Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

In 1971, when Cot Campbell started the concept of buying horses at auction for the purpose of forming syndicates, he had to watch one of his first rejects, Canonero II, who he turned down for $1,200 because of a crooked leg, win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Now that Campbell has announced his retirement from syndicates at age 84 after revolutionizing the sport, how appropriate would it be for him to finally get that elusive Derby winner 42 years later after having finished second (with Summer Squall), third (with Impeachment), and fourth (with Limehouse) in the Run for the Roses? Don’t you love a good story? We know the Derby gods do, and like to reward lifetime achievement, and this one involving Palace Malice should be right up their alley.

Campbell and Dogwood Stable have been doing things the right way for over four decades, and if you ever want to live vicariously, just picture yourself a lifelong syndicate member, or better put a Dogwood family member, meeting new people, attending various racing parties and functions, soaking up the intense flavor of Saratoga, rejoicing in the winner’s circle, and going down to Aiken, S.C. every year to watch the new babies and listening to Cot’s now-famous yarns about racing’s most colorful characters – both human and equine. It’s not that Cot’s tales are that much different than anyone else’s. It just sounds more entertaining listening to them through Cot’s silver-lined vocal cords that produce words as comforting to the ear as a southern breeze blowing through the willows. And in addition to Cot you get his wife Anne’s infectious smile as an added attraction.

So, here you have Cot announcing his syndicate days are over after leaving a legacy that has changed the infrastructure of racing, bringing in thousands of new owners through the numerous syndicates that have followed the path Dogwood Stable started.

What better way for the Derby gods to finally give their thanks than by presenting Cot and Anne and Dogwood with the Kentucky Derby trophy in the year of their retirement. Of course, that doesn’t mean racing and Cot Campbell will be parting ways. You can bet he will find new ventures to keep him involved in the sport. What also makes the timing right for the Derby gods to get involved is that Dogwood appears to have a worthy representative in Palace Malice.

The son of Curlin will be stretching out to two turns next Saturday in the Risen Star Stakes and we are expecting a huge effort and possible upset that would put the colt back in the Top 12, where he was in Week 1. He’s certainly bred to go long, being out of a Royal Anthem (who is by Theatrical) mare and tracing back to Hail to Reason, Relaunch, Damascus, and Grey Dawn. And even if he runs a good second or third and is coming on at the end it will be a big step forward toward a peak performance on Derby Day. He couldn’t be any sharper, coming off a bullet work in 1:00 1/5 in company with Violence, so everything seems to be falling into place.

“We’re starting to get into a very exciting time of year,” Cot said. “With all the Kentucky Derby preps coming up around the country everybody in the nation starts to get interested in horse racing and I think that’s a wonderful thing for our sport.

“I know (trainer) Todd (Pletcher) seemed very pleased with Palace Malice’s work, so the horse appears to be very much on target for this race. He’ll have to be if we’re going to have the points we need to continue on the Derby trail. This will be his first quest at a mile-and-a-sixteenth. In his last race at Gulfstream he caught a sloppy track and the horse that beat us was quite a speed horse, but (Palace Malice) galloped out well that day, and he looks to me like a horse that wants to go long.”

Cot also is thrilled to get the services of the meet’s leading rider Rosie Napravnik, who doesn’t do much wrong at Fair Grounds, or any place for that matter.

“We’re tickled to death to have Rosie to ride him,” Cot said. “How far in front is she in the rider standings now, anyway? Yes, I can say we’re definitely looking forward to our trip down there this weekend.”

And so are the Derby gods, who no doubt will be sizing up Cot for a blanket of roses. Who knows, this year could be the perfect fit.

Under the radar

OK, so MUDFLATS beat one horse in the six-horse San Vicente and will be pretty much ignored coming out of that race. But if you’re looking for a hidden gem, you might want to go back and study that race more closely. Not only was he wide every step of the way, he was looking strong around the far turn as he moved up into contention, but pretty much lost his action turning for home, throwing his head up and refusing to change leads. Then Treasury Bill sawed him off, causing him to again throw his head up and steady at the most crucial moment of the race, with the entire field spread out across the track. He dropped back to last before finally finding his best stride and was running strongly to the wire, beaten a head for fourth and three-quarters of a length for third, while finishing only 2 1/2 lengths behind the winner. The son of Tapit’s tail-female family traces to major stamina influences Slew o’Gold, Stage Door Johnny, Herbager, and Ribot and for all you Rasmussen Factor (RF) followers, he is inbred 4x4 to the Claiborne Farm mare Narrate. One thing is sure, you’ll get price on him next time out.

