fans, fans who will be there year after year after year, then the van ride through the endless desert, to face off with some real tough guys in The Goodwood, guys who will be contenders for it all in The Classic...he was outclassed--THAT day--has really put in good work of late--there will be TWO horses at the back of the pack on Saturday: one giant black mare with a white shadow roll, one tiny brown gelding--two horses who've made a difference, trained by guys who know how to get a horse ready for a big race!

Monica V--Clocker's Corner! In the 70's, my brother and I would drive up in my 66 bug, park across the street and walk in (to save the buck), and hover around the Clockers Corner! and use the hidden pathway to the saddling paddock/walking ring--The Clockers Corner was the only place that was free back then, you had to pay for a seat--we watched Bid from there, beat Paster, Relaunch, Valdez in his record Strub--some guy yells "attaboy, Eddie" when he guns Relaunch! saw many a big race from there, catching the start of The Big Cap/watching them lean, or try to lean into the turns of that gruelling race, I believe Elliot Burch called it "toughest race to win"...I hope ya do get out there, and enjoy yourself at the Clockers Corner!

Greg J

Good analogy of Rachel’s year and putting it into perspective with Zenyatta’s.....It is often difficult to support one without criticizing the other and the way you put it was excellent.....That being said, I like them both though I must admit that I am deeply in love with Zen….I will probably be just as deeply in love with Rachel next year.

Lazmanick:

First of all, you surprise me with your comments. You're more knowledgeable than that. Do you really think Jackson was ducking Summer Bird and the 10 furlong distance of the JCGC? Do you really think if the Haskell was another furlong she wouldn't have beaten Summer Bird? Watch the race again...SHE WAS PULLING AWAY FROM HIM DOWN THE STRETCH. They could have gone around Monmouth's oval again, it wouldn't have mattered.

www.youtube.com/watch

She already showed the NYC crowd what she could do when she smoked some fillies at Belmont by 20 in the Mother Goose. Why run there again? Jackson wanted to showcase  her at least one race at the greatest racing meet in the world, historic Saratoga. After all, she spent the almost entire Summer here..(she didn't leave here until a couple of weeks ago). He had his choice between the Travers and Woodward , and since she already humbled the 3 yr old colts twice in G-1's, he wanted to do what has not been done since the 40's...beat OLDER handicap colts with a THREE YEAR OLD FILLY in a G-1 on dirt. And be the first filly of any age, no less a 3 yr old, to win the historic Woodward. It turned out to be the race of the year. And keep in mind she won despite being a fairly tired young girl after a tough campaign. She was not 100% that day, but won it on class and heart. It was the wildest and loudest Saratoga crowd I was ever part of.

The Phantom: First of all, Ice never said anything about 10 furlongs. Just that he wants HOTY if he won the Classic but that will never happen.

And any of you people who still believe she can't win at 10 furlongs don't know what you are talking about. She won at 9 1/2 after only 2 weeks rest breaking from the up to that point winless 13 post in the Preakness. IT'S ALL IN THE PACE. And she can rate if she has to. Come back to these blogs when she proves you so very wrong next season.

Her Beyers are the best of the year. Five Beyers in the top 7 numbers awarded this year for over one mile on dirt, as well as the best of the year (116).

Turf writers are calling her the best filly since the immortal Ruffian. So I guess you know more than they do too, right Phantom?  

Along with Ruffian, she's the best I've seen in my almost 50 years at the track. Her campaign last year was one of the best ever by any horse in a long time. Zenyatta's campaign was total nonsense.

And I wouldn't run her on that crap surface at Santa Anita either. She'll get her chance at the BC Classic next year on a real race track...Churchill. Come back to these blogs then, Phantom.

By the way, TWELVE fatalities at Del Mar on the fake stuff this past Summer. One at Saratoga. Yeah, that synthetic stuff is real safe. :)

PS: Jason...help me put this "she can't go 10 furlongs " nonsense to rest!!

Saratoga AJ remember Careless Jewel is nothing more then a target for Music Note to run at.  Saratoga don't let Lazmannick get under your skin he posts complete nonsense at times just get under your skin.  Anyone claiming Rachel was ducking anything or anyone has limited knowledge to begin with so just smile and move along.

MZ

I caught Biofuel's Mazarine.....She was at good odds and the way in which she won, she might very well be a sleeper in the Juv. Fillies and should be considered in all exotics.

Do some of you think that the rules for HOY include that you must have run 1 and 1/4. It isn't a rule or even a suggestion and there have been horses through the ages to win HOY without running 1 and 1/4.  

I mean really, that distance proves nothing about who is the best horse.  Would it have mattered if the Oaks was another 1/8th?  What, instead of 20 lengths, RA would have won by 30 and then would have won at a 1 and 1/4.  Would that matter to the naysayers?  Not one bit, because then there would be the excuse of field quality. The distance in and of itself is meaningless.  Stop clogging up the debate with meaningless, useless, filler.

HOY should be about quality of competition beaten compared to others, period.  The Haskell was a route race regardless of not being 1 and 1/4. In fact, American horse racing all throughout the land, is 50-1 9 furlong races carded compared to 1 and 1/4.  If it was such a crucial variable ( to win at 1 and 1/4 for HOY, then why are the great majority of our ROUTE races ran and 1 and 1/8th or 1/16th?  There is no excuses for Summer Bird or any of the others, as it is just as easy for one to say that Summer Bird couldn't win at any route race against quality competition, at a ROUTE of ground less than 1 and 1/4.  Therefore, Summer Bird is unworthy of HOY because he isn't deverse enough and can ONLY win against top quality at a ROUTE of 1 and 1/4 or more.  Get over your PERSONAL preferences ( must win at 1 and 1/4 for HOY )and look at the WHOLE picture.

RA beat everyone that showed up and she did it at the highest level we have in American racing.  A mile and 1/4 be damned!

Zenyatta running in The Classic is a huge jolt for Horse racing! Tough times...deep closer....filly v males at their distance....ad to the face that this horse has pecular traits that are her own, like the Post Parade Slow-Strut, and just to look at her, this is a real jolt for racing!

ABZ

Don’t you ever get tired of slagging Zenyatta in you cutesy little way?  If you like Rachel so much, fine, and if you keep insisting that she is one of the best, maybe even the best filly all time, that just goes to show us that maybe you don’t know as much as you would like everyone to think…..All I can say is that at least Zenyatta is considering and will probably go in the Classic, so why do you have to make your usual cute little derogatory comment, this time about whether she will be favoured or not?…..Run to the mutual windows and other than MTB and SB, try and bet a horse in the Classic that Rachel has faced this year.  What’s that…..you can’t find one…..Enough said.

MTB trained by a guy that knows how to get a horse ready for a big race? Huh? You are kidding right? Are you talking about the trainer that wanted MTB to workout in a minute and came back almost 10 lengths faster in 58 seconds? The trainer who has won just 6 races all year? That trainer? Your depending on him to get MTB ready? Good luck with that.  Bet him big let me know how it works out for you.  IMHO the horse does not belong in the race and should be rested until next year.  Getting him whipped AGAIN does nothing good for the horse.

