Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

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Marc W

On a off shore betting site after the race at Oaklawn I got 60-1 on Win Willy and put $25 on him. I thought he was good value although I still think FF is my choice and respect a good number of horses. This is only my second winter book bet and my other never made the Derby starting line-up. As a whole a very bad bet in the last few years as many who reach the started at Churchill actually are bigger prices on in the gate if they start. Should Win Willy win I suspect he still would be 5/8-1 at the gate in KY.

A colleague of yours on another blog @ BLOODHORSE has mentioned I was drinking my bathwater liking WW and could have spent my money on dinner instead of taking 60-1-interesting?

I certainly could be wrong, but watching that race a few times and the distance from Old Fashioned to the third horse suggests to me it wasn't a fluke.

As you mentioned-that's why they call it gambling.

01 Apr 2009 11:55 AM
Tiznowbaby

This is shaping up to be a good Derby field and very exciting. What would be really exciting is if they all performed their best on May 2. (and even more exciting if Mr. Hot Stuff pulls off the ridiculous shocker. I can dream).

And, on the heels of Lil E. Tee, another tip of the hat to Alysheba. What a horse.

01 Apr 2009 11:55 AM
Ranagulzion

April fool prank? or are you serious? This is no joke, although "Willy" birthday is "tom fool's day" he has only a small trace of Tom Fool back six generations through Majestic Light's broodmare sire Buckpasser in his sire line.  He too is the real deal and we shall see in both the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby.  

Steve at this point we should be narrowing down the Derby Dozen to the Magnificent Seven (the top seven 3YOs nominated and capable of winning the Derby irrespective of what their connections are saying at this point).  Call me a dreamer but barring injury I like to assume that the Derby fever epidemic prevails until I see the final list of declared starters.  You see sometimes the connections preferring to avoid the pressure or limelight for various reason and in the final analysis, action speaks louder than words.  So here goes:  Quality Road, Big Drama, Rachel Alexandra, I Want Revenge, Win Willy, The Pamplemousse and Friesan Fire.  Chocolate Candy, Old Fashioned and Pioneer Of The Nile could add some spice.

Wouldn't that be a dream field with all the ingredients for a ferocious pace, tactical stalking and a cavalry charge to the wire?

Like John Lennon sang in "Imagine" "you may call me a dreamer but I'm not the only one..."  Great article Steve.

01 Apr 2009 12:04 PM
Kajam

I thought we'd see the first mention of Lord Justice.  If Pletcher goes at HAW or even AQU (this Saturday), he'd be a threat to steal.  This horse appears to be putting things together at the right time.  

01 Apr 2009 12:08 PM
WannaHaveATripleCrownWinner

This year the crop of 3-year olds seems to be quite impressive. Right now, I love Quality Road as my top horse for the Derby. Yes, he is by Elusive Quality(who is most known as being a sprinter) but look Smarty Jones almost won the Triple Crown if it hadn't been for the Zito-trained Birdstone. I can still remember that day like it was yesterday. I was so mad and in tears somewhat because Smarty was this close. Quality Road's dam who is by Strawberry Road(remember Vindication?)though I think will give this colt the stamina to go the distance. I can not wait to see how far this colt can run. I also love I Want Revenge, Friesan Fire(especially because he is by my favorite horse of all time, A.P Indy) and Pioneer Of The Nile and Dunkirk is probably on that list too because his mom was Secret Status(a Kentucky Oaks winner who is by none other than A.P Indy).

01 Apr 2009 12:12 PM
Bill

Your point about the come one, come all nature of Derby's past is a good one.  In Gallant Fox's Day or Whirlaway's day I wonder how many serious legit contenders were in the fields they faced?  It kind of puts recent Derby's in whole different light.  Think of Big Brown stuck out in the 20 hole not just beating a select field, but trouncing them!  It makes you wonder whether anybody ever ran a better Derby?

01 Apr 2009 12:26 PM
Draynay

This year many are claiming that there are a lot of Derby challengers but the pool is not as deep as many think.  Pioneer of the Nile has yet to break 100 and is simply not fast enough and the Pamplemousse is a one dimension horse so they can both be tossed.  Old Fashioned has distance limitations and Friesan Fire is trying to train to the Derby from 7 weeks out... toss them both.  Well who does that leave? I Want Revenge and Imperial Council are the only two remaining and after the Wood we will know if one of them has a chance at beating Quality Road.  One of them will have to show an awful lot for this Derby not to be the Quality Road show.  Sure many of you have your favorites but you really can't make a case for them against the back to back performances by Quality Road.  He has beaten some very good horses and now is the time to look at the amazing talent instead of trying to look past it.

Get ready for the Quality Road Show.

01 Apr 2009 12:52 PM
Teaser

Quality Road beat some very good Horses? Name one.

01 Apr 2009 1:33 PM
amph44

Draynay what if that one dimension is good enough to win. Breaking out and getting the lead and never looking back. The mousse baby!

01 Apr 2009 1:34 PM
For Big Red

TO BILL: About Big Brown, you wrote, "It makes you wonder whether anybody ever ran a better Derby?"

Suppose a horse ran the Kentucky Derby with these quarter-mile fractions:

0:25 1/5

0:24

0:23 4/5

0:23 2/5

0:23

Final time: 1:59 2/5

Where would you rank such a Derby effort?

01 Apr 2009 1:57 PM
For Big Red

TO STEVE: Thanks for shining a spotlight on some of the lesser known horses on the Derby trail. Not everyone is a chalk player, after all. :)

01 Apr 2009 1:59 PM
Greg J.

The Pamplemousse, Friesan Fire, Win Willy will be the winning Trifecta for the Derby, Still trying to figure out the specific order though....Mark it Down!!!

(Great Piece, Steve)

01 Apr 2009 2:26 PM
Don

You say Win Willy will win the Derby. But you have him ranked # 11. Whats with that? Also you have Old Fashioned ranked # 7 and Win Willy beat him. Steve, what are you smoking ? Don't understand your thinking.

01 Apr 2009 2:30 PM
For Big Red

TO DRAYNAY: You know I was in your corner about QR leading up to the Florida Derby, but now I'd offer you one bit of caution. This year the various Derby preps have been (will be) run on radically different racing surfaces. Although Beyer figures attempt to provide some means of leveling out races on different surfaces, calculating and using Beyers is not a science. There's going to be no direct, level, objective way to compare races run on the ultra-fast Gulfstream surface to synthetic surfaces, or those surfaces to the sloppy Fair Grounds track, or to the more average dirt tracks in New York and Arkansas, let alone the Dubai track.

