Who will win the 2010 Kentucky Derby?

It’s never too early to start thinking about the Kentucky Derby.

Rank the Derby potential of these top 2-year olds:

To participate, use your cursor to drag the selections on the left (currently arranged in alphabetical order) to the blank placeholders on the right. Once you have completed ranking all of the horses, submit your entries and compare your results to the rest of the community. A first place ranking will earn 9 points, second place receives 8 points, and so on.

148 Comments

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brettzky99

Better poll would be how many will start in the derby.  One, two maybe.

If last year is an indication 6 of the 10 would be out with injuries.

19 Sep 2009 5:27 PM
Dutch

Exactly right, Brettzky99. Don't be surprised if none of these horses are in the Derby starting gate.

19 Sep 2009 5:54 PM
trebloc

Super Saver?

19 Sep 2009 5:55 PM
rjb92

i liked the way dublin hustled into a striking position in the "hopeful" at saratoga from a far outside post then pounced when it counted. i also agree with brettzky99.

19 Sep 2009 6:15 PM
Mike A.

I'd lay D'Funnybone if I could find a backer. This horse won't win at 1-1/4 miles in May, or ever. Fast horse, though, and I hope they keep him at a mile or less.

As funny as this sounds, I think Dublin is the most likely to make the starting gate come May. I know Dead Duck has a reputation of running horses into the ground, but he's going to do well with this one. As Haskin quoted Lukas, "This is horse is going to make me famous." He'll be treating this one as if he were a glass slipper.

19 Sep 2009 6:28 PM
CB man

With the way horses have been going down , I think it's much too early to be choosing derby winners, Just look at what happened this year.

Old Fashioned, Midshipman, Vineyard Haven, Square Eddie, The Pampelmouse, Big Drama, Quality Road, I want Revenge, Win Willy,

Al at some point top 5 derby prospect.

I think we should just wait and see.

19 Sep 2009 6:30 PM
aladyreb

I believe Discreetly Mine bears watching after his trip in the Futurity. To show such poise in recovering from an awful trip in just his 3rd start as a 2 year old is remarkable and should comwe in handy in the free for all out of the gate the Derby usually gives us. With his pedigree, he should only get better with age and distance. But you're right, its really too early to separate the men from the boys even barring injury.

19 Sep 2009 7:14 PM
ZENYATTATHECHAMP

I'd love to see Barbaro's full 2 year old brother(Lentanor,sp?) in the Derby!!!!! He's going to have his maiden this fall, hopefully he'll break his maiden the first try!

19 Sep 2009 7:17 PM
Tracy

My pick is Lentenor,he is a special horse,just something about him.

19 Sep 2009 7:45 PM
NTS

Derby winner?  The Derby winner probably hasn't even started yet.  I'll go with two of the horses listed even making the Derby and both finishing up the track.  Dublin and D'Funnybone look the best to me so far but it's September!  Maybe if they move the Derby up 6 months and shorten it by a half a mile I could see giving a few of these horses a chance.  

19 Sep 2009 7:48 PM
dsh

Jackson bend the only horse to beat d'funnybone

19 Sep 2009 7:59 PM
R. Harden

I found a cool site that seems to be following 2yos everywhere at www.twitter.com/derbycontenders. Don't know if this is something Churchill is doing, but it identifies lots of nice babies.

Regarding the comment that the eventual winner probably hasn't raced yet, I looked a few months ago and found that the majority of Derby starters in recent years had made their first starts by Sept. 15th.

19 Sep 2009 8:19 PM
Ida Lee

Well, let's see. This year I watched all the KD prep races religiously. I had my favorites, to wit: The Pamplemousse, I Want Revenge, Old Fashioned, Dunkirk, Freisan Fire, etc etc etc  Need I say more? I'm afraid to name any favorite. If it wasn't for the wonderful "Birds" and, of course, the Queen Rachel Alexandra, this would be a really depressing racing season. Maybe after the BC, I'll start thinking about the KD. Right now, I'm just happy that at least Freisan Fire is back in training and Pyro, Vineyard Haven and Regal Ransom are back looking great.

19 Sep 2009 8:28 PM
EKrueg

Mine That Bird, Big Brown, Street Sense and, Giacomo had all ran in a race by this time. I think next years Derby winner has already won. I like D'Funnybone but I don't see him going 1/4 Then I say Dublin. Lucas is back!

19 Sep 2009 8:40 PM
meleah

Lentenor is the one!!!

19 Sep 2009 8:49 PM
jim sanders

Mission Impazible was awesome @ Keeneland and Churchill I hope he shows up

19 Sep 2009 8:54 PM
CaitlynS

No one has even thought about Backtalk. I believe that he will get better with age and distance. He has had nothing but bad trips, so have we really seen what he can do? Plus he is a come from behind horse, and it seems like that was a good thing for Street Sense, and Mine That Bird recently... Dont count him out if he makes it to the race.

I would like to see how Lentenor runs because from what I have seen of him, he seems pretty special.

19 Sep 2009 9:20 PM
ks

The Derby winner isn't in this list.  If I knew who it really was, I'd be a millionaire by now.  Racing just doesn't work that way any more.  Street Sense was the exception to the rule in the past 10 years, and that was because he was more talented than he was credited for.

19 Sep 2009 9:50 PM
Greg J.

    In a perfect world?  A Stone cold Exacta in the 2010 Kentucky Derby?

1. Lentenor

2. Backtalk

Two of the most popular horses of our generation, Barbaro and Smarty Jones, Well, Could you imagine if a Brother and a Son of these two  actually finished one, two in the Derby?

Stranger things have happened...

19 Sep 2009 9:54 PM
Cassidy

"and it's all Lentenor, in a sublime performance...." :)

19 Sep 2009 9:56 PM
demal91

My pick for the 2010 is LENTENOR thas my big horse!!!!