In the small world compartment, just wanted to point out to the poster that mentioned the "Japanese horse" last year:  I assume you were talking about Casino Drive, who received a lot of press for being out of the same mare that produced Jazil and Rags to Riches (both Belmont winners).  Casino Drive has had a few pretty good races, but inconsistent.  In the Marathon this year, yet another Better Than Honour foal has surfaced, by Giant's Causeway, his name is Man of Iron.

Careless Jewel may be a freak, but given her temperment at this stage of her development, I can't help but wonder how the crowd/atmosphere at the BCC is going to go down. . . .

I really do think Pro Ride horses have an edge--a BIG one! When I see a horse take to the Pro Ride I take note--like when Blind Spot kicked in at the 1/8 pole in The Oak Leaf--THAT horse moved right to the top of my list! Zenyatta traind at Holly--when she comes over and inhales them in The Ladys secret--I take note! Gayego, steadying at the start, blowing right by, over the Pro Ride--first time on it, I take note! When Chip preps his Mine That Bird on Pro Ride, i take note, THAT'S a guy who wants the prize! I think US will hang a big donut on Merry Old England in The Classic--Mine That Bird, Zenyatta, Richards Kid, Colonel John, Gio Ponti, Einstein, Summer Bird--will hold sway--RIP,RIP!

Even with the seemingly lack of pace, I wouldn't bet Quality Road with YOUR $$$! He's the one horse you KNOW prefers shorter!--Summer Bird beat him and so did Johnny V!!! He ran lights out in JC Gold, no doubt Quality Road is a real nice colt--but there are some 1 1/4 specialists in there, and, like I said, 1 1/4 is NOT his best distance...

Lazmanick:

Bullsbay!

And the rest are from Europe, are based and raced on the west coast rubber, or raced mainly on grass.

Jason:

You're right. This is BC time. But doesn't it seem that no topic gets people riled up more than RA vs. Zen? :)

OK on to the BC...

Personally, I like the JCGC exacta in the BC Classic right now. But still have a lot of handicapping to do. And we need to know the PP's of course. And damn that Pro-ride rubber! LOL

Jason, I called David Letterman and got the top 10 list.  Top 10 reasons Zenyatta will not go in the Classic.

10. Boys are mean to her

9. Saturday is girls night out

8. 1 1/4 miles

7. Quality Road

6. Summer Bird

5. Gio Ponti

4. She doesn't need the money

3. Doesn't want to trip on MTB

2. USC vs Oregon will be on!

And now the number 1 reason why Zenyatta will not run in the Classic.  

SHE WOULD LOSE !

Quality Road's connections have already left the door open for him to skip the Classic.....his best chane to win is obviously the Mile.

Jason- I agree.  I'm trying to stay away from that.  Let's just concentrate on who is here and running.

    Quality Road is a nice colt, But, Potential doesn't count for anything at this point, Too late with this field, He has no shot in the classic...

As a European, I'm struggling to get to get to grips with the Sprint. Can somebody explain how Zensational can possibly start as favourite for this race? The horse pulls his jockey's arms off and displays an inability to relax in his races. Front-runners have a very poor record on Pro-Ride, anyway. Surely he will be strongly opposed on the day.

Dray yeah, maybe that WAS a stretch, but he's a gelding, running for 5 mil, at his favorite distance--they PREPPED him off the van in The Goodwood, he's FRESH! He loves the track, I mean if you can make a case for Quality Road to somehow produce the stamina he hasn't been able to come up with, and the JC Gold was set up for him, he couldn't shake free when he got to the lead and that's 98% likely cuz he hasn't the stamina--so if you can reason Quality Road's a 1 1/4 horse then I can reason Chip Wooley can get a horse to win a big race at 1 1/4!

Kat- I agree with your assessment on Careless Jewel.  She has trouble focusing in her races anyway.  It would be a concern for me.

Draynay IMHO isn't really a term you qualify to use!!

         JUVENILE

I know no one will play Gallant Gent but this horse did run a decent time of 6 furlongs in 1:09:21 at DMR-a track that doesn't produce fast times.

This is the dream play for the small better that wants to bet litle to win something

I think mastercraft is the horse to beat in the classic , If zan run in the classic i think she be beaten.

Jason

I thought you said no more Zenyatta or Rachel bashing!!!!!

Saratoga

Bullsboy is going in THE MILE, NOT THE CLASSIC!!!

Draynay,

Steve Haskin's article today says Zenyatta's trainer John Sherreffs "said on a national teleconference that the first preference for Zenyatta is the $5-million Breeders’ Cup Classic as long as she works well Oct. 31 at Hollywood Park and appears to be peaking for the race."

He adds that "Mike Smith has had a large input in the discussions and has indicated several times he believes the Classic distance would not be a problem for her."

You should probably call and tell them you know more about Zenyatta's capabilities than they do.

Jayo, I’d be happy to. But your riposte leaves alot to be desired. It doesn’t deal with any of the concerns I’ve raised about Zensational’s running style on Pro-Ride, allied to the threat posed by fast finishers on the surface at the trip. It’s all about value. 11-4 or bigger, I’m a backer. 9-4 or shorter, I’m a layer. Seeing as this beast will start at around the 6-4 mark, I will probably take it on in a big way via lay bets and an outright bet on Gayego (who is available in Europe at 5-1, if anyone is interested). No LONG-TERM successful gambler ever deals in absolutes. Punters that reckon Zenyatta is a ‘certainty’ or ‘has no chance’ both have it wrong – albeit for different (yet, paradoxically the same reasons). Every horse has a chance in every race, no matter how big, or how small, and that’s what odds or meant to imply. I’m no expert on US racing, but in the kingdom of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

I don't think Zenyatta stands much of a chance although I would love to see her win.  I love Quality Road but think he's a toss.  I don't think he can get the distance without a perfect trip and he won't get it in a 12 horse field.  Einstein, Gio Ponti and Rip Van Winkle are the ones to watch on this ridiculous surface.  At this point in the game, Summer Bird has matured into the best, most-talented horse in the field.  I hope he handles the surface but my instinct says he won't.

Saratoga AJ, I agree, no one else but Rachel has run & won 8 stakes races this year, 5 of them GR I, setting records in time and winning margins, she won on 7 different tracks, on fast and muddy tracks, against her own sex, age group and older horses.

I also think Zen can win the Classic.

