Glimmer of hope?

Subtract the Overbrook Farm Dispersal from the gross numbers, and where are you?

Add up the championship blood sold, forever lost to breeders in the USA, at what future, unknown cost?

Add the stories of the breeders behind the RNA's and even more so the outs (withdrawal from sale).

Add the stories of the breeders who were forced by their individuals circumstances to sell below their costs.

If you subtract and add the above listed from/to the story, plus more, I do not understand how you see even a Glimmer of Hope.

To state that the economy is in a rebound, because of a rising stock market gives false hope. You or I do not have that crystal ball to say if this market is the "V" or is going to become a "W". The banks are only starting now to face the rising credit card debt and the commercial real estate debt. In large this debt only becomes due in 2010/2011. Should they face major defaults in either or both it will make the housing market calamity look like a glimmer of hope.

There are ways for the horse industry to rebound. It will take leadership like yours, a platform such as you have, to make this industry whole, to make it happen. Please I ask you, do not squander your position in the interpretation of statistics, presenting a pied piper version of life.            

This is the time for breeders to demand changes. This is the only business on the planet that you pay a commission for a product to be sold, even if it's not sold, and you pay it to two different entities, and you pay minimums. The breeder takes all the risk, pays all the bills, commissions,etc.This industry needs to be run like any other industry, if I pay for a service,I.E. stud fee, and get a horrible result, why should I have to pay that fee, any other business, you would return the product and ask for a refund. Would welcome other thoughts from breeders.

GEE NOW IF THE HORSES THEY DID BUY WERE GOING TO STAY SOUND AND BE ABLE TO RACE FOR MORE THEN A YEAR, WOULDN'T THAT BE NICE, PROVIDED THERE ARE STILL TRACKS TO RACE ON AND MONEY TO RUN FOR.... THE BREEDERS ARE LIKE THE "SELF INFLICTED GUNSHOT WOUND" OF RACING, JUST A BUNCH OF MONEY HUNGRY SO AND SO'S, THEY NEED TO QUITE WORRYING SO MUCH ABOUT THE PEDIGREE AND START WORRYING ABOUT THE BONES IN THE LEGS, BUILD US A SOUNDER HORSE AND MAYBE PEOPLE WILL PAY FOR IT!

Of course the economy has had an effect on the sales.  But so does the financial health of the racing industry itself which continues to decline drastically.  More and more tracks are reducing their dates for 2010.  Purses keep dropping despite ownership costs continuing to rise.  Until this industry can find a way to make horse ownership at least marginally profitable, I believe that the sales prices will continue to stay low or go lower, regardless of the improvement in the economy.  Racing's leaders need to wake up and work to fix the sport (and slots are at best a temporary bandage, not a fix) or racing will be gone from the U.S.

Is there light at the end of the tunnel or is it an oncoming locomotive?  The Government says the unemployment rate is 10+% and won't be picking up until the first quarter.  But 17%, almost one in five Americans, are out of work.  With these numbers some very big banks won't survive the continued credit card default and that means very tight credit for an industry that needs it.  After being at Keeneland in November, I'd just hope there is some stabilization.  Perhaps that is even money.  To think it also depends on States making rational decisions, and we all know what idiocy prevailed in NY and Ky this year.  I'd give the market another year to stabilize and then perhaps I'll head for Lourdes.

Yea, I was there. First I applaud Keenland for marketing the Foreign buyers and the Overbrook dispersal.  That was a smart move.  However, prices were low concidering the quality of horses offered in the first week.  Most of those sales went overseas which left the scraps at the end of the sale.  The pinhookers had to fill orders thus bringing prices up on horses that may have sold much cheeper in todays market. It seemed that the " not so hot sires " were given away." or the "hot new sires" were withdrawn from the sale or RNA'd . Horses who came in with their legs on backwards..well..that is what it is. Let's see what the January sale brings.  The numbers should be more realistic, or perhaps pinhookers will pay more to buy a short yearling that they couldn't buy in November.  Either way , it should be interesting. Heres to a better year for everyone in the business.  

Addendum to letter Nov 23rd 6:20 PM

Unfortunately one of the first signs of default in commercial real estate debt hits the thoroughbred industry very close to home.

Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid  Al-Maktoum is a true racing/horse enthusiast and I wish him well in resolving Dubai's problems. How ever, one must take into account, he is not a horseman. His end all be all, is not the thoroughbred industry.

He is the ruler of a City State Nation that is interconnected with other City State's to form the United Arab Emirates. Hope in his continued participation in the thoroughbred industry on the same level as he had in the past is wishful thinking. If reason, or other forces dictate, he will retrench in his thoroughbred holdings. No one could blame him. His position, his country, his people, are all hang in the balance on the decisions made by him in the upcoming months. The World Wide Economy will have serious negative repercussions if the problems of Dubai are not resolved. The thoroughbred industry will be but a small part that will suffer both directly and indirectly.

The world wide financial markets slid downward today (Friday) just on the initial news of possible problems in Dubai. The upcoming weeks can be frightful.

That said, we, I, need those of you in the thoroughbred media to help find those leaders who might be unknown, but who are out there, that can help resolve the industry problems. Most of all we, I, need you in the media to not fluff but to be brutally truthful.      

Glimmer of hope?? Writers and general fans might see it that way, but the way I see it, here in Kentucky, there is no glimmer of hope. No glimmer at all for the mares who aren't commercial enough and are put down because they are too cheap and were bred to cheap stallions. No glimmer of hope for weanlings that are well bred, but are a little too crooked for the commercial market and are scheduled to die on New Years Day. This isn't just an isolated incident, it is happening everyday here and it is sick! Owners are breeding mares on LF grntees and if they don't like the way the foal looks they just put them down after they're weaned. Every major farm here is doing it, and everyone of them will deny it, but I see it everyday. Who wouldn't survive nowadays: Mr. Prospector(too crooked),Northern Dancer(too small),Sunday Silence(too crooked).I've been in this business for 20 yrs. and am not out to save every horse on the world, but this is going too far.