19 Sep 2009 9:57 PM
Cowboy Bob

D'Funnybone looks great right now but there is plently of time for Dutrow to screw him up. Looking for Lucky is in good hands.

19 Sep 2009 10:09 PM
MsComeonNow

Derby winner has not started yet..

19 Sep 2009 10:13 PM
Nina

I personally think Take Charge (formerly known as Vallenzeri) will win the Kentucky Derby :P haha

19 Sep 2009 10:22 PM
Brian A.

Dublin, Lukas back at the Derby would be great!

19 Sep 2009 10:50 PM
DMG

Rare is the two-year-old which can exhibit both the precocity to win at two and the stamina and soundness to go on to win the Derby.  However, we've also seen that the winner of the Derby is not necessarily the top three-year-old.  2010's top three year-old has not yet surfaced.

19 Sep 2009 11:08 PM
R. Harden

It's Take Control, not Take Charge.

19 Sep 2009 11:15 PM
Fire Slam

Thanks to Richard the Mig, Backtalk has now lost.

He ran his race trying to get into position. Still ran on to finish 4th.

Cant take nothing away from Dublin. Reminds me of his father--Afleet Alex. Sits and waits, and then when its time to go, he gives everything he has, and does not stop coming.He wants to win.

Amos has said Backtalk needs to learn to change leads, and needs two turns. Will be fun to watch these two develop.

As for D-Funnybone, Prado, Dutrow will mess it up. Also, classic distance is way out of reach. Enjoy him while you can. Once Prado messes up, Kent Sleepy Desx will get the call, and it will get even worse.

19 Sep 2009 11:31 PM
trasha

A big thank you as I tried to put Vallenzeri into my stable and of course, there was no match.  It was such a great name! And Azeri was one of the best.  

20 Sep 2009 12:30 AM
Louisville Larry

Backtalk or D'Funnybone - whichever one of their connections doesn't ruin them by going to the West Coast in the BC Juvy on the stuff in grandmother's attic.

20 Sep 2009 12:33 AM
geronimo2123

I agree it is much too soon to worry about the Derby.

However, Jackson Bend has already beaten D'funnybone and has won 4 straight stakes races. His running style is more condusive to 2 turns, regardless of pedigree (he is a take back horse with tactical speed). He ran down D'Funnybone at Calder in the Gomez. And I think D' Funnybone is head and shoulders above any other 2 year old right now, including Dublin.

They said Musket Man would tank at 2 turns, but his ability to relax carried him to win at 9 furlongs, and show twice in TC races. Jackson Bend is the same style runner who hates to lose.

It would be easier to pick the BC Juvie, and to me Jackson Bend and D'Funnybone are to the top 2 two year olds based on accomplishments. If JB wins the In Reality and sweeps the Florida Stallion series, he may be my favorite to win the BC Juvie.

20 Sep 2009 1:58 AM
HJF

I picked up Dublin for the reason that his sire (Afleet Alex) didn't won the Roses for the problems he had. Then he goes on to win the Preakness, the Belmont and (as he's son Dublin) the Hopeful at 2. Dublin's dam, Classy Mirage,Won the GI Ballerina at 5, and won four others graded stakes from 3 to 5. She also won one other listed Stakes, and placed in the GI's Ballerina and Beldame at 4, and other 4 graded stakes.

Thats proove a great pedigree, durability and stamina (Belmont & Beldame) .His Roman Dosage Profile of  3-1-6-0-0 (10) isn’t exquisite but who cares.

My strong second choice is Lookin at Lucky. His red hot sire is Smart Strike, Half-brother to Canadian Triple Crown Winner Dance Smartly and sire of HOY Curlin (Belmont Stakes, Dubai WC,etc). LAL also have great muscle, big bone, and a high Roman Dosage Profile of 10-4-12-0-0 (26).

I see D’funnybone as great miler, who shows precocity. Backtalk is a good horse, but he doesn’t have that wow factor. He is a winner, but not a super one. Mi Sueno is a great filly with impeccable pedigree, but she has to prove on boys. Aspire, Western Smoke, Dixie Band and Aikenite appear to be very classy 2 year olds, but they still have a lot to prove, especially Aikenite. Finally is the fast Jackson Bend, who is the only colt to beat D’funnybone. My problem with him is that his pedigree is  fully loaded of sprint influence, which only assures him great success in the 7 furlongs borderline. Maybe the next Kentucky Derby Champ hasn’t started yet, will see.

20 Sep 2009 4:56 AM
Michael Beach

A horse in Thoroughbred Legends Racing Stable http://tlrstable.com

20 Sep 2009 8:15 AM
MDFANOFRACING

I have to agree, it's way to early to be picking derby horses. This years Derby ended up being a battle of the uninjured. I am gonna wait till spring before I choose a favorite and even then, injury can take them out of play.

I would really like to see where Lentenor ends up. He has been working regular and increasing his distance gradually, I would like to think he is close to his first start, and on track in his training in relation to big brother Barbaro. Dont get me wrong, I love Nicanor, he should be back in training now, it's been 60 days, and always will, but I think Lentenor will end up having a lot more talent.

Speaking of The Pamplemousse & I Want Revenge (great name).. any word on their progress? will they ever make it back to the track? I had The Pamplemousse as my Derby horse before the "lession" on his leg, what an incredible runner he was. Watch his OCB clip on you tube it's awesome.

20 Sep 2009 8:21 AM
Karen Line, PA

LENTENOR.

20 Sep 2009 8:33 AM
lobieb

H e hasn't raced as yet but Lentanor is the one.  When you save a lot in the tank and don't race them into the ground in their two year old season you have a better chance of even making it to the Derby.  Look at last year all the favorites fell by the wayside before the big day.

20 Sep 2009 8:34 AM
MDFANOFRACING

Isn't vallenzari's new name Take Control..not Take Charge?

20 Sep 2009 8:35 AM
Draynay

If I HAD to pick a horse right now I would go with Dublin.  Wayne may have something very special we will know in March.