Perhaps one of the most underrated horses on the Derby trail is Sam F. Davis winner FALLING SKY, who outran the swift Majestic Hussar going 6 1/2 furlongs (Majestic Hussar came right back to beat Palace Malice comfortably), then stretched out to two turns in the Sam Davis and charged to lead from the outside going into the first turn and held off the late surge of Pasco Stakes winner Dynamic Sky, who still couldn’t get by him after the wire. What we found interesting is the decision to run him back in three weeks in the Fountain of Youth instead of waiting another two weeks for the Tampa Bay Derby. Could it be that in picking his Pletcher poison, trainer John Terranova decided that Violence is not quite as lethal as a dose of Verrazano? Or perhaps he's doing the unthinkable -- running back soon enough to give him more options to earn points later on. Whatever the reason, it's something you don't often see anymore -- a horse actually running sooner rather than later.

Most of all, we’re crazy about this colt’s pedigree. One of the truly great stamina and class influences in the breed is Hail to Reason. Not only is Falling Sky inbred three times to Hail to Reason, something you rarely see, he actually has him four times in his pedigree, 4x5x5x7 (an extreme rarity), three in the female family. He traces to Hail to reason through Mr. Leader on his sire’s side and through Roberto and the great mare Admiring on his dam’s side. Going back two more generations, you find Hail to Reason again as great-grandsire of Seattle Slew. And if you want a real rarity, Falling Sky’s broodmare sire is Kentucky Derby and Travers winner Sea Hero, who has been standing in Turkey for the past 14 years and whose name has virtually disappeared from U.S. pedigrees. It might not be wise to overlook this colt just because his lead was diminishing in the Sam Davis. The horse he beat had a lot more two-turn experience and this guy is eligible to improve.

Can a Cal-bred who was beaten in a state-bred stakes at 4-5 knock off Flashback and Goldencents in the San Felipe Stakes? We’re not saying yes, but don’t overlook OMEGA STAR in the 1 1/16-mile race. He was stuck down on the rail from the 1-post and was forced to make a premature move at the five-sixteenths pole. He looked like a winner after turning for home, but a more experienced horse came from the clouds to beat him over a track favoring deep closers. He’s by Candy Ride, out of a Fusaichi Pegasus mare and he has a big, powerful stride that should help him as the distances stretch out. He’s a huge longshot, but if this John Shirreffs-trained horse can show something in the stretch and at least be competitive with the top two he could establish himself as a legitimate Derby contender.

36 Comments

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CHIEF PICAWINNA

I know most of you have noticed that the first two prep races in which the qualifying points for the derby jump to 50 points for first and 20 for second have fields of 14 for the Risen Star and 11 for the FOY.What these full fields could provide are unexpected winners of the 50 points.I hope this will be the norm going forward and it might be.

18 Feb 2013 8:34 PM
zarvona

Yeah, and besides "Mudflats" high on my watch list; where "Shaking It Up" did show off his greater experience, which paid off; "War Academy" in only his 2nd start; and "Treasury Bill" all bred well enough for distance, did also impress and show they remain in the hunt. In fact, only "Belvin", who I don't rate out for high for distance anyway, was really the only one who lost ground in my eyes. As to the rest, they all pretty much  remain on my list to keep an eye on.

        7 fur.:

winner : Shakin It Up:  1:22.48;

                                    2nd    Treasury Bill:   + 1

                                    3rd  Caballo Del Cielo: + 1 ¾  

                                    4th    War Academy:     + 2 ½

                                    5th   Mudflats:  + 2 ½ + a head

  As to "Falling Sky", well he should be tested in the FOY against the likes of "Violence"; "Majestic Hussar"; "Orb"; and "Cerro"... and etc., where we should all get a great shot at gauging a host of promising probables.

