Haskin's Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors


 
First off, before we get to the Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty works, let’s at least acknowledge both colts for getting this far. The two Mike Repole-owned and Todd Pletcher-trained colts are the only horses from the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I) that are still around. Boys at Tosconova, Rogue Romance, Jaycito, J P's Gusto, and Riveting Reason all have fallen off the Derby trail, and Biondetti, J B's Thunder, and Murjan never even made it to the trail. So, if it wasn’t for these two colts, the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile would have left an ignominious legacy as a springboard to the classics.

As for their works Sunday morning, they went in company over a track that turned sloppy from several hours of heavy thunderstorms. Both worked well and finished up together, coming home their final eighth in :12 2/5, galloping out another eighth in :13 3/5, and then pulling up seven furlongs in 1:28. It was solid work, nothing spectacular. But it wasn’t meant to be. It’s just a question now of how battle-tested both colts are heading into the Derby, as neither got as much out of their respective last starts as was hoped.

The other big question regarding Uncle Mo is whether he’s still the same brilliant horse at 3 as he was at 2. That’s something we’ll just have to find out. If someone said right now that this year’s Derby winner is going to win by six lengths, is there any horse it could be other than Uncle Mo? That’s what makes him so intriguing in here.

One of the knocks against Uncle Mo is that he’s a big question mark a mile and a quarter. He may not have the most ideal 10-furlong pedigree, but it’s not nearly as bad as it’s made out to be and certainly no worse than the pedigrees of several recent Derby winners, such as Smarty Jones or Big Brown, both of who were by sprinter/miler sires and didn’t have a particularly strong female family.
 
Uncle Mo’s sire, Indian Charlie, has at least proven he can sire a mile and a quarter horse, as evidenced by his daughter Fleet Indian, winner of the 1 1/4-mile Personal Ensign and Delaware Handicap.
 
Indian Charlie’s sire, In Excess, ran the fastest 1 1/4 miles ever in New York, winning the Suburban Handicap in 1:58 1/5. He also won the nine-furlong Woodward in 1:46 1/5 and the Whitney. Indian Charlie’s tail-female family traces to major stamina influence Round Table.
 
Uncle Mo’s broodmare sire, Arch, won the 1 1/4-mile Super Derby and the 1 3/16-mile Fayette Stakes in track-record time. Arch has sired two major stakes winners at 1 1/4 miles -- Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Blame and Alabama winner Pine Island, and also is the sire of Arkansas Derby winner Archarcharch, who is a leading Derby contender this year.
 
Arch’s sire, Kris S., sired Prized, winner of the 1 1/2-mile Breeders’ Cup Turf and 1 1/4-mile Swaps Stakes, defeating Sunday Silence. He also sired Santa Anita Derby winner Brocco among others. Kris S. is by English Derby winner Roberto, who has sired such classy distances horses as Dynaformer, Brian’s Time, Silver Hawk, Bob Back, and Touching Wood
 
Uncle Mo’s fourth generation in his female family includes Northern Dancer and Danzig, as well as Cyane, who is a great-grandsire of Smart Strike, sire of Breeders’ Cup winners Curlin and English Channel and Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky.
 
Is this a great stamina pedigree? Let’s say there are a lot better and a lot worse. If Uncle Mo is as good this year as he was last year, and brings enough conditioning into the Derby, we just don’t see why his pedigree would be a deterrent, as so many people claim it to be.

First Set in Stone Wager
 
On March 9, I wrote a column titled "Derby Material," where I ranked my Top 15 horses, based on who had the look of a Kentucky Derby winner, in other words those who exhibited the attributes that normally win the Derby and who I could picture charging down the Churchill stretch to victory. This ranking had nothing to do with the Derby Dozen, which takes into account other factors.
 
Several of those on the list have fallen off the Derby trail due to injury, while some just didn’t pan out, with a number of late developers showing up virtually out of nowhere since then. But of those left, it is looking more and more like I will be able use some of them with confidence in the exotics.
 
Those horses are, as ranked on March 9, 1--Dialed In, 2--Mucho Macho Man, 3--Soldat, 7--Archarcharch, and 13--Toby's Corner. Two others in the Top 15 who are still in the Derby picture are 4--Santiva and 5--Stay Thirsty. So that's seven of the 15 still very much in the Derby picture.

Not wanting to use more than five horses in a trifecta box, I will go with Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man, Archarcharch, Toby's Corner, and Soldat. And I might do a little something with Stay Thirsty and/or Santiva to save at a huge price.