20 Sep 2009 9:16 AM
BobbyD

I like Mission Impazible too. I believe he is an Unbridled Song. The way he finishes up. LOOK OUT!

20 Sep 2009 9:22 AM
brettzky99

Obviously at this point in time, Lentenor has about a 1 in 30,000 chance of winning the derby (just like evry other 2 year old).  However, his bloodstock, has brilliantly over performed since Barbaro won the derby.  The Dynaformer cross with grandaughters of Mr.Prospector is an extremely hot mating, and most lines are now nicked AA+, whreas I believe most were closer to C, in 2006.  Gozzip Girl and Rescue Squad, are two solid examples.

20 Sep 2009 10:14 AM
Lmaris

I do get a chuckle at the comments of how special Lentanor is.  Doubt few of his supporters could pick him out in the paddock without a program.  Other than his famous sibling there is no reason to expect him to be special.  Nicanor has shown he likes the lawn, better than dirt, but is still just a modest allowance horse.

Far too early to pick a derby horse.  Doubt more than one or two will even start.

20 Sep 2009 12:14 PM
olin

Jackson Bend. The only reason he didn't make the top of most lists is because he races at Calder and most folks don't know about him.

His Beyers are consistently phenomenal and he is super game and was already won 3 stakes, with improving beyers each time.

His connections have kept him in FL to run in non-graded stakes, rather than take him to places that have graded stakes. But FL will start having excellent graded stakes this winter. Maybe then, Jackson Bend will become more known.

20 Sep 2009 1:44 PM
Driftin Sage

And again I say, the reason many of them may not make it to the Derby 2010 because of injuries....is due to running them so hard tooooooo early in their lives.  Give em time to grow more and get stronger!

20 Sep 2009 2:20 PM
Greg J.

Lmaris,

     I would beg to differ with you comment, "Doubt few of his supporters could pick him out in the paddock without a program."  Everyone who has mentioned Lentenor, Me included, I am positive EVERYONE would know exactly which horse he is when they saw him in the Paddock.  Since he has yet to race, Yes, Like Brettzky stated, He has long odds like all others, But, He has the Pedigree, He actually has TWO famous sibling's that are/were pretty good on the track(While Nicanor is injured, One cannot dismiss that he has shown to be very talented, 5 starts, 2 firsts, 2 seconds, And he was the favorite going into the Virginia Derby).  Bet against Lentenor at your own peril. Chuckle all you want, We shall see who is laughing when it is all said and done...

20 Sep 2009 3:19 PM
Ranagulzion

I'm gtting on D'Funnybone train right here right now.  this horse is for real.  His pedigree on the top side suggests stamina limitations but the multiple doses of Secretariat and Northern Dancer could carry him a long way.  Rick Dutrow as his trainer makes the trip to the derby even more promising.

There is another 2YO worth watching  called Bulls And Bears.

20 Sep 2009 4:01 PM
Star Quality

Already started- Dublin, has pedigree to go the distance

Not started- Take Charge, also has pedigree to go the distance and be something special.

20 Sep 2009 4:36 PM
Lou in TX

Let's see how Lentnor does in his first race. From what I've heard rumored, he runs a lot like Barbaro. He seems to be all business because he hasn't gotten all the attention Nicanor got since he was born. Nicanor became the baby after Barbaro was put down and he seemed to sense he was special. Probably from all the attention he got from everybody. He probably has had more expectations put on him than any horse I've know. Seems everybody wanted him to pick up where Barbaro left off. No pressure there!! We'll have to see how he does when he comes back to racing again. We shouldn't count him out yet. Of course, not for the Derby since he's already 3.

I agree with a lot of you, it's way too early to even think about the Derby horses.

20 Sep 2009 5:59 PM
Deacon

Picking a Derby winner 8 plus months in advance is a real stretch. It's quite possible the 2010 Derby winner hasn't even raced yet. I know this just fun and all but many of these 2 year olds that are good now will peak way too soon and have nothing left for their 3 year old campaign. I think this is why no horse other then Street Sense has won the Breeders Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby. Obviously many 2 year olds are more developed and older then some others, and next year is when it really starts to count. It's all about the breeding and stud fees in the years to come.  

20 Sep 2009 6:10 PM
Rechelle

You missed one, a colt that will be starting this fall who has the pedigree to run and win the Derby.  Lentenor will be a contender for the Kentucky Derby.  Matz has stated, as has Roy Jackson, that Lentenor is coming along well and will be starting this fall.  He is more like Barbaro than Nicanor is.  There is no reason to think that Lentenor won't make it to the Derby.

20 Sep 2009 6:51 PM
The Markster

Anyone that picked Dublin ahead of Aspire didn't watch the Hopeful. Check the trip on Aspire.......

The question is, will Aspire want to go 1 1/4 in May (Tale Of The Cat) . Maybe not, but I am pretty sure Dublin will not.

Good luck with your future bets.  

20 Sep 2009 7:04 PM
olivia

i looove dublin! but i also love d'funnybone! theyre both great!=]

20 Sep 2009 7:07 PM
some on who knows

Dublin, Truly Special...Lukas is back baby!

20 Sep 2009 7:54 PM
jedinite

lentenor will do it

20 Sep 2009 9:15 PM
Mike from Alpena, Michigan

Make Music For Me-2010 Kentucky Derby Champ.

20 Sep 2009 9:21 PM
Art

It's sad when 'some on who knows' cant even get his name typed in correctly...

20 Sep 2009 9:38 PM
rs125989

Lookin At Lucky is horse that can probably do well at 1 1/4 mile. He hasn't had a tough race yet but he has been exceptional in the races that he has won. He seems like a horse that can be contender come first Saturday in May if the connections don't overwork the horse before the Derby.

20 Sep 2009 10:18 PM
nvsally

I'd like to see Lentenor on that list.