  And, as to "Falling Sky", who has seemingly actually gotten little respect really thus far,--99-1 in Pool #1,--yet who knocked off "Dynamic Sky", is certainly another I have been high on since !!.

 Not sold on "Normandy Invasion" or "Palace Malice", yet,  where "Oxbow" still remanins high on my watch list, the outcome of the "Risen Star" should prove most interesting also.

  Yep, the prep season is now under way, "GO baby, Go Baby, GO"!!

19 Feb 2013 1:23 AM
JON R

Sorry to change the subject for a moment, but as Rachel Alexandra progresses (and I pray she continues), does she miss her foal?  If so, how does she demonstrate that, or was she around it for such a short time that she is basically unaware of its existence?  

19 Feb 2013 9:34 AM
Coldfacts

A representative of the powerful Mr. Prospector sire line.  His sire Curlin falls into an elite category of stallions from this sire line. The grandsons of Mr. P have sired 5 Derby winners.  Should Place Malice win the Derby, Curlin will join Street Cry, Elusive Quality, Distorted Humor, Quite American and Unbridled as grandson of Mr. P that have sired a Derby winner.

Breeder Cup Classic winners have not proven to be great sires of Derby winners. Only Unbridled has the distinction of siring a Derby winner.  The recently retired A P Indy came close with Aptitude when he finished second to Fusaichi Pegasus . Interestingly, both Unbridled and A P Indy won a leg of the TC en route to their BCC wins. Curlin shares this similarity as he won the Preakness en route to his BCC win. He therefore has a chance of overcoming this Derby trend.

Palace Malice dam line is loaded with stamina but it screams turf. However, his action does not suggest he is a turf horse. His dam sire Royal Anthem is not seen regularly with Derby type horses as he was a turf performer.  The surface at Churchill Downs that has been favorable to turf types might suite Palace Malice immensely.

He is a May foal and I love these foals. Many might consider him a late foal and consequently at a maturity disadvantge. The pin sized May foal Mine That Bird electrified us with his amazing and improbable 2009 Derby victory. Thunder Gulch, Victory Gallop, Lookin At Lucky, Pioneerof The Nile and Musket Man were all May foals the either won or placed in TC races. Who can forget the most famous May foal that won the Derby – Northern Dancer

A talented colt who has the credentials to win but will be carrying the added handicap of this conditioner’s dismal Derby record.

19 Feb 2013 10:51 AM
Coldfacts

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

When you cited that Big Brown had a January foaling date I was shocked that I had missed this colt fact. Official record reflects a April 10, 2005 foaling date for BB.

“See if you can find more Coldfacts to support your theory that May is a more normal foaling month for thoroughbreds.”

In our hemisphere, mares in their natural habitats are receptive to stallions in the months that will allow their foals to be born in the in the Spring and Summer months the following year. This natural occurrence is Mother Nature’s way of ensuring these foals are not exposed to the harsh conditions of the winter months.  The month May falls within these seasons.

Breeders try to avoid May foaling dates due to the maturity disadvantage these foals face heading into a Derby run in the month of their births. Consequently, there are not a lot of May foals.

There are also not a lot of January foals as well. January is a winter month and to get mares to foal in this month the majority of them have to be placed under lights. This gives them the impressions that days are longer. This process actually tricks them and this leads to a triggering their cycle and this makes them receptive to stallions outside normal reception cycle.

19 Feb 2013 10:54 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Coldfacts glad to see you are double checking my facts.I am going by what I see, an explanation is good but what I want to know is the foaling month as it relates to the Derby.If the Breeders are artificially inducing birth by whatever means, I dont know anything about that as I have never owned a thoroughbred.

19 Feb 2013 1:07 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Coldfacts and other readers of this blog here is an article I just found which some of you might already know but not all of you.