I like the wagering menu this year. The pik 4's can all be made with only BC races.  I always hated mixing in an allowance or lesser stakes into my pik 4's.  Here is the schedule and wagering menu:

2009 Breeders' Cup World Championships (All Pacific Times)

Friday, November 6 Race Post  Bet Types

Allowance 1 11:15 a.m. WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, DD, Pick 3, Pick 4

Allowance 2 11:49 a.m. WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, DD, Pick 3

Breeders' Cup Marathon 3 12:35 p.m. WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, DD, Pick 3, Pick 6, H2H

Breeders' Cup Juv. Fillies Turf 4 1:08 p.m. WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, DD, Pick 3

Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juv. Fillies 5 1:45 p.m. WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, DD, Pick 3, Pick 4

Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup FM Turf 6 2:23 p.m. WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, DD, Pick 3, Pick 4

Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup FM Sprint 7 3:02 p.m. WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, DD, Pick 3

Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic 8 3:45 p.m. WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, SP DD, SUPER HI 5

Las Palmas Stakes 9 4:25 p.m. WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER

Saturday, November 7 Race Post  Bet Types

Damascus Stakes 1 10:05 a.m. WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, DD, Pick 3

Breeders' Cup Juv. Turf 2 10:45 a.m. WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, DD, Pick 3, Pick 4

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint 3 11:23 a.m. WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, DD, Pick 3

Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint 4 12:10 p.m. WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, DD, Pick 3, Pick 6

Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile 5 12:49 p.m. WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, DD, Pick 3

TVG Breeders' Cup Mile 6 1:28 p.m. WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, DD, Pick 3, Pick 4

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile 7 2:12 p.m. WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, DD, Pick 3, Pick 4

Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Turf 8 2:57 p.m. WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, DD, Pick 3

Breeders' Cup Classic 9 3:45 p.m. WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, SUPER HI 5, DD

Oak Tree Derby 10 4:25 p.m. WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER

Dray I like SC Sat, Masoli has fumble fingers/and the kid is good...if he can overcome the crowd, and thats a big if---SC wins/the kid should get the Heisman as a true frosh....I said SHOULD...

da3hoss

Last time I looked the filly you raved about in your 2:03 post ISN'T RACING IN THE BC....You're right about you assessment of who will win the Classic.

Breeders cup day is a chance for horse bettors to recoup-no more silly talk of skipping it

there's money to be made-some systems should work

Is it just me, or does anyone else read Aera's comments with an accent? lol

Aera,

I have the same concern with Zensational. As i stated before, if he's drawn outside of Fatal Bullet, he'll be pulling hard to stay with that one through the first 800m. But if he's drawn inside, Fatal Bullet will back off and let him run. If he pulls without pressure, he should be tough to beat.

Hey Jason: considering all the  weird entries, do you think you could give a prize ribbon to whoever happens to pick the biggest longshot winner?  There's even an easy name for this: the "Arcangues Prize"

ZENYATTA: All you handicappers out there...as I posted before....the key here is when Zen starts her move. If she waits too long, she is toast and off the board. HOWEVER, if she starts it EARLIER we simply don't know what will happen. She could still finish off the board or take the whole damn thing! I believe that 1 and 1/4 will be more to her liking than 1 and 1/8. I KNOW THE NUMBERS DONT JUSTIFY HER BEING A LEGIT CONTENDER, but if she can sustain that finishing kick over a longer distance, she can certainly be a force to be reckoned with. REMEMBER WHERE YOU HEARD THIS FIRST should she do what I think she could be capable of. For any of us to say with certainly that a certain thing will happen by a certain horse in any particular race on any race track is silly. We can only give our best educated guess.

As much as I think Zenyatta, should she stay in the Classic (I still have my doubts that she will), COULD be a force, I will surely try some exotics with her not being in them as the value will be great. GOOD LUCK ALL!!!

Aera,

    A little eduacation on The Beast(Zensational), As a three year old, He has won 5 of six races, one second place finish,Won four in a row, The last three grade one races, I don't have access to his beyers right now, But, I believe he had a couple over 110(?). The scary part? He is still learning, We have yet to see his best, He is the real deal, A lock in the sprint, If there ever was one, He is it!  

I have no problem with Zensational but I'm leaning toward Capt Candyman Can

It's not synthetics that's killing off racing in Cali--it's the Cali Government--Notice the full fields/bigger purses at keeneland, on a synthetic track....Cali Racing's in trouble...

Jay Hovdey from DRF said something that is of high probability. Juddmonte, Coolmore & Godolphin can win up to 12 BC Races.

Breeders' Cup Marathon -- Mastery (Coolmore)

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf -- Lillie Langtry (Coolmore)

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint -- Ventura (Juddmonte)

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf -- Midday (Juddmonte)

Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic -- Music Note (Godolphin)

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf -- Viscount Nelson (Coolmore)

Breeders' Cup Mile -- Girolamo (Godolphin)

Breeders' Cup Juvenile -- Beethoven (Coolmore)

Breeders' Cup Mile -- Zacinto (Juddmonte)

Breeders' Cup Sprint -- Gayego (Godolphin)

Breeders' Cup Turf -- Spanish Moon (Juddmonte)

Breeders' Cup Classic -- Rip Van Winkle (Coolmore)

Wow............

The sprint is going to be a fun race for sure but I am very confident Gayego is your winner.  I will single him in my pick 3.  The pace should be hot setting up Gayego perfectly.  The key will be a 43 half.  If you see a 43 pop up on the screen Gayego will be your winner.

Man, I wish today was the BC. Sunny High 60's right now. Absolutely perfect!

I feel it is necessary to address the total nonsense that Quality Road can't get the 1 1/4 distance.  QR was injured as we all know and has not had great fortune in his last 2 trips at 1 1/4. Losing to Summer Bird by half a length in the mud doesn't mean he can't get the distance.  Quality Road will control the race and will have the lead at the top of the stretch. I am willing to bet he doesn't give it up on a dry fast track he has been longing for since Saratoga.  Jason I will make a small bet with you.  Gayego wins your next 3 blogs have to end with "Draynay is great."  Zen wins and I will end each post for a month with "Jason is all knowing." Deal?

Universal Place has no chance of winning in 6 at SA-act of desperation with blinkers on

Jason, speaking of which, are there gonna be some proposition bets this year/head to head horses in each race--I love that!

I think Dray may be right about Quality Road. Maybe the third race back at a route distance is the key? This Classic shapes up with many unknowns in the field. A half dozen of the entrants wouldnt surprise me at all as the winner. Richard's Kid has all the ingredients to win at a good price.

Jason,

I'm glad to hear someone still likes Zensational, and I really hope you're right about 2-1 or 5-2 in the Sprint.  Gayego beat a suspect field and looked great doing it in the Ancient Title, but you have to have confidence in Baffert in getting his sprinter ready for a lifetime best performance.  I also like the cutback for Zensational from 7f to 6f, and that he's coming in fresh so his gate speed and early speed should be even sharper than usual.

Baffert would love to have the Breeder's Cup at Santa Anita every year I bet, and his horses Midshipman and Midnite Lute saved my Breeder's Cup last year.  

What do people think of Fleeting Spirit? Has he gotten significantly better as a 4 year old?

Just to let everyone know, there is rain in the forcast for Nov 6.

I have no idea how rain affects Pro-ride but the 7th is just partly cloudy.  Whether or not the forcast is correct remains to be seen.

Monica V,

Ironically, during the winter it slowed the track down a bit, but it really didn't have an affect on track bias. If that's the case, watch out for Midday. She'll love the off turf. But its been awhile since we've had rain, its gonna take a whole lot to soften up that course.