XXOO

20 Sep 2009 10:35 PM
R. Harden

Anyone expecting to see Jackson Bend and D' Funnybone in the Breeders' Cup will likely be disappointed. Neither are nominated.

20 Sep 2009 11:35 PM
Julie L.

I can't believe that Draynay and I have picked the same horse if we had to choose now...Dublin! I loved his sire and would love to see Dublin do well in the Classics but I also will have to keep my eye on Backtalk but must also keep in mind that the actual Derby winner may not have even started yet.

21 Sep 2009 1:29 AM
SusanW

Glad we're not picking our horses for the "Road to the Roses" yet. I'd have half an empty fantasy stable. And please, no Quality Road type to be shoved down my barn because everybody says so.Except for Lentenor, I'd add him.

21 Sep 2009 9:02 AM
Joanne

LENTENOR!!!!!

21 Sep 2009 9:17 AM
Billy's Empire

The horse to beat is going to be Dublin. If there is a better 2 year old, it has not raced yet.

21 Sep 2009 9:19 AM
Alex PB

Dublin's evaluation for a racing classsic should not be evaluated without a check on his relatives.  His daddy, Afleet Alex, owned that rare, blinding 4-6 stride acceleration that displayed as a superior runner.

Alex won the Hopeful at two and the Belmont at three (what sires  have done that?) Alex's dam, Maggy Hawk, is  a daughter of Hawkster, holder of the Turf world record for 1-1/2 miles (G1T). (Yes, it was faster than Secretariat's Belmont Stakes  world record on the dirt.)

Dublin's dam, Classy Mirage, reinforces his speed and stamina, and traces bottom line to the great foundation mares, Home By Dark and Sunday Evening.

I would be interested in other noteworthy pedigrees which surely will evolve.

21 Sep 2009 10:34 AM
AMY ROONEY

I am not so sure that the year of the ladies will end on Dec 31.

 mi sueno can only improve, beating necessary evil who beat colts impressed me.

If I have to pick from the list probably Backtalk. Some young horses do regress in training, could be many reasons, although I am not sure he can stretch out, but at this stage it is hard to tell who can. mi sueno has distance all over her pedigree, but that does not necessarily mean she will like distance as well.

 Maybe the derby winner has not raced yet, or maybe has not come across the pond yet. I sure thought bold arrangement was gonna git 'er done in 86 but, it was still a good race.

21 Sep 2009 10:58 AM
CURLINLOVER

Dublin! He's Afleet Alex's son! Will get this one for his dad who got the other two legs of the triple crown!

Go Dublin!!!!!!!!!11

21 Sep 2009 11:41 AM
Greg J.

     Well, By reading the comments posted, It looks like you should have included "Lentenor" in your Poll. He has the most votes by far, Pretty incredible considering he has yet to race, I love the fact that alot are pulling for Lentenor anyways,  Can you imagine if it happens to come true?  Talk about an uplifting story that this sport needs in the worst way...

21 Sep 2009 11:48 AM
Bob D.

I thought I was spoiled having Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Hard Spun & Barbaro all coming out of my proverbial back yard (Philly and Delaware Park).  So now next year there's the possibility of Backtalk (S. Jones), Dublin (Afleet Alex) & Lentenor (Dynaformer > Barbaro) running in the big show - pinch me!

21 Sep 2009 12:33 PM
ScottP

I got one for ya....Winslow Homer!!  Broke Maiden at the Spa and heading to the Champagne...Training like a monster!!!  Stay Tuned.....

21 Sep 2009 1:09 PM
Susie

Dublin is my pick.

I hope to God we don't have to put a name like D'funnybone down in the annals of Derby history.

21 Sep 2009 1:31 PM
CURLINLOVER

I understand the sentimentality of the Lentanor votes; but let's be realistic and vote for horses with some experience and promise of a chance.  I loved Barbaro myself; but the Lentanor "thing' is just sentimentality.

21 Sep 2009 1:41 PM
GinnieJ

A name with "Dixie" in it has to be the one ... and is a gelding.

Dixie Band

www.pedigreequery.com/dixie+band4

21 Sep 2009 2:31 PM
Greg J.

FYI,

   It is not a necessity to have experience for the Kentucky Derby Winner at this point of their two year old campaign.  Some examples from the last ten years. Big Brown first race was Sept. 3, Barbaro broke his maiden on first attempt, Oct. 3., Smarty Jones first race was Nov. 9., Funny Cide first raced Sept. 8., Monarchos had two starts as a two year old, Fusaichi Pegasus had 1 start as a two year old.  So, It is likely next year's derby winner hasn't even raced yet...

21 Sep 2009 3:33 PM
claudeV

Mission Impazible will be a superstar

21 Sep 2009 4:13 PM
da3hoss

D'Funnybone is a great name...like DaHoss!

He's got great Classic influence...linebred Secretariat & Nashua, with Roberto, Swaps, Buckpasser (Tom Fool), In Reality...there's no lack of pedigree foundation here..

Seattle Slew ran the fastest 2 year-old mile ever...means nothing about staying power to be brilliant as a 2 year-old.

21 Sep 2009 4:28 PM
da3hoss

Lentenor lovers...you keep dreamin'...isn't that what it's all about? You don't need a flashy 2 year-old career to win in the classics... I mean, look at Curlin and Summer Bird!!! ;-)

21 Sep 2009 4:35 PM
Rechelle

The only way that I can see Lentenor not running in the Derby is if he takes after Nicanor and prefers turf over dirt.  But even then, I think he'll be there and he's got the pedigree to win the Derby (after all, same lineage as Barbaro who won it impressively).  Lentenor will be there and will be a contender.  Matz has always been conservative with his 2yos and he's going to be even more so with this family.  Once Lentenor gets going, he should be unstoppable, like Nicanor has been on turf this season.  Can't wait to see Nicanor come back in the next month or so and finally face some stakes competition.  He's made easy work of his competition so far.