The May foal factor is the strongest available predictor of Belmont success--far stronger than the most sophisticated figs or Beyer numbers--because May foals, incredibly, have won nearly 40 percent of the last 15 runnings of the Belmont (including, Afleet Alex, Lemon Drop Kid, Thunder Gulch, Touch Gold, Victory Gallop, and Mine That Bird’s own daddy, Birdstone). Therefore, given the historical dominance by May foals in this mile-and-a-half event, and given the Bird’s paternal family connection and the probable presence of steadfast Pioneerof the Nile, we could even be looking at the same May foal quinella we witnessed in the Derby. In any event, it is time we give May foals the respect they deserve, at the sales and on the track.

19 Feb 2013 1:18 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Coldfacts just checked recent history concerning the excerpt I posted from a 2009 article.The short term pattern is over there hasnt been a May foal that has won the Belmont stakes since Afleet Alex in 2005.That is why I value RECENT HISTORY more than past history.I hope that bit of trivia remains in memory because there will probably be a different winner for the Belmont than the Kentucky Derby and using a probable May foal as a winner in an exotic bet could be an overlay.

19 Feb 2013 1:40 PM
Susan from VA

I thought most thoroughbred mare were kept under lights to ensure early foals.  The reason there aren't a lot of January foals is that nobody wants to risk having a (horrors) December foal.

19 Feb 2013 2:27 PM
Coldfacts

FALLING SKY:

Trainer’s quotes:

“He’s just doing great. He’s won over the track here. I think coming back in three weeks, if anything, could help him. He seems to thrive on work,” trainer John Terranova said. “We thought it would be a good spot to put him in since he came out of the Tampa race absolutely fantastic.”

“He cruised the half, galloped out well and was hitting the ground great,” Terranova said. “He’s eating great; he looks tremendous.”

This colt is a serious race horse. His victory over Majestic Hussar was achieved 14 day after his 4th place finish in the 6F Inaugural at Tampa Bay. In the Inaugural he was chasing a 45 pace with a final time of 1:09 and a bit.

He is not a sprinter and is more like his sire. He has excellent cruising speed with energy efficient strides and a dam line packed with stamina to carry it.  Violence is going to have to run to defeat this one and the other from Mr. McLaughlin barn assuming they do not get into a speed duel.

19 Feb 2013 2:34 PM
steve from st louis

When I was working for the Form in Chicago in the 1970s, I applied for a new Public Relations job with Dogwood and Mr. Campbell. I didn't know but found out later there were about nine gorgeous women who also applied for the job. Although he had success with colts on the track, Cot still had an eye for the distaff set. Needless to say, he didn't meet my "minimum". It would have been fun, though, as he was the first to develop racing partnerships.

19 Feb 2013 3:35 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Chief -

In an attempt to inject even a sniff of statistical reliability to the 40% figure you provided,  how many May colts have run in those 15 Belmonts ?

19 Feb 2013 7:07 PM
Criminal Type

Susan, Your partly right. Mares are put under lights in January to stimulate their cycle so they can be bred in mid February or early March. The resulting foal is then born in late January or early February. This is a procedure used on maiden mares and mares who did not get in foal the previous season for whatever reason, not to make mares who are in foal go into labor to ensure early foaling dates. Typical gestation is 11  months give or take a couple of days and if all goes well the mare will be bred again a few weeks after she gives birth.

19 Feb 2013 7:39 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Plod Boy Phil I got that from a search on google and the writer was from The Paulick Report and it was dated sometime in 2009.If memory serves me he said 10% of the starters were May foals.But after I posted it I checked going backwards from last year and no May foal has won since 2005,when Afleet Alex did it.

19 Feb 2013 8:56 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

PBP after my last post I remembered what I used on google to search and the author didnt state a percentage of starters in the Belmont the 10% figure I remembered was in the article but not given as the Belmont starters if they allow me to copy here it is:

by The Paulick Report | 05.13.2009 | 12:16pm

Ask Ray

I’ve always been surprised at the habits of many buyers at yearling sales…they sometimes remind me of lemmings marching to the sea, making decisions without logic or rationality. I once asked a leading buyer why he often spent so much money on yearlings by unproven first-year sires, a practice that is common enough to inflate the yearling average for those new sires. His response was simple: “They haven’t failed yet.”

That philosophy makes no sense to me, for it would seem far more pragmatic to look for undervalued proven stallions than to roll the dice on a group of newcomers whose chance of succeeding are somewhere between 5-10%.