I figure, if these horses looked like Derby material two months ago, before the victories of Dialed In in the Florida Derby, Archarcharch in the Arkansas Derby, and Toby’s Corner in the Wood Memorial, they surely look like Derby material now. So in a confusing year such as this, why not go with initial observations and gut feeling and forget about the Johnny-come latelys? All five in the exotics box have been around since January and are battle-tested, and all still have room for improvement.

So, regardless of what we come up with in Friday’s selection column, this bet is already locked in.
 
Uncle Mo at that time still had not started, Midnight Interlude and Nehro were still maidens, Shackleford  had just been beaten 23 ½ lengths in the Fountain of Youth, and Animal Kingdom was beaten in a grass allowance race.
 
We will not be making our usual picks based on works, because we arrived too late to see the majority of works. We’ll comment on the gallops and overall appearance and incorporate that into the Friday selections. But this is a good bet to get out of the way without having to do any thinking.
 
We will repeat this section in Friday’s column.

Tomorrow, we will catch up on Animal Kingdom’s Saturday work, which we got a chance to see on tape, and explain why this horse, despite appearing to be bred strictly for the grass, has every right to run big on the dirt.

29 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Stones

Steve...I'm right there with you with 3 of your "locked in 5" (AAA, MMM and DI).  But I'm curious...will poor post positions change that opinion?

Thanks again for sharing the knowledge.

01 May 2011 3:32 PM
Draynay

This much I know for sure.  Dialed In will not hit the board and I am puzzled why anyone thinks he will.  This horse does not have a big sweeping move and going wide at Churchill in the Derby is not a recipe for success.  He barely caught a tiring Shackleford do you really think he will run down mid pack closers ?  Do you really think he will run by Nehro ?  Dailed in has had only 4 races and believe me he is no Big Brown pass on this horse or YOU WILL lose money.  Mucho Macho Man and Soldat have the foundation everyone claims you must have and Santiva has a graded stakes win on the surface which few can say.  Uncle Mo has done nothing wrong but lose the Wood while sick.  You must toss Midnight Interlude too.  No racing at 2 and just broke his maiden 2 back?  Toss.  Three horse can win the Derby Soldat, Nehro, and Uncle Mo.  The rest can only fill in your Tri. or Super Ticket.  Box 6 horse and I believe you will have the Tri in hand.  ( Uncle Mo, Soldat, MMM, Santiva, Archarch, and Nehro. )  I added Arch because he loves the surface so you have to have him in there.  Good luck.

01 May 2011 3:58 PM
Old Timer

Steve,

Interesting that if you had placed a wager on the "all others" in the final Future wager, you'd have coverd over half the possible starters in the Derby field, including some very live ones. That sure sounds like a good value to me. What are your thoughts ... is this an aberration or is "all others" a good betting strategy?

01 May 2011 4:28 PM
Mister Frisky

Steve I'm with you on that 5 horse tri box.I'm locked in right now on the same with the only exception I'm gonna go six deep .I figure it's worth the extra 60 dollars to nail this one.I will also throw Mo Nehro and Animal Kingdom on my back up ticket in some fashion.Can't wait to get your in person opinion of Toby when he gets to town.

01 May 2011 5:09 PM
robinm

So Steve, do I interpret this to mean you still have Uncle Mo as "1" in your Derby Dozen but will not be using him as 1 of the 5 horses in your trifecta box?

01 May 2011 5:12 PM
Steve Haskin

post positions have no bearing on it, nor does Uncle Mo. As I said it is based solely on my rankings on March 9 as explained in the story

01 May 2011 5:50 PM
Johnny

Like the box tri Steve..

I read on another site that MMM has glue shoes on his front feet..

I see Dialed In getting 3rd or 4th but not the win..

Toby's Corner I like alot.

I am also going to do a 5 horse tri bomber box..

Keyed by Schackelford he is getting alot of press now I was hoping for 30-1 on him

Good luck to all.

01 May 2011 7:39 PM
Mister Frisky

Just read in DRF that Repole is poppin off about how much he is going to bet on Uncle Mo to make sure he is the favorite on Saturday.Go right ahead Mike spend some of that vitamin water money.Nothing would make me and thousands of others happy if this is the case.PS this dude reminds me of Ernie Paragallo without the black shirt.

01 May 2011 8:28 PM
Zen's Auntie

Mo, I love him too, I wish they would just scratch him now already. He is still thin in the neck and shoulder and hasn’t really had a chance to muscle up right for this kind of test.  I keep hearing a really hard sell of how great he is doing… hmmm.