Jason,

I would not go so far as to say QR is a "non factor" in the Classic. I want to see what the actual field looks like, the speed, the possible pace scenario, etc. first. QR has run better with his second start at 10 furlongs(JCGC) than the Travers. And when you think of it, the Travers wasn't that bad for a horse that was not ready to go a route race off one sprint victory (smashing a track record in the process). And both the Travers and JCGC were in the mud. IF he takes to the rubber, and IF he were to be the controlling speed...look out at a fair price. It's just way too early to toss him if in fact they chooses the Classic over the Dirt Mile.

Even if Zenyatta wasn't made the M/L fave, i think she would eventually, especially since the BC is out West. She's got a big fan base out here.

I now have you in my web Jason.  I have led you down the path to your own destruction.  I will take your bet and mount your money on my wall with a simple plaque under it that reads.  "Here hangs proof of another victim of Draynays brillance."

Steve S,

They're taking the Blinkers Off. But yes, i'm 5 deep in the P4 on that leg. 1,3,4,5,8

Monica V--It doesn't affect the Pro Ride--the only positive thing about it--the track holds up..

Mr White's "Big Three" each have big question marks! The rest over 10-1???...You mean Einstein, Col John, Gio Ponti, Richards Kid the 1 1/4 guys who like the Pro Ride??!!

Wow... I see Mr. White has been sipping some of the crazy Kool Aid.

Zenyatta over Summer Bird ? Has everyone in California lost their minds ?  Has no one watched Zenyatta's last 2 races ?  She beat Lethal Heat by a combined length and a half in the last two races.  Do you people not understand that Summer Bird would beat Lethal heat by 8 or more! Winner of the Travers and Jockey Gold and would not be favored over Zenyatta who has never gone the distance or faced boys before.  

Matthew:

Just read your 10:52 entry...I guess I missed it earlier.

As a maater of fact, I have a picture of her winning the Mother goose, signed by Borrel, hanging in my den, along with dozens of others, including many of the greats. Right next to Kelso, as a matter of fact. So it's not "under my pillow".

As far as the rest of you babbling blog, it doesn't merit a response.

RECHELLE

Question? Do you ever become bored in stating that Zenyatta isn't the same or won't win next week? Seems like I've heard that "song and dance" before,like a million times!

GREG J

I totally agree with you on Zenyatta.

Jason, wow you seem to know what you are doing in horse racing. It is really easy for you to diss a champion named Zenyatta. Excuse me but isnt she a Champ, until she is  dethroned. Oh yeah I forgot she has never lost` Hasnt RA lost? By the way the race they call the Woodward that RA ran should have been called NW2x Allowance Purse 55,000 7th race at Santa Anita.  It will not rain at Anita, trust me, if you read weather reports that show a chance of rain, it usually doesnt happen.  Zenyatta will prove she is the best horse period.

Ken from RI, I think you hit it right on the money. If Zenyatta makes her move sooner rather than later and can keep that kick going, she has a chance in the classic. If they wait like thay have been to kick into gear, it's over. This doesn't mean she can sustain her kick for a longer period of time, but if she can, she can win.

rhoward:

Did they have the sport of horse racing on the planet you came from?

And I bet you settled upon landing where else ....the Peoples Republic of California. Just a hunch....

To All,

Jon White sets the M/L based on how he thinks the public will wager NOT on what he personally thinks the odds should be.

Jason,

I really wasn't much of a fan of yours in the first month or two of reading your blogs. I have to say though, you are winning me over.

I have read many a hosted horse racing blog and very few of those hosts have the sack you are showing ( figuratively speaking, of course, lol ).  I like your willingness to say put up or shut up to your readers. Money has a way of separating the chaff from the wheat.

Yeah, no doubt about it, I am starting to come around to you Jason ( not that you asked ). Keep up the good work and keep on keeping the chaff honest.

I will gladly come back.  Draynay and yourself have never seen Zenyatta in person or even seen her run live. What an experience!!! She will love the 1.25 miles. Dray if you really think that Lethal Heat was close to Zenyatta, then Mr. Bolt almost lost the 100 meters in the Olympics in your eyes. Right? Reports are out that Summer Bird is not handling the track already. Get ready everybody for a complete DUD by this horrible 3 year old crop. If I was M. Smith i would be worried by Colonel John, Gio Ponti, or the European horse. I will be back to take your money Jason.

Saratoga AJ at least the Peoples Republic of California do not have to deal with a thing called MUD> East Coast racing is a joke, how many days of rain? Huh? How many days of MUD? You must be jealous of our culture. I sit at Anita's gorgeous clubhouse in my lawn chair receiving the sun rays. By the way that is in January.

Draynay,

I see that Dublin is going to run Sunday at Churchill in the Grade 3 Iroqouis. One turn mile. Wanyne still thinks he is one of the best two year olds he has ever had and that everybody better take notice next year.

The European presence in numbers may look impressive at over 30 horses. While this is so, please bear in mind that due to the overall level of horses in Europe, many more "good ones" have chosen not too travel. There are only 2 top Euros in the classic while only 2 of the ARC Field look set to go. One of Europe's top sprinters is coming and only one juvenile filly. If it wasnt for Coolmore / Godolphin, The uro challenge would be a joke. Sweet Hearth is now out of Dirt Mile. That right. France is only sending Goldikova and her glorified pacesetting stablemate. Irish trainers like Bolger and Weld and Prendegast sending zero. The Racing Post Trophy run last weekend featured a lot of Europe's top 2 year old - none are coming. The point I am making is that even though some good Euros are coming, there is a lot more talent not bothered to try.ost of the top US talent will be there. Why no South African, Australian, Japaneese etc. Is this truly a World Championships ???  

I'm not sayin she won't get the distance, I'm sayin others have so why bet her at 5-2 odds when you can get Richards Kid at 10-1---he'll wipe some of those Zensational tears away from Bob, after Gayego rolls on by!!..

I have read every single post on this blog.  

Thank you all for the many interesting views about ProRide..

So far, I'm with Zensational, Lookin At Lucky, and Ventura.  I will be with the Queen in which ever classic she runs.

I just simply cannot believe you Zenyatta people.  There is a very difference between running down some allowance winning filly and running down G1 winning males.  Anyone who tries to convince me she can run down Quality Road will get laughed at right in their face.  She is going to out kick Gio Ponti ? It's completely laughable and a waste of time.  She can't beat Careless Jewel or Music Note.  But to suggest she is going to run down G1 winning males is just plain crazy talk.  Why you ask, simple she has never done it and there are horses in the race who are proven G1 winners at the distance. 

longwaytomay Dublin is growing and learning I expect big things from him next year.

I'm taking Richards Kid over Gio Ponti--It won't suprise me one bit if Zenyatta blows by them all, I just won't be bettin on it--Richards Kid has turned into a real tough guy in Baffert's barn, and he is related somewhat/by breeder, I believe, to the great Bid, that's just a coincidence, Bid was unbeatable at Santa Anita,  this is just a very nice older horse--I like him to win, followed by Gio Ponti--he's just a good horse! Figures to fire, always does, like him for 2nd...face it. looks like it's gonna be a good Classic, eh??!!

sports.espn.go.com/.../story

Could not have said it better.