Another unexplainable practice of yearling buyers is their disdain of foals born in the month of May. On average, it would make sense that May foals would be smaller than their January-April counterparts, so perhaps buyers at summer or fall yearling sales are simply unable to project how that smaller horse might look as a 2- or 3-year-old.

Some years ago, statistics accompanying an article I wrote for Bloodhorse’s MarketWatch newsletter, showed that May foals were only marginally behind earlier season foals in performance standards (stakes wins, money won), but their average yearling prices were much, much lower. Where I come from, that makes May foals a bargain.

Rob Whiteley, who operates the successful Liberation Farm breeding operation, came to the same conclusion in an article he wrote this week for the Thoroughbred Daily News. From the winning Kentucky Derby exacta of May foals Mine That Bird and Pioneerof the Nile to a review of May foals that have won Breeders’ Cup races, Whiteley makes a compelling argument that buyers should pay far more attention to May foals than they traditionally have. We’d like to thank Sue Finley of TDN for granting reprint rights of Whiteley’s article. – Ray Paulick

By Rob Whiteley

As a populist horseman, it makes me smile when a relatively obscure horse comes out of the hinterlands and beats up on a bunch of fashionably bred horses who are sired by generally over-priced, over-hyped, and over-bred stallions. And it turns my smile into a broad grin to observe that Mine That Bird is a mid-May foal.

To be fair, the valiant runner-up, Pioneerof the Nile, is regally bred and fully deserving of his cost of production. His bloodlines and hefty stud fee came through in a brave display of talent and determination, and those who played him unsuccessfully in the exotics only have themselves to blame for not taking home a big piece of the track. Like the item we look past in the front of the refrigerator, it was right there to see. Pioneerof the Nile is also a May foal, and if you had played a May foal exacta, you would have received $2,074.80 for a $2 exacta box.

(Ed. Note: A $2 exacta box with all of the May foals in the Derby would’ve cost $40. Atomic Rain (Smart Strike), Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor) and third-place finisher Musket Man (Yonaguska) are all May foals as well. A $1 triple box on the quintet would’ve set you back just $60, and returned $20,750.30)

In light of the continuous racing success achieved by May foals year after year, I am at a loss to rationally understand how that success fails to translate into the sales scene where May foals, as a group, bring approximately 35 percent less than their counterparts. For some in-grained reason, rooted in hearsay and perpetuated by the typical word of mouth momentum that spreads other horse industry falsehoods and myths, May foals get a bad rap at the sales, and are often discounted accordingly in the ring. This is such nonsense. The stigma on May foals that floats around on the winds of ignorance has no basis in fact.

It can even be persuasively argued that May foals actually have a slight advantage over other foals, as May foals are born according to a horse’s innate and natural spring-time predispositions, and with the most favorable environmental conditions.

Savvy buyers who keep up with the details of racing know that May foals, as a group, race as successfully as foals born in other months, and better than foals born in January. And the sharpest horsemen and pinhookers know that a few days or even weeks generally make little difference in a horse’s early development.

The most important factors in a horse’s ability to perform early involve genetically based precocity, balance, athleticism, and mental maturity, not date of birth. Each horse has its own genetically wound clock, and horses have wide-ranging differences in the rate that they develop, no matter which month they might be born in. Like foals born in January or February or any month, some May foals may be forward enough to zip along at two-year-old sales, while others may not be mature enough to race effectively until the middle of their three-year-old years, or later. Horses, like humans and other mammals, follow their own genetic blueprint.

When it is their time to perform, however, May foals truly hold their own, even as two-year-olds.

Except for the month of January, the fewest number of foals are born in May, yet they account for 10 percent of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile colt and filly champions. Furthermore, as May foals mature, their success rate in certain top level venues can be jaw-dropping. May foals have won a stunning 50 percent of the last 10 Breeders’ Cup Distaffs (including, Azeri, Round Pond, Spain, and Escena). And May foals have won over 25 percent of all Breeders’ Cup Mile races.