Mo has never looked so much Stay Thirstys equal as he did today. It's nice for ST but does NOT bode well for giving Mo a chance to show how good he really is.  

I say wait till the horse can win, I know TP made a point to say there is another path choice for UM "if he wouldn’t be ready"  and it would be in MO's best interest to explore this path now.

Others are coming in at mid to high 90% of their top form and he is Maybe 80%.  It looks like he needs a few more weeks of HARD work and Groceries to regain his natural form. There will not be a TC winner here lets be realistic 1 & ¼ then 1 & ½  on this much condition? I do believe in racing up to a big race but that’s too much to ask of a colt at Mo’s depth of bottom right now. Mo is really a special horse. He isnt his best right now. So why not shoot for HOTY by waiting, training and winning races you can win.

Maybe he will win despite not being his best. If he wins it will really be something.

Moving on...

Zito had a halo this morning (I swear he had that apparition look!) talking about how the clould’s opened up For Dialed In to go out and look like "all that" magnificent prancing and bucephalous stuff.  All Nick needed was a vestment...

Dialed In was breathing fire and easily looked like the fittest horse coming into this race.  I cannot believe how much filling in growth and form he has put on since March.

There is so much luck involved, starting again Wednesday. I’m not sure that DI can run down Archarcharch Or Mo or whoever has the lead at the top, but I will have hackles raised screaming when he makes that late move.  He's no Zenyatta (maybe someday, hey I can dream if I want too) but he gets it done mostly.

MMM looks like his feet are size 5 they seem Huge, good for concussion dispersal, bad for ripping off shoes... maybe it’s his gear or the glue ons too and how tall he is - but DANG.

Also much is being made of his little beating around the wire to which he responded well .  I know it seemed harsh to some observers but you actually have to train the colt to respond properly to the intense whip when asked - if you never crop them in training you get weaving misdirected energy fright and who knows what else MMM looked like he was just hand galloping along fast but half loafing and I liked his response too, it so that was good training.  This horse is really growing up fast and looks light on his feet fit and ready with a HUGE stride benthic heart girth and big freaking feet.

Props to Machen, who caught Dominus thinking bout the winners circle - that dirty chestnut is a gutsy little Horse and deserved the win.  We will see many more stakes wins from this gritty horse who made every inch.

01 May 2011 9:21 PM
Coldfacts

Steve,

I think what is being missed is that fact that the group Uncle Mo was brilliant against is not the group he will be running against in the Derby with the exception of Stay Thirsty. Below are the splits for the 2010 BCJ. He was 4 1/4L ahead at the post in the BCJ. The second place finisher BAT possibly completed the race in 1:43.60 to 1:44. Why was the closest finisher only able to come within 4 1/4L of him? The simple answer is, the closest finisher’s best time for 8 1/2F on that day was 1:43.60 at beat. The others were completing 8 1/2F in times of 1:45 and greater. Let’s assume Uncle Mo is just as brilliant as a 3YO and compare his BCJ time to some of the times recorded in some of the prep races. The 8.5F times for races used in the comparison were extrapolated and might be a bit off:

BCJ               23.57, 47.27, 1:11.92, 1:36.33, 1:42.60

FL Derby      23.30, 46.35, 1:10.63, 1:36.38, 1:43.22

AK Derby    22.54, 46.53, 1:11.22,  1:36.18, 1:42.76

SA Derby     22.31, 47.33, 1:11.53,  1:36.05  1:42.35

The winners of the above derbies are clearly better than Stay Thirsty who Uncle Mo defeated by 14 ½ in the BCJ. The times recorded by some of the derby winners are in some cases faster and in other   cases are much faster than the runner up in the BCJ. Uncle Mo the brilliant 2YO would have to improve significantly to dominate the entire group in the derby field. Below are the fractions for his only serious race as a 3YO :

23.49, 47.98, 1:12.28, 1:37.26, 1:43.59, 1:49.93.