If I'm the morning line guy, I make Zenyatta favorite, too--it's WHO you THINK will be favored--He's likely right...

Yeah, well I guess that Jon White at least knows what the score is and if anyone knows how to judge talent and assign a monitory value to it, like a morning line, it’s him.

Saratoga…..you can get an autographed picture of Rachel and Borrel anywhere you want for a buck or two, but I bet you’ll have to look for a long time if you’re planning on finding on at Santa Anita.

Not Euro

Any horse can come and compete in the BC if they chose to as long as they pass the entrance requirements and that includes horses from any part of the globe.....Maybe a lot of them are chosing not to come because they have no chance to win.

Draynay

I didn't get the morning line that White assigned Quality Road for the Classic.....Come to think of it, is he even running in the Classic or is he going to opt for the Mile.....Personally, the way he ran in the Amsterdam, and with all the speed in the sprint, that might be a good alternative for him too because he could lay off the pace and then let go with that devasting kick he had at SAR....Any way, if his connections know what they are doing they'll stay away from the Classic.....that's where the BIG BABE is running.

I swore off but, people who know nothing about the status of certain horses should refrain from commenting on them, PLEASE.

How can you EXPECT things from horses you know NOTHING about?

Then if they disappoint, let the trashing begin?

I Must comment on the Quality Road issue, First of all, I think he will get the trip. I was at Belmont for the JCGC, and the condition of the track was allot worse than it showed on tv. They were basically running on water. QR visible struggled with the in the conditions,but he battled all the way down the stretch. I think he will get a fast track in the clasic. the only issue will be if he handles the surface.

Jason I do think he will at least show in the race, I will at worse be ahead of summer bird.

Personally I think Rip Van Winkle will win the race. He had allot of issues earlier in the year , and he is a horse that likes a fast pace and take some time to get going. Johny seems to have gotten a feel for how he wants to run now. I think  he takes control at the head of the stretch and holds off a fast closing Zenyatta.

hey Jason by the way since Zenyatta is such an awful choice , who do you like in the classic

Draynay, I understand your points about Zenyatta but I believe she has never been asked for her best. Don't you agree that is possibel-that we have never seen her best? IMO that is why she wins by such a slim margin. I agree that winning the Classic would be tough for her, but I believe she will be in the top three and as Bill Finley said, that will add to her reputation. I will say this, if you are right and we have already seen her best, she isn't going to be in the running at all.

I think Rail Trip's defection took the pace out of the Race. I am happy Zenyatta's owners have the balls to go out 14 for 14 with a win the most prestigous race of the year, sorry Dubai cup does not cut it for me. The Euro's may be overrated this year as much as they were underated this year. And California OWNS 6/12 down the Hill BRING IT!

Matthew W  your smoking something ZENSATIONAL will leave little doubt who the BARN Burner is Gayego drew a nice field in the Ancient Tittle but they were all also watched his butt previously. good Luck I will take my wheel and hope something esle runs 2nd/3rd for sweet Tri Pay off.

Jason I like Col. John to but I don't think he has the type of finish to travel with Rip. I won't have the luxury of seeing the horses in person

so do let me know if you see anything that could influence my betting one way or the other.

To be honest I will be looking for the value horses here, All of the races appear to be wide open to me.

The one bet that i do know i will make is Man of iron in the marathon. I looked at replays of all of his races, he seems to be an improving horse, and he will be at least 15-1. he is by Giant's Causeway, Half brother Jazil and Rags to Riches.

Jason,

    Well, Going to Philly 1-1 is fine, Philly has home field advantage now, Also think Pedro pitched great, Just a couple got away, A.J. pitched just a little better...

   Still mulling over possibly wager Jason, But the more I look, I keep coming back to Zenyatta and Zensational, I will keep looking though! How about I take Zensational, You take the field ?

Tim G.,

    In your comment above, Do you really think people will listen to your advice?  Quite doubtful, Some will continue, Even with zero knowledge of what they are talking about...

Hey, Wilson: while everyone is in love with Zensational, I'm thinking about Fleeting Spirit.  She finally got her Group 1 this year but she was always knocking on the door for the past few years.

And that's in keeping with "the Year of the Filly".

I've never seen so many people just waiting to see a horse run badly and seem to be so happy about the prospect.  To be so smug and certain that there is no chance that Zenyatta can step up to a challenge.  That there is no way she can run 10 furlongs even though her breeding and running style suggest she can.  That there is no way she can kick with these horses.  I must have watched the wrong replays, because I've never seen one horse that is in the Classic field finish with such explosivity and authority that would give me the impression that they can't be beaten.  It seems to me that they have taken turns beating each other, until Gitano Hernando came from Europe and beat them all.  Imagine a gr 3 European beating out best, but somehow there is  STILL no chance in your minds that Zenyatta could step her game up.  It's very interesting.  

My 3 best bets - Blind Luck in the

J Fillies - Goldikova in the mile and Summer Bird in the Classic.

Summer Bird is the 2nd best horse in the country right now (after Rachel Alexandra) and he will be there at the end.

Wow. Jason, I forgot all about Einstein.  So people think Zenyatta can beat Einstein?  Too funny. I can't wait until Nov. 7th I am going to have so much fun listening to all the excuses it really is going to be fun.

Jason,

I informed you a while back that John and Dottie had Zenyatta pegged on their calendar for the Breeders Cup Classic and the Clark Handicap.

Your in deep now. You better pray she doesn't win on the Pro-Ride, because she absolutely "loves" Churchill. She was training out of her mind on it before the rains hit Louisville.

The males don't have a chance against Zenyatta in Arcadia. Jon White will install her as the 5-2 favorite for the Classic.

Dottie told me that out of all the synthetic tracks in California, the Pro-Ride is her specialty.

Who wins HOY honors when Zenyatta goes 15-0 in her career, goes 6-0 on the year with two wins against males and is the first filly or mare to win the Breeders Cup classic?

You should never open your mouth until the end of the year is over when talking about HOY.

Many writers are not going to think favorably on the choices Jess Jackson has made, my friend.

Jason,

Good luck with those "Breeders Cup Classic" picks...your going to need it.

BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

Draynay,

Quality Road???

That horse is like looking at the south end of a north bound mule.

Are you one of those guys that judges horseflesh by the times they run, instead of who they beat?

Jason, you kept saying "no way" would Zen run in the BC...now you're saying "I'm not surprised?" LOL...just KIDDING with yah!

I think she'll love the extra distance, and if she puts in a kick like she did in the CHirsch...(I think that's the race)...

Total sentiment in my picks in the Classic..Zen 'cause she's a great girl, Summer Bird ('cause I picked him back in AD as one of my Derby faves and I LOVE TO BE RIGHT), MTB just because he's MTB, Einstein because he is truly a racehorse, and QR because he was my original Derby horse BEFORE the FOY (when Jason had tossed him).

Glad to finally see some teeth in a drug violation...eg Mullens.

Lazmannick,

Your comment to me was uncalled for...what exactly is your issue?  

1) I fully expect Zenyatta to be the favorite if she runs in the Classic.