Despite the impressive frequency with which May foals find the winner’s circle in big races, however, a May foal may not win the Preakness this year. Instead, a magnificent January foal named Rachel Alexandra may be brilliant enough to outrun the boys, no matter when they were born (if she can adjust to a new groom, a new trainer, and new routines). But the Belmont, please take note, is entirely a different matter because of the extraordinary potency of the May foal factor.

The May foal factor is the strongest available predictor of Belmont success--far stronger than the most sophisticated figs or Beyer numbers--because May foals, incredibly, have won nearly 40 percent of the last 15 runnings of the Belmont (including, Afleet Alex, Lemon Drop Kid, Thunder Gulch, Touch Gold, Victory Gallop, and Mine That Bird’s own daddy, Birdstone). Therefore, given the historical dominance by May foals in this mile-and-a-half event, and given the Bird’s paternal family connection and the probable presence of steadfast Pioneerof the Nile, we could even be looking at the same May foal quinella we witnessed in the Derby. In any event, it is time we give May foals the respect they deserve, at the sales and on the track.

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19 Feb 2013 9:19 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Coldfacts I dont think Falling Sky can beat Violence Saturday in the FOY.In fact there are no Itsmyluckyday's(high fig on same track) in the FOY.Violence will be 1st or 2nd unless he stumbles gets boxed or something else out of the norm like a frontrunner that tries to separate from the field.

19 Feb 2013 9:26 PM
KY VET

Thank you jesus!....These are the people, who are betting against me! I know jesus.....the really ARE having this discussion......yea, i know.....they really are!

19 Feb 2013 9:28 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Coldfacts correction there is a high figure horse who ran the fig on the same track,in fact he was high odds in the last race(Holy Bull) after running 2nd to Itsmyluckyday but from the chart he had issues in the last.His name

Sr. Quisqueyano,but he wont beat Violence on Saturday but he could beat Falling Sky.

19 Feb 2013 9:32 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Chief-

I did read your subsequent post about the great Afleet Alex being the last. My apologies for coming across a bit aggressive in questioning the data you provided - poorly done, me.  

You do understand of course that knowing the number of May foals entered in each of the last 15 Belmonts is an important starting point in validating the meaningfulness, or lack there of,  of the stat.  

Thanks.

19 Feb 2013 11:31 PM
Love 'em all

Speaking of foaling dates, I'd like to take this opportunity to wish Wise Dan a very happy 6th birthday today.  Love that fella!

I'll be rooting for "Pal Mal" and Rosie this weekend ... along with Oxbow.  

Hope the weather improves for the Risen Star.

20 Feb 2013 10:16 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Vetky if you wanna lose more money bet against Violence on Saturday.

20 Feb 2013 10:18 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Mr KY Vet I dare you to pick another horse besides Violence to win the FOY and back it up with a REAL wager

20 Feb 2013 12:06 PM
KY VET

Cheif's 9:19 post.....avaliable in paperback friday.....orders taken on amazon....

20 Feb 2013 12:48 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Ky Vet dont tell anyone but I copied that whole article.Plod Boy Phil requested it.

20 Feb 2013 2:06 PM
Coldfacts

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

“Coldfacts I don't think Falling Sky can beat Violence Saturday in the FOY.”

No one thought Mine That Bird could have won the Kentucky Derby. He not only won the race he destroyed the field. What's the moral of the story? Races are not decided on paper and past performances are no guarantees for future success.

If I did not think that Falling Sky was a serious racehorse I would not be on record specifying same. There are those that focus on the known and ignore the unknown. Revisit the videos of this colt races and focus on his stride pattern and the ease with which he covers ground. He easily defeated a highly regarded Majestic Hussar who returned to humble the highly thought of Palace Malice.

He went into Tampa Bay and won The Sam Davis from gate to wire. If you know anything about that track it is very difficult to go gate to wire. When he was joined by Dynamic Sky he would not let that one by and showed that he was capable of finding another gear.

His dam was sired by Derby winner Sea Hero a horse that was loaded with stamina on both sided of his pedigree. His second dam was sire by a son of Seattle Slew and his third by Roberto. There is enough stamina hi his dam line to carry his speed. This colt’s most impressive victory came at GP and he will be forwardly placed and dangerous.