I'm going to be using several handicapping factors to narrow down my picks by Derby day, and am not closing my mind to any of the contenders yet.

As mentioned, I start with pedigree. If I were to go only by pedigree, Friesan Fire would be my pick hands down. I'm not concerned that he's being trained up to the Derby, but am concerned that there have been no reported works for him since the Louisiana Derby nearly three weeks ago. Also, Larry Jones is at Oaklawn concentrating on getting Old Fashioned ready for his next race. FF is at Keeneland. The few available reports are that he's doing very well, but I wish I could obtain reports about how he's galloping, how far and how often, etc. When they finally start working him again, I'm going to watch his work tab closely.

Old Fashioned had a sharp work yesterday on a muddy track, so he appears to be coming up to his next race in good order.

In the meantime, there are still several prep races to run, so I won't be jumping on any bandwagons just yet. I want to evaluate the results of all of the preps first.

As for QR, I do like him. You may recall that I wrote a pedigree synopsis for him to counter the notion that he might not get the KD distance. Although his pedigree does tilt toward speed, it has plenty of stamina influences also. Plus QR is a grandson of Gone West and Strawberry Road, with Secretariat, Bowl of Flowers and Alydar further back. All nostalgic reasons for me to like QR.

01 Apr 2009 2:32 PM
amph44

Win willy is a show horse at best with so much speeed up front he will be closing but it will be too late since the mousse will be rocking and rolling!

01 Apr 2009 2:38 PM
Draynay

For Big Red... I would say that was an amazing performance and would rank 2nd best all time behind Big Brown going from the 20 post going 4 wide all the way around AND beating every colt in the race by 10 or more lengths.

Teaser.... you are kidding right ? Break Water Edison, Beethoven, Captain Candy Man Can, This Ones for Phil, Theregoesjojo, and Dunkirk.  Those are the very good horses Quality Road has already beaten.

01 Apr 2009 3:04 PM
For Big Red

TO GREG J.: For what it's worth, Mike Brunker of NBC Sports is reporting that some clockers are not impressed with the way The Pamplemousse is training.

01 Apr 2009 3:16 PM
Karine

Just once I'd like to hear someone say that they don't know who's going to win the derby.

I'm going to wait until the preps are done and we have a set field before I make up my mind.

01 Apr 2009 3:26 PM
Bill

For Big Red,  I'd rank that one right up there with Big Brown's.  You're referring to Secretariat's Derby, right?  No question about it, that was one of the best ever.  He didn't start from the 20 hole and not all the horses he beat belonged in the race, but I guess you could say the same about the Derby's run in the recent past even with the earnings criteria for entrance in play.  

01 Apr 2009 3:45 PM
Greg J.

Don, You should read the article Steve wrote before posting about him saying Win Willy will win, Karine, Of course I don't know who will win the derby right now, for that matter, Nobody knows until it is over, lol, But I have liked Friesan Fire & The Pamplemousse since Day one, Yes, I know there are alot of prep races to see, but going by what I think I know, Their Pedigrees, and my gut, I am sticking to those two, Plus I just threw Win Willy in there because he is a curious wildcard and the derby NEVER goes as expected(At least not the top three spots)...

01 Apr 2009 5:00 PM
Barbara

Pioneerof the Nile is bringing a bunny to the party with the grapefruit;)  This should be fun.

01 Apr 2009 5:21 PM
GunBow

The Pamplemousse had apparently not been training well after the Sham. However, his last move was huge, 3 furlongs in sub-35. Canani made sure he's sharp and ready to roll early. I still think distance is some concern, although he already has won at 9 furlongs. He will be meeting much better distance horses, Pioneer' + Chocolate', than Take the Points. The Kentucky Derby will be another eighth of a mile and on dirt.

Great Santa Anita Derby coming up. Right now, The Grapefruit is my pick, given what should be a huge pace advatange. I would not be surprised, however, if Pioneer  lays closer to him than most think, and then wears him down in the stretch.

01 Apr 2009 5:42 PM
GunBow

Big Brown's Derby is not in my top 10 of all-time. Last year's field was not strong, and ranks down with the 92', 93',99', and 05' fields as the worst in the last 20 years.  Big Brown was a fantastic horse, and deserving champion 3 year old. What was so impressive about him, is that he accomplished such great feats so early in his career. However, I do not rate him a great, and do not think he was one of the top 5 horses of this decade. That's just my opinion.

01 Apr 2009 5:47 PM
GunBow

Dray,

The Gulfstream track was NOT fast the entire meet (not producing fast times). The track started to speed up Thursday and Friday, so Saturday was not the first day the track was that fast (Pletcher should have recognized that and had no reason to complain).

Before last week, almost every 9 furlong race was run in 1:50 or over. Albertus Maximus won the Grade 1 Donn in 1:50 and 4, yet earned the same Beyer (103) as Quality Road. Clearly, Gulfstream was much faster (about 3 seconds) this past Saturday than on Donn day. One of the few horses to run under 1:50 before this past week was It's a Bird.  It's a Bird won the $1 million Sunshine Millions Classic in 1:49 and 1, with a 107 Beyer.

Although Gulfstream had not been producing wicked times before last week, it had been speed favoring most of the meet. While the track was "slow" most of the meet (producing slow times), it had favored speed horses. Again, this is something Pletcher should have known.

01 Apr 2009 6:07 PM
TW

A Keeneland handicapping blog,

handicappinghorseraces.blogspot.com

01 Apr 2009 6:21 PM
amph44

I guess the SA derby will put the california horses to the test. The mousse is a monster and hasnt been challenged yet once he does he will turn it up into high gear and will be the talk of the weekend just like quality road was a week ago! The wood is a very interesting race and should pay attention to WW and IWR the rest of the horses are worthless!

01 Apr 2009 6:22 PM
Karen2

Karine: I will know who will win the derby as soon as it is over ;)

I completely agree with your statement. Anything can happen in horse racing. We should count them all in as contenders. I do have a special favorite this year and I am not sure why but I really like the Pamp. Something about him..can't quite put my finger on it. I think it is a number of things in one package. The big question is will he like the dirt? IWR sure liked it.  If the Pamp can do over dirt what he has done over synthetic I really think the rest of the field could be in trouble. But that remains to be seen. Plus, it depends on who is on top of their game on derby day and who feels like running. Sometimes its just that simple.

01 Apr 2009 6:29 PM
Steve Haskin

Don, you obviously never heard of April Fools Day or didnt read the very first line of the story, or even the first paragraph. April Fools Day happens one day year on April 1. Ask someone to explain it.