2) I do not expect her to win the Classic. (Although, I am fully aware she could win)

and ...

3) I rate her as one of the greatest racemares of American history.

Those are my opinions.  Your statements attacking me come off as nothing short of ignorant.

Dublin is racing on Sunday. This race will determine if he needs surgery for a "problem" he has. If he wins, I guess DW overlooks the problem, if he loses, surgery. I would play against at low odds

Jason,

I just love your comments.  You say whatever you think and that's great!  You make me laugh a lot and that's why I just love this blog.

Draynay,

What can I say?  You're just Draynay.

Greg, it's not really advice, it's a plea. Just seems so unfair not to mention flat out unkind and certainly not beneficial to see some of these comments. It's hurtful to the connections because a lot of us look at our horses like they are family. Know some of the fans are emotionally tied to them as well.

Like you, Footlick, Monica and some of the more reasonable people are saying about Zenyatta that the venom and unkindness directed towards her borders on sickness.

Draynay, you said in sarcasm that if Jerry is leaning towards the Classic you are also leaning towards giving Jason a million $?

Well Jerry has something to lean with, whereas you don't have the horse or the money. As far as excuses? Unless people have a horse they don't have to make excuses. Bad handicapping unless you lose your shirt is irrelevant. It's all for fun, or supposed to be. If an owner/trainer makes an excuse? That's usually because they love their horses and don't want to see them bashed.

Frankly, I'm sure most of us really would rather not see someone SO negative about other horses, hyping one of ours.

On the races, my personal opinion.

I think Mastercraftsman will be really tough. The Juvenile fillies will be very interesting and that's going to be fun. I too see a banner day for the Euros.

I really can't wait to see what Barry does with LH, a first for sure.

Baffert has a strong hand on his home turf and Pletcher is loaded, but that's happened before without amazing success so we'll see.

As for Zenyatta? Win, lose or draw it will be great to see this wonderful mare who has brought so much enjoyment to so many people. Along with all the exciting runs this year by others, it's been a lot of fun and excitement. Whatever she does? She has done everything to date with class and a joy that is just plain fun to watch.

All of the rest of it? Doesn't minimize her, just does that to the people who 'supposedly' love the sport.

Zenyatta is the biggest reason, in my opinion, that this Breeder's Cup will be one of the most interesting and entertaining especially if she runs in the Classic.  I would think we will know by today or tomorrow whether or not she will run the Distaff or the Classic.  If she goes in the Classic, it will be the race of the decade.  An undefeated mare going against males for the first time in one of the world's richest races.  Even if she doesn't win, she will hit the board and it will not diminish her at all.  If she wins,  WOW!  We can all think and say what we want but none of us have a clue as to what she will do.  It could go either way it depends on her, how she feels, how competitive she is and how much heart she has.  She will be truly tested, I think for the first time.

She may refuse to be beaten and if that is the result, then she will become the stuff of legends.  If she doesn't win but runs a good race, she is still be one of the all time greats.  This will be no cakewalk for any of them but deep down, I feel the winner of this race will be an upset winner.  I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if that little MTB pulled it off again!  I wouldn't mind that at all.  It would make a great race.  Who knows?  I'll have to ponder a bit further before I make a choice.

Citation,

    Just to correct a few mistakes in your last comment, If Zenyatta wins, It will be 14-0 for her career(Not 16-0), It would be 5-0 this year(Not 6-0), It would be her first race against males(Not second race)...

Tim G.,

    Spot on!  What kills me, When people or "Fans", Say they love this sport, But continue to belittle and bad mouth Horses, Owners, Trainers. Whenever I see that, It is obvious to me, They are not a Fan, They are the complete opposite, and garner zero respect from me, and I would hope everyone else that actually respect all of the connections to this sport and don't feel the need to put them down.  This sport doesn't need those kind, Good Riddance...

Hmm, Billy, wondering which one of Wayne's 'former' employees is giving you this 'info'?

Citation:

"she (Zenyatta) absolutely "loves" Churchill. She was training out of her mind on it before the rains hit Louisville".

So a little mud stopped the great Zenyatta from running, making the LONG trip across the country pointless right?. Now, let me see, Rachel Alexandra ran in every condition on 7 different tracks on real dirt...wet, sealed, good, fast...it mattered not. THAT'S WHAT GREAT HORSES DO.

As far as Churchill, RA won there by 20 from what I remember. And the BC Classic is there next year. Hmmmm.  

I want to get in on the wager on who will win HOTY this year. How about covering my bet too, Citation?

Jason, well done on live blog.

If resources allow, you should consider expanding the hour window. I already have punted Albert (Einstein). Dust the cobwebs of that wallet of yours and book a flight to the UK or Ireland.  

25-1  huge, regardless of result.

Jason,if Zenyatta wins:   you treat me to 1)Scotch, 1)Bourbon & 1)Beer

If not: I'll buy you a hot dog. Deal?  lol

Need a horse to bet on sat or sun who has BLINKERS ON-2 Last race 60-75 days ago 3 Track Switch-SURFACE SWITCH 4 LIGHT BEYERS 5 DIFFerent JOCKEY 6THREE WORKOUTS OR MORE-

Greg J.,

Re:  The comment by Citation about Zenyatta's record, I think he was counting the Clark Hcp which he says she is supposed to run in.  If she won both BC Classic and Clark, then the numbers would add up, plus I personally would vote for her for Horse of the Year, if I had a vote.  

I didn't think Rachel could lose HOY, but in this Year of the Female, it's my prerogative to change my mind.  

It's all speculation at this point, and I don't know what Citation knows, but I can't imagine they would run Zenyatta back in anything only 3 weeks after her biggest race.  That would be totally uncharacteristic of her connections.

Greg J,

Re-read my post about the statistics of Zenyatta and then you'll understand, cowboy.

Let me repeat it for you:

She will be going to the Clark Handicap after the Breeders Cup.

Wow,you're brave & easy to please. lol. So,you'll leave her out of your pick-4's & all?

Seriously tho'....are you gonna' have time to kick-back with us mere peasants and have a brew or 2?..We know you have a 'work' to do.  ahem...  :}

@Greg J.

Just to clarify what Citation wrote, he said Zenyatta would be 15-0 overall and 6-0 this year if she won BOTH the Breeder's Cup Classic AND the Clark Handicap. And if she competes in the latter, Citation said it would be her second race against males.

Tim G, not former! Current. All that I am going to say is stay away. If I am wrong, shame on me. But, when a horse can't breath, a horse can't win. We will see. Look for me at CD on Sunday, in he paddock for the 8th race. Jason, our filly,  Tiz Miz Sue is running again, on dirt (finally) and should be a good price in the Pocahantas. I am thinking 3-4th choice.

I thought we weren't discussing RA on this blog?

GREG J

Regarding so called fans I agree with what you stated. I've posted the same thing and it makes me sick. Many are just crybabies!

