From those of us who worked all year and got no raise, no bonus (and I mean couple hundred $$, not CEO bonus) had one day a week cut from our work week, had to use vacation time because of unexpected factory shut downs, we feel really, really bad for the back track workers, not quite so much for millions still available to be spent on young, unproven horses...there were a lot of off the chart glory days for a number of years where the horses were way overpriced...I sincerely wish everyone the best as we all get through these tough times.

"some people are predicting the turnaround in the horse market will begin sometime in 2010"

Why?  You can always find "some people" that will predict anything.  What these "people" never say is why they think the way they do.  It seems much more likely to be wishful thinking rather than an opinion based on evidence.  The horse racing industry is in crisis in the entire country with public interest declining, handle dropping precipitously, national media exposure dropping and many racetracks struggling to survive.  Despite this, the sales environment has managed to do ok for years.  However, now that the sales environment has turned negative, I believe that there will need to be a turnaround in the overall industry before the sales will rebound.  And turnarounds don't just happen; they need concrete improvements to drive them.

FourCats, I'd say pedictions are trending that way because the predictors are desperate (or delluded). You are right--there are massive changes that need to happen, even beyond the breeding industry if this sport and the industry are going to survive. In strictly economic terms, racehorses are a luxury item and thereby much more sensitive to the overall economy...and who knows when that is really going to stabilize. We also won't know if and how much stud fees will be lowered until the end of this year when 2010 fees are announced; if the breeders guess wrong and don't lower them enough, the profit hemmorrage is going to continue past 2012 when next year's conception crop hits the yearling sales. Meanwhile there's a total lack of direction, organization, rule making, and rule enforcement throughout the sales, breeding and racing sectors and all we can seem to do about it sit around and talk about how long it took us to realize that this is a bad thing. Nobody is marketing the industry or the sport to its full advantage, so we're losing fan support with no central organization to draw them back with images of our good side. Fewer fans means less outside involvement, less revenue for tracks, lower purses, and fewer racing operations that will stay in business. The value of a racing prospect will plummet...and we all know that means there will be more horror stories of abuse and slaughter hitting the news wires, making us all look worse. With the commercial market fading as well, this is one time when I think the doomsday Chicken Littles have it right. This is bigger than a reduction in foal registrations and median prices, this is the writing on the wall insisting that we either change everything we know or disappear. Industry leaders, breeders, owners, trainers, even journalists will either read it and act or ignore it.

Let's hope everyone is feeling especially literate by the end of 09.

DID RUSSIANS spent any money?

DId russians take any Unbridled song runners?

40 plus yearlings purchased by John Black, guess he was the leading buyer by quantity. Ranging from 3,000 to 50. Wonder if these are additional RNA's? or real sales.

Actually 13% is more like 1 in 8 than 1 in 10.

horse racing is in adown turn because of the greed of these big farms(cheap labor, mainly illegals) wich brings the quality of care extremely low, and high stud fees which are impossible to achieve a profit, until these farms and trainers don't start changing things, like letting american workers have some of these jobs, than horse racing as we know it will never recover, ashame on you guys, and you call your selves americans, you socialist bigots.

No offense to anyone who's hurting from the down economy, but...

Speaking purely from a "Breeding Fans" point of view, I think this is a good thing for the "Integrity" of the Breed itself.

For too many decades now everybody and their brother tried to breed Thoroughbreds as "Cheaply" as they could.   And...IMO...it's hurt the overall Breed itself.

Everyone agrees that Thoroughbreds have been over-populated during those same decades, so maybe now the down economy will actually force out some of those Cheap Breeders so that eventually the Breed itself will be able to regain it's "Integrity" ???

Again...NO offense to anyone, but i'm speaking from a Fan of the Breeding behind these horses point of view.

Racing is the life blood of our industry-Breeders will not exist without racing being successful. Our industry is in turmoil- too much product, too many disparate organizations, too much fragmentation of the industry, no structure to speak of and lack of strong leadership. We need focused leadership (a czar of racing)  that can implement a simple solution. Here is the proposed solution:

1) Structure and organization – a simple governance to mange it;

2) Right size the business and revenue model-give power to the owners and fix the purse structure;

3) Address Integrity (Medication and Safety, The tote system and Auction Practices) of the sport as a priority; and

4) Take care of our customers (horse players and Fans) –become a customer centric industry.

It won’t be easy but it is doable. We need to work together to reinvent our business. Otherwise we will not have an industry to speak of.

Why with all of Kentucky proud of its horse heritage,  did the legislature oppose slots?

Now, as the sales focus  turns to the Mid Atlantic, where horesman are enjoying slot revenue, you'll see prosperity abound,--- via Kentucky horses.