01 Apr 2009 6:46 PM
KAT

The bunny is down close to the rail.  He'll have an advantage (I would guess) on getting to the lead.  Wonder if he will pull any of those other horses out with him?  It will be interesting to see how AS handles it.  If PM can relax off the lead, breaking from the outside like that could be a blessing.  Not unlike BB in the Derby.  He can pick his trip.  I would love to see a stalking grapefruit!!!

01 Apr 2009 6:54 PM
Draynay

Gunbow... you think its the track ALL you want.  Its the horse. The horse set the record not the track.  Quality Road is in the book not the track !!!

Warning !!! Warning !!! You need to pay attention to the speedster in the race in the Santa Anita and I am not talking about the Pamplemousse.  Z Day is very very fast and may change the SA Derby completely.  Ask Imperial Council just how fast Z Day is....  look for an upset win by Mr. Hot Stuff with Pioneer of the Nile finishing the exacta.

01 Apr 2009 6:59 PM
For Big Red

TO DRAYNAY AND BILL: "2nd best Derby behind Big Brown?" "Rank that one right up there with Big Brown?" "One of the best ever?" "Didn't start from the 20 hole and not all the horses he beat belonged in the race?" Hmmmm...the only reason I'm responding to your assertions is that you both are serious.

You are entitled to your opinions, of course, but I hope both of you do realize the import of those 1973 Derby quarter-mile fractions (each one was faster that the previous one). If you don't, that tells me all I'd ever need to know about your handicapping abilities.

We've already established through long discussion about Dunkirk that going wide to win a race is not unusual. Happens pretty much every day somewhere; very common in grass races. And Big Brown's Derby-winning time was average. Twenty Grand, in 1935, was the first to win the Derby in under 2:02. His time was the same as Big Brown's, 2:01 4/5. It has since been equaled or bettered by many Derby winners, and is not even in the top 10 fastest derbies.

The rule of thumb is that 1/5 of a second equals one length. Secretariat would have beaten Big Brown by eight lengths. At least 19 horses would have also beaten Big Brown by a length or more, and at least five would have finished in a dead heat with him. So how you can put Big Brown's Derby at the top has me scratching my head.

By the way, regarding the slight that not all horses "belonged" in the race, 1973 actually had one of the highest-quality Derby fields ever. Today, 13 seems like a small field, but it included two whose Hall-of-Fame careers would produce an incredible five Horse of the Year titles (Secretariat, 2, and Forego, 3) and 13 Eclipse awards overall between them. The race also had the colt who would become 1973's champion sprinter. It had the Santa Anita Derby winner. The horse who won the Flamingo Stakes (then an important KD prep) and Ohio Derby. The Fountain of Youth winner. The Florida Derby winner. The Blue Grass Stakes winner. The Wood Memorial winner. And, for good measure, the horse who finished 3rd in the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby.

Just an aside...if the track comes up fast this year, 2009's group of 3-yr-olds may produce a very fast Derby. Secretariat's Derby record has stood for 35 years, and I assume it will be broken some day. But those 35 years have only added to the luster of the 1973 Kentucky Derby. I'm just amazed anyone would knock that field.

01 Apr 2009 7:15 PM
amph44

Draynay why are you hatting on the mousse. You love QR and he is a great horse but I think its going to come down between the mousee and IWR in the derby. IWR can run all day and then win willy will round out the show beat. Not sure what to think about FF 7 weeks off is not good!

01 Apr 2009 7:32 PM
For Big Red

Ooooo...the sprinter Z Day was entered as a rabbit to take on The Pamplemousse early for Pioneerof the Nile. Will their owner, Ahmed Zayat, be criticized like Todd Pletcher was before the Florida Derby?

Then, to add even a bit more spice to our Southern California brew, there's a bit of trash talking going on between Baffert and Canani about their horses. LOL!

01 Apr 2009 7:35 PM
Justine

@ For Big Red

I can't  remember, was Mr. Prospector in the field? All I remember was reading that pushing him for the Derby probably ruined his racing career.

My dream scenario is Pioneer reeling in the Mousse when Mr. Hot Stuff blows by them and Candy comes rushing up for an unfortunate fourth in the Santa Anita Derby. If that actually plays out in front of me this Saturday I will eat my proverbial hat.

01 Apr 2009 7:44 PM
Matthew W

Dray I love ya! Your reasonimg is simple but fairly sound....Still I got ta see it for myself about Quality Road---One thing I love is his race spacing for Kentucky...also love Imp Council/I Want Revenge at Belmont...am leaning towards Pioneerof The Nile/Mr Hot Stuff box at SA...just think it's more of a closers track...loved Big Brown's Derby...loved Bid's...loved Spend A Buck's....Secretariat's Derby trumps them all....

01 Apr 2009 8:21 PM
joe

Steve, How 'bout a horse who didn't belong in the Derby:  Count Turf, the 1951 winner!  Peter Chew's great book on the Derby's first 100 years has the improbable story of Count Fleet's son, his "washed up" jocky Conn McCreary, the trainer who refused to make the Derby trip, and Turf's colorful owner-pressed into service as a trainer in training!  Great story and a great read.  I'm also enjoying your tales from the TC trail.

01 Apr 2009 8:25 PM
Matthew W

FOR BIG RED--Also Ancient Title and Stop The Music and Linda's Chief and Groshawk and Mr Prospector and Dahlia were in that crop! I'm pretty sure Forego went 57 flat before The Derby and I think I may have bet him along with Sham....That was by far the best Derby ever and one of if not the greatest 1 1/4 race ever run!....Sceptre laments Forego would have beaten Red had they met years later...hey what? Red raced all year that season, beat them all, turf or dirt or older--he was so good the (stunning) losses were just tossed out as "flukes"---just like I completely tossed Big Brown's Belmont---you just know greatness when you see it....

01 Apr 2009 8:31 PM
Shamfan49

I would like to add to For Big Red's excellent comments posted above that another horse entered in the '73 Derby, Sham, placed that day and also in the Preakness. He served as Secretariat's "rabbit" in that truly awesome Belmont. However, it's probably unfair to Sham's memory to dismiss him as a mere rabbit, as his trainer, Pancho Martin, had instructed his jockey, Laffit Pincay, to challenge the son of Bold Ruler right from the start. Like Secretariat, Sham was a carrier of the Princequillo 'large-heart' gene. After his death, it was learned that his heart was 2nd in size only to his rival's of those that had been weighed through that time. Using the formula that 1/5 of a second equals a length, Sham ran the second fastest Derby in history. When I watch replays of that Belmont, it breaks my heart to watch Sham's legs visibly turn to mush. He left everything he had on the track that day in a heart busting effort to derail that "tremendous machine".