Citation,

     My bad, Sorry...I love Zenyatta, But, There is NO WAY she is going to the Clark at Churchill, Zero chance.  You are saying that after winning at 1 1/4 for the first time on Nov. 7th against the toughest field she has ever faced, She is then going to Kentucky after less then three weeks rest and be in the Clark at 1 1/8 on Friday Nov. 27????   There is NO way that will ever happen...

Well, considering you have a filly, you know how that's a no no.

But I'll pass it on.

HELLO JASON

I wish you great luck next week,but regarding Zenyatta I have ZERO doubt that she will win.

And if she doesn't Mike, who cares, right?

Who among us can ever forget that personality, the little jig and the look she gives her loyal and faithful subjects.

Some of these once in a lifetime horses? What we all wouldn't give to have them! ANY

If Zenyatta wins the BC Classic this would mean that she has done MORE than Personal Ensign.  To not win HOY would be a travesty.  Personally I think she would loose but I digress.  Personal Ensign faced a small field of males and almost lost to a Kentucky Derby winning filly who has been completly left out of the top 100 list of all time greats (note to RA that the Preakness may be forgotten).  These HOY's and lists make me irrate!  

ABZ

You always give Zenyatta some sort of praise and then make sure you finish it off with some derogatory comment or by making sure that you let everyone know that you think that Rachel is superior.  Check back on your post and see what I mean.

ABZ

One other thing but if Rachel was in the Classic and she was made the MLF would you make sure that you posted the same comment that you just had to post for Zen?

Matthew W,

I always loved Clocker's Corner!  There is nothing like getting to Santa Anita in the early morning just before sunrise.  Santa Anita is the most beautiful track I have been to.  The grounds and the seating areas are so nice and the view of the San Gabriel Mountains is magnificent.  The air in the early mornings during autumn is crip and clean and the horses on the track are feeling great!  They love the coolness and I remember seeing Alysheba kicking up his heels in the cool air and feeling so good.  Who wouldn't love seeing those gorgeous creatures stretching out, muscles rippling, coats shining and a gracefulness that is God-given.  It is such a pleasure to watch.  I LOVE the mornings at the track.  Isn't it great?

With all you Left Coasters and Zenyatta fans so sure she will win, I got a feeling she will end up being the biggest underlay on the entire BC card. The feeling here is she will be an over bet bust.

I was just thinking...what if the impossible happens and it rains on BC Day. I guess Zen gets scratched, right? Hell, they did after shipping her 4000 miles. All they have to do is leave her in the barn there. LOL  

Actually I'm not from the West Coast, I can't wait for it to come back to Kentucky, out here we're victims of the synthetics as far as who DIDN'T go. But I think what we're saying is we're fans of any horse that has people excited about watching the races. Shouldn't we ALL be?

p.s. isn't THAT what has SO MANY people SO excited about California and the synthetics? The rain doesn't cause mud and therefore horses don't scratch from running in the slop?

I hope they do what is in the best interest of the mare. She's done a lot to keep Cal racing as relevant as it is, whatever that is.

THEY don't need to feed their ego, or any of the other rot about HOY.

Well, there's 'healthy' debate and then there's posturing and superfluous, redundant negativity.

Bantering back and forth and betting hot dogs vs booze is funny, bitter mean comments aren't.

What is the type of negativity that you proclaim to dislike? I'd hope as a TURF writer, part of the industry and dependent upon it for your livelihood, you would consider shock value and argument initiating comments as the negative.

Jason, I haven't said a negative thing about a HORSE, I may single out people who do trash them at every opportunity, but show me where I've said one thing negative about HORSES, jockeys, etc???

The synthetics? Yes that's an inanimate object with no feelings attached. If you think that's negative? Well I don't know what to say just that defense of a defenseless animal who gives there all sure doesn't seem negative to most people I communicate with. If you can't figure out what comments I'm talking about? I can't help you there. Didn't say you picking against her is negative, nor anyone else who picked against her. There's a difference between handicapping and just making comments for effect.

The one of mine on here you didn't publish? Basically said HOY, lists etc are politically motivated and personal opinions.

So yes I do have the option to not come back, only did because of the b.s. I was reading. Just like we all have the option not to renew the BH.

I gave my opinion, MasterC is my bet of the day. I also stated I'm intrigued by the Juvenile Fillies.

The BC has a jockey bet and I think that'll be fun.

TIM G

Very good points regarding Zenyatta. I agree!

LAZMANNICK

I totally agree w/you with what you told ABZ regarding Zenyatta. RECHELLE is exactly the same. Every post slams Zenyatta in some manner,never fails.

I was at Santa Anita the day Bayakoa's 16 month reign of terror was ended by Rhulmann at odds of

4-5.  She eased herself home in last place as the crowd was dead silent.  Dray is 110% right and I am one of the biggest Zenyatta fans out there (I've seen her at S.A., Hollywood, and Del Mar).  Her time to take on the boys has passed. She could have closed against a declining Curlin just like Raven's whatever did.  Come on Tiago...she consistently outworks her stable mate.  Why not the Pacific Classic this year?  This indecision has led to probably one of the worst decisions ever.  This is bad all the way around.  It will be tough betting against her with Einstein and Gio but a man has to eat.  

Householder- If you think she'll finish last like Bayakoa then don't bet her.  But remember Bayakoa rarely won without the lead so they had to run with Ruhlmann.  Zenyatta runs differently.  Del Mar would have been the last place I'd run her against colts because she doesn't act like she really likes that track.  They could have run her in the Goodwood, but it obviously wasn't in their plan.  Since I don't bet, maybe I don't look at things the same way as people who do.  She won't be value, but since I'm not looking to make money that doesn't matter to me. And from what I've read, Thoro-graph, Ragozin, Globeform, Timeform and Racing Post UK are not discounting her or take her lightly either.  So we'll see.  As I said, looking at the vids of all running, nobody in that field scares me except for RVW, who will kick like Euro's do.  Other than Zenyatta and maybe Richard's Kid, I haven't seen anybody kick like that.  Gio can kick on the turf, but he may not be able to duplicate it on synthetic.  I'm going to download Globeform's BC special edition this week-end.  And I'll go from there.  They've done well with the BC in the past.

Househlder

I know what you mean.....Top males can almost always bring top females down to their knees on dirt in route races.....But don't forget that in the '90 Big Cap Bayakoa was also giving the HOY Criminal Type 3 actual lbs. (not counting the wieght variances male to female) and the winner Ruhlmann and the third horse Flying Continental 1 lb. straight up.....It was also her third race in a month and her second really tough race in 2-weeks.

Laz- good points.  She was hickory, but it might have been too much especially giving weight to males and running as often as she was.

ABZ

Ignorant I'm not, but I recognize cute when I read it.

householder are you kidding me? Zenyatta wins and has done more then PE ?  How many wins does Zenyatta have at Belmont, Churchill, or Saratoga ?  Zenyatta is a poly specialist which will mean nothing 5 years from now when tracks go back to dirt.

Draynay,

Do we have "selective" memory?

I think you stated that Zenyatta hasn't travel to other tracks and that she is a synthetic specialist.

Did Zenyatta travel to Oaklawn Park and bring the Distaff champion to her knees?

I think she did, didn't she?