21 Sep 2009 6:54 PM
christy tate

i agree with everyone who thinks lentenor might have a chance. like D'funnybone alot. just keep our fingers crossed they stay healthy and can race in the spring.

21 Sep 2009 7:00 PM
Golden_Given

Backtalk, if he's able to stay healthy. Otherwise, I think this is the year a son of Harlan's Holiday takes the Derby.  

21 Sep 2009 7:37 PM
Greg J.

ScottP & ClaudeV,

     Good Call with Winslow Homer(Great looking Grey!) and Mission Impazible, Both loaded with potential...

21 Sep 2009 8:13 PM
Shawn P

Would be great if the poll results actually predict the outcome.

Mike A, IC sure called out Squires for using one of his nicknames, be careful. :-)

Huh, didn't know DN was on a first name basis with Wayne. Hope that pick wasn't the KOD on the colt.

21 Sep 2009 8:29 PM
LyndaP31

I think it's going to be a horse we know nothing about yet.

21 Sep 2009 8:36 PM
Jon

These horses havent even ran further than 7 furlongs for the most part.  How can you pick the winner of a race thats 10 furlongs?  Come on, Lets first try to figure out who will win the Juvinile.  I bet half of us couldnt even get that one right.

21 Sep 2009 8:43 PM
JimW

Obviously no one knows who will actually make it to the Derby and who won't so we're picking from this group assuming they all make it. Looking at Lucky has looked very good. Garrett Gomez is very high on him. He rates well and has the breeding to get the distance and if Baffert thinks he a Derby horse he will know how to get him ready.

21 Sep 2009 11:11 PM
Shawn P

Jon, seeing how there has been only one horse to win both the Derby and Juv AND the BC is on synthetics which hasn't produceed a Derby winner yet?

Figuring that some of the best of these may not even GO to the BC?

Lets just say its all speculation for most, wishful thinking and hoping for a few.

NONE of them have run 10 F before the Derby, so we have to rely on pedigree and all of the rest that those buying a prospect and managing them on the Derby trail do.

21 Sep 2009 11:53 PM
Tim

Lukas is back with a loaded stable full of expensive babies just like the mid nineties and Dublin will go off as one off the favorites but Lukas will run three or four in the Derby and win with an overlay like he used to do. The one colt who really caught my eye was Zito's Thomas Got Even. The final time was deceiving because the sloppy sealed track that day was pretty tricky and he was scheduled to debut on the grass so he didn't run under ideal conditions but his race was visually impressive and he is bred for distance. He may be the real deal being well bred and drawing off to win by daylight even though he ran very greenly through the stretch. Note he ducked in at the eighth pole instead of drifting out so he wasn't tired. Should improve with distance and make alot of noise in the near future. definately one one to watch but doubt Zito runs him on the Proride surface.

22 Sep 2009 2:08 AM
Geronimo2123

According to both Dutrow and owner Paul Pompa, Jr. D'Funnybone IS BC nominated and is 50-50 to go there if he comes out of the Champagne OK.

D'Funnybone is out of a sprinter but is a doublecross of Secretariat up top and carries the Northern Dancer-Bold Ruler lines. On the bottom his damsire is Woodman, who is considered one of the better classical sires in the past 25 years who has sired runners who have won the Belmont Stakes, the Preakness, The Canadian Triple Crown, The Arc de le Triomphe and so on and so on...

AWD is 8.3 furlongs, which is comparable to AP Indy, except Woodman (who had Buckpasser as damsire) has sired more TC winners than AP Indy, and was the damsire of a Canadian TC winner (2003).

Based on his form and pedigree, D'Funnybone will be a good miler who will stretch out to 10f due to class and form. As for Jackson Bend, he will go at least 9 furlongs based on form alone. His sire won several stakes at 8.5 furlongs and JB has the form of Musket Man--so FORGET THE PEDIGREE.

22 Sep 2009 2:14 AM
da3hoss

I liked Discreetly Mine's race, too, I think he would have been closer at the end with a little better trip and he has a nice long stride.

22 Sep 2009 7:18 AM
Greg J.

Shawn P.,

      Good Points...

Also,  We should probably get notice this week on Lentenor's first race,  Should be interesting on what The Jackson's and Mr. Matz decide on his first challenge!  Dirt or Turf and what distance/track...

22 Sep 2009 7:26 AM
da3hoss

And I really liked how Aspire moved through all that traffic, green but game, and was gaining on Dublin...some nice babies coming up to enjoy watching.

22 Sep 2009 7:32 AM
Soldier Course

Backtalk - so I can quit crying whenever I think about Belmont Stakes 2004.

22 Sep 2009 8:16 AM
CURLINLOVER

Sure, this is fun. Nothing wrong with dreaming and anticipating! But way too early.

As already mentioned, many horses unraced at two come into their prime at three and don't even peak until after the Derby! Remember Curlin? Sure, you do! He was unraced at two and only had three preps before the Derby; sure, he was packed in among the cavalry of 20 horses with no experience; but remember - come Preakness - that from then on it was onward and upward as the year(s) progressed.  He ended up the toprated horse in the world twice; same for HOY! Many horses need to develop before they're tested. It scares me to think how many good two-year olds are pushed too soon to be ready by Derby day - only to falter there or never do anything again.  In Curlin's case, we got to enjoy him for two years - same for a slew of others - especially geldings for obvious reasons; fun nevertheless! Too bad Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, Hard Spun, Street Sense, etc. couldn't continue for various reasons - mostly because of retirement or injury.  In this world of horse racing, we really do need the stars; and we need to let the young ones develop into sturdy horses before pushing them.  This year, so many horses with much talent - so many horses never making it to Derby Day! I hope we can improve this sport and enjoy its stars - male and female - for more than just a year.  But we need patience! How wonderful to have a bunch of talented females to look forward to this year - and next?