On a lighter note, during a recent visit to Louisville, I stopped in a fine local establishment to replenish my dwindling bourbon supply. My eye was attracted by a display of Kentucky Derby themed cups which celebrated Derby runners since Aristides captured the very first. But instead of yet one more list of winners, it featured the horses that had finished last in each running of America's Race. According to this cup, Granville finished last in 1936 and Groovy last in 1986. In 1989, a horse dear to fans of Illinois racing, the recently deceased Western Playboy, carried the red lantern (a Tour de France term for the rider bringing up the rear). Graeme Hall was last in 2000, Keats in 2001, High Limit in 2005, Keyed Entry in 2006, Cowtown Cat in 2007 and Monba last year. Gold Mine was definitely misnamed way back in 1875.

I only bought two of the cups and there were many left on the shelf, but I have no idea where that shop is other than my daughter lives in nearby St. Matthews and she drove.

01 Apr 2009 8:48 PM
For Big Red

TO JUSTINE: Mr. Prospector wasn't in the 1973 Derby field. He was 2nd in the Derby Trial Stakes that year, won the Gravesend and Whirlaway Handicaps in 1974, and retired in 1975, I believe.

The 1970 foal crop was amazing, wasn't it. From this crop came Secretariat, Forego, Mr. Prospector, Sham, Ancient Title, Stop The Music, Desert Vixen, Dahlia, Allez France, La Prevoyante, and Bel Sheba (dam of Alysheba).

BTW, a little-known factoid about 1970: Secretariat was the first Triple Crown winner since Citation in 1948. Citation died August 8, 1970, a little over four months after Secretariat was born on March 30th.

01 Apr 2009 8:51 PM
Shamfan49

Justine,

Mr. Prospector was not entered in the 1973 Derby. He did belong to that year's crop of 3 year olds.

01 Apr 2009 8:53 PM
Draynay

For Big Red... Sham finished right behind Secretariat in the Derby... that is all I need to know because Sham was a nobody.  Yes Sham won the Santa Anita but that is it...never won another race.  Like I said before Tale of Ekati has accomplished more.  The fact that a horse named Sham finished right behind Secretariat on a track that was juiced that day in record time means little. Sham was an average horse that Secretariat beat by a length and a half.  Very good Derby but not as good as Big Brown.

01 Apr 2009 8:55 PM
Matthew W

Justine I agree Mr Hot Stuff is gonna be coming late in SA Derby---But let's face it, Cali horses have never faced the kickback/raced on dirt! They are at a huge disadvantage--it's like playing a Euro horse--very risky! I Want Revenge will have to go straight to the lead in The Wood--or else he'll get HIS first taste of kickback...But Mr Hot Stuff/Pioneerof The Nile will be my exacta box this Sat...and The Mousse will be my "bounce back" Ky Derby guy!! Ca Ching!

01 Apr 2009 8:56 PM
olivia

everyone thought winwilly was a fluke, oh he joust got lucky, well i think hes the real deal, and hell improve, great pedigree and just a powerhouse of a horse=] he sin my derby dozen.

oh and steve i've liked square eddie since forever, and i went on doug o'neill racing and hes had some works, is there any chance of him amkiing it to the derby? i love him and wanted him to take the triple crown1!!1=]

01 Apr 2009 8:56 PM
foregofan

dray, since you know so much about GP did they recently renovate the track?   If QR was the only fast time of the day that would be different. I admit 1:47 on anything is fast and impressive. I just do not think the quality of horses in FL are good this year. I think everyone will find out the LA crop was better than people think. Fast times just don't happen that often at FG. I like horses who grind it out and find a way to win. It seems to me if a maiden won the FL derby you would say he was the next KY winner.

01 Apr 2009 9:05 PM
Dreamer's Mom

As a trainer I don't really care about "bullet works".  So what if the Mousse isn't burning up the track in training?  His time only matters on race day.  If he's happy and healthy, let him go for a Sunday drive.

General Quarters is one of the feel-good stories this year so I am hoping for a good out.  At least a safe, solid trip.

Gee, have I shown my hand?  Hope springs eternal, especially when a gray or two is in the mix.  Most of the handicapping gets thrown out on Derby day anyway.  No one can tell how any of them will handle a 20 horse field.  You hope for the best as a trainer and then turn them loose, breath held and fingers crossed.  These horses are still babies and you never know how they will react to 20 and God only knows how many at the track and on the in-field.  My advice?  Bet $2 to win on all of them and when "your" horse comes in you look like a genius!  That is, as long as you keep your strategy to yourself!

01 Apr 2009 9:23 PM
Bill

To For Big Red,

I don't buy the following reasoning: The rule of thumb is that 1/5 of a second equals one length. Secretariat would have beaten Big Brown by eight lengths. At least 19 horses would have also beaten Big Brown by a length or more, and at least five would have finished in a dead heat with him.

Since the two races occurred 35 years apart [rather than on the same day at CD] how can say with the least degree of certainty how Big Brown would have done against the field Secretariat faced?  Impossible. You think that by relying on raw times or speed figures you can project the outcome of a hypothetical race?  What value can one put on post position?  How much was Big Brown disadvantaged by the 20 hole?  We don't know and never will. It's a fools game to try to compare performances which occurred so far apart in time.  Would Man 'o War have been able to compete with Secretariat?  Who knows?  There's no definitive way of knowing whether horse A can beat horse B without them actually competing against each other.  I am well aware of Secretariat's incredible performance in the Derby and what it means to run each successive quarter faster than the last.  I'm not sure any horse has ever done it since.  But, I also know that what Big Brown did was extraordinary and something we may not see again.  Incidentally, do you really think Shecky Green, Warbucks, Gold Bag and a few others belonged in that Derby?  Why Shecky Greene was ever entered in the Derby is beyond comprehension.

01 Apr 2009 9:36 PM
GunBow

Dray,

I've posted many times my admiration for Quality Road, Dunkirk, Big Drama, and This Ones For Phil. I never said it wasnt about the horses. I was responding to your comment that Gulfstream has been playing fast all meet, which is just not true. The track was very fast Saturday, and that did make it easier to set records; this is just basic reasoning. But you are right, the horses had to go out there are run, and  Quality Road and Big Drama/This One For Phil were the only horses on the card to go out and set track records. It's not like I'm saying the track records should have an asterisk. Quality Road and Big Drama deserve those records, although I'm not sure Big Drama will get to keep his.