He ran about a second slower than his BCJ effort. It was reported that his post race examination revealed an infection that might have contributed to his less than stellar effort in the Wood. Let’s ignore his Wood related medical issue. How much improvement was expected from Uncle Mo as a 3YO? Was he expected to be running 1:34 for a two turn mile? Even the very good ones rarely, if ever record such times for two turn miles. Was he expected to improve his 8 1/2F time by two seconds to 1:40.and a bit?  The WR on dirt is 1:39 and a bit recorded on the speed strip of the now defunct Bay Meadows.  Uncle Mo recorded times as a 2YO that it was unlikely he would be significantly faster as a 3YO. His 2YO brilliance if repeated will not be sufficient to dominate the cream of 3YOs as they are running just as fast as he was as a 2YO.  It is not likely that he has improved by two second and that is what it will take to be as dominant as he was as a 2YO.

He might have survived this far but he will not survive the tag teams awaiting him in the derby

01 May 2011 10:06 PM
Mskya

Hi Steve, you just gave me the confidence I needed to go ahead and take my leap of faith on my derby horse. The horse that has fallen off the radar. The only horse that keeps jumps out at me, even when all logic seems to point against it. That horse is Soldat.

The way I see it, I'm putting a line through the Florida derby. Dropping his 103 beyer down to about 96 because it was Sloppy. That gives him a 96, 96 springboard pattern coming into the derby. Maybe he can pop a 105-108 beyer for this.

His running style is perfect, like Super Saver's. I like him for 1st or 2nd. Really like that no one else likes him (except for you) Thanks again Steve. I hope we both hit. :)

01 May 2011 10:40 PM
Indiana Johnny

Steve, how many more updated reports will you do before Derby?

I've always liked MMM and Soldat, and still do. I got them with Uncle Mo in pool 2 $10 ex box.

I'm dropping Mo from my tri box, adding AAA, and still undecided on the 4'th., maybe some hefty odds with either Stay Thirsty, Brillant Speed, both have a good TDR #

Hope to see more from you soon. We're getting close.

01 May 2011 11:25 PM
The Deacon

Love this post Steve. I still Uncle Mo wins the Derby if he sound. I also think Stay Thirsty has a shot as does Midnight Interlude. Baffert can never be counted out in this race.

I know folks like Nehro but I think he may still be to unseasoned to tackle the 10 furlongs demands of this race and also he may have to go around tiring horses. It is a daunting task to ask a young 3 year old to do this...........good luck to all

02 May 2011 2:29 AM
datflippinrabbit

I'm sold on Pants on Fire i'll be looking for him at the top of the stretch carrying a ton of odds.AAA should be in the mix as well.The La Derby and the Ak Derby were by far the best preps.

02 May 2011 9:13 AM
Weekend

Ok, just a quick note. I watched horses and works from 530 to 9am on Saturday.

Zen's Auntie. I have to disagree with your above statement regarding Uncle Mo. I was at the 5/8 gap clocker stand talking to Pants on Fire's farm worker . (get to him in a minute) The Derby horses special training period had just started. A few of the horses went buy and comments were made about Shacklefords akward action, how Joyful Victory was pulling Larry Jones big butt around the track etc. and then we looked down the track and saw a Derby horse. At about the same time, 2-3 people said"who is that?" in very curious way. Uncle Mo galloped by looking like a million bucks. His coat had a sheen to it, his head was high, and he was full of himself. His chest and neck area made some of the other derby horses look plain. He was a sight to see, and I saw him plenty as a 2yo. Would we of like to see one more work, yes, but Pyhsically, he looks great.

Following up on the looking great comment, Animal Kingdom is a freak. He looked fantastic as well. He looked like he had no issue whatsoever getting over the fast track. He did it easy and was not blowing at all.

Pants on Fire, as mentioned earlier, looked dapppled out as well. I saw no lingering effects of the skin rash/ringworm that was mentioned he had after the risen star. He went by and looked really good as well.

Plum Pretty still is looking great on the track. She is doing everything easy.

Joyful Victory looked the best on Saturday, with Summer Soiree right behind her. I am worried about her getting in a speed dual and tiring out. going back on Wed and thursday morning for final looks and updates.

02 May 2011 9:28 AM
Johnny

Zens Auntie:

I agree just from the Pics I saw Dialed In looks awesome. I saw him at Gulfstream this year twice and he looks like a different horse.

He is in my mind the best horse going in..He is going to have to pass alot of horse though..

Dialed In 2nd by a nose??

To who though that is the question???  

02 May 2011 9:33 AM
Giddyup

That first paragraph in your blog should be sounding an alarm Steve. Just too many quality colts have fallen by the wayside and this is a disturbing trend that has been going on the past few years. I don't know whether it has to do with breeding, training or what but the industry simply has to find some remedy so that the marquee event of the sport showcases the cream of the crop and not simply "survivors".