22 Sep 2009 9:32 AM
Vespone

Tim - just a note about Thomas Got Even. He was an MTO for that race, so he ran because it came off the turf. The horses that he beat were meant for the turf.

22 Sep 2009 10:07 AM
Shawn P

Since we're talking about potential DERBY WINNERS, Curlin isn't pertinent.

The last horse to win the Derby WITHOUT racing as a 2 year old was Apollo in 1882. Now THERE is a record/jinx to break.

Only 4 have won with less than 3 Derby Preps. Including one who hadn't won but ONE stakes race prior to the Derby but did win an Allowance as a 3 year old and a maiden special weight as a 2 year old. (makes one wonder about the quality of the competition.) 3 have won with 2 Derby Preps but raced more frequently as 2 year olds. So historically? Pretty tough task, once again depending on the field they face.

22 Sep 2009 11:03 AM
OLD TIMER

I agree with the Deacon above -- this is really pure speculation. But it is fun to do. There is a reason that the Breeder's Cup Juvenile has seldom produced a Derby winner and also note that the future wager mostly yields "All others" as the winner of the first pool.

Nevertheless I have a feeling that Bob Baffert will be back smelling roses again next year. He has some good ones and has been on a roll lately.

22 Sep 2009 12:10 PM
CURLINLOVER

CURLIN is pertinent to mention in the contrext of horses maturing later, Shawn! He may not have won the Derby, but he sure made up for it later. Lots of these horses discussed here we'll never hear about next year. So to mention any horse - Derby winner or not - IS pertinent in the context of discussing potential Derby winners 8 months early! Any experience or lack thereof as a two-year old is pertinent when discussing any Derby potentials!

22 Sep 2009 12:48 PM
AMY ROONEY

I know that for the movie "Secretariat", they want actors to bring it to life, but I cannot see john malkovich as lucien laurin.

How many two year olds at this time during the 70's were mentioned as potential derby winners?

quite a few, but no one saw Cannonero II.

22 Sep 2009 2:07 PM
JamesC

Does anyone know whats going on with Mission Impazible

22 Sep 2009 2:35 PM
Shawn P

My point exactly. Since Curlin HAD no experience as a 2 year old. Because it totally goes against historical data.

Lots of the jinxes have been broken but the non-starter as a two year old is 127 years old.

The problem is getting enough experience in them in the Derby preps, without wearing them out, to compete in a field of 20 over a distance NONE of them have gone before. Now if we're discussing the latter legs of the TC that's fine, but we aren't.

How can we take a horse who didn't win the Derby, maturing later in his career and fit a horse into his mold and connect it to picking a Derby horse that is almost impossible to pick anyway?

There have been lots of great horses who matured later and ALSO did NOT win the Derby

I guarantee you if Jackson had Curlin as a two year old the colt would have started at least one time. Otherwise you're playing catchup and cannot catch up in the short time before the Derby.

Maybe it won't be one on the list, maybe it will, depends on how they're managed. But I'll bet you it's one who starts as a 2 year old even if it's one who starts in December.

22 Sep 2009 2:36 PM
No LVR

Lintenor?  I see a Delaware or Phili in his future at best.  Plus Nicanor has me worried about the breeding line, bad legs, etc., as Nicanor has already been hurt twice.  

I guess this is what we get when there are no updates on FOB.  Though the last blog update was quite possibly the most boring update yet, with no news what so ever.  Lentor walked, Nicanor is doing okay, the baby is moving, no horse racing news at all.

It is all just getting so old, sorry everyone.

Finally, Lintenor is off to a slow start.  Matz isn't even talking about him yet, actually no one is to be honest.  There is a reason for this people.

I'm still on the look out for a Smart Strike horse to pop up before I make a pick.

22 Sep 2009 3:53 PM
B

Looking at lucky will be there!

22 Sep 2009 3:58 PM
Greg J.

No LVR,

    First off, Spell his name correctly, "Lentenor".  Second, As far as Nicanor being injured twice?  He grabbed a quarter in his first race and got a bone bruise.  As far as updates from Ron? What is he supposed to write about when one two year old is in training for his first race and Nicanor is healing up?  You write, "Lintenor is off to a slow start"  Do have a clue? How can a two year old training for his first race be off to a slow start?Please, If it is getting boring to you then don't follow their progress or at least educate yourself before writing a comment...

22 Sep 2009 4:24 PM
jlvssec

I'd be willing to bet that the winner isn't on the list, but has already run. I for one am keeping my eye out for Bulldogger, who was really impressive when breaking his maiden on Travers day.

22 Sep 2009 5:15 PM
Mike Relva

FIRM SLAM

Thr manner in which you trash riders,maybe you think you could do better!

22 Sep 2009 8:36 PM
Soldier Course

John Malkovich as Lucien Laurin? Where's the Pepto-Bismol?

22 Sep 2009 10:43 PM
TAMORK

None of these horses will win the Derby. Make sure to put them on the list of don't bet come the first Saturday in May.

22 Sep 2009 11:35 PM
derbyDAVE

In juvenile races emphasis is on speed. Because they are inexperienced and still maturing, it is rare you will see a horse win a race from off the pace.  But as the distance of the races increase and the newly turned three year olds gain valuable experience, speed becomes of less importance.  Rather it is the horse who has exhibited class and the ability to win from off the pace that has the best chance of capturing the roses.  Dublin beat a decent field of maidens while rating off a wicked pace.  He came right back and showed his class taking the Hopeful in a respectable time.  He doesn't have to run another race as a two year old, but if he is not your Derby fave then you guys should just throw your money!

23 Sep 2009 3:41 AM
stanley marcinkowski, Plowville, Pa

Lookin At Lucky

23 Sep 2009 6:17 AM
schabelli

I'll go with a horse draynay doesn't pick with his first 20 or 30 choices. History has proven he's wrong at least that many times as he changes his mind day to day.

