What Does a Brisk Market Look Like?

By Ian Tapp

What does a brisk market look like?—probably something like the 2013 Keeneland September sale. The charts below plot prices of sold yearlings (up to $1 million) by hip number for the 2009-13 Keeneland September sales. Just a quick visual comparison of 2009 vs. the first half of 2013 suggests that the yearling market has rebounded significantly in the past four years.

The 2013 sale's extended Book 1 format spread out the top horses across the early sessions, so it will be interesting to monitor how sharply the median (currently $120K) tapers off during the second half of the sale. (See updated chart)

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Nice analysis, and the graphs paint the picture rather clearly.

So, ok; it's gotten a bit better for the breeders- they're sustaining less of a LOSS, but, collectively, they remain losers. Also, the "better" the market, the greater will be the loss for the end users. For that matter, if every yearling was sold for zero, the collective end users would still be in the red. The end user is paying for entertainment.

18 Sep 2013 4:32 PM

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