02 May 2011 10:27 AM
bill daly

Kudos to Neil Howard for his win Saturday night with Machen and for his sensible approach towards the horse.  Machen, as most of us know, has shown he is a gifted one-turn horse who may turn out to be something special.  Howard emphatically stated he planned on keeping Machen on the one-turn track. It's really refreshing to hear that.  A lot of people would have toyed with the idea of running him The Preakness, but not Mr. Howard.  He's been around too long and knows a classic horse when he sees one.  He did train Mineshaft, a true classic horse, so he knows something about a thoroughbred's potential.  Really nice to see somebody out there with some common sense.

02 May 2011 11:18 AM
SACK THE SECRATARY

Props to ZA,I guess you are there to see the workouts in person.If you are which horses do not look that well?And now the chief architect of vitamin water is calling the shots for the derby. If UM wins is he gonna promote vita water for free and save the company the money paid to human athletes to promote it.

02 May 2011 11:47 AM
MikeM

In his final work UM worked likw ST and ST looked like UM. JV had to keep after him to keep up. Shakelford looked great and will be heard from.

02 May 2011 11:55 AM
Danny UK

Of the American colts, only Uncle Mo and ArchArchArch have really shown true class. I'm interested in Stay Thirsty because of his pedigree, and it wouldn't be a complete shock if Pletcher had another ace up his sleeve.

Master of Hounds is interesting, because he's shown enough class over here, to suggest he can really mix it with the big boys over middle distances and longer. It's his stamina rather than speed which is so impressive. A sloppy track will really play to his strengths.

Overall, I think Hounds is good enough to run to a place if not win (especially in testing conditions), and I can only really see ArchArchArch or Stay Thirsty finishing infront of him.

I hate to say it, but I don't think  Uncle Mo will ever reproduce his two year old form. He was an early bloomer, but the colts with the bigger size and scope have all improved beyond him. Perhaps his future lies as a sprinter, or perhaps he's just destined to be an average horse, much like St. Nicholas Abbey (over here) last year.

I'll be backing ArchArchArch, Stay Thirsty and Master of Hounds, and over a slopppy track I'll be heavily favouring the latter.  

02 May 2011 12:27 PM
dionjpf

Hi All,

Do not leave out comma to the top, he have the speed and stamina to win this, I agree with all that like soldat and sandive, Mo will not last the 1 1/4 and finally to make the tri stick in stay thirsty you return will be BIG

Good Luck

02 May 2011 12:48 PM
Zen's Auntie

Billy's Empire

Conformationally, I think Mo is among the top of the crop - He ALWAYS looks good to me.

I WISH I was watching these 3 year olds in the slop every morning Live but Its all video to me (DI is the only one in here I have seen race live) but I like being able to replay and focus on differrent aspects of the work - this is my hobby NOT my job so its just honest fun.

Im telling you, to me on various angles on the TV Mo just did NOT look like his old self yet. Not even as good as he looked in the Timely Writer (he should have stayed in FL - they grow things inthe SUN for a reason) Certainly Not Better than was as a two year old. He just doesnt seem to have the Muscle he carried going into the BCJ. Go back and look at the crease in his croup and how his neck shoulder and dip in front of the wither is filled in even as a 2 year old. Also speaking of head set look at his relaxed lewerd pupming and pulling action that I liked so much in his crushing BCJ.  He is not moving that nice Sunday.

Im not saying he looks terrible, Im saying he is not as good as he CAN BE. Horsemen are seeing this pretty plainly.

I realize Stay Thirsty has improved, this should be no surprise; He is a bred well, good looking colt that cost 250K more than his workmate. Much improved but not this much, Mo is NOT his top self thats still my opinion. We can agree to disagree on it.

Well put Danny UK.

Johnny,

DI has grown up so much into this its just amazing. I need a deep closer to Love, its my thing, and its him right now especially in his fitness condition - hes Made to close to the 1 & 1/4 so is Nehro - can you see them duking it out?

JUst one more MO thing - I know Mike R Loves these horses but...Pride goeth before the Fall.  I wish Mike would Just run ST.  He is actually bred a little better for the 1&1/4. and approaching best form.

Im not sure who looked not so good but I will say Rosie has a MUCH better mount than Calvin.  

3M (its kinda ironic a horse would be sponsored by GLUE makers right? or is it just me?) is Ready for this as any of them are as well.

Wish I would have seen Toby's Corner and Master of Hounds but didnt get to.  I think not being At CD now is a disadvantage.