By the way, how do you and others feel about Bob Black Jack's 6 furlong track record at Santa Anita- 1:06 and 2. Is that actually a North American record on dirt/synthetic? Was that ALL the horse? Did the track have ANYTHING to do with it? I remember there being quite alot of anger about the Santa Anita Pro-Ride last year, and the crazy times it was producing. By the way, Bob Black Jack ran that time in January of his 3 year old season.  He's a good sprinter, but that's really fast. Also last year, 3 year old fillies ran 7 furlongs in under 1:20, breaking Spectacular Bid's 28 year old track record. Was it ALL the horses?

How about Najran? He tied Dr.Fager's world record for a mile on dirt, winning the 03' Westchester in 1:32 and 1? The track had nothing to do with that? Najran was as good as Dr.Fager?

Beyer speed figures, Thoroughgraph numbers, Ragozin sheets, all make alot of money under the belief that track surfaces change; they are quicker some days than others. It's called Track Variance.

One would think Bob Black Jack's Beyer speed figure would be enormous for running so fast. While the 109 he was assigned for the race is nice, it is below the 115-120 Beyers top sprinters typically run. How about the Beyer for those 3 year old fillies that ran faster than Spectacular Bid? They received a Beyer of 92. That's it. On the other hand, Spectacular Bid ran Beyers consistently in the 120s (or 15-20 lengths faster than those 3 year old fillies). Clearly, the Beyer crew felt the speed of the Santa Anita Pro-Ride had something to do with those times.

01 Apr 2009 10:07 PM
foregofan

dray, did I read the word "juiced" in your comment? never thought I would see the day that you would believe in that

01 Apr 2009 10:08 PM
Draynay

Foregofan... I heard all of this garbage last year.  California horses this California horses that.  The competition out there is just plain bad and 4 and 5 horse fields doesn't get you ready for the 20 seen on Derby Day.  Like it or not Quality Road is your winner.  His last two races were fantastic and he is only going to improve running two turns again so call it a day.  Everyone is running for second... now the only question is who will win the Oak ???

01 Apr 2009 10:14 PM
Phil McSween

Can't argue with Big Red's final running time....but when want to talk about spectacular Derby runs, you only need go back to 2007 when the fabulous Street Sense rallied from 19 to 1st under a brilliant ride by Calvin Bo-rail.   Now before the naysayers say Street Sense took advantage of a so called 'rail bias' at Churchill...i say NONSENSE.    Any horse that rallies gamely (and with some racing luck) to win going a mile and a quarter and beating the equally unlucky highest earning horse of all time in Curlin, is a superstar who is right near the top of the list of Great Derby wins ever.

01 Apr 2009 10:43 PM
Don

Steve

Your right, I did not read your article. Had no interest in what you have to say about all the horses. Was only going by the Blog head line. "Hangin with Haskin: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby".

I guess that I should read every article to see if it's an April Fools Joke.

So why do you have Old Fashioned picked #7 and Win Willy #11. Remember, Win Willy blew past Old Fashioned in that race.

01 Apr 2009 11:29 PM
ElusiveQuality8

I'm a fan of QR, but this process is far from over.  Look for three to four horses emerge (like the Silver Charm, Free House and Captain Bodgit year).  

02 Apr 2009 12:06 AM
helsbelles

GunBow, just a correction... when Bob Black Jack set the new world record for 6 furlongs in the Sunshine Millions Dash in January 2008 (which was the day that Go Between set a new SA track record in the SM Classic), the Santa Anita surface was not yet Pro-Ride, it was the Cushion Track that had been radically scraped down.  So, it wasn't the Pro-Ride that was causing those crazy times, it was the Cushion Track that ultimately was scraped down to the point where chunks of the asphalt base were coming up and hitting horse and rider in the face... good times.  Shamfan: speaking of glasses, I found a Kentucky Derby 113 mint julep glass in a second hand store.  It lists all the Kentucky Derby winners adjacent to the year, starting with 1875 Aristedes and ending with 1987 ?.  It's even more special to me now that Alysheba has passed.

02 Apr 2009 2:16 AM
Coldfacts

Steve, I respect your knowledge but I am baffled at the rankings in your latest Derby Dozen. How can I Want Revenge and Pioneerof The Nile be ranked above Quality Road. If the colts were to be evaluated by their last races, then QR has to be #1. If they are to be evaluated based on body of work, then QR has to be #1. Let’s start with POTN. His last three victories though recorded in graded races were not overpowering. In fact, if the performance of Papa Clem in the LA Derby was to be used as a measure, then POTN is average at best. His last victory was workman like against sub-par company and was not consistent with his bullet works. I Want Revenge who could not beat POTN, tracked slow fractions in the Gotham and exploded for a decisive victory. I do not believe QR would record 48 seconds for a half mile running backwards. QR has won two graded races impressively with 100 plus beyer and has far superior speed figures to those of your top two.  IWR has only one graded victory against a sub-par bunch. Both  POTN and IWR would have to be ridden to keep pace in a race with a 45 seconds half mile and consequently would be one pace in the drive for home.  Quality Road should be #1

QR was sired by a grandson of Mr. Prospector. His grandsons are the most successful derby sires around. They have sired the winners of 3 of the last six derbies and 5 of the last 13. Both Regal Ransom and your #6 ranked Desert Party were sire by grandson of Mr. Prospector. IWR is from the Bold Ruler line that has not featured in a derby victory in 24 years. POTN was sired by a great grandson of Mr. Prospector. No great grandson of the great stallion has sire a derby winner to date and judging from the performances of Quality Road, Regal Ransom and Desert Party the grandsons seem poise to continue their dominance. These facts may mean nothing to you Steve but the records do not lie.

Regal Ransom who is at a stage of rapid improvement should at lease be in your dozen. He is a May 24 colt that ran seven furlongs in 1:22 plus at 2yrs 4mnths. Curlin ran 1:22 and change as a 3YR. Regal Ransom dam sire Red Ransom by Roberto is also the sire of the second dam of the great Makybe Diva. This colt has more speed and stamina than most on you list and would certainly pace IWR and POTN to sickness if allowed an uncontested lead as displayed in the UAE Derby..