Who was John Black buying for and where wee the yearlings going.  We should be thankful for both John Ferguson and John Back.

Too many mares bred and not enough buyers and that is how simple it is. Breeders look at the million dollar yearlings and think that could be me but it will not happen.

Well, racing is the engine for the industry. When the racing industry asks the question, how would we design the industry today if we had none already, the answers will be there. I can tell you, slots is not the answer. Start from the beginning, design a new bettor experience, and get special interests out of the way.

My background is in purebred cattle and I have only followed the breeding end of horse racing for a few years but I see the same thing here as there.  Too many want to use the new stallions instead of using those stallions and matings that are proven by progeny performance.  Also it makes a lot of sense to me to look for stallions that were able to race as five year olds rather than those that had to be retired as 2's or 3's because of "problems".  They are all very fragile and bad things can happen for no apparent reason but if more of those tough older horses were used instead of the 90% of new ones who will end up not working the chances for success would gratly improve.

I was at the sale! I work very hard everyday in a small business and try to save a little. I was able to buy a Smarty Jones filly out of a G1 $2,380,000 winning mare for $10,000. I know Smarty is ice cold as a stud, it is still a great value. I would have never been able to get this horse 2 years ago.

"only 13% of the yearlings offered were profitable" Great Insight! According to my calculations, Smarty Jones had 0 profitable yearlings. 35 cataloged, 30 were sold, and not one yearling sold for $100,000 or more. THat's a zero for profitability for him. Shocking that the sale as a whole has only 1 in 10 yearlings sell for a profit.

OK, SO THE FIRST 2 DAYS OF THE KEENLAND SALE PROVED PROFITABLE FOR WHO?  MOST OF THOSE BERNARDINI'S AND MEDAGLIA D'ORO'S WERE PURCHASED BY FERGUSON AT HIGH DOLLARS. THOSE STALLIONS WERE SUPPORTED BY THE OWNERS OF THE STUD FARM.  VERY WELL SUPPORTED. NOT THAT ITS A BAD THING, BUT UNREALISTIC WHEN IT COMES TO THE REAL NUMBERS OF GAME.  NOT EVERY STALLION FARM HAS DEEP POCKETS AND NOT EVEY STALLION BARN WILL SUPPORT THE STALLIONS EITHER. BREEDING HAS ALWAYS BEEN A GAMBLE..NOW ITS A RISK. ITS A BUYERS MARKET AND IF YOU ARE RACING, YOU CAN PICK UP SOME REALLY NICE HORSES.  BUT THE BREEDERS ARE HURTING AND WILL CONTINUE TO HURT UNLESS THE STUD FEES BECOME REALISTIC.

SJB acts like he stole something-glad he happy about his purchase

STOP breeding so many of these horses. America is keeping Europe well fed thanks to all these thoroughbreds that nobody wants or can afford.

overbreeding, overbreeding, and over breeding. It's got to stop. we need to restructure the whole industry top to bottom. skyrocketing stud fees got to halt. stud farms have gotten too greedy since the hey days of 2003-2006. but most of all we need to put integrity back into the sport of horse racing. moniter these trainers more, too many owners getting bled dry by these trainers destroying their investments.where have  all these sales toppers gone? millions of dollars of horse flesh getting trained to the ground. if you think i am crazy then go look in the form and tell me where all the high price purchases are running? i guess there is a secret track on mars. we are a dying industry, we need to evaluate and restructure. we will not recover unless all aspects of the industry work in unity to rectify things. the greed has got to to stop. we need a visionary.

Maybe, all breeding stock must be required to race before being able to bred. this way overbreeding will be greatly  diminished. and there will be more races.  A maximum mares per stallion will also help widen the genetic pool and help the price of the foals. this might  increase the price of stud fee. but i think a high stud fee as long as it is profitable does not really matter, but a high stud fee in this market matters. also, it will bring to light other stallions too.    

also, a higher taxes on the 21st or 31st foal per person /company bred. for this there must be a law that each person can be a majority shareholder only to one company that breeds horses at a lower tax bracket. this might sound socialist, but it will help the quality and price. and also it gives the smaller breeder a better chances to succeed.

PJ, How do you figure higher taxes on the 21st or 31st will help the smaller breeder??

The horse industry as a whole is part of the larger economy and therefore not immune to the greater recession.  Those that I have trusted financially and have called things right for the past ten years say we are in this for another 3-5 years.  All disciplines have overbred with an eye toward sire "flavors of the month."  The positive thing about this economy is that it will eliminate the two bit trainers and other industry "hanger onners" who are interested only in immediate gratification and not the long term quality of a particular discipline or its horses.