Archarcharch just looks great to me. Him and Court are a real team so focused and workmanlike wasting nothing and that means something.

02 May 2011 3:02 PM
Weekend

Thanks Zen for you perspective.

On a totally different horse, Master of Hounds.

Obrien is one of the best trainers in the world. He has never really sent horses to the US for the derby when he could have. One of my buds who is a huge player  said he has heard MOH is coming with a shot. Do I like him, no, but I have been wrong many times before. He could be there at the end with Animal Kingdom, the two with the best breeding and tomlinson numbers in the race. The horse with the best tomlinson number won last year....

02 May 2011 4:05 PM
KY VET

If i ever have to wonder why i make money in this game, all one has to do, is to read these comments many of these posters make...Some people try to say uncle mo didn't run fast in the breeders cup! really? Hey, thats fine if you like a horse, and not another horse...but the reasoning people make up is crazy...someone said,"dialed in lacks the sweeping move needed for the derby." really? Are you on drugs? what are you watching? His move is jaw dropping! Have you actually watched his races? Then theres the guy that doesn't like mmm because he is young? He ran great as 2 yr old, been there against everybody all year! all of a sudden he gets younger? Is this that bad brad pitt movie? logic would make sense to like him more not less if he is younger right?  Bizarre!  Uncle mo ran 3 Great races right? 108 in the cup....one of the fastest ever...and some people say maybe he matured early, and won't improve off 2 yr old form...which is ok...except he doesn't have to be BETTER! does anybody get that?  MO might be worse than last year, but its from attrition...running fast hurts horses!!! mo loses and people think its because he didnt mature? I thank god for you people every day!!! Try to make some kinda sense!

02 May 2011 4:29 PM
KY VET

As i posted earlier....Only uncle Mo has run fast enough to win the derby!!!! plain and simple....It usually takes a 105 or better!!! all other horses you people are picking can fire their best race, and lose the derby!!! Go into this race knowing that fact....So Whoever wins, will improve at least 3 to 5 lenghts....which happens....So....the question is, who can improve to a 105? Since Mo already has run faster, he is likely to....if Mo isn't right, then a horse that is improving, lighter raced, is the smart way to go....But some people keep saying the opposite...not enough bottom they say....no common sense! Nehro has run too many improving races! get off this horse! you will lose! biggest dissapointment of derby! mmm good horse hasn't fired...got a chance  if modoesn't fire, but you gotta believe mo will fire...if he does, all the close to the pace horses are toast......and none of the closers except dialed in has run fast enough! So go with a horse that is improving but not tired.....

02 May 2011 4:46 PM
MikeM

I'm sure UM gives a very nice appearance,shinny coat etc. etc. But in watching his work it is very clear that JV had to nudge him along to keep up and gallop out.

02 May 2011 5:43 PM
KY VET

MISCONCEPTIONS.....Alot of people think these workouts mean anything.. who taught you this? a book? These horses are already in shape! workout times are close to meaningless...the only thing about them, is showing how they feel...not how fast....any of these horses can work in 58 if they want to...YOU DON"T WANT THAT!..."oh! uncle mo isn't working fast!"    who cares?  You should want that! He is a smart horse(not high strung) which is a great sign! He is able to rate! Its the high strung 58 for 5 f ones you gotta worry about....by the way Mo outworked the older horse that ran a 107 beyer earlier in the year..then out worked stay thisty....OH YEA...Mo doesn't look good!!! the zen lady says he is not pulling like last year.....GREAT!!!! that is a good sign! not a bad sign.....I DON"T CARE IF MO GET DEAD LAST!  HE ALREADY SHOWED HIS GREATNESS! It WON"T be the distance, or the breeding...it will because he isn't sound, or somone does a mine that bird, and improves 8 lengths..Same for dialed in...They already ran great....

02 May 2011 9:30 PM
UncleStosh

Wow, for a veteran, profit producing handicapper KY VET, you sure sound like a newbie. No real handicapper would be so certain that a horse whose best race was at 8.5f, 8 months ago in his 2 year old season, coming off an infection in which the trainer sounds as if it is still present, and an owner who seems like he would run the horse with anything short of a broken cannon bone.

Fact: UncleMo nor any other horse in the field has run "fast enough" to win the derby bc none of them has ever run the Derby distance. Handicapping 101 lesson #1.

Lesson#2: 8.5f is closer to a sprint race than a route no matter how many turns there are.

04 May 2011 9:37 PM

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