Dunkirk at #4 defies logic. How is he going to make the Derby board? Firstly, he will need more that 5 week to properly recover from the beating he took from QR. Secondly, with his lack of pace; it is unlikely he will be able to find a clear path in a 20 horse derby field to launch a winning run. Street Sense came from way back but he was press button and when asked covered ground much faster than Dunkirk has so far. Dunkirk never gets to the leaders on his bit, he has to be ridden to get on terms and that not a good sign. I think it is worth noting that Stormello ran his heart out against Scatt Daddy in the 2006 FL Derby and never won a race after. Sharp Humor ran his heart against Barbaro and never won a race after. Dunkirk had issues as a 2YO and the FL Derby was exactly what he didn’t need.

He was a tired colt after the race compared to your #12 ranked colt Hold Me Back. His rider had a difficult task pulling him up after the Lanes End. He is a Big Lanky colt that would have recorded a faster time than that of Hard Spun if not for his over land rout to victory because of his post and the trouble he encountered going into the first turn. Based on the manner of his victory in the Lanes End, he should be ranked higher. He is from the Storm Cat sire line that is yet to get on the derby board and is overdue. HMB’s unraced dam was sired by Unbridled’s Song. With the number of Unbridled’s Song colts on the derby tail, wouldn’t be ironic if he turns out to be broodmare sire of the derby winner.

The rest of your dozen is Ok but I believe Musket Man merits the spot occupied by Imperial Council. His victory in the Tampa Bay Derby has to rank in the top four for the year. I know I will probably not find anyone else to endorse this view but I encourage all posters to review the race. His rider had to steady him two to three times because of traffic while the leaders were full blast upfront. He then had to swing him wide for a stretch run and when he changed his lead he exploded for the victory. Only exceptional horses overcome such adversities and win. His problem filled final time of 1:43.67 on the deep TB track was just as good as that (1:42..65) recorded by problem free run away Gotham winner I Want Revenge and he is ranked #2. This is a serious horse that is ignored at ones peril.

02 Apr 2009 2:30 AM
mikefrommichigan

Mafaaz.  enough said.

02 Apr 2009 6:22 AM
Greg J.

Big Red, Comments Spot On!, Also, If anyone wants an incredibly usefull tool, Click on link(A little confusing), Great Tool for pace parameters for Derby contenders in 2009 ....

www.chef-de-race.com/.../2009_derby_pace_parameters.htm

Also, You can find alot of other Stats by going to Main Section, Enjoy....

02 Apr 2009 10:04 AM
Matthew W

Dray the Derby track was s"souped up" in '73 for Big Red/Sham? Says you! Secretariat came from LAST place and Sham came from 3rd or 4th---in contrast to your newest "superhorse" Quality Road, The Florida Derby Day card had NO closers coming close to the winners circle! Last Sat closers were DOA at the starting gate! Maybe thirty years from now a future Dray will be blogging about how Big Brown won less gr 1's than Lava Man and retired because he threw a quarter! I'll take Big Brown over Lava Man I'll take Sham over your Col John/Tale Of Ekati any day but that's why they call it Horse Racing!

02 Apr 2009 10:19 AM
Bill

To Coldfacts,  Musket Man figured to run a good race as it was his third off a layoff and he also had a nice pp and pace scenario. Moreover, he was a really nice overlay in the betting.  Now, I want to see what he will do in his next start.  Only really good horses improve in their fourth race off the layoff.  Let's see if he's up to bigger challenges.  I'm always leery of horses who call Tampa Bay home as it is a quirky track as Gulfstream shippers find out on a daily basis.

02 Apr 2009 10:26 AM
amph44

Darnay Cant wait for sunday when you say that the mousse got lucky and wont be a factor in the derby after he dusts these flunkies on saturday!

02 Apr 2009 10:30 AM
Matthew W

Bill that's why I don't go by times so much--Big Brown ran into a homestretch headwind for more than 1/2 of the Derby...'Bid ran on a track that had horses going 1:38 miles...racing has always been subjective...I just wish they had patched Big Brown's hooz/turned him out/then brought him back cuz years from now they'll remember 'Bid and Big Red but Brownie will slow fade into the background like Candy Ride/Ghostzapper/Sham--horses that were brilliant but too lightly raced....

02 Apr 2009 10:32 AM
Karen2

Apparantly no one saw IWR run??? How can you possibly argue that he belongs. The horse ran a spectacular race.  I have mad love for the Pamp. He put in a sharp work and I am looking forward to more from him. He is just this big goofy, fun loving, naturally gifted, big strided, high cruising speed colt... Go Pamp!!!

02 Apr 2009 10:50 AM
mike rullo

steve,

would you take the money for win willy that was offered??

I would haved!

02 Apr 2009 11:10 AM
bill

Good points, Matthew.  Trying to compare races run at different times even on the same day at the same track is a vexing proposition due to changes in climatic conditions, harrowing of the racetrack, etc.  I only wish that speed and pace figures were the answer...

02 Apr 2009 11:25 AM
Karen in Texas

"Catchy" title, Steve! Should automatically make someone want to read more....Lot's to learn from this weekend's races!

02 Apr 2009 11:38 AM
Matthew W

Karen2 I too am excited by The Pamp! I wish they had shipped him to Florida for his Derby prep as I feel he's "up against it" in SA Derby---there's just too much good stuff gonna be closing in on him on that pro-ride...Gosh if he wins Sat he's my Derby guy all the way--I love his trainer/jock combo--BOTH of whom are heving great years...This is a horse that does everything on his own/tries very hard/wants to win! I am very concerned about his front leg action and hope to see him at his best! So far, and it's very early to say, the 2006 crop looks like a real good one! Lots of speed horses but, Karen, my brother pointed out to me years ago, when there's lots of speed, go with the guy who gets the lead---we both seem to think it's The Pamp!

02 Apr 2009 12:00 PM
Travis L

See if I can stir up some new conversation here, Who like's Perfect Song as there 3rd or 4th choice in the Kentucky Derby not the Illinios Derby because after he wins he be heading to Kentucky. Should be a great race between him and the Musket.

02 Apr 2009 12:04 PM
Matthew W

2009 SA Derby looks strong! Dinard/Best Pal/Sea Cadet was strong.....Free House/Silver Charm was great...Snow Chief/Ferdinand represented....Sham/Linda's Chief/Groshawk/Ancient Title was pretty solid....Baffert's got the guy to beat/Julio's got the freak/Dorf's got the sleeper/Harty's flying under the radar with a real nice colt....maybe 2009 will rank up there with those others....

02 Apr 2009 12:19 PM
For Big Red

TO DRAYNAY: You wrote, "Sham was a nobody..."