20 Feb 2013 3:09 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Chief -

A link would have sufficed - thanks.

I'm honestly not particularly interested in the concept, though I appreciate how others might be. That said, the article still appears to lack reliable statistical support as all of the numbers put forth (win % of the BCM and BCD as well as the Belmont)all lack the necessary detail of how many May foals were entered in those races. The addition of that information is not likely to provide statistical relevance,  but it would at least be a starting point.  The authors use of MTB's Derby to provide betting support is only legit if he were to also include the results of similar exacta boxes made during the previous decade or two.  No doubt the net result would be positive, though it's unlikely that the ROI of such a betting strategy would have been the selling point of the article prior to this one result.

20 Feb 2013 3:15 PM
KY VET

i like violence too.......big whoop

20 Feb 2013 5:48 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

PBPhil if I can remember that bit of trivia, I might use it as a reversion to a May foal winning the Belmont.BTW exotic betting can make use of such data because it is not as logical as betting for the win is,although we all know there are headscratchers in all facets of playing horses.

20 Feb 2013 7:15 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

KYVET good luck to you in the FOY,I would go in person to Gulfstream to wager and collect cash, but I wont know his closing odds or even where he opens until the race is on the board.That will afect my exotic wagers because I dont know how much I should wager because I need to hedge in the win,place,show pools.

20 Feb 2013 7:19 PM
Pedigree Ann

"Breeders try to avoid May foaling dates due to the maturity disadvantage these foals face heading into a Derby run in the month of their births. Consequently, there are not a lot of May foals."

It is not the racing ability that counts to breeders; it is the appearance at the weanling and yearling sales. Sales are where breeders make their money and bigger is better at the sales. Buyers have been conditioned to prefer weanlings that look like yearlings and yearlings that look like 2yos by the use of steroids in preparing sales youngsters in the recent past. Even broodmares who will foal 'late' (in May) bring much less than those foaling earlier.

The Sales are driving the breeding industry now, to the detriment of racing and the breed itself.

22 Feb 2013 12:03 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

There you have it an unexpected result in the Risen Star,even knowing that I wouldnt have gotten Ive Struck a Nerve their were 3 colts at 99-1.I like the points system.

23 Feb 2013 6:10 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Coldfacts I now definitely dont think Falling Sky can defeat Violence in any race at Gulfstream.I hope he tries in the Florida Derby.I have luck betting in the Kentucky Derby because I project a colts known ability, into what he can do in his next race or his next two,if Im wrong well so what.I like the Derby betting pool because I can increase my wager, and have a reasonable chance of recouping my investment(or most of it) even if I lose most of my bets, because of a 20 horse field, and being able to reliably toss up to 5 betting interests.This is not a science so nitpicking at my statements will only help reinforce my opinions.

24 Feb 2013 9:38 AM
Owlbet

Now with the injury and subsequent retirement of Violence, the Run to the Roses has taken on a decidedly deeper shade of red.

I'm really liking Orb!

25 Feb 2013 3:14 AM
cuba"s classic chef de race

My friend hasking,if Falling Sky has HTR a few times in his blood and and Sea Hero is his broodmare sire what can you say about Purple Egg who is by the same sire Lion Hart and has Prize Who did beat the great Sunday Silence before winning the 12 furlons B.C.Turf with a beyer speed figure of 110!! running on grass for the fierst time and olso has the unbeaten monster Ribot winner of the Arc twice in a row also at 12 furlongs? well for me the Question for the Egg is about class becouse he has serious stamina in his dam side.

26 Feb 2013 8:58 PM
cuba"s classic chef de race

And as they say in horse racing to draw a line,Purple Egg won the fastest inaugural in the 25 years this race has been ran and he did beat Falling Sky there who then did beat Majestic Hussar who did beat Palace Malice, if this 3 horses ran well enough at 1 1/16 don't you think the Egg can do better then them with his stamina packed botton line?.

26 Feb 2013 9:31 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Cuba"s CCdR I played the Palace in the 2nd pool,hope to soak the soldiers in the generals glory.by using the tactic of an exacta box.

04 Mar 2013 9:22 AM

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