23 Sep 2009 8:11 AM
Jay

Of course a horse from the great Birdstone will win the derby and a different Birdstone horse will win the preakness and yet another different Birdstone horse will win the belmont.

23 Sep 2009 8:45 AM
da3hoss

Soldier Course, you think John Malkovich as Lucien Laurin is bad, how about a Quarter Horse as Secretariat?  Where's the Pepto-Bismol Xtra-strength!? (QH's are wonderful creatures, but not as Secretariat)

23 Sep 2009 2:11 PM
AnneM

Winslow Homer was a very impressive winner at Saratoga - I would watch out for him next year.

23 Sep 2009 3:51 PM
Julie L.

My theory of a horse's name influencing whether they will be a triple crown winner or not must be used again for me this coming classics year so at this point the horses with possible TC winners names are:

1. Dublin

2. Backtalk

3. Aspire

Any other names out there running right now that I don't know about that sound like a TC winner? If so then let me know.

23 Sep 2009 7:32 PM
Ida Lee

Scratch my above comment. I was way too negative. I also adore the Barbaro family and seeing Lentenor in the KD would be perfect and a win would be indeed "sublime". Of course, it does not matter to me, and I'm sure to those who love this horse, what he does on the track. He'll be loved either way.

23 Sep 2009 7:36 PM
Soldier Course

da3hoss:

Yes, I saw the press release about the Quarter Horse "Secretariat" and commented about it on another thread a couple of weeks ago. None of this bodes well for the movie. If it can't be done to perfection, don't do it. Secretariat deserves nothing less. Thanks.

23 Sep 2009 8:50 PM
slewofdamascus

Hard to believe Jackson Bend is ranked so low. Typical Florida bias, but this hoss can run, some have compared him to Musket Man.

If JB is similarly forgotten in the BC (seems hard to fathom), best to jump on it in a big way. He's probably got a huge shot.

I have been waiting for a colt from Woodbine to race back, a stakes winner first out, if I remember corrrectly, at 5 furlongs.

He won the Victoria Stakes ($150k), I see now. Back in June.

Has not raced back, but you might want to add this one to your lists - olredlgetcha - and watch his only race if you get the chance. What's scary about him is that he really didn't have a clue as to what he was doing, making his powerful win all the more amazing, and leading one to believe that there's a great deal more to be seen in the future, potentially.

23 Sep 2009 9:19 PM
JimW

No LVR,

Smart Strike already popped up. Looking at Lucky.

23 Sep 2009 10:51 PM
Soldier Course

da3hoss:

Disney's had a change at the helm quite recently. Wonder how that will effect the movie? Sometimes a change like that means slash & burn for some ongoing projects. Let's hope not.

23 Sep 2009 11:15 PM
rjppdp

I think we have a potential derby winner in sydney's candy. I think this horse has the potential to go far.

23 Sep 2009 11:38 PM
CURLINLOVER

Shawn, good point made by you about CURLIN and Jackson!

It sure will be interesting to see whose predictions turn out right and how experience as a two-year old plays out as well!

Let's enjoy all the gerat horses and this wonderful sport.

24 Sep 2009 9:33 AM
wendyg

Other than the fact that Lentenor is the little brother of Barbaro, there is nothing special about him above these other horses until he hits the track.  He is a sentimental favorite at best.  Don't get me wrong he's pretty, and apparently working great, but like others have said, he hasn't even run yet and survived it much less beaten anybody.

24 Sep 2009 10:45 AM
UNDERware

Dublin has the foundation and credentials to win the derby.  But as with any two year old at this early stage of their career something seems to go wrong from now to then.  The connections can only hope their horse even makes it to the big dance.  If I was the owner of Dublin I would let him run one more time this year either the Champaign or Breeders Futurity, then put him away for the winter, come back in the spring and give him two prep races.  But let's not forget this award called Eclipse that steers the connections to run in the Breeders Cup, which is a detriment to these precocious animals.

24 Sep 2009 3:14 PM
whitney

from the horses that have run so far I looooooove Jackson Bend--watched him since his debut(he came in a flying second and has won all since) and Jxn Bend is a good horse with guts and quite a turn of foot...and he beat D'Funnybone then i pick John Scott and Lookin at Lucky..........

24 Sep 2009 4:32 PM
Soldier Course

Julie L.:

Interesting comment about horse names and the Triple Crown. Not long ago on another thread, I commented that none of the eleven Triple Crown winners had a goofy name. All of the winners' names sounded appropriate for that accomplishment. I also think Smarty Jones is a great Triple Crown name.  

In my previous comment, the word "effect" should be "affect".

24 Sep 2009 8:33 PM
Julie L.

Soldier Course:

I think you are right about the name Smarty Jones, I also think that Real Quiet and Curlin had the right ring to them but by far the best was 2 years ago with my favorite for that classic year - War Pass. Any others out there?

24 Sep 2009 10:03 PM
Port Stanley

Soldier Course - no offense to anyone, but Seattle Slew is a pretty goofy name imho. Sure, it sounds all noble now, because of what he did as a race horse and as a sire, but it's no Secretariat or War Admiral or Affirmed.

A lot of people hated the name Smarty Jones as well. Not me, however, it was irrelevant to me as a potential Triple Crown winner, I played Birdstone in the Belmont.

24 Sep 2009 11:42 PM
Soldier Course

Julie L.:

Names worthy of Triple Crown:

Wild Again

Sea Hero

Barbaro

Casual Lies

Afleet Alex

Skip Away

Risen Star

Slew o' Gold

Chief's Crown

Imperialism

Pleasant Colony

Riva Ridge

Carry Back

Yum! Brands

25 Sep 2009 12:00 AM
Soldier Course

Seattle Slew - Oh, but how it rolls off the tongue! I just love it.

Smarty Jones - was lovingly named after his human maternal grandmother, Mildred, mother of Patricia Chapman.

25 Sep 2009 12:04 AM
Don

I'm guessing Lentenor will start at Delaware Park on Oct, 10th going 6 furlongs.