I'm embarrassed for you, Dray. I love your passion and willingness to take a firm stand -- firmer than most professional handicappers. But that one is over the top, even for you.

02 Apr 2009 12:32 PM
nickie

love the pedigree comments, from all and 4bigred and coldfax in particular...still would put Dunkirks' ped up vs any. From where I stand I se both 'Wanna & 'Moose having  ruff Saturday, especially the former...there will be some pace early which 'Council should reverse Gotham order, and I wouldn't toss 'Bernie oughta the mix just yet...barn is capable, and has put him rite back out there after baffling performance. If the 'Moose wins from his spot, I will toast Canani and buy him a drink at Siros if he ever ventures to the Adirondacks in August.

02 Apr 2009 12:40 PM
For Big Red

TO BILL: You are absolutely right that it's difficult to compare horses from different eras. However, the '1/5th = a length' rule of thumb is the way it's been done since practically forever. Also, handicapping is all about comparing differences in horses, tracks, races, times, jockeys, trainers, etc.

You need to understand...I'm not disrespecting Big Brown. For me, it's all about the horses, first, last and always. I wouldn't disrespect the cheapest claimer at "Podunk Downs," because I love the horses. They don't ask to run these races so we can be entertained and occasionally make some money.

In any case, as already noted, you are entitled to your opinion. If you want to think Big Brown's Derby was the best ever, who am I to try to argue you out of it. By any objective measure, you're wrong, but objective measures are not the sum total of what makes us humans believe the things we do. :)

02 Apr 2009 12:47 PM
Tiznowbaby

Mike Rullo, I know that you asked Steve and not me, but your question made me ask myself what I would do. If I needed the money, I'd sell at least a piece of him. If I was having a ball and on the ride of my life and didn't need the money, I wouldn't sell any of him unless it was to a friend or family member so that we could enjoy the experience together. Kind of like how all the offers for Smarty were rejected.

02 Apr 2009 12:53 PM
Greg J.

Dray,

   "Sham was a nobody/Sham was an average horse"....I know ignorance is bliss, but please dray, WAY OFF BASE on that one

"Sham":

Sham had 19 starts,  Won 5 , 5 Seconds, 1 Place and 1 Show. Won $204,808. His heart was the second largest heart ever recorded for a racehorse at 18 lbs. His rival SECRETARIAT had largest heart ever recorded weighing around 22 lbs. At two he ran four times won one, second twice, and third once. he ran second to Secretariat in the ky derby. ran second fastest kentucky derby time of 1:59.4 ,  A horse with a great heart...

02 Apr 2009 12:56 PM
For Big Red

TO TRAVIS L: Well, Perfect Song certainly is bred to get 1 1/4 miles. Not a lot of speed in his pedigree, though.

Speaking strictly from a pedigree perspective, it would be fun to see a Ribot-line horse win the Derby. Perfect Song's sire, Pleasantly Perfect, has only had two crops to race so far. If Perfect Song wins the Illinois Derby, he'll be the first graded stakes winner for his sire.

I was using Brisnet's free PP's, but that turned out to be a promo, and they aren't available now. So I can't look up Perfect Song's race record. Can you tell us more about him, and why you like him for the Illinois Derby?

02 Apr 2009 1:04 PM
Matthew W

Dreamer's Mom I agree with you--every year you always hear about that Derby horse who "isn't training well"...and they run lights out! SMART horses get bored--Tiznow was another guy who loved to race/did not love to train...Alex said "well see on Sat" the other day--he wouldn't change places with anybody right now.....

02 Apr 2009 1:17 PM
Travis L

BIG RED

Just go back to the home page of Bloodhorse scroll down to upcoming stake races, click on the Illinios Derby, from there listed our the horses in Post position, click on Perfect Song, it will go into the horses profile, from there click on racing history, it will show his 3 races, and then from there just click on any three of the races and it will play them, what awesome features we have now to handicap. I got lucky sitting at home and saw his first race, otherwise I wouldn't know who he is.

02 Apr 2009 2:08 PM
Draynay

You guys have to be kidding... stop it... Sham won one big race that is it.  Stop looking back and making something out of nothing.  He never made it past Belmont and won just one big race. 19 starts 5 wins and he is a legend ? What about Tale of Ekati... look what he has done in his career and COMPARE.

02 Apr 2009 2:42 PM
Karen in Texas

Perfect Song's last race looks good--maybe ran "green"? Will be watching him this weekend.

02 Apr 2009 2:45 PM
Ben B

The Derby depends on who's peaking and who is coming up to their best race. I've already seem 3 derby favorites wins and looks like that may have been their best race ever. If that is the case, then they will be going dn hill @ derby time.  We'll know for sure this weekend.

02 Apr 2009 3:07 PM
Karen2

Thanks Matthew W.... nice to know someone else has seen something special with the Pamp! Even if he doesn't win, I just truly enjoy him. I am wondering why they haven't prepped him for the derby on dirt. That will leave a big question mark on him coming in to the derby. What if he doesn't take to the dirt??? Wouldn't that be a question you would want answered before you run in the derby? I'm not a trainer and no expert by any means so maybe there is some science or reasoning behind this but it doesn't seem to make sense. I must have missed that he wasn't training well. I thought he turned in a bullet work.

Dray... I have to go with the majority on this one. How can you possibly call Sham a nobody??? I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and think that you really didn't mean it that way. Right?

02 Apr 2009 3:13 PM
Greg J.

Dray,

    If you make a comment that is completely out of line about "Sham", You can't just say "Drop it , He only won one race".  If you educate yourself on this Horse instead of looking at just wins/losses, You would have never said what you said. A little Education for you:

"Sham":

On March 31, 1973, at Santa Anita Derby (GI), California's main Kentucky Derby prep race, Sham scored a 2 ½ length surprise victory over 1-2 favorite Linda's Chief, under jockey Laffit Pincay Jr. Sham electrified a crowd of 49,564 by equaling the Santa Anita Derby record for the 1 1/8 miles of 1:47, which was set in 1965 by Lucky Debonair. Sham provided Pincay with his third win in the Santa Anita Derby.

   Sham ripped two teeth out on the starting gate at the Kentucky Derby. Although bleeding from the start of the race, he poured his entire heart into the effort. Secretariat won by 2 ½ lengths over Sham, running 1:59 2/5 for the 1 1/4 miles, the first horse to break 2 minutes in the Derby. (The previous record was 2:00, set by Northern Dancer in 1964.) By running 2 1/2 lengths behind Secretariat, Sham ran the distance in either 1:59 4/5 or 2:00. As races were not timed to 1/100th of a second, and nonwinning times were not taken, no exact time is available.