This mare "absolutely" loves the dirt and the synthetics.

Ask your yourself this question:

Why does Zenyatta keep winning?

Look deep inside yourself, take the resentment and anger you have for Zenyatta away and ask yourself why these east coast and west coast mares cannot beat her.

She has raced against the best east coast and west coast mares and no matter what pace they set, she devours them. Pretty special, isn't it?

PS:

Take some time out of your life and do yourself a "favor" and watch the Grade I Apple Blossom.

Zenyatta travels to a dirt track in another state pretty well, doesn't she?

Draynay,

Zenyatta would take that fluke (Personal Ensign) out behind the woodshed.

Would you ppl get off ABZ! He has an opinion SO WHAT! He likes Zenyatta but thinks she'll lose, well so do I. Shoot me for it why don't you. He has valid opinions, Zen has taken on a watered down division in Cali for the older females and hasn't faced a field near this quality if she goes in the Classic. He also never said anything about RA. Jason, ABZ, and I all think that she will be the favorite yet lose. I don't see you yelling at Jason for it, though I can see you coming at me for it now. People are allowed their own opinions, not everyone has to agree with you.

GHOSTZAPPER

I've been a loyal Zenyatta fan from day one,but you know nothing to suggest that Personal Ensign was a"fluke". What planet do you reside on anyway?

Citation,

You are absolutely dead on!

Zenyatta made a mockery of that Apple Blossom field. She was 12 lengths off the pace and blew past the field (as if they were claimers).

Zenyatta appears to be much better on the dirt than the synthetics.

Watch this mare close in this impressive performance on the dirt:

www.youtube.com/watch

Absolutely frightening. She literally grabbed Ginger Punch by the throat and didn't let her up.

Citation,

If you watch that Apple Blossom, you'll notice that Ginger Punch is 12 lengths ahead of Zenyatta going into the far turn, and at the wire, she ends up 12 lenghts behind Zenyatta.

U-N-B-E-L-I-E-V-A-B-L-E!

CITATION,DR FAGER,WAR ADMIRAL

Great points from you guys!

DRAYNAY

Without Zenyatta in the race,I think CJ will beat Music Note

I just love Zenyatta in this race because she is a big mare got the fast workout that this kind of horse need to run their best races and barring any problems I believe she will just gallope home first good luck Mike, Your friend R.T.

LDP

What’s this, an order from the Queen of GUEST BLOGGERS forbidding us to say anything other than something positive to other members of THE ORDER OF GUEST BLOGGERS!

I find it very HYPOCRITICAL to so-called praise a horse and then turn the other cheek and make those pathetic little comments.

Interesting...

Do you think Tim Ice is pointing this question to Jess "No Show" Jackson?

The response of Tim Ice, trainer of Summer Bird, to the question of who should be Horse of the Year:

“My opinion is that each sport has its championship game and if you don't compete in the championship game, you shouldn't (win) the championship.

“This is definitely the spot, the highlight of the year as far as great horses coming together. This is the stage that you should want to be on and this should mean Horse of the Year.”

"Horse of the Year has turned into a popularity contest".

Summer Bird, he's saying what we all are saying in the industry and what I've been saying on these blog comments. Sure maybe they aren't the end all and be all, particularly on the surface that so many are staying away from, but if a horse like Summer Bird, with the campaign he's had wins the Classic? Everyone will see what we all already know, that the Eclipse Awards as a whole have turned into a popularity contest.

WHO but the colt that wins the Juvenile will win Juvenile of the year? WHO but the Juvenile Filly that wins that race will win JF of the year? With no clearcut frontrunners WHO will be the winners? Unless we go with a synthetic specialist as Draynay would say and choose Lookin At Lucky, or continue the Jackson pandering and go with Hot Dixie Chick.

By the way did you guys see Zenyatta's work today?

For the king of the 'works' and the king of the 'times' put attention man.

Laz,

    He didn't even praise her, just stated a fact then his opinion. How is stating that he expects her to enter the race as the favorite praising her. If you want to see trashing go else where, that was not it, it is a simple opinion, Jason said it aswell and I don't see you calling him "cute". Don't have enough guts to call the head out, so you pick on someone else. Not only are you a bully but a pathetic one. You show me where ABZ praised her then trashed her, oh wait you can't cause he didn't. You twisted it in your own head and have to much pride to actually admit it. The guy hardly ever posts on here and the when he finally does you jump down his throat, saying you are getting tired of his "cute remarks"? Before you he commented ONCE on this blog, so what remarks on here do you speak of? Does on little thing set you off that badly? I never said you had to be nice but that was uncalled for and unfair and downright rude to call him out, when others on this forum do it much worse and much more often and you don't say a word to them. And if I'm Queen, nobody acts like it, by the way you act you would think you were the royal guard of Zenyatta. I've been fairly decent on these blogs for a while, but when you want to be stupid and rude to a friend of mine you can bet your life on it I'll come back like a darn bull whip. Your comment was wrong, flat out wrong.

The closer the Classic gets the bigger chance I think Zenyatta has to win the race. Work looked great yesterday and she is gonna LOVE that extra 1/8 of a mile. "Just get her in gear a bit faster, Mike!"

Of course Tim Ice is pointing that question at JJ.  He wants a rematch with RA to prove his horse can beat her and she's not in the classic for that to happen.  I know there are several people on this blog who absolutely hate the thought of Rachel winning HOY over anyone but to say that no one should get HOY if they don't run the BC is ludicrous.  Any horse who has 8 staight wins, 5 grade 1's on 7 different tracks shouldn't be out of the running because she doesn't run at The BC.  Who has a better record this year?  I know, I know, RA has done nothing only beat a bunch of claimers.  One of those horses was Summer Bird and don't think that doesn't bother Ice.  She beat him by six legths, that a was a decisive victory and if it had been 10 furlongs, he wouldn't have caught her.  I know, the track wasn't to his liking and RA relished it so it wasn't a legitimate win because SB was compromised on the track.  That's horse racing.  I have heard more negativity regarding Rachel than I can believe.  Her being over-rated can be rationalized to death but the fact of the matter is the people constantly putting her down either dislike her connections or they feel their favorite horse is being overlooked because of RA.  That is at the crux of the whole thing and it is understandable.  Love of a horse will do that.  When another horse comes along and excels it takes the spotlilght from your favorite and no one is better than your beloved horse.  Why else would these arguments exist?  No one one this blog will benefit or lose anything whomever gets HOY, bottom line.  Tim Ice will definitely benefit if SB wins HOY so his position is certainly a reasonable one, it's his livelyhood, I would feel the same way in his position.  I will say, though, that Zenyatta should have won HOY last year, she was cheated and I love Curlin but she should have won.

Monica- Don't discount RA's Haskell win.  Yes, it's a speed favoring track and superior speed horse do better than superior stretch runners, but I would never discount her win.   She ran a great race.  He's better at a longer distance than a shorter one, but if then maybe they shouldn't have run.  You all know I'm not the biggest RA supporter in the world but I try to be fair.  Haskell was her strongest race this year, track bias or not.

Thank you, Footlick