If he does good, maybe another race around here, then off to Florida.

I don't know when Matz moves to Florida. But hoping Lentenor races at Gulfsteam, Keeneland, then at Churchill Downs.

25 Sep 2009 12:37 AM
Soldier Course

Port Stanley:

Seattle Slew's name reminds me of Barbra Streisand's great line from the movie "Hello Dolly", when she's talking about Horace Vandergelder's cash register:

"... it may be lumpy, but it rings!"

25 Sep 2009 9:04 AM
Julie L.

Soldier Course:

I agree with all except Yum! Brands. Are there any other two year olds running now with potential triple crown names? Seattle Slew at first was strange to say but it rolled beautifully off the tongue and did have Slew in there. I remember an article written after Slew had won the Derby and that's when I was convinced it was a triple crown name, the article was titled "The Night Before Seattle Slew the Derby."

25 Sep 2009 3:52 PM
Brian

I picked Dublin before his first start.  To confirm go to Afleet Alex under Maiden Watch and look at his blog.

26 Sep 2009 12:10 AM
KP

I really hope Lentenor makes the Derby so that whatever horse I back gets better odds. You know if Lentenor makes it there will be massive media coverage and special and that will get massive money from the public.

26 Sep 2009 4:10 AM
RobfromBMore

Right now, I like Dublin. He has got that stride like his Daddy's.

Afleet Alex looked like he was loping along and then pow, he would just blow by you. Dublin will probably be shut down for the winter after the Champagne.

Dublin doesn't even have to win the Champagne and he is probably close to graded stakes earnings for the KY Derby now. Wayne can just concentrate in 2010 to get him fit for next year with his Derby preps. I wouldn't go to Gulfstream though, the track there was too fast and hurtful for the horses on the Triple Crown Trail.

I would like to see Dublin go the Arkansas or Louisiana Derby route.

26 Sep 2009 6:01 AM
Sarah

I agree with Brett. There were so many strong looking contenders in 09 but didn't make it near the time of the Derby because of injuries.

27 Sep 2009 7:28 PM
dr.fager

The derby winner is obvious by now, not only has he won,he also has ran big in a stakes race, and has closed without much effort and  lost.   that horse is bulls and bears, lets chock up two for the one time derby favorite. holy bull, i guess he also believes in redemtion.

28 Sep 2009 1:57 AM
Billy's Empire

Horse has not raced yet, but the name is READY TO STRIKE!!.

HAL WIGGINS WILL HAVE HIM READY AT THE FALL CHURCHILL MEET.

28 Sep 2009 3:33 PM
Saxtonhill

Well, it's getting to be the time of year to really look at those maiden races and initial allowance condition races for improving horses---those later maturing types that win and/or after encountering traffic problems, finish with interest and seem undaunted by kick back or racing in tight quarters.  

I also look for horses that seem to learn and mentally improve in their second and third starts.  

The better horses are usually athletic, efficiently-constructed physical specimens, they're usually intelligent also.

29 Sep 2009 9:09 AM
derbyDAVE

Take my word on this, Discreetly Mine is your Breeders Cup Juvenile winner. In his first couple races he's shown raw natural speed a juvenile needs to have.  Although it took him three tries to finally break his maiden, he was game in every one of those.  Then the connections opted to run him against heavily favored D'funnybone in the Futurity.  Though D'funnybone got the best of him, there were positive things to take from the race.  First he was a clear-cut second, seven lengths in front of the third place horse.  Also, and most importantly, he's shown a new dimension... coming from off the pace and finishing.  Oh yeah, and his pedrigree couldn't be any better- by Mineshaft out of the Private Account mare Pretty Discreet, making her a half to Discreet Cat.  The sky's the limit for this exciting prospect!

29 Sep 2009 4:29 PM
Linda in Texas

You can take Mi Sueno off the list. She just suffered a serious

injury while running out during training and it is probably/possibly at best career ending, and she is only 2. A shame for sure. I found a horse i wanted to cheer for. I still will, though mainly to hope she heals successfully.

30 Sep 2009 1:02 PM
Householder

LOOKIN AT LUCKY

02 Oct 2009 7:01 PM
The Bid

Julie L. ..............D'Funnybone... not another name needs to be muttered out of ANYONE's mouth/text...He WILL be ready by May (hopefully and healthy), then his "gettin' the distance will come into play in Ark. in Feb.-Mar. Dublin can be muttered also, for any son of ALEX will be included in ALL exacta's. Lentenor...THE DRAMA of IT ALL!!!!!

16 Oct 2009 3:42 PM
jclson(fan of nicanor)

LENTENOR ALL THE WAY.  

09 Nov 2009 12:47 PM
gogofan

   My one two finish for the Kentucky Derby are as follows: Lookin At Lucky and Lentenor (Barbaro and Nicanor's full brother).

09 Nov 2009 7:17 PM
John Horton, Jr.

Even though he didn't look that good in the his last race of the season at Keenland, if he take's to the conventional dirt I think Dixie Band will be a difficult horse to beat. I think he'll come back stronger and better as a 3yr.old than he finished his 2yr.old campaign. Right now though, on conventional dirt, D'Funnybone look's like the horse to beat given how impressive he looked in his prep races for the B.C. Juvenile. He certainly didn't take to the pro-ride surface, but has been very affective on dirt.

11 Nov 2009 6:56 PM
TripleCrownCoug

Mission Impazible is finally back on the work ticket.  Had a nice 3F breeze at Palm Meadows yesterday, 2nd fastest of the day.

30 Nov 2009 11:09 AM
Joker

Dublin will be there

09 Dec 2009 6:51 PM
blackgold77

Western Smoke

13 Jan 2010 12:09 PM
Macho_uno2001

Waiting for Bulls and Bears. Needs 2 races in him before derby but has been working awesome.

10 Mar 2010 6:50 PM

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