   It wouldn't be until 2001 that another horse won the Derby with a time under 2 minutes. Monarchos won it in 2001 in an electronically timed 1:59.97, which is by convention converted to 1:59 4/5. No other horse, through and including the 2008 running of the Kentucky Derby has ever been below 2 minutes. Sham's Derby time was thus no worse than the fourth fastest time in history (behind Secretariat, Monarchos, and Northern Dancer) and may have been the second fastest time in history.

With a Maryland racing record audience of 61,653 looking on, the mighty chestnut Secretariat struck down rival Sham for the second time in two weeks. With a field of just six, Sham finished second to Secretariat by 2 ½ lengths again.

Odd fact: Sham was given only bottled water before the Preakness Stakes.

Under orders, Pincay was to keep Sham with Secretariat from the start. This worked fine through the first turn and into the backstretch. The gates crashed open, and they surged onto the track as one. Secretariat and Sham soon went to the front. Neck and neck, they began to pull away from the field. They were racing as though this was a sprint race, ticking off quarter-mile fractions in incredible times that were record-breaking in themselves. Neck and neck halfway through the race, Secretariat pulled ahead as Sham equally fell back. Sham ultimately finished last and Secretariat pulled ahead to a win of what was later recorded by 31 lengths.

   While Sham did not race again after the Belmont Stakes he was not retired, contrary to the perception of a Belmont breakdown, until July 1973 while preparing to meet Secretariat again at Saratoga. It was in mid July that a hairline fracture of his leg was detected and he was retired.

Some of his progeny included stakes winners Arewehavingfunyet (f), Jaazeiro, and Safe Play. He died of a heart attack on April 3, 1993 at age 23 and is buried on the Walmac farm.

Record 13 starts: 5-5-1

Earnings $204,808

    Dray, I know this is in the past, but this was a great horse, I believe he helped Secretariat be the horse he was by giving him the Challenge he needed in his races...

    Just a little education for you...

     P.S. You also said "If Freisen Fire wins the La. Derby, I will never Handicap another race", Also another quote from you, "Dunkirk has no shot finishing on the board in the Fla. Derby, If he does, Monkeys will fly out of my ***"

So the comment should have not surprised me....That's all

02 Apr 2009 4:19 PM
Tiznowbaby

Karen2, I look at it this way. Either the Mousse will take to the dirt or he won't. If you prep on dirt and he doesn't like it, then he's missed a G1 race (SA Derby with a fat check) on a surface you know he likes. I think as a front runner he has an advantage over other synthetics moving to dirt. I'm more worried about him getting the distance than disliking dirt.

02 Apr 2009 4:26 PM
For Big Red

TO TRAVIS L: Thanks and much appreciated. Will do. :)

02 Apr 2009 5:08 PM
Alan

Smarty Jones: My trackside call of the 2004 Belmont Stakes spliced together with the actual race footage.  The crowd noise is captured.  What a heartbreaker!

www.youtube.com/watch

02 Apr 2009 5:10 PM
For Big Red

Re the SADerby, the key to the race is Z Day. He's capable of running :21+ first quarters, :44+ halfs, and 1:09+ 6f. No other horse in the race has demonstrated that kind of speed. However, Z Day has only run on dirt, so the big question is...can he run that fast on synth?

If he can, then I like Pioneerof the Nile and Chocolate Candy, in that order.

If Z Day doesn't run that fast on synth, then The Pamplemousse most likely runs away with the race.

So, no straight win bets for me. Playing around with exacta boxes on my three contenders, and also my longshots, who are Take the Points and Gallant Son.

No opinion on the other KD preps next weekend.

02 Apr 2009 5:19 PM
Dreamer's Mom

Karen2-good horses can run on anything. No worries....

02 Apr 2009 8:00 PM
GunBow

helsbelles:

Thank you for the correction. It was Cushion Track. I hope it doesnt take away from the point I was trying to make. Cushion or Pro-Ride, the times were insane and clearly demonstrate how track conditions can affect records. Interestingly, the times for the Cushion Track period are still the track records, even though there was the switch to Pro-Ride.

Sham = Tale of Ekati?

Tale of Ekati is a nice horse and has four solid stakes wins (Wood, Cigar Mile, Jerome, Futurity). However, he has also run some terrible races, and has finished out of the money in half his starts.  In any event, Sham was a much faster horse. I'm not one to put Sham in the Hall of Fame for 4 or 5 performances, but he was a couple of levels above Tale of Ekati. For those 4 or 5 races, Sham was as good as 99.5%+ of the horses that have ever run. I do feel, though, that Sham was not a "great" horse. He gets alot of attention for the 2nds in the Derby and Preakness behind Secretariat, but he really doesnt have a "Hall of Fame" resume.

02 Apr 2009 8:12 PM
Speedball

Official Speed Notice to The Pioneer and The Mousse-Mr Hot Stuff is about to break loose at Santa Anita-BEWARE!!

02 Apr 2009 9:11 PM
GunBow

Andy Beyer has upgraded Quality Road's Beyer for the Florida Derby from 103 to 111.

That seems closer to reality than the 103. I wrote immediately after the Florida Derby that the Beyer should be in the 107-113 range. When the 103 figure came out, I tried to make sense of it, and found that the Beyer team must have used Stately Character as a reference point to get the 103. I did state, however, that I thought 103 seemed too low and that a 107, at the lowest, fit better.

For those who portray quantitative measures like Beyer speed fiures to be completely objective and accurate,  keep this case in mind. It is an inexact science.

03 Apr 2009 2:49 AM
Matthew W

Karen2--I think The Pamplemousse will dirt just fine! He'll be on lead--no kickback for The Pamp! As far as this Sat, I think he's up against it on the Pro Ride---that's a strong group of closers on a closer-friendly track! Better on to Kentucky and take them for a ride! Greg J--I'm practically certain Sham won SA Derby by SIX over Linda's Chief...Sham may not have been "great"...but neither were Unbridled and Monarchos but they, too, ran lights out in The Derby---That is what Sham did--He ran lights out in The Derby--I thought he was a sure winner then Secretariat became legend....

03 Apr 2009 4:43 AM
Bill

I see where Andy Beyer substantially raised the number he gave QR the other day after reviewing all of the mile and an eighth races run that weekend.  If Beyer gets confused re speed figures where does that leave the rest of us???

03 Apr 2009 9:12 AM
Karen2

Bill... Even more confused : )

03 Apr 2009 10:58 AM

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